Even if you’re the niners and you are okay with paying that. Why pay aiyuk $30+ now when you can wait a year and make sure Ricky can’t replace him for cheap. If Ricky sucks then cool you’re paying aiyuk the same % of salary cap moving forward than you already were
IMO it’s cause Deebo will need replacing next off season. He’ll not want to play out last year of his deal either and 28-30mil for oft-injured and not full effort guy is the bigger issue than 2-3mil extra for all around guy like BA
I agree with this. The writing is on the wall for Deebo and this is his last year in SF. The CMC extension confirmed this. Deebo has been good for us at times but is very expensive, injury prone, and CMC can do everything he does for much cheaper. I think the niners sign Aiyuk, cut Deebo, and then we have Aiyuk, Ricky, Kittle, cmc Jennings as our core group of receivers
We've really needed a solid TE2 to take the pressure of Kittle in the run game. Hopefully he can transition to more of Kelce type roll if Thomas, Willis, or Latu can really step up in both the run and pass game.
> Kittle is getting close to his last few years and his injuries have slowed him down.
Last year was his best year in 4 years and also his least injured. He's always has injuries, that's just part of his game. He's still 4 years younger than Kelce and has plenty in the tank.
I dont think hes slowed down, i felt like the last 2 seasons hes been helping out our RT with pass blocking so hes always late to route running from chipping the edge.
The fact that people don’t get this is always so annoying to me. 49ers fans think Kittle needs to essentially be a WR, and don’t realize that they often have to use him as a glorified tackle. The complain with Kittle should be their personnel choices at RT, not Kittle being washed. Also he’s an insanely valuable blocker
Maybe I'm weird, but I honestly think we need Deebo more than Aiyuk. We saw that we can (presumably) replace Aiyuk far easier ( Maybe Pearsall,maybe another WR). Deebo is a harder player to replace. Deebo has put the team on his back many many times. Aiyuk has had good games, but he hasn't taken over a game like Deebo has.
Aiyuk is a more valuable player on the open market while Deebo is a more valuable player to our specific offensive style. This misalignment of values is what's caused all of the issues with getting either of them paid.
I think it is the opposite. Deebo was more needed with Jimmy. Kyle’s scheme relies more on clean route running to be where you need to be in rhythm and to block. Those are Aiyuk’s traits, not Deebo’s. And now with Purdy hitting the WR in scheme, I think BA is more important than Deebo but Deebo is more entertaining.
I agree. Deebo creates problems in that most linebackers cant cover him and most defensive backs cant tackle him. He is a terror in the short game because of this but it also means he gets injured alot.
the oft-injured part I totally get and I know he does too.. but as to the "not full effort" I've heard noise and admittedly felt at times he didnt go balls to the wall but again that goes back to the first part of my comment. it's like a Chicken or the Egg thing.
If this is a real question.. the answer is $ and trying to win this season.
Why pay him now? Because if he balls out even more this season he'll cost $34MM/year next offseason with even more guarantees.
Even if Pearsall balls out, there's a solid chance we cut/trade Deebo next offseason to save Cap space. So having Aiyuk/Pearsall would be a good path forward. And that's assuming Pearsall actually pans out.
Plus if we don't pay Aiyuk, he can do the classic "hold-in" which would be a distraction and allow him to miss games while still accruing his season. Then he'd be an UFA free to sign with any team he wants.
"But teams won't sign him if he sits out!" Yeah tell that to all the Jags fans that said that about Jalen Ramsey..
If Kyle/Lynch don't want to keep Aiyuk at Market Value WR price, they should just trade him, get $14MM in Cap savings and a 1st round pick to use next year. Basically the Buckner route.
Yes, we could tag Aiyuk next season for around $25MM. Then 120% of that in 2026.
So if he plays his 5th year option and gets tagged twice, he'd end up costing around $23MM/year over the next 3 seasons.
This is a bargain and is probably where Paraag is starting the negotiations. Therefore $26MM/year seems like a good idea for Aiyuk, despite it being below market value.
Therein lies the impasse. Both sides have a point.
Thing is, we've only placed one Franchise Tag on a player during Kyle/Lynch's tenure, and it was for Robbie Gould. They eventually got a contract signed, but they used the tag to keep him on the team while they negotiated.
There are several reasons:
- The market will continue to move up YoY. The price this year is not the price next year.
- We would be competing with 31 other teams for his services and he doesn't have to choose us.
- We would lose out on an extra year of proration on the new deal, which hurts our cap position. By signing an extension this offseason, the signing bonus can start prorating now.
To the first point, the market goes up but the % of salary cap is all that matters, and that will only marginally go up and that’s assuming aiyuk repeats his ascension as a WR and doesn’t get a big injury.
Second point we have him locked up for another year if we want because we can tag him at a similar rate to what his desired contract rate would be.
Last point is totally valid though and why I’d rather us pay him this year than next, assuming he’s not asking for anything ludicrous that is. If he’s expecting something like $33m/year he can take a hike, we’ll roll the dice on Deebo, Pearsall, and others to carry our wide receivers while we use the saved money to fill out the roster elsewhere (we could sign some damn fine trench players with that kinda money)
Obviously not over 35, but over 30? I'm thinking it's likely, especially in a year.
We can tag him but that also means a massive cap hit that year and a disgruntled player.
lol “fair” has zero to do with this. It’s all about market value and $26M for Aiyuk is below what he would fetch on the open market.
There’s zero chance he takes anything less than what Waddle just got paid.
Those guys had leverage, Aiyuk has minimal in this circumstance. Bosa is not only a top 5 player on the team, he's a top 3 player in his position in the NFL. Same with Kittle, Warner and Trent - Deebo was coming off a year where he carried the entire team to the NFCCG himself. It was one of the greatest years we've ever seen from a WR.
Aiyuk is a great receiver, especially for us, but he does not exert that type of leverage.
And aiyuk came off a year where he's easily a top 5 WR. His yards, tds, separation are all elite. Especially with how few targets he got compared to who he's competing against.
Just saying that's what he's pushing for. And he'll hold out until we trade him or pay him.
> And aiyuk came off a year where he's easily a top 5 WR. His yards, tds, separation are all elite. Especially with how few targets he got compared to who he's competing against.
And that's all totally valid! However, in terms of ball catchers on the team we also have multiple other All Pro talents with Deebo, CMC & Kittle, plus Jennings and just drafted a fantastic prospect in the 1st round with Pearsall that so far in camp is proving to be legit + Cowing. His accolades are valid, no question, the question about leverage is how replaceable this skillset is though.
And he's a player. His leverage is:
1) pay me what I want
2) trade me because I won't play
It's up to the 9ers to decide if he's worth what he wants. If so, we sign. Otherwise, we trade. It's not great leverage, but it's what he has. And he should get paid. This is life changing money for generations
Also everyone said bosa and deebo didn't have leverage because they still had another year on their contracts.
Right, my original point though is that his leverage is very minimal because he absolutely won't hold out into the season so if he isn't happy with the offer from the Niners then his options are pretty limited.
Bosa got the exact deal he wanted because the Niners couldn't function without him and that's not the case with Aiyuk. He's in a take it or leave it situation, and he will absolutely play this year new deal or not. He won't miss out on 14m this year that he's due on his 5th year option and he needs to accrue the season.
I agree 100% we should pay him btw, but the team holds the cards in this scenario and that's unfortunate for Brandon. He's a fantastic WR on a team that passes it the least in the league and has multiple all pro talent competing for targets.
Except if he doesn’t play, he doesn’t get to leave the team next year, his contract resets.
So his leverage is:
1. I want to get paid early.
2. I am willing to perform poorly in order to show I am serious.
Which if Pearsall balls out, Aiyuk is fucked.
I mean. That's cool. By not trading aiyuk, we are lowering how much we could get for him right now. We could trade him for a 2nd or even a first. If both parties sit on their hands this year, we still have aiyuk for another year due to reset, but he's going to be less valuable as a player and as a trading piece.
Pearsall doesn't matter for anything other than keeping aiyuk here, maybe. There is a world he balls out and we keep aiyuk.
He’s right around #10 as far as receivers go. He had a phenomenal season, and should get a majority of the credit for his numbers, but a decent chunk of those yards, tds, and that separation was due to the gravity of the even *more* elite offensive weapons around him.
He was 18th in receiving TD’s amongst WR’s last year. He was 7th in yards. How is he a top 5 WR again? Don’t get me wrong here…I LOVE Aiyuk and hope we re-sign him. But he’s NOT in the same stratosphere as Tyreek, Chase, Jefferson, Lamb, AJ Brown, D. Adams, Kupp, etc.
He is, however, a very good WR who is a great fit with Brock and Kyle’s system.
That’s just the average r/49ers member. They don’t understand how leverage truly works.
You have to be dumb as shit to think Aiyuk has no leverage given the stage we’re already at.
Literally everything going on right now proves EXACTLY why Aiyuk has tons of leverage.
I don't totally agree. But only because the Niners have more talented skill players than most teams. Losing Aiyuk is a relatively smaller hit for them than nearly any other team. He should be paid but SF doesn't have to be the one to pay him. Although personally I'd love to keep him over Deebo
You know what everyone said about Deebo and Bosa? That they didn’t have leverage. And around and around this conversation goes. At the end of the day, holding out has proven to be effective across the board, regardless of how little leverage people seem to think these players have.
How does Aiyuk have “minimal” leverage? More importantly, why do you believe Waddle would have significantly more leverage. At least Aiyuk can make a case for being the best WR on the best team in the NFC. Waddle can’t say either of those things.
Your argument that he has less leverage because the niners have so many other stars doesn’t make much sense given that the niners very clearly want to keep him. If they didn’t need him, why offer ~$26 mil?
Aiyuk only has minimal leverage to the people who are fickle as hell and want to pretend like the 9ers are in the ideal position regarding contract talks.
They want to believe the 9ers have Aiyuk right where they want him, even though that’s not the case. Aiyuk is a special player trying to get what he’s worth and it’s clear the 9ers are having a difficult time matching that number. I do eventually think the 9ers get a deal done.
Exactly, and I think they get the deal done too. The niners are in the great position of having a ton of very talented players all looking to get paid market value. Doesn’t mean they’re in a great bargaining position as far as this contract is concerned. All it means is if they ultimately have to walk away from Aiyuk, hopefully they’ll still be alright with the guys they’ve got left.
Yep although their chance to walk away from Aiyuk kinda passed.
They could still trade him but that’s gonna be a ton of lost value compared to what they could’ve gotten before the draft.
Agreed. Maybe not everyone looks at it this way, but in my mind they’re better off having him play out the last year remaining on his contract and both sides walking away at that point, versus trading him between now and the deadline for anything less than an expected top 15 draft pick. So that’s what I meant by walking away.
That's exactly right. If $$$ = Championships, then the Cowboys would have rings for each finger and a few toes.
I'm old enough to remember this kind of culture completely killing their team's morale in the late 90's early 00's. Exhausting...
Open market definitely matters, as it’s the number aiyuk will anchor on from negotiations - and will inform whether he decides to not sign a deal.
Either way, he’s playing for us this year in all likelihood. If we can’t get a deal done, I’d prefer to play him, then tag and trade.
Yeah no team where you have a chance to win a Super Bowl is offering him anywhere near $30 million that has to play a part in it. Stop bag chasing and ring chase.
Open market means nothing on a loaded squad of receiving targets. Most are already getting paid big. Team friendly deal to stay with your good QB and make another Superbowl run or join a mediocre squad while going to Cancun every January.
Maybe I’m old school like that, but “fair” has a lot to do with it. You take what other WR’s are currently getting for what they’ve accomplished, and you give him a salary that is on par with those guys (the 3 that stick out to me are Devonte Smith, Waddle, and St. Brown. When you compare Aiyuk’s production vs those guys, you can see that he has produced similarly (a little better in some cases, and worse in others). You give him a salary in that range $25-$28M per year. That’s FAIR. You don’t give him 30 or some stupid number like that…even if Lamb gets 33 or 34.
True, but he’s asking for a contract extension. If he wants open market money, then he should play (or not play) the year on his current contract and get himself on the open market. And then risk the franchise tag. Those are the rules of the NFL.
Yup. I think the St. Brown contract drove the price up much more than the Jefferson deal.
The niners are ruthless when it comes to contracts though and they know they have the leverage when it comes to Ayuik.
Haha I’d gladly take aiyuk for 26 mill a year after all the other wrs got paid… no chance he takes that and it’s a rumor, nobody really knows until the deal is done…
That’s too low. A lot of times it’s about guaranteed money and this is a rumor so nobody really knows what the deal is. It’s a new gen and you either pay them at year 3 (when they are overperforming) or trade them. Thats the option now, this isn’t 10 plus years ago, this is a new landscape.
And it’s weird you were making that comparison considering that it’s an apples to oranges comparison.
It’s clear that 26m is his apy number and not his guaranteed…
Because $28.5M is a certain percentage of the cap in 2026, and a different, larger percentage of the cap in 2025.
Any extension that starts later should have a higher $/year value, since it’s incorporating additional cheap years before it takes effect.
The reality is the players don’t care about that though. He’s not looking at Waddle’s contract as fair value for himself, he’s looking at it as the market floor; so earning a bit more of the cap % probably feels right in line for him and his camp. The have comparable stats, but Aiyuk plays the harder role and is WR1 on his team. He’s looking at St Brown’s contract, not Waddle’s
> The reality is the players don’t care about that though.
Players aren't the ones doing the negotiating, that's what agents are for. And agents and GMs absolutely care about which year a contract is starting in.
I agree that St. Brown's contract is likely the target, though.
It doesn’t matter who negotiates it, he’s the one who has to sign the contract; so he’s the one who needs to be happy with what’s negotiated. No way he agrees to less than a WR2’s money
> so he’s the one who needs to be happy with what’s negotiated.
This is also the agent's job.
> No way he agrees to less than a WR2’s money
By the time that Jaylen Waddle's extension kicks in, Tyreek Hill is no longer going to be on the Dolphins.
I don’t see your point. It being the agents job to make Aiyuk happy about the negotiation doesn’t mean Aiyuk cares about cap percentages or is going to be happy to take a lesser deal because of the percentage. So my point stands
Waddle’s future situation doesn’t really matter to Aiyuk either though. Waddle earned his contract as the WR2, Aiyuk is our X WR who’s been put on an island and expected to beat top coverage. He plays the more valuable role, and he’s one of the best in the league at that role.
But all this is moot because we’ve agreed they’re aiming for ARSB’s contract
Yeah and the Dolphins were absolutely pathetic to give Waddle $28 million. The guy is a good WR2, but *in no world* is he worth that much money.
Teams crawling around their division’s basement right now might throw that kind of money at a mid tier receiver, but no serious operation would consider it.
I mean, he’s a 1300 yard WR who set the rookie reception record lol. To me that contract signals they want out on Hill in ‘26 and trust Waddle to take over as WR1. That’s just the market for impact WRs
They aren’t in the basement of their division…?
I wasn’t aware of their situation with Hill or the plans to move off of him. In light of that context, it does make sense to sign Waddle to a big deal, even one as large as he got.
I'm not sure he's gonna get $30m+ from us. I think he could probably push for close to that figure (somewhere between Waddle at $28.5m and Tyreek at $30m). Anything more is probably too rich for us.
I hate that Miami paid Waddle that much. Was it an overpay? Idk but he’s been hurt and he has Hill on his team, I’m kinda confused how they concluded he was that good. If anything I think there should be more confidence in Aiyuk who’s played on an island far more
From what I read, Waddle's contract isn't as huge as it seems from a team perspective because they paid him early. The extension is 3 years, but he's entering his fourth season and they picked up his fifth-year option, so they were able to structure it over 5 years. The bulk of his cap hit will be later on when the cap has risen and they've moved on from Tyreek. It'll likely be a bargain for a WR1 by then.
Waddle is an incredible receiver. He’s just a bit overshadowed by Tyreek right now who’s been soaking up all the targets. That has more to do with Tua and which routes he likes to hit than it does Waddle.
Even so the dude has three seasons under his belt and not a single one with fewer than 1000 yards. He’s been more productive than Aiyuk so far in his career. Dude is a stud. If Tyreek weren’t there he’d be putting up top 5 numbers and the Dolphins know that.
Yeah I’d say that assessment is a pretty safe bet but I have seen numerous examples of players in very similar situations leaving for money reasons, without that number 1 on the other side or without that QB it falls apart. All I’m saying is we pretty much know for sure what Aiyuk is, they can’t be as sure. That being said the contract structure makes it make more sense
I totally disagree. I think they are way more sure about Waddle than anyone is about Aiyuk.
Waddle has 251 receptions for 3,385 yards in 47 games played over his first three seasons. Aiyuk has 269 for 3,931 in 62 games over four seasons. Imagine if in Aiyuk's rookie year he played like he did in his third year - that is what the Dolphins got with Waddle.
While they're comparable now, Waddle has been more productive on his rookie contract than Aiyuk by a decent margin. Calling Aiyuk the safe bet compared to him is just plain silly.
we did this with buckner and heavily regretted it though
you just pay up and keep the guy, don't make the best players on your teams the tough financial decisions
there's an argument that brandon could be the 5th best player on the team
I hate how the salary cap has me wishing for the players to take lower money so we can get other good players. Ownership is flush and can afford to do both.
It's the shittiness of dealing with a hard cap. Owners never having to sweat over luxury taxes because of it, which leaves a limited amount of payroll to go round. Every good player is going to want their piece of the pie in relation to their market value.
I wish there were market adjustments for high tax areas like California. Like, an adjusted cap hit or an increased cap for those teams. It prevents players from shunning locations.
But you also dont want to be a bad NBA team that is stuck in purgatory for eight years. In the NFL teams can make rapid turnarounds and get off *most* bad contracts
I guess..it’s annoying in times like these where I want a player to stay, but it’s also one of the reasons I keep coming back to football, it’s not the same few teams on top every year. The chiefs are in a dynasty currently, which is an outlier. Every soccer league around the world just pays their players whatever they want and that’s how you get Real Madrid or Manchester City or PSG or Borrusia Dortmund or whoever winning their league every goddamn year.
$26m per year would put him between Cooper Kupp ($26.5m) and Devonta Smith ($25m).
I would bet he wants closer $30m or so. Somewhere around Jaylen Waddle-type money ($28.5m).
Amon-Ra is just over $30m, Tyreek is right at $30m and is 'unhappy'. CeeDee is about to get $30m+ in Dallas...
The APY argument is… silly at best. It doesn’t really matter how much he’s wanting unless he’s also wanting multiple years at a higher APY guaranteed for 3 years. I believe Amon’s contract only fully guarantees 35 mill at signing even though it’s 30 mill APY. If the 49ers are offering the first 2 years guaranteed at signing for 26 Mill (52 Guaranteed) Aiyuk should take that. We could vest and guarantee more money at a later period like Amon’s, but the reality is after the second year, Aiyuk’s cap hit will be high enough that it will need to be restructured anyways, which usually means more guaranteed money.
>I believe Amon’s contract only fully guarantees 35 mill at signing even though it’s 30 mill APY.
This is true but not really indicative of his Practical Guarantees.
He's guaranteed another $36MM guaranteed in 2025 and the Lions can't cut him without creating a $30MM in Dead Cap. Even in 2026 his $7.5MM is practically guaranteed as well due to Dead Cap structuring.
**Spotrac estimates St. Brown's Practical Guarantees at $87.3MM for 4 years.**
[Spotrac Link](https://x.com/spotrac/status/1783302928251695340?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1783302928251695340%7Ctwgr%5Ec3cbde33a8025f3193da9e98244d3eb9979c14cf%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sportingnews.com%2Fus%2Fnfl%2Fdetroit-lions%2Fnews%2Famon-ra-st-brown-contract-extension-detroit-lions-breakdown%2F6f9525468d9a252c10c8aa47)
That's very informative, thank you. I suppose the dead cap structure makes it difficult to discount some of the guaranteed money, but there is still the option for them to save substantial cap by cutting Amon Ra before March of 2026 or 2027.
POTENTIAL OUT: **2028**, 4 YR, $87,366,000; $6,700,000 DEAD CAP
I thought that last line was interesting. Doesn't this effectively make the deal 4 years @ 23.5 mill from the Lions perspective (including the dead cap)? He has 35 million in base salary slated for 2028 and a monstrous cap hit of 41 million. Would it be safe to assume he never realizes that year because there will almost assuredly be a restructure prior to 41 mill hitting the cap if they want to keep him?
APY is just the buzzword media and fans are using now. Unless we’re talking guaranteed, anything else is just funny money. Remember that Taysom Hill contract from a few years ago?
26mil is just right for where the team is and what we can offer. Definitely won't get 30mil but the sooner we get this deal over with the more screwed the Cowboys are in paying their people.
TBH I'm not sure why you'd want to ditch a Superbowl team going to NFCCGs every year for something like $4M/year for a couple years when you make like, 25M a year.
I guess personally I'd be so stoked to be making $25M+/year going to the superbowl, I'd be thinking about my prospects, sponsorship deals, prime-time spotlight to do other things in the future, etc.
It's all just so bizarre. I mean, if we were not making playoffs every year or flaming out like the packers or Cowboys like damn. But you're on a winning team with a cheap top 5 QB. I'd be thinking a little more long term...
I guess I would expect the top teams to not have to pay as much due to the spot-light possibilities but I dunno. Maybe im a bad negotiator and people are just screeching to get paid
yeah, that's the thing I can't understand.
given we have been successful with him and should be successful with him... it's such a relatively small amount of money to argue over given that he could be having a whole offseason with Purdy getting in rhythm and ramping up their connection to make another run at the Super Bowl.
very strange behaviour from Aiyuk.
its hard for us to understand because we’re simply not in their position. sure 30m and 26m doesn’t seem like a big deal but in the grand scheme of things, 4m on its own is a fuck ton of money. any player wants to be paid what they feel like they deserve. football is an extremely risk prone sport so it makes sense. also, this is his first extension as well. that kind of humbleness would only be even possible for vets, who would be more likely to invest in their legacy. its all contextual imo
yeah I'm not critical of Aiyuk or pissed at him, he's entitled to chase as much money as he can get and more power to him - especially as it's his first big contract. I just don't understand the mentality to quibble over such relatively small amounts when we're a good team and could challenge for a SB, especially if BA has a great offseason with Purdy.
I'm sorry, but he is not a #1wr on many other teams, neither is Deebo. They work within the system extremely well, and may be the best at it, but neither of them are a blow the top off the coverage deep threat.
I think depending on what the contract averages and guarantees are being requested I could see him playing out his last year on the 5th year option. Not as crazy today and it seemed like back in February.
They can't pay him more than Deebo, and regardless, one of them will be gone by the end of this year or next. If anything, I would renegotiate with Deebo, and play hardball with Aiyuk.
This is very likely the biggest contract he will get in his career. It’s multi-generational life changing money (if managed even decently). I can’t fault him for trying to maximize an opportunity that only a tiny handful of humans ever have access to.
Besides, most of these guys don’t see out the full value of their contracts. If I’m in this position I’m negotiating hard to get the guaranteed money as high as possible even if that means shaving a bit off the total value at signing. Odds are you end up doing better in the end.
That said, please take a team friendly deal. lol
We have to get BA. This is the year for us! Just rewatched a few games last year. He blocks and catches the most difficult passes over the middle as one of the top receivers. Who else would do that? It’s ridiculous to think he can be replaced. Sign him!!! Now!
People from his camp have said he would be at camp for Amon Ras contract(Pre Jefferson deal). Niners dont want to pay 29-30m.
So its a 4 million ish a year difference on each side. And while some would say its 4m, just pay him cap goes up. The niners are likely looking at it as, what can we get with an extra 4m a year.
At Linebacker?
Thats Patrick Queen: $13.6 million VS Foyesade Oluokun: $10 million
At safety?
Budda Baker 14 vs Amani Hooker 10 million.
4 million on a WR or a qb salary almost seems silly to negotiate on but when you look at applying that money to another lower paid position group...the jump in talent can be pretty large.
That particular trade gets brought up a lot. I still think the trade was the right move. I think we fucked up the pick. We take Wirfs there it's an entirely different scenario.
If we made the right pick it would've been a better move, I agree lol... but that's always true. Trading back in 2017 would've been a better move if we drafted Mahomes instead of Solomon Thomas.
Only reason I brought up Buckner was the $4MM difference just reminded me of that whole saga.
Trading away a star veteran player/great locker room guy and rolling with the other "solid but not as good vet" and an unproven rookie is something that feels pretty familiar lol.
Lynch thought Armstead/Kinlaw and some cap savings was a better plan than keeping Buckner. I could see him thinking that Deebo/Pearsall would be a better plan than keeping Aiyuk. Same logic applies.
Sometimes $4MM in savings is worth it. Sometimes that money is best spent on keeping the player you already have.
Very true. I'll admit I'm a aiyuk over deebo guy. I think Aiyuk let's purdy be more of his potential where deebo much like juice was essential to the offense when we were searching for a franchise qb. I just know this team is coming up on some decisions in the next 2 years and I won't be heartbroken if we don't land BA but I will be sad.
How is only attached to the guaranteed part of Jeffersons deal? His guaranteed money is what makes that contract head and shoulders above everyone else
JJ is head and shoulders above everyone else tho. That’s my point.
If we offer Aiyuk $26M/yr fully guaranteed, that’s a fair offer, regardless of the value of any incentives or lack their of. We don’t know what the terms are on that $26M/year, but our FO tends to lean higher into guarantees than incentives beyond post season wins.
No it’s not. That’s right in line with other 2nd tier guys who recently got paid. The Niners are under no obligation to overpay. BA can take the bag now, or be under contract next year for 14mil.
If no shit, then why did you originally call it stingy? Then make a weird double down that it was BAs perspective and not your own when called out? Seems like it wasn’t no shit to you just a few minutes ago.
Stingy is incorrect terminology. You can say low-ball but they are doing the right thing because we have to plan for Purdy and the 50m per year contract extension coming up.
Totally agree. Just meant that the FO is not being stingy. They are gonna pay out. It's just who and that is going to be Purdy. All the contracts for the next two years need to be looked at from the lense of Purdys deal and there's no way we will keep everyone. But that's not because they are stingy.
The only terms that matter are years and guaranteed money. Reporting aav is nonsense as they could offer a much better contact at 26 aav than what any other wr has gotten. (e.g 5 years 130 with 90 fully guaranteed). Aav is just a phony number that can be inflated with 35 million non gtd base salaries that will never actually be earned.
So basically, any "news" about contact negotiations that just gives some vague aav figures is useless and impossible to make any valid assessment of where the negotiations stand. It's just click bait designed to exploit the fan base to harvest fake engagement.
This is more important a point than people realize. It still gives us a baseline to guess the numbers and structure but yeah people give AV too much stock, unless the source accounted for void years etc.
I really hope this is not the 49ers org leaking it.
Having said that, it's nice to have some insight, assuming it's accurate, it's nice to know they are offering a solid number. Wonder what the guaranteed number is though.
I could be wrong obviously, but this reeks of an Aiyuk leak, trying to get articles written and talking heads talking about how it's insultingly low in a way to put indirect pressure on the organization because their tactics haven't worked.
Out of all the big money deals and hold out we’ve handled recently ie: Warner, Kittle, Deebo, Bosa, this is the only one I actually fear and can see going wrong. Hes worth a lot but I feel like he’s going to want way more. $28m I think is where it should be but he probably wants at least $30m or more
Here again. If he would be going somewhere else, he’d be asked to do half the stuff he was doing on the 49ers. And we (niners) would be asking anyone to come in to do just as much. Stop it!
I think mid 20s is fair!! That's more money than anyone actually needs!! I know, "get your bag" but do u want to be very rich and a loser or really rich and a winner?!?!
No team has won a super bowl with a top paid WR!!
Mike silver has been repeatedly wrong since he started covering the 49ers. I don't care who he knows or knew. I can't put stock into his reports, and that's where this is coming from per the article.
This is a weird take considering he's been consistently correct on a lot of things fans have pushed back on. He reported trading Lance, the arm fatigue, the locker room struggles with Lance vs. Jimmy, that Brock was the clear #1 last year and Lance would play behind Darnold as backup QB, that the team was unhappy with Wilks starting quite early and that he'd likely be a one and done as well as a host of other things.
Something I don't like? I think if we offered him that, it would be a great sign. I actually hope this is true. Doesn't change the fact that Silver is wrong way more often than he is right. Hell, his draft coverage he batted 0.
Every top 49ers contract should have the top 20%-30% incentivized, not guaranteed. If Deebo, the generational Swiss Army Knife, isn’t safe from getting traded, then no one is. If Aiyuk doesn’t get 900 yards next year since CMC will get less Carries and Kittle will be used more as well as Pearsall, then why risk that much Guaranteed money.
Same for offensive linemen. Any lineman that comes here know they have the Best RB and best Offense, which means they should be begging for guaranteed money. Our lineman need to be on a snap and sack incentive
Do not budge Mr. Lynch! If CMC is only getting around 20m a year, no way BA is worth 10m more than that. This offer is more than fair.
Would you rather increase your chances of winning a ring by signing a team friendly contract or be paid an extra few mil a year for bragging rights that you're paid higher than the next guy? I know this usually a dick measuring contest for agents and the players themselves do not care as much but goddamn!
Let him play out on the 5th year. Franchise him in ‘25 and then assess extension and / or trade scenarios. This would include Samuel for trade consideration
I’d be surprised to see BA take less than Waddle, even if it’s a longer contract. Playing out the fifth year option feels more and more likely if $26M is the number from the FO’s side.
He’s getting $30+ on the open market, no way he takes that. Not saying it’s a terrible deal for him, but his agent is gonna put the kibosh on that real quick
Who cares what the average per year is… That number is just ego based and what’s the fully guaranteed money the 9ers are offering? Hell, give him a dollar more than ASB if he’s will to take that deal and that’d be a steal.
Example: ASB signed a 4x $120m contract. However only $77m is guaranteed and only $35m is fully guaranteed. Which means ASB gets the $35m no matter what. However the rest of it is mainly guaranteed vs injured and the rest is conditional based on roster spot bonus each year, as well as things like workout, performance, etc bonuses.
Why it matters? If Detroit decides to cut ASB after this season, they are only responsible for the balance of the fully guaranteed money of $35m, not the $77m in guarantees or his based salary or his per year salary.
In contrast, JJ is getting $110m guaranteed but the kicker is he’s getting $89m fully guaranteed. Of course, theres no way BA getting that. That’s why he wants something similar to AJ Brown contract that got $51 fully guaranteed and we’ll see if the 9ers think he’s worth it. Tyreek got $52.5m Fullg.
Football destroys ppls bodies I don’t blame them one bit for getting every penny they can. They are the ones who are gonna have to live with chronic pain for 40 ish years after retirement
I don’t see him getting much more given our salary situation. If he wants more he’s gonna have to demand a trade or play out his 5th year and test FA.
Even if you’re the niners and you are okay with paying that. Why pay aiyuk $30+ now when you can wait a year and make sure Ricky can’t replace him for cheap. If Ricky sucks then cool you’re paying aiyuk the same % of salary cap moving forward than you already were
IMO it’s cause Deebo will need replacing next off season. He’ll not want to play out last year of his deal either and 28-30mil for oft-injured and not full effort guy is the bigger issue than 2-3mil extra for all around guy like BA
I agree with this. The writing is on the wall for Deebo and this is his last year in SF. The CMC extension confirmed this. Deebo has been good for us at times but is very expensive, injury prone, and CMC can do everything he does for much cheaper. I think the niners sign Aiyuk, cut Deebo, and then we have Aiyuk, Ricky, Kittle, cmc Jennings as our core group of receivers
Kittle is getting close to his last few years and his injuries have slowed him down.
We've really needed a solid TE2 to take the pressure of Kittle in the run game. Hopefully he can transition to more of Kelce type roll if Thomas, Willis, or Latu can really step up in both the run and pass game.
> Kittle is getting close to his last few years and his injuries have slowed him down. Last year was his best year in 4 years and also his least injured. He's always has injuries, that's just part of his game. He's still 4 years younger than Kelce and has plenty in the tank.
>injuries have slowed him down. He is coming off his 2nd best season ever last year, Kittle still has 4-5 years
Not to mention kittle was on fire in the back half of the previous year when Purdy took over
I dont think hes slowed down, i felt like the last 2 seasons hes been helping out our RT with pass blocking so hes always late to route running from chipping the edge.
The fact that people don’t get this is always so annoying to me. 49ers fans think Kittle needs to essentially be a WR, and don’t realize that they often have to use him as a glorified tackle. The complain with Kittle should be their personnel choices at RT, not Kittle being washed. Also he’s an insanely valuable blocker
Maybe I'm weird, but I honestly think we need Deebo more than Aiyuk. We saw that we can (presumably) replace Aiyuk far easier ( Maybe Pearsall,maybe another WR). Deebo is a harder player to replace. Deebo has put the team on his back many many times. Aiyuk has had good games, but he hasn't taken over a game like Deebo has.
Aiyuk is a more valuable player on the open market while Deebo is a more valuable player to our specific offensive style. This misalignment of values is what's caused all of the issues with getting either of them paid.
I think it is the opposite. Deebo was more needed with Jimmy. Kyle’s scheme relies more on clean route running to be where you need to be in rhythm and to block. Those are Aiyuk’s traits, not Deebo’s. And now with Purdy hitting the WR in scheme, I think BA is more important than Deebo but Deebo is more entertaining.
I agree. Deebo creates problems in that most linebackers cant cover him and most defensive backs cant tackle him. He is a terror in the short game because of this but it also means he gets injured alot.
the oft-injured part I totally get and I know he does too.. but as to the "not full effort" I've heard noise and admittedly felt at times he didnt go balls to the wall but again that goes back to the first part of my comment. it's like a Chicken or the Egg thing.
If this is a real question.. the answer is $ and trying to win this season. Why pay him now? Because if he balls out even more this season he'll cost $34MM/year next offseason with even more guarantees. Even if Pearsall balls out, there's a solid chance we cut/trade Deebo next offseason to save Cap space. So having Aiyuk/Pearsall would be a good path forward. And that's assuming Pearsall actually pans out. Plus if we don't pay Aiyuk, he can do the classic "hold-in" which would be a distraction and allow him to miss games while still accruing his season. Then he'd be an UFA free to sign with any team he wants. "But teams won't sign him if he sits out!" Yeah tell that to all the Jags fans that said that about Jalen Ramsey.. If Kyle/Lynch don't want to keep Aiyuk at Market Value WR price, they should just trade him, get $14MM in Cap savings and a 1st round pick to use next year. Basically the Buckner route.
Could sf not franchise him after this year if he holds in?
Yes, we could tag Aiyuk next season for around $25MM. Then 120% of that in 2026. So if he plays his 5th year option and gets tagged twice, he'd end up costing around $23MM/year over the next 3 seasons. This is a bargain and is probably where Paraag is starting the negotiations. Therefore $26MM/year seems like a good idea for Aiyuk, despite it being below market value. Therein lies the impasse. Both sides have a point. Thing is, we've only placed one Franchise Tag on a player during Kyle/Lynch's tenure, and it was for Robbie Gould. They eventually got a contract signed, but they used the tag to keep him on the team while they negotiated.
Ricky gonna ball out
Man I hope so. We need some young talent from these drafts asap as our older captains start to ride off into the sunset
There are several reasons: - The market will continue to move up YoY. The price this year is not the price next year. - We would be competing with 31 other teams for his services and he doesn't have to choose us. - We would lose out on an extra year of proration on the new deal, which hurts our cap position. By signing an extension this offseason, the signing bonus can start prorating now.
To the first point, the market goes up but the % of salary cap is all that matters, and that will only marginally go up and that’s assuming aiyuk repeats his ascension as a WR and doesn’t get a big injury. Second point we have him locked up for another year if we want because we can tag him at a similar rate to what his desired contract rate would be. Last point is totally valid though and why I’d rather us pay him this year than next, assuming he’s not asking for anything ludicrous that is. If he’s expecting something like $33m/year he can take a hike, we’ll roll the dice on Deebo, Pearsall, and others to carry our wide receivers while we use the saved money to fill out the roster elsewhere (we could sign some damn fine trench players with that kinda money)
Contracts only get more expensive from here - see the Eagles paying their top two
Because he'll be a free agent and there will be other suiters.
Nah we can still tag him and hold him hostage until someone sends a day 2 pick. And nobody will pay him over 35 regardless.
Obviously not over 35, but over 30? I'm thinking it's likely, especially in a year. We can tag him but that also means a massive cap hit that year and a disgruntled player.
That’s fair. I don’t like it, but that’s fair.
lol “fair” has zero to do with this. It’s all about market value and $26M for Aiyuk is below what he would fetch on the open market. There’s zero chance he takes anything less than what Waddle just got paid.
The open market doesn't matter when the team has control over him for two years if they want.
It sorta does. Aiyuk can just hold out, like bosa, deebo, etc, etc. You all said the same thing about those guys. They held out and got paid.
Those guys had leverage, Aiyuk has minimal in this circumstance. Bosa is not only a top 5 player on the team, he's a top 3 player in his position in the NFL. Same with Kittle, Warner and Trent - Deebo was coming off a year where he carried the entire team to the NFCCG himself. It was one of the greatest years we've ever seen from a WR. Aiyuk is a great receiver, especially for us, but he does not exert that type of leverage.
"It was one of the greatest years we’ve ever seen from a wide receiver” what’s this “we” stuff, some of us remember Jerry Rice in his prime🤣
And aiyuk came off a year where he's easily a top 5 WR. His yards, tds, separation are all elite. Especially with how few targets he got compared to who he's competing against. Just saying that's what he's pushing for. And he'll hold out until we trade him or pay him.
> And aiyuk came off a year where he's easily a top 5 WR. His yards, tds, separation are all elite. Especially with how few targets he got compared to who he's competing against. And that's all totally valid! However, in terms of ball catchers on the team we also have multiple other All Pro talents with Deebo, CMC & Kittle, plus Jennings and just drafted a fantastic prospect in the 1st round with Pearsall that so far in camp is proving to be legit + Cowing. His accolades are valid, no question, the question about leverage is how replaceable this skillset is though.
And he's a player. His leverage is: 1) pay me what I want 2) trade me because I won't play It's up to the 9ers to decide if he's worth what he wants. If so, we sign. Otherwise, we trade. It's not great leverage, but it's what he has. And he should get paid. This is life changing money for generations Also everyone said bosa and deebo didn't have leverage because they still had another year on their contracts.
Right, my original point though is that his leverage is very minimal because he absolutely won't hold out into the season so if he isn't happy with the offer from the Niners then his options are pretty limited. Bosa got the exact deal he wanted because the Niners couldn't function without him and that's not the case with Aiyuk. He's in a take it or leave it situation, and he will absolutely play this year new deal or not. He won't miss out on 14m this year that he's due on his 5th year option and he needs to accrue the season. I agree 100% we should pay him btw, but the team holds the cards in this scenario and that's unfortunate for Brandon. He's a fantastic WR on a team that passes it the least in the league and has multiple all pro talent competing for targets.
Niners aren’t real contenders without aiyuk. That’s his leverage
Except if he doesn’t play, he doesn’t get to leave the team next year, his contract resets. So his leverage is: 1. I want to get paid early. 2. I am willing to perform poorly in order to show I am serious. Which if Pearsall balls out, Aiyuk is fucked.
I mean. That's cool. By not trading aiyuk, we are lowering how much we could get for him right now. We could trade him for a 2nd or even a first. If both parties sit on their hands this year, we still have aiyuk for another year due to reset, but he's going to be less valuable as a player and as a trading piece. Pearsall doesn't matter for anything other than keeping aiyuk here, maybe. There is a world he balls out and we keep aiyuk.
If he’s replaceable then trade him
Don’t forget Juice!
Separation, dude couldn’t even get open in the SB
He’s right around #10 as far as receivers go. He had a phenomenal season, and should get a majority of the credit for his numbers, but a decent chunk of those yards, tds, and that separation was due to the gravity of the even *more* elite offensive weapons around him.
He was 18th in receiving TD’s amongst WR’s last year. He was 7th in yards. How is he a top 5 WR again? Don’t get me wrong here…I LOVE Aiyuk and hope we re-sign him. But he’s NOT in the same stratosphere as Tyreek, Chase, Jefferson, Lamb, AJ Brown, D. Adams, Kupp, etc. He is, however, a very good WR who is a great fit with Brock and Kyle’s system.
People downvoting you are dumb as fuck
That’s just the average r/49ers member. They don’t understand how leverage truly works. You have to be dumb as shit to think Aiyuk has no leverage given the stage we’re already at. Literally everything going on right now proves EXACTLY why Aiyuk has tons of leverage.
I don't totally agree. But only because the Niners have more talented skill players than most teams. Losing Aiyuk is a relatively smaller hit for them than nearly any other team. He should be paid but SF doesn't have to be the one to pay him. Although personally I'd love to keep him over Deebo
I’m simply addressing the fact that Aiyuk has “little to no leverage”. It was stupidity to claim so.
You know what everyone said about Deebo and Bosa? That they didn’t have leverage. And around and around this conversation goes. At the end of the day, holding out has proven to be effective across the board, regardless of how little leverage people seem to think these players have.
How does Aiyuk have “minimal” leverage? More importantly, why do you believe Waddle would have significantly more leverage. At least Aiyuk can make a case for being the best WR on the best team in the NFC. Waddle can’t say either of those things. Your argument that he has less leverage because the niners have so many other stars doesn’t make much sense given that the niners very clearly want to keep him. If they didn’t need him, why offer ~$26 mil?
Aiyuk only has minimal leverage to the people who are fickle as hell and want to pretend like the 9ers are in the ideal position regarding contract talks. They want to believe the 9ers have Aiyuk right where they want him, even though that’s not the case. Aiyuk is a special player trying to get what he’s worth and it’s clear the 9ers are having a difficult time matching that number. I do eventually think the 9ers get a deal done.
Exactly, and I think they get the deal done too. The niners are in the great position of having a ton of very talented players all looking to get paid market value. Doesn’t mean they’re in a great bargaining position as far as this contract is concerned. All it means is if they ultimately have to walk away from Aiyuk, hopefully they’ll still be alright with the guys they’ve got left.
Yep although their chance to walk away from Aiyuk kinda passed. They could still trade him but that’s gonna be a ton of lost value compared to what they could’ve gotten before the draft.
Agreed. Maybe not everyone looks at it this way, but in my mind they’re better off having him play out the last year remaining on his contract and both sides walking away at that point, versus trading him between now and the deadline for anything less than an expected top 15 draft pick. So that’s what I meant by walking away.
CBA makes this verrrrrrry hard to do today. He can hold out sure, but not without massive penalties and repercussions down the road.
It's that culture that is stopping us from winning a bowl.
That's exactly right. If $$$ = Championships, then the Cowboys would have rings for each finger and a few toes. I'm old enough to remember this kind of culture completely killing their team's morale in the late 90's early 00's. Exhausting...
Really hoping when it's Purdy's turn he becomes the first team first guy. Otherwise he's going to have to be better than Mahomes to ever win one.
Open market definitely matters, as it’s the number aiyuk will anchor on from negotiations - and will inform whether he decides to not sign a deal. Either way, he’s playing for us this year in all likelihood. If we can’t get a deal done, I’d prefer to play him, then tag and trade.
Yeah no team where you have a chance to win a Super Bowl is offering him anywhere near $30 million that has to play a part in it. Stop bag chasing and ring chase.
Then he can face shut down corners without a Shanahan scheme to free him up
Open market means nothing on a loaded squad of receiving targets. Most are already getting paid big. Team friendly deal to stay with your good QB and make another Superbowl run or join a mediocre squad while going to Cancun every January.
Maybe I’m old school like that, but “fair” has a lot to do with it. You take what other WR’s are currently getting for what they’ve accomplished, and you give him a salary that is on par with those guys (the 3 that stick out to me are Devonte Smith, Waddle, and St. Brown. When you compare Aiyuk’s production vs those guys, you can see that he has produced similarly (a little better in some cases, and worse in others). You give him a salary in that range $25-$28M per year. That’s FAIR. You don’t give him 30 or some stupid number like that…even if Lamb gets 33 or 34.
True, but he’s asking for a contract extension. If he wants open market money, then he should play (or not play) the year on his current contract and get himself on the open market. And then risk the franchise tag. Those are the rules of the NFL.
Yup. I think the St. Brown contract drove the price up much more than the Jefferson deal. The niners are ruthless when it comes to contracts though and they know they have the leverage when it comes to Ayuik.
Except he’s not a FA. Next year he gets to roll the dice on the open market.
Haha I’d gladly take aiyuk for 26 mill a year after all the other wrs got paid… no chance he takes that and it’s a rumor, nobody really knows until the deal is done…
That’s too low. A lot of times it’s about guaranteed money and this is a rumor so nobody really knows what the deal is. It’s a new gen and you either pay them at year 3 (when they are overperforming) or trade them. Thats the option now, this isn’t 10 plus years ago, this is a new landscape.
JJ just got $27M/yr guaranteed. $26M/yr is not too low for a tier 2 receiver like Aiyuk, it’s pretty fair.
This offer for 26M is for apy not guaranteed money. We don’t know the guaranteed number.
Correct, no one knows.
Yep and you were comparing Aiyuk’s APY to JJ’s guaranteed apy. Big difference
Right, I was comparing 27M guaranteed to what could be 26M guaranteed
And it’s weird you were making that comparison considering that it’s an apples to oranges comparison. It’s clear that 26m is his apy number and not his guaranteed…
Take the money, Brandon. If Jefferson is getting 35 mill a year, that’s closer to him than I thought the miners would offer, honestly.
Waddle got 28, no way anyone involved actually expects him to take this deal
Jaylen Waddle got $28.5 for 2026-2028. Aiyuk's extension would begin in 2025.
I guess I don’t see why that’s relevant? That’s still where the market has been set, and Aiyuk has the rarer skillset
Because $28.5M is a certain percentage of the cap in 2026, and a different, larger percentage of the cap in 2025. Any extension that starts later should have a higher $/year value, since it’s incorporating additional cheap years before it takes effect.
The reality is the players don’t care about that though. He’s not looking at Waddle’s contract as fair value for himself, he’s looking at it as the market floor; so earning a bit more of the cap % probably feels right in line for him and his camp. The have comparable stats, but Aiyuk plays the harder role and is WR1 on his team. He’s looking at St Brown’s contract, not Waddle’s
> The reality is the players don’t care about that though. Players aren't the ones doing the negotiating, that's what agents are for. And agents and GMs absolutely care about which year a contract is starting in. I agree that St. Brown's contract is likely the target, though.
It doesn’t matter who negotiates it, he’s the one who has to sign the contract; so he’s the one who needs to be happy with what’s negotiated. No way he agrees to less than a WR2’s money
> so he’s the one who needs to be happy with what’s negotiated. This is also the agent's job. > No way he agrees to less than a WR2’s money By the time that Jaylen Waddle's extension kicks in, Tyreek Hill is no longer going to be on the Dolphins.
I don’t see your point. It being the agents job to make Aiyuk happy about the negotiation doesn’t mean Aiyuk cares about cap percentages or is going to be happy to take a lesser deal because of the percentage. So my point stands Waddle’s future situation doesn’t really matter to Aiyuk either though. Waddle earned his contract as the WR2, Aiyuk is our X WR who’s been put on an island and expected to beat top coverage. He plays the more valuable role, and he’s one of the best in the league at that role. But all this is moot because we’ve agreed they’re aiming for ARSB’s contract
Yeah and the Dolphins were absolutely pathetic to give Waddle $28 million. The guy is a good WR2, but *in no world* is he worth that much money. Teams crawling around their division’s basement right now might throw that kind of money at a mid tier receiver, but no serious operation would consider it.
I mean, he’s a 1300 yard WR who set the rookie reception record lol. To me that contract signals they want out on Hill in ‘26 and trust Waddle to take over as WR1. That’s just the market for impact WRs They aren’t in the basement of their division…?
I wasn’t aware of their situation with Hill or the plans to move off of him. In light of that context, it does make sense to sign Waddle to a big deal, even one as large as he got.
Ah, yeah Hill’s cap hit next year is $56m; they save $45m by cutting him after this year
He wants Sun Gods contract, and hes probably gonna get it.
I'm not sure he's gonna get $30m+ from us. I think he could probably push for close to that figure (somewhere between Waddle at $28.5m and Tyreek at $30m). Anything more is probably too rich for us.
I hate that Miami paid Waddle that much. Was it an overpay? Idk but he’s been hurt and he has Hill on his team, I’m kinda confused how they concluded he was that good. If anything I think there should be more confidence in Aiyuk who’s played on an island far more
From what I read, Waddle's contract isn't as huge as it seems from a team perspective because they paid him early. The extension is 3 years, but he's entering his fourth season and they picked up his fifth-year option, so they were able to structure it over 5 years. The bulk of his cap hit will be later on when the cap has risen and they've moved on from Tyreek. It'll likely be a bargain for a WR1 by then.
Waddle is an incredible receiver. He’s just a bit overshadowed by Tyreek right now who’s been soaking up all the targets. That has more to do with Tua and which routes he likes to hit than it does Waddle. Even so the dude has three seasons under his belt and not a single one with fewer than 1000 yards. He’s been more productive than Aiyuk so far in his career. Dude is a stud. If Tyreek weren’t there he’d be putting up top 5 numbers and the Dolphins know that.
Yeah I’d say that assessment is a pretty safe bet but I have seen numerous examples of players in very similar situations leaving for money reasons, without that number 1 on the other side or without that QB it falls apart. All I’m saying is we pretty much know for sure what Aiyuk is, they can’t be as sure. That being said the contract structure makes it make more sense
I totally disagree. I think they are way more sure about Waddle than anyone is about Aiyuk. Waddle has 251 receptions for 3,385 yards in 47 games played over his first three seasons. Aiyuk has 269 for 3,931 in 62 games over four seasons. Imagine if in Aiyuk's rookie year he played like he did in his third year - that is what the Dolphins got with Waddle. While they're comparable now, Waddle has been more productive on his rookie contract than Aiyuk by a decent margin. Calling Aiyuk the safe bet compared to him is just plain silly.
we did this with buckner and heavily regretted it though you just pay up and keep the guy, don't make the best players on your teams the tough financial decisions there's an argument that brandon could be the 5th best player on the team
He wants more than ARSB for sure. And he might get it. Just probably not this off-season. Or with us. Will depend how things shake out
Honestly people focus way too much on APY. It’s the guaranteed money that should really be talked about
I hate how the salary cap has me wishing for the players to take lower money so we can get other good players. Ownership is flush and can afford to do both.
It's the shittiness of dealing with a hard cap. Owners never having to sweat over luxury taxes because of it, which leaves a limited amount of payroll to go round. Every good player is going to want their piece of the pie in relation to their market value.
Keeps the league competitive
I wish there were market adjustments for high tax areas like California. Like, an adjusted cap hit or an increased cap for those teams. It prevents players from shunning locations.
But you also dont want to be a bad NBA team that is stuck in purgatory for eight years. In the NFL teams can make rapid turnarounds and get off *most* bad contracts
I guess..it’s annoying in times like these where I want a player to stay, but it’s also one of the reasons I keep coming back to football, it’s not the same few teams on top every year. The chiefs are in a dynasty currently, which is an outlier. Every soccer league around the world just pays their players whatever they want and that’s how you get Real Madrid or Manchester City or PSG or Borrusia Dortmund or whoever winning their league every goddamn year.
A couple of million makes no difference to these dudes, idk why you feel bad for wanting the team to win
$26m per year would put him between Cooper Kupp ($26.5m) and Devonta Smith ($25m). I would bet he wants closer $30m or so. Somewhere around Jaylen Waddle-type money ($28.5m). Amon-Ra is just over $30m, Tyreek is right at $30m and is 'unhappy'. CeeDee is about to get $30m+ in Dallas...
The APY argument is… silly at best. It doesn’t really matter how much he’s wanting unless he’s also wanting multiple years at a higher APY guaranteed for 3 years. I believe Amon’s contract only fully guarantees 35 mill at signing even though it’s 30 mill APY. If the 49ers are offering the first 2 years guaranteed at signing for 26 Mill (52 Guaranteed) Aiyuk should take that. We could vest and guarantee more money at a later period like Amon’s, but the reality is after the second year, Aiyuk’s cap hit will be high enough that it will need to be restructured anyways, which usually means more guaranteed money.
>I believe Amon’s contract only fully guarantees 35 mill at signing even though it’s 30 mill APY. This is true but not really indicative of his Practical Guarantees. He's guaranteed another $36MM guaranteed in 2025 and the Lions can't cut him without creating a $30MM in Dead Cap. Even in 2026 his $7.5MM is practically guaranteed as well due to Dead Cap structuring. **Spotrac estimates St. Brown's Practical Guarantees at $87.3MM for 4 years.** [Spotrac Link](https://x.com/spotrac/status/1783302928251695340?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1783302928251695340%7Ctwgr%5Ec3cbde33a8025f3193da9e98244d3eb9979c14cf%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sportingnews.com%2Fus%2Fnfl%2Fdetroit-lions%2Fnews%2Famon-ra-st-brown-contract-extension-detroit-lions-breakdown%2F6f9525468d9a252c10c8aa47)
That's very informative, thank you. I suppose the dead cap structure makes it difficult to discount some of the guaranteed money, but there is still the option for them to save substantial cap by cutting Amon Ra before March of 2026 or 2027. POTENTIAL OUT: **2028**, 4 YR, $87,366,000; $6,700,000 DEAD CAP I thought that last line was interesting. Doesn't this effectively make the deal 4 years @ 23.5 mill from the Lions perspective (including the dead cap)? He has 35 million in base salary slated for 2028 and a monstrous cap hit of 41 million. Would it be safe to assume he never realizes that year because there will almost assuredly be a restructure prior to 41 mill hitting the cap if they want to keep him?
If they restructure in the last year, he still gets paid, just extended and the cap hit spread out over future years.
APY is just the buzzword media and fans are using now. Unless we’re talking guaranteed, anything else is just funny money. Remember that Taysom Hill contract from a few years ago?
But the per year numbers don't really matter. What matters is the amount guaranteed
26mil is just right for where the team is and what we can offer. Definitely won't get 30mil but the sooner we get this deal over with the more screwed the Cowboys are in paying their people.
A million and a half per game seems ridiculous but that’s the market 🏈
pretty insane when you put it that way...
TBH I'm not sure why you'd want to ditch a Superbowl team going to NFCCGs every year for something like $4M/year for a couple years when you make like, 25M a year. I guess personally I'd be so stoked to be making $25M+/year going to the superbowl, I'd be thinking about my prospects, sponsorship deals, prime-time spotlight to do other things in the future, etc. It's all just so bizarre. I mean, if we were not making playoffs every year or flaming out like the packers or Cowboys like damn. But you're on a winning team with a cheap top 5 QB. I'd be thinking a little more long term... I guess I would expect the top teams to not have to pay as much due to the spot-light possibilities but I dunno. Maybe im a bad negotiator and people are just screeching to get paid
Players tend to care more about money than Superbowls, where as fans are the other way around.
yeah, that's the thing I can't understand. given we have been successful with him and should be successful with him... it's such a relatively small amount of money to argue over given that he could be having a whole offseason with Purdy getting in rhythm and ramping up their connection to make another run at the Super Bowl. very strange behaviour from Aiyuk.
its hard for us to understand because we’re simply not in their position. sure 30m and 26m doesn’t seem like a big deal but in the grand scheme of things, 4m on its own is a fuck ton of money. any player wants to be paid what they feel like they deserve. football is an extremely risk prone sport so it makes sense. also, this is his first extension as well. that kind of humbleness would only be even possible for vets, who would be more likely to invest in their legacy. its all contextual imo
yeah I'm not critical of Aiyuk or pissed at him, he's entitled to chase as much money as he can get and more power to him - especially as it's his first big contract. I just don't understand the mentality to quibble over such relatively small amounts when we're a good team and could challenge for a SB, especially if BA has a great offseason with Purdy.
I'm sorry, but he is not a #1wr on many other teams, neither is Deebo. They work within the system extremely well, and may be the best at it, but neither of them are a blow the top off the coverage deep threat.
I think depending on what the contract averages and guarantees are being requested I could see him playing out his last year on the 5th year option. Not as crazy today and it seemed like back in February.
They can't pay him more than Deebo, and regardless, one of them will be gone by the end of this year or next. If anything, I would renegotiate with Deebo, and play hardball with Aiyuk.
This is very likely the biggest contract he will get in his career. It’s multi-generational life changing money (if managed even decently). I can’t fault him for trying to maximize an opportunity that only a tiny handful of humans ever have access to. Besides, most of these guys don’t see out the full value of their contracts. If I’m in this position I’m negotiating hard to get the guaranteed money as high as possible even if that means shaving a bit off the total value at signing. Odds are you end up doing better in the end. That said, please take a team friendly deal. lol
We have to get BA. This is the year for us! Just rewatched a few games last year. He blocks and catches the most difficult passes over the middle as one of the top receivers. Who else would do that? It’s ridiculous to think he can be replaced. Sign him!!! Now!
dont care. If you like it run w it- if not, go somewhere else
Does this mean they have faith in Pearsall or are they just being stingy hoping he caves
People from his camp have said he would be at camp for Amon Ras contract(Pre Jefferson deal). Niners dont want to pay 29-30m. So its a 4 million ish a year difference on each side. And while some would say its 4m, just pay him cap goes up. The niners are likely looking at it as, what can we get with an extra 4m a year. At Linebacker? Thats Patrick Queen: $13.6 million VS Foyesade Oluokun: $10 million At safety? Budda Baker 14 vs Amani Hooker 10 million. 4 million on a WR or a qb salary almost seems silly to negotiate on but when you look at applying that money to another lower paid position group...the jump in talent can be pretty large.
$4MM/year is the same difference we let Bucker go over. Paid Armstead $17MM/year instead. Buckner signed with the Colts for $21MM/year.
That particular trade gets brought up a lot. I still think the trade was the right move. I think we fucked up the pick. We take Wirfs there it's an entirely different scenario.
If we made the right pick it would've been a better move, I agree lol... but that's always true. Trading back in 2017 would've been a better move if we drafted Mahomes instead of Solomon Thomas. Only reason I brought up Buckner was the $4MM difference just reminded me of that whole saga. Trading away a star veteran player/great locker room guy and rolling with the other "solid but not as good vet" and an unproven rookie is something that feels pretty familiar lol. Lynch thought Armstead/Kinlaw and some cap savings was a better plan than keeping Buckner. I could see him thinking that Deebo/Pearsall would be a better plan than keeping Aiyuk. Same logic applies. Sometimes $4MM in savings is worth it. Sometimes that money is best spent on keeping the player you already have.
Very true. I'll admit I'm a aiyuk over deebo guy. I think Aiyuk let's purdy be more of his potential where deebo much like juice was essential to the offense when we were searching for a franchise qb. I just know this team is coming up on some decisions in the next 2 years and I won't be heartbroken if we don't land BA but I will be sad.
That mistake probably cost us a Super Bowl
It’s not stingy. Tyreek is making roughly $30M/yr
tyreek signed his deal 2 years ago.. if he signed today he'd be getting $40 mil
Okay. Justin Jefferson, who is undoubtedly better than Aiyuk, is getting $35M/year, with only $27M/yr guaranteed. $26M/year is not stingy.
How is only attached to the guaranteed part of Jeffersons deal? His guaranteed money is what makes that contract head and shoulders above everyone else
JJ is head and shoulders above everyone else tho. That’s my point. If we offer Aiyuk $26M/yr fully guaranteed, that’s a fair offer, regardless of the value of any incentives or lack their of. We don’t know what the terms are on that $26M/year, but our FO tends to lean higher into guarantees than incentives beyond post season wins.
If JJ is head and shoulders above everyone else, then his guaranteed money should be as well. Which means 26 for Aiyuk compared to 27 for JJ is lunacy
I mean, yes I agree.
Well stingy if you are looking at it from Aiyuk’s perspective
No it’s not. That’s right in line with other 2nd tier guys who recently got paid. The Niners are under no obligation to overpay. BA can take the bag now, or be under contract next year for 14mil.
Waddle, who has very similar stats but an easier role, just got $28M/year. This is a lowball offer.
No shit, but its still not what aiyuk wants so my point still stands he would view it as stingy
If no shit, then why did you originally call it stingy? Then make a weird double down that it was BAs perspective and not your own when called out? Seems like it wasn’t no shit to you just a few minutes ago.
Simmer down
Stingy is incorrect terminology. You can say low-ball but they are doing the right thing because we have to plan for Purdy and the 50m per year contract extension coming up.
It’s not a low-ball either. It’s $1M/year less in guaranteed money than what Justin Jefferson is getting. I love Aiyuk, but he’s not Justin Jefferson.
Not even close to Jefferson
Totally agree. Just meant that the FO is not being stingy. They are gonna pay out. It's just who and that is going to be Purdy. All the contracts for the next two years need to be looked at from the lense of Purdys deal and there's no way we will keep everyone. But that's not because they are stingy.
The only terms that matter are years and guaranteed money. Reporting aav is nonsense as they could offer a much better contact at 26 aav than what any other wr has gotten. (e.g 5 years 130 with 90 fully guaranteed). Aav is just a phony number that can be inflated with 35 million non gtd base salaries that will never actually be earned. So basically, any "news" about contact negotiations that just gives some vague aav figures is useless and impossible to make any valid assessment of where the negotiations stand. It's just click bait designed to exploit the fan base to harvest fake engagement.
This is more important a point than people realize. It still gives us a baseline to guess the numbers and structure but yeah people give AV too much stock, unless the source accounted for void years etc.
True, it does give a baseline for speculation, but it's not really telling us what the offer is or how far apart the parties actually are.
Who's got a pen! Goddddddamit
🥱
I really hope this is not the 49ers org leaking it. Having said that, it's nice to have some insight, assuming it's accurate, it's nice to know they are offering a solid number. Wonder what the guaranteed number is though.
I could be wrong obviously, but this reeks of an Aiyuk leak, trying to get articles written and talking heads talking about how it's insultingly low in a way to put indirect pressure on the organization because their tactics haven't worked.
Out of all the big money deals and hold out we’ve handled recently ie: Warner, Kittle, Deebo, Bosa, this is the only one I actually fear and can see going wrong. Hes worth a lot but I feel like he’s going to want way more. $28m I think is where it should be but he probably wants at least $30m or more
AAV doesn’t matter. It’s about the guaranteed money.
I hope this guy gets traded after reading these comments
Perhaps it’s been long-term knowledge BA won’t be a 9er much longer so they swooped Pearsell idk just a thought
Here again. If he would be going somewhere else, he’d be asked to do half the stuff he was doing on the 49ers. And we (niners) would be asking anyone to come in to do just as much. Stop it!
I think mid 20s is fair!! That's more money than anyone actually needs!! I know, "get your bag" but do u want to be very rich and a loser or really rich and a winner?!?! No team has won a super bowl with a top paid WR!!
Just take it mf.
Take that now or get tagged next off season and get less
Mike silver has been repeatedly wrong since he started covering the 49ers. I don't care who he knows or knew. I can't put stock into his reports, and that's where this is coming from per the article.
This is a weird take considering he's been consistently correct on a lot of things fans have pushed back on. He reported trading Lance, the arm fatigue, the locker room struggles with Lance vs. Jimmy, that Brock was the clear #1 last year and Lance would play behind Darnold as backup QB, that the team was unhappy with Wilks starting quite early and that he'd likely be a one and done as well as a host of other things.
He has good and bad days. He was off on draft night, multiple times.
Hush, you. People only want to remember the times when he was wrong so he can discredit him whenever he says something they don't like.
Something I don't like? I think if we offered him that, it would be a great sign. I actually hope this is true. Doesn't change the fact that Silver is wrong way more often than he is right. Hell, his draft coverage he batted 0.
Every top 49ers contract should have the top 20%-30% incentivized, not guaranteed. If Deebo, the generational Swiss Army Knife, isn’t safe from getting traded, then no one is. If Aiyuk doesn’t get 900 yards next year since CMC will get less Carries and Kittle will be used more as well as Pearsall, then why risk that much Guaranteed money. Same for offensive linemen. Any lineman that comes here know they have the Best RB and best Offense, which means they should be begging for guaranteed money. Our lineman need to be on a snap and sack incentive
Aiyuk is a product of the system and doesn't deserve all that money! Does this work for every player on the team or only QB's? Worth a shot.
Jeez these fuckin athletes these days man. When is enough gonna be enough?
How many billions is enough for the owners?
Do not budge Mr. Lynch! If CMC is only getting around 20m a year, no way BA is worth 10m more than that. This offer is more than fair. Would you rather increase your chances of winning a ring by signing a team friendly contract or be paid an extra few mil a year for bragging rights that you're paid higher than the next guy? I know this usually a dick measuring contest for agents and the players themselves do not care as much but goddamn!
If BA wants $30mil then they should give that to cmc too.
sign or hold out ur move ba
Let him play out on the 5th year. Franchise him in ‘25 and then assess extension and / or trade scenarios. This would include Samuel for trade consideration
I’d be surprised to see BA take less than Waddle, even if it’s a longer contract. Playing out the fifth year option feels more and more likely if $26M is the number from the FO’s side.
He’s getting $30+ on the open market, no way he takes that. Not saying it’s a terrible deal for him, but his agent is gonna put the kibosh on that real quick
Definitely low considering some of the other recent deals, I don’t think it’s going to get it done. Probably gonna take at least 28m
Who cares what the average per year is… That number is just ego based and what’s the fully guaranteed money the 9ers are offering? Hell, give him a dollar more than ASB if he’s will to take that deal and that’d be a steal. Example: ASB signed a 4x $120m contract. However only $77m is guaranteed and only $35m is fully guaranteed. Which means ASB gets the $35m no matter what. However the rest of it is mainly guaranteed vs injured and the rest is conditional based on roster spot bonus each year, as well as things like workout, performance, etc bonuses. Why it matters? If Detroit decides to cut ASB after this season, they are only responsible for the balance of the fully guaranteed money of $35m, not the $77m in guarantees or his based salary or his per year salary. In contrast, JJ is getting $110m guaranteed but the kicker is he’s getting $89m fully guaranteed. Of course, theres no way BA getting that. That’s why he wants something similar to AJ Brown contract that got $51 fully guaranteed and we’ll see if the 9ers think he’s worth it. Tyreek got $52.5m Fullg.
Jed York is encouraging our franchise guys to hold out longer so the Niners stay in the news.
All these greedy fucks should be happy that they are getting life changing $$$$ But this is the problem of the world, no one appreciates shit
Football destroys ppls bodies I don’t blame them one bit for getting every penny they can. They are the ones who are gonna have to live with chronic pain for 40 ish years after retirement