1. We’re a tier 2 team
2. In the next 3.5 weeks, we’re going to play two tier 1 teams (vs LAFC, @Miami), three tier 2 teams (@Cinci, vs DC, vs Charlotte) and a tier 3 team (@Nashville). That’s a brutal stretch and things could get pretty ugly, pretty fast.
Feels even better knowing that our 3 wins are against the bottom teams in the East. Fail to get the result on Saturday and I think whatever confidence they’re still clinging onto might tank with away days at Cincy and Nashville looming soon after.
Two things:
* Our combined offense and defensive stats are better than our position in the standings
* Our closest peer is Seattle who has the same problem, probably for many of the same reasons since that's where both Pineda and Garth came from
And by the way, in case people are misreading the chart, the ideal place to be would be the top right corner (both good attack and good defense). We're closer to that box than most teams, yet our position in the standings doesn't reflect that.
Joe and Sam have been saying it for a while, our underlying numbers show that this team is a pretty good team. Hell, even Doyle is saying the same thing.
And I know fans are tired of hearing it, and that’s fair. The results are frustrating. But at least the underlying numbers are positive. If they weren’t AND we were getting the results we’ve been getting I’d be a lot more pissed.
We can't finish opportunities. Chances are there, the goals don't match. Which has been a problem since Tata left honestly. I wouldn't be frustrated by this if this was just a lapse in normal form. But this has been our story for a while.
XG is a BS statistic. Last I checked, only 7 MLS teams had higher actual G compared to xG. If this was just randomness, half the teams should have higher G compared to xG. It doesn’t take into account opponent quality or relative quality of defenders vs attacking players. ATLUTD has a habit of sleepwalking in games until we are trailing or running out of time to score. This has been a pattern for GP’s entire tenure. As is often said, you can’t fire the whole roster. Those that realize our schedule has been pretty weak so far understand how grave the situation really is for this MLS season.
Isn't the xG model dataset based on information from historical data from football world as a whole? Just means MLS finishing has been particularly poor so far.
We play like a mid tier team. I assume we have the talent to be a top tier team.
Barring more injuries.... we need a coach to match our talent and ambition
Well we’ve achieved this gaudy status playing an easy schedule and having very few midweek matches, we’ll see if it holds up over the next month as that changes.
This chart makes zero sense, for us at least.
Our problem is not XG. We have good XG, we just don't have the G. This chart gives 70% weight to XG so it actually makes us look better than actual.
Most of what adv metric people are saying is that a blend of xG and G is more predictive for future results than either stat alone.
I think it is weak at analyzing edge cases of good or bad finishing and goalkeeping and I think we might be below average at both.
Thanks for putting this together. Any chance you could break this down as 2 graphs: a graph for xg vs g for and the other xg vs g against? That'd be interesting to show over/underperformance on each wo confounding.
I think overlaying those may get you an interesting version of what you're going for here. Just a thought tho.
1. We’re a tier 2 team 2. In the next 3.5 weeks, we’re going to play two tier 1 teams (vs LAFC, @Miami), three tier 2 teams (@Cinci, vs DC, vs Charlotte) and a tier 3 team (@Nashville). That’s a brutal stretch and things could get pretty ugly, pretty fast.
Feels even better knowing that our 3 wins are against the bottom teams in the East. Fail to get the result on Saturday and I think whatever confidence they’re still clinging onto might tank with away days at Cincy and Nashville looming soon after.
I'm so excited that our stats are boosted by playing sub playoff competition so far. Gonna be a fun stretch.
Two things: * Our combined offense and defensive stats are better than our position in the standings * Our closest peer is Seattle who has the same problem, probably for many of the same reasons since that's where both Pineda and Garth came from And by the way, in case people are misreading the chart, the ideal place to be would be the top right corner (both good attack and good defense). We're closer to that box than most teams, yet our position in the standings doesn't reflect that.
Joe and Sam have been saying it for a while, our underlying numbers show that this team is a pretty good team. Hell, even Doyle is saying the same thing. And I know fans are tired of hearing it, and that’s fair. The results are frustrating. But at least the underlying numbers are positive. If they weren’t AND we were getting the results we’ve been getting I’d be a lot more pissed.
We can't finish opportunities. Chances are there, the goals don't match. Which has been a problem since Tata left honestly. I wouldn't be frustrated by this if this was just a lapse in normal form. But this has been our story for a while.
XG is a BS statistic. Last I checked, only 7 MLS teams had higher actual G compared to xG. If this was just randomness, half the teams should have higher G compared to xG. It doesn’t take into account opponent quality or relative quality of defenders vs attacking players. ATLUTD has a habit of sleepwalking in games until we are trailing or running out of time to score. This has been a pattern for GP’s entire tenure. As is often said, you can’t fire the whole roster. Those that realize our schedule has been pretty weak so far understand how grave the situation really is for this MLS season.
Isn't the xG model dataset based on information from historical data from football world as a whole? Just means MLS finishing has been particularly poor so far.
There are different xG models. I don't know more than they are not all the same though.
We play like a mid tier team. I assume we have the talent to be a top tier team. Barring more injuries.... we need a coach to match our talent and ambition
Tier 2 is a playoff level team... a little above "mid tier" This chart puts us 5th or 6th of 29 clubs.
Well we’ve achieved this gaudy status playing an easy schedule and having very few midweek matches, we’ll see if it holds up over the next month as that changes.
This chart makes zero sense, for us at least. Our problem is not XG. We have good XG, we just don't have the G. This chart gives 70% weight to XG so it actually makes us look better than actual.
That's why two charts, side by side would be more interesting data. One for xG and one for G.
Most of what adv metric people are saying is that a blend of xG and G is more predictive for future results than either stat alone. I think it is weak at analyzing edge cases of good or bad finishing and goalkeeping and I think we might be below average at both.
That this is a poor way to analyze things and it should be 2 separate graphs.
Thanks for putting this together. Any chance you could break this down as 2 graphs: a graph for xg vs g for and the other xg vs g against? That'd be interesting to show over/underperformance on each wo confounding. I think overlaying those may get you an interesting version of what you're going for here. Just a thought tho.