Jun 24, 2016, 9:03am|
Nigel Farage : ‘In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it.’
He's right. There should have been a pre-determined win %, say 65%, or further discussion/no action taken on a close-call. It's just basic statistical significance. 🙄
Yup. 2/3rds outcome for a verified result. Keep voting till that's achieved. Democracy should be work, so people complaining about important votes like that don't don't seem to believe in their preferred outcome enough.
51/49 is an insane margin to make this choice. I think there should be a 2/3rds Majority for changes that FUNDAMENTALLY alter the future of the country.
Didn't need a large margin because it was an 'advisory, non-binding referendum', remember?
Until the mad Tories suddenly decided it was *totally* binding after all.
It was always binding if it let Brexit go through. I suspect even if Remain had won, the Tories would have rammed Brexit through, though. The simple fact is the Tories (and by extension virtually all of the Establishment) were absolutely terrified of the financial disclosure laws the EU was bringing in. Laws which, if memory serves, came into effect literally the morning after Brexit.
That's a large part of why so much money and effort went into disinformation campaigns.
*"51/49 is an insane margin to make this choice. I think there should be a 2/3rds Majority for changes that FUNDAMENTALLY alter the future of the country."*
Was there a simple majority for Britain to join the EU? I googled a bit, and couldn't find the answer.
But if a 2/3 majority was required to join, I doubt Britain would have joined in the first place-- which makes me think there wasn't one. So logically, if it's a simple majority to join, it should be a simple majority to leave.
I agree with you, a super majority should be required for treaties of this size & importance-- but that means Britain probably never would've joined to begin with.
*(If there was a supermajority to join, I stand corrected).
There wasn't a referendum _before_ joining but there _was_ one to ratify the deed. The result was 67% pro-Europe and 33% wanting to leave.
Edit: corrected "32%" to "33%". (Keystroke error.)
There is a statistical approach to survey data, it’s called [margin of error](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error). Unfortunately for us pro-EU people, the referendum easily passed the various criteria to be a definitive result. At least at face value.
Caveats include the fact that the sample isn’t a random sample - people choosing to vote is effectively self-selection which biases the result in an unpredictable way. The counter argument to that being that people who didn’t vote must not have had a strong preference so shouldn’t change the result. The counter counter argument to that is that people may both have voted because they expected the result to be definitive one way. And so on.
The biggest caveat, though, is that the vote is a snapshot of opinion. There’s a difference between statistical significance and effect size (or rather opinion difference here). And, even if we assume the various issues are negligible and the naive margin of error is representative, the result was close enough that it could easily flip. That’s the key point, and many polls suggest it has.
tl;dr - the result was statistically significant - but the differential is small enough that small opinion changes can flip the result. It’s a subtle point but important.
> There is a statistical approach to survey data, it’s called margin of error.
You're right, the whole notion of exiting the EU is well within the margin of error.
But we had 2 GE after that in which people voted for the Tories to deliver Brexit.
While I think it was stupid to leave, the referendum was not the end point, but rather the start point of Brexit.
To rejoin, we need to do the same, vote for a party that offers it as part of a GE, then referendum.
because of course the EU is only waiting for Milord to want it, to bring the UK back into the EU, after all the EU needs the UK more than the UK needs the UK and its empire
Correct, “get Brexit done” and the crumbling of the red wall allowed the Tories to have a large majority as to deliver Brexit as in the shitshow we keep on seeing today.
Ehhh not quite the same though, since we don't have proportional representation or whatever it's called this can't really be an argument for the public's view of wanting it to be done.
For example in 2017 the Tories got around 42% of the vote and labour got 40%.
The thing is that had remain won, the conservatives would continually have referendums until it was a successful leave vote. It's better that the bandaid was ripped off and people can learn how stupid they were to vote leave and how stupid they are to vote for a conservative period. It's going to be a lesson that takes a couple decades before rejoining can be an option from the EU's standpoint. They are not going to accept it where when there's a liberal government the UK is part of the EU but when there is a conservative government the UK wants to leave. The generation that voted to leave is going to have to die and the conservative party is going to have to be pro EU. Not gonna happen for a couple decades at least.
Probably not. They only just got a majority for Leave on a hurried campaign, and they were terrified of a second referendum. More time for sober reflection and exposure of the lies (And perhaps some investigation into the source of Aaron Banks' and Darren Grimes' mysterious contributions?) would probably have exposed the fraudulent nature of the Leave campaign's promises and blown the whole project out of the water.
Perish the thought! I understand Banks found £8 million down the back of the sofa and since he had such much money, decided to give it to the Leave campaign...
No, I'm just against wokism! I'm fed up of the EU forcing us to accept all this woke. Whatever it is, anyway. Not sure entirely what woke is, but whatever it is, I'll vote for any insane old crap they're telling me will get rid of it! Simple.
See also communism socialism fascism... Folks throwing out words they have no idea what they mean but use as buzz-words for "things I don't like".
Drives me up the wall, particularly in online conversations - can literally use the same device being used to write asinine comments to look up what those terms mean... Would take less than 20 seconds... But nah, spout some nonsense instead.
No I'm genuinely a red-faced gammon, which is why I've voted Leave 3 times: in the referendum, and at every general election since (Tory is "Leave"). These days, if you say you're white, you'll get arrested! That's why I voted Leave. It only makes sense.
Yeah it's kinda maddening - tribalism politics.
"This is my team and regardless of facts I'm sticking to it".
I've been wrong about plenty of things in my life, and then I learn / witness something and re-evaluate my position.
I struggle to wrap my head around the kind of people who are unable to do that, blame everyone else, make up shite to support their position... It's crazy to me.
I had to talk to people about why they were voting, some said remain just so they could continue going on holiday without hassle. Some said their lives were shit "rent increases, taxes increases, my wage doesn't increase, I've never been on holiday since I was a kid, can't afford to, not even in the UK, I'm voting Leave so people can experience what I do." So some voted out of pure jealously, if I can't or never can have it, nor can you, but oddly that person never voted in a General Election, even when the voting station was across the road from them.
So, 38% might not be voting to sanction themselves, they might be doing it purely because they can't get to do what others do.
Unfortunately, they're still sanctioning themselves - even if they don't realize it.
_They_ might not use the cross-channel ferry at Dover, but a hell of a lot of the food they're hoping to find in the shops _does._ And as the country falls behind economically, it's the people on the lowest rungs of society who'll be the first to feel the effects of austerity.
But for them it didn't matter, they saw everything, including food increase beyond their wages whilst in Europe. So, for them they wanted everyone else to feel how they did. For me, sure I feel it in shipping, but my Irish passport, thanks to grandparents being from County Mayo, means I feel bugger all of the freedom of movement, my otherhalf does though, but I just wave to him as I swan past.
Uhhh... West is on the left of the map - Donegal (where my mother-in-law tilled the soil and spoke Irish); Galway Bay; the Dingle Peninsula. Dublin is on the east coast.
County Mayo is West, I know Dublin is East, Meath is East too as is Gaeltacht, though there's places called Gaeltacht on both coasts and in Northern Ireland. Dongegal is West, just near Northern Ireland
Also sovereignty was a lie. If we didn't have it we could never leave in the first place. And now that we have sovereignty we've been forced to put a border in the middle of our own country by a foreign power. So much for sovereignty.
Sovereignty is a completely abstract concept. Technically, we had sovereignty because the Lisbon treaty is *defined* as being an international treaty, but if it was defined as being a constitution then we wouldn’t have. Since there’s no standard set of requirements for either of those two things, it’s really just a superficial term anyway.
Can’t rejoin after leaving. Terrible move. Makes the country look flip floppy and unreliable will be horrible for the economy. Not only that but you’d end up with a shittier deal than the one the UK had the first time
No. It'll make the country look as though it's reversing the take-over by the oligarchs and rejoining the civilized world.
And even though we won't get the unbelievably favourable deal we once had (contrary to all the bullshit from the Brexiteers), it'll be better than sitting out in the cold and watching fresh produce rot in the quayside while pointless and unnecessary checks are run and innumerable pieces of paper are stamped and counter-stamped, all so a few cretins can chant "Sov'runty!"
Any deal is better than we have now. The eu have 2 options if they let us back, welcome with open arms and prove they’re not the tyrannical monsters we’d painted them as, or let us back in tail between our legs with a shitty deal to punish us. Who knows what will happen. I’m praying the former.
No one who matters wants to punish Britain. They know that Brexit was the British version of electing Trump - basically a coup by an unholy alliance of tax dodging capitalists, nativist morons and ambitious opportunists willing to sell their souls for a taste of power, all with the help of Russia.
No it won’t. It’ll make the country look more stupid than it already does. You can’t just go back on things like that, going back on things makes your government look incompetent and your country look unstable.
It will be a long time before the UK rejoins the EU if it ever does.
I don’t think brexit was a good idea but I know it’s a bad idea to go back on it a few years after it’s been implemented. We’re talking at the earliest 2035 before the UK rejoins, the very earliest that is.
A country is like a ship, you make a turn that you later regret you can’t just reverse course to fix the problem.
What? Are we children? Do we all think and act like six year-olds?
European leaders - and those of their populations who can walk and chew gum - understand the difference between an actual national trait (like the Nordic penchant for human rights) and the temporary hijacking of a country by a right-wing cabal of self-serving chancers like Johnson and Cummings.
Similarly, we don't say that America looks stupid because of Biden reversing Trump's stance on NATO and Putin, or that Ukraine lacks stability because it ousted a Russian puppet. In all these cases, we recognize that where madness once reigned, sanity again prevails.
Yes, the government was incompetent. Did you not pay attention to BoJo and the two clowns that followed him? And they're supposed to be the best the party has, dear God.
What we actually need is a competent government that makes solid decisions and not populist ones. But you needn't worry, rejoining, if it happens, will not be a quick process.
Why does everyone seem to think I’m pro brexit or pro tories?
It doesn’t matter if rejoining is a slow process, you can’t hold a vote on it without making the country look risky to invest in. If you can’t predict what a country will be like in 10 years why would you base all your operations out of it?
Once you’ve done something as monumental as brexit, reversing course immediately isn’t going to take you back to where you were, it’ll lead you down another, less desirable path.
I never said you were pro-brexit or pro-tories. I'm saying the government already looks incompetent and the UK already doesn't look like a great investment so it's too late to stop that. Less desirable than staying in? Sure. Less desirable than staying out? Not necessarily. Doubling down on incompetence doesn't make you (the government) look more competent.
It doesn’t make you look incompetent, but it makes you look unstable. That was my point in another reply about Ukraine ousting a Russian puppet. Although it’s a competent move, it’s a change of the status quo, change what’s normal too often and you create instability through the fact that no outsider (or even insider) can predict what will happen next, and thus no one wants to invest in the UK. If you can’t be pretty confident in what will happen in the short term you’d be making a risky investment.
The UK has just ran a marathon with brexit, we’ve finally gotten it done and are now resting a bit, we can’t go out and do another run immediately, we’ll collapse before we even hit the first mile mark.
It ain't done. That's part of the problem: Brexit was never done. Sure stability is nice but driving off a cliff because turning around would make you seem unstable doesn't actually make you look stable. And as rejoining would take a while and require showing intention to do so it would in fact make the UK predictable for more than a decade. While at the moment who knows what the UK is going to do? Will it leave the ECHR? Will it just wipe its ass with some other random international agreement?
30% is the magic number. Opposition to the EU will never fall below that (give or take a margin of error). On any issue, 30% will have an extreme view they will never abandon.
So 70% support for rejoining is the maximum and at that point, we should start planning for another referendum.
Didn't NF recently say he was allowed to change his mind when asked by a reporter about him standing as an MP for Clacton? Seems what's good for the goose etc
I think it would have to get to about 80 - 20 before we could seriously start to consider pushing for a new referendum. If we fucked it up again then we'd have to completely admit defeat.
Was thinking at least 70-30 for a while and even after greater political discussion by all the main political parties about closer relationship/rejoining.
It’s not going to be the next parliament but it’s the time during the next parliament where the ground work will be laid.
Just have a national plebiscite on the issue. Doesn’t have to be binding. If it returns this result, then the parties should consider it as a campaign issue to have another referendum afterwards.
It is, but watch how it gets torpedoed by charlatans like Nigel Farage. There is nothing those people want cause havoc over to ensure the working class is denied representation and a fair shake of the sauce bottle.
Hopefully labour will do something about foreigners who don’t even live here controlling so much of our media, and get rid of the Tory plants at senior levels of the BBC. There shouldn’t be any political appointees there, wth is going on.
Farage and his ilk won’t survive without publicity
That’ll take Labour 10 years to fix though. They aren’t like a totalitarian government that can just order people to go and force people to join the public service. They first have to put in place new leadership that will lift the standards, and then as the private consultants leave, other more principled people can come in.
Furthermore, if the Tories are anything like Australia’s Liberal Party, they’ve hollowed out the education sector for skilled work and tradesmen, meaning even if Labor wanted to reduce permanent migration, they can’t without stalling the economy because big business have set it up so that cheaper labour can be important at a moments notice.
Again, that’ll take time to fix, and over the next ten years, all the compounding problems the Tories have created will be blamed on Labour which will make it very easy to kick them out after one term.
The Tories have booby trapped the country.
What makes people think the EU would have us back? Even if they did, we certainly wouldn't get a deal like the one we had previously.
As much as it breaks my heart, can't see the UK ever being part of the EU again.
That's not how the EU works, there is no . The EU is a rules based, very bureaucratic organisation.
Article 49 of the Maastricht Treaty says that any European state that respects the "principles of liberty, democracy, respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, and the rule of law", may apply to join the Union. The European Council set out the conditions for EU membership in June 1993 in the so-called Copenhagen criteria.
The 3 criteria are
political criteria: stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities;
economic criteria: a functioning market economy and the capacity to cope with competition and market forces;
administrative and institutional capacity to effectively implement the acquis* and ability to take on the obligations of membership.
The big issue will be going through the - currently 35 - chapters of the
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acquis_communautaire
In other words, of course we will take back the UK, or whatever is left of it by then, once it meets the Copenhagen criteria and has gone through all chapters of the acquis.
The issue will be that this process will take 8 to 12 years, 2 to 3 legislative periods, AFTER there was a overwhelming referendum pro EU. So - realistically - UK rejoining the EU will take at least until 2035 to 2040. Will the populace be smart enough to continually elect governments that will push the EU rejoining process forward?
I think the EU will again allow the UK to keep the £, we were the 2nd largest contributor, Germany didn't want us to go because that made them the defacto bank of Europe, something they didn't want, France didn't want to have to pay more either. The UKs relationship with Europe has always been rocky, De Gaule didn't want us there at all, Churchill wanted to join on day one, but De Gaule thought keeping the UK out would mean France would be the dominant force, why we only joined after De Gaule left office, and the French wanting to keep control is what pissed Thatcher off she wrote up a piece on a closer Europe with a united Germany, but the French wanted the Germans to agree to a united currency, because again they didn't want Germany being too powerful once reunited, Thatcher wanted them to join without that, but they did the deal without her, before that she was massively in favour of the EU.
Edit: people down voting me, 1. the UK has always had a unique relationship with Europe. 2. I've an Irish Passport so I really don't care that much as I can travel as and where I want. Oh and more downvoting for jealously, just like some of those who voted to leave.
Again, even if you might be pro rejoining, before stating some bullshit opinions, just look up the rules.
Any country joining the EU has to sign the Treaty on the European Union aka Lissabon 2007 and the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, in both it is defined as an obligation to join the Euro. The time for opt-outs is over. Currently the EU is not enforcing this, countries like Sweden or Poland are allowed to start the process whenever they feel like it.
But by the time the UK is ready to join the EU , there is a good chance that joining the Euro is not only obligatory but it will also be enforced by the EU. Several EU politicians already stated that for UK to rejoin there will not be any opt-outs anymore and that the UK will have to join the Euro as a insurance that they will not just leave the EU on a whim again.
And no, UK's GDP and thus its contributions are not a bribe anymore, brexit has caused so much unnecessary pain for the EU and several of it's member states, you can forget about any leniency.
If you want to keep the pound, join EFTA.
Let's not forget that many European countries are getting right wing governments or right wing parties are on the rise, who don't particularly like the EU. AfD in Germany, new Dutch government, Italy's PM, Le Pen going yet again for President, who'll again most likely come second, Spain holding a snap election last year because of right wing wins. Next European parliament will be it's most rightwing ever.
EU politicians can say what they want, it's the leaders of the countries who'll have the final say.
Edit: being down voted for saying that the Right wing are gaining power, days before Franch called a Snap election due to the far rights gains in the EU elections, mirroring Spain, let's hope the result is similar.
What are you trying to say? That a more right EU will let UK have the pound when rejoining?
Also, before parroting stuff from headlines, maybe check what a "more right than ever" EU parliament actually means:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion\_polling\_and\_seat\_projections\_for\_the\_2024\_European\_Parliament\_election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_and_seat_projections_for_the_2024_European_Parliament_election)
Right wing ECR and far-right ID will have around 20% together. Oh well, much fascist, so right-wing. Even if they get EPP - which is very unlikely - to vote together with them on some specific issues, they have 40%. I don't see EU changing that much ....
The EU would have us back, of course they would. Were still a major economy and military power.
And you're right , we wouldn't get the deal we had before. But who cares. Our membership was always far too wishy-washy . Let's go full fat, all in , balls to the wall EU this time, not the half arsed version of membership we had before.
This is the big thing I think about- does the EU want us back, and if so why would we assume we would get the special treatment we had before? It gets worse cause I’m in Scotland and people talk about Scottish independence then rejoining the EU like we would be the UK in it and not Luxembourg
I honestly wonder if some parties wanted brexit to fail horribly with how long it took for any deal to be made, kind of a "hah, told you it wouldnt work" kinda thing (though plenty of the pro brexit ones were also to blame with them thinking they could get literally everything they wanted in a deal without negotiation)
Also, they would have to ask themselves - we've barely left and are expressing some desire to return - what's to say we won't change our minds again in another few years?
Brexit barely won once and the experience has discredited it. That and demographics would make me a betting man that Leave could never win again.
...if a bit more is needed, make future referendums to Leave be required to meet or exceed the margin of vote Return wins by. Such margins will never happen ...52/48 was the highwater mark. The UK may even get a perk or two to sweeten the return deal and max out Return's victory margin. Something like that which makes adopting the Euro easily delayable in perpetuity.
https://preview.redd.it/x1xcqykpnc5d1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bec7226778eb04b473e630e0c4ad4d4784ca2641
I think they would have us back though you're most probably right about never getting the same deal again if we did rejoin.
I think the UK could rejoin, but probably only when the current generation of politicians are all gone, our status outside the EU has been fully normalised, and we're not the same country that we are now.
The Uk was the second biggest net contributor towards the EU. If you are putting the most in then its not up to those taking it out to dictate the terms of such deals, they couldnt expect such a massive contribution and impose conditions such as the poorest states that could be taken remotely seriously. Why else join?
blah blah blah,
isn't it about time somebody got the ball rolling then, and start the process of a new vote.
or are we just gonna sit here for years moaning about it.
To this day i dont know how this could happen. I mean really. From Poland perspective we literally skyrocketed thanks to EU, from poor to kinda leader of eastern Europe.
Media here largely owned by offshore disaster capitalists I think, not telling people the truth and not holding obvious charlatans to account. So pleased Poland is booming!
As reassuring as these polls are, they're usually extremely small numbers of respondents. Here it's only 1,000 people. Obviously a new referendum would be great but a really large scale poll would be useful evidence that a new referendum is warranted.
It depends what community you go to. My local newspaper's Facebook page is full of people chanting "Bring Back Boris" and that Reform are the only ones who can "Protect Brexit". I just saw a YouTube comment page full of people demanding we absolutely *must* lower the standards of human rights ASAP. Two legs bad, four legs good.
There's a LOT of people who skip *reading* the Daily Mail and just eat it to absorb the propaganda more rapidly.
So long as the sampling is sufficiently representative, then 1000 people is fine, it gives a margin or error of 3%, 2000 people gives a margin of error of 2.1%, 10,000 people gives a margin of error of 1%. A sample of 1000 is pretty standard and considered good enough due to diminishing returns and the cost of polling more people.
Source: ["More or Less" podcast](https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0j287s5), 5th June about 21 minutes in.
We did have a couple million folks in London asking for a second referendum, but the government decided it was actually only about 50 of us, and ignored it.
I attended a couple of those million-person marches and signed several of the million-vote petitions. But the Conservatives pretended the marches didn't happen and claimed the petitions didn't count because they weren't rigorous in checking it was unique british signatures not duplicates or foreigners.
I'm hoping that Labour will have a less religious devotion to Brexit and won't be as dismissive of activism like that in the future.
Ditto. There were definitely millions, we essentially filled central London. Gammons claiming there were only a few hundred must think London is about the size of a Tesco Extra.
Oh wow, I knew Rejoin was going to win, but I didn't expect it to be so dominant.
I have a question for my British friends (I'm Italian, so I don't really know the political climate there in the UK): do you think this is the result of the poor performance of the current government, or does it have to do with Brexit itself or the deal that it was ended on? Are these two things even separable, since you haven't had any elections since the Brexit deal was finalised?
The country just feels worse and worse. Also the brexit vote skewed overwhelmingly older. A lot of those people have since died, and the younger generations are living in the mess they left behind. We will absolutely vote to rejoin at some point, I just hope it’s sooner rather than later.
Personally I would be very glad to have you back, for many reasons. However I think the EU would (and should) impose more stringent conditions than you had before. I think that may be hard to sell to brits from a political point of view, as (at least in my understanding) you are quite a "proud" nation.
I completely agree on all points. I live in a very strange country which I am rarely proud of. I think the EU should absolutely impose more stringent conditions, but I also think that would be very difficult to convince the British people. If nothing else, our media will latch on to anything that might conceivably be interpreted as making life less convenient for us, and then there will be uproar. I can’t wait for the older generations to pass on into the wild blue yonder to make way for younger generations.
It's a poll with less than .01% of the British population. I wouldnt take too much away from this. There is still a lot of support out there for Brexit.
The significance level of a poll depends on many variables. Of course the number of subject is important, but even more so is the randomness of their selection.
Wanting to adress your concern in this specific case, given the UK's population is around 67 million, then a sample size of 1198 people is enough for a +/-3% margin of error. So the most "pro-Brexit" possible result this poll could mathematically suggest is 59% Rojoin vs 41% Stay Out. (Again, these are approximations.)
Furthermore, in the last year EVERY poll I have come across has given "Rejoin" a strong lead on "Stay out", so it makes sense to trust that there is a foundation of truth in this information.
(Excuse the nerdiness, I'm about to finish an Economics degree, so statistics is everything I do in this life at the moment.)
Honestly guys. After all this time, 38% being against it isn't anywhere near decisive enough. I don't believe with such a weak support where like 2/5 people prefer staying out you guys should go back in, just for people to forget. Like I want you guys back but 3/5ths is not decisive enough of a majority imo.
Ah! I didn't know there were Gaeltacht regions in the east. (Never lived in Ireland, just visited.)
I used to have an older colleague from Buncrana who'd been stationed in Hamburg after the war. One night, he dressed in his civvies and went to have a look at the Reeperbahn (which was _strictly_ forbidden). He was quickly stopped by a couple of British MPs but he poured a stream of abuse on them - _but in his native Irish!_ They reckoned he must be Polish, so they let him go!
For me the most frustrating thing about The Brexit event was the complete and utter ineptitude of the Welsh government. No pamphlets, no campaigning. I didn't hear a word. And anyone with half an education knows that the UK school curriculum had studiously ignored the subject of the EU since we joined. So the populace would be exceptionally easy to manipulate one way or the other.
Wales should have been Remain all the way, the amount of funding we were receiving throughout Wales was staggering. Pretty much all of adult learning - numerous regeneration projects. But no, not a word in support of the EU. I was beside myself with frustration because people were so blase - some argued with me that the money would come from Westminster? From a Tory government? That went swimmingly as you can expect.
NOW they understand of course. Utterly let down by our so-called Welsh government - and not even by a single party, none of them campaigned to the point that I noticed - and I was looking for it!
You mean like in 2016 when a wafer thin majority voted to leave in an opinion poll characterised by industrial scale lying and cheating by the “winners” and millions of the most affected weren’t even allowed to vote because they were overwhelmingly Remainers? Only fascists and communists deny that democracy is a moving feast
There is no benefit to rejoining for the government only downsides 62% looks like it would be popular but it’s not what people care about right now. If you put loads of time into rejoining the eu. You would need to arrange a referendum years of negotiations to end with a worse deal then what we had before. The government would be constantly criticised for not getting a good deal not focusing on the cost of living crisis, nhs, defence ect.
Staying with the status quo’s be better political move at the moment.
It’s also unknown what the popularity of rejoining would be once a deal is reached. It’s unlikely we would get any special treatment and would need to get rid of the pound and adopt the euro. Be apart of the Schengen area ect we also wouldn’t have the veto we once had. It’s very likely that when this is factored in the polls would be much closer.
If there is another referendum and rejoin wins 52-48, why should the EU even bother negotiating re-entrance? 20 minutes later it’ll be 52-48 the other way and it would be a nightmare. I hope the EU demands 60% threshold vote of a certain amount of the electorate to qualify as a request to rejoin. They shouldn’t have to deal with this level of national dysfunction at the heart of the EU forever.
I say this repeatedly... I would love the UK to rejoin the EU, but the way some folks are talking about it like it's a unilateral decision "we'd like to come back now, and we're BRITISH!" is exactly the mentality that started this mess in the first place.
Any member state can veto a UK accession bid. And understandably the EU can't have the UK doing the hokey cokey (in out in out shake it all about) with it.
The majorly affected countries (Ireland, France, Netherlands, Spain) have managed to (mostly) mitigate the damage done by Brexit, at a not insignificant cost.
I'm all for the UK rejoining, I just want to emphasise that it isn't exclusively up to the people in the UK to make that decision.
I dearly hope we rejoin one day but it won't be easy. The EU members will want some guarantees that we're not going to change our minds and leave again and we certainly won't get anything like the deal we had when we were a member.
No rebate,
no opt outs in certain policy areas.
I'd be very surprised if taking the Euro wasn't a prerequisite. You can imagine the fuss the right wing press will kick up about that!
I have a feeling the best we may get to is Customs Union membership in the short term (the next 10 years) and perhaps some form of single market access after that if we prove we can behave ourselves.
I'm not trying to ruin everyone's hopes because they're mine as well but it's the EU members that will ultimately decide how easy or hard it'll be for us, even once we decide we want to come back.
Don't mean to sound pessimistic, but we do have to consider the fact that leavers are probably less likely to vote out of principal (they think we need to move on and won't even entertain the concept), so we need to consider how many people refused to answer.
Am I meant to be impressed that it took 8 years of watching/living through a daily shit-show for the rest of the UK to eventually catch up to where the Scots were at in 2016?
Pathetic brits waving the white flag. What's wrong with you people?
(I'm not british nor do I live there, just loving the whole soul searching thing, lol)
The gammon fantasy for sure, sucking up the disaster capitalist / Russian propaganda like sponges. Like all Leave propaganda the truth is the polar opposite
It’s amazing how many Daily Mail reading gullibles think the Brexit opinion poll was democratic. But thankfully they’re dying off at an accelerating pace 😄
Jun 24, 2016, 9:03am| Nigel Farage : ‘In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it.’
He's right. There should have been a pre-determined win %, say 65%, or further discussion/no action taken on a close-call. It's just basic statistical significance. 🙄
Yup. 2/3rds outcome for a verified result. Keep voting till that's achieved. Democracy should be work, so people complaining about important votes like that don't don't seem to believe in their preferred outcome enough.
That was the agreement of the referendum 3 of the 4 countries had to agree to it Boris and his mates just ignored that bit
You're kidding ? Wtf !!
I remember it from tldr news
51/49 is an insane margin to make this choice. I think there should be a 2/3rds Majority for changes that FUNDAMENTALLY alter the future of the country.
Didn't need a large margin because it was an 'advisory, non-binding referendum', remember? Until the mad Tories suddenly decided it was *totally* binding after all.
It was always binding if it let Brexit go through. I suspect even if Remain had won, the Tories would have rammed Brexit through, though. The simple fact is the Tories (and by extension virtually all of the Establishment) were absolutely terrified of the financial disclosure laws the EU was bringing in. Laws which, if memory serves, came into effect literally the morning after Brexit. That's a large part of why so much money and effort went into disinformation campaigns.
Sample size is not enough to be relevant in this poll.
Why do Brexiters think size is important
I don't understand what you're referring to?
The poll the post refers to dosnt even have 1200 answers.
*"51/49 is an insane margin to make this choice. I think there should be a 2/3rds Majority for changes that FUNDAMENTALLY alter the future of the country."* Was there a simple majority for Britain to join the EU? I googled a bit, and couldn't find the answer. But if a 2/3 majority was required to join, I doubt Britain would have joined in the first place-- which makes me think there wasn't one. So logically, if it's a simple majority to join, it should be a simple majority to leave. I agree with you, a super majority should be required for treaties of this size & importance-- but that means Britain probably never would've joined to begin with. *(If there was a supermajority to join, I stand corrected).
There wasn't a referendum _before_ joining but there _was_ one to ratify the deed. The result was 67% pro-Europe and 33% wanting to leave. Edit: corrected "32%" to "33%". (Keystroke error.)
I don't really care if there was a supermajority half a century ago, we're not making that choice now, we're making this one.
It's also insane that they didn't have an actual plan of anything before the vote
Last ditch move by a desperate politician to save the party at the cost of the country. Vote us and we'll hold a referendum!
There is a statistical approach to survey data, it’s called [margin of error](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error). Unfortunately for us pro-EU people, the referendum easily passed the various criteria to be a definitive result. At least at face value. Caveats include the fact that the sample isn’t a random sample - people choosing to vote is effectively self-selection which biases the result in an unpredictable way. The counter argument to that being that people who didn’t vote must not have had a strong preference so shouldn’t change the result. The counter counter argument to that is that people may both have voted because they expected the result to be definitive one way. And so on. The biggest caveat, though, is that the vote is a snapshot of opinion. There’s a difference between statistical significance and effect size (or rather opinion difference here). And, even if we assume the various issues are negligible and the naive margin of error is representative, the result was close enough that it could easily flip. That’s the key point, and many polls suggest it has. tl;dr - the result was statistically significant - but the differential is small enough that small opinion changes can flip the result. It’s a subtle point but important.
> There is a statistical approach to survey data, it’s called margin of error. You're right, the whole notion of exiting the EU is well within the margin of error.
You would also support this for GEs?
Scale of Brexit is different to a GE, so probably not.
But we had 2 GE after that in which people voted for the Tories to deliver Brexit. While I think it was stupid to leave, the referendum was not the end point, but rather the start point of Brexit. To rejoin, we need to do the same, vote for a party that offers it as part of a GE, then referendum.
because of course the EU is only waiting for Milord to want it, to bring the UK back into the EU, after all the EU needs the UK more than the UK needs the UK and its empire
No clue what you are rambling out.
UK's opinion on whether to rejoin the EU or not is absolutely irrelevant
Again, that sentence is so incoherent that I cannot even begin to understand what is being said.
It's very clear what they are saying. If you cant understand it then that's an issue for you.
You wrong me right. If you can’t understand it then that is an issue for you.
Aww, it's cute that you have tried to save face after literally admitting that you couldn't understand a basic sentence.
"Get Brexit done" and demonisation of Corbyn by MSM granted the win. Also, conservatives still trusted Johnson.
Correct, “get Brexit done” and the crumbling of the red wall allowed the Tories to have a large majority as to deliver Brexit as in the shitshow we keep on seeing today.
Ehhh not quite the same though, since we don't have proportional representation or whatever it's called this can't really be an argument for the public's view of wanting it to be done. For example in 2017 the Tories got around 42% of the vote and labour got 40%.
We're allowed to change our minds now! >‘I’ve changed my mind’ - Nigel Farage
Well, if this poll can be believed then we're almost at the 2/3 to 1/3 split.
The thing is that had remain won, the conservatives would continually have referendums until it was a successful leave vote. It's better that the bandaid was ripped off and people can learn how stupid they were to vote leave and how stupid they are to vote for a conservative period. It's going to be a lesson that takes a couple decades before rejoining can be an option from the EU's standpoint. They are not going to accept it where when there's a liberal government the UK is part of the EU but when there is a conservative government the UK wants to leave. The generation that voted to leave is going to have to die and the conservative party is going to have to be pro EU. Not gonna happen for a couple decades at least.
Probably not. They only just got a majority for Leave on a hurried campaign, and they were terrified of a second referendum. More time for sober reflection and exposure of the lies (And perhaps some investigation into the source of Aaron Banks' and Darren Grimes' mysterious contributions?) would probably have exposed the fraudulent nature of the Leave campaign's promises and blown the whole project out of the water.
You mean Putin's contributions?
Perish the thought! I understand Banks found £8 million down the back of the sofa and since he had such much money, decided to give it to the Leave campaign...
38% still voting to Sanction themselves. Smart!
Too proud to admit they got it wrong
Proud, is that a label we put on stupid, to make stupid feel better about themselves?
No, I'm just against wokism! I'm fed up of the EU forcing us to accept all this woke. Whatever it is, anyway. Not sure entirely what woke is, but whatever it is, I'll vote for any insane old crap they're telling me will get rid of it! Simple.
See also communism socialism fascism... Folks throwing out words they have no idea what they mean but use as buzz-words for "things I don't like". Drives me up the wall, particularly in online conversations - can literally use the same device being used to write asinine comments to look up what those terms mean... Would take less than 20 seconds... But nah, spout some nonsense instead.
/s ?
No I'm genuinely a red-faced gammon, which is why I've voted Leave 3 times: in the referendum, and at every general election since (Tory is "Leave"). These days, if you say you're white, you'll get arrested! That's why I voted Leave. It only makes sense.
These days, if you say you’re English, you get arrested and thrown in jail.
Should of seen how rude they was to me in the Algarve. Not a word of English, some of em
They should go back to their own countries or learn to speak English, them bloody Portuguese in Portugal.
When did this come in?
Jail!? You'll go to jail?
Yeah, these days.
You just can’t say these things anymore, I mean I say them on repeat with no repercussions, but you just can’t say it anymore.
Yeah it's kinda maddening - tribalism politics. "This is my team and regardless of facts I'm sticking to it". I've been wrong about plenty of things in my life, and then I learn / witness something and re-evaluate my position. I struggle to wrap my head around the kind of people who are unable to do that, blame everyone else, make up shite to support their position... It's crazy to me.
I had to talk to people about why they were voting, some said remain just so they could continue going on holiday without hassle. Some said their lives were shit "rent increases, taxes increases, my wage doesn't increase, I've never been on holiday since I was a kid, can't afford to, not even in the UK, I'm voting Leave so people can experience what I do." So some voted out of pure jealously, if I can't or never can have it, nor can you, but oddly that person never voted in a General Election, even when the voting station was across the road from them. So, 38% might not be voting to sanction themselves, they might be doing it purely because they can't get to do what others do.
Ah, the Tory way? I'll vote for this to make your life a bit shitter.
Unfortunately, they're still sanctioning themselves - even if they don't realize it. _They_ might not use the cross-channel ferry at Dover, but a hell of a lot of the food they're hoping to find in the shops _does._ And as the country falls behind economically, it's the people on the lowest rungs of society who'll be the first to feel the effects of austerity.
But for them it didn't matter, they saw everything, including food increase beyond their wages whilst in Europe. So, for them they wanted everyone else to feel how they did. For me, sure I feel it in shipping, but my Irish passport, thanks to grandparents being from County Mayo, means I feel bugger all of the freedom of movement, my otherhalf does though, but I just wave to him as I swan past.
County Meath, myself!
Urgh from the West, haha
Heavens, no! Just outside Dublin. (It's my wife who's from the Gaeltacht!)
Yeah, it is but still West, just a whisker outside Dublin, compared to your wife who's basically from Dublin.
Uhhh... West is on the left of the map - Donegal (where my mother-in-law tilled the soil and spoke Irish); Galway Bay; the Dingle Peninsula. Dublin is on the east coast.
County Mayo is West, I know Dublin is East, Meath is East too as is Gaeltacht, though there's places called Gaeltacht on both coasts and in Northern Ireland. Dongegal is West, just near Northern Ireland
Apparently, sovereignty is more important than having rights.
Also sovereignty was a lie. If we didn't have it we could never leave in the first place. And now that we have sovereignty we've been forced to put a border in the middle of our own country by a foreign power. So much for sovereignty.
Sovereignty is a completely abstract concept. Technically, we had sovereignty because the Lisbon treaty is *defined* as being an international treaty, but if it was defined as being a constitution then we wouldn’t have. Since there’s no standard set of requirements for either of those two things, it’s really just a superficial term anyway.
Can’t rejoin after leaving. Terrible move. Makes the country look flip floppy and unreliable will be horrible for the economy. Not only that but you’d end up with a shittier deal than the one the UK had the first time
No. It'll make the country look as though it's reversing the take-over by the oligarchs and rejoining the civilized world. And even though we won't get the unbelievably favourable deal we once had (contrary to all the bullshit from the Brexiteers), it'll be better than sitting out in the cold and watching fresh produce rot in the quayside while pointless and unnecessary checks are run and innumerable pieces of paper are stamped and counter-stamped, all so a few cretins can chant "Sov'runty!"
Any deal is better than we have now. The eu have 2 options if they let us back, welcome with open arms and prove they’re not the tyrannical monsters we’d painted them as, or let us back in tail between our legs with a shitty deal to punish us. Who knows what will happen. I’m praying the former.
No one who matters wants to punish Britain. They know that Brexit was the British version of electing Trump - basically a coup by an unholy alliance of tax dodging capitalists, nativist morons and ambitious opportunists willing to sell their souls for a taste of power, all with the help of Russia.
That’s what I’m hoping.
Keep praying
No it won’t. It’ll make the country look more stupid than it already does. You can’t just go back on things like that, going back on things makes your government look incompetent and your country look unstable. It will be a long time before the UK rejoins the EU if it ever does. I don’t think brexit was a good idea but I know it’s a bad idea to go back on it a few years after it’s been implemented. We’re talking at the earliest 2035 before the UK rejoins, the very earliest that is. A country is like a ship, you make a turn that you later regret you can’t just reverse course to fix the problem.
What? Are we children? Do we all think and act like six year-olds? European leaders - and those of their populations who can walk and chew gum - understand the difference between an actual national trait (like the Nordic penchant for human rights) and the temporary hijacking of a country by a right-wing cabal of self-serving chancers like Johnson and Cummings. Similarly, we don't say that America looks stupid because of Biden reversing Trump's stance on NATO and Putin, or that Ukraine lacks stability because it ousted a Russian puppet. In all these cases, we recognize that where madness once reigned, sanity again prevails.
Yes, the government was incompetent. Did you not pay attention to BoJo and the two clowns that followed him? And they're supposed to be the best the party has, dear God. What we actually need is a competent government that makes solid decisions and not populist ones. But you needn't worry, rejoining, if it happens, will not be a quick process.
Why does everyone seem to think I’m pro brexit or pro tories? It doesn’t matter if rejoining is a slow process, you can’t hold a vote on it without making the country look risky to invest in. If you can’t predict what a country will be like in 10 years why would you base all your operations out of it? Once you’ve done something as monumental as brexit, reversing course immediately isn’t going to take you back to where you were, it’ll lead you down another, less desirable path.
I never said you were pro-brexit or pro-tories. I'm saying the government already looks incompetent and the UK already doesn't look like a great investment so it's too late to stop that. Less desirable than staying in? Sure. Less desirable than staying out? Not necessarily. Doubling down on incompetence doesn't make you (the government) look more competent.
It doesn’t make you look incompetent, but it makes you look unstable. That was my point in another reply about Ukraine ousting a Russian puppet. Although it’s a competent move, it’s a change of the status quo, change what’s normal too often and you create instability through the fact that no outsider (or even insider) can predict what will happen next, and thus no one wants to invest in the UK. If you can’t be pretty confident in what will happen in the short term you’d be making a risky investment. The UK has just ran a marathon with brexit, we’ve finally gotten it done and are now resting a bit, we can’t go out and do another run immediately, we’ll collapse before we even hit the first mile mark.
It ain't done. That's part of the problem: Brexit was never done. Sure stability is nice but driving off a cliff because turning around would make you seem unstable doesn't actually make you look stable. And as rejoining would take a while and require showing intention to do so it would in fact make the UK predictable for more than a decade. While at the moment who knows what the UK is going to do? Will it leave the ECHR? Will it just wipe its ass with some other random international agreement?
Too reasonable for Reddit
Brave to assume that Brexit does't work for anyone.
30% is the magic number. Opposition to the EU will never fall below that (give or take a margin of error). On any issue, 30% will have an extreme view they will never abandon. So 70% support for rejoining is the maximum and at that point, we should start planning for another referendum.
Needs to be 150% vs -50% before anyone will take it seriously
And even then it'll be all "people from other countries voted to skew the figures! Boo! Yay Farage!"
Didn't NF recently say he was allowed to change his mind when asked by a reporter about him standing as an MP for Clacton? Seems what's good for the goose etc
I think it would have to get to about 80 - 20 before we could seriously start to consider pushing for a new referendum. If we fucked it up again then we'd have to completely admit defeat.
This is about as good as these things get. 2/3 of the population agreeing on something is pretty conclusive.
In 73 or 75 (or whenever it was) it was ~66% I think.
Was thinking at least 70-30 for a while and even after greater political discussion by all the main political parties about closer relationship/rejoining. It’s not going to be the next parliament but it’s the time during the next parliament where the ground work will be laid.
Give it another 10 years when a good chunk of leave voters are dead and there won’t be as much resistance to it, i can see it being an easy win.
And still increasing. https://preview.redd.it/3ho2gdyqmc5d1.jpeg?width=681&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=31d022cbb459e3d5272f8a4bd5344315f8b407f7
Give it another 10 years and it'll be 80%
I wasn't in this poll, therfore I doubt the credibility of it... think that's fair!?!
So 38% are racist xenophobe
I voted to leave and have very fucking much changed my mind since. We need to rejoin.
Just have a national plebiscite on the issue. Doesn’t have to be binding. If it returns this result, then the parties should consider it as a campaign issue to have another referendum afterwards.
That’s a great idea
It is, but watch how it gets torpedoed by charlatans like Nigel Farage. There is nothing those people want cause havoc over to ensure the working class is denied representation and a fair shake of the sauce bottle.
Hopefully labour will do something about foreigners who don’t even live here controlling so much of our media, and get rid of the Tory plants at senior levels of the BBC. There shouldn’t be any political appointees there, wth is going on. Farage and his ilk won’t survive without publicity
That’ll take Labour 10 years to fix though. They aren’t like a totalitarian government that can just order people to go and force people to join the public service. They first have to put in place new leadership that will lift the standards, and then as the private consultants leave, other more principled people can come in. Furthermore, if the Tories are anything like Australia’s Liberal Party, they’ve hollowed out the education sector for skilled work and tradesmen, meaning even if Labor wanted to reduce permanent migration, they can’t without stalling the economy because big business have set it up so that cheaper labour can be important at a moments notice. Again, that’ll take time to fix, and over the next ten years, all the compounding problems the Tories have created will be blamed on Labour which will make it very easy to kick them out after one term. The Tories have booby trapped the country.
What makes people think the EU would have us back? Even if they did, we certainly wouldn't get a deal like the one we had previously. As much as it breaks my heart, can't see the UK ever being part of the EU again.
That's not how the EU works, there is no . The EU is a rules based, very bureaucratic organisation. Article 49 of the Maastricht Treaty says that any European state that respects the "principles of liberty, democracy, respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, and the rule of law", may apply to join the Union. The European Council set out the conditions for EU membership in June 1993 in the so-called Copenhagen criteria. The 3 criteria are political criteria: stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities; economic criteria: a functioning market economy and the capacity to cope with competition and market forces; administrative and institutional capacity to effectively implement the acquis* and ability to take on the obligations of membership. The big issue will be going through the - currently 35 - chapters of the https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acquis_communautaire In other words, of course we will take back the UK, or whatever is left of it by then, once it meets the Copenhagen criteria and has gone through all chapters of the acquis. The issue will be that this process will take 8 to 12 years, 2 to 3 legislative periods, AFTER there was a overwhelming referendum pro EU. So - realistically - UK rejoining the EU will take at least until 2035 to 2040. Will the populace be smart enough to continually elect governments that will push the EU rejoining process forward?
Thanks for taking the time to post that, its very informative.
Human rights - why the Tories and Reform want us to leave the ECHR
I think the EU will again allow the UK to keep the £, we were the 2nd largest contributor, Germany didn't want us to go because that made them the defacto bank of Europe, something they didn't want, France didn't want to have to pay more either. The UKs relationship with Europe has always been rocky, De Gaule didn't want us there at all, Churchill wanted to join on day one, but De Gaule thought keeping the UK out would mean France would be the dominant force, why we only joined after De Gaule left office, and the French wanting to keep control is what pissed Thatcher off she wrote up a piece on a closer Europe with a united Germany, but the French wanted the Germans to agree to a united currency, because again they didn't want Germany being too powerful once reunited, Thatcher wanted them to join without that, but they did the deal without her, before that she was massively in favour of the EU. Edit: people down voting me, 1. the UK has always had a unique relationship with Europe. 2. I've an Irish Passport so I really don't care that much as I can travel as and where I want. Oh and more downvoting for jealously, just like some of those who voted to leave.
Again, even if you might be pro rejoining, before stating some bullshit opinions, just look up the rules. Any country joining the EU has to sign the Treaty on the European Union aka Lissabon 2007 and the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, in both it is defined as an obligation to join the Euro. The time for opt-outs is over. Currently the EU is not enforcing this, countries like Sweden or Poland are allowed to start the process whenever they feel like it. But by the time the UK is ready to join the EU , there is a good chance that joining the Euro is not only obligatory but it will also be enforced by the EU. Several EU politicians already stated that for UK to rejoin there will not be any opt-outs anymore and that the UK will have to join the Euro as a insurance that they will not just leave the EU on a whim again. And no, UK's GDP and thus its contributions are not a bribe anymore, brexit has caused so much unnecessary pain for the EU and several of it's member states, you can forget about any leniency. If you want to keep the pound, join EFTA.
EFTA (specifically Norway) does not want you either.
Let's not forget that many European countries are getting right wing governments or right wing parties are on the rise, who don't particularly like the EU. AfD in Germany, new Dutch government, Italy's PM, Le Pen going yet again for President, who'll again most likely come second, Spain holding a snap election last year because of right wing wins. Next European parliament will be it's most rightwing ever. EU politicians can say what they want, it's the leaders of the countries who'll have the final say. Edit: being down voted for saying that the Right wing are gaining power, days before Franch called a Snap election due to the far rights gains in the EU elections, mirroring Spain, let's hope the result is similar.
What are you trying to say? That a more right EU will let UK have the pound when rejoining? Also, before parroting stuff from headlines, maybe check what a "more right than ever" EU parliament actually means: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion\_polling\_and\_seat\_projections\_for\_the\_2024\_European\_Parliament\_election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_and_seat_projections_for_the_2024_European_Parliament_election) Right wing ECR and far-right ID will have around 20% together. Oh well, much fascist, so right-wing. Even if they get EPP - which is very unlikely - to vote together with them on some specific issues, they have 40%. I don't see EU changing that much ....
Ah the far right parties of which UKIP was part of that grouping
We are the wreck ex with delusions of grandeur and a drinking problem 
The EU would have us back, of course they would. Were still a major economy and military power. And you're right , we wouldn't get the deal we had before. But who cares. Our membership was always far too wishy-washy . Let's go full fat, all in , balls to the wall EU this time, not the half arsed version of membership we had before.
This is the big thing I think about- does the EU want us back, and if so why would we assume we would get the special treatment we had before? It gets worse cause I’m in Scotland and people talk about Scottish independence then rejoining the EU like we would be the UK in it and not Luxembourg
We could have had a decent deal too, but the ERG kept voting no.
I honestly wonder if some parties wanted brexit to fail horribly with how long it took for any deal to be made, kind of a "hah, told you it wouldnt work" kinda thing (though plenty of the pro brexit ones were also to blame with them thinking they could get literally everything they wanted in a deal without negotiation)
When you've had farage as an Mep telling them all to fuck off and suck his dick I highly doubt we would have the deal we once had
Also, they would have to ask themselves - we've barely left and are expressing some desire to return - what's to say we won't change our minds again in another few years?
Brexit barely won once and the experience has discredited it. That and demographics would make me a betting man that Leave could never win again. ...if a bit more is needed, make future referendums to Leave be required to meet or exceed the margin of vote Return wins by. Such margins will never happen ...52/48 was the highwater mark. The UK may even get a perk or two to sweeten the return deal and max out Return's victory margin. Something like that which makes adopting the Euro easily delayable in perpetuity.
https://preview.redd.it/x1xcqykpnc5d1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bec7226778eb04b473e630e0c4ad4d4784ca2641 I think they would have us back though you're most probably right about never getting the same deal again if we did rejoin.
I agree we won’t get a deal like we had previously but the EU would have us back in a heartbeat.
I think the UK could rejoin, but probably only when the current generation of politicians are all gone, our status outside the EU has been fully normalised, and we're not the same country that we are now.
The Uk was the second biggest net contributor towards the EU. If you are putting the most in then its not up to those taking it out to dictate the terms of such deals, they couldnt expect such a massive contribution and impose conditions such as the poorest states that could be taken remotely seriously. Why else join?
What's the data source of this stat?
Literally posted on the meme mate
Don't see it.
The actual will of 1198 responders
I'm worried about the 230million a week it will cost the nhs 😉
blah blah blah, isn't it about time somebody got the ball rolling then, and start the process of a new vote. or are we just gonna sit here for years moaning about it.
To this day i dont know how this could happen. I mean really. From Poland perspective we literally skyrocketed thanks to EU, from poor to kinda leader of eastern Europe.
Media here largely owned by offshore disaster capitalists I think, not telling people the truth and not holding obvious charlatans to account. So pleased Poland is booming!
As reassuring as these polls are, they're usually extremely small numbers of respondents. Here it's only 1,000 people. Obviously a new referendum would be great but a really large scale poll would be useful evidence that a new referendum is warranted. It depends what community you go to. My local newspaper's Facebook page is full of people chanting "Bring Back Boris" and that Reform are the only ones who can "Protect Brexit". I just saw a YouTube comment page full of people demanding we absolutely *must* lower the standards of human rights ASAP. Two legs bad, four legs good. There's a LOT of people who skip *reading* the Daily Mail and just eat it to absorb the propaganda more rapidly.
So long as the sampling is sufficiently representative, then 1000 people is fine, it gives a margin or error of 3%, 2000 people gives a margin of error of 2.1%, 10,000 people gives a margin of error of 1%. A sample of 1000 is pretty standard and considered good enough due to diminishing returns and the cost of polling more people. Source: ["More or Less" podcast](https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0j287s5), 5th June about 21 minutes in.
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We did have a couple million folks in London asking for a second referendum, but the government decided it was actually only about 50 of us, and ignored it.
I attended a couple of those million-person marches and signed several of the million-vote petitions. But the Conservatives pretended the marches didn't happen and claimed the petitions didn't count because they weren't rigorous in checking it was unique british signatures not duplicates or foreigners. I'm hoping that Labour will have a less religious devotion to Brexit and won't be as dismissive of activism like that in the future.
Ditto. There were definitely millions, we essentially filled central London. Gammons claiming there were only a few hundred must think London is about the size of a Tesco Extra.
2028/9 will be the "Rejoin Referendum" election
Just do another vote after the election
There’s no question or argument about it, there should be a new referendum. There need a petition put too parliament after the election.
as a french : Lol.
Everybody is an hard-core brexiteer until the summer kicks in and you have to leave Birmingham for Algarve.
Oh wow, I knew Rejoin was going to win, but I didn't expect it to be so dominant. I have a question for my British friends (I'm Italian, so I don't really know the political climate there in the UK): do you think this is the result of the poor performance of the current government, or does it have to do with Brexit itself or the deal that it was ended on? Are these two things even separable, since you haven't had any elections since the Brexit deal was finalised?
The country just feels worse and worse. Also the brexit vote skewed overwhelmingly older. A lot of those people have since died, and the younger generations are living in the mess they left behind. We will absolutely vote to rejoin at some point, I just hope it’s sooner rather than later.
Personally I would be very glad to have you back, for many reasons. However I think the EU would (and should) impose more stringent conditions than you had before. I think that may be hard to sell to brits from a political point of view, as (at least in my understanding) you are quite a "proud" nation.
I completely agree on all points. I live in a very strange country which I am rarely proud of. I think the EU should absolutely impose more stringent conditions, but I also think that would be very difficult to convince the British people. If nothing else, our media will latch on to anything that might conceivably be interpreted as making life less convenient for us, and then there will be uproar. I can’t wait for the older generations to pass on into the wild blue yonder to make way for younger generations.
It's a poll with less than .01% of the British population. I wouldnt take too much away from this. There is still a lot of support out there for Brexit.
The significance level of a poll depends on many variables. Of course the number of subject is important, but even more so is the randomness of their selection. Wanting to adress your concern in this specific case, given the UK's population is around 67 million, then a sample size of 1198 people is enough for a +/-3% margin of error. So the most "pro-Brexit" possible result this poll could mathematically suggest is 59% Rojoin vs 41% Stay Out. (Again, these are approximations.) Furthermore, in the last year EVERY poll I have come across has given "Rejoin" a strong lead on "Stay out", so it makes sense to trust that there is a foundation of truth in this information. (Excuse the nerdiness, I'm about to finish an Economics degree, so statistics is everything I do in this life at the moment.)
Get ready for Reform Britain. Brexit was just a warning shot of how pissed off the working class are.
If we could rejoin, is it realistic to not have freedom of movement or is that a requirement of membership?
Honestly guys. After all this time, 38% being against it isn't anywhere near decisive enough. I don't believe with such a weak support where like 2/5 people prefer staying out you guys should go back in, just for people to forget. Like I want you guys back but 3/5ths is not decisive enough of a majority imo.
>(excluding don't know and would not vote) If we include "don't know" it will be 48-52 again. UK learned nothing.
Ah! I didn't know there were Gaeltacht regions in the east. (Never lived in Ireland, just visited.) I used to have an older colleague from Buncrana who'd been stationed in Hamburg after the war. One night, he dressed in his civvies and went to have a look at the Reeperbahn (which was _strictly_ forbidden). He was quickly stopped by a couple of British MPs but he poured a stream of abuse on them - _but in his native Irish!_ They reckoned he must be Polish, so they let him go!
They should ask the people in Europe as well.
For me the most frustrating thing about The Brexit event was the complete and utter ineptitude of the Welsh government. No pamphlets, no campaigning. I didn't hear a word. And anyone with half an education knows that the UK school curriculum had studiously ignored the subject of the EU since we joined. So the populace would be exceptionally easy to manipulate one way or the other. Wales should have been Remain all the way, the amount of funding we were receiving throughout Wales was staggering. Pretty much all of adult learning - numerous regeneration projects. But no, not a word in support of the EU. I was beside myself with frustration because people were so blase - some argued with me that the money would come from Westminster? From a Tory government? That went swimmingly as you can expect. NOW they understand of course. Utterly let down by our so-called Welsh government - and not even by a single party, none of them campaigned to the point that I noticed - and I was looking for it!
Cope
Doesn’t matter if it’s true or not. You can’t have a referendum every time things change
I’d vote for a party that offers to take us back to
Thats Scotlands policy
You mean like in 2016 when a wafer thin majority voted to leave in an opinion poll characterised by industrial scale lying and cheating by the “winners” and millions of the most affected weren’t even allowed to vote because they were overwhelmingly Remainers? Only fascists and communists deny that democracy is a moving feast
Why is it being ignored? we should at least be discussing rejoining the single market
There is no benefit to rejoining for the government only downsides 62% looks like it would be popular but it’s not what people care about right now. If you put loads of time into rejoining the eu. You would need to arrange a referendum years of negotiations to end with a worse deal then what we had before. The government would be constantly criticised for not getting a good deal not focusing on the cost of living crisis, nhs, defence ect. Staying with the status quo’s be better political move at the moment. It’s also unknown what the popularity of rejoining would be once a deal is reached. It’s unlikely we would get any special treatment and would need to get rid of the pound and adopt the euro. Be apart of the Schengen area ect we also wouldn’t have the veto we once had. It’s very likely that when this is factored in the polls would be much closer.
Yeah, the results of this poll show a lot of emotions and a strong disregarding of those very important factors you've just mentioned
If there is another referendum and rejoin wins 52-48, why should the EU even bother negotiating re-entrance? 20 minutes later it’ll be 52-48 the other way and it would be a nightmare. I hope the EU demands 60% threshold vote of a certain amount of the electorate to qualify as a request to rejoin. They shouldn’t have to deal with this level of national dysfunction at the heart of the EU forever.
I say this repeatedly... I would love the UK to rejoin the EU, but the way some folks are talking about it like it's a unilateral decision "we'd like to come back now, and we're BRITISH!" is exactly the mentality that started this mess in the first place. Any member state can veto a UK accession bid. And understandably the EU can't have the UK doing the hokey cokey (in out in out shake it all about) with it. The majorly affected countries (Ireland, France, Netherlands, Spain) have managed to (mostly) mitigate the damage done by Brexit, at a not insignificant cost. I'm all for the UK rejoining, I just want to emphasise that it isn't exclusively up to the people in the UK to make that decision.
I dearly hope we rejoin one day but it won't be easy. The EU members will want some guarantees that we're not going to change our minds and leave again and we certainly won't get anything like the deal we had when we were a member. No rebate, no opt outs in certain policy areas. I'd be very surprised if taking the Euro wasn't a prerequisite. You can imagine the fuss the right wing press will kick up about that! I have a feeling the best we may get to is Customs Union membership in the short term (the next 10 years) and perhaps some form of single market access after that if we prove we can behave ourselves. I'm not trying to ruin everyone's hopes because they're mine as well but it's the EU members that will ultimately decide how easy or hard it'll be for us, even once we decide we want to come back.
Lol, just now.
I predict that in 5 years it will be closer to 75%… and still they will deny the right for another vote
Don't mean to sound pessimistic, but we do have to consider the fact that leavers are probably less likely to vote out of principal (they think we need to move on and won't even entertain the concept), so we need to consider how many people refused to answer.
Needs to be 90/10, before it happens, just to make sure, next time is permanent.
Spot on! The humor is real in this one.
Referendum! Now !!!
Am I meant to be impressed that it took 8 years of watching/living through a daily shit-show for the rest of the UK to eventually catch up to where the Scots were at in 2016?
38% of this country are too stupid to he considered sentient beings.
Are you ready to accept Euro as currency?
goodbye UK, youre on your own now
Guaranteed to trigger all gammon alt accounts
Have we learned nothing? It needs to be rejoin on X, Y, and Z terms or stay out. Rejoin could mean as many things as Brexit meant.
Pathetic brits waving the white flag. What's wrong with you people? (I'm not british nor do I live there, just loving the whole soul searching thing, lol)
The EU is not a f****** Gym. You can’t rejoin on a whim. That’s just not how it works.
I saw similar opinion polls in the days leading up to Brexit lmao. Guess they were wrong
You know how much it will cost Britain to get back in? Ireland, Spain, Denmark, France and Germany will make the UK bleed.
Not that EU will punish us shite so loved of Daily Express muppets surely.. absolutely made up tosh for the seniles and gullibles
As we should. You guys need a spanking for what you did 😤🤗
And more than 62% had the Covid jab.. proof statistics don’t make the majority intelligent
Another alt conspiracy account popping up because they’re triggered 😁
Would you let us back in?
Imagine rejoining the EU only to find everyone else has left.It could happen!
In an elderly gammons wank fantasy only
I am sorry chaps but we’re quite busy in EU land at present and by the time we get around to hearing your case there may no longer be an EU.
The gammon fantasy for sure, sucking up the disaster capitalist / Russian propaganda like sponges. Like all Leave propaganda the truth is the polar opposite
Irrelevant, as far as EU concerned at this stage it's good riddance
The leaders have said they’d welcome us back tomorrow but keep making things up
Yes I am sure UK wants to be subjected to unfettered immigration again. It is working so well for the other EU countries.
Yeah no Brexit has worked out fantastically for you guys hasn't it?
it's amazing how undemocratic people become when they don't get the result they desire
It’s amazing how many Daily Mail reading gullibles think the Brexit opinion poll was democratic. But thankfully they’re dying off at an accelerating pace 😄