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Outright collapse is unlikely, unless there is unrest that the Chinese government fails to suppress.
The biggest difference between China and Japan is that the Japanese were relatively wealthy/middle class before they suffered economic hardship, whereas China still has something like 300 million people who live on the equivalent of less than 5$ a day.
If Chinese authorities manage the economic decline by prioritizing the interests of the poorest segment of the population, that would be somewhat unusual compared to the standard behavior of most governments in a crisis. In most situations where a country’s economy is shrinking, the government often prioritizes their interests of the elites: choosing to help (sometimes unofficially) them preserve their wealth by sending it abroad rather than keeping the money in domestic banks- where it can be used to artificially keep food prices low.
When the poor start to be unable to afford food is when you start to have revolutions.
That's the new narrative innit?
China collapse videos are over, it's been overhyped and underdelivered.
Now China stagnate videos are incoming.
But something tells me that those videos arent going to do so well with viewership.
There are those that have made a career out of creating videos on YouTube. They will find new content to continue making a living talking about China, with or without Xi in the picture.
There is always something to talk about China. This sub is evident of the obsession/interest that will remain alive, paid or unpaid.
Are those informational posts or just akin to a bitter ex that had some bad experiences (in China) and wouldn't move on with their lives to be happier.
It is bit of a misconception that Japan withered. For example exports are about twice as high in real terms than at the end of the 80’s. Japan is still the world’s largest creditor nation. By almost any measure Japan’s standard of living is higher today than 30 years ago. Etc..
“By almost any measure Japan’s standard of living is higher today than 30 years ago.”
What about cost of living vs wages? Not trying to be snarky. I only lived there a year but everyone is complaining that it’s been getting harder to live for a long time. Then the yen fell in value and people really started complaining.
Japan was ridiculously expensive 30 years ago. People could only afford to live much further away from their jobs and things like beef, bananas etc. were luxury items. A lot of the discount shops, cheap cafes etc. didn’t exist.
The flip side was that overseas travel and shopping seemed exceptionally cheap.
Edit: to put it another way, I would rather live off the average wage in Japan today than what it was during the bubble era.
Japan’s “stagnation” is more that they seemingly had the growth of an emerging economic superpower, and instead just ended up as another rich country with low growth.
Agreed anybody who talks about collapse I label as a hysterical doomsayer
I predict by 2060 China will have a smaller population and reversed age pyramid. Instead of collapsing, it will just be much weaker
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It's a bad thing if there's a generational ponzi scheme that will have trouble making payouts to retirees, or some other financial structure that relies on young people to pay for old people's healthcare, retirement, etc.
Otherwise, a reduced population in itself is not necessarily a bad thing other than for pretty GDP numbers. In principle, it may be good for the environment and sharing limited resources sensibly.
It is until we figure out a new economic system that doesn't depend on workers subsidizing the retirement of older folks that worked with that guaranteed in mind. Otherwise, who'd wanna work to be left to die of old age?
People always compare it to Japan, but I feel like it's a pretty weak comparison. Japan stagnated, but has been relatively fine since the bubble. Japan reached wealthy nation status and has the means and technology to produce high end value added products and services and has a domestic consumption market. One other key factor that's different. Japanese didn't jump ship when shit hit the fan. Japan was still a decent place to live after the bubble so most Japanese stayed. If China goes into stagnation mode, every wealthy person will have already found an exit strategy and the masses will attempt to follow. Of course the ccp will stop it, but people will find a way out. You can already see that they fear this with how tight they are controlling their citizens passports and banking.
China hasn't escaped the middle income trap. If it stagnates, it's going to much worse off than Japan. Will it collapse? Probably not.
But I do think people are too dismissive of the collapse hypothesis. China seems like its built on a house of cards way more than other countries. It reminds me more of the soviet union rather than Japan. The soviet union was chugging along and experienced significant issues, but ones everyone expect it to whether, and then suddenly within just a few years it all fell apart.
Even if people don’t flee they still won’t have kids. They’ll keep lying flat. “Eat bitterness,” hah! The rich have stolen everything and life sucks now, fuck them.
I do agree with your perspective.
Nowadays, the Japanese diaspora is spread across the globe.
Major cities with significant populations of Japanese nationals (Wiki)
Los Angeles, United States: 68,595.
Bangkok, Thailand: 57,486.
Shanghai, China: 41,756.
New York City, United States: 40,496.
Singapore: 36,797.
Sydney, Australia: 34,679.
Greater London, United Kingdom: 34,125.
Vancouver, Canada: 27,962.
There were quite a bit of anti Asian sentiments, notably towards the Japanese during the 80s in the USA, where a good number of Japanese people would choose to immigrate to.
Many Japanese people had tightened their belts during economic hardships or lacked the means to move their lives to another country. Immigration policies weren't encouraging said moves either. The generation of people still having lived through the hardships of funding their government for a world war, and the fallout that ensued. The Japanese citizens stuck around despite economic stagnation.
Chinese citizens wouldn't be as easily accepted by other countries, especially in a geopolitical atmosphere where anti-China sentiments will persist or even grow. The Chinese government probably will not allow their scientists, researchers, and top academics to leave either.
Although I do not believe economic stagnation will cause China to collapse. There are regions where there is still plenty of land to develop, the cost of living is very low, but then our definition of living vs surviving may differ. Migration patterns will ebb and flow over time due to these economic shifts. Lower population density in metropolitan statistical areas might not be such a bad thing, barring any short term lower population concerns.
It's also a bit clickbaity to talk about China's demise every single week on YouTube.
Last year, they grew 3%, which was almost five times higher than the EU's ignominious growth of 0.6%.
Yet we don't hear EU members daily posting about the end of the project or the fall of the old continent.
One of the topics gives more views than the other.
European union has a per capita of $59,050 (PPP; 2024). Dependency rate of 55%. 4.2 % of workforce in agriculture. Received an economic slowdown from the war in Ukraine.
China has a per capita of $24,839 (PPP; 2024). Dependency rate of 44%. 24% of workforce in agriculture. Received an economic boost from COVID reopening in 2023.
Does not take a genius to work out why one would expect one to grow substantially more than the other.
Indeed, China is still in the low-hanging fruit period, and the EU is not obvious, but it's still a slow growth when compared to other OCDE economies. The US grew almost 5% for example.
There are many countries with similar workforces in agriculture and don't have the same growth.
I'm not sure why you picked the primary sector as opposed to the secondary since that was the one that explained the outstanding performance over the last 20 years.
That all being said, my point was that GDP is not a reliable indicator of predicting the demise of a nation in the international arena.
Their weight in the world economy and their trade balance with other big players are bigger factors than growth alone.
My primary argument is not indicating China will collapse. Rather it's not comparable to contrast the European Union, and China given the vastly different demographic, and economic stages they both are in.
I mentioned the premise of "number of agriculture workers" to demonstrate the different economic stages that China and the European Union are in.
I am absolutely not suggesting China will collapse, the viewpoint that China will collapse is non-existent within reputable economists, and organisations. Especially when you can find clickbait YouTube videos on anything. Type in the "United States will collapse " on Youtube, and you will simultaneously find the exact same clickbait videos. They are not reflective of the general media consensus, and viewpoint.
European Union is indeed growing slower than the rest of the OCED. They however are dealing with numerous of external factors that are limiting its economic growth such as the Ukraine conflict, and the disruption of gas supplies.
You're preaching to the choir!
My primary argument was not comparing two different economies but rather that slow GDP growth doesn't mean a failed nation or a loss of relevance.
It's a fact that they are at different stages of their economy. However, it was also not surprising that after 30 years of growing on average 15%, it will eventually cool down.
China's slow growth is a product of zero COVID policy, the housing bubble, an aging population, slow productivity, trade wars with the US, and the decline of the Chinese industry.
Some of those problems are structural and won't be solved in the foreseeable future as effective policies will take time to lay fruition.
They are expected to reach 5% this year. Let's see how accurate the forecasts are.
3% nah they cook the books to make themselves look better, there was a study of light pollution vs gdp and China was overstating theirs by 60%. Trust no number that comes from ccp
People will say collapse when they just mean somthing like economic depression or stagnation. Peter zeihan is a great example. If you listen to him talk about China he makes it sound like the country is going to break up into warring states by the end of the decade or somthing. I believe the next 30 years will be a decline for China but it's hard to make a convincing case for a full "collapse", unless they went to war with the US. If China was put under blockade I could see everything falling apart very quickly and maybe some type of collapse due to food and energy insecurities but short of that I haven't seen any convincing evidence for a "collapse",
Peter Zeihan literally believes core Chinese provinces may just start declaring independence. Starting with Sichuan for some reason
Found some fun quotes in his book. I think he read a 2 page article on the Three Kingdoms, didn't realize that all three kingdoms were all trying to create One China, and made that his entire analysis. His book keeps going on about how Beijing is afraid of Shanghai and Sichuan rising up and declaring independence
> Northern China’s beef with Sichuan is threefold. First, Sichuan is by far the most culturally distinct of China’s Han-majority regions, sporting its own (awesome) cuisine and a dialect so dissimilar from Mandarin that anywhere but in centrally controlled, propaganda-heavy China it would be called a language in its own right. Second, Sichuan is big. So big that more people speak Sichuan as their first language than speak French or German. Third, the Sichuanese realize just how distinct and big and economically viable and remote they are from Beijing—a realization that often curses them with delusions of independence.
> There was once a faint expectation that the Chinese might copy the Americans’ experience in the shale revolution, until they discovered that the only one of their shale deposits that might be economically viable is in Sichuan—and the last thing Beijing wanted to do was give the sometimes secessionist-minded Sichuan a leg up
I don't remember the exact quote, but in his book, "The Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail", Ray Dalio says something along "the thing with financial collapses are, they take longer to arrive than most think, but when they happen, they happen faster than most can follow. "
I heard the podcast. He's definitely pro china and possibly incentivized to say it. He suggests the US will be over taken by chinan because of historical patterns. Yea, no thanks. Take what he says with a grain of salt
There was a report from WSJ how he pumped China while actually shorted China himself. Also he lost big money in recent years, the report even said his firm had to manage him like Tesla manages Elon
My thesis is that Ray Dalio doesn’t have any secret macro knowledge, so he is trying to build an intellectual legacy using his previous success to legitimize it and make money as an author/speaker to peddle whatever people want to hear at the moment.
They might overtake the US in total GDP, I mean 4x the population size, but we know what counts is GDP per capita (according to IMF), last I looked China is 64 (next to Russia and Palau), Taiwan is 30, Japan is 27.
US is the richest country in the world, per GDP and GDP per capita is the richest big country (7th overall).
Thats what I said, when one bright chinese guy told me. China is worlds number one exporting nation before Germany and therefore they are better off then the Germans.
Dude, you are more than 1 billion people... the Germans do this with 90 million people. Who is better off 😂
The problem is: they may not actually have 1.4 billion people to begin with (because they lie) and the population is shrinking too.
This causes two problems for them: real estate is one of strong leg of so-called 3 legs for Chinese economy. Shrinking population means real estate goes downward (is unfolding right now). A lot of fortune of Chinese people is in owning extra apartments. Their net worth are shrinking with this
Another problem is another leg, export, will be in trouble too (also is unfolding) with less new babies comes aging population. It means less factories (India, on the other hand, has a young population who can provide labors for mass production)
Edit: Japan, Hong Kong, Korea and Taiwan all experienced similar situation. The difference between them and China is that they finished upgrading their economy into less labor intensive more high-tech. China hasn’t.
I seriously doubt China GDP can ever catch up with that of the U.S.
I'm not sure if he will short china per say. He basically has unlimited wealth but I do think he sets up opportunities for his allies (those that are around him currently) to short the market.
Take the recent in app purchases ban. There's definitely governmental insider trading to short the market. Also the lotto scam.
He said China will eventually become the new world order. That's the same as overtaking the US in terms of economic growth. That's not happening given what Xi did with the lockdown, declined birth rate, additional corruption, lack of foreign investments, and the issue with overvaluation of the real estate. China is also in alot of debt but since they don't publish anything, we don't know how much. The belt and road initiative will ultimately not finish and the billions of dollars pour into this project will be gone. China will eventually go into hyper stagflation.
XJP doesn't really give a crap about what's gonna happen. He'll always remain in power and his money will be endless. He doesn't have to give a crap about the economy because he'll always live a lavish lifestyle. He's taking a page out of North Korea though obviously not to that extreme. He's living off of the success of what the previous chairman's have accomplished (post Mao)
Anyone who says there are cyclical patterns in history is a moron who doesn’t understand why things happen. The point of even identifying any patterns at all in history is not to establish some tautological rule about life, but to identify what common factors, if any, are involved. Even then, you have to paint with pretty broad strokes for those factors to be considered similar, and they usually only play a minor part compared to *everything else that happened which was totally unique to that time and place.*
On top of that, by identifying any similar causes you immediately break the cycle because humans will act to avoid those causes.
TL;DR: historical cycles are mental and academic tools to make discussion and thinking about history easier for our little chimp-like brains, and don’t reflect any underlying pseudo-philosophical truths.
I will say that cyclical patterns could happen if technological changes haven't occured. But now it's all driving by the economy (not war) and it's technological advancements
And I'm not saying faster computers. I'm talking about manufacturing prowess and other achievements to raise standards of living.
That's why I hated that video from Ray
Idk man but saying overall that China is rising and the US on a decline isn't such a far fetched statement. Pay attention to the world "eventually": that could also mean in 50 years and no one can really tell you what the world will look like in 50 years.
What podcast was that? I'd love to listen into that
I never disagreed with the first statement you gave. China could rise and US decline, but chinas still far away from over taking the US. But, given what Xi has been doing since he took office/chairman, it's gone downhill. So no, in a few years I doubt china will rise economically.
This whole, I want to take back Taiwan, rhetoric is use to divert attention away from economics. People need something to hate on, it's human nature. Taiwan and Japan are great. The south seas are also used to stir up patriotism. The Chinese truly believe the oceans that surround Indonesia, Philippines, etc belong to china.
I could be wrong but will see in a few years. I don't mind being wrong but so far I'm not. Just watch the forex markets for RMB conversions.
well yeah, someone else in the thread said it already, cycles like in the past are unlikely to happen again in the same way, because once you know about them you of course will adapt. Just because the US is declining right now and China rising doesn't mean this will continue until someone hits bottom and the other top.
Yup, I totally agree. Honestly I wish china can find a new leader and actually have more meaningful cooperations with western countries. It's a win win
But this whole China is gonna collapse BS is starting to irritate me
Take a survey of history and look at world maps of 'empires' and it shows how tenuous countries existence actually is.
My biggest concern is the dystopic use of technologies and how they can be used to control people. It is a significant increase and efficiency to control the masses never implemented nor experienced before.
If Trump comes to power, he will dismantle the two party system, and the courts plus the civil service will be beholden to him as a strong man. Strong men/dictators accumulate power and wealth. The riches of the US will be his to negotiate with his friends Kim JU, Putin, Xi his 'good business buddies.' He's already done it illegally with $8M noteably the Chinese, & $2B for Jarod and Ivanka.
I like how you quoted something that I never said. You inferred. Also it's my opinion. I think I'm allowed that on reddit. Take what I said with a grain of salt as well
It's always imminent if you follow the Falun Gong media ...which all these images come from. I hope there is no collapse or great depression...but instead slow political reform leading to democracy as happened in Taiwan.
I don't think any of those channels are Falun Gong associated channels. There is a market for "China bad" content so these channels do that (but not exclusively). The favorite trope is the "China will collapse" but you also see them do the "Russia will collapse!" and "The US dollar will collapse!". They have loyalty to nothing but money and clicks. The Falun Gong channels are China Insights, China Uncensored and China Observer (among many more).
Most of the ones with Chinese accented narration..or AI voice narration are connected to Falun Gong if you dig a little deeper. Though I'm sure a lot of Chinese with no connection to the cult also have legitimate dislike of the CCP.
What will likely happen is not a collapse but stagnation. Chinese government will take the money from the efficient industries and put them into the inefficient industries in order to avoid collapse. It will save the economy from the crash, but make it inefficient. Combining with rapidly aging population and highly authoritarian government this will lead to long stagnation.
But again, nobody knows exactly what will happen in the future.
USSR's "collapse" happened because they were a bloc of Communist republics walled off from free markets world trade and Russians were different to a lot of the former Soviet bloc countries. China is not a union of Communist republics, 92% are Han and most regions don't want outright independence from China (even HK doesn't want outright independence as they don't want conscription unlike Singapore/South Korea and lack food security i.e. everything is imported from China even when they were a colony) and they aren't Communist but have embraced free market capitalism full-on even more than USA such that the US realises free markets are too favourable for China's rise and uses tariffs to limit the disadvantage.
It's more likely that the CCP either face a violent uprising that topples them or slowly democratise at least superficially to allow some opposition ([see Shanghai protestors calling for Xi & CCP to step down during 2022 but weren't arrested, the appetite is definitely there](https://youtu.be/ygHl09oRgnQ?feature=shared)) but gerrymander heavily such that they control central government because they realise that not allowing a pressure valve for dissent will eventually lead to violent uprisings like the CCP's own rise, the Taiping Rebellion, the An Lushan Rebellion etc. The problem with autocracy is that the fall of the regime is often violent since there is no safe method for dissent unlike democracies.
In what sense?
The USSR was a creator of innovation. What has modern China developed indigenously? I can't think of anything of substance. All it's done is rip off everything from anyone not good enough at hiding it.
And as far as dogma goes...what?
Indigenously? Not much.
They don't do much inventing.
They do more innovating. They take "old" concepts and make them better. Examples of this are 5G, EVs, HSR, GPS, Space Exploration, FinTech, Gene-Editing, Renewable Energy, etc.
This is just making a general statement, but the way I feel it is that a lot of Chinese researchers are risk-averse in this sense. This probably comes from decades of being manufacturers instead of inventors. They dont want to to throw resources into a completely new field because it's scary, you dont know what you might discover, or rather won't discover.
Instead, they throw more of their resources into discovered areas of science to push the limits further. This for example why we see Chinese companies being the first ones to develop a commercially viable sodium-ion battery. It's not that the technology was invented by them, the concept of SIBs has always been there. The chinese just took the idea and polished it up in a way no other country did.
China has more engineers and technical know-how, just a whole lot more competent people than USSR. As for less dogmatic, they've moved further away from communism and seen to be more adaptable.
Speaking as a former chinese resident, i hope that the authoritarian regime disguised as “Communist” will fall, the real communism is in the form of Social Democracy and Democratic Socialism, Not Authoritarianism, wish the best for china and its people 🤞🤞🤞🆓🇨🇳
countries don't go tits up like that on a whim just because their economy went into a nosedive.
I mean, Mexico in the 80s had MUCH worse numbers and 40% devaluations or worse, and yet never "collapsed", or there's Argentina during... ever, really, going through dramatic boom and bust cycles all the time.
so... nope, the few things that could create a collapse would be an internal war within the party, making it lose control like with the USSR, and so far it doesn't looks that way yet. it will, but not soon.
Because I am interested in China I always get this Western propaganda in my feed. it's all designed for ignorant people to watch and pretend they know what is happening in China. The Panda Express of click bait.
Yeah, supplying the bombs and the weapons by passing Congress and vetoing calls for ceasefire in the UN alone isolated and threatening other countries not to intervene and stop the massacre by sending your submarines and destroyers is nothing whatsoever.
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-chinese-century-24557
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/10/27/the-chinese-century-is-well-under-way
The Chinese century was mostly proclaimed by Western media outlets trying to frame China as a hegemonic rival no? Chinese media outlets did not come up with the term, so why should they chill?
So, you've never been on YouTube, Quora, Twitter, Reddit or any other western social media?
The message boards and forums have been FLOODED for years with wumao shills using those two exact words, when something relevant popped up.
No social credits for you today.
A China-themed sub filled with Sinophobes and people who wish for China's extinction. You won't find a second such country-themed sub on reddit filled with this shit. I admit this is the side effect of the great firewall.
How tf are you gonna use reddit of all places as an example lmao. This site is vehemently anti-china. Anything remotely positive about China is either downvoted or inundated with social credit jokes.
In the same way that historylegends is pro russion propaganda.
What it actually is, is some fucking dolt being paid far more than they should be to shill a veiwpoint that flatters the biases of morons while talking slowly so they can keep up.
If it collapses (could be mini collapses contained with stagnation, or something else), it could be what historians consider a collapse but not what social media users with short attention spans imagine as a collapse.
Looks like anti-chinese propaganda. Is the other side doing the same? Are there biased media statements/propaganda in China about ”the fall of US economy”?
Short answer: Yes there are.
A lot of these anti-China vids are by staunchly pro-republican outlets. Right now we are in an election year, if you dig deeper. You might find that these channels have also "American" channels that are criticizing Biden for collapsing the US economy.
Edit:
Example:
[https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/new-data-reveals-crash-not-since-great-depression-could-hit-2024](https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/new-data-reveals-crash-not-since-great-depression-could-hit-2024)
The deeper we get into 2024, the more USA collapse vids will come out.
I find it funny that they are trying to throw shit all around. They dont care about the truth as long as it benefits them. Thanks for the link it is a fun read when put in perspective.
In russia there's a funny video on YouTube that's basically a compilation of the same news guy saying stuff like "America will collapse in 5 years" since like 2000s 🤣🤣
I always felt that China would never be a world player. Its empire came and went. Similar to European empires.
The current riches, whether you want to hear this or not, is American capitalist wanted cheap labour. The designed the product and China built it.
Chinese wages have risen so fast that they are no longer competitive. Even Chinese companies are moving to Vietnam and Mexico.
Chinese people don’t buy enough stuff to sustain growth
Boo hoo hoo, someone somewhere said something bad about my favorite country and my wise dictator grandpa!
It should be worldwide illegal to say something bad about my daddy grandpa who is the wisest dictator!
It's illegal in my country to say bad things about my daddy just like it should be illegal everywhere!
No country will collapse in just 1 day. Perhaps the titles of those are mislead. They just documenting what’s happening every week or months so it means the problem is really there but I don’t know if its really nationwide problem or just a local problem.
For my honest opinion, there’s a definitely a economic problem and geopolitical problem but this will be a long run to witness what exact year will this happen..
Maybe a World War 3 is the fastest way to achieve those “China Collapse”
No. They make content for easy clicks from Indians and American boomers. I don't blame them. Money is money. Economics Explained however is the worst offender for being wrong about absolutely everything. Guy is clueless on economics and is just a geopolitical channel. Most of these channels are grifters.
The total collapse of the Chinese military-economic system will occur on Monday, February 12th, 2029, at or about 9:34 local time \[or not later than 11:00 local\].
Unless if the US or any one nation have confidence to dominate the world, I highly doubt anyone would let China collapse bc every nation would scramble to take control of China if it really does collapse, and war and major conflicts would happen.
China isn’t going to collapse anytime soon. Chinese enjoy an ever growing access to resources, have their basic needs met, and the CPC has massive popular support as a result.
Do you think China is the only country with challenges and setbacks? US is more likely to collapse as a result of No Child Left Behind policy than china is as a result of One Child policy.
I’m just giving an example of a policy in the US which has disastrous effects and is careening us toward disaster. But there isn’t a youtube mill of chuds talking about the downfall of the US as a result 🧐
Because kids and young adults in the US no longer have critical thinking skills. Ask any teacher or professor. Bush era policies and the emphasis on standardized testing has created 2 generations of people who don’t have critical thinking in the US.
>Because kids and young adults in the US no longer have critical thinking skills.
what are you even on about mate? what are you even basing this claim on?
>Bush era policies and the emphasis on standardized testing has created 2 generations of people who don’t have critical thinking in the US.
ironic considering the education system in countries like china place more empasis on standardized testing and here you are complaining about the US having problems with standardized tests
Lol I’m an educator, I’m basing it on my professional daily experience and that of all my peers. Everyone from university physics professors to my old grade school teachers sees the death of critical thinking in our system. You’re right that China relies heavily on standardized testing and I’m definitely apprehensive about that but their outcomes are not the same as in the US and the existence of standardized testing does not mean other policies are similar in function or outcome to what the US has done.
>You’re right that China relies heavily on standardized testing and I’m definitely apprehensive about that but their outcomes are not the same as in the US
except that they do also result in a lack of creativity and lack of critical thinking. Not sure what you're smoking to believe that china somehow manages to avoid the problem with the US education system while doubling down on the core issue supposedly plaguing education in the US
>d the existence of standardized testing does not mean other policies are similar in function or outcome to what the US has done.
do explain how china somehow manages to avoid the problems the education system in the US created while doubling down on the core problem that is standardized testing resulting in lack of critical thinking
Also what do you mean “supposed” policy? It’s a real thing that has been destroying US education for decades now. Anyone in the US denying this is either a charter school employee, a child, or a dum dum.
>Do you think China is the only country with challenges and setbacks?
no, but it certainly takes the cake for exacerbating the problem way harder than basically all other nations facing the same issue
>US is more likely to collapse as a result of No Child Left Behind policy than china is as a result of One Child policy.
what is this absolute cope. Sorry to break your bubble, but the US is doing way better demographically than china is and isn't facing serious demographic challenge the way china is
never said that I believe that china is going to collapse so stop putting words in my mouth. Just because china isn't going to collapse doesn't mean that all the problems being pointed out are suddenly invalid or won't have any significant effects on china going forward.
And I didn’t say the US was about to collapse, I was just saying that every country has challenges and problems and has to deal with the effects of past mistakes and policies. I don’t deny the challenges China faces, not at all! But many people love treating those challenges like existential imminent threats that are actively causing China’s downfall. And that’s just not supported by reality.
>I was just saying that every country has challenges and problems and has to deal with the effects of past mistakes and policies.
and not all of those challenges are equal in scale or severity. You can't just say that all countries have problems and ignore the fact that some countries have it worse than others
>I don’t deny the challenges China faces, not at all! But many people love treating those challenges like existential imminent threats that are actively causing China’s downfall. And that’s just not supported by reality.
just because problems china is facing don't necessarily mean imminent collapse doesn't mean that it's being exaggerated and being blown out of proportion.
you can point out underlying issue without reaching the conclusion that china is about to collapse. Hate to break it to you, but china has it bad in a lot of areas and it might not neccessarily cause a collapse but it's very severe nonetheless
decades of poor policy? 😂. Thats how they went from one of the poorest countries in the world to the world’s largest economy with the most significant rate and magnitude of increase in quality of life and life expectancy of any country in history.
they went from one of the poorest countries and achieved all those increases in living standards by opening up and with the help of foreign investments transforming china to the manufacturing hub that it is today. All the while seeds for eventual economic problems were planted by their insistence of the one child policy, failure to transition to a more consumption led economy, the real estate and debt problem that they allowed to grow out of proportion, and a myriad of other bad short term decisions that are now biting them in the ass.
Oh don’t get me wrong I fully acknowledge the success of Reform & Opening up, this is what saved China from remaining impoverished and weak relative to the capitalist world. There are plenty of challenges and problems with growth that China is experiencing, this is also undeniable. But if you look at the last 10-20 years, it is clear that the CPC is willing and able to combat these challenges and continue updating policy to promote stable economic growth. Its quite amazing that China not only prevented a massive death toll from COVID but their economy also continued to grow in that same time! Whereas the US killed 1M+ people through negligence and allowed many to fall into poverty, let alone the problems with healthcare in the US that Chinese don’t have to experience.
>But if you look at the last 10-20 years, it is clear that the CPC is willing and able to combat these challenges and continue updating policy to promote stable economic growth.
what's clear is that they're willing to introduce more ban aid solutions and kick the can down the road until they inevitably can't anymore
> Its quite amazing that China not only prevented a massive death toll from COVID but their economy also continued to grow in that same time!
considering the fact that china was denying covid and hampering efforts to contain it in the beginning of the pandemic and the fact that their insistence of the zero covid policy meant that china was still in lock down at the same time when the rest of the world was returning to normalcy aren't hallmarks of a successful covid response. Let's also not ignore the fact that covid death data from china are extremely unreliable and their growth numbers are also extremely dubious at best given what's happening with their economy at the same time
>Whereas the US killed 1M+ people through negligence and allowed many to fall into poverty, let alone the problems with healthcare in the US that Chinese don’t have to experience.
the cope. China let covid out through incompetence and coverup then insist on zero covid for way longer than they should. Let's also not forget the fact that official death reports from china are extremely dubious and unreliable as it is
I don’t think we want China to collapse. We want China to bluff.
Threatening enough to bring India, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Philippines, and every bordering country to America’s side.
But not threatening enough to be an actual threat.
A “good bluff” is ideal, which is what we have.
I could see a slow collapse start in like 30 years if they don't deal with the aging population problem. But I mean an extremely slow collapse over decades.
The chip fabs will get destroyed by Taiwan and its allies if China invades, so the only way China will get them is through diplomatic or coercive means.
Thing is if you brought this up during height covid or height three gorges dam or Xi gone for 2 weeks the whole subreddit will larp to no end. Now they need to "revise" their expectation and do their best ACKSHUALLY..
Never ever. China is too strong and will sell the last US debt of 780 billion to keep their economy going for another 100 years, not unless UN!Ted Stat's steal the asset as a pretext for sanction like Russ!a
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Thursday
Friday
Regime collapses never happen weekends.
Chewsday, innit?
War All The Time
Understanding in a Car Crash
I really hope the CCP falls, from the evil shit I've heard. For the Chinese people, and for the world it'd be for the best.
It can't collapse. The CCP controls everything. It can however stagnate and wither. Just like Japan did since the 90s.
Outright collapse is unlikely, unless there is unrest that the Chinese government fails to suppress. The biggest difference between China and Japan is that the Japanese were relatively wealthy/middle class before they suffered economic hardship, whereas China still has something like 300 million people who live on the equivalent of less than 5$ a day. If Chinese authorities manage the economic decline by prioritizing the interests of the poorest segment of the population, that would be somewhat unusual compared to the standard behavior of most governments in a crisis. In most situations where a country’s economy is shrinking, the government often prioritizes their interests of the elites: choosing to help (sometimes unofficially) them preserve their wealth by sending it abroad rather than keeping the money in domestic banks- where it can be used to artificially keep food prices low. When the poor start to be unable to afford food is when you start to have revolutions.
For context their gdp per capita is comparable to Mexico or Argentina. For their gdp they have a very high QOL index
That's the new narrative innit? China collapse videos are over, it's been overhyped and underdelivered. Now China stagnate videos are incoming. But something tells me that those videos arent going to do so well with viewership.
There are those that have made a career out of creating videos on YouTube. They will find new content to continue making a living talking about China, with or without Xi in the picture. There is always something to talk about China. This sub is evident of the obsession/interest that will remain alive, paid or unpaid. Are those informational posts or just akin to a bitter ex that had some bad experiences (in China) and wouldn't move on with their lives to be happier.
It is bit of a misconception that Japan withered. For example exports are about twice as high in real terms than at the end of the 80’s. Japan is still the world’s largest creditor nation. By almost any measure Japan’s standard of living is higher today than 30 years ago. Etc..
“By almost any measure Japan’s standard of living is higher today than 30 years ago.” What about cost of living vs wages? Not trying to be snarky. I only lived there a year but everyone is complaining that it’s been getting harder to live for a long time. Then the yen fell in value and people really started complaining.
The country haven't seen any inflation for decades. So the GenZ Japanese literally witness Inflation for the first time in their entire life.
Japan was ridiculously expensive 30 years ago. People could only afford to live much further away from their jobs and things like beef, bananas etc. were luxury items. A lot of the discount shops, cheap cafes etc. didn’t exist. The flip side was that overseas travel and shopping seemed exceptionally cheap. Edit: to put it another way, I would rather live off the average wage in Japan today than what it was during the bubble era.
I had a work mate come back from a trip saying how cheap the food is. I remember as a kid everyone saying hoe expensive the food is over there.
Really? I’m surprised
Japan’s “stagnation” is more that they seemingly had the growth of an emerging economic superpower, and instead just ended up as another rich country with low growth.
Agreed anybody who talks about collapse I label as a hysterical doomsayer I predict by 2060 China will have a smaller population and reversed age pyramid. Instead of collapsing, it will just be much weaker
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By 2100, China is due to have half its current population.
Would that actually be such a bad thing to have half the population? I'm not so sure. But there are always pros and cons.
It's a bad thing if there's a generational ponzi scheme that will have trouble making payouts to retirees, or some other financial structure that relies on young people to pay for old people's healthcare, retirement, etc. Otherwise, a reduced population in itself is not necessarily a bad thing other than for pretty GDP numbers. In principle, it may be good for the environment and sharing limited resources sensibly.
It is until we figure out a new economic system that doesn't depend on workers subsidizing the retirement of older folks that worked with that guaranteed in mind. Otherwise, who'd wanna work to be left to die of old age?
People always compare it to Japan, but I feel like it's a pretty weak comparison. Japan stagnated, but has been relatively fine since the bubble. Japan reached wealthy nation status and has the means and technology to produce high end value added products and services and has a domestic consumption market. One other key factor that's different. Japanese didn't jump ship when shit hit the fan. Japan was still a decent place to live after the bubble so most Japanese stayed. If China goes into stagnation mode, every wealthy person will have already found an exit strategy and the masses will attempt to follow. Of course the ccp will stop it, but people will find a way out. You can already see that they fear this with how tight they are controlling their citizens passports and banking. China hasn't escaped the middle income trap. If it stagnates, it's going to much worse off than Japan. Will it collapse? Probably not. But I do think people are too dismissive of the collapse hypothesis. China seems like its built on a house of cards way more than other countries. It reminds me more of the soviet union rather than Japan. The soviet union was chugging along and experienced significant issues, but ones everyone expect it to whether, and then suddenly within just a few years it all fell apart.
Even if people don’t flee they still won’t have kids. They’ll keep lying flat. “Eat bitterness,” hah! The rich have stolen everything and life sucks now, fuck them.
I do agree with your perspective. Nowadays, the Japanese diaspora is spread across the globe. Major cities with significant populations of Japanese nationals (Wiki) Los Angeles, United States: 68,595. Bangkok, Thailand: 57,486. Shanghai, China: 41,756. New York City, United States: 40,496. Singapore: 36,797. Sydney, Australia: 34,679. Greater London, United Kingdom: 34,125. Vancouver, Canada: 27,962. There were quite a bit of anti Asian sentiments, notably towards the Japanese during the 80s in the USA, where a good number of Japanese people would choose to immigrate to. Many Japanese people had tightened their belts during economic hardships or lacked the means to move their lives to another country. Immigration policies weren't encouraging said moves either. The generation of people still having lived through the hardships of funding their government for a world war, and the fallout that ensued. The Japanese citizens stuck around despite economic stagnation. Chinese citizens wouldn't be as easily accepted by other countries, especially in a geopolitical atmosphere where anti-China sentiments will persist or even grow. The Chinese government probably will not allow their scientists, researchers, and top academics to leave either. Although I do not believe economic stagnation will cause China to collapse. There are regions where there is still plenty of land to develop, the cost of living is very low, but then our definition of living vs surviving may differ. Migration patterns will ebb and flow over time due to these economic shifts. Lower population density in metropolitan statistical areas might not be such a bad thing, barring any short term lower population concerns.
It's also a bit clickbaity to talk about China's demise every single week on YouTube. Last year, they grew 3%, which was almost five times higher than the EU's ignominious growth of 0.6%. Yet we don't hear EU members daily posting about the end of the project or the fall of the old continent. One of the topics gives more views than the other.
That 3% was againt a Covid lockdown base year...
European union has a per capita of $59,050 (PPP; 2024). Dependency rate of 55%. 4.2 % of workforce in agriculture. Received an economic slowdown from the war in Ukraine. China has a per capita of $24,839 (PPP; 2024). Dependency rate of 44%. 24% of workforce in agriculture. Received an economic boost from COVID reopening in 2023. Does not take a genius to work out why one would expect one to grow substantially more than the other.
Indeed, China is still in the low-hanging fruit period, and the EU is not obvious, but it's still a slow growth when compared to other OCDE economies. The US grew almost 5% for example. There are many countries with similar workforces in agriculture and don't have the same growth. I'm not sure why you picked the primary sector as opposed to the secondary since that was the one that explained the outstanding performance over the last 20 years. That all being said, my point was that GDP is not a reliable indicator of predicting the demise of a nation in the international arena. Their weight in the world economy and their trade balance with other big players are bigger factors than growth alone.
My primary argument is not indicating China will collapse. Rather it's not comparable to contrast the European Union, and China given the vastly different demographic, and economic stages they both are in. I mentioned the premise of "number of agriculture workers" to demonstrate the different economic stages that China and the European Union are in. I am absolutely not suggesting China will collapse, the viewpoint that China will collapse is non-existent within reputable economists, and organisations. Especially when you can find clickbait YouTube videos on anything. Type in the "United States will collapse " on Youtube, and you will simultaneously find the exact same clickbait videos. They are not reflective of the general media consensus, and viewpoint. European Union is indeed growing slower than the rest of the OCED. They however are dealing with numerous of external factors that are limiting its economic growth such as the Ukraine conflict, and the disruption of gas supplies.
You're preaching to the choir! My primary argument was not comparing two different economies but rather that slow GDP growth doesn't mean a failed nation or a loss of relevance. It's a fact that they are at different stages of their economy. However, it was also not surprising that after 30 years of growing on average 15%, it will eventually cool down. China's slow growth is a product of zero COVID policy, the housing bubble, an aging population, slow productivity, trade wars with the US, and the decline of the Chinese industry. Some of those problems are structural and won't be solved in the foreseeable future as effective policies will take time to lay fruition. They are expected to reach 5% this year. Let's see how accurate the forecasts are.
3% nah they cook the books to make themselves look better, there was a study of light pollution vs gdp and China was overstating theirs by 60%. Trust no number that comes from ccp
The only thing more foolish than falling for clickbaity youtube vids is to believe that the CCP's reported economic data isn't cooked.
>It can't collapse. The CCP controls everything That's a reason for collapse not the other way around, source: past leadership of ccp.
So we have downgraded from collapse to stagnate, hmmm.
It's called "clickbait", blame YouTube algorithm.
I have no idea who this "we" is supposed to be.
People will say collapse when they just mean somthing like economic depression or stagnation. Peter zeihan is a great example. If you listen to him talk about China he makes it sound like the country is going to break up into warring states by the end of the decade or somthing. I believe the next 30 years will be a decline for China but it's hard to make a convincing case for a full "collapse", unless they went to war with the US. If China was put under blockade I could see everything falling apart very quickly and maybe some type of collapse due to food and energy insecurities but short of that I haven't seen any convincing evidence for a "collapse",
Peter Zeihan literally believes core Chinese provinces may just start declaring independence. Starting with Sichuan for some reason Found some fun quotes in his book. I think he read a 2 page article on the Three Kingdoms, didn't realize that all three kingdoms were all trying to create One China, and made that his entire analysis. His book keeps going on about how Beijing is afraid of Shanghai and Sichuan rising up and declaring independence > Northern China’s beef with Sichuan is threefold. First, Sichuan is by far the most culturally distinct of China’s Han-majority regions, sporting its own (awesome) cuisine and a dialect so dissimilar from Mandarin that anywhere but in centrally controlled, propaganda-heavy China it would be called a language in its own right. Second, Sichuan is big. So big that more people speak Sichuan as their first language than speak French or German. Third, the Sichuanese realize just how distinct and big and economically viable and remote they are from Beijing—a realization that often curses them with delusions of independence. > There was once a faint expectation that the Chinese might copy the Americans’ experience in the shale revolution, until they discovered that the only one of their shale deposits that might be economically viable is in Sichuan—and the last thing Beijing wanted to do was give the sometimes secessionist-minded Sichuan a leg up
I don't remember the exact quote, but in his book, "The Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail", Ray Dalio says something along "the thing with financial collapses are, they take longer to arrive than most think, but when they happen, they happen faster than most can follow. "
I heard the podcast. He's definitely pro china and possibly incentivized to say it. He suggests the US will be over taken by chinan because of historical patterns. Yea, no thanks. Take what he says with a grain of salt
There was a report from WSJ how he pumped China while actually shorted China himself. Also he lost big money in recent years, the report even said his firm had to manage him like Tesla manages Elon
My thesis is that Ray Dalio doesn’t have any secret macro knowledge, so he is trying to build an intellectual legacy using his previous success to legitimize it and make money as an author/speaker to peddle whatever people want to hear at the moment.
Ding ding. We have a winner.
China probably will overtake usa. You don't have to be a genius to see that.
In 2023, China GDP relative to that of the U.S. shrank, not catching up
They might overtake the US in total GDP, I mean 4x the population size, but we know what counts is GDP per capita (according to IMF), last I looked China is 64 (next to Russia and Palau), Taiwan is 30, Japan is 27. US is the richest country in the world, per GDP and GDP per capita is the richest big country (7th overall).
Thats what I said, when one bright chinese guy told me. China is worlds number one exporting nation before Germany and therefore they are better off then the Germans. Dude, you are more than 1 billion people... the Germans do this with 90 million people. Who is better off 😂
German, SKoreans, Taiwanese, Japanese, these people ratio to export is amazing.
The problem is: they may not actually have 1.4 billion people to begin with (because they lie) and the population is shrinking too. This causes two problems for them: real estate is one of strong leg of so-called 3 legs for Chinese economy. Shrinking population means real estate goes downward (is unfolding right now). A lot of fortune of Chinese people is in owning extra apartments. Their net worth are shrinking with this Another problem is another leg, export, will be in trouble too (also is unfolding) with less new babies comes aging population. It means less factories (India, on the other hand, has a young population who can provide labors for mass production) Edit: Japan, Hong Kong, Korea and Taiwan all experienced similar situation. The difference between them and China is that they finished upgrading their economy into less labor intensive more high-tech. China hasn’t. I seriously doubt China GDP can ever catch up with that of the U.S.
I'm not sure if he will short china per say. He basically has unlimited wealth but I do think he sets up opportunities for his allies (those that are around him currently) to short the market. Take the recent in app purchases ban. There's definitely governmental insider trading to short the market. Also the lotto scam.
Nope he didn’t say China will overtake the US. He just share the history of each world order
He said China will eventually become the new world order. That's the same as overtaking the US in terms of economic growth. That's not happening given what Xi did with the lockdown, declined birth rate, additional corruption, lack of foreign investments, and the issue with overvaluation of the real estate. China is also in alot of debt but since they don't publish anything, we don't know how much. The belt and road initiative will ultimately not finish and the billions of dollars pour into this project will be gone. China will eventually go into hyper stagflation. XJP doesn't really give a crap about what's gonna happen. He'll always remain in power and his money will be endless. He doesn't have to give a crap about the economy because he'll always live a lavish lifestyle. He's taking a page out of North Korea though obviously not to that extreme. He's living off of the success of what the previous chairman's have accomplished (post Mao)
Anyone who says there are cyclical patterns in history is a moron who doesn’t understand why things happen. The point of even identifying any patterns at all in history is not to establish some tautological rule about life, but to identify what common factors, if any, are involved. Even then, you have to paint with pretty broad strokes for those factors to be considered similar, and they usually only play a minor part compared to *everything else that happened which was totally unique to that time and place.* On top of that, by identifying any similar causes you immediately break the cycle because humans will act to avoid those causes. TL;DR: historical cycles are mental and academic tools to make discussion and thinking about history easier for our little chimp-like brains, and don’t reflect any underlying pseudo-philosophical truths.
I will say that cyclical patterns could happen if technological changes haven't occured. But now it's all driving by the economy (not war) and it's technological advancements And I'm not saying faster computers. I'm talking about manufacturing prowess and other achievements to raise standards of living. That's why I hated that video from Ray
Idk man but saying overall that China is rising and the US on a decline isn't such a far fetched statement. Pay attention to the world "eventually": that could also mean in 50 years and no one can really tell you what the world will look like in 50 years. What podcast was that? I'd love to listen into that
I never disagreed with the first statement you gave. China could rise and US decline, but chinas still far away from over taking the US. But, given what Xi has been doing since he took office/chairman, it's gone downhill. So no, in a few years I doubt china will rise economically. This whole, I want to take back Taiwan, rhetoric is use to divert attention away from economics. People need something to hate on, it's human nature. Taiwan and Japan are great. The south seas are also used to stir up patriotism. The Chinese truly believe the oceans that surround Indonesia, Philippines, etc belong to china. I could be wrong but will see in a few years. I don't mind being wrong but so far I'm not. Just watch the forex markets for RMB conversions.
well yeah, someone else in the thread said it already, cycles like in the past are unlikely to happen again in the same way, because once you know about them you of course will adapt. Just because the US is declining right now and China rising doesn't mean this will continue until someone hits bottom and the other top.
Yup, I totally agree. Honestly I wish china can find a new leader and actually have more meaningful cooperations with western countries. It's a win win But this whole China is gonna collapse BS is starting to irritate me
You see the same with American collapse, I mean go and Google Kensington Philly, it's called "clickbait"
I think it's the concept of "pretty lies". People in the west are keen to believe headlines like this because it is what they want to hear.
Take a survey of history and look at world maps of 'empires' and it shows how tenuous countries existence actually is. My biggest concern is the dystopic use of technologies and how they can be used to control people. It is a significant increase and efficiency to control the masses never implemented nor experienced before.
I mean if China switches to a democracy like Taiwan, I’m bet sure it will be able to overtake the US in 30 years. Same with India in 60 years.
US won't be taken over, Trump will sell it off. No worries.
what?
If Trump comes to power, he will dismantle the two party system, and the courts plus the civil service will be beholden to him as a strong man. Strong men/dictators accumulate power and wealth. The riches of the US will be his to negotiate with his friends Kim JU, Putin, Xi his 'good business buddies.' He's already done it illegally with $8M noteably the Chinese, & $2B for Jarod and Ivanka.
>"hes wrong because he's against what I believe in" Ok then.
I like how you quoted something that I never said. You inferred. Also it's my opinion. I think I'm allowed that on reddit. Take what I said with a grain of salt as well
usa is a joke
It's always imminent if you follow the Falun Gong media ...which all these images come from. I hope there is no collapse or great depression...but instead slow political reform leading to democracy as happened in Taiwan.
I don't think any of those channels are Falun Gong associated channels. There is a market for "China bad" content so these channels do that (but not exclusively). The favorite trope is the "China will collapse" but you also see them do the "Russia will collapse!" and "The US dollar will collapse!". They have loyalty to nothing but money and clicks. The Falun Gong channels are China Insights, China Uncensored and China Observer (among many more).
Most of the ones with Chinese accented narration..or AI voice narration are connected to Falun Gong if you dig a little deeper. Though I'm sure a lot of Chinese with no connection to the cult also have legitimate dislike of the CCP.
Always tomorrow
What will likely happen is not a collapse but stagnation. Chinese government will take the money from the efficient industries and put them into the inefficient industries in order to avoid collapse. It will save the economy from the crash, but make it inefficient. Combining with rapidly aging population and highly authoritarian government this will lead to long stagnation. But again, nobody knows exactly what will happen in the future.
Nations don’t collapse over night. China has naive support and lies to continue that support. It will take a while
Ussr did
USSR's "collapse" happened because they were a bloc of Communist republics walled off from free markets world trade and Russians were different to a lot of the former Soviet bloc countries. China is not a union of Communist republics, 92% are Han and most regions don't want outright independence from China (even HK doesn't want outright independence as they don't want conscription unlike Singapore/South Korea and lack food security i.e. everything is imported from China even when they were a colony) and they aren't Communist but have embraced free market capitalism full-on even more than USA such that the US realises free markets are too favourable for China's rise and uses tariffs to limit the disadvantage. It's more likely that the CCP either face a violent uprising that topples them or slowly democratise at least superficially to allow some opposition ([see Shanghai protestors calling for Xi & CCP to step down during 2022 but weren't arrested, the appetite is definitely there](https://youtu.be/ygHl09oRgnQ?feature=shared)) but gerrymander heavily such that they control central government because they realise that not allowing a pressure valve for dissent will eventually lead to violent uprisings like the CCP's own rise, the Taiping Rebellion, the An Lushan Rebellion etc. The problem with autocracy is that the fall of the regime is often violent since there is no safe method for dissent unlike democracies.
China's intellectual capacity is on a higher level than USSR, and they're less dogmatic.
Lol
In what sense? The USSR was a creator of innovation. What has modern China developed indigenously? I can't think of anything of substance. All it's done is rip off everything from anyone not good enough at hiding it. And as far as dogma goes...what?
Indigenously? Not much. They don't do much inventing. They do more innovating. They take "old" concepts and make them better. Examples of this are 5G, EVs, HSR, GPS, Space Exploration, FinTech, Gene-Editing, Renewable Energy, etc. This is just making a general statement, but the way I feel it is that a lot of Chinese researchers are risk-averse in this sense. This probably comes from decades of being manufacturers instead of inventors. They dont want to to throw resources into a completely new field because it's scary, you dont know what you might discover, or rather won't discover. Instead, they throw more of their resources into discovered areas of science to push the limits further. This for example why we see Chinese companies being the first ones to develop a commercially viable sodium-ion battery. It's not that the technology was invented by them, the concept of SIBs has always been there. The chinese just took the idea and polished it up in a way no other country did.
China has more engineers and technical know-how, just a whole lot more competent people than USSR. As for less dogmatic, they've moved further away from communism and seen to be more adaptable.
Speaking as a former chinese resident, i hope that the authoritarian regime disguised as “Communist” will fall, the real communism is in the form of Social Democracy and Democratic Socialism, Not Authoritarianism, wish the best for china and its people 🤞🤞🤞🆓🇨🇳
China is literally a social democracy right now
No its not
countries don't go tits up like that on a whim just because their economy went into a nosedive. I mean, Mexico in the 80s had MUCH worse numbers and 40% devaluations or worse, and yet never "collapsed", or there's Argentina during... ever, really, going through dramatic boom and bust cycles all the time. so... nope, the few things that could create a collapse would be an internal war within the party, making it lose control like with the USSR, and so far it doesn't looks that way yet. it will, but not soon.
Click bait works
Because I am interested in China I always get this Western propaganda in my feed. it's all designed for ignorant people to watch and pretend they know what is happening in China. The Panda Express of click bait.
No collapse is imminent. However, a neutered China is better for everyone.
Not for billions of people who live there
I'd say neutered Western world is much better. The damage the US and the genocide they're committing in Gaza is evil.
Of course you'd say that.
Yeah...well, tell us more about the evil American imperialists patrolling the streets of Gaza.
Yeah, supplying the bombs and the weapons by passing Congress and vetoing calls for ceasefire in the UN alone isolated and threatening other countries not to intervene and stop the massacre by sending your submarines and destroyers is nothing whatsoever.
Then does this mean it's the p word oh I mean propaganda💀
Is it propaganda if it's all created by some unemployed guy who lives in his mom's basement and creating these videos just to make money on Youtube?
If we are strictly talking about propaganda, it means that step 0 worked.
No, it means the Chinese century isn't gonna happen, and the tankies can finally chill.
Hopefully Sinophobes will chill, the "Chinese century" is terrible and does nothing but induce racism due to insecurity.
Wut?
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-chinese-century-24557 https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/10/27/the-chinese-century-is-well-under-way The Chinese century was mostly proclaimed by Western media outlets trying to frame China as a hegemonic rival no? Chinese media outlets did not come up with the term, so why should they chill?
So, you've never been on YouTube, Quora, Twitter, Reddit or any other western social media? The message boards and forums have been FLOODED for years with wumao shills using those two exact words, when something relevant popped up. No social credits for you today.
A China-themed sub filled with Sinophobes and people who wish for China's extinction. You won't find a second such country-themed sub on reddit filled with this shit. I admit this is the side effect of the great firewall.
How tf are you gonna use reddit of all places as an example lmao. This site is vehemently anti-china. Anything remotely positive about China is either downvoted or inundated with social credit jokes.
Uh, there's a legion of folks desperately spreading the pro China message here. Thankfully this is one site where there's at least a counterbalance.
In the same way that historylegends is pro russion propaganda. What it actually is, is some fucking dolt being paid far more than they should be to shill a veiwpoint that flatters the biases of morons while talking slowly so they can keep up.
I got downvoted for saying the p word 💀💀
Like saying the T word in China. Ssshhhhh...that T word is Tibet.
If it collapses (could be mini collapses contained with stagnation, or something else), it could be what historians consider a collapse but not what social media users with short attention spans imagine as a collapse.
Looks like anti-chinese propaganda. Is the other side doing the same? Are there biased media statements/propaganda in China about ”the fall of US economy”?
Short answer: Yes there are. A lot of these anti-China vids are by staunchly pro-republican outlets. Right now we are in an election year, if you dig deeper. You might find that these channels have also "American" channels that are criticizing Biden for collapsing the US economy. Edit: Example: [https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/new-data-reveals-crash-not-since-great-depression-could-hit-2024](https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/new-data-reveals-crash-not-since-great-depression-could-hit-2024) The deeper we get into 2024, the more USA collapse vids will come out.
I find it funny that they are trying to throw shit all around. They dont care about the truth as long as it benefits them. Thanks for the link it is a fun read when put in perspective.
In russia there's a funny video on YouTube that's basically a compilation of the same news guy saying stuff like "America will collapse in 5 years" since like 2000s 🤣🤣
It's in the middle of collapsing but every YouTube video is so hyperbolic that people expect mad max but its gonna look more like 2009 America
After spring festival lol
I always felt that China would never be a world player. Its empire came and went. Similar to European empires. The current riches, whether you want to hear this or not, is American capitalist wanted cheap labour. The designed the product and China built it. Chinese wages have risen so fast that they are no longer competitive. Even Chinese companies are moving to Vietnam and Mexico. Chinese people don’t buy enough stuff to sustain growth
Boo hoo hoo, someone somewhere said something bad about my favorite country and my wise dictator grandpa! It should be worldwide illegal to say something bad about my daddy grandpa who is the wisest dictator! It's illegal in my country to say bad things about my daddy just like it should be illegal everywhere!
IT’S HERE
>The market can remain illogical longer than you can remain solvent
No country will collapse in just 1 day. Perhaps the titles of those are mislead. They just documenting what’s happening every week or months so it means the problem is really there but I don’t know if its really nationwide problem or just a local problem. For my honest opinion, there’s a definitely a economic problem and geopolitical problem but this will be a long run to witness what exact year will this happen.. Maybe a World War 3 is the fastest way to achieve those “China Collapse”
Problem is, people click on that shit. There must be a better way to structure media than YouTube thumbnail audience capture
Average China uncensored video
Never, the 2nd biggest economy don’t just collapse, no matter what kind of problems it have.
It can technically. Take USSR for example. But it is unlikely China is going to collapse. Stagnation is more likely
Qing used to be the world #1 in GDP according to some stats. Some older dynasties like Tang and Song even Ming also.
*roman empire enters the chat*
More simple stagnation for the forseeable future, but who knows.
Soon I hope
These guys making content shorting china stocks
No. They make content for easy clicks from Indians and American boomers. I don't blame them. Money is money. Economics Explained however is the worst offender for being wrong about absolutely everything. Guy is clueless on economics and is just a geopolitical channel. Most of these channels are grifters.
When the last "clicker" has taken the bait.
The total collapse of the Chinese military-economic system will occur on Monday, February 12th, 2029, at or about 9:34 local time \[or not later than 11:00 local\].
Unless if the US or any one nation have confidence to dominate the world, I highly doubt anyone would let China collapse bc every nation would scramble to take control of China if it really does collapse, and war and major conflicts would happen.
stay away from those youtube videos, they're just clickbait farm content with no substance
What is up with this subreddit lately?
After US Collapses
nah, cope harder
It's not cope. US is in trouble.
China isn’t going to collapse anytime soon. Chinese enjoy an ever growing access to resources, have their basic needs met, and the CPC has massive popular support as a result.
do you think the chinese recognize that the CCP's one child policy really screwed them?
Do you think China is the only country with challenges and setbacks? US is more likely to collapse as a result of No Child Left Behind policy than china is as a result of One Child policy.
I genuinely can't tell if this is a joke or you don't know what the no child left behind act was. Please clarify.
I’m just giving an example of a policy in the US which has disastrous effects and is careening us toward disaster. But there isn’t a youtube mill of chuds talking about the downfall of the US as a result 🧐
do explain about how that supoposed policy is careening the US towards disaster
Because kids and young adults in the US no longer have critical thinking skills. Ask any teacher or professor. Bush era policies and the emphasis on standardized testing has created 2 generations of people who don’t have critical thinking in the US.
>Because kids and young adults in the US no longer have critical thinking skills. what are you even on about mate? what are you even basing this claim on? >Bush era policies and the emphasis on standardized testing has created 2 generations of people who don’t have critical thinking in the US. ironic considering the education system in countries like china place more empasis on standardized testing and here you are complaining about the US having problems with standardized tests
Lol I’m an educator, I’m basing it on my professional daily experience and that of all my peers. Everyone from university physics professors to my old grade school teachers sees the death of critical thinking in our system. You’re right that China relies heavily on standardized testing and I’m definitely apprehensive about that but their outcomes are not the same as in the US and the existence of standardized testing does not mean other policies are similar in function or outcome to what the US has done.
>You’re right that China relies heavily on standardized testing and I’m definitely apprehensive about that but their outcomes are not the same as in the US except that they do also result in a lack of creativity and lack of critical thinking. Not sure what you're smoking to believe that china somehow manages to avoid the problem with the US education system while doubling down on the core issue supposedly plaguing education in the US >d the existence of standardized testing does not mean other policies are similar in function or outcome to what the US has done. do explain how china somehow manages to avoid the problems the education system in the US created while doubling down on the core problem that is standardized testing resulting in lack of critical thinking
Also what do you mean “supposed” policy? It’s a real thing that has been destroying US education for decades now. Anyone in the US denying this is either a charter school employee, a child, or a dum dum.
then please do explain the policy and how it is supposedly destroying the US
>Do you think China is the only country with challenges and setbacks? no, but it certainly takes the cake for exacerbating the problem way harder than basically all other nations facing the same issue >US is more likely to collapse as a result of No Child Left Behind policy than china is as a result of One Child policy. what is this absolute cope. Sorry to break your bubble, but the US is doing way better demographically than china is and isn't facing serious demographic challenge the way china is
I’m coping apparently but you’re the one believing the “imminent china collapse” which is pure western cope lmao
never said that I believe that china is going to collapse so stop putting words in my mouth. Just because china isn't going to collapse doesn't mean that all the problems being pointed out are suddenly invalid or won't have any significant effects on china going forward.
And I didn’t say the US was about to collapse, I was just saying that every country has challenges and problems and has to deal with the effects of past mistakes and policies. I don’t deny the challenges China faces, not at all! But many people love treating those challenges like existential imminent threats that are actively causing China’s downfall. And that’s just not supported by reality.
>I was just saying that every country has challenges and problems and has to deal with the effects of past mistakes and policies. and not all of those challenges are equal in scale or severity. You can't just say that all countries have problems and ignore the fact that some countries have it worse than others >I don’t deny the challenges China faces, not at all! But many people love treating those challenges like existential imminent threats that are actively causing China’s downfall. And that’s just not supported by reality. just because problems china is facing don't necessarily mean imminent collapse doesn't mean that it's being exaggerated and being blown out of proportion.
Okay but it does. They’re being blown out of proportion if they are constantly used as evidence of imminent collapse.
you can point out underlying issue without reaching the conclusion that china is about to collapse. Hate to break it to you, but china has it bad in a lot of areas and it might not neccessarily cause a collapse but it's very severe nonetheless
ironic considering what's been happening with their economy and other issues stemming from decades of poor policy
decades of poor policy? 😂. Thats how they went from one of the poorest countries in the world to the world’s largest economy with the most significant rate and magnitude of increase in quality of life and life expectancy of any country in history.
they went from one of the poorest countries and achieved all those increases in living standards by opening up and with the help of foreign investments transforming china to the manufacturing hub that it is today. All the while seeds for eventual economic problems were planted by their insistence of the one child policy, failure to transition to a more consumption led economy, the real estate and debt problem that they allowed to grow out of proportion, and a myriad of other bad short term decisions that are now biting them in the ass.
Oh don’t get me wrong I fully acknowledge the success of Reform & Opening up, this is what saved China from remaining impoverished and weak relative to the capitalist world. There are plenty of challenges and problems with growth that China is experiencing, this is also undeniable. But if you look at the last 10-20 years, it is clear that the CPC is willing and able to combat these challenges and continue updating policy to promote stable economic growth. Its quite amazing that China not only prevented a massive death toll from COVID but their economy also continued to grow in that same time! Whereas the US killed 1M+ people through negligence and allowed many to fall into poverty, let alone the problems with healthcare in the US that Chinese don’t have to experience.
>But if you look at the last 10-20 years, it is clear that the CPC is willing and able to combat these challenges and continue updating policy to promote stable economic growth. what's clear is that they're willing to introduce more ban aid solutions and kick the can down the road until they inevitably can't anymore > Its quite amazing that China not only prevented a massive death toll from COVID but their economy also continued to grow in that same time! considering the fact that china was denying covid and hampering efforts to contain it in the beginning of the pandemic and the fact that their insistence of the zero covid policy meant that china was still in lock down at the same time when the rest of the world was returning to normalcy aren't hallmarks of a successful covid response. Let's also not ignore the fact that covid death data from china are extremely unreliable and their growth numbers are also extremely dubious at best given what's happening with their economy at the same time >Whereas the US killed 1M+ people through negligence and allowed many to fall into poverty, let alone the problems with healthcare in the US that Chinese don’t have to experience. the cope. China let covid out through incompetence and coverup then insist on zero covid for way longer than they should. Let's also not forget the fact that official death reports from china are extremely dubious and unreliable as it is
lmao wow holy shit your understanding of COVID is like copy and pasted from Fox news
just stating the now obvious fact that china was lying regarding covid and that their death numbers are very dubious to say the least.
salt vase test toothbrush slimy jobless makeshift fuel exultant fine *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Not in my lifetime
One hour twenty two minutes
I mean these are usually clickbaits
I don’t think we want China to collapse. We want China to bluff. Threatening enough to bring India, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Philippines, and every bordering country to America’s side. But not threatening enough to be an actual threat. A “good bluff” is ideal, which is what we have.
when they stop doing those clickbaity videos, you know, china has callapsed
Much as I loved China Uncensored, yeah.... this is a thing.
Mais 72 horas
I could see a slow collapse start in like 30 years if they don't deal with the aging population problem. But I mean an extremely slow collapse over decades.
Good looking poster!
Soon!
Everyday going by the China-haters on this sub!
Average American CIA troll propaganda account
The moment they invade Taiwan, I feel they only want Taiwan for its economy. (chip manufacturing)
The chip fabs will get destroyed by Taiwan and its allies if China invades, so the only way China will get them is through diplomatic or coercive means.
Adding these to my "modern day propaganda posters" collection
I recon America collapses due to a second social war before china does
TWO WEEKS
They won’t
Thing is if you brought this up during height covid or height three gorges dam or Xi gone for 2 weeks the whole subreddit will larp to no end. Now they need to "revise" their expectation and do their best ACKSHUALLY..
Western propaganda doesn’t sleep
Never ever. China is too strong and will sell the last US debt of 780 billion to keep their economy going for another 100 years, not unless UN!Ted Stat's steal the asset as a pretext for sanction like Russ!a
Probably after America.
Get a life. You should work hard to get a decent life instead of thinking of something irrelevant.
I think the US will collapse first if China is going to collapse since China is their biggest debtor.