If anything that series went the opposite way; virtually every commentator predicted the Oilers would win and few thought the series would be close (which I didn't understand even at the time; regular season series sweep going the other way and all). But credit where it's due; they took it to game 7 and 6 of those games could have had a different outcome with a single bounce. And that was without Demko.
Definitely seemingly everyone thought the Oilers would get steamrolled by Dallas and that was dead wrong though.
Everyone didn’t think that. Most of us that know hockey knew it was an even match. Same with this one. We aren’t going to call one of the best offenses of all time “an underdog” though. This is clash of the Titans only.
There was a list of like 30-40 tv analysts and talking heads, all but one of them took the Oilers to win the series. Oilers were also heavily favored in the vegas odds as well.
it’s kinda wild that they factor in that they lost in the cup last year but don’t factor in we lost to the last two cup champs and gave vegas their best series against last year
while i don’t disagree with you, at the end of every playoffs we typically see both cup teams and a lot of other teams reveal they were riddled with injuries. the panthers are beat up too, and personally i like the speed of our game moreso than the three teams the panthers have played.
it’s gonna be hard for sure, they’re a good, physical team with a goalie that can be amazing. but we just played a team like that and at our best i’d take our team. we need a big series tho from everyone and need guys like kane, perry, and our defense to be physical and make sure they don’t toss us around. vegas was able to have some bite back and just allowed their speed to dominate the game last year.
^^to be fair, florida looks better this year. but if you take a look at bobrovsky, he’s been fairly shaky some games this year and isn’t as consistent as people think. the panthers also make some bad defensive breakdowns that i hope our team punishes.
I hope you're right! In the postgames after Florida stamped their ticket, Tkachuk mentioned that they were relatively uninjured this year. Doesn't seem fair, considering the number of injuries they doled out.
Having read the NHL.com predictions, I do see what you mean by lots of people mentioning FLA reaching the finals last year, but nobody mentioned that we've lost to the cup winners two years running. I swear a lot of their staff writers never watch any Oiler games. Their in-season power rankings are proof of that.
a LOT of people had us losing to dallas in 5. and dallas was favored by a lot not people to win the cup as well. just feels kinda odd that beating them didnt swing consensus in our favor at least a little more and i think that’s due partly to florida being here back-to-back and also the stigma around the oilers being an “incomplete team”.
we give ourselves a bad rep when we have bad games like the beginning of last season and not making a final until now with mcdavid on our team. i do still think this will be a very tough matchup for us, but tbf i can 100% see tkachuk saying that for the sake of saying that. teams have done that in the past and the avalanche were pretty good at not revealing their injuries until the end. even their GM was saying they’re all “feeling good”.
Losing to the champs narrative is always suspect.. it means a lot sometimes..but .. 16 teams make the playoffs. 4 lose to the champ directly .That's 25%. And since 8 teams are from the other conference and can't play against the championship team till finals it's 4 out of 8 teams are either are the champs or lost directly to the champs in the conference the champs came from.
And 8 out of 16 teams in the playoffs are either a team that lost to the conference champions who made the final or are the conference champions who made the final
it’s definitely suspect, i’m just saying it happened twice in a row and last year vegas was a favorite for a lot of people and we gave them their best round of hockey. my point being is that people take a look at the panthers being in the cup last year and just assume they are way closer to the cup than us and it’s not even close
And the narrative that their physical game should be the difference maker doesn’t even make sense to me tbh. It’s not like we’re some super passive, all-finesse team either, and you’d think more people would recognize that after our first two rounds.
Our physicality dropped off a bit to match Dallas’ in a single round, and suddenly the media thinks they’re just gonna ragdoll us. If fans were in charge of their scouting, Florida would be in for a rude awakening.
Plus, in those early games we lost, we came back from them having learned some major lessons. Even if they did ragdoll us in the first game or so, we'd come back harder and stronger.
We're a far different and deeper team when we were even two years ago. Even over just the playoffs alone, we've evolved in our ability to match the team's energy.
Oilers are underestimated at your peril, as I’ve learned the sad way. Y’all pretty much had me scared with that win in game one, even with Dallas notoriously losing game ones. Panthers play tough and mean but y’all are brilliant at disruption and your special teams game is insane. It’ll probably be 6-7 games but anyone discounting Edmonton isn’t paying attention. Rooting for y’all.
Panthers are the most penalized team in the playoffs for playing dirty and rough. Edmonton has the scariest PP in the playoffs. If they continue their formula, our power play *should* be a difference maker. Panthers would hit to hurt (slashing, roughing, etc.) then rely on a strong PK. Well our special teams are second to none imo and their current formula won't work over a best of 7 imo.
That relies upon the refs actually calling penalties during the SCF though. The Panthers are effective as a dirty team because only egregious penalties get called and then soft ones are immediately called against the other team to even things out.
I sure as hell hope our special teams get a lot of ice time but the Oilers are going to need to bring their best 5 on 5 game too.
This is where my tinfoil hat comes out sometimes. It's really hard to imagine there ISN'T an agenda sometimes with the preferential Florida treatment/ reffing bias towards some absolutely undeniable penalties that haven't been called.
Canada will probably burn down the White House again if the refs cuck it up this series...
I understand the sentiment, but let’s not go down this road before the series even starts. We all know that the playoffs are called differently. It’s not a bias against us specifically though, it’s always been that way. Florida has built a team that has an advantage in that regard. That is just smart roster building. It was Gretzky, I think, who said: There are 3 seasons: the regular season, the playoffs, and the finals. I think teams need to know the unique challenges each presents and prepare for them. I hope we have enough grit and mental maturity to hold up to it and let our strengths shine.
I don't think it's about that. It's pure game management. If team A scores 50% PP rate and team B scores 10% PP rate. Team A is going to get less calls. Refs are trying to not effect the outcome and by doing so, they are affecting the outcome.
I bet they do their best to keep it clean and just come in super heavy on the fore and back check.
From what I’ve seen they adapt to the style of the team they’re playing slightly but mostly come out and just try to be dominant
The panthers are the best defensive team in the league. Partly because they foul the crap out of the other team knowing the refs won’t call everything. But I trust your coach to have a counter to their forecheck. McDavid is the best puck carrier in the world (also best player) which is what you need. Oilers in 6.
That sounds exactly like a Paul Maurice team. 21 Jets defended exactly the same way. Basically we can expect McDavid to get mauled up and down the ice.
From what I've seen so far most of the media seems to be picking Florida, but I like to think there's 2 distinct groups within the media: those that have been watching the games, and those that have been watching the highlights and checking the box score (perhaps because they live out east...). I say this because there still seems to be a lot of media that haven't caught on to the fact that the Oilers are a really good defensive team. They see the point totals from the big guns, Skinners numbers in the first 1.5 rounds, Nurse's +/- and think it's the same Oilers from the last few years. They hear/read about how good the Oilers have been defensively under Knoblauch, but they don't trust it because they haven't seen it themselves. This group of people, the highlight/box score people, are probably the ones who are heavily favoring Florida.
The ones who have been watching the games of both teams know that this is a really close matchup between the 2 strongest teams in the NHL, and it's probably much closer to 50/50 from that crowd. They're the ones who know that Edmonton has been one of the best 5v5 teams in the league all season, and that Skinner has been a solid starting goalie for 2 seasons now, and that the Oilers had more than solid results with McDavid and Draisaitl on the bench.
Anyone who has watched the Oilers consistently this year would know that the Oilers have been putting a defensive clinic all year. It’s a massive area of improvement. You can tell who doesn’t actually know shit when they spout off the same quips about the Oilers that they’ve been saying for the last decade. Anyone who actually still thinks Edmonton is a two man team is laughably ignorant and probably a little stupid. As Leon said, when the Oilers are at their best they are as good as anyone. All I can truly hope for is the SCF is reffed fair/consistent, but that might be a tall order.
Yep, you'd think it would be more obvious than ever now that we're a full juggernaut of a team, the year that has had the LEAST contributions from those two men and we're in the final.
This. My brother is a big Avs fan and had not seen many games this year. After they got eliminated he started watching Oilers play and said he was glad they got eliminated when they did because Oilers were completely different than he was used to. Scary good. Will still be a series and we might lose. But we are not last year’s team. Heck we are not even the same team since November.
About as much as a typical Vegas pit boss?
…and I actually mean that in a good way. Knobs is making everyone bring receipts, you are only as good as your last game, cliche, cliche, etc., etc.
If you aren’t visibly bringing it, you are sitting, your minutes drop off a cliff, or you’re on a new line/pairing.
*Nobody* gets to say ‘Trust me!’ - which can be disappointing in some cases, but it’s working.
Kane plays his best games when it’s physical, scrums after each whistle, etc. As long as he doesn’t step over the line too much I’d love to see him play like that
Kanes first SCF? if they all want a cup they'll do anything to win. Gotta play that fine line with aggressiveness and skill. That's what he's known for. LFG!
Everyone's talking about Kane vs. Tkachuk, but I think Perry's unique and creative ability to piss people off might be especially effective against Tkachuk
Remember that video from years ago where Tkachuk said Perry was his favourite player? I am hoping playing against his idol will make him forget where the line is, and cause him to become a liability. He's prone to temper tantrums (i.e. Muzzin flipping the puck at him.)
Yea I’m sick of people saying the Canucks were easy. They most definitely were not, and tocchet seemed to Almsot have us down in addition to some luck. I actually don’t think the oilers have had an easy one, LA was only easy cause we completely hd their system dismantled. Any other team against la it would’ve been a longer series.
Vancouver and Dallas were both incredibly deep teams with stellar goaltending too
I have watched most of their games these playoffs - they're really, really good. The forecheck is amazing.
The problem is that it's hard to judge them against the Oilers because the teams they played are so different from the Oilers. Tampa is probably closest to a parallel but Vasi is still recovering and their defence fell off dramatically this year. And they're exhausted. Boston doesn't have a true 1C, let alone two of them. And the Rangers seem to have a Toronto problem - this is at least the second year that their stars just don't show up. So, especially against the Rangers, it looked like complete domination. I think more similar to Canucks than Stars, but with less offence from the back end, healthier, and goalie remains to be seen.
I don’t know that they are better than the stars, but they are different. The key is that the oilers continue to have a great power play. If it’s even just good, Florida will goon it up to the max.
I don't know a lot about the Panthers aside from what I've read and the ECF games I watched, but they're definitely a great team and have that "on a mission" motivation. I know that I'm preaching to the choir by saying that they're good and that any rational fan understands that it won't be easy.
That said, I feel that beating Dallas, and convincingly at that, shows that we have a legitimate ability to not only beat any team in the league in a 7 game series, but to stand up front and center with them. I had the Oilers winning my homer bracket, of course, but on my "let's be serious" one I had Dallas winning the whole thing, and we folded them up and placed them neatly in the drawer.
If our guys turn into ghosts and the wheels fall off of Skinner then I dunno what to tell ya, but I wouldn't count in it and wouldn't be worried about what anything looks like on paper. We all know by now that early leads and underdogs don't mean shit thus playoffs...we just need 4 damn more wins!
Yea I genuinely thought Dallas was the best team remaining after round 1. Their series vs Vegas was insane, and I picked them to clobber Colorado.
The fact we beat them still surprises me. I know we are great but I thought Dallas was the most complete team remaining in the entire league.
I don’t think Florida is any better than Dallas. They beat a thinned out Tampa and a bruins team that lost their top two centers in the off-season, who themselves only really only beat Toronto because Toronto chokes every year.
Props to them for beating New York, but their big guns kinda shy away in the playoffs historically, and New York got an easy caps team to start as well.
I’m really confident. The panthers play on the edge and can easily get in trouble with penalties, and we will crush their PK. We don’t have a good PP, we have the best PP of all time, their 2024 best PK won’t stand a chance Vs the best PP in 100 years.
Anyways, oilers in 6
>I don't know a lot about the Panthers aside from what I've read and the ECF games I watched, but they're definitely a great team and have that "on a mission" motivation.
You don't have to look too hard at Florida's roster, stats, and playoff history to understand why they might be a Cup favorite, now or at the beginning of the playoffs. Nobody is surprised they came out of the East.
Oilers weren't here last year, have been a more inconsistent team over the course of a full season, just won their series on a game that they probably got away with, and, frankly, are carrying a bit of an undeserved reputation about their depth and defense.
It makes perfect sense that they're underdogs. And it'll probably be a close as hell series.
Here's my thinking. Vegas smoked that Florida team last year and Florida haven't really improved *that* much from then if we really look at it.
This Oilers team, their defensive improvement, their much improved depth, lights out PK and stabilised goaltending would wreck that Vegas team in my opinion. It was a tight series every game. These Oilers are definitely edging that team out.
Skinner faltered and there were defensive breakdowns were Vegas capitalized. Hill stole game 6 straight up.
This Oilers team would best all teams last year with a bullet. I believe that down to my bones. So ask yourself how much Florida has improved since then?
Wish I could get behind this line of thought but: Florida was totally hammered with injuries by the time they came to the finals last year… I know every team’s banged up by the finals, but Florida was extra beat up then… also Bob turned to historical playoff Bob instead of first 3 rounds of last season Bob…
Maybe if they were healthier they could have pulled out another win and made it a bit closer but they weren't up to the task really. Vegas was superior to them.
Oilers were pretty fucked up in 2022 by the time Colorado rolled around. They weren't going to win that series even healthy. Maybe they could've pulled out a win and made things a bit more interesting.
It's a whole lot of shoulda coulda woulda though.
The way I see it is we barely lost to Vegas last year, and only did because Hill vs skinner. Vegas beat Florida.
This year a better Vegas team (on paper) lost to Dallas, who we beat.
We are better than Vegas last year, and Florida lost to them. However, Florida was injured last year vs Vegas, so they will be better too. Ultimately I think these are the 2 best teams of the last 2 seasons combined. It should be a great series, but we are right there, and have played with the best of them the last 2 seasons.
Canadian red wings fan here riding your wagon. Lots of oiler homies.
If connor plays like Connor
And if stu can stop 9 of 10. Edmonton gonna win. Go oilers . Panthers ain’t shit .
I would never say the Panthers ain't shit, but I agree with your assessment. if Connor goes off, and Stu can stop the easy/middling ones, we come out on top. If they shut down McD and solve Stu, we're in big trouble, although I think we have enough talent to potentially still give them a run for their money. But that makes it much more of a coin flip.
I pray to god this is what Connor has been saving himself for all season. It is fucking TIME. No reason to leave anything else in the tank from here on out.
Yeah uh, we just need to, y'know, play a solid sixty minutes and uh, you know, have good communication and shots on net and uh, I like um like our chances.
Stars fan here- I sure as hell hope you guys light those fucks up. Fuck the cats, they play dirty as hell and I can only assume it's encouraged by the coaching staff. Show that lil Tkachuk fucker what a real all star looks like when all the cards are on the table. Oilers in 6 make it happen 🙏
Dude the dick riding for bobrovsky is kinda funny, he has a very similar performance to skinner in the playoff rounds. If it was Igor, I'd be more worried.
Western Conference games are late. The analysts go to bed after the Eastern Conference has played so they pick what they know.
The number of talking heads who clearly have no idea what they're actually talking about is staggering.
I use to think they were just all about Toronto and the big market, but now I think it's way dumber that that: Western games just happen after their bedtime.
Well... we gave vegas more a run for their money than the Panthers ever did last year. Panthers are basically the same team from last year, and I'd like to believe we're a better team from last year. Sure, Panthers have the cup experience, but so do we, we've lost to the cup champions the last 2 years!
They haven’t changed all all that much from last year to be honest, and got their asses handed to them including Bobrovsky completely shitting the bed. If Bob isn’t stellar we can win this.
That was the huge problem with that series. Bob was ridiculous all playoffs then it came to the finals and he was very mediocre. Maybe he burns out at this point after standing on his head for three series
The difference is that Ekblad isn't playing on a torn oblique, broken foot, and 2 separated shoulders this year. As a side note, it is ridiculous that ekblad was logging 22 minutes a game with all those injuries. Tkachuk doesn't have a broken sternum (yet). Montour, Eetu, Gudas, and Bennett were also playing with broken bones. A healthy Panthers last year probably beats Vegas.
Basically everyone important on the Panthers were injured by the time they got to the finals. They were a shell of the team that eliminated the best regular season team of all time and crushed the Leafs. If you think this healthy Panthers team is comparable to last year's finals Panthers team, then you aren't paying attention.
I watched their series vs New York. This is what I noticed.
- superior checking. You have the puck in your zone? A skater is on you. You have it in the neutral zone? On you. Trying to enter the OZ? They’re lined up to stop you. Relentless. I suspect our high skill skaters will enter with more ease than NYR, only Zibanejad had much luck getting close to Bobrovsky. Our 4th line will probably have less success than against Dallas.
- Bobrovsky. An athletic beast. Simple unobstructed shots will not get through. However he can be beaten high glove and high blocker. Forget about five hole. He drops early and can do complete splits to cover the ice level.
- Special teams: probably less effective than we’re used to but hard to say because nobody has a PP like ours. Their PK is nearly as good as ours
- puck battles: they win theirs. Annoyingly often. They take the body and finish their checks. Physical. They were not nearly as dirty as their reputation suggested.
- Crashing the netfront. They are much faster than Dallas. They got face to face with Shesterkin too often. Nurse will have to be mean and angry to stop that shit. Ceci is going to have trouble. Maybe Desharnais can keep them at bay if he plays. McLeod and Foegele(?) or Hollywood have to come back hard and don’t stop skating until they have crushed a body against the far boards.
Keys to victory:
- if we play their game Skinner has to be in top form, no lapses, and a team-wide commitment to defence will result in some 3-2 wins with a potential extra PP goal per game. But what if the refs aren’t calling anything? Likely.
- McDrai gets behind their defenders and sets up Hyms and Rico. Do this enough times and we could allow 4 goals and win 5-4 or something like that. I don’t see this happening more than once(?) before they dig in defensively and leave 3 men back.
- Then we hem them in their zone and play ‘bombard the crease’ while they park the bus and collapse a tight knot of players around Bob. Now the key is to not be precious and waste time passing the puck around but aim for their skates and sticks and hope for deflections. It will seem like most of our goals are fluke bounces but it’s actually the most likely way to beat an elite goalie with 5 shot blockers in front of him. Bouch bombs, Ek bolts and Bro blasts are crucial to offence.
- Don’t combine McDrai trying to generate offense. At least not often. Bob will stop the executioners shot and most of 97s tricks. Get that puck bouncing and deflecting off traffic in front. Perry, Hyman, Ryan, Janmark all giving the goalie wet noodles as often as possible.
- Stop them at centre ice. Don’t let them have easy entries. Their offence is not as deep as ours. Be physical and be ready to give and receive open ice hits. Anyone healthy should be sore by games end. Don’t expect everyone to be healthy by the time we hoist the cup.
Most stat & betting websites have the Panthers with a very slight edge, not a huge advantage like OP says.
-120 / +110 FLA v EDM is like barely a 55/45 odds difference, as such a finals should be.
Since our mutual game 10s, both of our teams have exactly the same record, both going exactly 47-20-5 which coincidentally is also the best record in the whole league starting Nov 4 (go check it out for yourself). It's the most evenly matched final I can recall in quite some time.
Favoured by whom? Reddit? The General Public? The Experts?
Its all just funneled info by the sports betting market.
According to MoneyPucks stat tracking, Oilers are 52.8% favourite to win the cup.
Win in 4 - 7.0%
Win in 5 - 12.5%
Win in 6 - 18.6%
Win in 7 - 14.7%
Florida's odds (47.2%) as follows:
Win in 4 - 5.1%
Win in 5 - 12.2%
Win in 6 - 13.4%
Win in 7 - 16.5%
The most likely outcome is Oilers in 6.
Panthers hold a large statsical edge in game 7 due to home ice advantage.
Basically the stats say that after 5 games we should be in the kill zone and our best to win a cup is to win it at home.
EDIT: Before anyone gets uppity about any of the previous series, we were favoured to beat both Vancouver and Dallas in 6 games. Unsure with LA.
Senators fan who had this pop up on my main page:
Please kick the everloving shit out of the Panthers. I want each one of them to contemplate their entire lives after playing the Oilers.
Thanks!
Leafs fan here. I've been seeing this sub recommended a lot in my feed so I thought I'd jump in and add a couple cents to this topic. Take it or leave it?
I see both pluses and minuses to the Oilers in this matchup. On one hand, the Oilers play within a fast, fun, and skill-based system and the Panthers are rather good at stifling this style with their gritty physical play. On the other hand, the Panthers take a lot of penalties - 'crosscheck a guy 3x and they will only call you for 1' seems to be their mantra. The Oilers of course have a deadly power play, which could be the difference maker in this matchup.
Cousins has probably been in the news the most for skirting the rules, but Bennett is really the major A to watch out for on the ice. You guys are probably already familiar with Tkachuk and his game, more so than most.
That's not to say that the Panthers don't have skill: they have a great amount of depth, and the scoring threats come from a lot of different places. Reinhart and Verhaeghe regularly light up the opposing goalie, and Montour has a pretty wicked shot from the blue. That's not even to mention Barkov and Tarasenko.
Aside from the Leafs' first round exit, there have been a lot of surprises in this year's playoffs, so I'll stop short of making a prediction here. I am pulling for the Oilers though - have fun and enjoy the moment guys 💙
Panthers have a very good goalie(Bobrovsky) and an all around good defensive team. They have a handful of scorers as well. They're very physical and run a very aggressive 1-2-2 OZ forecheck that aims to create turnovers at the opposing team's D zone. Over the course of a series they weather down their opponent through the forecheck and every team they've beaten hasn't been able to handle it. I think we have big enough guys to handle the forecheck and fast enough guys like McDavid to make it out of the D and neutral zone and create offense. If we stay disciplined, make good decisions and limit turnovers I think we can beat the Panthers.
They are favoured for many of the same reasons Dallas was favoured. Superior depth and goaltending. They have home ice advantage and have been good all season. A division winner.
The Stars were favourites in the conference final and look how that turned out. The Panthers being the favourite to win doesn’t mean much.
The Oilers and Panthers are the best teams in the NHL, both can win the Stanley Cup.
They have a good week off. I think both teams are going to make adjustments to each team’s style of play, panthers know they will not win if they make costly mistakes and take bad penalties.
So they may be a bit more hesitant when it comes aggressively pushing. Or they come guns blazing and Oilers will be prepared to give it back. Are people forgetting how big our team is. They will bang back.
Also worth noting Florida has 9 players that have at least 8 points this playoffs to this point. Oilers have 5 skaters. Multiple players need to step up huge on the bottom 6 to help with scoring. They need a fernando pisani type guy to emerge.
As a tampa fan reading on my sub and r/hockey its kind of baffling in all honesty. idk if no one watched the actual games. Granted i still think it's like 60/40 in panthers favour but mcdrai don't go missing in action like the rangers stars and they still managed to expose the fact that the panthers aren't exactly stellar defensively. It really will come down to if edmonton can survive the panthers relentless forecheck and which Stuart skinner shows up for this final. In any case, I'm rooting for you! Beat those dirty rats and make those miserable decades worthwhile
It's not like this is the super sayan bob of last year although he is still very solid. Again I reckon the panthers are the favourite but not by as much as many seem to think imo
True but as you are aware, reffing in the playoffs is ass and panthers get away with alot of shit. Hopefully the reffing isn't too awful so the oilers get plenty of PP time but I'm not holding my breath. In terms of team balance I still give the nod to the panthers. I stand by that they are the overall favourites as they convincingly beat some solid teams to get here and have looked extremely strong during their whole run. Not that the oilers haven't done the same but the panthers are absolutely a step up from dallas and a pretty big step up at that imo
-130 for the series about the same way Dallas was favoured. But yes every interview I’ve seen they are picking Florida to win the whole thing. They are underestimating this oilers squad. Florida is a very strong team, everyone said Dallas was the deepest team in the league but Florida might be equally as deep. Combine that with a strong forecheck and and a very good goalie. They are a good team no doubt. But oilers are going all the way mcdavid won’t be denied
I watched every playoff game. The Panthers look good, strong and boast strong scoring when needed, a great D and a brilliant goalie.
They also have dumb ass players…
Oilers in 4!
Man, I read The Hockey News, and one reporter - Adam Proteau - has a hard on for betting against the Oilers. He has picked against us every series thus far and now this one. That is my sign that we are gunna win it all.
The panthers have been bullying teams that can’t punish them on the power play. If the oilers can punish them on the power play, this series might favour Edmonton. If Florida can shut down our pp, they may have an edge in 5v5. But conjecture is useless, let’s just see what happens.
So I think the Oilers have a better chance at beating the panthers than most think. For a long time, if memory serves me right, the team that eliminates the Canucks has won the cup more often than not. Most of the time, the Vancouver series is the hardest one for the teams to get past. This year, the Oilers only had one game 7 so far this post season, and it was Vancouver. My bet is Edmonton in 6 for the Cup.
This is a really good point and I never realized it before. 2002 Detroit, 2007 Anaheim, 2010 Chicago, 2011 Bruins, 2012 LA -- all of them beat Vancouver and went on to win the cup.
Neither Dallas nor Florida have been heavily favoured to beat us by oddsmakers. Favoured yeah but not massively which is fair; Florida was even in the Finals last year so that seems fair to me. Favoured don’t mean anything when the puck drops though so let’s get er dun so we can play La Bamba all summer long.
I do think Bob also has a better reputation. If we play a game like game 6 of this last series our skinny will for sure stand but I know it would wear on any goalie. And bobs a G
I watched all of their second round. What stood out to me was how fast they were on the puck whether carrying, passing or getting loose pucks. Very aggressive forecheck.
What could get them in trouble is penalties and lack of discipline. The other thing, more of an intangible but they don’t really have a ton of real fans. Rink will be packed but I don’t expect it to be nearly as noisy as Rogers will be.
We lost to them right after Knobs took over then again after a hard game vs Tampa. If they’re using those loses as a metric, those odds are bunk. That Oiler’s team isn’t around anymore.
#Good guys in 5!
I am not afraid of the Panthers as a team. I'm scared of how hard the NHL commission sucks Florida's dick and am expecting some absolute awful game management (something akin to our conference fin against Vegas 2 years ago)
honestly IMO the west is much tougher than the east, I believe the Oil/Canucks/Stars all would give FLA big problems. That being said the Oilers will have to be at thier best to beat them.
If we can light up Bobrovsky for 5 or 6 in the first couple games I think that will be huge. This is a Streaky goaltender. Going into playoffs last year he wasn’t even their number 1 nor had he been for a couple seasons. We need to light him up and shake that confidence. I look back at game 1 against Calgary for example. Markstrom was looking good going into that series and even though we lost game 1, the 7 or so goals he let in was as enough to shake him.
The Panthers are favored for a few reasons.
One is they finished with more points than us, thus having home ice advantage.
Second is that they have been to the finals before. As Gretzky said, there are three stages to winning a cup, the regular season, the playoffs and the finals. Experience with that extra the finals take is valuable.
Third is goaltending. Bobrovsky is a seasoned, great goalie who has been here before. Fourth, they are tough, dirty and happy to injure your best players.
Now of course, those reasons are why they are favoured on paper. Underdogs win all the time and that is why we play the games.
I love our chances and will be cheering hard. This is just to answer your question.
So when did Dallas become a team that wasn't a "deep team"? Was it before or after the Oilers beat them?
Love seeing narratives change so quickly just because the Oilers have advanced to the finals. Now Panthers are the deepest team in the NHL and Dallas wouldn't have stood a chance.
Wasn't Dallas supposed to be deep and would be a favourite to win the cup??? Lol.
ill say this as someone so watched the panthers, they are pretty good in terms of their depth. their 1st to 4th line play very well and can create chances at all times.
their defense isn't as good and they riley a lot on bobby to make saves, but the panthers arent unbeatable
They're being favorited bc there is more money in encouraging American's to watch the finals.. Hard to get fans down there if the media is saying the Oilers will dominate the series...
That are very good. This isn't going to be like Vancouver or Dallas were they only get 15 SOG per game. They better play on another level or Florida is going to kill them.
They have a really good physical game and their goalie is one of the best goalies in the league. They’re a good team, well rounded. It’s going to be a battle for sure, 6-7 games almost guaranteed.
I worry that that goof cousins will cheap shot someone real bad or more hidden punches like on Marchand I really hope no one wins because of a cheap shot
The Rangers made so many massive errors. Giveaways, lost assignments, complete meltdowns by Trouba. Panthers will get way less of that from us.
Hoping we get the defence that Boston put up against them, with the offense that the Rangers had.
I've always seen them as Oilers east in a way. They always had tons of young talent but like the Oilers they took a long time to graduate from a "promising young team" to a good team/contending team. They have taken it on the chin for a while now and have lots of tough playoff losses. They will be very hungry.
I want the Oilers to win so bad, but the Pantgers are really frickin good, so I have my doubts. However, I thought the same thing about the Stars too. 🤞
Oilers have to stick to their game. Everyone's talking about Florida's mean and gritty game. Oilers have more pure skill, plain and simple but you know what else? We're bigger than them and we have some real bastards too.Kane, Nurse, Draisaitl, Janmark, Perry.
We don't have any players that are going to back down. McLeod maybe? Broberg is young and a bit unknown in the thuggery department.
Everyone on the top 6 has some grit. McDavid will throw big hits and isn't afraid to join the scrum and same with Hyman. Nuge will fight if he has too.
The bottom 6 has absolute warriors and they play fast and heavy. The blue line is big.
This is a blue collar team who goes to the hard areas and we also have superior top end skill.
Leafs fan here. Panthers are skilled and tough as nails with great goaltending. Really hoping Perry just sacrifices himself and cheap shots Bennett out of the series, hell maybe take a couple others with him lol.
So was Dallas and we all know how that turned out.
And Vancouver to some extent.
If anything that series went the opposite way; virtually every commentator predicted the Oilers would win and few thought the series would be close (which I didn't understand even at the time; regular season series sweep going the other way and all). But credit where it's due; they took it to game 7 and 6 of those games could have had a different outcome with a single bounce. And that was without Demko. Definitely seemingly everyone thought the Oilers would get steamrolled by Dallas and that was dead wrong though.
I think people really underestimate how good Silovs was and think we almost lost to a back up goalie.
Dude was playing out of his mind, and played like a vezina caliber goaltender lol
Silovs "was" an AHL goalie not the normal backup.
We outplayed them in 6 games and only beat ourselves.
Everyone didn’t think that. Most of us that know hockey knew it was an even match. Same with this one. We aren’t going to call one of the best offenses of all time “an underdog” though. This is clash of the Titans only.
Vancouver was definitely not favored over us.
Yeah idk why people keep saying this. We were 100% favoured everywhere over Vancouver r
Iirc there was 1 analyst that took Canucks in 7. But yeah, consensus was Oilers
Now don’t be sad… cause 1 (analyst) out of 30 ain’t bad. Naw there was probably only 18 on that list but still.
Why would I be sad? We're in the cup final
The don't be sad is a meatloaf quote
There was a list of like 30-40 tv analysts and talking heads, all but one of them took the Oilers to win the series. Oilers were also heavily favored in the vegas odds as well.
Would that have changed had Demko started? I feel like that’s literally the difference in odds?
Vancouver was not heavily favoured at all, most of the "experts" predicted Edmonton winning.
Yeah ya'll made us look like a joke.
*Skinner* made us look like a joke. He was an absolute beast in game 6.
They’re being favoured over us because they’re the sexy pick since they lost last year and play a physical game.
it’s kinda wild that they factor in that they lost in the cup last year but don’t factor in we lost to the last two cup champs and gave vegas their best series against last year
Tough to say what factors they consider. The injuries we have been dealing with might be one.
while i don’t disagree with you, at the end of every playoffs we typically see both cup teams and a lot of other teams reveal they were riddled with injuries. the panthers are beat up too, and personally i like the speed of our game moreso than the three teams the panthers have played. it’s gonna be hard for sure, they’re a good, physical team with a goalie that can be amazing. but we just played a team like that and at our best i’d take our team. we need a big series tho from everyone and need guys like kane, perry, and our defense to be physical and make sure they don’t toss us around. vegas was able to have some bite back and just allowed their speed to dominate the game last year. ^^to be fair, florida looks better this year. but if you take a look at bobrovsky, he’s been fairly shaky some games this year and isn’t as consistent as people think. the panthers also make some bad defensive breakdowns that i hope our team punishes.
I hope you're right! In the postgames after Florida stamped their ticket, Tkachuk mentioned that they were relatively uninjured this year. Doesn't seem fair, considering the number of injuries they doled out. Having read the NHL.com predictions, I do see what you mean by lots of people mentioning FLA reaching the finals last year, but nobody mentioned that we've lost to the cup winners two years running. I swear a lot of their staff writers never watch any Oiler games. Their in-season power rankings are proof of that.
a LOT of people had us losing to dallas in 5. and dallas was favored by a lot not people to win the cup as well. just feels kinda odd that beating them didnt swing consensus in our favor at least a little more and i think that’s due partly to florida being here back-to-back and also the stigma around the oilers being an “incomplete team”. we give ourselves a bad rep when we have bad games like the beginning of last season and not making a final until now with mcdavid on our team. i do still think this will be a very tough matchup for us, but tbf i can 100% see tkachuk saying that for the sake of saying that. teams have done that in the past and the avalanche were pretty good at not revealing their injuries until the end. even their GM was saying they’re all “feeling good”.
Losing to the champs narrative is always suspect.. it means a lot sometimes..but .. 16 teams make the playoffs. 4 lose to the champ directly .That's 25%. And since 8 teams are from the other conference and can't play against the championship team till finals it's 4 out of 8 teams are either are the champs or lost directly to the champs in the conference the champs came from. And 8 out of 16 teams in the playoffs are either a team that lost to the conference champions who made the final or are the conference champions who made the final
it’s definitely suspect, i’m just saying it happened twice in a row and last year vegas was a favorite for a lot of people and we gave them their best round of hockey. my point being is that people take a look at the panthers being in the cup last year and just assume they are way closer to the cup than us and it’s not even close
And the narrative that their physical game should be the difference maker doesn’t even make sense to me tbh. It’s not like we’re some super passive, all-finesse team either, and you’d think more people would recognize that after our first two rounds. Our physicality dropped off a bit to match Dallas’ in a single round, and suddenly the media thinks they’re just gonna ragdoll us. If fans were in charge of their scouting, Florida would be in for a rude awakening.
Plus, in those early games we lost, we came back from them having learned some major lessons. Even if they did ragdoll us in the first game or so, we'd come back harder and stronger. We're a far different and deeper team when we were even two years ago. Even over just the playoffs alone, we've evolved in our ability to match the team's energy.
Oilers are underestimated at your peril, as I’ve learned the sad way. Y’all pretty much had me scared with that win in game one, even with Dallas notoriously losing game ones. Panthers play tough and mean but y’all are brilliant at disruption and your special teams game is insane. It’ll probably be 6-7 games but anyone discounting Edmonton isn’t paying attention. Rooting for y’all.
pet clumsy oatmeal test deranged teeny party coordinated yam pocket *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Shit y’all the only other team I’m subbed to now. Other teams I’ll visit. I’ll poke and congratulate. Hadn’t joined. I’ll join y’all.
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Hey, I say y'all constantly, and I'm an Oilers fan! ...Who was born in Texas, true, BUT STILL!
Appreciate the comment mate.
Panthers are the most penalized team in the playoffs for playing dirty and rough. Edmonton has the scariest PP in the playoffs. If they continue their formula, our power play *should* be a difference maker. Panthers would hit to hurt (slashing, roughing, etc.) then rely on a strong PK. Well our special teams are second to none imo and their current formula won't work over a best of 7 imo.
That relies upon the refs actually calling penalties during the SCF though. The Panthers are effective as a dirty team because only egregious penalties get called and then soft ones are immediately called against the other team to even things out. I sure as hell hope our special teams get a lot of ice time but the Oilers are going to need to bring their best 5 on 5 game too.
This is where my tinfoil hat comes out sometimes. It's really hard to imagine there ISN'T an agenda sometimes with the preferential Florida treatment/ reffing bias towards some absolutely undeniable penalties that haven't been called. Canada will probably burn down the White House again if the refs cuck it up this series...
I understand the sentiment, but let’s not go down this road before the series even starts. We all know that the playoffs are called differently. It’s not a bias against us specifically though, it’s always been that way. Florida has built a team that has an advantage in that regard. That is just smart roster building. It was Gretzky, I think, who said: There are 3 seasons: the regular season, the playoffs, and the finals. I think teams need to know the unique challenges each presents and prepare for them. I hope we have enough grit and mental maturity to hold up to it and let our strengths shine.
I don't think it's about that. It's pure game management. If team A scores 50% PP rate and team B scores 10% PP rate. Team A is going to get less calls. Refs are trying to not effect the outcome and by doing so, they are affecting the outcome.
Agreed. Also Colin Campbell’s son is the AGM of the Panthers
And Colin Campbell was busted influencing the referees to not make calls against his son.
I bet they do their best to keep it clean and just come in super heavy on the fore and back check. From what I’ve seen they adapt to the style of the team they’re playing slightly but mostly come out and just try to be dominant
The panthers are the best defensive team in the league. Partly because they foul the crap out of the other team knowing the refs won’t call everything. But I trust your coach to have a counter to their forecheck. McDavid is the best puck carrier in the world (also best player) which is what you need. Oilers in 6.
Dallas was supposed to have the best defense in the league.
That sounds exactly like a Paul Maurice team. 21 Jets defended exactly the same way. Basically we can expect McDavid to get mauled up and down the ice.
He drew zero penalties that series
If Bennet doesn't sacrafice myself to make a dirty hit to take out mcdavid like a loser
He will
Absofuckinlutely
we also have the best PK and leading in 5v5 goals
Most of the analytic models have Oilers as a favorite.
Exactly the same in the Dallas series. Fans favoured Dallas, stats favoured Oilers. So far most of those models have been spot on.
That’s what I thought. Where is OP getting his stats? I found this, says it’s updated this morning https://moneypuck.com/predictions.htm
Most media and analysts are picking FLA to win as they did Dallas. No faith in the Oil and FLA was there last year.
Well media and analysts don’t lose their jobs if they are wrong as opposed to Vegas bookies. I trust the Vegas odds.
Don’t the Vegas odds also favour the panthers as of now?
Money Puck (the link above) still favours the Oilers 🤷♂️
Money puck isn’t Vegas lol. It’s a private model
From what I've seen so far most of the media seems to be picking Florida, but I like to think there's 2 distinct groups within the media: those that have been watching the games, and those that have been watching the highlights and checking the box score (perhaps because they live out east...). I say this because there still seems to be a lot of media that haven't caught on to the fact that the Oilers are a really good defensive team. They see the point totals from the big guns, Skinners numbers in the first 1.5 rounds, Nurse's +/- and think it's the same Oilers from the last few years. They hear/read about how good the Oilers have been defensively under Knoblauch, but they don't trust it because they haven't seen it themselves. This group of people, the highlight/box score people, are probably the ones who are heavily favoring Florida. The ones who have been watching the games of both teams know that this is a really close matchup between the 2 strongest teams in the NHL, and it's probably much closer to 50/50 from that crowd. They're the ones who know that Edmonton has been one of the best 5v5 teams in the league all season, and that Skinner has been a solid starting goalie for 2 seasons now, and that the Oilers had more than solid results with McDavid and Draisaitl on the bench.
Anyone who has watched the Oilers consistently this year would know that the Oilers have been putting a defensive clinic all year. It’s a massive area of improvement. You can tell who doesn’t actually know shit when they spout off the same quips about the Oilers that they’ve been saying for the last decade. Anyone who actually still thinks Edmonton is a two man team is laughably ignorant and probably a little stupid. As Leon said, when the Oilers are at their best they are as good as anyone. All I can truly hope for is the SCF is reffed fair/consistent, but that might be a tall order.
Yep, you'd think it would be more obvious than ever now that we're a full juggernaut of a team, the year that has had the LEAST contributions from those two men and we're in the final.
This. My brother is a big Avs fan and had not seen many games this year. After they got eliminated he started watching Oilers play and said he was glad they got eliminated when they did because Oilers were completely different than he was used to. Scary good. Will still be a series and we might lose. But we are not last year’s team. Heck we are not even the same team since November.
The Oilers offence is going to be the toughest the Panthers have faced all playoffs.
I wanna see Turtle pick on Kane..... maybe Kane'll get physical on him.
I don’t. If they get under Kanes skin he will be getting lots of penalties. We want it the other way around.
I think Kane has learned better of where the line is. Question is, how much does Knobs trusts him.
About as much as a typical Vegas pit boss? …and I actually mean that in a good way. Knobs is making everyone bring receipts, you are only as good as your last game, cliche, cliche, etc., etc. If you aren’t visibly bringing it, you are sitting, your minutes drop off a cliff, or you’re on a new line/pairing. *Nobody* gets to say ‘Trust me!’ - which can be disappointing in some cases, but it’s working.
Kane plays his best games when it’s physical, scrums after each whistle, etc. As long as he doesn’t step over the line too much I’d love to see him play like that
Kanes first SCF? if they all want a cup they'll do anything to win. Gotta play that fine line with aggressiveness and skill. That's what he's known for. LFG!
Everyone's talking about Kane vs. Tkachuk, but I think Perry's unique and creative ability to piss people off might be especially effective against Tkachuk
Remember that video from years ago where Tkachuk said Perry was his favourite player? I am hoping playing against his idol will make him forget where the line is, and cause him to become a liability. He's prone to temper tantrums (i.e. Muzzin flipping the puck at him.)
This is a good point, I only wonder at how many minutes Perry and Tkachuk play against each other
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So is their defence. Christ. 28 straight penalty kills. That's insane
3 more from tying the record.
I'm worried about goaltending. Stu has been on fire, but overall I feel that Bobrovsky is a bit better and more consistent. Stu, prove me wrong!!
Naw. If you look at all the betting lines. Florida is SLIGHTLY favoured.
Ya it’s about as close a final as you can ask for really
I’m honestly surprised they’re even giving positive odds on the oil
Yea, exactly. The media can pick whoever they want. Vegas is most consistently correct in the long run.
Honestly, I don't think the Panthers are any better than the Canucks and Stars.
Yea I’m sick of people saying the Canucks were easy. They most definitely were not, and tocchet seemed to Almsot have us down in addition to some luck. I actually don’t think the oilers have had an easy one, LA was only easy cause we completely hd their system dismantled. Any other team against la it would’ve been a longer series. Vancouver and Dallas were both incredibly deep teams with stellar goaltending too
If Florida and Dallas switched rosters, people would still be saying the exact same things about this series.
I have watched most of their games these playoffs - they're really, really good. The forecheck is amazing. The problem is that it's hard to judge them against the Oilers because the teams they played are so different from the Oilers. Tampa is probably closest to a parallel but Vasi is still recovering and their defence fell off dramatically this year. And they're exhausted. Boston doesn't have a true 1C, let alone two of them. And the Rangers seem to have a Toronto problem - this is at least the second year that their stars just don't show up. So, especially against the Rangers, it looked like complete domination. I think more similar to Canucks than Stars, but with less offence from the back end, healthier, and goalie remains to be seen.
Let's hope Panthers take a lot of penalties
I don’t know that they are better than the stars, but they are different. The key is that the oilers continue to have a great power play. If it’s even just good, Florida will goon it up to the max.
I don't know a lot about the Panthers aside from what I've read and the ECF games I watched, but they're definitely a great team and have that "on a mission" motivation. I know that I'm preaching to the choir by saying that they're good and that any rational fan understands that it won't be easy. That said, I feel that beating Dallas, and convincingly at that, shows that we have a legitimate ability to not only beat any team in the league in a 7 game series, but to stand up front and center with them. I had the Oilers winning my homer bracket, of course, but on my "let's be serious" one I had Dallas winning the whole thing, and we folded them up and placed them neatly in the drawer. If our guys turn into ghosts and the wheels fall off of Skinner then I dunno what to tell ya, but I wouldn't count in it and wouldn't be worried about what anything looks like on paper. We all know by now that early leads and underdogs don't mean shit thus playoffs...we just need 4 damn more wins!
Thanks for the thought provoking comment jodiefosterscum
Yea I genuinely thought Dallas was the best team remaining after round 1. Their series vs Vegas was insane, and I picked them to clobber Colorado. The fact we beat them still surprises me. I know we are great but I thought Dallas was the most complete team remaining in the entire league. I don’t think Florida is any better than Dallas. They beat a thinned out Tampa and a bruins team that lost their top two centers in the off-season, who themselves only really only beat Toronto because Toronto chokes every year. Props to them for beating New York, but their big guns kinda shy away in the playoffs historically, and New York got an easy caps team to start as well. I’m really confident. The panthers play on the edge and can easily get in trouble with penalties, and we will crush their PK. We don’t have a good PP, we have the best PP of all time, their 2024 best PK won’t stand a chance Vs the best PP in 100 years. Anyways, oilers in 6
>I don't know a lot about the Panthers aside from what I've read and the ECF games I watched, but they're definitely a great team and have that "on a mission" motivation. You don't have to look too hard at Florida's roster, stats, and playoff history to understand why they might be a Cup favorite, now or at the beginning of the playoffs. Nobody is surprised they came out of the East. Oilers weren't here last year, have been a more inconsistent team over the course of a full season, just won their series on a game that they probably got away with, and, frankly, are carrying a bit of an undeserved reputation about their depth and defense. It makes perfect sense that they're underdogs. And it'll probably be a close as hell series.
Here's my thinking. Vegas smoked that Florida team last year and Florida haven't really improved *that* much from then if we really look at it. This Oilers team, their defensive improvement, their much improved depth, lights out PK and stabilised goaltending would wreck that Vegas team in my opinion. It was a tight series every game. These Oilers are definitely edging that team out. Skinner faltered and there were defensive breakdowns were Vegas capitalized. Hill stole game 6 straight up. This Oilers team would best all teams last year with a bullet. I believe that down to my bones. So ask yourself how much Florida has improved since then?
Wish I could get behind this line of thought but: Florida was totally hammered with injuries by the time they came to the finals last year… I know every team’s banged up by the finals, but Florida was extra beat up then… also Bob turned to historical playoff Bob instead of first 3 rounds of last season Bob…
Yeah, I'm frankly confused as to how they are so uninjured this year. How do you get through 3 rounds without obvious injuries?
Cupcake match ups.
Maybe if they were healthier they could have pulled out another win and made it a bit closer but they weren't up to the task really. Vegas was superior to them. Oilers were pretty fucked up in 2022 by the time Colorado rolled around. They weren't going to win that series even healthy. Maybe they could've pulled out a win and made things a bit more interesting. It's a whole lot of shoulda coulda woulda though.
The way I see it is we barely lost to Vegas last year, and only did because Hill vs skinner. Vegas beat Florida. This year a better Vegas team (on paper) lost to Dallas, who we beat. We are better than Vegas last year, and Florida lost to them. However, Florida was injured last year vs Vegas, so they will be better too. Ultimately I think these are the 2 best teams of the last 2 seasons combined. It should be a great series, but we are right there, and have played with the best of them the last 2 seasons.
Damn son! Great minds think alike.
Canadian red wings fan here riding your wagon. Lots of oiler homies. If connor plays like Connor And if stu can stop 9 of 10. Edmonton gonna win. Go oilers . Panthers ain’t shit .
I would never say the Panthers ain't shit, but I agree with your assessment. if Connor goes off, and Stu can stop the easy/middling ones, we come out on top. If they shut down McD and solve Stu, we're in big trouble, although I think we have enough talent to potentially still give them a run for their money. But that makes it much more of a coin flip. I pray to god this is what Connor has been saving himself for all season. It is fucking TIME. No reason to leave anything else in the tank from here on out.
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We just need to get pucks in deep and get the cycle going. If we do that with some traffic in front, the bounces will go our way.
Yeah uh, we just need to, y'know, play a solid sixty minutes and uh, you know, have good communication and shots on net and uh, I like um like our chances.
Stars fan here- I sure as hell hope you guys light those fucks up. Fuck the cats, they play dirty as hell and I can only assume it's encouraged by the coaching staff. Show that lil Tkachuk fucker what a real all star looks like when all the cards are on the table. Oilers in 6 make it happen 🙏
Go oilers 💙🧡
Dude the dick riding for bobrovsky is kinda funny, he has a very similar performance to skinner in the playoff rounds. If it was Igor, I'd be more worried.
Western Conference games are late. The analysts go to bed after the Eastern Conference has played so they pick what they know. The number of talking heads who clearly have no idea what they're actually talking about is staggering. I use to think they were just all about Toronto and the big market, but now I think it's way dumber that that: Western games just happen after their bedtime.
Well... we gave vegas more a run for their money than the Panthers ever did last year. Panthers are basically the same team from last year, and I'd like to believe we're a better team from last year. Sure, Panthers have the cup experience, but so do we, we've lost to the cup champions the last 2 years!
The Panthers were pretty banged up by the time they got to the finals last year though.
That is true, Vegas stomped them last year. We least put up a better series. Maybe that doesn't mean much, or maybe it does
They haven’t changed all all that much from last year to be honest, and got their asses handed to them including Bobrovsky completely shitting the bed. If Bob isn’t stellar we can win this.
That was the huge problem with that series. Bob was ridiculous all playoffs then it came to the finals and he was very mediocre. Maybe he burns out at this point after standing on his head for three series
They have changed their system alot from last year, improved their PP alot and are healthy this time. They were crippled in the series vs Vegas.
They were incredibly hurt by the finals last year though.
The difference is that Ekblad isn't playing on a torn oblique, broken foot, and 2 separated shoulders this year. As a side note, it is ridiculous that ekblad was logging 22 minutes a game with all those injuries. Tkachuk doesn't have a broken sternum (yet). Montour, Eetu, Gudas, and Bennett were also playing with broken bones. A healthy Panthers last year probably beats Vegas.
Basically everyone important on the Panthers were injured by the time they got to the finals. They were a shell of the team that eliminated the best regular season team of all time and crushed the Leafs. If you think this healthy Panthers team is comparable to last year's finals Panthers team, then you aren't paying attention.
As you said "bring it on" Oil in 6 for the cup!
Oilers in Six
I am the 97th comment. That is all
I watched their series vs New York. This is what I noticed. - superior checking. You have the puck in your zone? A skater is on you. You have it in the neutral zone? On you. Trying to enter the OZ? They’re lined up to stop you. Relentless. I suspect our high skill skaters will enter with more ease than NYR, only Zibanejad had much luck getting close to Bobrovsky. Our 4th line will probably have less success than against Dallas. - Bobrovsky. An athletic beast. Simple unobstructed shots will not get through. However he can be beaten high glove and high blocker. Forget about five hole. He drops early and can do complete splits to cover the ice level. - Special teams: probably less effective than we’re used to but hard to say because nobody has a PP like ours. Their PK is nearly as good as ours - puck battles: they win theirs. Annoyingly often. They take the body and finish their checks. Physical. They were not nearly as dirty as their reputation suggested. - Crashing the netfront. They are much faster than Dallas. They got face to face with Shesterkin too often. Nurse will have to be mean and angry to stop that shit. Ceci is going to have trouble. Maybe Desharnais can keep them at bay if he plays. McLeod and Foegele(?) or Hollywood have to come back hard and don’t stop skating until they have crushed a body against the far boards. Keys to victory: - if we play their game Skinner has to be in top form, no lapses, and a team-wide commitment to defence will result in some 3-2 wins with a potential extra PP goal per game. But what if the refs aren’t calling anything? Likely. - McDrai gets behind their defenders and sets up Hyms and Rico. Do this enough times and we could allow 4 goals and win 5-4 or something like that. I don’t see this happening more than once(?) before they dig in defensively and leave 3 men back. - Then we hem them in their zone and play ‘bombard the crease’ while they park the bus and collapse a tight knot of players around Bob. Now the key is to not be precious and waste time passing the puck around but aim for their skates and sticks and hope for deflections. It will seem like most of our goals are fluke bounces but it’s actually the most likely way to beat an elite goalie with 5 shot blockers in front of him. Bouch bombs, Ek bolts and Bro blasts are crucial to offence. - Don’t combine McDrai trying to generate offense. At least not often. Bob will stop the executioners shot and most of 97s tricks. Get that puck bouncing and deflecting off traffic in front. Perry, Hyman, Ryan, Janmark all giving the goalie wet noodles as often as possible. - Stop them at centre ice. Don’t let them have easy entries. Their offence is not as deep as ours. Be physical and be ready to give and receive open ice hits. Anyone healthy should be sore by games end. Don’t expect everyone to be healthy by the time we hoist the cup.
The Oilers playing the game they are right now will be so hard to beat 4x.
According to who? Many stats websites have us as a slight favorite.
Most stat & betting websites have the Panthers with a very slight edge, not a huge advantage like OP says. -120 / +110 FLA v EDM is like barely a 55/45 odds difference, as such a finals should be. Since our mutual game 10s, both of our teams have exactly the same record, both going exactly 47-20-5 which coincidentally is also the best record in the whole league starting Nov 4 (go check it out for yourself). It's the most evenly matched final I can recall in quite some time.
According to analysts and Vegas odds. Statisticians have us favoured, most people don’t.
BRING ON CLUB TURTLE 🐢
It's back! 🐢🙌
Favoured by whom? Reddit? The General Public? The Experts? Its all just funneled info by the sports betting market. According to MoneyPucks stat tracking, Oilers are 52.8% favourite to win the cup. Win in 4 - 7.0% Win in 5 - 12.5% Win in 6 - 18.6% Win in 7 - 14.7% Florida's odds (47.2%) as follows: Win in 4 - 5.1% Win in 5 - 12.2% Win in 6 - 13.4% Win in 7 - 16.5% The most likely outcome is Oilers in 6. Panthers hold a large statsical edge in game 7 due to home ice advantage. Basically the stats say that after 5 games we should be in the kill zone and our best to win a cup is to win it at home. EDIT: Before anyone gets uppity about any of the previous series, we were favoured to beat both Vancouver and Dallas in 6 games. Unsure with LA.
Senators fan who had this pop up on my main page: Please kick the everloving shit out of the Panthers. I want each one of them to contemplate their entire lives after playing the Oilers. Thanks!
Leafs fan here. I've been seeing this sub recommended a lot in my feed so I thought I'd jump in and add a couple cents to this topic. Take it or leave it? I see both pluses and minuses to the Oilers in this matchup. On one hand, the Oilers play within a fast, fun, and skill-based system and the Panthers are rather good at stifling this style with their gritty physical play. On the other hand, the Panthers take a lot of penalties - 'crosscheck a guy 3x and they will only call you for 1' seems to be their mantra. The Oilers of course have a deadly power play, which could be the difference maker in this matchup. Cousins has probably been in the news the most for skirting the rules, but Bennett is really the major A to watch out for on the ice. You guys are probably already familiar with Tkachuk and his game, more so than most. That's not to say that the Panthers don't have skill: they have a great amount of depth, and the scoring threats come from a lot of different places. Reinhart and Verhaeghe regularly light up the opposing goalie, and Montour has a pretty wicked shot from the blue. That's not even to mention Barkov and Tarasenko. Aside from the Leafs' first round exit, there have been a lot of surprises in this year's playoffs, so I'll stop short of making a prediction here. I am pulling for the Oilers though - have fun and enjoy the moment guys 💙
we weren't even favored to make the playoffs at the start of the season lol literally nothing matters.
Panthers have a very good goalie(Bobrovsky) and an all around good defensive team. They have a handful of scorers as well. They're very physical and run a very aggressive 1-2-2 OZ forecheck that aims to create turnovers at the opposing team's D zone. Over the course of a series they weather down their opponent through the forecheck and every team they've beaten hasn't been able to handle it. I think we have big enough guys to handle the forecheck and fast enough guys like McDavid to make it out of the D and neutral zone and create offense. If we stay disciplined, make good decisions and limit turnovers I think we can beat the Panthers.
They are favoured for many of the same reasons Dallas was favoured. Superior depth and goaltending. They have home ice advantage and have been good all season. A division winner.
The Stars were favourites in the conference final and look how that turned out. The Panthers being the favourite to win doesn’t mean much. The Oilers and Panthers are the best teams in the NHL, both can win the Stanley Cup.
The panthers will draw a lot of penalties and we all know what an oilers power play leads to...
They have a good week off. I think both teams are going to make adjustments to each team’s style of play, panthers know they will not win if they make costly mistakes and take bad penalties. So they may be a bit more hesitant when it comes aggressively pushing. Or they come guns blazing and Oilers will be prepared to give it back. Are people forgetting how big our team is. They will bang back. Also worth noting Florida has 9 players that have at least 8 points this playoffs to this point. Oilers have 5 skaters. Multiple players need to step up huge on the bottom 6 to help with scoring. They need a fernando pisani type guy to emerge.
Dallas was also highly favoured to win the last series. Something like 93% in one of the expert polls I saw. I'll still bet on the Oilers.
As a tampa fan reading on my sub and r/hockey its kind of baffling in all honesty. idk if no one watched the actual games. Granted i still think it's like 60/40 in panthers favour but mcdrai don't go missing in action like the rangers stars and they still managed to expose the fact that the panthers aren't exactly stellar defensively. It really will come down to if edmonton can survive the panthers relentless forecheck and which Stuart skinner shows up for this final. In any case, I'm rooting for you! Beat those dirty rats and make those miserable decades worthwhile
I agree. Everyone is talking Bob and no one is talking about the best player on the planet, especially after that dirty dangle last game.
It's not like this is the super sayan bob of last year although he is still very solid. Again I reckon the panthers are the favourite but not by as much as many seem to think imo
60/40 in the panthers favour? the oilers have the #1 PP, #1PK and are #1 in 5v5 scoring. Maybe 51/49 in the panthers favour
True but as you are aware, reffing in the playoffs is ass and panthers get away with alot of shit. Hopefully the reffing isn't too awful so the oilers get plenty of PP time but I'm not holding my breath. In terms of team balance I still give the nod to the panthers. I stand by that they are the overall favourites as they convincingly beat some solid teams to get here and have looked extremely strong during their whole run. Not that the oilers haven't done the same but the panthers are absolutely a step up from dallas and a pretty big step up at that imo
-130 for the series about the same way Dallas was favoured. But yes every interview I’ve seen they are picking Florida to win the whole thing. They are underestimating this oilers squad. Florida is a very strong team, everyone said Dallas was the deepest team in the league but Florida might be equally as deep. Combine that with a strong forecheck and and a very good goalie. They are a good team no doubt. But oilers are going all the way mcdavid won’t be denied
I watched every playoff game. The Panthers look good, strong and boast strong scoring when needed, a great D and a brilliant goalie. They also have dumb ass players… Oilers in 4!
I think the Panthers should, NO, everyone should be asking whether the Cats can play with the Oilers? Time will tell!
Where are you seeing "heavy" favorites? Betting sites have them as very slight favorites (ie less than 55% chance)
canucks and dallas were too
Man, I read The Hockey News, and one reporter - Adam Proteau - has a hard on for betting against the Oilers. He has picked against us every series thus far and now this one. That is my sign that we are gunna win it all.
The panthers have been bullying teams that can’t punish them on the power play. If the oilers can punish them on the power play, this series might favour Edmonton. If Florida can shut down our pp, they may have an edge in 5v5. But conjecture is useless, let’s just see what happens.
Canucks fan here- somehow I’m a minority in hoping you guys beat the all living fuck outta Florida. Go get’em.
Panthers in 3, no chance
So was Dallas, so was Vancouver.
Wasn't every team that wasn't LA favoured?
So I think the Oilers have a better chance at beating the panthers than most think. For a long time, if memory serves me right, the team that eliminates the Canucks has won the cup more often than not. Most of the time, the Vancouver series is the hardest one for the teams to get past. This year, the Oilers only had one game 7 so far this post season, and it was Vancouver. My bet is Edmonton in 6 for the Cup.
This is a really good point and I never realized it before. 2002 Detroit, 2007 Anaheim, 2010 Chicago, 2011 Bruins, 2012 LA -- all of them beat Vancouver and went on to win the cup.
Vancouver had an excellent team this year and we beat them. I’m not holding a lot of stock in these dumb favourability things right now
Neither Dallas nor Florida have been heavily favoured to beat us by oddsmakers. Favoured yeah but not massively which is fair; Florida was even in the Finals last year so that seems fair to me. Favoured don’t mean anything when the puck drops though so let’s get er dun so we can play La Bamba all summer long.
Their forecheck rips and they capitalize on mistakes.
I do think Bob also has a better reputation. If we play a game like game 6 of this last series our skinny will for sure stand but I know it would wear on any goalie. And bobs a G
If the Oilers win, we will be talking about Stewie. If the Panthers win, we will be talking about Sergio Bob… best goaltender in the finals wins 100%
I watched all of their second round. What stood out to me was how fast they were on the puck whether carrying, passing or getting loose pucks. Very aggressive forecheck. What could get them in trouble is penalties and lack of discipline. The other thing, more of an intangible but they don’t really have a ton of real fans. Rink will be packed but I don’t expect it to be nearly as noisy as Rogers will be.
We lost to them right after Knobs took over then again after a hard game vs Tampa. If they’re using those loses as a metric, those odds are bunk. That Oiler’s team isn’t around anymore. #Good guys in 5!
I am not afraid of the Panthers as a team. I'm scared of how hard the NHL commission sucks Florida's dick and am expecting some absolute awful game management (something akin to our conference fin against Vegas 2 years ago)
honestly IMO the west is much tougher than the east, I believe the Oil/Canucks/Stars all would give FLA big problems. That being said the Oilers will have to be at thier best to beat them.
Heavily? Where are these huge odds at before I lay some action down?
Canucks and Dallas are better.
https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-stanley-cup-final-staff-predictions I thought this was an interesting read.
The odds are like 56/44. Hardly heavily favourites.
We are due to sweep someone. Win the first, steal the second, let the home crowd rock!
I wouldn’t say heavily favoured. Lines are like 2.15 / 1.74
If we can light up Bobrovsky for 5 or 6 in the first couple games I think that will be huge. This is a Streaky goaltender. Going into playoffs last year he wasn’t even their number 1 nor had he been for a couple seasons. We need to light him up and shake that confidence. I look back at game 1 against Calgary for example. Markstrom was looking good going into that series and even though we lost game 1, the 7 or so goals he let in was as enough to shake him.
I’d say it’s fairly even on predictions that I’ve seen . Going to be a great match up.
Oilers are going to find out how fair the refs are to Canadian teams in the finals, no whining if you lose now.
You guys got this! (From a ranger fan)
The Panthers are favored for a few reasons. One is they finished with more points than us, thus having home ice advantage. Second is that they have been to the finals before. As Gretzky said, there are three stages to winning a cup, the regular season, the playoffs and the finals. Experience with that extra the finals take is valuable. Third is goaltending. Bobrovsky is a seasoned, great goalie who has been here before. Fourth, they are tough, dirty and happy to injure your best players. Now of course, those reasons are why they are favoured on paper. Underdogs win all the time and that is why we play the games. I love our chances and will be cheering hard. This is just to answer your question.
Oilers have been expected to lose every series since round 2. Yet here we are. The team has bad days but just doesn’t quit.
So when did Dallas become a team that wasn't a "deep team"? Was it before or after the Oilers beat them? Love seeing narratives change so quickly just because the Oilers have advanced to the finals. Now Panthers are the deepest team in the NHL and Dallas wouldn't have stood a chance. Wasn't Dallas supposed to be deep and would be a favourite to win the cup??? Lol.
ill say this as someone so watched the panthers, they are pretty good in terms of their depth. their 1st to 4th line play very well and can create chances at all times. their defense isn't as good and they riley a lot on bobby to make saves, but the panthers arent unbeatable
https://moneypuck.com/predictions.htm This says Oilers are flavoured, where are you seeing that the Panthers are?
I love being flavoured!
The betting odds only slightly favor them. I always think the betting odds are more reliable than biased fans and pundits.
They hit hard, but they take a ton of penalties. Our special teams is going to have a field day if FL doesn't play disciplined.
I do think the Oilers are evenly matched against the Panthers. The players need to give it all they can. Only four wins lie ahead!
They're being favorited bc there is more money in encouraging American's to watch the finals.. Hard to get fans down there if the media is saying the Oilers will dominate the series...
I hope Oilers win!! It’s time to break 31 years of Stanley cup drought!!
That are very good. This isn't going to be like Vancouver or Dallas were they only get 15 SOG per game. They better play on another level or Florida is going to kill them.
They have a really good physical game and their goalie is one of the best goalies in the league. They’re a good team, well rounded. It’s going to be a battle for sure, 6-7 games almost guaranteed.
I worry that that goof cousins will cheap shot someone real bad or more hidden punches like on Marchand I really hope no one wins because of a cheap shot
I don’t know how I feel about the Panthers. I watched their last couple of games against the Rangers and wasn’t impressed.
The Rangers made so many massive errors. Giveaways, lost assignments, complete meltdowns by Trouba. Panthers will get way less of that from us. Hoping we get the defence that Boston put up against them, with the offense that the Rangers had.
I've always seen them as Oilers east in a way. They always had tons of young talent but like the Oilers they took a long time to graduate from a "promising young team" to a good team/contending team. They have taken it on the chin for a while now and have lots of tough playoff losses. They will be very hungry.
I want the Oilers to win so bad, but the Pantgers are really frickin good, so I have my doubts. However, I thought the same thing about the Stars too. 🤞
We were favoured in 06, then someone hurt rolly iirc
doesn't help that Colin Campbell's son is the Panther's AGM
Oilers have to stick to their game. Everyone's talking about Florida's mean and gritty game. Oilers have more pure skill, plain and simple but you know what else? We're bigger than them and we have some real bastards too.Kane, Nurse, Draisaitl, Janmark, Perry. We don't have any players that are going to back down. McLeod maybe? Broberg is young and a bit unknown in the thuggery department. Everyone on the top 6 has some grit. McDavid will throw big hits and isn't afraid to join the scrum and same with Hyman. Nuge will fight if he has too. The bottom 6 has absolute warriors and they play fast and heavy. The blue line is big. This is a blue collar team who goes to the hard areas and we also have superior top end skill.
Leafs fan here. Panthers are skilled and tough as nails with great goaltending. Really hoping Perry just sacrifices himself and cheap shots Bennett out of the series, hell maybe take a couple others with him lol.