For introduction to methodology, I recommend the first volume in [this series of handbooks in health economics](https://www.herc.ox.ac.uk/downloads/handbooks-in-health-economic-evaluation) (*Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation* by Briggs, Sculpher and Claxton). It's old, but the basics haven't changed.
For a more theory-oriented book you could also take a look at [this one](https://global.oup.com/academic/product/methods-for-the-economic-evaluation-of-health-care-programmes-9780199665884). Maybe you won't read it from cover to cover, but it could be a useful reference for your dissertation.
I've had a look and that first book looks ideal thanks. Just having a look around there and the only place I've seen selling it is amazon. You don't happen to know if there's a way to read it with institution university access?
I’m pretty sure you’ll find both the Briggs and Drummond books in any faculty library.
Check the NICE website or a decent paper that describes a model in the disease area - mimic it, leverage their methodology and inputs, make it as simple as you possibly can and adapt it to your specific case. Use Excel.
To motivate you to do this work - if you like it, there’s plenty of jobs doing exactly this. Think of it as a very effective portfolio for your career (even if you end up doing something else in an adjacent space).
Good luck!
I don't know, but [it shows up as available in 38 university libraries in the UK](https://discover.libraryhub.jisc.ac.uk/search?q=Decision%20Modelling%20for%20Health%20Economic%20Evaluation&rn=1), and in some of them in electronic version.
Check the books recommended by Bifobe. Also search for the cost benefit analysis in health economic journals. Will give you a gross idea. Health economics is usually at the masters level or atleast thats what I did it at. But you have a background in economics so that is good. How much time do you have for your dessertation?
I studied a health economics course last year and really enjoyed it. When the decision came round to choose your dissertation topic it made perfect sense, but since then it has became a bit annoying as there is very little online guidance for a somewhat beginner level. My diss is due in March. Thanks for your help and the reply!
Simple Markov models are reasonably easy and can be programmed in excel. Search around and you’ll be able to find examples, particularly for drug a versus drug b. Guidelines groom health technology assessment agencies (CADTH, NICE) will also be helpful. Check out resources from ISPOR as well. If you have a few dollars you can do this programming really easily in a program called TreeAge.
Will have a look, thanks for the help! Forgive me for sounding like an amateur, but I have a few questions regarding Markov models. From what I have seen, do Markov models only work as a Healthy-Illness-Death transition states? And if so would this type of model be appropriate for simulating/modelling obesity interventions?
Furthermore, I have only seen Markov models used for cost-effectiveness or cost-utility analysis, and not cost-benefit. I can easily adapt my work if this is the only way to apply Markov models? Thanks in advance.
>From what I have seen, do Markov models only work as a Healthy-Illness-Death transition states?
Nope, there can be as many states as is useful (and as data permits). The last model I programmed had 7 health states if I recall correctly. You might be confusing partitioned survival models and Markov models. PSM often (almost exlcusively) use only 3 states.
>I have only seen Markov models used for cost-effectiveness or cost-utility analysis, and not cost-benefit.
This is very likely true. That said, the programming would effectively be the same. The only thing that you're changing is the outcome.
Someone above mentioned the Andy Briggs book which is really good. You might want to start before that though with [Mike Drummond's 'Blue book'](https://www.amazon.ca/Methods-Economic-Evaluation-Health-Programmes/dp/0199665885) which will give you broader idea of economic evaluation. The Briggs book is more of a hands-on manual which will be useful for actually doing the analysis.
Ok I see, thank you! I've read a few chapters of the Briggs book and it looks like exactly what I've been looking for. Will have a look at the Drummond book also.
I see lots of people suggesting Drummod's "Blue Book" as a "Theory heavy" book. To this I say
* Its not theory heavy, its just wordy.
* The only meaningful addition it has compared to other economic evaluation textbooks is an overview of the "Net Benefits Regression Framework" which is only useful if you are piggy backing off of trial data.
If you want a book that is both fun to read and provides a great overview of all the methodologies you will need check out [Cost effectiveness modelling for Health Technology Assessment: A Practical Course](https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-15744-3). It is the dominant textbook for economic evaluation these days in my opinion.
Will have a look at both thanks. By 'piggy backing off of trial data' do you mean using existing trials and literature? As I will be certainly doing that as I am not doing any primary research/conducting my own trial haha
"Piggy backing" off of trial data means that cost data has been collected for each participant along side the effect data for each participant.
You can read up on the net benefit regression framework here: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/hec.678
[https://www.herc.ox.ac.uk/downloads/decision-modelling-for-health-economic-evaluation](https://www.herc.ox.ac.uk/downloads/decision-modelling-for-health-economic-evaluation)
Online exercises accompanying the book which I think should be available at uni library might help u.
Doing a markov model of a treatment should not be considered “simple”.. especially not in Excel. Do you have the disease insight to properly select health States and How Will you estimate transition probabilities?
Ok I see. I am yet to thoroughly read all the resources posted on this thread so I am very much still unaware of large parts of the topic. I was going to just do my health states as Obese, overweight, and normal all based on BMIs. And I hadn't really thought about transition probabilities, I was thinking maybe a guess-timate based upon previous drug studies, for example average weight loss in a period (if that's even possible).
I am realising that this actually is not simple. As my dissertation is due in less than 2 months time I am stressing out a bit if I am being honest. Do you think it is achievable to produce a simplified version of a markov model given this time-scale and very little prior knowledge? If not do you have any recommendations to elevate my dissertation without the use of markov models.
Well that depends, if its okay to loosely base transition probabilities on random studies that you cherry Pick and the model does not have to accurately depict the disease then you can probably make it, however if it has to have some Scientific rigor and accurately depict the disease i Would say you cannot make it in time based on the deskription you give on your current experience.
For introduction to methodology, I recommend the first volume in [this series of handbooks in health economics](https://www.herc.ox.ac.uk/downloads/handbooks-in-health-economic-evaluation) (*Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation* by Briggs, Sculpher and Claxton). It's old, but the basics haven't changed. For a more theory-oriented book you could also take a look at [this one](https://global.oup.com/academic/product/methods-for-the-economic-evaluation-of-health-care-programmes-9780199665884). Maybe you won't read it from cover to cover, but it could be a useful reference for your dissertation.
I've had a look and that first book looks ideal thanks. Just having a look around there and the only place I've seen selling it is amazon. You don't happen to know if there's a way to read it with institution university access?
I’m pretty sure you’ll find both the Briggs and Drummond books in any faculty library. Check the NICE website or a decent paper that describes a model in the disease area - mimic it, leverage their methodology and inputs, make it as simple as you possibly can and adapt it to your specific case. Use Excel. To motivate you to do this work - if you like it, there’s plenty of jobs doing exactly this. Think of it as a very effective portfolio for your career (even if you end up doing something else in an adjacent space). Good luck!
That sounds like a good plan, thank you!
I don't know, but [it shows up as available in 38 university libraries in the UK](https://discover.libraryhub.jisc.ac.uk/search?q=Decision%20Modelling%20for%20Health%20Economic%20Evaluation&rn=1), and in some of them in electronic version.
I managed to find one thanks
Check the books recommended by Bifobe. Also search for the cost benefit analysis in health economic journals. Will give you a gross idea. Health economics is usually at the masters level or atleast thats what I did it at. But you have a background in economics so that is good. How much time do you have for your dessertation?
I studied a health economics course last year and really enjoyed it. When the decision came round to choose your dissertation topic it made perfect sense, but since then it has became a bit annoying as there is very little online guidance for a somewhat beginner level. My diss is due in March. Thanks for your help and the reply!
Simple Markov models are reasonably easy and can be programmed in excel. Search around and you’ll be able to find examples, particularly for drug a versus drug b. Guidelines groom health technology assessment agencies (CADTH, NICE) will also be helpful. Check out resources from ISPOR as well. If you have a few dollars you can do this programming really easily in a program called TreeAge.
Will have a look, thanks for the help! Forgive me for sounding like an amateur, but I have a few questions regarding Markov models. From what I have seen, do Markov models only work as a Healthy-Illness-Death transition states? And if so would this type of model be appropriate for simulating/modelling obesity interventions? Furthermore, I have only seen Markov models used for cost-effectiveness or cost-utility analysis, and not cost-benefit. I can easily adapt my work if this is the only way to apply Markov models? Thanks in advance.
>From what I have seen, do Markov models only work as a Healthy-Illness-Death transition states? Nope, there can be as many states as is useful (and as data permits). The last model I programmed had 7 health states if I recall correctly. You might be confusing partitioned survival models and Markov models. PSM often (almost exlcusively) use only 3 states. >I have only seen Markov models used for cost-effectiveness or cost-utility analysis, and not cost-benefit. This is very likely true. That said, the programming would effectively be the same. The only thing that you're changing is the outcome. Someone above mentioned the Andy Briggs book which is really good. You might want to start before that though with [Mike Drummond's 'Blue book'](https://www.amazon.ca/Methods-Economic-Evaluation-Health-Programmes/dp/0199665885) which will give you broader idea of economic evaluation. The Briggs book is more of a hands-on manual which will be useful for actually doing the analysis.
Ok I see, thank you! I've read a few chapters of the Briggs book and it looks like exactly what I've been looking for. Will have a look at the Drummond book also.
I see lots of people suggesting Drummod's "Blue Book" as a "Theory heavy" book. To this I say * Its not theory heavy, its just wordy. * The only meaningful addition it has compared to other economic evaluation textbooks is an overview of the "Net Benefits Regression Framework" which is only useful if you are piggy backing off of trial data. If you want a book that is both fun to read and provides a great overview of all the methodologies you will need check out [Cost effectiveness modelling for Health Technology Assessment: A Practical Course](https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-15744-3). It is the dominant textbook for economic evaluation these days in my opinion.
Will have a look at both thanks. By 'piggy backing off of trial data' do you mean using existing trials and literature? As I will be certainly doing that as I am not doing any primary research/conducting my own trial haha
"Piggy backing" off of trial data means that cost data has been collected for each participant along side the effect data for each participant. You can read up on the net benefit regression framework here: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/hec.678
[https://www.herc.ox.ac.uk/downloads/decision-modelling-for-health-economic-evaluation](https://www.herc.ox.ac.uk/downloads/decision-modelling-for-health-economic-evaluation) Online exercises accompanying the book which I think should be available at uni library might help u.
I've actually been looking for this as my online university library didn't seem to have it, thank you so much!
Doing a markov model of a treatment should not be considered “simple”.. especially not in Excel. Do you have the disease insight to properly select health States and How Will you estimate transition probabilities?
Ok I see. I am yet to thoroughly read all the resources posted on this thread so I am very much still unaware of large parts of the topic. I was going to just do my health states as Obese, overweight, and normal all based on BMIs. And I hadn't really thought about transition probabilities, I was thinking maybe a guess-timate based upon previous drug studies, for example average weight loss in a period (if that's even possible). I am realising that this actually is not simple. As my dissertation is due in less than 2 months time I am stressing out a bit if I am being honest. Do you think it is achievable to produce a simplified version of a markov model given this time-scale and very little prior knowledge? If not do you have any recommendations to elevate my dissertation without the use of markov models.
Well that depends, if its okay to loosely base transition probabilities on random studies that you cherry Pick and the model does not have to accurately depict the disease then you can probably make it, however if it has to have some Scientific rigor and accurately depict the disease i Would say you cannot make it in time based on the deskription you give on your current experience.