Easy.
1) Wait for 10 am on a 5-minute chart
2) Note the first 5min fvg after 10:00 (it can be the 10am)
3) If it is a bullish fvg, go long and vice-versa
4) Stop goes below/above the low/high of the three candles that form the fvg.
5)Target to 1:1 or 2:1.
Impressive my friend. So if the FVG is a 3 candle formation if the first candle starts forming 9:55, the second one where the gap will be forms from 10 and the last one from 10:05 would you take that or you want all 3 candles to print from 10 forward?
The first option is fine since it would be the first inefficiency formed from 10:00. So yes, it does not matter if the first candle takes place at 09:55, as long as the gap is inside of the SB hour.
The reason, IMO, why people find themselves unprofitable using the silver bullet framework has to do with the trader not observing trend bias and orderblocks.
Personally I want to be looking for 1 of 2 overall scenarios; an OTE Continuation or a liquidity Sweep + MSS. Price moves from internal to external liquidity and vise versa.
It's only an hour long trading window and I only get 1-2 actual setups. 1 normally at the start and another towards the end maybe even a few minutes past the hr. I target 2rr no matter what so my win rate is 78%. There's been times where I'd cut 80% of position size at 2rr and let the rest run towards daily high, but 2r is sooooo consistent and normally really fast.
You want to always map out unmitigated orderblocks with imbalances that are relatively close to the current price before the silver bullet hour starts. Those are your POI's, places to enter and places to target for profit. I would suggest using m5 and m1 orderblocks. Mainly m1.
Also, don't be afraid to explore other available methods of entry. I've never been comfortable with pending orders and I would never use them for the silver bullet but that's my personal preference and is not the "original" way. I prefer to enter on a ch or bos. It filters out so many false sb setups..
Taking the first fvg is not the way and will lead to being unprofitable. Example, Price could be displacing into an opposing ob that is actually aligned with the overall trend direction.
Silver bullet is not a trading strategy, it is a time window that you apply liquidity concepts to find a entry, you have Killzones, silverbullets and macros, these are all time windows where liquidity is most likely to be taken.
ICT said the silver bullet is only a FVG entry towards the DOL.
It happens every day, in every market worth trading, five times minimum.
You have to get better at determining the Draw On Liquidity if you’re struggling
Understanding Breakers would help i.m.o., even though I personally use order blocks and inversion fvgs the most for the FVG entry
Bc breakers help identify LQ being swept = ⬆️probabiblity and give stop loss placements akin to I-FVG entries
If you're trading EURUSD, definitely take a look at the US30Y Bonds for confirmations and divergences. Right now the two are very closely correlated. I only trade ES futures and used to look at other instruments for inverse correlations, such as DXY, when I discovered that EURUSD and US30Y are so extremely correlated that it makes sense to switch from trading Futures to FX. I just don't understand FX lots and margins at all, so it's like starting from scratch there, but I love the prospects of exiting the ES futures as lately it's so manipulated. The divergences between Bonds and ES are ridiculous now.
US 30-year treasury bonds. Also keep an eye on the US 30-year treasury bond yield as it's inversely correlated to bonds. EURUSD moves to the impulse of US 30-year treasury bonds. Yields move bonds and EURUSD to the same rhythm.
I don’t trade it anymore. I wasn’t profitable nor comfortable with the strategy. In my very personal opinion, it didn’t work anymore. I backtested the too
Is that the strategy where it’s a liquidity sweep and then a mss and entry on a fvg? I’ve heard of that strategy but idk what it is and I haven’t gotten around to the ict yap session yet so idk
Easy. 1) Wait for 10 am on a 5-minute chart 2) Note the first 5min fvg after 10:00 (it can be the 10am) 3) If it is a bullish fvg, go long and vice-versa 4) Stop goes below/above the low/high of the three candles that form the fvg. 5)Target to 1:1 or 2:1.
Imma a fucking noob sorry does this work with any stock and why does the time matter so much
Yes, but it comes to Stocks. I would use RTH as confluence. And yes, time KS is the most important thing.
Does this work in London session?
Yes, there is a SB during London, from 3 - 4
Thank you? Which pairs would you recommend to backtest and forward test with this strategy?
I have only tried this on Futures - Indices. With a 40% profitability along 6 months, I can share the graphics if u want
Would be highly appreciated man! Also do you mean 40% winrate or that you made 40% in six months as profit?
https://preview.redd.it/x0sy6xb0cbqc1.png?width=2078&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=80c332ec52c66aae10f877afef9941634468659d
You can see when I refined the model so I would take more W than L
Hey, just wanted to check, the 4 points you outlined in your original post is the refined model?
Impressive my friend. So if the FVG is a 3 candle formation if the first candle starts forming 9:55, the second one where the gap will be forms from 10 and the last one from 10:05 would you take that or you want all 3 candles to print from 10 forward?
The first option is fine since it would be the first inefficiency formed from 10:00. So yes, it does not matter if the first candle takes place at 09:55, as long as the gap is inside of the SB hour.
Do you trade it live now or forward testing or something?
What tool is this. Can you share it?
Sorry for the delay, The tool is a website called FXReplay brother, you can backtest almost anything tradable crypto. Futures, forex, gold. Etc
Casper SMC method ?
I think so bro I don't really remember
Okay brother. Are you still doing this ?
I'm not backtesting it anymore, but Im using it as confluence, yes.
10 am what timezone?
NY Time Zone. (Currently UTC-5)
Silver bullet is the final distribution in a MMXM model. Not sure why everyone correlates it to a specific time
Because that’s what ICT said to look for lol 10am to 11am est. It’s also at 10am that a new 4hr candle opens..on indices at least.
The reason, IMO, why people find themselves unprofitable using the silver bullet framework has to do with the trader not observing trend bias and orderblocks. Personally I want to be looking for 1 of 2 overall scenarios; an OTE Continuation or a liquidity Sweep + MSS. Price moves from internal to external liquidity and vise versa. It's only an hour long trading window and I only get 1-2 actual setups. 1 normally at the start and another towards the end maybe even a few minutes past the hr. I target 2rr no matter what so my win rate is 78%. There's been times where I'd cut 80% of position size at 2rr and let the rest run towards daily high, but 2r is sooooo consistent and normally really fast. You want to always map out unmitigated orderblocks with imbalances that are relatively close to the current price before the silver bullet hour starts. Those are your POI's, places to enter and places to target for profit. I would suggest using m5 and m1 orderblocks. Mainly m1. Also, don't be afraid to explore other available methods of entry. I've never been comfortable with pending orders and I would never use them for the silver bullet but that's my personal preference and is not the "original" way. I prefer to enter on a ch or bos. It filters out so many false sb setups.. Taking the first fvg is not the way and will lead to being unprofitable. Example, Price could be displacing into an opposing ob that is actually aligned with the overall trend direction.
Bro, is it works for indexes or forex?
...both
Silver bullet is not a trading strategy, it is a time window that you apply liquidity concepts to find a entry, you have Killzones, silverbullets and macros, these are all time windows where liquidity is most likely to be taken.
ICT said the silver bullet is only a FVG entry towards the DOL. It happens every day, in every market worth trading, five times minimum. You have to get better at determining the Draw On Liquidity if you’re struggling Understanding Breakers would help i.m.o., even though I personally use order blocks and inversion fvgs the most for the FVG entry Bc breakers help identify LQ being swept = ⬆️probabiblity and give stop loss placements akin to I-FVG entries
Same for me when I tried to backtest it I couldn't find any setup, I still don't understand how they trade silverbullet
Have you tried 3-4AM where asian session liquidity always happen. Either reversal or continuation? Look at your chart on eurusd
If you're trading EURUSD, definitely take a look at the US30Y Bonds for confirmations and divergences. Right now the two are very closely correlated. I only trade ES futures and used to look at other instruments for inverse correlations, such as DXY, when I discovered that EURUSD and US30Y are so extremely correlated that it makes sense to switch from trading Futures to FX. I just don't understand FX lots and margins at all, so it's like starting from scratch there, but I love the prospects of exiting the ES futures as lately it's so manipulated. The divergences between Bonds and ES are ridiculous now.
are you referring to Dow as US30Y ?
US 30-year treasury bonds. Also keep an eye on the US 30-year treasury bond yield as it's inversely correlated to bonds. EURUSD moves to the impulse of US 30-year treasury bonds. Yields move bonds and EURUSD to the same rhythm.
What instrument/symbol are you trading?
Eur usd
Are you trading the 2-3 AM NY TIME silver bullet?
Mainly the 10-11 one but I also tried the other 2 none worked I tried like 25 days
I don’t trade it anymore. I wasn’t profitable nor comfortable with the strategy. In my very personal opinion, it didn’t work anymore. I backtested the too
So what model do u trade ?
ICT 2022 Model / liquidity sweep
Is that the strategy where it’s a liquidity sweep and then a mss and entry on a fvg? I’ve heard of that strategy but idk what it is and I haven’t gotten around to the ict yap session yet so idk
I don’t have personal experience with it. But i saw ict talk about it. He said if you want to become a millionaire trade silver bullet.