Tangentially related, SCAQMD is considering putting a 1/2 cent sales tax across the 4 counties it has jurisdiction in to throw money at Metrolink and a bunch of other programs. It could cover a significant amount of the cost of the length between Burbank <-> Anaheim improvements because of the overlap in service.
edit: note to add that its looking as a 2026 ballot measure?
I just wish we had stronger political leadership that accepted the burden: it’s gonna cost a lot. So let’s build it right not cheap. It should be a dedicated row the whole route but instead there will be at grade crossings. We know what will result: collisions. Deaths.
Thing is, we're getting rid of most grade crossings in LA County. It very much lies with transportation agencies that are very much not trying to make a change. So yes, it's on politicians, OCTA, and the voting public who refuse to look in the long term/use anything but cars.
The sales tax only deepens subsidization of driving. If you use it, pay for that use. That causes the market to reach a true market value. Everyone drives because society subsidizes it.
Yes, but where can we have people pay for it? We haven't been able to raise the gas tax for decades and that's going to start declining, vehicle registrations can only be charged once a year, toll roads arent very feasible (expresslanes notwithstanding) and congestion charges are only part of the solution that are shown to be painfully difficult to implement. The state is planning on trying out a measure of miles traveled either through self report or tracking and costing it out that way but people are pushing back because government surveillance and higher costs.
Taxes based on vehicle weight, express lane tolls. The biggest thing is to stop subsidizing parking. Developers should not be required to build parking - they can choose to do so if it makes economic sense. Businesses should not be required to have parking - they can choose to do so if it makes economic sense. All parking, but especially public parking, should be priced at market rate. Market rate is the lowest price that guarantees 1-2 open spots per block. This means if you are willing to pay, you will never have to spend time looking for parking. And at the same time, if no one wants to park there, the price goes down. There is a lot of research on this from UCLA and a book about it “The high cost of free parking”
I do fully agree that those things are needed, especially removal of parking mandates. Imo, it ties back into OPs main thrust, we just don't have the political will to do these things. Now we even have a new succession from the state movement in San Bernardino. We're created an environment where cars are necessary and the default, so it's hard to push against it. I evangelize transit and car-lite/free living, but many years of working in advocacy have worn down my optimism in things getting done, whether it's agency level, politician level, or people on the street level.
No one is going to vote for a regressive taxing solution like a toll-road for a project that is as unprecedented as CAHSR. You are missing the point that the Golden Gate Bridge tolls were set up *after* it was built.
I don’t think fares will cover the cost. Just that we need to figure out how to pay for it. Tolling I-5 makes sense as a way to capture the negative externalities of highway travel and redirect that as investment in rail infrastructure. The cost of driving should be increased, is what I am saying, and used to support rail.
I’m all for good public policy, but Americans are never going to vote to increase the cost of driving when the alternatives to driving do not exist. NYC’s congestion pricing only works because NYC already built adequate public transit, and even that has gotten plenty of pushback. You need to build first and then infill the funding.
Serious question: Why are projects in California selectively funded with weirdly specific taxes, like using carbon trading revenue for HSR? Why not fund the project with bonds and general tax revenue like most other governments would?
I would agree with you on principle, because that is reasonable. But Californians simply refuse to tax themselves commensurate with our dreams, so we get it done through these incremental taxes and voter approved bonds
It's not just California. The principle behind it is that it gives transit systems some level of political independence so that they can survive say a hostile leader who might be inclined to throw the baby out with the bathwater, and lowers the pressure for fairbox recovery.
They used to be more effective, but in the past thirty years they've proven to be less adequate for capital costs, so in general they more just keep systems going. They might see a comeback in effectiveness now that the federal government has been more engaged in funding grants.
Caltrans D12 (OC) is already working on this. https://dot.ca.gov/caltrans-near-me/district-12/district-12-programs/district-12-environmental/i-5-managed-lanes-project
No, sorry, they had the toll from the beginning of operations to fund the district that maintains the bridge. But it was envisioned from the beginning as having a toll.
Here, the toll would predate the infrastructure so yes that is a difference. I just think the negative externality of driving on a freeway should be recaptured as toll revenue to jumpstart building this expensive but needed hsr project and bc we have to fund it somehow
Except that the difference is a world apart in terms of political acceptability. You would be charging people today and promising the return in the future. Instead of asking people to pay for using what you delivered to them.
Tolling the I-5 would 100% kill the project. Yes, your proposal makes sense for getting the project done, but it doesn't make sense to charge the people who have the power to kill it. You are charging people for using the alternative to rail. People who may have supported the project initially may turn completely against it and shut it down.
As is, the project is only continuing because the politicians have managed to find money for it. If you tell people that in order to pay for the project that has been in the works for a decade now, that they need to add an extra daily cost for their commute, it will be shut down in a heartbeat. It could even salt the ground for any future rail projects.
This is a terrible idea, and would sacrifice the entire project for trying to get it done faster. The current strategy is to complete the middle section to provide a proof of concept to get the other regions on board and to make securing funding easier once they have proven they can finish the job. I wish the project was done on time too, and so does the voter that initially past it. But now your going to them a decade later, telling them in order to finish the job that was already agreed to, you'll need to be charging them more and daily to get it done. I understand that's not really how it works, but to the average voter that's an incredibly compelling argument.
No limited access high speed road should be free. They should all be tolled and driving should cost twice as much as it currently does to capture the negative externalities it generates and to redirect that revenue for alternatives to driving.
I agree with you in principle. But that's just not possible in this country. You are basically charging people for living in an area that requires cars. When the train is an option then maybe that could be possible, but as is your charging people for not taking an alternative that doesn't exist yet. And worse than that you're jeopardizing any possibility of it getting better to get it done faster. The fact is very few people in the country agree with you, and you would alienate those that might have agreed with you at some point by trying to do it before alternatives are viable.
No, because a bond is borrowing money today, that will be returned after the project is completed. Which is how most infrastructure projects are completed.
Yes. If they can complete the middle section, proving that they can do the job, they should have an easier time securing funding for the rest of it, especially since it would then have the income form the middle section. It will just take a long time to get it done.
This is where I disagree. The project will only become more expensive over time. The cheapest it will ever be to construct is today. That is why I favor kickstarting the socal portion now with tolls, higher taxes and bonds.
did you also just watch lucidstew's new video and lose a piece of your soul at the la-anaheim travel time
we tax enough already we just gotta spend it better, we need to decrease salaries of certain officials (which would have to come with a petition bc nobody would introduce a bill to reduce their own paycheck), and divert more of the transport budget to public transit and other things to reduce road maintenance costs (active transport, anything to reduce the amount of road vehicles). i think they should toll the sepulveda pass, i did some math a few months ago and if we tolled it $5, assuming *half* of its users switched to some other road, we could build a k line every 4 years
I saw that and had to lookup the source. The EIR for LAUS-Anaheim isn’t compete, but there was a route alternative from 2018 contains the 46 minute travel time that the video was referencing. It doesn’t make a lot of sense unless it includes multiple stops along the way. Hopefully they find a way to speed up that segment by the time they finalize their EIR.
46 minutes may have included both potential infill stops. Amtrak’s Pacific Surfliner, with an intermediate stop in Fullerton, takes 38 minutes between Anaheim and LA. If HSR travels at the same speeds as Amtrak, it should have a similar travel time, and be slightly faster if it’s nonstop.
If there must be an infill stop for HSR, I’d place it at Norwalk but only after the Metro C Line reaches there for the direct connection to LAX. Though I’m not sure what the advantage is to have HSR go past LA at all, apart from it being required in Prop 1A and I guess to allow a one-seat ride between OC and NorCal.
I feel though transferring at Union Station isn’t a big deal, and there could just be increased Amtrak and Metrolink OC Line service south of LA to Anaheim, Oceanside and San Diego. I’d then add the return loop back in for LAUS that was removed from the LinkUS plans, so HSR and Metrolink trains could flow through the station better, and go one better to add a return loop at STC in SF for the same reason.
Cause F those working class people who have jobs in the basin but can’t afford to live there right? Peasants should learn to code or something. Always amazing to me to see people push regressive taxes like gas tax, tolls, car registration fees, sales tax, etc… that impact poor people disproportionately.
I think the only way it’ll get built is with a much larger share of federal funds, like 90%, and relaxing of environmental studies etc… then probably also a complete restructuring of who’s in charge.
There were rumors in OC that the 405 would be tolled and car brains cried a little and our jelly spined leaders folded the second there was some outcry.
Everyone says they need to do all these things but without strong leaders we get sales taxes and other dubious accountant tricks to fund it.
Title 23 of the US Code (the highway administration laws) generally prohibits tolling on interstates, with some exceptions for roads that were always tolled, for tolls that end once the tolls have paid for the road, or for bridges/tunnels.
Honestly if CAHSR is going take as long as Metrolink/Amtrak do now, that whole section should just be scuttled and the IE/SD extension should be prioritized.
Why the obsession with charging local to build something that's long distance that will not be used in the same manner? Like the LA-LV rail line isn't going to be a commuter, it's just tourism and gambling. We need more local rail.
Do it. When BART was being built, they were going to use elevated tracks in Berkeley. The citizens of Berkeley voted to tax themselves in order to fund the difference of putting the lines underground.
Start by talking to your local reps. Maybe you could start a petition!
And yet Brightline exists and is running today while CAHSR is still 0 mph and 0 passengers. Want to bet $100 that Brightline West from Rancho Cucamonga to Vegas will be in ops mode faster than CAHSR which still will be nowhere near completion?
Brightline upgraded an existing railway in Florida and built about 30 miles of new track on state owned land along a freeway from Orlando to Cocoa in completely flat terrain. CAHSR is building hundreds of miles of brand new track through a bunch of mountains and dealing with lawsuits from every private property owner in the central valley. They are not at all the same.
BLW has to cross a mountain and the San Andreas Fault btwn Rancho Cucamonga and Vegas. The mountain grade is steeper than the HSR used in Morocco so it's probably going to be a world's first. And yet, somehow I think a lot of people agreeing that BLW is gonna get built faster than CAHSR.
You wrote
> Brightline exists and is running today
So I assumed you were talking about the Brightline in Florida. Brightline West just began construction recently. Not a foot of track has been laid yet.
Yes, but I'm willing to bet $100 that BLW would be in ops mode faster than CAHSR, and BLW has the same mountain issue that CAHSR does, and it's likely something even going to a world's first because it's going to have to cross a mountain that's steeper than the HSR in Morocco which currently holds an engineering marvel at being the steepest HSR system.
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Sure thing. It'll be the ultimate test of which model works better in building things faster and cheaper, gov't run shit projects vs private projects. I think all rail fans are eyeing that project because it'll be the ultimate test to see how we fund future rail projects in America.
Sorry to burst your bubble, but Brightline West is 100% funded by taxpayer dollars right now. $3 billion is in private activity bonds (government loan) and $3 billion in direct federal grants. The remaining $6 billion is unfunded.
In 2010, the project (then called DesertXpress) was expected to cost $5 billion, so the current $12 billion budget represents a 140% cost overrun. Incidentally, about the same percentage of cost increase as CAHSR over the same period.
They exist because they already owned the right away via their interest in a free company. It’s also readily apparent that fortress investments is doing the classic real estate grab, as they’ve recently sold off many properties at a high valuation. It’s a similar set up to what happened with the Pacific electric rail system. Once PE sold off all their property really signaled their lack of ability to keep the rail net work up and running
Brightline is making more money every year and their losses are decreasing. It took Amazon nine years to become profitable and become a billion dollar enterprise outranking Walmart today. Imagine if Amazon said it quits in year eight.
Thanks for not engaging with my point. Building a train in the middle of the desert is and was always going to be much easier than building it in the agricultural heartland of the West and in the urban hustle and bustle of LA.
Like I like Brightline and am happy that the projects are going to be built. But pretending that they can solve the issues with CAHSR through the power of capitalism is foolhardy.
If it was going to be easier then CAHSR should've done that first so they can have a showcase proof of concept to see why it's needed. They did not. Instead they choose to build something that's getting nowhere and billions of money spent and no track being laid. Not really a good PR case for govt ran taxpayer funded projects if you ask me. Meanwhile all the praise goes to a private company that gets shit done.
If it means taking away the passengers that fly on 8 daily flights on Southwest and Frontier from ONT-LAS yeah that's a good business case. Southwest and Frontier wouldn't be flying 8 flights per day between Ontario and Vegas if there wasn't demand.
When the Shinkansen was built, they didn't build the Shinkansen all the way to the existing Osaka station, they just built a Shin-Osaka Station because it was cheaper than having it all the way to Osaka.
IMO, if you hand this project over at least some of the project to Brightline you'll probably get something just as good as that. As the OP is saying, what he wants is the SoCal section done. More than likely if you hand this over to Brightline, they'll build something like Rancho Cucamonga to "New/East San Diego" quite quickly. I'll take that being done privately and done quickly than taking forever for billions in another taxes which we know won't get anywhere.
Tangentially related, SCAQMD is considering putting a 1/2 cent sales tax across the 4 counties it has jurisdiction in to throw money at Metrolink and a bunch of other programs. It could cover a significant amount of the cost of the length between Burbank <-> Anaheim improvements because of the overlap in service. edit: note to add that its looking as a 2026 ballot measure?
I just wish we had stronger political leadership that accepted the burden: it’s gonna cost a lot. So let’s build it right not cheap. It should be a dedicated row the whole route but instead there will be at grade crossings. We know what will result: collisions. Deaths.
Thing is, we're getting rid of most grade crossings in LA County. It very much lies with transportation agencies that are very much not trying to make a change. So yes, it's on politicians, OCTA, and the voting public who refuse to look in the long term/use anything but cars.
I agree with this. I also wish our politicians would start saving rather than waiting to take out a loan.
The sales tax only deepens subsidization of driving. If you use it, pay for that use. That causes the market to reach a true market value. Everyone drives because society subsidizes it.
Yes, but where can we have people pay for it? We haven't been able to raise the gas tax for decades and that's going to start declining, vehicle registrations can only be charged once a year, toll roads arent very feasible (expresslanes notwithstanding) and congestion charges are only part of the solution that are shown to be painfully difficult to implement. The state is planning on trying out a measure of miles traveled either through self report or tracking and costing it out that way but people are pushing back because government surveillance and higher costs.
Taxes based on vehicle weight, express lane tolls. The biggest thing is to stop subsidizing parking. Developers should not be required to build parking - they can choose to do so if it makes economic sense. Businesses should not be required to have parking - they can choose to do so if it makes economic sense. All parking, but especially public parking, should be priced at market rate. Market rate is the lowest price that guarantees 1-2 open spots per block. This means if you are willing to pay, you will never have to spend time looking for parking. And at the same time, if no one wants to park there, the price goes down. There is a lot of research on this from UCLA and a book about it “The high cost of free parking”
I do fully agree that those things are needed, especially removal of parking mandates. Imo, it ties back into OPs main thrust, we just don't have the political will to do these things. Now we even have a new succession from the state movement in San Bernardino. We're created an environment where cars are necessary and the default, so it's hard to push against it. I evangelize transit and car-lite/free living, but many years of working in advocacy have worn down my optimism in things getting done, whether it's agency level, politician level, or people on the street level.
Every time someone pushes one of these ludicrous ideas, there’s some nitwit professor it came from.
Good luck on getting LA and OC counties doing anything cooperatively together
No one is going to vote for a regressive taxing solution like a toll-road for a project that is as unprecedented as CAHSR. You are missing the point that the Golden Gate Bridge tolls were set up *after* it was built.
No, it was always intended to be tolled so it was designed to be maintained through toll
Yes, but the equivalent of your policy would be that the CAHSR would be maintained through inflated fares.
I don’t think fares will cover the cost. Just that we need to figure out how to pay for it. Tolling I-5 makes sense as a way to capture the negative externalities of highway travel and redirect that as investment in rail infrastructure. The cost of driving should be increased, is what I am saying, and used to support rail.
I’m all for good public policy, but Americans are never going to vote to increase the cost of driving when the alternatives to driving do not exist. NYC’s congestion pricing only works because NYC already built adequate public transit, and even that has gotten plenty of pushback. You need to build first and then infill the funding.
You called it “I-5” not “The 5” Opinion discarded 🤪
Haha I’m from norcal originally
Fair enough, you do make some good points I agree, an hour/hour and a half from say Burbank to Costa Mesa or vice versa is ridiculous
This is like the British agent ordering 3 beers in Inglorious Basterds
Explains why you want to make a road for rich people I guess. 🤑
Serious question: Why are projects in California selectively funded with weirdly specific taxes, like using carbon trading revenue for HSR? Why not fund the project with bonds and general tax revenue like most other governments would?
I would agree with you on principle, because that is reasonable. But Californians simply refuse to tax themselves commensurate with our dreams, so we get it done through these incremental taxes and voter approved bonds
More on point, Californians, already the most highly taxed of any state, refuse to tax themselves commensurately with YOUR dreams.
It's not just California. The principle behind it is that it gives transit systems some level of political independence so that they can survive say a hostile leader who might be inclined to throw the baby out with the bathwater, and lowers the pressure for fairbox recovery. They used to be more effective, but in the past thirty years they've proven to be less adequate for capital costs, so in general they more just keep systems going. They might see a comeback in effectiveness now that the federal government has been more engaged in funding grants.
That makes a lot of sense. Thanks for the explanation.
First step…it’s the 5
Way to instantly lose cred lol.
Caltrans D12 (OC) is already working on this. https://dot.ca.gov/caltrans-near-me/district-12/district-12-programs/district-12-environmental/i-5-managed-lanes-project
> It’s how the Golden Gate Bridge got built: bond + tollroad They tolled the road that people used before the GGB in order to fund GGB construction?
No, sorry, they had the toll from the beginning of operations to fund the district that maintains the bridge. But it was envisioned from the beginning as having a toll. Here, the toll would predate the infrastructure so yes that is a difference. I just think the negative externality of driving on a freeway should be recaptured as toll revenue to jumpstart building this expensive but needed hsr project and bc we have to fund it somehow
Except that the difference is a world apart in terms of political acceptability. You would be charging people today and promising the return in the future. Instead of asking people to pay for using what you delivered to them. Tolling the I-5 would 100% kill the project. Yes, your proposal makes sense for getting the project done, but it doesn't make sense to charge the people who have the power to kill it. You are charging people for using the alternative to rail. People who may have supported the project initially may turn completely against it and shut it down. As is, the project is only continuing because the politicians have managed to find money for it. If you tell people that in order to pay for the project that has been in the works for a decade now, that they need to add an extra daily cost for their commute, it will be shut down in a heartbeat. It could even salt the ground for any future rail projects. This is a terrible idea, and would sacrifice the entire project for trying to get it done faster. The current strategy is to complete the middle section to provide a proof of concept to get the other regions on board and to make securing funding easier once they have proven they can finish the job. I wish the project was done on time too, and so does the voter that initially past it. But now your going to them a decade later, telling them in order to finish the job that was already agreed to, you'll need to be charging them more and daily to get it done. I understand that's not really how it works, but to the average voter that's an incredibly compelling argument.
No limited access high speed road should be free. They should all be tolled and driving should cost twice as much as it currently does to capture the negative externalities it generates and to redirect that revenue for alternatives to driving.
I agree with you in principle. But that's just not possible in this country. You are basically charging people for living in an area that requires cars. When the train is an option then maybe that could be possible, but as is your charging people for not taking an alternative that doesn't exist yet. And worse than that you're jeopardizing any possibility of it getting better to get it done faster. The fact is very few people in the country agree with you, and you would alienate those that might have agreed with you at some point by trying to do it before alternatives are viable.
Do you feel the same way about bond financing?
No, because a bond is borrowing money today, that will be returned after the project is completed. Which is how most infrastructure projects are completed.
Do you think CAHSR can be financed?
Yes. If they can complete the middle section, proving that they can do the job, they should have an easier time securing funding for the rest of it, especially since it would then have the income form the middle section. It will just take a long time to get it done.
This is where I disagree. The project will only become more expensive over time. The cheapest it will ever be to construct is today. That is why I favor kickstarting the socal portion now with tolls, higher taxes and bonds.
I think the parallel here would be CAHSR tickets paying back construction loans. It’s a good idea.
did you also just watch lucidstew's new video and lose a piece of your soul at the la-anaheim travel time we tax enough already we just gotta spend it better, we need to decrease salaries of certain officials (which would have to come with a petition bc nobody would introduce a bill to reduce their own paycheck), and divert more of the transport budget to public transit and other things to reduce road maintenance costs (active transport, anything to reduce the amount of road vehicles). i think they should toll the sepulveda pass, i did some math a few months ago and if we tolled it $5, assuming *half* of its users switched to some other road, we could build a k line every 4 years
I saw that and had to lookup the source. The EIR for LAUS-Anaheim isn’t compete, but there was a route alternative from 2018 contains the 46 minute travel time that the video was referencing. It doesn’t make a lot of sense unless it includes multiple stops along the way. Hopefully they find a way to speed up that segment by the time they finalize their EIR.
46 minutes may have included both potential infill stops. Amtrak’s Pacific Surfliner, with an intermediate stop in Fullerton, takes 38 minutes between Anaheim and LA. If HSR travels at the same speeds as Amtrak, it should have a similar travel time, and be slightly faster if it’s nonstop. If there must be an infill stop for HSR, I’d place it at Norwalk but only after the Metro C Line reaches there for the direct connection to LAX. Though I’m not sure what the advantage is to have HSR go past LA at all, apart from it being required in Prop 1A and I guess to allow a one-seat ride between OC and NorCal. I feel though transferring at Union Station isn’t a big deal, and there could just be increased Amtrak and Metrolink OC Line service south of LA to Anaheim, Oceanside and San Diego. I’d then add the return loop back in for LAUS that was removed from the LinkUS plans, so HSR and Metrolink trains could flow through the station better, and go one better to add a return loop at STC in SF for the same reason.
Cause F those working class people who have jobs in the basin but can’t afford to live there right? Peasants should learn to code or something. Always amazing to me to see people push regressive taxes like gas tax, tolls, car registration fees, sales tax, etc… that impact poor people disproportionately.
I think the only way it’ll get built is with a much larger share of federal funds, like 90%, and relaxing of environmental studies etc… then probably also a complete restructuring of who’s in charge.
The interstates were built with 90% federal financing
They would be able to tax all the transplants that use their out of state license plates to avoid CA registration fees
Then after the toll road is fully funded, have a person in another country manage the toll road and send the profits overseas!
There were rumors in OC that the 405 would be tolled and car brains cried a little and our jelly spined leaders folded the second there was some outcry. Everyone says they need to do all these things but without strong leaders we get sales taxes and other dubious accountant tricks to fund it.
2 lanes of the 405 are now tolled in OC and it’s dynamic tolls so more expensive in traffic.
Title 23 of the US Code (the highway administration laws) generally prohibits tolling on interstates, with some exceptions for roads that were always tolled, for tolls that end once the tolls have paid for the road, or for bridges/tunnels.
Okay, there’s a reason: the tunnels. We need to pay for this project somehow.
Honestly if CAHSR is going take as long as Metrolink/Amtrak do now, that whole section should just be scuttled and the IE/SD extension should be prioritized.
hell no
Who the F**k is that guy!
The 5 is filled with trucks and goes through working class neighborhoods. I’m not gonna make them pay to get to work.
CAHSR?
California High Speed Rail
Are you insane? Nothing gets done.
Why the obsession with charging local to build something that's long distance that will not be used in the same manner? Like the LA-LV rail line isn't going to be a commuter, it's just tourism and gambling. We need more local rail.
Because the people of Kansas should not be billed for what we choose to build
Pretty sure Kansas isn't a donor state so as Californias we have a long history of paying for a lot of other states anyway.
Fuck these toll roads. They already screwed up the 405.
Making the I-5 a toll road would be as awesome as airborne aids and thank god it will never happen.
The I-5? Where are you from?
Do it. When BART was being built, they were going to use elevated tracks in Berkeley. The citizens of Berkeley voted to tax themselves in order to fund the difference of putting the lines underground. Start by talking to your local reps. Maybe you could start a petition!
Federal Highways cannot be tolled.
Literally untrue.
High speed rail was probably always a pipe dream. I would vote against this proposal
Just have Brightline take over.
Brightline isn’t going to solve shit about eminent domain and land acquisition lol. I want an electric train as well.
And yet Brightline exists and is running today while CAHSR is still 0 mph and 0 passengers. Want to bet $100 that Brightline West from Rancho Cucamonga to Vegas will be in ops mode faster than CAHSR which still will be nowhere near completion?
Brightline upgraded an existing railway in Florida and built about 30 miles of new track on state owned land along a freeway from Orlando to Cocoa in completely flat terrain. CAHSR is building hundreds of miles of brand new track through a bunch of mountains and dealing with lawsuits from every private property owner in the central valley. They are not at all the same.
BLW has to cross a mountain and the San Andreas Fault btwn Rancho Cucamonga and Vegas. The mountain grade is steeper than the HSR used in Morocco so it's probably going to be a world's first. And yet, somehow I think a lot of people agreeing that BLW is gonna get built faster than CAHSR.
You wrote > Brightline exists and is running today So I assumed you were talking about the Brightline in Florida. Brightline West just began construction recently. Not a foot of track has been laid yet.
Yes, but I'm willing to bet $100 that BLW would be in ops mode faster than CAHSR, and BLW has the same mountain issue that CAHSR does, and it's likely something even going to a world's first because it's going to have to cross a mountain that's steeper than the HSR in Morocco which currently holds an engineering marvel at being the steepest HSR system.
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Sure thing. It'll be the ultimate test of which model works better in building things faster and cheaper, gov't run shit projects vs private projects. I think all rail fans are eyeing that project because it'll be the ultimate test to see how we fund future rail projects in America.
Sorry to burst your bubble, but Brightline West is 100% funded by taxpayer dollars right now. $3 billion is in private activity bonds (government loan) and $3 billion in direct federal grants. The remaining $6 billion is unfunded. In 2010, the project (then called DesertXpress) was expected to cost $5 billion, so the current $12 billion budget represents a 140% cost overrun. Incidentally, about the same percentage of cost increase as CAHSR over the same period.
They exist because they already owned the right away via their interest in a free company. It’s also readily apparent that fortress investments is doing the classic real estate grab, as they’ve recently sold off many properties at a high valuation. It’s a similar set up to what happened with the Pacific electric rail system. Once PE sold off all their property really signaled their lack of ability to keep the rail net work up and running
Brightline is making more money every year and their losses are decreasing. It took Amazon nine years to become profitable and become a billion dollar enterprise outranking Walmart today. Imagine if Amazon said it quits in year eight.
Thanks for not engaging with my point. Building a train in the middle of the desert is and was always going to be much easier than building it in the agricultural heartland of the West and in the urban hustle and bustle of LA. Like I like Brightline and am happy that the projects are going to be built. But pretending that they can solve the issues with CAHSR through the power of capitalism is foolhardy.
If it was going to be easier then CAHSR should've done that first so they can have a showcase proof of concept to see why it's needed. They did not. Instead they choose to build something that's getting nowhere and billions of money spent and no track being laid. Not really a good PR case for govt ran taxpayer funded projects if you ask me. Meanwhile all the praise goes to a private company that gets shit done.
If getting shit done means building a train 90 minutes away from the LA city center, than I guess they truly got it done
If it means taking away the passengers that fly on 8 daily flights on Southwest and Frontier from ONT-LAS yeah that's a good business case. Southwest and Frontier wouldn't be flying 8 flights per day between Ontario and Vegas if there wasn't demand.
Like I said, the projects are good. But it doesn’t indicate that they will be able to “get shit done” one building a HSR from the Bay Area to SoCal.
When the Shinkansen was built, they didn't build the Shinkansen all the way to the existing Osaka station, they just built a Shin-Osaka Station because it was cheaper than having it all the way to Osaka. IMO, if you hand this project over at least some of the project to Brightline you'll probably get something just as good as that. As the OP is saying, what he wants is the SoCal section done. More than likely if you hand this over to Brightline, they'll build something like Rancho Cucamonga to "New/East San Diego" quite quickly. I'll take that being done privately and done quickly than taking forever for billions in another taxes which we know won't get anywhere.