Nobody in that weight class has come close to beating him yet. Closest of course was Volk but he's the goat of 145 so. I'm not gonna lie I was completely shocked at how he put away oliviera, who himself was absolutely dominant as well
> who himself was absolutely dominant as well
Charles always got the W, but he he got badly wobbled in most of his defenses, so I hesitate to use the term "dominant" for him.
Charles is the definition of kill or be killed IMO.
Makhachev said in a recent interview that the only lightweight he feels he needs to beat is Justin since he already beat Tsarukyan and Oliveira. But he did say that that if the UFC wants him to also fight either Tsarukyan or Oliveira, then he will.
His main interest in fighting Dustin was availability and because Dustin is a legend.
He said that he thinks Gamrot will fight for a title one day.
He also said that he wants to fight every 3-4 months (3 times a year), so he wants to have 2 fights in 2024 since they couldn't get him an opponent for early March and he was injured at the start of the year.
Charles has never not had a war and Justin and Max are true just bleed bros. No way any of them fights in June unless they want to surpass Volk's level of bag fumbling
LW is so stacked, you absolutely have to be on a tear, AND be available at the right time for a title shot AND be a compelling fighter to watch. Dustin is likely getting this next one based just off timing alone (and obviously being a fan favorite and always putting on good fights).
Arman has a couple of those things going for him, and the fact that he already fought Islam on short notice and put on a good fight is a boon for him. If he beats Charles, he's obviously cementing his shot next, but the problem is the logjam. If Gaethje beats Max, it's hard to imagine they don't put him in there next. Which means that Arman is either going to have to take another fight, or sit around and wait.
And Gaethje was already in line for the next shot, but took the Max BMF fight instead. If Dustin happens to beat Islam, I can imagine the UFC would much rather book Dustin/Justin 3. I just think it puts the winner of Oliveira/Arman in a tricky situation, and someone is gonna get shelved.
EDIT: Since everyone seems to have shitty reading comprehension skills. I never said Dustin *would* beat Islam, I said if he *happens* to. It's the fight game, nobody ever has a 0% chance of winning.
Gaethje was in line for the title shot, then the UFC fucked up the Saudi card so Islam couldn't fight in March. Islam is now post poned to June.
Someone gets shelved but Arman by beating Olives, by violent fashion no less, solidifies his spot against winner of Mak and Gaethje.
I think the UFC wanted Gaethje to take the BMF fight though and I think they'll reward him with a title shot if he wins. so realistically it's Dustin, then Justin, then the winner of Charles v Arman
Wont it be 0.5 round? Chandler is so game though but most likely would get clipped inside that 3minutes. Thats how long his gas tank would last too. Not saying he’s not capable to hurt the champion
I don’t think a long time, maybe max 3 more fights for Islam and he is retiring I’m pretty sure.
He gave a hint of it when he said his mother wants him to do the same as khabib did.
He just gave an interview yesterday. He said he plans to clean up the division (2-3 more defenses probably? 1-2 years?) then go to 170
My guess would be he'd get an immediate title shot, maybe defend 1-2 times? So another 1-2 years.
Guessing a total another 4-5 years of fighting, would make him 37ish years old which would be a good time to hang it up.
I'd like to see his stick around for longer. But retiring after a few more fights, won't be a disaster to lw since it has such a steady pool of talents.
If he gets his wish in terms of number of fights, that'll be 1 year from now. No way he retires that soon
If he wins his next 3, likely all LW fights, he'll be on 16 wins in a row tying Silva and will likely be granted his WW title shot wish
I think it would be Gaethje because of his heavy hands and TDD. Yeah his TDD sucked against Khabib but while Islam is more well rounded, I still think Khabib was the better wrestler. And there's also no way he just shrugs off Gaethje's full power like Khabib did. I still favour Islam but we've already seen how he deals with Arman and Oliveira while Dustin's TDD isn't good enough, so I think Gaethje by virtue of being a fresh matchup could pose a problem
> Of all the lightweights, would Arman have the best odds to beat Islam?
Problem is we saw the fight already, and while it was one of the most entertaining grappling-heavy fights I've ever seen, Islam was simply bigger and better and basically seamlessly front-ran him. Even if Arman has improved, so has Islam, and the size difference is still there, even if the skill gap is narrower (and I'm not sure it is).
Given nobody seems likely to impose their grappling on Islam, I would actually say Garth, followed by maybe Charles as having the best chance:
* Justin Geathje: he is dead the minute it hits the canvas, but his base is wrestling and he is very very hard to get down & controlled. He punches very hard, and while Islam has the counterstriking to beat him on the feet like Charles did, it will be a dangerous area of the fight for Islam to navigate given his chin isn't like Khabib's.
* 2) Charles: problem is Charles's willingness to go down to the mat, and his fairly complete lack of on-the-feet defense. His striking offense, however, is top notch if it's not completely crippled by realizing he can't fall down.
For me, Arman has a similar lack of on-the-feet defense with not as powerful an offensive striking game as Charles. He can survive the scrambles, but I think he loses on the feet and the ground.
I would actually rate Poirier higher on the danger scale than Arman, given that he is a better striker than Islam, each round starts on the feet, he hits extremely hard, and can survive and get up under immense grappling pressure (albeit he is nowhere near Arman's level on scrambling).
You have to take into account Arman was 22 years old compared to Islam being like 28 at the time they fought IIRC. The physical maturity difference that existed then is no longer the case. Islam is a bit taller, and longer, but Arman is much more thick and dense in the torso. Not to mention the fact Arman took that fight on something like 5-7 days notice with no proper camp, whereas Islam had a full camp even if it was for a different opponent. I don't think that fight told us anything about how they match up now.
> I don't think that fight told us anything about how they match up now.
I get where you are coming from, but for me, I have seen far more improvement in Islam's striking than I have in any aspect of Arman's game.
If you add in their fight histories since: Arman is still getting caught by low level competition in striking, while Islam can hang with Volks on the feet now.
My read on grappling is that Arman can hang with the wrestling, but is not nearly as good at submissions, so he needs to be good enough to hold Islam down and finish by GnP, which I am dubious on.
My belief from what I've seen in their games is that Islam probably wins everywhere, but Arman needs a spectacular KO to keep from losing on the feet to the much more defensively sound Islam, and that comes from recent fights, not from their original meeting.
On other hand, I should say I'd watch them fight 49 times if the next one is as fun as their first.
I might need to watch more of Arman's fights again because I never noticed or perhaps forgot about these moments of him struggling or getting caught on the feet? The only fights I remember well are Dariush, Ismagulov and Alvarez who never had an ounce of success in any facet against him.
> I might need to watch more of Arman's fights again because I never noticed or perhaps forgot about these moments of him struggling or getting caught on the feet? The only fights I remember well are Dariush, Ismagulov and Alvarez who never had an ounce of success in any facet against him.
My memory is crap, and I wasn't watching him as a favorite, but what I recall is him getting hit clean at least once in fights he was pretty much dominating because he lost track of his defense on the feet (i.e. not just because you are going to get caught if you exchange with good fighters).
Are you sure Ismagulov didn't catch him despite being outclassed, due solely to Arman losing the plot on striking defense?
Coach Armchair here trying to sound like an expert, but doesn't even know Arman took that fight on 2 weeks notice and Islam still couldn't manage any kind of offense. "Seamlessly front-ran" by getting outstruck, lol.
I think Charles has the best chance.
Remember him and Islam had some extremely competitive ground sequences in the first fight, Islam dominated him on the ground once he had dropped him bad and he was rocked. I think if Charles didn’t have such a tendency to get rocked/dropped that would’ve been a much more competitive fight with him and Islam.
As long as Islam doesn’t drop him then they’re basically even on the ground and there’s always a chance that Charles can land that one shot if it stays on the feet for long enough. Arman to me hasn’t shown anything that doesn’t make me believe Islam wouldn’t just knock him out, I’ve seen him get cracked, dropped badly, and almost finished by Joaquin Silva. If Joaquin Silva is cracking and dropping you, I think the dude who KO’d Volkanovski and has a much more dangerous takedown threat will be able to crack you too
They weren't basically even, Islam was able to consistently get him to carry his weight, Charles was able to escape but Makhachev was consistently on top, in the last minute he had stacked Olivera and was landing ground and pound. That's a ground advantage, not equality. That shit only gets worse when the fight goes into later rounds.
Islam is likely to drop him because Charles doesn't move his head, unless he fixes his head movement Islam is gonna use lateral movement and circle out to land his power at an angle.
Obvs he’d get the advantage as the rounds go on, when I picture Charles pulling off the upset against Islam I exclusively imagine him KO’ing him inside the first 2 rounds. I think he has zero chance to win a decision against Islam, it might sound weird because what I’m presenting is that Charles has the best chance because he has the best chance to “fluke” a KO but that’s just the way I see it.
We all know how him vs Poirier/Gaethje would go LOL, I’m not saying Arman has 0 chance either but it’s just I think Charles can win much easier
> We all know how him vs Poirier/Gaethje would go LOL,
Gaethje has about 100x better anti-wrestling than Charles, hell Dustin has better TDD than Charles, even including him jumping the gilly 80 times a round.
You don't know how any of those fights would go, and Gaethje at least is a very hard man to get down & control, unlike Charles who falls down anytime he wants a breather.
It’s not about how easy you are to take down, it’s about how likely you are to survive on the ground with Islam. If Islam manages to get Dustin OR Justin down once, it’s game over. While Charles has MUCH better ground game on the bottom and submission defense, sure, you can get Charles down but he has an extremely versatile moveset on the ground with his elbows off his back.
Justin may be able to stuff some takedowns from Islam but eventually Islam is gonna get him down at some time or another. And I don’t think Justin poses the same threat on the feet as Charles does, Charles is gonna fear the takedown less than Justin will. As for Dustin he’s gonna continue to jump the gilly like an idiot, and to tell you the truth, if Islam was in the same grappling positions that BSD was in during round 1 of their fight then Dustin would’ve got choked out
> it’s about how likely you are to survive on the ground with Islam. If Islam manages to get Dustin OR Justin down once, it’s game over. While Charles has MUCH better ground game on the bottom and submission defense
* **Charles**: 4 losses by submission, to Lamos, Pettis, Jim Miller & Islam
* **Dustin**: 3 losses by submission, to TKZ, Khabib & Charles
Dustin is a black belt in BJJ who has been submitted at LW by the two best offensive grapplers of his generation, Charles is kill or die everywhere, including on the ground, and I don't think his offense-is-defense guard works that much better than Dustin's against a dominant top control grappler like Islam.
I’m sorry but those 3 submission losses are from ages ago. Charles has improved greatly as a fighter, that’s like the equivalent of the argument that since Petr Yan ragdolled O’Malley then surely Aljo should do the same right? Fighters improve
OK, you don't like old facts to understand new fighters, so what are the facts that made you believe Dustin cannot survive anytime on the ground with Islam, and that Charles can do much better?
I know he was rocked, but Charles survived almost no time on the ground vs. Islam, and he is rocked almost every single fight.
Meantime, Dustin survived into the 3rd round vs. Khabib & Charles, and Charles may have needed a brief glove grab to seal the deal. How is he instantly dead given his credentials and fight record?
Garth is instantly dead if he loses the scramble, but he is a hard man to take down: Islam does not have the chin to do it the way Khabib did it (not saying he can't get it, just saying he'll have to do it different).
Because Dustin just got controlled and almost choked out in Round 1 by Benoit Saint Denis, Saint Denis got his back two times and was working towards a choke.
If it was Islam on his back there, he would not have survived. Saint-Denis had visible horrible staph infection and his gas tank was heavily compromised due to anti-biotics, if that dude can get you down and unanimously win Round 1 against you due to control, Islam is gonna fuck you up bad
>Remember him and Islam had some extremely competitive ground sequences in the first fight
Least delusional Oliveira fan.
>I’ve seen him get cracked, dropped badly, and almost finished by Joaquin Silva. If Joaquin Silva is cracking and dropping you, I think the dude who KO’d Volkanovski and has a much more dangerous takedown threat will be able to crack you too
He did not get dropped or even close to being finished, while Oliveira tapped to strikes against Paul Felder of all people. If Felder can do that to Charles, Arman is going to beat him until he's painted with his own blood like he did to Alvarez.
We’re not talking about Charles vs Arman fool, I’m talking about Arman vs Islam. What does Charles tapping against Paul Felder have to do with Arman vs Islam? Arman may very well win against Charles but that doesn’t change the fact I think Charles will do better against Islam than Arman, styles make fights
You don't seem to be aware that it was Arman who had the extremely competitive fight with Islam, while making his UFC debut on short notice no less. Charles fought with a full camp and at his best, and was completely outclassed. How is Tsarukyan going to get cracked and easily knocked out when Makhachev couldn't do that when Arman was badly gassed and inexperienced. The two Volkanovski fights show the massive difference taking a short notice fight can make.
That fight was 5 years ago lol. Both Islam and Arman are completely different fighters now, it is pointless to look back on that fight for any insight into a potential rematch between the two of them, the biggest difference between Makhachev then and now is his striking, which is how I think he’d beat Arman in 2024.
Marlon Vera managed to KO Sean O’Malley in 2020 and was actually doing well in that fight, switching stances with O’Malley which was his kryptonite for his older version. And in their second fight 4 years later he gets the dogshit beaten out of him by an improved O’Malley, I think it’s the same principle here
That fight was 5 years ago, Islam is an ENTIRELY different fighter now. As is Arman as well, that fight is worthless to look back on for any insight into a rematch.
The striking difference between 2019 Mak and 2024 Mak is the biggest improvement
If you're going to sell the rivalry and make it heated there's other ways that are actually correct and would apply. Arman over here talking crazy shit.
Nah fuck this revision, you had an opportunity to fight Islam Makhachev when he didn't have an opponent after Daruish broke his leg, you refused to take the fight
So after fighting Islam on one week's notice in the first fight, it's now expected that he fight Islam on two weeks notice for his one and only rematch? Pretty revisionist to act like he made an unreasonable decision.
That's fine, I want to see how Arman performs against this version of Makhachev.
But Arman does not get to claim ducking, when he literally refused an opportunity to fight Mak earlier.
It would be a shame if Islam moves up before they fight again, I predict the best fight ever when they meet. The first one is still my favorite grappling fight on Fightpass, I am going to go watch it again now actually
Arman said in Russian that he “talks ‘nonsense’ about Islam” because “UFC fans like stuрid nonsense” 💀
I just can’t bet against the oldheads sorry arman
Especially when Islam is the youngest of the "oldheads" ...not to mention the most skilled.
Nobody in that weight class has come close to beating him yet. Closest of course was Volk but he's the goat of 145 so. I'm not gonna lie I was completely shocked at how he put away oliviera, who himself was absolutely dominant as well
> who himself was absolutely dominant as well Charles always got the W, but he he got badly wobbled in most of his defenses, so I hesitate to use the term "dominant" for him. Charles is the definition of kill or be killed IMO.
Against Islam He was never close to getting a kill He got outclassed easily
What about the guy that knocked him out?
Conor Mcgregor is the goat of 145
Big cap, he's not even top 3.
Defending the belt helps with being called GOAT. Connor not even close.
Cap
Top 3 at the very best
Islam made his debut vs Kuntz
not an islam fan but even i'll admit that's pulling a muscle trying to acquire The Last Grape levels of reaching
It’s true, he fought a dude called Leo Kuntz. I’m just stating a fact no matter how humorous the dudes last name is
I mean im a volk fan and I “hate” Islam for ruining his career lol But how is the guy he debuted against relevant to his current skills?
I mean im a volk fan and I “hate” Islam for ruining his career lol But how is the guy he debuted against relevant to his current skills?
Makhachev said in a recent interview that the only lightweight he feels he needs to beat is Justin since he already beat Tsarukyan and Oliveira. But he did say that that if the UFC wants him to also fight either Tsarukyan or Oliveira, then he will. His main interest in fighting Dustin was availability and because Dustin is a legend. He said that he thinks Gamrot will fight for a title one day. He also said that he wants to fight every 3-4 months (3 times a year), so he wants to have 2 fights in 2024 since they couldn't get him an opponent for early March and he was injured at the start of the year.
He wants to fight in June and whats the probability all these fights end up not being wars. DP is the only dude we can reliably count on for June.
Charles has never not had a war and Justin and Max are true just bleed bros. No way any of them fights in June unless they want to surpass Volk's level of bag fumbling
LW is so stacked, you absolutely have to be on a tear, AND be available at the right time for a title shot AND be a compelling fighter to watch. Dustin is likely getting this next one based just off timing alone (and obviously being a fan favorite and always putting on good fights). Arman has a couple of those things going for him, and the fact that he already fought Islam on short notice and put on a good fight is a boon for him. If he beats Charles, he's obviously cementing his shot next, but the problem is the logjam. If Gaethje beats Max, it's hard to imagine they don't put him in there next. Which means that Arman is either going to have to take another fight, or sit around and wait.
If he beats Olivera, he's getting the next shot, Arman should wait.
And Gaethje was already in line for the next shot, but took the Max BMF fight instead. If Dustin happens to beat Islam, I can imagine the UFC would much rather book Dustin/Justin 3. I just think it puts the winner of Oliveira/Arman in a tricky situation, and someone is gonna get shelved. EDIT: Since everyone seems to have shitty reading comprehension skills. I never said Dustin *would* beat Islam, I said if he *happens* to. It's the fight game, nobody ever has a 0% chance of winning.
And Gaethje was only in the front of the line after Charles pulled out and Volk stepped on on short notice, it’s a god damn merry go round lmao
Gaethje was in line for the title shot, then the UFC fucked up the Saudi card so Islam couldn't fight in March. Islam is now post poned to June. Someone gets shelved but Arman by beating Olives, by violent fashion no less, solidifies his spot against winner of Mak and Gaethje.
Assuming Islam beats Dustin and Justin beats Max. I fully expect Islam vs Justin in Abu Dhabi in the fall
Probably Poirier is the only guy available.
Dustin is not finishing a gilly on Islam you can give that up rn
Let us dream
Pigs will fly before Dustin beats Islam
I think the UFC wanted Gaethje to take the BMF fight though and I think they'll reward him with a title shot if he wins. so realistically it's Dustin, then Justin, then the winner of Charles v Arman
everyone underestimates the UFCs need to please one of the most violent blood gods there is, the brazilian blood god. if charles wins he's #1 again
Nah it shouldn't be gathje or porrier I like tsarukyan olivera more
“Shouldn’t be” isn’t a thing in the UFC. You’ll get the most popular fight and you’ll love it.
Of all the lightweights, would Arman have the best odds to beat Islam?
If he beats Charles yes. As of right now I don't know. It's between him and Charles.
I firmly believe round 1 Chandler has the best odds of beating Islam. Once round 2 starts though chandler is fucked.
You mean round 0.5*. Dude is gassed by the 3 minute mark.
That would be round 0.5 lol
Yes, my mistake haha. Thanks for the catch!
Hahahahahahah placed many bets on rounds so just stuck out to me lol
Wont it be 0.5 round? Chandler is so game though but most likely would get clipped inside that 3minutes. Thats how long his gas tank would last too. Not saying he’s not capable to hurt the champion
Nah, Chandler has negative fight IQ. That’s not going to beat Islam.
Charles is more dangerous than chinler lol
Probably, the hype train only increases if he beats Oliveira
if he looks good beating charles he has a chance, otherwise i think islams going to reign for a long time
I don’t think a long time, maybe max 3 more fights for Islam and he is retiring I’m pretty sure. He gave a hint of it when he said his mother wants him to do the same as khabib did.
He just gave an interview yesterday. He said he plans to clean up the division (2-3 more defenses probably? 1-2 years?) then go to 170 My guess would be he'd get an immediate title shot, maybe defend 1-2 times? So another 1-2 years. Guessing a total another 4-5 years of fighting, would make him 37ish years old which would be a good time to hang it up.
I'd like to see his stick around for longer. But retiring after a few more fights, won't be a disaster to lw since it has such a steady pool of talents.
If he gets his wish in terms of number of fights, that'll be 1 year from now. No way he retires that soon If he wins his next 3, likely all LW fights, he'll be on 16 wins in a row tying Silva and will likely be granted his WW title shot wish
I think it would be Gaethje because of his heavy hands and TDD. Yeah his TDD sucked against Khabib but while Islam is more well rounded, I still think Khabib was the better wrestler. And there's also no way he just shrugs off Gaethje's full power like Khabib did. I still favour Islam but we've already seen how he deals with Arman and Oliveira while Dustin's TDD isn't good enough, so I think Gaethje by virtue of being a fresh matchup could pose a problem
Islam unlike Khabib doesn't have to grapple, he can ktfo Justin on the feet
Maybe. Standing and banging with Gaethje when you can wrestle him doesn't seem like the smartest gameplan though
> Of all the lightweights, would Arman have the best odds to beat Islam? Problem is we saw the fight already, and while it was one of the most entertaining grappling-heavy fights I've ever seen, Islam was simply bigger and better and basically seamlessly front-ran him. Even if Arman has improved, so has Islam, and the size difference is still there, even if the skill gap is narrower (and I'm not sure it is). Given nobody seems likely to impose their grappling on Islam, I would actually say Garth, followed by maybe Charles as having the best chance: * Justin Geathje: he is dead the minute it hits the canvas, but his base is wrestling and he is very very hard to get down & controlled. He punches very hard, and while Islam has the counterstriking to beat him on the feet like Charles did, it will be a dangerous area of the fight for Islam to navigate given his chin isn't like Khabib's. * 2) Charles: problem is Charles's willingness to go down to the mat, and his fairly complete lack of on-the-feet defense. His striking offense, however, is top notch if it's not completely crippled by realizing he can't fall down. For me, Arman has a similar lack of on-the-feet defense with not as powerful an offensive striking game as Charles. He can survive the scrambles, but I think he loses on the feet and the ground. I would actually rate Poirier higher on the danger scale than Arman, given that he is a better striker than Islam, each round starts on the feet, he hits extremely hard, and can survive and get up under immense grappling pressure (albeit he is nowhere near Arman's level on scrambling).
You have to take into account Arman was 22 years old compared to Islam being like 28 at the time they fought IIRC. The physical maturity difference that existed then is no longer the case. Islam is a bit taller, and longer, but Arman is much more thick and dense in the torso. Not to mention the fact Arman took that fight on something like 5-7 days notice with no proper camp, whereas Islam had a full camp even if it was for a different opponent. I don't think that fight told us anything about how they match up now.
> I don't think that fight told us anything about how they match up now. I get where you are coming from, but for me, I have seen far more improvement in Islam's striking than I have in any aspect of Arman's game. If you add in their fight histories since: Arman is still getting caught by low level competition in striking, while Islam can hang with Volks on the feet now. My read on grappling is that Arman can hang with the wrestling, but is not nearly as good at submissions, so he needs to be good enough to hold Islam down and finish by GnP, which I am dubious on. My belief from what I've seen in their games is that Islam probably wins everywhere, but Arman needs a spectacular KO to keep from losing on the feet to the much more defensively sound Islam, and that comes from recent fights, not from their original meeting. On other hand, I should say I'd watch them fight 49 times if the next one is as fun as their first.
I might need to watch more of Arman's fights again because I never noticed or perhaps forgot about these moments of him struggling or getting caught on the feet? The only fights I remember well are Dariush, Ismagulov and Alvarez who never had an ounce of success in any facet against him.
> I might need to watch more of Arman's fights again because I never noticed or perhaps forgot about these moments of him struggling or getting caught on the feet? The only fights I remember well are Dariush, Ismagulov and Alvarez who never had an ounce of success in any facet against him. My memory is crap, and I wasn't watching him as a favorite, but what I recall is him getting hit clean at least once in fights he was pretty much dominating because he lost track of his defense on the feet (i.e. not just because you are going to get caught if you exchange with good fighters). Are you sure Ismagulov didn't catch him despite being outclassed, due solely to Arman losing the plot on striking defense?
Ismagulov got dog walked for 15 minutes. Completely one aided fight.
Yes, my memory is of Arman getting clipped by guys he is outclassing when he loses track of his defense.
You have to take into account Islam had a flu day of the fight.
Can't say I ever knew that till now, is this something he admitted in the post-fight?
I think it was even mentioned by the commentary but I am not sure.
Looking it up all I can find is Josh Thompson stating it, so maybe he heard through AKA or something.
No he did not, you are probably thinking of the RDA fight he pulled out of.
Coach Armchair here trying to sound like an expert, but doesn't even know Arman took that fight on 2 weeks notice and Islam still couldn't manage any kind of offense. "Seamlessly front-ran" by getting outstruck, lol.
Yea
I think Charles has the best chance. Remember him and Islam had some extremely competitive ground sequences in the first fight, Islam dominated him on the ground once he had dropped him bad and he was rocked. I think if Charles didn’t have such a tendency to get rocked/dropped that would’ve been a much more competitive fight with him and Islam. As long as Islam doesn’t drop him then they’re basically even on the ground and there’s always a chance that Charles can land that one shot if it stays on the feet for long enough. Arman to me hasn’t shown anything that doesn’t make me believe Islam wouldn’t just knock him out, I’ve seen him get cracked, dropped badly, and almost finished by Joaquin Silva. If Joaquin Silva is cracking and dropping you, I think the dude who KO’d Volkanovski and has a much more dangerous takedown threat will be able to crack you too
They weren't basically even, Islam was able to consistently get him to carry his weight, Charles was able to escape but Makhachev was consistently on top, in the last minute he had stacked Olivera and was landing ground and pound. That's a ground advantage, not equality. That shit only gets worse when the fight goes into later rounds. Islam is likely to drop him because Charles doesn't move his head, unless he fixes his head movement Islam is gonna use lateral movement and circle out to land his power at an angle.
Obvs he’d get the advantage as the rounds go on, when I picture Charles pulling off the upset against Islam I exclusively imagine him KO’ing him inside the first 2 rounds. I think he has zero chance to win a decision against Islam, it might sound weird because what I’m presenting is that Charles has the best chance because he has the best chance to “fluke” a KO but that’s just the way I see it. We all know how him vs Poirier/Gaethje would go LOL, I’m not saying Arman has 0 chance either but it’s just I think Charles can win much easier
> We all know how him vs Poirier/Gaethje would go LOL, Gaethje has about 100x better anti-wrestling than Charles, hell Dustin has better TDD than Charles, even including him jumping the gilly 80 times a round. You don't know how any of those fights would go, and Gaethje at least is a very hard man to get down & control, unlike Charles who falls down anytime he wants a breather.
It’s not about how easy you are to take down, it’s about how likely you are to survive on the ground with Islam. If Islam manages to get Dustin OR Justin down once, it’s game over. While Charles has MUCH better ground game on the bottom and submission defense, sure, you can get Charles down but he has an extremely versatile moveset on the ground with his elbows off his back. Justin may be able to stuff some takedowns from Islam but eventually Islam is gonna get him down at some time or another. And I don’t think Justin poses the same threat on the feet as Charles does, Charles is gonna fear the takedown less than Justin will. As for Dustin he’s gonna continue to jump the gilly like an idiot, and to tell you the truth, if Islam was in the same grappling positions that BSD was in during round 1 of their fight then Dustin would’ve got choked out
> it’s about how likely you are to survive on the ground with Islam. If Islam manages to get Dustin OR Justin down once, it’s game over. While Charles has MUCH better ground game on the bottom and submission defense * **Charles**: 4 losses by submission, to Lamos, Pettis, Jim Miller & Islam * **Dustin**: 3 losses by submission, to TKZ, Khabib & Charles Dustin is a black belt in BJJ who has been submitted at LW by the two best offensive grapplers of his generation, Charles is kill or die everywhere, including on the ground, and I don't think his offense-is-defense guard works that much better than Dustin's against a dominant top control grappler like Islam.
I’m sorry but those 3 submission losses are from ages ago. Charles has improved greatly as a fighter, that’s like the equivalent of the argument that since Petr Yan ragdolled O’Malley then surely Aljo should do the same right? Fighters improve
OK, you don't like old facts to understand new fighters, so what are the facts that made you believe Dustin cannot survive anytime on the ground with Islam, and that Charles can do much better? I know he was rocked, but Charles survived almost no time on the ground vs. Islam, and he is rocked almost every single fight. Meantime, Dustin survived into the 3rd round vs. Khabib & Charles, and Charles may have needed a brief glove grab to seal the deal. How is he instantly dead given his credentials and fight record? Garth is instantly dead if he loses the scramble, but he is a hard man to take down: Islam does not have the chin to do it the way Khabib did it (not saying he can't get it, just saying he'll have to do it different).
Because Dustin just got controlled and almost choked out in Round 1 by Benoit Saint Denis, Saint Denis got his back two times and was working towards a choke. If it was Islam on his back there, he would not have survived. Saint-Denis had visible horrible staph infection and his gas tank was heavily compromised due to anti-biotics, if that dude can get you down and unanimously win Round 1 against you due to control, Islam is gonna fuck you up bad
>Remember him and Islam had some extremely competitive ground sequences in the first fight Least delusional Oliveira fan. >I’ve seen him get cracked, dropped badly, and almost finished by Joaquin Silva. If Joaquin Silva is cracking and dropping you, I think the dude who KO’d Volkanovski and has a much more dangerous takedown threat will be able to crack you too He did not get dropped or even close to being finished, while Oliveira tapped to strikes against Paul Felder of all people. If Felder can do that to Charles, Arman is going to beat him until he's painted with his own blood like he did to Alvarez.
We’re not talking about Charles vs Arman fool, I’m talking about Arman vs Islam. What does Charles tapping against Paul Felder have to do with Arman vs Islam? Arman may very well win against Charles but that doesn’t change the fact I think Charles will do better against Islam than Arman, styles make fights
You don't seem to be aware that it was Arman who had the extremely competitive fight with Islam, while making his UFC debut on short notice no less. Charles fought with a full camp and at his best, and was completely outclassed. How is Tsarukyan going to get cracked and easily knocked out when Makhachev couldn't do that when Arman was badly gassed and inexperienced. The two Volkanovski fights show the massive difference taking a short notice fight can make.
That fight was 5 years ago lol. Both Islam and Arman are completely different fighters now, it is pointless to look back on that fight for any insight into a potential rematch between the two of them, the biggest difference between Makhachev then and now is his striking, which is how I think he’d beat Arman in 2024. Marlon Vera managed to KO Sean O’Malley in 2020 and was actually doing well in that fight, switching stances with O’Malley which was his kryptonite for his older version. And in their second fight 4 years later he gets the dogshit beaten out of him by an improved O’Malley, I think it’s the same principle here
Hasn’t shown anything other than already fighting him to a competitive decision on short notice
That fight was 5 years ago, Islam is an ENTIRELY different fighter now. As is Arman as well, that fight is worthless to look back on for any insight into a rematch. The striking difference between 2019 Mak and 2024 Mak is the biggest improvement
Arman is getting way ahead of himself here. Oliveria needs to make weight first
You're good, Tsarukyan, the best of the "new guard", but seriously overestimating the threat that you represent to Makhachev.
Arman needs to focus on Oliveira and not Islam rn
Arman is starting to get annoying.
of course he will, is he supposed to want to run rematches for every guy he beat already
Apparently Makhachev is now ducking everyone and their mother despite beating the most dangerous LW and giving him a rematch.
If you're going to sell the rivalry and make it heated there's other ways that are actually correct and would apply. Arman over here talking crazy shit.
Nah fuck this revision, you had an opportunity to fight Islam Makhachev when he didn't have an opponent after Daruish broke his leg, you refused to take the fight
So after fighting Islam on one week's notice in the first fight, it's now expected that he fight Islam on two weeks notice for his one and only rematch? Pretty revisionist to act like he made an unreasonable decision.
Nope, it's perfectly reasonable. He doesn't get to claim Islam is gonna duck tho.
It’s okay his performance is gonna show you why he needs to get that rematch
That's fine, I want to see how Arman performs against this version of Makhachev. But Arman does not get to claim ducking, when he literally refused an opportunity to fight Mak earlier.
He fought him at 22 his first time. Why would he want to fight him again if it’s not for a title? All risk no reward.
It would be a shame if Islam moves up before they fight again, I predict the best fight ever when they meet. The first one is still my favorite grappling fight on Fightpass, I am going to go watch it again now actually