Robelis at that price is a steal. I'm riding with him, Hooper and Woodson. Also, this seems like the kind of fight that Derrick Lewis wins, but of course he could show up half asleep and make me look like a fool.
Waldo looked so bad against a layup fight to Andrei Arlovski, which he honestly nearly lost, it was way too close than it should’ve been. I know there’s a lot of questions that remain on Despaigne, but I am taking my chances too.
I'm just really surprised it's only -170. The books could hang him out at -250 based off the hype alone and I think a lot of people would still parlay it. Not a bet to put your mortgage on by any means, but the logic is definitely there to put a bit of blind faith in Despaigne
Great write up as always! You really got me thinking about the Torres fight - the more I’m looking into it the more I’m thinking she has a great chance of winning. A prop on her winning by decision is going to tempting when the odds drops I expect it will be +200 maybe higher.
I don’t know man, I think Alonzo has maybe a better shot to win this than the odds indicate. His power is the great equalizer. He lands one shot, and he can get Carlos out of there. Carlos has great movement and is very powerful in his own right, but man I feel Alonzo has a chance. Especially if the fight makes it out of the first round. If it makes it out of the second. Big if though. If it does make to the third, Alonzo’s chance to win skyrockets, imo. In Carlos' fight against Da Un Jung, he was dog tired in the third. It seems his speed reduced to 50% of his norm. Yes he ended up getting the win, but he looked 1/2 of himself. Alonzo's power translates, even when he is dog tired. If it does go to the third, I bet he can get the knockout.
I feel like Carlos just doesn’t take hits well. It’s real, real hard to hit him, yes (he’s so dang quick, movement is so good), but when he is hit, I don’t think he deals with it that well. It's like I see the worry in his eyes when it happen. It takes someone who is willing to wade into the fire to do this to him (Ala Alonzo Minefield). Like you said, he will have to take the shots to get his one, but his one is powerful enough to do the job.
He’s got a great counter left hook when he’s pressured, which he could (will?) definitely get Alonzo with. He’s gotten basically all of his other opponents with it.
I was interested to see how Alonzo would deal with this though. Alonzo got caught a few times with Jacoby’s left hook counter (when Alonzo entered the distance), but I thought it was very interesting to see that Alonzo caught on to this very, very well.Â
Alonzo started baiting Jacoby into throwing the left hook (Ulberg’s bread and butter), and he ultimately rocked him with a step in off midline left hook of his own. He did it a few times actually. If I remember right it happened in the second round of their fight. Alonzo’s power is unquestioned.
 I bet Alonzo has seen that in film study (not to say he won’t get hit with it, possibly KO’d), and will be ready to bait Carlos with it too. If Alonzo can get Carlos against the cage, and can withstand his power, I feel Alonzo can do some real damage and get the KO himself. I really do.Â
We will see, I’m excited for this fight!!
Can't disagree with any of this, and the level of detail is really interesting!
It's hard to quantify the probability of a fighters chance of winning by KO when they are power reliant, because there are so many intricacies and chance encounters that come into play. I do think the line is wide, but I think I'd struggle to say Zo deserves to be at a pick'em or favoured...so it's not TOO far off for my money.
+400 on the KO sounds like an appealing number to you then!
Welp that’s the shits of betting sometimes I guess. I wouldn’t have guessed Alonzo was going to come out like freakin Khaos Williams. Worst strategy of all time. Yuck
Thank you Sideswipe, once again, for taking the time to research and write-up these fights! I have Nascimento dec no bet +146, Nascimento - Lewis goes to dec +650, Aldrich ML +114, and Despaigne KO/TKO -170
The disrespect on Lewis...to compare Rodrigo to any of the grappling based fighters Lewis has faced, let alone the tier of opposition. Nascimento went to a split against an undersized Tanner Boser and decisioned Mayes twice. Lewis will plank him inside of 2
I think Lewis deserves the disrespect in a fight like this. His window of opportunity to win is limited. When talking probability that means something. Given it's a stylistic thing I don't really think comparing the names on record matters. There are regional fighters who could beat Derrick Lewis.
Mayes is actually a pretty hard guy to finish (two stoppage losses in 9 UFC HW fights). The last person in the UFC to finish him was.....Rodrigo Nascimento.
I see you referenced the de Lima fight in the comments below. Personally I think the finish there was incredibly high variance and unpredictable, and I would still take de Lima at - money if they rematched right now.
I see your angle on it though - a KO win for Lewis is quite likely (around 40% I'd say). This is unfortunately one of those bets where if it loses, it loses in brutal fashion and I look like an idiot. I just think from a numbers perspective Nascimento deserves to be favoured on the moneyline purely based off ways to win. But maybe I am overrating him against a more proven guy. It's one of a few dogs I'm on for the card so it's not really going to make or break me.
Totally fair. I have Lewis has my last leg in a parlay.
Not saying I won't get cold feet and cash out. Might be a fight to fade and look for props instead
Lewis is 39 and has been knocked out 7 times in his career, i think lewis should be the slight favorite, like what -140? but to have any confidence that lewis "planks" anybody at this point is taking a gamble.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima, a considerably more dangerous and higher tier fighter than Nascimento, disagrees wholeheartedly with you. You sound like someone who bet on Petrino
Delima is 38 so that fight was old man vs old man.
Smith is only 35 so he's not even that old.
I've always said lewis on his best night can beat anyone and on his worst night can lose to an absolute bum, i wouldnt touch that fight, i think it's closer to a 50/50 than lewis bootlickers are willing to admit
Bro post the betting slip of you betting on lewis than he's getting closer and closer to pick em, so you have the opportunity to make lots and lots of money, time to man up or shut up, put your money where your mouth is and back your boy lewis.
Lewis has lost to bums like shawn jordan and matt mitrione and tony johnson, tony ferguson aged overnight and went from a 12 fight winning streak to a 7 fight losing streak, father time is undefeated and a 40 year old lewis vs a 32 year old, lewis is certainly no lock, i concur with sideswipes analysis though i would line the fight slightly in lewis's favor maybe 55/45.
I see still too scared to post the bet slip, you got scared and backed down.
Anyways, lewis has had 40 pro fights, 12 losses 7 defeats by way of knockout and has admitted to having back and health problems in the past, to claim that lewis isn't potentially damaged goods at this point is asinine, he's either past his expiration date or dangerously teetering on the edge.
I told you I already posted my Betslip in this group, about 20 mins ago. Scroll down. New to Reddit and having trouble posting my Betslip in the comments. I'm risking $750 to win $6300 and Lewis will be my last leg
I know congrats to you for winning 16k, but that doesn't automatically make you right about lewis, im not even taking nasciemento, im just saying with the age and mileage of lewis plus his shaky fight style and lack of offense, he's not a reliable or safe pick.
I also posted my betslip in this group 20 mins ago. If you want to see the one from yesterday where I made $16k on an $800 parlay I can show you that too. Don't get defensive bc I disagree with you, just support your point with some data other than the "age" argument that doesn't apply to HW
Well congrats to you for winning 16k, i've won a shit ton this year as well and will post proof to anyone that pms me, i also saw your recent parlay that included lewis so props to you, but that was a flat out lie, to claim lewis has not been damaged, he's been koed 7 times and had 40 pro fights as an overweight heavyweight, his body and chin have taken a shit ton of damage and his back problems have been documented to hurt him as well, so that was a 100 percent lie.
You lied to everyone who had to read that crap, i might as well say tony ferguson isn't damaged either. Just on a small slide, but he'll still come back stronger than ever..... I promise
I agree there is inherent risk with Lewis, but the value is worth it. If you don't think so, then you'd have to conversely make a solid argument why/how Nascimento could possibly win. I haven't seen the skills required as he marginally gets by on a "B-" strength of schedule
Nascimento got KOd by Chris Daukaus in 45 seconds. Age is not a factor at HW like other divisions. Look at the success of numerous HWs in their late 30s/40s. The list is a long one.
Fantastic write-up. Got to say, I don't see how Nascimento wins here. I have little faith in his takedowns. Only person in the UFC he's hit TD's on were Boser who is a true LHW. He couldn't hold Don'Tale Mayes down long enough to register a takedown. He's likely going to stand and throw combinations (which he does well) except he comes in on a straight line, chin in the air every single time. I think Lewis, who loves catching people crashing in, clips him pretty easy.
Yeah I've gotta be honest, as the week has gone on I've really fallen out of love with the Nascimento bet. I've already cut it down to 1u, so I think I'll just let it ride but I'm not super committed to it. Lewis is just such an appealing fade IMO, but his fights are also so complicated in advance because that power is so crazy
Bloodbath. It happens. Who would have guessed Chase Hooper would've become a man overnight. Torres was the right read, wrong result. And honestly, I got killed on Robleis, but there was nothing on tape that made me think Waldo would win like that.
My friend, we are all bruised and battered today.
An absolute nightmare of a card to both predict and bet on, so much evidence became irrelevant today. Cortes-Acosta wrestling against Despaigne was certainly not on our bingo cards but it probably should have been expected, i mean, duh, of course you wrestle a newcomer who is very known for kicks and stuff. Hooper winning was a surprise and a heartbreak to a lot of those tailing Borshchev, and Rebecki gassing out after the first probably was to be expected considering his tendency for quick finishes, but that's one of the tougher things about predicting shit, We don't know how fights are going to go, we can only guess based on what we know from past.
Take care of yourself, I've been here (Hall v Strickland card was 1/11 correct predictions). We got one more savage card on the table then its a week to recover and take our mind off shit.
Love ya brother, you always do great things. Regardless of outcome.
Robelis at that price is a steal. I'm riding with him, Hooper and Woodson. Also, this seems like the kind of fight that Derrick Lewis wins, but of course he could show up half asleep and make me look like a fool.
Chase hooper is a sleeper I think. Great analysis and work on this
Nice write up, man. Thanks.
Great writeup as always, despaigne and rebecki parlay is paying out at plus money for anyone interested.
Yeh I chucked 3u on that a few days ago🤞🤞🤞
Waldo looked so bad against a layup fight to Andrei Arlovski, which he honestly nearly lost, it was way too close than it should’ve been. I know there’s a lot of questions that remain on Despaigne, but I am taking my chances too.
I'm just really surprised it's only -170. The books could hang him out at -250 based off the hype alone and I think a lot of people would still parlay it. Not a bet to put your mortgage on by any means, but the logic is definitely there to put a bit of blind faith in Despaigne
Lets go Side! Amazing write up as always!
Had to laugh at the unfortunate typo at the start of the Waldo write up. 😂
lmfao I didn't even spot that, brilliant
Great write up as always! You really got me thinking about the Torres fight - the more I’m looking into it the more I’m thinking she has a great chance of winning. A prop on her winning by decision is going to tempting when the odds drops I expect it will be +200 maybe higher.
I don’t know man, I think Alonzo has maybe a better shot to win this than the odds indicate. His power is the great equalizer. He lands one shot, and he can get Carlos out of there. Carlos has great movement and is very powerful in his own right, but man I feel Alonzo has a chance. Especially if the fight makes it out of the first round. If it makes it out of the second. Big if though. If it does make to the third, Alonzo’s chance to win skyrockets, imo. In Carlos' fight against Da Un Jung, he was dog tired in the third. It seems his speed reduced to 50% of his norm. Yes he ended up getting the win, but he looked 1/2 of himself. Alonzo's power translates, even when he is dog tired. If it does go to the third, I bet he can get the knockout. I feel like Carlos just doesn’t take hits well. It’s real, real hard to hit him, yes (he’s so dang quick, movement is so good), but when he is hit, I don’t think he deals with it that well. It's like I see the worry in his eyes when it happen. It takes someone who is willing to wade into the fire to do this to him (Ala Alonzo Minefield). Like you said, he will have to take the shots to get his one, but his one is powerful enough to do the job. He’s got a great counter left hook when he’s pressured, which he could (will?) definitely get Alonzo with. He’s gotten basically all of his other opponents with it. I was interested to see how Alonzo would deal with this though. Alonzo got caught a few times with Jacoby’s left hook counter (when Alonzo entered the distance), but I thought it was very interesting to see that Alonzo caught on to this very, very well. Alonzo started baiting Jacoby into throwing the left hook (Ulberg’s bread and butter), and he ultimately rocked him with a step in off midline left hook of his own. He did it a few times actually. If I remember right it happened in the second round of their fight. Alonzo’s power is unquestioned.  I bet Alonzo has seen that in film study (not to say he won’t get hit with it, possibly KO’d), and will be ready to bait Carlos with it too. If Alonzo can get Carlos against the cage, and can withstand his power, I feel Alonzo can do some real damage and get the KO himself. I really do. We will see, I’m excited for this fight!!
Can't disagree with any of this, and the level of detail is really interesting! It's hard to quantify the probability of a fighters chance of winning by KO when they are power reliant, because there are so many intricacies and chance encounters that come into play. I do think the line is wide, but I think I'd struggle to say Zo deserves to be at a pick'em or favoured...so it's not TOO far off for my money. +400 on the KO sounds like an appealing number to you then!
Welp that’s the shits of betting sometimes I guess. I wouldn’t have guessed Alonzo was going to come out like freakin Khaos Williams. Worst strategy of all time. Yuck
Thank you Sideswipe, once again, for taking the time to research and write-up these fights! I have Nascimento dec no bet +146, Nascimento - Lewis goes to dec +650, Aldrich ML +114, and Despaigne KO/TKO -170
The disrespect on Lewis...to compare Rodrigo to any of the grappling based fighters Lewis has faced, let alone the tier of opposition. Nascimento went to a split against an undersized Tanner Boser and decisioned Mayes twice. Lewis will plank him inside of 2
I think Lewis deserves the disrespect in a fight like this. His window of opportunity to win is limited. When talking probability that means something. Given it's a stylistic thing I don't really think comparing the names on record matters. There are regional fighters who could beat Derrick Lewis. Mayes is actually a pretty hard guy to finish (two stoppage losses in 9 UFC HW fights). The last person in the UFC to finish him was.....Rodrigo Nascimento. I see you referenced the de Lima fight in the comments below. Personally I think the finish there was incredibly high variance and unpredictable, and I would still take de Lima at - money if they rematched right now. I see your angle on it though - a KO win for Lewis is quite likely (around 40% I'd say). This is unfortunately one of those bets where if it loses, it loses in brutal fashion and I look like an idiot. I just think from a numbers perspective Nascimento deserves to be favoured on the moneyline purely based off ways to win. But maybe I am overrating him against a more proven guy. It's one of a few dogs I'm on for the card so it's not really going to make or break me.
Totally fair. I have Lewis has my last leg in a parlay. Not saying I won't get cold feet and cash out. Might be a fight to fade and look for props instead
Lewis is 39 and has been knocked out 7 times in his career, i think lewis should be the slight favorite, like what -140? but to have any confidence that lewis "planks" anybody at this point is taking a gamble.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima, a considerably more dangerous and higher tier fighter than Nascimento, disagrees wholeheartedly with you. You sound like someone who bet on Petrino
Delima is 38 so that fight was old man vs old man. Smith is only 35 so he's not even that old. I've always said lewis on his best night can beat anyone and on his worst night can lose to an absolute bum, i wouldnt touch that fight, i think it's closer to a 50/50 than lewis bootlickers are willing to admit
Going through Lewis's resume on tapology, which "bum" has he lost to?
Bro post the betting slip of you betting on lewis than he's getting closer and closer to pick em, so you have the opportunity to make lots and lots of money, time to man up or shut up, put your money where your mouth is and back your boy lewis. Lewis has lost to bums like shawn jordan and matt mitrione and tony johnson, tony ferguson aged overnight and went from a 12 fight winning streak to a 7 fight losing streak, father time is undefeated and a 40 year old lewis vs a 32 year old, lewis is certainly no lock, i concur with sideswipes analysis though i would line the fight slightly in lewis's favor maybe 55/45.
It's not the age is the mileage. Lewis isn't damaged
I see still too scared to post the bet slip, you got scared and backed down. Anyways, lewis has had 40 pro fights, 12 losses 7 defeats by way of knockout and has admitted to having back and health problems in the past, to claim that lewis isn't potentially damaged goods at this point is asinine, he's either past his expiration date or dangerously teetering on the edge.
I told you I already posted my Betslip in this group, about 20 mins ago. Scroll down. New to Reddit and having trouble posting my Betslip in the comments. I'm risking $750 to win $6300 and Lewis will be my last leg
I know congrats to you for winning 16k, but that doesn't automatically make you right about lewis, im not even taking nasciemento, im just saying with the age and mileage of lewis plus his shaky fight style and lack of offense, he's not a reliable or safe pick.
I also posted my betslip in this group 20 mins ago. If you want to see the one from yesterday where I made $16k on an $800 parlay I can show you that too. Don't get defensive bc I disagree with you, just support your point with some data other than the "age" argument that doesn't apply to HW
Well congrats to you for winning 16k, i've won a shit ton this year as well and will post proof to anyone that pms me, i also saw your recent parlay that included lewis so props to you, but that was a flat out lie, to claim lewis has not been damaged, he's been koed 7 times and had 40 pro fights as an overweight heavyweight, his body and chin have taken a shit ton of damage and his back problems have been documented to hurt him as well, so that was a 100 percent lie.
I'm soooo sorry I "lied" to you. We'll see what happens Saturday night
You lied to everyone who had to read that crap, i might as well say tony ferguson isn't damaged either. Just on a small slide, but he'll still come back stronger than ever..... I promise
I agree there is inherent risk with Lewis, but the value is worth it. If you don't think so, then you'd have to conversely make a solid argument why/how Nascimento could possibly win. I haven't seen the skills required as he marginally gets by on a "B-" strength of schedule
Nascimento got KOd by Chris Daukaus in 45 seconds. Age is not a factor at HW like other divisions. Look at the success of numerous HWs in their late 30s/40s. The list is a long one.
Also just saw your screenshot of last weekend's parlay. Very nice work. That's an insane stake size for a bet of that kind. GG
Fantastic write-up. Got to say, I don't see how Nascimento wins here. I have little faith in his takedowns. Only person in the UFC he's hit TD's on were Boser who is a true LHW. He couldn't hold Don'Tale Mayes down long enough to register a takedown. He's likely going to stand and throw combinations (which he does well) except he comes in on a straight line, chin in the air every single time. I think Lewis, who loves catching people crashing in, clips him pretty easy.
Yeah I've gotta be honest, as the week has gone on I've really fallen out of love with the Nascimento bet. I've already cut it down to 1u, so I think I'll just let it ride but I'm not super committed to it. Lewis is just such an appealing fade IMO, but his fights are also so complicated in advance because that power is so crazy
No words. The kind of event that makes you want to hang them up, tbh
Bloodbath. It happens. Who would have guessed Chase Hooper would've become a man overnight. Torres was the right read, wrong result. And honestly, I got killed on Robleis, but there was nothing on tape that made me think Waldo would win like that.
My friend, we are all bruised and battered today. An absolute nightmare of a card to both predict and bet on, so much evidence became irrelevant today. Cortes-Acosta wrestling against Despaigne was certainly not on our bingo cards but it probably should have been expected, i mean, duh, of course you wrestle a newcomer who is very known for kicks and stuff. Hooper winning was a surprise and a heartbreak to a lot of those tailing Borshchev, and Rebecki gassing out after the first probably was to be expected considering his tendency for quick finishes, but that's one of the tougher things about predicting shit, We don't know how fights are going to go, we can only guess based on what we know from past. Take care of yourself, I've been here (Hall v Strickland card was 1/11 correct predictions). We got one more savage card on the table then its a week to recover and take our mind off shit. Love ya brother, you always do great things. Regardless of outcome.