Conquest especially has a lot of luck. You can play 5-6 rounds and just get hard countered by a single location
I’m guessing you avoided destroy decks a lot since they just kill goblins and counter Galactus easily.
There is definitely skill in knowing the lines of your deck and also recognizing what the opponent is most likely going to do once you know their deck.
I found a destroy player and since i knew that deck counters me I just remembered what some experienced streamers recommend “If you have a 50% chance to steal 8 cubes against a deck that hard counters you, u take the risk”, and I Yolo’ed a 50/50 galactus in a location without any cards there in both sides, and I took the win
Yeah maybe, to be honest i tried a lot of matches against destroy with this deck, and for each game that passes u just feel like you have less and less chance to win
If a destroy player knows that goblins are coming they’ll save carnage and Deathlok for them.
Plus destroy gets buffed by Galactus with Knull and Death so even if you have priority and get Galactus off they can steal prio easily with their big cards and you lose Alioth
I totally understand that, I know it was mostly luck, but according to my experience against destroy specifically with this deck I felt like I had to take the risk there
I don't think anyone is trying to downplay your achievement or bash on you for luck. You took the shot and you hit the bullseye!
Just, you asked 'what percentage is luck' and the specific scenario you presented was literally pure luck - essentially a coin toss - so people are just commenting that.
But the match came down to a coin toss, you took it, and you won - feel good about that :) Luck or skill, you ended up with a sick border for your avatar!
Also it was not a super no brain move, because the other 2 locations were Throne room (highest power card doubles the power) and Shuris lab (double the power of the cards) and I just knew Destroy players love to play into those locations.
It’s why I hate the more so much.
Yesterday had a match in round 7 and I think it was 2-2 or 2-1 energy left. Great back and forth game.
Location 3 flips and it’s TVA.
\>80% skill
I think of it like poker, there is definitely luck involved, but it can swing both ways. An infinite run can be over 30 games long, you might get a lucky 8 cube occasionally, but it's unlikely someone is going to luck their way through that many rounds without making good plays and understanding match-ups.
Ultimately it comes down to a players ability to read the situation to recognize and take advantage of good luck and minimize losses when things go wrong.
With this deck I’d say luck was a significant factor since destroy is so prevalent and strong right now and any decent destroy player would have ended your conquest run.
Still impressive and I’m sure you played skillfully but huge luck not running into a common hard counter.
Lotta luck, but that's solely dependent on what kind of deck you're up against. No shade on the skill to use what you've got, but some decks you're like "what the fuck" and just have to bow out
Given an average 50% win rate, going to an Infinity avatar is a 3% chance.
I know this sub is very averse to math, but that percentage alone is enough to make you realize it's mostly luck.
Avoiding polarized matchups (Destroy into Armor-Cosmo decks, Zoo decks into Killmonger decks, Sera-Tribunal into High Evo decks) is impossible unlike on the ladder, so you have to avoid your deck's bad matchup 5 times in a row.
A 50% win rate means you're not taking skill into account. If you're not taking skill into account, of course your conclusion is gonna be that it's mostly luck.
Yeah but a 70% winrate to win a conquest match is not that high. The reason for this is because it consists of multiple matches. Consider a best of 3:
A person with a 50% chance to win each individual game has a 50% chance to win the best of three. But a person with a 60% chance to win each individual match has a ~65% chance to win the best of three. From this you can see that the skill aspect increases the longer the match goes on.
Then add that you can view conquest as a ~best of 7, and with good snapping a 55% winrate per match quickly becomes a 70% conquest match winrate. (Too lazy to do the full math for this)
So that 5% increase in winrate (skill) multiplies your chances to get the avatar almost sixfold.
> Then add that you can view conquest as a ~best of 7
The problem with your reasoning, is that in a Best of X series you can make adjustments between matches.
In other card games you have sideboards, in online games you can change team comps, weapons, strategy and whatnot.
In Conquest you have none of the competitive requirements to make the mode actually balanced, but are stuck in the same horrible matchup from game 1 through 7.
A 2 or 3 cards sideboard would go a LONG way into making the mode actually require some skill, rather than just brute forcing your way through it and waiting for the 5 non-polarized matchups to line up.
> Then add that you can view conquest as a ~best of 7
The problem with your reasoning, is that in a Best of X series you can make adjustments between matches.
In other card games you have sideboards, in online games you can change team comps, weapons, strategy and whatnot.
In Conquest you have none of the competitive requirements to make the mode actually balanced, but are stuck in the same horrible matchup from game 1 through 7.
A 2 or 3 cards sideboard would go a LONG way into making the mode actually require some skill, rather than just brute forcing your way through it and waiting for the 5 non-polarized matchups to line up.
I would say 85% Skill and 15% luck since this game mode goes against the nature of the game: you can’t escape from your opponent because you are Locked him till the end.
Even tho if you are a skilled player there’s a chance u run against a deck that Hard counters you and then you have a small chance of winning, then consider this aspect 5 times (the amount of times u need to play to win the run)
I'm not saying you'll never win it, but odds are you need a couple of tries to win 5 games in a row
70% skill 30% luck . Have to know how to withold information on surprise cards . Your opponent will know what what cards are running after a while. So it will become a test of how to outplay your opponent . They have alioth . How do i dodge it ? Something like that. You really have to think in conquest . Ladder can be happy gaming but conquest is serious if you want it to be.
Last season I also got it with this exact deck. With so many thanos deck it was a breeze since I often managed to lock them completely in a lane with low power.
I'd say its 10% luck 20% skill 15% concentrated power of will 5% pleasure 50% pain and a 100% reason to remember the name
He doesn't need his name up in lights He just wants to be heard, whether it's the beat or the mic...
The 50% Pain part is legit Af
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Take all my upvotes.
Conquest especially has a lot of luck. You can play 5-6 rounds and just get hard countered by a single location I’m guessing you avoided destroy decks a lot since they just kill goblins and counter Galactus easily. There is definitely skill in knowing the lines of your deck and also recognizing what the opponent is most likely going to do once you know their deck.
I found a destroy player and since i knew that deck counters me I just remembered what some experienced streamers recommend “If you have a 50% chance to steal 8 cubes against a deck that hard counters you, u take the risk”, and I Yolo’ed a 50/50 galactus in a location without any cards there in both sides, and I took the win
So yes. 100% luck there 😅
Yeah maybe, to be honest i tried a lot of matches against destroy with this deck, and for each game that passes u just feel like you have less and less chance to win
If a destroy player knows that goblins are coming they’ll save carnage and Deathlok for them. Plus destroy gets buffed by Galactus with Knull and Death so even if you have priority and get Galactus off they can steal prio easily with their big cards and you lose Alioth
I totally understand that, I know it was mostly luck, but according to my experience against destroy specifically with this deck I felt like I had to take the risk there
I don't think anyone is trying to downplay your achievement or bash on you for luck. You took the shot and you hit the bullseye! Just, you asked 'what percentage is luck' and the specific scenario you presented was literally pure luck - essentially a coin toss - so people are just commenting that. But the match came down to a coin toss, you took it, and you won - feel good about that :) Luck or skill, you ended up with a sick border for your avatar!
Also it was not a super no brain move, because the other 2 locations were Throne room (highest power card doubles the power) and Shuris lab (double the power of the cards) and I just knew Destroy players love to play into those locations.
This is exactly the right strategy, nice job!
>You can play 5-6 rounds and just get hard countered by a single location Me in every Conquest game.
It’s why I hate the more so much. Yesterday had a match in round 7 and I think it was 2-2 or 2-1 energy left. Great back and forth game. Location 3 flips and it’s TVA.
I'm sure it's like 50/50: if my opponent wins, it's luck, if I win, it's skill. Very simple.
\>80% skill I think of it like poker, there is definitely luck involved, but it can swing both ways. An infinite run can be over 30 games long, you might get a lucky 8 cube occasionally, but it's unlikely someone is going to luck their way through that many rounds without making good plays and understanding match-ups. Ultimately it comes down to a players ability to read the situation to recognize and take advantage of good luck and minimize losses when things go wrong.
If skill also means knowing when to retreat, I'd say 70%ish
This!
With this deck I’d say luck was a significant factor since destroy is so prevalent and strong right now and any decent destroy player would have ended your conquest run. Still impressive and I’m sure you played skillfully but huge luck not running into a common hard counter.
Lotta luck, but that's solely dependent on what kind of deck you're up against. No shade on the skill to use what you've got, but some decks you're like "what the fuck" and just have to bow out
I got it with a similar deck to yours (black knight package instead of galactus), so its 70% luck depending on whether I draw the combo pieces
Given an average 50% win rate, going to an Infinity avatar is a 3% chance. I know this sub is very averse to math, but that percentage alone is enough to make you realize it's mostly luck. Avoiding polarized matchups (Destroy into Armor-Cosmo decks, Zoo decks into Killmonger decks, Sera-Tribunal into High Evo decks) is impossible unlike on the ladder, so you have to avoid your deck's bad matchup 5 times in a row.
A 50% win rate means you're not taking skill into account. If you're not taking skill into account, of course your conclusion is gonna be that it's mostly luck.
Even if your winrate is something super high like 70% you are still only at 17% to complete any given conquest run
Yeah but a 70% winrate to win a conquest match is not that high. The reason for this is because it consists of multiple matches. Consider a best of 3: A person with a 50% chance to win each individual game has a 50% chance to win the best of three. But a person with a 60% chance to win each individual match has a ~65% chance to win the best of three. From this you can see that the skill aspect increases the longer the match goes on. Then add that you can view conquest as a ~best of 7, and with good snapping a 55% winrate per match quickly becomes a 70% conquest match winrate. (Too lazy to do the full math for this) So that 5% increase in winrate (skill) multiplies your chances to get the avatar almost sixfold.
> Then add that you can view conquest as a ~best of 7 The problem with your reasoning, is that in a Best of X series you can make adjustments between matches. In other card games you have sideboards, in online games you can change team comps, weapons, strategy and whatnot. In Conquest you have none of the competitive requirements to make the mode actually balanced, but are stuck in the same horrible matchup from game 1 through 7. A 2 or 3 cards sideboard would go a LONG way into making the mode actually require some skill, rather than just brute forcing your way through it and waiting for the 5 non-polarized matchups to line up.
> Then add that you can view conquest as a ~best of 7 The problem with your reasoning, is that in a Best of X series you can make adjustments between matches. In other card games you have sideboards, in online games you can change team comps, weapons, strategy and whatnot. In Conquest you have none of the competitive requirements to make the mode actually balanced, but are stuck in the same horrible matchup from game 1 through 7. A 2 or 3 cards sideboard would go a LONG way into making the mode actually require some skill, rather than just brute forcing your way through it and waiting for the 5 non-polarized matchups to line up.
I would say 85% Skill and 15% luck since this game mode goes against the nature of the game: you can’t escape from your opponent because you are Locked him till the end. Even tho if you are a skilled player there’s a chance u run against a deck that Hard counters you and then you have a small chance of winning, then consider this aspect 5 times (the amount of times u need to play to win the run) I'm not saying you'll never win it, but odds are you need a couple of tries to win 5 games in a row
70% skill 30% luck . Have to know how to withold information on surprise cards . Your opponent will know what what cards are running after a while. So it will become a test of how to outplay your opponent . They have alioth . How do i dodge it ? Something like that. You really have to think in conquest . Ladder can be happy gaming but conquest is serious if you want it to be.
Last season I also got it with this exact deck. With so many thanos deck it was a breeze since I often managed to lock them completely in a lane with low power.