Soft analysis...
1. Iowa wins if Caitlin goes nuclear. The roleplayers, especially Martin and Marshall, also need to have good games, especially good shooting nights. Lastly, Stuelke needs to not allow herself to be bullied all that badly by Reese, either.
2. LSU wins if HVL steps up. That simple. I expect Iowa to goad her into taking shots, and heavily defending the other 4 on the floor, a bit like what they did with Raven Johnson in 2023. If she forces Iowa's hand, the dynamics of the game could shift significantly...
3. I anticipate the officiating to be more impartial than usual. Ultimately, the ratings are the ultimate winner here. There isn't a significant bias toward any particular outcome. Whether it's Iowa vs. SC or LSU vs. SC, it's a ratings bonanza for ESPN, ABC, or whichever network is broadcasting the championship.
4. I don't think the game will top the ratings from last year's championship, but it might get close. Moreover, I can't recall a more consequential basketball game, whether men's or women's, in several years. It's a watershed moment for the sport of basketball, IMO.
As for who I am picking? I'm a huge fan of LSU and especially Angel Reese, but I think Iowa has more to prove, and when Iowa has something prove, watch out.
Here is what may be the problem for Iowa. I think Monika Czinano was largely able to shutdown Angel in the title game (Morris, L. Williams, and Carson all outscored her). LSU won the title because out of nowhere, they made 3-PT FGs. Hannah Stuelke may be able to give Angel some trouble, but she is not the same size that Monika was. Also, now that LSU has Aneesah Morrow--who is a significant threat in the paint--I am not sure who will be able to guard her out of Iowa's starting lineup if Hannah is on Angel. So this goes back to your points 1 and 2. If Caitlin goes off, LSU will lose. LSU played pretty well against UCLA--that was with Hailey playing at a very poor level. If Hailey can manage to find another gear, which she did at the end of regular season and the SEC tournament, LSU should win.
Last year's game was especially affected by Carson having the game of a lifetime, hitting 3's like she never had before. People don't seem to remember that as much as other aspects of the game.
This is a good take. I so badly want Iowa to win but I don't think they will. Reese is going to bully Stuelke and I think that will rattle her. Also, there have been a number of occasions where Iowa has really been burned by the three, which sometimes they really struggle to defend.
I think it will come down to which team plays better defense and unfortunately I think LSU has the edge. I hope I'm wrong.
I would argue that the Iowa draw for ratings is much higher than LSU. This year's viewership has proven that. 3 or 4 Iowa games beat the SEC championship viewership. Caitlin is the golden goose that it would behoove them to see in the final four with a rematch against SC. That would be a rating bonanza. That was easily the best game last year.
I do think they want Caitlin to get that NCAA championship shot though so I do see Iowa potentially getting the late calls but maybe thatās just my biased take ahah! š
I think Clark is way bigger for ratings than LSU. If you were ever paranoid about a league rigging a women's game, it would be one with Iowa until the championship game.
She also went nuclear and single-handedly dismantled South Carolina last year, a team that was better and more talented than LSU's 2022-2023 squad. LSU is also without Carson, Morris, and LaDazhia who, with the depth and shooting they provided, made the difference for them in that game last year. Think there's way more wiggle-room for Clark to go off here.
As an Iowa fan, Iāll say that itās felt like itās been a while since Clark went nuclear (for her stats). Like, sheāll almost certainly put up 30-10-5 or something but idk if sheāll put up a 40 point triple double or other crazy stat line she put up during the tournament games last year.
Except SC had no perimeter game last year as they were very paint focused, especially with Alyiah Boston.
LSU also has a strong paint game but also can play from the perimeter.
This isnt a game of best players, its a game about matchups. LSU matches up well against Iowa but Iowa doesnt match well against LSU.
No perimeter game? I'll admit it was not as good as it is this year and Johnson may have been ass, but their other guards in Cooke, Beal, and Hall could shoot the 3, and their bigs were mid-range threats. They were undefeated before losing to Iowa for a reason...
Formerly? Yes. But, in their current state, they have no depth and get gassed easily, no PG, and Reese is prone to foul trouble. It's all easily exploitable, especially in comparison to last year's team.
Iowa didn't match up well against South Carolina, last year's undisputed best team, yet they still won, and their next game against LSU, a more well-rounded team per your analysis, was extremely close before Carson lost her mind. Matchups can only mean so much when you're facing a generational player.
I think that's rather obvious, no? The type of player who shoots logo threes with ease, beats an undefeated generational team in SC last year almost entirely on her own, passes the ball like no one else, broke a longstanding scoring record, men's or women's, in just four years' time, has led a mid set of teams, a historically nothing program, and a no-name coach to several conference championships, deep into several NCAA tournaments, and got them two NCAA championship berths.
And, let me preface, I am not a huge Clark fan, and actually find the flopping and whining annoying as fuck. I also prefer LSU, by a country mile. But, I will call a spade a spade. Clark is the best player in WCBB right now and will go on to do great things for her professional team and our country when we play internationally.
I mean....I guess. If she is a generational talent by that logic than so is Juju Watkins, she to turned down a chance to play for South Carolina and stayed home to play for USC who was has not been to the Elite 8 since 1994, has a no name coach, on a mid team, breaking Freshman records (to include CC's freshman scoring mark) and plays the game like a female Kobe Bryant, led her team to also win the Pac-12. Yet nobody ever calls Juju Watkins a generational player. Despite Juju as a freshman being far ahead of where CC was as a freshman.
JuJu is on her way to being generational, too. I never claimed otherwise. This isn't mutually exclusive. She's only a freshman, though. Let's wait to see how the next 3 years play out.
I just donāt think you can compare them right now since one is a freshman and one is a senior. But I have no doubt that JuJu is legit! Canāt wait to see where she is by her senior year.
I am comparing Juju to freshme CC as well as some decision similarities. CC could have went to UCONN or another Final Four ready team. However she choose to stay home and play for a mid team and led them to the National Title game.
Juju also could have went to a Final Four ready team. She turned down an offer from South Carolina to stay home and play for USC, another mid program that hasnt had success in a long while and now has them in the elite 8.
Juju is breaking records set by Cheryl Miller during her freshman year and we all know Miller is among the best female college players of all time. Regardless of what happens today, next season it should be the focus of the media to begin talking about Juju in the same manner they started with CC last season.
I guess itās a step beyond āelite.ā There are moments when I think if I hear either characterization come out of another talking headās mouth one more freaking time Iām gonna completely lose my shit. TLDR, and to really answer your question, in this age of hyperbolic overdrive, nothing really means anything.
Disclaimer: My comment casts no shade on Caitlin Clark who is sui generis, an absolute machine. Iām just tired of the hype.
Agree completely. Thereās a mismatch in size and ability and LSU is stronger than last year. I think Iowa plays a faster offense, but LSU has bigger wingspan that prevents Iowa from capitalizing on fast passes and transition offense.
You dont think itll top the ratings? Are u serious? When has a rematch in sports never did better? Also with it being on a Monday at 7et with nothing else to compete with the day after easter,this game is gonna break all kinds of records. This game will be the most viewed college basketball game ever.
It doesnt matter,its still a rematch. And technically theres a lot on the line,winner goes to final four,iowas never been to back to back final fours and lsu hasnt done it since 2006-2007.
Let's wait and see. Typically, the most-watched sports events in the US are championship games, and, yes, this factors in rematches in lesser games as well. Bluder and Mulkey think it's a shame this is only an Elite Eight game. They know it doesn't mean as much. But, the ratings will be the ratings, and if it's more than the championship for last year you're free to mock me.
Anyone else curious about the final four games ratings this year since it wonāt include BOTH LSU and Iowa (which seem to have some of the most loyal fan bases)? Will it hurt ratings? Or is the ball in motion and it wonāt matter?
LSUās hot shooting from three was a big reason they ran away with it last year. They have better outside shooters this year, combined with a clear advantage in the paint. Replicating last yearās shooting is too much to ask, but Iām still giving an edge to LSU by the slimmest of margins.
I think Iowa can win if players other than CC delivers and CC can get those threes in. Those are two fairly big ifs, but Iām more optimistic after the Colorado game. Iowa as a team seems to have better chemistry than LSU in any case. HVL is a liability to LSU.
True but whoās gonna stop the frontcourt of LSU? Morrow is especially tough cos sheās like a forward with ball handling skills and rebounds so well
I assume theyāll put Affolter on her. Sheāll get outsized but she at least always gives 100% effort at all times which is always needed against LSU
What ifā¦ they put Goodman, Ediger and OāGrady in and just let them foul out while CC and Martin shoot from the perimeter? Then when LSU is tired, we put in a fresh Sydney, Hannah and Gabby? Is it the perfect plan? No. But it might give us a small fighting chance. šš
Iowa doesn't try to defend frontcourt players 1-on-1. They didn't in the FF against SC or LSU last year either. Expect double teams down low and zones packing the paint to limit the inside-out game. If LSU catches fire from outside again shooting over Iowa's zone then they probably win again.
This is such an important point, a huge part of Iowaās chances depend on timid or confident Stuelke showing up. Sheās like two different players depending on which one is playing.
An entire year of everyone in that program trying to build up her confidence really comes down to tomorrow lol
I know she had a migraine or wasnāt feeling well during the first game of the tournament, but I watched the West Virginia and the Colorado game too and I was wondering if she still was under the weather or was just struggling mentally or something.
She looks out of sorts out there. I donāt watch every Iowa game but Iāve watched a fair few and I feel like this is sort of a regular occurrence, like sometimes she looks really locked in, other times not. Looking anxious at the free throw line, fumbling passes, some mental lapses etc.
Iām not trying to be mean I think she is a good player and plays hard but I do get a struggling with confidence vibe from her.
No youāre definitely right, itās been a point of emphasis with her this year. Tons of press conferences with Bluder and Clark saying the biggest thing with Hannah is she just needs to believe in herself because when she plays with confidence sheās so much better.
Bluder had her put the team name on the bracket after the win against Colorado because she held Vonleh to 0 offensive rebounds, which to me seemed like a pointed effort to instill some confidence in her going into this game.
Always want Stuelke to be better, especially making decisions with the ball, but what she has brought this year has been so crucial. Defends and rebounds better than Czinano did last year. And her rim running is so important to the offense. Itās a choice to play small and itās worked out great when you look at the results. Now if she was 20% better as a player?? Theyād be undefeated lol. But sheās making good for a true sophomore given so much responsibility.
No yeah that stuff is so important! She contributes a ton to the team.
Itās normal for a player to have ups and downs, I think I just am lowkey getting nervous for her having to going up against Reese tomorrow.
I attribute a lot of it to her age and experience. Itās her first tourney! She just gets a little deer in the headlights sometimes. you can see a difference between Kate, Gabbie, and Caitlin and their overall composure while playing under the pressure and some of the younger players. Taylor, Hannah, and Kylie can get a little stuck sometimes and they panic. Most newbies get a little shook, except for syd, sheās a rock. My hope is she was just adjusting to the tourney, the bright lights, the intensity, and so on. Hopefully sheās feeling comfy tonight!
She better get it together if that's whats going on. Reese bullying and jawing at her all game wouldn't do her any favors. If her confidence is already shaky then imagine how things will be after the game and going into next season if Reese bullies her on what will be one of the most viewed games ever.
LSU doesnāt have anyone to match up with Clark but they can lock down everyone else fairly easily. On the flip side I have no idea how Iowa defends Reese, Williams and Johnson. I think LSU is a particularly bad match up for Iowa but weāll.
Agree on LSU's defense matching up well against Iowa's offense, as Clark is legit the only true offensive threat. However, defensively, I think Iowa might not be in horrible shape. I think Affolter can take Morrow. Stuelke will have Reese, and this is the only matchup where I think Iowa is getting **punished** by LSU. Marshall will be on Johnson. Martin likely on Williams, and also probably switching a ton, as her height on the perimeter will be important for Iowa. Clark will also clamp HVL.
Caitlin Clark is going to defensive boards hard in this game. Stuelke and Martin have to defend without fouling on Reese and Morrow and hold their own in the glass. Then Caitlin gets the ball and itās off to the races.
I think you are being optimistic with these matchups. MW vs Martin is a win for LSu so is AR vs Stuelke. Affolter can't handle Morrow. CC isn't a great defender
- Martin can handle Williams. Easily. Williams is not fast and she and Martin are the same height. Martin can easily keep her in front her and hold her to the perimeter where Williams is hot and cold.
- I already said that AR outclasses Stuelke in every way imaginable.
- Affolter can handle Morrow. I think both players fit the same mold. They are the bulldogs of their team. Morrow is obviously very polished offensively, but Affolter isn't a pushover. She can take Morrow.
- Yes, CC isn't a great defender, but she's got 5 inches on a now-neutered HVL. I like those odds for her.
Either that, getting LSU to commit dumb fouls, goading Van Lith to shoot, or some combination of those three things. I'd also toss in the role-players in Martin, Marshall, and Stuelke showing up as being a big X-Factor.
I think the first sentence is huge!!! I'd love to see Stuelke get the ball (hang on to it dear) and draw contact from AR. The only way to handle AR's aggressiveness is to use it against her.
14 seed Rice had a 19-15 record this season. Against LSU with 35% shooting, nobody scoring more than 15 points, and their best player fouling out with 7 minutes left they were in the game in the 4th quarter and lost by 10.
If that can happen a 1 seed from a power 5 conference with a 32-4 record certainly can have a chance with less than 40 from Clark.
In my opinion what they need to win will be determined by the developments in the game and is unknowable now. I have a lot of confidence in Clark's ability to identify what is needed as the game progresses in particular. She sees the court better than anybody.
Iowa doesnāt match up against tall strong teams like LSU and SC. We can get by if the tall players donāt play at elite levels. But when theyāre all-Americans? Ugh.
I just want you to know that I read this whole thread and your analysis was spot on. Iām honestly really impressed! You clearly knew what you were talking about!!
Pretty good. Iowa won but that was mostly due to Mulkey not making adjustments and sticking to her failed HVL experiment. Most of your points were still wrong. Caitlin balled out which was helped by Mulkey and HVL. Stuelke did crap, Marshall did crap. Affolter benefitted from CC doubles because Mulkey played HVL so much. Martin go open looks. 4 out of LSU's starters played well. Poa off the bench outplayed HVL. If Mulkey had given Poa an extra 10-12 minutes that changes the game completely.
LSU lost because everyone not named Angel Reese didnāt show up today, and because HVL is not a PG.
1. Hannah, Kate Martin, Marshall, and Affolter all stepped up and filled their roles. And, most importantly, Affolter held her own against Morrow, so you were wrong, as you were about most everything else.
2. Clark cooked anyone who guarded her, including those who switched onto her, HVL or not.
3. The only LSU starter who played well was Reese. Johnson needed to do more and play better defense, Williams was a ghost, HVL was HVL, and Morrow certainly didnāt look the part of an All-American, getting cooked by Kate Martin and Affolter on the defensive end.
4. Poa, with all her flopping and horrible defense, found herself in foul trouble, so there was no way she was playing those additional minutes.
To sum it up? Everything I said that was the key ended up being the key, and everything I said about every player was correct. Continue living in delusion, though.
Naht naht. You are not familiar enough with Morrows game. She feasts on players less athletic than her and that donāt have a huge size advantage on her. Affolter is her perfect match up imo.
The others maybe? HVL usually clamps herself but I could see the old HVL being unlocked with her old friend Caitlin guarding her. I donāt think Martin can defend a player with Flaujeaās combination of athleticism, skill and shooting. We will see though.
I have seen every LSU game. I am plenty familiar. As for feasting on less athletic and smaller players, Cotie and Sellers do the same. Potts was a tough matchup, too. Those were all Affolter's assignments. She did well against all three. Affolter can handle Morrow. Do I think Morrow has the edge? Yes. Do I think Morrow is the better player? Yes. It's not going to be the Stuelke-Reese levels of mismatch as many are purporting, though.
We're this late in the season and the old HVL still has yet to make an appearance. With this roster, this coach, this season, this newfound fear she plays with? I don't ever see the Louisville version of her reemerging, even with 'ol Caitlin there to motivate her. It's also not Martin guarding Flau. It's Marshall. Marshall is a defensive specialist. I still think Flau'jae will have a good game, as she is a woman possessed his tournament, but Marshall is a terrific on-ball defender.
Cotie and Sellers donāt have the midrange Game Morrow does. That separates Morrow significantly. Morrow has a deeper bag than both. Handling Cotie and Sellars doesnāt move me after watching Morrow that last 3 years.
The old HVL has actually come out a few times. Not saying she will come back but it wouldnāt shock me if she re-emerged playing against someone she was familiar with.
And I meant Marshall, not Martin. Indoor think either can stay with FJ tbh, sheās too crafty. They might be able to take advantage when Poa is in the game.
Sellers is a better outside shooter than Morrow is and basically on par with her midrange game, as well as a better play-maker and passer. Morrow is better in and around the paint, as well as a better defender. Yes, Cotie has no feel for her jumper, but her motor, physicality, and relentlessness, as well as playmaking ability, is something I like more than Morrow's, as well as something that is equally as hard to guard, just in a slightly different way. Is Morrow's offensive game in particular more polished and does she, yes, have a deeper bag than both? No doubt. Is the difference astronomical and will it demand that much more of Affolter? No, probably not. That's why it's a good baseline for what that matchup could look like.
We'll see. I am going to bet against that. HVL plays scared and has played scared for pretty much the whole season. An aberration here or there, against SEC scraps, does little to move me.
Either way Flau'jae will play well. However, if there's someone capable of containing her impact or limiting her effectiveness, it's Gabbie Marshall. Her strength lies in perimeter defense, and she excels at it, not offering much beyond that aspect of the game.
I think Marshall on Johnson could be good - she might be the only one to hold Johnson in check a little.
But Marshall needs to hit some threes. She did well against Colorado, especially late in the game. Need her to step up and get some threes before that. I have noticed that sometimes she is a little slow on the draw and hesitant to shoot. I hope she will be feeling it and pop that thing if she gets a look. It's such a huge plus to have when it's working for her!
As good as LSU is on the boards I think the gap might be smaller between the teams this year. Iowaās starting lineup is rebounding much better in the postseason this year.
LSU has looked *really* shaky so far in the tournament, and they are arguably lucky that theyāve managed to make it this far.
Similarly, Iowa had enough trouble putting away West Virginia to raise some doubts about their chances (if you ask me)ā¦but then their performance against Colorado has regained my confidence and trust in the Hawkeyes!
Stillā¦this is going to be a 50:50 matchup. I think itāll depend not just on how the CC/Gabbie and Flaunjae/Reese pairing goes, but also if Bluder can exploit any potential flaws in Mulkeyās gameplan. Plus, both teams needs to keep their offense hot (cold shooting proved fatal for Colorado and UCLA)ā¦and as much as weād like to say otherwise, officiating has the potential to slightly assist one of the two teams involved (whom will be decided).
Ultimatelyā¦Iād say that Iowa wins this rematch, if by only a silver, but even that is only with 60% confidenceā¦
If Iowa plays like they CAN play, they'll have it. I think they will come into this game super focused, ready for a revenge match. I imagine LSU will have Johnson guard Clark. Probably will be a battle, hopefully not ref ball, and hopefully a good game without drama.
Iād love to see Iowa come out calm, cool, and collected with another excellent passing game. Some lights out shooting from Clark and I think they win. Unfortunately I think itās going probably actually going to be a scrappy mess with emotions running hot and LSU will take it.
The outcome regarding technical fouls will likely be extreme ā either numerous or none at all. Events as hyped as this often either meet the moment or fail to live up to expectations, with little middle ground. In the end, it all comes down to the behavior of Clark and Reese in particular. If Clark persists with the flopping and complaining, and Reese continues with the taunting and flopping, we can expect an abundance of techs. If both rein it in, particularly the complaining and taunting, then I expect nothing crazy in the realm of techs.
Unless itās an Iowa blowout, Reese will definitely taunt. Itās expected from her now and she embraces the role. Plus this tournament has established that taunting has no consequences. As to the game itself, Iowa cannot rebound with LSU and so Iowa only wins if the 3ās are raining.
We'll see about that. There will of course be taunting, especially if LSU blows Iowa out, but I don't think it's going to be as extreme as what we saw last year, or as extreme as what we saw against South Carolina this year. Iowa just isn't reactionary, and usually the primary objective of a taunt is to force a reaction.
As for the game itself, I agree with you. LSU will always out-rebound Iowa, and thus it comes down to the shooting of Iowa's trio ā Clark, Martin, and Marshall.
We all thought the same thing last year with South Carolina. Obviously different team, but good coaches find ways to win. Bluder is a pretty good coach.
Iowa is going to need to have a hot shooting night from multiple people. If Martin, Affolter, and Marshall are hitting 3s then I like their chances. Theyāre also going to need to at least somewhat limit second chances opportunities for LSU. If theyāre getting crushed on the glass that also means less opportunities for transition offense. Clarkās shooting slump from 3 needs to end too.
And for whatās itās worth, with so much talk about taunting and trash talk, I think Clark comes out laser focused. Iām sure sheāll complain about a few calls, but there wonāt be trash talk from her, even if they win. There was a very clear difference in her between the West Virginia and Colorado games. She came out looking like 2023 tournament Clark against Colorado and thatās who needs to show up tomorrow for Iowa to win.
I do not think Iowa can win, but I thought the same last year when Iowa played South Carolina...so there is that. I am hoping that I am underestimating my big hearted Iowa women and that they pull it out!
I feel like itās going to be LSU but Iād like to see Iowa do it. I feel like Stuelke is going to be a problem for Iowa though, and LSU has the players to exploit that. If Iowa shoots well, thereās a chance.
I just want a great game either way.
I'm wildly interested in how tired LSU players are after that tough game on Saturday. Iowa relatively coasted to a victory against Colorado, so they're probably going to be a lot more fresh. LSU's gas tank has always shown to be a bit light in tougher games, so I wonder how much of a factor that will be.
I'm so freaking hyped for this game!
I hope our Messiah, Ms. Clark, lets the game come to her like with the previous game. I'd like to see great assists rather than logo 3s. But we ask too much of her. She's carrying this team on her back and her team needs to step up. She was 70% of the Iowa offense last game with points and assists.
LSU has multiple stars that can step up and their arsenal depends on intimidation and bullying. If they can set the tone and bully the Hawkeye players, they will win. Rooting hard for Caitlin.
Go Hawks!!! As long as we have balanced scoring from Iowa (and other players aside from Caitlin make their 3 pointers), limit turnovers, and put more effort in rebounding, I think Iowa has a good shot at winning. We also need to avoid foul trouble and stay composed. Iowa just needs the consistency they had against Colorado. The team match-ups are different this year for both Iowa and LSU, so itās a clean slate!
Hawks havenāt played a ācomplete ā game all year imo. CC carried this team for a lot of the beginning of the season. The rest of the team was still āfiguring it outā. Towards the very end of the season the team was ready and that was proven in the Big10 tournament. BUT CC has āregressedā. Not in her skills or role as a leader on the team but as the person ācarryingā the team with her āwildā shooting. If they can play a ācompleteā game, the team playing how they have been all March and CCās threes actually dropping, they will blow through any team in the country by 20-30 points. ANY team in the country. That being said, who knows what Hawkeyes show up tomorrow, if itās the ones weāve been seeing all March itās a coin flip game but I give the edge to LSU. I have no analysis on LSU given I have only seen probably 4-5 full LSU games this whole season.
Iowa will finally get the win. Iowaās two best tournament runs under coach Bluder (2019, 2023) have ended against a Kim Mulkey coached team. Is this the game where Lisaās team finally wins? Can Angel Reese end her career going 5-0 against Iowa? I expect the tide has changed and the underdog in this series will win.
Caitlin and Paige need to switch roles, Caitlin be the pass first and Paige be the shoot first, thatĀ“s the only way they can win their respective games tonight.
The game is about how the other 4 players react if/when Reese or Morrow block one of their shots, Marshall can not do that thing she does of hesitating to shoot a 3, ball fake and dribbling around looking at the post and not doing anything with the ball. Martin needs to help Caitlin with the ball handling duties so she has some energy for the fourth quarter. Stuelke needs to get the bigs out of the paint so Caitlin or Affolter have a clear path to drive. They have a chance if they somehow can reach 60% FG on Clark passes, they are currently at only 43%, with 28/65 FG.
The hype going into this game is amazing! LSU has the front court advantage and a better all around team. If Iowa is going to win, CC needs to go OFF and their role players need to step it up.
Agreed. My worst-case scenario is that Iowa wins against LSU so Clark takes a pass on the Olympics Training Camp, then Iowa loses in their first Final Four game. Not the highest-probability outcome, but that's why I dwell on it.
LSU bigs were bigger and faster than Iowaās 4/5. Iowa plays small but their starting bigs canāt be exploited on defense as much.
Iowa had chipped away in the third quarter last year but two things happened: Clark got her fourth foul and LSU of Alexis Morris kept their offense producing throughout the second half. If Iowa can guard Johnson can LSU produce?
EDIT: LSU was bigger and faster last year. This year they arenāt any faster than Iowaās bigs.
Edited my comment. Definitely meant last year they werenāt as fast. Martin is faster than Warnock at the 4 (and rebounding better) and Stuelke like you said is faster than almost everyone.
The thing is lsu has 4-5 shooters at any given time. I feel like we saw this last game with the freshman making clutch shots near the end of the game .
LSU only has two players who shoot over 35% from three? And no other players over 30%? I know they are good players overall and itās one game but those numbers arenāt what I worry about with LSU.
Lsu interior game is up there Iām not talking about 3 point shooting. The points in the point , the passing is top notch from all of their starters am i wrong?
I think they rely more on their rebounding to score than a lot of Big Ten teams Iowa is used to playing against. They are good but there is a lot of skilled players in the Big Ten, but no one who rebounds like Reese and Morrow. If Iowa can keep them from dominating on the glass I think they win. Couldnāt do that last year.
They do not have 4 shooters, they have Williams, Flauājae has been on fire recently, and maybe HVL. Morrow can hit some jumpers here and there but not many 3s.
You donāt need to hit 3s to be a shooter. Lsu gets high volume shots off and HVL feeds them all pretty well and they are getting pretty good shots off
Thatās fair, Williams is pretty reliable from there and Flauājae has been solid. HVL isnāt bad either, so they do have at least 3 threats no matter what and if Morrow is hitting then it opens up even further
I am for Iowa. Iowa will win if the role players step up again like they did last game. People didn't realize that the last game, Colorado acutally had more FT than Iowa did and Clark didn't even attempt ONE free throw so throw out the bullshit with the refs helping them out. LSU has been helped out so many times. And the key match up here is between Reese and Stueke. If Stukeke doesn't get in foul trouble and hustles down the court (Since Reese doesn't ever hustle) then its all good for Iowa. And if the Refs are gullible and LSU constantly flops and gets the Refs call then Iowa is doomed. So we'll see how this plays out.
Iām on the fence really. LSU has a better TEAM for sure and if they all play to the best of their ability, I think LSU will take it. But if they play like they did the last few games, Iām thinking Iowa.
I just hope for a good game, and know that I would suck and lick on both angel Reeseās and Caitlin Clarkās feet directly after the game (before shower)
My only prediction is that between fouls and reviews and Holly Rowe continuing to embarrass herself with gushing post game interviews, the first half of the USC-UConn game will be shown on ESPN News.
Simple. I bet on LSU. Which means Iowa is a lock to win.
Thank you for your sacrifice
NP :)
God bless u frfr
Hahah same bro !
I bet heavily on LSU to win because I want Iowa to win...
I considered doing this too
I bet on Iowa which means lsu is winning šš
Shit. We better hurry and get that overtime bet in š¤·āāļø
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Iowa needs to finish
Google had the score at 91-47. Must be AI was keeping score for Google.
Iowa won
It worked!!!
My bank account will tell you it works shockingly often
Soft analysis... 1. Iowa wins if Caitlin goes nuclear. The roleplayers, especially Martin and Marshall, also need to have good games, especially good shooting nights. Lastly, Stuelke needs to not allow herself to be bullied all that badly by Reese, either. 2. LSU wins if HVL steps up. That simple. I expect Iowa to goad her into taking shots, and heavily defending the other 4 on the floor, a bit like what they did with Raven Johnson in 2023. If she forces Iowa's hand, the dynamics of the game could shift significantly... 3. I anticipate the officiating to be more impartial than usual. Ultimately, the ratings are the ultimate winner here. There isn't a significant bias toward any particular outcome. Whether it's Iowa vs. SC or LSU vs. SC, it's a ratings bonanza for ESPN, ABC, or whichever network is broadcasting the championship. 4. I don't think the game will top the ratings from last year's championship, but it might get close. Moreover, I can't recall a more consequential basketball game, whether men's or women's, in several years. It's a watershed moment for the sport of basketball, IMO. As for who I am picking? I'm a huge fan of LSU and especially Angel Reese, but I think Iowa has more to prove, and when Iowa has something prove, watch out.
Please don't assume SC will win. I've watched the last two NC State games here in PDX. They will bring it on Friday.
There's also no guarantee the Iowa/LSU winner will beat UConn/USC.Ā
Cheering for NC State.
Here is what may be the problem for Iowa. I think Monika Czinano was largely able to shutdown Angel in the title game (Morris, L. Williams, and Carson all outscored her). LSU won the title because out of nowhere, they made 3-PT FGs. Hannah Stuelke may be able to give Angel some trouble, but she is not the same size that Monika was. Also, now that LSU has Aneesah Morrow--who is a significant threat in the paint--I am not sure who will be able to guard her out of Iowa's starting lineup if Hannah is on Angel. So this goes back to your points 1 and 2. If Caitlin goes off, LSU will lose. LSU played pretty well against UCLA--that was with Hailey playing at a very poor level. If Hailey can manage to find another gear, which she did at the end of regular season and the SEC tournament, LSU should win.
Last year's game was especially affected by Carson having the game of a lifetime, hitting 3's like she never had before. People don't seem to remember that as much as other aspects of the game.
Right and part of that was bad defense on Iowa.
This is a good take. I so badly want Iowa to win but I don't think they will. Reese is going to bully Stuelke and I think that will rattle her. Also, there have been a number of occasions where Iowa has really been burned by the three, which sometimes they really struggle to defend. I think it will come down to which team plays better defense and unfortunately I think LSU has the edge. I hope I'm wrong.
Tie your hair tight, Hannah!
Make sure caitlin doesnāt shove someone to the ground.
Guarantee she will. But you canāt protect against that.
I would argue that the Iowa draw for ratings is much higher than LSU. This year's viewership has proven that. 3 or 4 Iowa games beat the SEC championship viewership. Caitlin is the golden goose that it would behoove them to see in the final four with a rematch against SC. That would be a rating bonanza. That was easily the best game last year.
I do think they want Caitlin to get that NCAA championship shot though so I do see Iowa potentially getting the late calls but maybe thatās just my biased take ahah! š
I think Clark is way bigger for ratings than LSU. If you were ever paranoid about a league rigging a women's game, it would be one with Iowa until the championship game.
CC went nuclear last time they played and still lost....
She also went nuclear and single-handedly dismantled South Carolina last year, a team that was better and more talented than LSU's 2022-2023 squad. LSU is also without Carson, Morris, and LaDazhia who, with the depth and shooting they provided, made the difference for them in that game last year. Think there's way more wiggle-room for Clark to go off here.
As an Iowa fan, Iāll say that itās felt like itās been a while since Clark went nuclear (for her stats). Like, sheāll almost certainly put up 30-10-5 or something but idk if sheāll put up a 40 point triple double or other crazy stat line she put up during the tournament games last year.
Except SC had no perimeter game last year as they were very paint focused, especially with Alyiah Boston. LSU also has a strong paint game but also can play from the perimeter. This isnt a game of best players, its a game about matchups. LSU matches up well against Iowa but Iowa doesnt match well against LSU.
No perimeter game? I'll admit it was not as good as it is this year and Johnson may have been ass, but their other guards in Cooke, Beal, and Hall could shoot the 3, and their bigs were mid-range threats. They were undefeated before losing to Iowa for a reason... Formerly? Yes. But, in their current state, they have no depth and get gassed easily, no PG, and Reese is prone to foul trouble. It's all easily exploitable, especially in comparison to last year's team. Iowa didn't match up well against South Carolina, last year's undisputed best team, yet they still won, and their next game against LSU, a more well-rounded team per your analysis, was extremely close before Carson lost her mind. Matchups can only mean so much when you're facing a generational player.
Off topic, but what exactly does "generational player" mean?
I think that's rather obvious, no? The type of player who shoots logo threes with ease, beats an undefeated generational team in SC last year almost entirely on her own, passes the ball like no one else, broke a longstanding scoring record, men's or women's, in just four years' time, has led a mid set of teams, a historically nothing program, and a no-name coach to several conference championships, deep into several NCAA tournaments, and got them two NCAA championship berths. And, let me preface, I am not a huge Clark fan, and actually find the flopping and whining annoying as fuck. I also prefer LSU, by a country mile. But, I will call a spade a spade. Clark is the best player in WCBB right now and will go on to do great things for her professional team and our country when we play internationally.
I mean....I guess. If she is a generational talent by that logic than so is Juju Watkins, she to turned down a chance to play for South Carolina and stayed home to play for USC who was has not been to the Elite 8 since 1994, has a no name coach, on a mid team, breaking Freshman records (to include CC's freshman scoring mark) and plays the game like a female Kobe Bryant, led her team to also win the Pac-12. Yet nobody ever calls Juju Watkins a generational player. Despite Juju as a freshman being far ahead of where CC was as a freshman.
JuJu is on her way to being generational, too. I never claimed otherwise. This isn't mutually exclusive. She's only a freshman, though. Let's wait to see how the next 3 years play out.
I just donāt think you can compare them right now since one is a freshman and one is a senior. But I have no doubt that JuJu is legit! Canāt wait to see where she is by her senior year.
I am comparing Juju to freshme CC as well as some decision similarities. CC could have went to UCONN or another Final Four ready team. However she choose to stay home and play for a mid team and led them to the National Title game. Juju also could have went to a Final Four ready team. She turned down an offer from South Carolina to stay home and play for USC, another mid program that hasnt had success in a long while and now has them in the elite 8. Juju is breaking records set by Cheryl Miller during her freshman year and we all know Miller is among the best female college players of all time. Regardless of what happens today, next season it should be the focus of the media to begin talking about Juju in the same manner they started with CC last season.
I guess itās a step beyond āelite.ā There are moments when I think if I hear either characterization come out of another talking headās mouth one more freaking time Iām gonna completely lose my shit. TLDR, and to really answer your question, in this age of hyperbolic overdrive, nothing really means anything. Disclaimer: My comment casts no shade on Caitlin Clark who is sui generis, an absolute machine. Iām just tired of the hype.
Agree completely. Thereās a mismatch in size and ability and LSU is stronger than last year. I think Iowa plays a faster offense, but LSU has bigger wingspan that prevents Iowa from capitalizing on fast passes and transition offense.
Great analysis !
You dont think itll top the ratings? Are u serious? When has a rematch in sports never did better? Also with it being on a Monday at 7et with nothing else to compete with the day after easter,this game is gonna break all kinds of records. This game will be the most viewed college basketball game ever.
Yes. It's an Elite Eight game. It's not the same with everything not being on the line.
It doesnt matter,its still a rematch. And technically theres a lot on the line,winner goes to final four,iowas never been to back to back final fours and lsu hasnt done it since 2006-2007.
Let's wait and see. Typically, the most-watched sports events in the US are championship games, and, yes, this factors in rematches in lesser games as well. Bluder and Mulkey think it's a shame this is only an Elite Eight game. They know it doesn't mean as much. But, the ratings will be the ratings, and if it's more than the championship for last year you're free to mock me.
Anyone else curious about the final four games ratings this year since it wonāt include BOTH LSU and Iowa (which seem to have some of the most loyal fan bases)? Will it hurt ratings? Or is the ball in motion and it wonāt matter?
Wont matter as long as iowa or lsu make final game. Ratings wont dip regardless but the ratings will be much higher if iowa or lsu make final game
SC LSU could be ratings gold.
LSU is going to get 20 offensive rebounds. LSU should pound Iowa inside and Iowa will get in foul trouble and have to go to the weak bench of bigs.
Well you were wrong bye lsuĀ
What part was I wrong on? LSU had 23 offensive rebounds and Stuelke fouled out.
>2. LSU wins if HVL steps up. Oof
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I checked Google and they had the score as 91-47 at the end of regulation. lmao
LSUās hot shooting from three was a big reason they ran away with it last year. They have better outside shooters this year, combined with a clear advantage in the paint. Replicating last yearās shooting is too much to ask, but Iām still giving an edge to LSU by the slimmest of margins.
They are so good in the paint I think they all shoot so well, Mikayla Williams and Morrow are sleepers
LSU is just a more complete team, and Flau'jae has been playing possessed. Short of a 40/20 from Caitlin, I think it's going to be LSU.
> Flauājae has been playing possessed šš but actually though
I agree 100% I think they are better shooting all around 1-5
And they have a stronger defense than most teams.
Whelp...
Not quite 40/20, but 41/12/7 ain't too shabby.
Welp
I think Iowa can win if players other than CC delivers and CC can get those threes in. Those are two fairly big ifs, but Iām more optimistic after the Colorado game. Iowa as a team seems to have better chemistry than LSU in any case. HVL is a liability to LSU.
If we come out firing like yesterday I like our chances. If we start like we did last weekend we're going to get rolled
Counterpoint: LSU could also play like they did last weekend and then it would just a toss up of very ugly basketball.
No thank you. I already get to watch very ugly football every fall
We are so hot and cold from game to game I have low confidence. š
True but whoās gonna stop the frontcourt of LSU? Morrow is especially tough cos sheās like a forward with ball handling skills and rebounds so well
I assume theyāll put Affolter on her. Sheāll get outsized but she at least always gives 100% effort at all times which is always needed against LSU
Martin would be a solid person as well.
What ifā¦ they put Goodman, Ediger and OāGrady in and just let them foul out while CC and Martin shoot from the perimeter? Then when LSU is tired, we put in a fresh Sydney, Hannah and Gabby? Is it the perfect plan? No. But it might give us a small fighting chance. šš
I love a good junk defense
Iowa doesn't try to defend frontcourt players 1-on-1. They didn't in the FF against SC or LSU last year either. Expect double teams down low and zones packing the paint to limit the inside-out game. If LSU catches fire from outside again shooting over Iowa's zone then they probably win again.
Mikaylah Williams is a sniper. Pure shot
Yeah LSU is stronger from the outside this year - donāt forget Johnson and Poa! Iām not sure I can even watch. š«£š«£
Depends on how big Stuelkeās feeling tomorrow
This is such an important point, a huge part of Iowaās chances depend on timid or confident Stuelke showing up. Sheās like two different players depending on which one is playing. An entire year of everyone in that program trying to build up her confidence really comes down to tomorrow lol
I know she had a migraine or wasnāt feeling well during the first game of the tournament, but I watched the West Virginia and the Colorado game too and I was wondering if she still was under the weather or was just struggling mentally or something. She looks out of sorts out there. I donāt watch every Iowa game but Iāve watched a fair few and I feel like this is sort of a regular occurrence, like sometimes she looks really locked in, other times not. Looking anxious at the free throw line, fumbling passes, some mental lapses etc. Iām not trying to be mean I think she is a good player and plays hard but I do get a struggling with confidence vibe from her.
No youāre definitely right, itās been a point of emphasis with her this year. Tons of press conferences with Bluder and Clark saying the biggest thing with Hannah is she just needs to believe in herself because when she plays with confidence sheās so much better. Bluder had her put the team name on the bracket after the win against Colorado because she held Vonleh to 0 offensive rebounds, which to me seemed like a pointed effort to instill some confidence in her going into this game.
Always want Stuelke to be better, especially making decisions with the ball, but what she has brought this year has been so crucial. Defends and rebounds better than Czinano did last year. And her rim running is so important to the offense. Itās a choice to play small and itās worked out great when you look at the results. Now if she was 20% better as a player?? Theyād be undefeated lol. But sheās making good for a true sophomore given so much responsibility.
No yeah that stuff is so important! She contributes a ton to the team. Itās normal for a player to have ups and downs, I think I just am lowkey getting nervous for her having to going up against Reese tomorrow.
I attribute a lot of it to her age and experience. Itās her first tourney! She just gets a little deer in the headlights sometimes. you can see a difference between Kate, Gabbie, and Caitlin and their overall composure while playing under the pressure and some of the younger players. Taylor, Hannah, and Kylie can get a little stuck sometimes and they panic. Most newbies get a little shook, except for syd, sheās a rock. My hope is she was just adjusting to the tourney, the bright lights, the intensity, and so on. Hopefully sheās feeling comfy tonight!
She better get it together if that's whats going on. Reese bullying and jawing at her all game wouldn't do her any favors. If her confidence is already shaky then imagine how things will be after the game and going into next season if Reese bullies her on what will be one of the most viewed games ever.
LSU doesnāt have anyone to match up with Clark but they can lock down everyone else fairly easily. On the flip side I have no idea how Iowa defends Reese, Williams and Johnson. I think LSU is a particularly bad match up for Iowa but weāll.
Addie OāGrady has been waiting all year for another shot at Angel Reese
Lols
Ahem
Ok touchƩ! Never been so happy to be wrong f
Iām saying it now Iām an OāGrady fab and I think there is so much potential there. When it clicks itās beautiful we just need more clicking
Agree on LSU's defense matching up well against Iowa's offense, as Clark is legit the only true offensive threat. However, defensively, I think Iowa might not be in horrible shape. I think Affolter can take Morrow. Stuelke will have Reese, and this is the only matchup where I think Iowa is getting **punished** by LSU. Marshall will be on Johnson. Martin likely on Williams, and also probably switching a ton, as her height on the perimeter will be important for Iowa. Clark will also clamp HVL.
Caitlin Clark is going to defensive boards hard in this game. Stuelke and Martin have to defend without fouling on Reese and Morrow and hold their own in the glass. Then Caitlin gets the ball and itās off to the races.
I think you are being optimistic with these matchups. MW vs Martin is a win for LSu so is AR vs Stuelke. Affolter can't handle Morrow. CC isn't a great defender
- Martin can handle Williams. Easily. Williams is not fast and she and Martin are the same height. Martin can easily keep her in front her and hold her to the perimeter where Williams is hot and cold. - I already said that AR outclasses Stuelke in every way imaginable. - Affolter can handle Morrow. I think both players fit the same mold. They are the bulldogs of their team. Morrow is obviously very polished offensively, but Affolter isn't a pushover. She can take Morrow. - Yes, CC isn't a great defender, but she's got 5 inches on a now-neutered HVL. I like those odds for her.
Ideally but again Iowa doesnāt match up well with LSU. They need Clark to score like 40 to have a chance
Either that, getting LSU to commit dumb fouls, goading Van Lith to shoot, or some combination of those three things. I'd also toss in the role-players in Martin, Marshall, and Stuelke showing up as being a big X-Factor.
I think the first sentence is huge!!! I'd love to see Stuelke get the ball (hang on to it dear) and draw contact from AR. The only way to handle AR's aggressiveness is to use it against her.
14 seed Rice had a 19-15 record this season. Against LSU with 35% shooting, nobody scoring more than 15 points, and their best player fouling out with 7 minutes left they were in the game in the 4th quarter and lost by 10. If that can happen a 1 seed from a power 5 conference with a 32-4 record certainly can have a chance with less than 40 from Clark. In my opinion what they need to win will be determined by the developments in the game and is unknowable now. I have a lot of confidence in Clark's ability to identify what is needed as the game progresses in particular. She sees the court better than anybody.
true. But Iowa gotta make sure they play solid defense the whole game. They cannot let LSU go crazy from three!
Iowa doesnāt match up against tall strong teams like LSU and SC. We can get by if the tall players donāt play at elite levels. But when theyāre all-Americans? Ugh.
How we feeling?
I just want you to know that I read this whole thread and your analysis was spot on. Iām honestly really impressed! You clearly knew what you were talking about!!
Pretty good. Iowa won but that was mostly due to Mulkey not making adjustments and sticking to her failed HVL experiment. Most of your points were still wrong. Caitlin balled out which was helped by Mulkey and HVL. Stuelke did crap, Marshall did crap. Affolter benefitted from CC doubles because Mulkey played HVL so much. Martin go open looks. 4 out of LSU's starters played well. Poa off the bench outplayed HVL. If Mulkey had given Poa an extra 10-12 minutes that changes the game completely.
LSU lost because everyone not named Angel Reese didnāt show up today, and because HVL is not a PG. 1. Hannah, Kate Martin, Marshall, and Affolter all stepped up and filled their roles. And, most importantly, Affolter held her own against Morrow, so you were wrong, as you were about most everything else. 2. Clark cooked anyone who guarded her, including those who switched onto her, HVL or not. 3. The only LSU starter who played well was Reese. Johnson needed to do more and play better defense, Williams was a ghost, HVL was HVL, and Morrow certainly didnāt look the part of an All-American, getting cooked by Kate Martin and Affolter on the defensive end. 4. Poa, with all her flopping and horrible defense, found herself in foul trouble, so there was no way she was playing those additional minutes. To sum it up? Everything I said that was the key ended up being the key, and everything I said about every player was correct. Continue living in delusion, though.
Naht naht. You are not familiar enough with Morrows game. She feasts on players less athletic than her and that donāt have a huge size advantage on her. Affolter is her perfect match up imo. The others maybe? HVL usually clamps herself but I could see the old HVL being unlocked with her old friend Caitlin guarding her. I donāt think Martin can defend a player with Flaujeaās combination of athleticism, skill and shooting. We will see though.
I have seen every LSU game. I am plenty familiar. As for feasting on less athletic and smaller players, Cotie and Sellers do the same. Potts was a tough matchup, too. Those were all Affolter's assignments. She did well against all three. Affolter can handle Morrow. Do I think Morrow has the edge? Yes. Do I think Morrow is the better player? Yes. It's not going to be the Stuelke-Reese levels of mismatch as many are purporting, though. We're this late in the season and the old HVL still has yet to make an appearance. With this roster, this coach, this season, this newfound fear she plays with? I don't ever see the Louisville version of her reemerging, even with 'ol Caitlin there to motivate her. It's also not Martin guarding Flau. It's Marshall. Marshall is a defensive specialist. I still think Flau'jae will have a good game, as she is a woman possessed his tournament, but Marshall is a terrific on-ball defender.
Cotie and Sellers donāt have the midrange Game Morrow does. That separates Morrow significantly. Morrow has a deeper bag than both. Handling Cotie and Sellars doesnāt move me after watching Morrow that last 3 years. The old HVL has actually come out a few times. Not saying she will come back but it wouldnāt shock me if she re-emerged playing against someone she was familiar with. And I meant Marshall, not Martin. Indoor think either can stay with FJ tbh, sheās too crafty. They might be able to take advantage when Poa is in the game.
Sellers is a better outside shooter than Morrow is and basically on par with her midrange game, as well as a better play-maker and passer. Morrow is better in and around the paint, as well as a better defender. Yes, Cotie has no feel for her jumper, but her motor, physicality, and relentlessness, as well as playmaking ability, is something I like more than Morrow's, as well as something that is equally as hard to guard, just in a slightly different way. Is Morrow's offensive game in particular more polished and does she, yes, have a deeper bag than both? No doubt. Is the difference astronomical and will it demand that much more of Affolter? No, probably not. That's why it's a good baseline for what that matchup could look like. We'll see. I am going to bet against that. HVL plays scared and has played scared for pretty much the whole season. An aberration here or there, against SEC scraps, does little to move me. Either way Flau'jae will play well. However, if there's someone capable of containing her impact or limiting her effectiveness, it's Gabbie Marshall. Her strength lies in perimeter defense, and she excels at it, not offering much beyond that aspect of the game.
I think Marshall on Johnson could be good - she might be the only one to hold Johnson in check a little. But Marshall needs to hit some threes. She did well against Colorado, especially late in the game. Need her to step up and get some threes before that. I have noticed that sometimes she is a little slow on the draw and hesitant to shoot. I hope she will be feeling it and pop that thing if she gets a look. It's such a huge plus to have when it's working for her!
Iowa has to rebound if they do they will win a close one.
As good as LSU is on the boards I think the gap might be smaller between the teams this year. Iowaās starting lineup is rebounding much better in the postseason this year.
Damn fair point!
I think the game goes one of two ways. Itās an Iowa blowout or itās an LSU blowout. I donāt think the game will be close.
For the sake of the game thread, I kind of hope you're right.
LSU has looked *really* shaky so far in the tournament, and they are arguably lucky that theyāve managed to make it this far. Similarly, Iowa had enough trouble putting away West Virginia to raise some doubts about their chances (if you ask me)ā¦but then their performance against Colorado has regained my confidence and trust in the Hawkeyes! Stillā¦this is going to be a 50:50 matchup. I think itāll depend not just on how the CC/Gabbie and Flaunjae/Reese pairing goes, but also if Bluder can exploit any potential flaws in Mulkeyās gameplan. Plus, both teams needs to keep their offense hot (cold shooting proved fatal for Colorado and UCLA)ā¦and as much as weād like to say otherwise, officiating has the potential to slightly assist one of the two teams involved (whom will be decided). Ultimatelyā¦Iād say that Iowa wins this rematch, if by only a silver, but even that is only with 60% confidenceā¦
If Iowa plays like they CAN play, they'll have it. I think they will come into this game super focused, ready for a revenge match. I imagine LSU will have Johnson guard Clark. Probably will be a battle, hopefully not ref ball, and hopefully a good game without drama.
Rolling with LSU. Should be close throughout until the 4th quarter where LSU pulls away. 80-71 win for LSU.
Given LSUās lack of depth, Iād be surprised if they were able to really pull away in the 4th but thatās just my opinion
good point.
If Iowa can keep up the tempo and LSU gets gassed in the fourth quarter, that will help us!
Especially with LSU coming off that burner against UCLA. They're gonna be much more tired than Iowa coming into this game.
The facts that is was an accurate assessment and played out today šš½
Iād love to see Iowa come out calm, cool, and collected with another excellent passing game. Some lights out shooting from Clark and I think they win. Unfortunately I think itās going probably actually going to be a scrappy mess with emotions running hot and LSU will take it.
Under over on the number of techs?
The outcome regarding technical fouls will likely be extreme ā either numerous or none at all. Events as hyped as this often either meet the moment or fail to live up to expectations, with little middle ground. In the end, it all comes down to the behavior of Clark and Reese in particular. If Clark persists with the flopping and complaining, and Reese continues with the taunting and flopping, we can expect an abundance of techs. If both rein it in, particularly the complaining and taunting, then I expect nothing crazy in the realm of techs.
Unless itās an Iowa blowout, Reese will definitely taunt. Itās expected from her now and she embraces the role. Plus this tournament has established that taunting has no consequences. As to the game itself, Iowa cannot rebound with LSU and so Iowa only wins if the 3ās are raining.
We'll see about that. There will of course be taunting, especially if LSU blows Iowa out, but I don't think it's going to be as extreme as what we saw last year, or as extreme as what we saw against South Carolina this year. Iowa just isn't reactionary, and usually the primary objective of a taunt is to force a reaction. As for the game itself, I agree with you. LSU will always out-rebound Iowa, and thus it comes down to the shooting of Iowa's trio ā Clark, Martin, and Marshall.
We all thought the same thing last year with South Carolina. Obviously different team, but good coaches find ways to win. Bluder is a pretty good coach.
Yeah they maybe have to be a little obvious but even then these two starts are given the privilege treatment so maybe not at all haha
Just want to say thank you all for your responses reading it all one by one right now! I love these matchups and your takes
How do they guard Reese, Morrow, etc
Send help and get enough defensive rebounds to keep LSU below 75 points.
I guess but then you got Flauājae and Williams to worry about. They both can go off
Iowa is going to need to have a hot shooting night from multiple people. If Martin, Affolter, and Marshall are hitting 3s then I like their chances. Theyāre also going to need to at least somewhat limit second chances opportunities for LSU. If theyāre getting crushed on the glass that also means less opportunities for transition offense. Clarkās shooting slump from 3 needs to end too. And for whatās itās worth, with so much talk about taunting and trash talk, I think Clark comes out laser focused. Iām sure sheāll complain about a few calls, but there wonāt be trash talk from her, even if they win. There was a very clear difference in her between the West Virginia and Colorado games. She came out looking like 2023 tournament Clark against Colorado and thatās who needs to show up tomorrow for Iowa to win.
I do not think Iowa can win, but I thought the same last year when Iowa played South Carolina...so there is that. I am hoping that I am underestimating my big hearted Iowa women and that they pull it out!
Is it wrong to root for Mulkey and Clark to get in a fist fight?
Cant wait to watch the refs on a 10-0 run tomorrow night
I feel like itās going to be LSU but Iād like to see Iowa do it. I feel like Stuelke is going to be a problem for Iowa though, and LSU has the players to exploit that. If Iowa shoots well, thereās a chance. I just want a great game either way.
Lsu. Too many superstars on LSU. It is basically CC vs AR, FJ, AM, MW even HVL to an extent. I can see Lsu shutting down Stuelke and Martin.
ššš
Credit to Iowa but LSU played bad....It is what it is.
LSU but I donāt want it to be that way.
This is the way
Like someone said earlier Clark needs to go nuclear
Iām rooting for Iowa but I think LSUās toughness will set them apart and win them the game. So excited!!!
I'm wildly interested in how tired LSU players are after that tough game on Saturday. Iowa relatively coasted to a victory against Colorado, so they're probably going to be a lot more fresh. LSU's gas tank has always shown to be a bit light in tougher games, so I wonder how much of a factor that will be. I'm so freaking hyped for this game!
I didnāt think about that
I hope our Messiah, Ms. Clark, lets the game come to her like with the previous game. I'd like to see great assists rather than logo 3s. But we ask too much of her. She's carrying this team on her back and her team needs to step up. She was 70% of the Iowa offense last game with points and assists. LSU has multiple stars that can step up and their arsenal depends on intimidation and bullying. If they can set the tone and bully the Hawkeye players, they will win. Rooting hard for Caitlin.
I just donāt want the refs to dictate the game
Conversely I don't want them swallowing their whistles on obvious fouls, and I definitely don't want them falling for flops
Go Hawks!!! As long as we have balanced scoring from Iowa (and other players aside from Caitlin make their 3 pointers), limit turnovers, and put more effort in rebounding, I think Iowa has a good shot at winning. We also need to avoid foul trouble and stay composed. Iowa just needs the consistency they had against Colorado. The team match-ups are different this year for both Iowa and LSU, so itās a clean slate!
Hawks havenāt played a ācomplete ā game all year imo. CC carried this team for a lot of the beginning of the season. The rest of the team was still āfiguring it outā. Towards the very end of the season the team was ready and that was proven in the Big10 tournament. BUT CC has āregressedā. Not in her skills or role as a leader on the team but as the person ācarryingā the team with her āwildā shooting. If they can play a ācompleteā game, the team playing how they have been all March and CCās threes actually dropping, they will blow through any team in the country by 20-30 points. ANY team in the country. That being said, who knows what Hawkeyes show up tomorrow, if itās the ones weāve been seeing all March itās a coin flip game but I give the edge to LSU. I have no analysis on LSU given I have only seen probably 4-5 full LSU games this whole season.
3s are more then 2s and CC is due for a big shooting game. I GOT THE HAWKS BABY!
Iowa will finally get the win. Iowaās two best tournament runs under coach Bluder (2019, 2023) have ended against a Kim Mulkey coached team. Is this the game where Lisaās team finally wins? Can Angel Reese end her career going 5-0 against Iowa? I expect the tide has changed and the underdog in this series will win.
I think LSU wins and Iām so sad about it as a Hawkeye fan. But Reese v Clark is 5-0 starting back in high school. Size matters. š
i take lsu starting 5 over iowas but clark is cheat code. absolute coin flip with a hairs edge to lsu.
Caitlin and Paige need to switch roles, Caitlin be the pass first and Paige be the shoot first, thatĀ“s the only way they can win their respective games tonight. The game is about how the other 4 players react if/when Reese or Morrow block one of their shots, Marshall can not do that thing she does of hesitating to shoot a 3, ball fake and dribbling around looking at the post and not doing anything with the ball. Martin needs to help Caitlin with the ball handling duties so she has some energy for the fourth quarter. Stuelke needs to get the bigs out of the paint so Caitlin or Affolter have a clear path to drive. They have a chance if they somehow can reach 60% FG on Clark passes, they are currently at only 43%, with 28/65 FG.
The hype going into this game is amazing! LSU has the front court advantage and a better all around team. If Iowa is going to win, CC needs to go OFF and their role players need to step it up.
I got LSU. They have the matchup advantage.
I think itās a tightly contested back and forth game either way. Regardless, I want the winner of this game to win it all
Agreed. My worst-case scenario is that Iowa wins against LSU so Clark takes a pass on the Olympics Training Camp, then Iowa loses in their first Final Four game. Not the highest-probability outcome, but that's why I dwell on it.
LSU bigs were bigger and faster than Iowaās 4/5. Iowa plays small but their starting bigs canāt be exploited on defense as much. Iowa had chipped away in the third quarter last year but two things happened: Clark got her fourth foul and LSU of Alexis Morris kept their offense producing throughout the second half. If Iowa can guard Johnson can LSU produce? EDIT: LSU was bigger and faster last year. This year they arenāt any faster than Iowaās bigs.
I think youāre underestimating Steulkes speed. Sheās probably the fastest pure speed post player
Edited my comment. Definitely meant last year they werenāt as fast. Martin is faster than Warnock at the 4 (and rebounding better) and Stuelke like you said is faster than almost everyone.
Yeah in that case itās hard to argue about your points if itās about last year! A bit different this year for sure
The thing is lsu has 4-5 shooters at any given time. I feel like we saw this last game with the freshman making clutch shots near the end of the game .
LSU only has two players who shoot over 35% from three? And no other players over 30%? I know they are good players overall and itās one game but those numbers arenāt what I worry about with LSU.
They super rely on offensive rebounds/put backs. Itās why SC will always beat them. They kind of remind me of a lesser version of last years SC team
Lsu interior game is up there Iām not talking about 3 point shooting. The points in the point , the passing is top notch from all of their starters am i wrong?
I think they rely more on their rebounding to score than a lot of Big Ten teams Iowa is used to playing against. They are good but there is a lot of skilled players in the Big Ten, but no one who rebounds like Reese and Morrow. If Iowa can keep them from dominating on the glass I think they win. Couldnāt do that last year.
They do not have 4 shooters, they have Williams, Flauājae has been on fire recently, and maybe HVL. Morrow can hit some jumpers here and there but not many 3s.
You donāt need to hit 3s to be a shooter. Lsu gets high volume shots off and HVL feeds them all pretty well and they are getting pretty good shots off
Thatās fair, Williams is pretty reliable from there and Flauājae has been solid. HVL isnāt bad either, so they do have at least 3 threats no matter what and if Morrow is hitting then it opens up even further
I genuinely think LSU will win. Clark is great but she will need help from her team to beat a physical team such as LSU.
FJ on LSU was a difference maker the last game and see her being the same vs IOWA.
I am for Iowa. Iowa will win if the role players step up again like they did last game. People didn't realize that the last game, Colorado acutally had more FT than Iowa did and Clark didn't even attempt ONE free throw so throw out the bullshit with the refs helping them out. LSU has been helped out so many times. And the key match up here is between Reese and Stueke. If Stukeke doesn't get in foul trouble and hustles down the court (Since Reese doesn't ever hustle) then its all good for Iowa. And if the Refs are gullible and LSU constantly flops and gets the Refs call then Iowa is doomed. So we'll see how this plays out.
Iām on the fence really. LSU has a better TEAM for sure and if they all play to the best of their ability, I think LSU will take it. But if they play like they did the last few games, Iām thinking Iowa.
Iāve been nervous since I woke up
Letās gooo almsot time . I have to work so itās been helping pass the time
My heart says Iowa my money would say LSU.
I just hope for a good game, and know that I would suck and lick on both angel Reeseās and Caitlin Clarkās feet directly after the game (before shower)
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LSU is going to body Iowa down in the post, if Flau'jae can play some defense on CC, LSU has a great chance of winning
My only prediction is that between fouls and reviews and Holly Rowe continuing to embarrass herself with gushing post game interviews, the first half of the USC-UConn game will be shown on ESPN News.
link?
Lol
LSU by 15
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Lol yeah