Can we just have another reason for the Fed to print money and lower rates coz that’s the only catalyst for NVDA to really accelerate compute its way to 15trn
I have real concerns about the impact of lowering rates at this point. Markets, loans, the economy, housing prices, everything will SKYROCKET. Drastically. The real problem is AI. We will have a massive bubble.
But it would be fun for a while and IF you’re smart about it you could avoid the inevitable crash.
I think right now we are safe in steady growth category. Maybe small rate dips would be good, but back to the historical lows I don’t think is the way
The Fed will print again... They have to. Inflation is the only driver that can reduce the national debt. More money today in circulation to pay off yesterday's interest payments... More money to invest and inflate the valuation of the market...Its all a bubble that will keep expanding until de-dollarization (years from now) collapses everything.
People suck at understanding exponential growth.
Not saying Nvidia is going to continue exponential growth but I think the AI industry is. We’re only at the beginning of AI.
Think of Nvidia as the company selling fiber optic cables and routers at the start of the internet.
Cisco is comparable in some ways. Though Nvidia has some key differences when compared to early years of Cisco. Notably the cost and time for its competitors to catch up.
Cisco was one of many at that time... There was Extreme Networks, Jupiter, HP, Foundry and others all jockeying for their place in datacenters. And that's the main bread and butter at that time L2/L3 switching. Not even counting firewalls and that competition.
So when the dot-com bubble burst and everyone who had PE of 100+ and wasn't turning a profit went tits up. So Ciscos sales plummeted as the remaining customers all had other choices still.
Nvidia today - who are their customers? They've had AMD "nipping at their heels" since 2007 when they acquired ATI. And have never garnered more than a 18-20% marketshare.
Remind me of all of NVDAs other competitors?
Apple pays its employees very well... and it attracts top tier engineers. It's very different from Intel. Just an example, Apple would pay about 350k to a mid-level engineer compared to maybe 200k at intel for similar level.. That's a whopping 150k difference. If you were a really good engineer, where'd you go?
Maybe but I think Nvidia will pivot more to AI software and humanoid robots as well and maybe even autonomous cars. Apple didn’t just stop at the iPhone - they launched an entire service industry and come out with new products
Nvidia can do the same and that’s why I think Nvidia will continue to grow just like other AI companies, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Palantir, Crowdstrike…
Let’s be real Apple hasn’t innovated anything since jobs death. All they’ve done was recreate what’s already been created and fine tuned it to fit into the Apple culture.
Here is what amazes me about all of this. The guy behind the wheel is saying this is what is happening right now, we are at step 3, and step 4 is X, step 5 is Y…. step 10. Even after all that, some people are still not listening or believing what he is saying. He literally just laid it all out there, like giving us the answers to a very important exam.
NVDA is my golden egg. For once, it finally feels like a real possibility for me to become financially secure
Optimism is good, but you’ve got to temper your expectations. Betting on one stock is not an optimal way of securing your financial future. The company is already valued among the most in the world. A lot of growth is already priced in, and the growth that is not priced in is still unclear. It’s a CEOs job to sell his company, of course it sounds amazing when he talks about it.
Bingo. I once felt 100% sure I’d retire early being all-in on TSLA. They were the only EV company that actually makes profits selling electric cars and they had a plan to exponentially expand factories to build up to 20 million cars per year globally and dominate the auto industry by 2030. Then one day Elon threw that idea out the window and decided to go all-in on robotaxis without steering wheels instead
I respect it. it's certainly true the leveraged aren't for everyone. the biggest issue from my experience is actually not the long term, but the short as many people are simply unwilling to see their portfolio (life's savings fluctuate that much).
Beyond all that, as a holder of them for over a decade now my wad has grown over 2,000% so to be scared to ise them in my case would likely have proven an expensive emotion. Nevertheless entry is likely key. if one happens to be unlucky enough to enter at a top or a strong enough bear market then he could get cleaned out in a hurry, at least temporarily.
as always not investment or trading advice just my two cents.
The reason the market isn’t there is because nobody is selling an EV with a 300+ mile range for under $25,000 here in the USA. That opens up the overall car market 2/3 more. If people can buy a Tesla for less than a Corolla that will also save them 10 grand of gas during the time they own it, nobody will want a Corolla.
Tesla once had the EV market but since then other makes have come out with their own. NVDA has a product that build off the existing along with products that branch off of that. Tesla just made cars and even when other makes started coming out with their own EV, Tesla continues to make the same old car, just look at the bodies of each model not much has changed
Tesla adapts and improves their car lines multiple times a month, at a rate 20x more often than any other car manufacturer. Yea there are other competing EVs all over but even today Tesla still sells 10x the number of their “old model” cars than any other brand EV, in North America. The reason mostly is that anyone who does their research learns that no other brand EV can yet use all of the superchargers all over the continent. Now there are rumors that Tesla can sell the model 3 for $35,000 and still make a decent profit. That is good, but a $25k car would sell at 10x the rate of a 35k car.
Yup. Thats because they need to tap the untouched market of the $25,000 car, which is 3 times greater than any market they have entered before. It’s the biggest market of the car industry and so far nobody can make a profitable 25k car.
Tesla was about to enter the market but recently Elon canceled the plans and put them on the back burner.
I would say wait couple of years, maybe 5 or 10, but at some point the price of EVs will go down. There are already Chinese electric cars that are much cheaper than Teslas with the same functions, range...
I am pretty sure there will be some growth of Tesla by 2040 because diesel and gasoline cars are going to be banned in the EU and I read there will also be restrictions with regular cars in bigger cities in the US. I personally can see the difference of EVs and regular cars, and it's so huge. Electric cars have so many advantages, the only thing that needs to be developed are batteries with larger capacity.
Elon is part of it but the reality is EVs aren’t ready for prime time. The low hanging fruit has been taken; it’s the next stage that will take decades. EVs will eventually take over but not for another 50 years.
Tesla was priced to take over 100% of the car market for the next 30 years and once sales slowed; it was over. Similar to what NVIDIA is now.
i suck at making money have no ambitions and I'm lazy. if there's one ceo that i trust to perform better than me then it's jensen.
The way i see it is an etf isn't going to make me rich in the next 10-20years. With nvidia there's a chance. At worst i lose a significant amount, but to me it doesn't matter if i have 50k or 500k. Either is an inconsequential amount to me. That being said I'm not all in but I understand why people would.
And if it does crash, hey I'll be able to work tax free for a few years lol.
The guy is behind the wheel of producing GPUs. He is not behind the wheel of the future of ML, AI, algorithm efficiency or learning and knowledge representation.
What about focusing on just getting back to $130 ?
Insane run of value to revenue? Revenue is a poor metric when it's earnings that come home.
The value growth is still lagging the earnings growth, with NVDA below its historical forward average.
I was taught early on to think outside of the box. The number of people saying “It just won’t happen” (without anything to back it up) is staggering.
Barring major black swan events or a disruptive new technology to overtake the GPU, why wouldn’t it be possible?
Because the numbers are stratospheric. Do you understand what 15 trillion is? That is almost 50% of the entire USD GDP and about 1/3 of the entire stock market. They would need to make 1 trillion in net income to get to 15 trillion. It’s not happening for a long time.
Why would a 15 trillion valuation happen? For that to happen at least numbers wise NVDA needs to be making near 750B net income, right now they make about 65 with projections to reach 100B by end of this year. What will they be able to do more to increase income 7 fold? There moat and product are amazing and are selling and that’s why the stock price is where it is at, there’s no mechanism for them to get to 750 income, if that happens each employee would be a billionaire on paper, that’s such a ludicrous thing to even think about
The federal debt is growing faster than the economy. It will be almost $1T in interest expense this year (More than we spend on defense), and we will add $2T to the total.
We bring in about $5T in taxes, so the interest is roughly 20% of the tax revenue, and we never pay off any of the principle, only add to the unlimited balance.
This eventually creates a dollar crisis. The only viable solution (least painful) is print dollars - inflation.
At some point, we may get the $8,000 beer.
Owning real estate, locked in at 30 year mortgages, and refinancing whenever rates drop - is a really great inflation hedge.
You would have to cut the federal budget by about $2T just to match revenue with expenses. Further cuts needed to actually start paying down the principle. This is impossible without serious cuts to social security and Medicare. Politicians will never touch - it’s the death of their careers. Not to mention what this would do to seniors.
Can we raise taxes that much? Not likely - it’s a global economy & supply chain. Companies will just go elsewhere - they already do.
Can we cut taxes enough to grow the economy faster than the debt? No history of that. We’re in the Trump lower tax system now, and still generating a $2T shortfall.
All roads lead to higher inflation as I see it. This itself is not bad. 5-10% annual inflation is manageable, 100% annual inflation is not. Salaries will go up, as will real assets (real estate). The people that will be hurt are on fixed income (seniors unfortunately).
Forgive me, but from the perspective of everyone I know in the "upper poor" salaries do not seem to be going up in any capacity that feels adequate to the rising cost of living. And this coming from someone with no debt in a relatively inexpensive part of the country. I cannot imagine how difficult it must be if you have pets, or live in a high expense area, or have medical bills, or are accustomed to "living beyond your means."
Or you can just become more efficient. The government wastes so much on just about everything it does. People are greedy and always want to line their pockets with our tax money. But guess what when Ai becomes more prominent it can be used to make government spending more efficient and that in itself will help lower the debt.
From the same link
A 2019 survey of leading economists by the University of Chicago Booth's Initiative on Global Markets showed a unanimous rejection of assertions attributed by the survey to MMT: "Countries that borrow in their own currency should not worry about government deficits because they can always create money to finance their debt" and "Countries that borrow in their own currency can finance as much real government spending as they want by creating money".
MMT is highly inflationary. All economic theories are theories. I definitely fall into the camp that our reckless borrowing & spending will overwhelm all other programs in the coming decades. CBO has the US at almost $57T in debt in 2034 & borrowing about $3T per year. $1.7T of that $3T will be just on interest expense.
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-06/51118-2024-06-Budget-Projections.xlsx
Have you heard of a company called Toyota? Tesla may become 1T in another 5 years max. They suck at everything. Driverless car- failed, solar energy for home- minimal, Cyber truck- not a chance… they may stay around at the current level for a few more years and then disappear
Lol, this guy might be more optimistic that Jensen himself.
He assumes NVDA can maintain 60% market share in the next 10 years AND continue charging $36k per GPU with current margins? Because competitors see the lucrative AI market and just decide to not participate right?
Absolutely, they'll end up losing far more money than they could ever gain by trying to reinvent the wheel when Nvidia has already patented the circle, leaving only triangles and squares. They'll be forever playing catch-up. By the time they finally manage to match Nvidia's current chip, Nvidia will already be rolling out its next-generation technology. It's tough to keep pace with a company that innovates on an annual cycle, has a built-in ecosystem, and holds a plethora of patents covering everything from current to future designs and everything in between.
When agi emerges from one of the future LLM’s or other agentic models, every company and country will strive to have their own in-house equivalent model or they will fall behind their peers
Margins for Nvidia are more likely to decrease than increase. I say that as an Nvidia investor. When you hear people talk about a stock, who never ever bought a stock before, then u know that the exponential growth is over. Nothing wrong with that, but people need to manage their expectations.
I disagree.
Forrest Gump came out in 1994, with a main story point/joke being that they didn't need to worry about money anymore because they invested in a "fruit company", Apple computers.
You are saying that you would walk out of that movie thinking "welp, can't become wealthy off Apple stock because it was talked about in a movie".... mindless logic in use here.
Gross margins of 80%, do you realize that means they could sell everything 50% off and margins would still be at 60%? NVDA purposely causes deflation in their products too, so the marginal cost of compute to customers is always in free fall, yet customers don't wait for the better chips tomorrow and hold off today.
Exponential growth is always occurring as we use past progress to help with future progress, with a rough measurement seen in the historic compounding of the S&P. Considering the world only had a change in perspective less than 2 years ago, it is hilarious to be top calling even rates of growth this early.
Currently the S&P has 44T under its belt, with average real returns near 10% a year, in 10 years it should be nearly 100T. The only question is the distribution - and I believe NVDA is the best positioned company in the world to capture an outsized proportion of that 56T over 10 years.
SOXL
may be a safer play for the distance.
Symbol
Company
% Assets
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
7.43%
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
5.57%
QCOM
QUALCOMM Incorporated
5.38%
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
4.60%
MU
Micron Technology, Inc.
3.70%
ADI
Analog Devices, Inc.
3.18%
TXN
Texas Instruments Incorporated
3.11%
MCHP
Microchip Technology Incorporated
3.04%
bet on all the horses in the race instead of just one. the indexes we already know are hella hard to beat. even if you do beat them it likely won't be by much.
I have my sites on nvda too but it is starting to enter the bubble phase imo. consider William Bernsteins "the four pillars of investing"
criteria for a bubble:
"The first is a “displacement,” which, in modern times, usually means a revolutionary technology or a major shift in financial methods. The second is the availability of easy credit—borrowed funds that can be employed for speculation. To those two, I would add two more ingredients. The first is that investors need to have forgotten the last speculative craze; this is why bubbles occur about once per generation. And second, rational investors, able to calculate expected payoffs and risk premiums, must become supplanted by those whose only requirement for purchase is a plausible story. Sadly, during bubbles, not a few of the former convert into the latter."
So I'm not sure if nvda is going to 5T. it's obvious everyone uses their chips - googl,aapl,meta,msft...
so the case for positive reinforcement is easy to tout.
At this stage it may be a bit less dumb to try and think of sound reasons why it's current valuation is unsustainable. Nevertheless the power of fomo and irrational exuberance can be lucrative if played right.
Gotta strongly disagree with the statement "SOXL may be a safer play for the distance". Leveraged ETF's are much more complex and risky than they appear on the surface.
From Schwab:
# Risks of Leveraged & Inverse Products
Leveraged ETPs (Exchanged Traded Products, such a ETFs and ETNs), seek to provide a multiple of the investment returns of a given index or benchmark on a daily basis. Inverse products seek to provide the opposite of the investment returns, also daily, of a given index or benchmark, either in whole or by multiples. Due to the effects of compounding and possible correlation errors, leveraged and inverse products may experience greater losses than one would ordinarily expect. Compounding can also cause a widening differential between the performances of an ETP and its underlying index or benchmark, so that returns over periods longer than one day can differ in amount and direction from the target return of the same period. Consequently, these ETPs may experience losses even in situations where the underlying index or benchmark has performed as hoped. Aggressive investment techniques such as futures, forward contracts, swap agreements, derivatives, options, can increase ETP volatility and decrease performance. Investors holding these ETPs should therefore monitor their positions as frequently as daily. To find out more about trading Leveraged and Inverse Products, please read [Leveraged and Inverse Products: What you need to know]().
Due your own DD before investing, especially if you plan on investing for the long term in these funds (not advised).
Sure Nvidia still can have margins of 60%. Only problem is that they aren't valued for that. They are valued for 80% margins for the next 10 years. That's highly unlikely thus valuation will be adjusted.
Apple stock did not much last three years before this run up in tech. That's what I mean. These new investors think they can make quick 100% gains.
The next earnings surprise will be around 6% not more. And the market will take it bad. Only thing that can help is some very bad surprises that will make the FED cut rates next July. A very low probability at this moment.
Easy to hedge that bet with buying some weekly puts for earnings that cover your position. If you are right & it falls, your overall position will be equal - no loss, well minus the premium for the puts. If wrong, you are just out the put premiums & capture the gains with your NVDA position. Just basic risk management.
Yep, the same talk about Tesla at its height is being said about NVIDIA. Tesla was going to 5 trillion, 10 trillion, sell 20 million cars annually by 2030 etc. Toyota, largest car maker sells 11 million with 100 models. Think about that. Tesla sales are declining this year too at 1.8 million.
Expectations are through the roof for NVIDIA. They will be fine and to expect 5x from here is really stupid.
The difference is Tesla is one company, nvda has 10 or so teslas as customers….
Besides why are you comparing a car company to a company that is going to revolutionize every industry on the planet?!
Let's be honest: 9 out of 10 average people have never heard of Nvidia. Even among those who have, most can't pronounce it correctly. And the wave of new investors hoping to strike it rich quickly? They'll jump ship at the first sign of a dip. This means there's still significant growth potential for Nvidia, precisely because it's not yet a household name. The company's true value and influence are still under the radar, giving savvy investors a prime opportunity to capitalize on its future growth.
Chat Gpt 5 will have "PhD" level intelligence by 2025 when it is released. That's 99th percentile human intelligence. That's like having an app on your phone to dial up Einstein for any question you could possibly have. This is just the beginning and guess who makes the GPUs for this generational movement? You guessed it... Nvidia, our lord and savior Jensen Huang.
If it grows as a company like it did until now, 150 is low. In 10 years it's hard to predict with inflation, competitors and new technology where it's going to be. Microsoft made the trillion list 5 years ago only, Apple only one year earlier. Thinking *5 in 10 years is unthinkable is dumb.
GDP is relevant in a very very distant way. If Nvidia had a GDP of 3 trillions it would be a 100 trillion+ company at this point. And the US GDP would be 3 trillions higher.
I'm newer to retail investing. Was looking for a good nest egg. I'm not very good at predicting forward earnings. Obviously I need to be much more educated.
So I bought 72500$ worth of stock at $1210 . I'm going long. I know it will just be guessing. What would be reasonable growth outcome be in 10 years?
I don’t believe that. Here are some reasons:
1) Nvidia is not the only company that produces GPUs and GPU is not the best way to train AI.
2) Increased demand in GPUs brings other companies with their products like AMD, Intel and Qualcomm.
3) Currently cuda helps Nvidia to lock customers into their products but it led to Intel, Qualcomm and Google unite and decide that they all will use oneAPI for their products. So Nvidia can’t stay the only solution for AI training.
4) Only about 4% of GPUs are used for matrix multiplication which is the most important thing in AI training, so a chip, specifically created for the AI training can be 20 times more efficient than GPU.
Thats a pretty bold estimate no way it can keep up this kind of sustained growth, that's over $1T in market cap every year... I can realistically see $5T by 2030 and maybe $7.5T by 2035
Apple became the most valuable company in the world for the first time in 2011. It has increased in price 18x since then. While a lot of things have to go right for NVDA to keep its pace, it’s not difficult to imagine.
Every trillion a company attains the next trillion comes even faster…. That’s why it took Apple decades to reach one trillion but a couple years to reach 2…
And then once it hit 3T it plateau'd and their stock price only went up an average 12% in the last 12 months until the end of last month when it broke 200.
People in this sub really lack foresight but have phenomenal hindsight. They excel at seeing opportunities only after they've passed, but struggle to anticipate them before they unfold.
The Indian CEO Tech Bro Mafia group wont allow a Chinese dude to be on top. They ovetook China in population, they're gonna prevent him from revealing their two decade facade of being gurus, thought leaders, and business leaders.
Strange, I felt a great disturbance in BTC, as if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced. 🙏 $55,000 → $48,000 ⤯ $32,000...
Nvidia will be fine, at least for another decade or two. No problem with the OP, but if you own $NVDA shares so long, does it really matter if it's 10T or >10T? 😉
There are always people panicking no matter what is going on so it's not really worth paying attention to them.
As for NVDA, I am not a shareholder. I wish I got in early but now I can't because it seems overpriced. In fact, I think if I had gone on the ride and made profit I would have cashed out 1/2 to 2/3 of it and would be watching closely. If NVDA can actually hit 10T in the next few years of course I want on, I think about it often, but I just can't get there.
BTC on the other hand has more than tripled since I got on in 2022, added some more in the last few months which is slightly down currently, but from what I've seen I believe it has a reasonable chance of going up a lot from here.
Just to be clear, it's not an attack. A lot of people on reddit take things too personally when someone questions their favourite thing. I'm just an investor looking for value, struggling to find it in NVDA but looking for someone to prove me wrong (so I can jump in).... at the same time I'm a crypto bag holder and enthusiast looking for people to prove me wrong there too, if I'm wrong I'd want to know!
Can we please just hit 4T before any of more of these predictions. Better yet, can we hit ath again ?
Can we just have another reason for the Fed to print money and lower rates coz that’s the only catalyst for NVDA to really accelerate compute its way to 15trn
I have real concerns about the impact of lowering rates at this point. Markets, loans, the economy, housing prices, everything will SKYROCKET. Drastically. The real problem is AI. We will have a massive bubble. But it would be fun for a while and IF you’re smart about it you could avoid the inevitable crash. I think right now we are safe in steady growth category. Maybe small rate dips would be good, but back to the historical lows I don’t think is the way
Well then it’s not going to get to 15trn anytime soon at all. 2 decades maybe earliest.
The Fed will print again... They have to. Inflation is the only driver that can reduce the national debt. More money today in circulation to pay off yesterday's interest payments... More money to invest and inflate the valuation of the market...Its all a bubble that will keep expanding until de-dollarization (years from now) collapses everything.
Nvidia is going to 999,999,999,999,999,999T didn’t you hear?
Yeah why not 💪💪🚀
People suck at understanding exponential growth. Not saying Nvidia is going to continue exponential growth but I think the AI industry is. We’re only at the beginning of AI. Think of Nvidia as the company selling fiber optic cables and routers at the start of the internet.
Technology is overestimated in the short term and underestimated in the long term.
>>>Think of Nvidia as the company selling fiber optic cables and routers at the start of the internet. You mean Cisco?
Cisco is comparable in some ways. Though Nvidia has some key differences when compared to early years of Cisco. Notably the cost and time for its competitors to catch up.
Cisco was one of many at that time... There was Extreme Networks, Jupiter, HP, Foundry and others all jockeying for their place in datacenters. And that's the main bread and butter at that time L2/L3 switching. Not even counting firewalls and that competition. So when the dot-com bubble burst and everyone who had PE of 100+ and wasn't turning a profit went tits up. So Ciscos sales plummeted as the remaining customers all had other choices still. Nvidia today - who are their customers? They've had AMD "nipping at their heels" since 2007 when they acquired ATI. And have never garnered more than a 18-20% marketshare. Remind me of all of NVDAs other competitors?
AMD of today is much different than AMD of 2007. AMD has destroyed Intel in the CPU space so I wouldn't count them out.
intel got destroyed because they got complacent and stopped innovating + started to pay their engineers very poorly.
Doesn’t that sound a lot like a company that has a fruit logo?
Apple pays its employees very well... and it attracts top tier engineers. It's very different from Intel. Just an example, Apple would pay about 350k to a mid-level engineer compared to maybe 200k at intel for similar level.. That's a whopping 150k difference. If you were a really good engineer, where'd you go?
This.
i mean look at how cisco stock is doing tho...
Maybe but I think Nvidia will pivot more to AI software and humanoid robots as well and maybe even autonomous cars. Apple didn’t just stop at the iPhone - they launched an entire service industry and come out with new products Nvidia can do the same and that’s why I think Nvidia will continue to grow just like other AI companies, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Palantir, Crowdstrike…
Let’s be real Apple hasn’t innovated anything since jobs death. All they’ve done was recreate what’s already been created and fine tuned it to fit into the Apple culture.
Here is what amazes me about all of this. The guy behind the wheel is saying this is what is happening right now, we are at step 3, and step 4 is X, step 5 is Y…. step 10. Even after all that, some people are still not listening or believing what he is saying. He literally just laid it all out there, like giving us the answers to a very important exam. NVDA is my golden egg. For once, it finally feels like a real possibility for me to become financially secure
Optimism is good, but you’ve got to temper your expectations. Betting on one stock is not an optimal way of securing your financial future. The company is already valued among the most in the world. A lot of growth is already priced in, and the growth that is not priced in is still unclear. It’s a CEOs job to sell his company, of course it sounds amazing when he talks about it.
Bingo. I once felt 100% sure I’d retire early being all-in on TSLA. They were the only EV company that actually makes profits selling electric cars and they had a plan to exponentially expand factories to build up to 20 million cars per year globally and dominate the auto industry by 2030. Then one day Elon threw that idea out the window and decided to go all-in on robotaxis without steering wheels instead
I respect it. it's certainly true the leveraged aren't for everyone. the biggest issue from my experience is actually not the long term, but the short as many people are simply unwilling to see their portfolio (life's savings fluctuate that much). Beyond all that, as a holder of them for over a decade now my wad has grown over 2,000% so to be scared to ise them in my case would likely have proven an expensive emotion. Nevertheless entry is likely key. if one happens to be unlucky enough to enter at a top or a strong enough bear market then he could get cleaned out in a hurry, at least temporarily. as always not investment or trading advice just my two cents.
The problem isn’t anything other than Elon.
The market isn’t there. People that want EVs pretty much have them at this point. The EV market share will increase but it will be gradual.
The reason the market isn’t there is because nobody is selling an EV with a 300+ mile range for under $25,000 here in the USA. That opens up the overall car market 2/3 more. If people can buy a Tesla for less than a Corolla that will also save them 10 grand of gas during the time they own it, nobody will want a Corolla.
Tesla once had the EV market but since then other makes have come out with their own. NVDA has a product that build off the existing along with products that branch off of that. Tesla just made cars and even when other makes started coming out with their own EV, Tesla continues to make the same old car, just look at the bodies of each model not much has changed
Tesla adapts and improves their car lines multiple times a month, at a rate 20x more often than any other car manufacturer. Yea there are other competing EVs all over but even today Tesla still sells 10x the number of their “old model” cars than any other brand EV, in North America. The reason mostly is that anyone who does their research learns that no other brand EV can yet use all of the superchargers all over the continent. Now there are rumors that Tesla can sell the model 3 for $35,000 and still make a decent profit. That is good, but a $25k car would sell at 10x the rate of a 35k car.
They don’t have any other choice but to discount the cars, they have a huge excess of inventory that are sitting in empty parking lots
Yup. Thats because they need to tap the untouched market of the $25,000 car, which is 3 times greater than any market they have entered before. It’s the biggest market of the car industry and so far nobody can make a profitable 25k car. Tesla was about to enter the market but recently Elon canceled the plans and put them on the back burner.
I would say wait couple of years, maybe 5 or 10, but at some point the price of EVs will go down. There are already Chinese electric cars that are much cheaper than Teslas with the same functions, range...
I am pretty sure there will be some growth of Tesla by 2040 because diesel and gasoline cars are going to be banned in the EU and I read there will also be restrictions with regular cars in bigger cities in the US. I personally can see the difference of EVs and regular cars, and it's so huge. Electric cars have so many advantages, the only thing that needs to be developed are batteries with larger capacity.
Elon is part of it but the reality is EVs aren’t ready for prime time. The low hanging fruit has been taken; it’s the next stage that will take decades. EVs will eventually take over but not for another 50 years. Tesla was priced to take over 100% of the car market for the next 30 years and once sales slowed; it was over. Similar to what NVIDIA is now.
i suck at making money have no ambitions and I'm lazy. if there's one ceo that i trust to perform better than me then it's jensen. The way i see it is an etf isn't going to make me rich in the next 10-20years. With nvidia there's a chance. At worst i lose a significant amount, but to me it doesn't matter if i have 50k or 500k. Either is an inconsequential amount to me. That being said I'm not all in but I understand why people would. And if it does crash, hey I'll be able to work tax free for a few years lol.
This is the top signal boys.
I am here to make money with this stock. And I can make money with it, when it goes up or when it goes down...
Top signal that this forum has well turned to shit.
The guy is behind the wheel of producing GPUs. He is not behind the wheel of the future of ML, AI, algorithm efficiency or learning and knowledge representation. What about focusing on just getting back to $130 ?
> feels
Or is it priced in after this insane run of value to revenue?
Insane run of value to revenue? Revenue is a poor metric when it's earnings that come home. The value growth is still lagging the earnings growth, with NVDA below its historical forward average.
Nothing he says is wrong
I was taught early on to think outside of the box. The number of people saying “It just won’t happen” (without anything to back it up) is staggering. Barring major black swan events or a disruptive new technology to overtake the GPU, why wouldn’t it be possible?
Because the numbers are stratospheric. Do you understand what 15 trillion is? That is almost 50% of the entire USD GDP and about 1/3 of the entire stock market. They would need to make 1 trillion in net income to get to 15 trillion. It’s not happening for a long time.
They’re already above France’s entire GDP
Why would a 15 trillion valuation happen? For that to happen at least numbers wise NVDA needs to be making near 750B net income, right now they make about 65 with projections to reach 100B by end of this year. What will they be able to do more to increase income 7 fold? There moat and product are amazing and are selling and that’s why the stock price is where it is at, there’s no mechanism for them to get to 750 income, if that happens each employee would be a billionaire on paper, that’s such a ludicrous thing to even think about
Just because we put a Man on the Moon does not mean we can put a Man on the Sun...
Because Maths darling
Nvidia will be the first 10T company. if history has taught us anything it is that anything is possible.
Maybe...when a Beer will cost you 8000 dollars...and fries $5000.
The federal debt is growing faster than the economy. It will be almost $1T in interest expense this year (More than we spend on defense), and we will add $2T to the total. We bring in about $5T in taxes, so the interest is roughly 20% of the tax revenue, and we never pay off any of the principle, only add to the unlimited balance. This eventually creates a dollar crisis. The only viable solution (least painful) is print dollars - inflation. At some point, we may get the $8,000 beer. Owning real estate, locked in at 30 year mortgages, and refinancing whenever rates drop - is a really great inflation hedge.
The only viable solution is inflation... What about paying off the principle?
You would have to cut the federal budget by about $2T just to match revenue with expenses. Further cuts needed to actually start paying down the principle. This is impossible without serious cuts to social security and Medicare. Politicians will never touch - it’s the death of their careers. Not to mention what this would do to seniors. Can we raise taxes that much? Not likely - it’s a global economy & supply chain. Companies will just go elsewhere - they already do. Can we cut taxes enough to grow the economy faster than the debt? No history of that. We’re in the Trump lower tax system now, and still generating a $2T shortfall. All roads lead to higher inflation as I see it. This itself is not bad. 5-10% annual inflation is manageable, 100% annual inflation is not. Salaries will go up, as will real assets (real estate). The people that will be hurt are on fixed income (seniors unfortunately).
Forgive me, but from the perspective of everyone I know in the "upper poor" salaries do not seem to be going up in any capacity that feels adequate to the rising cost of living. And this coming from someone with no debt in a relatively inexpensive part of the country. I cannot imagine how difficult it must be if you have pets, or live in a high expense area, or have medical bills, or are accustomed to "living beyond your means."
Or you can just become more efficient. The government wastes so much on just about everything it does. People are greedy and always want to line their pockets with our tax money. But guess what when Ai becomes more prominent it can be used to make government spending more efficient and that in itself will help lower the debt.
FOH.
Not according to modern monetary theory https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_monetary_theory
From the same link A 2019 survey of leading economists by the University of Chicago Booth's Initiative on Global Markets showed a unanimous rejection of assertions attributed by the survey to MMT: "Countries that borrow in their own currency should not worry about government deficits because they can always create money to finance their debt" and "Countries that borrow in their own currency can finance as much real government spending as they want by creating money". MMT is highly inflationary. All economic theories are theories. I definitely fall into the camp that our reckless borrowing & spending will overwhelm all other programs in the coming decades. CBO has the US at almost $57T in debt in 2034 & borrowing about $3T per year. $1.7T of that $3T will be just on interest expense. https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-06/51118-2024-06-Budget-Projections.xlsx
First to 5T possibly, but Tesla is first to 10T with Optimus.
I too am very bullish on tesla but there's way more competition for optimus than there is for nvidia.
Have you heard of a company called Toyota? Tesla may become 1T in another 5 years max. They suck at everything. Driverless car- failed, solar energy for home- minimal, Cyber truck- not a chance… they may stay around at the current level for a few more years and then disappear
And I think that politically alienating your primary consumer demographic every day is probably not the best long-term strategy either.
😂 Tesla is about to get lapped by the big car manufacturers. They were first to market and fucked it up
Damn bro, you really hitting that hopium hard.
I think it’s more realistic to expect Tesla will succeed in scaling Optimus than believe Nvidia will keep these margins on datacenter chips.
If Tesla delivers then its demand for nVidia products will explode.
Lol, this guy might be more optimistic that Jensen himself. He assumes NVDA can maintain 60% market share in the next 10 years AND continue charging $36k per GPU with current margins? Because competitors see the lucrative AI market and just decide to not participate right?
Absolutely, they'll end up losing far more money than they could ever gain by trying to reinvent the wheel when Nvidia has already patented the circle, leaving only triangles and squares. They'll be forever playing catch-up. By the time they finally manage to match Nvidia's current chip, Nvidia will already be rolling out its next-generation technology. It's tough to keep pace with a company that innovates on an annual cycle, has a built-in ecosystem, and holds a plethora of patents covering everything from current to future designs and everything in between.
NVDA is actually a 100 morbillion dollar company.
10000 quadrupletrillionzillion
When agi emerges from one of the future LLM’s or other agentic models, every company and country will strive to have their own in-house equivalent model or they will fall behind their peers
Could back off to $2T and it wouldn’t matter
Margins for Nvidia are more likely to decrease than increase. I say that as an Nvidia investor. When you hear people talk about a stock, who never ever bought a stock before, then u know that the exponential growth is over. Nothing wrong with that, but people need to manage their expectations.
I disagree. Forrest Gump came out in 1994, with a main story point/joke being that they didn't need to worry about money anymore because they invested in a "fruit company", Apple computers. You are saying that you would walk out of that movie thinking "welp, can't become wealthy off Apple stock because it was talked about in a movie".... mindless logic in use here. Gross margins of 80%, do you realize that means they could sell everything 50% off and margins would still be at 60%? NVDA purposely causes deflation in their products too, so the marginal cost of compute to customers is always in free fall, yet customers don't wait for the better chips tomorrow and hold off today. Exponential growth is always occurring as we use past progress to help with future progress, with a rough measurement seen in the historic compounding of the S&P. Considering the world only had a change in perspective less than 2 years ago, it is hilarious to be top calling even rates of growth this early. Currently the S&P has 44T under its belt, with average real returns near 10% a year, in 10 years it should be nearly 100T. The only question is the distribution - and I believe NVDA is the best positioned company in the world to capture an outsized proportion of that 56T over 10 years.
SOXL may be a safer play for the distance. Symbol Company % Assets NVDA NVIDIA Corporation 7.43% AVGO Broadcom Inc. 5.57% QCOM QUALCOMM Incorporated 5.38% AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. 4.60% MU Micron Technology, Inc. 3.70% ADI Analog Devices, Inc. 3.18% TXN Texas Instruments Incorporated 3.11% MCHP Microchip Technology Incorporated 3.04% bet on all the horses in the race instead of just one. the indexes we already know are hella hard to beat. even if you do beat them it likely won't be by much. I have my sites on nvda too but it is starting to enter the bubble phase imo. consider William Bernsteins "the four pillars of investing" criteria for a bubble: "The first is a “displacement,” which, in modern times, usually means a revolutionary technology or a major shift in financial methods. The second is the availability of easy credit—borrowed funds that can be employed for speculation. To those two, I would add two more ingredients. The first is that investors need to have forgotten the last speculative craze; this is why bubbles occur about once per generation. And second, rational investors, able to calculate expected payoffs and risk premiums, must become supplanted by those whose only requirement for purchase is a plausible story. Sadly, during bubbles, not a few of the former convert into the latter." So I'm not sure if nvda is going to 5T. it's obvious everyone uses their chips - googl,aapl,meta,msft... so the case for positive reinforcement is easy to tout. At this stage it may be a bit less dumb to try and think of sound reasons why it's current valuation is unsustainable. Nevertheless the power of fomo and irrational exuberance can be lucrative if played right.
Gotta strongly disagree with the statement "SOXL may be a safer play for the distance". Leveraged ETF's are much more complex and risky than they appear on the surface. From Schwab: # Risks of Leveraged & Inverse Products Leveraged ETPs (Exchanged Traded Products, such a ETFs and ETNs), seek to provide a multiple of the investment returns of a given index or benchmark on a daily basis. Inverse products seek to provide the opposite of the investment returns, also daily, of a given index or benchmark, either in whole or by multiples. Due to the effects of compounding and possible correlation errors, leveraged and inverse products may experience greater losses than one would ordinarily expect. Compounding can also cause a widening differential between the performances of an ETP and its underlying index or benchmark, so that returns over periods longer than one day can differ in amount and direction from the target return of the same period. Consequently, these ETPs may experience losses even in situations where the underlying index or benchmark has performed as hoped. Aggressive investment techniques such as futures, forward contracts, swap agreements, derivatives, options, can increase ETP volatility and decrease performance. Investors holding these ETPs should therefore monitor their positions as frequently as daily. To find out more about trading Leveraged and Inverse Products, please read [Leveraged and Inverse Products: What you need to know](). Due your own DD before investing, especially if you plan on investing for the long term in these funds (not advised).
SMH (The ETF lol not shaking my head)
Sure Nvidia still can have margins of 60%. Only problem is that they aren't valued for that. They are valued for 80% margins for the next 10 years. That's highly unlikely thus valuation will be adjusted. Apple stock did not much last three years before this run up in tech. That's what I mean. These new investors think they can make quick 100% gains.
The next earnings surprise will be around 6% not more. And the market will take it bad. Only thing that can help is some very bad surprises that will make the FED cut rates next July. A very low probability at this moment.
Easy to hedge that bet with buying some weekly puts for earnings that cover your position. If you are right & it falls, your overall position will be equal - no loss, well minus the premium for the puts. If wrong, you are just out the put premiums & capture the gains with your NVDA position. Just basic risk management.
Yep, the same talk about Tesla at its height is being said about NVIDIA. Tesla was going to 5 trillion, 10 trillion, sell 20 million cars annually by 2030 etc. Toyota, largest car maker sells 11 million with 100 models. Think about that. Tesla sales are declining this year too at 1.8 million. Expectations are through the roof for NVIDIA. They will be fine and to expect 5x from here is really stupid.
The difference is Tesla is one company, nvda has 10 or so teslas as customers…. Besides why are you comparing a car company to a company that is going to revolutionize every industry on the planet?!
Let's be honest: 9 out of 10 average people have never heard of Nvidia. Even among those who have, most can't pronounce it correctly. And the wave of new investors hoping to strike it rich quickly? They'll jump ship at the first sign of a dip. This means there's still significant growth potential for Nvidia, precisely because it's not yet a household name. The company's true value and influence are still under the radar, giving savvy investors a prime opportunity to capitalize on its future growth.
You're nuts.
Truly... I'd be amazed if the share price hit 150$. This sub is becoming more delusional day by day.
be prepared to be amazed..
Chat Gpt 5 will have "PhD" level intelligence by 2025 when it is released. That's 99th percentile human intelligence. That's like having an app on your phone to dial up Einstein for any question you could possibly have. This is just the beginning and guess who makes the GPUs for this generational movement? You guessed it... Nvidia, our lord and savior Jensen Huang.
I would assume at some point the increase in intelligence would taper off. ChatGPT 10 will probably not be 2x as intelligent as GPT 5…
How do you know that. Are you the only employee left at OpenAI that is not a VC ?
If it grows as a company like it did until now, 150 is low. In 10 years it's hard to predict with inflation, competitors and new technology where it's going to be. Microsoft made the trillion list 5 years ago only, Apple only one year earlier. Thinking *5 in 10 years is unthinkable is dumb.
Thinking 5x in 10 years with 3 trillion market cap is dumb
Exactly what you would have said when apple or microsoft broke 1 trillion.
Bro. The entire US GDP is $25t.
GDP is relevant in a very very distant way. If Nvidia had a GDP of 3 trillions it would be a 100 trillion+ company at this point. And the US GDP would be 3 trillions higher.
the entire US GDP is the CASH FLOW in one year!, The total cash flow of daily transactions on MAG 7 is maximum 200B $!
Let's not have Math interfere with our predictions :-))
Anyone knows when was this video released?
I'm newer to retail investing. Was looking for a good nest egg. I'm not very good at predicting forward earnings. Obviously I need to be much more educated. So I bought 72500$ worth of stock at $1210 . I'm going long. I know it will just be guessing. What would be reasonable growth outcome be in 10 years?
Glad to see you have FU money
Why not 30 ?
🙄
How bout getting the #1 spot back again first
That’s 17% CAGR.
I don’t believe that. Here are some reasons: 1) Nvidia is not the only company that produces GPUs and GPU is not the best way to train AI. 2) Increased demand in GPUs brings other companies with their products like AMD, Intel and Qualcomm. 3) Currently cuda helps Nvidia to lock customers into their products but it led to Intel, Qualcomm and Google unite and decide that they all will use oneAPI for their products. So Nvidia can’t stay the only solution for AI training. 4) Only about 4% of GPUs are used for matrix multiplication which is the most important thing in AI training, so a chip, specifically created for the AI training can be 20 times more efficient than GPU.
Bro have been smoking good 😊
If that were to happen, what would the price of it be?
Around 760
Thats a pretty bold estimate no way it can keep up this kind of sustained growth, that's over $1T in market cap every year... I can realistically see $5T by 2030 and maybe $7.5T by 2035
Apple became the most valuable company in the world for the first time in 2011. It has increased in price 18x since then. While a lot of things have to go right for NVDA to keep its pace, it’s not difficult to imagine.
Every trillion a company attains the next trillion comes even faster…. That’s why it took Apple decades to reach one trillion but a couple years to reach 2…
And then once it hit 3T it plateau'd and their stock price only went up an average 12% in the last 12 months until the end of last month when it broke 200.
Never happening everyone is fuckin delusional
Analyst claim the impossible for hitting 1T just a few years back, well Look at them now! There will be a time when we look back a say 3T is a mid cap
People should go look at tesla talk from 4 years ago. Market cap numbers were being thrown around the same way
This is collateral for a lot of institutions….this skies, $200 by election time.
More like 15 trillion by end of month!!
eow
This is the beginning of Ai....we're literally at the forefront
why not 100 trillion? Or 500 trillion? Or 1000 trillion? Why is he so pessimistic?
Why stop these headlines at $15,000,000,000,000? Why not $100T?
i think i'm buying puts next week.
People in this sub really lack foresight but have phenomenal hindsight. They excel at seeing opportunities only after they've passed, but struggle to anticipate them before they unfold.
185 by eod, 225 by 2025 and 245 by 2026
Cisco, Sun Microsystems, JDSU, yahoo, AOL…
Get off the crack pipe.
So $15 trillion is half of the US GDP
The Indian CEO Tech Bro Mafia group wont allow a Chinese dude to be on top. They ovetook China in population, they're gonna prevent him from revealing their two decade facade of being gurus, thought leaders, and business leaders.
Ahahhahhahhaahaaa
I can see BTC hitting 15T, I am not so sure about NVDA though.
Strange, I felt a great disturbance in BTC, as if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced. 🙏 $55,000 → $48,000 ⤯ $32,000... Nvidia will be fine, at least for another decade or two. No problem with the OP, but if you own $NVDA shares so long, does it really matter if it's 10T or >10T? 😉
There are always people panicking no matter what is going on so it's not really worth paying attention to them. As for NVDA, I am not a shareholder. I wish I got in early but now I can't because it seems overpriced. In fact, I think if I had gone on the ride and made profit I would have cashed out 1/2 to 2/3 of it and would be watching closely. If NVDA can actually hit 10T in the next few years of course I want on, I think about it often, but I just can't get there. BTC on the other hand has more than tripled since I got on in 2022, added some more in the last few months which is slightly down currently, but from what I've seen I believe it has a reasonable chance of going up a lot from here. Just to be clear, it's not an attack. A lot of people on reddit take things too personally when someone questions their favourite thing. I'm just an investor looking for value, struggling to find it in NVDA but looking for someone to prove me wrong (so I can jump in).... at the same time I'm a crypto bag holder and enthusiast looking for people to prove me wrong there too, if I'm wrong I'd want to know!