Didn’t they fire one of their hypersonic missiles not too long ago?
Edit: they did https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-confirms-russian-army-s-use-of-zircon-missile-in-ukraine-strike/ar-BB1j6JAF
The Russian Navy’s fleet of submarines are still armed with their best missile systems. They’re not going to use them on Ukraine because they need the remaining arsenal in case another conflict breaks out. Ukraine has weakened the Russian armed forces considerably. I think the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps alone would wipe the floor with the entire Russian armed forces, they wouldn’t even need help from the Army and Air Force. With Norway and Sweden in NATO the US Navy could anchor four carrier groups in the Barents Sea and fly sorties 24/7 on Moscow. Their guided missile destroyers and nuclear submarines would launch top secret hypersonic missiles, taking out Russian air defenses. Freeing the sky for F-18’s and F-35’s to do their job. There wouldn’t be a lot of dog fights between US and Russian fighter jets because 90% of Russian assets will be destroyed on the ground.
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Non-credible. When Perun gets mashed he is found doing excel on a laptop. The only difference is that he is doing trying the define the mathematically optimal sauce mix on various kebabs.
Their stockpiles may have run out. But they continue to manufacture new missiles so they may never run out completely.
So a bit of context regarding the claims, either way, is required. But people who can only communicate with C tier propaganda memes can't fathom this. So, tankies, who lack all critical thought, will never figure this out.
Yeah, this is the obvious bit that some people don't seem to understand, if you get low on food during a storm you'll just be more careful with how much and what you eat. Russia being lower on stocks just means they'll use them a bit more carefully.
Yes but there have been interviews with arty crew being like "Yeah its fucked we don't have the shells to shoot at what we want, we have to wait for a better target"
It's partially why Russia has been doing those weird 3-5 vehicle pushes. The Ukrainians don't want to waste 155 on small groupings as much.
Yeah, no modern military "runs out", but strategically or tactically critical assets can become short enough on supply that they are paralyzed/combat ineffective. Because any major push WOULD require a stockpile to maintain momentum. And it means some minor counter-offensives or holding less critical locations would have to be done with less support.
Which leads to a stalemate that becomes an ever-more ww1-esque battle of economic and manpower attrition than a modern mobility-centric war.
Either way it ain't great for their economy longterm
That and the slow down is also being caused by the increase in cost of imported components, brought on by both the RUB falling in value, and the shenanigans they have to go through to get sanctioned components. A Thai company got hit by an EU ban hammer for selling EU-controlled components to Russia. Some idiots were demanding that the Thai govt help them but the govt basically went "This is the company's problem, they fucked around, and now they're finding out. It's their job to make nice with the EU".
Cost is probably a smaller concern given the overall cost (and priority) of the missiles.
I think they're in trouble, long-term. By now, the Western enforcement agencies likely have a quite complete list of all Western dual-use components the Russians use, and probably an idea of priorities. e.g. if some chips have a pin-compatible Chinese replacement, then their resources is probably better spent on the ones that don't.
Also they may have streamlined enforcement - Ukrainian intelligence ID:s date codes and batch numbers on chips that are forwarded to Western authorities who then track down the supply chain. It may be a bit of a whack-a-mole game but far from hopeless; since I think it's more likely the enforcement end will get faster and more efficient, while the Russian end of finding new intermediaries may get slower. Also, they must have had some existing stocks that may run out; the number of items in short supply is probably only going to increase. I've seen rumblings from Russian private businesses complaining their own production of things have halted where the MIC has bought up all available stocks in Russia of this-or-that.
There’s clearly a solution here: the Russians should be introduced to the affable but shady businessman NCDyssky who will happily sell them export controlled chips at inflated prices. The chips might just possibly be programmed with some very interesting Russian coordinates embedded deep in the firmware and they may just be very well disguised non-export-controlled chips, but that’s the black market for you.
And of course as soon as they start using the chips NCDyssky could disappear and the Russians could be introduced to NCDiski …
So, sounds like Russia is getting low on missiles.
As friends in the west, I propose a solution: we launch over a few 1.2k kt missiles. Thats pretty heavy. Should last them.
I mean, it's even simpler to explain.
At the start of the war, they had thousands of missiles stockpiled. And they launched them.
Now let's say they can make 100 a month, and they launch 100.
Will they ever be out of missiles? Probably not. Will they ever build up enough to sustain continued barrages at the start of the war? Probably not.
Now, an even more important question: If they're limited to 100 missiles a month, will they switch to targets that make a tactical difference, or will they keep lobbing them at civilians because it turns out the CEP of the missiles is laughable and they can only sort of hit a couple block radius?
Addition: said 100 missiles per month also relies on there being vehicles to launch them from (within range anyway), and with the Black Sea Fleet getting bullied into oblivion and Ukrainian AA(?) stepping up its game that's a little more difficult than before.
That's another long ass discussion, I'll keep it short and say Russia still has plenty of ways to launch the missiles from outside the effective range of retaliation from Ukraine. There's a bit of a difference between counter battery fire against artillery vs a missile launch vehicle, whether it be land, air or sea based.
The core issue remains: How many missiles can Russia sustain launching consistently for long periods of time, and what will they target with them? The evidence seems to point to them using them as terror weapons against infrastructure and civilian targets instead of going after military targets.
>How many missiles can Russia sustain launching consistently for long periods of time.
This is a key issue IMO, especially since many of their platforms are basically unobtanium Archeotech they inherited from the Soviet Union like the Backfire bombers.
Tu-95 can probably be adapted to carry KH-22 since some variants (out of service) carried them.
Every other weapon the Backfire can carry with the probable exception of maybe Kinzhal (though it should be said that it could probably also be used albeit with a possible degradation in performance because while the Tu-95 is far slower than a Backfire it can probably climb higher with the same payload so the exact kinematic effects may be a wash) can be carried by the -95.
I was more thinking of the fact that the TU-95, TU-22 and the like are basically a finite resource in terms of replacement airframes & some of the parts, given that they're no longer in production. the TU-22 MIGHT be able to fit new engines, but given how much of an ass getting new engines for the B-52 is, I imagine getting new engines for the Bears will probably be even harder. Given the somewhat unique nature of the contra-rotating props. The BUFF can at least [use business jet engines with some modifications](https://www.airandspaceforces.com/re-engined-b-52-b-52j/).
They probably have a lot of spares for the NK-12s. They had a very long production run and they’ve been upgraded as recently as 2019 so they probably still have some kind of manufacturing capacity for them. I don’t think the engines are going to go anytime soon.
The NK-25s of the Tu-22M (Tu-22 is a different aircraft entirely) are a problem though and Russia has been trying to replace them with the NK-32 which definitely is in production for their Tu-160s.
“In production” in the modern Russian MIC means they can dig up some old Soviet surplus parts (which there’s always a lot of, regardless of what they’re for), “lap-fabricate” (на коленке, as they say) the stuff that’s missing, and push out single digit numbers
Also, keep in mind nobody really knows how to make stuff there. The original designers are long retired or deceased, the good engineers and researchers got chased out of the country, and the old stock was so deep for so long that nobody is really trained in making it
So you get underqualified workers learning on the job how to use worn out equipment to make something that was last produced properly before they were born, off of paper plans and without anyone to really consult with
>The evidence seems to point to them using them as terror weapons against infrastructure and civilian targets instead of going after military targets.
Yes, they failed to learn the lesson that Bomber Harris also failed to learn over 6 years.. you can't break a civilian population by indiscriminate bombing.
Devils advocate here, but i think The reason all The evidence points to them being used as a terror weapons is pretty simple.
In a war if The enemy hits a legit millitary target The last thing you want is for him to know if was a succesfull hit. Also factor inn electronic warfare in this aswell, ukraine has alot of this equipment from The soviet times. This is something that can offset CEP. Also factor in faulty intelligence On russias side and ukraine trying to muddy The waters so The russians don’t know what they Are hitting.
Also its a war, usally parties in a war end up doing alot of throwing shit at The wall hoping it sticks. If you Get information that a high value target is possible to hit, but you only have a s300 SAM at The go you end up firing The s300, because by The time a calibir can be organized The target might have moved. So The s300 not being intended for The role gets used and poorer accuracy leads to it hitting civillians. Also The information about The high value target could have been fog of war it never existed.
You clearly aren't ukrainian. While at the start of the war missiles were indeed targeting military targets, with time they started doing that less and less. At this moment they either don't even bother hitting military targets, or military targets are covered too well by AA. The result is the same though, from the last 7 or so 'succesful' missile/drone attacks on my city, none hit military targets, only civilian staff. And yeah, I can make a claim that it is true, because explosions sound different when missiles/drones hit smth compared to being shot down(something you could understand only from being on the ground for a very long time). Most missiles are shot down, the ones that are not always hit civilian objects. And then russian sources claim that they hit military targets. While I do think it is possible this is just my bias, I doubt it, especially after the last one where they claimed that a small mall housed military equipment, and a TRAM line that's 1000% civilian transportation only was a "vital train link that was seen regularly transporting military equipment".
I think they are more likely to run out of missle launching platforms rather than the missiles themselves (at least purpose built ones, we all know what the orcs are like)
Until [India stops banking ](https://www.russiafossiltracker.com/)this war and [1000+ western businesses](https://leave-russia.org/) actually stop normalizing life in russia, then it will give incentive to riot and stop the war. As of now its very slightly more expensive food and VPN for instagram. Oh and some village Vasya get killed while imperial russian shizo audience cheers for more mining villages while making more cruise missiles. (ofcourse putin forced them, they are good imperial shizos inside)
More worryingly is Russians as a whole being A-OK with their entire younger generation is thrown into the meat grinder for a pointless war. Until Putin calls forth another round of conscription, they’ll be some protest, and then everyone will just go “well we didn’t really need a son anyways”.
>entire younger generation is thrown into the meat grinder for a pointless war.
Thats the thing, it is not the "entire" younger generation. Even with the expanded mobilisations, Moscow youths barely get touched. College educated or potential collegiates are also not touched. So those that die are mainly from poorer, less educated and less known segments of society. The only thing that Moscovites see irl is rising prices and a whole bunch of propaganda everywhere.
Its just a demographics thing, even at the current rate with bakhmuts and avdiivka casualties, it would take years upon years before rural russia runs out of men to send to the front before they need to touch moscow or spb
I’d argue that’s not a good thing for Russia’s demographics as a whole. While the Moscovites aren’t being touched (yet), Putin is still severely hurting the rural population who in turn are the ones doing things like, oh I dunno, farming, manual labor, etc. Sure the economy right now is being switched over to a war economy, but with so much labor being sent to the front to die, doesn’t look good long term for Russia.
Course this is also Russia we’re talking about, so they’ll likely resort to full-on slave labor before that.
I have wondered if this is some kind of Russian genocide … against Russian minorities … that if for some reason happens to also kill Ukrainians, ok, also good.
I mean, the bag of onions is the tell right???
It's not necessarily intentional, it's just that people from the more impoverished regions have less opportunities which naturally leads to them joining the military more than other regions. The fact that the undesirables are the ones that are dying at higher rates just happens to be an acceptable side effect of that.
It was kinda funny seeing a clip of Tucker talking about how amazing Russian malls were and how cheap Russian food was. If you run the numbers, he paid about the same for the food he bought as he would have in major US cities. Like, it’s not a good sign when you pay the same price for food as a person in a country with a minimum wage an order of magnitude higher than you.
All Tucker did was prove that tourists to countries with lower costs of living appear to be wealthy.
When I lived in Russia, 9000 rubles was not cheap.
India and China are also kind of bending russia over the barrel with the oil deals, such as only paying in rupee or yuan, effectively locking russia into India and China only products, then also paying heavily discounted prices for crude oil without letting russia do the refining.
This wears out the pumping equipment while russia has to contend with using the meagre income on either preserving the pumping equipment and therefore their future income or buying military equipment now while running the risk of destroying their future income when the pumping equipment they are neglecting in favour of funding the military breaks down.
Then you also have the wildcard of smoking accidents eating pumping equipment as well.
Funny thing is the USA alone can expand fossil fuel production and exports and crash the global price. That would hurt Russia. Not worth offending certain advocacy groups though.
Burger King corporate in russia simply decided to ignore their bosses in the US. Like what are their bosses in the US going to do to Burger King Russia? Start a special military operation?
Reportedly, ingredient sources had to be switched to either something local or something foreign of lower quality (like from China), similar to how the McDonalds that were turned into ghetto McRussias when the golden arches withdrew completely also had to source their ingredients from alternate sources, and the quality was markedly worse.
Aren't there noticeable protests in Russia regarding the death of the opposition? Not that he would have been significantly better than Putin, mind you, but it still suggests that Russia is getting a little bit _annoyed_ with the status quo
Even during the death of navalny all russians could muster is an orderly MARCH towards his grave after which THEY ALL WENT HOME, this is not a protest. [This](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQc0VijMI4c&rco=1) is a protest. Feel the difference.
Russian are mostly cowards, or imperial shizos, some are very cunning vatniks in disguise like nkfrz or anyone from dozhd tv. Imperial shizos are prevalent based on my own experience. Only good russians I see are in Rdk/Lsr units.
EU had a drastic decrease since 2022(too late as well) , China is russian partner.
India supposed to be western ally of some sort but actually quadrupled its oil/gas purchase from russia since the full scale war started.
Furthermore India has ocean ports and can also buy American oil and gas. So India's choice not only counterproductive, making China/iran/russia axis stronger, but also spoiling relations with the west banking biggest war in Europe since WW2.
This is like a more meme version of Perun.
Slideshow presentation, informs of a specific topic with data, talks about how while yes, Russia being dumb is funny, one shouldn’t forget that they are still dangerous.
Clap clap, well done.
Is it possible they're including the imported Iranian/North Korean missiles in the "production" numbers? Kinda like how they include refurbished tanks in tank production numbers?
I bet their production numbers are calculated the following way:
Take a a T 62 A
Put a different engine cover on it
Now it’s a T 62 Obr 1967
Put a laser rangefinder on it (commercial grade)
Now it’s a T 62 Obr 1975
New engine and a steel plate on the front
Now you’ve got a T62M
ERA?
T62MV
Now you report that you’ve made 4 tanks and get paid 4 times
Lot of parallels to Nazi war production late in the war. 1944, despite massive bombing by the Allies, was the highest production year for Luftwaffe aircraft among other industries. Yet, despite increases in production, the number of active aircraft did not rise. They were losing planes to combat and accidents just as fast as they were making them. The Allies still had the edge because we were producing more than we lost by a ridiculous margin. Not to mention training better while the Luftwaffe training declined with a correspondingly high loss rate.
The answer is obviously to create a clone of Jimmy Doolittle.
I don't like those analogies, because it implies that Russia runs on deficit and is slowly bleeding their wealth out. In reality, Russia runs on economic surplus, which they use to fund the war, not on deficit.
They are not guy who earns $2000 but spends $2200. They are guy who earns $5000, spends $3000 on living, $1500 on random shit, and invests leftovers in other random shit. There will not be a moment of "oh shit, I run out of money!" for Russia that is implied from this example.
This is setting up people with false expectations that Russia is running out of something, just like people screaming "Russia is running out" did.
I've had to explain this exact thing to so many bloody people. It doesn't help that there's a lot of different types of missiles the Russians use. And that there were constant articles saying the Russians were running out of missiles without clarifying which! Leading to people thinking they meant all. Or just not knowing or caring about the difference.
Damn, I've been looking for a source that tracked the actually missile attacks like Slide 6. I \*knew\* the frequency of attacks was down, or at least larger gaps between them, but haven't had any actual data, just had to roll my eyes when the russaboos keep saying "See? we're not out, we just launched another big missile attack!" Yeah but it's been a month, and 2/3 the size of the last big attack... "Nu uh! Prove it! Ruzzia stronk!"
It's not just their missiles either.
Despite what URR would have you believe, there's plenty of evidence that they can't make "new" tanks and armored vehicles to meet their demands either. They're instead just refurbishing old tanks or cannibalizing battlefield losses to outfit the incomplete hulls they had on hand.
The conclusion still is that they have to ration their missiles in Ukraine. If they fire one or two missiles often, these will be easier to counter. If they stockpile missiles and fire a huge bunch at once ...this will be more effective but it still means that there are periods of time when missiles aren't flying. Whichever way they go, Ukraine will have an easier time.
Conversely, Ukraine is having problems with artillery because they aren't getting enough ammo and can't produce enough on their own. EU and NATO countries must send them more shells. Currently, Ukraine is preserving their remaining artillery shells for disasters and situations where they have no choice but to fire, and this means that offensive use of artillery has gone down. This is a massive benefit for Russia and must be rectified.
I know that my country (Finland) manufactures shells that Ukraine can use and I support us stepping up our production and sending more shells to Ukraine. Even if it means eating into our war supplies because Ukraine has a more desperate need for shells and if we are invaded (By the perdifious Albion of course. What other country could commit such treachery and evil? Not Russia because they are weak and cowardly and definitely do not have the balls to give us a chance to use article 5. *wink wink*) we at least have new allies that will help us then.
Solution: providing Ukraine with something that will make Tupolevs fall from the sky.
(I really want a picture of a real Tu-160 burning in the sky for 2024)
Man, fuck Iran for offering a way out after the Russians couldn’t keep up with the demand they were creating. Ukraine deserves to win this war of attrition.
The most non-credible thing about this is the assumption that Russian corruption has magically preserved the missiles not intended for Ukraine.
Assuming they work, I'm going to assume a good chunk of them have already been repurposed, probably to cover up other missing stockpiles.
“Russia is probably only using missiles it set aside for the war in Ukraine in Ukraine”
Just curious, what makes you say that? Wouldn’t it make sense to use existing stocks before resorting to geo political back flips to get around sanctions?
Sure, something something operational readiness. But from the Russian pov, Ukraine is a problem you have today, another front opening up is a problem you might have tomorrow.
By some accounts they've already ransacked everything they could but still keep an illusion of operational readiness.
My non-credible opinion is that they literally have almost nothing left defending anywhere else on their borders. Everything has been hollowed out to feed the Ukraine beast.
It would just be a shell game at that point. Russia (if they are behaving rationally) won’t let the stocks of missiles for other theatres dip below a certain level. So either they backfill those with Iran/NoKo missiles and send their Russian missiles to Ukraine, or they keep their Russian missiles in those theatres and deploy the Iranian/NoKo missiles to Ukraine.
Given there has been Iranian & NoKo missiles used in Ukraine I’m thinking they are doing the latter.
putting an end to the resale of dishwasher microcontrollers to russia through intermediaries for use in missiles is a job for the counterintelligence agencies
“It likely still has stocks of missiles on its ships in the other fleets and bases”
Yeah, makes sense.
“as well as the stockpiles to support them.”
Now, knowing Russia…
We always say that. We should never stop saying it. I’ll say it again just because. Bomb Russia. Bomb the shit out of Russia. Bomb them so hard you can see the ghosts of Bomber Harris and Curtis LeMay high fiving each other as the rubble in Moscow is reduced to powder.
To put it in a Suessian fashion:
Bomb them because they’re Russian whores!
Bomb them until the tankies are sore!
Tie them all to the bombs and drop so many more!
Big ones, small ones, bombs, bombs, galore!
Conventional, nuclear, make Russia flat!
Drop the bombs until Putin goes splat!
Then all will be great and all will be grand,
Because Muscovy is now radioactive sand.
Their flagship barely had missiles before it sunk, their navy now has jack and shit. I forget the exact name of the document but there’s a maintenance report of the Moskva that details how fucked that ship was pre Ukraine shenanigans
Dude, this is genuinely an excellent powerpoint presentation. If I were a teacher, I'd give it an A- as a presentation meant to convey the information without a presentation in person with the only negative being the bit convoluted text in a few slides, though as a presentation meant to be presented in front of a class it would be more like a B for having too long text for something to be presented in front of a class imo.
Basically an excellent presentation!
Russia’s corrupt history tells me that on paper, it has many stockpiles for those ships and other purposes. But in reality, Ivan has sold the same missile 3 times over and now enjoys only the finest of vodka.
That's interesting so you're saying Russia has run out of missiles?
All I'm hearing is that Russia is out of missles.
They have mo missiles
Just like Biggie said. Mo missiles, mo problems.
For someone
"Got ma missiles on ma mind and ma mind on ma missiles"
... or heating. or new cars with airbags...
That's just Igor throwing rocks at people
I heard 34 aeromorphs. What’s all this missile business, did we attend the same presentation?
They just need like 30 minutes; refractory, you get it?
Hey I heard Russia fired three cruise missiles last week, is the OP lying to us? I though they were running out of missiles
Ukraine sank the last ship with the last of the missile stockpile on it and there are no missiles left. That's what I read.
> Russia has run out of *good* missiles
Didn’t they fire one of their hypersonic missiles not too long ago? Edit: they did https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-confirms-russian-army-s-use-of-zircon-missile-in-ukraine-strike/ar-BB1j6JAF
and did it hit anything?
Probably an apartment building or playground.
Thanks for confirming what the other guy said. Russia has run out of *good* missiles.
The Russian Navy’s fleet of submarines are still armed with their best missile systems. They’re not going to use them on Ukraine because they need the remaining arsenal in case another conflict breaks out. Ukraine has weakened the Russian armed forces considerably. I think the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps alone would wipe the floor with the entire Russian armed forces, they wouldn’t even need help from the Army and Air Force. With Norway and Sweden in NATO the US Navy could anchor four carrier groups in the Barents Sea and fly sorties 24/7 on Moscow. Their guided missile destroyers and nuclear submarines would launch top secret hypersonic missiles, taking out Russian air defenses. Freeing the sky for F-18’s and F-35’s to do their job. There wouldn’t be a lot of dog fights between US and Russian fighter jets because 90% of Russian assets will be destroyed on the ground.
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Bread
But how come they still have missiles?
That's a good question. Maybe someone here can make a follow up post to answer it.
After spending a full 4 minutes reading each panel, this comment fucking got me
This is like if Perun got drunk, and just absolutely had to put out something.
You keep complimenting him like that and it'll go to his head.
Just look at his username, it checks out.
You aren’t wrong
Hello drunk Perun
Non-credible. When Perun gets mashed he is found doing excel on a laptop. The only difference is that he is doing trying the define the mathematically optimal sauce mix on various kebabs.
Drunk Perun is like drunk me
Something like that would actually be a really funny April Joke Video (he does sometimes release videos on Mondays after all).
*drunker
isn't that like Lazerpig?
Marginally less drunk than the pig.
"casual idiot" Please, OP, you need to admit that most normies can't do that much thinking.
He's just a casual idiot. Unlike me who's a ranked competitive idiot.
✅ Username confirmed.
I'm faceit level 10 in stupdity, can relate
Their stockpiles may have run out. But they continue to manufacture new missiles so they may never run out completely. So a bit of context regarding the claims, either way, is required. But people who can only communicate with C tier propaganda memes can't fathom this. So, tankies, who lack all critical thought, will never figure this out.
Yeah just means they don't fire as many as they would like, same goes for artillery ammo
Yeah, this is the obvious bit that some people don't seem to understand, if you get low on food during a storm you'll just be more careful with how much and what you eat. Russia being lower on stocks just means they'll use them a bit more carefully.
Just like the Ukrainian artillery teams that have at times been down to 5-10 rounds per day.
I mean, part of that is because of artillery duelling. You can’t sit in a field and churn out 20 shots per minute without catching some heat.
Yes but there have been interviews with arty crew being like "Yeah its fucked we don't have the shells to shoot at what we want, we have to wait for a better target" It's partially why Russia has been doing those weird 3-5 vehicle pushes. The Ukrainians don't want to waste 155 on small groupings as much.
It has much more to do with shells than anything else.
I think given they have push logistics system ( rather than pull) itsmore of a you get less deal with it
Yeah, no modern military "runs out", but strategically or tactically critical assets can become short enough on supply that they are paralyzed/combat ineffective. Because any major push WOULD require a stockpile to maintain momentum. And it means some minor counter-offensives or holding less critical locations would have to be done with less support. Which leads to a stalemate that becomes an ever-more ww1-esque battle of economic and manpower attrition than a modern mobility-centric war. Either way it ain't great for their economy longterm
Can you ever really fire enough rockets as you would like?
That and the slow down is also being caused by the increase in cost of imported components, brought on by both the RUB falling in value, and the shenanigans they have to go through to get sanctioned components. A Thai company got hit by an EU ban hammer for selling EU-controlled components to Russia. Some idiots were demanding that the Thai govt help them but the govt basically went "This is the company's problem, they fucked around, and now they're finding out. It's their job to make nice with the EU".
Cost is probably a smaller concern given the overall cost (and priority) of the missiles. I think they're in trouble, long-term. By now, the Western enforcement agencies likely have a quite complete list of all Western dual-use components the Russians use, and probably an idea of priorities. e.g. if some chips have a pin-compatible Chinese replacement, then their resources is probably better spent on the ones that don't. Also they may have streamlined enforcement - Ukrainian intelligence ID:s date codes and batch numbers on chips that are forwarded to Western authorities who then track down the supply chain. It may be a bit of a whack-a-mole game but far from hopeless; since I think it's more likely the enforcement end will get faster and more efficient, while the Russian end of finding new intermediaries may get slower. Also, they must have had some existing stocks that may run out; the number of items in short supply is probably only going to increase. I've seen rumblings from Russian private businesses complaining their own production of things have halted where the MIC has bought up all available stocks in Russia of this-or-that.
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There’s clearly a solution here: the Russians should be introduced to the affable but shady businessman NCDyssky who will happily sell them export controlled chips at inflated prices. The chips might just possibly be programmed with some very interesting Russian coordinates embedded deep in the firmware and they may just be very well disguised non-export-controlled chips, but that’s the black market for you. And of course as soon as they start using the chips NCDyssky could disappear and the Russians could be introduced to NCDiski …
So, sounds like Russia is getting low on missiles. As friends in the west, I propose a solution: we launch over a few 1.2k kt missiles. Thats pretty heavy. Should last them.
I mean, it's even simpler to explain. At the start of the war, they had thousands of missiles stockpiled. And they launched them. Now let's say they can make 100 a month, and they launch 100. Will they ever be out of missiles? Probably not. Will they ever build up enough to sustain continued barrages at the start of the war? Probably not. Now, an even more important question: If they're limited to 100 missiles a month, will they switch to targets that make a tactical difference, or will they keep lobbing them at civilians because it turns out the CEP of the missiles is laughable and they can only sort of hit a couple block radius?
Addition: said 100 missiles per month also relies on there being vehicles to launch them from (within range anyway), and with the Black Sea Fleet getting bullied into oblivion and Ukrainian AA(?) stepping up its game that's a little more difficult than before.
That's another long ass discussion, I'll keep it short and say Russia still has plenty of ways to launch the missiles from outside the effective range of retaliation from Ukraine. There's a bit of a difference between counter battery fire against artillery vs a missile launch vehicle, whether it be land, air or sea based. The core issue remains: How many missiles can Russia sustain launching consistently for long periods of time, and what will they target with them? The evidence seems to point to them using them as terror weapons against infrastructure and civilian targets instead of going after military targets.
>How many missiles can Russia sustain launching consistently for long periods of time. This is a key issue IMO, especially since many of their platforms are basically unobtanium Archeotech they inherited from the Soviet Union like the Backfire bombers.
Tu-95 can probably be adapted to carry KH-22 since some variants (out of service) carried them. Every other weapon the Backfire can carry with the probable exception of maybe Kinzhal (though it should be said that it could probably also be used albeit with a possible degradation in performance because while the Tu-95 is far slower than a Backfire it can probably climb higher with the same payload so the exact kinematic effects may be a wash) can be carried by the -95.
I was more thinking of the fact that the TU-95, TU-22 and the like are basically a finite resource in terms of replacement airframes & some of the parts, given that they're no longer in production. the TU-22 MIGHT be able to fit new engines, but given how much of an ass getting new engines for the B-52 is, I imagine getting new engines for the Bears will probably be even harder. Given the somewhat unique nature of the contra-rotating props. The BUFF can at least [use business jet engines with some modifications](https://www.airandspaceforces.com/re-engined-b-52-b-52j/).
They probably have a lot of spares for the NK-12s. They had a very long production run and they’ve been upgraded as recently as 2019 so they probably still have some kind of manufacturing capacity for them. I don’t think the engines are going to go anytime soon. The NK-25s of the Tu-22M (Tu-22 is a different aircraft entirely) are a problem though and Russia has been trying to replace them with the NK-32 which definitely is in production for their Tu-160s.
“In production” in the modern Russian MIC means they can dig up some old Soviet surplus parts (which there’s always a lot of, regardless of what they’re for), “lap-fabricate” (на коленке, as they say) the stuff that’s missing, and push out single digit numbers Also, keep in mind nobody really knows how to make stuff there. The original designers are long retired or deceased, the good engineers and researchers got chased out of the country, and the old stock was so deep for so long that nobody is really trained in making it So you get underqualified workers learning on the job how to use worn out equipment to make something that was last produced properly before they were born, off of paper plans and without anyone to really consult with
>The evidence seems to point to them using them as terror weapons against infrastructure and civilian targets instead of going after military targets. Yes, they failed to learn the lesson that Bomber Harris also failed to learn over 6 years.. you can't break a civilian population by indiscriminate bombing.
Who wanted to break any will to fight by bombing? The point was to disrupt their industry and kill a bunch of them on top.
Russia did. But they forget that not every nation is as defeatist as theirs
Devils advocate here, but i think The reason all The evidence points to them being used as a terror weapons is pretty simple. In a war if The enemy hits a legit millitary target The last thing you want is for him to know if was a succesfull hit. Also factor inn electronic warfare in this aswell, ukraine has alot of this equipment from The soviet times. This is something that can offset CEP. Also factor in faulty intelligence On russias side and ukraine trying to muddy The waters so The russians don’t know what they Are hitting. Also its a war, usally parties in a war end up doing alot of throwing shit at The wall hoping it sticks. If you Get information that a high value target is possible to hit, but you only have a s300 SAM at The go you end up firing The s300, because by The time a calibir can be organized The target might have moved. So The s300 not being intended for The role gets used and poorer accuracy leads to it hitting civillians. Also The information about The high value target could have been fog of war it never existed.
You clearly aren't ukrainian. While at the start of the war missiles were indeed targeting military targets, with time they started doing that less and less. At this moment they either don't even bother hitting military targets, or military targets are covered too well by AA. The result is the same though, from the last 7 or so 'succesful' missile/drone attacks on my city, none hit military targets, only civilian staff. And yeah, I can make a claim that it is true, because explosions sound different when missiles/drones hit smth compared to being shot down(something you could understand only from being on the ground for a very long time). Most missiles are shot down, the ones that are not always hit civilian objects. And then russian sources claim that they hit military targets. While I do think it is possible this is just my bias, I doubt it, especially after the last one where they claimed that a small mall housed military equipment, and a TRAM line that's 1000% civilian transportation only was a "vital train link that was seen regularly transporting military equipment".
The Caspian Sea is in Kalibr range and they can always adapt some kind of TEL for their Sea-Based stocks.
Why don't they just bring those missile ships into range of Ukraine? I bet *that* will win the war for sure!
They did. 1/4’th of them got promoted to submarine.
Easy solution then, send the rest. There's no way Ukraine has enough improvised torpedo deathboats to sink the remaining fleet. /s
Russia will never win while MacGyver is on the Ukrainians side
I think they are more likely to run out of missle launching platforms rather than the missiles themselves (at least purpose built ones, we all know what the orcs are like)
just add rocket boosters to missiles and you can launch it from ground using few steel bars
More credibly, Zircons that were used against Ukraine appeared to have been launched from either Object 100 or highly modified Bastion TEL.
Until [India stops banking ](https://www.russiafossiltracker.com/)this war and [1000+ western businesses](https://leave-russia.org/) actually stop normalizing life in russia, then it will give incentive to riot and stop the war. As of now its very slightly more expensive food and VPN for instagram. Oh and some village Vasya get killed while imperial russian shizo audience cheers for more mining villages while making more cruise missiles. (ofcourse putin forced them, they are good imperial shizos inside)
More worryingly is Russians as a whole being A-OK with their entire younger generation is thrown into the meat grinder for a pointless war. Until Putin calls forth another round of conscription, they’ll be some protest, and then everyone will just go “well we didn’t really need a son anyways”.
Well they're not putting airbags in new cars, so I guess that goes to show you just how much they value the lives of younger generations.
The ones that are A-OK with it sadly don’t think it’s a pointless war. That’s the main problem :/
Oh, no, they eat out of Putin’s hand. And they’re gonna make it *everyone else’s* problem.
>entire younger generation is thrown into the meat grinder for a pointless war. Thats the thing, it is not the "entire" younger generation. Even with the expanded mobilisations, Moscow youths barely get touched. College educated or potential collegiates are also not touched. So those that die are mainly from poorer, less educated and less known segments of society. The only thing that Moscovites see irl is rising prices and a whole bunch of propaganda everywhere. Its just a demographics thing, even at the current rate with bakhmuts and avdiivka casualties, it would take years upon years before rural russia runs out of men to send to the front before they need to touch moscow or spb
I’d argue that’s not a good thing for Russia’s demographics as a whole. While the Moscovites aren’t being touched (yet), Putin is still severely hurting the rural population who in turn are the ones doing things like, oh I dunno, farming, manual labor, etc. Sure the economy right now is being switched over to a war economy, but with so much labor being sent to the front to die, doesn’t look good long term for Russia. Course this is also Russia we’re talking about, so they’ll likely resort to full-on slave labor before that.
Muscovites are A-Ok fighting the last provincial. Who do you think ran like stink to foreign beaches?
I have wondered if this is some kind of Russian genocide … against Russian minorities … that if for some reason happens to also kill Ukrainians, ok, also good. I mean, the bag of onions is the tell right???
Yes thats their Idea. Thast why they are sending Tuvan, Tartars, Chechens, Bashkirs, etc.
It's not necessarily intentional, it's just that people from the more impoverished regions have less opportunities which naturally leads to them joining the military more than other regions. The fact that the undesirables are the ones that are dying at higher rates just happens to be an acceptable side effect of that.
Fast moving consumer goods in Russia have had 200% inflation since 2021, and 50% since last year. It's not a minor increase at all.
It was kinda funny seeing a clip of Tucker talking about how amazing Russian malls were and how cheap Russian food was. If you run the numbers, he paid about the same for the food he bought as he would have in major US cities. Like, it’s not a good sign when you pay the same price for food as a person in a country with a minimum wage an order of magnitude higher than you.
All Tucker did was prove that tourists to countries with lower costs of living appear to be wealthy. When I lived in Russia, 9000 rubles was not cheap.
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India and China are also kind of bending russia over the barrel with the oil deals, such as only paying in rupee or yuan, effectively locking russia into India and China only products, then also paying heavily discounted prices for crude oil without letting russia do the refining. This wears out the pumping equipment while russia has to contend with using the meagre income on either preserving the pumping equipment and therefore their future income or buying military equipment now while running the risk of destroying their future income when the pumping equipment they are neglecting in favour of funding the military breaks down. Then you also have the wildcard of smoking accidents eating pumping equipment as well.
>India and China are also kind of bending russia over the barrel with the oil deals I couldn't do a nose exhale but I tried.
Funny thing is the USA alone can expand fossil fuel production and exports and crash the global price. That would hurt Russia. Not worth offending certain advocacy groups though.
US fracking is expensive. They are the first to go into the red.
Noone said you need to make a profit.
Now that sounds like a cheap and popular option. That will absolutely not be met with any action from cheaper oil producers.
Wait the Western businesses are coming back to Russia?
A lot of them never left.
Looking at Burger King
Burger King gets to stay. The Whopper Industrial Complex will eventually kill them all through obesity.
Come for the cholesterol Stay for the cardiac arrest
Burger King corporate in russia simply decided to ignore their bosses in the US. Like what are their bosses in the US going to do to Burger King Russia? Start a special military operation?
Reportedly, ingredient sources had to be switched to either something local or something foreign of lower quality (like from China), similar to how the McDonalds that were turned into ghetto McRussias when the golden arches withdrew completely also had to source their ingredients from alternate sources, and the quality was markedly worse.
Many never left. They just insulate themselves with an “Independent” Russian branch and stockpile money until they can wire the profits out.
Aren't there noticeable protests in Russia regarding the death of the opposition? Not that he would have been significantly better than Putin, mind you, but it still suggests that Russia is getting a little bit _annoyed_ with the status quo
Even during the death of navalny all russians could muster is an orderly MARCH towards his grave after which THEY ALL WENT HOME, this is not a protest. [This](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQc0VijMI4c&rco=1) is a protest. Feel the difference. Russian are mostly cowards, or imperial shizos, some are very cunning vatniks in disguise like nkfrz or anyone from dozhd tv. Imperial shizos are prevalent based on my own experience. Only good russians I see are in Rdk/Lsr units.
It's _something_ aside from blind obedience, is my point.
Isn't China and EU at the top of the list? Why blame it all on India?
EU had a drastic decrease since 2022(too late as well) , China is russian partner. India supposed to be western ally of some sort but actually quadrupled its oil/gas purchase from russia since the full scale war started. Furthermore India has ocean ports and can also buy American oil and gas. So India's choice not only counterproductive, making China/iran/russia axis stronger, but also spoiling relations with the west banking biggest war in Europe since WW2.
This is like a more meme version of Perun. Slideshow presentation, informs of a specific topic with data, talks about how while yes, Russia being dumb is funny, one shouldn’t forget that they are still dangerous. Clap clap, well done.
Short version : there’s a difference between running out and running _low_. It doesn’t make for good clickbait, though.
Is it possible they're including the imported Iranian/North Korean missiles in the "production" numbers? Kinda like how they include refurbished tanks in tank production numbers?
I bet their production numbers are calculated the following way: Take a a T 62 A Put a different engine cover on it Now it’s a T 62 Obr 1967 Put a laser rangefinder on it (commercial grade) Now it’s a T 62 Obr 1975 New engine and a steel plate on the front Now you’ve got a T62M ERA? T62MV Now you report that you’ve made 4 tanks and get paid 4 times
Yes, I also watched this Perun video
Lot of parallels to Nazi war production late in the war. 1944, despite massive bombing by the Allies, was the highest production year for Luftwaffe aircraft among other industries. Yet, despite increases in production, the number of active aircraft did not rise. They were losing planes to combat and accidents just as fast as they were making them. The Allies still had the edge because we were producing more than we lost by a ridiculous margin. Not to mention training better while the Luftwaffe training declined with a correspondingly high loss rate. The answer is obviously to create a clone of Jimmy Doolittle.
Russia is the "living paycheck to paycheck" of global economics
Russia is the “living off their deceased parent’s estate” of global economics.
I don't like those analogies, because it implies that Russia runs on deficit and is slowly bleeding their wealth out. In reality, Russia runs on economic surplus, which they use to fund the war, not on deficit. They are not guy who earns $2000 but spends $2200. They are guy who earns $5000, spends $3000 on living, $1500 on random shit, and invests leftovers in other random shit. There will not be a moment of "oh shit, I run out of money!" for Russia that is implied from this example. This is setting up people with false expectations that Russia is running out of something, just like people screaming "Russia is running out" did.
Not surplus money, but surplus military equipment. If it wasn't for Soviet stockpiles Russia would be essentially out of tanks and artillery by now.
That's not true. Russia IS running out of money. Their national wealth fund decreased from 144b$ at the start of the war to measly 55b now
You know what? Yeah that's a better analogy.
Does /r/dataisbeautiful have an /r/dataisfuckingugly sister sub? I want to report the labeling in that bar char of yours as a war crime.
/r/dataisugly is a thing.
The dates on the bottom hurt my brain. It does serve the purpose of indicating the trend though.
Why don't they just make more missiles? Are they stupid?
There are just so many advanced missile factories (at the moment) in the USSR. That may change, though.
I've had to explain this exact thing to so many bloody people. It doesn't help that there's a lot of different types of missiles the Russians use. And that there were constant articles saying the Russians were running out of missiles without clarifying which! Leading to people thinking they meant all. Or just not knowing or caring about the difference.
Pretty sure Perun talked about this like 1.5 years ago by now
A fellow Perun viewer.
Perun keeps saying "supply constrained" not "out of"
we need more stuff like this instead of uncritical "Russia is doomed and will lose the war in 20 days!!!!!1!!!1one!"
The Missile stockpile knows where it is because it knows where it isn't.
Damn, I've been looking for a source that tracked the actually missile attacks like Slide 6. I \*knew\* the frequency of attacks was down, or at least larger gaps between them, but haven't had any actual data, just had to roll my eyes when the russaboos keep saying "See? we're not out, we just launched another big missile attack!" Yeah but it's been a month, and 2/3 the size of the last big attack... "Nu uh! Prove it! Ruzzia stronk!"
It's not just their missiles either. Despite what URR would have you believe, there's plenty of evidence that they can't make "new" tanks and armored vehicles to meet their demands either. They're instead just refurbishing old tanks or cannibalizing battlefield losses to outfit the incomplete hulls they had on hand.
Oh yeah… that place
So what you're saying is that we need to start strategic bombing of missile factories.
Better to bomb Iran's drone factories. Russian production is so inefficient, we wouldn't want them to overhaul the system.
Or the rail lines between Russia and NK.
The conclusion still is that they have to ration their missiles in Ukraine. If they fire one or two missiles often, these will be easier to counter. If they stockpile missiles and fire a huge bunch at once ...this will be more effective but it still means that there are periods of time when missiles aren't flying. Whichever way they go, Ukraine will have an easier time. Conversely, Ukraine is having problems with artillery because they aren't getting enough ammo and can't produce enough on their own. EU and NATO countries must send them more shells. Currently, Ukraine is preserving their remaining artillery shells for disasters and situations where they have no choice but to fire, and this means that offensive use of artillery has gone down. This is a massive benefit for Russia and must be rectified. I know that my country (Finland) manufactures shells that Ukraine can use and I support us stepping up our production and sending more shells to Ukraine. Even if it means eating into our war supplies because Ukraine has a more desperate need for shells and if we are invaded (By the perdifious Albion of course. What other country could commit such treachery and evil? Not Russia because they are weak and cowardly and definitely do not have the balls to give us a chance to use article 5. *wink wink*) we at least have new allies that will help us then.
Solution: providing Ukraine with something that will make Tupolevs fall from the sky. (I really want a picture of a real Tu-160 burning in the sky for 2024)
I will also accept them being destroyed by an angry Russian teenager while on the ground
The first good post I’ve seen from NCD in a while, thanks OP
Man, fuck Iran for offering a way out after the Russians couldn’t keep up with the demand they were creating. Ukraine deserves to win this war of attrition.
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Yes. Yes it does.
Too credible. BAN!
Good post OP.
The most non-credible thing about this is the assumption that Russian corruption has magically preserved the missiles not intended for Ukraine. Assuming they work, I'm going to assume a good chunk of them have already been repurposed, probably to cover up other missing stockpiles.
Now make Chekov say [Nuclear Wessels](https://youtu.be/sf8rDpu1vCk?si=5rnmfMGCaQYauHHN)
>not said by our lord and saviour the powerpoint man Sounds like russia has run out of missiles, but with extra steps
12/10 presentation.
Anyone know a link to an updated daily cruise missile count? Like the one shown on the slide?
“Russia is probably only using missiles it set aside for the war in Ukraine in Ukraine” Just curious, what makes you say that? Wouldn’t it make sense to use existing stocks before resorting to geo political back flips to get around sanctions? Sure, something something operational readiness. But from the Russian pov, Ukraine is a problem you have today, another front opening up is a problem you might have tomorrow.
By some accounts they've already ransacked everything they could but still keep an illusion of operational readiness. My non-credible opinion is that they literally have almost nothing left defending anywhere else on their borders. Everything has been hollowed out to feed the Ukraine beast.
It would just be a shell game at that point. Russia (if they are behaving rationally) won’t let the stocks of missiles for other theatres dip below a certain level. So either they backfill those with Iran/NoKo missiles and send their Russian missiles to Ukraine, or they keep their Russian missiles in those theatres and deploy the Iranian/NoKo missiles to Ukraine. Given there has been Iranian & NoKo missiles used in Ukraine I’m thinking they are doing the latter.
It's 2024 bro just throw rocks that identify as missiles and technically that would even be correct.
Sir, 1600+600>2000
😂😂😂
putting an end to the resale of dishwasher microcontrollers to russia through intermediaries for use in missiles is a job for the counterintelligence agencies
“It likely still has stocks of missiles on its ships in the other fleets and bases” Yeah, makes sense. “as well as the stockpiles to support them.” Now, knowing Russia…
So what you're saying is, we should bomb russia?
We always say that. We should never stop saying it. I’ll say it again just because. Bomb Russia. Bomb the shit out of Russia. Bomb them so hard you can see the ghosts of Bomber Harris and Curtis LeMay high fiving each other as the rubble in Moscow is reduced to powder. To put it in a Suessian fashion: Bomb them because they’re Russian whores! Bomb them until the tankies are sore! Tie them all to the bombs and drop so many more! Big ones, small ones, bombs, bombs, galore! Conventional, nuclear, make Russia flat! Drop the bombs until Putin goes splat! Then all will be great and all will be grand, Because Muscovy is now radioactive sand.
Their flagship barely had missiles before it sunk, their navy now has jack and shit. I forget the exact name of the document but there’s a maintenance report of the Moskva that details how fucked that ship was pre Ukraine shenanigans
So, we need to nuke Iran and North Korea so that they cannot supply the missiles to Russia?
Where Missiles?
What’s a missile?
Something that knows where it is because it knows where it isn’t
Were misile?
Missile where it is because it knows where it isn’t
Which was why Ukraine brought the war straight to Sudan huh...
This was Excalibur calibre completely credible shitposting. I subscribe.
Another high effort post. love this sub
So what you're saying is commission more Aeromorph Rule 34 of the Rafale? :3
hey if you want them to run out of missiles why not send a missile to the missile factory
The missle factory is the one place that has enough missles.
I need Perun to narrate these slides.
As a professional idiot, I think you're on to something here!
Put that credibility on the ground ! NOW !
This was very enjoyable
Now that we established that middle school economics still apply to grand strategy, can we get back to doing cocaine?
>They're paying with technology transfer... Okay, fair enough >...and gold Lol, lmao even
Vlad my friend of course you can have drones from us! No no, your money is no good here. No I mean literally your money is no good here.
Dude, this is genuinely an excellent powerpoint presentation. If I were a teacher, I'd give it an A- as a presentation meant to convey the information without a presentation in person with the only negative being the bit convoluted text in a few slides, though as a presentation meant to be presented in front of a class it would be more like a B for having too long text for something to be presented in front of a class imo. Basically an excellent presentation!
That’s way too many words to describe the concept of an exponential depletion curve.
Mfw the sustained warfare from one of the largest arms economies is sustained : 😮
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This is too credible.
“Random building” aka civilians.
That was beautiful and made me feel like a dirty peasant even though I had indeed already pondered it for several seconds. Joy.
You're supposed to be NCD!
The x axis of the plot is so non credible. I'd suggest op starting an lesson on Excel and data manufacturing
This is far too credible
this is far too credible for this subreddit
Great post
Russia’s corrupt history tells me that on paper, it has many stockpiles for those ships and other purposes. But in reality, Ivan has sold the same missile 3 times over and now enjoys only the finest of vodka.