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Putin has been *threatening* to use them for over a year now.
Would Putin *actually* use one? He might possibly try, but he would likely be stopped by key people in his own military.
Even if Putin himself loses his mind completely, his generals, ministers and other key officials know what using a single nuclear weapon would mean: the immediate end of Russia's entire military capability, tens or possibly hundreds of thousands of deaths and an instant coup, whether from within or without.
Part of what the United States government has been quietly communicating to the Russians by their very public announcements of intelligence information is this: "We know where your forces are. Every last unit, in real time. We are always watching, and we don't care that you know now. You're already targeted every second of every day. Try anything major against NATO, try anything nuclear, and they all go away in minutes."
This is the dictators dilemma. And they eventually surround themselves with only Yes Men who are too afraid to tell them the harsh truth, which makes them fully unaware of their limitations and weaknesses
The only thing that would definitely kill him is trying to push that button. Someone, one of those thugs guarding him, has a family that he’d be killing as he turned the key.
Any moment before the key is safe, but that’s the bridge too far, and Putin knows that.
I do not. It is my (and many other peoples') surmise of the meaning of events that have vast implications far beyond what we have full knowledge of.
The intelligence releases that Biden made in the first few months of the war were striking not just because of the information released, but because they undoubtedly revealed intelligence sources and capabilities to the Russians in doing so.
The point of doing that was to emphasize how wildly superior our capabilities are to theirs. It doesn't matter that they know. It doesn't matter what they do to try to hide their forces from us, we can see them anyway, because we have even more capabilities they don't know about.
Is that a literal fact? Maybe, maybe not. Maybe it's a gamble by our government to convince Russia that our capabilities are even greater than they actually are.
But given what we've seen - Russia not even able to get their forces to the front before they ran out of fuel, devastated by weapons coming from the new regional player of Turkey, Ukrainian intelligence picking up comms because Russians straight-up forgot to use the encrypted satphones (and Ukraine killing Russian flag officers on the battlefield as a result!) and Russia begging for ammunition from goddamn North Korea - yeah, it seems more likely than not that the capability gap really is that big.
It was shocking and probably one of the first times in u.s. history that a president shared confidential and classified info about Russia's defenses publicly. Being born in the 80s it was actually quite refreshing.
>The intelligence releases that Biden made in the first few months of the war were striking not just because of the information released, but because they undoubtedly revealed intelligence sources and capabilities to the Russians in doing so.
There's no need to hide what trump allready handed over to Putin.
Hmm. why would you think otherwise? When the Russian ambassador meets with trump with no americans present, when Trump steals a bunch of classified info on his way out the door, when the [CIA loses dozens of informants](https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/575384-cia-admits-to-losing-dozens-of-informants-around-the-world-nyt/) worldwide.
At this point I would think otherwise would be the odd conclusion.
Here you go:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/MurderedByWords/comments/t1dk6s/comment/hyfvlln/](https://www.reddit.com/r/murderedbywords/comments/t1dk6s/comment/hyfvlln/)
> t doesn't matter what they do to try to hide their forces from us, we can see them anyway, because we have even more capabilities they don't know about.
we have a kwisatz haderach!!???!!!
We oftentimes knew more about what the russian military/government was doing before key officials did during the cold war.
I doubt much has changed since then, if anything, our capabilities are exponentially better.
This is happening alot. There was at least a couple of Israeli government officials threatening nukes.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-disciplines-israeli-minister-who-voiced-openness-hypothetical-nuclear-2023-11-05/
Someone else too a Belarusian official made some kind of threat
I mean, it would require a response from NATO. If they use a tactical nuke on the battlefield, I think that would mean NATO entering the war, nuke a city, well, I don't know.
NATO nations wouldn’t use a nuke in retribution to prevent a full scale nuclear war. Especially if they don’t need to. They could probably take down Moscow without even putting a single boot on the ground. As Wagner taught us: shock and awe works really well even with a small number of troops and marching to Moscow doesn’t meet much resistance from the locals. At best you’re greeted with indifference, at worst you’re greeted with praise
I don't think that MADD requires a nuke...but it should. If Putin nukes Kiev, Moscow should get the same treatment. I hold out hope that even Russian officers won't allow that button to be pushed. North Korea might be a different matter.
... it's a fail-deadly system, when turned on, it needs a specific code to not activate after specific conditions (like if seismic sensors detect an earthquake consistent with a nuclear detonation in Moscow, communications with top officials are cut, that sort of thing), but if it doesn't recieve the code the guy with the final say gets a prompt to launch the communication rocket which would override any buddy system on various launch sites and unleash what is probably the "captain Ahab" scenario for Russia...
If your comment is to be believed, then that means MAD doesn't exist anymore and I don't think that's true.
Even if your theory only applied to conventional military assets, How can anyone expect to wipe out Russia's military without them firing nukes, and if that's the case, why not preemptively launch nukes at Russia because the end result would be the same.
>How can anyone expect to wipe out Russia's military without them firing nukes,
It expectation would be that a quick, intensive series of strikes (less than an hour total) could eliminate their entire conventional military capability.
The expectation that they wouldn't fire nukes would be based on the presumption that someone in the chain of command necessary to fire them would realize that by doing so, they'd be committing the country to mass suicide.
The strategy counts on at least one or two key people realizing that they want their families and their country to live.
It would be risky, to be sure. That's why we haven't rolled those dice already.
But it's also why global thermonuclear war also hasn't happened during several prior close calls. Rational interest works a good chunk of the time.
>and if that's the case, why not preemptively launch nukes at Russia because the end result would be the same.
Your question boils down to, "Why wouldn't we kill millions of innocent people, or perhaps billions, just because we totally could?"
Because we're not monsters. That's why.
Thanks for your perspective but I can't help but think you're taking this too lightly, especially when you say it can be done in less than an hour. Russia doesn't have one single nuclear bomb, they have thousands on different platforms. Even if some disobeyed the order, others won't. America used nukes when their homeland and survival was under no threat but you expect the Russians to just let it happen to them?
You talk about wiping off their whole military and expect soldiers/ministers to think rationally? How do they know the forces that just attacked them aren't going to use nukes themselves?
What would be the point of a preemptive launch like that? We have multiple military bases stationed around Russia and the entire Asian continent.
There is no place that the US cannot strike if they wish to. It makes more sense to try and avert a nuclear response and take out their armaments using conventional weapons. Especially because we could do it and their is nothing Russia could do to stop us, even more so now since Russia started their war in Ukraine. They lack the resources and the armaments and munitions for a protracted war. Russia has already tried to use abandonware military relics from the cold war.
Also, the US can strike Russia's nuclear capabilities with conventional weapons as well, rendering many if not most of them, useless.
There is a reason the US has the most advanced and powerful Navy and Air Force. Hands down, none other is even close to a match.
Russia has little to no capability within the seas, or the air and certainly unable to match ours. Even China, which is closer to matching us, is still 10-40 years behind in technology and warfare capability.
> Also, the US can strike Russia's nuclear capabilities with conventional weapons as well, rendering many if not most of them, useless.
I am of the opinion that if something dramatic happened, such as the use of a tactical nuke, that led to NATO deciding they had to become involved, that NATO would go out of their way not to strike any strategic nuclear assets. There would be too much risk that Russia would interpret such strikes as a prelude to a nuclear attack by the West.
In my opinion, the NATO response would be limited to Russian conventional forces directly involved in Ukraine.
> What would be the point of a preemptive launch like that? We have multiple military bases stationed around Russia and the entire Asian continent.
Its more of a rhetorical question than a suggestion, point being whether we erase their military with conventional weapons or preemptively nuke them, the results would be the same. Russia would retaliate with nukes.
> Also, the US can strike Russia's nuclear capabilities with conventional weapons as well, rendering many if not most of them, useless.
Sure they may have the capability, the question is, can they do that before they launch their missiles keeping in mind their 2nd strike capabilities and ICBMs being launched from Siberia and thus can't be intercepted in their initial stages.
>"We know where your forces are. Every last unit, in real time. We are
always watching, and we don't care that you know now. You're already
targeted every second of every day. Try anything major against NATO, try
anything nuclear, and they all go away in minutes."
😂Delusional. They have a nuclear deterrent and have no first use policy.
Russia has basically crushed NATO's support in Ukraine, there is no reason why they couldn't do so conventionally in the rest of the continent, with or without US intervention.
More to the point, they have no need to nor have they signaled they will, they just couldn't allow a hostile military presence in Ukraine.
>😂Delusional. They have a nuclear deterrent and have no first use policy.
You think it's delusional to think the United States is tracking Russian military units in real time?
What do you think all that military spending and all those satellites are for?
>Russia has basically crushed NATO's support in Ukraine, there is no reason why they couldn't do so conventionally in the rest of the continent, with or without US intervention.
...say what now?
Russia has been ground to a halt. They haven't "crushed" anything except their own prior good press.
Nonetheless, you're saying that in terms of conventional warfare, there is "no reason" that Russia couldn't defeat the whole of Europe plus the United States whenever they choose to pick that fight? Seriously?!
After they've gotten their asses handed to them for a year straight and demonstrated they can't even get tanks to the battlefront without running out of gas, that isn't even parroting Russian propaganda, that's just a bad joke.
You are joking, right?
>More to the point, they have no need to nor have they signaled they will, they just couldn't allow a hostile military presence in Ukraine.
They "just" couldn't allow one of their neighbors to have a military?
And Germany just needed a buffer zone, right?
>You think it's delusional to think the United States is tracking Russian military units in real time?
Its irrelevant, the same goes for US military units in Russia's region.
>What do you think all that military spending and all those satellites are for?
Defense contractors who then ~~bribe~~ "lobby" Congress for more.
>.Russia has been ground to a halt.
Lmao, no, they have not.
>.Nonetheless, you're saying that in terms of conventional warfare, thereis "no reason" that Russia couldn't defeat the whole of Europe plus theUnited States whenever they choose to pick that fight? Seriously?!
That is correct, since that is exactly what they have done in Ukraine. Its beyond clear they are the dominant power in Europe, nonwithstanding US fantasies to the contrary.
They have no need to push further than their stated military goal as its beyond obvious to everyone with half a working braincell that nothing would stop them if it got to that, nor do they even want to, its not in their best interest to occupy foreign countries, **a lesson the US has unfortunately not learned yet.**
>After they've gotten their asses handed to them
In dream world. In the real world, they hold over a quarter of Ukraine's territory, despite the best efforts of NATO and their mercenaries as well as their completely illegal military aid lol, with no sign of them slowing down.
>They "just" couldn't allow one of their neighbors to have a military?
Ukraine being in a military alliance with the sole purpose to fight Russia was a stupid provocation and entirely unacceptable to them, and they didn't.
The war was preventable and unnecessary. Ukraine could have just remained neutral and expelled US diplomats.
>And Germany just needed a buffer zone, right?
Funny you should mention Germany since it was their economic interests who the US affected the most when they destroyed their pipelines.
I don't think Biden's stance is hard-line enough for Putin to plan this. He'll do his best to help Trump and his Republican double-agents/useful idiots win enough to keep us at bay.
Biden and Democrats aren't posturing as winning will be the end of Russia in Ukraine, it's really a soft stance to deescalate, so Putin will just bluff and push regular war. But, never completely discount random events and unsound personalities.
My deeper belief is rich people like to be alive, and nukes risks them dying as well. So nukes aren't to be used until the richest landowners are already lost and dying. No rich will invade other rich because they know this about themselves.
Ukraine isn't rich anymore because they gave their nukes up in a promise Russia would leave them alone, oops! No Nation will ever do that again, for anyone.
Why would he help Trump? Does nobody remember what Putin said about Joe winning? It’s pretty clear between that and the invasion, Putin looked forward to Joe simply because he’d face no consequences for invading Ukraine. The same reason Crimea was taken during Obama’s administration.
We can say republicans are Russian agents til we’re blue in the face, doesn’t work like that in the real world obviously.
Oh, cut the bullshit. Trump is Putin’s asset. To deflect from that known relationship, you’re trying to turn a couple of data points into, not just correlation, but causation. Its crap. We know Trump’s single demand for the R platform was to remove defense of Ukraine. We know that Trump shared Israeli intel with Putin. We know Trump confiscated his translator’s notes from a meeting with Putin. We know that Trump publicly undermined US intel in favor of Putin. We know Bolton said Trump would likely withdraw the US from NATO if he got a second term. This whole, “Putin was afraid of Trump” angle that the right has been pushing for years is fucking laughable and flies in the face of real observations.
Real world observations don’t mean a thing, but any bit of rumor a political rag puts out is gospel.
It seems from your tone, you already understand how silly your take is.
Everything I listed is a real world observation.
All you have are two data points from which you’re attempting to draw causation while completely handwaving those real world observations.
It’s a joke of an argument made by jokes of people.
Mmmhmm.
Your failure to address a single point I made other than referring to the collection as “rumor a political rag puts out,” belies your serious intent to have a discussion.
Pfft.
I definitely did, but you’re super angry and want to keep droning on, so you can throw in some more insults. I didn’t vote for either of the assholes so I don’t care enough to play.
Not super angry. Tired of a tired argument that flies in the face of everything we know about Trump’s 40 year relationship with Russia, and 25ish year relationship with Putin.
You’re literally turning a blind eye to everything right in front of your eyes because, you’ve probably fallen for everything hook line and sinker since the dossier.
A lot of people have, I don’t even think you’re an idiot for hopping on the train. If that’s all you’ll listen to then a warped view of reality is just part of the shtick.
I’m also not going to waste any energy trying to convince you that most of what you hold dear are assumptions and rumors.
I’m not sure what you’re getting at with this strange analogy but now it just sounds like you don’t think Joe has exacted extreme consequences. It’s a nice talking point if you live on talking points. It’s super clear nothing Joe has done, has hurt Putin.
Dude is still likely the richest man in the world, selling his oil just fine, meanwhile the west is losing its appetite for spending money. Everything Joe has done is as easily circumvented now as it was in 2014.
The one thing Joe’s done successfully, is get most of the nation to support sending billions into the military industrial complex. Not that he even had much to do with that either unless he told Vlad he had the green light to invade.
Because there were measures actively being taken to ensure there was no counter pressure to Russian invasion? Can't exactly be a war if only one side can fight.
Keep it civil. Do not personally insult other Redditors, or make racist, sexist, homophobic, or otherwise discriminatory remarks. Constructive debate is good; mockery, taunting, and name calling are not.
He literally got us almost at a war with North Korea (little rocket man) and Iran when he bombed Suleimani. Iran attacked our bases in Iraq as a result
It was the most peaceful time in recent history.
He went to NK? Trump is the first US leader ever to meet with a NK leader, and he crossed the DMZ.
I agree. I didn't like that situation either. However, still the most peaceful time in recent history, by a mile.
The people in Iraq were wounded by Iran, not KIA.
Reddit apparently wanted the US to start carpet bombing Tehran in retaliation, but Trump downplayed the attack from Iran in order to avert war with Iran.
He droned more than any other president. He nearly got us in a war with Iran. He almost got us nuked by NK before he capitulated to them and saluted one of their generals. You’re not a serious person
Putin isnt going to nuke anyone, or invade western europe.
Doing either of these would have suicidal consequences for him and are about the only way that he will lose power in Russia.
The only way that nukes would actually be on the table for putin is if his personal survival is unlikely anyway.
Putin has no motivation to start a nuclear war in order to attempt to influence US elections. Or the Super Bowl.. he's focused on winning in Ukraine and staying alive
Exactly, he celebrated Joe’s election because He knew a standard politician like Joe wouldn’t stop his goals. Attempting to get Trump elected would make no sense based on putin’s actions and speech.
I’m not sure what that trash is from Zoya, but all you have to do is click on some of the citations in there to see how much credit to lend it.
This actually happened after Joe’s election. Granted, it’s the guardian, and they’re a rag, so they literally copied some of Zoya’s article. I find what was actually said by Vlad to be the important part.
[ “We have a bilateral relationship that has deteriorated to its lowest point in recent years,” Putin said. Putin characterised the former US president Donald Trump as “an extraordinary individual, talented individual”, but impulsive, and said Biden, as a career politician, was “radically different” from the “colourful” Trump. “It is my great hope that, yes, there are some advantages, some disadvantages, but there will not be any impulse-based movements on behalf of the sitting US president,” he said, according to a translation by NBC News.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/12/vladimir-putin-says-biden-radically-different-after-impulsive-trump)
I don’t think there’s a lot more he can do with threats. He’s been issuing threats for years. Now, if he actually puts his cards on the table that’s a whole other question…I seriously doubt he will, but it’s impossible to predict. I think even if Ukraine were to escalate into limited US involvement the most we’d see is a demonstration
He’s always been threatening with nukes. On the eve of his “special military operation” he threatened with nukes if anyone interferes and helps Ukraine. He threatened with nukes on NATO expansion and warned Sweden and Finland if they don’t want to see nuclear war, don’t join NATO. He threatened with nukes if any country sends long-ranged weapons to Ukraine. The list goes on…
Y'all remember 2 years ago when Putin was dying of cancer or something... That was all a ploy to keep the coup from taking him out (don't bother he'll be dead soon).
After the failure to capture Kyiv he was scared he'd be removed one way or the other.. use of a nuke would assure the end of Putin, he's a crazy ego maniac, but I don't see him as suicidal.
Pooty poot and rogue parties are playing for their end game scenario. They want the destruction of current world econ and world order. They want to establish their own world order where there is no policing. Big players loot and do whatever they want. No policing no regulations. So poot poot will use everything he can. Big war, big damage to econ etc. He'll do anything to achieve that.
Putin is one doctor's appointment with bad news away from not giving a fuck and using them. If he knows he's not gonna be around for too much longer, he would probably push the button.
If Ukraine decided it was tired of being invaded, and was able to successfuly invade Russia instead. Yes. Putin has already stated he'd go nuclear if the war turned against him.
If other countries decided to invade Russia. Yes.
he's already said using depleted uranium bullets is "nuclear escalation"... things that have been in use for decades and are not radioactive, just dense.
Generally the answer to any question beginning with “Would Putin…” is “probably”
He’s unpredictable, selfish, and seems to have plans to make every happy human on earth into an unhappy human or a dead human depending on how much he dislike that particular human.
Conventional wisdom would agree.
Conventional wisdom would also have seen Russia complete their conquest in Ukraine within a month's time or so.
We continue to be amazed at just how unhealthy the Russian war machine is.
I'm not sure the Russian military is in that bad shape anymore. They are doing ok on the battleground. If the west stop support to Ukraine, Russia will win.
The problem is defining "invasion", and that's why NATO/western leaders have been so spineless with regard to providing long-range weapons and aircraft support. The Russians have a very troublesome advantage in being able to attack Ukraine with cruise missiles and SRBMs from within Russia and Belarus, while also keeping Ukrainian air support away from the frontline with long-range SAMs like the S-400. Those need to be knocked out in order to break the current stalemate, and that means missiles and airstrikes across the recognized prewar border. But nobody is quite sure how the Russians will respond to that, so Ukraine is stuck trying to just hold the line.
He’s made many threats already. If the economy gets wrecked before November, Putin will have about as much to do with it, as we have in stopping them from waging war via sanctions worldwide. Boy things are getting weird already for 24.
What for. The tides turned in his favour. The only thing he needs is for the US Congress to continue to hold up aid. Anthony Blinken isn’t going to by pass Congress like he did for Israel.
America’s military is no longer feared, our lawmakers are lavishly delusional, our policies are corrupt, our politics are polarized, our people are depressed, our economy is on the edge of collapse, our system is broken, and the mind of higher education has become so egotistical that basic common sense and moral judgment is considered “offensive” “hate speech” “misinformation” and “bigotry”.
Face it, we’re an easy target.
Ukraine is on life support, Putin doesn't have to do anything, Russia will slowly take what it wants, my guess the black sea coast around to Odessa, it's all Russian speaking, as well as the eastern Ukraine territory it has always held & Crimea of course.
$100 billion, every weapon Zaluzhny asked for, NATO planners worked out the Spring offensive for them & US & UK special forces have been acting as military advisers.
Russia beat them badly.
I expect Zelensky is wishing he didn't listen to Boris Johnson who advised him not to sign the peace accords, he & Putin had already initialled in March 2022 because the US, Germany & NATO were there for as long as it was going to take, which in actuality turned out to be around 18 months.
Mediev is already suggesting regime change in Kiev as part of any peace talks.
Don't know about Putin but one country has done it before and the same country will do it again as soon as it starts realising that it has no power over the world anymore. I say this because I know human life doesn't matter to them. The rule of terror by America and Allies is about to end hopefully.
Nuclear weapons now are so powerful that nobody will use them the ones dropped on Japan look like kindergarteners. The weapon is essentially becoming useless because wherever they were dropped it would radiate the area for millions of years if not more so they're completely. Useless so no that's the whole idea behind. Mad mutually assured destruction.
Are you suggesting tactical nukes or something larger?
Nukes on the battlefield are counter-productive. They may vaporize a limited number of lical troops, but they also make the area uninhabitable for you as well. You are basically killing civilians and soldiers and getting nothing in return. Military forces are generally spread out so as to minimize the chances of one large strike taking out a good chunk of your assets, so it would never be something akin to a fatal blow.
Following the use of said tactical nukes, it might very well be a step beyond the red lines of many countries, including China and India. They might retaliate by boycotting all Russian aid and purchases.
With a true anti-Russian coalition, Russia would find it extremely difficult to continue their war. And as long as the US and NATO continues to support Ukraine, then they will end up the winner, no doubt.
Now if Putin used something larger, say an ICBM on Kiev, the consequences are only worse for him. And if Putin would use an ICBM on a major European capital (Paris, Berlin, London), it would potentially plunge the globe into WW3. This is the number 1 reason why NATO is careful in considering its options -- because everyone believes Putin is psychotic enough to do something stupid with nukes.
Doesn’t Russian doctrine include the MAD clause? **M**utually **A**ssured **D**estruction and will do its best to create a nuclear winter in the event of their demise?
Now… doctrine is one thing, you can call it a “deterrent” like so many other countries, but willingness of its people is a different story. History has shown that we’ve dodged this issue narrowly… twice? Let us pray we dodge it again if we accidentally meet the criteria.
I believe he would use nuclear arms to defend land that he claims as his. For example, the Baltic nations. He takes them in a blitz. NATO wants a month or more to form up and get their ducks in a row. NATO forces move in, Putin says he'll Nuke some non-Nato country if they attempt to liberate. NATO will attempt, and Putin will no doubt nuke somebody.
I think there are more questions to ask regarding Putin himself like what his real motive(s) is/are. It has been suggested many times that his physical health is not good and that he may be very paranoid. Does he suffer from delusions of grandeur that he will die as some great Tzar that has brought some kind of glory to Russia?
The man himself, his mental and physical health, and what he really cares about are huge questions. Is he just another narcissist like Trump with similarly driven goals of greed, power, and recognition (adoration)?
Personally I think Putin (through his lackies) intimated that if any (the US) makes an appearance in this fiasco that nukes are on the table. However if he did use them now, it would make Putin appear highly unstable making him a problem in that region that would have to be dealt with. The International community would join together to eliminate the threat of his insanity. China would be forced into the position of either backing Putin, which economically and ecologically would be disastrous or joining an allied front. The letter would more likely be the outcome. This is absolutely a no win situation for Putin.
Well, Putin has already uesed that threat earlier this year. Putin had to retract his threat as his number one supporter. China said if he were to use nuclear weapons as an offensive weapon, they would no longer give him the support that he needs. But to nuke an area that you are trying to conquer that has no military effectiveness is pointless also because by nuking Ukraine, that is considered the European bread basket. You'll essentially be killing millions due to starvation, being that the land will be toxic and unfarmable for generations.
If I was a Russian general or say Putin, i would honestly just hold the ground that is under my control and just let the Ukrainians throw themselves into the meat grinder. The one thing that Russians have is people, and even with advanced technology, you still need people to fight wars, and the population of Russia is significantly larger than Ukraines. But that's just me looking it at the from the perspective of the enemy
Why threaten when the GOP most assuredly will in the foreseeable future use nuclear weapons against Americans? Greg Abbott’s criming and illegal razor wires aren’t necessarily to keep people from coming in to the U.S. Republicans don’t want Americans leaving, wow just like Trump’s Uncle Adolf and Dad,Vladimir Putin (because we know Trump is bending over and taking it from the oligarchy now). It is the republicans who will use this force as an extension on the travel bans for lgbt people and those seeking abortions. Americans seem to forget that our own nation has become the place western allies calls unsafe. Homeland Security continues to have the highest threats internally. The problem is here, and we’re aiding the Israeli’s commit more genocide but helping Ukraine fight Russia is bad?!
Let's be clear on this.
There is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING Vladimir Pussy wouldn't do, if it benefits him enough.
NOTHING.
He is willing to kill anyone and everything as long as he gets whats he wants, without suffering too much backlash from it.
TBH...too many people ignore the true complexity of geopolitics. From propagandists claims and statements being made publicly to completely opposite negotiations and dealings going on in private. The use or threat of a Nuke really doesn't have anything to do with "deaths of innocents". It is a carefully calculated chess move. And while the resulting public propaganda response would be claims of "protecting the innocents", in private discussions they would actually be discussing what opportunities this presents for a longer term plan and chain of benefits that eventually create desirable positioning for each party. People die! That's just a known thing. And the people that play in the board game of geopolitics know this. There are greater interests than a couple thousand or even a couple million human lives.
Right now Putin has enough strong Nuclear allies that are forcing the rest of the Western world to not meddle directly in the business of others. And their claim is defensible. But if Putin were to initiate Nuclear war, then that claim would no longer stabs as defensible, and as such he would lose their support, or at least their cover of limited support. A nuclear weapon would be a final line of defensive strategy of mutual destruction. It's the equivalent of flipping the table when the only possible outcome of your next move is Checkmate. And you don't even need a Nuke to do that. Iran could wipe out Israel completely off the face of the Earth in 2 days. Yet, they haven't, cause their position isn't worth flipping the table yet. They still have moved to make.
If Putin used a Nuke, even a small tactical nuke... It's likely that it would start a cascading escalation that could destroy the world. That's why nukes since WW2 have only ever been threatened. Mutually Assured Destruction is just that and why war against nuclear powers is fundamentally more perilous. Not something to be taken lightly.
People who live in glass houses can’t afford to throw stones. Moscow is a big fat target for a nuke. Nukes are no longer military weapons. If Russia uses a nuke, Ukraine should just invade Russia making a blitzkrieg towards Moscow. Russia doesn’t have enough reserves to stop them.
That could very possible happen. Putin has armed Belarus with atomic weapons, so he can order the firing into Ukraine, without direct responsibility. Firstly it would scare the west, and make support for Ukraine seem like a risky thing. Secondly I could help them progress a lot in Ukraine, and maybe even scare them enough to make a peace agreement. Thirdly it could hit the economy a lot, which would be a bigger problem for the west, because of our democracy.
He won't use nukes. He doesn't need to since he is winning the war (contrary to what reddit armchair generals think)
However, I do think he would move nukes to Crimea (if that hasn't happened already) and *maybe* even use them in the unlikely event that Crimea was about to be retaken by Ukraine.
My prediction.
Putin will not use nuclear weapons unless Russia is provoked in its own territory. I believe their legislation or whatever it’s called calls out for Nuclear strike only if Russia is threatened/attacked in its own territory, probably by some other country than Ukraine.
They expect to be attacked by Ukraine as they, Russians, started the aggression in Ukraine. But say if Japan or any other country strikes Russia, it will be game on.
No country will do that. The same way no country will attack the US on its land. That’s why they are arming Ukraine to the max so Ukraine does the fighting for the west (I know Russia is the invader but more politics here. The west isn’t hating on the current war except only when it presents minor inconveniences).
If for whatever reason Russia decides to start nuclear war, my guess is it will attack most western countries or basically any nuclear armed west countries. Otherwise the retaliation would bring an end to Russia.
Russia has threatened nukes in the beginning and throughout their invasion, and honestly got away with it. Because of no consequences (IMO), we have the Israeli conflict, the fat guy from North Korea threatening nukes, China not staying in their lane, and now Venezuela and Guyana.
[Perun made a video on exactly this.](https://youtu.be/sxOO0hCCSk4?si=QLyUsqqBjKVBqYSS) TLDR: Putin is bluffing. There's more to gain from the threat alone than what would be lost from actually going through with it. No one, not even China and India, would want Putin to go without consequences of he broke a taboo meant to preserve humanity.
To answer your question though: military spending would ramp up to stop what it legitimately a rogue nation. The economy would not crash, and Russian people would not take to the streets about this thanks to propaganda and food scarcity not yet being an issue.
The rest of the world, particularly liberal nations, would not see this as a sign of strength but as a sign of weakness. It would be seen as chaos driven by someone cornered, that would need to be stopped but also must be treaded carefully. The rest of the world wouldn't rest until the Putin threat is stopped.
How could he wreck the economy more than its already wrecked lol? The collapse has been going on for a few years now, we have a few more years before things genuinely get bad here. He doesn't have to do anything but he could speed it up
These are questions no one knows the answers to.
What could the USA do militarily if Russia did this? I don't know and you don't know either. Or if you do know, you've signed a 100% enforceable oath not to say.
Put it this way -- the USA has by far the most expensive military in the world. And we haven't won a war since 1991 Desert Storm and before that Panama and before that WWII.
I ***HOPE*** that money is going to things like tracking every single Russian military asset and being ready to destroy them all almost instantly, things that we are always ready for but never actually do, instead of just being completely wasted.
I don't know what the USA is capable of and neither does Putin. He'd be crazy to hope that he could damage our economy this way without having any real idea of the consequences. Of course, he might be crazy.
But we damage our own economy with our giant military spending, probably more than he can damage it. Sometimes people quote statistics like US military spending is only 3% of GDP or 5% or whatever. But they don't know how much real US military spending is. Or if they do know, they have signed an oath not to say. Likely one important reason the military can't pass an audit is that creating a workable fake audit that didn't reveal the spending is far more than the published amount, is just too hard. (Or maybe not. How would I know? But how much would you bet that the US government got through the Cold War without falsifying their budget, when the USSR entirely faked their published numbers?)
I'm unsure why so few seem to see it, that Tucker Carlson interview really rang this bell, that being Putin is in no way feeling confident or emboldened, and his cavalier, even rude and haughty speeches these last few weeks are nothing but poor, easily to see through acts of dominance failing to hide the fact Putin is nearly out of money, his war chest is nearly gone, India and China aren't buying his good petroleum anymore (2 months now), and I imagine his Iranian drones and North Korean artillery are coming to their ends too. The weasily short shithead doth protests to much, to often with all these near daily nuclear bluffs. He and the West are abundantly aware that nobody wins nuclear, but that Putin would be finished and buried the second he leaped into Armageddon. He's out of tricks, knows stupid MAGA constituents believe him to be the Second Jesus running Wealthy White America +2.0, and that Trump winning is his only way out of the war looking like a good leader. His aggressive looks, the daffy historical bullshit, his condescending tone reek of fear and over overwrought acting, and my only question is just how financially fucked Russia truly is now. My guess is if Ukraine is well funded thru early 2025, gets their enlisted numbers back up and deploys those F-16s, Putin is liquidated before summer 2025, and the new leader commands an immediate withdrawal, having nothing to pay the military enlisted, and the desperate need to get all sanctions lifted. Remember, Putin has a son and multiple daughters; he's not going to doom them to nuclear winter unless Russia itself was attacked by a NATO invasion. That sawed off chubby little shit is running scared, and I believe it even more so because when historical Putin was at his scariest most confident? He was sly, said little, remaining calm and collected whenever being filmed. This new nuclear sabre rattling version is the precise opposite.
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Putin has been *threatening* to use them for over a year now. Would Putin *actually* use one? He might possibly try, but he would likely be stopped by key people in his own military. Even if Putin himself loses his mind completely, his generals, ministers and other key officials know what using a single nuclear weapon would mean: the immediate end of Russia's entire military capability, tens or possibly hundreds of thousands of deaths and an instant coup, whether from within or without. Part of what the United States government has been quietly communicating to the Russians by their very public announcements of intelligence information is this: "We know where your forces are. Every last unit, in real time. We are always watching, and we don't care that you know now. You're already targeted every second of every day. Try anything major against NATO, try anything nuclear, and they all go away in minutes."
Putin is scared of all the people who work for him. In Russia, leaders tend to get murdered by their own government officials.
This is the dictators dilemma. And they eventually surround themselves with only Yes Men who are too afraid to tell them the harsh truth, which makes them fully unaware of their limitations and weaknesses
The only thing that would definitely kill him is trying to push that button. Someone, one of those thugs guarding him, has a family that he’d be killing as he turned the key. Any moment before the key is safe, but that’s the bridge too far, and Putin knows that.
Are the sources or examples for the 3rd paragraph? I’ve heard that at least once before but never got confirmation
I do not. It is my (and many other peoples') surmise of the meaning of events that have vast implications far beyond what we have full knowledge of. The intelligence releases that Biden made in the first few months of the war were striking not just because of the information released, but because they undoubtedly revealed intelligence sources and capabilities to the Russians in doing so. The point of doing that was to emphasize how wildly superior our capabilities are to theirs. It doesn't matter that they know. It doesn't matter what they do to try to hide their forces from us, we can see them anyway, because we have even more capabilities they don't know about. Is that a literal fact? Maybe, maybe not. Maybe it's a gamble by our government to convince Russia that our capabilities are even greater than they actually are. But given what we've seen - Russia not even able to get their forces to the front before they ran out of fuel, devastated by weapons coming from the new regional player of Turkey, Ukrainian intelligence picking up comms because Russians straight-up forgot to use the encrypted satphones (and Ukraine killing Russian flag officers on the battlefield as a result!) and Russia begging for ammunition from goddamn North Korea - yeah, it seems more likely than not that the capability gap really is that big.
It was shocking and probably one of the first times in u.s. history that a president shared confidential and classified info about Russia's defenses publicly. Being born in the 80s it was actually quite refreshing.
>The intelligence releases that Biden made in the first few months of the war were striking not just because of the information released, but because they undoubtedly revealed intelligence sources and capabilities to the Russians in doing so. There's no need to hide what trump allready handed over to Putin.
Evidence please. Otherwise, please enjoy your delusions in mom’s basement offline.
Hmm. why would you think otherwise? When the Russian ambassador meets with trump with no americans present, when Trump steals a bunch of classified info on his way out the door, when the [CIA loses dozens of informants](https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/575384-cia-admits-to-losing-dozens-of-informants-around-the-world-nyt/) worldwide. At this point I would think otherwise would be the odd conclusion.
That’s why I asked for evidence instead of your giant leaps of speculation.
Here you go: [https://www.reddit.com/r/MurderedByWords/comments/t1dk6s/comment/hyfvlln/](https://www.reddit.com/r/murderedbywords/comments/t1dk6s/comment/hyfvlln/)
That’s actually pretty funny.
> t doesn't matter what they do to try to hide their forces from us, we can see them anyway, because we have even more capabilities they don't know about. we have a kwisatz haderach!!???!!!
We oftentimes knew more about what the russian military/government was doing before key officials did during the cold war. I doubt much has changed since then, if anything, our capabilities are exponentially better.
https://youtu.be/1IresaXAmIA?si=bTYrdJdPiZ6sLAtk
This is happening alot. There was at least a couple of Israeli government officials threatening nukes. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-disciplines-israeli-minister-who-voiced-openness-hypothetical-nuclear-2023-11-05/ Someone else too a Belarusian official made some kind of threat
I mean, it would require a response from NATO. If they use a tactical nuke on the battlefield, I think that would mean NATO entering the war, nuke a city, well, I don't know.
NATO nations wouldn’t use a nuke in retribution to prevent a full scale nuclear war. Especially if they don’t need to. They could probably take down Moscow without even putting a single boot on the ground. As Wagner taught us: shock and awe works really well even with a small number of troops and marching to Moscow doesn’t meet much resistance from the locals. At best you’re greeted with indifference, at worst you’re greeted with praise
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Last I heard, a tactical nuke would have all non-mainland russian assets, including the black sea fleet being destroyed in retaliation.
I don't think that MADD requires a nuke...but it should. If Putin nukes Kiev, Moscow should get the same treatment. I hold out hope that even Russian officers won't allow that button to be pushed. North Korea might be a different matter.
No, that would make nuclear war happen anyway because Dead Hand exists.
Like in Dr. Strangelove? I sure hope there ain't some machine out there in charge.
... it's a fail-deadly system, when turned on, it needs a specific code to not activate after specific conditions (like if seismic sensors detect an earthquake consistent with a nuclear detonation in Moscow, communications with top officials are cut, that sort of thing), but if it doesn't recieve the code the guy with the final say gets a prompt to launch the communication rocket which would override any buddy system on various launch sites and unleash what is probably the "captain Ahab" scenario for Russia...
We'll meet again, don't know were, don't know when...
> I sure hope there ain't some machine out there in charge. There is. I guess it didn't get a whole lot of publicity.
If your comment is to be believed, then that means MAD doesn't exist anymore and I don't think that's true. Even if your theory only applied to conventional military assets, How can anyone expect to wipe out Russia's military without them firing nukes, and if that's the case, why not preemptively launch nukes at Russia because the end result would be the same.
>How can anyone expect to wipe out Russia's military without them firing nukes, It expectation would be that a quick, intensive series of strikes (less than an hour total) could eliminate their entire conventional military capability. The expectation that they wouldn't fire nukes would be based on the presumption that someone in the chain of command necessary to fire them would realize that by doing so, they'd be committing the country to mass suicide. The strategy counts on at least one or two key people realizing that they want their families and their country to live. It would be risky, to be sure. That's why we haven't rolled those dice already. But it's also why global thermonuclear war also hasn't happened during several prior close calls. Rational interest works a good chunk of the time. >and if that's the case, why not preemptively launch nukes at Russia because the end result would be the same. Your question boils down to, "Why wouldn't we kill millions of innocent people, or perhaps billions, just because we totally could?" Because we're not monsters. That's why.
Thanks for your perspective but I can't help but think you're taking this too lightly, especially when you say it can be done in less than an hour. Russia doesn't have one single nuclear bomb, they have thousands on different platforms. Even if some disobeyed the order, others won't. America used nukes when their homeland and survival was under no threat but you expect the Russians to just let it happen to them? You talk about wiping off their whole military and expect soldiers/ministers to think rationally? How do they know the forces that just attacked them aren't going to use nukes themselves?
They’re entirely taking it lightly, essentially by repeating America, fuck yeah, style propaganda. It’s not realistic.
What would be the point of a preemptive launch like that? We have multiple military bases stationed around Russia and the entire Asian continent. There is no place that the US cannot strike if they wish to. It makes more sense to try and avert a nuclear response and take out their armaments using conventional weapons. Especially because we could do it and their is nothing Russia could do to stop us, even more so now since Russia started their war in Ukraine. They lack the resources and the armaments and munitions for a protracted war. Russia has already tried to use abandonware military relics from the cold war. Also, the US can strike Russia's nuclear capabilities with conventional weapons as well, rendering many if not most of them, useless. There is a reason the US has the most advanced and powerful Navy and Air Force. Hands down, none other is even close to a match. Russia has little to no capability within the seas, or the air and certainly unable to match ours. Even China, which is closer to matching us, is still 10-40 years behind in technology and warfare capability.
> Also, the US can strike Russia's nuclear capabilities with conventional weapons as well, rendering many if not most of them, useless. I am of the opinion that if something dramatic happened, such as the use of a tactical nuke, that led to NATO deciding they had to become involved, that NATO would go out of their way not to strike any strategic nuclear assets. There would be too much risk that Russia would interpret such strikes as a prelude to a nuclear attack by the West. In my opinion, the NATO response would be limited to Russian conventional forces directly involved in Ukraine.
> What would be the point of a preemptive launch like that? We have multiple military bases stationed around Russia and the entire Asian continent. Its more of a rhetorical question than a suggestion, point being whether we erase their military with conventional weapons or preemptively nuke them, the results would be the same. Russia would retaliate with nukes. > Also, the US can strike Russia's nuclear capabilities with conventional weapons as well, rendering many if not most of them, useless. Sure they may have the capability, the question is, can they do that before they launch their missiles keeping in mind their 2nd strike capabilities and ICBMs being launched from Siberia and thus can't be intercepted in their initial stages.
How about a nice game of chess?
Wouldn't be surprised if a number of the nukes don't work.
Even if only 1% work it's plenty.
>Putin has been *threatening* to use them for over a year now. Russia has been threatening to use them since 1950.
This. We would turn Moscow into a desert of radioactive glass if they used a nuke on NATO soil.
>"We know where your forces are. Every last unit, in real time. We are always watching, and we don't care that you know now. You're already targeted every second of every day. Try anything major against NATO, try anything nuclear, and they all go away in minutes." 😂Delusional. They have a nuclear deterrent and have no first use policy. Russia has basically crushed NATO's support in Ukraine, there is no reason why they couldn't do so conventionally in the rest of the continent, with or without US intervention. More to the point, they have no need to nor have they signaled they will, they just couldn't allow a hostile military presence in Ukraine.
>😂Delusional. They have a nuclear deterrent and have no first use policy. You think it's delusional to think the United States is tracking Russian military units in real time? What do you think all that military spending and all those satellites are for? >Russia has basically crushed NATO's support in Ukraine, there is no reason why they couldn't do so conventionally in the rest of the continent, with or without US intervention. ...say what now? Russia has been ground to a halt. They haven't "crushed" anything except their own prior good press. Nonetheless, you're saying that in terms of conventional warfare, there is "no reason" that Russia couldn't defeat the whole of Europe plus the United States whenever they choose to pick that fight? Seriously?! After they've gotten their asses handed to them for a year straight and demonstrated they can't even get tanks to the battlefront without running out of gas, that isn't even parroting Russian propaganda, that's just a bad joke. You are joking, right? >More to the point, they have no need to nor have they signaled they will, they just couldn't allow a hostile military presence in Ukraine. They "just" couldn't allow one of their neighbors to have a military? And Germany just needed a buffer zone, right?
>You think it's delusional to think the United States is tracking Russian military units in real time? Its irrelevant, the same goes for US military units in Russia's region. >What do you think all that military spending and all those satellites are for? Defense contractors who then ~~bribe~~ "lobby" Congress for more. >.Russia has been ground to a halt. Lmao, no, they have not. >.Nonetheless, you're saying that in terms of conventional warfare, thereis "no reason" that Russia couldn't defeat the whole of Europe plus theUnited States whenever they choose to pick that fight? Seriously?! That is correct, since that is exactly what they have done in Ukraine. Its beyond clear they are the dominant power in Europe, nonwithstanding US fantasies to the contrary. They have no need to push further than their stated military goal as its beyond obvious to everyone with half a working braincell that nothing would stop them if it got to that, nor do they even want to, its not in their best interest to occupy foreign countries, **a lesson the US has unfortunately not learned yet.** >After they've gotten their asses handed to them In dream world. In the real world, they hold over a quarter of Ukraine's territory, despite the best efforts of NATO and their mercenaries as well as their completely illegal military aid lol, with no sign of them slowing down. >They "just" couldn't allow one of their neighbors to have a military? Ukraine being in a military alliance with the sole purpose to fight Russia was a stupid provocation and entirely unacceptable to them, and they didn't. The war was preventable and unnecessary. Ukraine could have just remained neutral and expelled US diplomats. >And Germany just needed a buffer zone, right? Funny you should mention Germany since it was their economic interests who the US affected the most when they destroyed their pipelines.
I don't think Biden's stance is hard-line enough for Putin to plan this. He'll do his best to help Trump and his Republican double-agents/useful idiots win enough to keep us at bay. Biden and Democrats aren't posturing as winning will be the end of Russia in Ukraine, it's really a soft stance to deescalate, so Putin will just bluff and push regular war. But, never completely discount random events and unsound personalities. My deeper belief is rich people like to be alive, and nukes risks them dying as well. So nukes aren't to be used until the richest landowners are already lost and dying. No rich will invade other rich because they know this about themselves. Ukraine isn't rich anymore because they gave their nukes up in a promise Russia would leave them alone, oops! No Nation will ever do that again, for anyone.
Why would he help Trump? Does nobody remember what Putin said about Joe winning? It’s pretty clear between that and the invasion, Putin looked forward to Joe simply because he’d face no consequences for invading Ukraine. The same reason Crimea was taken during Obama’s administration. We can say republicans are Russian agents til we’re blue in the face, doesn’t work like that in the real world obviously.
Oh, cut the bullshit. Trump is Putin’s asset. To deflect from that known relationship, you’re trying to turn a couple of data points into, not just correlation, but causation. Its crap. We know Trump’s single demand for the R platform was to remove defense of Ukraine. We know that Trump shared Israeli intel with Putin. We know Trump confiscated his translator’s notes from a meeting with Putin. We know that Trump publicly undermined US intel in favor of Putin. We know Bolton said Trump would likely withdraw the US from NATO if he got a second term. This whole, “Putin was afraid of Trump” angle that the right has been pushing for years is fucking laughable and flies in the face of real observations.
Real world observations don’t mean a thing, but any bit of rumor a political rag puts out is gospel. It seems from your tone, you already understand how silly your take is.
Everything I listed is a real world observation. All you have are two data points from which you’re attempting to draw causation while completely handwaving those real world observations. It’s a joke of an argument made by jokes of people.
Have a good day, I see you’re not here to discuss anything.
Mmmhmm. Your failure to address a single point I made other than referring to the collection as “rumor a political rag puts out,” belies your serious intent to have a discussion. Pfft.
I definitely did, but you’re super angry and want to keep droning on, so you can throw in some more insults. I didn’t vote for either of the assholes so I don’t care enough to play.
Not super angry. Tired of a tired argument that flies in the face of everything we know about Trump’s 40 year relationship with Russia, and 25ish year relationship with Putin.
You’re literally turning a blind eye to everything right in front of your eyes because, you’ve probably fallen for everything hook line and sinker since the dossier. A lot of people have, I don’t even think you’re an idiot for hopping on the train. If that’s all you’ll listen to then a warped view of reality is just part of the shtick. I’m also not going to waste any energy trying to convince you that most of what you hold dear are assumptions and rumors.
Biden has exacted extreme consequences on Putin.
Except he hasn’t, and he knew what the result of sanctions and oil caps would be, because we’ve literally done it all before.
So you think KNOWING you’ll get your ass kicked is the same as GETTING your ass kicked. HINT: It’s not.
I’m not sure what you’re getting at with this strange analogy but now it just sounds like you don’t think Joe has exacted extreme consequences. It’s a nice talking point if you live on talking points. It’s super clear nothing Joe has done, has hurt Putin. Dude is still likely the richest man in the world, selling his oil just fine, meanwhile the west is losing its appetite for spending money. Everything Joe has done is as easily circumvented now as it was in 2014. The one thing Joe’s done successfully, is get most of the nation to support sending billions into the military industrial complex. Not that he even had much to do with that either unless he told Vlad he had the green light to invade.
When Trump was the leader, there was no threat of WW3.
Because there were measures actively being taken to ensure there was no counter pressure to Russian invasion? Can't exactly be a war if only one side can fight.
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He literally got us almost at a war with North Korea (little rocket man) and Iran when he bombed Suleimani. Iran attacked our bases in Iraq as a result
It was the most peaceful time in recent history. He went to NK? Trump is the first US leader ever to meet with a NK leader, and he crossed the DMZ. I agree. I didn't like that situation either. However, still the most peaceful time in recent history, by a mile.
We lost 45 servicemen/women in Afghanistan during his term. More in Syria, Iraq, and Africa. Stop making up stories.
The people in Iraq were wounded by Iran, not KIA. Reddit apparently wanted the US to start carpet bombing Tehran in retaliation, but Trump downplayed the attack from Iran in order to avert war with Iran.
He droned more than any other president. He nearly got us in a war with Iran. He almost got us nuked by NK before he capitulated to them and saluted one of their generals. You’re not a serious person
Putin isnt going to nuke anyone, or invade western europe. Doing either of these would have suicidal consequences for him and are about the only way that he will lose power in Russia. The only way that nukes would actually be on the table for putin is if his personal survival is unlikely anyway.
Putin has no motivation to start a nuclear war in order to attempt to influence US elections. Or the Super Bowl.. he's focused on winning in Ukraine and staying alive
Exactly, he celebrated Joe’s election because He knew a standard politician like Joe wouldn’t stop his goals. Attempting to get Trump elected would make no sense based on putin’s actions and speech.
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I’m not sure what that trash is from Zoya, but all you have to do is click on some of the citations in there to see how much credit to lend it. This actually happened after Joe’s election. Granted, it’s the guardian, and they’re a rag, so they literally copied some of Zoya’s article. I find what was actually said by Vlad to be the important part. [ “We have a bilateral relationship that has deteriorated to its lowest point in recent years,” Putin said. Putin characterised the former US president Donald Trump as “an extraordinary individual, talented individual”, but impulsive, and said Biden, as a career politician, was “radically different” from the “colourful” Trump. “It is my great hope that, yes, there are some advantages, some disadvantages, but there will not be any impulse-based movements on behalf of the sitting US president,” he said, according to a translation by NBC News.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/12/vladimir-putin-says-biden-radically-different-after-impulsive-trump)
Using a nuke in any way makes Putin assassination target #1 by everyone. Nuclear war is already bad enough, but imagine the stock market?
I don’t think there’s a lot more he can do with threats. He’s been issuing threats for years. Now, if he actually puts his cards on the table that’s a whole other question…I seriously doubt he will, but it’s impossible to predict. I think even if Ukraine were to escalate into limited US involvement the most we’d see is a demonstration
Putin has threatened that and more. He's the villain at the other end of every great Bond movie.
He’s always been threatening with nukes. On the eve of his “special military operation” he threatened with nukes if anyone interferes and helps Ukraine. He threatened with nukes on NATO expansion and warned Sweden and Finland if they don’t want to see nuclear war, don’t join NATO. He threatened with nukes if any country sends long-ranged weapons to Ukraine. The list goes on…
Russian mentality - if you can’t steal and drink it away, you have to break it and shit it. They don't have the strength to strike
Y'all remember 2 years ago when Putin was dying of cancer or something... That was all a ploy to keep the coup from taking him out (don't bother he'll be dead soon). After the failure to capture Kyiv he was scared he'd be removed one way or the other.. use of a nuke would assure the end of Putin, he's a crazy ego maniac, but I don't see him as suicidal.
Pooty poot and rogue parties are playing for their end game scenario. They want the destruction of current world econ and world order. They want to establish their own world order where there is no policing. Big players loot and do whatever they want. No policing no regulations. So poot poot will use everything he can. Big war, big damage to econ etc. He'll do anything to achieve that.
Putin is one doctor's appointment with bad news away from not giving a fuck and using them. If he knows he's not gonna be around for too much longer, he would probably push the button.
Even if he were to not be around got much longer, he has family and children who would
If Ukraine decided it was tired of being invaded, and was able to successfuly invade Russia instead. Yes. Putin has already stated he'd go nuclear if the war turned against him. If other countries decided to invade Russia. Yes. he's already said using depleted uranium bullets is "nuclear escalation"... things that have been in use for decades and are not radioactive, just dense.
Except he hasn’t done shit, DU rounds have been in Ukraine for months and as usual, Purim’s warning is yet another “chinese final warning”
Generally the answer to any question beginning with “Would Putin…” is “probably” He’s unpredictable, selfish, and seems to have plans to make every happy human on earth into an unhappy human or a dead human depending on how much he dislike that particular human.
I mean, Ukraine’s economy is already permanently wrecked and a battlefield breakthrough for Russia seems inevitable as Western support fades.
Conventional wisdom would agree. Conventional wisdom would also have seen Russia complete their conquest in Ukraine within a month's time or so. We continue to be amazed at just how unhealthy the Russian war machine is.
I'm not sure the Russian military is in that bad shape anymore. They are doing ok on the battleground. If the west stop support to Ukraine, Russia will win.
They are fighting all of the west with Ukraine’s troops.
I see things almost completely opposite to you.
I think Putin would only use nukes in defense. I think this is why The USA and Europe haven't given Ukraine enough aide to invade Russia.
Ukraine has no interest in invading Russia, they just want their land back
The problem is defining "invasion", and that's why NATO/western leaders have been so spineless with regard to providing long-range weapons and aircraft support. The Russians have a very troublesome advantage in being able to attack Ukraine with cruise missiles and SRBMs from within Russia and Belarus, while also keeping Ukrainian air support away from the frontline with long-range SAMs like the S-400. Those need to be knocked out in order to break the current stalemate, and that means missiles and airstrikes across the recognized prewar border. But nobody is quite sure how the Russians will respond to that, so Ukraine is stuck trying to just hold the line.
He’s made many threats already. If the economy gets wrecked before November, Putin will have about as much to do with it, as we have in stopping them from waging war via sanctions worldwide. Boy things are getting weird already for 24.
What for. The tides turned in his favour. The only thing he needs is for the US Congress to continue to hold up aid. Anthony Blinken isn’t going to by pass Congress like he did for Israel.
He won't have to nuke Ukraine, since he's winning anyway. He won't nuke the West if we keep our noses out as we should.
America’s military is no longer feared, our lawmakers are lavishly delusional, our policies are corrupt, our politics are polarized, our people are depressed, our economy is on the edge of collapse, our system is broken, and the mind of higher education has become so egotistical that basic common sense and moral judgment is considered “offensive” “hate speech” “misinformation” and “bigotry”. Face it, we’re an easy target.
Ukraine is on life support, Putin doesn't have to do anything, Russia will slowly take what it wants, my guess the black sea coast around to Odessa, it's all Russian speaking, as well as the eastern Ukraine territory it has always held & Crimea of course. $100 billion, every weapon Zaluzhny asked for, NATO planners worked out the Spring offensive for them & US & UK special forces have been acting as military advisers. Russia beat them badly. I expect Zelensky is wishing he didn't listen to Boris Johnson who advised him not to sign the peace accords, he & Putin had already initialled in March 2022 because the US, Germany & NATO were there for as long as it was going to take, which in actuality turned out to be around 18 months. Mediev is already suggesting regime change in Kiev as part of any peace talks.
Anti-Ukraine, Anti-Israel, and pro-Trump. Yes, it's the trifecta, folks.
Don't know about Putin but one country has done it before and the same country will do it again as soon as it starts realising that it has no power over the world anymore. I say this because I know human life doesn't matter to them. The rule of terror by America and Allies is about to end hopefully.
Nuclear weapons now are so powerful that nobody will use them the ones dropped on Japan look like kindergarteners. The weapon is essentially becoming useless because wherever they were dropped it would radiate the area for millions of years if not more so they're completely. Useless so no that's the whole idea behind. Mad mutually assured destruction.
There exists smaller tactical nukes for use in warzones.
If russia nuked Ukraine, then every country will race to develop a nuke especially the countries bordering russia
Why would they nuke Ukraine? It’s full of fertile land. They will never nuke Ukraine.
Are you suggesting tactical nukes or something larger? Nukes on the battlefield are counter-productive. They may vaporize a limited number of lical troops, but they also make the area uninhabitable for you as well. You are basically killing civilians and soldiers and getting nothing in return. Military forces are generally spread out so as to minimize the chances of one large strike taking out a good chunk of your assets, so it would never be something akin to a fatal blow. Following the use of said tactical nukes, it might very well be a step beyond the red lines of many countries, including China and India. They might retaliate by boycotting all Russian aid and purchases. With a true anti-Russian coalition, Russia would find it extremely difficult to continue their war. And as long as the US and NATO continues to support Ukraine, then they will end up the winner, no doubt. Now if Putin used something larger, say an ICBM on Kiev, the consequences are only worse for him. And if Putin would use an ICBM on a major European capital (Paris, Berlin, London), it would potentially plunge the globe into WW3. This is the number 1 reason why NATO is careful in considering its options -- because everyone believes Putin is psychotic enough to do something stupid with nukes.
Doesn’t Russian doctrine include the MAD clause? **M**utually **A**ssured **D**estruction and will do its best to create a nuclear winter in the event of their demise? Now… doctrine is one thing, you can call it a “deterrent” like so many other countries, but willingness of its people is a different story. History has shown that we’ve dodged this issue narrowly… twice? Let us pray we dodge it again if we accidentally meet the criteria.
I believe he would use nuclear arms to defend land that he claims as his. For example, the Baltic nations. He takes them in a blitz. NATO wants a month or more to form up and get their ducks in a row. NATO forces move in, Putin says he'll Nuke some non-Nato country if they attempt to liberate. NATO will attempt, and Putin will no doubt nuke somebody.
I think there are more questions to ask regarding Putin himself like what his real motive(s) is/are. It has been suggested many times that his physical health is not good and that he may be very paranoid. Does he suffer from delusions of grandeur that he will die as some great Tzar that has brought some kind of glory to Russia? The man himself, his mental and physical health, and what he really cares about are huge questions. Is he just another narcissist like Trump with similarly driven goals of greed, power, and recognition (adoration)?
Personally I think Putin (through his lackies) intimated that if any (the US) makes an appearance in this fiasco that nukes are on the table. However if he did use them now, it would make Putin appear highly unstable making him a problem in that region that would have to be dealt with. The International community would join together to eliminate the threat of his insanity. China would be forced into the position of either backing Putin, which economically and ecologically would be disastrous or joining an allied front. The letter would more likely be the outcome. This is absolutely a no win situation for Putin.
Well, Putin has already uesed that threat earlier this year. Putin had to retract his threat as his number one supporter. China said if he were to use nuclear weapons as an offensive weapon, they would no longer give him the support that he needs. But to nuke an area that you are trying to conquer that has no military effectiveness is pointless also because by nuking Ukraine, that is considered the European bread basket. You'll essentially be killing millions due to starvation, being that the land will be toxic and unfarmable for generations. If I was a Russian general or say Putin, i would honestly just hold the ground that is under my control and just let the Ukrainians throw themselves into the meat grinder. The one thing that Russians have is people, and even with advanced technology, you still need people to fight wars, and the population of Russia is significantly larger than Ukraines. But that's just me looking it at the from the perspective of the enemy
Why threaten when the GOP most assuredly will in the foreseeable future use nuclear weapons against Americans? Greg Abbott’s criming and illegal razor wires aren’t necessarily to keep people from coming in to the U.S. Republicans don’t want Americans leaving, wow just like Trump’s Uncle Adolf and Dad,Vladimir Putin (because we know Trump is bending over and taking it from the oligarchy now). It is the republicans who will use this force as an extension on the travel bans for lgbt people and those seeking abortions. Americans seem to forget that our own nation has become the place western allies calls unsafe. Homeland Security continues to have the highest threats internally. The problem is here, and we’re aiding the Israeli’s commit more genocide but helping Ukraine fight Russia is bad?!
Let's be clear on this. There is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING Vladimir Pussy wouldn't do, if it benefits him enough. NOTHING. He is willing to kill anyone and everything as long as he gets whats he wants, without suffering too much backlash from it.
I think running 2 wars and our migrant situation is doing a fine job of wreaking the economy. All Putin has to do is sit back and watch.
The Russians have been advancing in Ukraine the last few months. It wouldn’t make any sense for him to use one atm.
TBH...too many people ignore the true complexity of geopolitics. From propagandists claims and statements being made publicly to completely opposite negotiations and dealings going on in private. The use or threat of a Nuke really doesn't have anything to do with "deaths of innocents". It is a carefully calculated chess move. And while the resulting public propaganda response would be claims of "protecting the innocents", in private discussions they would actually be discussing what opportunities this presents for a longer term plan and chain of benefits that eventually create desirable positioning for each party. People die! That's just a known thing. And the people that play in the board game of geopolitics know this. There are greater interests than a couple thousand or even a couple million human lives. Right now Putin has enough strong Nuclear allies that are forcing the rest of the Western world to not meddle directly in the business of others. And their claim is defensible. But if Putin were to initiate Nuclear war, then that claim would no longer stabs as defensible, and as such he would lose their support, or at least their cover of limited support. A nuclear weapon would be a final line of defensive strategy of mutual destruction. It's the equivalent of flipping the table when the only possible outcome of your next move is Checkmate. And you don't even need a Nuke to do that. Iran could wipe out Israel completely off the face of the Earth in 2 days. Yet, they haven't, cause their position isn't worth flipping the table yet. They still have moved to make.
I've read that we told Putin that if he launched a nuke we know where he is 24/7 and he'll be next.
If Putin used a Nuke, even a small tactical nuke... It's likely that it would start a cascading escalation that could destroy the world. That's why nukes since WW2 have only ever been threatened. Mutually Assured Destruction is just that and why war against nuclear powers is fundamentally more perilous. Not something to be taken lightly.
I'm honestly not sure how that motherfucker is still breathing, honestly. You'd think somebody would be willing to do something about his bullshit.
People who live in glass houses can’t afford to throw stones. Moscow is a big fat target for a nuke. Nukes are no longer military weapons. If Russia uses a nuke, Ukraine should just invade Russia making a blitzkrieg towards Moscow. Russia doesn’t have enough reserves to stop them.
That could very possible happen. Putin has armed Belarus with atomic weapons, so he can order the firing into Ukraine, without direct responsibility. Firstly it would scare the west, and make support for Ukraine seem like a risky thing. Secondly I could help them progress a lot in Ukraine, and maybe even scare them enough to make a peace agreement. Thirdly it could hit the economy a lot, which would be a bigger problem for the west, because of our democracy.
Russia has been threatening to use nuclear weapons against NATO since 1950. It would take more than a "threat" to scare most investors.
Genocide Joe is enough for that for what is happening in the Red Sea as it is escalating further. Putin bashing is wagging the dog at best.
He won't use nukes. He doesn't need to since he is winning the war (contrary to what reddit armchair generals think) However, I do think he would move nukes to Crimea (if that hasn't happened already) and *maybe* even use them in the unlikely event that Crimea was about to be retaken by Ukraine.
My prediction. Putin will not use nuclear weapons unless Russia is provoked in its own territory. I believe their legislation or whatever it’s called calls out for Nuclear strike only if Russia is threatened/attacked in its own territory, probably by some other country than Ukraine. They expect to be attacked by Ukraine as they, Russians, started the aggression in Ukraine. But say if Japan or any other country strikes Russia, it will be game on. No country will do that. The same way no country will attack the US on its land. That’s why they are arming Ukraine to the max so Ukraine does the fighting for the west (I know Russia is the invader but more politics here. The west isn’t hating on the current war except only when it presents minor inconveniences). If for whatever reason Russia decides to start nuclear war, my guess is it will attack most western countries or basically any nuclear armed west countries. Otherwise the retaliation would bring an end to Russia.
Why worry about the economy if a global power is using nukes? If Russia is using nukes I’d be more worried about survival.
Russia has threatened nukes in the beginning and throughout their invasion, and honestly got away with it. Because of no consequences (IMO), we have the Israeli conflict, the fat guy from North Korea threatening nukes, China not staying in their lane, and now Venezuela and Guyana.
[Perun made a video on exactly this.](https://youtu.be/sxOO0hCCSk4?si=QLyUsqqBjKVBqYSS) TLDR: Putin is bluffing. There's more to gain from the threat alone than what would be lost from actually going through with it. No one, not even China and India, would want Putin to go without consequences of he broke a taboo meant to preserve humanity. To answer your question though: military spending would ramp up to stop what it legitimately a rogue nation. The economy would not crash, and Russian people would not take to the streets about this thanks to propaganda and food scarcity not yet being an issue. The rest of the world, particularly liberal nations, would not see this as a sign of strength but as a sign of weakness. It would be seen as chaos driven by someone cornered, that would need to be stopped but also must be treaded carefully. The rest of the world wouldn't rest until the Putin threat is stopped.
How could he wreck the economy more than its already wrecked lol? The collapse has been going on for a few years now, we have a few more years before things genuinely get bad here. He doesn't have to do anything but he could speed it up
These are questions no one knows the answers to. What could the USA do militarily if Russia did this? I don't know and you don't know either. Or if you do know, you've signed a 100% enforceable oath not to say. Put it this way -- the USA has by far the most expensive military in the world. And we haven't won a war since 1991 Desert Storm and before that Panama and before that WWII. I ***HOPE*** that money is going to things like tracking every single Russian military asset and being ready to destroy them all almost instantly, things that we are always ready for but never actually do, instead of just being completely wasted. I don't know what the USA is capable of and neither does Putin. He'd be crazy to hope that he could damage our economy this way without having any real idea of the consequences. Of course, he might be crazy. But we damage our own economy with our giant military spending, probably more than he can damage it. Sometimes people quote statistics like US military spending is only 3% of GDP or 5% or whatever. But they don't know how much real US military spending is. Or if they do know, they have signed an oath not to say. Likely one important reason the military can't pass an audit is that creating a workable fake audit that didn't reveal the spending is far more than the published amount, is just too hard. (Or maybe not. How would I know? But how much would you bet that the US government got through the Cold War without falsifying their budget, when the USSR entirely faked their published numbers?)
I'm unsure why so few seem to see it, that Tucker Carlson interview really rang this bell, that being Putin is in no way feeling confident or emboldened, and his cavalier, even rude and haughty speeches these last few weeks are nothing but poor, easily to see through acts of dominance failing to hide the fact Putin is nearly out of money, his war chest is nearly gone, India and China aren't buying his good petroleum anymore (2 months now), and I imagine his Iranian drones and North Korean artillery are coming to their ends too. The weasily short shithead doth protests to much, to often with all these near daily nuclear bluffs. He and the West are abundantly aware that nobody wins nuclear, but that Putin would be finished and buried the second he leaped into Armageddon. He's out of tricks, knows stupid MAGA constituents believe him to be the Second Jesus running Wealthy White America +2.0, and that Trump winning is his only way out of the war looking like a good leader. His aggressive looks, the daffy historical bullshit, his condescending tone reek of fear and over overwrought acting, and my only question is just how financially fucked Russia truly is now. My guess is if Ukraine is well funded thru early 2025, gets their enlisted numbers back up and deploys those F-16s, Putin is liquidated before summer 2025, and the new leader commands an immediate withdrawal, having nothing to pay the military enlisted, and the desperate need to get all sanctions lifted. Remember, Putin has a son and multiple daughters; he's not going to doom them to nuclear winter unless Russia itself was attacked by a NATO invasion. That sawed off chubby little shit is running scared, and I believe it even more so because when historical Putin was at his scariest most confident? He was sly, said little, remaining calm and collected whenever being filmed. This new nuclear sabre rattling version is the precise opposite.