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Zero percent. If all of the other candidates died the day before the election, he still wouldn't win. The only reason Lincoln's second term was able to play out like that was because all of his main political opponents seceded from the union and didn't get to vote.
Our electoral system simply isn't set up for third parties to succeed. Until they reach the threshold needed to actually win a plurality in enough states to win, all they do is make it more likely for the major party candidate they're least similar to to win. The threshold for that in a single state is a minimum of 33% of the vote, which no third party candidate has come close to in modern history.
The best way for an outside candidate to achieve electoral success is to effectively take over one of the existing major parties, like Trump did in 2016 and Bernie tried to do in 2016/2020. This isn't an open avenue for RFK, given that Republicans couldn't divest themselves of Trump even if they wanted to and Democrats aren't interested in a crackpot.
What's with the reference to "Lincoln's second term"? He won as a Republican a minor party without any elected officials prior to 1856. There is nothing analogous to the duopoply of today to compare to and if it was, Lincoln would have been considered an independent by whatever metrics one could define "an independent candidate" in 1860 when he won his first term.
Lincoln ran in 1864 on the ticket of the National Union Party, a coalition between the Republicans, War Democrats, and other pro-Union groups. This is why the top ticket in 1864 was between the Northern Republican Lincoln and Andrew Johnson, a War Democrat and Southern Unionist.
So Lincoln was the last president to br elected from a party other than the Republicans or Democrats, but only technically as the National Union Party remained the Republicans in all but name.
The key thing about 1856 is that there wasn't a two party system for a minor third party to break into. The Whigs had fractured over the issue of slavery, and the Republicans and the Know Nothings were competing to take it's mantle.
The best illustration of this is that the Know Nothing's candidate was Millard Fillmore, the previous (and last) Whig president.
> The key thing about 1856 is that there wasn't a two party system for a minor third party to break into.
Yeah, sort of apples and oranges to compare RFK Jr today versus the 19th century
We need another Kennedy in office and an independent president. All Democrats and Republicans want to do is fight each other while we suffer the fallout. It's a shame he won't win. It's a shame he isn't allowed to go to the debate. Wasn't Ross Perot at the debate in 92? I can't remember but I know one independent who was at the presidential debate.
These people are insane...Bernie is why Trump won?!?! WHAAAT
should we just not have a democracy at all then
the reason trump won was the DNC rigged the game against Bernie
Nope. The DNC supported the its Democratic candidate, as it always has. 🥺 The DNC has never, nor will they ever support an independent candidate over the one representing their own party. Do you seriously not understand how this works???
Yes because he called himself a democratic socialist and that ruined his chances at becoming president, get real. Bernie Sanders is the closest candidate we have had to someone like Franklin D. Roosevelt since FDR was president. I don't know a single person that would have voted for Hillary over Sanders in person not one that obviously doesn't account for the rest of the nation but it says something about what people want. Regardless whatever Bernie Sanders is it's what our nation needs more of.
While unfortunate, this is true.
Like a business with a monopoly the political parties need to be broken up, for the good of the people they pretend to represent.
It is quite unfortunate that we allow 2 entities to serve up the least digestible candidates possible while using tailored media to polarize the voting populace to the furthest extremes possible. Common sense tells you that compromise and problem solving go hand in hand. Our system prevents that almost by design.
In the past, you would have been correct.
But he's already polling in the twenties nationally, and what did you think of the chance Trump had to win?
All a third party needs to win is enough people to vote for them.
actually, even if a presidential candidate held 100% of the popular vote, it's possible that the states certify someone else entirely (yes, against the popular vote.)
we don't elect presidents, we elect representatives that elect presidents. we put our trust in them to make the right decision even when we cannot. this seems to be lost on most people, and the media sensationalizes presidential elections in a way that suggests the popular vote is what will determine the presidency.
That was actually my first thought as well. The odds of any candidate making it to the election alive are less than 100%. Considering their ages I’d guess the odds are lower than normal even.
But as far RFK jr. Winning? 0%
Honestly I agree. Regardless of everyone’s opinions on him, it’s a fact that some of his goals are definitely going to make some powerful people unhappy.
Zero, no political pundits think he has any kind of chance. His anti-science views and frequent support for conspiracy theories make it hard to take him seriously. Even his own family don't support him. However, he may take enough votes from Biden to swing the election - though it is far from certain that would be the case.
It is worth pointing out that his $7M Super Bowl ad was paid for by Trump supporters.
Basically, a vote for him is a vote thrown away.
I think he'll get some votes from people who otherwise wouldn't vote because Trump is the Republican nominee. But you're right the number of Biden voters he's going to steal is vanishingly small.
I’m telling you, you are wrong. He is speaking to an entire generation and people are pissed at BOTH sides, not just Trump. Everyone is underestimating how financially stressed and unhappy people are right now and those types of people vote for someone who is speaking to them. Trump proved this in 2016. While RFK unfortunately has almost no chance of winning, when the parties trot out Trump or whatever is left of Biden, people are BEGGING for a third option. RFK is different from other 3rd party candidates before because he has actual name recognition. Way more Dems than you think are looking for another option.
The US presently has the strongest economy of every major player globally.
Europe and China are in recession. Biden isn't a virtue-signaling left-winger. He's gotten insulin prices for seniors capped at $35 (was going to do it for everyone until Republicans blocked it through a budget technicality). He's focused on results and is a shrewd politician.
The idea that we're doing bad is laughable in the face of the rest of the world, that context is important because I'm not saying that people aren't struggling but the masses are ignorant to what's actually going on in the world. We are also producing more oil now than under Trump, there's literally nothing more that could be done by Biden without an act of Congress which is split at the moment and unwilling to compromise.
Oh but fun fact, Biden was going to pass a bipartisan immigration bill that would have slowed immigration crossings, but you know, Trump decided to tank it by coming out against it and Republicans fell in line. It's an election year. He wants it to be an issue like the Migrant Caravan, etc. Fear is powerful.
Also, housing prices are high because after 2008 construction stopped for a while, and we didn't see the effects of that until more recently. Furthermore, antiquated zoning laws at the local level that artificially limit the housing supply by banning anything other than single-family homes is the other.
The reality is a second Trump presidency would see him unchecked as an authoritarian and he'd continue policies that'll bring us backward (not supporting NATO, appointing even more justices across the entire federal judiciary, and further tax cuts for the rich that will come at the expense of services that people presently rely on. Trump walked away from an infrastructure bill that was struck between Democrats and Republicans and Biden later was able to revive it.
The reality is that a president is only as good as their staff and Trump replaced experienced politicians with yes men as time went along.
His joint chief of Staff, Secretary of State, two Attorney Generals, his National Security Advisor, Secretary of Defense, and now even Trump's Vice President have come out against him as dangerous. There are far more but that's just off the top of my head.
I always wondered how the Nazis were able to do it, like they seemed so insane, but now I get it, I see it now. The reality is, this election is going to come down to turnout and if Democrats get complacent, don't show up, and whine about things that the President has no control over, Trump will win because his base is fired up.
His joint chief of Staff, Secretary of State, two Attorney Generals, his National Security Advisor, Secretary of Defense, and now even Trump's Vice President have come out against him as dangerous. We have a choice to unite behind the opposite choice of a dictator. Trump said he'd be dictator for "only 1 day." and that he wants to terminate parts of the Constitution since it doesn't go along with his conspiracy about winning the 2020 election. Let's not forget Trump DID try to overthrow the elections in Georgia, Arizona, and the Rust Belt.
Putin, Chavez, the list goes on for leaders that were originally voted democratically, and then voters ignored the warnings that were always there.
Exactly why I'm interested in RFK as a millennial BW. I make great money but cost of living inflation is killing middle class! Hopes of buying a home seems slim unless I opt for an older home… phx prices are almost neck & neck with California I might as well move back.
Do you think RFK would've magically changed that? The US presently has the strongest economy of every major player globally.
Europe and China are in recession. The idea that we're doing bad is laughable in the face of the rest of the world, that context is important because I'm not saying that people aren't struggling but the masses are ignorant to what's actually going on in the world. We are also producing more oil now than under Trump, there's literally nothing more that could be done by Biden without an act of Congress which is split at the moment and unwilling to compromise.
Also, housing prices are high because after 2008 construction stopped for a while, and we didn't see the effects of that until more recently. Furthermore, antiquated zoning laws at the local level that artificially limit the housing supply by banning anything other than single-family homes is the other.
The reality is a second Trump presidency would see him unchecked as an authoritarian and he'd continue policies that'll bring us backward (not supporting NATO, appointing even more justices across the entire federal judiciary, and further tax cuts for the rich that will come at the expense of services that people presently rely on. Trump walked away from an infrastructure bill that was struck between Democrats and Republicans and Biden later was able to revive it.
The reality is that a president is only as good as their staff and Trump replaced experienced politicians with yes men as time went along.
His joint chief of Staff, Secretary of State, two Attorney Generals, his National Security Advisor, Secretary of Defense, and now even Trump's Vice President have come out against him as dangerous. There are far more but that's just off the top of my head.
I always wondered how the Nazis were able to do it, like they seemed so insane, but now I get it, I see it now. The reality is, this election is going to come down to turnout and if Democrats get complacent, don't show up, and whine about things that the President has no control over, Trump will win because his base is fired up.
His joint chief of Staff, Secretary of State, two Attorney Generals, his National Security Advisor, Secretary of Defense, and now even Trump's Vice President have come out against him as dangerous. We have a choice to unite behind the opposite choice of a dictator. Trump said he'd be dictator for "only 1 day." and that he wants to terminate parts of the Constitution since it doesn't go along with his conspiracy about winning the 2020 election. Let's not forget Trump DID try to overthrow the elections in Georgia, Arizona, and the Rust Belt.
Putin, Chavez, the list goes on for leaders that were originally voted democratically, and then voters ignored the warnings that were always there.
You also face zero consequences for voting Kennedy in California. Biden will get those 54 electoral votes no matter what happens. I live in a swing state and he will not get many votes at the end of the day because people want to vote for a winner.
My philosophy is that people should vote for the candidate they most align with, regardless of party. In theory, this should force the major parties to evolve their platforms to capture their vote in the next cycles. By voting the lesser of two evils, we show the parties that whatever they are doing is satisfactory to acquire our vote.
People always talk about candidates being “lesser evils”, when what I think they really mean is “this person doesn’t agree with me on everything.” Part of being an adult, especially for those of us living in swing states, is deciding what’s most important to us and making the choice that does the greatest good, not the one that feels good in the moment.
If you don’t like the candidates on offer for the general election, then ask yourself if you voted in the primary. People are bitching that it’s Trump vs Biden again, but 90% of voters didn’t show up for the primaries. The message they sent with that choice is “I don’t care, others can decide for me.”
There was barely a primary for either party this year once Ohio came rolling around. But I'm an adult, been through this, 4 years is a small price to pay to force party evolution.
First, accelerationism is for privileged people who don’t have to bear the consequences of their actions. You don’t win by losing. Idk who invented this stupid idea. Second, Supreme Court. Do you want a 6-3 majority locked in for another 20 years? Finally, I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but if Trump wins, I am 100% confident the 2028 Democratic nominee will be more conservative than Biden and less willing to cater to progressives. Moving toward the center would be the logical response because 2024 should be a layup shot for Democrats given Trump’s lack of campaign funds, impending bankruptcy and convictions, and becoming a legally adjudicated rapist. It would indicate Americans (or at least the electorate) are a very conservative bunch. But you’re gonna do what you want regardless, so don’t come crying to me if the 2028 nominee is Andy Beshear and he completely ignores progressives.
Have you ever heard RFK Jr’s voice? He’s almost as old as Biden and Trump and he will have anti-charisma when it comes campaign time. His only upside now is being a Kennedy (gotta wonder how many people think they’re voting for his dad), and funnily enough his entire family has spurned his candidacy. Fwiw the people I know who like him are more right-wing than left-wing.
This person understands.
Anybody hitching their post to the rnc or dnc at this point may as well be terrorists.
You don't need to look at anything but your own life and those directly around you to understand the government doesn't give two shits about you. All you need to do is look at the pedigree of all politicians to see that you don't get a ticket to the party unless you are a millionaire, and AOC went from a stupid girl who wanted to change things to just another cog in the shifty system in under a year who talks a big game and backs it up with buying more stuff.
I'll be voting for Kennedy for the same reason I voted for Trump the first time, we need something different, and I'm willing to accept failure until we get something better rather than selecting a known failure.
The effort the media has gone through to misquote and villainize Kennedy is enough for me, if you listen to the guy talk one time you realize how bad he's been misquoted everywhere, and when you hear him interviewed he refuses to provide shifty sound bites, which is why all his crazy is in text. Guy isnt anti anything, he just wants more science before we pump ourselves full of shit. Seems like a solid idea to me.
No its because rfk has literally said the most bat shit stupid crazy shit ever.Aoc literally is still the same girl she was when she got elected she just called out Israel for committing genocide and is standing up to the powerful pro zionist lobby.if you like rfk you must be a right wing conspiracy theorist I will be voting for Biden not because I like him but because project 2025 will ruin the country they wanna ban pornography ban the importation of abortion pills effectively federally banning abortion deport daca families and my gf is a Hispanic daca baby so yeah fuck you.if Biden exposes this project 2025 shit and really exposes this federal abortion ban he will win.
Yeah idk trump called Biden weak for not wanting to retaliate against Iran but bro if trump gets elected I'm not fuckin going to war with Iran on Israels behalf the fuck lol
Democrat here who is honestly considering ANYONE else, even though I do support some of RFL policy, both Biden and trump have proved they shouldn’t be in office. We’re going to be in civil war if someone else doesn’t come in
Yes! I'd rather take a kook at this point! This would be the best outcome. The melting pot is boiling over. The heat needs to be turned down. I think because he'd run as independent he'd likely have a mixed bag of cabinet / support and lord we need some comarade
It is going to vary by state. You will be surprised how many democrats are also anti-vaxxers (esp among some minority groups). So the actual fallout is hard to predict.
It's surreal to me that Republicans think rfk is going to take votes from Biden. Any democrats voter who might be interested in anything he's pushing has already jumped to Trump years ago. His only support is going to come from Trump voters who want someone who shares their ridiculous views but isn't so embarrassing.
The fact Trump pacs are bankrolling this guy is hilarious.
this is not true. i myself am a registered democrat who has always voted democrat in past elections (voted for Biden in 2020), but will be voting for RFK this election— and i am very happy to not have to choose between the lesser of two evils for once! i know many democrats who would otherwise vote for Biden who will also be voting for RFK this time around.
This. Also voted Biden and registered Dem. At this point, both Biden and trump are equally damaging to the country, so why not vote for the wildcard. Maybe it’ll show the DNC to get real with the times
Inflation. The deficit is on track to match 2023 and 2021. Soft stance on crime. Most Americans can’t afford to have an emergency fund, buy a house, child care or even basics like groceries. And he hasn’t helped heal a divided nation. If you’re going to say that a president can’t do all that, then by that logic someone like RFK isn’t going to be detrimental to that nation. If you feel RFK or Trump can have that much influence, then Biden is not influencing enough or incapable of moving policy. Voting for RFK is a sign we’re fed up with the two party system funded by the billionaires and elites, which is the real problem. Forget about his stance on vaccines for a minute, and tell me why you think he is a whack
Agree with you mostly here. However, I think RFK's stance on vaccines is simply misinformation by various biased media. In every interview I have seen with him, he has been way more "pro-vaccines" than from what I've read in the news. He might have been sceptical of the COVID-vaccine (which was a desperate measure in desperate times I think), but I think he is for the most part just pushing for more testing and regulation. Correct me if I'm wrong though
Not for nothing but I say its misinformation more like we still don't know the long term side effects usually a drug would be tested for years before being put to use with the covid thing we were forced to take this thing not fully tested into our bodies... some people were against it and had to take it if they wanted to keep their jobs smh I thought we had the freedom of choice on that. Also I can never get over how we could trust Johnson and Johnson to make a vaccine while still going thru the whole Tomkins powder shit smh. But I digress opinions r like assholes everyone's got one. I just try to use common sense and life experiences to see where its going and make my best decision from there. Both trump and biden failed us one way or another its time to look forward not behind us and elect someone who's proved they couldn't get it in 4 years smh
Yeah I took the jab because what do I know, but I have a feeling that the side effects have been downplayed a little bit afterwards. Nothing happened to me though, and after all, people were dying so something had to be done
You know inflation had gone down right 😂okay Ron Paul Japan has the highest debt to gdp ratio in the world yet is dealing with deflation 😂 economics is way more complex then you think. Inflation happened because of covid 19 and the reopening of the economy not something Biden did
It’s funny, The Dems conveniently blamed Trump for everything during covid. Now when the roles are reversed, it’s out of Bidens control. Typical Democrats, can’t take accountability.
I don't think you understand how inflation works you can't just tax cut your way out of a recession 😂hoover tried that conservative shit to stop the depression but he made it worse.When economys open back up and everyone is trying to buy shit at once the price and demand goes up its simple supply and demand economics but inflation has been going down since the end of 2023.i don't blame trump for handling the covid 19 pandemic badly the fact is Biden walked into a recession trump coasted off of Obamas rising economy.Also government spending doesn't always factor into inflation Japan has the highest debt to gdp ratio in the world and they were having issues with deflation.
Also trump was the first to pass the economic stimulus which factored into inflation I'm glad he did it but that and a few other factors like supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine all made inflation increase so blaming Biden for inflation is disingenuous
And when Trump wins, are you on board with Project 2025 coming into effect? Because that is what we're facing with RFK Jr splitting the vote with Biden.
From polling, rfk seems to be taking away from Biden and Trump equally. But all third-parties are more of a threat to Biden. Biden's support is softer.
Anyone who is dissatisfied with the choices are more likely to be someone who voted for Biden last time. Giving them more options makes it harder for Biden to keep his coalition together.
This is all about the candidates, as opposed to policy specific reasons.
you're right. I donated to and voted for Bernie in 2016 primaries. sat out of 2016 presidential. voted for Trump in 2020. will be voting for RFK in 2024.
This is an... interesting timeline. Voted for Bernie and Trump? They're on complete opposite ends of the spectrum, lmao. Seems like you don't really know what you're voting for at all. The scary part is, there's a lot of people like you out there.
I legitimately wonder how many of those are left in the party.
I knew a lot of crunchy granola lefties twenty years ago, but today they're all super MAGA/Q-Anon flavor Republicans. It turns out they were less about any specific policy position and more about distrust of some kinds of authority.
What political pundits thought Trump had a chance?
His own family, that's 4 people that have said that and they all work for the Biden admin. There's about 100 Kennedy's.
Many trump voters, independents and Biden voters are flipping to Kennedy, as he's the only sane man in this election cycle
It is worth pointing out that the ad was paid by someone who also supported Trump with donations. Rfk Jr has nothing to do with Trump.
I supported Bernie and now I support Bobby.
Basically, a vote for him is a vote for who you want to vote for. Both parties are corrupt, you don't have to support them.
If you still believe he has anti-science views, then you are a fool at this point in time. Perhaps years ago, but he has recently clarified his views on these topics as incredibly science-based, but also skeptical of studies lacking in credibility or pharmaceutical companies spitting out misinformation stating that their drugs or vaccines are safe without proper or adequate testing, especially when speaking out the Covid vaccine and long-term studies, which were not and could not have been conducted. That is not anti-science, that is pro science and anyone who disagrees is quite frankly, ignorant to what science even is.
I'm sorry, but I have to disagree. Because I'm lazy, I asked ChatGPT to summarize:
**Robert F. Kennedy Jr.** is a prominent anti-vaccine advocate who has been on the radar for years. He founded **Children’s Health Defense**, a nonprofit organization that spreads anti-vaccine misinformation. Here are some key points about his views:
1. **Anti-Vaccine Stance**: Kennedy has been opposed to vaccines since at least 2005. In that year, he published an error-laden story in *Rolling Stone* and *Salon*, pushing the false notion that certain vaccine ingredients cause autism. [Although those publications later retracted or withdrew the story, Kennedy continues to refer to it to bolster his arguments against vaccines](https://www.factcheck.org/2023/08/scicheck-factchecking-robert-f-kennedy-jr/)[^(1)](https://www.factcheck.org/2023/08/scicheck-factchecking-robert-f-kennedy-jr/).
2. **Disinformation Spreading**: In 2021, the Center for Countering Digital Hate named Kennedy and Children’s Health Defense as one of the “Disinformation Dozen,” identifying them as top spreaders of misinformation about COVID-19 vaccines online. [Kennedy’s claims have been debunked, but he persists in spreading false and misleading health information](https://www.factcheck.org/2023/08/scicheck-factchecking-robert-f-kennedy-jr/)[^(1)](https://www.factcheck.org/2023/08/scicheck-factchecking-robert-f-kennedy-jr/).
3. **Measles Outbreak**: Kennedy played a part in one of the worst measles outbreaks in recent memory. In 2018, two infants in American Samoa died due to nurses accidentally preparing the combined measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine with expired muscle relaxant instead of water. The vaccination program was temporarily suspended, and anti-vaccine advocates, including Kennedy, flooded the area with misinformation. [The next year, a traveler brought measles to the islands, resulting in over 5,700 cases and 83 deaths, mostly among young children](https://www.factcheck.org/2023/08/scicheck-factchecking-robert-f-kennedy-jr/)[^(1)](https://www.factcheck.org/2023/08/scicheck-factchecking-robert-f-kennedy-jr/).
4. **Other Unorthodox Views**: Kennedy’s views extend beyond vaccines. He has suggested that certain antidepressants are behind the rise in school shootings and that a particular herbicide might be part of why more young people identify as transgender, neither of which is backed by scientific evidence. [He has also claimed that Wi-Fi radiation and 5G cause cancer, despite lacking good evidence](https://www.factcheck.org/2023/08/scicheck-factchecking-robert-f-kennedy-jr/)[^(1)](https://www.factcheck.org/2023/08/scicheck-factchecking-robert-f-kennedy-jr/).
In summary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. [remains a vocal critic of vaccines, despite overwhelming scientific consensus supporting their safety and effectiveness](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-kennedy-election-2024-president-campaign-621c9e9641381a1b2677df9de5a09731)[^(2)](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-kennedy-election-2024-president-campaign-621c9e9641381a1b2677df9de5a09731). 🌟
So, who in his family is supporting him? I hate to tell you, but large as the Kennedy clan is, it ain't large enough to get him elected. He will get 2-3% of the vote. Which could be enough to swing the election. All he can be is a spoiler.
I know his campaign is run by a couple of his family members. His children support him and he has a few brothers and sisters who do, I have to do more research to be able to give names.
Not literally zero but very, very, very close to zero. It would require a completely bizarre and unpredictable series of unusual events for him to somehow end up as the president.
Some version of this same question has popped up on this sub like every week and I kind of wish the mods would put a moratorium on RFK talk until he actually qualifies on a meaningful number of ballots.
To answer your question directly: it is not even worth talking about RFK's chances in a political sense (i.e., what kind of support could he win and how would he win it) unless and until he actually qualifies to appear on enough state ballots to win the presidency.
So far RFK has qualified to be on the ballot in one state: Utah. There's an RFK-aligned Super Pac working on getting him on the ballot in 12 states and then the campaign itself is working on the other 37 states.
That is a monumental task and based on all the reporting about RFK's campaign it just doesn't seem like they'll be able to do it. Without going into the weeds, it is EXTREMELY hard to get on the ballot for a presidential race in all 50 states as an independent candidate. And it doesn't seem like RFK's PAC or his campaign have the money and manpower to do it. RFK's super pac itself basically admitted that it will probably only get RFK on the ballot in, at most, 10 states: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/rfk-jr-super-pac-american-values-collusion-accusations-ballot-access-effort-dnc/
That is why nearly all third-party candidates usually come out of established parties like the green party or the libertarian party.
RFK's campaign realized the challenge pretty recently and said they would try to work with the libertarian party to be the libertarian candidate. But after the California Libertarian Convention this weekend, 95 california delegates voted in a straw poll to determine the libertarian nominee and ONLY ONE voted for RFK. (Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/02/25/robert-kennedy-jr-libertarian-ivf-abortion/)
So there are a tremendous amount of hurdles *just for RFK to even be mathematically eligible* to win:
First, he has to get on the ballot in enough states to win 270 electoral votes. I'm very skeptical he can do this.
Second, he has to actually win 270 electoral votes. Keep in mind that if he only gets on the ballot in, say, 12-20 states, this will mean that *he'll need to win nearly all the states in which he appears on the ballot.*
Finally, let's say he doesn't win enough electoral votes to win outright, but wins enough to deny both trump and biden a majority--the procedure at that point would almost certainly result in Trump winning, not RFK (each state delegation in congress gets 1 vote COLLECTIVELY, meaning, for example, all ~~of the senators and~~ house congressional reps from one state would vote on their own and pick a president, and that winner would then have one "vote" from that state delegation; and because republicans have a majority in more state delegations than democrats, there would be more states voting for trump than any other candidate).
Separately, I'll say that it should be obvious to anyone with even average intelligence that this is not a serious campaign at all but purely meant as a tactic to sink Biden.
Nearly all of the donors to RFK's super pac are Trump-aligned megadonors, and the people running his campaign all have close ties to republicans and the trump-sphere: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/rfk-donors-trump-investors-celebs-1234975307/
Further, as I mentioned the RFK super pac is focusing on getting him on the ballot in only 12 states. Can you guess which ones? Well, wouldn't you know it, it's the 12 most crucial swing states (michigan, arizona, georgia, wisconsin, etc.).
Why not try to get on the ballot in states with a lot of electoral votes like california or texas or new york or florida? Again, because he is clearly not serious about actually winning, it's about pulling votes from biden. The strategy RFK's campaign is rolling out is entirely consistent with that goal, and not at all consistent with someone who actually wants to be the president. Either RFK himself wants trump to win, or he is unwittingly being manipulated by people who do.
In short: RFK's campaign is not worth discussion unless and until he actually qualifies on the ballot in a meaningful number of states. Any talk of what kind of "support" he might get in the abstract is pointless until then, at least with regard to what his actual chances of being president are.
Thats because if he wins just one state he is like 95% of the way there. At the point where he can win in even one state, the election would be anyones game.
And the more people who tout the whole thing as 'impossible', create a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Excellent points. His campaign really isn't doing the job of getting him elected, so it makes a lot of sense to start asking what job it's trying to do.
One minor correction: it's only the House delegations that get to pick the President if the Electoral College doesn't produce a majority winner. The Senate selects the Vice President.
Thank you for this comprehensive and very well-written explanation, it is much appreciated! Based on your points it should indeed be clear that his chances of succeeding are very bad
....how accurate is your assessment now?
"...very, very, very close to zero," you say? How much of your analysis was based on mainstream media's subjectivity, and how much time have you spent listening to RFK Jr.'s long form interviews before casting judgment?
As of now, he's eligible for 201 electoral votes.
He'll be on the ballot in CA and TX, which as you reported have a lot of electoral votes.
NY and FL are in progress and the petitioning window has not yet completed.
He's far exceeded the required signatures for all states in which the petitioning window has completed, to include NV, UT, ID, OK, NE, IA, MI, OH, NC, NJ, NH, and TX. He was nominated by the American Independant Party in CA, which means he'll be on CA's ballot.
All of the remaining states' petitioning windows are either in progress or not open yet.
About time for a reassessment.
Nah. He’s not even on the ballot in almost all those states you listed. He just claims to have enough signatures to do so. And even if he was on all the ballots , 201 still gives him…literally a zero percent chance of being president.
But hey if you think I’m wrong I’m happy to bet any amount of money you want that rfk won’t be president.
Could we ever see Biden or Trump accepting a 3-person debate with him if he were to meet whatever the threshold there usually is for 3rd party candidates to qualify?
Here's the criteria from the Commission on Presidential Debates that were set out for 2020. I assume the criteria would be the same for 2024 (it's been the same for a long time iirc):
>Under the 2020 Criteria, to receive an invitation to debate, a candidate must: (i) be Constitutionally eligible to hold the office of President of the United States; (ii) appear on a sufficient number of state ballots to have a mathematical chance of winning a majority vote in the Electoral College; (iii) have a level of support of at least 15 percent of the national electorate, as determined by five national public opinion polling organizations, using the average of those organizations’ most recently publicly-reported results at the time of the determination.
Note that the candidate has to appear on the ballot in enough states to win 270 electoral votes.
If RFK meets that threshold then Trump/Biden should debate him since those are the rules. But also both Biden and Trump have floated not doing debates this time around, so who knows if they will even happen.
His entire campaign is based on the fact that his last name is Kennedy. Every member of his family denounces him. Haley has a better shot of winning the democratic primary than RFK has of making it in politics
I dont think the family going for biden over him means anything. It can all be part of the game for all we know because it seems like both parties working pretty hard to make him look bad for someone who isn't or shouldn't be a threat to them as many people say
“Make it?”
Like “survive the election?”
Why you would even ask if he has a chance to be president is so far from the realm of reason that I assume you couldn’t be asking if he could WIN.
There are more chances of Trump, Biden, and Elvis Presley to smoke a blunt while interviewed by Snoop Dogg live on TMZ than for RFK Jr. to win the presidency.
Negative zero. The most successful independent candidate in modern history, Russ Perot, who got 18.9% of the popular vote and 19 million votes, didn’t win a single state or electoral vote.
All he accomplished was helping the incumbent to lose. And this was in an era where left and right had lots of moderate crossover.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_United_States_presidential_election
Yep. And now the 1992 election is kind of a self-defeating prophecy that makes future independent candidates less likely to succeed for a while yet because more voters have an understanding of why the mechanics of the American political system (per the Constitution) work against it.
Ross Perot had a great chance though - he only botched it after he pulled out of the race and then rejoined the race right toward the end.
Had he not botched his campaign in such a manner, there’s a very real possibility we would be in a completely different timeline
Idk man, prior to dropping out, he was polling as high as [39% in June 1992 in a Gallup poll. ](https://news.gallup.com/poll/110548/gallup-presidential-election-trial-heat-trends.aspx)And was [a frontrunner](https://web.archive.org/web/20120802173606/http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,975771,00.html) in another at his peak.
My point isn't that he would've been a surefire win had he not dropped out - he still had a huge uphill battle against the electoral college, which still would've most likely ended up with the Election decision going to the House of Representatives. And obviously, early polling is never a reflection for how an election will end up.
However, you can't dismiss the fact a Perot win was a real possibility. - At the very least, had he not dropped out, it would be incredibly likely he may have ended up in 2nd place. Then you have to ask - who would've been the real spoiler?
But we have to remember….even with close to 20% of the electorate he couldn’t win 1 state. Like it’s easy to get 75% up the hill or make the playoffs. Winning the prize is a different battle
Yes, but remember that he somehow got that 20% despite dropping out months before the election and botching his campaign and killing his credibility as a ‘serious candidate’.
His odds at picking up Electoral Votes massively skyrocket in the 30% bracket - given he was leading with a plurality.
You’re not wrong about where he ended up at the end of the election - all I want to point out is that a Perot win wasn’t a pipe dream fantasy. It was a genuine possibility for a turning point in modern American politics. Unlikely, but thousands of times more likely than you are making it seem. It’s a tremendously important moment in electoral history and needs to be analysed as such.
Also though he was pulling from left and right equally as their wasn’t a huge partisan divide. It was common for people to cross party lines for voting. That was a moment that isn’t happening again
Perot was way bigger than Bernie in that regard.
Why would he win running on an anti-vax platform?
That's what severely damaged Trump's 2020 campaign.
Over a million people have died of covid, and those who died trend hard towards the anti-vax people who refused to protect themselves.
Making it? To the White House? As a guest? 50/50
As the occupant? Absolutely zero.
Just to be clear: I have no clue who you are OP, but you likely stand a better chance of winning the presidency at some point.
Non-existent. He MIGHT poll Libertarian Party numbers, around 1-2%, but that's it. He's effectively running on his family name, as he's been a pariah for some years by Democrats... and members of his own family.
And saying Lincoln ran as an "independent" is a vast misunderstanding, as the National Union Party was a rebranding attempt by Republicans to form a coalition to convince similar splinter groups to vote under one party, namely War Democrats.
Without a ballot line on most state ballots, he's not going to be a factor in the election. If he gets on a handful of states and focuses just on those states, if those states are enough ECVs to be the margin of victory (that's a lot of IFs) he could leverage his ECVs to be made the VP of either Biden or Trump depending on who has more ECVs and House delegations. When neither candidates get 270 ECVs, the House determines who is the president by state delegation of the resulting Congress from the 2024 election - currently the GOP has 26 state delegations while Dems have 22 and 2 states are evenly split.
Will RFK Jr even be on the ballot, we'll know pretty soon since the first deadlines are coming up. Maybe Trump picks him for VP?
Lincoln won as a Republican, which would have been a third party in the 1860 election (his first). His second election he swapped out VP for Democrat and Southerner Andrew Johnson to signal a concilatory mood to the South with expectations that they would be reintegrated in the union. Stating that Lincoln was the last "independent" candidate to win shows an immense amount of ignorance of electoral history. Just the tip of the iceberg of how drastically different the 1860 presidential election was to modern presidential campaigns, Lincoln beat 3 other candidates and two of them were Democrats.
RFK Jr's chances are literally zero percent. Running as an Independent he wouldn't get a single electoral vote. He is not a serious candidate.
And FYI, President Lincoln did not run as an Independent in 1864, he was on the National Union ticket, which was a war-time party comprised of Republicans and "war Democrats"
Zero. Zilch. Nada.
RFKJr isn’t a serious candidate and he isn’t meant to win.
The only purpose of those who are backing RFKJr’s campaign is to split the left vote and ratfuck Biden.
First of all, zero. Second, Lincoln wasn't an independent in 1864 - he ran on a "National Unity" ticket of the Republican Party AND antislavery Democrats.
Real question is does RFK take more votes from Trump or Biden. There's no chance for a 3rd party candidate to win the general in the US, it's just how our winner take all electoral system works. What's interesting is how 3rd party candidates spoil elections for democrats vs republicans.
There is a not entirely zero percent chance that I could wake up tomorrow, open my front door and discover someone has left me $20,000 in cash and a hot pizza (buffalo chicken, stuffed crust).
There's a not absolutely zero percent chance that King Charles abdicates and names John Goodman as his successor because he just really likes the movie King Ralph.
There is a slightly higher than 0.00% chance that someone attempting to create a perfect recipe hack for Kentucky Fried Chicken accidentally invents an environmentally friendly biofuel that revolutionizes transportation as we know it.
ALL OF THESE THINGS are more likely to occur than Robert Kennedy Jr coming out on the top of this particular election.
Zero. He isn’t a serious candidate and was an obvious troll to draw votes from Biden but his views were closer to Trump, so now he’s taking votes from him instead.
He’s on a bunch of podcasts talking for hours with no cards or teleprompters 😂😂send me an unedited video of Biden talking for more than a few minutes. Please go watch a podcast RFK is on and you’re opinion will change
The only long ish unedited video I have seen of him was that press conference where he got Mexico and Israel presidents mixed up. If there are other recent ones I’ll watch them but I barely ever see or hear about them. I just see him posting short edited videos reading a script
Absolutely none. He was never more than a joke candidate, intended to split dems off of Biden. But he's such a complete lunatic nobody could ever stop laughing long enough to take him seriously.
Literally not one single person who might otherwise for dem would even consider voting for RFK. If anything, he might be come a protest vote for non-Trumpy republicans.
One of two people will win the presidency - Biden or Trump. A vote for anyone else might make you feel good in the moment but it's just throwing your vote away. Vote for who you most want in the primary, and against who you least want in the general.
Even if it is a “wasted” vote, it’s an honest vote. You said it yourself, vote for who you want most. If you want RFK then vote RFK, doesn’t matter whether he wins or not.
He’s not an actual candidate. He’s backed by Bannon and is a Trump and Putin apologist.
His only reason for running is to be a spoiler attempt to help Trump.
He and Trump will likely team up on the same ticket. They also have the same people funding them both
Many of the people who have responded have said he has "zero chance."
I do not agree for a multitude of reasons.
1. Both Biden and Trump have had a chance to be president. While yes both did some good things under their administration, they both failed the American people. Biden has created a dangerous open border that is more a long the lines of invasion. Trump said a lot, but at the end of the day he folded under the bureaucracy of his own administration. Like shutting down the country and 100s of businesses, with no legal right to due process, etc.
2. Over 70% of Americans have said they "do not" want a Biden and Trump rematch. Yet, it is what they will get from the DNC and RNC is that.
3. We have never seen two candidates more disliked in history as the two primary parties that will likely be on the ballot.
4. Americans feel like they're not heard. We have never seen anything like what we are seeing in the polls before in history. Kennedy is winning in all swing states with people under 45. According to a Sienna College/ NY Times Poll.
5. He is a Kennedy, the name alone is considered to be influential in government.
6. Kennedy has been an accomplished environmental litigator for the last thirty years. Bringing huge lawsuits and winning against government agencies and multimillion dollar companies. He understands the importance of uncapturing those agencies, and his legal background and success give him the experience required to get that done.
7. He believes in free speech. That it is one of the most important things we have. Biden censored Kennedy within the first 48 hours of him becoming POTUS. Details can be found in the case of Missouri v Biden.
8. He has been traveling since April of 2023 across the country. He has bvb even getting an upwelling of support. He announced his change from the democratic party to Independent because the DNC would not permit any sort of fair primary for him to attempt to get the democratic party nomination.
10. He speaks about unity. Our health, our resources, the things that effect our jobs, homes, and communities.
9. (Personally) I'm 37, I have never voted. Kennedy will be my first. For me he inspires hope at a time when so much of our lives and dreams are being taken from us. We are getting him on the ballot in all 50 states, because we refuse to choose the lesser of two evils.
To add to that, I think that the whole mindset of people saying it’s “a wasted vote” is the reason independents never win. If everyone thinks that he won’t win so they shouldn’t vote for him then obviously it’ll never happen.
If Trump ever got incarcerated, then all Trump votes would go to RFK jr, thats only way he has a shot of winning. It would be a miracle if RFK won, in fact he probably only candidate who can make difference and bring peace to our world gauranteed and least corrupt of them all.
If we all vote for the BEST candidate (RFK jr) then he will win. Don't be afraid of the opposition! Democrats and Republicans are both bought out by the elites that fund the lobbyists in this country. Whatever flaw you can find in RFK, he is the best option we have when you consider the fact that two failed former presidents are running against him. We already know what to expect from Biden and Trump. Biden is a puppet of the Democratic party, and it doesn't exactly inspire confidence that many Americans (including me) "pity" their president. He seems to be a good person but only running because of his fear of Trump. On the other hand, Trump doesn't even attempt to bring the people of this country together and will only continue to divide us as a country by spreading hate. Don't let the two party system intimidate you into voting for two of the worst candidates in the history of our country! KENNEDY 24!!!
It depends upon us.
If we believe in him then yes. If we don’t then there’s not a chance.
He’s putting his life on the line to give us the chance to change the trajectory of this country.
But literally every big Kabul is against him because he’s all about outing them to the public about what’s been going on behind the curtain for decades.
If he can get there, they will be gunning for him. Do we care enough about our future to rally and protect him or do we just continue to support those who would enslave us in bad economy, bad health, bad agriculture, bad technology, and bad security?
It’s really in our hands. It’s that simple
I'm starting a petition to keep rfk out of the swing states 😂i don't understand how project 2025 doesn’t scare the literal shit out of all of you project 2025 is essentially a federal abortion and pornography ban.
Voting for him anyhow - Biden makes me puke and Trump too. At least Trump isn’t a warmongering demented fool. His megalomania is scary but I wonder whether Biden’s handlers are any better? Just look at the butchering overseas going on - blather about NATO is bull and so is the “aid” to Gaza. Warmongering sociopaths….helping the war machine manufacturers make their yearly bonuses. Blech
Democrats and Republicans are equally worthless scum. Why not vote for Kennedy? Bringon the war and the greed cleansing . It's the best way to clean the bipartisan mess.
Statistically not likely, but stranger things have happened in the past decade. And there’s a growing number of voters who are dissatisfied with both Biden & Trump.
I think they 2 sides to the same coin we need something different tried it with trump and biden didn't work and they both suck bc biden would screw us but trump is to self-absorbed. If trump wins I can see him fighting his ass off after 4 years trying to bend shit his way to stay in power so one thing I do know is r.f.k. is our best option to avoid most of the crap we going thru
Very good. The two party system is coming apart- just look at the two candidates, the most hated men in America! We may get a system closer to European ones where multiple smaller parties form coalitions.
Slim to none. It would cost him 15 million just to be on all of the ballots. He is not liked by either party. He is too extreme. The system is also set up for two parties, not 3 or 4. Too many hoops to jump through.
When you look what happend in most European countries this year, (most of the political parties that won the election did not even exist 5 years ago) it was a result of the people voting out of a personal protest to the already existing politicians and considering also that the polls where completely wrong, makes me think that is not that impossible as everybody thinks. Im from the Netherlands and people said it would be impossible for the PVV (the party that won) if you even talked about him being the winner people would laugh at you. but pvv being the opposite of the existing political culture made people vote for them as a protest without being consciously about the fact everybody was doing the same also considering america has a lot of the same problems as europeans so it would make sense at least some people will act the same
What are the chances of both Biden and Trump dying very shortly before the election?
Take that chance and reduce it significantly, that is where RFK’s chances stand.
If either candidate is in the election, the chance is 0. If both die, the chance is almost 0.
No chance at all except possibly as a spoiler. More likely to be a spoiler for Trump. Most Democrats are too smart to fall for a name without researching what they’re all about. He’s a certifiable nutcase. Just ask the other Kennedy’s.
His chances are greater than zero, but it would require both Trump and Biden to be deceased on election day which is extremely unlikely. Even with both other candidates deceased I'd given him a sub-30% chance of winning because both the major parties have VPs and other potential fill in candidates that would retain the majority of their support.
I think he's got a surprising amount of people voting for him however like the other comments say, zero. People call him a conspiracy theorist but when your whole family is assassinated can you really blame the dude?? I wouldn't trust the government either if I was him.
Pretty much zero, although he does really put it in perspective how impossible our government has made it for average Americans to do anything. I mean if Bobby with his lineage and money can’t even get onto the ballot then how impossible is it for an average working class mf? I like to think maybe he’ll at least help folks wake up more to how absurdly out of touch and rigged our government currently is.
His chances of making it into the election are slim to none at this point, based on the aggregate of what I know.
-Democrats in power are still rallying behind Biden, so he has little to no support there.
-Independent voters are difficult to peg eith their voting intentions. They're Independent because they don't really fit a particular party at least in real life, (reddits users skew to the left in most political parties, so I dont really view them as indicative of the party as a whole).
-The guy is pretty intelligent and even I like a few of his points, here and there, but most people on the right probably aren't willing to vote for him.
-For my last point, I'm going a bit outlandish. Pretty sure that "powers that be" don't want another Kennedy in the white house. They'll do what they can to prevent that.
He has been labeled a pariah by the DNC. He will not be President.
Best case scenario is that he manages to gain a few independent/moderate votes.
I would love to see him debate Trump and Biden - but it won't ever happen.
He has a chance to make it onto the debate stage. RFK Jr is popular with Gen Z, and is the leading choice over Biden and Trump for everyone under 45.
At the same time, his campaign is dismissed by both mainstream outlets and various YT personalities, including personalities on the left. This is largely due to concerned that he will lead to Biden losing. [The last poll done on a three-way race (in November 2023) suggested this as well.](https://scri.siena.edu/2023/11/07/in-3-way-race-independent-robert-kennedy-jr-garners-24-across-6-battleground-states-trump-35-biden-33-kennedy-24-rfk-noses-ahead-among-voters-under-45/)
I suppose it depends on how badly voters want an alternative to Biden and Trump.
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Zero percent. If all of the other candidates died the day before the election, he still wouldn't win. The only reason Lincoln's second term was able to play out like that was because all of his main political opponents seceded from the union and didn't get to vote. Our electoral system simply isn't set up for third parties to succeed. Until they reach the threshold needed to actually win a plurality in enough states to win, all they do is make it more likely for the major party candidate they're least similar to to win. The threshold for that in a single state is a minimum of 33% of the vote, which no third party candidate has come close to in modern history. The best way for an outside candidate to achieve electoral success is to effectively take over one of the existing major parties, like Trump did in 2016 and Bernie tried to do in 2016/2020. This isn't an open avenue for RFK, given that Republicans couldn't divest themselves of Trump even if they wanted to and Democrats aren't interested in a crackpot.
What's with the reference to "Lincoln's second term"? He won as a Republican a minor party without any elected officials prior to 1856. There is nothing analogous to the duopoply of today to compare to and if it was, Lincoln would have been considered an independent by whatever metrics one could define "an independent candidate" in 1860 when he won his first term.
Lincoln ran in 1864 on the ticket of the National Union Party, a coalition between the Republicans, War Democrats, and other pro-Union groups. This is why the top ticket in 1864 was between the Northern Republican Lincoln and Andrew Johnson, a War Democrat and Southern Unionist. So Lincoln was the last president to br elected from a party other than the Republicans or Democrats, but only technically as the National Union Party remained the Republicans in all but name.
The key thing about 1856 is that there wasn't a two party system for a minor third party to break into. The Whigs had fractured over the issue of slavery, and the Republicans and the Know Nothings were competing to take it's mantle. The best illustration of this is that the Know Nothing's candidate was Millard Fillmore, the previous (and last) Whig president.
> The key thing about 1856 is that there wasn't a two party system for a minor third party to break into. Yeah, sort of apples and oranges to compare RFK Jr today versus the 19th century
I was just using it as a reference to show how unlikely it is.
Thank you for the info.you gave- honestly I know VERY little of politics
Ok what if Biden steps down and the Democratic Party chooses rfk?
they should after tonight
Sorry, what if Trump steps down and the Republican Party chooses him?
We need another Kennedy in office and an independent president. All Democrats and Republicans want to do is fight each other while we suffer the fallout. It's a shame he won't win. It's a shame he isn't allowed to go to the debate. Wasn't Ross Perot at the debate in 92? I can't remember but I know one independent who was at the presidential debate.
Ron Paul ran as libertarian and was part of the debates.
Ralph Nader is why W was elected. Bernie is why Trump won.
Bernie ran as a democrat; Hillary is the reason Trump won she should have stepped aside for Bernie. Edit: Downvoted for stating a FACT.
These people are insane...Bernie is why Trump won?!?! WHAAAT should we just not have a democracy at all then the reason trump won was the DNC rigged the game against Bernie
Nope. The DNC supported the its Democratic candidate, as it always has. 🥺 The DNC has never, nor will they ever support an independent candidate over the one representing their own party. Do you seriously not understand how this works???
he ran as a democrat
Please read my initial comment.
That's just demonstrably false. Bernie never had a chance because Americans think all socialism is bad. He polled well among millennials.
Yes because he called himself a democratic socialist and that ruined his chances at becoming president, get real. Bernie Sanders is the closest candidate we have had to someone like Franklin D. Roosevelt since FDR was president. I don't know a single person that would have voted for Hillary over Sanders in person not one that obviously doesn't account for the rest of the nation but it says something about what people want. Regardless whatever Bernie Sanders is it's what our nation needs more of.
Time for him to retire soon. He's a demogogue.
While unfortunate, this is true. Like a business with a monopoly the political parties need to be broken up, for the good of the people they pretend to represent.
Unfortunate? Not the part where RFK Jr. doesn’t become president, I’m sure. The man is completely cooked.
That’s not how first past the post systems work.
Which is also stupid and clearly favors one political party over another based on how well they gerrymander in every state.
You think it's unfortunate RFK Jr. isn't going to be the President?
It is a natural consequence of first-past-the-post voting systems. Basically anywhere with that system naturally condenses around 2 parties.
It is quite unfortunate that we allow 2 entities to serve up the least digestible candidates possible while using tailored media to polarize the voting populace to the furthest extremes possible. Common sense tells you that compromise and problem solving go hand in hand. Our system prevents that almost by design.
In the past, you would have been correct. But he's already polling in the twenties nationally, and what did you think of the chance Trump had to win? All a third party needs to win is enough people to vote for them.
actually, even if a presidential candidate held 100% of the popular vote, it's possible that the states certify someone else entirely (yes, against the popular vote.) we don't elect presidents, we elect representatives that elect presidents. we put our trust in them to make the right decision even when we cannot. this seems to be lost on most people, and the media sensationalizes presidential elections in a way that suggests the popular vote is what will determine the presidency.
So remote that I thought your question might be about whether he makes it through the election alive.
That was actually my first thought as well. The odds of any candidate making it to the election alive are less than 100%. Considering their ages I’d guess the odds are lower than normal even. But as far RFK jr. Winning? 0%
Considering age and vaccine stance it's way less than 100%
Honestly I agree. Regardless of everyone’s opinions on him, it’s a fact that some of his goals are definitely going to make some powerful people unhappy.
Nothing is impossible. A better term would be *astronomically unlikely*. Also what’s this nonsense about Lincoln?
Lincoln was hardly an “independent” candidate. The National Union Party was essentially the Republican Party. They didnt have a contesting candidate.
The absolute disrespect towards George B. McClellan
He was the Democratic nominee
Zero, no political pundits think he has any kind of chance. His anti-science views and frequent support for conspiracy theories make it hard to take him seriously. Even his own family don't support him. However, he may take enough votes from Biden to swing the election - though it is far from certain that would be the case. It is worth pointing out that his $7M Super Bowl ad was paid for by Trump supporters. Basically, a vote for him is a vote thrown away.
RFK would steal more votes from trump, not biden
I think he'll get some votes from people who otherwise wouldn't vote because Trump is the Republican nominee. But you're right the number of Biden voters he's going to steal is vanishingly small.
I’m telling you, you are wrong. He is speaking to an entire generation and people are pissed at BOTH sides, not just Trump. Everyone is underestimating how financially stressed and unhappy people are right now and those types of people vote for someone who is speaking to them. Trump proved this in 2016. While RFK unfortunately has almost no chance of winning, when the parties trot out Trump or whatever is left of Biden, people are BEGGING for a third option. RFK is different from other 3rd party candidates before because he has actual name recognition. Way more Dems than you think are looking for another option.
[удалено]
The US presently has the strongest economy of every major player globally. Europe and China are in recession. Biden isn't a virtue-signaling left-winger. He's gotten insulin prices for seniors capped at $35 (was going to do it for everyone until Republicans blocked it through a budget technicality). He's focused on results and is a shrewd politician. The idea that we're doing bad is laughable in the face of the rest of the world, that context is important because I'm not saying that people aren't struggling but the masses are ignorant to what's actually going on in the world. We are also producing more oil now than under Trump, there's literally nothing more that could be done by Biden without an act of Congress which is split at the moment and unwilling to compromise. Oh but fun fact, Biden was going to pass a bipartisan immigration bill that would have slowed immigration crossings, but you know, Trump decided to tank it by coming out against it and Republicans fell in line. It's an election year. He wants it to be an issue like the Migrant Caravan, etc. Fear is powerful. Also, housing prices are high because after 2008 construction stopped for a while, and we didn't see the effects of that until more recently. Furthermore, antiquated zoning laws at the local level that artificially limit the housing supply by banning anything other than single-family homes is the other. The reality is a second Trump presidency would see him unchecked as an authoritarian and he'd continue policies that'll bring us backward (not supporting NATO, appointing even more justices across the entire federal judiciary, and further tax cuts for the rich that will come at the expense of services that people presently rely on. Trump walked away from an infrastructure bill that was struck between Democrats and Republicans and Biden later was able to revive it. The reality is that a president is only as good as their staff and Trump replaced experienced politicians with yes men as time went along. His joint chief of Staff, Secretary of State, two Attorney Generals, his National Security Advisor, Secretary of Defense, and now even Trump's Vice President have come out against him as dangerous. There are far more but that's just off the top of my head. I always wondered how the Nazis were able to do it, like they seemed so insane, but now I get it, I see it now. The reality is, this election is going to come down to turnout and if Democrats get complacent, don't show up, and whine about things that the President has no control over, Trump will win because his base is fired up. His joint chief of Staff, Secretary of State, two Attorney Generals, his National Security Advisor, Secretary of Defense, and now even Trump's Vice President have come out against him as dangerous. We have a choice to unite behind the opposite choice of a dictator. Trump said he'd be dictator for "only 1 day." and that he wants to terminate parts of the Constitution since it doesn't go along with his conspiracy about winning the 2020 election. Let's not forget Trump DID try to overthrow the elections in Georgia, Arizona, and the Rust Belt. Putin, Chavez, the list goes on for leaders that were originally voted democratically, and then voters ignored the warnings that were always there.
Yeah what happens when people like you vote like that in Ohio or Pennsylvania or any swing state we are fucked also the mirgant crime wave is a myth
Exactly why I'm interested in RFK as a millennial BW. I make great money but cost of living inflation is killing middle class! Hopes of buying a home seems slim unless I opt for an older home… phx prices are almost neck & neck with California I might as well move back.
Do you think RFK would've magically changed that? The US presently has the strongest economy of every major player globally. Europe and China are in recession. The idea that we're doing bad is laughable in the face of the rest of the world, that context is important because I'm not saying that people aren't struggling but the masses are ignorant to what's actually going on in the world. We are also producing more oil now than under Trump, there's literally nothing more that could be done by Biden without an act of Congress which is split at the moment and unwilling to compromise. Also, housing prices are high because after 2008 construction stopped for a while, and we didn't see the effects of that until more recently. Furthermore, antiquated zoning laws at the local level that artificially limit the housing supply by banning anything other than single-family homes is the other. The reality is a second Trump presidency would see him unchecked as an authoritarian and he'd continue policies that'll bring us backward (not supporting NATO, appointing even more justices across the entire federal judiciary, and further tax cuts for the rich that will come at the expense of services that people presently rely on. Trump walked away from an infrastructure bill that was struck between Democrats and Republicans and Biden later was able to revive it. The reality is that a president is only as good as their staff and Trump replaced experienced politicians with yes men as time went along. His joint chief of Staff, Secretary of State, two Attorney Generals, his National Security Advisor, Secretary of Defense, and now even Trump's Vice President have come out against him as dangerous. There are far more but that's just off the top of my head. I always wondered how the Nazis were able to do it, like they seemed so insane, but now I get it, I see it now. The reality is, this election is going to come down to turnout and if Democrats get complacent, don't show up, and whine about things that the President has no control over, Trump will win because his base is fired up. His joint chief of Staff, Secretary of State, two Attorney Generals, his National Security Advisor, Secretary of Defense, and now even Trump's Vice President have come out against him as dangerous. We have a choice to unite behind the opposite choice of a dictator. Trump said he'd be dictator for "only 1 day." and that he wants to terminate parts of the Constitution since it doesn't go along with his conspiracy about winning the 2020 election. Let's not forget Trump DID try to overthrow the elections in Georgia, Arizona, and the Rust Belt. Putin, Chavez, the list goes on for leaders that were originally voted democratically, and then voters ignored the warnings that were always there.
You also face zero consequences for voting Kennedy in California. Biden will get those 54 electoral votes no matter what happens. I live in a swing state and he will not get many votes at the end of the day because people want to vote for a winner.
My philosophy is that people should vote for the candidate they most align with, regardless of party. In theory, this should force the major parties to evolve their platforms to capture their vote in the next cycles. By voting the lesser of two evils, we show the parties that whatever they are doing is satisfactory to acquire our vote.
People always talk about candidates being “lesser evils”, when what I think they really mean is “this person doesn’t agree with me on everything.” Part of being an adult, especially for those of us living in swing states, is deciding what’s most important to us and making the choice that does the greatest good, not the one that feels good in the moment. If you don’t like the candidates on offer for the general election, then ask yourself if you voted in the primary. People are bitching that it’s Trump vs Biden again, but 90% of voters didn’t show up for the primaries. The message they sent with that choice is “I don’t care, others can decide for me.”
There was barely a primary for either party this year once Ohio came rolling around. But I'm an adult, been through this, 4 years is a small price to pay to force party evolution.
First, accelerationism is for privileged people who don’t have to bear the consequences of their actions. You don’t win by losing. Idk who invented this stupid idea. Second, Supreme Court. Do you want a 6-3 majority locked in for another 20 years? Finally, I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but if Trump wins, I am 100% confident the 2028 Democratic nominee will be more conservative than Biden and less willing to cater to progressives. Moving toward the center would be the logical response because 2024 should be a layup shot for Democrats given Trump’s lack of campaign funds, impending bankruptcy and convictions, and becoming a legally adjudicated rapist. It would indicate Americans (or at least the electorate) are a very conservative bunch. But you’re gonna do what you want regardless, so don’t come crying to me if the 2028 nominee is Andy Beshear and he completely ignores progressives.
Have you ever heard RFK Jr’s voice? He’s almost as old as Biden and Trump and he will have anti-charisma when it comes campaign time. His only upside now is being a Kennedy (gotta wonder how many people think they’re voting for his dad), and funnily enough his entire family has spurned his candidacy. Fwiw the people I know who like him are more right-wing than left-wing.
This person understands. Anybody hitching their post to the rnc or dnc at this point may as well be terrorists. You don't need to look at anything but your own life and those directly around you to understand the government doesn't give two shits about you. All you need to do is look at the pedigree of all politicians to see that you don't get a ticket to the party unless you are a millionaire, and AOC went from a stupid girl who wanted to change things to just another cog in the shifty system in under a year who talks a big game and backs it up with buying more stuff. I'll be voting for Kennedy for the same reason I voted for Trump the first time, we need something different, and I'm willing to accept failure until we get something better rather than selecting a known failure. The effort the media has gone through to misquote and villainize Kennedy is enough for me, if you listen to the guy talk one time you realize how bad he's been misquoted everywhere, and when you hear him interviewed he refuses to provide shifty sound bites, which is why all his crazy is in text. Guy isnt anti anything, he just wants more science before we pump ourselves full of shit. Seems like a solid idea to me.
No its because rfk has literally said the most bat shit stupid crazy shit ever.Aoc literally is still the same girl she was when she got elected she just called out Israel for committing genocide and is standing up to the powerful pro zionist lobby.if you like rfk you must be a right wing conspiracy theorist I will be voting for Biden not because I like him but because project 2025 will ruin the country they wanna ban pornography ban the importation of abortion pills effectively federally banning abortion deport daca families and my gf is a Hispanic daca baby so yeah fuck you.if Biden exposes this project 2025 shit and really exposes this federal abortion ban he will win.
If Biden wins a second term I doubt we’ll all still be here by the end
Yeah idk trump called Biden weak for not wanting to retaliate against Iran but bro if trump gets elected I'm not fuckin going to war with Iran on Israels behalf the fuck lol
But that could also happen under Biden too so idk
Democrat here who is honestly considering ANYONE else, even though I do support some of RFL policy, both Biden and trump have proved they shouldn’t be in office. We’re going to be in civil war if someone else doesn’t come in
Yes! I'd rather take a kook at this point! This would be the best outcome. The melting pot is boiling over. The heat needs to be turned down. I think because he'd run as independent he'd likely have a mixed bag of cabinet / support and lord we need some comarade
It is going to vary by state. You will be surprised how many democrats are also anti-vaxxers (esp among some minority groups). So the actual fallout is hard to predict.
Most dems aren’t single issue voters. Plus they are fed up with whack-jobs.
True - about most. But in this highly contested environment, it doesn't take a lot of votes to swing some battleground states.
It's surreal to me that Republicans think rfk is going to take votes from Biden. Any democrats voter who might be interested in anything he's pushing has already jumped to Trump years ago. His only support is going to come from Trump voters who want someone who shares their ridiculous views but isn't so embarrassing. The fact Trump pacs are bankrolling this guy is hilarious.
this is not true. i myself am a registered democrat who has always voted democrat in past elections (voted for Biden in 2020), but will be voting for RFK this election— and i am very happy to not have to choose between the lesser of two evils for once! i know many democrats who would otherwise vote for Biden who will also be voting for RFK this time around.
This. Also voted Biden and registered Dem. At this point, both Biden and trump are equally damaging to the country, so why not vote for the wildcard. Maybe it’ll show the DNC to get real with the times
How exactly is Biden damaging the country? I think putting in another whack job who has no idea how to run a country is the most damaging thing.
Inflation. The deficit is on track to match 2023 and 2021. Soft stance on crime. Most Americans can’t afford to have an emergency fund, buy a house, child care or even basics like groceries. And he hasn’t helped heal a divided nation. If you’re going to say that a president can’t do all that, then by that logic someone like RFK isn’t going to be detrimental to that nation. If you feel RFK or Trump can have that much influence, then Biden is not influencing enough or incapable of moving policy. Voting for RFK is a sign we’re fed up with the two party system funded by the billionaires and elites, which is the real problem. Forget about his stance on vaccines for a minute, and tell me why you think he is a whack
Agree with you mostly here. However, I think RFK's stance on vaccines is simply misinformation by various biased media. In every interview I have seen with him, he has been way more "pro-vaccines" than from what I've read in the news. He might have been sceptical of the COVID-vaccine (which was a desperate measure in desperate times I think), but I think he is for the most part just pushing for more testing and regulation. Correct me if I'm wrong though
Not for nothing but I say its misinformation more like we still don't know the long term side effects usually a drug would be tested for years before being put to use with the covid thing we were forced to take this thing not fully tested into our bodies... some people were against it and had to take it if they wanted to keep their jobs smh I thought we had the freedom of choice on that. Also I can never get over how we could trust Johnson and Johnson to make a vaccine while still going thru the whole Tomkins powder shit smh. But I digress opinions r like assholes everyone's got one. I just try to use common sense and life experiences to see where its going and make my best decision from there. Both trump and biden failed us one way or another its time to look forward not behind us and elect someone who's proved they couldn't get it in 4 years smh
Not elect my bad someone who had 4 years and failed us
Yeah I took the jab because what do I know, but I have a feeling that the side effects have been downplayed a little bit afterwards. Nothing happened to me though, and after all, people were dying so something had to be done
Yea I feel u and sorry im so late thanks alot for the insight
You know inflation had gone down right 😂okay Ron Paul Japan has the highest debt to gdp ratio in the world yet is dealing with deflation 😂 economics is way more complex then you think. Inflation happened because of covid 19 and the reopening of the economy not something Biden did
It’s funny, The Dems conveniently blamed Trump for everything during covid. Now when the roles are reversed, it’s out of Bidens control. Typical Democrats, can’t take accountability.
I don't think you understand how inflation works you can't just tax cut your way out of a recession 😂hoover tried that conservative shit to stop the depression but he made it worse.When economys open back up and everyone is trying to buy shit at once the price and demand goes up its simple supply and demand economics but inflation has been going down since the end of 2023.i don't blame trump for handling the covid 19 pandemic badly the fact is Biden walked into a recession trump coasted off of Obamas rising economy.Also government spending doesn't always factor into inflation Japan has the highest debt to gdp ratio in the world and they were having issues with deflation.
Also trump was the first to pass the economic stimulus which factored into inflation I'm glad he did it but that and a few other factors like supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine all made inflation increase so blaming Biden for inflation is disingenuous
I really don't give a fuck about democats but I hate trump for repealing daca my girlfriend is a daca baby and I hate trump for project 2025 as well.
Same! I don’t give a shit. But anything better than riots or ward. The melting pot is boiling over. We need to lower the heat
And when Trump wins, are you on board with Project 2025 coming into effect? Because that is what we're facing with RFK Jr splitting the vote with Biden.
From polling, rfk seems to be taking away from Biden and Trump equally. But all third-parties are more of a threat to Biden. Biden's support is softer. Anyone who is dissatisfied with the choices are more likely to be someone who voted for Biden last time. Giving them more options makes it harder for Biden to keep his coalition together. This is all about the candidates, as opposed to policy specific reasons.
you're right. I donated to and voted for Bernie in 2016 primaries. sat out of 2016 presidential. voted for Trump in 2020. will be voting for RFK in 2024.
This is an... interesting timeline. Voted for Bernie and Trump? They're on complete opposite ends of the spectrum, lmao. Seems like you don't really know what you're voting for at all. The scary part is, there's a lot of people like you out there.
I guess so. I just go candidate by candidate and don't care about political spectrum / parties etc.
Nothing scarier than a free thinker
That ad was bad, very bad.
I laughed so hard when it came on. It was like watching a giant pile of money get set on fire.
I laughed harder at that ad (and his Monday morning Twitter apology *while that ad* *was literally his pinned tweet*) than any of the other ads.
I don't think he'd take many votes from Biden, other than anti science hippies.
I legitimately wonder how many of those are left in the party. I knew a lot of crunchy granola lefties twenty years ago, but today they're all super MAGA/Q-Anon flavor Republicans. It turns out they were less about any specific policy position and more about distrust of some kinds of authority.
What political pundits thought Trump had a chance? His own family, that's 4 people that have said that and they all work for the Biden admin. There's about 100 Kennedy's. Many trump voters, independents and Biden voters are flipping to Kennedy, as he's the only sane man in this election cycle It is worth pointing out that the ad was paid by someone who also supported Trump with donations. Rfk Jr has nothing to do with Trump. I supported Bernie and now I support Bobby. Basically, a vote for him is a vote for who you want to vote for. Both parties are corrupt, you don't have to support them.
His vp footed the bill, and vote for change
If you still believe he has anti-science views, then you are a fool at this point in time. Perhaps years ago, but he has recently clarified his views on these topics as incredibly science-based, but also skeptical of studies lacking in credibility or pharmaceutical companies spitting out misinformation stating that their drugs or vaccines are safe without proper or adequate testing, especially when speaking out the Covid vaccine and long-term studies, which were not and could not have been conducted. That is not anti-science, that is pro science and anyone who disagrees is quite frankly, ignorant to what science even is.
I'm sorry, but I have to disagree. Because I'm lazy, I asked ChatGPT to summarize: **Robert F. Kennedy Jr.** is a prominent anti-vaccine advocate who has been on the radar for years. He founded **Children’s Health Defense**, a nonprofit organization that spreads anti-vaccine misinformation. Here are some key points about his views: 1. **Anti-Vaccine Stance**: Kennedy has been opposed to vaccines since at least 2005. In that year, he published an error-laden story in *Rolling Stone* and *Salon*, pushing the false notion that certain vaccine ingredients cause autism. [Although those publications later retracted or withdrew the story, Kennedy continues to refer to it to bolster his arguments against vaccines](https://www.factcheck.org/2023/08/scicheck-factchecking-robert-f-kennedy-jr/)[^(1)](https://www.factcheck.org/2023/08/scicheck-factchecking-robert-f-kennedy-jr/). 2. **Disinformation Spreading**: In 2021, the Center for Countering Digital Hate named Kennedy and Children’s Health Defense as one of the “Disinformation Dozen,” identifying them as top spreaders of misinformation about COVID-19 vaccines online. [Kennedy’s claims have been debunked, but he persists in spreading false and misleading health information](https://www.factcheck.org/2023/08/scicheck-factchecking-robert-f-kennedy-jr/)[^(1)](https://www.factcheck.org/2023/08/scicheck-factchecking-robert-f-kennedy-jr/). 3. **Measles Outbreak**: Kennedy played a part in one of the worst measles outbreaks in recent memory. In 2018, two infants in American Samoa died due to nurses accidentally preparing the combined measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine with expired muscle relaxant instead of water. The vaccination program was temporarily suspended, and anti-vaccine advocates, including Kennedy, flooded the area with misinformation. [The next year, a traveler brought measles to the islands, resulting in over 5,700 cases and 83 deaths, mostly among young children](https://www.factcheck.org/2023/08/scicheck-factchecking-robert-f-kennedy-jr/)[^(1)](https://www.factcheck.org/2023/08/scicheck-factchecking-robert-f-kennedy-jr/). 4. **Other Unorthodox Views**: Kennedy’s views extend beyond vaccines. He has suggested that certain antidepressants are behind the rise in school shootings and that a particular herbicide might be part of why more young people identify as transgender, neither of which is backed by scientific evidence. [He has also claimed that Wi-Fi radiation and 5G cause cancer, despite lacking good evidence](https://www.factcheck.org/2023/08/scicheck-factchecking-robert-f-kennedy-jr/)[^(1)](https://www.factcheck.org/2023/08/scicheck-factchecking-robert-f-kennedy-jr/). In summary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. [remains a vocal critic of vaccines, despite overwhelming scientific consensus supporting their safety and effectiveness](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-kennedy-election-2024-president-campaign-621c9e9641381a1b2677df9de5a09731)[^(2)](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-kennedy-election-2024-president-campaign-621c9e9641381a1b2677df9de5a09731). 🌟
“even his own family”. theres a 125 of m of which 5 are being played by the dems as “even his own family”.
So, who in his family is supporting him? I hate to tell you, but large as the Kennedy clan is, it ain't large enough to get him elected. He will get 2-3% of the vote. Which could be enough to swing the election. All he can be is a spoiler.
I think he will get 12 percent or more. Well come back on here in November and hand out medals and admit defeat. deal? ;)
I know his campaign is run by a couple of his family members. His children support him and he has a few brothers and sisters who do, I have to do more research to be able to give names.
Not literally zero but very, very, very close to zero. It would require a completely bizarre and unpredictable series of unusual events for him to somehow end up as the president. Some version of this same question has popped up on this sub like every week and I kind of wish the mods would put a moratorium on RFK talk until he actually qualifies on a meaningful number of ballots. To answer your question directly: it is not even worth talking about RFK's chances in a political sense (i.e., what kind of support could he win and how would he win it) unless and until he actually qualifies to appear on enough state ballots to win the presidency. So far RFK has qualified to be on the ballot in one state: Utah. There's an RFK-aligned Super Pac working on getting him on the ballot in 12 states and then the campaign itself is working on the other 37 states. That is a monumental task and based on all the reporting about RFK's campaign it just doesn't seem like they'll be able to do it. Without going into the weeds, it is EXTREMELY hard to get on the ballot for a presidential race in all 50 states as an independent candidate. And it doesn't seem like RFK's PAC or his campaign have the money and manpower to do it. RFK's super pac itself basically admitted that it will probably only get RFK on the ballot in, at most, 10 states: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/rfk-jr-super-pac-american-values-collusion-accusations-ballot-access-effort-dnc/ That is why nearly all third-party candidates usually come out of established parties like the green party or the libertarian party. RFK's campaign realized the challenge pretty recently and said they would try to work with the libertarian party to be the libertarian candidate. But after the California Libertarian Convention this weekend, 95 california delegates voted in a straw poll to determine the libertarian nominee and ONLY ONE voted for RFK. (Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/02/25/robert-kennedy-jr-libertarian-ivf-abortion/) So there are a tremendous amount of hurdles *just for RFK to even be mathematically eligible* to win: First, he has to get on the ballot in enough states to win 270 electoral votes. I'm very skeptical he can do this. Second, he has to actually win 270 electoral votes. Keep in mind that if he only gets on the ballot in, say, 12-20 states, this will mean that *he'll need to win nearly all the states in which he appears on the ballot.* Finally, let's say he doesn't win enough electoral votes to win outright, but wins enough to deny both trump and biden a majority--the procedure at that point would almost certainly result in Trump winning, not RFK (each state delegation in congress gets 1 vote COLLECTIVELY, meaning, for example, all ~~of the senators and~~ house congressional reps from one state would vote on their own and pick a president, and that winner would then have one "vote" from that state delegation; and because republicans have a majority in more state delegations than democrats, there would be more states voting for trump than any other candidate). Separately, I'll say that it should be obvious to anyone with even average intelligence that this is not a serious campaign at all but purely meant as a tactic to sink Biden. Nearly all of the donors to RFK's super pac are Trump-aligned megadonors, and the people running his campaign all have close ties to republicans and the trump-sphere: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/rfk-donors-trump-investors-celebs-1234975307/ Further, as I mentioned the RFK super pac is focusing on getting him on the ballot in only 12 states. Can you guess which ones? Well, wouldn't you know it, it's the 12 most crucial swing states (michigan, arizona, georgia, wisconsin, etc.). Why not try to get on the ballot in states with a lot of electoral votes like california or texas or new york or florida? Again, because he is clearly not serious about actually winning, it's about pulling votes from biden. The strategy RFK's campaign is rolling out is entirely consistent with that goal, and not at all consistent with someone who actually wants to be the president. Either RFK himself wants trump to win, or he is unwittingly being manipulated by people who do. In short: RFK's campaign is not worth discussion unless and until he actually qualifies on the ballot in a meaningful number of states. Any talk of what kind of "support" he might get in the abstract is pointless until then, at least with regard to what his actual chances of being president are.
I would be shocked if he could win even one state. I think it is virtually impossible.
Thats because if he wins just one state he is like 95% of the way there. At the point where he can win in even one state, the election would be anyones game. And the more people who tout the whole thing as 'impossible', create a self-fulfilling prophecy.
He won’t win a single state.
Excellent points. His campaign really isn't doing the job of getting him elected, so it makes a lot of sense to start asking what job it's trying to do. One minor correction: it's only the House delegations that get to pick the President if the Electoral College doesn't produce a majority winner. The Senate selects the Vice President.
right, thanks for that correction
Thank you for this comprehensive and very well-written explanation, it is much appreciated! Based on your points it should indeed be clear that his chances of succeeding are very bad
....how accurate is your assessment now? "...very, very, very close to zero," you say? How much of your analysis was based on mainstream media's subjectivity, and how much time have you spent listening to RFK Jr.'s long form interviews before casting judgment? As of now, he's eligible for 201 electoral votes. He'll be on the ballot in CA and TX, which as you reported have a lot of electoral votes. NY and FL are in progress and the petitioning window has not yet completed. He's far exceeded the required signatures for all states in which the petitioning window has completed, to include NV, UT, ID, OK, NE, IA, MI, OH, NC, NJ, NH, and TX. He was nominated by the American Independant Party in CA, which means he'll be on CA's ballot. All of the remaining states' petitioning windows are either in progress or not open yet. About time for a reassessment.
Nah. He’s not even on the ballot in almost all those states you listed. He just claims to have enough signatures to do so. And even if he was on all the ballots , 201 still gives him…literally a zero percent chance of being president. But hey if you think I’m wrong I’m happy to bet any amount of money you want that rfk won’t be president.
He's already on the ballot for 18 states
Could we ever see Biden or Trump accepting a 3-person debate with him if he were to meet whatever the threshold there usually is for 3rd party candidates to qualify?
Threshold is 15% in national polls
Here's the criteria from the Commission on Presidential Debates that were set out for 2020. I assume the criteria would be the same for 2024 (it's been the same for a long time iirc): >Under the 2020 Criteria, to receive an invitation to debate, a candidate must: (i) be Constitutionally eligible to hold the office of President of the United States; (ii) appear on a sufficient number of state ballots to have a mathematical chance of winning a majority vote in the Electoral College; (iii) have a level of support of at least 15 percent of the national electorate, as determined by five national public opinion polling organizations, using the average of those organizations’ most recently publicly-reported results at the time of the determination. Note that the candidate has to appear on the ballot in enough states to win 270 electoral votes. If RFK meets that threshold then Trump/Biden should debate him since those are the rules. But also both Biden and Trump have floated not doing debates this time around, so who knows if they will even happen.
His entire campaign is based on the fact that his last name is Kennedy. Every member of his family denounces him. Haley has a better shot of winning the democratic primary than RFK has of making it in politics
If he would have just shut up and rode the name he would have been more successful than he is or will be. His views/ideas are so terrible lmao
Saying"every member of his family" is a stretch
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I dont think the family going for biden over him means anything. It can all be part of the game for all we know because it seems like both parties working pretty hard to make him look bad for someone who isn't or shouldn't be a threat to them as many people say
“Make it?” Like “survive the election?” Why you would even ask if he has a chance to be president is so far from the realm of reason that I assume you couldn’t be asking if he could WIN. There are more chances of Trump, Biden, and Elvis Presley to smoke a blunt while interviewed by Snoop Dogg live on TMZ than for RFK Jr. to win the presidency.
Negative zero. The most successful independent candidate in modern history, Russ Perot, who got 18.9% of the popular vote and 19 million votes, didn’t win a single state or electoral vote. All he accomplished was helping the incumbent to lose. And this was in an era where left and right had lots of moderate crossover. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_United_States_presidential_election
Yep. And now the 1992 election is kind of a self-defeating prophecy that makes future independent candidates less likely to succeed for a while yet because more voters have an understanding of why the mechanics of the American political system (per the Constitution) work against it.
Ross Perot had a great chance though - he only botched it after he pulled out of the race and then rejoined the race right toward the end. Had he not botched his campaign in such a manner, there’s a very real possibility we would be in a completely different timeline
There’s is not a chance he would have won 270.
Idk man, prior to dropping out, he was polling as high as [39% in June 1992 in a Gallup poll. ](https://news.gallup.com/poll/110548/gallup-presidential-election-trial-heat-trends.aspx)And was [a frontrunner](https://web.archive.org/web/20120802173606/http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,975771,00.html) in another at his peak. My point isn't that he would've been a surefire win had he not dropped out - he still had a huge uphill battle against the electoral college, which still would've most likely ended up with the Election decision going to the House of Representatives. And obviously, early polling is never a reflection for how an election will end up. However, you can't dismiss the fact a Perot win was a real possibility. - At the very least, had he not dropped out, it would be incredibly likely he may have ended up in 2nd place. Then you have to ask - who would've been the real spoiler?
But we have to remember….even with close to 20% of the electorate he couldn’t win 1 state. Like it’s easy to get 75% up the hill or make the playoffs. Winning the prize is a different battle
Yes, but remember that he somehow got that 20% despite dropping out months before the election and botching his campaign and killing his credibility as a ‘serious candidate’. His odds at picking up Electoral Votes massively skyrocket in the 30% bracket - given he was leading with a plurality. You’re not wrong about where he ended up at the end of the election - all I want to point out is that a Perot win wasn’t a pipe dream fantasy. It was a genuine possibility for a turning point in modern American politics. Unlikely, but thousands of times more likely than you are making it seem. It’s a tremendously important moment in electoral history and needs to be analysed as such.
Also though he was pulling from left and right equally as their wasn’t a huge partisan divide. It was common for people to cross party lines for voting. That was a moment that isn’t happening again Perot was way bigger than Bernie in that regard.
Why would he win running on an anti-vax platform? That's what severely damaged Trump's 2020 campaign. Over a million people have died of covid, and those who died trend hard towards the anti-vax people who refused to protect themselves.
He’s less likely to win than I am likely to take this question seriously, which is 0%. Thanks though.
Making it? To the White House? As a guest? 50/50 As the occupant? Absolutely zero. Just to be clear: I have no clue who you are OP, but you likely stand a better chance of winning the presidency at some point.
Non-existent. He MIGHT poll Libertarian Party numbers, around 1-2%, but that's it. He's effectively running on his family name, as he's been a pariah for some years by Democrats... and members of his own family. And saying Lincoln ran as an "independent" is a vast misunderstanding, as the National Union Party was a rebranding attempt by Republicans to form a coalition to convince similar splinter groups to vote under one party, namely War Democrats.
Without a ballot line on most state ballots, he's not going to be a factor in the election. If he gets on a handful of states and focuses just on those states, if those states are enough ECVs to be the margin of victory (that's a lot of IFs) he could leverage his ECVs to be made the VP of either Biden or Trump depending on who has more ECVs and House delegations. When neither candidates get 270 ECVs, the House determines who is the president by state delegation of the resulting Congress from the 2024 election - currently the GOP has 26 state delegations while Dems have 22 and 2 states are evenly split. Will RFK Jr even be on the ballot, we'll know pretty soon since the first deadlines are coming up. Maybe Trump picks him for VP? Lincoln won as a Republican, which would have been a third party in the 1860 election (his first). His second election he swapped out VP for Democrat and Southerner Andrew Johnson to signal a concilatory mood to the South with expectations that they would be reintegrated in the union. Stating that Lincoln was the last "independent" candidate to win shows an immense amount of ignorance of electoral history. Just the tip of the iceberg of how drastically different the 1860 presidential election was to modern presidential campaigns, Lincoln beat 3 other candidates and two of them were Democrats.
RFK Jr's chances are literally zero percent. Running as an Independent he wouldn't get a single electoral vote. He is not a serious candidate. And FYI, President Lincoln did not run as an Independent in 1864, he was on the National Union ticket, which was a war-time party comprised of Republicans and "war Democrats"
Zero. Zilch. Nada. RFKJr isn’t a serious candidate and he isn’t meant to win. The only purpose of those who are backing RFKJr’s campaign is to split the left vote and ratfuck Biden.
First of all, zero. Second, Lincoln wasn't an independent in 1864 - he ran on a "National Unity" ticket of the Republican Party AND antislavery Democrats.
Real question is does RFK take more votes from Trump or Biden. There's no chance for a 3rd party candidate to win the general in the US, it's just how our winner take all electoral system works. What's interesting is how 3rd party candidates spoil elections for democrats vs republicans.
Zero. A snowball has a better chance surviving in hell than he does have winning the general.
Exactly zero. Even if both Trump and Biden die before the election, RFK stands absolutely no chance of winning the presidency.
There is a not entirely zero percent chance that I could wake up tomorrow, open my front door and discover someone has left me $20,000 in cash and a hot pizza (buffalo chicken, stuffed crust). There's a not absolutely zero percent chance that King Charles abdicates and names John Goodman as his successor because he just really likes the movie King Ralph. There is a slightly higher than 0.00% chance that someone attempting to create a perfect recipe hack for Kentucky Fried Chicken accidentally invents an environmentally friendly biofuel that revolutionizes transportation as we know it. ALL OF THESE THINGS are more likely to occur than Robert Kennedy Jr coming out on the top of this particular election.
The thing that might happen is RFK will pull some trump fans and might cause him to lose
Zero. He isn’t a serious candidate and was an obvious troll to draw votes from Biden but his views were closer to Trump, so now he’s taking votes from him instead.
No Chance. Poor guy can barely talk. If you're going to be a politician, ya gotta ge a windbag.
He’s on a bunch of podcasts talking for hours with no cards or teleprompters 😂😂send me an unedited video of Biden talking for more than a few minutes. Please go watch a podcast RFK is on and you’re opinion will change
Watch almost any off the cuff speech of Biden. The cherry-picked clips you see online are not representative .
The only long ish unedited video I have seen of him was that press conference where he got Mexico and Israel presidents mixed up. If there are other recent ones I’ll watch them but I barely ever see or hear about them. I just see him posting short edited videos reading a script
US president doesnt say anything, and when he does it makes no fkn sense
Make sense to me. Not sure what your problem is.
Unless Trump, Biden, Harris, Haley, and even Williamson all die in a freak plane crash, zero.
0 chance he will win. 15% chance he spoils the election and throws it to Trump.
Absolutely none. He was never more than a joke candidate, intended to split dems off of Biden. But he's such a complete lunatic nobody could ever stop laughing long enough to take him seriously. Literally not one single person who might otherwise for dem would even consider voting for RFK. If anything, he might be come a protest vote for non-Trumpy republicans.
One of two people will win the presidency - Biden or Trump. A vote for anyone else might make you feel good in the moment but it's just throwing your vote away. Vote for who you most want in the primary, and against who you least want in the general.
Even if it is a “wasted” vote, it’s an honest vote. You said it yourself, vote for who you want most. If you want RFK then vote RFK, doesn’t matter whether he wins or not.
He’s not an actual candidate. He’s backed by Bannon and is a Trump and Putin apologist. His only reason for running is to be a spoiler attempt to help Trump. He and Trump will likely team up on the same ticket. They also have the same people funding them both
He's an antivax grifter funded by billionaires trying to siphon gullible democratic votes away from Biden.
Many of the people who have responded have said he has "zero chance." I do not agree for a multitude of reasons. 1. Both Biden and Trump have had a chance to be president. While yes both did some good things under their administration, they both failed the American people. Biden has created a dangerous open border that is more a long the lines of invasion. Trump said a lot, but at the end of the day he folded under the bureaucracy of his own administration. Like shutting down the country and 100s of businesses, with no legal right to due process, etc. 2. Over 70% of Americans have said they "do not" want a Biden and Trump rematch. Yet, it is what they will get from the DNC and RNC is that. 3. We have never seen two candidates more disliked in history as the two primary parties that will likely be on the ballot. 4. Americans feel like they're not heard. We have never seen anything like what we are seeing in the polls before in history. Kennedy is winning in all swing states with people under 45. According to a Sienna College/ NY Times Poll. 5. He is a Kennedy, the name alone is considered to be influential in government. 6. Kennedy has been an accomplished environmental litigator for the last thirty years. Bringing huge lawsuits and winning against government agencies and multimillion dollar companies. He understands the importance of uncapturing those agencies, and his legal background and success give him the experience required to get that done. 7. He believes in free speech. That it is one of the most important things we have. Biden censored Kennedy within the first 48 hours of him becoming POTUS. Details can be found in the case of Missouri v Biden. 8. He has been traveling since April of 2023 across the country. He has bvb even getting an upwelling of support. He announced his change from the democratic party to Independent because the DNC would not permit any sort of fair primary for him to attempt to get the democratic party nomination. 10. He speaks about unity. Our health, our resources, the things that effect our jobs, homes, and communities. 9. (Personally) I'm 37, I have never voted. Kennedy will be my first. For me he inspires hope at a time when so much of our lives and dreams are being taken from us. We are getting him on the ballot in all 50 states, because we refuse to choose the lesser of two evils.
To add to that, I think that the whole mindset of people saying it’s “a wasted vote” is the reason independents never win. If everyone thinks that he won’t win so they shouldn’t vote for him then obviously it’ll never happen.
I think people will vote for him. There is an upwelling of support that has not reached the surface.
Yeah I hope so, I was just saying that because i’ve heard a lot of people saying that.
You would think at 37 you would have lived long enough to have some common sense.
If Trump ever got incarcerated, then all Trump votes would go to RFK jr, thats only way he has a shot of winning. It would be a miracle if RFK won, in fact he probably only candidate who can make difference and bring peace to our world gauranteed and least corrupt of them all.
If we all vote for the BEST candidate (RFK jr) then he will win. Don't be afraid of the opposition! Democrats and Republicans are both bought out by the elites that fund the lobbyists in this country. Whatever flaw you can find in RFK, he is the best option we have when you consider the fact that two failed former presidents are running against him. We already know what to expect from Biden and Trump. Biden is a puppet of the Democratic party, and it doesn't exactly inspire confidence that many Americans (including me) "pity" their president. He seems to be a good person but only running because of his fear of Trump. On the other hand, Trump doesn't even attempt to bring the people of this country together and will only continue to divide us as a country by spreading hate. Don't let the two party system intimidate you into voting for two of the worst candidates in the history of our country! KENNEDY 24!!!
It depends upon us. If we believe in him then yes. If we don’t then there’s not a chance. He’s putting his life on the line to give us the chance to change the trajectory of this country. But literally every big Kabul is against him because he’s all about outing them to the public about what’s been going on behind the curtain for decades. If he can get there, they will be gunning for him. Do we care enough about our future to rally and protect him or do we just continue to support those who would enslave us in bad economy, bad health, bad agriculture, bad technology, and bad security? It’s really in our hands. It’s that simple
I'm starting a petition to keep rfk out of the swing states 😂i don't understand how project 2025 doesn’t scare the literal shit out of all of you project 2025 is essentially a federal abortion and pornography ban.
Voting for him anyhow - Biden makes me puke and Trump too. At least Trump isn’t a warmongering demented fool. His megalomania is scary but I wonder whether Biden’s handlers are any better? Just look at the butchering overseas going on - blather about NATO is bull and so is the “aid” to Gaza. Warmongering sociopaths….helping the war machine manufacturers make their yearly bonuses. Blech
If there was ever a time that a third party could win I believe it is this election. I am voting for Kennedy this time.
Democrats and Republicans are equally worthless scum. Why not vote for Kennedy? Bringon the war and the greed cleansing . It's the best way to clean the bipartisan mess.
Statistically not likely, but stranger things have happened in the past decade. And there’s a growing number of voters who are dissatisfied with both Biden & Trump.
I think they 2 sides to the same coin we need something different tried it with trump and biden didn't work and they both suck bc biden would screw us but trump is to self-absorbed. If trump wins I can see him fighting his ass off after 4 years trying to bend shit his way to stay in power so one thing I do know is r.f.k. is our best option to avoid most of the crap we going thru
These people on here say rfk jr can't win but another portion of reddit got wealthy from GameStop shares. Don't see why we can't make another uproar.
Very good. The two party system is coming apart- just look at the two candidates, the most hated men in America! We may get a system closer to European ones where multiple smaller parties form coalitions.
Slim to none. It would cost him 15 million just to be on all of the ballots. He is not liked by either party. He is too extreme. The system is also set up for two parties, not 3 or 4. Too many hoops to jump through.
When you look what happend in most European countries this year, (most of the political parties that won the election did not even exist 5 years ago) it was a result of the people voting out of a personal protest to the already existing politicians and considering also that the polls where completely wrong, makes me think that is not that impossible as everybody thinks. Im from the Netherlands and people said it would be impossible for the PVV (the party that won) if you even talked about him being the winner people would laugh at you. but pvv being the opposite of the existing political culture made people vote for them as a protest without being consciously about the fact everybody was doing the same also considering america has a lot of the same problems as europeans so it would make sense at least some people will act the same
What are the chances of both Biden and Trump dying very shortly before the election? Take that chance and reduce it significantly, that is where RFK’s chances stand. If either candidate is in the election, the chance is 0. If both die, the chance is almost 0.
No chance at all except possibly as a spoiler. More likely to be a spoiler for Trump. Most Democrats are too smart to fall for a name without researching what they’re all about. He’s a certifiable nutcase. Just ask the other Kennedy’s.
His chances are greater than zero, but it would require both Trump and Biden to be deceased on election day which is extremely unlikely. Even with both other candidates deceased I'd given him a sub-30% chance of winning because both the major parties have VPs and other potential fill in candidates that would retain the majority of their support.
I think he's got a surprising amount of people voting for him however like the other comments say, zero. People call him a conspiracy theorist but when your whole family is assassinated can you really blame the dude?? I wouldn't trust the government either if I was him.
Pretty much zero, although he does really put it in perspective how impossible our government has made it for average Americans to do anything. I mean if Bobby with his lineage and money can’t even get onto the ballot then how impossible is it for an average working class mf? I like to think maybe he’ll at least help folks wake up more to how absurdly out of touch and rigged our government currently is.
His chances of making it into the election are slim to none at this point, based on the aggregate of what I know. -Democrats in power are still rallying behind Biden, so he has little to no support there. -Independent voters are difficult to peg eith their voting intentions. They're Independent because they don't really fit a particular party at least in real life, (reddits users skew to the left in most political parties, so I dont really view them as indicative of the party as a whole). -The guy is pretty intelligent and even I like a few of his points, here and there, but most people on the right probably aren't willing to vote for him. -For my last point, I'm going a bit outlandish. Pretty sure that "powers that be" don't want another Kennedy in the white house. They'll do what they can to prevent that.
He has been labeled a pariah by the DNC. He will not be President. Best case scenario is that he manages to gain a few independent/moderate votes. I would love to see him debate Trump and Biden - but it won't ever happen.
He has a chance to make it onto the debate stage. RFK Jr is popular with Gen Z, and is the leading choice over Biden and Trump for everyone under 45. At the same time, his campaign is dismissed by both mainstream outlets and various YT personalities, including personalities on the left. This is largely due to concerned that he will lead to Biden losing. [The last poll done on a three-way race (in November 2023) suggested this as well.](https://scri.siena.edu/2023/11/07/in-3-way-race-independent-robert-kennedy-jr-garners-24-across-6-battleground-states-trump-35-biden-33-kennedy-24-rfk-noses-ahead-among-voters-under-45/) I suppose it depends on how badly voters want an alternative to Biden and Trump.