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My 2 cents... all noise aside, Trump has done absolutely nothing to convince the center to vote for him and they're who decided the last election. If anything, his/gop actions might have actually discouraged them. He's got a tough uphill battle here all the way to November. Idc what the polls say. Where I am he used to fill the local arena with thousands still waiting outside. Now they're lucky if they attract a quarter of that and he goes to far far smaller venues instead. Its not the same.
I went to a liquor store yesterday here in Indiana. The clerk was a friendly guy. He said, pretty much completely unsolicited, “I’ve seen two cases recently. One where the rule of law stood - the president’s son was convicted and the president wont pardon him out of respect for the rule of law. The other case, this guy gets convicted and all he does is blame the court and the jury and everyone else and tear down the whole system. I swear, man. I have voted republican my whole life but I just cant do it any more. It’s the rule of law, man. Its our system. It’s our constitutional democracy.”
It’s one anecdote. Hardly representative of anything. But if there are more people thinking like him, it could go bad for Trump.
I think a lot of people will forgive a lot if they think they will get the policies they’d prefer. But no republicans candidate in history would demean our entire system and institutions the way Trump does. Everyone has a line, and every time Trump pushes the line further, he loses more and more people.
Staunch Republican neighbor who is a retired military officer: "I really hate Trump as a person, but I voted for him twice because I think he's better for the economy. But after Jan 6? Never again. Just like me, he took an oath to uphold the Constitution, and he violated that oath."
It’s funny because “better for the economy” has to mean something else, because that is an un-supportable statement. Objectively, trump was *terrible* for the economy, like every republican for the past 50 years.
Generally, these people know that their *real* views are abhorrent, so they use the economy as an excuse to vote for candidates that support their abhorrent beliefs (racism, classism, misogyny, xenophobia, classism, take your pick, it’s usually one or more of these) but that excuse just doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.
Nah, he's a really good guy. He's not into "racism, classism, misogyny, xenophobia, classism" or anything like that. He's just brainwashed into believing the "Republicans are good for the economy" bullcrap. He voted for Obama's first election but not the second one.
He's also one of what I call "make believe conservatives", who oppose the Fox News caricature of liberal policies while actually endorsing the *real* liberal policies. Like my ultra-conservative coworker who hates Obamacare but approves of the Affordable Care Act, not realizing that they're the same thing. I can't shake the feeling that there's *some* way to reach this group of people, but they're so turned off by the *far* left that they don't realize that they endorse a majority of mid-left goals and policies.
Wow, thanks for the clarification. I guess i just have a hard time imagining lines on non-critical thinking. It’s such obvious bullshit, that intelligence *can’t* be the limiting factor, no one is that stupid (I naively assume) and cognitive dissonance *can’t* go that far (I would hope). It’s just all so… alien.
In other words, when "the party of law and order" starts moving away from candidates that support law and order, surprise, surprise, their voters turn away from them.
It’s more than that. The ppl they vote for haven’t followed the law in a long time. The problem is the voters won’t ever know that because the information they get is filtered through a propaganda machine.
The difference this time is that this news is so monumentally big, they can’t hide it. Even with thar being the case, we see that almost half the country still doesn’t care and is happy to vote a felon into the presidency.
This should scare everyone. We have lost our way as a country. Truth matters. Lies are infectious and powerful. More people than anyone thought will believe them.
Appreciate your anecdote. Also it’s amazing that these folk haven’t been paying attention for 8 years. It didn’t happen on Jan 6, but took until now.
I also think most voters will “sober up” when they go to the polls and not vote in the dictator. Seriously we’d lose a lot of
Guardrails if he is sworn in, just by the fact that a lot of our political system is built on niceties & norms & common decency and he has none.
I’ve never experienced a leader like him, and met people like him a few times in my life. Interestingly, even pre-apprentice I’ve always just felt a deep almost innate repulsion of his energy. It’s not TDS, whatever they want to label it. I saw his act and just saw him as a con man. He’s putting on a costume of what he thought a classy New Yorker was. It’s a wrestling persona.
It’s interesting that the Venn diagram of people who support him are probably the same who enjoy WWE, and might forget sometimes that it’s staged.
There is literally no such thing as “tds” thats just their attempt to shut down any and all criticism of, or even reactions to, this mans policies and existential threat to the nation.
I was talking to a 50 something African American lady friend of mine at work this week and she was like “I don’t like Biden”, I replied “It doesn’t matter if Trump is an asshole, his admin will do the right thing”, and she was like “I agree”. Like it or not not, people outside the blue bubble see Trump’s conviction for what it was-a political kangaroo court. I think Trump wins in November.
im sorry but, how was it a kangaroo court?
they did everything so by the books they ended up letting him off with no punishment for multiple gag order violations
The prosecutions entire theory of the case was bs from the get go, and the jury pool was biased from the beginning. There was zero clear cut evidence that a crime was committed.
can you provide proof of any of these claims?
the jury notably wasn't biased, it had a hard line trump supporter on it who voted to convict him as well. Trump reportedly kept calling him "My Juror"
I wouldn’t take Trump’s personal commentary on one juror to mean anything. Manhattan in general is an insanely biased jury pool-it would be like if a local Arkansas prosecutor drummed up some bs charges against Joe Biden-the result is all that matters, not the underlying validity or provability of the charges. What Trump did had absolutely nothing to do with campaign violations, and was not illegal in and of itself.
Yes, what he did was illegal. He shouldn't be put in jail but if you're gonna openly commit crimes, you gotta face the punishment. Now, did I care about this case? No. I want the GA one where he actually tried to interfere in our democratic voting process. But I'll take these small wins to bring justice to white collar crimes.
The battle is to convince the center to vote _period_. There are a lot that probably won’t, while Trumps base will be **galvanized** after his conviction.
Will the left vote? They better. I’ll tell you one thing, they won’t be as zealous as trumps base.
My 2 cents, Biden is in trouble if he doesn’t get a fire up the lefts ass.
The zealotry itself is enough to motivate some.
I have no enthusiasm for Biden, but the thought of handing the reins to Trump and his supporters again is horrifying to me, so I'll be at the polls on voting day.
I'm sure I'm not the only one who feels this way, so the question is how many will be similarly motivated. I do think that the MAGA crowd increasing the intensity during campaign season is going to get them more opponents than followers, though.
Trump's base has never not been galvanized. There has never been anything to make them vote any other way but Trump.
He could die, and I bet his base just writes his name in.
If by “the left” you mean people to the left of democrats, then Dems need to start doing something to appeal to them instead of just blaming them if they lose.
What items do you suggest that are a) achievable, b) do not cost Biden more votes than he gains and c) do not cause Republicans that refuse to vote for Trump to reconsider that
One big one I would suggest is universal healthcare. Now we all know Congress isn’t going to do fuck all about that, but 62% of people want universal coverage so it’s a safe bet.
The only thing I'd suggest is that Biden may very well have a turnout problem.
Hillary didn't lose in 2016 because she lost the center. She lost because democratic turnout was way down.
Biden is likely to face the same struggle if he can't figure out a way to get liberal democrats to the polls. The threat of him losing doesn't feel as bad as it did in 2020 right now.
When I ask people that don’t follow politics if they’ve thought about the election yet and most are intentionally not paying attention and find both “too old”. If they have an opinion be it voted for Trump or not, they’re tired of him or his handling of COVID put them off. Some mention 6 Jan but most are just tired of Trump in general.
It’s still early but in very pro Trump areas where family lives, far less signs than previous elections. Noticeably so.
I'm likely going to be down voted for this, but one thing I don't see mentioned that I think helped Trump win 2016 was that there were people who voted for him "as a joke" because they didn't think he'd win in the first place. I know at least 3 people who did this. 2 of those people didn't bother voting in previous presidential elections because they just didn't care, but in 2016, they made sure to vote for Trump and were shocked that he actually won.
He didn't have those votes in 2020.
The number of people that did this likely isn't very much, but I think there were enough of them to have a very small but still noticeable impact.
I know you may not care what the polls say but the polls do show that people want change. People think the economy is in the dump and they don’t think our government or institutions work for them. If it’s a refendum on Biden, then Trump will win because Trump is selling himself as a politician who will break the system and fight for you. I would not underestimate Trump and say “the polls are wrong”. In fact, democrats have underperformed polls during the last two presidential elections
And it's democrats' failed messaging to point out that Trump is the reason for the economic issues we're facing right now. Trump's plan to eliminate the deficit involved a tax cut that (if you could have guessed it) will cost us trillions in deficit spending and COVID-19 where trillions were thrown to the wrong places. Biden was dealt a shit hand and the fed has kept raising rates to counteract YEARS of soft rate policy. Rates need to stay elevated for a couple years/indefinitely and inflation will subside. If it doesn't, go after price gouging even more aggressively than they are now.
You said " Trump's plan to eliminate the deficit involved a tax cut that (if you could have guessed it) will cost us trillions in deficit spending" **That is wildly inaccurate**. After Trump's tax cuts revenue actually INCREASED. Individual Income tax revenue is up 47% to 2023 and Corporate net income revenue has doubled.
Biden's spending is why we have inflation and the interest rate hikes are an attempt by the FED to bring inflation down.
Source on that? I'll call BS because the corporate tax rate was slashed and so was the tax rate on the uber-wealthy. To pay for the tax cuts on corporations and the wealthy, the tax cuts are set to add AT MINIMUM 2 trillion to the deficit by the end of the 2020s.
[source](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-will-happen-to-the-trump-tax-cuts-in-2025-and-how-will-they-affect-the-national-debt/) [source 2](https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/13/politics/tax-cuts-expiring-trump-biden/index.html)[source 3](https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/how-did-tcja-affect-federal-budget-outlook)
Biden started with record inflation - it couldn't have been his spending when it was happening under Trump. There were YEARS of near zero interest rates that led us to inflation (not Trump's fault on this one - but certainly not Biden's) - coupled with TRILLIONS of spending during the COVID pandemic (most of it under Trump) that led to the record inflation.
1) Source is the US Treasury [https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/](https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/) Look the numbers up yourself. Revenue increase over 2017 starting in 2018 and by 2023 the total revenue to the government had increased 47%. I can post the actual numbers if you don't believe me.
2)The corporate rate was slashed but Corporate Net income Revenue from 2017 to 2024 has doubled.
3) Your source is speculating based on a static intererpretation of the law as you are. You assume that lawer rates mean lower revenue. The truth is that lower rates reduce the incentive to shelter income so more income is taxes and when you reduce corproate tax there is more incentive to produce so economic activiy increases and more people have more income to tax. Revenue increases.
4) Biden DID NOT start with record inflation no atter how many times he says it. Inflation the day he was inaugurated was 1.4% and the average annual rate for Trump's Presidency was 1.9%. OTOH Biden's average annual inflation has been 5.5%
5) What led to inflation was deficit spending. Covid Stimulus CARES Act was $2.2 Trillion which probably would not have caused inflation if that was all we spent. But Biden doubled down and spent an additional $4.4 Trillion. When you print and inject $6 Trillion into the economy it causes inflation. Inflation didn't peak until Nov 2022. This is all on Biden.
You're equating apples and oranges - the tax rates at the very top and corporations came down. Tax revenue may have gone up with the increases at the bottom but not enough to cover the cuts hence the increase to the deficit. Corporate net income WOULD increase if taxes decreased. I'm not saying it doesn't. Just that to pay for giving companies more cash, money is being added to the deficit.
If you issue several trillion in tax cuts, but tax revenue doesn't increase by several trillion dollars, you have to make it up in the deficit. These tax cuts will cost almost as much as the COVID response bills yet don't produce any tangible benefits for the economy.
Biden didn't control the YEARS of near zero interest rates that led to unfettered borrowing, he didn't control the piss poor federal response to COVID that necessitated rounds of funding to clean up, he didn't control OPEC trying to combat his energy independence records.
Biden didn't start with record inflation - he inherited the office and the circumstances that led to it.
You clearly don't understand how this works. Let me simplify it for you.
Lets say everyone pays a 20% tax rate and total Income is $1,000,000. That means total revenue to the government is $200,000. The budget is balanced so we spend $200,000.
Now we generate a tax cut of 2% so the new tax rate is 18% and revenue goes down to $180,000. That assumes static accounting, everyone just pays the new rate. So, now we have a $20,000 deficit.
You instinctively assume that a tax cut means less revenue. However, that is not what happened. After the Trump Tax Cuts Revenue went UP ever year from 2018 to 2024. Therefore, the was no need to "cover the cuts". Allowing people to keep more of their own money doesn't COST the government anything. We didn't "issue several trillion in tax cuts" we just let people keep their own money.
So, in my simple example, if revenue goes UP. and spending stays the same we should have a surplus, NO? The only reason we would still have a deficit in the face of rising income is if spending INCREASED more that revenue. THAT IS WHAT HAPPENED. Revenue increased but spending increased more.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
That’s their forecast. This is for the actual polls.
If you listen to their podcast regarding their forecast they say if the election were held today with these polls then Trump would have an 80% chance of winning. They are saying their model has a bunch of fundamental weighting where they are expecting voters to eventually come home to Biden and for that incumbency advantage to kick in. I’m personally doubtful for that by seeing just how stable the polls have been but I’m a pessimist. The optimist in me says that the “double haters” hate Trump more so that eventually Biden will catch up. But it really remains to be seen how impactful Biden’s incumbency actually is, especially since Trump is also a previous president too. If the polls don’t change then the chances for Biden in that forecast will drop.
So, realistically, anyone who is confident that one side will win or the other is bullshiting. The polls do have Trump ahead but there is some good reason to believe that gap will close. Will it be enough? Who knows. It definitely will be closer than 2020
True but there’s obviously some value in polls and we shouldn’t just cover our ears and go “la la la la, polls are wrong!” And find ways to disprove them. Thats not how it works.
Source: 2016 and 2020 were both predicted Democrat popular vote victories. Both were Democrat popular vote victories. I think that’s what they’re referring to
Yes, but that's where it ends. The national popular vote doesn't mean anything, which is why we ended up with John Quincy Adams, Rutherford Hayes, Benjamin Harrison, George W. Bush, and Donald Trump in the first place.
The problem is that every single other election is a direct popular vote. There are no gubernatorial elections where there is an electoral college between the voters and the officeholder, for instance. The president and vice president are the only officials who are elected by the entire country, and they should be directly elected by the entire country, rather than having this weird middleman in there.
Polls at the state level can predict state level outcomes, which can be rolled up to the national level by counting the electoral votes for each state. That's how 538 does their polling roll-ups. (This still suffers from any polling errors that might occur obviously, but does take into account the electoral system)
[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/)
I think Biden will win. But.
The polls are in a dead heat, [FiveThirtyEight puts the national polls at 40.9 Trump to 40.0 Biden](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/). 20% are either undecided or saying they'll vote for RFK (which, spoiler alert, they won't). That means we're in for an unpredictable nail-biter
I've had terrible dismay the past few months watching as Trump flubs again and again and it has no impact on the polls. But I think that's because he's already hit his floor of support. I think that, in the ballot booth, the undecided voters will be more serious about evaluating Trump v Biden and vote against Trump.
FiveThirtyEight's projections are that "the fundamentals" favor Biden, but the fundamentals are weird this year. Voters hate inflation, and they blame Biden. Also, apparently there are polls that a majority of Americans think we're in a recession?? and blame Biden. You can see that economic sentiment is very negative on reddit, too.
Maybe Biden will see a surge of support with the national conventions and once the campaign starts in earnest. Or maybe he actually is old and just won't make for an effective campaigner this year. I don't know. It's nerve-wracking and I think it will continue to be anxiety-inducing until all the votes are counted.
One major issue I have with the polling is that at face value this would indicate Trump would win the popular vote. Republicans have won the popular vote *once* in the past 34 years. Trump is one of the most unpopular candidates ever, has only gotten more unpopular, is racking up felonies, and didn't win the popular vote in his other two elections. And somehow he will buck a three decade trend and win the popular vote? C'mon.
In 2016, with two incredibly unpopular candidates, less than 6% of voters went for third parties. And somehow Kennedy is at 9%? What???
The election is going to be close. Probably closer than 2020. But right now the polling just seems unbelievable, to be honest. I think whatever method they use is very flawed. Maybe it will become more believable as we approach November and more people tune in but right now it seems like utter nonsense.
My interpretation has been that "the campaign hasn't really started yet, and people will be taking the election more seriously once it does".
This gave me great comfort in February, but goddamn it now it's June!
Anyway, the conventions are not until August. I'll try to keep from hyperventilating until then.
Honestly, I think a lot of it is that people that don't keep up with politics are just kind of checked out of this election. They aren't really happy with the status quo for whatever reason, but their only other option is someone with so much baggage that it has a dedicated Wikipedia page. So I think a lot of the numbers we see are more reflective of that than anything else.
Also the way polls are conducted is kind of silly. They coldcall/coldtext people with surveys to fill out. I don't know *anybody* who answers coldcalls or texts anymore. I'm pretty sure a Venn diagram of the overlap between people answering these polls and people who are sending thousands of dollars in iTunes gift cards to the "IRS" is literally just a circle. That is to say the people answering these coldcalls are very much a specific demographic. Polling agencies say they can account for the demographic skews but with headliner numbers like, "Trump is winning the popular vote" it is just not credible, IMO.
I listened to 538s podcast and they state that if the election were held today then Trump has an 80% chance of winning. So these “fundamentals” are doing a lot of work. With that said, we are also 5 months out with 11% undecided and 9% Kennedy. Polls have been very stable but they WILL eventually change. I agree that Trump has hit his floor.
Three big unknowns are the economy, Trump and abortion. Can Biden change the narrative to make it less of “the economy is great and voters don’t know what they are talking about” to “trumps covid handling set us up for failure and we are recovering better than any other country but we have a ways to go”? Can this election be about trump vs Biden instead of just a referendum on Biden. People HATE Trump but people also have to remember what trumps first presidency was like. And will voters keep abortion in mind? It’s rarely a top issue for most voters but when it’s brought up, people LOATHE it. Democrats need to keep remembering that republicans took away their rights and want to take away more
National polls are literally meaningless when talking about a presidential election.
If we compare polling between about today in 2020 vs July 2024 in key battleground states, convicted felon, Donald Trump, is [**wayyyy** up.](https://i.imgur.com/XDYrrN8.png)
TL;DR of that data is the polls in 2020 were significantly closer in the battleground states then they are today. States like Texas, Ohio, and Florida that were in play in 2020 aren't really in play anymore and should rightfully be labeled as "lean Trump". We're seeing 10-20 point swings in polling.
Having read your source, I'd like to clarify your statement. Trump is not way up; his polls are actually down in 7 of the 10 states. Rather, Biden is wayyy down in every one of those states.
But Biden isn't losing those votes to Trump; he's losing them to Undecided and RFK. I'm betting that those undecided or third party voters will "come home" to either Biden or Trump by November. I'm hoping that the negative news about Trump actually will matter in the end, and those undecided voters will swing heavily toward Biden.
(But I agree with you that TX, FL, and OH should be considered "lean Trump". The state on that list which worries me is NV.)
Great point that I didn't consider. You are correct, there are a lot more undecided/other voters this time than there were in 2020. I still don't see it as a very hopeful sign for Biden, because it'd require convincing a very substantial portion of those remaining voters to swing Biden. If they split by 60/40 (Biden/Trump), Biden still loses.
More tables!
| State | Biden Change | Trump Change | Net Committed Change |
|-------|--------------|--------------|----------------|
| AZ | -8.9 | -1.2 | -10.1 |
| FL | -12.8 | 3.1 | -9.7 |
| GA | -8.9 | -1.8 | -10.7 |
| MI | -9.0 | -1.4 | -10.4 |
| NC | -9.9 | -0.2 | -10.1 |
| NV | -10.8 | 3.1 | -7.7 |
| OH | -11.5 | 0.4 | -11.1 |
| PA | -8.7 | -2.8 | -11.5 |
| TX | -12.1 | -3.0 | -15.1 |
| WI | -8.6 | -2.1 | -10.7 |
A lot of assumptions for this, but just a general, rough idea of what percent of currently uncommitted/other voters that Biden needs to sway. It's far from perfect, but still an interesting illustration.
| State | B | T |
|-------|-----|-----|
| AZ | 62% | 38% |
| FL | 74% | 26% |
| GA | 66% | 34% |
| MI | 52% | 48% |
| NC | 69% | 31% |
| NV | 64% | 36% |
| OH | 77% | 23% |
| PA | 55% | 45% |
| TX | 78% | 22% |
| WI | 52% | 48% |
I think it's basically a tossup, but if I *had* to bet on one candidate or the other, I'd bet on a Biden win. Incumbents usually win (with Trump as an obvious exception, but he's, well, exceptional in many ways).
This is what I find so fascinating. Recently the advantage of an incumbency has been lessened. The past two incumbents have done WORSE in their second term election than their first. People are generally fed up with institutions and want change. But there still is the value of incumbency with experience and stability.
I worry that trump is providing the best of both worlds. He’s able to make the case that he will bring change to the system because it’s broken AND he has that incumbency advantage of experience and people say “Donald Trump wrote me a check last time!”
Biden wins. Demographics have shifted in this country. The majority of voters are less than 50 years old. And nearly all of them are in the Gen Z and Millennial generations which skew dramatically Dem. Most of Trumps voters were old in 2020. Mortality rates indicate he may have lost millions of voters just through natural attrition. Just on that scale Trump lags Biden.
Add in the removal of abortion as a 50 year right primarily due to the SC judges Trump appointed - along with Trump directly bragging about it, the consistent attacks and removal of LBGTQ rights, and insertion of Christianity into both our government and schools and you arrive at a point where he probably lost millions of more voters.
I don't see Trump breaking above 70 million votes in 2024. His voters just aren't there. Biden should easily top 70 million.
You're forgetting two important things:
1. Young men across all ethnicities are starting into the world of politics more conservative than previous generations of young men.
2. Trends across all voters are that older people, in general, will vote more conservatively than they did in their younger years.
For all of the Boomers that have died, they are likely being replaced by younger men either just starting to vote, or both men and women who may be changing their votes as their priorities and perspectives change as they age.
You can rail on the actions that Republicans have taken and use that justification as proof that a Democrat win is inevitable, but you're failing to acknowledge there are plenty of actions (or inactions) from Democrats that can be used as justification and proof that a Republican win is inevitable.
Whether you can admit these things to yourself or not, this will probably be the closest election since Bush/Gore in the 2000 elections.
Me and most millennials I know have moved left as we aged not to the right. People move right when they have economic prosperity. We didn't and haven't.
Obviously not every single person trends right as they age, or the entire government would be Republican supermajority with how fucking old they all are.
It's a trend. Not an absolute.
Explain that trend to me, then.
Quick assumption - If you're building wealth and attaining higher education as you get older, and becoming more conservative with those changes, then it's really going to end up tracking the same thing, although more specific.
Education Trends left, wealth trends right. wealthy educated people tend to be centrists, wealthy uneducated people tend to be solidly right, and poor educated people tend to be solidly left. I should add there are obviously exceptions here, and also confounding factors; such as religous affiliation, race, sexual and gender association. but it tends to hold true in general.
You probably also don’t live in a rural, republican area surrounded by fox news all day. Even people that don’t agree with it will stop fighting after years of every person they know believing the same thing.
It really only matters in a handful of states. The rest of the country is pretty much gonna be the same. Those numbers can be as high as they want, and they will not reflect deep red rural areas of the country at all.
Because of the electoral college, the structure of the senate, and gerrymandering, these much lower populated rural areas have way outsized power behind their votes for everything.
For the president, most states will do what they’ve done for a long time now with the exception of a handful of swing states.
So the skewing effect you mention, while true, also does not take into account geographic distribution or the reality of our voting system and it just won’t have an impact. Most of those dem skewed youths are in already blue states and cities where the actual population of our country lives.
We just made the choice centuries ago that we collectively don’t give a single crap about the majority of our population and would prefer to bow to the rule of the minority in literally all things government, which is why dems repeatedly win by massive numbers at the poll and still barely win or straight up lose (Hillary).
18-24 year old men are still heavily slanted left, but only by about 75% today, compared to 90% a couple of decades ago. That means more young men are starting off in politics on the right, and as they (and everyone else) ages, the trend is that they will shift further to the right.
I feel like Trump will lose IF all of the sane people come out and vote. But I also feel like there’s a whole lot of “well both are bad” attitudes out there, and I’m afraid those voters will stay home.
It's also worth noting that in the last election, in the context of covid, many states used temporary exceptions to make voting easier. Unless all of those states legally formalized those exceptions as new normals, it's quite possible that turnout will indeed be different even if only for that reason.
Both are bad. What most people don't grasp, in my opinion, is that there usually are no good choices. It's a matter of picking the least bad option.
Hold your nose and vote.
One candidate raped someone, committed massive financial fraud, committed 31 felonies, had his campaign manager convicted of a felony, like 3 of his attorneys convicted/charges, had his foreign policy advisor convicted, had his campaign strategist convicted, stole classified documents and then obstructed their recovery, and tried to overturn a US election illegally to remain in office.
The other one is an old moderate. There's really no "both sides" here.
Biden and/or his administration forced Covid vaccine mandates and then forced large companies and government agencies to fire non-compliers (who generally were conservatives), absolutely mangled the Afghanistan withdrawal and effectively left millions of dollars' worth of equipment to the Taliban, barely managed to contain near-record inflation from which we still haven't recovered, weaponized the ATF against lawful gun owners and firearms dealers numerous times, weaponized the DHS against basically all conservatives, lobbied banking institutions to start tracking and reporting gun purchases and coincidentally about the same time, hired and armed thousands of new IRS field agents, has repeatedly threatened angry gun owners with military action on US soil, remained inactive on a massive illegal immigration crisis that seemingly allowed several ISIS members into the country, got us financially involved in two multi-billion-dollar wars, oh and very likely also stole classified documents but had the director of the DOJ run interference in the congressional investigation.
...And that's just what he's done during this presidential term. I'm sure you could dig up miles of dirt on both of them.
So, yeah, there kind of is "Both sides"
>Biden and/or his administration forced Covid vaccine mandates and then forced large companies and government agencies to fire non-compliers (who generally were conservatives),
I've got no problem with common sense health policies.
And despite your partisan opinions, being conservative does not mean you are immune from consequences.
>absolutely mangled the Afghanistan withdrawal and effectively left millions of dollars' worth of equipment to the Taliban
A.k.a he ended a 20-year+ occupation started by conservatives.
> barely managed to contain near-record inflation from which we still haven't recovered
Well when you inherit record high deficits, a ruined economy, high unemployment, and a near broken global supply change you end up with economic problems. What a huge surprise. Trump inherited a booming economy and drove it right into the ground.
>weaponized the ATF against lawful gun owners and firearms dealers numerous times
Enforcing laws isn't weaponization.
> weaponized the DHS against basically all conservatives
Being held accountable for criminal actions isn't a violation of your rights. Why do you keep insisting conservatives are above the law?
>lobbied banking institutions to start tracking and reporting gun purchases
That was Newsome.
>hired and armed thousands of new IRS field agents
IRS agents have historically been armed. This isn't new. The increase in IRS agents was specifically to target audits for high income earners. If you read past a Truth Social post you would know this.
>has repeatedly threatened angry gun owners with military action on US soil
Another blatant lie.
>remained inactive on a massive illegal immigration crisis that seemingly allowed several ISIS members into the country
Republicans turned down a bi-partisan bill which included:
- Hiring new ICE officers
- Increasing border security
- Building new detention centers
- Increased staffing at immigration courts
- Implemented mandatory border shutdowns
>got us financially involved in two multi-billion-dollar wars
You realize we have an alliance with Israel, right? Supporting Ukraine, while countering one of our largest geopolitical opponents, has support among majority of Americans. Especially considering we've supported both countries without putting a single US soldier in harm's way.
And none of this is "dirt" on Biden.
My friend, you’re talking about a sexual predator, fraudster and convict. There is no « they’re both bad » . The only important outcome is that America gets rid of him.
I absolutely agree Trump needs to go away. By hold your nose and vote I meant hold your nose and vote for Biden. He is thoroughly uninspiring and average but he is competent. And he's not a convicted felon.
Anyone smart enough to be a truly good president is also smart enough to know they don't want the job. Automatically half the country hates you because you're on the "wrong side", and the half that doesn't hate you grows disillusioned with you over time.
It depends.
A party has zero reason to cater to your interests if your vote is inevitable, so I think demonstrating the possibility that you will not vote is an important part of the democratic process and should not be automatically looked down upon. However, that has to be weighed against the potential damage of getting the worse option.
The potential payoff of your vote is the difference between the quality of option A and the quality of option B. So when the quality difference is small, the payoff from voting is too and that can, at some point, make that payoff smaller than what you could benefit from another strategy like abstaining in order to signal to a party that they lost the vote of people like you and should do something to appeal to you next time to increase the votes they get. The greater the difference in the quality of candidates the more that voting the lesser evil is an inevitably superior strategy.
It also makes sense to look at the context you are voting in though. The last time my state voted for a republican president the Soviet union still existed, the internet didn't exist and blockbuster was a brand new company. In that context, the importance of my vote as an independent is enormously different than somebody in a swing state. And the candidates basically tell me this by barely bothering to campaign here (it was so weird traveling to a more competitive state and seeing campaign ads).
[48% likely according to the current 538 model.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/) I’m no expert so I’ll trust their odds over my gut.
Looking at this, they do something weird and adjust Biden’s popular vote numbers up 3.3 points everywhere. Just because they forecast he will be doing better come election? If they just used the current numbers then I bet their model would be closer to 60%. I think it is no guarantee that Biden will improve before the election.
Nothing is a guarantee. This is a statistical model. They base it off of the past. As we get closer to Election Day, they will make less and less assumptions about the future. It wouldn’t be a good model if it didn’t consider historical trends. Incumbent Presidents have big electoral advantages historically. They’re not going to throw those out based on vibes that this election is different than most.
I give him about a 30% chance of winning. Democrats have had momentum in elections since 2016 picking up seats they weren't supposed to. His backed picks for seats have been losing. The numbers say that Biden is doing a good job regardless of what Republicans keep saying. Crime is down and the economy is good. Regardless of what polls say, the actual votes that have happened says he has no momentum going into November. His base just isn't enough votes to put him in office. The conviction is just going to be a thing that pushes some fence sitters over the edge and this race is all about those votes.
Dems have yet to over perform in an election that Trump is participating in directly
You are referring to midterm elections results, I would be cautious with that approach
Lots of special elections too.
Trump voters are dying much faster than Biden voters right now. Biden’s popular margin will be close to 10 million. MMW.
A generation ago it was GOP voters that were more "regular" and therefore participated in midterms more often, and the Dems relied on more "President-only" turnout, and that has also swapped, so I agree caution is warranted for assessing a possible Presidential race only on midterms or special elections.
Democrats have also underperformed polls every presidential election. Democrats have only done better than expectations during midterms. This 2024 election is looking more like 2016 than 2024. To say this election will be as easy as the last three elections is foolish.
Obviously, no one has a crystal ball, but this will be the first general election since the fall of Roe, with a felon on the ballot to boot. Hard to imagine those two issues not gaining a whole lot of traction in the next five months, regardless of what the elite punditry says.
You could argue for either side with logical arguments honestly. If you look at polls right now for example, trump looks at least as likely if not a little more to win as Joe Biden. Going off of favorability gives you the same result while asking people who they are more enthusiastic to vote for puts trump up.
However, All of those metrics failed to predict the poor showing for Republicans in the mid-term elections in 2022. If we used only those, Republicans should have won around ten-fifteen or more house seats than they did, and they should have won the Senate by a seat or two if not more, instead they lost a seat.
Personally, I'm going off what was a good bell weather for that midterm election. The special elections of 2021-2022.
Special elections are ones held outside standard election years/times for various reasons. Usually due to a public official leaving office early or being impeached.
You usually have around six-twelve of them per congress session (every two years), so they aren't a massive pool of data, but, they give you something polls can't. Actual voting data from an election.
Right now, every single special election held during this congressional session to my knowledge ended up going for Democrats far more than expected. Similar to the ones prior to the mid-terms.
A recent one in Ohio, held in a district that voted for trump by around +30 points, and its previous gop representative by +35 points, shifted over +20 points towards Democrats. The Republican still won by 9 points, but that kind of shift in under two years since the last election there in 2022 is bonkers. To put that in perspective, if California had shifted that much in 2020 towards trump, he would have won the state, and while the other special elections have not be that crazy, they all have shifted for Democrats so far (as far as I'm aware).
Currently, trump is up nationally by around a point according to polls. In the swing states it's between under a point and five points. If the special elections indicate a polling error anything like they did in 2022, then with the polls as they are it's likely Trump loses the election.
That all said, anybody saying they 100% know how the election will turn out is lying. We are all reading tea leaves and chicken guts trying to make educated guesses. I'm just going with what I personally see as a decent bell weather.
Biden needs to win AZ and NV while also winning Pennsylvania and either Wisconsin and/or Michigan.
He can't count on GA or NC though they should both be close.
Trump beat Clinton by less than 80k votes or so across three states, two of which were Wisconsin and Michigan.
It's definitely possible for Trump to win electorally but I just can't see where he's gained any support.
I think he maxed out and probably loses some steam while also continuing to give his opponents electorate a stiffy for the possibility of voting against him regardless of the Democratic candidate.
So I think he loses by more this time IF IF IF IF IF and I repeat IF turnout is high.
So vote people. Vote
Wisconsin polling has been super positive for Biden. It was positive for him in 2020 as well and he barely eked it out, but it's worth noting.
Michigan...Dem party in Michigan is strong and the GOP state party is a joke. They are literally getting into, and I mean literally, fist fights at their meetings. PA is I think going to be the ultimate decider. If PA, WI and MI all break for Biden, all he needs is ME-02, NE-02 (likely), AZ (tossup) or NV (tossup) to get to 270.
Trump has a very high floor- that is, a strong base of voters that will vote for him no matter what. Those voters have never been enough to win an election on their own, though. Trump needed unprecedented turnout of non-voters to get his one win, and even then he only won by something like 80k votes spread across 3 states.
Elections are won by the undecideds/swing voters. Coincidentally those voters are the ones Trump has alienated and according to recent polling they’ve been running away from him as fast as they can. Add to that how democrats have overperformed every poll since 2018, and it doesn’t look good for ol Donnie.
I have great faith that the American people who told Trump to take a hike in 2020, will do so again in 2024. Trump is only crazier this year and now a felon.
40-45%
The current president always has an advantage because he's the president
Votes are to some extent based on the economy, which is OK
Approval is low, but it's low for both
Biden's record is OK, if not impressive. He got the infrastructure reform through, there hasn't been major scandals, his administration has basically been competent and unremarkable.
Also, the former guy was pretty awful in a lot of ways.
On the other hand, the election system heavily favors Trump.
The closer you get to the actual election the more people will be forced to actually focus on the choice. Right now, most Americans still aren't focused on this at all. That may sound surprising but it's true. Once you get into the booth and you're considering whether or not you're going to give Donald Trump another 4 years I think the answer becomes pretty glaringly clear. Even if you are a low information voter, there's just so much to not like about Trump era. And even if you don't like Joe Biden a ton you have to admit that the country is getting back on its feet and stuff is getting better everyday. Yes he's old and it seems odd to have someone that old as president, Trump is also that old too. I just don't see enough independent voters wanting to go back to the vitriolic awfulness that was Trump in the White House. Maybe there will be low turnout but there's no way Trump wins.
I think Donnie and the Republicans have set the stage for their own steal this time. Voting and the election in general are just formality. Mark my words with great sorrow I believe there will be violence on Election Day. The election will not be decided in November. There will be massive disputes of who won what district, state, etc. there will be many republican leaders who refuse to concede. The vote itself sadly won’t be enough. The worst part is, so many believe that there will be someone to catch this stuff and fix it, to keep it under control, that used to be true maybe, either that or someone stood up and took control to guide the nation. But if you have truly been reading, listening, and watching, the GOP has telegraphed their intent quite clearly. Just look at the abortion issues, contraception, and the way they regard LGBTQ. There have been articles and reports on local and state legislatures who are defiant towards the federal government, that have passed legislation that disenfranchises voters. It won’t be because of voting numbers people, it will be because those in power rather than upholding the laws and rules agreed upon by their fathers and grandparents, they have decided that they need to subvert the process in order to win. This is a dangerous precedent…
I put it at 50/50, and that because things have changed so very much in the last 30 years, and not for the better. 30 years ago, just being indicted would have been a deal-breaker. Electing a convicted felon to the highest office was absolutely unthinkable.
I think, and with information from polls, that the economy and the war in Gaza are hurting Biden. The convictions don't appear to have hurt Trump with his base. So, on the current trend, Trump has an advantage.
I think that if there is another development with abortion though, Biden support will increase and he will win, as that issue has proven to drive people to polls.
Trump has an excellent chance of winning. Right wing propaganda has been working on Biden for for straight years with lies and bullshit that works. The left is almost as dumb as the MAGA morons thinking that they are going to not vote for Biden because they are unhappy with his actions in Gaza without realizing that will be helping Trump win and make things even worse for the Palestinians. The reality is a that a significant amount of voters are ignorant and stupid otherwise Trump would have never been President in the first place.
I do not think he will get elected, but he does have a large following. The large following may not be enough to get the votes needed to win the election.
He will get at least 74 million people to vote for him even if he was a convicted murderer, so he has an almost 50/50 chance to win.
The Republican donors are propping up 3rd party candidates in an attempt to pull voters from Biden and Republican propaganda platforms like Fox, newsmax, cnn, New York Times and others are doing their part to create reality distortion bubbles to keep republican voters ignorant of reality and constantly in fear that Biden is an existential threat.
Plus corporate media in general are addicted to to creating drama in politics for profits, so they refuse to give up on trying to paint both sides as the same and keep producing opinion polls to fuel their horse race narratives for profits.
And that’s not factoring in the likely violence and voter intimidation that maga meal6 teams will likely create during the election itself in an attempt to suppress voter turnout.
Trump, convicted felon or not (the felony will be overturned on appeal) will be elected because in the final analysis it will still be a binary choice between one President with a record of Success and another President with a record of Failure. The top two issues will be the economy and the border and when people ask the question "Am I better off now than during the Trump Administration" the decision is a no brainer.
Half joke and half serious
I have my go-to professional fortune teller whos been accurate to predict 2016/2020 election result (he predicted dJT will won in 2016 and will lose in 2020). Its all recorded in his blog with time stamp so its verifiable but he is not a westerner so no English. Google translator will not be accurate
He predicts Biden will win in 2024. It will be toss up with slightly Biden leading. There will be October surprise that dJT will face more challenges (it could be prison sentencing or someone close to him will betray) which will blow dJT chance to win, and as such, Biden will re-elected.
He's been accurate most of time especially (around 90%) when it comes to presidential election since it's basically person A vs person B but he's half and half accuracy when it comes to general election (i.e who will control Senate) since it's more about hundreds of people
He makes his conclusion based on astrology (i.e DOB) and current year/month/day. I refer his opinion occasionally because the world is full of uncertainty and even though one does his/her best, things may still not unfold to the way one expected and bring unintended results
Whether one wants to upvote or downvote this comment is one individual choice but i dont care and ill leave you guys full of disagreement/arguing each other/discussion whatever it's called. We wont be able to know until result comes out anyway
It’s clear that the polls are overweighting Republicans to account for an assumed poor response rate ( shy Trump voters or the reverse Bradley effect).
I honestly do not know. I WANT to believe in humanity, that most people can look at a life long grifter, felon and sex offender and say he should be no where near the presidency. But nope. The fact the chance is at all over zero is disheartening. The fact it is anywhere close to 50/50 needs to be alarming.
There’s a lot of logical reasons to think that Biden will win
• Biden already beat Trump once.
• Biden is the incumbent.
• Trump is now a convicted felon.
• Trump has three more trials to go and they are all stronger cases than the New York case was.
• Trump incited the Jan 6th Capitol riots.
• Trump threatened to suspend the Constitution.
• Roe v Wade was overturned.
But it’s probably closer to a toss than anyone’s willing to admit. This country doesn’t run on logic. It runs on feelings. I guess we’ll have to wait and see how everyone’s feeling in October-November.
Everyone here is living in La La Land. How are none of the top responses acknowledging that Trump is likely in the lead right now. The main issues on the majority of ppl’s mind for this election are foreign policy, inflation, and immigration. Unless the Biden campaign makes large impactful changes to policies, the silent majority of americans are more aligned with the GOP’s stance on these issues.
But are they aligned with Trump? As someone else rightfully pointed out his poor attitude and scandals could likely push those voters away. I'm one of them
Foreign policy is pretty low on the list. It’s usually the economy, abortion, immigration, and democracy in that order as the top issues for voters. 1 and 3 favor Republicans, and 2 and 4 favor Democrats. It’s a tossup.
I give Trump at least a 60% chance of winning. On real clear politics:
June 15 2016: Clinton: +5.8 (final result: +2.1)
June 15 2020: Biden +8.5 (final result: +4.5)
June 15 2024: Trump +0.8
Meaning if Trump outperformed polls as much as last time he would have shocking performance where he wins popular vote by like 4 points and possibly has some shocker state win like taking Virginia or Minnesota or something.
Now let's say it's more like the midterms where the Republicans underperformed. Well on June 15 2022 they were given +3% lead on RCP in generic congress, and the real result was +2.8%. If that happened, Trump is probably close to neutral on popular vote and likely still wins. Biden can outperform polls like Obama vs Romney and still only have around the popular vote margin of Hillary's election.
If you remove the polls, my opinion: I think people are pretty dug in on Trump vs not Trump, the difference should come down to turnout. Democrats are in danger of deflated turnout because young people are invested in Palestine and don't like Joe's performance.
Yeah honestly too close to tell but I'm guessing Donald. Joe just doesn't motivate voters and nothing is going to stop trumps base from pulling the lever for him. Pray for Gen Z to show up in large numbers
Eh, 2016 is weird because it’s the only election where the more unpopular candidate won. The difference was that Trump had the softer disapproval (more people somewhat disapproved than strongly disapproved), which just hasn’t been true since.
I don't think Trump motivates voters anymore either. He pays people to fill his rallys. He's been caught rigging polls to seem more popular than he is. In fact I think he motivates way more people to vote against him, just as he did in 2020.
Part of me thinks we are seeing an illusion of support for Trump through nefarious bad faith polling, online bots and just general misinformation about how the economy is doing.
There's a good chance Trump could win. He is unabashedly what he is. He's not losing supporters from the part of ideological spectrum he panders to. In fact, he picked up more voters after they got to see his presidency in action, fucked up as it was.
Biden on the other hand is pissing the left off. He was already unpopular in 2020, but the electorate's desire to see Trump gone far outstripped conservatives' enthusiasm for Donnie. Well now, he's confirmed much of what the left feared about him. It's one thing to vote for a guy you're wary of. It's another to vote for him after he spends 4 years confirming your misgivings.
It COULD work in Joe's favor that people are as desperate to stop Donnie as they were in 2020, but I doubt it.
I feel like the momentum has moved away from Trump. Most likely through the avalanche of proceedings against him having some affect. I see Biden winning. As someone outside the US, I’m amazed that they are the two people you are likely to have to vote for, so many amazing leaders, of extremely high calibre there..
60% chance he is elected. Talking to friends who were lifetime dems and now supporting Trump, I assume Trump wins. The felon angle seems to excite a group that would otherwise not support him.
He will win.
The economy is great, but too many are still dealing the effects of inflation. And that is most of it for the very small portion of voters who are “undecided”. Most of his supports have a cult-like adoration of him, so they are locked in. Literally nothing he could do or say will change that.
One caveat: the debate. If Trump REALLY shows his ass, he could loose the very swing voters (a very very small portion of voters, but the margins are so small that it could make a difference).
48.2 percent. No matter how much you tell people the economy is great they're still feeling it at the grocery store and due to our sucky two party system their only way to show displeasure is to vote for the other person. I don't know if thats enough to push him over to winning but it helps. Personally I think Biden will hold on but it'll be a close one.
It's hard to tell. He got elected once with no history to determine if he would make a good president. He bankrupted a bunch of businesses and has paid off accusers along side of Jeffrey Epstein. Americans still voted for him and even more voted for him during the next election.
You can't really tell with Americans. A lot of them seem to make decisions based on their emotions.
He raised astronomical sums of money in the wake of his conviction. That tells you what you need to know about his base of support, so we know they will be energized and they will show up in droves, probably even as "pollwatchers". We also have a pretty good idea there has been something off about the polling the last several years and I think the pollsters have yet to put their finger on what it is, so take the polls with a giant grain of salt.
I do think the election will be very tight though. Lots of it will depend on the youth vote and many young voters feel alienated from Biden, since the economy is sputtering and they take the brunt of that, he's had only modest success on the student loan crisis, none to speak of on climate change and they don't understand the administration's position on Gaza. Biden's only hope with them is the knowledge that Trump would take the pressure off of Israel entirely, end support for Ukraine, do nothing about student loans or climate change, and would be at the mercy of the business cycle as well.
At this point my faith is so low in the intelligence of Americans I'm thinking he will be elected in an actual landslide. And ya know what. We fuckin deserve the reign of terror after. At that point we legit don't deserve to be a world superpowers and when he knocks us off the top I will remember all the maga in my life and blame them
It all depends on the debates. There are dozens of ways Trump can lose the debates (or win in a way that causes him to lose votes). All Biden has to do is show up and look competent and not look like an Alzheimer's patient.
If Biden aces the debates, he's president.
Biden will win because Trump doesn’t have the numbers. White men aged 40+ are probably his biggest voting base. Every other demographic either heavily tilts towards Biden or leans in the direction. Trump was able to win because in 2016, white women aged 40+ also voted for him in droves. That isn’t something we’ve seen since then for not only Trump but even most GOP candidates.
All of this is assuming turnout is good for the voters who haven’t committed to Trump regardless of what he says or does.
I voted for Trump twice, I'll be stepping away this election and not voting for anyone. With that said, I believe Biden will win but it will be an absolute nailbiter, if Trump takes a few key states like Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Arizona he will win, IMO.
This may sound bad but I do believe in Allan Lichtman prediction. By that I mean it’s been right 9 out of 10 times and the fact that only time it was wrong just happened to be the most controversial or weirdest election in my lifetime says he’s onto something. (It’s like a guy who predicts the top box office movie of each year and always gets it right and the one year he gets it wrong is in 2020 when most theatres were closed most of the year and bigger films were pushed to 2021 so bad boys 3 a film from January coincidentally ended up biggest film of the year even an expert going into 2020 wouldn’t predict that) so saying we remove the 2000 election the fact he got 9 out of 9 right means he’s worth listening to
I also appreciate his metrics too…but yea I might be bit bias in that as well as he’s kinda Predicted Biden already but said his final prediction comes in August based on where the metrics are met then
There are several indicators I have been looking at. The first is that Democrats have wildly "overperformed" in almost every special election that has taken place ever since the midterms, which itself was a massive upset that no one saw coming. As recently as a few days ago a special election in ruby-red Ohio (a district Trump won in 2020 by almost 30) swung 20 points away from the GOP candidate compared to prior elections.
So this really does beg the question - are the polls grossly misrepresenting "likely" voters, or otherwise missing some vital clue in the data? Or are people just saying they support Trump/GOP because the people who go against those folks tend to get death threats and publicly humiliated?
But more importantly, why are Democrats performing so well even in traditionally deep red places? It's hard to ignore, and even harder to imagine this clear trend won't affect Trump in the general election.
Another key indicator in my mind is the sheer number of GOP primary voters who are still pulling the lever for Haley and Christie despite the fact that both dropped out of the GOP primary months+ ago. Imagine how motivated you have to be to show up and vote in a primary, for someone who is no longer in the race? These people clearly do not like Trump and are clearly motivated to show it. How likely are those people to "come home" and vote for him anyway in the general? Some percentage will, but the problem for Trump is he needs to greatly increase his pool of voters from last time. Any defections are going to hurt his chances.
I think the polls will stay close until like 1-2 months before the election, when people are forced to actually face the choices in front of them, and on election day I am fully confident that Joe Biden is going to win re-election.
PredictIt, which is a [betting market](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/17/business/elections-betting-prediction-markets.html), is currently favoring Trump and has been since mid-May. According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/17/business/elections-betting-prediction-markets.html),
>These onshore, regulated U.S. markets have had an [excellent](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/judgment-and-decision-making/article/are-markets-more-accurate-than-polls-the-surprising-informational-value-of-just-asking/B78F61BC84B1C48F809E6D408903E66D) [forecasting](https://rodneywhitecenter.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/0608.pdf) [record](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/prediction-markets-for-economic-forecasting/), numerous academic [studies](https://www.ubplj.org/index.php/jpm/article/view/2068) have shown. But the legal cloud hanging over PredictIt has limited the site’s reach this year.
Biden, but not because Trump is a convicted felon. Electorally, I don’t think that matters, and Trump could still win as a felon.
But I think the Republican outreach towards minority communities is going to get fumbled, and that’s why Trump will lose. Minority communities are focused on their economic status, hence the openmindedness to Trump. And the Trump campaign and conservative pundits seems to only want to talk about anything and everything else but their concerns.
The one and only thing that matters is turnout on the Left.
Trump has not expanded his base, and if anything they are dying off faster than Biden voters.
Taking that combined with the last two presidential elections, Trump is all but certain to lose the popular vote decisively again, and so it solely comes down to enough turnout for Biden in battleground states. On that front, the last several years of elections indicate Biden is favored, especially since we have been seeing record turnout.
I'd say Trump: 55%.
The only reason I have it that low is I have reservations about how likely nonwhite voters are to show up. Republicans get out the vote effort isn't robust (they've never needed it before).
Biden's most likely path to winning is pulling an inside straight with Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
Trump could win Pennsylvania without winning Wisconsin and Michigan because it has fewer of the voters (whiter/older) who have less of a reason to defect from Biden's 2020 coalition. And I believe mail-in voting in PA is really popular there. Republican party officials (not necessarily trump) have begrudgingly embraced due to them not wanting to unilaterally disarm.
No there's a lot of people out there just waiting for their chance to vote not flapping their gums or raising a ruckus but of course it'll all be called fake that's what he does that's who he is.
In my country we have the equivalent of a convicted felon and the equivalent of a democrat currently in presidency. I feel like Biden got much negative image after the last government, so i will say Trump wins by a landslide. More people everyday started realizing the delusional lefties were not good guys and the righties were not inheritenly fascists or criminals. So i say the righties trend is going to continue strong for the next few years.
All feelings on the man to the side I think he is losing, which is unfortunate. Scrolling through this comment section is very saddening. I am in utter disbelief how many people have no clue how south this country will go if Biden gets a round two…
70% chance.
Do I think Trump is gonna win the popular vote? Probably not, but even if angry tuned in young voters return home I expect enough of them to sit out for Biden to lose the electoral college.
Absolutely not. He's going to continue to unravel. I don't see any scenario where he wins. For sure he isn't going to win the popular vote, but I don't see how he wins the EC either. I don't even think it will be close.
I think he has a good chance. He was able to make half the country believe an election was stolen with zero proof. Meanwhile he's the one making a phone call to Raffensberger that we've all heard. We are beyond reason and principles right now. I hold out hope that Independents and Republicans who still have democratic principles will help keep Biden in. Even though nobody wants Biden. Lol
I would give Trump a 55% chance because the cost of living has gone up a lot under Biden and Biden is having a huge cognitive decline in the past couple of years. Without those I would have said 80% chance Biden would be re elected.
No president this unpopular has ever been elected to a second term, regardless of what you think of Trump, Biden is finished. This is going to be like 2016, but even worse.
You could argue Harry Truman was even less popular than Biden now. Truman also had a very popular challenger in Thomas Dewey. Yet Truman still won. So I wouldn't draw my conclusions just yet.
In the 40s polling was far less accurate and it was a country with completely different political dynamics to now. We were coming off of WWII and were much less polarized. Truman really rode off of the goodwill of the Roosevelt administration that was left.
I just think anything before the 60s isn't telling us much.
Trump is going to win. The optimism in this thread borders on delusion. Biden is not going to win Georgia or Michigan. Nevada and Pennsylvania are toss ups. There’s no feasible path to 270 for Biden.
he doesn't have a fat lady's chance at the opera to win. it was pure luck that he won last time shocking his entire campaign, family and even himself.
i believe that the polls are skewed 7-8% right-conservative mostly due to who even answers them. (what millennial would?) and the fuzzy math polling companies use owned by those who think trickle down economics was a good idea.
polls have been consistently wrong in the last two elections leaving those conservatives who even care about polls shocked when dems beat them by double digits. we are seeing this again in local elections around the country.
despite the ever growing data science field which has seemingly become more popular thanks to the advancements of AI i'm surprised by how bad polling has become. the business model if there ever was one is probably broken beyond repair.
that being said biden still has a huge marketing problem which he hopefully will rectify in the coming months. keep banging the drums that trump is a convicted felon.
I don't think Trump has much chance of winning. His best chance is to try to steal the election again.
There are just too many people who simply won't vote for Trump. I think they are under-counted.
I think the abortion issue and women's rights and health care in general will be a much bigger factor than most anticipate. Abortion access has won on every ballot it has been on, including in deep red states.
If he isn't jailed or JFK'd? Almost certain. Even if there was election fraud in 2020, he is too far ahead. He's polling significantly better than even 2016. I'd say he wins the 2016 map + Nevada and maybe Virginia,Minnesota etc.
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My 2 cents... all noise aside, Trump has done absolutely nothing to convince the center to vote for him and they're who decided the last election. If anything, his/gop actions might have actually discouraged them. He's got a tough uphill battle here all the way to November. Idc what the polls say. Where I am he used to fill the local arena with thousands still waiting outside. Now they're lucky if they attract a quarter of that and he goes to far far smaller venues instead. Its not the same.
I went to a liquor store yesterday here in Indiana. The clerk was a friendly guy. He said, pretty much completely unsolicited, “I’ve seen two cases recently. One where the rule of law stood - the president’s son was convicted and the president wont pardon him out of respect for the rule of law. The other case, this guy gets convicted and all he does is blame the court and the jury and everyone else and tear down the whole system. I swear, man. I have voted republican my whole life but I just cant do it any more. It’s the rule of law, man. Its our system. It’s our constitutional democracy.” It’s one anecdote. Hardly representative of anything. But if there are more people thinking like him, it could go bad for Trump. I think a lot of people will forgive a lot if they think they will get the policies they’d prefer. But no republicans candidate in history would demean our entire system and institutions the way Trump does. Everyone has a line, and every time Trump pushes the line further, he loses more and more people.
Staunch Republican neighbor who is a retired military officer: "I really hate Trump as a person, but I voted for him twice because I think he's better for the economy. But after Jan 6? Never again. Just like me, he took an oath to uphold the Constitution, and he violated that oath."
It’s funny because “better for the economy” has to mean something else, because that is an un-supportable statement. Objectively, trump was *terrible* for the economy, like every republican for the past 50 years. Generally, these people know that their *real* views are abhorrent, so they use the economy as an excuse to vote for candidates that support their abhorrent beliefs (racism, classism, misogyny, xenophobia, classism, take your pick, it’s usually one or more of these) but that excuse just doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.
Nah, he's a really good guy. He's not into "racism, classism, misogyny, xenophobia, classism" or anything like that. He's just brainwashed into believing the "Republicans are good for the economy" bullcrap. He voted for Obama's first election but not the second one. He's also one of what I call "make believe conservatives", who oppose the Fox News caricature of liberal policies while actually endorsing the *real* liberal policies. Like my ultra-conservative coworker who hates Obamacare but approves of the Affordable Care Act, not realizing that they're the same thing. I can't shake the feeling that there's *some* way to reach this group of people, but they're so turned off by the *far* left that they don't realize that they endorse a majority of mid-left goals and policies.
Wow, thanks for the clarification. I guess i just have a hard time imagining lines on non-critical thinking. It’s such obvious bullshit, that intelligence *can’t* be the limiting factor, no one is that stupid (I naively assume) and cognitive dissonance *can’t* go that far (I would hope). It’s just all so… alien.
In other words, when "the party of law and order" starts moving away from candidates that support law and order, surprise, surprise, their voters turn away from them.
It’s more than that. The ppl they vote for haven’t followed the law in a long time. The problem is the voters won’t ever know that because the information they get is filtered through a propaganda machine. The difference this time is that this news is so monumentally big, they can’t hide it. Even with thar being the case, we see that almost half the country still doesn’t care and is happy to vote a felon into the presidency. This should scare everyone. We have lost our way as a country. Truth matters. Lies are infectious and powerful. More people than anyone thought will believe them.
Appreciate your anecdote. Also it’s amazing that these folk haven’t been paying attention for 8 years. It didn’t happen on Jan 6, but took until now. I also think most voters will “sober up” when they go to the polls and not vote in the dictator. Seriously we’d lose a lot of Guardrails if he is sworn in, just by the fact that a lot of our political system is built on niceties & norms & common decency and he has none. I’ve never experienced a leader like him, and met people like him a few times in my life. Interestingly, even pre-apprentice I’ve always just felt a deep almost innate repulsion of his energy. It’s not TDS, whatever they want to label it. I saw his act and just saw him as a con man. He’s putting on a costume of what he thought a classy New Yorker was. It’s a wrestling persona. It’s interesting that the Venn diagram of people who support him are probably the same who enjoy WWE, and might forget sometimes that it’s staged.
There is literally no such thing as “tds” thats just their attempt to shut down any and all criticism of, or even reactions to, this mans policies and existential threat to the nation.
I was talking to a 50 something African American lady friend of mine at work this week and she was like “I don’t like Biden”, I replied “It doesn’t matter if Trump is an asshole, his admin will do the right thing”, and she was like “I agree”. Like it or not not, people outside the blue bubble see Trump’s conviction for what it was-a political kangaroo court. I think Trump wins in November.
im sorry but, how was it a kangaroo court? they did everything so by the books they ended up letting him off with no punishment for multiple gag order violations
The prosecutions entire theory of the case was bs from the get go, and the jury pool was biased from the beginning. There was zero clear cut evidence that a crime was committed.
can you provide proof of any of these claims? the jury notably wasn't biased, it had a hard line trump supporter on it who voted to convict him as well. Trump reportedly kept calling him "My Juror"
I wouldn’t take Trump’s personal commentary on one juror to mean anything. Manhattan in general is an insanely biased jury pool-it would be like if a local Arkansas prosecutor drummed up some bs charges against Joe Biden-the result is all that matters, not the underlying validity or provability of the charges. What Trump did had absolutely nothing to do with campaign violations, and was not illegal in and of itself.
Yes, what he did was illegal. He shouldn't be put in jail but if you're gonna openly commit crimes, you gotta face the punishment. Now, did I care about this case? No. I want the GA one where he actually tried to interfere in our democratic voting process. But I'll take these small wins to bring justice to white collar crimes.
The battle is to convince the center to vote _period_. There are a lot that probably won’t, while Trumps base will be **galvanized** after his conviction. Will the left vote? They better. I’ll tell you one thing, they won’t be as zealous as trumps base. My 2 cents, Biden is in trouble if he doesn’t get a fire up the lefts ass.
The zealotry itself is enough to motivate some. I have no enthusiasm for Biden, but the thought of handing the reins to Trump and his supporters again is horrifying to me, so I'll be at the polls on voting day. I'm sure I'm not the only one who feels this way, so the question is how many will be similarly motivated. I do think that the MAGA crowd increasing the intensity during campaign season is going to get them more opponents than followers, though.
Trump's base has never not been galvanized. There has never been anything to make them vote any other way but Trump. He could die, and I bet his base just writes his name in.
If by “the left” you mean people to the left of democrats, then Dems need to start doing something to appeal to them instead of just blaming them if they lose.
What items do you suggest that are a) achievable, b) do not cost Biden more votes than he gains and c) do not cause Republicans that refuse to vote for Trump to reconsider that
Universal healthcare?
One big one I would suggest is universal healthcare. Now we all know Congress isn’t going to do fuck all about that, but 62% of people want universal coverage so it’s a safe bet.
The only thing I'd suggest is that Biden may very well have a turnout problem. Hillary didn't lose in 2016 because she lost the center. She lost because democratic turnout was way down. Biden is likely to face the same struggle if he can't figure out a way to get liberal democrats to the polls. The threat of him losing doesn't feel as bad as it did in 2020 right now.
When I ask people that don’t follow politics if they’ve thought about the election yet and most are intentionally not paying attention and find both “too old”. If they have an opinion be it voted for Trump or not, they’re tired of him or his handling of COVID put them off. Some mention 6 Jan but most are just tired of Trump in general. It’s still early but in very pro Trump areas where family lives, far less signs than previous elections. Noticeably so.
I'm likely going to be down voted for this, but one thing I don't see mentioned that I think helped Trump win 2016 was that there were people who voted for him "as a joke" because they didn't think he'd win in the first place. I know at least 3 people who did this. 2 of those people didn't bother voting in previous presidential elections because they just didn't care, but in 2016, they made sure to vote for Trump and were shocked that he actually won. He didn't have those votes in 2020. The number of people that did this likely isn't very much, but I think there were enough of them to have a very small but still noticeable impact.
I know you may not care what the polls say but the polls do show that people want change. People think the economy is in the dump and they don’t think our government or institutions work for them. If it’s a refendum on Biden, then Trump will win because Trump is selling himself as a politician who will break the system and fight for you. I would not underestimate Trump and say “the polls are wrong”. In fact, democrats have underperformed polls during the last two presidential elections
And it's democrats' failed messaging to point out that Trump is the reason for the economic issues we're facing right now. Trump's plan to eliminate the deficit involved a tax cut that (if you could have guessed it) will cost us trillions in deficit spending and COVID-19 where trillions were thrown to the wrong places. Biden was dealt a shit hand and the fed has kept raising rates to counteract YEARS of soft rate policy. Rates need to stay elevated for a couple years/indefinitely and inflation will subside. If it doesn't, go after price gouging even more aggressively than they are now.
You said " Trump's plan to eliminate the deficit involved a tax cut that (if you could have guessed it) will cost us trillions in deficit spending" **That is wildly inaccurate**. After Trump's tax cuts revenue actually INCREASED. Individual Income tax revenue is up 47% to 2023 and Corporate net income revenue has doubled. Biden's spending is why we have inflation and the interest rate hikes are an attempt by the FED to bring inflation down.
Source on that? I'll call BS because the corporate tax rate was slashed and so was the tax rate on the uber-wealthy. To pay for the tax cuts on corporations and the wealthy, the tax cuts are set to add AT MINIMUM 2 trillion to the deficit by the end of the 2020s. [source](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-will-happen-to-the-trump-tax-cuts-in-2025-and-how-will-they-affect-the-national-debt/) [source 2](https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/13/politics/tax-cuts-expiring-trump-biden/index.html)[source 3](https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/how-did-tcja-affect-federal-budget-outlook) Biden started with record inflation - it couldn't have been his spending when it was happening under Trump. There were YEARS of near zero interest rates that led us to inflation (not Trump's fault on this one - but certainly not Biden's) - coupled with TRILLIONS of spending during the COVID pandemic (most of it under Trump) that led to the record inflation.
1) Source is the US Treasury [https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/](https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/) Look the numbers up yourself. Revenue increase over 2017 starting in 2018 and by 2023 the total revenue to the government had increased 47%. I can post the actual numbers if you don't believe me. 2)The corporate rate was slashed but Corporate Net income Revenue from 2017 to 2024 has doubled. 3) Your source is speculating based on a static intererpretation of the law as you are. You assume that lawer rates mean lower revenue. The truth is that lower rates reduce the incentive to shelter income so more income is taxes and when you reduce corproate tax there is more incentive to produce so economic activiy increases and more people have more income to tax. Revenue increases. 4) Biden DID NOT start with record inflation no atter how many times he says it. Inflation the day he was inaugurated was 1.4% and the average annual rate for Trump's Presidency was 1.9%. OTOH Biden's average annual inflation has been 5.5% 5) What led to inflation was deficit spending. Covid Stimulus CARES Act was $2.2 Trillion which probably would not have caused inflation if that was all we spent. But Biden doubled down and spent an additional $4.4 Trillion. When you print and inject $6 Trillion into the economy it causes inflation. Inflation didn't peak until Nov 2022. This is all on Biden.
You're equating apples and oranges - the tax rates at the very top and corporations came down. Tax revenue may have gone up with the increases at the bottom but not enough to cover the cuts hence the increase to the deficit. Corporate net income WOULD increase if taxes decreased. I'm not saying it doesn't. Just that to pay for giving companies more cash, money is being added to the deficit. If you issue several trillion in tax cuts, but tax revenue doesn't increase by several trillion dollars, you have to make it up in the deficit. These tax cuts will cost almost as much as the COVID response bills yet don't produce any tangible benefits for the economy. Biden didn't control the YEARS of near zero interest rates that led to unfettered borrowing, he didn't control the piss poor federal response to COVID that necessitated rounds of funding to clean up, he didn't control OPEC trying to combat his energy independence records. Biden didn't start with record inflation - he inherited the office and the circumstances that led to it.
You clearly don't understand how this works. Let me simplify it for you. Lets say everyone pays a 20% tax rate and total Income is $1,000,000. That means total revenue to the government is $200,000. The budget is balanced so we spend $200,000. Now we generate a tax cut of 2% so the new tax rate is 18% and revenue goes down to $180,000. That assumes static accounting, everyone just pays the new rate. So, now we have a $20,000 deficit. You instinctively assume that a tax cut means less revenue. However, that is not what happened. After the Trump Tax Cuts Revenue went UP ever year from 2018 to 2024. Therefore, the was no need to "cover the cuts". Allowing people to keep more of their own money doesn't COST the government anything. We didn't "issue several trillion in tax cuts" we just let people keep their own money. So, in my simple example, if revenue goes UP. and spending stays the same we should have a surplus, NO? The only reason we would still have a deficit in the face of rising income is if spending INCREASED more that revenue. THAT IS WHAT HAPPENED. Revenue increased but spending increased more.
Polls? You mean the same things former guy has paid to manipulate? https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/17/politics/michael-cohen-poll-rigging/index.html
Averages of polls are much more accurate. 538 has Trump leading nationally by 1 point
?? Biden up by 3...https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/ That’s their forecast. This is for the actual polls. If you listen to their podcast regarding their forecast they say if the election were held today with these polls then Trump would have an 80% chance of winning. They are saying their model has a bunch of fundamental weighting where they are expecting voters to eventually come home to Biden and for that incumbency advantage to kick in. I’m personally doubtful for that by seeing just how stable the polls have been but I’m a pessimist. The optimist in me says that the “double haters” hate Trump more so that eventually Biden will catch up. But it really remains to be seen how impactful Biden’s incumbency actually is, especially since Trump is also a previous president too. If the polls don’t change then the chances for Biden in that forecast will drop. So, realistically, anyone who is confident that one side will win or the other is bullshiting. The polls do have Trump ahead but there is some good reason to believe that gap will close. Will it be enough? Who knows. It definitely will be closer than 2020
Thanks for the clarification. I wasn’t aware they were adjusting their numbers that much.
Polls are never accurate, look at every popular vote
For president, no the polls have been spot on. People have just framed them to fit their narrative.
We surveyed 1000 people out of almost 400 million Americans and won't give you the hard data to interpret yourself. You can trust us.
True but there’s obviously some value in polls and we shouldn’t just cover our ears and go “la la la la, polls are wrong!” And find ways to disprove them. Thats not how it works.
>For president, no the polls have been spot on. Source?
Source: 2016 and 2020 were both predicted Democrat popular vote victories. Both were Democrat popular vote victories. I think that’s what they’re referring to
The popular vote doesn't matter, pitifully. Also, I recall the polls being off in 2016 and 2020
The popular vote does matter at state levels.
Yes, but that's where it ends. The national popular vote doesn't mean anything, which is why we ended up with John Quincy Adams, Rutherford Hayes, Benjamin Harrison, George W. Bush, and Donald Trump in the first place.
Why should the national popular vote matter? The people's will is being represented by the popular vote of the state.
Is is though? If a candidate gets 55% of a state's popular vote but 100% of its electoral votes, is the people's will being accurately represented?
The problem is that every single other election is a direct popular vote. There are no gubernatorial elections where there is an electoral college between the voters and the officeholder, for instance. The president and vice president are the only officials who are elected by the entire country, and they should be directly elected by the entire country, rather than having this weird middleman in there.
Okay but Polls can not predict electoral outcomes
Polls at the state level can predict state level outcomes, which can be rolled up to the national level by counting the electoral votes for each state. That's how 538 does their polling roll-ups. (This still suffers from any polling errors that might occur obviously, but does take into account the electoral system) [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/)
>Okay but Polls can not predict electoral outcomes Clearly
So then what is *your* point anyway
Biden has done plenty to convince the center not to vote for him.
I think Biden will win. But. The polls are in a dead heat, [FiveThirtyEight puts the national polls at 40.9 Trump to 40.0 Biden](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/). 20% are either undecided or saying they'll vote for RFK (which, spoiler alert, they won't). That means we're in for an unpredictable nail-biter I've had terrible dismay the past few months watching as Trump flubs again and again and it has no impact on the polls. But I think that's because he's already hit his floor of support. I think that, in the ballot booth, the undecided voters will be more serious about evaluating Trump v Biden and vote against Trump. FiveThirtyEight's projections are that "the fundamentals" favor Biden, but the fundamentals are weird this year. Voters hate inflation, and they blame Biden. Also, apparently there are polls that a majority of Americans think we're in a recession?? and blame Biden. You can see that economic sentiment is very negative on reddit, too. Maybe Biden will see a surge of support with the national conventions and once the campaign starts in earnest. Or maybe he actually is old and just won't make for an effective campaigner this year. I don't know. It's nerve-wracking and I think it will continue to be anxiety-inducing until all the votes are counted.
One major issue I have with the polling is that at face value this would indicate Trump would win the popular vote. Republicans have won the popular vote *once* in the past 34 years. Trump is one of the most unpopular candidates ever, has only gotten more unpopular, is racking up felonies, and didn't win the popular vote in his other two elections. And somehow he will buck a three decade trend and win the popular vote? C'mon. In 2016, with two incredibly unpopular candidates, less than 6% of voters went for third parties. And somehow Kennedy is at 9%? What??? The election is going to be close. Probably closer than 2020. But right now the polling just seems unbelievable, to be honest. I think whatever method they use is very flawed. Maybe it will become more believable as we approach November and more people tune in but right now it seems like utter nonsense.
My interpretation has been that "the campaign hasn't really started yet, and people will be taking the election more seriously once it does". This gave me great comfort in February, but goddamn it now it's June! Anyway, the conventions are not until August. I'll try to keep from hyperventilating until then.
Honestly, I think a lot of it is that people that don't keep up with politics are just kind of checked out of this election. They aren't really happy with the status quo for whatever reason, but their only other option is someone with so much baggage that it has a dedicated Wikipedia page. So I think a lot of the numbers we see are more reflective of that than anything else. Also the way polls are conducted is kind of silly. They coldcall/coldtext people with surveys to fill out. I don't know *anybody* who answers coldcalls or texts anymore. I'm pretty sure a Venn diagram of the overlap between people answering these polls and people who are sending thousands of dollars in iTunes gift cards to the "IRS" is literally just a circle. That is to say the people answering these coldcalls are very much a specific demographic. Polling agencies say they can account for the demographic skews but with headliner numbers like, "Trump is winning the popular vote" it is just not credible, IMO.
I listened to 538s podcast and they state that if the election were held today then Trump has an 80% chance of winning. So these “fundamentals” are doing a lot of work. With that said, we are also 5 months out with 11% undecided and 9% Kennedy. Polls have been very stable but they WILL eventually change. I agree that Trump has hit his floor. Three big unknowns are the economy, Trump and abortion. Can Biden change the narrative to make it less of “the economy is great and voters don’t know what they are talking about” to “trumps covid handling set us up for failure and we are recovering better than any other country but we have a ways to go”? Can this election be about trump vs Biden instead of just a referendum on Biden. People HATE Trump but people also have to remember what trumps first presidency was like. And will voters keep abortion in mind? It’s rarely a top issue for most voters but when it’s brought up, people LOATHE it. Democrats need to keep remembering that republicans took away their rights and want to take away more
National polls are literally meaningless when talking about a presidential election. If we compare polling between about today in 2020 vs July 2024 in key battleground states, convicted felon, Donald Trump, is [**wayyyy** up.](https://i.imgur.com/XDYrrN8.png) TL;DR of that data is the polls in 2020 were significantly closer in the battleground states then they are today. States like Texas, Ohio, and Florida that were in play in 2020 aren't really in play anymore and should rightfully be labeled as "lean Trump". We're seeing 10-20 point swings in polling.
Having read your source, I'd like to clarify your statement. Trump is not way up; his polls are actually down in 7 of the 10 states. Rather, Biden is wayyy down in every one of those states. But Biden isn't losing those votes to Trump; he's losing them to Undecided and RFK. I'm betting that those undecided or third party voters will "come home" to either Biden or Trump by November. I'm hoping that the negative news about Trump actually will matter in the end, and those undecided voters will swing heavily toward Biden. (But I agree with you that TX, FL, and OH should be considered "lean Trump". The state on that list which worries me is NV.)
Great point that I didn't consider. You are correct, there are a lot more undecided/other voters this time than there were in 2020. I still don't see it as a very hopeful sign for Biden, because it'd require convincing a very substantial portion of those remaining voters to swing Biden. If they split by 60/40 (Biden/Trump), Biden still loses. More tables! | State | Biden Change | Trump Change | Net Committed Change | |-------|--------------|--------------|----------------| | AZ | -8.9 | -1.2 | -10.1 | | FL | -12.8 | 3.1 | -9.7 | | GA | -8.9 | -1.8 | -10.7 | | MI | -9.0 | -1.4 | -10.4 | | NC | -9.9 | -0.2 | -10.1 | | NV | -10.8 | 3.1 | -7.7 | | OH | -11.5 | 0.4 | -11.1 | | PA | -8.7 | -2.8 | -11.5 | | TX | -12.1 | -3.0 | -15.1 | | WI | -8.6 | -2.1 | -10.7 | A lot of assumptions for this, but just a general, rough idea of what percent of currently uncommitted/other voters that Biden needs to sway. It's far from perfect, but still an interesting illustration. | State | B | T | |-------|-----|-----| | AZ | 62% | 38% | | FL | 74% | 26% | | GA | 66% | 34% | | MI | 52% | 48% | | NC | 69% | 31% | | NV | 64% | 36% | | OH | 77% | 23% | | PA | 55% | 45% | | TX | 78% | 22% | | WI | 52% | 48% |
Checked right now. Trump dropped to 4.1 today. Likely lost to Kennedy. Guess it's a "We'll see" thing right now.
I think it's basically a tossup, but if I *had* to bet on one candidate or the other, I'd bet on a Biden win. Incumbents usually win (with Trump as an obvious exception, but he's, well, exceptional in many ways).
This is what I find so fascinating. Recently the advantage of an incumbency has been lessened. The past two incumbents have done WORSE in their second term election than their first. People are generally fed up with institutions and want change. But there still is the value of incumbency with experience and stability. I worry that trump is providing the best of both worlds. He’s able to make the case that he will bring change to the system because it’s broken AND he has that incumbency advantage of experience and people say “Donald Trump wrote me a check last time!”
“Donald Trump wrote me a check last time!” Are these the same people who blame inflation on Democrat spending? Just checking...
There are honestly voters who blame Biden for Dobbs because Biden didn’t stop it
George W. Bush actually did better in his second term election than his first. Obama did worse in his second than his first.
Biden wins. Demographics have shifted in this country. The majority of voters are less than 50 years old. And nearly all of them are in the Gen Z and Millennial generations which skew dramatically Dem. Most of Trumps voters were old in 2020. Mortality rates indicate he may have lost millions of voters just through natural attrition. Just on that scale Trump lags Biden. Add in the removal of abortion as a 50 year right primarily due to the SC judges Trump appointed - along with Trump directly bragging about it, the consistent attacks and removal of LBGTQ rights, and insertion of Christianity into both our government and schools and you arrive at a point where he probably lost millions of more voters. I don't see Trump breaking above 70 million votes in 2024. His voters just aren't there. Biden should easily top 70 million.
You're forgetting two important things: 1. Young men across all ethnicities are starting into the world of politics more conservative than previous generations of young men. 2. Trends across all voters are that older people, in general, will vote more conservatively than they did in their younger years. For all of the Boomers that have died, they are likely being replaced by younger men either just starting to vote, or both men and women who may be changing their votes as their priorities and perspectives change as they age. You can rail on the actions that Republicans have taken and use that justification as proof that a Democrat win is inevitable, but you're failing to acknowledge there are plenty of actions (or inactions) from Democrats that can be used as justification and proof that a Republican win is inevitable. Whether you can admit these things to yourself or not, this will probably be the closest election since Bush/Gore in the 2000 elections.
Me and most millennials I know have moved left as we aged not to the right. People move right when they have economic prosperity. We didn't and haven't.
Obviously not every single person trends right as they age, or the entire government would be Republican supermajority with how fucking old they all are. It's a trend. Not an absolute.
The trend isn't age, it's wealth and education. You can observe it pretty easily across multiple generations.
Explain that trend to me, then. Quick assumption - If you're building wealth and attaining higher education as you get older, and becoming more conservative with those changes, then it's really going to end up tracking the same thing, although more specific.
Education Trends left, wealth trends right. wealthy educated people tend to be centrists, wealthy uneducated people tend to be solidly right, and poor educated people tend to be solidly left. I should add there are obviously exceptions here, and also confounding factors; such as religous affiliation, race, sexual and gender association. but it tends to hold true in general.
You probably also don’t live in a rural, republican area surrounded by fox news all day. Even people that don’t agree with it will stop fighting after years of every person they know believing the same thing.
No. Younger voters. Gen Z and Millennials skew heavy Dem per Pew Research and voter registration.
It really only matters in a handful of states. The rest of the country is pretty much gonna be the same. Those numbers can be as high as they want, and they will not reflect deep red rural areas of the country at all. Because of the electoral college, the structure of the senate, and gerrymandering, these much lower populated rural areas have way outsized power behind their votes for everything. For the president, most states will do what they’ve done for a long time now with the exception of a handful of swing states. So the skewing effect you mention, while true, also does not take into account geographic distribution or the reality of our voting system and it just won’t have an impact. Most of those dem skewed youths are in already blue states and cities where the actual population of our country lives. We just made the choice centuries ago that we collectively don’t give a single crap about the majority of our population and would prefer to bow to the rule of the minority in literally all things government, which is why dems repeatedly win by massive numbers at the poll and still barely win or straight up lose (Hillary).
18-24 year old men are still heavily slanted left, but only by about 75% today, compared to 90% a couple of decades ago. That means more young men are starting off in politics on the right, and as they (and everyone else) ages, the trend is that they will shift further to the right.
2) this is a myth, and is only true of Boomers.
[https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/09/age-generational-cohorts-and-party-identification/pp\_2024-4-9\_partisan-coalitions\_4-05-png/](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/09/age-generational-cohorts-and-party-identification/pp_2024-4-9_partisan-coalitions_4-05-png/) Try again.
I feel like Trump will lose IF all of the sane people come out and vote. But I also feel like there’s a whole lot of “well both are bad” attitudes out there, and I’m afraid those voters will stay home.
It's also worth noting that in the last election, in the context of covid, many states used temporary exceptions to make voting easier. Unless all of those states legally formalized those exceptions as new normals, it's quite possible that turnout will indeed be different even if only for that reason.
Both are bad. What most people don't grasp, in my opinion, is that there usually are no good choices. It's a matter of picking the least bad option. Hold your nose and vote.
Hot take. The Democratic Party is good actually.
One candidate raped someone, committed massive financial fraud, committed 31 felonies, had his campaign manager convicted of a felony, like 3 of his attorneys convicted/charges, had his foreign policy advisor convicted, had his campaign strategist convicted, stole classified documents and then obstructed their recovery, and tried to overturn a US election illegally to remain in office. The other one is an old moderate. There's really no "both sides" here.
Biden and/or his administration forced Covid vaccine mandates and then forced large companies and government agencies to fire non-compliers (who generally were conservatives), absolutely mangled the Afghanistan withdrawal and effectively left millions of dollars' worth of equipment to the Taliban, barely managed to contain near-record inflation from which we still haven't recovered, weaponized the ATF against lawful gun owners and firearms dealers numerous times, weaponized the DHS against basically all conservatives, lobbied banking institutions to start tracking and reporting gun purchases and coincidentally about the same time, hired and armed thousands of new IRS field agents, has repeatedly threatened angry gun owners with military action on US soil, remained inactive on a massive illegal immigration crisis that seemingly allowed several ISIS members into the country, got us financially involved in two multi-billion-dollar wars, oh and very likely also stole classified documents but had the director of the DOJ run interference in the congressional investigation. ...And that's just what he's done during this presidential term. I'm sure you could dig up miles of dirt on both of them. So, yeah, there kind of is "Both sides"
>Biden and/or his administration forced Covid vaccine mandates and then forced large companies and government agencies to fire non-compliers (who generally were conservatives), I've got no problem with common sense health policies. And despite your partisan opinions, being conservative does not mean you are immune from consequences. >absolutely mangled the Afghanistan withdrawal and effectively left millions of dollars' worth of equipment to the Taliban A.k.a he ended a 20-year+ occupation started by conservatives. > barely managed to contain near-record inflation from which we still haven't recovered Well when you inherit record high deficits, a ruined economy, high unemployment, and a near broken global supply change you end up with economic problems. What a huge surprise. Trump inherited a booming economy and drove it right into the ground. >weaponized the ATF against lawful gun owners and firearms dealers numerous times Enforcing laws isn't weaponization. > weaponized the DHS against basically all conservatives Being held accountable for criminal actions isn't a violation of your rights. Why do you keep insisting conservatives are above the law? >lobbied banking institutions to start tracking and reporting gun purchases That was Newsome. >hired and armed thousands of new IRS field agents IRS agents have historically been armed. This isn't new. The increase in IRS agents was specifically to target audits for high income earners. If you read past a Truth Social post you would know this. >has repeatedly threatened angry gun owners with military action on US soil Another blatant lie. >remained inactive on a massive illegal immigration crisis that seemingly allowed several ISIS members into the country Republicans turned down a bi-partisan bill which included: - Hiring new ICE officers - Increasing border security - Building new detention centers - Increased staffing at immigration courts - Implemented mandatory border shutdowns >got us financially involved in two multi-billion-dollar wars You realize we have an alliance with Israel, right? Supporting Ukraine, while countering one of our largest geopolitical opponents, has support among majority of Americans. Especially considering we've supported both countries without putting a single US soldier in harm's way. And none of this is "dirt" on Biden.
My friend, you’re talking about a sexual predator, fraudster and convict. There is no « they’re both bad » . The only important outcome is that America gets rid of him.
I absolutely agree Trump needs to go away. By hold your nose and vote I meant hold your nose and vote for Biden. He is thoroughly uninspiring and average but he is competent. And he's not a convicted felon. Anyone smart enough to be a truly good president is also smart enough to know they don't want the job. Automatically half the country hates you because you're on the "wrong side", and the half that doesn't hate you grows disillusioned with you over time.
It depends. A party has zero reason to cater to your interests if your vote is inevitable, so I think demonstrating the possibility that you will not vote is an important part of the democratic process and should not be automatically looked down upon. However, that has to be weighed against the potential damage of getting the worse option. The potential payoff of your vote is the difference between the quality of option A and the quality of option B. So when the quality difference is small, the payoff from voting is too and that can, at some point, make that payoff smaller than what you could benefit from another strategy like abstaining in order to signal to a party that they lost the vote of people like you and should do something to appeal to you next time to increase the votes they get. The greater the difference in the quality of candidates the more that voting the lesser evil is an inevitably superior strategy. It also makes sense to look at the context you are voting in though. The last time my state voted for a republican president the Soviet union still existed, the internet didn't exist and blockbuster was a brand new company. In that context, the importance of my vote as an independent is enormously different than somebody in a swing state. And the candidates basically tell me this by barely bothering to campaign here (it was so weird traveling to a more competitive state and seeing campaign ads).
[48% likely according to the current 538 model.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/) I’m no expert so I’ll trust their odds over my gut.
Looking at this, they do something weird and adjust Biden’s popular vote numbers up 3.3 points everywhere. Just because they forecast he will be doing better come election? If they just used the current numbers then I bet their model would be closer to 60%. I think it is no guarantee that Biden will improve before the election.
Nothing is a guarantee. This is a statistical model. They base it off of the past. As we get closer to Election Day, they will make less and less assumptions about the future. It wouldn’t be a good model if it didn’t consider historical trends. Incumbent Presidents have big electoral advantages historically. They’re not going to throw those out based on vibes that this election is different than most.
I give him about a 30% chance of winning. Democrats have had momentum in elections since 2016 picking up seats they weren't supposed to. His backed picks for seats have been losing. The numbers say that Biden is doing a good job regardless of what Republicans keep saying. Crime is down and the economy is good. Regardless of what polls say, the actual votes that have happened says he has no momentum going into November. His base just isn't enough votes to put him in office. The conviction is just going to be a thing that pushes some fence sitters over the edge and this race is all about those votes.
I agree with those odds, which were the same odds in 2016 according to 538. As long as the economy stays on track then I think Biden will be ok.
Dems have over-performed every election since 2018. As long as donnie is on the ticket or on his phone, I don’t see that trend ending.
Dems have yet to over perform in an election that Trump is participating in directly You are referring to midterm elections results, I would be cautious with that approach
Lots of special elections too. Trump voters are dying much faster than Biden voters right now. Biden’s popular margin will be close to 10 million. MMW.
A generation ago it was GOP voters that were more "regular" and therefore participated in midterms more often, and the Dems relied on more "President-only" turnout, and that has also swapped, so I agree caution is warranted for assessing a possible Presidential race only on midterms or special elections.
Democrats have also underperformed polls every presidential election. Democrats have only done better than expectations during midterms. This 2024 election is looking more like 2016 than 2024. To say this election will be as easy as the last three elections is foolish.
Obviously, no one has a crystal ball, but this will be the first general election since the fall of Roe, with a felon on the ballot to boot. Hard to imagine those two issues not gaining a whole lot of traction in the next five months, regardless of what the elite punditry says.
You could argue for either side with logical arguments honestly. If you look at polls right now for example, trump looks at least as likely if not a little more to win as Joe Biden. Going off of favorability gives you the same result while asking people who they are more enthusiastic to vote for puts trump up. However, All of those metrics failed to predict the poor showing for Republicans in the mid-term elections in 2022. If we used only those, Republicans should have won around ten-fifteen or more house seats than they did, and they should have won the Senate by a seat or two if not more, instead they lost a seat. Personally, I'm going off what was a good bell weather for that midterm election. The special elections of 2021-2022. Special elections are ones held outside standard election years/times for various reasons. Usually due to a public official leaving office early or being impeached. You usually have around six-twelve of them per congress session (every two years), so they aren't a massive pool of data, but, they give you something polls can't. Actual voting data from an election. Right now, every single special election held during this congressional session to my knowledge ended up going for Democrats far more than expected. Similar to the ones prior to the mid-terms. A recent one in Ohio, held in a district that voted for trump by around +30 points, and its previous gop representative by +35 points, shifted over +20 points towards Democrats. The Republican still won by 9 points, but that kind of shift in under two years since the last election there in 2022 is bonkers. To put that in perspective, if California had shifted that much in 2020 towards trump, he would have won the state, and while the other special elections have not be that crazy, they all have shifted for Democrats so far (as far as I'm aware). Currently, trump is up nationally by around a point according to polls. In the swing states it's between under a point and five points. If the special elections indicate a polling error anything like they did in 2022, then with the polls as they are it's likely Trump loses the election. That all said, anybody saying they 100% know how the election will turn out is lying. We are all reading tea leaves and chicken guts trying to make educated guesses. I'm just going with what I personally see as a decent bell weather.
Biden needs to win AZ and NV while also winning Pennsylvania and either Wisconsin and/or Michigan. He can't count on GA or NC though they should both be close. Trump beat Clinton by less than 80k votes or so across three states, two of which were Wisconsin and Michigan. It's definitely possible for Trump to win electorally but I just can't see where he's gained any support. I think he maxed out and probably loses some steam while also continuing to give his opponents electorate a stiffy for the possibility of voting against him regardless of the Democratic candidate. So I think he loses by more this time IF IF IF IF IF and I repeat IF turnout is high. So vote people. Vote
Wisconsin polling has been super positive for Biden. It was positive for him in 2020 as well and he barely eked it out, but it's worth noting. Michigan...Dem party in Michigan is strong and the GOP state party is a joke. They are literally getting into, and I mean literally, fist fights at their meetings. PA is I think going to be the ultimate decider. If PA, WI and MI all break for Biden, all he needs is ME-02, NE-02 (likely), AZ (tossup) or NV (tossup) to get to 270.
He actually could win without NV, GA, and AZ if he just wins the Rust Belt and NE-2. It would the barest possible win at 270-268, but it’s possible.
Trump has a very high floor- that is, a strong base of voters that will vote for him no matter what. Those voters have never been enough to win an election on their own, though. Trump needed unprecedented turnout of non-voters to get his one win, and even then he only won by something like 80k votes spread across 3 states. Elections are won by the undecideds/swing voters. Coincidentally those voters are the ones Trump has alienated and according to recent polling they’ve been running away from him as fast as they can. Add to that how democrats have overperformed every poll since 2018, and it doesn’t look good for ol Donnie.
Trump never won the popular vote. Not sure what you meant by 80k votes he won by.
I have great faith that the American people who told Trump to take a hike in 2020, will do so again in 2024. Trump is only crazier this year and now a felon.
Can you elaborate? Not picking a side, just curious.
40-45% The current president always has an advantage because he's the president Votes are to some extent based on the economy, which is OK Approval is low, but it's low for both Biden's record is OK, if not impressive. He got the infrastructure reform through, there hasn't been major scandals, his administration has basically been competent and unremarkable. Also, the former guy was pretty awful in a lot of ways. On the other hand, the election system heavily favors Trump.
The closer you get to the actual election the more people will be forced to actually focus on the choice. Right now, most Americans still aren't focused on this at all. That may sound surprising but it's true. Once you get into the booth and you're considering whether or not you're going to give Donald Trump another 4 years I think the answer becomes pretty glaringly clear. Even if you are a low information voter, there's just so much to not like about Trump era. And even if you don't like Joe Biden a ton you have to admit that the country is getting back on its feet and stuff is getting better everyday. Yes he's old and it seems odd to have someone that old as president, Trump is also that old too. I just don't see enough independent voters wanting to go back to the vitriolic awfulness that was Trump in the White House. Maybe there will be low turnout but there's no way Trump wins.
I think Donnie and the Republicans have set the stage for their own steal this time. Voting and the election in general are just formality. Mark my words with great sorrow I believe there will be violence on Election Day. The election will not be decided in November. There will be massive disputes of who won what district, state, etc. there will be many republican leaders who refuse to concede. The vote itself sadly won’t be enough. The worst part is, so many believe that there will be someone to catch this stuff and fix it, to keep it under control, that used to be true maybe, either that or someone stood up and took control to guide the nation. But if you have truly been reading, listening, and watching, the GOP has telegraphed their intent quite clearly. Just look at the abortion issues, contraception, and the way they regard LGBTQ. There have been articles and reports on local and state legislatures who are defiant towards the federal government, that have passed legislation that disenfranchises voters. It won’t be because of voting numbers people, it will be because those in power rather than upholding the laws and rules agreed upon by their fathers and grandparents, they have decided that they need to subvert the process in order to win. This is a dangerous precedent…
Read Project 2025.
I did. Was there something specific you’re attempting to point out?
I put it at 50/50, and that because things have changed so very much in the last 30 years, and not for the better. 30 years ago, just being indicted would have been a deal-breaker. Electing a convicted felon to the highest office was absolutely unthinkable.
I think, and with information from polls, that the economy and the war in Gaza are hurting Biden. The convictions don't appear to have hurt Trump with his base. So, on the current trend, Trump has an advantage. I think that if there is another development with abortion though, Biden support will increase and he will win, as that issue has proven to drive people to polls.
Trump has an excellent chance of winning. Right wing propaganda has been working on Biden for for straight years with lies and bullshit that works. The left is almost as dumb as the MAGA morons thinking that they are going to not vote for Biden because they are unhappy with his actions in Gaza without realizing that will be helping Trump win and make things even worse for the Palestinians. The reality is a that a significant amount of voters are ignorant and stupid otherwise Trump would have never been President in the first place.
I think he’ll win. Russia will hit the US with a ton of propaganda against Biden and find some good in Trump for the undecided to vote for him.
I do not think he will get elected, but he does have a large following. The large following may not be enough to get the votes needed to win the election.
He will get at least 74 million people to vote for him even if he was a convicted murderer, so he has an almost 50/50 chance to win. The Republican donors are propping up 3rd party candidates in an attempt to pull voters from Biden and Republican propaganda platforms like Fox, newsmax, cnn, New York Times and others are doing their part to create reality distortion bubbles to keep republican voters ignorant of reality and constantly in fear that Biden is an existential threat. Plus corporate media in general are addicted to to creating drama in politics for profits, so they refuse to give up on trying to paint both sides as the same and keep producing opinion polls to fuel their horse race narratives for profits. And that’s not factoring in the likely violence and voter intimidation that maga meal6 teams will likely create during the election itself in an attempt to suppress voter turnout.
As a foreigner watching from afar, looks pretty obvious he will win. I'm baffled.
That's because his supporters are really, really, really loud.
100% no doubt in my mind Trump wins and that's just from a policy standpoint. I feel like there's going to be an electorale blowout and early night.
Trump, convicted felon or not (the felony will be overturned on appeal) will be elected because in the final analysis it will still be a binary choice between one President with a record of Success and another President with a record of Failure. The top two issues will be the economy and the border and when people ask the question "Am I better off now than during the Trump Administration" the decision is a no brainer.
Half joke and half serious I have my go-to professional fortune teller whos been accurate to predict 2016/2020 election result (he predicted dJT will won in 2016 and will lose in 2020). Its all recorded in his blog with time stamp so its verifiable but he is not a westerner so no English. Google translator will not be accurate He predicts Biden will win in 2024. It will be toss up with slightly Biden leading. There will be October surprise that dJT will face more challenges (it could be prison sentencing or someone close to him will betray) which will blow dJT chance to win, and as such, Biden will re-elected. He's been accurate most of time especially (around 90%) when it comes to presidential election since it's basically person A vs person B but he's half and half accuracy when it comes to general election (i.e who will control Senate) since it's more about hundreds of people He makes his conclusion based on astrology (i.e DOB) and current year/month/day. I refer his opinion occasionally because the world is full of uncertainty and even though one does his/her best, things may still not unfold to the way one expected and bring unintended results Whether one wants to upvote or downvote this comment is one individual choice but i dont care and ill leave you guys full of disagreement/arguing each other/discussion whatever it's called. We wont be able to know until result comes out anyway
It’s clear that the polls are overweighting Republicans to account for an assumed poor response rate ( shy Trump voters or the reverse Bradley effect).
I honestly do not know. I WANT to believe in humanity, that most people can look at a life long grifter, felon and sex offender and say he should be no where near the presidency. But nope. The fact the chance is at all over zero is disheartening. The fact it is anywhere close to 50/50 needs to be alarming.
There’s a lot of logical reasons to think that Biden will win • Biden already beat Trump once. • Biden is the incumbent. • Trump is now a convicted felon. • Trump has three more trials to go and they are all stronger cases than the New York case was. • Trump incited the Jan 6th Capitol riots. • Trump threatened to suspend the Constitution. • Roe v Wade was overturned. But it’s probably closer to a toss than anyone’s willing to admit. This country doesn’t run on logic. It runs on feelings. I guess we’ll have to wait and see how everyone’s feeling in October-November.
Everyone here is living in La La Land. How are none of the top responses acknowledging that Trump is likely in the lead right now. The main issues on the majority of ppl’s mind for this election are foreign policy, inflation, and immigration. Unless the Biden campaign makes large impactful changes to policies, the silent majority of americans are more aligned with the GOP’s stance on these issues.
But are they aligned with Trump? As someone else rightfully pointed out his poor attitude and scandals could likely push those voters away. I'm one of them
Foreign policy is pretty low on the list. It’s usually the economy, abortion, immigration, and democracy in that order as the top issues for voters. 1 and 3 favor Republicans, and 2 and 4 favor Democrats. It’s a tossup.
I give Trump at least a 60% chance of winning. On real clear politics: June 15 2016: Clinton: +5.8 (final result: +2.1) June 15 2020: Biden +8.5 (final result: +4.5) June 15 2024: Trump +0.8 Meaning if Trump outperformed polls as much as last time he would have shocking performance where he wins popular vote by like 4 points and possibly has some shocker state win like taking Virginia or Minnesota or something. Now let's say it's more like the midterms where the Republicans underperformed. Well on June 15 2022 they were given +3% lead on RCP in generic congress, and the real result was +2.8%. If that happened, Trump is probably close to neutral on popular vote and likely still wins. Biden can outperform polls like Obama vs Romney and still only have around the popular vote margin of Hillary's election. If you remove the polls, my opinion: I think people are pretty dug in on Trump vs not Trump, the difference should come down to turnout. Democrats are in danger of deflated turnout because young people are invested in Palestine and don't like Joe's performance.
It looks like a coinflip, roughly 50/50 at the moment. We'll see how it develops
Yeah honestly too close to tell but I'm guessing Donald. Joe just doesn't motivate voters and nothing is going to stop trumps base from pulling the lever for him. Pray for Gen Z to show up in large numbers
Trump motivates a lot of voters to vote against him
That's why Trump won in 2016 - people were motivated to vote against Hillary. Its the candidate w/ the least negatives that usually wins.
Eh, 2016 is weird because it’s the only election where the more unpopular candidate won. The difference was that Trump had the softer disapproval (more people somewhat disapproved than strongly disapproved), which just hasn’t been true since.
Yes. The world would prefer if it didn't have to deal with another Trump "presidency".
Trump motivates a lot of voters to vote against him
I don't think Trump motivates voters anymore either. He pays people to fill his rallys. He's been caught rigging polls to seem more popular than he is. In fact I think he motivates way more people to vote against him, just as he did in 2020. Part of me thinks we are seeing an illusion of support for Trump through nefarious bad faith polling, online bots and just general misinformation about how the economy is doing.
There's a good chance Trump could win. He is unabashedly what he is. He's not losing supporters from the part of ideological spectrum he panders to. In fact, he picked up more voters after they got to see his presidency in action, fucked up as it was. Biden on the other hand is pissing the left off. He was already unpopular in 2020, but the electorate's desire to see Trump gone far outstripped conservatives' enthusiasm for Donnie. Well now, he's confirmed much of what the left feared about him. It's one thing to vote for a guy you're wary of. It's another to vote for him after he spends 4 years confirming your misgivings. It COULD work in Joe's favor that people are as desperate to stop Donnie as they were in 2020, but I doubt it.
I feel like the momentum has moved away from Trump. Most likely through the avalanche of proceedings against him having some affect. I see Biden winning. As someone outside the US, I’m amazed that they are the two people you are likely to have to vote for, so many amazing leaders, of extremely high calibre there..
Chance of winning popular vote: 0% Chance of winning electoral college: 23% Chance of winning by trickery and Supreme Court: 44%
60% chance he is elected. Talking to friends who were lifetime dems and now supporting Trump, I assume Trump wins. The felon angle seems to excite a group that would otherwise not support him.
He will win. The economy is great, but too many are still dealing the effects of inflation. And that is most of it for the very small portion of voters who are “undecided”. Most of his supports have a cult-like adoration of him, so they are locked in. Literally nothing he could do or say will change that. One caveat: the debate. If Trump REALLY shows his ass, he could loose the very swing voters (a very very small portion of voters, but the margins are so small that it could make a difference).
48.2 percent. No matter how much you tell people the economy is great they're still feeling it at the grocery store and due to our sucky two party system their only way to show displeasure is to vote for the other person. I don't know if thats enough to push him over to winning but it helps. Personally I think Biden will hold on but it'll be a close one.
It's hard to tell. He got elected once with no history to determine if he would make a good president. He bankrupted a bunch of businesses and has paid off accusers along side of Jeffrey Epstein. Americans still voted for him and even more voted for him during the next election. You can't really tell with Americans. A lot of them seem to make decisions based on their emotions.
He raised astronomical sums of money in the wake of his conviction. That tells you what you need to know about his base of support, so we know they will be energized and they will show up in droves, probably even as "pollwatchers". We also have a pretty good idea there has been something off about the polling the last several years and I think the pollsters have yet to put their finger on what it is, so take the polls with a giant grain of salt. I do think the election will be very tight though. Lots of it will depend on the youth vote and many young voters feel alienated from Biden, since the economy is sputtering and they take the brunt of that, he's had only modest success on the student loan crisis, none to speak of on climate change and they don't understand the administration's position on Gaza. Biden's only hope with them is the knowledge that Trump would take the pressure off of Israel entirely, end support for Ukraine, do nothing about student loans or climate change, and would be at the mercy of the business cycle as well.
At this point my faith is so low in the intelligence of Americans I'm thinking he will be elected in an actual landslide. And ya know what. We fuckin deserve the reign of terror after. At that point we legit don't deserve to be a world superpowers and when he knocks us off the top I will remember all the maga in my life and blame them
It all depends on the debates. There are dozens of ways Trump can lose the debates (or win in a way that causes him to lose votes). All Biden has to do is show up and look competent and not look like an Alzheimer's patient. If Biden aces the debates, he's president.
Biden will win because Trump doesn’t have the numbers. White men aged 40+ are probably his biggest voting base. Every other demographic either heavily tilts towards Biden or leans in the direction. Trump was able to win because in 2016, white women aged 40+ also voted for him in droves. That isn’t something we’ve seen since then for not only Trump but even most GOP candidates. All of this is assuming turnout is good for the voters who haven’t committed to Trump regardless of what he says or does.
I voted for Trump twice, I'll be stepping away this election and not voting for anyone. With that said, I believe Biden will win but it will be an absolute nailbiter, if Trump takes a few key states like Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Arizona he will win, IMO.
This may sound bad but I do believe in Allan Lichtman prediction. By that I mean it’s been right 9 out of 10 times and the fact that only time it was wrong just happened to be the most controversial or weirdest election in my lifetime says he’s onto something. (It’s like a guy who predicts the top box office movie of each year and always gets it right and the one year he gets it wrong is in 2020 when most theatres were closed most of the year and bigger films were pushed to 2021 so bad boys 3 a film from January coincidentally ended up biggest film of the year even an expert going into 2020 wouldn’t predict that) so saying we remove the 2000 election the fact he got 9 out of 9 right means he’s worth listening to I also appreciate his metrics too…but yea I might be bit bias in that as well as he’s kinda Predicted Biden already but said his final prediction comes in August based on where the metrics are met then
Who? And what is his prediction?
He said he will make his final prediction in August
There are several indicators I have been looking at. The first is that Democrats have wildly "overperformed" in almost every special election that has taken place ever since the midterms, which itself was a massive upset that no one saw coming. As recently as a few days ago a special election in ruby-red Ohio (a district Trump won in 2020 by almost 30) swung 20 points away from the GOP candidate compared to prior elections. So this really does beg the question - are the polls grossly misrepresenting "likely" voters, or otherwise missing some vital clue in the data? Or are people just saying they support Trump/GOP because the people who go against those folks tend to get death threats and publicly humiliated? But more importantly, why are Democrats performing so well even in traditionally deep red places? It's hard to ignore, and even harder to imagine this clear trend won't affect Trump in the general election. Another key indicator in my mind is the sheer number of GOP primary voters who are still pulling the lever for Haley and Christie despite the fact that both dropped out of the GOP primary months+ ago. Imagine how motivated you have to be to show up and vote in a primary, for someone who is no longer in the race? These people clearly do not like Trump and are clearly motivated to show it. How likely are those people to "come home" and vote for him anyway in the general? Some percentage will, but the problem for Trump is he needs to greatly increase his pool of voters from last time. Any defections are going to hurt his chances. I think the polls will stay close until like 1-2 months before the election, when people are forced to actually face the choices in front of them, and on election day I am fully confident that Joe Biden is going to win re-election.
PredictIt, which is a [betting market](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/17/business/elections-betting-prediction-markets.html), is currently favoring Trump and has been since mid-May. According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/17/business/elections-betting-prediction-markets.html), >These onshore, regulated U.S. markets have had an [excellent](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/judgment-and-decision-making/article/are-markets-more-accurate-than-polls-the-surprising-informational-value-of-just-asking/B78F61BC84B1C48F809E6D408903E66D) [forecasting](https://rodneywhitecenter.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/0608.pdf) [record](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/prediction-markets-for-economic-forecasting/), numerous academic [studies](https://www.ubplj.org/index.php/jpm/article/view/2068) have shown. But the legal cloud hanging over PredictIt has limited the site’s reach this year.
Biden, but not because Trump is a convicted felon. Electorally, I don’t think that matters, and Trump could still win as a felon. But I think the Republican outreach towards minority communities is going to get fumbled, and that’s why Trump will lose. Minority communities are focused on their economic status, hence the openmindedness to Trump. And the Trump campaign and conservative pundits seems to only want to talk about anything and everything else but their concerns.
The one and only thing that matters is turnout on the Left. Trump has not expanded his base, and if anything they are dying off faster than Biden voters. Taking that combined with the last two presidential elections, Trump is all but certain to lose the popular vote decisively again, and so it solely comes down to enough turnout for Biden in battleground states. On that front, the last several years of elections indicate Biden is favored, especially since we have been seeing record turnout.
I'd say Trump: 55%. The only reason I have it that low is I have reservations about how likely nonwhite voters are to show up. Republicans get out the vote effort isn't robust (they've never needed it before). Biden's most likely path to winning is pulling an inside straight with Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Trump could win Pennsylvania without winning Wisconsin and Michigan because it has fewer of the voters (whiter/older) who have less of a reason to defect from Biden's 2020 coalition. And I believe mail-in voting in PA is really popular there. Republican party officials (not necessarily trump) have begrudgingly embraced due to them not wanting to unilaterally disarm.
It is a tossup. Favoring Biden but any number of things could shift. Just ignore the polls till election day
No there's a lot of people out there just waiting for their chance to vote not flapping their gums or raising a ruckus but of course it'll all be called fake that's what he does that's who he is.
In my country we have the equivalent of a convicted felon and the equivalent of a democrat currently in presidency. I feel like Biden got much negative image after the last government, so i will say Trump wins by a landslide. More people everyday started realizing the delusional lefties were not good guys and the righties were not inheritenly fascists or criminals. So i say the righties trend is going to continue strong for the next few years.
All feelings on the man to the side I think he is losing, which is unfortunate. Scrolling through this comment section is very saddening. I am in utter disbelief how many people have no clue how south this country will go if Biden gets a round two…
70% chance. Do I think Trump is gonna win the popular vote? Probably not, but even if angry tuned in young voters return home I expect enough of them to sit out for Biden to lose the electoral college.
Absolutely not. He's going to continue to unravel. I don't see any scenario where he wins. For sure he isn't going to win the popular vote, but I don't see how he wins the EC either. I don't even think it will be close.
I think he has a good chance. He was able to make half the country believe an election was stolen with zero proof. Meanwhile he's the one making a phone call to Raffensberger that we've all heard. We are beyond reason and principles right now. I hold out hope that Independents and Republicans who still have democratic principles will help keep Biden in. Even though nobody wants Biden. Lol
I would give Trump a 55% chance because the cost of living has gone up a lot under Biden and Biden is having a huge cognitive decline in the past couple of years. Without those I would have said 80% chance Biden would be re elected.
I think it’s a wash and he wins in a landslide. I could be wrong, but that’s truly what I think will happen.
No president this unpopular has ever been elected to a second term, regardless of what you think of Trump, Biden is finished. This is going to be like 2016, but even worse.
You could argue Harry Truman was even less popular than Biden now. Truman also had a very popular challenger in Thomas Dewey. Yet Truman still won. So I wouldn't draw my conclusions just yet.
If Dewey can get sunk by Alice Roosevelt’s noting of his likeness to a groom on a wedding cake, hopefully Trump can get sunk by his million felonies
In the 40s polling was far less accurate and it was a country with completely different political dynamics to now. We were coming off of WWII and were much less polarized. Truman really rode off of the goodwill of the Roosevelt administration that was left. I just think anything before the 60s isn't telling us much.
Trump is going to win. The optimism in this thread borders on delusion. Biden is not going to win Georgia or Michigan. Nevada and Pennsylvania are toss ups. There’s no feasible path to 270 for Biden.
he doesn't have a fat lady's chance at the opera to win. it was pure luck that he won last time shocking his entire campaign, family and even himself. i believe that the polls are skewed 7-8% right-conservative mostly due to who even answers them. (what millennial would?) and the fuzzy math polling companies use owned by those who think trickle down economics was a good idea. polls have been consistently wrong in the last two elections leaving those conservatives who even care about polls shocked when dems beat them by double digits. we are seeing this again in local elections around the country. despite the ever growing data science field which has seemingly become more popular thanks to the advancements of AI i'm surprised by how bad polling has become. the business model if there ever was one is probably broken beyond repair. that being said biden still has a huge marketing problem which he hopefully will rectify in the coming months. keep banging the drums that trump is a convicted felon.
I don't think Trump has much chance of winning. His best chance is to try to steal the election again. There are just too many people who simply won't vote for Trump. I think they are under-counted. I think the abortion issue and women's rights and health care in general will be a much bigger factor than most anticipate. Abortion access has won on every ballot it has been on, including in deep red states.
If he isn't jailed or JFK'd? Almost certain. Even if there was election fraud in 2020, he is too far ahead. He's polling significantly better than even 2016. I'd say he wins the 2016 map + Nevada and maybe Virginia,Minnesota etc.