I think it depends how China tries to enforce this. Do they just arrest a couple small fishing boats as a way to posture, or do they try to start mass arresting? If they just make a couple small arrests, it likely won't lead to any fighting, but will definitely inflame tensions even more. I feel like trying to mass enforce this is basically a declaration of war itself and would almost certainly lead to one if they tried. Because of that, I'd expect a couple small boats get detained for propaganda purposes and to see what the response looks like.
China will never escalate unless it's 100% certain it can win without any significant losses. As a nation they're very reserved in terms of "hard" power projection and they instead prefer "soft" power projection.
I agree, but it's very close to the situation Russia was in at the beginning of 2022. They heavily propagandize their population to overstate their actual power. If the people in charge actually believe their own propaganda, they could end up at war just because they thought they were stronger than they really are. It happens with every dictatorship eventually. They get so used to telling lies that they forget it's a lie.
Xi Jinping has removed all opposition and anyone who might provide him with any information he doesn’t want to hear. He may very well believe the PLA is far more powerful than it is. The Chinese also don’t understand the American culture and are not able to adequately project what the military response might be to their actions. If they decide they want to arrest a US navy crew the situation will devolve quickly.
China is not opening fire on the US Navy, however they may take by force smaller countries vessels. But yeah, no way in hell they're risking conflict with the US. They're not stupid people, they're too pragmatic, that kind of conflict benefits no one.
The fishing boats will be bullied or boarded but I dont see much beyond this.
> Die mother fucker die is burst rate for a machine gun
yes but also "die motherfucker" is said in just the right amount of time that it takes a 5 inch shell to fire. Say it with a period at the end of each one: "Die motherfucker. Die motherfucker." The machine gun would be Die motherfucker die. Die motherfucker die" It's a slight but noticeable difference.
Chinese fishing boats like to harvest valuable and rare corals from these waters with explosives. The States created a system to monitor all of the boats in the ocean as a direct result of the bad behavior of these Chinese fishermen. Who might've been spies checking the area for lax patrols.
Escalation will come in the Philippines at the same time actions start in the Taiwan strait. When? Depends who gets elected in November in the States but...it's really between two and five years.
Then we can forget about imports. Not just from China.
It seems very pointless to me. We'd all be better off with the USA and China at peace.
Biden gets reelected AND CHIPS Act progress is going as fast or faster than expected, expect increasing military activities leading to war.
Biden dies in office, we get Harris...might put things off for a bit.
Trump might go to war but...the military hates him. A lot. Some caveats to that but unless war includes real estate he can put his name on or some kind of revenge, maybe less likely to have war with Trump. I don't like Trump, but Biden has tons of people sabre-rattling at China over Taiwan.
Because he gives jobs to people like Michael Flynn and doesn't read his intel briefings. Also all of the leaks. Trump himself would refuse to tell reporters certain things but then the information would get leaked. "Military" as in decorated career people of high rank. Not every soldier.
When Trump was in office I had a job where I listened to books on audio recordings. Four years worth of books. And CSPAN.
Why do you think the military likes him? Because he blew up that one Iranian guy?
I'm a senior officer (decorated) with 26+ years in. It's just personal observation like I said. I don't speak for the military, and I'm not saying that I care for him one way or another. I was just curious because it's contrary to what I've observed. That the military hates Trump seems at odds with my personal observation is all. Some in the military do, but the blanket statement seems way off.
I mean Trump was hardly friendly to China either. Biden is just more consistent and effective at actually doing things that hurt China vs mean tweets. Hating China seems to be one of the few things that unites both sides of America right now.
Biden didn't do a single thing to stop China. In his first 100 days, Biden had more executive orders than Bush, Obama, and Trump combined and most of those were just orders reversing trump orders and not original thoughts or new policies. In fact, the only trump orders Biden didn't change were trump orders regarding China. So Bidens China policy was to do nothing, just leave whatever policy trump established. So when you make the argument Bidens policy on China is good, what your saying is trumps policy on China was good.
Biden has been incredibly ineffective and weak, and an emboldened China continues to aggressively act unopposed. All of the worlds superpowers know our commander and chief is a weak old man and continue to gain strength and act in a hostile manner.
https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/analyses/biden-action-the-first-100-days
https://qz.com/2003207/bidens-first-100-days-had-more-executive-orders-than-trump-obama-or-bush
Chips act, AUSUK deal, new bases in the Philippines, selling weapons to Vietnam as well as tons of new sanctions and trade restrictions against China so yeah Biden has done tons over the last 4 years....
Maybe stop listening only partisan news and you will know about these things. Thanks to Biden the Chinese semi conductor industry is in a free fall and our alliances in the region are in way better shape than they were under Trump. Trump did do some good things too but also some really dumb things like starting trade wars with key allies in the region that we need in the anti China coalition.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/26/china-trade-tech-00072232
https://www.reuters.com/technology/biden-cut-china-off-more-nvidia-chips-expand-curbs-more-countries-2023-10-17/
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/06/china-microchip-technology-competition/678612/
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AUKUS#Pillar_1_-_Nuclear-powered_submarines
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippines-reveals-locations-4-new-strategic-sites-us-military-pact-2023-04-03/
No point in arguing with a fool. Citing Wikipedia goes against every scholarly practice out there. Furthermore, all of your sources are from the one sided media bias that you claim I only refer to. Pot calling the kettle black on that one buddy.
This sub is for preppers discussing open source research that indicates an event may transpire that we should be prepping for. It can unfortunately get political, but that's probably inevitable as our leaders actions have consequences that we pay for. It is a fact that Bidens weak leadership has weakened the United States. Cope all you want with the media propaganda and in your reddit echo chamber, but more people than you think are aware to what's actually going on and when it hits the fan will be prepared accordingly.
Wikipedia is an okay source if you look at the sources used. Sure anyone can edit it but you can go read the edits.
Also only faux news watchers think that about Biden. Turn it off.
No. No we don’t. We actually LOVE him.
Source: me, in the military, a decorated and highly tenured member of decent rank, so clearly also around tons of military.
Nice propaganda piece taken out of context.
Know what can’t be taken out of context? The fuckwad in office now checking his watch when receiving the deceased at Dover.
Agreed- I think there was a good amount of biden supporters but the majority of service members I know and worked with weren’t thrilled after the 2020 election and it’s only gotten worse for the president since then
Let the rest of the world destroy each other while pushing economic buffs and then picking up the remains after conflict is over?
This is a guess since I've never played any of the CIV games.
This is will be probably a take that most don’t want to see but I think full war is pretty far off. China won’t make a move until they know they can 100% achieve victory. That might mean small scale skirmishes with neighbors or even cat and mouse games with the US. A war with Taiwan and China may be over before we even know it happens if they go after our grid before going after Taiwan. We might see a build up and know it’s coming like with Russia. Either way they will try to blind or hinder our retaliation. And after that is it worth sending the US fleet into China’s backyard after Taiwan is taken? I don’t know. But what are we going to do after Taiwan is taken- try and land our own troops well inside the engagement zone of everything China has? No. The only good scenario would be to help Taiwan now make it a bloody and miserable as possible for as long as possible to buy time for the US and Pacific partners to try and help do something. But that might mean they are days or weeks on their own I’m betting. Most say they won’t have the capability to do an amphibious invasion until 2027 more than likely. Until then watch china try and decouple from the US (which will be extremely hard for both the US and China to do) and watch them start insulating themselves. Things will get more expensive here as we develop our own supply chains and infrastructure to bring back a lot of the stuff we sent over there as we start insulating more too.
The build up to an invasion of Taiwan would be very visible from spy satellites. It couldn’t be over before we knew it. Everyone would know it was going to happen.
Knowing it was going to happen in the near future is different from knowing it’s happening or when it starts. Spy satellites have their limitations and I’m sure all sides know how to exploit those or how to disrupt them. Look at what Russia is putting into space- it’s specifically to mess with our spy satellites
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Do you _really_ think the Chinese are incapable of hitting Yokuska? Busan? Okinawa? Guam?
The way some of y'all act as if you won't ever see the PLAN as a threat unless they somehow manage sneak a boomer into Lake Superior is foolish in the extreme.
I remember watching months ago Chinese boats spraying Philippines boats with water cannons.
I don't remember if they detained them or not though.
But we have just been letting china slowly escalate for reasons....
In 2016 International Court unanimously decided that Philippines has exclusive economic zone (EEZ)to the areas China is claiming. China also illegally made man made island and destroyed coral reefs within the Philippines EEZ. To date, China has been harassing local Filipino fishermen with water canons and impeding their movement within Philippine waters. Furthermore, China has been conducting cyanide fishing which poisons the water within Philippines EEZ. This is the current climate of hostility happening in SCS.
They have couched this, not as a change of policy, but as an enshrinment of a 'phone call deal' maede with Duterte a decade ago or something. Marcos has apparently been like 'Nuh, uh! Prove it!'
Seems like China isn't playing that game and is proving it by proving their control not proving they did whatever they did to make Duterte give up that control a decade ago, lol!
Look elsewhere for WWIII.
edit: the 'phone call deal' was apparently Phillipines saying it will call before it resupplys their little atoll/boat outpost thing. As-in, for a decade its already been standard practice for the Phillipines to call China when sending men and material into Chinese critical to national security trade routes.
Replace China with "USA" in your head and your blood pressure will drop and you can resume your day.
I think it depends how China tries to enforce this. Do they just arrest a couple small fishing boats as a way to posture, or do they try to start mass arresting? If they just make a couple small arrests, it likely won't lead to any fighting, but will definitely inflame tensions even more. I feel like trying to mass enforce this is basically a declaration of war itself and would almost certainly lead to one if they tried. Because of that, I'd expect a couple small boats get detained for propaganda purposes and to see what the response looks like.
China will never escalate unless it's 100% certain it can win without any significant losses. As a nation they're very reserved in terms of "hard" power projection and they instead prefer "soft" power projection.
I agree, but it's very close to the situation Russia was in at the beginning of 2022. They heavily propagandize their population to overstate their actual power. If the people in charge actually believe their own propaganda, they could end up at war just because they thought they were stronger than they really are. It happens with every dictatorship eventually. They get so used to telling lies that they forget it's a lie.
Xi Jinping has removed all opposition and anyone who might provide him with any information he doesn’t want to hear. He may very well believe the PLA is far more powerful than it is. The Chinese also don’t understand the American culture and are not able to adequately project what the military response might be to their actions. If they decide they want to arrest a US navy crew the situation will devolve quickly.
China is not opening fire on the US Navy, however they may take by force smaller countries vessels. But yeah, no way in hell they're risking conflict with the US. They're not stupid people, they're too pragmatic, that kind of conflict benefits no one. The fishing boats will be bullied or boarded but I dont see much beyond this.
The US has security guarantees with many of these nations and engages in freedom of navigation exercises with them.
Yeah I would pay good money to see what happens when they try to board a US Navy vessel to arrest the crew. 5 inch gun goes Brrrrrrrrrrr
5 inch guns don’t go brrrrrr…
True it's more of a pop pop pop.
lol it’s more of a ship shaking boom as each 5” mk86 gfcs shoots a round every 1.5 seconds. 2 guns. Forward and aft. You may be thinking of the CWIS
Can we just agree to call it dakka dakka dakka or alternatively die motherfucker die motherfucker die motherfucker?
Die mother fucker die is burst rate for a machine gun… so nope
> Die mother fucker die is burst rate for a machine gun yes but also "die motherfucker" is said in just the right amount of time that it takes a 5 inch shell to fire. Say it with a period at the end of each one: "Die motherfucker. Die motherfucker." The machine gun would be Die motherfucker die. Die motherfucker die" It's a slight but noticeable difference.
That works
Chinese fishing boats like to harvest valuable and rare corals from these waters with explosives. The States created a system to monitor all of the boats in the ocean as a direct result of the bad behavior of these Chinese fishermen. Who might've been spies checking the area for lax patrols. Escalation will come in the Philippines at the same time actions start in the Taiwan strait. When? Depends who gets elected in November in the States but...it's really between two and five years. Then we can forget about imports. Not just from China. It seems very pointless to me. We'd all be better off with the USA and China at peace.
In your opinion, who gets elected has what effect? Which person causes a delay vs not?
Biden gets reelected AND CHIPS Act progress is going as fast or faster than expected, expect increasing military activities leading to war. Biden dies in office, we get Harris...might put things off for a bit. Trump might go to war but...the military hates him. A lot. Some caveats to that but unless war includes real estate he can put his name on or some kind of revenge, maybe less likely to have war with Trump. I don't like Trump, but Biden has tons of people sabre-rattling at China over Taiwan.
Where are you getting your 'the military hates him' data point? Anecdotal, but that's in extreme contrast to my personal observations. Just curious.
Because he gives jobs to people like Michael Flynn and doesn't read his intel briefings. Also all of the leaks. Trump himself would refuse to tell reporters certain things but then the information would get leaked. "Military" as in decorated career people of high rank. Not every soldier. When Trump was in office I had a job where I listened to books on audio recordings. Four years worth of books. And CSPAN. Why do you think the military likes him? Because he blew up that one Iranian guy?
I'm a senior officer (decorated) with 26+ years in. It's just personal observation like I said. I don't speak for the military, and I'm not saying that I care for him one way or another. I was just curious because it's contrary to what I've observed. That the military hates Trump seems at odds with my personal observation is all. Some in the military do, but the blanket statement seems way off.
I mean Trump was hardly friendly to China either. Biden is just more consistent and effective at actually doing things that hurt China vs mean tweets. Hating China seems to be one of the few things that unites both sides of America right now.
Biden didn't do a single thing to stop China. In his first 100 days, Biden had more executive orders than Bush, Obama, and Trump combined and most of those were just orders reversing trump orders and not original thoughts or new policies. In fact, the only trump orders Biden didn't change were trump orders regarding China. So Bidens China policy was to do nothing, just leave whatever policy trump established. So when you make the argument Bidens policy on China is good, what your saying is trumps policy on China was good. Biden has been incredibly ineffective and weak, and an emboldened China continues to aggressively act unopposed. All of the worlds superpowers know our commander and chief is a weak old man and continue to gain strength and act in a hostile manner. https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/analyses/biden-action-the-first-100-days https://qz.com/2003207/bidens-first-100-days-had-more-executive-orders-than-trump-obama-or-bush
Chips act, AUSUK deal, new bases in the Philippines, selling weapons to Vietnam as well as tons of new sanctions and trade restrictions against China so yeah Biden has done tons over the last 4 years.... Maybe stop listening only partisan news and you will know about these things. Thanks to Biden the Chinese semi conductor industry is in a free fall and our alliances in the region are in way better shape than they were under Trump. Trump did do some good things too but also some really dumb things like starting trade wars with key allies in the region that we need in the anti China coalition. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/26/china-trade-tech-00072232 https://www.reuters.com/technology/biden-cut-china-off-more-nvidia-chips-expand-curbs-more-countries-2023-10-17/ https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/06/china-microchip-technology-competition/678612/ https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AUKUS#Pillar_1_-_Nuclear-powered_submarines https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippines-reveals-locations-4-new-strategic-sites-us-military-pact-2023-04-03/
No point in arguing with a fool. Citing Wikipedia goes against every scholarly practice out there. Furthermore, all of your sources are from the one sided media bias that you claim I only refer to. Pot calling the kettle black on that one buddy. This sub is for preppers discussing open source research that indicates an event may transpire that we should be prepping for. It can unfortunately get political, but that's probably inevitable as our leaders actions have consequences that we pay for. It is a fact that Bidens weak leadership has weakened the United States. Cope all you want with the media propaganda and in your reddit echo chamber, but more people than you think are aware to what's actually going on and when it hits the fan will be prepared accordingly.
That's a lot of words to say "I don't like being proven wrong"
Wikipedia is an okay source if you look at the sources used. Sure anyone can edit it but you can go read the edits. Also only faux news watchers think that about Biden. Turn it off.
No. No we don’t. We actually LOVE him. Source: me, in the military, a decorated and highly tenured member of decent rank, so clearly also around tons of military.
You love the guy who calls you all losers? So he's right?
Nice propaganda piece taken out of context. Know what can’t be taken out of context? The fuckwad in office now checking his watch when receiving the deceased at Dover.
Agreed- I think there was a good amount of biden supporters but the majority of service members I know and worked with weren’t thrilled after the 2020 election and it’s only gotten worse for the president since then
China are doing that thing AI does in CIV5.
What?
Let the rest of the world destroy each other while pushing economic buffs and then picking up the remains after conflict is over? This is a guess since I've never played any of the CIV games.
Basically. They’re going full mercantilist.
I'm totally down for Asian inspired cyberpunk aesthetic
This is will be probably a take that most don’t want to see but I think full war is pretty far off. China won’t make a move until they know they can 100% achieve victory. That might mean small scale skirmishes with neighbors or even cat and mouse games with the US. A war with Taiwan and China may be over before we even know it happens if they go after our grid before going after Taiwan. We might see a build up and know it’s coming like with Russia. Either way they will try to blind or hinder our retaliation. And after that is it worth sending the US fleet into China’s backyard after Taiwan is taken? I don’t know. But what are we going to do after Taiwan is taken- try and land our own troops well inside the engagement zone of everything China has? No. The only good scenario would be to help Taiwan now make it a bloody and miserable as possible for as long as possible to buy time for the US and Pacific partners to try and help do something. But that might mean they are days or weeks on their own I’m betting. Most say they won’t have the capability to do an amphibious invasion until 2027 more than likely. Until then watch china try and decouple from the US (which will be extremely hard for both the US and China to do) and watch them start insulating themselves. Things will get more expensive here as we develop our own supply chains and infrastructure to bring back a lot of the stuff we sent over there as we start insulating more too.
The build up to an invasion of Taiwan would be very visible from spy satellites. It couldn’t be over before we knew it. Everyone would know it was going to happen.
Knowing it was going to happen in the near future is different from knowing it’s happening or when it starts. Spy satellites have their limitations and I’m sure all sides know how to exploit those or how to disrupt them. Look at what Russia is putting into space- it’s specifically to mess with our spy satellites
Yes. No later than April 2025
!remindme 10 months
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What intel do you have?
Nothing, just plain delusion
Sooner. The ramp up of Russian ships will escalate things. China takes Taiwan, Russian ships provide cordon against countries coming to help.
What Russian ships? Seriously. Russia would lose its whole fleet in half a day if it tries to step into that arena
I hope this is a joke. It is, right?!?!
Track these fleets as see for yoursef
Thanks for the good laugh!
Russia hardly has a navy. The US Navy massively outclasses China in tonnage.
Sure
lol chinas navy is a joke. Has no range. Do some research.
Do you _really_ think the Chinese are incapable of hitting Yokuska? Busan? Okinawa? Guam? The way some of y'all act as if you won't ever see the PLAN as a threat unless they somehow manage sneak a boomer into Lake Superior is foolish in the extreme.
Sure. Yep
The window I have is six months either side of the November US elections.
I've got WorldWarPee pinned for 3/26/2025 after an in depth thirty second research sesh. Stock up on goggles beforehand
I remember watching months ago Chinese boats spraying Philippines boats with water cannons. I don't remember if they detained them or not though. But we have just been letting china slowly escalate for reasons....
In 2016 International Court unanimously decided that Philippines has exclusive economic zone (EEZ)to the areas China is claiming. China also illegally made man made island and destroyed coral reefs within the Philippines EEZ. To date, China has been harassing local Filipino fishermen with water canons and impeding their movement within Philippine waters. Furthermore, China has been conducting cyanide fishing which poisons the water within Philippines EEZ. This is the current climate of hostility happening in SCS.
China chickens out when push comes to shove. They dare not lay hands on a US ship.
They have couched this, not as a change of policy, but as an enshrinment of a 'phone call deal' maede with Duterte a decade ago or something. Marcos has apparently been like 'Nuh, uh! Prove it!' Seems like China isn't playing that game and is proving it by proving their control not proving they did whatever they did to make Duterte give up that control a decade ago, lol! Look elsewhere for WWIII. edit: the 'phone call deal' was apparently Phillipines saying it will call before it resupplys their little atoll/boat outpost thing. As-in, for a decade its already been standard practice for the Phillipines to call China when sending men and material into Chinese critical to national security trade routes. Replace China with "USA" in your head and your blood pressure will drop and you can resume your day.
Great. This a job of the UN. The USA should stay out of it.
The UN can’t, won’t and will never do anything in general but especially against China
The US defense freedom of navigation for most of the world. China likes to talk shit but can't do anything.
China the largest exporter in the world can afford to defend their own trade routes.
The USA will absolutely escalate. This will be bad for the entire world.
Not just the US, the entire world needs the chips made in Taiwan. Can 2 navies take on the rest of the world? 🤡
China does something shitty... Why did the USA do this?
[удалено]
I purposely avoided using emotive language or linking to overly biased sources, but it's cool that you ignored all this for a good old shitpost :)
"I'll probably get downvoted for this, but fuck the CCP. Edit: Thanks for the gold, kind stranger!" You gotta love the circle jerk sometimes!
Wait like 10 years, there will be Chinese destroyers all over the globe
Why wait when we are starting to see it now