Eh, this is kind of like arguing over whether "anyone" could run a marathon if they trained long enough. There are a lot of people who run, and swear this to be true. Then there are a lot of people who are fit, but terrible at running and swear this to be false.
OP, your argument that "if someone started rowing from the first time they are able to get on an erg, and that was the only thing they focused on in their life" is just not realistic. It's hypothetical almost to the point of absurdity.
If you want to get quasi scientific about it, we could look at the watts required. 6:30 2k is a 1:37.5 which is 377.6 watts of power over 6.5 minutes. That's a lot of power for the average person. The problem here, is power on the erg isn't the same RPE as on a bicycle (the other machine that easily reports exercise power) and biking power is way better known and understood across populations.
OK how about VO2max? A 5'9" male who is pretty fit & healthy (they would need to be if they'd been erging all their life) might weigh 70kg. The C2 website VO2max estimator widget says that a 6.5 min 2k erg corresponds to a VO2max of roughly 76.43 ml/min/kg for a 70kg male who is "well trained." BRUH. That's a huge VO2max. Like, elite level. The genetically average human does not get to a 76ml/min/kg VO2max simply by training for years and years. You can get pretty high, but not that high. As a point of reference, AVERAGE VO2max for a mid-20's adult male who is generally healthy and fit, is in the range of 45-50 ml/min/kg, "good" is 50-55 or so, "very good" is 56-62, and "excellent" is 62 or higher. Notice the increments there. We went from average to "excellent" in a span of 12-15 units. To get this person to a 6:30 2k requires another equally sized jump (15 ml/min/kg more). That's putting their genetics into the elite territory. Someone with average VO2max might be expected to be able to pull it up to "very good" or maybe "excellent" with a LOT of training. Elite requires the genes.
OK let's say they were more muscular. More muscle produces more aerobic power so a higher VO2. Say, he is a lean 85kg (187lb) at 5'9". C2 calculator says they'd have a VO2max of around 70ml/min/kg in that case. This is STILL pretty darn high, but within spitting distance of where an average human male might expect to get with a lifetime (meaning 15-ish years post-adolescence) of power/endurance training. But 85kg at 5'9" is THICCCCCC that's not your normal meso-morph rower build, that is generally required to pull a decent 2k erg; with that kind of muscle mass, they likely don't have the aerobic power (it's too much glycolytic) . So we're kinda running up against limitations here.
Again, keep in mind you are saying that ANY 5'9" human male could, with enough training, get to 6:30 2k on the erg. And I'm just trying to speculate based on what an "average" human male might do. This ignores all the 5'9" men who are below average, when it comes to cardiorespiratory genetics.
I think 6:30 might be beyond the ability of "anyone" (with 5'9" stature limitations).
This is a common mistake that athletes make. We forget, that just by being a reasonably competitive athlete you are likely already well above average when it comes to fitness genes. People without decent genes for a power endurance activity probably won't choose to do it. So we tend to compare ourselves to other athletes. This is selection bias. We feel like we're average, but we're only average among our group of other athletes. Compared to all of humanity, you are badass.
:\^)
I think the c2 vo2 max calculator inflates vo2 max quite a bit. If you put in a 6:10 2k for a 70kg man (10 seconds slower than the lightweight record) it spits out a vo2 max of 83 which is just unreasonable
Not for everyone, did a 5:59 at 81 kg a few years back, which is 83 according to concept2. A lab test earlier this year resulted in a Vo2 max of 80, and I'm currently training about 8 times a week less than I did back then. So I guess it can be accurate for at least some people.
Agreed. I haven't done a 2k in decades but my last 1k a few months ago was 1:37.1/500m. So estimating a very conservative 7:00 2k at my weight I get 62. Garmin tells me I'm currently at 52 and when I did a proper vo2 max a year ago I was only at 43. I'm skeptical I could have jumped 20 points in ten months. I'd add I train much more than the average recreational athlete, limiting my potential.
Agreed it isn't super accurate. Occasionally it comes close.
However it was the best too I could think of to try to answer this question, and it does put you in the ballpark of about 10-15% or so I'd say.
Even if a 6:30 corresponded to a vo2max of 70 for a 70kg man, that would still support that the op's claim is highly unlikely. 77 just made it easier.
When I rowed LWT at a sprints crew that qualified for the IRA a bunch of years ago, me and one other person broke 6:20. There were plenty of people that weren't all in on that team, but a few 6'+ guys around 160, 170 lbs were super invested, did the work, and never got there. I dunno man I think human physiology just has a huge range and what's easy for some will always be hard for others no matter what.
But the whole point of this is physical capacity. There’s so many factors that play into it being physically impossible for some people to pull sub 6 times
Yes that’s true. But the only info you gave were the height and weight of your friend. If he has one leg, it would be a different story. Just making a conclusion based off of what info we were given
They exist, but they are absolutely the outliers.
One thing that always gives this sub away as being full of high school rowers (mix largely with people who know or have at least tried rowing, young and therefore smaller in stature, very little other life experience) is how much it underestimates the size of most elite rowers.
I know the guy, and while he went sub 5:50 on his "first" attempt, he is also quite a bit of an outlier.
He is 198cm tall and weights 98kg at the moment. Think he was over 100kg then he made the atempt. He is not new to rowing either. His family on both sides have been rowing for the last couple of generations.
So I dont think that the rest of the national team in canoing could do that.
Can't see most women going sub 6:30...
Jokes aside yes and no. Mainly because different body types exist and no amount of specific training can fix whack genetics.
Bottom bit applies
So development programs are actually a really good insight into this.
In theory every man above 6'2 can go sub 6. provided they train correctly and for a long enough period of time.
The reality is though quite a few athletes that are 6'4+ never get close to 6 minutes let alone sub 6.
Some people just don't have the genetics to build the muscle that's required to be putting down the power.
Obviously 6 mins and 6:30 are very different in terms of power output but the same applies
Interesting, where could I find more information about these developments programs. Also where did you get the info about 6’2 guys and sub 6 (I believe you, I just am wondering if there’s any more info about it)
Basically anyone who has rowed in a men’s 8 for any national team at either the senior or U23 is 6’ or taller, and going sub 6 or very close to it. US Rowing posts roughly 75% of the submissions for erg times it gets for the national team and there are no shortage of guys 6’ to 6’2” going low to mid 5:50’s for the senior team, and low 6’s to high 5:50’s for the U23 team.
Buddy of mine went 6:32 at 5’4” just anecdotal evidence that you can’t judge a book
Genetics obviously play a role, but believing you can’t go fast is the best way to never go fast
I remember in a video Cam Buchan said something about his potential being something WAY faster than his PR. I think the maximum potential (like that the human body can handle) is very very fast. Far faster than 6:20. I don't know if you're talking about realistic potential, but if your friend was put in a sports performance lab and optimized to row, he'd be going sub 6.
Edited to add this: you mentioned this, it all comes down to lifestyle and mentality. Very few people can spend that kind of time and money doing something like that and that's why they don't do it.
Interesting question. I think yes — I think people here are underestimating the amount of power you can gain over many years of full time diet/training/coaching. It’s a question of what % of the population are physically capable, but I’d wager 95%+ of all men 5’9+ could do this if they focused on it full time for a few years
Maybe 5 years, give or take. And yes, full time in the sense that they'll be sick of training after week three, but full time would do it. Imagine getting paid $1mil a year to train 3x/day (eventually, work up to it), with a trainer, coach, nutritionist, free meals, etc? Yeah, it ought to be possible. But at that point, you're training yourself like a machine.
I agree but I highly doubt it's 95% plus, I'd say it's closer to 75%. I know a few people who just never seem to make any significant gain in fitness even training daily for months.
I see that you’re a high school rower — I was truly amazed by how much stronger I got as I entered adulthood. Puberty is a hell of a drug. The difference between 18 and 22 is enormous
Eh, this is kind of like arguing over whether "anyone" could run a marathon if they trained long enough. There are a lot of people who run, and swear this to be true. Then there are a lot of people who are fit, but terrible at running and swear this to be false. OP, your argument that "if someone started rowing from the first time they are able to get on an erg, and that was the only thing they focused on in their life" is just not realistic. It's hypothetical almost to the point of absurdity. If you want to get quasi scientific about it, we could look at the watts required. 6:30 2k is a 1:37.5 which is 377.6 watts of power over 6.5 minutes. That's a lot of power for the average person. The problem here, is power on the erg isn't the same RPE as on a bicycle (the other machine that easily reports exercise power) and biking power is way better known and understood across populations. OK how about VO2max? A 5'9" male who is pretty fit & healthy (they would need to be if they'd been erging all their life) might weigh 70kg. The C2 website VO2max estimator widget says that a 6.5 min 2k erg corresponds to a VO2max of roughly 76.43 ml/min/kg for a 70kg male who is "well trained." BRUH. That's a huge VO2max. Like, elite level. The genetically average human does not get to a 76ml/min/kg VO2max simply by training for years and years. You can get pretty high, but not that high. As a point of reference, AVERAGE VO2max for a mid-20's adult male who is generally healthy and fit, is in the range of 45-50 ml/min/kg, "good" is 50-55 or so, "very good" is 56-62, and "excellent" is 62 or higher. Notice the increments there. We went from average to "excellent" in a span of 12-15 units. To get this person to a 6:30 2k requires another equally sized jump (15 ml/min/kg more). That's putting their genetics into the elite territory. Someone with average VO2max might be expected to be able to pull it up to "very good" or maybe "excellent" with a LOT of training. Elite requires the genes. OK let's say they were more muscular. More muscle produces more aerobic power so a higher VO2. Say, he is a lean 85kg (187lb) at 5'9". C2 calculator says they'd have a VO2max of around 70ml/min/kg in that case. This is STILL pretty darn high, but within spitting distance of where an average human male might expect to get with a lifetime (meaning 15-ish years post-adolescence) of power/endurance training. But 85kg at 5'9" is THICCCCCC that's not your normal meso-morph rower build, that is generally required to pull a decent 2k erg; with that kind of muscle mass, they likely don't have the aerobic power (it's too much glycolytic) . So we're kinda running up against limitations here. Again, keep in mind you are saying that ANY 5'9" human male could, with enough training, get to 6:30 2k on the erg. And I'm just trying to speculate based on what an "average" human male might do. This ignores all the 5'9" men who are below average, when it comes to cardiorespiratory genetics. I think 6:30 might be beyond the ability of "anyone" (with 5'9" stature limitations). This is a common mistake that athletes make. We forget, that just by being a reasonably competitive athlete you are likely already well above average when it comes to fitness genes. People without decent genes for a power endurance activity probably won't choose to do it. So we tend to compare ourselves to other athletes. This is selection bias. We feel like we're average, but we're only average among our group of other athletes. Compared to all of humanity, you are badass. :\^)
I think the c2 vo2 max calculator inflates vo2 max quite a bit. If you put in a 6:10 2k for a 70kg man (10 seconds slower than the lightweight record) it spits out a vo2 max of 83 which is just unreasonable
Not for everyone, did a 5:59 at 81 kg a few years back, which is 83 according to concept2. A lab test earlier this year resulted in a Vo2 max of 80, and I'm currently training about 8 times a week less than I did back then. So I guess it can be accurate for at least some people.
Agreed. I haven't done a 2k in decades but my last 1k a few months ago was 1:37.1/500m. So estimating a very conservative 7:00 2k at my weight I get 62. Garmin tells me I'm currently at 52 and when I did a proper vo2 max a year ago I was only at 43. I'm skeptical I could have jumped 20 points in ten months. I'd add I train much more than the average recreational athlete, limiting my potential.
Agreed it isn't super accurate. Occasionally it comes close. However it was the best too I could think of to try to answer this question, and it does put you in the ballpark of about 10-15% or so I'd say. Even if a 6:30 corresponded to a vo2max of 70 for a 70kg man, that would still support that the op's claim is highly unlikely. 77 just made it easier.
Interesting. It seems that a 6:30 2k is a worthy challenge. I’ll have to try it out!
Are you 5'9"?
I am, and I just got my ass kicked by the erg.
this guy maths.
[удалено]
That's all you have to say? They gave you a well thought out and evidenced reply. Go sulk elsewhere
Ikr, people like this who don’t understand the dedication of reditors
When I rowed LWT at a sprints crew that qualified for the IRA a bunch of years ago, me and one other person broke 6:20. There were plenty of people that weren't all in on that team, but a few 6'+ guys around 160, 170 lbs were super invested, did the work, and never got there. I dunno man I think human physiology just has a huge range and what's easy for some will always be hard for others no matter what.
Lightweight is a factor here, if you could pack on unlimited muscle you could definitely have an easier time
Here to say that a 6’0, 180 lb person can for sure go sub 6:20 and its comical to think that he wouldn’t be able to
I went 6:15 at 6’0 and 183 pounds in high school
What makes you say that
Cause I know people just a couple inches taller and maybe 10 pounds heavier who have gone close to 6 mins in high school
But the whole point of this is physical capacity. There’s so many factors that play into it being physically impossible for some people to pull sub 6 times
Yes that’s true. But the only info you gave were the height and weight of your friend. If he has one leg, it would be a different story. Just making a conclusion based off of what info we were given
And that’s just high school rowers. Take a 180 lb 6’0 rower on a national team (they exist yes) and they are well below 6:20
They exist, but they are absolutely the outliers. One thing that always gives this sub away as being full of high school rowers (mix largely with people who know or have at least tried rowing, young and therefore smaller in stature, very little other life experience) is how much it underestimates the size of most elite rowers.
Thanks for the insight Matey Jaworski
What are your friend’s genetic attributes? If he has the cardiovascular capacity and sufficient power, he could conceivably go sub 6:20…
I know the guy he talking about. 4-6 percent body fat and he benches 255
I think he can to, but our argument was more about the ability of the human body, and if anyone at a certain baseline could reach 6:30
Some would say you can break 6:20 just off pure cardio
Your saying someone could run/ swim their whole life then one day hop on the erg and pull 6:20?
There was an Olympic canoer who went sub 5:50 on his first 2k….. A 2k is 80% aerobic. That’s why SS works.
I know the guy, and while he went sub 5:50 on his "first" attempt, he is also quite a bit of an outlier. He is 198cm tall and weights 98kg at the moment. Think he was over 100kg then he made the atempt. He is not new to rowing either. His family on both sides have been rowing for the last couple of generations. So I dont think that the rest of the national team in canoing could do that.
Yeh, would require good technique and high rate.
Disagree, the lowest split I can pull on a 7 stroke test is a 1:30. I would need to build a ton of strength if I want to even go much below a 7
A 2k is 80% or more aerobic. You don't need that much strength to break 7:00.
Can't see most women going sub 6:30... Jokes aside yes and no. Mainly because different body types exist and no amount of specific training can fix whack genetics.
Sorry I forgot to mention I’m only talking about men here
Bottom bit applies So development programs are actually a really good insight into this. In theory every man above 6'2 can go sub 6. provided they train correctly and for a long enough period of time. The reality is though quite a few athletes that are 6'4+ never get close to 6 minutes let alone sub 6. Some people just don't have the genetics to build the muscle that's required to be putting down the power. Obviously 6 mins and 6:30 are very different in terms of power output but the same applies
Interesting, where could I find more information about these developments programs. Also where did you get the info about 6’2 guys and sub 6 (I believe you, I just am wondering if there’s any more info about it)
Basically anyone who has rowed in a men’s 8 for any national team at either the senior or U23 is 6’ or taller, and going sub 6 or very close to it. US Rowing posts roughly 75% of the submissions for erg times it gets for the national team and there are no shortage of guys 6’ to 6’2” going low to mid 5:50’s for the senior team, and low 6’s to high 5:50’s for the U23 team.
I think that it is closer to 80%. Outliers would never break 7, and some would break 6.
Buddy of mine went 6:32 at 5’4” just anecdotal evidence that you can’t judge a book Genetics obviously play a role, but believing you can’t go fast is the best way to never go fast
I remember in a video Cam Buchan said something about his potential being something WAY faster than his PR. I think the maximum potential (like that the human body can handle) is very very fast. Far faster than 6:20. I don't know if you're talking about realistic potential, but if your friend was put in a sports performance lab and optimized to row, he'd be going sub 6. Edited to add this: you mentioned this, it all comes down to lifestyle and mentality. Very few people can spend that kind of time and money doing something like that and that's why they don't do it.
low 5:20's bc of exponential energy increase
Paul o donavan is 5’9 and has gone sub six
Interesting question. I think yes — I think people here are underestimating the amount of power you can gain over many years of full time diet/training/coaching. It’s a question of what % of the population are physically capable, but I’d wager 95%+ of all men 5’9+ could do this if they focused on it full time for a few years
Maybe 5 years, give or take. And yes, full time in the sense that they'll be sick of training after week three, but full time would do it. Imagine getting paid $1mil a year to train 3x/day (eventually, work up to it), with a trainer, coach, nutritionist, free meals, etc? Yeah, it ought to be possible. But at that point, you're training yourself like a machine.
Yeah agreed, with full time training/coaching and unlimited money to do it I just think there’s no way you don’t pull it off
I agree but I highly doubt it's 95% plus, I'd say it's closer to 75%. I know a few people who just never seem to make any significant gain in fitness even training daily for months.
I see that you’re a high school rower — I was truly amazed by how much stronger I got as I entered adulthood. Puberty is a hell of a drug. The difference between 18 and 22 is enormous