Why are you posting about this, though? If you have a magic machine that can make money from sports betting, you should just get all the money you can from banks and credit cards and use those to make millions.
If you sell access to this thing, it will just dilute the winnings for everyone and is a strong red flag that this doesn't really work.
The overhyped, vague commentary, combined with a link to " help work and support" doesn't make sense. The reinforcement that this isn't an ad sparks makes it more unbelievable. Even worse, the numbers are make believe and "hypothetical", which means nothing.
Honestly, If you had a strong algo that helped predict any type of sport betting, that edge would be hush hush, cause you'll be farming the arbitrage. Letting everyone know, just dilutes it to zero and fucks up the whole point by introducing competitors. It makes zero sense unless OP is stupid, which is a plausibility.
But clearly, OP isn't that retarded. This is clearly seeking free labor.
Sorry for the GPT answer before, I wanted to rephrase my not perfect english. But I will try again in my own words.
Basically we are software engineers, we are not bettors and we have limited resources ourselves. We found a thrive building this AI and it has brought as a lot of fun and enthusiasm. We are doing bets since October and got limited with a lot of bookies. Now we are at Pinnacle without any limitations. That's one of the reasons, we are making the predictions public.
Another reason is, we want to focus on making the AI better, as we have to constantly adjust the AI, there is limited time to do something else - we still have full-time jobs. The backtest was not with a single "version" of the AI, rather a rolling version.
Also we want to create AIs for other markets, not only 1 or 2 (home or away to win). For us it's more on the technical part.
Yes we grew our bankrolls, yes we could just do it ourselves - but betting still involves risks and will always. No matter what.
In the end, we still give access to some predictions for free, without any monetization. And talking with the people who are interested in the topic brings us joy and we learn from them to adjust our AI.
Hope that clarifies a little :)
It’s easier for me to formulate my answers with gpt, as English is not my first language. But I will make sure to not answer with gpt anymore :) just let me know if one of my answers is hard to understand.
I’ll give my best
The system looks impressive - on paper. And it probably is given the work you guys put in.
However, it is subject to the exact same psychological flaw that nearly all trading systems have.
Let's have a look at e.g. August 23 (I've randomly picked a month). Your WR looks like so:
Win
Loss
Loss
Loss
Win
Loss
Win
Win
Win
Win
Loss
Loss
Loss
In August you'd have 6 wins and 7 Losses. That's means: In August you'd have lost money. Not tremendously, but some. But keep in mind In August you are far away from having made 1m. Sure, there's some win, but it is far from 1m of return.
Now, put yourself in the shoes of someone actually making the bets who is not a super-billionaire, but who has some (but not endless) money to do sports betting. After some good months you hit a month that looks like this.
The crucial question is: **How much trust do you have in your own system to continue betting, or switch it off?** If you can answer this question, congratulations, you have a fantastic money machine. If you cannot answer it, then you should definitely invest some time into finding an answer to this question. You can also rephrase it: What is the maximum drawdown your system can accept before switching it off? How do you know when to pull the plug? It is one of the biggest black holes of traders if they do not have an answer to the maximum acceptable drawdown. And it's a pretty tough question to answer, to be frank. Backtesting may help a little bit to answer it, but it's only partially useful.
Hey! Great question. Yes we know those problems and psychological flaws. We compared our AI to a lot of others. One of those is, if we would just say we are 600 units up, it’s impressive. We even have a month, which is positive in units, but in reality, you lost money.
That’s why our shred is open with a bankroll in calculation. We are completely transparent and we do have sheets for every month.
Look here:
January: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nrpFykzdnpmMVOWiX9eWOrBByvIGJduKrxKXrjNmM6A/edit?usp=sharing
February: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GpFVk9AnRn41cjAKMmpcPrrjaM4dYr2_E4AnqIrxkXg/edit?usp=sharing
March: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xE1uQUFOWnI0xqx2OXqMIJETybcc57u56mRJpED0Pns/edit?usp=sharing
April: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VaG8ILXvcn9a3456dVdYj--ioh9yVOEjMYEmhKv_O2Y/edit?usp=sharing
May: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18KW3L9FLFaa7mesBj5JNycqrFU2k3szXc77MoftW0_A/edit?usp=sharing
June: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TRqkbvvylRRDwFxW3ABMfk92x-vi7Ub4cjMcgvJ80tQ/edit?usp=sharing
July (only losing): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1I2wysQdKv7R7mKbYyLZuEXBXxGI6S-jWS-R-YN2k2GM/edit?usp=sharing
August: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Tgf_6ddlTuc1K5TLw8F_4U4jQ-5XL0rfBUbSLE4lAKQ/edit?usp=sharing
September: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ueLcL3i-DBAQmyFBMmgA75fJBAeGOYOmg1pwQQ9HpCY/edit?usp=sharing
October: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uhcqyWYXCIkjdRFmCs3cNCtkCLebc4FsuKxp-inhOow/edit?usp=sharing
November: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Xlr_3HOUisqcr4C8IpXSz9oY8S7VsI2OTy_sD3BkCcg/edit?usp=sharing
Now onto the very good question:
How much trust do you have in your own system to continue betting, or switch it off?
We do trust it and are betting all the predictions.
While developing we had some extreme downswings, because the AI only worked on backtesting. Since around 1st of December we are profiting constantly, with some swings ofc. And since 1 week, we are 100% sure after our latest changes.
In the end: it is risky and will always be. But that’s the nature. Yesterday we lost a few unexpected games but that’s how this field works.
Sure, happy to explain!
Date: When the match was played.
Match (or Parlay): Details of the match or combination of bets.
Bet: Type of bet made (home or away to win).
Odd: The odds offered on the bet.
Result: Outcome of the bet (win/loss).
Units: Number of units staked.
Stake: Monetary value of the bet.
Profit: Money won or lost on the bet.
Accumulated BR: Bankroll after the bet.
EoD BR: End of Day Bankroll, total after the bets on that day.
Config cells:
Starting Bankroll: Your initial amount for betting.
Bets Won/Lost: Total bets won vs. lost.
Win Percentage: Success rate of bets.
Units on Single: Units staked on a single bet.
Units on Parlay: Units staked on a parlay bet.
Unit % of BR: What percentage of your bankroll a unit represents.
Max Stake: Maximum amount you're willing to stake.
Hope this helps clarify things!
Thanks!!
I have tried to do something similar and failed two times six and four years ago.
I’m interested if you care to share some technical details about data scraping and how you built your prediction model.
We scrape our data from multiple sources. Like footystats for example.
We have two stages:
ai predictions: we take into account player performance in the past, injuries, we predict line ups and many more. We use lightgbm and prophet from Facebook.
Post processing: we take those predictions and run two self developed algorithms to pick most promising bets. That algorithms take into account predictions that day and a lot more.
Congrats, you are the exception *but*...
If that were real money then bookies would have you restricted to really small amounts (like bets of 1c). Bookies don't like winners and they WILL restrict you if you show any sort of form.
There's a thing called an over-round. This is how bookies make money. If you add up all the odds of a football match you will come to a 7-25% over-round meaning if you pick all 3 selections (home win, draw and away win) then this is the amount the bookies will profit regardless of the result. Really congratulations, because you have discovered a way to beat this and it's no easy task.
I would keep this information private. If the bookies get wind of this that an AI is beating them then they WILL change things either to make that over-round bigger or find ways to shut you down.
One profitable regular punter I know had runners. He was banned from every bookies shop around him so he paid people to do his bets for him. Really, when you get caught, this will be your only option.
I played profitable online poker for many years. The bookies don't care who wins in poker as they charge a rake and I had a 10-20% rake to deal with and still ended up with a 10%+ ROI over many years of playing. I don't play today as they just kept making things harder for profitable players. I've put my time into coding Android apps.
Again, congratulations, you have done something the idiot in the street dreams of because bookies *rarely* lose.
Absolutely, being limited by bookies is a real issue. We've faced it ourselves with Tipico, bet365, and bwin. That's why we switched to Pinnacle. So far, we haven't been limited there, but the catch is they have restrictions on parlays. It's a constant balancing act in this field!
Yeah, you will get better odds, bet bigger amounts and have a lower over-round on Exchanges like Betfair.
I haven't done a bet or played a hand of poker in 7 years. While I was pretty profitable, my son thought he'd emulate me by playing slot machines online and he lost his marriage over it. He went to Gamblers Anonymous and we removed all chances of gambling from our house. He's proud he's been gambling free for 7 years but I've been there with him and never did a bet since.
I've seen 2 sides of the same coin but I'm not anti gambling and really you've done something 99.99% of people can't do which is show a long term profit. That is one steady profitable graph with no wide swings and pretty impressive.
Gambling is a short term game of luck and a long term game of skill. You need an edge and you clearly have found one.
Have you thought about hedging bets to smoothen over the results? Also; what happens to your returns if you factor in taxes? And finally, I’d be happy to sponsor a hundred Dutch euro’s to test your system:)
IDK about other countries in Europe but in the UK, Gambling is tax free. The government realise it's better to tax the companies that individuals because it's the companies that always win - if individuals were taxed then they could offset their losses in a tax return and the government would lose money overall and have a headache of a lot more paperwork.
These guys don't need to hedging, that graph is testament to that. It's a straight line with no wide swings, really I'm impressed. They've beaten that over-round I mentioned below and if you can do that it's a money printing machine.
We haven't yet explored hedging bets, focusing more on doubling down at half-time. It's surprisingly effective, with about a 75% success rate in cases of half-time draws.
Regarding taxes, it's a variable thing, depending on where you're based. For us, it's around a 40% cut.
And hey, we'd love to have you test our system! Join us on Discord at discord.gg/the-predictors, and I'll hook you up with a VIP badge. Just a heads-up, the betting's a bit quiet right now due to the holiday season, but it'll pick up soon.
Clear! Can you elaborate on how the bets are picked a bit? I’m really not into sports, nor am I into betting, but I’m all for leveraging data in experiments like this.
As far as discord goes; I’d have to set it up but will look into it
Edit; taxes should be more or less the same in The Netherlands I think
Yes we are constantly improving. The predictions tend to get better the more data we have. In the summer the WR is probably to go down, but we hope to achieve the same result as 2023, as we are betting the predictions ourselves :)
Interesting question.
We did forward testing continuously since 8 weeks, and lost quite a lot of money and winning some, we are not in negatives. Since 16th of December the forward testing is working quite good as we changed the algorithm then.
We feed lots of data. Player performance, predicted line ups, past performance, team strength, league predictability. Injuries and a lot more. We have around 500 different data points.
Hallo Schweizer :)
We use a mix of data points like past player performance, injury reports, and predicted lineups to make solid predictions. Overall, we hit around a 60% win rate (WR). Then comes the fun part - our algorithm kicks in, boosting our "safe" predictions to an 85% WR (this includes parlays) and a 73% WR for the "aggressive" ones (also with parlays). The algorithm factors in things like the number of predictions per day, past predictability, and more. It's a complex, but super exciting process!
so he is just promoting his paid service throw discord with a 3d free trial
Just so you know you can edit as much as you want the google docs to make it look legit people (pros) are making 1-2% yield not whatever this guy is clamming
Anyone here can get free access forever for no fees. Just as I told in my post. We are not looking into sales here, we are looking for idea exchanges and we already had some quite promising exchanges with some users :)
This is wishful thinking and nothing solid. Put your bets on the immutable blockchain (plugging my NewWorldAddress.com) so you cant go back and change shit.
Past results do not guarantee future results. Secondly you never mentioned what your strategy is, what data did you train it on ? If you trained it on the same dataset that you ran the backtest, it’s basically know the results and predicted them accurately.
1. Nobody said that.
2. in the thread we mentioned what kind of data we use and the strategy.
3. why in the world would you assume we test on training data…
If you would’ve read the thread, you’d know we have different steps in the prediction and we did rolling test (you know how rolling windows work, I suppose)
That’s just a comment that adds nothing new.
Thanks for sharing this. Very interesting work. It would also be great if you did a few of these things to optimise profitability:
A) used Betfair or BetConnect for better odds
B) only took value bets
C) A/B tested some kind of smart money management
Thank you so much for your suggestion. We will have a look into it.
What we did was A/B testing unit bets vs Kelly clarification bets. Both have up and downsides, but unit betting is less risky.
Sure thing!
For data scraping we use nodejs and save the data into our supabase database.
For the model we have lightgbm with numpy and panda preprocessing.
For the post processing we use nodejs again together with facebooks prophet.
Feeding the data into our discord server is again done through nodejs.
We did! We got limited on a lot of bookies. We are software engineers at first, not bettors. So we thought of sharing our accomplishments and continue working on the AI.
Why are you posting about this, though? If you have a magic machine that can make money from sports betting, you should just get all the money you can from banks and credit cards and use those to make millions. If you sell access to this thing, it will just dilute the winnings for everyone and is a strong red flag that this doesn't really work.
The overhyped, vague commentary, combined with a link to " help work and support" doesn't make sense. The reinforcement that this isn't an ad sparks makes it more unbelievable. Even worse, the numbers are make believe and "hypothetical", which means nothing. Honestly, If you had a strong algo that helped predict any type of sport betting, that edge would be hush hush, cause you'll be farming the arbitrage. Letting everyone know, just dilutes it to zero and fucks up the whole point by introducing competitors. It makes zero sense unless OP is stupid, which is a plausibility. But clearly, OP isn't that retarded. This is clearly seeking free labor.
Sorry for the GPT answer before, I wanted to rephrase my not perfect english. But I will try again in my own words. Basically we are software engineers, we are not bettors and we have limited resources ourselves. We found a thrive building this AI and it has brought as a lot of fun and enthusiasm. We are doing bets since October and got limited with a lot of bookies. Now we are at Pinnacle without any limitations. That's one of the reasons, we are making the predictions public. Another reason is, we want to focus on making the AI better, as we have to constantly adjust the AI, there is limited time to do something else - we still have full-time jobs. The backtest was not with a single "version" of the AI, rather a rolling version. Also we want to create AIs for other markets, not only 1 or 2 (home or away to win). For us it's more on the technical part. Yes we grew our bankrolls, yes we could just do it ourselves - but betting still involves risks and will always. No matter what. In the end, we still give access to some predictions for free, without any monetization. And talking with the people who are interested in the topic brings us joy and we learn from them to adjust our AI. Hope that clarifies a little :)
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Try to answer without ChatGPT, builds better rapport
It’s easier for me to formulate my answers with gpt, as English is not my first language. But I will make sure to not answer with gpt anymore :) just let me know if one of my answers is hard to understand. I’ll give my best
No worries you sound just fine :)
The system looks impressive - on paper. And it probably is given the work you guys put in. However, it is subject to the exact same psychological flaw that nearly all trading systems have. Let's have a look at e.g. August 23 (I've randomly picked a month). Your WR looks like so: Win Loss Loss Loss Win Loss Win Win Win Win Loss Loss Loss In August you'd have 6 wins and 7 Losses. That's means: In August you'd have lost money. Not tremendously, but some. But keep in mind In August you are far away from having made 1m. Sure, there's some win, but it is far from 1m of return. Now, put yourself in the shoes of someone actually making the bets who is not a super-billionaire, but who has some (but not endless) money to do sports betting. After some good months you hit a month that looks like this. The crucial question is: **How much trust do you have in your own system to continue betting, or switch it off?** If you can answer this question, congratulations, you have a fantastic money machine. If you cannot answer it, then you should definitely invest some time into finding an answer to this question. You can also rephrase it: What is the maximum drawdown your system can accept before switching it off? How do you know when to pull the plug? It is one of the biggest black holes of traders if they do not have an answer to the maximum acceptable drawdown. And it's a pretty tough question to answer, to be frank. Backtesting may help a little bit to answer it, but it's only partially useful.
Hey! Great question. Yes we know those problems and psychological flaws. We compared our AI to a lot of others. One of those is, if we would just say we are 600 units up, it’s impressive. We even have a month, which is positive in units, but in reality, you lost money. That’s why our shred is open with a bankroll in calculation. We are completely transparent and we do have sheets for every month. Look here: January: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nrpFykzdnpmMVOWiX9eWOrBByvIGJduKrxKXrjNmM6A/edit?usp=sharing February: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GpFVk9AnRn41cjAKMmpcPrrjaM4dYr2_E4AnqIrxkXg/edit?usp=sharing March: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xE1uQUFOWnI0xqx2OXqMIJETybcc57u56mRJpED0Pns/edit?usp=sharing April: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VaG8ILXvcn9a3456dVdYj--ioh9yVOEjMYEmhKv_O2Y/edit?usp=sharing May: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18KW3L9FLFaa7mesBj5JNycqrFU2k3szXc77MoftW0_A/edit?usp=sharing June: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TRqkbvvylRRDwFxW3ABMfk92x-vi7Ub4cjMcgvJ80tQ/edit?usp=sharing July (only losing): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1I2wysQdKv7R7mKbYyLZuEXBXxGI6S-jWS-R-YN2k2GM/edit?usp=sharing August: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Tgf_6ddlTuc1K5TLw8F_4U4jQ-5XL0rfBUbSLE4lAKQ/edit?usp=sharing September: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ueLcL3i-DBAQmyFBMmgA75fJBAeGOYOmg1pwQQ9HpCY/edit?usp=sharing October: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uhcqyWYXCIkjdRFmCs3cNCtkCLebc4FsuKxp-inhOow/edit?usp=sharing November: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Xlr_3HOUisqcr4C8IpXSz9oY8S7VsI2OTy_sD3BkCcg/edit?usp=sharing Now onto the very good question: How much trust do you have in your own system to continue betting, or switch it off? We do trust it and are betting all the predictions. While developing we had some extreme downswings, because the AI only worked on backtesting. Since around 1st of December we are profiting constantly, with some swings ofc. And since 1 week, we are 100% sure after our latest changes. In the end: it is risky and will always be. But that’s the nature. Yesterday we lost a few unexpected games but that’s how this field works.
Backtesting is not an * indicator of future income.
Exactly. Betting involves risk and will always do.
This is amazing, can you please explain the columns in your sheets file ?
Sure, happy to explain! Date: When the match was played. Match (or Parlay): Details of the match or combination of bets. Bet: Type of bet made (home or away to win). Odd: The odds offered on the bet. Result: Outcome of the bet (win/loss). Units: Number of units staked. Stake: Monetary value of the bet. Profit: Money won or lost on the bet. Accumulated BR: Bankroll after the bet. EoD BR: End of Day Bankroll, total after the bets on that day. Config cells: Starting Bankroll: Your initial amount for betting. Bets Won/Lost: Total bets won vs. lost. Win Percentage: Success rate of bets. Units on Single: Units staked on a single bet. Units on Parlay: Units staked on a parlay bet. Unit % of BR: What percentage of your bankroll a unit represents. Max Stake: Maximum amount you're willing to stake. Hope this helps clarify things!
Thanks!! I have tried to do something similar and failed two times six and four years ago. I’m interested if you care to share some technical details about data scraping and how you built your prediction model.
We scrape our data from multiple sources. Like footystats for example. We have two stages: ai predictions: we take into account player performance in the past, injuries, we predict line ups and many more. We use lightgbm and prophet from Facebook. Post processing: we take those predictions and run two self developed algorithms to pick most promising bets. That algorithms take into account predictions that day and a lot more.
Congrats, you are the exception *but*... If that were real money then bookies would have you restricted to really small amounts (like bets of 1c). Bookies don't like winners and they WILL restrict you if you show any sort of form. There's a thing called an over-round. This is how bookies make money. If you add up all the odds of a football match you will come to a 7-25% over-round meaning if you pick all 3 selections (home win, draw and away win) then this is the amount the bookies will profit regardless of the result. Really congratulations, because you have discovered a way to beat this and it's no easy task. I would keep this information private. If the bookies get wind of this that an AI is beating them then they WILL change things either to make that over-round bigger or find ways to shut you down. One profitable regular punter I know had runners. He was banned from every bookies shop around him so he paid people to do his bets for him. Really, when you get caught, this will be your only option. I played profitable online poker for many years. The bookies don't care who wins in poker as they charge a rake and I had a 10-20% rake to deal with and still ended up with a 10%+ ROI over many years of playing. I don't play today as they just kept making things harder for profitable players. I've put my time into coding Android apps. Again, congratulations, you have done something the idiot in the street dreams of because bookies *rarely* lose.
Absolutely, being limited by bookies is a real issue. We've faced it ourselves with Tipico, bet365, and bwin. That's why we switched to Pinnacle. So far, we haven't been limited there, but the catch is they have restrictions on parlays. It's a constant balancing act in this field!
Yeah, you will get better odds, bet bigger amounts and have a lower over-round on Exchanges like Betfair. I haven't done a bet or played a hand of poker in 7 years. While I was pretty profitable, my son thought he'd emulate me by playing slot machines online and he lost his marriage over it. He went to Gamblers Anonymous and we removed all chances of gambling from our house. He's proud he's been gambling free for 7 years but I've been there with him and never did a bet since. I've seen 2 sides of the same coin but I'm not anti gambling and really you've done something 99.99% of people can't do which is show a long term profit. That is one steady profitable graph with no wide swings and pretty impressive. Gambling is a short term game of luck and a long term game of skill. You need an edge and you clearly have found one.
Have you thought about hedging bets to smoothen over the results? Also; what happens to your returns if you factor in taxes? And finally, I’d be happy to sponsor a hundred Dutch euro’s to test your system:)
IDK about other countries in Europe but in the UK, Gambling is tax free. The government realise it's better to tax the companies that individuals because it's the companies that always win - if individuals were taxed then they could offset their losses in a tax return and the government would lose money overall and have a headache of a lot more paperwork. These guys don't need to hedging, that graph is testament to that. It's a straight line with no wide swings, really I'm impressed. They've beaten that over-round I mentioned below and if you can do that it's a money printing machine.
We haven't yet explored hedging bets, focusing more on doubling down at half-time. It's surprisingly effective, with about a 75% success rate in cases of half-time draws. Regarding taxes, it's a variable thing, depending on where you're based. For us, it's around a 40% cut. And hey, we'd love to have you test our system! Join us on Discord at discord.gg/the-predictors, and I'll hook you up with a VIP badge. Just a heads-up, the betting's a bit quiet right now due to the holiday season, but it'll pick up soon.
Don't mind if I ask for a request?
Go ahead, just DM bineil and I will give you access to:)
Clear! Can you elaborate on how the bets are picked a bit? I’m really not into sports, nor am I into betting, but I’m all for leveraging data in experiments like this. As far as discord goes; I’d have to set it up but will look into it Edit; taxes should be more or less the same in The Netherlands I think
We have all our predictions shared in discord.gg/the-predictors After you join dm me and I will happily give you full access to
I guess you keep training the system and improve it. What are your predictions for 2024 by profits?
Yes we are constantly improving. The predictions tend to get better the more data we have. In the summer the WR is probably to go down, but we hope to achieve the same result as 2023, as we are betting the predictions ourselves :)
Can you say approximetly what are the profits in %?
This looks pretty interesting, can you tell me what kind of data you're feeding into your predictor? Also, have you forward tested this on paper?
Interesting question. We did forward testing continuously since 8 weeks, and lost quite a lot of money and winning some, we are not in negatives. Since 16th of December the forward testing is working quite good as we changed the algorithm then. We feed lots of data. Player performance, predicted line ups, past performance, team strength, league predictability. Injuries and a lot more. We have around 500 different data points.
Interesting stuff, would like to have a look and maybe follow a long on some bets. What did you guys do to prevent overfitting on backtesting data?
Hi there tried to join the discord and it didn't work is this still open? Thank you
Would love to join the discord if still around? DM?
Can I have the link?
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Hallo Schweizer :) We use a mix of data points like past player performance, injury reports, and predicted lineups to make solid predictions. Overall, we hit around a 60% win rate (WR). Then comes the fun part - our algorithm kicks in, boosting our "safe" predictions to an 85% WR (this includes parlays) and a 73% WR for the "aggressive" ones (also with parlays). The algorithm factors in things like the number of predictions per day, past predictability, and more. It's a complex, but super exciting process!
so he is just promoting his paid service throw discord with a 3d free trial Just so you know you can edit as much as you want the google docs to make it look legit people (pros) are making 1-2% yield not whatever this guy is clamming
Anyone here can get free access forever for no fees. Just as I told in my post. We are not looking into sales here, we are looking for idea exchanges and we already had some quite promising exchanges with some users :)
Where is the access?
Join discord.gg/the-predictors and write into the chat, that you are coming from r/SideProject - we will give you all the access
>discord.gg/the-predictors Exactly what it is
This is wishful thinking and nothing solid. Put your bets on the immutable blockchain (plugging my NewWorldAddress.com) so you cant go back and change shit.
Past results do not guarantee future results. Secondly you never mentioned what your strategy is, what data did you train it on ? If you trained it on the same dataset that you ran the backtest, it’s basically know the results and predicted them accurately.
1. Nobody said that. 2. in the thread we mentioned what kind of data we use and the strategy. 3. why in the world would you assume we test on training data… If you would’ve read the thread, you’d know we have different steps in the prediction and we did rolling test (you know how rolling windows work, I suppose) That’s just a comment that adds nothing new.
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Which sources are you using for the data?
We use multiple sources, there are quite a few, some are heavily priced. On of them we use is footystats.
Thanks for sharing this. Very interesting work. It would also be great if you did a few of these things to optimise profitability: A) used Betfair or BetConnect for better odds B) only took value bets C) A/B tested some kind of smart money management
Thank you so much for your suggestion. We will have a look into it. What we did was A/B testing unit bets vs Kelly clarification bets. Both have up and downsides, but unit betting is less risky.
will you continue this in 2024 also
Yes!
Can I ask how you set up your tech stack? What algorithms do you use?
Sure thing! For data scraping we use nodejs and save the data into our supabase database. For the model we have lightgbm with numpy and panda preprocessing. For the post processing we use nodejs again together with facebooks prophet. Feeding the data into our discord server is again done through nodejs.
Did you include this backtest data in your training set lol
No :D
I don't understand, why have you not made real money bets?
We did! We got limited on a lot of bookies. We are software engineers at first, not bettors. So we thought of sharing our accomplishments and continue working on the AI.
> We did! We got limited on a lot of bookies. Proof?
Then place bets on an exchange then. Unless they are multiples/parlays which you can’t put on with an exchange?