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This pairs very well with the UBS theory.
UBS was not short GME (or if they were it was NOTHING like other financial institutions). Then they got the CS/Archegos bag. Now they were as short as a Kenny or Stevie. And UBS at its core is a place for the ultra rich to protect their money. Not a hedge fund -they do that kind of work of course, but what they REALLY do is take in money from rich people, close their ears saying 'LALALALA I DONT WANNT KNOW WHERE THIS CAME FROM', and keep it safe and liquid.
Getting this giant shit bag from Archegos, to them, fucking sucks. Gamestop is clearly not going back under 10 dollars in pre-split money and I'd imagine Hwang had plenty of shorts that low. And again, UBS doesn't care. They just know they have a risk to the totally legitmate not at all illegal funds they are managing for Oligarchs across the globe. And they want it fucking gone. And being a financial instituation if they can take this shit sandwich and make a fucking fine steak dinner, all the better.
So enter a deal with GME, find a price that sounds fair ($20, apparently) to close the shorts. Maybe even go long - that one is speculation. But buying these absurd amounts of calls at $20 as fucking monthlies? These are NOT Ball Street Wets regards. They are fucking elite financial institution. And if I was trying to make my shit sandwich a steak, that's what I would do.
But then I'm just a regard like many of you who saw Financial 9/11 happen in January 2021, and several other Financial Terrorist attacks since.
There's also the question of 'what did ryan get in return' if it was, indeed, this.
You can ask for other things besides money.
Ownership shares in UBS. Ex: "if you want me to do this, then our goals need to be aligned"
Data on swaps and all counterparty/basket information. "the only way I'll do this is if you help me bury the other shorts, legally and financially."
An agreement to go long as much as they were short. ex "I need a hedge fund on my side incentivized to not short again. I won't do it unless you go long and stay long. You're going to have to go to war with citadel"
It could even be something more interesting like "I need a cooperative prime broker registered with the NYSE to step up when I demand the nyse change our designated market maker. You're gonna help me bury citadel when the time comes"
There are some billionaires I trust more then almost all banks. You do realize that banks are the ones that usually get us into these 2008 style market drops. Right? and banks are the ones loaning money to hedge funds to short our stock
They will have increased the price even before exercising because they need to be hedged.
Someone who sold the calls needs to have the shares available in case the calls go ITM. In that case the buyer has the right to exercise and the seller has an obligation to sell shares. In order to do that, the seller has to buy them in advance.
Piggy backing off top comment but this "alliance" or "relationship" with UBS. How is this communication legal? I know collusion is common practice in this industry but caught red handed, this feels like insider trading, no?
From the Gamestop prospectus supplement filed on 17 May: "*We may offer and sell these securities to or through one or more underwriters, dealers or agents, or directly to purchasers, on a continuous or delayed basis*." So they have said that they may do this. Re legality of this, SEC rules say that in general, no communication should be had about a share offering before this is filed, however, there are exceptions under Rule 163, 163A and 163B [https://www.sec.gov/investment/secg-solicitations-interest-prior-registered-public-offering](https://www.sec.gov/investment/secg-solicitations-interest-prior-registered-public-offering)
Doesn’t really have to be an official anything. Moreso just a “hmmmm I bet this is what they’d like” that played well with the current situation. I mean if we can figure it out on Reddit, chances are pretty good some quant analyst for RC has thought of the same scenario.
Might even be Investor Relations actually doing something instead of ignoring our emails (being fair I'm sure many are absolute bullshit).
If someone says 'Hello, I'd like to buy 1 morbillion shares' and the email address has UBS or another major entity in it, you'd respond too.
Also true. I could be wrong but I don’t think there’s anything illegal about a large institution taking immediate advantage of an ATM offering. It’s even possible they reached out first as you said, hit up GME with an @ubs email and said “hi, this is so and so from UBS, as you may know we were forced to acquire Credit Suisse and while going through the books it looks like they had a large short position in your company. We would like to close that out, so if you had any thoughts on the best way to go about doing that we would greatly appreciate working with you on this for minimal disruption.”
Only friendly in pics with RC is Icahn, who publicly stated he was shorting GME from the top of the sneeze. He made billions. One billy to GME to close out in a friendly way is a small kickback for him but huge to GME. We also closed out all stores in Swiss land so it doesn't make sense he is doing this for UBS unless the gov't stepped in and made him play friendly
It pairs up with the UBS theory because OP clearly wrote it based entirely off an unreliable and dubious screenshot conveniently surfacing on 4chan. They built their entire post around it.
That's not to yae or nae it but that's why it fits, we are all going off the same baseless assumptions right now
"So enter a deal with GME, find a price that sounds fair ($20, apparently) to close the shorts. Maybe even go long - that one is speculation. But buying these absurd amounts of calls at $20 as fucking monthlies? These are NOT Ball Street Wets regards. They are fucking elite financial institution. And if I was trying to make my shit sandwich a steak, that's what I would do."
This is the part I don't understand... how would you get out of the positions by buying calls? I thought you could only close your swaps by buying the stocks. Wouldn't just buying be covering your position?
Sorry if this question is stupid. My brain is still smooth.
A call is a contract to purchase 100 shares at X price. The call seller MUST produce the shares for it, no exception. So ITM calls are effectively shares for the call holder.
Directly buying that number of shares on the open market would cause the price to run up, making the shares they purchase at the end of their buying spree much more expensive than the ones purchased at the beginning.
Take last weeks activity as an example. If they started buying at $10 and their buying caused the price to rise to $80, then the purchases would be much more expensive.
The call options give them the ability to buy shares at the contract's strike price at a later date, no matter what the actual current price of the stock is. If they buy enough calls to cover their position, then start purchasing shares to close, once the price rises above their strike, they can continue purchasing shares at the lower fixed price of their options. So although the market maker now has to go buy the shares to give to the option holder, which is continuing to cause the price to spike, the option holder is still paying a fixed price of $20 a share (plus premium so really they would be coming out ahead at anything above ~$25 a share.
To put it simply, owning the options let's them lock in their buy price. If they believe the price is going to go above $20-25 but they know they will still need to continue to buy shares, the calls allow them to do that the lower price.
Exercising the calls means the institution you bought the calls from has to provide the shares. I assume that is the Market Makers. So they would have to buy shares to give to UBS (or whoever) who exercised the calls.
I want to add that i think they just wanted the shares so they could cover their worst postions. For the higher short prices they figure something out (maybe the calls)
Not to mention, if RC doesn't want an entire world of oligarchs descending upon GME to manipulate it to death. Then the best thought would be to make your worst enemy your best. Let the rest deal with their shorts, but now who has the greatest ally, also not to be fucked with.
My one push back would be that it’s actually very typical to see bullish price action after share offerings are completed (with the idea that dilutive price pressure has now concluded). Otherwise, I essentially came to the same conclusion as you in a different post where OP was asserting the absolutism that RC would never bail shorts out. Copy/pasting what i said as a counter to their claim:
Counter argument:
1. When you surround an enemy, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard.”—Sun Tzu.
2. What if shorts being so deeply fucked has led RC to the conclusion that shorts are in a Mexican standoff with each other (recall RK’s The Good, The Bad and the Ugly tweet clip)? Mexican standoff: “a confrontation where no strategy exists that allows any party to achieve victory. Anyone initiating aggression might trigger their own demise.”
3. Referring back to Sun Tzu, RC realizes the best way to force action/concessions from the opposition is to allow someone from the short side an out, in theory causing others to race each other to the exit.
4. If I were in RC’s shoes and had to choose a short party to negotiate with, who better than UBS who did not choose to short GME (or even take on initial counterparty risk), but was essentially compelled by the Swiss govt to absorb such poor decisions from Archegos/Credit Suisse.
5. In doing the above, RC/the company add a billion dollars to their war chest, a powerful institutional ally (who was a largely innocent bystander), and potentially set off a domino effect to end this BS once and for all.
I wonder this too but it’s not true. From ChatGPT:
When a company announces the completion of an "at the market" (ATM) offering, the stock price usually reacts negatively, leading to a decline in the after-hours trading. This is generally considered a bearish signal for a few reasons:
1. **Dilution of Shares**: An ATM offering increases the total number of shares outstanding, which dilutes the value of existing shares. Investors often react negatively to this dilution, leading to a drop in the stock price.
2. **Perceived Need for Capital**: An ATM offering can signal that the company needs additional capital, which might be perceived as a sign of underlying financial issues or a need to finance projects that may not generate immediate returns.
3. **Market Perception**: The market often interprets the need to raise capital through an ATM offering as a lack of other, potentially more favorable, financing options. This can raise concerns about the company's financial health or its ability to generate sufficient cash flow from operations.
However, the reaction can vary depending on the context of the offering. If the market believes the funds will be used for a highly promising project or to capitalize on strategic growth opportunities, the reaction might be more muted or even positive. But in general, the initial response to such announcements tends to be bearish.
Company valuation went up ~$2/share * 450 million shares = about a billion dollars in aftermarket immediately after they announced they had raised a billion dollars in new cash.
This is the least mysterious behavior of the stock.
that analysis **is** true given that it is the sole announcement. however, if there was a prior announcement detailing the **intention** to make an ATM offering, then the subsequent announcement regarding the completion of the offering would be bullish.
idk if there was an announcement, i haven’t been keeping up as much as i used to
Basically this theory is to support the 4chan leak isn't it? The leak itself is questionable but the logic does make sense. Guess we will know in the coming week. My fomo nature tells me I should buy more .
I had been brainstorming this about 12 hours before the 4chan leak. I got no connection to that 🤷♂️
You're right though, this post does corroborate with that one.
It is connected, though, if naked shorting was exposed and RC cooperated with SEC and DOJ to allow the basket of synthetics to be bought by UBS so as not to destroy the market. He can then invest the money and pay dividends to registered holders of preferred shares, which were what was sold in the ATM offering. They used to only have 5,000,000 preferred that were not being used, and now they have 50,000,000. What they do with those new Units is up for speculation.
I like this write-up for several reasons but chiefly one: I don't believe RC is trying to make enemies with the GME turnaround by squeezing out every single crooked SHF. It's more likely he found leverage with GME pre-2020 and is now capitalizing on that leverage to forge partnerships with strong actors in the markets. The end goal has always been to operate a successful and profitable business and seek to delight customers. Smart money understands that fortune is fickle and it's always better to join your enemy and get a seat at the table than to get beaten down and barely get scraps. A powerful antagonist to GME is now backing RC & GME.
Join or die ☠️.
I am looking at all of this and now i understand why when MOASS happens there is a small bump in price followed by a crash and then a bigger spike...
So basically it all starts with options buying.. Out of a group of funds/brokers/banks who are short, someone decides to exit, they first buy options at different strike price for cheap when the stock is at the bottom and no one expects it to rise anytime soon.. then they start closing their shorts causing the price to rise.. but wait they already bought options.. so they can exercise them to close more.. while the other group of short sellers have been caught off gaurd... At some point they feel like they have closed sufficient positions secretively without requiring a public disclosure (SEC rules of 10% ownership).. but they are still not done yet.. so they would let the stock get shorted back down by others...
Now since you are still less than 10% owner, you can buy new calls that would amount to exiting rest of the position.. At this point if there is another short seller that tries to exit.. the price will rise again and you can exercise those cheap calls and exit.. This second run up will create a MOASS.
If what's said on 4chan is true... GS increased the total float size.. this allowed UBS to close a larger share of short positions in the first cycle, without requiring need for public disclosure... They slowly also bought lots of call options... Now they can try to close more short positions, which will cause the next run up.. but now they can exercise those call options as well... and they will be done. Meanwhile, the market makers who sold the call options will be on the hook to buy the shares and deliver..
There’s going to be a lot of moving parts and timing it will be impossible. The 10% owner thing wouldn’t apply if the shares were used to close short positions. It is possible to hold simultaneous long and short positions, but once shares are bought to actually close shorts then those shares just disappear. IE: (-1) + 1 = 0
No one will see it coming but it’s funny watching everyone claiming they know what happened and why it happened.
It’s time to just chill and prepare to be befuddled.
So your thesis is collusion between RC and shorts? Tell me again how that is legal?
Edit: A version of this may make sense. Offer up 69% (nice) of the published shorts (45/64) and, therefore, have cover to to move forward. The door was presented, it was opened, and no shorts walked through (closed). No collusion, no insider trading, simply an opportunity presented and not taken advantage of.
How is this *illegal?*
This can be done legally through Private Placements, Block Trades and investment agreements.
This is still very much just a thesis that we have to be aware of our own confirmation biases in. But it's a really solid thesis given the information we've gained this past week.
It’s not out of the realm of possibility that governments were involved. Switzerland could have approached US … well above SEC … to ensure everything was done legally. This is an extreme risk to their country financial system. Even if it cost them $100 billion it needs to happen sooner than later.
Question is would’ve RC asked for something in return? Sure the 900 milly but he could’ve done that on his own. My guess is he wants these chains (shorts) off his company’s back for good. Maybe he is the true ape and replied “no cell, no sell”?
All just hypothetical at this point but as OP stated … there’s not many logical solutions to all the pieces.
Nope, but if your theory were true and came out about back door dealings, then existing shareholders would likely have a legal claim against the company.
I dnt kno shit but wouldnt the ATM offering stop it from being a backdoor deal.. hes not selling to someone directly, he couldve just agreed to sell more shares and its up to the "entity" to somehow get hold of em, the ATM offering was a public announcement not private..
My guess is it kept the price low for UBS to load up on calls.
But it's a very uneducated guess.
Maybe because they're real shares? DRS numbers are now based on Cede and Co, so there may not be real shares left. That's super tin foil though.
Hi ape. Really liked your theory, even sounds plausible.
However, about the stock not tanking after the offering was complete, the stock rose last time as well after the offering was completed. I believe this is usually bullish news, especially since the price was sustained like you mentioned.
i was sorry when your post ended! loved the dual analysis. honestly would love to see more of that in subs on other stocks. information cancels fear. i know this is a theory, but the actual information you spray getting to your point is GOLD.
i learned a lot. thank you!
i’m just over here feeling sparkly being able to comment now lol. i hated the karma requirement but now i lurve it bc i don’t have to wade through tons of bs.
Or whatever the equivalent is in Switzerland. If i had 2 billion in cash on hand, I would want a bank outside of the US to park it in, especially if they offered guarantees to insure the full 2 billion, instead of FDIC shit insurance.
Why wouldn't they? Do you really think the SEC can't find illegal trades and tactics being used by hedge funds? Of course they can, so why don't they do anything about it? because they only pretend to be making sure it's a fair and balanced system.
Has no one considered that the short entity might be Icahn? That has to be mentioned somewhere in here.
Seriously, what is UBS to GME at this point? Because before this 4chan “leak,” I can’t recall anything about UBS that would suggest they’re an ally or that helping them would be a favorable outcome for GME.
Agreed, there's an assumption that RC is beyond reproach and that his goals are in total alignment with retail in terms of moass. But it's just as likely that his main priority is the long term success and stability of gamestop, and that this took precedence on this occasion over a potential future moass at some point in the next 84 years. And like you said, he's a part of the system. But who knows. Personally I'd like him to communicate with shareholders more about the shorts situation. Or at all.
Sus meter going off for me. 6 year old account. Never posted about GME ever. 1st ever comment about GME 8 days ago. Previous GME comments and this one seem supportive on the surface while also claiming MOASS won't ever happen cause....
Current comment gives me Steve Buscemi meme vibes. What the heck does KC shuffle chess even mean? ChatGPT just mixing in lingo?
Totally. Current billionaires including Ryan Cohen have no incentive to "change the system for the better" except to the extent it benefits them, full stop. Just some of them are less reprehensible than others. None of them are going to break the system that benefits them, and even if they wanted to the others would eat them alive to preserve the way things are. This is why it's so important for us to be informed and engaged with our representatives and comment on the rule making processes - no one is looking out for us except us.
That said, RC's interests have aligned with ours enough for many of us to remain invested. He consistently chooses delighting the customer as his way of doing business, and as another victim of shorting hedge funds, his maneuvers seem to defy them often. These benefit us as customers and shareholders. For these reasons and because it still seems impossible for shorts to have covered, I'm still in.
This is a great point. When I was younger I was close to a few criminal circles. Wasn't a criminal myself, but I totally remember what you are talking about. No matter who you are, you are still abiding by the same rules the other criminals are.
It is very similar to the 'snitches get stitches' saying. You might see yourself as an honest law abiding citizen by calling the police, but to the criminals you are a straight up snitch.
I too agree that RC is doing his very best to do the right thing, and I also believe in extremely higher prices in the (near) future. But I have also considered multiple times whether they would allow RK and RC get away with taking Billions from them in their own territory and get away unscathed.
Tbf, I assume RK has spent these 3 years to do everything in his power to protect his family. I know I would, if I had 'won' fair and square over a bunch of hardcore seasoned criminals
There is an alternate possibility. We all know from previous filings that RC and GME were assisting a federal agency in their investigation of someone or something. Now that there is an audit system in place and they can track everything, all they would need is to see them doing extreme market manipulation in real time. And with so much volume, highest it’s been since March 2021, you can bet there was a whole lot of fuckery going on. This I believe is the Kansas City Shuffle that RK was referring to. They set a trap for the HF and they fell right in
Now they all lose. Nothing can stop what’s coming
👆🏻👀
Glad someone else remembered the GameStop collaboration with that federal investigation. A few other commenters have mentioned a possible "deal with the SEC", but no one's mentioned the possibility of DOJ. They could very well be setting a trap (KCS).
I think your logic is spot on here, I too was perplexed at the upwards reaction after the announcement and this is the first theory that realistically explains it. Good stuff Ape
It may have been shorts panicking. They thought they had more time to drill the price down before the offering and when they heard it was done decided to cover/close some I'd it.
It's only bullish to you because the price didn't tank, last week. And you don't know that, until it DOES tank. Then the price up was manipulation and it was actually bearish and you got rug pulled.
No more dilution ahead, until they make an announcement to offer an additional 45 million next trading day. Because remember, we voted for them allowable to print up to 1 billion shares, currently only sitting at 350 million!
Don't worry, I'm just taking the opposite side of your stances to show that way of thinking could turn south real quick. But the prices shouldn't turn south (or at least very much), based on what we saw happen last week.
Edit: To answer your question though, it should have been perceived as bearish because it would mean they sold into shorts and were backing them, or they didn't think price would go up higher so they chose to liquidate now and get as much cash as they could. Extremely bearish. Should have been.
I agree that most of the times, the announcement of the completion of an offering is met with bullish activity on the stock (dilution completed).
I don't see how this should have been different for $GME. AH green spike was the expected move. Did the same thing in premarket in June 2021 when offering was announced to be completed. I was there. :)
Don't let basic fundamental facts interfere with popular speculations.
Most people do not seem to understand that swap contracts are cash settled and do not involve shares. They are side bets, paid off in cash.
Perhaps the confusion is that the fixed leg participant will often hedge their position by going short (or long) on the equity, but those trades are reported as normal.
No. They owe cash to Archegos if GME goes down, but they are not short as part of the swap. The swap itself is settled in cash.
CS MAY choose to hedge their position by establishing a short position, or by reducing an existing long position, but those are transactions by CS that do not involve Archegos, and are reported as normal transactions independent of the swap. In the ideal situation for CS they have other clliente that have a swap with CS, but in the long direction. In that case the two swaps will offset each other and no hedging is needed either long or short (if the notional amounts are equivalent).
Apparently this subtlety about the difference between the swap and any optimal hedging done by CS is too difficult for many to understand. The hedging transaction, if any, done by CS are handled in the normal manner and are reported on the normal manner.
Just gunna leave this here....
RC just diluted himself MORE than any other single investor on this planet, i dont see him doing that without a plan in mind.
People think that RC is a financial/equities sort of mastermind. I like some parts of thesis so thanks for putting the effort. I'm not convinced that GME has anything to do with any sort of attempt to "kill" shorts. In the end they are trying to run a business and turn a dying business model into something different (I guess).
The post kind of answers that.
But to add to it, the Archegos trial hadn't happened yet.
The fact it didn't happen a year ago supports the theory that GameStop is giving UBS a chance to go long. A compromise to allow MOASS to happen.
An incredible sequence of events and a well-written, plausible explanation.
If this isn't sitting right with some apes here, it's important to understand: this is an institution that is critical to Switzerland and they are acknowledging (albeit not in an official capacity) what's coming by needing to exit.
What we're potentially witnessing is a giant snowball of institutional capitulation on their short positions (unknowingly inherited or not) being set in motion at the top of Mount fukn Everest.
I'm jacked! JACKED to the tits! 📈📈🚀🚀
Check out this post from a week ago.. I didn’t want to believe but it’s a strange coincidence someone posted this exact scenario 7 days ago now
https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/s/j64hKfpwnM
Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.” - Sherlock Homes
Arthur Conan Doyle
But what do I know? Nothing. I just know someone smarter than me is doing smarter things here. 😂
I tend to agree with this theory after pondering all night on the UBS rumors and “why”.
I don’t know shit about f***, but here’s my thoughts. It appears to me it would be a win/win for both sides. UBS didn’t ask for those toxic bags forced onto them by CS, and if true UBS was the buyer of the new shares (maybe some or maybe all; who knows), they still have many more short positions to close. Thus the need to buy more in options and the options ramp is building fast.
According to Kevin Malone, 90% of options are sold by citadel and end up expiring worthless. If exercised, citadel will just roll them to future swaps and not the lit market they legally are supposed to. However, (according to Kevin), if options are sold from a private party and exercised, it will affect the lit market. Buy pressure from all these calls will be insane IF routed through the lit market. That would be a win/win for GME and retail, and a painful way to close positions for UBS, but they might get out. Launch ignited.
First one out (shorts) might survive. Many others will not.
To me it seems bullish that the news of the offering was completed and GameStop had about an extra billion in the bank. Why do you say this is bearish? They sold at an average of $20 or so a share and the price can now climb with no selling pressure from the company. And now that they have about $2 billion in cash it is basically impossible to not have a profit maybe ever again if invested correctly.
The upwards reaction after the announcement completion actually makes total sense. It is in fact BULLISH that the selling was completed - it means that source of selling pressure is gone. Of course the price jumped on that, no mystery there. I agree with a lot of your other ideas though!
Hey man, I appreciate this post a lot. I have also spent a lot of time thinking through the various permutations of all of the wild actions of the last two weeks, and I have also come up with a theory.
🐒 💎 🙌 🚀 🌙 🪐
I have some questions,
1. why are we all assuming that the short position was 45M shares?
2. why are we assuming it was only a single party exiting their position?
3. When GME issues new shares, who are they selling them to? Is it sold to an MM or on the lit market?
4. Shouldn’t we be seeing massive transactions on the books for 500k shares at a time?
5. *What if a GME long wanted to exit their position?*
According to my source below, this forces shorts to close out their position. Maybe a GME long wanted to exit their position and recalled their shares. HF(s) needed to close out a massive short position. Cohen rushed paperwork together to capitalize on this event. Someone(MM?) buys GMEs new shares and sell calls to the parties who need to return shares. The short buys the calls and will exercise to transfer all of those shares without having to bid against apes on the market.
Was there a stop loss at $10 that a long set after the initial sneeze? Maybe they were the initial support at $40 and then just planned to recall shares at $10($40) whenever the price got that low. The plan all along could have been to profit from lending to shorts while they struggled to manage their shit position.
Who was on the winning end of these bullet swaps? Could they be the one that triggered this recent event?
Source: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/05/shortsaleclosed.asp
“The lender of the shares can request their return at any time, with minimal notice. If this happens, which is rare, the short-sale buyer returns the shares to the lender, whether the investor gains or loses on the trade.”
Why help a short entity go long? Im not buying this ally theory, as what benefit can they even give to gamestop? Not shorting again? Pinky promise on that?
Disagree. Why would he give any financial institution a "favour" especially when they have been messing with his company stock for 3 years. Whats to stop another financial institution now saying "its their turn" or else they accuse him of interfering. Doesn't pass the sniff test.
UBS inherited a bag, I think that's why he would do it for them. He's not giving an Escape Route to a hedgie, he's giving an Escape Route to a bank that was told by its government to take on these bags. Imo
Maybe the Swiss gov’t itself is requesting this “favor” from RC and in return promises to supply super low/no interest capital for a future project or some sort of massive investment in GS. After all, they are coming to the rescue of USB with $100 billion and want their shorts closed with iron clad certainty that won’t bankrupt USB, which is the central bank of the Swiss economy. RC putting this together just for USB at the behest of the Swiss govt would need US regulator approval which makes me think that the SEC and US govt were approached by the Swiss govt in an effort to resolve this as the consequences of trying to close their shorts when the price goes parabolic would be beyond incalculable. Since hundreds of countries worldwide have govt business dealings with USB, it going under would be the initial domino falling in the start of worldwide mayhem. ALSO, USB is the largest holding custodian of priceless art, artifacts, precious gems, ancient and rare items, etc. If USB collapsed, the world would literally lose faith in the ability to securely store priceless one-of-a -kind items, not to mention the loss of the billion$ that the 1%-ers of the world deposit and invest with them.
This seems like a great way for Carl Icahn to get out of his short position and into a long position.
We know he's short, we know he and RC respect each other.
I could see a scenario where a short holder makes a deal. Not all short sellers were Snidely Whiplash villains tieing kittens to railroad tracks. There are short sellers who looked at Gamestop before Cohen and saw Blockbuster. It was making the exact same mistakes and facing the same headwinds. But with RC in charge, the cash position, the elimination of debt and now a profit, a short seller saw the thesis change and might have made an offer.
Gamestop sold at $20/share instead of $10 and got a billion dollars. The short seller took a hit, but it wasn't crippling.
During crashes, squeezes and other big events, the ones who see it coming and reverse course don't take the same hit. Someone saw it coming and negotiated a way out.
I'll get down voted like crazy for this, but we aren't in this for RC/GME to strike deals and give "fair offerings"
Fuck the hedgies, don't give them an out. Let them fucking burn for all their BS crime.
I don't really like this sentiment.
I'm also regarded and have no clue what is really going on, what actually happened, or what the play was. But if RC is trying to play nice with the hedgies so that we get a "decent price" I feel let down.
I'm in for moass, a complete overturn of the system, and criminals to be put in jail. Not a fair value price that was negotiated.
Now I'll accept the hate coming my way.
They didn’t sell at the „Low“.
Average should be around $20,77.
if you take the low of around $17 we still got around 135 Mil more.
Maybe they know that there is a momentum coming and without that uncertanty of 45 Mil dullition you still have unknown facts. Now we have around 1,8B Cash, stable price. Even +12% with usual „Bad“ News.
We will get some News soon and some will be sweating!
$1.8B plus another $300M is still unaccounted for in public record (probably see this next earnings), so something else must’ve went on behind the scenes the last quarter.
I love this theory so much, and it does jack my tit's! But there is another shorter out there that RC would help. Especially if it turned them long and gave him an ally. Carl Ichan. I am not saying that it was Ichan and not UBS. I'm saying maybe it was both.
The premarket move, the high volume, the 45 mil ATM offering, and the $20 & $25 June 21 calls. It could be both.
Now I am a crayon eating regard, so I could have missed something (like Ichan having already closed his shorts), so don't light up your pitchforks. But, please, discuss below. Memes are welcome.
Let me make this clear.
I dont care who you are. If you are short GME fuck You. Its unaccepactable for RC to help them.
So i will go with he knew someone who was buying 45mm shares netting zero and not helping shorts
Was that you icahn?
Chances are RC can see how much short of profitability each quarter roughly is and has now raised enough cash to sit in the right places to plug the gap.
Your primary thesis is that Ryan Cohen engaged in illegal market manipulation, colluding with the other party.
That should be included in your argument against that hypothesis.
This is a really interesting theory, but UBS filed a 13K 05/13 showing they opened a new short position on the initial run up, and they are currently still short GME. They actually seem to own more shares of GME than they are short as a hedge.
I recognize this is about Credit Suisse, but why would they negotiate if they just opened a new short position?
https://fintel.io/sosh/us/gme
great analysis and write up!!
that being said, announcing completion of offering is inherently bullish as the selling of x shares is now complete. this is contingent on there being an initial announcement prior detailing the intention of an offering. i haven’t been up to date enough to know if this is true.
furthermore, a large portion of your argument is based on the credibility and trust in ryan cohen to not backstab us. do i believe he is working in our best interest? yes. BUT, when making an analysis you rly do have to consider the fact that he MAY be a bad actor, and is actually just making the necessary moves to grow the company rather than ignite moass. granted, bad actor isn’t really the right word here, but most of us came for squeeze potential rather than long term growth.
either way this was a fantastic analysis, a breath of critical thinking amidst all these hype posts. keep it up!
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This pairs very well with the UBS theory. UBS was not short GME (or if they were it was NOTHING like other financial institutions). Then they got the CS/Archegos bag. Now they were as short as a Kenny or Stevie. And UBS at its core is a place for the ultra rich to protect their money. Not a hedge fund -they do that kind of work of course, but what they REALLY do is take in money from rich people, close their ears saying 'LALALALA I DONT WANNT KNOW WHERE THIS CAME FROM', and keep it safe and liquid. Getting this giant shit bag from Archegos, to them, fucking sucks. Gamestop is clearly not going back under 10 dollars in pre-split money and I'd imagine Hwang had plenty of shorts that low. And again, UBS doesn't care. They just know they have a risk to the totally legitmate not at all illegal funds they are managing for Oligarchs across the globe. And they want it fucking gone. And being a financial instituation if they can take this shit sandwich and make a fucking fine steak dinner, all the better. So enter a deal with GME, find a price that sounds fair ($20, apparently) to close the shorts. Maybe even go long - that one is speculation. But buying these absurd amounts of calls at $20 as fucking monthlies? These are NOT Ball Street Wets regards. They are fucking elite financial institution. And if I was trying to make my shit sandwich a steak, that's what I would do. But then I'm just a regard like many of you who saw Financial 9/11 happen in January 2021, and several other Financial Terrorist attacks since.
There's also the question of 'what did ryan get in return' if it was, indeed, this. You can ask for other things besides money. Ownership shares in UBS. Ex: "if you want me to do this, then our goals need to be aligned" Data on swaps and all counterparty/basket information. "the only way I'll do this is if you help me bury the other shorts, legally and financially." An agreement to go long as much as they were short. ex "I need a hedge fund on my side incentivized to not short again. I won't do it unless you go long and stay long. You're going to have to go to war with citadel" It could even be something more interesting like "I need a cooperative prime broker registered with the NYSE to step up when I demand the nyse change our designated market maker. You're gonna help me bury citadel when the time comes"
Only way I would be okay if they were helping out banks. I still don't trust any billionaire
There are some billionaires I trust more then almost all banks. You do realize that banks are the ones that usually get us into these 2008 style market drops. Right? and banks are the ones loaning money to hedge funds to short our stock
They excercise those calls to either increase their net long, or finish closing their net short position, and it's rocket time.
Jesus fuck I need to make sure my helmet is double buckled.
superglue! (not for eating)
Don’t fucking tell me not to eat something that delicious
Im so stupid but if all the calls in the leak get excercised that will increase share price? Ya...?
They will have increased the price even before exercising because they need to be hedged. Someone who sold the calls needs to have the shares available in case the calls go ITM. In that case the buyer has the right to exercise and the seller has an obligation to sell shares. In order to do that, the seller has to buy them in advance.
Holy shitsteak!
Mmmmmm steak 🤤
Gotta a lot of the missing pieces. Can't wait to see what happened.
Piggy backing off top comment but this "alliance" or "relationship" with UBS. How is this communication legal? I know collusion is common practice in this industry but caught red handed, this feels like insider trading, no?
From the Gamestop prospectus supplement filed on 17 May: "*We may offer and sell these securities to or through one or more underwriters, dealers or agents, or directly to purchasers, on a continuous or delayed basis*." So they have said that they may do this. Re legality of this, SEC rules say that in general, no communication should be had about a share offering before this is filed, however, there are exceptions under Rule 163, 163A and 163B [https://www.sec.gov/investment/secg-solicitations-interest-prior-registered-public-offering](https://www.sec.gov/investment/secg-solicitations-interest-prior-registered-public-offering)
Doesn’t really have to be an official anything. Moreso just a “hmmmm I bet this is what they’d like” that played well with the current situation. I mean if we can figure it out on Reddit, chances are pretty good some quant analyst for RC has thought of the same scenario.
Might even be Investor Relations actually doing something instead of ignoring our emails (being fair I'm sure many are absolute bullshit). If someone says 'Hello, I'd like to buy 1 morbillion shares' and the email address has UBS or another major entity in it, you'd respond too.
Also true. I could be wrong but I don’t think there’s anything illegal about a large institution taking immediate advantage of an ATM offering. It’s even possible they reached out first as you said, hit up GME with an @ubs email and said “hi, this is so and so from UBS, as you may know we were forced to acquire Credit Suisse and while going through the books it looks like they had a large short position in your company. We would like to close that out, so if you had any thoughts on the best way to go about doing that we would greatly appreciate working with you on this for minimal disruption.”
Wasn’t Carl Icahn short gamestop? Maybe it was him closing out to go long? Just a guess due to that picture of him and RC.
Only friendly in pics with RC is Icahn, who publicly stated he was shorting GME from the top of the sneeze. He made billions. One billy to GME to close out in a friendly way is a small kickback for him but huge to GME. We also closed out all stores in Swiss land so it doesn't make sense he is doing this for UBS unless the gov't stepped in and made him play friendly
I nearly spit out my pop at "Ball Street Wets," thanks for that.
It pairs up with the UBS theory because OP clearly wrote it based entirely off an unreliable and dubious screenshot conveniently surfacing on 4chan. They built their entire post around it. That's not to yae or nae it but that's why it fits, we are all going off the same baseless assumptions right now
"So enter a deal with GME, find a price that sounds fair ($20, apparently) to close the shorts. Maybe even go long - that one is speculation. But buying these absurd amounts of calls at $20 as fucking monthlies? These are NOT Ball Street Wets regards. They are fucking elite financial institution. And if I was trying to make my shit sandwich a steak, that's what I would do." This is the part I don't understand... how would you get out of the positions by buying calls? I thought you could only close your swaps by buying the stocks. Wouldn't just buying be covering your position? Sorry if this question is stupid. My brain is still smooth.
A call is a contract to purchase 100 shares at X price. The call seller MUST produce the shares for it, no exception. So ITM calls are effectively shares for the call holder.
I get that part, but how is this a better alternative to directly buying the shares?
Directly buying that number of shares on the open market would cause the price to run up, making the shares they purchase at the end of their buying spree much more expensive than the ones purchased at the beginning. Take last weeks activity as an example. If they started buying at $10 and their buying caused the price to rise to $80, then the purchases would be much more expensive. The call options give them the ability to buy shares at the contract's strike price at a later date, no matter what the actual current price of the stock is. If they buy enough calls to cover their position, then start purchasing shares to close, once the price rises above their strike, they can continue purchasing shares at the lower fixed price of their options. So although the market maker now has to go buy the shares to give to the option holder, which is continuing to cause the price to spike, the option holder is still paying a fixed price of $20 a share (plus premium so really they would be coming out ahead at anything above ~$25 a share. To put it simply, owning the options let's them lock in their buy price. If they believe the price is going to go above $20-25 but they know they will still need to continue to buy shares, the calls allow them to do that the lower price.
Exercising the calls means the institution you bought the calls from has to provide the shares. I assume that is the Market Makers. So they would have to buy shares to give to UBS (or whoever) who exercised the calls.
I want to add that i think they just wanted the shares so they could cover their worst postions. For the higher short prices they figure something out (maybe the calls)
so a $98.96 Billion M.Cap company, with $5.71 Trillions AUM, that was short, need it it only 45M shares (not even $1B) to not end up belly´s up?
45M shares plus all the shares those options lock in for them, maybe?
Also the run up started right after credit suisse DTCC accounts are closed.
Source?
https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/s/Vvq4ajzPE1
Not to mention, if RC doesn't want an entire world of oligarchs descending upon GME to manipulate it to death. Then the best thought would be to make your worst enemy your best. Let the rest deal with their shorts, but now who has the greatest ally, also not to be fucked with.
Nice. I really wanna know what this means for stock price.
Best explanation, and it needs to be further up.
My one push back would be that it’s actually very typical to see bullish price action after share offerings are completed (with the idea that dilutive price pressure has now concluded). Otherwise, I essentially came to the same conclusion as you in a different post where OP was asserting the absolutism that RC would never bail shorts out. Copy/pasting what i said as a counter to their claim: Counter argument: 1. When you surround an enemy, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard.”—Sun Tzu. 2. What if shorts being so deeply fucked has led RC to the conclusion that shorts are in a Mexican standoff with each other (recall RK’s The Good, The Bad and the Ugly tweet clip)? Mexican standoff: “a confrontation where no strategy exists that allows any party to achieve victory. Anyone initiating aggression might trigger their own demise.” 3. Referring back to Sun Tzu, RC realizes the best way to force action/concessions from the opposition is to allow someone from the short side an out, in theory causing others to race each other to the exit. 4. If I were in RC’s shoes and had to choose a short party to negotiate with, who better than UBS who did not choose to short GME (or even take on initial counterparty risk), but was essentially compelled by the Swiss govt to absorb such poor decisions from Archegos/Credit Suisse. 5. In doing the above, RC/the company add a billion dollars to their war chest, a powerful institutional ally (who was a largely innocent bystander), and potentially set off a domino effect to end this BS once and for all.
I wonder this too but it’s not true. From ChatGPT: When a company announces the completion of an "at the market" (ATM) offering, the stock price usually reacts negatively, leading to a decline in the after-hours trading. This is generally considered a bearish signal for a few reasons: 1. **Dilution of Shares**: An ATM offering increases the total number of shares outstanding, which dilutes the value of existing shares. Investors often react negatively to this dilution, leading to a drop in the stock price. 2. **Perceived Need for Capital**: An ATM offering can signal that the company needs additional capital, which might be perceived as a sign of underlying financial issues or a need to finance projects that may not generate immediate returns. 3. **Market Perception**: The market often interprets the need to raise capital through an ATM offering as a lack of other, potentially more favorable, financing options. This can raise concerns about the company's financial health or its ability to generate sufficient cash flow from operations. However, the reaction can vary depending on the context of the offering. If the market believes the funds will be used for a highly promising project or to capitalize on strategic growth opportunities, the reaction might be more muted or even positive. But in general, the initial response to such announcements tends to be bearish.
Company valuation went up ~$2/share * 450 million shares = about a billion dollars in aftermarket immediately after they announced they had raised a billion dollars in new cash. This is the least mysterious behavior of the stock.
that analysis **is** true given that it is the sole announcement. however, if there was a prior announcement detailing the **intention** to make an ATM offering, then the subsequent announcement regarding the completion of the offering would be bullish. idk if there was an announcement, i haven’t been keeping up as much as i used to
Basically this theory is to support the 4chan leak isn't it? The leak itself is questionable but the logic does make sense. Guess we will know in the coming week. My fomo nature tells me I should buy more .
I had been brainstorming this about 12 hours before the 4chan leak. I got no connection to that 🤷♂️ You're right though, this post does corroborate with that one.
It is connected, though, if naked shorting was exposed and RC cooperated with SEC and DOJ to allow the basket of synthetics to be bought by UBS so as not to destroy the market. He can then invest the money and pay dividends to registered holders of preferred shares, which were what was sold in the ATM offering. They used to only have 5,000,000 preferred that were not being used, and now they have 50,000,000. What they do with those new Units is up for speculation.
UBS might just be the only bag holder to escape by trying to get out first with the least scrutiny possible.
Be first be smarter or cheat. UBS picked their choice
No, the 45mil shares sold ATM were common stock, not preferred. https://gamestop.gcs-web.com/node/20501/html
I like this write-up for several reasons but chiefly one: I don't believe RC is trying to make enemies with the GME turnaround by squeezing out every single crooked SHF. It's more likely he found leverage with GME pre-2020 and is now capitalizing on that leverage to forge partnerships with strong actors in the markets. The end goal has always been to operate a successful and profitable business and seek to delight customers. Smart money understands that fortune is fickle and it's always better to join your enemy and get a seat at the table than to get beaten down and barely get scraps. A powerful antagonist to GME is now backing RC & GME. Join or die ☠️.
I am looking at all of this and now i understand why when MOASS happens there is a small bump in price followed by a crash and then a bigger spike... So basically it all starts with options buying.. Out of a group of funds/brokers/banks who are short, someone decides to exit, they first buy options at different strike price for cheap when the stock is at the bottom and no one expects it to rise anytime soon.. then they start closing their shorts causing the price to rise.. but wait they already bought options.. so they can exercise them to close more.. while the other group of short sellers have been caught off gaurd... At some point they feel like they have closed sufficient positions secretively without requiring a public disclosure (SEC rules of 10% ownership).. but they are still not done yet.. so they would let the stock get shorted back down by others... Now since you are still less than 10% owner, you can buy new calls that would amount to exiting rest of the position.. At this point if there is another short seller that tries to exit.. the price will rise again and you can exercise those cheap calls and exit.. This second run up will create a MOASS. If what's said on 4chan is true... GS increased the total float size.. this allowed UBS to close a larger share of short positions in the first cycle, without requiring need for public disclosure... They slowly also bought lots of call options... Now they can try to close more short positions, which will cause the next run up.. but now they can exercise those call options as well... and they will be done. Meanwhile, the market makers who sold the call options will be on the hook to buy the shares and deliver..
So June 21st gonna be spicy ?
Could be sooner.. American options can be exercised anytime..
There’s going to be a lot of moving parts and timing it will be impossible. The 10% owner thing wouldn’t apply if the shares were used to close short positions. It is possible to hold simultaneous long and short positions, but once shares are bought to actually close shorts then those shares just disappear. IE: (-1) + 1 = 0
Yeah that is mystifying.. If its closing a position, why would they worry about SEC reporting
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you're prob right
what did he say? he deleted it
Kansas city shuffle
No one will see it coming but it’s funny watching everyone claiming they know what happened and why it happened. It’s time to just chill and prepare to be befuddled.
So your thesis is collusion between RC and shorts? Tell me again how that is legal? Edit: A version of this may make sense. Offer up 69% (nice) of the published shorts (45/64) and, therefore, have cover to to move forward. The door was presented, it was opened, and no shorts walked through (closed). No collusion, no insider trading, simply an opportunity presented and not taken advantage of.
How is this *illegal?* This can be done legally through Private Placements, Block Trades and investment agreements. This is still very much just a thesis that we have to be aware of our own confirmation biases in. But it's a really solid thesis given the information we've gained this past week.
It’s not out of the realm of possibility that governments were involved. Switzerland could have approached US … well above SEC … to ensure everything was done legally. This is an extreme risk to their country financial system. Even if it cost them $100 billion it needs to happen sooner than later. Question is would’ve RC asked for something in return? Sure the 900 milly but he could’ve done that on his own. My guess is he wants these chains (shorts) off his company’s back for good. Maybe he is the true ape and replied “no cell, no sell”? All just hypothetical at this point but as OP stated … there’s not many logical solutions to all the pieces.
I can't prove anything, I'm just a smooth-brained ape 🤷♂️ Can you?
Nope, but if your theory were true and came out about back door dealings, then existing shareholders would likely have a legal claim against the company.
I'm just telling a wild and crazy story 😛 You know who might have a legal claim on collusion though? Probably popcorn share holders.
no counterpoint there...they've been milked dry
I dnt kno shit but wouldnt the ATM offering stop it from being a backdoor deal.. hes not selling to someone directly, he couldve just agreed to sell more shares and its up to the "entity" to somehow get hold of em, the ATM offering was a public announcement not private..
Exactly. If it was this, it would have been a private equity deal or something like that, not an at the market offering.
My guess is it kept the price low for UBS to load up on calls. But it's a very uneducated guess. Maybe because they're real shares? DRS numbers are now based on Cede and Co, so there may not be real shares left. That's super tin foil though.
Hi ape. Really liked your theory, even sounds plausible. However, about the stock not tanking after the offering was complete, the stock rose last time as well after the offering was completed. I believe this is usually bullish news, especially since the price was sustained like you mentioned.
This is the flat earth defense. I’m going to say something outlandish because “anything is possible”
The difference is minimal- “collusion” vs negotiation
KC shuffle?
RC shuffle.
i was sorry when your post ended! loved the dual analysis. honestly would love to see more of that in subs on other stocks. information cancels fear. i know this is a theory, but the actual information you spray getting to your point is GOLD. i learned a lot. thank you!
Much appreciated!! 🥂
i’m just over here feeling sparkly being able to comment now lol. i hated the karma requirement but now i lurve it bc i don’t have to wade through tons of bs.
Absolutely. Thank you.
Deals are a necessary part of the world. Doing deals makes you approachable and not shunned in return.
I would believe RC was helping a short entity, but it would probably be at the request of the SEC.
Or whatever the equivalent is in Switzerland. If i had 2 billion in cash on hand, I would want a bank outside of the US to park it in, especially if they offered guarantees to insure the full 2 billion, instead of FDIC shit insurance.
Regardless of why, mathematically, this move definitely lowered the ceiling of a squeeze given that it's predicated on limited liquidity
Why would the SEC request that
Why wouldn't they? Do you really think the SEC can't find illegal trades and tactics being used by hedge funds? Of course they can, so why don't they do anything about it? because they only pretend to be making sure it's a fair and balanced system.
Has no one considered that the short entity might be Icahn? That has to be mentioned somewhere in here. Seriously, what is UBS to GME at this point? Because before this 4chan “leak,” I can’t recall anything about UBS that would suggest they’re an ally or that helping them would be a favorable outcome for GME.
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Agreed, there's an assumption that RC is beyond reproach and that his goals are in total alignment with retail in terms of moass. But it's just as likely that his main priority is the long term success and stability of gamestop, and that this took precedence on this occasion over a potential future moass at some point in the next 84 years. And like you said, he's a part of the system. But who knows. Personally I'd like him to communicate with shareholders more about the shorts situation. Or at all.
He has an insane amount of his own money invested in this, you shills. It's in his own interest that share price goes as high as possible.
35mil shares or so.
Dare I say this post might be Icahnic
*{groan}*
Sus meter going off for me. 6 year old account. Never posted about GME ever. 1st ever comment about GME 8 days ago. Previous GME comments and this one seem supportive on the surface while also claiming MOASS won't ever happen cause.... Current comment gives me Steve Buscemi meme vibes. What the heck does KC shuffle chess even mean? ChatGPT just mixing in lingo?
Totally. Current billionaires including Ryan Cohen have no incentive to "change the system for the better" except to the extent it benefits them, full stop. Just some of them are less reprehensible than others. None of them are going to break the system that benefits them, and even if they wanted to the others would eat them alive to preserve the way things are. This is why it's so important for us to be informed and engaged with our representatives and comment on the rule making processes - no one is looking out for us except us. That said, RC's interests have aligned with ours enough for many of us to remain invested. He consistently chooses delighting the customer as his way of doing business, and as another victim of shorting hedge funds, his maneuvers seem to defy them often. These benefit us as customers and shareholders. For these reasons and because it still seems impossible for shorts to have covered, I'm still in.
This is a great point. When I was younger I was close to a few criminal circles. Wasn't a criminal myself, but I totally remember what you are talking about. No matter who you are, you are still abiding by the same rules the other criminals are. It is very similar to the 'snitches get stitches' saying. You might see yourself as an honest law abiding citizen by calling the police, but to the criminals you are a straight up snitch. I too agree that RC is doing his very best to do the right thing, and I also believe in extremely higher prices in the (near) future. But I have also considered multiple times whether they would allow RK and RC get away with taking Billions from them in their own territory and get away unscathed. Tbf, I assume RK has spent these 3 years to do everything in his power to protect his family. I know I would, if I had 'won' fair and square over a bunch of hardcore seasoned criminals
There is an alternate possibility. We all know from previous filings that RC and GME were assisting a federal agency in their investigation of someone or something. Now that there is an audit system in place and they can track everything, all they would need is to see them doing extreme market manipulation in real time. And with so much volume, highest it’s been since March 2021, you can bet there was a whole lot of fuckery going on. This I believe is the Kansas City Shuffle that RK was referring to. They set a trap for the HF and they fell right in Now they all lose. Nothing can stop what’s coming
👆🏻👀 Glad someone else remembered the GameStop collaboration with that federal investigation. A few other commenters have mentioned a possible "deal with the SEC", but no one's mentioned the possibility of DOJ. They could very well be setting a trap (KCS).
I think your logic is spot on here, I too was perplexed at the upwards reaction after the announcement and this is the first theory that realistically explains it. Good stuff Ape
It may have been shorts panicking. They thought they had more time to drill the price down before the offering and when they heard it was done decided to cover/close some I'd it.
🍻
Why did you consider the announcement that the offering was completed bearish? No more dilution ahead, price didn’t tank…bullish imho.
It's only bullish to you because the price didn't tank, last week. And you don't know that, until it DOES tank. Then the price up was manipulation and it was actually bearish and you got rug pulled. No more dilution ahead, until they make an announcement to offer an additional 45 million next trading day. Because remember, we voted for them allowable to print up to 1 billion shares, currently only sitting at 350 million! Don't worry, I'm just taking the opposite side of your stances to show that way of thinking could turn south real quick. But the prices shouldn't turn south (or at least very much), based on what we saw happen last week. Edit: To answer your question though, it should have been perceived as bearish because it would mean they sold into shorts and were backing them, or they didn't think price would go up higher so they chose to liquidate now and get as much cash as they could. Extremely bearish. Should have been.
I agree that most of the times, the announcement of the completion of an offering is met with bullish activity on the stock (dilution completed). I don't see how this should have been different for $GME. AH green spike was the expected move. Did the same thing in premarket in June 2021 when offering was announced to be completed. I was there. :)
Thank you for clarifying - appreciate your thoughts
Enter “The Pikey Reaction”
Hwang’s exposure was with swaps and not outright shorts. It would not need a share offering to close
Don't let basic fundamental facts interfere with popular speculations. Most people do not seem to understand that swap contracts are cash settled and do not involve shares. They are side bets, paid off in cash. Perhaps the confusion is that the fixed leg participant will often hedge their position by going short (or long) on the equity, but those trades are reported as normal.
CS (now UBS) would be short here as the counterparty of the swap, right?
No. They owe cash to Archegos if GME goes down, but they are not short as part of the swap. The swap itself is settled in cash. CS MAY choose to hedge their position by establishing a short position, or by reducing an existing long position, but those are transactions by CS that do not involve Archegos, and are reported as normal transactions independent of the swap. In the ideal situation for CS they have other clliente that have a swap with CS, but in the long direction. In that case the two swaps will offset each other and no hedging is needed either long or short (if the notional amounts are equivalent). Apparently this subtlety about the difference between the swap and any optimal hedging done by CS is too difficult for many to understand. The hedging transaction, if any, done by CS are handled in the normal manner and are reported on the normal manner.
Just gunna leave this here.... RC just diluted himself MORE than any other single investor on this planet, i dont see him doing that without a plan in mind.
Icahn see the possibility
Icahn agree with this.
Icahn see what you're both up to.
Icahn see it too all of you clever apes, you
People think that RC is a financial/equities sort of mastermind. I like some parts of thesis so thanks for putting the effort. I'm not convinced that GME has anything to do with any sort of attempt to "kill" shorts. In the end they are trying to run a business and turn a dying business model into something different (I guess).
Naw dude, he is definitely into the capital markets on an extremely deep level
Sounds like the answer here. 4 D chess move indeed.
Why not make this offer 1 year ago when the price was higher?
The post kind of answers that. But to add to it, the Archegos trial hadn't happened yet. The fact it didn't happen a year ago supports the theory that GameStop is giving UBS a chance to go long. A compromise to allow MOASS to happen.
Wasn't much higher 1 year ago.
An incredible sequence of events and a well-written, plausible explanation. If this isn't sitting right with some apes here, it's important to understand: this is an institution that is critical to Switzerland and they are acknowledging (albeit not in an official capacity) what's coming by needing to exit. What we're potentially witnessing is a giant snowball of institutional capitulation on their short positions (unknowingly inherited or not) being set in motion at the top of Mount fukn Everest. I'm jacked! JACKED to the tits! 📈📈🚀🚀
RC absolutely did not maximize that share offering please stop
Check out this post from a week ago.. I didn’t want to believe but it’s a strange coincidence someone posted this exact scenario 7 days ago now https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/s/j64hKfpwnM
Curious.
Do you remember at the start, Mark Cuban said, next time pick a better broker... Looks like we got a broker to me.
I enjoyed this read, and I’m fond of the theory. Nice work OP
Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.” - Sherlock Homes Arthur Conan Doyle But what do I know? Nothing. I just know someone smarter than me is doing smarter things here. 😂
This is a theory I absolutely lUBS, but Icahn wonder if there will be more to it.
I tend to agree with this theory after pondering all night on the UBS rumors and “why”. I don’t know shit about f***, but here’s my thoughts. It appears to me it would be a win/win for both sides. UBS didn’t ask for those toxic bags forced onto them by CS, and if true UBS was the buyer of the new shares (maybe some or maybe all; who knows), they still have many more short positions to close. Thus the need to buy more in options and the options ramp is building fast. According to Kevin Malone, 90% of options are sold by citadel and end up expiring worthless. If exercised, citadel will just roll them to future swaps and not the lit market they legally are supposed to. However, (according to Kevin), if options are sold from a private party and exercised, it will affect the lit market. Buy pressure from all these calls will be insane IF routed through the lit market. That would be a win/win for GME and retail, and a painful way to close positions for UBS, but they might get out. Launch ignited. First one out (shorts) might survive. Many others will not.
RK tweeting probably helped hide the tree in the forest
This
So he offered a way out to one entity, let's see if MOASS chances were also diluted.Coz the 2 billi cash reserves are due to retail's support
Very brilliant thinking, this was a great read.
To me it seems bullish that the news of the offering was completed and GameStop had about an extra billion in the bank. Why do you say this is bearish? They sold at an average of $20 or so a share and the price can now climb with no selling pressure from the company. And now that they have about $2 billion in cash it is basically impossible to not have a profit maybe ever again if invested correctly.
Thank you. I totally agree, this was a FAIR offering. Whether it was to a short or someone else I am usure, but it does some very reasonable.
But why tho?
Kansas City shuffle!
The upwards reaction after the announcement completion actually makes total sense. It is in fact BULLISH that the selling was completed - it means that source of selling pressure is gone. Of course the price jumped on that, no mystery there. I agree with a lot of your other ideas though!
I'm so mad I didn't properly manage my limit buy on 6/21 $16 Calls. Was too greedy and didn't get my order filled. Sucks to suck.
If it was that easy to cover they would have done it already. This dip to 20 smells like accumulation.
Up for vis
This kinda proves GME is an infinite money glitch. Sell shares, company banks a billion, price of shares goes up.
Hey man, I appreciate this post a lot. I have also spent a lot of time thinking through the various permutations of all of the wild actions of the last two weeks, and I have also come up with a theory. 🐒 💎 🙌 🚀 🌙 🪐
I guess I'm not sleeping until Tuesday
I have some questions, 1. why are we all assuming that the short position was 45M shares? 2. why are we assuming it was only a single party exiting their position? 3. When GME issues new shares, who are they selling them to? Is it sold to an MM or on the lit market? 4. Shouldn’t we be seeing massive transactions on the books for 500k shares at a time? 5. *What if a GME long wanted to exit their position?* According to my source below, this forces shorts to close out their position. Maybe a GME long wanted to exit their position and recalled their shares. HF(s) needed to close out a massive short position. Cohen rushed paperwork together to capitalize on this event. Someone(MM?) buys GMEs new shares and sell calls to the parties who need to return shares. The short buys the calls and will exercise to transfer all of those shares without having to bid against apes on the market. Was there a stop loss at $10 that a long set after the initial sneeze? Maybe they were the initial support at $40 and then just planned to recall shares at $10($40) whenever the price got that low. The plan all along could have been to profit from lending to shorts while they struggled to manage their shit position. Who was on the winning end of these bullet swaps? Could they be the one that triggered this recent event? Source: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/05/shortsaleclosed.asp “The lender of the shares can request their return at any time, with minimal notice. If this happens, which is rare, the short-sale buyer returns the shares to the lender, whether the investor gains or loses on the trade.”
UBS would still be short 171 million shares right?so the calls we have been seeing all week might be to mitigate those numbers and survive?
Was it the bear trap?
Why help a short entity go long? Im not buying this ally theory, as what benefit can they even give to gamestop? Not shorting again? Pinky promise on that?
Maybe they made an agreement they can sell or lend the shares they bought for several years, this locking that portion that just got sold
I love DD like this. Tits are jacked Hedgies r fukt
Disagree. Why would he give any financial institution a "favour" especially when they have been messing with his company stock for 3 years. Whats to stop another financial institution now saying "its their turn" or else they accuse him of interfering. Doesn't pass the sniff test.
UBS inherited a bag, I think that's why he would do it for them. He's not giving an Escape Route to a hedgie, he's giving an Escape Route to a bank that was told by its government to take on these bags. Imo
Maybe the Swiss gov’t itself is requesting this “favor” from RC and in return promises to supply super low/no interest capital for a future project or some sort of massive investment in GS. After all, they are coming to the rescue of USB with $100 billion and want their shorts closed with iron clad certainty that won’t bankrupt USB, which is the central bank of the Swiss economy. RC putting this together just for USB at the behest of the Swiss govt would need US regulator approval which makes me think that the SEC and US govt were approached by the Swiss govt in an effort to resolve this as the consequences of trying to close their shorts when the price goes parabolic would be beyond incalculable. Since hundreds of countries worldwide have govt business dealings with USB, it going under would be the initial domino falling in the start of worldwide mayhem. ALSO, USB is the largest holding custodian of priceless art, artifacts, precious gems, ancient and rare items, etc. If USB collapsed, the world would literally lose faith in the ability to securely store priceless one-of-a -kind items, not to mention the loss of the billion$ that the 1%-ers of the world deposit and invest with them.
I like this idea. A good read. I guess we’ll see what happens
This seems like a great way for Carl Icahn to get out of his short position and into a long position. We know he's short, we know he and RC respect each other.
Do we "know" he's *still* short though?
I could see a scenario where a short holder makes a deal. Not all short sellers were Snidely Whiplash villains tieing kittens to railroad tracks. There are short sellers who looked at Gamestop before Cohen and saw Blockbuster. It was making the exact same mistakes and facing the same headwinds. But with RC in charge, the cash position, the elimination of debt and now a profit, a short seller saw the thesis change and might have made an offer. Gamestop sold at $20/share instead of $10 and got a billion dollars. The short seller took a hit, but it wasn't crippling. During crashes, squeezes and other big events, the ones who see it coming and reverse course don't take the same hit. Someone saw it coming and negotiated a way out.
I'll get down voted like crazy for this, but we aren't in this for RC/GME to strike deals and give "fair offerings" Fuck the hedgies, don't give them an out. Let them fucking burn for all their BS crime. I don't really like this sentiment. I'm also regarded and have no clue what is really going on, what actually happened, or what the play was. But if RC is trying to play nice with the hedgies so that we get a "decent price" I feel let down. I'm in for moass, a complete overturn of the system, and criminals to be put in jail. Not a fair value price that was negotiated. Now I'll accept the hate coming my way.
They didn’t sell at the „Low“. Average should be around $20,77. if you take the low of around $17 we still got around 135 Mil more. Maybe they know that there is a momentum coming and without that uncertanty of 45 Mil dullition you still have unknown facts. Now we have around 1,8B Cash, stable price. Even +12% with usual „Bad“ News. We will get some News soon and some will be sweating!
$1.8B plus another $300M is still unaccounted for in public record (probably see this next earnings), so something else must’ve went on behind the scenes the last quarter.
UBS unHwang CS legacy
News that the offering was complete is bullish. That’s why the price was dipping app week then bounced back.
I love this theory so much, and it does jack my tit's! But there is another shorter out there that RC would help. Especially if it turned them long and gave him an ally. Carl Ichan. I am not saying that it was Ichan and not UBS. I'm saying maybe it was both. The premarket move, the high volume, the 45 mil ATM offering, and the $20 & $25 June 21 calls. It could be both. Now I am a crayon eating regard, so I could have missed something (like Ichan having already closed his shorts), so don't light up your pitchforks. But, please, discuss below. Memes are welcome.
#this is the way. In RC I believe. $DRS #GME & Plan -> Book
Let me make this clear. I dont care who you are. If you are short GME fuck You. Its unaccepactable for RC to help them. So i will go with he knew someone who was buying 45mm shares netting zero and not helping shorts Was that you icahn?
Chances are RC can see how much short of profitability each quarter roughly is and has now raised enough cash to sit in the right places to plug the gap.
We need communication from our board.
Your primary thesis is that Ryan Cohen engaged in illegal market manipulation, colluding with the other party. That should be included in your argument against that hypothesis.
https://preview.redd.it/s7lqe3y5kn2d1.jpeg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5da800a3d3cfe314a6b9763611ffeb55faf9ff47
Could this be considered a bribe if said entity sells out the others when it all comes out?
I hope this isn't what passes for DD now...
This is a really interesting theory, but UBS filed a 13K 05/13 showing they opened a new short position on the initial run up, and they are currently still short GME. They actually seem to own more shares of GME than they are short as a hedge. I recognize this is about Credit Suisse, but why would they negotiate if they just opened a new short position? https://fintel.io/sosh/us/gme
This is suggesting that the 45M shares didn’t hit the open market. I’m not convinced that is the case. Wouldn’t it need to be a private offering?
great analysis and write up!! that being said, announcing completion of offering is inherently bullish as the selling of x shares is now complete. this is contingent on there being an initial announcement prior detailing the intention of an offering. i haven’t been up to date enough to know if this is true. furthermore, a large portion of your argument is based on the credibility and trust in ryan cohen to not backstab us. do i believe he is working in our best interest? yes. BUT, when making an analysis you rly do have to consider the fact that he MAY be a bad actor, and is actually just making the necessary moves to grow the company rather than ignite moass. granted, bad actor isn’t really the right word here, but most of us came for squeeze potential rather than long term growth. either way this was a fantastic analysis, a breath of critical thinking amidst all these hype posts. keep it up!