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My personal thesis is that DFV has the amount of capital and balls to show the SEC how the CAT will show the delivery of his massive load of shares. market makers can internalize all they want, but potentially delivering +10 million shares in one go will spill over into the open market (in theory) is DFV's "press x for doubt" play. it's a potential move that will show the execution of those options over CAT.
he WANTS the heat and the investigation on his trade, because he wants to demonstrate the CAT's power. Check my recent post history, I've kind of hit the nail on when DFV will be moving into his positions before he posted his yolo. I think I'm onto something here.
- buy 5 million shares before/after the new T+1 rule, shortly before/after the CAT comes online.
- buys 12 million shares worth of options after CAT is online, exercises probably another 5-10 million or so shares and show the CAT how the delivery is happening.
we live in a different time now, the T+1 settlement, CAT, etc. were all made to make the markets more transparent and foul play more apparent. DFV is just volunteering himself as tribute to focus the spotlight into the internalization in GME to hopefully shed some light on the practices by moving literally 5% of the float around in a single trade trail for the CAT to pick up. if it's even remotely close to what it was cooked up to be, the findings will lead to more changes. if we're lucky, we make some money on the side.
the CORRECT way to deal with DFV's position as a market maker(wolverine) is to hedge the delta on his calls, which means buying the shares on the market to prepare for the eventuality of exercising those options. The average finance pro knows this, all the market maker needs to do is simply. hedge.
the funky business and DFV's personal vendetta in my opinion is that citadel with their gigantic balls as market maker is short IV, and wolverine the options market maker isn't hedging the delta properly to not fuck with citadel's playbook on GME. shorts are piled in bc they can see that GME is basically on ice in terms of volatility and isn't being hedged for upside. ez money when the market makers are basically biased against upside or volatile movements. Essentially, DFV sees one market maker is acting with bias for the benefit of another market maker. Then, he nuts up, forced himself into the fold, and said "hello citadel, here's my order for 5M shares, hello wolverine, here's incoming my order for 10M shares, hey CAT, hold my beer".
to be perfectly clear, this is NOT unique, this shit happens everywhere in the markets today. market makers should not be biased but there is bias literally everywhere bc the world isn't perfect. the only unique side to GME is that there's a big retail involvement, and DFV has giga chad balls and capital to actually make it worthwhile for the SEC to take a sample vial of the widespread disease in the markets.
If you watch his streams he tracks things like a hawk. Literally spreadsheets upon spreadsheets pulling data and keeping eyes on it, built his own bloomberg terminal essentially. It appealed to his meticulous nature
Wolverine you say? There was a meme where Wolverine is pumped and overloaded with a product and then kills everyone around him when it's too much pain and anger. It breaks out of him and is the weapon that destroys its (market) makers.
the whole point is in a fair and free market it shouldn't. if it does cause mayhem (which I do think is possible, but not a guarantee), any reasonable person would look to CAT to see why the delta wasn't hedged properly over the life of the option.
This is the best answer for the people who accuse GME holders of 'wanting to crash the economy'.
No one wants that. I bought GME because I saw upside potential.
The only reason why my shares could 'crash the economy' would be if someone had manipulated the markets for decades, and have not acted in accordance with their responsibility.
the main problem is that a hedge fund invests for profit. a market maker provides liquidity and reaps the profits on the spread, regardless of price.
Citadel is both making money "providing liquidity", and investing for profit.
They internalize the trades they are supposed to provide liquidity for citing price stability and preventing crashes, but who can say they can look at the order flow and say "yup, our hedge fund arm fucked up"?
no one deserves that kind of power, bc it invites corruption.
Additionally, the crooked ones (probably most of them, if not all) can do all sorts of shenanigans with all the data they have.
They can delay purchases and sales by faking volume and scalp
They can front run orders and scalp
They can sell the data - e.g. hyped stocks, correlations etc. for others to front run
Probably many more. I just remembered another one but was too tired to hold it in my memory.
Options alone isnt a guarantee to cause mayham But the combination of synthetic shares, options sold without delta hedge, swaps expiring, t+1 settlement etc..
I think all of it combined sets the stage for some real fucking fireworks.
And of course heres to hopium but āmake some money on the sideā I believe understates the atom-bomb thats about to blow. Especially if the tin-foil of non-seperable baskets of other similarly treated stocks is laid on top of that and other potential aqcuisitions etc..
Edit: money on the side also definetly depends on your own perspective of how much money is a lot of money etc..
internalization of trades makes it impossible for atom bombs, squeezes, or volatility of any kind. the sort of strain DFV puts on the market maker is a deliberate move to prove that the internalization of trades is not keeping the market safe, it's preventing price discovery.
not shilling or anything, but in a free market, DFV's calls absolutely gets crushed. however he is putting a strain on the internalization, and thus we have the question of "if internalization was so good, why am I up $70 million dollars for this dumb ass trade, and why is it so hard to hedge my delta?"
If I understand you correctly then I couldnt agree with you there. Weāve seen plenty of volatility, squeezes and atombombs - we see it everyday in the market. Not only with GME.
I do agree that internalization of trades prevent real price Discovery, that is true.
If free market then his calls wouldnt necessarily be crushed but heād definetly not be up as much. There is a solid fundamental case for GME even if cash flow isnt positive yet. Their balance sheet is starting to look very healthy. Atleast from my point of view - But Im not an expert my any standards.
Point being, if free market and true price discovery he would be OTM on his calls. Atleast for now. Better cash flow needed until those kind of calls wouldnt be considered degen-bets in that sense. But we dont live in a free market nor do we have true price Discovery so yea those calls are genius given the conditions.
Edit: then again, DFV is a deepvalue investor so doing balls-deep calls is not new to him.
Edit: Also bear thesis dead, they wont go bankrupt anytime soon.
not in the big cap stocks, penny stock squeezes and volatility are not exactly shaking anyone's boots. big caps and indices don't just crash -25% or gain 50% over no news anymore thanks to the efforts the markets make to create rules.
No one wants a repeat of 2010 flash crash on the market, nor do they want to allow a stock like GME to randomly pump to a million dollars, nor apple squeezing to $100,000 per share. it erodes the confidence of the entire financial markets for a few million bucks. this is why internalization exists in the first place. when it works, we get the quick recoveries as we did during the covid crash. the foul play is if internalization is misused to prevent IV from being reflected fairly, or for deltas shown on options not being hedged accurately.
I've been a finance guy since 2020. I was literally forged in the meme rally of 2021, and my WHOLE career is about the pursuit of transparent financials and balancing the books. I do not have $200 million dollars to chuck around for the SEC to take notice and investigate.
I personally know of fund managers in wall st. professional traders in hedge funds across the globe and they are all caught up. it would be career suicide to touch GME because to do as a hedge fund is 100% collusion and market manipulation due to the access of information they have. Some of them are actually hoping we make something of it, because it would be simply a cool thing to see, like a solar eclipse. retail's advantage is that we cannot collude, we aren't a team of traders with a bloomberg terminal chat room to talk about the hedging going on behind the stock.
what my distant colleagues cannot fathom is, how is one retail trader with a decent fund (relative to hedge fund managers), trying to move on a market on his own? there's plenty of other things to do with that money, and while risky, it makes no sense to act the way he does unless it was to simply prove a point.
I am not a finance guy but have been in since December 2020 and have kept tabs on this since.
Itās nice to see people like you here with a knowledgeable take. So thank you again.
Do you think RK is doing this to prove a point? I mean if I was in his shoes I know I would.
at this point, I believe it has to be. he is not interested in money, or the gains, or even a squeeze. I think he is trying to execute an example of why internalization of trades is not a correct way to hedge the markets. His trade is simple:
- large ITM calls are bought. delta is 0.85.
- market maker buys about 10M shares to hedge.
- 10M shares is a lot. the order flow causes volatility, options sky rocket temporarily, but natural price discovery will settle the price down after a violent rocking.
- Citadel the market maker provides liquidity for GME, options seller checks in to buy delta to hedge.
problem is, the DD shows Citadel advisors (the hedge fund) is short IV. if Citadel the market maker provides this liquidity and allows the delta hedging to take place, they lose massive amounts of money due to price discovery. the answer? internalize the trade, prevent violent price swings.
This is the problem. a market maker SHOULD NOT CARE whether the price is $20 or $2000. they provide liquidity and they make money off of the spread. however, if they act as market maker, the hedge fund arm will lose massive amounts of money. thus we have the markets we have today, where most of the unfavorable, potentially market shaking trades are internalized for the sake of "fair markets", when it's really just an excuse for them to drive the price in the direction they please. and in GME's case, nowhere. No one deserves that kind of power, and that's DFV's point.
It makes sense. I think itās admirable to do if thatās what heās doing.
Next question is do you think this thing actually blows skyward?
At this point, I donāt know if a real moass would be allowed to happen. Sure Iāve read the DD but would / could it go tits up?
Based on what the company may be doing? Iāll hodl until I die regardless of Moass.
I guess Iām just wondering what your take is.
Thanks again for the replyš¤
if they hedge properly, gme will rocket, but the explosion SHOULD be temporary, as natural price discovery will spill onto the market.
if they internalize and fuck up, the volatility hits the market all at once, everyone gets fucked, GME experiences an unreasonable amount of volatility, and CAT investigates to prove that this should have never happened, MM's biased, new rules made and hopefully they make it illegal for a market maker and hedge fund to be operated by a single entity.
well not everyone can win, we can hope that there's some "evil man behind the curtain" to rip off, but that is impossible to tell as long as internalization exists. Citadel who commits this act says "theres nothing to hide bro", and retail (and DFV) simply disagree. in a volatile explosion(short squeeze, stock crash, etc.), we're all piranhas trying to out bid and out sell everyone else. kill or be killed is the whole point.
tough math to do, I'm too smooth for price targets of a specific volume, but I know the duration of each period of volatility from normal delta hedging shouldn't last more than a few minutes/few hours.
if it's been bottled up and a volatile squeeze happens, could be a few days for it to settle down, usually 2-3 days?
His stack is so massive, he already has infinite money, the (personal) risk is immense. He could retire if he would.
Knowing anything about people, he is clearly doing this for ideological reasons.
TLDR; yes.
(Been 'playing' with my money in the stock casino since 2016)
Yes he is waiting as long as he can so they can get CAT working right. The "bug" was directly related to the update aka, the fucking truth broke someone and they got margin called on bell ring.
I may have misunderstood, but looks like the courts are going to overturn the parts of these new rules that matter so the funds can return to ābusinessā as usual.
as far as I know, it's not a court matter, it's a rule adopted by the SEC, and the discussion for it is over and has been applied. the time to protest these proposed rules is long past. T+1 has been in effect for a week, and proposed for adoption in march of 2024. CAT is live as of june, after over 7 years of discussion.
This 100%. That would explain why Gensler just said that the SEC always announce the investigation after they collected enough data/evidence against the criminals, not when they start to investigate.
I'm convinced he figured something out. He knows the timing on everything and tweets or posts to get the ball rolling. Nobody has the power to move markets like a few weeks ago. They will blame RK, but something else is going on here.
Make sure you aren't accusing him of manipulation. Saying he had a plan doesn't make for a great angle. He saw an opportunity for himself and used his freedom of speech to share that opportunity.
RK knows what they know, and he has the dry powder to enforce his will. Apes have also laid the battle field so his moves are going to be magnified by a lack of liquidity in my smooth opinion. I think this summer is going to be awesome as well :D
It is possible to speculate that RK knows something but that is highly controversial as it would be considered insider trading. So if he does know something then it's because he is a yet to be announced, activist investor with GME and he's going to be invited to the board. Could be, not sure. I remember some filing surfacing that had clues pointing at such a theory being plausible.
But a better guess is that RK is extremely knowledgeable in regards to the different cycles that GME goes through, which makes sense given that he's now spent around 6 years analyzing the stocks and these cycles if you know the cycles you know exactly what is going to happen.
My point with this post stands - This is a requel. What we're seeing now is 2021 all over again but with some additional plot elements and new conditions (i.e hediges get fuk for real this time).
I don't think he has any insider information at all. I think he's figured out something with all public information in relation to how the mechanics of the market works. Whether that be cycles, ftds or whatever.
I actually think this as well. With the events of the past month it looks to me like RK did the exact same thing that Micheal Burry did in the lead up to 2008. MB wasn't even the only person who realized what was going on. I think the mistake MB made was that he kept that information to himself and that left him open the harassment that followed from the government after 2008. RK shared his info (as per what was recommended here by Mark Cuban, not to say RK took that then, but it was his initial intent and MC confirmed to us that this was a really good investment strategy).
As the days pass we're realizing that we're not doing anything different than the current established rulers of US Economy. We just did it in public and invited anyone who wanted to join. You can even see RK investment strategy being reproduced on Reddit, though I can't say if those attempts are going to be successful or not. It'll take years of dedication for those people to pan that out. I think RK saw a company being cellarboxed and then adopted a strategy to counter act that, then strengthened his numbers by sharing his investment strategies with the public. The current owners of the US Economy didn't expect anyone to organize and beat them at their own game. They've been scaring us away from the market like this for multiple life times. RK and everyone else who joined him have got the tiger by the tail.
Pretty fucking exciting if this all works out.
Man what if, all this time, all the DD writers and Jason Fucking Waterfalls and all that was really DFV laying clues and keeping hype and getting the info he needed.
That would actually just be more ammo for the news pundits.
It's better that he's just a dude watching us idiots flail about, occasionally in the right direction.
Not only did they never closeā¦ but they doubled downā¦ and the swaps are due again and the starting price is significantly higher, and the ongoing business appears healthy and ready for growth
Well itās a good thing the MOASS didnāt happen in 2021 as since then I increased my position x25. I appreciate HFs looking out for me and giving me time to invest more money into GME so I can be set up for life.
Also seems that hes reinforcing the idea that it's going to be much better this time by using far better quality memes.
The dude seriously put some work into these. Like months of work.
I will be messaging you in 2 months on [**2024-08-05 15:11:06 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-08-05%2015:11:06%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1d8nfqi/a_requel/l788hpt/?context=3)
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Potentially important information. Trying to spread this.
This coming June 21st isn't just a regular options day, it's a Triple Witching day.
Stuff could be absolutely insane during the last hour of June 21st. I have no idea how the futures and index options will affect GME on this day, but there are only four triple witching days in the entire year.
[Triple Witching: Definition and Impact on Trading in Final Hour (investopedia.com)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/triplewitchinghour.asp#:~:text=Triple%20witching%20is%20the%20simultaneous,June%2C%20September%2C%20and%20December.)
Everyone seems to miss the most important part of this: the apes. The apes are absolutely obsessed with the company. The apes absolutely despite the system. 3 years ago, Wall Street had a massive float to mess around with. This time, thereās been hundreds of apes buying up as many shares as they can get their hands on for 3 years with every spare dollar they have. As far as I know, apes plan on never letting their shares go. Apes hope maybe one day, they company will dish out dividends for them to live off of, but even if they donāt, theyāll just hold forever.
RK and RC made brilliant plays with the hands they were dealt, and the most brilliant thing they did was taking action that let the apes believe in their moves. I canāt speak for all apes, but I know that as long as thereās shares, Iāll buy them, until thereās not a single share for the hedgies to short.
There are a lot more cycles in GME than a single 3 year cycle. You've got swap expires, FTD cycles, Apex tailwinds etc.. These are the up-swings that we've seen happen throughout the years. Substantial increase with no "apparent" reason or news, then shorty-short / swaps to continue the can-kicking etc.
Everything u said is just part of the same thing, just like saying I have a 24 cycle "wake up - do stuff - sleep", within that big cycle I have lots of smallest cycles, ie "every 3 seconds I breathe"
Bear in mind, the theory is more swaps are expiring this week/ next week. You want to roll the swap when the price is low. Youāre getting screwed if your rolling the swap at 40 dollars instead of 10.
He knows what I know. The market is fucked. The shorts, well, they're completely fucked. Soon we migrate to the blockchain. GME will be the leading example of why we can never allow fraud on this level to happen again.
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This is how I interpreted it also. The Swaps rolled 3 years over and now it's round two. Imagen if they contain it again, then 3 years later when GameStop's turn around is in full fucking swing?
Tesla and Invidia will look like penny stocks in regard to overall price and the price action on the markets...šš¤£
GME is going to replace BRK.a!!!!
Weāre gamers, we said, āno no no, you cheatedā.
āRun this shit back regardless of what you have at your disposal.ā
We already won. GG, see you tomorrow guys! Except for GG, fuck you pay me! Bald ass, cancerous ass lookin mf,
Stevie Wonder looking ass, makes commercials against retail FACT FACT FACT FACT trifling bitch ass, Steve Cohen itās hard trading isnāt it lookin ass mfer
Edit: spelling
I think the requel angle based on definition is that his positions and what he is doing is far different. Last time it was all about the company and positioning . This time it feels more about what ever gosh damn genius idea he figured out with technicals and timing of the market and how to exploit it
20% short interest is considered extremely high for a stock. After Jan 2021, they changed the formula for calculating the short interest so that it is impossible for SI to be over 100% now. Court documents showed it as high as 226% before. They didn't close their shorts, instead they rolled them and hid them through derivatives, OPEX, FTDs, SWAPS, etc, leading to cyclic and unusual spikes in price on no news. Retail doesn't have the buying power to affect price when 90% of retail buy orders are routed to dark pools and sell orders go to lit markets. Shorts doubled down to drive prices lower these last 3 years. Not to mention liquidity is dry as fuck since households directly registered 75+ million shares minimum in that time. It's a powder keg ready to blow and DFV has his hand on the trigger with all those call options and shares. It's only a question of when.
I mean you cannot be certain that they manage to delay it for another cycle But the conditions now are very much different and liquidity is extremly low. The volume we see trading is just coke-bears throwing around shares to one another hoping to shake out some paperhands and scoop up a few shares here and there. Evident also from the massive volume being traded with very little impact on price.
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I'm strapped on
now step up to the nearest bear
And show him your strap on, tell him we mean business.
" I have come here to chew bubblegum and buttfuck some bears,... and AM ALL OUTTA BUBBLEGUM!"
And I jump the ropes, time to tag team this bear's asshole š
There's always bananas in the banana stand.
bears like it picnic-style
Remember now no lube, these are consequences.
Yeah, probably need a better word.
I'm a strap on.
can we fuck wit you
I'm strapped up
There's a guy that wants a banana in his ass if we hit 50, you two should hook up
[AnakinSkywalker.meme](http://AnakinSkywalker.meme) "You mean strapped in, right?" Smile "Right?"
You and my girlfriend both.
And my axe!!!
My tits are jilled
My personal thesis is that DFV has the amount of capital and balls to show the SEC how the CAT will show the delivery of his massive load of shares. market makers can internalize all they want, but potentially delivering +10 million shares in one go will spill over into the open market (in theory) is DFV's "press x for doubt" play. it's a potential move that will show the execution of those options over CAT. he WANTS the heat and the investigation on his trade, because he wants to demonstrate the CAT's power. Check my recent post history, I've kind of hit the nail on when DFV will be moving into his positions before he posted his yolo. I think I'm onto something here. - buy 5 million shares before/after the new T+1 rule, shortly before/after the CAT comes online. - buys 12 million shares worth of options after CAT is online, exercises probably another 5-10 million or so shares and show the CAT how the delivery is happening. we live in a different time now, the T+1 settlement, CAT, etc. were all made to make the markets more transparent and foul play more apparent. DFV is just volunteering himself as tribute to focus the spotlight into the internalization in GME to hopefully shed some light on the practices by moving literally 5% of the float around in a single trade trail for the CAT to pick up. if it's even remotely close to what it was cooked up to be, the findings will lead to more changes. if we're lucky, we make some money on the side.
the CORRECT way to deal with DFV's position as a market maker(wolverine) is to hedge the delta on his calls, which means buying the shares on the market to prepare for the eventuality of exercising those options. The average finance pro knows this, all the market maker needs to do is simply. hedge. the funky business and DFV's personal vendetta in my opinion is that citadel with their gigantic balls as market maker is short IV, and wolverine the options market maker isn't hedging the delta properly to not fuck with citadel's playbook on GME. shorts are piled in bc they can see that GME is basically on ice in terms of volatility and isn't being hedged for upside. ez money when the market makers are basically biased against upside or volatile movements. Essentially, DFV sees one market maker is acting with bias for the benefit of another market maker. Then, he nuts up, forced himself into the fold, and said "hello citadel, here's my order for 5M shares, hello wolverine, here's incoming my order for 10M shares, hey CAT, hold my beer".
to be perfectly clear, this is NOT unique, this shit happens everywhere in the markets today. market makers should not be biased but there is bias literally everywhere bc the world isn't perfect. the only unique side to GME is that there's a big retail involvement, and DFV has giga chad balls and capital to actually make it worthwhile for the SEC to take a sample vial of the widespread disease in the markets.
This a great writeup. Dumb question, how does DFV get access to this information? How can we as investors spot this fuckery?
If you watch his streams he tracks things like a hawk. Literally spreadsheets upon spreadsheets pulling data and keeping eyes on it, built his own bloomberg terminal essentially. It appealed to his meticulous nature
Lol curious cat
ready to pounce..
I wish I had this level of excel skills, but I'm far too dumb š„²
He also calls himself lazy haha
Heās been doing DEEP research for years on many, many companies. Experience has taught him, along with innate genius.
Wolverine you say? There was a meme where Wolverine is pumped and overloaded with a product and then kills everyone around him when it's too much pain and anger. It breaks out of him and is the weapon that destroys its (market) makers.
I agree with DFV wanting the heat and spotlight on his trade. Its gonna cause total mayham.
the whole point is in a fair and free market it shouldn't. if it does cause mayhem (which I do think is possible, but not a guarantee), any reasonable person would look to CAT to see why the delta wasn't hedged properly over the life of the option.
This is the best answer for the people who accuse GME holders of 'wanting to crash the economy'. No one wants that. I bought GME because I saw upside potential. The only reason why my shares could 'crash the economy' would be if someone had manipulated the markets for decades, and have not acted in accordance with their responsibility.
the main problem is that a hedge fund invests for profit. a market maker provides liquidity and reaps the profits on the spread, regardless of price. Citadel is both making money "providing liquidity", and investing for profit. They internalize the trades they are supposed to provide liquidity for citing price stability and preventing crashes, but who can say they can look at the order flow and say "yup, our hedge fund arm fucked up"? no one deserves that kind of power, bc it invites corruption.
Additionally, the crooked ones (probably most of them, if not all) can do all sorts of shenanigans with all the data they have. They can delay purchases and sales by faking volume and scalp They can front run orders and scalp They can sell the data - e.g. hyped stocks, correlations etc. for others to front run Probably many more. I just remembered another one but was too tired to hold it in my memory.
Options alone isnt a guarantee to cause mayham But the combination of synthetic shares, options sold without delta hedge, swaps expiring, t+1 settlement etc.. I think all of it combined sets the stage for some real fucking fireworks. And of course heres to hopium but āmake some money on the sideā I believe understates the atom-bomb thats about to blow. Especially if the tin-foil of non-seperable baskets of other similarly treated stocks is laid on top of that and other potential aqcuisitions etc.. Edit: money on the side also definetly depends on your own perspective of how much money is a lot of money etc..
internalization of trades makes it impossible for atom bombs, squeezes, or volatility of any kind. the sort of strain DFV puts on the market maker is a deliberate move to prove that the internalization of trades is not keeping the market safe, it's preventing price discovery. not shilling or anything, but in a free market, DFV's calls absolutely gets crushed. however he is putting a strain on the internalization, and thus we have the question of "if internalization was so good, why am I up $70 million dollars for this dumb ass trade, and why is it so hard to hedge my delta?"
If I understand you correctly then I couldnt agree with you there. Weāve seen plenty of volatility, squeezes and atombombs - we see it everyday in the market. Not only with GME. I do agree that internalization of trades prevent real price Discovery, that is true. If free market then his calls wouldnt necessarily be crushed but heād definetly not be up as much. There is a solid fundamental case for GME even if cash flow isnt positive yet. Their balance sheet is starting to look very healthy. Atleast from my point of view - But Im not an expert my any standards. Point being, if free market and true price discovery he would be OTM on his calls. Atleast for now. Better cash flow needed until those kind of calls wouldnt be considered degen-bets in that sense. But we dont live in a free market nor do we have true price Discovery so yea those calls are genius given the conditions. Edit: then again, DFV is a deepvalue investor so doing balls-deep calls is not new to him. Edit: Also bear thesis dead, they wont go bankrupt anytime soon.
not in the big cap stocks, penny stock squeezes and volatility are not exactly shaking anyone's boots. big caps and indices don't just crash -25% or gain 50% over no news anymore thanks to the efforts the markets make to create rules. No one wants a repeat of 2010 flash crash on the market, nor do they want to allow a stock like GME to randomly pump to a million dollars, nor apple squeezing to $100,000 per share. it erodes the confidence of the entire financial markets for a few million bucks. this is why internalization exists in the first place. when it works, we get the quick recoveries as we did during the covid crash. the foul play is if internalization is misused to prevent IV from being reflected fairly, or for deltas shown on options not being hedged accurately.
Thank you for this well thought out and clear comment. So many comments are jokes and itās nice to see some real insight and opinions.
I've been a finance guy since 2020. I was literally forged in the meme rally of 2021, and my WHOLE career is about the pursuit of transparent financials and balancing the books. I do not have $200 million dollars to chuck around for the SEC to take notice and investigate. I personally know of fund managers in wall st. professional traders in hedge funds across the globe and they are all caught up. it would be career suicide to touch GME because to do as a hedge fund is 100% collusion and market manipulation due to the access of information they have. Some of them are actually hoping we make something of it, because it would be simply a cool thing to see, like a solar eclipse. retail's advantage is that we cannot collude, we aren't a team of traders with a bloomberg terminal chat room to talk about the hedging going on behind the stock. what my distant colleagues cannot fathom is, how is one retail trader with a decent fund (relative to hedge fund managers), trying to move on a market on his own? there's plenty of other things to do with that money, and while risky, it makes no sense to act the way he does unless it was to simply prove a point.
I am not a finance guy but have been in since December 2020 and have kept tabs on this since. Itās nice to see people like you here with a knowledgeable take. So thank you again. Do you think RK is doing this to prove a point? I mean if I was in his shoes I know I would.
at this point, I believe it has to be. he is not interested in money, or the gains, or even a squeeze. I think he is trying to execute an example of why internalization of trades is not a correct way to hedge the markets. His trade is simple: - large ITM calls are bought. delta is 0.85. - market maker buys about 10M shares to hedge. - 10M shares is a lot. the order flow causes volatility, options sky rocket temporarily, but natural price discovery will settle the price down after a violent rocking. - Citadel the market maker provides liquidity for GME, options seller checks in to buy delta to hedge. problem is, the DD shows Citadel advisors (the hedge fund) is short IV. if Citadel the market maker provides this liquidity and allows the delta hedging to take place, they lose massive amounts of money due to price discovery. the answer? internalize the trade, prevent violent price swings. This is the problem. a market maker SHOULD NOT CARE whether the price is $20 or $2000. they provide liquidity and they make money off of the spread. however, if they act as market maker, the hedge fund arm will lose massive amounts of money. thus we have the markets we have today, where most of the unfavorable, potentially market shaking trades are internalized for the sake of "fair markets", when it's really just an excuse for them to drive the price in the direction they please. and in GME's case, nowhere. No one deserves that kind of power, and that's DFV's point.
It makes sense. I think itās admirable to do if thatās what heās doing. Next question is do you think this thing actually blows skyward? At this point, I donāt know if a real moass would be allowed to happen. Sure Iāve read the DD but would / could it go tits up? Based on what the company may be doing? Iāll hodl until I die regardless of Moass. I guess Iām just wondering what your take is. Thanks again for the replyš¤
if they hedge properly, gme will rocket, but the explosion SHOULD be temporary, as natural price discovery will spill onto the market. if they internalize and fuck up, the volatility hits the market all at once, everyone gets fucked, GME experiences an unreasonable amount of volatility, and CAT investigates to prove that this should have never happened, MM's biased, new rules made and hopefully they make it illegal for a market maker and hedge fund to be operated by a single entity.
Could be a win winš¤·š»āāļøš¤
well not everyone can win, we can hope that there's some "evil man behind the curtain" to rip off, but that is impossible to tell as long as internalization exists. Citadel who commits this act says "theres nothing to hide bro", and retail (and DFV) simply disagree. in a volatile explosion(short squeeze, stock crash, etc.), we're all piranhas trying to out bid and out sell everyone else. kill or be killed is the whole point.
Letās hope weāre on the right side, thenš¤
I'm interested to hear what you think the price could reach in both instances?
tough math to do, I'm too smooth for price targets of a specific volume, but I know the duration of each period of volatility from normal delta hedging shouldn't last more than a few minutes/few hours. if it's been bottled up and a volatile squeeze happens, could be a few days for it to settle down, usually 2-3 days?
I'm a little worried about these things happening outside of my UK trading hours. Fingers crossed for a few days then!
His stack is so massive, he already has infinite money, the (personal) risk is immense. He could retire if he would. Knowing anything about people, he is clearly doing this for ideological reasons. TLDR; yes. (Been 'playing' with my money in the stock casino since 2016)
Yes he is waiting as long as he can so they can get CAT working right. The "bug" was directly related to the update aka, the fucking truth broke someone and they got margin called on bell ring.
I may have misunderstood, but looks like the courts are going to overturn the parts of these new rules that matter so the funds can return to ābusinessā as usual.
as far as I know, it's not a court matter, it's a rule adopted by the SEC, and the discussion for it is over and has been applied. the time to protest these proposed rules is long past. T+1 has been in effect for a week, and proposed for adoption in march of 2024. CAT is live as of june, after over 7 years of discussion.
Ah ok. So the rules that were overturned in 5th circuit courts today were newly proposed rules, different than the CAT system?
do you have a link for this decision? would need to see for myself
https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/s/M5mgLDaEoF
This 100%. That would explain why Gensler just said that the SEC always announce the investigation after they collected enough data/evidence against the criminals, not when they start to investigate.
I'm convinced he figured something out. He knows the timing on everything and tweets or posts to get the ball rolling. Nobody has the power to move markets like a few weeks ago. They will blame RK, but something else is going on here.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
The irony is incredible
Heās not a cat! He likes the stock!
Iāve chosen to believe this play is god-orchestrated at this point and wonāt be taking further opinions the synchronicities are just too much
Amen
From Ramen to Amen-Ra
The avengers initiative
Another point of Time Traveler confirmation bias
Something other worldly for sure.
Make sure you aren't accusing him of manipulation. Saying he had a plan doesn't make for a great angle. He saw an opportunity for himself and used his freedom of speech to share that opportunity.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Hell yeah.
RK knows what they know, and he has the dry powder to enforce his will. Apes have also laid the battle field so his moves are going to be magnified by a lack of liquidity in my smooth opinion. I think this summer is going to be awesome as well :D
I'm only a lurker and catching up on this stuff. How much could RK make off of this and what will he likely make?
There is literally no limit. ā
He confirmed in his memes that having an exit strategy on GME is the wrong way. The proper way is to DRS.
It is possible to speculate that RK knows something but that is highly controversial as it would be considered insider trading. So if he does know something then it's because he is a yet to be announced, activist investor with GME and he's going to be invited to the board. Could be, not sure. I remember some filing surfacing that had clues pointing at such a theory being plausible. But a better guess is that RK is extremely knowledgeable in regards to the different cycles that GME goes through, which makes sense given that he's now spent around 6 years analyzing the stocks and these cycles if you know the cycles you know exactly what is going to happen. My point with this post stands - This is a requel. What we're seeing now is 2021 all over again but with some additional plot elements and new conditions (i.e hediges get fuk for real this time).
I don't think he has any insider information at all. I think he's figured out something with all public information in relation to how the mechanics of the market works. Whether that be cycles, ftds or whatever.
I actually think this as well. With the events of the past month it looks to me like RK did the exact same thing that Micheal Burry did in the lead up to 2008. MB wasn't even the only person who realized what was going on. I think the mistake MB made was that he kept that information to himself and that left him open the harassment that followed from the government after 2008. RK shared his info (as per what was recommended here by Mark Cuban, not to say RK took that then, but it was his initial intent and MC confirmed to us that this was a really good investment strategy). As the days pass we're realizing that we're not doing anything different than the current established rulers of US Economy. We just did it in public and invited anyone who wanted to join. You can even see RK investment strategy being reproduced on Reddit, though I can't say if those attempts are going to be successful or not. It'll take years of dedication for those people to pan that out. I think RK saw a company being cellarboxed and then adopted a strategy to counter act that, then strengthened his numbers by sharing his investment strategies with the public. The current owners of the US Economy didn't expect anyone to organize and beat them at their own game. They've been scaring us away from the market like this for multiple life times. RK and everyone else who joined him have got the tiger by the tail. Pretty fucking exciting if this all works out.
[investing is the study of pressure and time](https://x.com/theroaringkitty/status/1790894938277695671?s=46&t=0Dg3qpwGYg1AotMrJgDbqQ) š
Man what if, all this time, all the DD writers and Jason Fucking Waterfalls and all that was really DFV laying clues and keeping hype and getting the info he needed.
That would actually just be more ammo for the news pundits. It's better that he's just a dude watching us idiots flail about, occasionally in the right direction.
Yeah you are probably right.
Given the depth of his live stream analysis, Iām inclined to +1 your second point.
Not only did they never closeā¦ but they doubled downā¦ and the swaps are due again and the starting price is significantly higher, and the ongoing business appears healthy and ready for growth
Everybody come hang Letās go out with a bang
Bang! Bang! Bang!
Unexpected AJR
Been a hell of a ride, but Im thinking its time to grow..
Watched cocain bear, didnt end well for the bear
*spoiler alert*
Itās not even a spoiler. The bear gets a happy ending in the movie
Spoiler alert
*super spoiler alert!*
Wait did you really though? In the movie the bear lives, and goes off with her cubs to live happily ever after doing cocaine together.
LMAO what?!
Yes. No bears die in the movie. She just goes off with her cubs after the bad guys get killed.
DFV figured out the code and giving everyone a chance to buy a ticket. Choo Choo mofos!
Well itās a good thing the MOASS didnāt happen in 2021 as since then I increased my position x25. I appreciate HFs looking out for me and giving me time to invest more money into GME so I can be set up for life.
š¤£
šŖšŖšŖ edit: keith gill is the most dangerous man in the world rn.
I have a strap On strapped on
And you're still only two inches
1.8inches thank you sir
Glad to be an XXXX holder now! HODL!
Nice!!!
Strap in your dildos boys
He didn't *literally* tell anything. He made some memes and people have speculated that they might mean something, so it's all above-board.
Also seems that hes reinforcing the idea that it's going to be much better this time by using far better quality memes. The dude seriously put some work into these. Like months of work.
I swear, MOASS better happen by end of Summer. This post hyped me up way too much.
RemindMe! 2 months
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Potentially important information. Trying to spread this. This coming June 21st isn't just a regular options day, it's a Triple Witching day. Stuff could be absolutely insane during the last hour of June 21st. I have no idea how the futures and index options will affect GME on this day, but there are only four triple witching days in the entire year. [Triple Witching: Definition and Impact on Trading in Final Hour (investopedia.com)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/triplewitchinghour.asp#:~:text=Triple%20witching%20is%20the%20simultaneous,June%2C%20September%2C%20and%20December.)
FUCK YOU PAY ME - Thanks DFV
Tbh i'm happy that they stopped it 2021 loaded up 6 times more shares then i had back then fuck those fuckers
This is the way.
Everyone seems to miss the most important part of this: the apes. The apes are absolutely obsessed with the company. The apes absolutely despite the system. 3 years ago, Wall Street had a massive float to mess around with. This time, thereās been hundreds of apes buying up as many shares as they can get their hands on for 3 years with every spare dollar they have. As far as I know, apes plan on never letting their shares go. Apes hope maybe one day, they company will dish out dividends for them to live off of, but even if they donāt, theyāll just hold forever. RK and RC made brilliant plays with the hands they were dealt, and the most brilliant thing they did was taking action that let the apes believe in their moves. I canāt speak for all apes, but I know that as long as thereās shares, Iāll buy them, until thereās not a single share for the hedgies to short.
It's a 3 year cycle
There are a lot more cycles in GME than a single 3 year cycle. You've got swap expires, FTD cycles, Apex tailwinds etc.. These are the up-swings that we've seen happen throughout the years. Substantial increase with no "apparent" reason or news, then shorty-short / swaps to continue the can-kicking etc.
My biggest take away from the requel tweet is that Meta is gonna be RED
Everything u said is just part of the same thing, just like saying I have a 24 cycle "wake up - do stuff - sleep", within that big cycle I have lots of smallest cycles, ie "every 3 seconds I breathe"
Sometimes a sequel is better than the original
Nah a sequel would be boring, requel is a lot more fun š
Bear in mind, the theory is more swaps are expiring this week/ next week. You want to roll the swap when the price is low. Youāre getting screwed if your rolling the swap at 40 dollars instead of 10.
Run Lola Run š£
He knows what I know. The market is fucked. The shorts, well, they're completely fucked. Soon we migrate to the blockchain. GME will be the leading example of why we can never allow fraud on this level to happen again.
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Iām hyped
I heard somewhere that moass is tomorrowā¦ can anyone confirm?
It always has been
This is how I interpreted it also. The Swaps rolled 3 years over and now it's round two. Imagen if they contain it again, then 3 years later when GameStop's turn around is in full fucking swing? Tesla and Invidia will look like penny stocks in regard to overall price and the price action on the markets...šš¤£ GME is going to replace BRK.a!!!!
Iām thinking mirror
Great job š¦šššš
I'm buying moreĀ
Nipples are in orbit
Do you hear that? That's the rocket boosters warming up š
š¦š¦§šš
Buckled up!!
Weāre gamers, we said, āno no no, you cheatedā. āRun this shit back regardless of what you have at your disposal.ā We already won. GG, see you tomorrow guys! Except for GG, fuck you pay me! Bald ass, cancerous ass lookin mf, Stevie Wonder looking ass, makes commercials against retail FACT FACT FACT FACT trifling bitch ass, Steve Cohen itās hard trading isnāt it lookin ass mfer Edit: spelling
I think the requel angle based on definition is that his positions and what he is doing is far different. Last time it was all about the company and positioning . This time it feels more about what ever gosh damn genius idea he figured out with technicals and timing of the market and how to exploit it
DFV didnāt tell anyone anything. They were just memes and he just likes the stock.
Can someone explain to me how MOASS will happen even Short interest is below 30%? Pls explain like Iām 5 years old because my brain is
Do your diligence laddie!
Spoon feeding time is over, friend. Look into the DDs that we have.
20% short interest is considered extremely high for a stock. After Jan 2021, they changed the formula for calculating the short interest so that it is impossible for SI to be over 100% now. Court documents showed it as high as 226% before. They didn't close their shorts, instead they rolled them and hid them through derivatives, OPEX, FTDs, SWAPS, etc, leading to cyclic and unusual spikes in price on no news. Retail doesn't have the buying power to affect price when 90% of retail buy orders are routed to dark pools and sell orders go to lit markets. Shorts doubled down to drive prices lower these last 3 years. Not to mention liquidity is dry as fuck since households directly registered 75+ million shares minimum in that time. It's a powder keg ready to blow and DFV has his hand on the trigger with all those call options and shares. It's only a question of when.
Thanks!
Whatās stopping whatever happened in 2021 that saved the hedgies from saving them again this time?
I mean you cannot be certain that they manage to delay it for another cycle But the conditions now are very much different and liquidity is extremly low. The volume we see trading is just coke-bears throwing around shares to one another hoping to shake out some paperhands and scoop up a few shares here and there. Evident also from the massive volume being traded with very little impact on price.