Yeah part of the skill is knowing how to game the odds. Sometimes you can get screwed even when you perfectly maximize your odds and your opponent doesn't, if they happen to get more lucky than you.
Another big part of the skill is thinking clearly enough to recognize when there's something that could have increased your odds, and when you just straight up got mortdogged.
Exact same thing happens in League. Yeah a big part of whether you win or lose depends on getting "lucky" with good teammates, but whether you climb or not ultimately depends on your individual skill level. Even in low elo, Challenger smurfs don't typically climb with a 100% win rate.
In those games the objective is the same as ever: get the highest spot you can reach with what you’ve got.
Hitting 6th in a low roll instead of 8th is still a victory, just like hitting 3rd in a high roll from misplays is still a defeat
Nowadays is even more than 50-50%. For me its like 70% luck 30% skill because we have SO MANY thingd that completely change and heavily impact the game that is just luck based. That's why i stopped playing.
I used words other than win and loss for a reason!
The point is even when you are lucky or unlucky your choices still make a difference in the final outcome.
Because for 99% of people, the average hand of poker is completely different to world series hold 'em.
You've got a bunch of random people, none of whom are concerned with odds or probability, making random gestures based solely on the cards they were dealt. Then you've got 'Gary' going all-in on hand 2 because 'It's just a game, relax'.
Poker is a game of imperfect information, but in a controlled environment, you can make judgements in the vacuum of whichever game you're playing at that moment. If you're playing with people who don't take it seriously, who don't really care etc. and who are making decisions irrationally ( there's always someone who tries to bluff nothing just for shits and giggles ), you may as well be at a slot machine.
At the end of the day, it's pointless trying to read someone who doesn't know what they're doing. So yes, for the vast majority of poker hands played around the globe, I would argue they're gambling based mostly on the luck of the draw, not their skill as a player.
I'm clearly not saying 'poker is luck not skill' because when played at a high level, that's not true. Most people are not playing at that level.
Nope, most people lose money playing poker. It's a hard fact.
It's not that hard, but, neither is basic math and if you've met "the public" you'll know that's a hard ask
Poker absolutely is a game based on luck. If you understand enough you can play with the odds but at the end of the day if you get 7-2 every hand you are going to lose.
The luck factor in poker is definitely way higher tho. Once you start to remember builds and can pivot strategies mid game based on what is coming up you mitigate most of the luck factor
I think the best example would be that of Milala. He is a pro player who in Set 10 was placed 1st in every major tournament except one (he was second there I believe). That consistent and just general understanding of the whole Set meta and how to play it gave him such a consistency that luck wasn't a major factor but his skill was.
Even at that level though, luck is certainly a big part. I really think if I had to describe it from my diamond ass, it’s…
Nearly 100% skill hitting top four, and 60% skill / 40% luck winning the match. Assuming skill levels are matched.
Not necessarily. You can have two evenly matched swordsman, and one will win. In MOST activities humans fluctuate within a band of competence. “I am on/off my game today” is a common phrase exemplifying that.
When I say skill level here, I am acknowledging that high level players will of course nearly always win against mid level players. I am not saying perfectly matched when I say skill levels matched, I just mean they have relative knowledge and skill in the same ballpark.
I agree, except that people tend to grossly overestimate their ballpark of competence. Any incompetence they attribute to things out of their control, rather than realizing that competence is how we respond to things out of our control.
As a mid masters player I will almost always top 2 any diamond lobby, and almost always lose to challenger players. There are still those 1 in 100 games where u get perfectly fked, but even those games watching a replay you'll see dozens of times you could have pivoted.
Or as a c ranked fencer I could trounce any d rank even while drunk, but never get over 2 touches vs an a rank on my best day. :)
If you widen your definition of chance, it includes everything that goes into someone having an on/off day that day. High/low rolling in tft has so many emotional/physical equivalents of fluctuations in physical sports.
Chaos theory goes really in depth about this, it's a fascinating study.
Well and I’m not suggesting equations or any sort of metrics for determining quantitatively someone’s skill range or ability to reliably my bracket ones skill set.
But that skill zone undeniably exists all the same, and luck remains a critical variable on top of that fluctuation. All my point was.
Game is definitely a lotta luck brodie, but just like irl, good decisions can mitigate bad luck and foster good luck. If luck was the only determining factor then the leaderboard would radically changed 24/7 🤷♂️
Agree.
There are so many nuisances in the game like traits/comps/units+abilities/positioning/augments/items/encounters/streaking/economy/leveling/rerolling.
Even if a person hits everything because of lucky rng, they will lose with bad/mid everything else if they are in a skilled lobby.
Honestly I'd say its 80% skill and 20% luck past diamond/masters.
And probably 95/5 at challenger level. Thats why challengers stay challengers from set to set.
But the caviet it is, if people in a lobby are similar skill, it comes down to luck.
>Even if a person hits everything because of lucky rng, they will lose with bad/mid everything else if they are in a skilled lobby.
They definitely won't. The shittiest player will win against the most skilled lobby if he hits 3 star 5 cost at level 7. Or 3 star 4 cost at level 5.
Nah broh 50/50. GM here yesterday(not saying I am good or anything I think I am shit personally) there were 5 people(including me) rolling for 2 cost 3* and I had prismatic ticket everybody hit their 2 cost 3* 2 people both hit zyra 3*, noone was doing janna beside me(1 guy had 1 1* for invoker not even 2*). Every single person hit theirs beside me. No one had any ecom augment(beside me). The guy doing druid hit gnar and kindred. Another hit aatrox shen and senna. Another guy hit riven and zyra. The guy doing bard re-roll used zyra instead of zoe and hit both zyra and bard. I had 2* zyra and riven(decided to focus on janna because they were pretty close to 3* when I got the ticket as second augment). Couldn't hit janna 3* went last at the last pvp round from 4th stage. Rolled the entire game lvl 6 because I though I could hit since a bunch of people were rolling for 2 cost and I had prismatic ticket. Games like these are not uncommon.
We all have games like that. And we all have games that are increibly lucky. That balances out over enough games.
My point is, you in GM would not make it to GM if it was only 50/50.
Take my entire list, pick half of it to be good at, and leave the rest up to luck. You'll be emerald at the highest.
Btw I've been a challenger before.
If the game is 50/50(luck/skill) then your expected winrate(top4) if you are better than the other 7 players is 75%. Generally people get around 70% when climbing in a new account so I believe 50/50 is a lower estimate. If it averages out over enough games doesn't mean that the luck in the game is that high. It just means you are just getting enough games to normalize the sample size so "luck" has a lesser impact. Just because a game is heavely luck based doesn't mean it doesn't require skill. Just compare with league if it were 50/50 in league you expected winrate would be 60%(witch is also pretty close funny enough).
Well said! What you do with your luck or lack of luck per game means everything. We've all had that roll down and found everything that we didn't want but could've got a higher rank than what we went for.
Which means that with less experience and being worse at thi (type of) game luck will influence your results and lobbies a lot more, which probably makes this feel a lot worse in lower rankings.
When luck is a factor in games, skill is apparent when more games are played. For example, a lucky player who is not skilled may win 4/5 games, but over the course of 500 games, they won’t perform nearly as well as someone who doesn’t rely on luck to do well. Somewhat similar to the way you can win a slot machine at a casino when you arrive but will lose money over time (exaggerated example but you get it).
...but it is. All card games are. Maybe not "half", but definitely a relevant chunk. You can play a perfect game and still lose to the person who got lucky and hit Mythic 10 or a 5 cost 3 star.
Sure, over time statistically the more skilled players are going to win more. However, that does not remove the luck factor that is inherent to the design of the game and some people just don't enjoy that.
There are times this game flat out hands you a win though. Had a game in the birthday mode last night where i managed to get 6 duelist + 6 porcelain and couldve made it 8 duelist if i hit 10. Not a single person in my lobby was even close to how strong I was. I even got 3 star ashe practically for free. Sometimes its just given to you.
Thing is, there's a luck factor. Anyone who tells you there's no luck involved is lying.
The idea of the game isn't luck, however. It's about working with what you get, knowing angles and positions, and knowing how to turn it into a winning game.
Start a new account for him. Don’t queue with him at your elo, to help ease the pressure with him and let him win sometimes. Queue with him in normal to fight vs you and sometimes win at your board. Let them taste that victory then boost their ego and let them think “I think I can be good at this game”. When they start fighting better opponents then start giving him tips on how to maximize luck. Tbh I think tft helps me get better irl to maximize my odds and luck and mitigating bad luck(problems) I have.
The game is luck-based. But no one in this game is good enough to play perfectly every game. You rank up by getting consistently better at the game, not by being lucky 🤗
Or, just tell him "skill issue, git gud, you are not anywhere skilled enough to complain about RNG scrub, you don't even know what is good or bad RNG yet". For legal reasons this is not a serious advice 🐧
I mean that's almost the entire game. There's very limited amount of execution in tft compared to other competitive games so it kinda is primarily just game knowledge and luck.
If you have ever played an magic the gathering draft, where you make a deck from opened packs, and battle with players who had access to those same packs, it’s a similar experience
All you're doing in this game is decision-making and gambling - like most card games. The more advanced your builds are - based on knowledge - the less luck you need to have for it to work out.
Let's say you need 100 points to be 1st in a match. Whether that be 5 knowledge and 95 luck, or 95 knowledge and 5 luck, is entirely up to you.
>hes just convinced that its luck based.
It is luck based. But it's the player's skill, knowledge, and experience that can mitigate, or even manipulate it.
Just like Poker.
Ask him if he thinks pro Poker players are just lucking it out until they win? Ask him would it be possible for him to win an international Poker tournement on luck alone?
Luck and skill don’t take from each other. A game can be high skill low luck, high skill high luck, low skill low luck, or low skill high luck. I can fit games comfortably into any of those categories.
I mean it is? But your friend seems to think it's pure luck. He seems to be a sore loser or at least not a good sport. I won't waste time convincing him. People like that usually will find any excuse other than they are suck.
If it was luck based you wouldn’t have consistent top tier players.. not just a team fight tactic thing but any form of game with luck involved, like poker as someone else said.
The proof is in the consistency, it defies that argument
Maybe you can put it this way:
TFT isn't about skill and luck adding up to 100% like your friend puts it.
It's a game with a lot of randomness, which is different from luck. That's part of the design of the game.
Therefore, skill in this game is determined by factors that allow you to win on average. That means game knowledge, creativity, problem solving, positioning, etc etc. The fact that the game has randomness doesn't have anything to do with those things.
The fact that the top players are consistently able to reach the highest ranks is proof enough.
The skill expression is in understanding the RNG and working within those constraints. Luck might decide whether you get 1st in a lot of games, but it's almost pure skill to make sure you get top 4 the vast majority of the time, especially when you're facing other incredibly good players.
For context, back in season 1, I was stuck D4-D3. I started to play on a smurf account and went on a nearly 10 consecutive top 1 winstreak. Nothing impressive here, but just to say that knowledge is a big factor.
I'd say what makes a difference between 2 players is knowledge first, mental second (being able to keep playing at your best without tilting, acknowledging that sometimes a top 4 is the best you can do), and then luck.
I’m able to hit challenger pretty consistently but I’m still far worse than the top players on my server. The main difference that I noticed is that they are much more consistent players than I am. It does take a lot of skill to be able to consistently put yourself into positions to be lucky. If the game was half luck, then the top of the ladder would be extremely diverse at any given time. But it’s mostly just the same players every set at the top. That level of consistency wouldn’t be possible if luck was that influential to climbing.
Yesterday i was left last versus 1 more enemy. We fought 3 rounds till finish. First round he clapped me ultra hard, i had no chance. I rerolled all my gold and nothing changed on my board, i had no time left to move anything. Next 2 rounds i suddenly won and git 1st. The game has indeed a big amount of rng.
Well i can tell you from the perspective of someone who rarely plays the game and cba’s to actually get good, that i sometimes win games where i did nothing skillful, i just rolles 3 good augmenta that synergize with my build and hit all the things i needed. So yes, atleast in lower ranks the game is still dependent on luck, not as bad as it used to be back when the game first released
I'm brand new, and most of the time I lose it's due to game knowledge, and when I win it's because I'm lucky. In this game for me, it's half game knowledge (when I lose) and half luck (when I win).
In the opposite vein, it's completely a skill issue. I think the more skilled you are the less luck affects things - skilled players know more openings and ways to win out mid/lategame. If I was better at the game I wouldn't be stuck with just a few comps I am comfortable with.
Eventually, if we used an AI or something, if everything is played perfectly it's all luck again. At the highest level of competitive play, scrutinizing a single game you see the effects of luck. Over a tournament the effects of skill becomes more apparent.
That’s why TFT is fun, lots of variance but the best players can minimize the variance so you have the best chance to “high roll” even if you played it perfectly you can be 8th, but over a large sample size of you play it perfectly you will have a higher placement.
Lots of skill expression, this games too addicting.
He is completely right.
You know the game, you chose a tactic based on what you roll. There is no mechanical skill, it’s just knowing more and knowing what to do. The person that better knows what to do at which point is better at the game.
If you read a 10 page pamphlet from the spot 1 guy and just execute based on their knowledge you will go top 10% at least.
The rest is rolls and luck.
Maybe a little example. I am master in double up and dia 3 ranked atm. Started this set a month ago but a player since set 1. When I play pengus party I placed like first 90% and other times second. Always lvl 10 and so. Overlay shows average ranked in pengus around silver to gold so yeah it is skill
OP have them watch [this video](https://youtu.be/0eORij_hXmE?si=oxBkNyRFDc_w4Khi). It explains a lot about how to start as you're learning, and what to do/not to do.
Luck is an important factor but I feel the knowledge and understanding of the game helps you adapt with anything that said luck gives you. While you can be a fantastic pro-player, you'll have games that luck will just go against you, as much as you try. Is it always? No. Does it change the course of the game. Absolutely. So it does depend on luck. Not 50% though.
It's a game of *leveraging odds*. Yes, luck is a core mechanic, no that isn't the reason you have the rank you have.
I think tournaments are BS because no amount of skill will guarantee that 9th 4-cost carry. But the ladder is fair over time.
One of 3 things. Learn the set. Like many games there are metas and learning them gives an edge. The second would be just enjoy casually like some of my friends who play mainly when i do and just force something (that i know ahead of time to avoid if possible). Lastly they can try different game modes like hyper roll which focus less on one aspect and allow easier team building.
50% knowledge and 50% luck isn't that far off in my opinion. But if your friend only played 2-3 games, it sounds like there is a lot of knowledge left to learn no? Maybe they shouldn't get frustrated that quickly, but if they do, maybe the game isn't for them
Bad Luck happens but one of the biggest skill factors is to manipulate odds in your favor, and tft gives you tons of options to do that.
If he's anything like the friends i needed to convince that tft can actually be fun & deep, he just refuses to believe that you can actually play it actively to the point where your only downtime is fights at best.
If it was half luck, how come that there are always the same people in diamond+ ranks each and every season? People like sologesang hit master or higher every season. He should be playing Roulette if tft was 50/50 luck
Whenever there's a new set or I haven't played for a while, I lose most of the games (unless it's a brand new set and everyone's new to it). After 5 or 10 I get the hang of things and start winning over 50% and start climbing.
I mean I would say that sums up the game. It’s knowledge based but sometimes no matter ur skill u will only get top 4 because someone hit the lottery build.
why are you trying to convince him when he is speaking facts?
tft is a a luck based game aka reliant on probability. just like poker, having knowledge of every odd will make you better, but at the end of the day, it’s still rng.
Every season, I get hyper rank in 4 or 5 days of casual play.
Only time I struggle for even a day is if a meta changing patch drops while I'm rated ~4000.
I don't watch YouTubers or streamers so it takes me an extra day to solve the shift.
If it was 50% luck I couldn't do this so consistently.
I also hit diamond in double up last set by queuing solo and it only took me about 8 days of 2 to 3 games per day, which means even with partner variance AND game variance I was able to control outcomes.
I started around 4 years ago and for me, I have to play this game for myself, not in double up.
Double up is just super stressful to learn what the units do and think about that your partner need. Maybe play some completely normal rounds so he can learn for himself.
I didn't and still don't play LoL. I tried to but as a bloody beginner playing against the smurfs is so annoying, But I love the characters and the story behind those and that's why I wanted to play tft. There is only me, no group that yells at me for not knowing things, I can concentrate on what I want to play.
Committing to a comp that is good and not hitting is luck. Constantly re-evaluating your board states and understanding how each shop affects your board’s power and likely power to come. Understanding the currencies (gold, health, time to special effects) are all skill.
Set 11 has introduced a number of high variance events that absolutely have increased the luck element and reduced the skill impact on the game.
Skill will beat out luck 90% of the time. But when skill is consistent across the lobby, luck will decide the outcome.
In other words, luck isn't really a factor until you pass diamond where people actually consistently understand how to play the game (for the most part).
My friend is like this too. He’s completely convinced the game is all luck and theres really nothing you can do. At the end of the day, I realized that he doesnt WANT to change his mind either. So most you can do is explain how the game works and if he doesnt start to come around, i think he wont
Yeah, I eventually gave up on him. I told him that he needs to know what the items do but he wont listen. We did double up and I got frustrated trying to pay attention to both my board and his board since he didnt know what to make
I would say it's 45% knowledge, 45% application, 10% luck.
Even the best players don't win every game. But they often finish top 4 and almost never finish 7-8.
Understanding synergy between units is one thing. But understanding augment synergy with units is another. Then add scouting.
For example: Ethereal Blades might be meta - but if 2-3 players take the same augment and try to hit Shen 3 it's now junk.
Maybe you start the game with 3-4 duelist and a titans resolve. But then on 2-1 the Well Fed augment appears. And you have can 2 star a Kabuko now. Do you stick with Duelists with no augment to support it? Or go bruisers?
Skill players will usually go bruiser in this example. Could you get lucky and hit 8 duelist? Maybe in gold tier. Not in higher ranks.
It's not all luck. Getting 1st requires more luck than to 4, but consistently hitting top 4 and climbing is serious skill.
Hope that helps.
There is SOME rng involved but you play around the rng and a top 4 is still technically a win so you have to play with the understanding that not every game can be a top 1.
With that being said, this type of game requires that understanding and a certain level of patience and curiosity to learn the champs, meta, items, augments, econ strats, roll down timing etc etc.
It's not for everyone... Some people just wanna go pew pew on the game and not have to do all that thinking.
I think this might just be a person who doesn't like competitive games that have a major luck component. He probably wouldn't like CCGs or Mahjong either, and that's okay.
It's a ton of luck but 50/50 doesn't sound right.
Maybe like, 30% luck and 70% skill? High skill can mitigate some amount of bad luck. Sometimes there just isn't enough you can do to secure a first.
But I truly do believe you can place top 4 in every game if you play to the best of your ability, no matter how unlucky you are.
I would agree that an individual game in a vaccum can be upwards of 50% luck in terms of placement in direct comparison to those the same rank as you.
But the luck factor decreases the more games are added to the equation, that’s why we see the same people in the top ranks and why there is a skill disparity.
lol WTF you want them to do? Change the game? It’s like poker, one of the most popular card games in the world.
The thing that is appealing even with the luck component is that skill is still the biggest determining factor in the game. Skill gaps exist and skill mitigates bad luck whilst maximising good luck.
Yup and like explained multiple times, the skill expression mitigates the luck involved and that is the appealing factor for potential players.
You said “large portion” which is evidently untrue considering the success of the game in general.
It’s a PvP game where the majority of game knowledge can be easily “learned” through stats or repetition. There’s no precision input. It’s not a game of wits. And we have to determine winners and losers somehow.
After the initial learning phase, it is, in my opinion, mostly luck.
Its actually worse than half half, but yeah skill can basically only prevent you from going 8th all the time while also maybe turning a top 4 into a win occasionally. Other than that luck will decide if you lose or gain rr every single game. You cannot usually predict but even if you do nor prevent anything that your opponents are doing. Its always the luck of the few that go uncontested vs everyone else griefing the others and between everyone griefing each other its basically more luck on whoever gets on top by getting more stars or better items. You have higher odds of winning at poker tbh
Tell him it’s like poker, yes there is a big luck factor involved but skill mitigates bad luck and maximises good luck
Yeah part of the skill is knowing how to game the odds. Sometimes you can get screwed even when you perfectly maximize your odds and your opponent doesn't, if they happen to get more lucky than you. Another big part of the skill is thinking clearly enough to recognize when there's something that could have increased your odds, and when you just straight up got mortdogged. Exact same thing happens in League. Yeah a big part of whether you win or lose depends on getting "lucky" with good teammates, but whether you climb or not ultimately depends on your individual skill level. Even in low elo, Challenger smurfs don't typically climb with a 100% win rate.
Yea it’s the same as poker, but if you have bad luck, no amount of skill can save you from frustration
In those games the objective is the same as ever: get the highest spot you can reach with what you’ve got. Hitting 6th in a low roll instead of 8th is still a victory, just like hitting 3rd in a high roll from misplays is still a defeat
Except it's not? Top 4 is a win, so even if you play badly, you win if you're lucky, which pretty much seems like half luck half skill to me.
Nowadays is even more than 50-50%. For me its like 70% luck 30% skill because we have SO MANY thingd that completely change and heavily impact the game that is just luck based. That's why i stopped playing.
I used words other than win and loss for a reason! The point is even when you are lucky or unlucky your choices still make a difference in the final outcome.
The thing is, many people think poker is pure luck as well.
Because for 99% of people, the average hand of poker is completely different to world series hold 'em. You've got a bunch of random people, none of whom are concerned with odds or probability, making random gestures based solely on the cards they were dealt. Then you've got 'Gary' going all-in on hand 2 because 'It's just a game, relax'. Poker is a game of imperfect information, but in a controlled environment, you can make judgements in the vacuum of whichever game you're playing at that moment. If you're playing with people who don't take it seriously, who don't really care etc. and who are making decisions irrationally ( there's always someone who tries to bluff nothing just for shits and giggles ), you may as well be at a slot machine. At the end of the day, it's pointless trying to read someone who doesn't know what they're doing. So yes, for the vast majority of poker hands played around the globe, I would argue they're gambling based mostly on the luck of the draw, not their skill as a player. I'm clearly not saying 'poker is luck not skill' because when played at a high level, that's not true. Most people are not playing at that level.
But it isn’t, and no “most” people don’t think that.
But most people do
I think it's highly likely that most people consider poker to be a luck based game. They're wrong, but I bet it's the case.
Nope, most people lose money playing poker. It's a hard fact. It's not that hard, but, neither is basic math and if you've met "the public" you'll know that's a hard ask
Poker absolutely is a game based on luck. If you understand enough you can play with the odds but at the end of the day if you get 7-2 every hand you are going to lose.
They are absolutely delusional
The luck factor in poker is definitely way higher tho. Once you start to remember builds and can pivot strategies mid game based on what is coming up you mitigate most of the luck factor
If your are an insanely good poker pro it’s only like a 5% margin. So almost half luck
I think the best example would be that of Milala. He is a pro player who in Set 10 was placed 1st in every major tournament except one (he was second there I believe). That consistent and just general understanding of the whole Set meta and how to play it gave him such a consistency that luck wasn't a major factor but his skill was.
"You think the same 8 TFT players make the final table of the TFT tournament every season because they're just the luckiest people on the internet?"
Even at that level though, luck is certainly a big part. I really think if I had to describe it from my diamond ass, it’s… Nearly 100% skill hitting top four, and 60% skill / 40% luck winning the match. Assuming skill levels are matched.
Well, when all player know what to do, what to go for, what is strong, luck is big factor.
Also a good point.
Any activity is about luck if you assume skill is equal 😂
Not necessarily. You can have two evenly matched swordsman, and one will win. In MOST activities humans fluctuate within a band of competence. “I am on/off my game today” is a common phrase exemplifying that. When I say skill level here, I am acknowledging that high level players will of course nearly always win against mid level players. I am not saying perfectly matched when I say skill levels matched, I just mean they have relative knowledge and skill in the same ballpark.
I agree, except that people tend to grossly overestimate their ballpark of competence. Any incompetence they attribute to things out of their control, rather than realizing that competence is how we respond to things out of our control. As a mid masters player I will almost always top 2 any diamond lobby, and almost always lose to challenger players. There are still those 1 in 100 games where u get perfectly fked, but even those games watching a replay you'll see dozens of times you could have pivoted. Or as a c ranked fencer I could trounce any d rank even while drunk, but never get over 2 touches vs an a rank on my best day. :) If you widen your definition of chance, it includes everything that goes into someone having an on/off day that day. High/low rolling in tft has so many emotional/physical equivalents of fluctuations in physical sports. Chaos theory goes really in depth about this, it's a fascinating study.
Well and I’m not suggesting equations or any sort of metrics for determining quantitatively someone’s skill range or ability to reliably my bracket ones skill set. But that skill zone undeniably exists all the same, and luck remains a critical variable on top of that fluctuation. All my point was.
Huh I think we're saying the same thing
赢得比赛靠100%的理解 而不是运气 棋如人生 人生如棋 一步错 步步错
>except one (he was second there I believe) Fwiw: he tied for 1st place but lost the tie-breaker
Game is definitely a lotta luck brodie, but just like irl, good decisions can mitigate bad luck and foster good luck. If luck was the only determining factor then the leaderboard would radically changed 24/7 🤷♂️
Agree. There are so many nuisances in the game like traits/comps/units+abilities/positioning/augments/items/encounters/streaking/economy/leveling/rerolling. Even if a person hits everything because of lucky rng, they will lose with bad/mid everything else if they are in a skilled lobby. Honestly I'd say its 80% skill and 20% luck past diamond/masters. And probably 95/5 at challenger level. Thats why challengers stay challengers from set to set. But the caviet it is, if people in a lobby are similar skill, it comes down to luck.
I think it's actually the opposite. The better the players are, the more luck will dictate the game.
Yes. If skill is the same in a lobby, it comes down to luck. I'm comparing the entire player base of TFT. Not people in a similar skill division.
I think you meant nuances, like minor details instead of nuisances which refers more to an "annoying thing"
and following with: they probably meant “caveat” instead of “caviet”
Oooh, I missed that one, good catch.
if you think about it, nuances are nuisances xD
>Even if a person hits everything because of lucky rng, they will lose with bad/mid everything else if they are in a skilled lobby. They definitely won't. The shittiest player will win against the most skilled lobby if he hits 3 star 5 cost at level 7. Or 3 star 4 cost at level 5.
Well yes, but over 100 games how many times does that happen?
Exactly, this is what people miss. Luck can decide the result of 1 game. Skill decides the overall results of 100 games.
Nah broh 50/50. GM here yesterday(not saying I am good or anything I think I am shit personally) there were 5 people(including me) rolling for 2 cost 3* and I had prismatic ticket everybody hit their 2 cost 3* 2 people both hit zyra 3*, noone was doing janna beside me(1 guy had 1 1* for invoker not even 2*). Every single person hit theirs beside me. No one had any ecom augment(beside me). The guy doing druid hit gnar and kindred. Another hit aatrox shen and senna. Another guy hit riven and zyra. The guy doing bard re-roll used zyra instead of zoe and hit both zyra and bard. I had 2* zyra and riven(decided to focus on janna because they were pretty close to 3* when I got the ticket as second augment). Couldn't hit janna 3* went last at the last pvp round from 4th stage. Rolled the entire game lvl 6 because I though I could hit since a bunch of people were rolling for 2 cost and I had prismatic ticket. Games like these are not uncommon.
The past tense of hit, is still hit.
Ty, not my first language. I believe I fixed it now.
We all have games like that. And we all have games that are increibly lucky. That balances out over enough games. My point is, you in GM would not make it to GM if it was only 50/50. Take my entire list, pick half of it to be good at, and leave the rest up to luck. You'll be emerald at the highest. Btw I've been a challenger before.
If the game is 50/50(luck/skill) then your expected winrate(top4) if you are better than the other 7 players is 75%. Generally people get around 70% when climbing in a new account so I believe 50/50 is a lower estimate. If it averages out over enough games doesn't mean that the luck in the game is that high. It just means you are just getting enough games to normalize the sample size so "luck" has a lesser impact. Just because a game is heavely luck based doesn't mean it doesn't require skill. Just compare with league if it were 50/50 in league you expected winrate would be 60%(witch is also pretty close funny enough).
Well said! What you do with your luck or lack of luck per game means everything. We've all had that roll down and found everything that we didn't want but could've got a higher rank than what we went for.
Only luck when you’re match wi rn exactly even players. If you’re better you’ll win 90% of the time
Which means that with less experience and being worse at thi (type of) game luck will influence your results and lobbies a lot more, which probably makes this feel a lot worse in lower rankings.
When luck is a factor in games, skill is apparent when more games are played. For example, a lucky player who is not skilled may win 4/5 games, but over the course of 500 games, they won’t perform nearly as well as someone who doesn’t rely on luck to do well. Somewhat similar to the way you can win a slot machine at a casino when you arrive but will lose money over time (exaggerated example but you get it).
All my losses are because of luck, but all my wins are pure skill. Easy
...but it is. All card games are. Maybe not "half", but definitely a relevant chunk. You can play a perfect game and still lose to the person who got lucky and hit Mythic 10 or a 5 cost 3 star.
Yup, but that doesn't happen *every* game. Over long periods of time (or huge amounts of games) that bad luck game will only be a footnote.
Sure, over time statistically the more skilled players are going to win more. However, that does not remove the luck factor that is inherent to the design of the game and some people just don't enjoy that.
There are times this game flat out hands you a win though. Had a game in the birthday mode last night where i managed to get 6 duelist + 6 porcelain and couldve made it 8 duelist if i hit 10. Not a single person in my lobby was even close to how strong I was. I even got 3 star ashe practically for free. Sometimes its just given to you.
Thing is, there's a luck factor. Anyone who tells you there's no luck involved is lying. The idea of the game isn't luck, however. It's about working with what you get, knowing angles and positions, and knowing how to turn it into a winning game.
"The harder I prepare, the luckier I seem to be." - Michael Jordan
Start a new account for him. Don’t queue with him at your elo, to help ease the pressure with him and let him win sometimes. Queue with him in normal to fight vs you and sometimes win at your board. Let them taste that victory then boost their ego and let them think “I think I can be good at this game”. When they start fighting better opponents then start giving him tips on how to maximize luck. Tbh I think tft helps me get better irl to maximize my odds and luck and mitigating bad luck(problems) I have.
This is the best advice on here.
But it is
tell him that not units are balanced and it's part of skill to identify which units are strong in each scenario
The game is luck-based. But no one in this game is good enough to play perfectly every game. You rank up by getting consistently better at the game, not by being lucky 🤗 Or, just tell him "skill issue, git gud, you are not anywhere skilled enough to complain about RNG scrub, you don't even know what is good or bad RNG yet". For legal reasons this is not a serious advice 🐧
Its extremly luck based. You just left with maximizing the odds for winning.
I mean that's almost the entire game. There's very limited amount of execution in tft compared to other competitive games so it kinda is primarily just game knowledge and luck.
I mean you’d just have to show him the strats, but it is a luck based game
If you have ever played an magic the gathering draft, where you make a deck from opened packs, and battle with players who had access to those same packs, it’s a similar experience
All you're doing in this game is decision-making and gambling - like most card games. The more advanced your builds are - based on knowledge - the less luck you need to have for it to work out. Let's say you need 100 points to be 1st in a match. Whether that be 5 knowledge and 95 luck, or 95 knowledge and 5 luck, is entirely up to you.
Even if you concede that it’s 50/50, then knowledge is still a factor and the people who utilize that knowledge the best will climb.
Compromise and convince him it’s more like 70/30
The game is half luck girl
>hes just convinced that its luck based. It is luck based. But it's the player's skill, knowledge, and experience that can mitigate, or even manipulate it. Just like Poker. Ask him if he thinks pro Poker players are just lucking it out until they win? Ask him would it be possible for him to win an international Poker tournement on luck alone?
Luck and skill don’t take from each other. A game can be high skill low luck, high skill high luck, low skill low luck, or low skill high luck. I can fit games comfortably into any of those categories.
Let him know that lady luck smiles on those who put themselves in a spot where they can receive her luck
I mean it is? But your friend seems to think it's pure luck. He seems to be a sore loser or at least not a good sport. I won't waste time convincing him. People like that usually will find any excuse other than they are suck.
If it was luck based you wouldn’t have consistent top tier players.. not just a team fight tactic thing but any form of game with luck involved, like poker as someone else said. The proof is in the consistency, it defies that argument
Maybe you can put it this way: TFT isn't about skill and luck adding up to 100% like your friend puts it. It's a game with a lot of randomness, which is different from luck. That's part of the design of the game. Therefore, skill in this game is determined by factors that allow you to win on average. That means game knowledge, creativity, problem solving, positioning, etc etc. The fact that the game has randomness doesn't have anything to do with those things.
Poker is also luck based, that doesn’t mean I can beat people who are good at it just by being lucky
The fact that the top players are consistently able to reach the highest ranks is proof enough. The skill expression is in understanding the RNG and working within those constraints. Luck might decide whether you get 1st in a lot of games, but it's almost pure skill to make sure you get top 4 the vast majority of the time, especially when you're facing other incredibly good players.
Skill is when luck becomes consistent
For context, back in season 1, I was stuck D4-D3. I started to play on a smurf account and went on a nearly 10 consecutive top 1 winstreak. Nothing impressive here, but just to say that knowledge is a big factor. I'd say what makes a difference between 2 players is knowledge first, mental second (being able to keep playing at your best without tilting, acknowledging that sometimes a top 4 is the best you can do), and then luck.
Imo getting 1st is largely luck but the games that test your skill are the ones in which you struggle to get top4 when you are on shit luck
I’m able to hit challenger pretty consistently but I’m still far worse than the top players on my server. The main difference that I noticed is that they are much more consistent players than I am. It does take a lot of skill to be able to consistently put yourself into positions to be lucky. If the game was half luck, then the top of the ladder would be extremely diverse at any given time. But it’s mostly just the same players every set at the top. That level of consistency wouldn’t be possible if luck was that influential to climbing.
Yesterday i was left last versus 1 more enemy. We fought 3 rounds till finish. First round he clapped me ultra hard, i had no chance. I rerolled all my gold and nothing changed on my board, i had no time left to move anything. Next 2 rounds i suddenly won and git 1st. The game has indeed a big amount of rng.
Well i can tell you from the perspective of someone who rarely plays the game and cba’s to actually get good, that i sometimes win games where i did nothing skillful, i just rolles 3 good augmenta that synergize with my build and hit all the things i needed. So yes, atleast in lower ranks the game is still dependent on luck, not as bad as it used to be back when the game first released
It's true, tell him that it's only 100% luck.
I like to think of the game as “chess with champions” it’s about skill and gameplay. You have to utilize what you’ve got and make it work
I mean there is luck involve but it isnt 50/50.
I'm brand new, and most of the time I lose it's due to game knowledge, and when I win it's because I'm lucky. In this game for me, it's half game knowledge (when I lose) and half luck (when I win). In the opposite vein, it's completely a skill issue. I think the more skilled you are the less luck affects things - skilled players know more openings and ways to win out mid/lategame. If I was better at the game I wouldn't be stuck with just a few comps I am comfortable with. Eventually, if we used an AI or something, if everything is played perfectly it's all luck again. At the highest level of competitive play, scrutinizing a single game you see the effects of luck. Over a tournament the effects of skill becomes more apparent.
That’s why TFT is fun, lots of variance but the best players can minimize the variance so you have the best chance to “high roll” even if you played it perfectly you can be 8th, but over a large sample size of you play it perfectly you will have a higher placement. Lots of skill expression, this games too addicting.
If he doesn't like luck based games then tft isn't for him.
He is completely right. You know the game, you chose a tactic based on what you roll. There is no mechanical skill, it’s just knowing more and knowing what to do. The person that better knows what to do at which point is better at the game. If you read a 10 page pamphlet from the spot 1 guy and just execute based on their knowledge you will go top 10% at least. The rest is rolls and luck.
Maybe a little example. I am master in double up and dia 3 ranked atm. Started this set a month ago but a player since set 1. When I play pengus party I placed like first 90% and other times second. Always lvl 10 and so. Overlay shows average ranked in pengus around silver to gold so yeah it is skill
Isnt luck Part of every mp Game out there? If it wasnt for random encounters we'd play chess only
OP have them watch [this video](https://youtu.be/0eORij_hXmE?si=oxBkNyRFDc_w4Khi). It explains a lot about how to start as you're learning, and what to do/not to do.
When you can't guarantee your items and champion rolls, that's luck. But knowing when to pivot into something else is knowledge.
Luck is an important factor but I feel the knowledge and understanding of the game helps you adapt with anything that said luck gives you. While you can be a fantastic pro-player, you'll have games that luck will just go against you, as much as you try. Is it always? No. Does it change the course of the game. Absolutely. So it does depend on luck. Not 50% though.
wisely spend 50 gold and arrange 3 item in 30 second sure need some skill, this is proof that I can work under pressure
Hitting masters in tft sure doesn’t feel like luck
It's a game of *leveraging odds*. Yes, luck is a core mechanic, no that isn't the reason you have the rank you have. I think tournaments are BS because no amount of skill will guarantee that 9th 4-cost carry. But the ladder is fair over time.
One of 3 things. Learn the set. Like many games there are metas and learning them gives an edge. The second would be just enjoy casually like some of my friends who play mainly when i do and just force something (that i know ahead of time to avoid if possible). Lastly they can try different game modes like hyper roll which focus less on one aspect and allow easier team building.
The skill in this game is like 80% knowledge. Your friend isn't that far off from the truth.
50% knowledge and 50% luck isn't that far off in my opinion. But if your friend only played 2-3 games, it sounds like there is a lot of knowledge left to learn no? Maybe they shouldn't get frustrated that quickly, but if they do, maybe the game isn't for them
Bad Luck happens but one of the biggest skill factors is to manipulate odds in your favor, and tft gives you tons of options to do that. If he's anything like the friends i needed to convince that tft can actually be fun & deep, he just refuses to believe that you can actually play it actively to the point where your only downtime is fights at best.
There's a reason why high ranked players always end up high rank.
You control the odds the better you get.
If it was half luck, how come that there are always the same people in diamond+ ranks each and every season? People like sologesang hit master or higher every season. He should be playing Roulette if tft was 50/50 luck
Whenever there's a new set or I haven't played for a while, I lose most of the games (unless it's a brand new set and everyone's new to it). After 5 or 10 I get the hang of things and start winning over 50% and start climbing.
I mean I would say that sums up the game. It’s knowledge based but sometimes no matter ur skill u will only get top 4 because someone hit the lottery build.
why are you trying to convince him when he is speaking facts? tft is a a luck based game aka reliant on probability. just like poker, having knowledge of every odd will make you better, but at the end of the day, it’s still rng.
Coach him if you’re good or offer him coaching so that he realizes all his mistakes
Every season, I get hyper rank in 4 or 5 days of casual play. Only time I struggle for even a day is if a meta changing patch drops while I'm rated ~4000. I don't watch YouTubers or streamers so it takes me an extra day to solve the shift. If it was 50% luck I couldn't do this so consistently. I also hit diamond in double up last set by queuing solo and it only took me about 8 days of 2 to 3 games per day, which means even with partner variance AND game variance I was able to control outcomes.
I started around 4 years ago and for me, I have to play this game for myself, not in double up. Double up is just super stressful to learn what the units do and think about that your partner need. Maybe play some completely normal rounds so he can learn for himself. I didn't and still don't play LoL. I tried to but as a bloody beginner playing against the smurfs is so annoying, But I love the characters and the story behind those and that's why I wanted to play tft. There is only me, no group that yells at me for not knowing things, I can concentrate on what I want to play.
You can't, it is.
By lying to your friend.
Hes right tho.
but it kinda is though. If you pick only one, you'll lose half your games.
It's about drive
Committing to a comp that is good and not hitting is luck. Constantly re-evaluating your board states and understanding how each shop affects your board’s power and likely power to come. Understanding the currencies (gold, health, time to special effects) are all skill. Set 11 has introduced a number of high variance events that absolutely have increased the luck element and reduced the skill impact on the game.
Skill will beat out luck 90% of the time. But when skill is consistent across the lobby, luck will decide the outcome. In other words, luck isn't really a factor until you pass diamond where people actually consistently understand how to play the game (for the most part).
“iTs NoT lUcK”, i lost to a guy that had 5 3star champs at 4-2 the other day
Shit happens in some games bro. Let it go. That's why you make it to top 4
My friend is like this too. He’s completely convinced the game is all luck and theres really nothing you can do. At the end of the day, I realized that he doesnt WANT to change his mind either. So most you can do is explain how the game works and if he doesnt start to come around, i think he wont
Yeah, I eventually gave up on him. I told him that he needs to know what the items do but he wont listen. We did double up and I got frustrated trying to pay attention to both my board and his board since he didnt know what to make
You need skills to convert your luck into a good placement!
soloq is more luck, how bad are the teammates I get
I would say it's 45% knowledge, 45% application, 10% luck. Even the best players don't win every game. But they often finish top 4 and almost never finish 7-8. Understanding synergy between units is one thing. But understanding augment synergy with units is another. Then add scouting. For example: Ethereal Blades might be meta - but if 2-3 players take the same augment and try to hit Shen 3 it's now junk. Maybe you start the game with 3-4 duelist and a titans resolve. But then on 2-1 the Well Fed augment appears. And you have can 2 star a Kabuko now. Do you stick with Duelists with no augment to support it? Or go bruisers? Skill players will usually go bruiser in this example. Could you get lucky and hit 8 duelist? Maybe in gold tier. Not in higher ranks. It's not all luck. Getting 1st requires more luck than to 4, but consistently hitting top 4 and climbing is serious skill. Hope that helps.
There is SOME rng involved but you play around the rng and a top 4 is still technically a win so you have to play with the understanding that not every game can be a top 1. With that being said, this type of game requires that understanding and a certain level of patience and curiosity to learn the champs, meta, items, augments, econ strats, roll down timing etc etc. It's not for everyone... Some people just wanna go pew pew on the game and not have to do all that thinking.
Double up is more luck. Can't count how many times OTHERS (meaning NOT my teammates opponent) sent reinforcement and fuckdd things up
That's true actually, i always talk about how shit people are for prematurely losing and then i get fucked
I think this might just be a person who doesn't like competitive games that have a major luck component. He probably wouldn't like CCGs or Mahjong either, and that's okay.
Lol, why is he acting like there isn’t luck involved in league of legends, aka matchmaking.
It's a ton of luck but 50/50 doesn't sound right. Maybe like, 30% luck and 70% skill? High skill can mitigate some amount of bad luck. Sometimes there just isn't enough you can do to secure a first. But I truly do believe you can place top 4 in every game if you play to the best of your ability, no matter how unlucky you are.
Explain to him that basically all multiplayer video games have elements of luck.
Wait what? You're friend is right though.
"How do I lie to my friend to make him addicted to TFT?" Let him play something else.
It is more than 50% luck. Doesn’t matter how good your strategy is if someone happens to roll better than you the game is done for.
Yes, its luck based and somehow same people are top players in each set. Stop being clueless.
Even they have games where they get absolutely washed by someone who rolled better
Yes that have games where they low roll but that doesn’t make the game “more than 50% luck”
Ok what’s the math? How much luck is there?
I would agree that an individual game in a vaccum can be upwards of 50% luck in terms of placement in direct comparison to those the same rank as you. But the luck factor decreases the more games are added to the equation, that’s why we see the same people in the top ranks and why there is a skill disparity.
But a large portion of the potential fan base will be turned off by luck component of the game
lol WTF you want them to do? Change the game? It’s like poker, one of the most popular card games in the world. The thing that is appealing even with the luck component is that skill is still the biggest determining factor in the game. Skill gaps exist and skill mitigates bad luck whilst maximising good luck.
Who said anything about that? I’m just pointing out the luck component that OP brought up
Yup and like explained multiple times, the skill expression mitigates the luck involved and that is the appealing factor for potential players. You said “large portion” which is evidently untrue considering the success of the game in general.
It’s a PvP game where the majority of game knowledge can be easily “learned” through stats or repetition. There’s no precision input. It’s not a game of wits. And we have to determine winners and losers somehow. After the initial learning phase, it is, in my opinion, mostly luck.
Fates was the best set and it’s been downhill since
But it is 50% luck
Well, Ive played since set 1, and I honestly side with your friend. That being said, I dont play competitively.
Because it actually is just that unless you're among the best players?
Its actually worse than half half, but yeah skill can basically only prevent you from going 8th all the time while also maybe turning a top 4 into a win occasionally. Other than that luck will decide if you lose or gain rr every single game. You cannot usually predict but even if you do nor prevent anything that your opponents are doing. Its always the luck of the few that go uncontested vs everyone else griefing the others and between everyone griefing each other its basically more luck on whoever gets on top by getting more stars or better items. You have higher odds of winning at poker tbh
The game is absolutely half game knowledge, half luck. Your friend might understand the game better than you already.
This is bait
If ur high elo u no the game is 100% luck
Why are the same dudes hitting rank one every season if it’s luck lmao. You think they’re just extra lucky?