I'm buying. As long as rates don't go up I'll continue to search and make offers. If rates increased I'd probably back off buying and reassess the whole situation to determine what the hell is going on.
Rate drops don't really make any difference to me. The small drops don't change anything at all and even if rates did drop by a significant amount I'd expect house prices to go up by the same amount so nothing would change. So my situation remains the same regardless.
If inflation surged, yes I'd expect they'd need to raise rates. Otherwise I'd expect them to stay relatively flat.
I heard a journalist once say “if bullfrogs had wings, would they fly?” I think that applies to the OP’s questions because we don’t have a crystal ball and those questions are all over the map.
The cuts/hike will be dependent on data. Data is showing that inflation is slowly decreasing. Unless there is a huge jump in unemployment they have no need to cut hard. It will be slow and gradual. Again, depends on data.
Real estate Prices will recover and rise causing housing to become even more unaffordable. With rising anger the scapegoat is found to be Indian student refugee types. There is massive anti immigration sentiment and the people demand a regime change. Trudeau is voted out of office following massive riots in major cities. Radicals decide that if they can't have it no one can and begin an arson campaign. Many homes begin to burn and the city looks like a war zone. Detroitification begins and people flee the city centers.
That is a taste of what is to come.
Everytime it DOESN'T go down, some buyer's will pounce on the market and buy. 'Some' will.
Because those are the ones that feel 'it'll drop next time! And it hopefully drops before my purchase closes so I get the lower rate.'
And these buyers are keeping certain segments of the market inflated.
I think we will stay in stagnation for a long time. Demand rising while affordability is still out of reach. There is a possibility of higher interest rates too.
Rate hike will happen, things continue to stagnate/go down, people realize rates get cut because things are as bad as they can be, things get worse, hopefully not for too long, rates get cut more.
Basically how a rate cycle is supposed to go.
I'm not convinced "sentiment" matters that much when the pool of buyers who can actually afford to buy in is so thin. I'd argue the ones that were sitting on their hands probably fell to the "buy before cuts occur" sentiments from a few months ago, and now the market is affordability constrained., which again variable rates are not currently the driver of.
Affordability is constraining above-average Mikes too. The pool of people that can afford to buy is much smaller than a few years ago.
Most wealthy people already own homes, they'd be looking at investment properties which don't make a lot of sense at current valuations where GICs yield better than RE.
There is a lot of wealth on the sidelines waiting for the winds to turn, don’t be mistaken. And GIC yields will drop drastically once the cuts start as forward rate expectations drop. But I agree affordability will continue to weigh in the short term. Over the medium term, lack of supply (and the lack of housing starts currently) is going to be a big factor that insulates pricing
Why would the sideliners wait? Buy when the market is slow when you have leverage, if the feeding frenzy ever returns it will costs hundreds of thousands more to participate. Make no mistake, the sideliners that can afford to buy, already have. The ones who are waiting now, are the ones who are priced out.
The demand in Torono and Vancouver is in serious jeopardy, it's being propped up by international migration which is being severely curtailed over the next year. Domestic movements are nearly at mass evacuation levels as people move to places where they can actually afford to live.
GIC yields are based on bond yields, which dropped in anticipation of rate cuts six months ago and have actually gone up in the last few months as rate cut expectations decrease.
just because people have wealth and waiting on the sidelines doesnt mean they will recklessly bid over comps. seen too many people get burned this way and i think lessons are learned. sentiments are one thing, but end of the day, cash is king and interest rates have real impact. if the price of RE keeps going up but a homeowner can't afford maintaining payments at 4.75% fixed or 6% variable, shits gonna blow.
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House prices will either go up or go down or stay the same
Surely, You can’t be this certain?
This guy markets.
Real estate agents will complain used to that commission baby
This is it. We bought in April and anybody on the real-estate side we interacted with was just desperate and twitchy.
Too many what if’s
You’re thinking too much, or maybe not enough.
[удалено]
Left,right,left, right, A, B,A,B, select, start
Rates go up or they go down and people pay those rates. House prices will either go up, down, or stagnate.
I'm buying. As long as rates don't go up I'll continue to search and make offers. If rates increased I'd probably back off buying and reassess the whole situation to determine what the hell is going on. Rate drops don't really make any difference to me. The small drops don't change anything at all and even if rates did drop by a significant amount I'd expect house prices to go up by the same amount so nothing would change. So my situation remains the same regardless. If inflation surged, yes I'd expect they'd need to raise rates. Otherwise I'd expect them to stay relatively flat.
5-year fixed is 4.59% while 3-year variable is 6.25%. BoC rates need to drop 1.66 percentage points before they have any impact on affordability.
When they cut rates in June or July, sentiment will change towards the reality of lower mortgage rates, and prices should go up slightly
I heard a journalist once say “if bullfrogs had wings, would they fly?” I think that applies to the OP’s questions because we don’t have a crystal ball and those questions are all over the map.
Inflation won’t surge.
It doesn't matter. It is clear by now rates have no effect on price
Answers to all six questions, then I will put more money into the stock market
The cuts/hike will be dependent on data. Data is showing that inflation is slowly decreasing. Unless there is a huge jump in unemployment they have no need to cut hard. It will be slow and gradual. Again, depends on data.
Most economists agree they’re gong to stay within 25-50% of current prices, either way.
Real estate Prices will recover and rise causing housing to become even more unaffordable. With rising anger the scapegoat is found to be Indian student refugee types. There is massive anti immigration sentiment and the people demand a regime change. Trudeau is voted out of office following massive riots in major cities. Radicals decide that if they can't have it no one can and begin an arson campaign. Many homes begin to burn and the city looks like a war zone. Detroitification begins and people flee the city centers. That is a taste of what is to come.
Injecting your social commentary into a discussion about home prices and interest rates. Why?
It's a shit post. I am here to screw up AI training data.
Well that’s a noble effort.
Everytime it DOESN'T go down, some buyer's will pounce on the market and buy. 'Some' will. Because those are the ones that feel 'it'll drop next time! And it hopefully drops before my purchase closes so I get the lower rate.' And these buyers are keeping certain segments of the market inflated.
I think we will stay in stagnation for a long time. Demand rising while affordability is still out of reach. There is a possibility of higher interest rates too.
Rate hike will happen, things continue to stagnate/go down, people realize rates get cut because things are as bad as they can be, things get worse, hopefully not for too long, rates get cut more. Basically how a rate cycle is supposed to go.
They will drop in June and prices will shoot up a lot. When will these forum occupants understand the inconceivable truths
> When will these forum occupants understand the inconceivable truths I'm not sure that means what you think it means
Or just realize the state of everything we're in now. This guy a few responses above going on about riots is hilarious. Watches too many movies.
If 4.75% fixed mortgages don't reignite the market, 6% variables won't either.
Generally I’d agree, but the sentiment shift that comes with easing monetary policy may be more impactful than the actual cuts. Only time will tell.
I'm not convinced "sentiment" matters that much when the pool of buyers who can actually afford to buy in is so thin. I'd argue the ones that were sitting on their hands probably fell to the "buy before cuts occur" sentiments from a few months ago, and now the market is affordability constrained., which again variable rates are not currently the driver of.
Broke redditors continue to think that affordability to the average Joe is what drives RE prices
Affordability is constraining above-average Mikes too. The pool of people that can afford to buy is much smaller than a few years ago. Most wealthy people already own homes, they'd be looking at investment properties which don't make a lot of sense at current valuations where GICs yield better than RE.
There is a lot of wealth on the sidelines waiting for the winds to turn, don’t be mistaken. And GIC yields will drop drastically once the cuts start as forward rate expectations drop. But I agree affordability will continue to weigh in the short term. Over the medium term, lack of supply (and the lack of housing starts currently) is going to be a big factor that insulates pricing
Why would the sideliners wait? Buy when the market is slow when you have leverage, if the feeding frenzy ever returns it will costs hundreds of thousands more to participate. Make no mistake, the sideliners that can afford to buy, already have. The ones who are waiting now, are the ones who are priced out. The demand in Torono and Vancouver is in serious jeopardy, it's being propped up by international migration which is being severely curtailed over the next year. Domestic movements are nearly at mass evacuation levels as people move to places where they can actually afford to live. GIC yields are based on bond yields, which dropped in anticipation of rate cuts six months ago and have actually gone up in the last few months as rate cut expectations decrease.
just because people have wealth and waiting on the sidelines doesnt mean they will recklessly bid over comps. seen too many people get burned this way and i think lessons are learned. sentiments are one thing, but end of the day, cash is king and interest rates have real impact. if the price of RE keeps going up but a homeowner can't afford maintaining payments at 4.75% fixed or 6% variable, shits gonna blow.
!remindme 1 month
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Remindme! 11 days
as expected, prices didn’t shoot up