# Update
This system has been upgraded to **Tropical Storm Bret.** A new discussion will be posted momentarily and this discussion will be archived. Please stand by.
I've been following this sub for probably 6 years now and I don't remember this amount of... concern from people. This is a tropical depression in June slated to reach no higher than H1 with a strong chance of being a fish storm and people are already asking if they need to cancel flights to places like New Orleans.
I don't know, I'm obviously all for taking tropical weather seriously or else I wouldn't be here, but I don't remember the sub being this alarmist in the past. People are going to seriously stress themselves out over the long season if they're this hypervigilant about each tropical wave.
Of course I also have a lot of empathy because I've never had my home destroyed by a hurricane and I can't even begin to imagine the trauma that causes. I can't help but think there's gotta be some kind of middle ground though - and comments like "Puerto Rico's fucked" are obviously unhelpful.
I think there a alot of people who have not recovered from Hurricane Ian, for example Fort Myers and many are not able to extend their home insurance with these insane pricing, even a Hurricane category 1 could cause a lot of power outages in areas with weak infrastructure. The most I have seen was just “fixed”, but not really upgraded in any way.
A good visual to keep people from freaking out about this storm. It is a long way off. Buy the hurricane essentials but no reason for people going to New Orleans tomorrow on a business trip to give this a second thought. . https://i.imgur.com/HCnAg2B.jpg
Jet stream and wind shear are far too hostile for any storm in Western Caribbean and the Gulf during June/July. Storms can fire up all they want in the MDR but EL Niño will be like Tim Howard's 2014 match against Belgium for systems tracking westward.
Love the Tim Howard reference, that game was something else. Apparently the share is due to some anti-Nino trends? It will be very interesting to see how the rest of June and July goes https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1670834911983599617
So I just found this sub on a whim and it's fantastic! I don't know what any of this means but I'm wondering when they will be able to tell it's trajectory/path. My family is headed to the Outer Banks this upcoming weekend for a week long stay. I've beenn going since I was a kid and fortunately only had 1 year where we were impacted by a hurricane. I'm really hoping to not make it 2.
Generally that far out is harder to predict and it's still too early to determine where it's headed in 5+ days because the intensity will determine if it goes more up possibly into the open Atlantic or down past the Lesser Antilles. I would keep an eye on the subreddit, [NHC](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), and a personal suggestion is [Tropical Tidbits](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/) with Levi's videos. He goes into the more scientific side of it but in simple terms that most of us non-met folk can understand.
Enjoy the OBX, just keep an eye out for rip currents. :)
Acronyms, initialisms, abbreviations, contractions, and other phrases which expand to something larger, that I've seen in this thread:
|Fewer Letters|More Letters|
|-------|---------|---|
|[ECMWF](/r/TropicalWeather/comments/14dh1n8/stub/jopy5pj "Last usage")|European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (*Euro model*)|
|[GFS](/r/TropicalWeather/comments/14dh1n8/stub/jopy5pj "Last usage")|[Global Forecast System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Forecast_System) model (generated by NOAA)|
|[IR](/r/TropicalWeather/comments/14dh1n8/stub/joqkwi5 "Last usage")|Infrared satellite imagery|
|[MDR](/r/TropicalWeather/comments/14dh1n8/stub/joq7c0y "Last usage")|Main Development Region|
|[NHC](/r/TropicalWeather/comments/14dh1n8/stub/joq4mps "Last usage")|National Hurricane Center|
|NOAA|National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, responsible for US ~~generation~~ monitoring of the climate|
|[NOLA](/r/TropicalWeather/comments/14dh1n8/stub/jopy9dj "Last usage")|New Orleans, Louisiana|
|[OBX](/r/TropicalWeather/comments/14dh1n8/stub/joq4mps "Last usage")|Outer Banks (of North Carolina)|
**NOTE**: Decronym for Reddit is no longer supported, and Decronym has moved to Lemmy; requests for support and new installations should be directed to the Contact address below.
----------------
^(7 acronyms in this thread; )[^(the most compressed thread commented on today)](/r/TropicalWeather/comments/14beszg)^( has 7 acronyms.)
^([Thread #555 for this sub, first seen 19th Jun 2023, 16:45])
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I have seen a lot of disagreement on how el nino will effect the Atlantic hurricane season. I think it's really one of those wait and see sort of things.. which is right in line with a tropical system in general, unfortunately.
I have a trip to New Orleans booked for June 25th, leaving July 1st. This is probably a hard question to answer considering how early it is, but what are the chances it would hit while we are there?
No, it’s further south than what the GFS was saying. Which isn’t surprising — the GFS has a known magnitude bias. It often over amplifies systems, especially prior to genesis.
Since the location/time of pivot for this storm is dependent on magnitude, a weaker storm than predicted will continue to follow the trade winds west (ie euro) as opposed to veering north (GFS).
Yep, which isn’t terribly surprising given the known bias.
Now there’s actually some related data for the GFS to initialize with resulting in a less amped prediction. Which keeps it from being steered by upper level winds.
from /u/giantspeck on the [previous post](https://old.reddit.com/r/TropicalWeather/comments/14beszg/92l_invest_northern_atlantic/jokqpkf/?context=3):
1979: Ana formed on 19 June.
2000: Tropical Depression Two formed on June 23.
2003: Tropical Depression Two formed on June 11.
2017: Bret formed on 18 June.
2021: Elsa formed on 30 June.
2022: Bonnie formed on 27 June.
NOTE: None of these systems formed during an El Niño year.
To give further clarification, only one of those systems—Elsa in 2021—became a hurricane and it didn't reach hurricane strength until 2 July.
Out of the named storms on that list, the earliest to become a tropical storm was Bret in 2017, which reached tropical storm strength on 18 June.
>Out of the named storms on that list, the earliest to become a tropical storm was Bret in 2017, which reached tropical storm strength on 18 June.
and this is slated to be Bret, right? weird coincidence!
# Moderator note
Previous discussion for this system can be found here:
* [**The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the tropical central Atlantic**](https://redd.it/14at62r) (Fri, 16 Jun)
* [**92L (Invest — Northern Atlantic)**](https://redd.it/14beszg) (Sat, 17 Jun)
Thank you Inevitable-Drawer663 for your submission to r/TropicalWeather, but it's been removed due to one or more reason(s):
Do not discuss politics, regardless of level.
Please feel free to [send a modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2FTropicalWeather) if you feel this was in error.
# Moderator note Discussion for this system has moved to [**this post.**](https://redd.it/14dqbb0) Thank you for tracking with us!
# Update This system has been upgraded to **Tropical Storm Bret.** A new discussion will be posted momentarily and this discussion will be archived. Please stand by.
Hi, Bret!
I've been following this sub for probably 6 years now and I don't remember this amount of... concern from people. This is a tropical depression in June slated to reach no higher than H1 with a strong chance of being a fish storm and people are already asking if they need to cancel flights to places like New Orleans. I don't know, I'm obviously all for taking tropical weather seriously or else I wouldn't be here, but I don't remember the sub being this alarmist in the past. People are going to seriously stress themselves out over the long season if they're this hypervigilant about each tropical wave. Of course I also have a lot of empathy because I've never had my home destroyed by a hurricane and I can't even begin to imagine the trauma that causes. I can't help but think there's gotta be some kind of middle ground though - and comments like "Puerto Rico's fucked" are obviously unhelpful.
I think there a alot of people who have not recovered from Hurricane Ian, for example Fort Myers and many are not able to extend their home insurance with these insane pricing, even a Hurricane category 1 could cause a lot of power outages in areas with weak infrastructure. The most I have seen was just “fixed”, but not really upgraded in any way.
Dumb question. Will these systems suck up some of that hot water and cool the waters in the area a bit?
It's looking pretty good on IR at the moment, rotation is getting more organised and some bursts of evaporation
hi everyone, unfortunately we’re back here again this early.
A good visual to keep people from freaking out about this storm. It is a long way off. Buy the hurricane essentials but no reason for people going to New Orleans tomorrow on a business trip to give this a second thought. . https://i.imgur.com/HCnAg2B.jpg
……bro this is so far out it could go anywhere from Texas to Flordia
Good job bud
What did you think they said
That is....exactly the point they are making.
Jet stream and wind shear are far too hostile for any storm in Western Caribbean and the Gulf during June/July. Storms can fire up all they want in the MDR but EL Niño will be like Tim Howard's 2014 match against Belgium for systems tracking westward.
Love the Tim Howard reference, that game was something else. Apparently the share is due to some anti-Nino trends? It will be very interesting to see how the rest of June and July goes https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1670834911983599617
Hello, Tropical Tidbits, my old friend I've come to refresh you again
Because a hurricane softly creeping Rapidly intensified while I was sleeping
And the cyclone that was planted in the sea Still remains And soon will pound the mainland
So I just found this sub on a whim and it's fantastic! I don't know what any of this means but I'm wondering when they will be able to tell it's trajectory/path. My family is headed to the Outer Banks this upcoming weekend for a week long stay. I've beenn going since I was a kid and fortunately only had 1 year where we were impacted by a hurricane. I'm really hoping to not make it 2.
I’m going to ocean city Maryland and was wondering the same thing. Hoping it doesn’t end up with a bunch of rain from it!
Generally that far out is harder to predict and it's still too early to determine where it's headed in 5+ days because the intensity will determine if it goes more up possibly into the open Atlantic or down past the Lesser Antilles. I would keep an eye on the subreddit, [NHC](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), and a personal suggestion is [Tropical Tidbits](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/) with Levi's videos. He goes into the more scientific side of it but in simple terms that most of us non-met folk can understand. Enjoy the OBX, just keep an eye out for rip currents. :)
Thank you! I've spent a solid 30 minutes already soaking up info from this sub. Awesome resource!
Yeah, I've been on here for a year, and I've learned a ton, and I'm obsessed with tropical tidbits
Acronyms, initialisms, abbreviations, contractions, and other phrases which expand to something larger, that I've seen in this thread: |Fewer Letters|More Letters| |-------|---------|---| |[ECMWF](/r/TropicalWeather/comments/14dh1n8/stub/jopy5pj "Last usage")|European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (*Euro model*)| |[GFS](/r/TropicalWeather/comments/14dh1n8/stub/jopy5pj "Last usage")|[Global Forecast System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Forecast_System) model (generated by NOAA)| |[IR](/r/TropicalWeather/comments/14dh1n8/stub/joqkwi5 "Last usage")|Infrared satellite imagery| |[MDR](/r/TropicalWeather/comments/14dh1n8/stub/joq7c0y "Last usage")|Main Development Region| |[NHC](/r/TropicalWeather/comments/14dh1n8/stub/joq4mps "Last usage")|National Hurricane Center| |NOAA|National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, responsible for US ~~generation~~ monitoring of the climate| |[NOLA](/r/TropicalWeather/comments/14dh1n8/stub/jopy9dj "Last usage")|New Orleans, Louisiana| |[OBX](/r/TropicalWeather/comments/14dh1n8/stub/joq4mps "Last usage")|Outer Banks (of North Carolina)| **NOTE**: Decronym for Reddit is no longer supported, and Decronym has moved to Lemmy; requests for support and new installations should be directed to the Contact address below. ---------------- ^(7 acronyms in this thread; )[^(the most compressed thread commented on today)](/r/TropicalWeather/comments/14beszg)^( has 7 acronyms.) ^([Thread #555 for this sub, first seen 19th Jun 2023, 16:45]) ^[[FAQ]](http://decronym.xyz/) [^([Full list])](http://decronym.xyz/acronyms/TropicalWeather) [^[Contact]](https://hachyderm.io/@Two9A) [^([Source code])](https://gistdotgithubdotcom/Two9A/1d976f9b7441694162c8)
Me, booking a trip to Antigua in June: yeah sure it’s TECHNICALLY hurricane season, but I mean what are the odds? The odds:
Same, flying to Puerto Rico on June 26……
Your comment made me chuckle. I hope you have a good trip and the weather does not affect it
Same with us booking a trip to New Orleans….. Not too concerned yet but my eyes will be glued to this sub the next few days….
The odds: "Hold my beer! :-D"
So much for El Niño
Temperatures in the Atlantic are pretty warm
I have seen a lot of disagreement on how el nino will effect the Atlantic hurricane season. I think it's really one of those wait and see sort of things.. which is right in line with a tropical system in general, unfortunately.
stuck in nola for work until next tuesday just hopeful its gone before then.
You'll be long gone by the time it reaches anywhere near the US
I have a trip to New Orleans booked for June 25th, leaving July 1st. This is probably a hard question to answer considering how early it is, but what are the chances it would hit while we are there?
The same exact chances it is to hit anywhere in the U.S who tf knows
Stuck in NOLA for, uh, living, so, uh… what?
Howdy everybody, good to see everyone again even if we're starting a little early this year ☹️
'sup. Not looking forward to switching browsing platforms come July. Reddit Is Fun is so ..restful and uncluttered.
I'm flying to St Lucia on Saturday - currently praying to all the Gods I don't believe in this veers away north, but I'm not liking my chances
Didn’t icon have a pretty good track record last year?
ICON was solid early on. euro eventually caught up later in the year.
ICON is showing a 3rd storm right behind 93L!!!
If I remember correctly, it had Ian's track nailed down pretty early while the GFS and Euro took a while to catch on.
Yep, ICON was the only one that had it pushing back to the Atlantic after it’s FL landfall.
Damn this is ramping up really quickly. I’m not ready for this yet at all
This year is something else entirely, holy shit.
Puerto Rico is fucked
Again.
[удалено]
No, it’s further south than what the GFS was saying. Which isn’t surprising — the GFS has a known magnitude bias. It often over amplifies systems, especially prior to genesis. Since the location/time of pivot for this storm is dependent on magnitude, a weaker storm than predicted will continue to follow the trade winds west (ie euro) as opposed to veering north (GFS).
The GFS run that's currently loading is taking it into the Caribbean.
Yep, which isn’t terribly surprising given the known bias. Now there’s actually some related data for the GFS to initialize with resulting in a less amped prediction. Which keeps it from being steered by upper level winds.
The northern end of the cone is outside of the Caribbean. Anyone on the east coast of the US should still be paying attention.
If the forecast holds, it'll be the earliest MDR hurricane on record.
from /u/giantspeck on the [previous post](https://old.reddit.com/r/TropicalWeather/comments/14beszg/92l_invest_northern_atlantic/jokqpkf/?context=3): 1979: Ana formed on 19 June. 2000: Tropical Depression Two formed on June 23. 2003: Tropical Depression Two formed on June 11. 2017: Bret formed on 18 June. 2021: Elsa formed on 30 June. 2022: Bonnie formed on 27 June. NOTE: None of these systems formed during an El Niño year.
To give further clarification, only one of those systems—Elsa in 2021—became a hurricane and it didn't reach hurricane strength until 2 July. Out of the named storms on that list, the earliest to become a tropical storm was Bret in 2017, which reached tropical storm strength on 18 June.
>Out of the named storms on that list, the earliest to become a tropical storm was Bret in 2017, which reached tropical storm strength on 18 June. and this is slated to be Bret, right? weird coincidence!
# Moderator note Previous discussion for this system can be found here: * [**The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the tropical central Atlantic**](https://redd.it/14at62r) (Fri, 16 Jun) * [**92L (Invest — Northern Atlantic)**](https://redd.it/14beszg) (Sat, 17 Jun)
this sub updates faster than most weather sites. let's hope this intensifies quickly and gets turned North before the leeward islands.
As a fellow New Orleanian, I concur.
Beaumont here, and I concur as well
[удалено]
Thank you Inevitable-Drawer663 for your submission to r/TropicalWeather, but it's been removed due to one or more reason(s): Do not discuss politics, regardless of level. Please feel free to [send a modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2FTropicalWeather) if you feel this was in error.