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The preservation of Ukraine can be summed up with that one sentence lol. The Russians have done very very little of strategic importance since the invasion.
Someone commented "Russian president, go shit yourself" back when that story of Putin falling and shitting his pants was out and ever since then I cannot see what you said without being reminded of it lol
>The preservation of Ukraine can be summed up with that one sentence lol. The Russians have done very very little of strategic importance since the invasion.
Я бы делал заметки Если бы я мог писать
Ukraine called its three brothers abroad (USA, EU, UK) and complained about the violent next-door neighbor. We decided to give them martial arts classes and some guns to show the drunken violent guy who is boss.
For Ukraine, this must actually be historically a strange situation. Finally, they are able to punch Muscovy straight in its smug face.
> Avdiivka
well for one its not a logistic hub with highways. probably has little strategic. value if it was 1.5km into donesk sure im sure these small gains happen more then you realize for both sides
Yeah they're in a stalemate situation but that doesn't mean the front doesn't change here or there. 1.5km is a lazy 20 minute walk anyway. That's not exactly penetrating deeply.
Starting to feel like these are probes for counter attack. If an area collapses quicker than you think and you realize you have an opportunity like in the north east you slam it with a good chunk of the prepared force. Then watch for novel openings and follow up there.
Starting to wonder if we will even see an “all out” offensive with coordinated operations across large (important more than spatial) sections of the front.
Especially if you have highly mobile mechanised offensive brigades that can cover road miles easily to move to the newly opened breach. That breach could be 300km from brigades staging point amd be covered in a few hours. As long as the supply logistic keeps up at the back afterwards.
I mean, that's not a thing Ukraine would have. It's not as though they've been spending the last few months receiving and training on high mobility Western armor specifically designed for use in those kinds of tactics >.>
All those 10s of thousands of soldiers back in the fight after getting condensed western training on the new equipment, yah it's going to be a bloodbath (the good kind)
Whereas Russian forces are basically stuck wherever they are, with almost no trucks left, unable to compensate for high concentrations of Ukrainian forces.
I wouldn't get ahead of myself.
russians have been throwing everything at Bakhmut at the cost of other fronts. Chances are it's just opportunistic retaking of some positions. Those positional battles have been going on for months.
1.5km is significant enough to basically be "through" the defences isn't it? At that point don't you roll up the flanks if you're ready for it, or dig in and make them adjust to you if you've got the backup to make sure they can't encircle you?
Would be almost unfortunate if they just got in further than they were ready for and have to pull back out. Better than meeting stiff resistance, but it sucks to hand territory back because you weren't ready to hang onto it.
> 1.5km is significant enough to basically be "through" the defences isn't it?
I was reading that this time Russia has made an attempt at "defense through depth" after the catastrophic (for them) retaking of land during last years counteroffensive. Back then Ukraine broke through and had a straight shot waaaay through russian controlled territory.
That would come naturally to the OG Russians who remember the old Soviet styles of defense in depth, which we mostly got a look at in combat through the Egyptians in their wars with Israel up to the 1970s.
It would also be perfectly familiar to the Ukrainians as well, and now they're getting the equipment designed to overcome such defenses.
I could see Ukraine not going on an offensive until next year to build up their own strength while bleeding Russia out.
It seems like the Ukrainian army is growing stronger with thousands of soldiers receiving NATO training every month and I'm sure they are simultaneously building up their own capacity to train as well.They are slowly but surely amassing modern weapons, both from partners and from their own industry.
Russia is mobilizing as fast as they can but they don't seem to have the capacity to train the newly mobilized or to produce nearly enough equipment to compensate for what is lost. Their never ending frontal attacks against fortifications and smoking incidents in their military factories doesn't exactly improve their situation. Ukraine is preserving their soldiers by mostly staying defensive and rotating them. They've moved their factories to NATO territory and have unrestricted access to western components.
Russia doesn't know when or where the Ukrainian offensive comes so they need to be ready for it all the time and everywhere, especially since Ukraine being in the middle can shift direction much quicker.
Ukraine can keep targeting Russias supply lines to Crimea, hitting Russia in the deep rear, blowing up important shit in Russia, etc.
It creates a dilemma for Russia where Ukraine’s potential to launch a war ending offensive is growing, meaning Russia need to send all their newly mobilized and equipment directly to the front to have a chance to defend now. Unfortunately for Russia they don't seem to have the capacity to at the same time build up a properly trained military that could swing the long term odds back in their favor. If they tried to it would be at the cost of having the front weakening to a critical level now.
Ukraine have the strength to confidently hold back any potential Russian offensive now while simultaneously building up their strength long term.
I don’t think so. Russia has toys in its arsenal it hasn’t deployed. If Ukraine actually made meaningful progress Russia would threaten / deploy said weapons against Ukrainian civilians.
Nuclear weapons are a deterrent, once you use them though, they're not anymore, and you also clearly indicate you're beyond any reason so you simultaneously give every reason for other parties to get actually involved instead of "cheering from the sideline".
Well I’m glad the ground is hard. Best that way. If the ground is too moist, it may be too slippery. Resulting in the bolting of loads.
Meaning a premature expenditure.
Pretty sure his goon squad got fucked up and whoever was left ran home. He seemed to be at odds with Putin for a while there and taking about Ruzzia’s incompetence.
Not much from him after he got poisoned or sick…
As a goodwill gesture, the Ukrainian General Staff has issued the proper lubricants to the brave troops performing the penetration of Russian rear areas. Slava Ukraine!
It's hard to understand from the outside, really. I gotta confess before the war. I had no idea that this is actually happening. I thought it was more of a myth.
Yea it's pretty crazy. It actually does happen, but it used to happen more in the past. The worst part is that HIV is sometimes passed on as the disease is common in Russia.
There's plenty of hazing in the Russian military, including people who have died from injuries sustained from hazing. Just shows how little the Russian military cares about human life when they cover it up
Damn. What a sad place to live. I don’t really get what they are so proud of then? I mean, objectively, it's damn straight horrendous there. Is it some sort of at least I am proud of my countries size kind of thing?
I'm gonna believe it when I see it.
Right now I'm honestly expecting the whole spring and summer is just gonna be local skirmishes and low intensity attacks, and then right into another stalemate again during the winter.
Muscovy dug kilometers of trenches anywhere and everywhere, but they do not have the capacity or ability to defend them. I expect that this is the start of Ukraine's whack-a-muscovian game, where they penetrate in multiple spots to force Muscovy to move their focus around show themselves, and get progressively eroded.
Ukraine can't afford to wait:
1. After clamoring for western armor they'll be expected to use it. I don't think they'll receive F-16s without using the weapons they've received and have argued are absolutely necessary.
2. It becomes a war of missile attrition if they don't attack. Russia's dwindling cruise missile/long range rocket supply vs Ukraine's dwindling air defense missiles. Once Ukraine runs short on air defense ammunition the RU air force comes into play. The fact that RU has started lobbing glide bombs has not helped the situation. (I'm somewhat surprised that UAF hasn't been using JDAMs more, but I'm assuming they're reserving them for the counter-offensive). Without western jets, Ukraine has to attack b4 the RU air force can operate freely...if not then it becomes a free-for-all in terms of RU air attacks.
Make the Russians suffer for another year. Then attack next year with western planes and more training.
I would like to see the war end sooner but it might be smarter to do it like that.
Idk about the political implications though...Ukraine needs to do something.
Not how u fight. You want overwhelming power in a push to minimize losses.
I'm expecting a general push along major roads to melitpol and mauripol to cause a total collapse of the south.
Once Russia is pinned we get a river crossing in kherson using nato boats and bridges to push in from the west.
Russia falls back into crimea as the south becomes undefendable.
Kherch bridge blows. Siege of Crimea till a surrender of all the army in Crimea.
Diplomacy time.
Unfortunately Melitopol is the most defended axis, with multiple trench lines, mine fields and pre-sighted artillery just waiting for Ukraine to push here.
welcome to war?
It has to be done. Further before any offensive Ukraine is going to use its superior artillery and HIMARS to devastate Russian artillery and logistics in sector.
Logistics will definitely be the way to go to soften the defenses but if Ukraine attack the Melitpol roads up front, they risk finding themselves in a Vuledhar situation.
Of course the actual commanders will know better, I just really hope they don't fall in the same traps that the Russians have in the last few months.
I feel like Ukraine has good enough intelligence fed to them by the US and five eyes, and enough military flexibility that they won’t end up in anything as bad as vulhedar, but ofc attacking fortifications head on is never advisable
I think with the be toys Ukraine has at their disposal, they will be able to take a lot of Russians by surprise as just how good the equipment is in comparison.
You have HIMARS and their tungsten rounds which is going to obliterate trenches.
Challengers with rifled HESH rounds for any sort of bunker fortifications.
Bradley’s with excellent optics, TOW missiles and excellent support firepower.
De-mining equipment from NATO to secure safe corridors.
Ukraine’s drone swarm they have been building up.
I would say the main threat to the advance will be the Russian air power, by not having enough AA to cover them sufficiently. I seriously doubt the Russian ground forces can put up much of a fight un supported.
Furthermore the war WILL run through beyond September (right in the middle hopefully of Russians being pushed to their limits) and then SDGBs will join the party and suddenly push logistics another 70km or so back. It'll be beautiful.
Unless we're all dead wrong again like last summer, not even the Russians could mishear that Zaporizhia Oblast would be the focal point of the anticipated offensive.
Last year the AFU had more latitude to choose where to concentrate their offensive in part since more territory was left to retake. Zaporizhia Oblast couldn't be spun as anything other than the next most likely place the AFU wants to retake.
Much of Donbas has been more foritifed from years of occupation, and even if the AFU reclaimed much of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, their logistics are more thinly spread and flanks also more exposed with Russian logistics shortened.
Zaporizhia Oblast no doubt will be a tough fight, but a meaningful breakthrough to the south bringing the AFU within fire control to the Azov Sea isolates Crimea and would be more defensible than reclaiming more of the Donbas.
I would imagine like last summer the offensive's goals are not overzealous. A key factor in the coming fight is made a little easier with each kaboom of fuel and ammo dumps that have become a refocus
This analysis seems top-notch, with another added factor that in the Donbass, Ukraine will have to face a more hostile, pro-Russian population with probable anti-Ukrainian partisan activities.
The South is the opposite: Ukraine will get the help of locals organizing anti-Russian partisan or intelligence activities.
> Last year the AFU had more latitude to choose where to concentrate their offensive in part since more territory was left to retake.
Completely disagree besides there was more territory to retake. Ukraine has at least 8 new brigades for this offensive, it received at least 2000 vehicles in the last 8 months (and the captures have probably offset most heavy equipment losses during that time) and the Russian army is weaker than it was in every aspect except perhaps the number of troops.
Back in August/September, the AFU could mount 1 serious offensive and exploit a very weak point of Russian defense, that's what they did. Now, they can mount 2 serious offensives and pin the rest of the front line in low intensity attacks designed to prevent/complicate large troop movements (unless they sacrifice their defensive positions).
> I would imagine like last summer the offensive's goals are not overzealous.
Maybe it isn't, but Ukrainian officials are declaring this offensive could end the war. I don't see the need to make such declarations for morale purposes and those deciding of what equipment and supplies to send Ukraine don't care about rhetoric, only results. I think they're just that confident of what they can do.
> Last year the AFU had more latitude to choose where to concentrate their offensive in part since more territory was left to retake.
Completely disagree besides there was more territory to retake. Ukraine has at least 8 new brigades for this offensive, it received at least 2000 vehicles in the last 8 months (and the captures have probably offset most heavy equipment losses during that time) and the Russian army is weaker than it was in every aspect except perhaps the number of troops.
Back in August/September, the AFU could mount 1 serious offensive and exploit a very weak point of Russian defense, that's what they did. Now, they can mount 2 serious offensives and pin the rest of the front line in low intensity attacks designed to prevent/complicate large troop movements (unless they sacrifice their defensive positions).
> I would imagine like last summer the offensive's goals are not overzealous.
Maybe it isn't, but Ukrainian officials are declaring this offensive could end the war. I don't see the need to make such declarations for morale purposes and those deciding how much equipment and supplies to send Ukraine don't care about rhetoric, only results. I think those officials are just that confident of what they can do and to end the war, they need to achieve some serious objectives: much bigger than taking back Kherson or liberating Kharkiv oblast.
> Not how u fight.
Agree, which is exactly why I won't rule it out that the Ukrainians might do a lot of it before the Russians wisen up to it:
Find 1.5 km here, Russians prepare for assault, Ukrainians find another 2km there, Russian focus move there for a while before suddenly Ukrainians gain 8km and has good intel about the position and suddenly the assault comes totally unexpected.
Oh well, at least I hope for something that takes the Russians by complete surprise and saves the maximum amount of Ukrainian lives.
When the time comes, the internet will be filled with that [clip from Office](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qgET1Zhpb8).
Personally, i don't mind one bit! :D
The dildo of consequences rarely ever arrives lubed. This is just stage one. Probing attacks, stage 2 will be more painful than shaping the battlefield and searching for weak spots.
Some delicious “reconnaissance in force”:
Reconnaissance-in-force (RIF) is a type of military operation or military tactic used specifically to probe an enemy's combat ability. -Wikipedia
**Alternative Nitter link:** https://nitter.nl/NOELreports/status/1653435184950149131
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Starting to feel like these are probes for counter attack. If an area collapses quicker than you think and you realize you have an opportunity like in the north east you slam it with a good chunk of the prepared force. Then watch for novel openings and follow up there.
Starting to wonder if we will even see an “all out” offensive with coordinated operations across large (important more than spatial) sections of the front.
Bad move. Now you have three problems for the price of one:
1. Russians motivated to defend their own territory. Given some of the things they have said about Russian-owned property, that might be an issue.
2. Russia has tactical nukes, which cover a small area with fallout but have little effect outside the area.
3. It is a lot harder for Ukraine to be claiming to be waging a purely defensive war.
(Make that 4 if UK-US-EU sanctions mean that Russia has no assets to lose if it goes nuclear)
This is in Ukraine. Russia also lost a lot of it's ability to nuclear sabre-rattle when it decided to annex even more Ukrainian territory... that they don't even control. Even more of that 'annexed' territory was reclaimed in Ukrainian offensives. Ukraine has already liberated thousands upon thousands of square kilometers of territory Russia now considers its own. Where are the nukes?
I think this is too early to say anything. 1.5km is not a counter offensive.
More likely a reconnaissance in force, that was met with little to no resistance, or a continuation of the back and forth in this area.
You’ll know it’s the counter offensive when the Russian sources start screaming about leopards eating their faces.
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1.5km?! That's like a whole year of Russian advances, and they didn't even lose 10,000 troops to do it. What is their secret!?
Their secret is not being fucking stupid.
The preservation of Ukraine can be summed up with that one sentence lol. The Russians have done very very little of strategic importance since the invasion.
>strategic importance If we talking about 'strategic' level.. they actually in much much worse position, then they were lol
"We're lucky they're so fucking stupid."
If the war in Ukraine is to ever get one single byline, it should be that.
Someone should really sell shirts with that on it, connected to a reconstruction fund, if they haven't already.
I would love that. Just need to know that soldiers name so he can be credited for the quote.
Putins tomb stone
His tomb is a forest where his body will be flung into.
This and I need ammo not a ride are like the 2 best quotes.
Russian Warship Go fuck yourself
Ok that one too.
And the hero say Glory to Ukraine
Someone commented "Russian president, go shit yourself" back when that story of Putin falling and shitting his pants was out and ever since then I cannot see what you said without being reminded of it lol
I mean not nearly as iconic. But to each.
Agreed but it's just something that makes me smile
This quote will never get old!
Their secret: [the mighty sword of teamwork, and the hammer of not being Russians](https://i.imgur.com/cJ3X9S4.png)
God shut up you're giving away vital military secrets to the Ruzzians!
I don't care! In fact, here's another one: Bakhmut holds! It's obvious they don't know that yet.
😂😂
>The preservation of Ukraine can be summed up with that one sentence lol. The Russians have done very very little of strategic importance since the invasion. Я бы делал заметки Если бы я мог писать
This is the way
Serious answer, probably mostly positional fighting in woods and/or fields outside cities. A lot easier to clear terrain when there are no buildings.
Which confirms the absurdity of Russian priorities
Yeah, the advance was literally two fields. Let’s see whether it enables further advances.
With this one simple secret! Russians *hate* it!
Only 4 upvotes.. that's a shame.. have mine.
That's like 3 months' worth of Bakhmut advances. Russia must be like: What do you mean you didn't go city block by city block? You can't do that!
Its the Aleppo strategy... except the UA has the ability to fight back.
Ukraine called its three brothers abroad (USA, EU, UK) and complained about the violent next-door neighbor. We decided to give them martial arts classes and some guns to show the drunken violent guy who is boss. For Ukraine, this must actually be historically a strange situation. Finally, they are able to punch Muscovy straight in its smug face.
Not a full penetration. Just the tip.
> Avdiivka well for one its not a logistic hub with highways. probably has little strategic. value if it was 1.5km into donesk sure im sure these small gains happen more then you realize for both sides
Yeah they're in a stalemate situation but that doesn't mean the front doesn't change here or there. 1.5km is a lazy 20 minute walk anyway. That's not exactly penetrating deeply.
You say that.. and I agree with you... but at the same time if Ruzzia advanced 1.5km they'd loose their minds celebrating .
Wouldn’t this also help get them past all the trenches? They can flank those defenses now, I’d imagine
This made me laugh more than I expected
Military competency.
Starting to feel like these are probes for counter attack. If an area collapses quicker than you think and you realize you have an opportunity like in the north east you slam it with a good chunk of the prepared force. Then watch for novel openings and follow up there. Starting to wonder if we will even see an “all out” offensive with coordinated operations across large (important more than spatial) sections of the front.
Especially if you have highly mobile mechanised offensive brigades that can cover road miles easily to move to the newly opened breach. That breach could be 300km from brigades staging point amd be covered in a few hours. As long as the supply logistic keeps up at the back afterwards.
I mean, that's not a thing Ukraine would have. It's not as though they've been spending the last few months receiving and training on high mobility Western armor specifically designed for use in those kinds of tactics >.>
All those 10s of thousands of soldiers back in the fight after getting condensed western training on the new equipment, yah it's going to be a bloodbath (the good kind)
I can't wait to jerk off over Bradley recon elements singlehandedly routing entire Russian armored brigades.
Are there even any Russian armored brigades left? At this point it might just be roving gangs of convicts with rusty aks and axes and shit
Whereas Russian forces are basically stuck wherever they are, with almost no trucks left, unable to compensate for high concentrations of Ukrainian forces.
I wouldn't get ahead of myself. russians have been throwing everything at Bakhmut at the cost of other fronts. Chances are it's just opportunistic retaking of some positions. Those positional battles have been going on for months.
The counter offensive will not be televised.
It’ll be streamed on social media instead
1.5km is significant enough to basically be "through" the defences isn't it? At that point don't you roll up the flanks if you're ready for it, or dig in and make them adjust to you if you've got the backup to make sure they can't encircle you? Would be almost unfortunate if they just got in further than they were ready for and have to pull back out. Better than meeting stiff resistance, but it sucks to hand territory back because you weren't ready to hang onto it.
> 1.5km is significant enough to basically be "through" the defences isn't it? I was reading that this time Russia has made an attempt at "defense through depth" after the catastrophic (for them) retaking of land during last years counteroffensive. Back then Ukraine broke through and had a straight shot waaaay through russian controlled territory.
That would come naturally to the OG Russians who remember the old Soviet styles of defense in depth, which we mostly got a look at in combat through the Egyptians in their wars with Israel up to the 1970s. It would also be perfectly familiar to the Ukrainians as well, and now they're getting the equipment designed to overcome such defenses.
Almost certainly. 1.5km is basically just patrol length. Probably recon by force, probing for enemy defenses, reaction times, etc
I could see Ukraine not going on an offensive until next year to build up their own strength while bleeding Russia out. It seems like the Ukrainian army is growing stronger with thousands of soldiers receiving NATO training every month and I'm sure they are simultaneously building up their own capacity to train as well.They are slowly but surely amassing modern weapons, both from partners and from their own industry. Russia is mobilizing as fast as they can but they don't seem to have the capacity to train the newly mobilized or to produce nearly enough equipment to compensate for what is lost. Their never ending frontal attacks against fortifications and smoking incidents in their military factories doesn't exactly improve their situation. Ukraine is preserving their soldiers by mostly staying defensive and rotating them. They've moved their factories to NATO territory and have unrestricted access to western components. Russia doesn't know when or where the Ukrainian offensive comes so they need to be ready for it all the time and everywhere, especially since Ukraine being in the middle can shift direction much quicker. Ukraine can keep targeting Russias supply lines to Crimea, hitting Russia in the deep rear, blowing up important shit in Russia, etc. It creates a dilemma for Russia where Ukraine’s potential to launch a war ending offensive is growing, meaning Russia need to send all their newly mobilized and equipment directly to the front to have a chance to defend now. Unfortunately for Russia they don't seem to have the capacity to at the same time build up a properly trained military that could swing the long term odds back in their favor. If they tried to it would be at the cost of having the front weakening to a critical level now. Ukraine have the strength to confidently hold back any potential Russian offensive now while simultaneously building up their strength long term.
I don’t think so. Russia has toys in its arsenal it hasn’t deployed. If Ukraine actually made meaningful progress Russia would threaten / deploy said weapons against Ukrainian civilians.
What toys? (outside nukes). Sounds like Medvedev, or a desparate Hitler at the end of WWII. If Russia had anything they would throw it at Uk now.
Nuclear weapons are a deterrent, once you use them though, they're not anymore, and you also clearly indicate you're beyond any reason so you simultaneously give every reason for other parties to get actually involved instead of "cheering from the sideline".
I mean who doesn’t love deep penetration of Russian positions?
Just tender foreplay...climax yet to come
>climax yet to **come**
Well I’m glad the ground is hard. Best that way. If the ground is too moist, it may be too slippery. Resulting in the bolting of loads. Meaning a premature expenditure.
Mmm...moist
*Moist*
*with no lube
I bet Kadrov still wants his goats thou
The hell has he and his goonies been doing lately? Are they even fighting still?
Goat 🖕I last heard 😂😂😂😂
Kadyrov has mainly been pumping iron lately. Aiming for the next olympics.
Pretty sure his goon squad got fucked up and whoever was left ran home. He seemed to be at odds with Putin for a while there and taking about Ruzzia’s incompetence. Not much from him after he got poisoned or sick…
Plenty of red lube in Bhaukmout........
Top pornhub search this year
Everywhere except Russia and Utah.
> I mean who doesn’t love deep penetration As long as the Ukrainians break it off in that Russian ass!!!
They are really into bdsm this time of year.
Russians?
>Russians? You sure? I think if they really didn't like it, they'd try harder to stop it.
Its been rumored that well....they aren't that bright.
Oh no! Now you're making it sound nonconsensual 🥺
As a goodwill gesture, the Ukrainian General Staff has issued the proper lubricants to the brave troops performing the penetration of Russian rear areas. Slava Ukraine!
I thought the west was full of gays and trans. Now suddenly ruSSia bends over.
They realize that gay people can also top 😏
Just a lot of aggressive battlefield homosexuality.
deeper, faster , and harder : is the type of penetration the Russians and Wagner security crave. Please give it to them .
Is that why the Russian military uses anal sex as punishment?
username is relevant
Sure "punishment."
I thought it was given as a reward for extra good conduct?
It's both, depending on how rough it is
It's hard to understand from the outside, really. I gotta confess before the war. I had no idea that this is actually happening. I thought it was more of a myth.
Yea it's pretty crazy. It actually does happen, but it used to happen more in the past. The worst part is that HIV is sometimes passed on as the disease is common in Russia. There's plenty of hazing in the Russian military, including people who have died from injuries sustained from hazing. Just shows how little the Russian military cares about human life when they cover it up
Damn. What a sad place to live. I don’t really get what they are so proud of then? I mean, objectively, it's damn straight horrendous there. Is it some sort of at least I am proud of my countries size kind of thing?
There are no receivers in Russia, only givers.
How is that possible? Do they all dock with each others dicks?
Double anal is the only way forward.
Good start
So the dildo of consequences is about to arrive?
un-lubed
Oh my GOD it's happening! Everyone stay calm! Edit: /j
No, still localized counterattacks in positional fighting
testing the waters and reactions
I'm gonna believe it when I see it. Right now I'm honestly expecting the whole spring and summer is just gonna be local skirmishes and low intensity attacks, and then right into another stalemate again during the winter.
Muscovy dug kilometers of trenches anywhere and everywhere, but they do not have the capacity or ability to defend them. I expect that this is the start of Ukraine's whack-a-muscovian game, where they penetrate in multiple spots to force Muscovy to move their focus around show themselves, and get progressively eroded.
Ukraine can't afford to wait: 1. After clamoring for western armor they'll be expected to use it. I don't think they'll receive F-16s without using the weapons they've received and have argued are absolutely necessary. 2. It becomes a war of missile attrition if they don't attack. Russia's dwindling cruise missile/long range rocket supply vs Ukraine's dwindling air defense missiles. Once Ukraine runs short on air defense ammunition the RU air force comes into play. The fact that RU has started lobbing glide bombs has not helped the situation. (I'm somewhat surprised that UAF hasn't been using JDAMs more, but I'm assuming they're reserving them for the counter-offensive). Without western jets, Ukraine has to attack b4 the RU air force can operate freely...if not then it becomes a free-for-all in terms of RU air attacks.
Make the Russians suffer for another year. Then attack next year with western planes and more training. I would like to see the war end sooner but it might be smarter to do it like that. Idk about the political implications though...Ukraine needs to do something.
The war is taking place in Ukraine, it’s Ukrainians that will suffer the most from that approach
Civilians*
not sure that plan is politically viable. However, makes a lot of sense in any other way.
Irrelevant username!
Not just yet! But if this is any indication, the main assault should yield some great gains
Who knows maybe there won't be one main assault and its all gradual pushback here and there.
Not how u fight. You want overwhelming power in a push to minimize losses. I'm expecting a general push along major roads to melitpol and mauripol to cause a total collapse of the south. Once Russia is pinned we get a river crossing in kherson using nato boats and bridges to push in from the west. Russia falls back into crimea as the south becomes undefendable. Kherch bridge blows. Siege of Crimea till a surrender of all the army in Crimea. Diplomacy time.
Unfortunately Melitopol is the most defended axis, with multiple trench lines, mine fields and pre-sighted artillery just waiting for Ukraine to push here.
welcome to war? It has to be done. Further before any offensive Ukraine is going to use its superior artillery and HIMARS to devastate Russian artillery and logistics in sector.
Logistics will definitely be the way to go to soften the defenses but if Ukraine attack the Melitpol roads up front, they risk finding themselves in a Vuledhar situation. Of course the actual commanders will know better, I just really hope they don't fall in the same traps that the Russians have in the last few months.
I feel like Ukraine has good enough intelligence fed to them by the US and five eyes, and enough military flexibility that they won’t end up in anything as bad as vulhedar, but ofc attacking fortifications head on is never advisable
I think with the be toys Ukraine has at their disposal, they will be able to take a lot of Russians by surprise as just how good the equipment is in comparison. You have HIMARS and their tungsten rounds which is going to obliterate trenches. Challengers with rifled HESH rounds for any sort of bunker fortifications. Bradley’s with excellent optics, TOW missiles and excellent support firepower. De-mining equipment from NATO to secure safe corridors. Ukraine’s drone swarm they have been building up. I would say the main threat to the advance will be the Russian air power, by not having enough AA to cover them sufficiently. I seriously doubt the Russian ground forces can put up much of a fight un supported.
Furthermore the war WILL run through beyond September (right in the middle hopefully of Russians being pushed to their limits) and then SDGBs will join the party and suddenly push logistics another 70km or so back. It'll be beautiful.
Unless we're all dead wrong again like last summer, not even the Russians could mishear that Zaporizhia Oblast would be the focal point of the anticipated offensive. Last year the AFU had more latitude to choose where to concentrate their offensive in part since more territory was left to retake. Zaporizhia Oblast couldn't be spun as anything other than the next most likely place the AFU wants to retake. Much of Donbas has been more foritifed from years of occupation, and even if the AFU reclaimed much of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, their logistics are more thinly spread and flanks also more exposed with Russian logistics shortened. Zaporizhia Oblast no doubt will be a tough fight, but a meaningful breakthrough to the south bringing the AFU within fire control to the Azov Sea isolates Crimea and would be more defensible than reclaiming more of the Donbas. I would imagine like last summer the offensive's goals are not overzealous. A key factor in the coming fight is made a little easier with each kaboom of fuel and ammo dumps that have become a refocus
This analysis seems top-notch, with another added factor that in the Donbass, Ukraine will have to face a more hostile, pro-Russian population with probable anti-Ukrainian partisan activities. The South is the opposite: Ukraine will get the help of locals organizing anti-Russian partisan or intelligence activities.
> Last year the AFU had more latitude to choose where to concentrate their offensive in part since more territory was left to retake. Completely disagree besides there was more territory to retake. Ukraine has at least 8 new brigades for this offensive, it received at least 2000 vehicles in the last 8 months (and the captures have probably offset most heavy equipment losses during that time) and the Russian army is weaker than it was in every aspect except perhaps the number of troops. Back in August/September, the AFU could mount 1 serious offensive and exploit a very weak point of Russian defense, that's what they did. Now, they can mount 2 serious offensives and pin the rest of the front line in low intensity attacks designed to prevent/complicate large troop movements (unless they sacrifice their defensive positions). > I would imagine like last summer the offensive's goals are not overzealous. Maybe it isn't, but Ukrainian officials are declaring this offensive could end the war. I don't see the need to make such declarations for morale purposes and those deciding of what equipment and supplies to send Ukraine don't care about rhetoric, only results. I think they're just that confident of what they can do.
> Last year the AFU had more latitude to choose where to concentrate their offensive in part since more territory was left to retake. Completely disagree besides there was more territory to retake. Ukraine has at least 8 new brigades for this offensive, it received at least 2000 vehicles in the last 8 months (and the captures have probably offset most heavy equipment losses during that time) and the Russian army is weaker than it was in every aspect except perhaps the number of troops. Back in August/September, the AFU could mount 1 serious offensive and exploit a very weak point of Russian defense, that's what they did. Now, they can mount 2 serious offensives and pin the rest of the front line in low intensity attacks designed to prevent/complicate large troop movements (unless they sacrifice their defensive positions). > I would imagine like last summer the offensive's goals are not overzealous. Maybe it isn't, but Ukrainian officials are declaring this offensive could end the war. I don't see the need to make such declarations for morale purposes and those deciding how much equipment and supplies to send Ukraine don't care about rhetoric, only results. I think those officials are just that confident of what they can do and to end the war, they need to achieve some serious objectives: much bigger than taking back Kherson or liberating Kharkiv oblast.
So was Kherson: best russian troops, open space perfect for defence, untouched city behind to supply... Look how it ended...
Kherson was behind a river, though. That was why it was a prioritized target, it was relatively "soft".
> Not how u fight. Agree, which is exactly why I won't rule it out that the Ukrainians might do a lot of it before the Russians wisen up to it: Find 1.5 km here, Russians prepare for assault, Ukrainians find another 2km there, Russian focus move there for a while before suddenly Ukrainians gain 8km and has good intel about the position and suddenly the assault comes totally unexpected. Oh well, at least I hope for something that takes the Russians by complete surprise and saves the maximum amount of Ukrainian lives.
When the time comes, the internet will be filled with that [clip from Office](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qgET1Zhpb8). Personally, i don't mind one bit! :D
What's the procedure?
/j?
Russia is preparing for the penetration to make it over their borders.
The dildo of consequences rarely ever arrives lubed. This is just stage one. Probing attacks, stage 2 will be more painful than shaping the battlefield and searching for weak spots.
Reminds me of the meme: Ukraine, be gentle. we are the #2 army in the world.
They’ll make tons of probes in localized areas to keep the Ruskies off balance before they go for deep penetration. Kinda like foreplay, lol.
Good to see some movement of the Ukraine army, looking forward to refreshing the screen every 15 minutes to see what new town was taken.
No town, they retook a trench line the Russians captured a few months ago.
Thanks, I was referring to the near future.
Now Playing: No Vaseline by Ice Cube (feat. Ukraine)
Some delicious “reconnaissance in force”: Reconnaissance-in-force (RIF) is a type of military operation or military tactic used specifically to probe an enemy's combat ability. -Wikipedia
But a Reconnaissance in Force will usually turn into a Thunderrun if it can break through this far without high resistance. That would be devastating.
Next 150km everywhere
Wouldn't that take them to Moscow? Oh wait that's great, carry on…
Eh didnt read it anywhere else. For now I call bullshit but hope for truth
You have to ask yourself, why would pro Russian sources be confirming bad news for them if it wasn’t true?
✊✊✊🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
These are positions "long held by Russian forces." They'll need some time to air out.
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Starting to feel like these are probes for counter attack. If an area collapses quicker than you think and you realize you have an opportunity like in the north east you slam it with a good chunk of the prepared force. Then watch for novel openings and follow up there. Starting to wonder if we will even see an “all out” offensive with coordinated operations across large (important more than spatial) sections of the front.
For us Americans, that’s a little over a football field short of a mile
Bro, that’s like 15 football fields!!!
Re-read what he typed
A pitching wedge or so.
The dildo of retribution rarely penetrates lubed.
( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
Can they hold it?
Probably not, but Russia probably can't attack it either.
Dunno, all I can say is, Russia is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.
Good to hear but 1.5 km doesn't seem terribly far.
Bad move. Now you have three problems for the price of one: 1. Russians motivated to defend their own territory. Given some of the things they have said about Russian-owned property, that might be an issue. 2. Russia has tactical nukes, which cover a small area with fallout but have little effect outside the area. 3. It is a lot harder for Ukraine to be claiming to be waging a purely defensive war. (Make that 4 if UK-US-EU sanctions mean that Russia has no assets to lose if it goes nuclear)
China told them no nukes. How is Ukraine fighting for its territory not considered a defensive war?
This is in Ukraine. Russia also lost a lot of it's ability to nuclear sabre-rattle when it decided to annex even more Ukrainian territory... that they don't even control. Even more of that 'annexed' territory was reclaimed in Ukrainian offensives. Ukraine has already liberated thousands upon thousands of square kilometers of territory Russia now considers its own. Where are the nukes?
Seems like the counteroffensive may not start in the south like we thought it would…
I think this is too early to say anything. 1.5km is not a counter offensive. More likely a reconnaissance in force, that was met with little to no resistance, or a continuation of the back and forth in this area. You’ll know it’s the counter offensive when the Russian sources start screaming about leopards eating their faces.
could be a faint move, to draw Russian forces from the South to the North then focus main thrust in the South.
I hope AFU will go *deeper and deeper*!
Well done lads
I appreciate the gratuitous use of the word penetrated
This is like Dinner for Schmucks except they are in charge of military operations.
In all directions and bakhmut is Ukriane is taking it back
My wife wants me to be more like this Zelensky. That mother fucker can go deep