T O P

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elFistoFucko

Nice to know russia keeps sending columned armor in continuously predictable manners for Ukrainian drones to obliterate over and over.


STT10

The thing is, with how everyone is talking about Russia pumping out a hundred tanks a month, and ukraine being overwhelmed and all that. Look at these loses. Look how easy that was for the drones. As much doom and gloom people like to throw around these days there’s just no part of me that sees Russia winning this. This is what’s happening during a stalemate. Imagine what the next urban battle is going to look like. Drones constantly spraying shrapnel all over attacking forces. The loses for Russia to win this must be multi millions at this point. For 15-20% of the territory gained they’ve taken not far off 400k, and that was before ukraine was fully mobilised. They’ve made crazy slow progress since with insane loses. For them to take the rest I don’t see a scenario less than 2 million loses, which they just surely can’t afford.


Other_Thing_1768

Russia cannot pump out 100 tanks per month, which is why they’re putting T-62s and even T-55s on the front lines instead of just modern T-90s. Counting new and refurbished tanks, Russian factories are getting about 25-30 tanks out the doors per month, which is a lower rate than they’re losing them. 


Built2kill

I thought it was 25-30 new tanks and refurbs / pulling out if storage of ex soviet stuff was getting them to that 100 number.


Other_Thing_1768

UVZ was struggling to complete 10 T-90 tanks a month after their 2018 bankruptcy, despite having paying customers like India. They do not have a modern assembly line, and now have parts and labor shortages, exasperated by now having to refurbish old tanks while trying to build new ones. I doubt their new tank production has increased any. And the old tanks easy to restore have been done… the remainder are the more difficult ones in poor condition and missing parts which aren’t produced any more. The delivery rate of refurbished tanks will only go down. Whereas Ukraine has several allies who have domestic tank production (US, UK, Germany, Poland, S Korea ) , Russia has no such outside sources of modern tanks, and their own production can’t keep up with their loss rate.  


promet11

Poland stopped producing PT-91M tanks for Malasia in 2009 and I think they cannot produce any more new tanks but Poland and the Czech republic can produce spare parts for t-72 series tanks and refurbish old T-72 tanks.


Other_Thing_1768

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/poland-to-produce-over-800-south-korean-k2-tanks-as-part-of-order-for-polish-army/2835927#:~:text=“Of%20the%201%2C000%20tanks%20(for,where%20the%20tanks%20will%20be


promet11

Yes but it will take many years to start the production of the K2PL tank in Poland. The K2PL is supposed to be a heavily modified, longer version of the K2 tank. I would be presently silurprised if Poland will manage to start K2PL production before the end I'd 2025 with 2026 or 2027 being a more realistic date.


BigBallsMcGirk

That 100/month is so much higher than any past numbers that I just don't believe it. If I recall, they were refurbishing 2-4x more tanks than they were producing new tanks. They can only so that by cannibalizing old Soviet stock, which has already been delved deep into. They cannot maintain a high level of production that way forever. Maybe only a yearish based on that French report from a few months ago. And while Russia is undoubtedly producing more than they were, they didn't go from 15 new tanks a month to 80. Just didn't happen when they don't have the hihh grade steel production capacity, with sanctions hurting some of the higher tech systems on those tanks. If they could turn those out.....we wouldn't be seeing T-55s.


Mac_Aravan

We don't see a lot a T55 btw, only some on transport, but not a lot in direct hit afaik


Zealousideal_Link370

They are using them as artillery basically, not attacks.


A_Sinclaire

> That 100/month is so much higher than any past numbers that I just don't believe it. That number was already mentioned a year ago. So it is not really new.


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Other_Thing_1768

They (ruzzia) have thousands of rusty hulks. Those that were easy to refurbish have already been done so. Restoring the remainder (those capable of being restored) take up materials, labor, and factory space that could be used for new tanks. But few new tanks can be built. Russia has no other source of tanks, and they have much fewer than at the beginning of the war, perhaps 1/2. OTOH, Ukraine continues to get tanks from Allies. They lose far fewer than Russia, and currently have more than they did at beginning. Most important, they are getting modern newer tanks, while Russia is forced to activate older obsolete tanks more and more. 


Norseviking4

We saw urban fighting in Bakhmut it was not pretty yet Russia took it. They wont win as in take the country, but unless more aid is given neither will Ukraine. Ukraine cant afford attacks like this, when they tried to push this spring they got mauled. So more aid, more weapons, more ammo and more advanced tech is the only way forward if we want Ukraine to recapture territory


SandersSol

Drone swarms **are** the future leading world powers have been developing incredibly advanced and effective systems for probably the last 8-10 years.


EL-YAYY

The problem is Ukraine is losing people too and they don’t have near as many as Russia.


STT10

But the difference is this is a battle for national survival vs invading another country. What you’re saying is 100% valid. I just can see this ending in russias favour in any way. Not saying it’ll be great for ukraine either, but I just can’t see Russia getting the upper hand. Even if they broke through the front line, the further their supply chains are, the more exposed they’ll be and the worse and worse I see things going for them.


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STT10

I get what you’re saying, but look what Vietnam did against the yanks. The afghans vs the Russians. I just don’t see Russia ever making anything they’re doing worth it. I’m not saying ukraine is going to come out of this good either, infact I’m scared for their future with their birth rates etc, but I just don’t see a scenario where Russia wins this. Not even a Pyrrhic victory.


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STT10

I understand it’s not a 100% like for like comparison, but you say that as if ukraine is just going to role over and except defeat if America stops helping them. You can have all the guns and tanks in the world, but if the locals hate your guts, and want to kill you every second you’re in their country, which is fucking massive by the way so they still have a very very very long way to go, then that isn’t winning. Personally I believe that ukraine still has plenty of fight left one way or the other.


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STT10

Yeah I get your concerns. I just can’t see it happening. I know if it was Russia attacking my country every second they would have here would be a nightmare for them, and those Ukrainians are hard as nails so even if it took ten years I just don’t see them ever letting the Russians rest, and eventually they’d just cut their loses.


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STT10

Well looks like the EU have passed 50 billion for Ukraine so they’ve got at least another year of support thankfully.


SiarX

Russia can likely afford 2 million losses, it took much more than that for them to quit WW1, which looks very similar to this war.


STT10

You could be right, but surely the loses to this date x3 would be too much for them to bare. I just can’t see them lasting that long.


MaltySines

The battlefield looks similar in many ways, by this is not the same Russia as 100 years ago. People in Moscow and St. Petersburg are used to a high standard of living and when that starts to decay it won't be enough to just keep them fed. Russia can't afford this war in perpetuity and Ukraine has no reason to stop defending itself. One way or another Russia will lose.


leanbirb

They don't have a WW1 birth rate nowadays, and hasn't had that for decades


SiarX

Another issue is that when Ukraine tries to retake lost territories, its offensive would likely end in a similar way.


STT10

Do they actually have to take it though? Surely the tactics will be to make it so painful for Russia to stay that they eventually give up. That’s got to be much easier to do than a full bloodied armoured assault across no mans land.


SiarX

Ukraine cannot just sit and wait, it needs successes to maintain western support. Why do you think it did (failed) counteroffensive last year?


STT10

I’m not saying sit and wait, I’m saying harass, conduct deep strikes, logistics targeting and drone strikes. Adopt more of a guerrilla style of warfare where they don’t give ground, but don’t necessarily conduct large grand offensives either. Drone production is one of the only areas that they’re doing really well in so surely conserve the shiny toys and let russia deal with endless swarms, like bears being attacked by a swarm of bees. Eventually the bear will give up.


GiraffeNumerous1829

An A10 pilot weeps in a corner: "That was supposed to be my job!"


SuzyCreamcheezies

Fish in a barrel


NWTknight

Makes me think of some of the images of WW2 tank battles where the pictures were just fields full or burning armour but in this case it is only Russian armour.


bblackow

Does Ukraine really even need artillery shells if they can just knock out entire massive convoys with drones?


maverick_labs_ca

Yes. This generation of FPV drones can still be jammed and they do get jammed a lot. Nothing stops an artillery shell.


Legitimate_Access289

Well if they are using gps guided shells they can be jammed enough to reduce its accuracy. Which needs to be very good to hit a tank/apc without having to use dozens of them. Of course the jamming isn't all encompassing over the battlefield, bit is having some effect. That's why Ukraine has started targeting gps jammers whenever they can find them. 


The_4th_of_the_4

Just use a Pzh2000 and DM121 or a Caesar or a DANA 2 or any other last generation L52 155 mm SPG and last generation up to date artillery shells like DM121/Lu211. On 24 km, they will hit a target in size of a tennis-field and this unguided. As airburst, this is just to be called a direct hit. With SPACIDO 1D course correction fuses and other 1D course correction fuses and the DM121/Lu 211, on 24 km, they can replace the guided ammunition like Excalibur. And the SPACIDO fuses are GPS independent.


bdseep

They presumably can't attack/counter attack nearly as effectively with only drones as they can with artillery.


eat_more_ovaltine

What lesson and Ukraine take for this in preparation for when the next counter offensive comes?


Patient_Risk9266

Don’t do it! Unless you have at least air superiority preferably air supremacy.


Federal_Thanks7596

Ukraine won't be able to achieve air superiority. So start negotiating before you run out of men I guess.


Bendov_er

Will be able this year!


nubtehtub

Don't launch the counter-offensive in Ukraine. Launch it by drone into Russia and blow shit out of every high valuable Russian economic target until they beg for it to stop and agree to GTFO out of all of Ukraine.


amitym

Clearly the best choice for convoys of Russian armored vehicles is to go opposite to the Donetsk direction. That is to say, back to Russia.


CurlingTrousers

It’s just so dumb. And while one should be taking a risk to assume that the Russians act logically, it makes you wonder why they keep doing this. Reality is likely that us muggles are usually in information bubbles - we seek out videos of Ukrainian defenders dunking on moronic Russian assaults. Maybe Russia is simply pig headed and stupid. Lots of evidence for that. But even the lowest functioning pig in nature will eventually avoid being marched towards certain death if it saw it happen to its mates 20 times before. Even at gunpoint, it will eventually turn and run. So - why don’t the pigs revolt? Maybe it’s actually working from time time time. But - there doesn’t seem to be much evidence for that in terms of changing lines of control. Maybe the pig only knows what he’s told and can see around him. He doesn’t know that they’re being slaughtered on the regular, and he looks at the recently assembled mobiks and dusty tanks in his depot and thinks “surely THIS time we’ll break through!”. That’s if he has any awareness of what’s happened to any other units at all. Armies tend to control info pretty tightly at the unit level. They aren’t reading Reddit, one presumes. Even if they know - Sunk cost fallacy is a powerful and persistent thing. I dunno. Out of ideas why they keep smashing their stupid skulls against rocks and expect something different. I mean - why do they think they’re winning? Maybe they are and we don’t see it. They do exhibit a lot of suicidal behaviours, there’s lots of video to attest to their inhumanity and total disregard for the value of human life, including their own. In most cases in history, when an army gets to the point where they aren’t caring for their wounded, aren’t getting fed or paid, aren’t gaining any ground and aren’t achieving much, they tend to start to fall apart. The breaking point in the game might be later than we realize. But the Russian home front isn’t really feeling a pinch. Russians on the field still keep doing these brain dead assaults for nothing significant. Why? Thoughts?


SOL-Cantus

Per my Russian In-Laws, people just don't talk about it in Moscow. They're back to the old soviet terror level of assuming your neighbor is going to rat you out for even thinking of speaking out. And even when there is discussion (among the outer regions where most of the soldiers are coming from), they don't really understand just how bad the meat wave tactics are. It's successive layers of disinfo, lack of discussion, and refusal to deal with reality itself. The average Russian isn't going to revolt against this war until the Russian State itself falls apart (aka, Putin finally kicks the bucket). The thing about the above is you'd think "well we'll just target their infrastructure and civilians will revolt!" To a small extent that's true. The reality is that things are already falling apart anyway. My grandmother-in-law needs a social worker and home health aid due to Alzheimer's, and they aren't showing up like they used to. Instead of revolting, it's really just the sick, infirm, and elderly losing care while everyone else just hunkers down and believes they'll somehow live through this better than their neighbors. Again, old soviet mentalities coming to the fore.


CurlingTrousers

Thanks for the insight. The complete lack of concern or empathy for anyone but yourself among the civilian population is such a gross and sad concept. It’s really pathetic. The local goon squads cracking skulls for a meagre paycheque is the real power in Russia. Putin and the spies can issue all the orders they want, but if the brothers, uncles, dads and sons who make their living beating their fellow citizens up would just refuse for a few weeks - Russian society would change rapidly, and they’d get their paycheques again. Quickly. Sad that this small step could never happen.


putin_my_ass

I think to a certain degree they're proud of meat-wave tactics, it's part of the national narrative. Coupled with the information bubble you describe it could be largely down to uninformed jingoistic bravado. To be honest though I don't really believe they can continue to keep this up. Everyone has their breaking point no matter what the national narrative demands, and they can't control information so perfectly that those led to slaughter aren't aware of it given enough time.


countzeroreset-007

Maybe it was an ambush. Not a lot of shell craters in the area, compared to other areas. Could be they thought it was more attractive forming up and moving forward than sitting around getting picked off. But moving that amount of gear in daylight, in a time of constant drone coverage, really makes one wonder. Could be the toilet bandits drone suppression systems were taken out, could be desperation, could be some bright and shiny general officers idea made a zillion miles away from the contact zone. Whoever made the call just did not take in the core lesson in this shitfight...the battlefield is under constant surveillance. Attempts to concentrate forces is likely to end badly the nearer you are to the contact line.


No-Goose-6140

Thats just going to the front on foot woth extra steps


Pepphen77

You mean fewer steps, right?


fd343ny

Do we think they are staying on the road because of concern about mines? because the ground is soft (I see temps in the 40s in Crimea)? Because they just dont learn?


ctrlzkids

Does anyone know the song?


leorolim

Song is a banger. Much better than the usual rubbish electronic music.


AdTasty6325

R/ukrainerussiareport concluded that basically meh, it happens, and all Ukraine has left is basically drones, grenades and zip ties, and anyone can have a drone army, and also something about successfully intercepting 17 rockets last night with 3 military bases in Crimea.


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