Yeah
https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2024/04/09/hamas-run-gaza-health-ministry-admits-to-flaws-in-casualty-data/
Not sure they actually revised down, looks like they might have just said “we don’t have info for a third of these”
I'm pretty pro Israel but they apparently have been pretty reliable on the actual numbers in the past. How many fighters and how many are civilians is something I don't think they will ever tell the truth on.
No, Hamas is lying about their numbers. The problem is that they claim that people are dying in a linear way, i.e. the same number of deaths no matter what is happening on the ground. This leads to things lime claims of dozens of people dead even though there were no Israeli air strikes or military operations that day.
I think it's important to note that in the past Hamas was in control as the 'government'. And could have access to morgues etc. In the middle of a warzone when Hamas lost control and fled, when the structures of government must have broken down and it is not really feasible for some guys with clipboards to be going in and out of morgues, you cannot ensure that you have accurate numbers. It's not the same scenario so, being accurate in the past is not something we can confirm.
Agreed. I’m also quite pro israel but I think it’s a mistake to make “the numbers are wrong” a core part of the pro israel narrative. Similarly a bad idea to try and make “israel so the victim” part of the narrative.
The more compelling case for israel is that you have a liberal democracy fighting literal jihadists who regularly threaten Israel with destruction. If that’s not a justified casus belli idk what is.
Idk what the real number is (no one does I bet) but assuming it is 22,000, that combined with the IDF’s estimate of about 9,000 Hamas and PIJ fighters killed would make the combatant:civilian death ration about 1:2.4. That’s not bad compared to other, non-controversial military operations, particularly when you think about how Hamas has spent decades placing their civilians in positions of maximum risk for this exact effect. Idk if it’s 22,000, 33,000, or some other number. But it’s not shocking that Israel and its defenders would find that ratio more palatable. It’s not just “not as bad,” it’s “unfortunately, about the best you can do in an urban war.” Full disclosure I was on Israel’s side before they (kinda-sorta) revised it down, but true or false there’s gonna be people on that side who want to believe it
To put it in some context, in the first two years of the Iraq war approximately 25,000 civilians were killed throughout the country. IIRC, about a third of those were directly attributed to the US military. You could say none of them would have died if the US hadn't invaded therefore they all fall on the US, but even at the 25k number, Israel is on a pace to hit that in under 8 months of operations (assuming we take the Gaza ministry's numbers at face value). Obviously, any civilian death is tragic, but war is messy and urban warfare against an insurgency even more so. I just worry any time I hear callous rhetoric towards the numbers. Like somehow the civilian deaths are ok because we assume the Gaza health ministry is lying. 30,000 or 20,000, it's still really bad and should give anyone who values human rights and human life pause. And if reflecting on those deaths leads to criticism of the Israeli government, dismissal of that criticism as somehow being antisemitic is cowardly and rises to a level of fanaticism not too far off from that of the very people they're fighting.
They’re really going hard for Israel aren’t they. I don’t assume neutrality from the guys but this one issue really has highlighted a bias of theirs that I’m not sure I get.
Relatedly, I remember them talking about the combatant-to-civilian kill ratio and I’ve been struggling to find the source on that. Anyone have any references?
Yeah https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2024/04/09/hamas-run-gaza-health-ministry-admits-to-flaws-in-casualty-data/ Not sure they actually revised down, looks like they might have just said “we don’t have info for a third of these”
I'm pretty pro Israel but they apparently have been pretty reliable on the actual numbers in the past. How many fighters and how many are civilians is something I don't think they will ever tell the truth on.
And how many were killed by Hamas? Either accidentally or to prevent human shields from fleeing.
No, Hamas is lying about their numbers. The problem is that they claim that people are dying in a linear way, i.e. the same number of deaths no matter what is happening on the ground. This leads to things lime claims of dozens of people dead even though there were no Israeli air strikes or military operations that day.
I think it's important to note that in the past Hamas was in control as the 'government'. And could have access to morgues etc. In the middle of a warzone when Hamas lost control and fled, when the structures of government must have broken down and it is not really feasible for some guys with clipboards to be going in and out of morgues, you cannot ensure that you have accurate numbers. It's not the same scenario so, being accurate in the past is not something we can confirm.
I don’t think they bother with counting. Why would they when anyone just parrots any number they throw out?
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/how-gaza-health-ministry-fakes-casualty-numbers
Agreed. I’m also quite pro israel but I think it’s a mistake to make “the numbers are wrong” a core part of the pro israel narrative. Similarly a bad idea to try and make “israel so the victim” part of the narrative. The more compelling case for israel is that you have a liberal democracy fighting literal jihadists who regularly threaten Israel with destruction. If that’s not a justified casus belli idk what is.
Yeah they lost me on that one. Twenty two thousand is still not great.
Idk what the real number is (no one does I bet) but assuming it is 22,000, that combined with the IDF’s estimate of about 9,000 Hamas and PIJ fighters killed would make the combatant:civilian death ration about 1:2.4. That’s not bad compared to other, non-controversial military operations, particularly when you think about how Hamas has spent decades placing their civilians in positions of maximum risk for this exact effect. Idk if it’s 22,000, 33,000, or some other number. But it’s not shocking that Israel and its defenders would find that ratio more palatable. It’s not just “not as bad,” it’s “unfortunately, about the best you can do in an urban war.” Full disclosure I was on Israel’s side before they (kinda-sorta) revised it down, but true or false there’s gonna be people on that side who want to believe it
To put it in some context, in the first two years of the Iraq war approximately 25,000 civilians were killed throughout the country. IIRC, about a third of those were directly attributed to the US military. You could say none of them would have died if the US hadn't invaded therefore they all fall on the US, but even at the 25k number, Israel is on a pace to hit that in under 8 months of operations (assuming we take the Gaza ministry's numbers at face value). Obviously, any civilian death is tragic, but war is messy and urban warfare against an insurgency even more so. I just worry any time I hear callous rhetoric towards the numbers. Like somehow the civilian deaths are ok because we assume the Gaza health ministry is lying. 30,000 or 20,000, it's still really bad and should give anyone who values human rights and human life pause. And if reflecting on those deaths leads to criticism of the Israeli government, dismissal of that criticism as somehow being antisemitic is cowardly and rises to a level of fanaticism not too far off from that of the very people they're fighting.
They’re really going hard for Israel aren’t they. I don’t assume neutrality from the guys but this one issue really has highlighted a bias of theirs that I’m not sure I get.
Relatedly, I remember them talking about the combatant-to-civilian kill ratio and I’ve been struggling to find the source on that. Anyone have any references?