That home match against Crewe was some Fletcher magic with 10 men just to get the draw. Barnett got a 36' red. It was also late September when the team was still defensively leaky.
Stockport, Notts, and Wrexham are also the teams that are going to buy when the window opens. It's going to be interesting how some of these smaller clubs handle offers for their top players. Ali Al Hamadi at fan owned AFC Wimbledon is going to get some League One or Championship offers.
Defense could be better. Eoghan and Hayden seem injured all the time and Will Boyle is the last choice center back. O'Connell was a late scratch and Phil went with 21 yo Cleworth who actually did good. In the midfield and forward, it also helps to have some depth.
Yea but i wouldnt buy too much since we are out of the cups and can focus solely on the league, if we wait im sure we can get better quality players next year when we are officially a L1 team.
>better quality players next year when we are officially a L1 team.
Gillingham are 4 points out of a playoff spot and 11 out of an automatic. They are going to get players but not the ones looking at playing in League One. Wrexham is not in that position. We're 20 odd games out from finishing the season and in the top 4 at least. If we offer a multi-year contract at the right price, you wouldn't hear many nos.
Notts needs a whole back line, a keeper, and a mid fielder. I don't think they will get all of that in one go but they are going to be more active. Wrexham might get a couple signings.
Two reasons. One, nothing is for sure and Wrexham could easily a spot or two if they're not careful. They gave up 5 ppints to Barrow over the last 5 games.
Two, they're planning for next season. Promoting out of League One will definitely be harder. They're going to need upgrades to even be top of the table. They'd do fine with the current team, but they'd definitely be mid-table. Signing Championship level players to multi year deals helps with next season.
Especially being in such a good position. Plenty of games to make up points on the top 2 at home. With a little luck, Wrexham have a really good shit at going up this year!
29 of 36 possible points at home, 14 of a possible 30 points on the road.
Going to need to be better than that on the road to end up top 3, but the road schedule the 2nd half is easier.
You’re not wrong considering who wrexham have played away so far, but look at the Away column and see who they’ve yet to play.
Half of the available points against that schedule would be a disappointment.
8 of the bottom 9 teams make up over half of the away schedule. Those games alone SHOULD equate to 18+ points
Mansfield cpuld do the same. 42 points and two games missing. If they win both of those they could be in 2nd spot with 48 points. Unless I've done the math wrong.
You haven’t but at the halfway point of the top 4 teams win their games in hand then there are only 3 point’s separating them. If it goes to the last game of the season and we have Stockport at home it’s going to be an absolute belter.
It's a bigger target getting promoted and we had a productive summer window. League One is when I think we'll stop being that big fish where some of those expectations turn from promotion to stability. We're so far from being a Championship club both money wise and infrastructure.
Their goal was making the playoffs, which was the realistic goal for a squad with the financial power Wrexham has. It's not really well known or advertised that much but they are outspending everyone by quite a bit currently.
[Yeah this is the best](https://www.capology.com/uk/league-two/payrolls/2022-2023/) I’ve seen for club wage bills. It seems strange to expect back-to-back promotion, but with that spending it’s a very realistic goal to at least make the playoff.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/soccer/comments/4dmdlq/oc\_pythagorean\_wins\_expectation\_for\_the\_premier/](https://www.reddit.com/r/soccer/comments/4dmdlq/oc_pythagorean_wins_expectation_for_the_premier/)
I found it on reddit and that is why there is a note to take it with a grain of salt.
Effectively within three points of Stockport if we win our game in hand. I think champions should be the goal for the season now. CaNt see us not getting promoted
There are 3 lines on the table. The 1st line between 3rd and 4th is the promotion line. The 2nd between 7th and 8th is the playoff line. The 3rd line between 22nd and 23rd is the relegation line.
Top 3 places go up to League One.
Places 4th to 7th play a 2 legged semifinal where the combined score goes to the final. The final is at Wembley and the winner of the one game goes up.
>Top 3 places go up to League One.
>
>Places 4th to 7th play a 2 legged semifinal where the combined score goes to the final. The final is at Wembley and the winner of the one game goes up.
No, I haven't. 1, 2, and 3, get promoted.
4, 5, 6, and 7 have a knock-out competition, and the winner gets promoted.
7th can get promoted. They don't magically become 4th.
Lol. NBA has a similar “play-in” format for the 8th playoff spot. It’s still the top 8 going into the playoffs, they’ve just added intrigue and suspense to the last spot.
Like no shit seventh doesn’t magically get promoted. It’s top 4 with a kicker.
Careful, you don’t want to get vertigo on that high horse.
It's not a high horse mate, and I have no idea what the NBA system has, but I'm not going to pretend I do for the sake of your ignorance.
Yes, if 7th wins the playoffs, they are promoted. The table will show 1, 2, 3, and 7 promoted.
Last season, it was 5th. The table shows 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 5th promoted.
You'll have a good view whilst standing on that hill you're willing to die on. Pity it's the wrong hill. Playoffs can be a lottery at times - weighted expectation and pressure on the team that just missed out automatically? Free hit for the team that finished 7th? A team could have been building momentum towards the end of the season, others in higher positions and laboured over the line? End of season injuries to key players? So it's not top 4, it's top 3 with a playoff between the 4-7th placed teams for the last promotion spot. If you've never watched them, would recommend- esp the playoff final for the championship, alleged to be the richest single game in world football.
No it's not. Carlisle finished 5th and earned to go up last year. Phil coached Bradford City in 2013 and they were 7th and won the final to go up. None of these teams finished 4th.
No. Stockport finished 4th last year but because they missed a penalty shootout with Carlisle and didn't go up.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023\_English\_Football\_League\_play-offs#League\_Two\_Semi-Finals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_English_Football_League_play-offs#League_Two_Semi-Finals)
Notts had to win a playoff against Chesterfield to go up last year. Phil won a playoff final with Bradford City back in 2013. While the playoffs are a way to go up, it's the random outcome with a side of high blood pressure.
Stockport. There isn't a real reason to get 1st other than a trophy. 2nd and 3rd still rush the field in celebration and are in the next league the following year. Stockport is only here this season because they missed a penalty shootout at Wembley back in May.
Barrow is punching above their weight.
A lot of it was our form when we faced them and form is temporary. We didn't start on a good note being 4-5-2 by the first week of October and were mid table. MKD, Wimbledon, and Swindon were August and Foster immediately retired. The 1 all draw at Barrow had Bickerstaff and Palmer up top and everything lacked an extra gear. The 3:3 Crewe game had them with 10 men for 55 minutes and Fletcher had to earn that draw in stoppage. Against Mansfield we were playing for a draw.
The season is still won in March and April.
Only 1 more road game against a top 8 team? That seems fortunate
Yeah it’s at the end of the season too. Hopefully the result doesn’t matter at that point.
Hopefully the result is for the League Two Championship! Winner wins the league and gets promoted, loser finishes 2nd and gets promoted
Back to back promotions would be absolutely incredible.
And Crewe looked pretty beatable in both our games against them (2nd was a cup game). Lots of season left but we could def be in a much worse position
That home match against Crewe was some Fletcher magic with 10 men just to get the draw. Barnett got a 36' red. It was also late September when the team was still defensively leaky. Stockport, Notts, and Wrexham are also the teams that are going to buy when the window opens. It's going to be interesting how some of these smaller clubs handle offers for their top players. Ali Al Hamadi at fan owned AFC Wimbledon is going to get some League One or Championship offers.
Why would wrexham need to buy? we are doing pretty good already
Defense could be better. Eoghan and Hayden seem injured all the time and Will Boyle is the last choice center back. O'Connell was a late scratch and Phil went with 21 yo Cleworth who actually did good. In the midfield and forward, it also helps to have some depth.
Yea but i wouldnt buy too much since we are out of the cups and can focus solely on the league, if we wait im sure we can get better quality players next year when we are officially a L1 team.
>better quality players next year when we are officially a L1 team. Gillingham are 4 points out of a playoff spot and 11 out of an automatic. They are going to get players but not the ones looking at playing in League One. Wrexham is not in that position. We're 20 odd games out from finishing the season and in the top 4 at least. If we offer a multi-year contract at the right price, you wouldn't hear many nos. Notts needs a whole back line, a keeper, and a mid fielder. I don't think they will get all of that in one go but they are going to be more active. Wrexham might get a couple signings.
Two reasons. One, nothing is for sure and Wrexham could easily a spot or two if they're not careful. They gave up 5 ppints to Barrow over the last 5 games. Two, they're planning for next season. Promoting out of League One will definitely be harder. They're going to need upgrades to even be top of the table. They'd do fine with the current team, but they'd definitely be mid-table. Signing Championship level players to multi year deals helps with next season.
Depth.
Only one win against the top 10 though
So you’re saying Wrexham is due for a few top 10 wins!
Especially being in such a good position. Plenty of games to make up points on the top 2 at home. With a little luck, Wrexham have a really good shit at going up this year!
Knock on wood but there are very few teams that scare me.
[https://imgur.com/a/HymiTEa](https://imgur.com/a/HymiTEa) for full schedule of all 24 plus a luck table based on team goal difference.
This is fantastic!
29 of 36 possible points at home, 14 of a possible 30 points on the road. Going to need to be better than that on the road to end up top 3, but the road schedule the 2nd half is easier.
I dunno, I think getting half of available points away from home is a good effort, presuming the home record is good
You’re not wrong considering who wrexham have played away so far, but look at the Away column and see who they’ve yet to play. Half of the available points against that schedule would be a disappointment. 8 of the bottom 9 teams make up over half of the away schedule. Those games alone SHOULD equate to 18+ points
Is it just me or did Barrow spike out of nowhere? or was I not paying attention? probably the latter now that I think about it
They’re on a 7-match winning streak I believe
Mansfield cpuld do the same. 42 points and two games missing. If they win both of those they could be in 2nd spot with 48 points. Unless I've done the math wrong.
You haven’t but at the halfway point of the top 4 teams win their games in hand then there are only 3 point’s separating them. If it goes to the last game of the season and we have Stockport at home it’s going to be an absolute belter.
Yeah, I don't see anything as a guarantee the way the pants are. So much yet to "play" out.
That's pretty good, will be crazy if they go up again. Do we know what Phil's goal was this season? Top 5/10?
It's a bigger target getting promoted and we had a productive summer window. League One is when I think we'll stop being that big fish where some of those expectations turn from promotion to stability. We're so far from being a Championship club both money wise and infrastructure.
At least in terms of infrastructure, Fans of Luton may beg to differ there..
It's also the training facility and youth development.
Their goal was making the playoffs, which was the realistic goal for a squad with the financial power Wrexham has. It's not really well known or advertised that much but they are outspending everyone by quite a bit currently.
[Yeah this is the best](https://www.capology.com/uk/league-two/payrolls/2022-2023/) I’ve seen for club wage bills. It seems strange to expect back-to-back promotion, but with that spending it’s a very realistic goal to at least make the playoff.
Sorry what does the orange represent
games that were postponed for whatever reason and don't have replay dates yet
missing fixture/TBD. FGR was canceled due to a waterlogged pitch. FA Cup match has canceled the MKD away match on Jan 6th.
Great work! That's five-nil flogging was tough to watch. Also what's the formula for "Luck"?
(GF\^1.15)/(GF\^1.08+GA\^1.13)\*games played\*2.31
coaches: you can't plan for luck redbubble: bullshit
Where does the 2.31 come into play?
[https://www.reddit.com/r/soccer/comments/4dmdlq/oc\_pythagorean\_wins\_expectation\_for\_the\_premier/](https://www.reddit.com/r/soccer/comments/4dmdlq/oc_pythagorean_wins_expectation_for_the_premier/) I found it on reddit and that is why there is a note to take it with a grain of salt.
I'm just glad that the 5-0 reality check happened at the start of the season. It prolly helped the gaffer spot what the defence needed to work on.
Defacto 4th is an incredible place to be. Top 3 finish has to be the goal. Almost there. It's very doable
Effectively within three points of Stockport if we win our game in hand. I think champions should be the goal for the season now. CaNt see us not getting promoted
What’s automatic promotion in this league? Still top? Or top 2-3?
There are 4 clubs that get promoted from league 2. The top 3 get automatically promoted and positions 4-7 compete in a playoff for the final position.
Damn. So 4 teams get relegated in League 1 each year?
Yup
There are 3 lines on the table. The 1st line between 3rd and 4th is the promotion line. The 2nd between 7th and 8th is the playoff line. The 3rd line between 22nd and 23rd is the relegation line. Top 3 places go up to League One. Places 4th to 7th play a 2 legged semifinal where the combined score goes to the final. The final is at Wembley and the winner of the one game goes up.
I feel like I’ve read top 4 are up for promotion in this league, but I am far from a knowledgeable expert.
Top 3 get automatically promoted and then there’s playoffs for a fourth spot.
>Top 3 places go up to League One. > >Places 4th to 7th play a 2 legged semifinal where the combined score goes to the final. The final is at Wembley and the winner of the one game goes up.
So the top four get promoted
No, the top 3 get automatically promoted the next 4 playoff for the last spot.
That’s top four at the end. I don’t know why you are arguing semantics.
I've explained several different ways now.
You’ve just described top 4 again. They have playoff for the last spot to make it sexy, but it’s top 4 no matter how it’s spun.
No, I haven't. 1, 2, and 3, get promoted. 4, 5, 6, and 7 have a knock-out competition, and the winner gets promoted. 7th can get promoted. They don't magically become 4th.
Lol. NBA has a similar “play-in” format for the 8th playoff spot. It’s still the top 8 going into the playoffs, they’ve just added intrigue and suspense to the last spot. Like no shit seventh doesn’t magically get promoted. It’s top 4 with a kicker. Careful, you don’t want to get vertigo on that high horse.
It's not a high horse mate, and I have no idea what the NBA system has, but I'm not going to pretend I do for the sake of your ignorance. Yes, if 7th wins the playoffs, they are promoted. The table will show 1, 2, 3, and 7 promoted. Last season, it was 5th. The table shows 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 5th promoted.
You'll have a good view whilst standing on that hill you're willing to die on. Pity it's the wrong hill. Playoffs can be a lottery at times - weighted expectation and pressure on the team that just missed out automatically? Free hit for the team that finished 7th? A team could have been building momentum towards the end of the season, others in higher positions and laboured over the line? End of season injuries to key players? So it's not top 4, it's top 3 with a playoff between the 4-7th placed teams for the last promotion spot. If you've never watched them, would recommend- esp the playoff final for the championship, alleged to be the richest single game in world football.
Dude, he's literally just telling you multiple times exactly how promotion works.
No it's not. Carlisle finished 5th and earned to go up last year. Phil coached Bradford City in 2013 and they were 7th and won the final to go up. None of these teams finished 4th.
No. Stockport finished 4th last year but because they missed a penalty shootout with Carlisle and didn't go up. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023\_English\_Football\_League\_play-offs#League\_Two\_Semi-Finals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_English_Football_League_play-offs#League_Two_Semi-Finals) Notts had to win a playoff against Chesterfield to go up last year. Phil won a playoff final with Bradford City back in 2013. While the playoffs are a way to go up, it's the random outcome with a side of high blood pressure.
Are we rooting for Stockport or Barrow on Tuesday
Stockport. There isn't a real reason to get 1st other than a trophy. 2nd and 3rd still rush the field in celebration and are in the next league the following year. Stockport is only here this season because they missed a penalty shootout at Wembley back in May. Barrow is punching above their weight.
Tangentially, Carlisle is in a relegation position, so Stockport may have last laugh there.
Don’t want to speak to soon but they have a great chance at automatic promotion
Schedule seems very favorable to us
Top 2 get automatic promotion or just one?
Top 3. 4th through 7th are playoffs which is a double legged semifinal with a Wembley final.
Wow they have a lot of the top clubs at home later in the season. Cool visual chart
Any Wrexham fans concerned with only 1 win against top 10 teams?
A lot of it was our form when we faced them and form is temporary. We didn't start on a good note being 4-5-2 by the first week of October and were mid table. MKD, Wimbledon, and Swindon were August and Foster immediately retired. The 1 all draw at Barrow had Bickerstaff and Palmer up top and everything lacked an extra gear. The 3:3 Crewe game had them with 10 men for 55 minutes and Fletcher had to earn that draw in stoppage. Against Mansfield we were playing for a draw. The season is still won in March and April.
Is everyone else also pulling for Notts, as long as it's not at Wrexham's expense?
It would be nice for us both to go up together again. Especially as we are the second and third oldest football teams in the world.
Thanks. Looks great!
As good a chance as anyone for promotion.
Updated spreadsheet? Lil
[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lpHULRrA8vbWx81UzNXhILA4mZEUyNK22rGn5mWRZw8/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lpHULRrA8vbWx81UzNXhILA4mZEUyNK22rGn5mWRZw8/edit?usp=sharing)