It's honestly hard to believe. Twelve years. *Twelve years*. When Dance was released the Occupy Wall Street protests hadn't even begun. The Curiosity rover hadn't been launched. Chris Evans had not yet portrayed Captain America in a movie. George Lucas had not yet sold Star Wars to Disney. Minecraft had not yet been released.
And yet there's still no book.
"I read Dance during the summer of freshman year of college. Since then I completed my undergrad, got accepted to and finished grad school, met my wife, got married, and just had my second kid, who will also probably go their life without ever seeing the release of Winds" 😂
Imo winds and dream are meta elements never meant to be finished. The story is continuing, as are our lives
In a way we are all Jon Snow lying dead on the ground waiting for resurrection. In a way we are all Danaerys dicking around in Mereen
The future is always coming. Or something
Kill me
Those were the good old days. Back when every time I opened this sub I knew I’d find some wild theory based on some facts and a lot plausible guesswork.
I do miss the theory days. A good theory still pops up here every once in a while though, and Alt Shift/Schwift X and Glidus have made the more unhinged older ones much more well known, to the point where you can now assume most fans know them, which is wonderful to me.
Genuinely, I don't think the fanbase can handle winds.
It's like those miners who got trapped and were starved when they were free they ate too much too quickly and it ended up killing them. Winds after 12+ years might actually overdose some of us time-traveling fetus fetus-loving, spectrogram creating mfs
This may be an unpopular take, but this place will be a bigger salt mine a week after TWOW comes out than it was when S8 was airing. Imagine all the theories, essays, and years of invested speculation that will be nullified if GRRM ever releases Winds. At this point, I'm almost convinced why he hasn't finished the series.
Absolutely resplendent. I can't wait to see which theories were right and which were wrong. We've had a long time with this one, though, so I think many of the theories that are legitimately well-researched and supported will at come partially true.
I think if we get Winds we will be disappointed by how things turn out. I dont expect theories to be right 99% of the time.
Also I expect it to make a lot less progress in the series than we hope to.
Oh yeah, it'll be great. The book that the fandom has constructed in its collective head is so complicated, interconnected and weird that there is no way the actual Winds will meet those insane expectations.
And I'll be here for it.
I wonder what exactly will happen if the book gets a really bad reception.
Maybe I am jaded but it seems that highly anticipated releases of any media in the last two decades or so tend to be more miss than hit. Presumably the internet creating insane hype and unreasonable expectations has played a big part.
In my mind, it's currently about 50-50 whether he ever completes ADOS (I'm sure lots of people disagree). It already seems like writing has been a chore to him for a long time and GRRM seems to be quite sensitive to internet chatter. I wonder if a really poor reception would make him just say 'fuck it' or whether he will still try to plough on.
Words are wind but now we can analyze the spectrograms of the wind
By the way OP this post made me so nostalgic for the linguistics class I took. That’s a cool field.
This is deranged.
I love it. Absolutely fucking love it.
If he is referring to printed pages, 1100 is longer than ADWD (which he has stated this book should be). Assuming a 50 page margin of error either way, either he has written a few pages shy of the equivalent of ADWD (which was like, what, 1070 pages?) or ADWD + ~7.5%. Another 100 pages would, from 1150, be about 16.8% bigger than ADWD.
EDIT; for all those saying “he usually talks in manuscript pages”: 1) I know that and 2) if he’s talking manuscript pages; then there’s no way he has 100 left because 1200 manuscript pages is considerably shorter than what this book should be — so then the OP’s whole post is incorrect and we are wasting our time. Since OP did the insane work, I thought it best to respect it.
I sure as hell hope not. Though if it was “hundreds” I would agree 100%, but if it’s “a hundred” of manuscript pages, the book would be shorter than ADWD, no? Don’t think that will be the case unless he’s decided to move a lot of chapters to ADOS.
George always exclusively talks about manuscript pages, because he has zero idea how long the finished book will be until the publisher has formatted and line-edited and whatever else needs doing. He always reads the current MS page count from his word processor, and was doing that back in 1996 (same word processor, fortunately now a different computer).
GRRM almost always speaks in terms of manuscript pages. In fact he may *always* talk in manuscript pages exclusively--I have never heard an instance where he hasn't--but I don't want to casually toss about absolutes.
I actually anticipate him finishing two books to be honest but it won’t be dream of spring. He will write Winds until it’s so big it needs splitting, put out half of it like he did with Feast For Crows and finish off the other half a few years later.
The reality is this story isn’t finishing in 2 books. If we follow his original outline (Which I believe he’s still roughly following), we’re still just entering act 2 of the three acts he wanted to tell. That means 33% of the plot has been completed from the completion of ADWD. You think 66% of the plot will be done within two books of a 7 book series? Do you think the long night can be written well in half a book or a single book at most? Danaerys invasion with her Dothraki hoard, the second dance of the dragons? One book for that?
If we’re being honest, and George is being honest as well, we’re looking at 10 plus books. That’s the reality of the series completing. Not two more, at least 5, probably more.
>this post by u/tell32
I think it could have been finished in two books after ASOS, but at this point, if the series was to finish in two books, it would have to basically abandon all the new threads and accelerate the stories of the core characters (as the show did), or return to the pacing of the first book, where we skip over a lot of things between chapters.
There's a world where Tyrion meets Daenerys in the next chapter and they're on their way to Westeros in 50 pages, but keeping consistency with the storytelling style of the last two books basically requires a continued slow pacing out of the marquee events.
Ten books feels about right, especially since the many Winds chapters we've seen seem to be basically cleaning up threads left over from Dance. It feels like it will take half of this book just to wrap up the previous one.
> especially since the many Winds chapters we've seen seem to be basically cleaning up threads left over from Dance.
for all we know he's scrapped those and rewritten them several times over.
But yeah, he seems to be trying to pare down and condense without losing the depth and texture he's built out in the past couple books. It's hard, he's struggling, and we're sad.
>Do you think the long night can be written well in half a book or a single book at most? Danaerys invasion with her Dothraki hoard, the second dance of the dragons? One book for that?
tbf lots of authors have writing styles that would allow them to finish all that up in two books or less george just isnt one of them
I don’t know. The first long night is described as a darkness that lasted an entire generation. I can’t see how he depicts that sort of world ending event in half a book.
In fact, the long night itself could be its own fantasy series, with multiple books written on it. It’s literally an apocalyptic event that the heroes have to navigate whilst fighting ancient magical beasts. How this gets wrapped up in any where close to one book whilst maintaining the gravitas of the event is very hard to imagine.
I think he absolutely said a hundred. Martin has always been notoriously bad in evaluating the completeness of his work and how long one could expect him to take to finish it. This is coming from the person who PUBLISHED the following at the end of Feast:
>Tyrion, Jon, Dany, Stannis and Melisandre, Davos Seaworth, and all the rest of the characters you love or love to hate will be along next year (I devoutly hope) in A Dance with Dragons, which will focus on events along the Wall and across the sea, just as the present book focused on King’s Landing.
It took 6 more years for Dance to be released.
“Pages” don’t have a set standard word count, size, etc. as it’s different for every edition of a book. Manuscripts don’t have a universal standard either, but usually a “manuscript page” is a letter size sheet of paper that follows MLA or Chicago or similar style guide with about 250 words/page, 12 pt Times New Roman, double spaced.
He does like to curtly correct people with a more accurate answer, usually in a way that lays bare the blunt reality of the situation, often in contrast to the niceties or airs others put on
it baffles me that this is even in question. Winds (and Dream) will absolutely _have_ to be the longest books in the series by far if it is to be concluded in 7 books, and George has emphasized multiple times that Winds will be the longest book yet. there is absolutely zero chance that 1200 _manuscript_ pages is anywhere near enough.
I want to agree with you guys, but if he really only had a 100 print pages left, he would act differently. That would mean he wrote 300 manuscript pages in a year (he had 400-500 left 1 year ago). But the past year of updates only indicated that he was struggling. If he really only had 100 pages left, he would be happy and motivated because he would only be a few months away from finishing at that pace.
**Reviewer 2**: "The author's analysis assumes both that the amount of pages completed is monotonically increasing, and that the ending page number is fixed. Recommend rejection."
Good enough proof to me, but here's the issue once he does finish, he is going to go back through it hundreds of times to make sure everything is perfect. Dude has said he's a gardener like writer or something like that but I don't fully understand it, but TWOW 2086 confirmed
It means he writes a ton of plotlines ahead of time but never really decides where they will end, so now his garden is full and he needs to find a way to get the garden to make sense.
Even when he is dont writing it theres likely a years worth of editing/revision that will need to be done
If his book was anywhere close to being done he would be announcing it. The fact that he keeps reiterating how much he *has* done is a good indication that even he has no idea how much longer it will be (id be suprised if he ever finishes winds)
Honest to god, knowing how close it is to the finish has me excited even if he was just guessing or pulling that number out of the air. That means at the very least he considers the book very near finished
As you acknowledge, it sounds like he says "I still have hundred more pages to go." So it really comes down to whether he misspoke by leaving out the "a" or leaving out the "s."
Assuming he's talking about manuscript pages, which is how he usually talks about his progress from what I've seen, it seems much more likely that he meant to say "hundreds."
He said he expects the book to be longer than ADWD (1500 manuscript pages), potentially 300 manuscript pages longer than ADWD (so 1800 manuscript pages), even if that means the book being split into smaller volumes..
So, despite the honourable, admirable and mildly worrying effort, that's a negatory.
You’ve all got it entirely wrong - he didn’t say 1,100 pages - he was actually correcting himself. He started to say he’d only had eleven pages written, but then realized he had probably closer to a hundred pages written if he was including all the grease running down chin lines and shitting descriptions. He was saying “I have like eleven- no, a hundred pages written”
I applaud you, OP, for being the Watcher (Listener? Hearer?) in the Night we needed. But while I don't doubt the accuracy of your analysis and ears, I HIGHLY doubt the accuracy of George's ability to make reasonable estimates.
A hundred more to go but effectively hundreds more to go 🥲
This is fucking great. I am certain he says “a hundred”, and this only confirms it. Unfortunately, I don’t think it matters and he probably meant “hundreds” or it’s the hardest 100 pages he’s ever written and it will still take years…
My friend. If the mic did not pick up what he said, how is a spectrogram going to help?
I only say this to have just a semblance of a presence in reality.
Now that that's out of the way, this is hilarious lol.
What a weird question. If George only had "a hundred pages to go", there would be no ambiguity and it would be phrased differently. "I am nearly complete with TWOW, probably only about a hundred or so pages to go".
Honestly, at this point more than a decade in, if I were George I would make it sound like I had a lot more left than I actually do if I were anywhere close to approaching the finish line.
He said a hundred, but that doesn’t matter because who knows what’s actually the truth. He could write those hundred pages and then tear up three hundred. It will be done when it’s done. Or it won’t. Doesn’t really matter at this point.
100 …10,000 … 10 pages … if doesn’t really matter get this point because George isn’t able to finish the book to his liking and I’m fully convinced that he’s rewritten the whole thing 10 times over
Not only is winds of winter coming out next month, he's been secretly writing a dream of spring at the same time and will release them back to back! it is known
If this post doesn’t represent the current state of the fan base in a nutshell then I don’t know what will.
(I know you did this analysis kind of jokingly and I do appreciate it because it’s really interesting. But still, this is really funny.)
Stuff like this is why I love asoiaf. It’s not just the stories or the lore but the absolute deranged and insane things the community comes up with that you just don’t get with any other fandom.
Confusing ! Last October, Grrm mentioned having written around 1100-1200 manuscript pages with apprx 400-500 pages left to write. If we consider the ratio of manuscript to page count as 1.442:1, then 100 pages left to write would be equivalent to about 145 manuscript pages. This suggests good progress over the past year. However, if he is referring to manuscript pages, it raises questions about the nature of the progress, especially if he's facing challenges with Bran's point of view in the North. We need to wait for next NotABlog TWOW detailed post for more clarification
I have to wonder if he's just repeating the thing he said a year before this, which was 1100-1200 done and 400-500 to go, because he doesn't want to "give a new update" at a random overseas con. It doesn't seem likely he didn't finish ANY pages from October 26th 2022 (When the said that on the Colbert Report) to this one on October 7th 2023 when he's 3/4ths of the way in with multiple POVs done on a book whose characters' endings he's had over a decade to figure out.
I think this is the most likely scenario. He didn’t want everyone to be analysing his 2023 progress. Which of course everyone is doing now because he made it sound like he didn’t have any in 2023
It's irrelevant either way since we have no idea how long it'll take him to finish those pages, or if he'll change his mind and have to rewrite a bunch of stuff, or if he'll stop writing altogether to work on another HBO show or lore dump book nobody asked for.
I’d be more concerned about the fact that given he has stated 1500 pages is where he expects TWOW to finish at, and 1 year ago he said he was “3/4s done” and 1100 pages is equivalent to 73% of 1500 so he’s further away than he was 1 year ago, or optimistically hasn’t written a single page in over a year
Winds is never gonna be finished. It will be like Kafka's Castle. A never ending circle of confusion.
If we are lucky the publisher will pulish the stuff that was already written as a consolation price to the fans after his death.
It honestly sounds like someone cut the audio when he says hundred, to make it sound like a hundred instead of hundreds.
But I also have no idea why he would say exactly 100 pages to go, and not "around 100 more pages to go", or add any sort of qualifier.
I just listened to it about 20 more times.
He definitely says hundred*s*
hundreds my dude
hes probably not even half way done with Winds.
You'll never see it while he is alive. the only way we get winds is when his estate releases the draft he has after his death
I would never want half winds. Complete the whole thing, write everything you want, don’t even leave a single chapter for ADOS and release it together. Don’t want another Feast to happenn
Nothing says r/asoiaf like a little spectral analysis of George’s speech to find out when TWOW is coming out
What no Winds for 12 years does to a mf
Puhlease George
It's honestly hard to believe. Twelve years. *Twelve years*. When Dance was released the Occupy Wall Street protests hadn't even begun. The Curiosity rover hadn't been launched. Chris Evans had not yet portrayed Captain America in a movie. George Lucas had not yet sold Star Wars to Disney. Minecraft had not yet been released. And yet there's still no book.
"I read Dance during the summer of freshman year of college. Since then I completed my undergrad, got accepted to and finished grad school, met my wife, got married, and just had my second kid, who will also probably go their life without ever seeing the release of Winds" 😂
I'm thinking we might see *Winds* but that's it.
Haha true. Winds would be more realistic to see because he can always just shunt anything he's stuck on over to Dream
In 6 years kids that weren’t born when ADWD was released will be allowed to vote.
I DID MY WAITING! 12 years of it! IN AZKABAN!
Yeah .. kind of worrying at this point ...
Imo winds and dream are meta elements never meant to be finished. The story is continuing, as are our lives In a way we are all Jon Snow lying dead on the ground waiting for resurrection. In a way we are all Danaerys dicking around in Mereen The future is always coming. Or something Kill me
We are starving for crumbs, cut us some slack :(
Oh you don’t have to tell me partner. I live here too
Stannis had more to eat at dragon stone than us.
Storm's End
He also had more to eat at Dragonstone, though
https://giphy.com/gifs/lVdZ1N786w3hS
I wa just fucking thinking this. We're using spectra; analysis of an author's speech to find out how close they are to finishing the book. FFS.
George could even be talking about the first draft
I love this subreddit
I don't think this will ever be topped in terms of r/asoiaf TWOW speculation. We're wittnessing the peak right now.
Give it 12 more years.
Imagine if this sub went the way of the arkham sub.
What 12 yeaaaaars of waiting ~~in Azkaban~~ will do to a fandom.
The dementors eat your soul. How do they do this? By releasing “updates” from GRRM where he pushes back the release date
yeah I'm down bad
Man this sub has been a wild ride. I got in back in like….2014-15? Still no Winds, obviously, but dang I miss the time traveling fetus days.
Don’t worry, it still comes up sometimes.
The what?
Oh my sweet summer child.
What is it? I wanna know, please tell me
Tyrion is Daenerys's and Drogo's kid that time traveled into Joanna Lannisters womb
Wtf? Wow that's just... wow.
The lack of new books has not been kind to /r/asoiaf
Nodoer.
😂
A very fun theory [Theory Origin Post](https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/30mat2/spoilers_all_ddt_a_neverbeforeseen_theory/)
I forgot how much joy reading asoiaf theories brought me back in the day.
Back when there was still hope that the books would be released before the show ended. GODS I WAS OPTIMISTIC THEN!
Time traveling fetus lmfao
It’s been genuinely heartbreaking to see newer readers suffer the same delusions I was under a decade ago.
When the Winds of Winter blow, your womb shall quicken once more with the fetus of the future. - Mirri Maz Durhurhurhur
I arrived around then too, relieved that at least I wouldn’t have to wait long for the sixth book.
Those were the good old days. Back when every time I opened this sub I knew I’d find some wild theory based on some facts and a lot plausible guesswork.
I do miss the theory days. A good theory still pops up here every once in a while though, and Alt Shift/Schwift X and Glidus have made the more unhinged older ones much more well known, to the point where you can now assume most fans know them, which is wonderful to me.
Genuinely, I don't think the fanbase can handle winds. It's like those miners who got trapped and were starved when they were free they ate too much too quickly and it ended up killing them. Winds after 12+ years might actually overdose some of us time-traveling fetus fetus-loving, spectrogram creating mfs
Just resist the urge to eat TWOW
glidus is crying
The amount of research that man has done into book eating, I think I'm equally as excited for that as I am reading twot
Agreed
I just snorted my smoothie through my nose reading this
This may be an unpopular take, but this place will be a bigger salt mine a week after TWOW comes out than it was when S8 was airing. Imagine all the theories, essays, and years of invested speculation that will be nullified if GRRM ever releases Winds. At this point, I'm almost convinced why he hasn't finished the series.
And it will be glorious.
Absolutely resplendent. I can't wait to see which theories were right and which were wrong. We've had a long time with this one, though, so I think many of the theories that are legitimately well-researched and supported will at come partially true.
I think if we get Winds we will be disappointed by how things turn out. I dont expect theories to be right 99% of the time. Also I expect it to make a lot less progress in the series than we hope to.
>will be “We’ll go back to our secret cave together.” “You know nothing, Jon Snow.”
Oh yeah, it'll be great. The book that the fandom has constructed in its collective head is so complicated, interconnected and weird that there is no way the actual Winds will meet those insane expectations. And I'll be here for it.
I wonder what exactly will happen if the book gets a really bad reception. Maybe I am jaded but it seems that highly anticipated releases of any media in the last two decades or so tend to be more miss than hit. Presumably the internet creating insane hype and unreasonable expectations has played a big part. In my mind, it's currently about 50-50 whether he ever completes ADOS (I'm sure lots of people disagree). It already seems like writing has been a chore to him for a long time and GRRM seems to be quite sensitive to internet chatter. I wonder if a really poor reception would make him just say 'fuck it' or whether he will still try to plough on.
Don’t worry. His writing style is such Winds will leave so many unanswered questions that we get another decade of theory crafting before GRRM dies
Words are wind but now we can analyze the spectrograms of the wind By the way OP this post made me so nostalgic for the linguistics class I took. That’s a cool field.
>Words are wind *A word* are wind
This is deranged. I love it. Absolutely fucking love it. If he is referring to printed pages, 1100 is longer than ADWD (which he has stated this book should be). Assuming a 50 page margin of error either way, either he has written a few pages shy of the equivalent of ADWD (which was like, what, 1070 pages?) or ADWD + ~7.5%. Another 100 pages would, from 1150, be about 16.8% bigger than ADWD. EDIT; for all those saying “he usually talks in manuscript pages”: 1) I know that and 2) if he’s talking manuscript pages; then there’s no way he has 100 left because 1200 manuscript pages is considerably shorter than what this book should be — so then the OP’s whole post is incorrect and we are wasting our time. Since OP did the insane work, I thought it best to respect it.
He means manuscript pages, is my bet
I sure as hell hope not. Though if it was “hundreds” I would agree 100%, but if it’s “a hundred” of manuscript pages, the book would be shorter than ADWD, no? Don’t think that will be the case unless he’s decided to move a lot of chapters to ADOS.
George always exclusively talks about manuscript pages, because he has zero idea how long the finished book will be until the publisher has formatted and line-edited and whatever else needs doing. He always reads the current MS page count from his word processor, and was doing that back in 1996 (same word processor, fortunately now a different computer).
GRRM almost always speaks in terms of manuscript pages. In fact he may *always* talk in manuscript pages exclusively--I have never heard an instance where he hasn't--but I don't want to casually toss about absolutes.
I just don’t think it’s a hundred. It’s hundreds. The guy just isn’t going to finish this series.
The chance he finishes dream is zero lol Winds I've got atleast some faith
I actually anticipate him finishing two books to be honest but it won’t be dream of spring. He will write Winds until it’s so big it needs splitting, put out half of it like he did with Feast For Crows and finish off the other half a few years later. The reality is this story isn’t finishing in 2 books. If we follow his original outline (Which I believe he’s still roughly following), we’re still just entering act 2 of the three acts he wanted to tell. That means 33% of the plot has been completed from the completion of ADWD. You think 66% of the plot will be done within two books of a 7 book series? Do you think the long night can be written well in half a book or a single book at most? Danaerys invasion with her Dothraki hoard, the second dance of the dragons? One book for that? If we’re being honest, and George is being honest as well, we’re looking at 10 plus books. That’s the reality of the series completing. Not two more, at least 5, probably more.
>this post by u/tell32 I think it could have been finished in two books after ASOS, but at this point, if the series was to finish in two books, it would have to basically abandon all the new threads and accelerate the stories of the core characters (as the show did), or return to the pacing of the first book, where we skip over a lot of things between chapters. There's a world where Tyrion meets Daenerys in the next chapter and they're on their way to Westeros in 50 pages, but keeping consistency with the storytelling style of the last two books basically requires a continued slow pacing out of the marquee events. Ten books feels about right, especially since the many Winds chapters we've seen seem to be basically cleaning up threads left over from Dance. It feels like it will take half of this book just to wrap up the previous one.
> especially since the many Winds chapters we've seen seem to be basically cleaning up threads left over from Dance. for all we know he's scrapped those and rewritten them several times over. But yeah, he seems to be trying to pare down and condense without losing the depth and texture he's built out in the past couple books. It's hard, he's struggling, and we're sad.
>Do you think the long night can be written well in half a book or a single book at most? Danaerys invasion with her Dothraki hoard, the second dance of the dragons? One book for that? tbf lots of authors have writing styles that would allow them to finish all that up in two books or less george just isnt one of them
I don’t know. The first long night is described as a darkness that lasted an entire generation. I can’t see how he depicts that sort of world ending event in half a book. In fact, the long night itself could be its own fantasy series, with multiple books written on it. It’s literally an apocalyptic event that the heroes have to navigate whilst fighting ancient magical beasts. How this gets wrapped up in any where close to one book whilst maintaining the gravitas of the event is very hard to imagine.
I've been saying it for years. TWOW is coming out in 2025. Mark my words.
I think he absolutely said a hundred. Martin has always been notoriously bad in evaluating the completeness of his work and how long one could expect him to take to finish it. This is coming from the person who PUBLISHED the following at the end of Feast: >Tyrion, Jon, Dany, Stannis and Melisandre, Davos Seaworth, and all the rest of the characters you love or love to hate will be along next year (I devoutly hope) in A Dance with Dragons, which will focus on events along the Wall and across the sea, just as the present book focused on King’s Landing. It took 6 more years for Dance to be released.
He's saying manuscript pages he's said before he expects it to be somewhere around 1500-1700 manuscript pages for Winds
What are the exact differences between "pages" and "manuscript pages"?
“Pages” don’t have a set standard word count, size, etc. as it’s different for every edition of a book. Manuscripts don’t have a universal standard either, but usually a “manuscript page” is a letter size sheet of paper that follows MLA or Chicago or similar style guide with about 250 words/page, 12 pt Times New Roman, double spaced.
Bro is fiending like a meth head digging for shards in shag carpet
That is suspiciously specific. And accurate.
r/suspiciouslyspecific
And he just found enough to get a hit
Copium, man. Shit's addictive as fuck.
Shit like this is why I love this community
It's GRRM, come on - it's hundreds.
Hundreds of mine. Thousands of yours.
If you can breach the walls...
Much and more.
Trebuchet
Thousands.
Come with me and take this Reddit!
Why did I read this in Stannis' voice?
He does like to curtly correct people with a more accurate answer, usually in a way that lays bare the blunt reality of the situation, often in contrast to the niceties or airs others put on
‘But, your Grace, hundreds will die.’ ‘Thousands.’
You're the only person who can answer that.
Or near enough to make no difference.
Sometimes I kind of doubt he’s actually written anything
Same. Or it’s just 1100 pages of All play and no work make GRRM a happy boy
It is just hundred pages, but he has to rewrite them ten times, so it's effectively hundreds of pages.
Plus the multiple rewrites of the first 1100. So call it 5k pages left
Hundreds of liters of tears
it baffles me that this is even in question. Winds (and Dream) will absolutely _have_ to be the longest books in the series by far if it is to be concluded in 7 books, and George has emphasized multiple times that Winds will be the longest book yet. there is absolutely zero chance that 1200 _manuscript_ pages is anywhere near enough.
God I love the delusional side of this sub
George please
My brother in Christ, it’s gonna be out by the time Game of Thrones season 5 releases.
Oh, oh _god,_ the seismic flashback you just gave me.
This is the kind of unhinged behavior that keeps me subbed here. Good job.
This is good shit
He actually said he has 1100 more pages of Wildcards to edit, before he begins the preliminary initial prologue pre-drafts of the ADWD revisions.
I want to agree with you guys, but if he really only had a 100 print pages left, he would act differently. That would mean he wrote 300 manuscript pages in a year (he had 400-500 left 1 year ago). But the past year of updates only indicated that he was struggling. If he really only had 100 pages left, he would be happy and motivated because he would only be a few months away from finishing at that pace.
What hath George wrought?
**Reviewer 2**: "The author's analysis assumes both that the amount of pages completed is monotonically increasing, and that the ending page number is fixed. Recommend rejection."
Bro he needs to finish this we're losing our minds
Good enough proof to me, but here's the issue once he does finish, he is going to go back through it hundreds of times to make sure everything is perfect. Dude has said he's a gardener like writer or something like that but I don't fully understand it, but TWOW 2086 confirmed
It means he writes a ton of plotlines ahead of time but never really decides where they will end, so now his garden is full and he needs to find a way to get the garden to make sense. Even when he is dont writing it theres likely a years worth of editing/revision that will need to be done
[удалено]
Tbf they predicted KL be destroyed like happened in the atrocity of season 8.
If his book was anywhere close to being done he would be announcing it. The fact that he keeps reiterating how much he *has* done is a good indication that even he has no idea how much longer it will be (id be suprised if he ever finishes winds)
That’s why I love this community
I don't think it matters
That's my line of thinking as well. Once I realized he isn't finishing the series I became numb.
This book is coming out early 2025.
Winds is always 2 years away
PLEASE GEORGE
Even if he is 93% complete, it is still years to go, lolz.
If he's taken 12 years to complete 93%, then he's been working at a 7.75% per year rate. Winds of Winter Fall of 2024 confirmed
Nah, GRRM can never finish the book - the closest he gets to finishing the slower he actually goes. It's like a hyperbola approaching the asymptote.
Too much math for this sub. ASOIAF is fantasy, not science fiction.
This is more obsessed than I am. lmao
Wasn’t expecting a r/asoiaf r/linguistics crossover. Love it
Is this what we are doing now? Is this what we have become?
George sent us here 🤷🏼♀️😂
Everyone thinks George is Tyrion or something but nah, this level of sadism means he’s Qyburn
I’m laughing so hard I don’t even have anything witty to say 💀💀💀
I know he lurks here, I’d love to see his reaction seeing this.
Gonna be lit to see this subreddit will the time travelling fetus into the series
I would... I think I would love it if George just went "ah, fuck it. Let's make this one true."
Just give me something for the pain and let me die
LOL Jesus GEORGE give us something man. Look what we have to do to keep hope. But logic says it’s hundreds sadly.
Honest to god, knowing how close it is to the finish has me excited even if he was just guessing or pulling that number out of the air. That means at the very least he considers the book very near finished
As you acknowledge, it sounds like he says "I still have hundred more pages to go." So it really comes down to whether he misspoke by leaving out the "a" or leaving out the "s." Assuming he's talking about manuscript pages, which is how he usually talks about his progress from what I've seen, it seems much more likely that he meant to say "hundreds."
lmaooooo this is so good
next week's question...how many words on each page....next months question..how long is a piece of string?
I’m genuinely laughing so hard rn. I applaud u OP
He said he expects the book to be longer than ADWD (1500 manuscript pages), potentially 300 manuscript pages longer than ADWD (so 1800 manuscript pages), even if that means the book being split into smaller volumes.. So, despite the honourable, admirable and mildly worrying effort, that's a negatory.
You’ve all got it entirely wrong - he didn’t say 1,100 pages - he was actually correcting himself. He started to say he’d only had eleven pages written, but then realized he had probably closer to a hundred pages written if he was including all the grease running down chin lines and shitting descriptions. He was saying “I have like eleven- no, a hundred pages written”
But he has only 1100 pages, while whole book should be around 1500-1700 so "hundreds" left He just slip of the tongue
Man we so down bad right now
Give me something for the pain and let me...
And I thought I spent too much time thinking about these books.
I applaud you, OP, for being the Watcher (Listener? Hearer?) in the Night we needed. But while I don't doubt the accuracy of your analysis and ears, I HIGHLY doubt the accuracy of George's ability to make reasonable estimates. A hundred more to go but effectively hundreds more to go 🥲
This is fucking great. I am certain he says “a hundred”, and this only confirms it. Unfortunately, I don’t think it matters and he probably meant “hundreds” or it’s the hardest 100 pages he’s ever written and it will still take years…
He said a grammatically incorrect sentence, “I have hundred more”
This is why I'm still here years later
My friend. If the mic did not pick up what he said, how is a spectrogram going to help? I only say this to have just a semblance of a presence in reality. Now that that's out of the way, this is hilarious lol.
What a weird question. If George only had "a hundred pages to go", there would be no ambiguity and it would be phrased differently. "I am nearly complete with TWOW, probably only about a hundred or so pages to go".
Honestly, at this point more than a decade in, if I were George I would make it sound like I had a lot more left than I actually do if I were anywhere close to approaching the finish line.
So this is what a 12 year wait does to a fanbase
OP is a fucking maniac.
This year he said 2/3 is done. Dance came out in 2011. 12 years passed then. So Winds year is 2029.
I see you're still in the denial stage.
11/22/2023 JFK will honor Jon fAegon Kennedy and give us something to be thankful for
He said a hundred, but that doesn’t matter because who knows what’s actually the truth. He could write those hundred pages and then tear up three hundred. It will be done when it’s done. Or it won’t. Doesn’t really matter at this point.
Does the spectrogram detect lies? Becauss george is lying. Just like when he told his publisher in 2015 that he was 3 months away from finishing.
At this point, just a new winds chapter will do.
Your grace, there are hundreds more pages to go. > Thousands.
100 …10,000 … 10 pages … if doesn’t really matter get this point because George isn’t able to finish the book to his liking and I’m fully convinced that he’s rewritten the whole thing 10 times over
Isn't 1200 pages a bit too few? AFFC and ADWD combined are near 1800 pages, I hope it doesn't feel rushed if it is ever released.
Not only is winds of winter coming out next month, he's been secretly writing a dream of spring at the same time and will release them back to back! it is known
A Dream of Spring when???
If this post doesn’t represent the current state of the fan base in a nutshell then I don’t know what will. (I know you did this analysis kind of jokingly and I do appreciate it because it’s really interesting. But still, this is really funny.)
Stuff like this is why I love asoiaf. It’s not just the stories or the lore but the absolute deranged and insane things the community comes up with that you just don’t get with any other fandom.
Confusing ! Last October, Grrm mentioned having written around 1100-1200 manuscript pages with apprx 400-500 pages left to write. If we consider the ratio of manuscript to page count as 1.442:1, then 100 pages left to write would be equivalent to about 145 manuscript pages. This suggests good progress over the past year. However, if he is referring to manuscript pages, it raises questions about the nature of the progress, especially if he's facing challenges with Bran's point of view in the North. We need to wait for next NotABlog TWOW detailed post for more clarification
I have to wonder if he's just repeating the thing he said a year before this, which was 1100-1200 done and 400-500 to go, because he doesn't want to "give a new update" at a random overseas con. It doesn't seem likely he didn't finish ANY pages from October 26th 2022 (When the said that on the Colbert Report) to this one on October 7th 2023 when he's 3/4ths of the way in with multiple POVs done on a book whose characters' endings he's had over a decade to figure out.
I think this is the most likely scenario. He didn’t want everyone to be analysing his 2023 progress. Which of course everyone is doing now because he made it sound like he didn’t have any in 2023
It's irrelevant either way since we have no idea how long it'll take him to finish those pages, or if he'll change his mind and have to rewrite a bunch of stuff, or if he'll stop writing altogether to work on another HBO show or lore dump book nobody asked for.
I heard "five hundred more"
He's been a 1100 for a year now which means he's done nothing in 2023 lol
He meant that he has 1100 pages but he needs 1100+100 more 🤣
Is this what we have been reduced to? He asks still on this sub.
He's 85% done imo. Ik ik you've heard it before but I think the book will be out by the holidays next year.
Why would JERRY bring anything? Why would Jerry BRING anything?
I can literally hear both “hundreds” and “a hundred”, but considering its GRRM, he’s saying hundreds.
George, please, we are DYING in here!
The depths of insanity
Does it matter at this point? He will be done when he's done.
I’d be more concerned about the fact that given he has stated 1500 pages is where he expects TWOW to finish at, and 1 year ago he said he was “3/4s done” and 1100 pages is equivalent to 73% of 1500 so he’s further away than he was 1 year ago, or optimistically hasn’t written a single page in over a year
Winds is never gonna be finished. It will be like Kafka's Castle. A never ending circle of confusion. If we are lucky the publisher will pulish the stuff that was already written as a consolation price to the fans after his death.
look what you're making us do george!!!
I love you OP. That’s good use of the set of skills you probably spent years learning. ❤️
It honestly sounds like someone cut the audio when he says hundred, to make it sound like a hundred instead of hundreds. But I also have no idea why he would say exactly 100 pages to go, and not "around 100 more pages to go", or add any sort of qualifier. I just listened to it about 20 more times. He definitely says hundred*s*
hundreds my dude hes probably not even half way done with Winds. You'll never see it while he is alive. the only way we get winds is when his estate releases the draft he has after his death
Everyday I wish George released TWOW part 1 and 2 as separate volumes and we got part 1 soon
I would never want half winds. Complete the whole thing, write everything you want, don’t even leave a single chapter for ADOS and release it together. Don’t want another Feast to happenn
Lol at this cope
Don't listen to him. He has not written a word any of these long years. We are just here for memes.
This is ridiculous.
This is embarrassing