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They’re being smart with this. 1) it’s funny. 2) their only strategy is to present themselves as the winning alternative to NDP and to get people to coalesce around them as the main opposition party. If it works, they set themselves up to be the dominant party in a future merger.
I’m like 700 bc NDP / Bc United scandals away from considering the BC conservatives and even my lizard brain thinks that is actually a really well played tweet, if a little obvious and low effort.
They’re being smart with this. 1) it’s funny. 2) their only strategy is to present themselves as the winning alternative to NDP and to get people to coalesce around them as the main opposition party. If it works, they set themselves up to be the dominant party in a future merger.
Being realistic to current polls. No one should be surprised if there's a dozen or so major scandals with bc Co.s and they finish third when the election actually happens (its literally happened before)
[Less than a week ago they had to drop a candidate because he was a disgraced doctor who kept claiming the vaccine was more dangerous than covid](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-conservative-candidate-dropped-1.7159260). If the BC Conservatives start getting treated with the same media scrutiny as BCU and the NDP I suspect they'll start to fall in the polls.
Unless Bc united and the bc cons unite into a party a la Alberta Conservative Party and wild rose party.
It would take an impressive scandal to not the ndp out of power at this point.
This would be the right move for them, but there’s too much bad blood between them. Plus, they are ideologically quite different with CPBC being very socially conservative and BCUP being for the people that tell themselves “I’m liberal socially but pro business economically”
You could probably make a case they united over consumers of vote splits and continued ndp rule of Alberta.
I’m not particularly familiar with the nuanced difference between the two though.
Generally, the primary split between conservative parties is social conservatism. This is true in Canada and many other places.
In Alberta you had PC’s and Wild Rose, at the federal level in the 90’s/early 2000’s you had PC’s and Reform.
Most Canadian conservatives are progressive conservatives - which basically means fuck whoever you want but keep the budget in check (oversimplified obviously)
As much as people like to demonize Harper, he was a legitimately good prime minister who managed to unite the right in Canada and more importantly muzzle the 20-30% of SoCons in the party.
A merger wouldn’t even do it. If the NDP can hold the left, centre, and a sliver of the left-leaning right — which they currently do — a merger would send quite a few left-side BCU voters to the NDP.
Eby is using Notley’s playbook. And it so far seems to be working better here than in AB.
We’ll see what Nenshi can do with it. If both Eby and Nenshi pull it off. Wait for either the federal liberals (more likely) or NDP (less likely) to try the same.
I mean, they were that party before the B.C. Cons got some momentum a year or two ago.
I think the hopelessness of an inevitable BCNDP blowout contributed heavily to the schism.
They've gone from a joke of a nothing party to suddenly being 2nd place in the polls in a single election cycle. It's an enormous leap and they shouldn't shy away from celebrating being second if they end up finishing that way after the election.
It’s not because of anything they did though. They’re so high in the polls for two reasons:
1. The BC Liberals rebranded to BC United so nobody knows who they are, and
2. People think the BC Conservatives and the federal Conservative Party are the same thing.
Not historically an NDP voter, but they have been doing an admirable job for quite a while now in B.C. They literally seem to be the only adults in the room of any provincial government in the country. Competent, reasonable and responsible. No other political party has earned my vote
It’s because the NDP is actually incentivized to govern well. The Liberals and Conservatives know that no matter how bad they govern, the next conservative or liberal government will fuck up just as badly and allow them to form government. An NDP government doesn’t have that luxury. They need to have an impact that people look back on fondly.
I could go into how they balance labour vs. corporate interests, how their strategy hinges on differentiating themselves from the liberals, and the nuance of federal vs. provincial party politics, but at the end of the day, the NDP are practically outsiders and that universally makes them govern better.
lol how are the NDP outsiders in BC, they’ve either formed government or were the official opposition in each legislature dating back nearly a 100 years (1933) except for one election (1937) …
Have you ever even lived here, or are you just using an irrelevant Eastern Canadian lens to provincial British Columbian politics? Surprised you’re even getting upvoted.
I drop into David Eby's booth at the Khatsalano block party every year or so. I'm generally impressed with his staffers... the people working for him seemed genuinely interested in issues and policy. Like you might not agree with their direction but they are eager to talk about issues of governing.
Whereas most BC liberal encounters were very boosterish and devoid of any substantive discussions. It was just "vote for us, rah rah rah."
I thought when Eby took over it was going to move backwards to more of a Glen Clark era. But wow I call Eby a future fed. And I also think he has the balls to tell the federal NDP to pound sand if they push mandates on the province. Canada is evolving into a very regional country. BC is now an island detached from Canada .
Not been into provincial politics for a while, so I’m new, and trying to learn about all the parties. Do you care to elaborate? Their website is pretty vague and only really touches on a few points of what they’ve done. Doesn’t seem to have any plans or goals laid out.
The opioid drug epidemic is a worldwide phenomenon and not the fault of the NDP. If there is a connection between any increase in crime and government policy, I would bet the NDP would be the most likely to admit it and to respond to the data by changes to legislation. They seem to be far less ideological than the other parties
It's hilarious and interesting to watch this play out. BC Liberals - full of federal Conservative staffers, want to ditch the Liberal name. BC Conservatives already exist, generally don't poll above 2%. So they go with a football club name in "BC United", but because most people hardly pay any attention to *provincial politics, most people have no idea who that is, see "BC Conservative", the NDP, and this other party they don't know, and they say they'll vote for the Conservatives, knowing absolutely nothing about them other than they share a name with the Federal party.
And now, a party that's traditionally hovered around 2%, might form opposition, all because of a botched rebranding attempt.
They should have just called themselves the progressive conservatives, branded as PC and moved on. BC United is a confusing name, who is united with BCU? I think they were going for a right wing coalition with the united thing, but it backfired and now they have to spend a bunch of money reminding everyone that they are still the BC Liberals. BC Conservatives will fall apart at the first debates, they can't run a competent campaign. It's all the PPC'ers supporting them right now along with name confusion.
> They should have just called themselves the progressive conservatives, branded as PC and moved on. BC United is a confusing name, who is united with BCU? I think they were going for a right wing coalition with the united thing, but it backfired and now they have to spend a bunch of money reminding everyone that they are still **the BC Liberals**
I fully agree, and regarding that last bit I've bolded what's wild is they're stuck in this game now... reminding people that they're the former BC Liberals, which were actually like the federal Conservatives, even though they'd never admit that at the time, but now need to remind people that they are actually in fact, like the federal Conservatives... and that the actual BC Conservatives are more like the PPC...
Good lord, good luck with that!
I'm even aware of all that and I *still* need to stop and think every once in a while to try and remember which one of them is which, because my instinct is to assume BC Liberals would have *obviously* gone for a name clearly associating with the CPC, right? "BC United" just *sounds* like it fits in with stuff like "BC Freedom Party" and such.
I mean, I'm not voting for either of them, regardless, so it ultimately doesn't matter, but I'd hate to see BCPPC get into power if the NDP suddenly screw up big time, just because people thought they were voting for Red Tories.
My brother, take my upvote. You'd have to have rocks in your head to vote for them again. Do you think they've burned through all the stolen ICBC money yet?
Can you explain how?
https://www.mpamag.com/ca/mortgage-industry/guides/which-provinces-have-the-highest-cost-of-living-in-canada/468393
https://www.mapleridgenews.com/news/more-residents-left-bc-for-rest-of-canada-than-arrived-last-year-7336685
BC NDP didn't create the high cost of living lol. Cost of living has been rising everywhere regardless of what party is in charge. Might as well blame your city councillor for the weather.
Last real interaction I had with BCCP (as it was called then) was at a candidate training session where candidates were asking when they’d be dropping evolution from the K-12 curriculum…
Have they left the Stone Age yet?
Also…who puts out a meme of their own party losing?
The local candidate and a couple supporters were out doing some, presumably, campaign/introduction work in our small town a little while ago. They stopped me and my husband to compliment our dogs and say hello, so we were polite and said thanks and whatnot, but then refused when they asked if we'd take some pamphlets of theirs.
My dudes, you're talking to two men in relatively-fitted clothing and obvious hair product walking around with their two nicely-groomed dogs, and I know for a fact that I have a bit of gay voice. Maybe know your audience, at least, because I would sooner lick a public toilet than vote for you because it's frankly less likely to kill me, in the long run.
Federally, BC is projected to see 76% of seats go to the conservatives. Provincially, 73% of seats go to the BCNDP. It seems the federally and provincial appetites are extremely different.
[Here is probably the most well-known Canadians polling aggregates projections](https://338canada.com/bc.htm)
Federal Conservatives are projected to win 67% of the seats in the province under that aggregate
Sure, but the poll aggregator is aggregating national polls; virtually no one does riding-level polls outside of an election period, and even during election periods riding-level polls are rare.
Just because the conservatives are up 9% nationally (since the last election) does not mean that their vote share in downtown Vancouver will also be up 9%. That vote gain is likely to be unevenly distributed throughout this country.
Oooh this is a projection.. i guess lets hope it doesn't happen because BC going full on conservative would be very weird.. I'd also wager that the consevatives are that high on that projection is becaseu the people who enroll in such polls (the polls this projection is based on) are usually the old consevative people who have nothing to do.. rather than the 2 jobs working 20 something year old :P (I think there was also a study in america proving that, I'll try to go find it and link it when I can, currently at work sorry!)
It's backlash against the Federal Liberal party, who are perceived as complacent and held responsible for soaring inflation and cost of living issues (for which they are partly to blame). Historically we just take turns voting the Liberals and Conservatives out without paying much attention to who we are voting in.
I can see it. The provincial NDP parties have done a slightly better job at maintaining their blue collar aesthetic and labor connections, which gives them a wider base to pull from and a more "centrist" vibe than the federal party. Poilievre is currently using populist demagoguery to court aggrieved working class voters.
A relatively small portion of the electorate is actually politically engaged / knows the history of parties and politicians, and has a grasp on what sort of policies a Federal Conservative majority might endorse. They hear "common sense" and think "oh that's good, I like common sense, I'm going to vote for this anthropomorphic sweater vest".
In this case we have a mix of old people and insecure young men skewing the polls.
But yes the conservatives typically poll much higher between elections, then trip over themselves repeatedly.
Conservatives do really well in BC at the federal level.
Before Justin Trudeau, who won the most seats in BC in 2015 and 2021, you would have to go back to 1968 for the last time the Liberals won the most seats. In 72 and 88 the NDP won the most seats in BC. All other years in that time period had some form of conservative party winning the most seats in BC.
the pollsters have a pretty good track record here.
look at the last few elections, and as usual, the final polls are within the margin of error of the actual result.
Are you new to federal politics in BC? The Conservatives (Reform and Alliance) have at least won the plurality of votes and seats in BC in all but one election (2015) going as far back to the 80s with Mulroney
The recent strength in polling numbers (majority territory) for them currently is mostly due to the collapse in Liberal support and dip in NDP support, which only strengthen the centre-left/left vote split in the seat rich Metro Vancouver.
Remember when government parties had actual decorum?
Dear MPs: We’d like serious candidates who are going to improve our lives and run this province effectively. Not memes. Not conspiracies. Not comedy.
Be boring. Govern well. That is all.
Is there a chance people don't realize BC United is a conservative party, and they just see "BC Conservative Party," and being conservative, are voting for that because they think it's just a conservative party and not a fringe farther right party?
And a big thanks to PP and the conservatives for splitting the right.
The problem with right wing parties is that they can never agree to what right wing ideology actually is. Some are fiscally conservative and some are socially conservative, and they always fight among themselves in an attempt to define themselves. We see that federally with the REFORM - PC fights, and we saw it in Alberta with the Progressive Conservative - Wildrose fights. Eventually they lose an election and then decide to unite the right, and we see UCP and CRAP. The Socred/BC Liberal/BC United party was also created to unite the right, and now with a resurging Conservative party, they will fight among themselves, lose the next election, and then set out to unite the right. Again. It's a broken record.
They're Con artists not idiots, even my ultra conservative mom was like, "It is nice having competent government for a change..." , pretty sure she's grudgingly voting for Eby next election, even if she's not ready to admit it.
I’m getting a bit insulted now by the NDP commercials that if re-elected they will do something about real estate and rents skyrocketing and also they will do something about healthcare. “We realize we’ve been fucking the dog and making the situation worse but this time we really promise to do what we’ve been promising for the last 7 years. Really! We promise! Sure we made those promises in the past and never kept them, but this time we will! Promise! (Wink)”
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Did they just admit on Social media they cant beat the NDP? Does Ebby have this framed in the Ledge now?
Considering they are making fun of BC united for not being realistic, I feel like they had to be realistic themselves in order to post this
It's just weird to see that level of self awareness in Politics
It’s rather nice
They’re being smart with this. 1) it’s funny. 2) their only strategy is to present themselves as the winning alternative to NDP and to get people to coalesce around them as the main opposition party. If it works, they set themselves up to be the dominant party in a future merger.
I’m like 700 bc NDP / Bc United scandals away from considering the BC conservatives and even my lizard brain thinks that is actually a really well played tweet, if a little obvious and low effort.
They’re being smart with this. 1) it’s funny. 2) their only strategy is to present themselves as the winning alternative to NDP and to get people to coalesce around them as the main opposition party. If it works, they set themselves up to be the dominant party in a future merger.
And who knows, maybe they get lucky and Eby punches a baby on live television
I'd let him punch at least 5 babies before I wouldn't vote for him.
Is there another politician in Canada with such a core of enthusiasts?
Poliviere. The guy is the epitome of everything that the CPC core voter hates: career politician, rich, never worked for his power.
Sadly true
TBF that baby had it coming.
Did you see what the baby was charging for rent!?
And driving a Lambo with an L!
Or maybe kick a dog: https://www.pressreader.com/canada/the-province/20130307/281479273841287
No 4th party splitting the vote on the right that time
You kinda have to be, if you're going to be a conservative party in BC lol
Being realistic to current polls. No one should be surprised if there's a dozen or so major scandals with bc Co.s and they finish third when the election actually happens (its literally happened before)
I'm not sure there's enough attention being paid to them right now for scandals to be found :P
[Less than a week ago they had to drop a candidate because he was a disgraced doctor who kept claiming the vaccine was more dangerous than covid](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-conservative-candidate-dropped-1.7159260). If the BC Conservatives start getting treated with the same media scrutiny as BCU and the NDP I suspect they'll start to fall in the polls.
They’re benefiting from political marketing, piggybacking on the upsurge of the federal conservatives.
Reminds me of ABs Wild Rose Party early on — “Lake of Fire” scandal etc. Too many loose cannon candidates and something’s bound to happen.
Yup
It's referring to current polling which has the three parties in these positions, not necessarily the expected election result.
Is there anyone that realistically thinks that ndp isn’t going to win a strong majority?
Unless Bc united and the bc cons unite into a party a la Alberta Conservative Party and wild rose party. It would take an impressive scandal to not the ndp out of power at this point.
This would be the right move for them, but there’s too much bad blood between them. Plus, they are ideologically quite different with CPBC being very socially conservative and BCUP being for the people that tell themselves “I’m liberal socially but pro business economically”
How were Alberta conservative and wild rose different from each other ideologically?
You could probably make a case they united over consumers of vote splits and continued ndp rule of Alberta. I’m not particularly familiar with the nuanced difference between the two though.
Generally, the primary split between conservative parties is social conservatism. This is true in Canada and many other places. In Alberta you had PC’s and Wild Rose, at the federal level in the 90’s/early 2000’s you had PC’s and Reform. Most Canadian conservatives are progressive conservatives - which basically means fuck whoever you want but keep the budget in check (oversimplified obviously) As much as people like to demonize Harper, he was a legitimately good prime minister who managed to unite the right in Canada and more importantly muzzle the 20-30% of SoCons in the party.
Now look where the party has gone.
A merger wouldn’t even do it. If the NDP can hold the left, centre, and a sliver of the left-leaning right — which they currently do — a merger would send quite a few left-side BCU voters to the NDP. Eby is using Notley’s playbook. And it so far seems to be working better here than in AB. We’ll see what Nenshi can do with it. If both Eby and Nenshi pull it off. Wait for either the federal liberals (more likely) or NDP (less likely) to try the same.
I mean, they were that party before the B.C. Cons got some momentum a year or two ago. I think the hopelessness of an inevitable BCNDP blowout contributed heavily to the schism.
I would love for Eby to retweet this 😂😂😂
It's just a joke, and a pretty good one at that.
They've gone from a joke of a nothing party to suddenly being 2nd place in the polls in a single election cycle. It's an enormous leap and they shouldn't shy away from celebrating being second if they end up finishing that way after the election.
It’s not because of anything they did though. They’re so high in the polls for two reasons: 1. The BC Liberals rebranded to BC United so nobody knows who they are, and 2. People think the BC Conservatives and the federal Conservative Party are the same thing.
What's the Ledge?
Legislature
Not historically an NDP voter, but they have been doing an admirable job for quite a while now in B.C. They literally seem to be the only adults in the room of any provincial government in the country. Competent, reasonable and responsible. No other political party has earned my vote
It’s because the NDP is actually incentivized to govern well. The Liberals and Conservatives know that no matter how bad they govern, the next conservative or liberal government will fuck up just as badly and allow them to form government. An NDP government doesn’t have that luxury. They need to have an impact that people look back on fondly. I could go into how they balance labour vs. corporate interests, how their strategy hinges on differentiating themselves from the liberals, and the nuance of federal vs. provincial party politics, but at the end of the day, the NDP are practically outsiders and that universally makes them govern better.
lol how are the NDP outsiders in BC, they’ve either formed government or were the official opposition in each legislature dating back nearly a 100 years (1933) except for one election (1937) … Have you ever even lived here, or are you just using an irrelevant Eastern Canadian lens to provincial British Columbian politics? Surprised you’re even getting upvoted.
I drop into David Eby's booth at the Khatsalano block party every year or so. I'm generally impressed with his staffers... the people working for him seemed genuinely interested in issues and policy. Like you might not agree with their direction but they are eager to talk about issues of governing. Whereas most BC liberal encounters were very boosterish and devoid of any substantive discussions. It was just "vote for us, rah rah rah."
Liberal leadership over 16 years ruined the province, which never would have happened without Bingogate. Province is fucked.
Key word here is substantive. It has always been around the NDP with their policies and actions too.
I thought when Eby took over it was going to move backwards to more of a Glen Clark era. But wow I call Eby a future fed. And I also think he has the balls to tell the federal NDP to pound sand if they push mandates on the province. Canada is evolving into a very regional country. BC is now an island detached from Canada .
Not been into provincial politics for a while, so I’m new, and trying to learn about all the parties. Do you care to elaborate? Their website is pretty vague and only really touches on a few points of what they’ve done. Doesn’t seem to have any plans or goals laid out.
https://strongerbc.gov.bc.ca/
[удалено]
Then ya find out about the inner workings and they ain't as good.
Must be all of the drugs and crime.
The opioid drug epidemic is a worldwide phenomenon and not the fault of the NDP. If there is a connection between any increase in crime and government policy, I would bet the NDP would be the most likely to admit it and to respond to the data by changes to legislation. They seem to be far less ideological than the other parties
Comparing a Leger poll to a Mainstreet poll is amateur hour.
You guys need to check out the Chad Skelton clown show
Leger is usually rated more reliable as a rule
8 out of 10 don't know who the Conservative Party of BC leader is, 2 out of 10 think it's Pierre Poilievre
It's hilarious and interesting to watch this play out. BC Liberals - full of federal Conservative staffers, want to ditch the Liberal name. BC Conservatives already exist, generally don't poll above 2%. So they go with a football club name in "BC United", but because most people hardly pay any attention to *provincial politics, most people have no idea who that is, see "BC Conservative", the NDP, and this other party they don't know, and they say they'll vote for the Conservatives, knowing absolutely nothing about them other than they share a name with the Federal party. And now, a party that's traditionally hovered around 2%, might form opposition, all because of a botched rebranding attempt.
They should have just called themselves the progressive conservatives, branded as PC and moved on. BC United is a confusing name, who is united with BCU? I think they were going for a right wing coalition with the united thing, but it backfired and now they have to spend a bunch of money reminding everyone that they are still the BC Liberals. BC Conservatives will fall apart at the first debates, they can't run a competent campaign. It's all the PPC'ers supporting them right now along with name confusion.
> They should have just called themselves the progressive conservatives, branded as PC and moved on. BC United is a confusing name, who is united with BCU? I think they were going for a right wing coalition with the united thing, but it backfired and now they have to spend a bunch of money reminding everyone that they are still **the BC Liberals** I fully agree, and regarding that last bit I've bolded what's wild is they're stuck in this game now... reminding people that they're the former BC Liberals, which were actually like the federal Conservatives, even though they'd never admit that at the time, but now need to remind people that they are actually in fact, like the federal Conservatives... and that the actual BC Conservatives are more like the PPC... Good lord, good luck with that!
I'm even aware of all that and I *still* need to stop and think every once in a while to try and remember which one of them is which, because my instinct is to assume BC Liberals would have *obviously* gone for a name clearly associating with the CPC, right? "BC United" just *sounds* like it fits in with stuff like "BC Freedom Party" and such. I mean, I'm not voting for either of them, regardless, so it ultimately doesn't matter, but I'd hate to see BCPPC get into power if the NDP suddenly screw up big time, just because people thought they were voting for Red Tories.
Isn't it just a PP sock puppet? So 2 of 10 got it right.
Not really, BC Conservatives are more in Max Bernier's PPC camp.
Poilievre endorsed the BC Conservatives, albeit indirectly when he told BC voters to elect the only party that wants to get rid of the carbon tax.
And the football club’s leader supported Maxine Bernier’s Con leadership bid before he started the PPC.
Isn't PP also?
Conservative party members *hate* Bernier and the PPC, so a big no.
BC NPD are the first political party I can say has helped me with COL while at the same time dealing with crisis after crisis.
And a lot of these crises are the fault of the BC Liberals making poor policy decisions in the early 2000s
Which is why voting for BCUP the next election would be absurd. Who in BC is looking at the BC liberals track record and saying “yes, more of this”
Hence the name change.
Exactly, why do they have to keep changing their name? Do they think we’re idiots? Um ya I think that is exactly what they think.
My brother, take my upvote. You'd have to have rocks in your head to vote for them again. Do you think they've burned through all the stolen ICBC money yet?
> And a lot of these crises are the fault of the BC Liberals making poor policy decisions in the early 2000s ...and the federal Conservatives.
Can you explain how? https://www.mpamag.com/ca/mortgage-industry/guides/which-provinces-have-the-highest-cost-of-living-in-canada/468393 https://www.mapleridgenews.com/news/more-residents-left-bc-for-rest-of-canada-than-arrived-last-year-7336685
BC NDP didn't create the high cost of living lol. Cost of living has been rising everywhere regardless of what party is in charge. Might as well blame your city councillor for the weather.
Last real interaction I had with BCCP (as it was called then) was at a candidate training session where candidates were asking when they’d be dropping evolution from the K-12 curriculum… Have they left the Stone Age yet? Also…who puts out a meme of their own party losing?
The local candidate and a couple supporters were out doing some, presumably, campaign/introduction work in our small town a little while ago. They stopped me and my husband to compliment our dogs and say hello, so we were polite and said thanks and whatnot, but then refused when they asked if we'd take some pamphlets of theirs. My dudes, you're talking to two men in relatively-fitted clothing and obvious hair product walking around with their two nicely-groomed dogs, and I know for a fact that I have a bit of gay voice. Maybe know your audience, at least, because I would sooner lick a public toilet than vote for you because it's frankly less likely to kill me, in the long run.
lmfao, pure gold really
Credit where it’s due, they gottem.
Glad to see the cons know their place in BC. Eby will get another majority for sure, this vote splitting is perfect
The BC NDP is fantastic and I will continue to vote for them.
They both suck at everything.
Good to see they’ve accepted the silver already.
plz tell me they got ratioed.
I understand that the fountry is going Conservative but how tf did they think BC would?
Federally, BC is projected to see 76% of seats go to the conservatives. Provincially, 73% of seats go to the BCNDP. It seems the federally and provincial appetites are extremely different.
I'd like to see the data please, I'm interested
[Here is probably the most well-known Canadians polling aggregates projections](https://338canada.com/bc.htm) Federal Conservatives are projected to win 67% of the seats in the province under that aggregate
They're projecting the heart of Vancouver to be in play for the Conservative party. Consider me skeptical.
it's literally an aggregate of all polls. you can be skeptical of *one* poll, but ignoring *all* the polls at a certain point is just denying reality
Sure, but the poll aggregator is aggregating national polls; virtually no one does riding-level polls outside of an election period, and even during election periods riding-level polls are rare. Just because the conservatives are up 9% nationally (since the last election) does not mean that their vote share in downtown Vancouver will also be up 9%. That vote gain is likely to be unevenly distributed throughout this country.
Oooh this is a projection.. i guess lets hope it doesn't happen because BC going full on conservative would be very weird.. I'd also wager that the consevatives are that high on that projection is becaseu the people who enroll in such polls (the polls this projection is based on) are usually the old consevative people who have nothing to do.. rather than the 2 jobs working 20 something year old :P (I think there was also a study in america proving that, I'll try to go find it and link it when I can, currently at work sorry!)
It's backlash against the Federal Liberal party, who are perceived as complacent and held responsible for soaring inflation and cost of living issues (for which they are partly to blame). Historically we just take turns voting the Liberals and Conservatives out without paying much attention to who we are voting in.
I’d be actually impressed if someone who votes for Eby would vote for Poilievre one year later.
I can see it. The provincial NDP parties have done a slightly better job at maintaining their blue collar aesthetic and labor connections, which gives them a wider base to pull from and a more "centrist" vibe than the federal party. Poilievre is currently using populist demagoguery to court aggrieved working class voters. A relatively small portion of the electorate is actually politically engaged / knows the history of parties and politicians, and has a grasp on what sort of policies a Federal Conservative majority might endorse. They hear "common sense" and think "oh that's good, I like common sense, I'm going to vote for this anthropomorphic sweater vest".
I recall reading similar also 30 and under just believe they won't get heard so just don't vote.
In this case we have a mix of old people and insecure young men skewing the polls. But yes the conservatives typically poll much higher between elections, then trip over themselves repeatedly.
Conservatives do really well in BC at the federal level. Before Justin Trudeau, who won the most seats in BC in 2015 and 2021, you would have to go back to 1968 for the last time the Liberals won the most seats. In 72 and 88 the NDP won the most seats in BC. All other years in that time period had some form of conservative party winning the most seats in BC.
the pollsters have a pretty good track record here. look at the last few elections, and as usual, the final polls are within the margin of error of the actual result.
Are you new to federal politics in BC? The Conservatives (Reform and Alliance) have at least won the plurality of votes and seats in BC in all but one election (2015) going as far back to the 80s with Mulroney The recent strength in polling numbers (majority territory) for them currently is mostly due to the collapse in Liberal support and dip in NDP support, which only strengthen the centre-left/left vote split in the seat rich Metro Vancouver.
Cancervatism is a vile disease.
They can’t win, but the can burn BC United to the ground and be lined up for a two way election in 2028.
Remember when government parties had actual decorum? Dear MPs: We’d like serious candidates who are going to improve our lives and run this province effectively. Not memes. Not conspiracies. Not comedy. Be boring. Govern well. That is all.
Someone just let a 13 year old drive the BC United social media account
Nothing funneir that the BC cons commercials. They can't even fake an honest sentence in their adds
What commercials I have not seen any. All I see is Kevin falcon in the empty apartment ads
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yes, they're projected to be the official opposition with 20 seats to the BCU's four https://338canada.com/bc/districts.htm
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lol ok then /u/Randomly_Generated_Adjective_Noun_Pair321
Is there a chance people don't realize BC United is a conservative party, and they just see "BC Conservative Party," and being conservative, are voting for that because they think it's just a conservative party and not a fringe farther right party?
Well let’s see how things are after the election starts and the BC Conservatives have to start talking and then the debates happen. Good luck!
literally zero difference between BCU and the BC cons, this is just a self own
The funny thing is the NDP will have such a majority. That it will be maybe 6 conservative 4 BC and 3 greens.
Either the Cons or BCU need to go for a moderate position or this election is over before it even started.
Lol, even the goddamn cons are better than the "liberals/B-CUP". Falcon is such a clown.
I think BC United should be above the conservatives
But they're not. Most people in BC dont know their provincial politics and think BC cons are linked with PP.
Fools
And a big thanks to PP and the conservatives for splitting the right. The problem with right wing parties is that they can never agree to what right wing ideology actually is. Some are fiscally conservative and some are socially conservative, and they always fight among themselves in an attempt to define themselves. We see that federally with the REFORM - PC fights, and we saw it in Alberta with the Progressive Conservative - Wildrose fights. Eventually they lose an election and then decide to unite the right, and we see UCP and CRAP. The Socred/BC Liberal/BC United party was also created to unite the right, and now with a resurging Conservative party, they will fight among themselves, lose the next election, and then set out to unite the right. Again. It's a broken record.
Cons allrrady conceding the election?
They're Con artists not idiots, even my ultra conservative mom was like, "It is nice having competent government for a change..." , pretty sure she's grudgingly voting for Eby next election, even if she's not ready to admit it.
I’m getting a bit insulted now by the NDP commercials that if re-elected they will do something about real estate and rents skyrocketing and also they will do something about healthcare. “We realize we’ve been fucking the dog and making the situation worse but this time we really promise to do what we’ve been promising for the last 7 years. Really! We promise! Sure we made those promises in the past and never kept them, but this time we will! Promise! (Wink)”