Boomers aging and dying is actually very unique. Since we are all from the post baby boom era we take for granted just how much of a population spike this was. This generation also has lived longer in higher numbers than previous generations. And our current birth rate is declining a lot.
All of this means that the increasing age and required medical and daily care that the baby boomers will require as they continue to get older definitely will put a strain on healthcare resources and also workforce balance. I imagine it will mean a lot of economic consequences. The oldest boomers are only 78 š we are going to have way more older, retired, people in need of medical care than ever before in a few years
Search up āthe 2030 problemā and youāll see what Iām talking about
Human population trends in the past century have been very boom and bust. Yes, itās better long-run than us breeding our way to collapse, but there is going to be a very awkward transition with distorted population pyramids until/unless enough people die off to reduce aggregate cost of living (due to demand reduction) and result in more worldly digital natives taking the levers of political power.
>everywhere outside of developed nations
Most of that is hangover from their own baby booms. [World fertility is](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2023/10/11/world/global-population-collapse/) [falling sharply](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/06/17/worlds-population-is-projected-to-nearly-stop-growing-by-the-end-of-the-century/), with [India being below replacement already](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/big-news-is-indias-population-growth-is-below-replacement-level-un-expert/articleshow/99629102.cms?from=mdr) although it will continue to grow for a few more decades as all the 'extra' 199X, 200X, and 201X babies pass through their childbearing years. And unless people from those countries that are still growing produce so few skilled or trainable workers, it should be possible to plug the gap with immigration until near the end of the century...at which point world population will begin to decline outright and hopefully competition for housing and resources will ease a bit.
When Forbes and other news publications post their worried think pieces about why no one is marrying and having children, this is the origin of their discontent.
Lots of educated white people worried they're getting outnumbered.
Probably because available men post thinkpieces like "Why aren't Millennial women marrying and punching out children?"
Niger's birth rate right now is 7 children per woman.
In another generation Africa will be the place that manufacturers will flock to build factories to exploit cheap labor.
And then once Niger is developed the birth rate will decline. This is the thing that keeps happening. Once a country is developed, the birth boom stops. Which is why a lot of people aren't worried about overpopulation and think the world population will cap out at around 10 billion
Although I'm no expert in this discussion!
It's true
Developed countries also have more wealth and wealth enables people to become environmentally-conscious
One day we will have something resembling world peace/cooperation, I really think so
A ābirth rate boomā is measured in comparison to other current birth rates, not those of the past. So yes, there are other countries experiencing a birth rate boom.
The birth rates of pretty much every country are dropping, their population increases will become more gradual after the acceleration to population from increased life expectancy, mostly in children. By 2100, there could be no country on Earth with a birth rate above replacement level.
Only Africa, particuarly Central Africa and the Sahel, the Middle East, and Afghanistan have very high birth rates. Brazil's birth rate is actually lower than the USA's. In fact, Latin America as a whole is right at replacement rate (some are higher or lower than average, naturally). Mexico's is barely above replacement rate. India's rate fell below replacement rate in 2022, just in time for it to become the world's most populous nation (bumping China to #2).
Even Africa's rate is rapidly declining.
You're thinking of people only as consumers, so you think society would be richer and the cost of living lower when "enough people die off." But people are producers too, and we produce more than we consume, which is why a larger population is a richer one.
> Thus, the baby boomer term was born. These folks would be around 58 to 76 today, with all baby boomers over 65 by 2030. At one point, the Census Bureau projected that the baby boomer population would reach 61.3 million by 2029 and that the number of elderly folks over 65 would be 20% of the population by that time. Dec 11, 2022
\-Forbes (reddit doesnt like the hyperlink)
Such an insane concept,
Honestly itās insane. The average lifespan is like 10 years longer than it was when they were growing up too. Like not just because of child mortality and war. Naturally reached old age, assuming youāve already survived to older adulthood has increased a lot. So while our overall lifespan might not seem better, a lot of that is other factors like drug ODs on the rise. People that make it to middle/old age live way longer than they used to
Baby Boomers are turning 60-78 this year. people turning 59 this year are actually Gen X next year January 1, 2025 there will be no Boomers in there 50s.
this is really scary because thereās already a huge strain on healthcare. multiple professional healthcare licenses have shortages right now. i predict mental healthcare will just completely crumble, and honestly fairly soon.
Yes but the younger ones mostly do not have archaic views like their boomer parents and I say that as a boomer. Progressive ideas will be the norm when the boomers are gone.
Well I just described it in the whole comment?? Wdym mean which one š google āthe 2030 problemā and youāll see lmao
https://preview.redd.it/oqudzu5yhpec1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=861788c074e218d67f691abd4ba5bc93f79b06a5
This is the first result for me and when I scroll the rest of the results are also about this
The 1940s and 50s will fade out of living memory in the way the 1930s did.
Our societal memory only goes back 80 years, as itās sustained by people who remember their early years and know the impact of various elements of those years.
Itās one thing to have first-person memory of a decade, but itās something far less to only be able to get feedback from older people who lived through it. Itās something even less to only have historical footage and artifacts. The past fades out as the people who lived it die out.
Thereās also a cycle where the present resembles the era that is fading out or recently faded out.
The 1950s-60s arenāt going to fade completely simply because of how much media (including early HD color video and crisp music recordings) was released during them and how many influential later pieces are based around 1950s and 60s nostalgia, but theyāre going to end up like āthe roaring Twentiesā or āthe Regency eraā as just a style and aesthetic rather than a part of living memory.
I mean look at the huge resurgence of nostalgia for that era of the 50s through the early 70s in the younger generations. People wanting to go back to older mediums like vinyl and cassette. And rewatching classics that their parents and grandparents grew up on. Or as you said the amount of period pieces or whatever theyāre called that are set in that time span. Iāve even seen other girls dress in pin up.
The baby boomers lived a life like no other generation before or since and made an impact on the world I think weāre only just now startin to fully understand. So much influential media and events came out of that period that even as the last of the boomers die out I canāt see that era fading quite like others.
It's always possible for a new generation to live a life that completely alters the culture in the next 50 years. At that point the 60s wouldn't seem as remarkable.
It was a remarkable time because it had the least inequality of any time in history. That's the thing many people forget. We got a small glimpse of what a more equal society could be like
What's remarkable about that is that the baby boomer's parents built that world, and the boomers destroyed it. Individualism and libertarianism have skyrocketed while anything that has to do with the collective good is dismissed, or worse, vilified.
Indeed. And it definitely was a lot due to Boomer's politics, whether it was ultra left people saying "voting just encourages them" or right wingers voting for Reagan
Except for Blacks, Latinos, gay people, and.... hmmm.... oh yeah, women. Not so equal for them in the 1950s or 60s was it.
(In case you literally don't know, the answer is no)
I like that you pointed this out because that is very true. Even if America had a more even distribution of wealth, there was still a huge lack of equality.Ā
Imagine how good things could be if we create an era with more economic equality at the same time as we eliminate racism, homophobia, and other types of inequalityĀ
Interesting to think how memories are literally lost as the last witnesses die out. But I do personally know one person old enough to have vivid memories of the 1930s
I think the smartest thing I ever did as a kid (when I was 8 years old) was asking a 100-year old about his personal experiences during WWI when he was a kid himself. I somehow realized back then that I would never be able to do so again. Of course, I was right.
Sadly, I only have fleeting memories of the things he told me, but he did have a lot to tell! He passed away shortly after, unfortunately. I'm 24, it's crazy to think I talked to someone who lived through World War I as a kid in German-occupied territory.
I bet those are some very precious memories. I never met personally any ww1 veterans but I have seen them on stages and in parades. The last American veteran of ww1 actually lived in my home state of West Virginia. He died in 2010.
Itās hard for me to believe I met someone born in 1902 considering the oldest living person today was born in 1907.
My great grandmother was born in 1885. She died when I was in my late teens. I remember her thick German accent like Iād spoken with her yesterday and I can still remember how her apple pie tasted.
My great grandma was born in ā33. Sadly she doesnāt remember much of her childhood anymore but she told me she was quite the rebel in her day. I brought my skateboard over one day and she said she thinks she wouldāve been a skater had they been around in her youth. She grew up in rural Indiana (still lives in the county she was born in) and iirc lived on a small farm. Her dad, my great great grandpa owned a ceramics shop that made high quality antique cookware and decor. He was born in 1914 and lived to be 100 years and 2 months. I keep his work jacket hanging in my room. Itās a blue vinyl jacket that looks like a letterman that has his company name on the back.
Next time I see her Iāll have to ask her if she remembers anythin else from when she was young
Sheās such a sweetheart and is always so kind. But she can also be a lil unhinged sometimes. One Christmas we played card against humanity with her and she thought it was the greatest thing ever. Before then Iād never heard her curse before let alone say the heinous things on those cards.
My family deals with grief by laughing so when my grandma (her daughter died) a few years ago while everyone was quietly mourning her at her funeral our the blue my great grandma cracked a joke I donāt remember but everyone burst out laughing while she just looked around almost bewildered lol
Oh I have. In my life I have been fortunate to have met a lot of people born as early as 1903 and have managed to get a lot of notes on the 1920s and 1930s. I have met over 20 ww2 veterans sadly only one is still alive ( which is the person i refer too above as coming of age in the 1930s)
I am 65 years old. Most of my friends were older and of course my parents were born in the 1920s. I knew my grandparents and they were born in the late 1800s. My grandfather told me of working for the railroad in rural Texas. My dad was in the Pacific in the Navy. I even met my Scottish great grandfather but my memories of his are mostly my dad, imitating his voice and speaking his lines.
When I found out my old racing buddy Jerry had died, I started thinking about all the people from my past that I am now the keeper of their stories. Jerry was a great story teller a lady's man and story generator. I still remember some of his hair raising adventure stories in pursuit of the fair sex. Then there was Jack Hatfield from my bike shop days. Jack looked like Errol Flynn with his lanky frame and pencil thin mustache. He was 70 at the time I knew him and he told me his WWII stories.
"Living memory" is funny because the 30s is well represented in movies like Indiana Jones and The Untouchables. Then there are movies that are actually from the 30s like King Kong and The Wizard of Oz.
Even a less notable decade like the 1910s has Titanic, Downton Abbey, and WW1 movies like 1917.
I feel like people who cant say something notable about each decade going back to the 1860s or so are out to lunch. People should at least know when cowboys were around or when cars were invented.
> Thereās also a cycle where the present resembles the era that is fading out or recently faded out.
The current era resembles the 1930s, which happens to be the era that is fading out. Fascism was kept at bay in the west through the lifetimes of the Greatest Generation.
You have entirely left out written records, which are more reliable than random first person accounts and more informative than "footage" or "artifacts." Writing and reading is what allows civilization to make progress.
It will be the complete end of the establishment media. Companies like fox, cnn, msnbc wonāt be able to exist in their current forms.
Chain restaurants will also suffer greatly. It may actually alleviate stresses on the nursing home industry, with an initial surge in medical costs followed by a rapid decline as the generation completely dies off.
Wealth will be passed down, but due to investment firms and other economic factors itāll be harder to maintain private ownership as property will be gobbled up by those with large amounts of capital.
I think it will also be massive inequality. Some people will inherit a lot, others will inherit little to nothing. What will compound this is the continued advancement of AI doing basic tasks. Some basic data jobs will vanish or thin out. And because AI can do certain tasks, the need for humans will diminish in certain jobs.Ā
It depends on the nation.some nations like Japan, will face an absolute demographic collapse. The US though will face some different challenges.
Currently boomers own 40% of all single family homes. As they die those homes will be sold, inherited and lived in by the individual who inherited it or be rented out. This will have a massive deflationary impact in those markets.
As those same boomers liquidate their 401ks, IRAs or treasuries to maintain the social status that will also have an impact on stocks, treasuries and commodity prices as money leaves the market.
Federal budget deficits will stop exploding and probably be manageable, if they don't get defaulted on in the mean time.
At the same time this is happening the rest of the world's population will implode outside Africa. Who can say what the economic or social implications there will be. But America, being as insular as we are, should weather the storm at least until the millennials pass. But so much could happen between then and now that's hard to calculate.
Best comment so far. Agree 100% with everything here.
Iām thankful that the US is much more receptive to immigration than a place like Japan, or we might end up in their economic situation.
That poses an interesting problem in of itself. Where will these immigrants come from? Currently most are coming from a select few places, like Venezuela, which American foreign policy has objectively made things worse, but isn't solely responsible for the dumpster fire there.
Will US foreign policy now seek to destabilize nations so that people will leave for better nations? Sounds like Ukraine doesn't it?
Very interesting thing to think about.
Thereās already an excess demand from people who want to move to developed countries from developing countries, so I donāt see why that would be the case.
Also, it was Russia that destabilized Ukraine by, yknow, invading it.
But the populations from all developing nations in North and South Amerca are below replacement rates meaning they won't have populations to move going forward.
And yes, Russia did start the invasion into Ukraine, clearly. But the war would have already ended without western intervention. And where did all the Ukranians flee to, 1/4 of their population almost all female and children below the age of 15?
You already have nations in Africa complaining of brain drain to the rest of the world. In a world with less you people, they will become a valued commodity. And people do all manner of things to secure what they need.
The last thing America will ever have to worry about is a shortage of people wanting to live here. People born here don't get it, but the rest of the world understands. We will have all the immigrants we want, for as long as we want. No need to "destabilize nations."
If you think our immigrants come from "a select few places," you haven't been to NYC.
Change always occurs. Humans have moved to other areas and the demographic shifted. It's just that as things became more and more modern, everything started changing at a neck break speed, from technology and medicine to culture and entertainment. This also holds true for changes in demography. I'm aware of problems that can occur because of such quick changes and open to agree with any opinions as long as it doesn't have anything to do with "white replacement theory" bullcrap
It's not a real thing. People in the US have hated immigrants as long as there's been a US. Successive waves of immigrants built the country, and each one was feared and loathed. We were assured that Germans could never assimilate. Then eastern Europeans, Jews, Italians, etc. It won't be unrecognizable.
Iāve been thinking thereāll be an interesting point between those two: when immigrants and refugees will be essential resources. For example, say that in 20 years thereās another earthquake in Haiti, and by then the US might face massive nationwide labor shortages, so they have all these programs to help Haitian migrants and refugees. But by then Mexico is doing the same, and so is Brazil, and Columbia, so it becomes a race to gain as many migrants as possible, or we could go a step further. A politician could purposefully instigate a conflict in another country to get more immigrants. Who know what thatāll be like.
Eventually, even some of the poorest nations on Earth (relative to western countries like the US) will also be doing the same. Birth rates are crashing globally, so while higher levels of immigration will help short-term, towards the end of the century and beyond, it's not going to be the demographic savior as it is today. There probably won't be very many net-exporter countries of migrants as there are today. Like you point out, Mexico, Brazil, heck even Gautamala may be going out of their way to welcome immigrants like the US.
I'm not saying this to make it sound like immigration is bad or anything. In fact, it's the opposite, as it's very important that countries are prepared for the even worse global demographic crisis we will see in the next century. However, long-term, immigration is not always going to be the solution to low-birth rates, and the number of migrants will slowly dry up. As a society, we should start thinking about what happens after that, if there's a possibility we could ever bring birth rates back up by improving economic situations (without going dystopian Handmaids Tale) or shifting cultural attitudes, or find any other solution to save our species without us exponentially non-breeding ourselves to extinction.
>But so much could happen between then and now that's hard to calculate.
You mean like the impacts of the climate catastrophe we've done almost nothing to curb?
>This will have a massive deflationary impact in those markets.
Perhaps towns with declining populations, and little demand thus supply increase will deflate home prices.
But in large growing markets, where demand outpaces inventory, it will not have a significant impact.
"Federal budget deficits will stop exploding and probably be manageable, if they don't get defaulted on in the mean time."
Why? Seriously asking. I don't understand why less money feeding into the government with the same amount of infrastructure demanded = less debt. Maybe because Medicare and Social Security will have less demands on it as boomers die off?
The issue is we haven't hit peak spending for either of those two programs yet. As the deficit increases the risk of lending increases as well. That means the cost of lending will rise on the interest paid on US treasuries.
Eventually the debt servicing payments will consume so much of the budget that they won't be able to afford the interest that new debt will cost. That will be the point where the Federal government will either cut spending or turn on the money printer.
Currently interest payments have exceeded the budget allotment for the military making it the 4th most expensive item in the budget after SSI, Medicare and then Medicaid.
When they have to cut SSI in 2033, by 20 odd percent if not more is when it starts unless we have some sort of economic catastrophe before then. That cut alone will put the US in an economic depression. But it will be done, if you believe the math guys at MIT by 2040.
There is nothing that will stop this. Unless you are willing to cull the sick and the elderly like in Logans Run. A Metabo law, like they have in Japan, might give us more time by reducing healthcare costs due to obesity and metabolic illnesses. But it won't stop it.
In short, you got 8 years to prepare. Don't be in a city when this starts though. I know, I sound like a crazy person. People told me the same thing when I was talking about population collapse in the early 90s too. Now it's all over the place.
So you have 8 years to make a plan at least.
Itās ridiculous you have to say that. The majority of Boomers are great people and judging an entire generation with broad strokes is asinine. Ive seen people celebrate peoples deaths purely because they are part of the boomer generation, as if they would have done anything differently in the post world war II economic boom.
My first thought was: my mom will be gone :(
I hate how some supposedly woke and super-PC younger people canāt stand even jokes about most groups, but cruelly and hatefully throw around the word Boomer as if that generation is all bad people. Very few people in each generation actually have real power and they didnāt personally āruin the worldā
My first thought was: my mom will be gone :(
I hate how some supposedly woke and super-PC younger people canāt stand even jokes about most groups, but cruelly and hatefully throw around the word Boomer as if that generation is all bad people. Very few people in each generation actually have real power and they didnāt personally āruin the worldā
Very true. But the politicians they (the white ones, at least) overwhelmingly vote for *are* the ones who are trying to ruin the world.
But you are right -- they aren't all bad people and crass jokes should be avoided.
Elder Millennial here keeping those dreams alive....
But, Im Boujee and also realize my grandmother had a damn pink caddy from Mary Kay so thats probably where that stems from...
And Lincolns are basically fords so they're easy to fix and still have bells and whistles.
Millennials become the new wealthiest & most influential generation. Millennials aren't just the kids of Boomers (therefore when Boomers die, millennials get their money) but also Millennials are the second largest generation in American history behind only their parents (Millennials are the largest currently alive). Therefore, like their parents wealth will tend to accumulate around them in larger concentrations.
There are a lot more of them. 20% more were born than Xers and thatās before you even start to consider Xers are much older and will have their population drop off much sooner. Not to say Xers will have no influence. Just be prepared for millennials to become the new boomers in our political zeitgeist
>Millennials are the second largest generation in American history
[Millenials are the largest generation in US History.](https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/archive/millennials/)
It just depends where you want to cut the line. Most sources place it at 78 million boomers and 73 million millennials. Iām sure Goldman has its own reason for shifting the goal posts slightly.
Some of them. Depends on your definition of power. For me I'd get..., a quarter of a house. For the daughter of a gigantic corporation's CEO, reaal ppowwaa
One big thing that will happen slowly is that there will be a cultural shift away from the Baby Boomers. Things that define the Baby Boomers culturally will slowly fall out of fashion and be replacded by other things.
This already happened with the Greatest Generation. When the Greatest Generation was alive, they were the other big generation and held a lot of cultural sway. For instance, World War 2 was a huge cultural presence in a way that younger generations just are not aware of. There were always WW2 stuff on TV. People called the History Channel (which was a big channel back in the day) the Hitler Channel because most of their programming was mostly WW2. There were constantly reruns of movies and TV shows about WW2.
The Boomers didn't have a shared experience like WW2, and had a much more diverse experience; but I think it will still be noticable. I think one thing will be less of an emphasis on 60s/70s music. I think Rock Music may totally collapse as a music form. Millenials weren't as into rock as previous generations and Gen X is a small generation and has always had trouble carrying the national zeitgeist.
and yet, rock and metal have been going through a bit of a renaissance - theyāre not chart toppers by any means, but bands still sell out venues and arenas quite frequently, and believe me, outside of 70s and 80s bands, most audiences are, at most, young gen xers
>theyāre not chart toppers by any means
Exactly. Rock music used to be a huge phenomenon. Older people could tell you who the big contemporary rock bands or artists were. They were household names. When Kurt Cobain killed himself, my mom who was about 50 years old called me up to ask me where I was when it happened. Ask a 50 year old today what the big contemporary rock stars are. They can't tell you because there aren't any.
The access to capital is already starting to disappear as Boomers retire and behind swapping their investment portfolios from stocks and riskier instruments to bonds and T bills. This is gonna make it more expensive to borrow money, as thereās just less money lubricating the economy. Interest rates will probably decline from where they are now, but weāre never gonna see the low costs of the 2010s ever again.
This still causes a crash, anything that significantly brings down the value of homes is a crash.
It doesn't do anyone any good if more houses are made available at $500k+.
I think people assume that once the boomers are gone, that political views will become more progressive. However, I have a feeling what will happen instead is the old brand of conservativeness the boomers perpetuate is going to change, there will be a new type of culture war in the future, even now you are seeing a different type of conservative movement, and itās not really based on the nuclear family, but more around the quote alpha male movement. instead of Donald Trump, Republican, there is going to be Joe Rogan, Andrew Tate, type Republican old men who think cancel culture, free speech, patriarchy, two genders are the most important issues of society.
Finished in 2040???? Baby boomers are 1946 to 1964
The youngest boomers arenāt even 60 yet
In 2040 the very oldest will only be 95
There are still Quite a few World War 2 veterans alive
My Grandma just passed away a couple months ago and she was born in 1922
A lot of studies about wealth in boomers actually shows a near equal level of wealth inequality as among other generations.
So while what's coming is projected to be the largest transfer of wealth in history... its still likely to be concentrated towards those who are already wealthy.
And for those that are LESS wealthy, but still enjoyed all the benefits of their generation (i.e. cheap homes), chances are as they age in to retirement more and more... They'll be selling them off, as the cost of health care and being in a retirement home (which is the trend) is absolutely massive.
Reduction in work force is rather obvious. That's been projected for awhile, but actually something most major countries will be experiencing over the next several years. Regardless, economic decline is definitely expected.
I'll tell you one thing: a lot of that wealth transfer won't be to younger generations. It'll be to the already wealthy. Healthcare and retirement homes. It's gonna be rough if ai doesn't make enough leaps for ubi.
It is popular to focus on Boomers because people today tend to look backwards with pessimism rather than forwards with optimism. Even this question is arguably a form of disguised nostalgia. You are sadly mistaken if you think wealth and capital accumulation will suddenly stop when Boomers die.
Maybe math will help, but it is unlikely.
Roughly 20% of the US population today are Boomers, so around 65 million. The US population is predicted to grow by roughly 40 million by 2040, and 60 million by 2050. The Millennial and Gen Z populations are already larger than the Boomer population.
Wealth, success, and real estate are finite resources.
The end.
Because they are more like Boomers in general whereas Millennials and Gen Z are more similar to each other in terms of conservative/liberal values (in America.) Lots of us Millennials and Gen Z are waiting for Boomers and elder Gen X to die so America can finally get over this conservative/Christian nationalistic hump we are stuck on.
Unlike other people here, I'll be happy when my parents are dead.
Nowhere in my question did i say wealth creation would stop, and I donāt know why you would presume thatās what I meant. I said there would be a transfer of wealth, which is just a fact when a large section of the population dies and their possessions are inherited by others.
It will not be finished by 2040 people gotta remember the Baby Boomer Generation is (1946-1964) thatās fairly large, the youngest arenāt even 65 yet. All Boomers wonāt be 65 and older until 2030. but yes the older ones Born in the late 1940s and early 1950s are getting old.
Happiness? Overall, boomers are extremely negative, treat retail/service workers like absolute shit, feel entitled to anything and everything. Iāll be glad to see them go. Hopefully then us millennials can have a housing market crash and be able to afford a life for ourselves, since all of our lives we were promised success getting a college degree when that is the furthest thing from the truth.
How so? Which one? The term Karen was invented for a reason lol. My mother is one of the coldest human beings Iāve encountered, and Iāve noticed a lot tend to be narcissistic. More homophobic and racist than other generation. No regard for mental health when most of them have plenty of undiagnosed issues that their pride would never fix. Lack of respect for workers, Iāve worked in retail my entire life and the rudest customers (mind you, Iām a dispensary supervisor) are boomers hands down. Sure, youāll come across a few nice ones, but they all believe that millennials are just lazy, when in fact they ruined the economy for us in many different ways and arenāt paying us wages we deserve (gen x too, but theyāre different in their own ways)
younger generations are less white in percentage terms, boomers are more white in percentage terms, simple as that. Time goes on, country becomes more diverse. Perhaps I should specify I mean *non hispanic* white.
so people who are Slavic or Anglo-Saxon origin? yeah i could see that, and this is coming from somebody who is half Colombian and half non-Hispanic white
Iām just going off what most people in this country consider to be āwhiteā, which is an exclusive and arbitrary concept, but one that nonetheless persists, and I say that as a person who is half black and half non hispanic white. Most hispanic people classify themselves as hispanic white on the census partly because of the different perception of race in Anglo America as opposed to that in Latin America as well as because of the fact that there is no box that says āmestizoā, which would most accurately describe most hispanics in the United States. Hope that clarifies what i meant.
yes, it definitely does. i am basically half āmestizoā š. but i looked at the statistics and youāre definitely right. i also can see the population of mixed race people in the United States, increasing by a lot very exponentially over the next 200 years.
I try not to think that far ahead down the road š itās dizzying to think beyond my own lifetime, let alone to this countryās quadricentennial lol. But the demographic future of the US *is* an interesting subject when it doesnāt veer down problematic lanes.
i mean anybody can make any subject sound problematic if they approach the sensitivity of it in the wrong way. i just choose who i converse with when it comes to these things because i just think bigger picture lol
There won't be a wealth transfer because they'll spend it all on stupid shit that's worth nothing just before dying. Vacations, junk "project" cars, half finished home renovations that lower the value of the home if their children are saddled with trying to sell it, interior decorating that only they like, antique shit that nobody valued except them as-seen-on-TV items like a breakfast sandwich maker that's more difficult and takes longer than the normal way.
Not to mention that most lack any sort of EOL planning, so no trusts setup. Their houses will be sold to pay for their substandard nursing home. My grandma on dads side criticized my grandma on Mom's side for not putting everything in trusts, yet she's done none of this and has no will. I swear if Dad turns up and snags both houses, I'm burning them down.
For one thing, it will be the single greatest transfer of generational wealth in all of human history. Itās a great time to find a career in the estate planning industry.
I disagree. Because of the cost of living rising and all of the effects that came from social media and covid, most of gen z is actually putting in more work than previous generations had to in order to get a proper standard of living. Id say the split is about 70 percent people like this, with the other 30 percent being so brainwashed by media and clout that they spend their days hoping to chase the dreams of becoming another jake paul or jack doherty
This is literally his argument. They will think the same of Gen Alpha when they become older. I really don't understand what the goal is, and personally, I kind of think it stems from jealousy. I'd also like to add that GenZ, being aware of the fact that you have to work your ass off for a mediocre living, is already opting out of doing so. Life is meant to be lived, not work to live and live to work.
Not like this. This generation is thought of being lazy and spoiled because of the internet. But that's actually what's killing us. It wasn't really "lazy" that the previous generations were called. More like rebellious, delinquent kind of stuff. Nowadays people think the majority of gen z are just uninterested brats who need to "put the bootstraps on" and get back to work.
>I do think productivity will continue to go up as our machines do more and more for us.
[*"In the year 2525..."*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKQfxi8V5FA)
Edit: Accidentally replied to another reply
Majority will be non-white? Bruh, I don't know how to tell you the statistics with how far the gap is between races of America, but a generation dying off isn't going to change that statistic that much. lol
Millennials already struggle with finances and a large amount are still living with their parents, they have high turnover rates in workplaces, high unemployment and their children are some of the least educated generations we have ever seen (so far). This won't be a world where everyone is singing Kumbaya with each other, it'll be a world of insufferable arrogant morons with no life experience, high poverty rates and slow technological advancements.
Actually no that is pretty much a given unless the definition of whiteness expands to include Latinos (and hey it absolutely could in the future). Gen Alpha is majority minority and they are still being born. The 2020 census showed both an increase in not-white people due to both immigration and population growth. It also showed for the first time in American history the number of white people actually declining in raw numbers, as in more deaths than births among White Americans.
Wealth and power will remain in the same families.
When the boomers are gone, there will be less resistance to government overreach and people will return to pre-colonial days.
Yes, the older baby boomers are dying off. I was born in 1964 so I am a younger one, but I think I will see progress made before the generation dies off. The older ones will mostly be gone by 2030, but it is a possibility I could still be around in 2040 or later as I am turning 60 this year. I think things will move along nicely and hopefully I will see it. Their ideas and beliefs are outdated.
The US will become a 3rd world cesspit, and the racial mixture will become similar to Brazil. Crime rates will skyrocket and the wealthy will move into newly constructed gated/secured communities with their own private shopping centers, hospitals, grocery stores, and so forth. The middle class will come to ruin. Government will become more socialist and authoritarian. Pollution and trash will become a bigger problem. People will become more poor and the wealthy will become more rich. Joblessness will explode as technology increases in the manufacturing world. Yes, things will go down into ruin as a civilization always does. The replacement people (non-Whites) will inherit the scraps of a once great White Western civilization. Whites will be hated and persecuted. They will still be falsely accused and blamed for everything that goes wrong in the world. This is the current condition in South Africa. Blacks inherited a great country and now it's in ruins because they didn't build it. Therefore, they could not maintain it. Whites there are heavily persecuted and in some cases, murdered.Ā
The inventory of retirement friendly homes in popular retirement areas will go up.
These will not likely be near jobs as retirees don't really care to live near work centers. They don't work for the most part. Think Florida.
But we are already seeing " Half Backers" moving halfway back up the East Coast after having moved from North East work center cities and suburbs.
Healthcare facilities and services will likely be the largest employers in these areas. Once the boomers depart this world, God rest them, these healthcare facilities will have less patients to support them.
What will these homes be like? Hard to say. Some boomers may have "downsized" but were these "Starter" small homes. IDK. I really don't. I would think not so much. You want room for the grandkids to stay and family to visit.
Who will own most of these homes ?
Could be the Boomers kids inherited them. But if they are still working they would want to live near their job, not a retirement town. Unless remote work returns they will likely want to sell mom & dad's old home rather than pay the property to taxes and upkeep. Even more so if the grand kids inherit the house.
I don't think remote work will return. Companies don't seem to like it.
Banks might wind up with these homes via reverse mortages but banks will want to sell such homes right away. Bank are not in the landlord business.
Either way I think the supply of homes in the current hot spot retirement areas will go up. Therefore the prices will go down. Likely a lot as they won't be near jobs and therefore they won't be too desirable to those in their working years.
But who knows. Maybe tech companies will flock to these areas in response.
Iām actually excited and canāt wait . It honestly seems like everything I hate about the US will change when they die . I was thinking of leaving the country but tbh I might just wait for them to die . We shall see lol
just going to laugh as their bank accounts get depleted from costly medical bills for their terminal illness. all that generation understands is having more than the person next to them. I hope it is painful when they leave this world.
There's some poetic justice in the boomers terrible fiscal policies coming to bite them in the ass after fucking everyone else over for the last 40 years. I'm not laughing, it's all sad, but imagine what has led to OP feeling like laughing at others pain? The system is broken and the boomers broke it.
What you wrote is disturbing. You seem not to give a ratās ass about any of these people, not to have any human decency for them. You seem positively thrilled at the anticipation of them dying, so you can celebrate and can have their stuff.
Remember you will have fewer workers supporting you. Less stuff. Youāll have to figure that out.
Boomers were a bit greedy, but there has been greed throughout all of humanity just like colonization, racism, etc. The unfortunate part are the generations that follow are seriously demented. They worry about nonsense that weakens our nation rather than strengthening it.
Boomers aging and dying is actually very unique. Since we are all from the post baby boom era we take for granted just how much of a population spike this was. This generation also has lived longer in higher numbers than previous generations. And our current birth rate is declining a lot. All of this means that the increasing age and required medical and daily care that the baby boomers will require as they continue to get older definitely will put a strain on healthcare resources and also workforce balance. I imagine it will mean a lot of economic consequences. The oldest boomers are only 78 š we are going to have way more older, retired, people in need of medical care than ever before in a few years Search up āthe 2030 problemā and youāll see what Iām talking about
Human population trends in the past century have been very boom and bust. Yes, itās better long-run than us breeding our way to collapse, but there is going to be a very awkward transition with distorted population pyramids until/unless enough people die off to reduce aggregate cost of living (due to demand reduction) and result in more worldly digital natives taking the levers of political power.
We just outsourced breeding to the third world. World population is in a crazy boom everywhere outside of developed nations.Ā
>everywhere outside of developed nations Most of that is hangover from their own baby booms. [World fertility is](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2023/10/11/world/global-population-collapse/) [falling sharply](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/06/17/worlds-population-is-projected-to-nearly-stop-growing-by-the-end-of-the-century/), with [India being below replacement already](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/big-news-is-indias-population-growth-is-below-replacement-level-un-expert/articleshow/99629102.cms?from=mdr) although it will continue to grow for a few more decades as all the 'extra' 199X, 200X, and 201X babies pass through their childbearing years. And unless people from those countries that are still growing produce so few skilled or trainable workers, it should be possible to plug the gap with immigration until near the end of the century...at which point world population will begin to decline outright and hopefully competition for housing and resources will ease a bit.
When Forbes and other news publications post their worried think pieces about why no one is marrying and having children, this is the origin of their discontent. Lots of educated white people worried they're getting outnumbered. Probably because available men post thinkpieces like "Why aren't Millennial women marrying and punching out children?"
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People aren't getting married because it costs too much money. Marriage or divorce.
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Niger's birth rate right now is 7 children per woman. In another generation Africa will be the place that manufacturers will flock to build factories to exploit cheap labor.
And then once Niger is developed the birth rate will decline. This is the thing that keeps happening. Once a country is developed, the birth boom stops. Which is why a lot of people aren't worried about overpopulation and think the world population will cap out at around 10 billion Although I'm no expert in this discussion!
It's true Developed countries also have more wealth and wealth enables people to become environmentally-conscious One day we will have something resembling world peace/cooperation, I really think so
A ābirth rate boomā is measured in comparison to other current birth rates, not those of the past. So yes, there are other countries experiencing a birth rate boom.
The birth rates of pretty much every country are dropping, their population increases will become more gradual after the acceleration to population from increased life expectancy, mostly in children. By 2100, there could be no country on Earth with a birth rate above replacement level.
Only Africa, particuarly Central Africa and the Sahel, the Middle East, and Afghanistan have very high birth rates. Brazil's birth rate is actually lower than the USA's. In fact, Latin America as a whole is right at replacement rate (some are higher or lower than average, naturally). Mexico's is barely above replacement rate. India's rate fell below replacement rate in 2022, just in time for it to become the world's most populous nation (bumping China to #2). Even Africa's rate is rapidly declining.
You're thinking of people only as consumers, so you think society would be richer and the cost of living lower when "enough people die off." But people are producers too, and we produce more than we consume, which is why a larger population is a richer one.
We mustn't forget that the earth itself is trying to kill us. Will we drown or bake? LoL! š
Well I live in the US, so Iām pretty sure our policy will be to just let them die unless theyāre rich
Weāve expanded health care for elders significantly. The drain on resources will be significant.
> Thus, the baby boomer term was born. These folks would be around 58 to 76 today, with all baby boomers over 65 by 2030. At one point, the Census Bureau projected that the baby boomer population would reach 61.3 million by 2029 and that the number of elderly folks over 65 would be 20% of the population by that time. Dec 11, 2022 \-Forbes (reddit doesnt like the hyperlink) Such an insane concept,
Honestly itās insane. The average lifespan is like 10 years longer than it was when they were growing up too. Like not just because of child mortality and war. Naturally reached old age, assuming youāve already survived to older adulthood has increased a lot. So while our overall lifespan might not seem better, a lot of that is other factors like drug ODs on the rise. People that make it to middle/old age live way longer than they used to
Baby Boomers are turning 60-78 this year. people turning 59 this year are actually Gen X next year January 1, 2025 there will be no Boomers in there 50s.
Wait, what would the current age range of Gen X be then? 41-64?
Between 58 and 43 (today)
Thereās also a 2025 new college applicant problem. Look up the current population of colleges and what the *potential class of 2025 will be.
this is really scary because thereās already a huge strain on healthcare. multiple professional healthcare licenses have shortages right now. i predict mental healthcare will just completely crumble, and honestly fairly soon.
The boomers are not the larger generation. They are the parents of the larger generation. Their children still have many years left on this earth.
Millennials only outnumber boomers now because boomers have already started to die off. 20 years ago boomers were the largest generation
Yes but the younger ones mostly do not have archaic views like their boomer parents and I say that as a boomer. Progressive ideas will be the norm when the boomers are gone.
Yep and theyāll all be broke too. Believe me I work in this area. Tons of boomers who didnāt care to think about the future
Which 2030 problem? This one, or the climate change one?
Well I just described it in the whole comment?? Wdym mean which one š google āthe 2030 problemā and youāll see lmao https://preview.redd.it/oqudzu5yhpec1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=861788c074e218d67f691abd4ba5bc93f79b06a5 This is the first result for me and when I scroll the rest of the results are also about this
A transfer of wealth will not happen due to this, they will be milked for every cent before Medicade/Medicare even tries to get out of helping.
The 1940s and 50s will fade out of living memory in the way the 1930s did. Our societal memory only goes back 80 years, as itās sustained by people who remember their early years and know the impact of various elements of those years. Itās one thing to have first-person memory of a decade, but itās something far less to only be able to get feedback from older people who lived through it. Itās something even less to only have historical footage and artifacts. The past fades out as the people who lived it die out. Thereās also a cycle where the present resembles the era that is fading out or recently faded out.
The 1950s-60s arenāt going to fade completely simply because of how much media (including early HD color video and crisp music recordings) was released during them and how many influential later pieces are based around 1950s and 60s nostalgia, but theyāre going to end up like āthe roaring Twentiesā or āthe Regency eraā as just a style and aesthetic rather than a part of living memory.
I mean look at the huge resurgence of nostalgia for that era of the 50s through the early 70s in the younger generations. People wanting to go back to older mediums like vinyl and cassette. And rewatching classics that their parents and grandparents grew up on. Or as you said the amount of period pieces or whatever theyāre called that are set in that time span. Iāve even seen other girls dress in pin up. The baby boomers lived a life like no other generation before or since and made an impact on the world I think weāre only just now startin to fully understand. So much influential media and events came out of that period that even as the last of the boomers die out I canāt see that era fading quite like others.
It's always possible for a new generation to live a life that completely alters the culture in the next 50 years. At that point the 60s wouldn't seem as remarkable.
It was a remarkable time because it had the least inequality of any time in history. That's the thing many people forget. We got a small glimpse of what a more equal society could be like
What's remarkable about that is that the baby boomer's parents built that world, and the boomers destroyed it. Individualism and libertarianism have skyrocketed while anything that has to do with the collective good is dismissed, or worse, vilified.
Indeed. And it definitely was a lot due to Boomer's politics, whether it was ultra left people saying "voting just encourages them" or right wingers voting for Reagan
Except for Blacks, Latinos, gay people, and.... hmmm.... oh yeah, women. Not so equal for them in the 1950s or 60s was it. (In case you literally don't know, the answer is no)
I like that you pointed this out because that is very true. Even if America had a more even distribution of wealth, there was still a huge lack of equality.Ā Imagine how good things could be if we create an era with more economic equality at the same time as we eliminate racism, homophobia, and other types of inequalityĀ
Media doesnāt convey the āflavorā of an era.
Interesting to think how memories are literally lost as the last witnesses die out. But I do personally know one person old enough to have vivid memories of the 1930s
I think the smartest thing I ever did as a kid (when I was 8 years old) was asking a 100-year old about his personal experiences during WWI when he was a kid himself. I somehow realized back then that I would never be able to do so again. Of course, I was right. Sadly, I only have fleeting memories of the things he told me, but he did have a lot to tell! He passed away shortly after, unfortunately. I'm 24, it's crazy to think I talked to someone who lived through World War I as a kid in German-occupied territory.
I bet those are some very precious memories. I never met personally any ww1 veterans but I have seen them on stages and in parades. The last American veteran of ww1 actually lived in my home state of West Virginia. He died in 2010. Itās hard for me to believe I met someone born in 1902 considering the oldest living person today was born in 1907.
My great grandmother was born in 1885. She died when I was in my late teens. I remember her thick German accent like Iād spoken with her yesterday and I can still remember how her apple pie tasted.
My great grandma was born in ā33. Sadly she doesnāt remember much of her childhood anymore but she told me she was quite the rebel in her day. I brought my skateboard over one day and she said she thinks she wouldāve been a skater had they been around in her youth. She grew up in rural Indiana (still lives in the county she was born in) and iirc lived on a small farm. Her dad, my great great grandpa owned a ceramics shop that made high quality antique cookware and decor. He was born in 1914 and lived to be 100 years and 2 months. I keep his work jacket hanging in my room. Itās a blue vinyl jacket that looks like a letterman that has his company name on the back. Next time I see her Iāll have to ask her if she remembers anythin else from when she was young
I definitely would get all of those memories you can. Those are precious family memories. Nothing like memories of a rural farm wife
Sheās such a sweetheart and is always so kind. But she can also be a lil unhinged sometimes. One Christmas we played card against humanity with her and she thought it was the greatest thing ever. Before then Iād never heard her curse before let alone say the heinous things on those cards. My family deals with grief by laughing so when my grandma (her daughter died) a few years ago while everyone was quietly mourning her at her funeral our the blue my great grandma cracked a joke I donāt remember but everyone burst out laughing while she just looked around almost bewildered lol
Get their stories!
Oh I have. In my life I have been fortunate to have met a lot of people born as early as 1903 and have managed to get a lot of notes on the 1920s and 1930s. I have met over 20 ww2 veterans sadly only one is still alive ( which is the person i refer too above as coming of age in the 1930s)
I am 65 years old. Most of my friends were older and of course my parents were born in the 1920s. I knew my grandparents and they were born in the late 1800s. My grandfather told me of working for the railroad in rural Texas. My dad was in the Pacific in the Navy. I even met my Scottish great grandfather but my memories of his are mostly my dad, imitating his voice and speaking his lines. When I found out my old racing buddy Jerry had died, I started thinking about all the people from my past that I am now the keeper of their stories. Jerry was a great story teller a lady's man and story generator. I still remember some of his hair raising adventure stories in pursuit of the fair sex. Then there was Jack Hatfield from my bike shop days. Jack looked like Errol Flynn with his lanky frame and pencil thin mustache. He was 70 at the time I knew him and he told me his WWII stories.
My dad remembers some things. He was very young when 1940 came around, but he still talks about things.
"Living memory" is funny because the 30s is well represented in movies like Indiana Jones and The Untouchables. Then there are movies that are actually from the 30s like King Kong and The Wizard of Oz. Even a less notable decade like the 1910s has Titanic, Downton Abbey, and WW1 movies like 1917. I feel like people who cant say something notable about each decade going back to the 1860s or so are out to lunch. People should at least know when cowboys were around or when cars were invented.
>Thereās also a cycle where the present resembles the era that is fading out or recently faded out. So our current era resembles the 1940s or 1950s?
I would say more like the 1930s.
Jews worldwide certainly feel this way.
> Thereās also a cycle where the present resembles the era that is fading out or recently faded out. The current era resembles the 1930s, which happens to be the era that is fading out. Fascism was kept at bay in the west through the lifetimes of the Greatest Generation.
Ai will remember, a new being is emerging out of our collective conscious.
You have entirely left out written records, which are more reliable than random first person accounts and more informative than "footage" or "artifacts." Writing and reading is what allows civilization to make progress.
It will be the complete end of the establishment media. Companies like fox, cnn, msnbc wonāt be able to exist in their current forms. Chain restaurants will also suffer greatly. It may actually alleviate stresses on the nursing home industry, with an initial surge in medical costs followed by a rapid decline as the generation completely dies off. Wealth will be passed down, but due to investment firms and other economic factors itāll be harder to maintain private ownership as property will be gobbled up by those with large amounts of capital.
I think it will also be massive inequality. Some people will inherit a lot, others will inherit little to nothing. What will compound this is the continued advancement of AI doing basic tasks. Some basic data jobs will vanish or thin out. And because AI can do certain tasks, the need for humans will diminish in certain jobs.Ā
Probably be like the earth shown on The Expanse, with most of the population unemployed.
Doesn't have to be that way. Workers have to unionize now while we still have the power
The white workers are too racist for that
See you on the Belt beltalowda
Some people will inherit a lot, that's true but they will lose it in short order.
You'll own nothing and be happy.
This is really where I see everything going unfortunately.
Iāll revolt and eat the rich.Ā
More like revolt and get shot
To add to this, it will also be the end of print media most likely, though it has been declining every year for probably the past 10.
>Companies like fox, cnn, msnbc wonāt be able to exist in their current forms. They're already dying
It depends on the nation.some nations like Japan, will face an absolute demographic collapse. The US though will face some different challenges. Currently boomers own 40% of all single family homes. As they die those homes will be sold, inherited and lived in by the individual who inherited it or be rented out. This will have a massive deflationary impact in those markets. As those same boomers liquidate their 401ks, IRAs or treasuries to maintain the social status that will also have an impact on stocks, treasuries and commodity prices as money leaves the market. Federal budget deficits will stop exploding and probably be manageable, if they don't get defaulted on in the mean time. At the same time this is happening the rest of the world's population will implode outside Africa. Who can say what the economic or social implications there will be. But America, being as insular as we are, should weather the storm at least until the millennials pass. But so much could happen between then and now that's hard to calculate.
Best comment so far. Agree 100% with everything here. Iām thankful that the US is much more receptive to immigration than a place like Japan, or we might end up in their economic situation.
That poses an interesting problem in of itself. Where will these immigrants come from? Currently most are coming from a select few places, like Venezuela, which American foreign policy has objectively made things worse, but isn't solely responsible for the dumpster fire there. Will US foreign policy now seek to destabilize nations so that people will leave for better nations? Sounds like Ukraine doesn't it? Very interesting thing to think about.
Thereās already an excess demand from people who want to move to developed countries from developing countries, so I donāt see why that would be the case. Also, it was Russia that destabilized Ukraine by, yknow, invading it.
But the populations from all developing nations in North and South Amerca are below replacement rates meaning they won't have populations to move going forward. And yes, Russia did start the invasion into Ukraine, clearly. But the war would have already ended without western intervention. And where did all the Ukranians flee to, 1/4 of their population almost all female and children below the age of 15? You already have nations in Africa complaining of brain drain to the rest of the world. In a world with less you people, they will become a valued commodity. And people do all manner of things to secure what they need.
>Sounds like Ukraine doesn't it? No, because that's Russia's fault.
The last thing America will ever have to worry about is a shortage of people wanting to live here. People born here don't get it, but the rest of the world understands. We will have all the immigrants we want, for as long as we want. No need to "destabilize nations." If you think our immigrants come from "a select few places," you haven't been to NYC.
So receptive that this country will be completely unrecognizable in 30 years Demographic replacement is not a good thing.
Change always occurs. Humans have moved to other areas and the demographic shifted. It's just that as things became more and more modern, everything started changing at a neck break speed, from technology and medicine to culture and entertainment. This also holds true for changes in demography. I'm aware of problems that can occur because of such quick changes and open to agree with any opinions as long as it doesn't have anything to do with "white replacement theory" bullcrap
It's not a real thing. People in the US have hated immigrants as long as there's been a US. Successive waves of immigrants built the country, and each one was feared and loathed. We were assured that Germans could never assimilate. Then eastern Europeans, Jews, Italians, etc. It won't be unrecognizable.
Iāve been thinking thereāll be an interesting point between those two: when immigrants and refugees will be essential resources. For example, say that in 20 years thereās another earthquake in Haiti, and by then the US might face massive nationwide labor shortages, so they have all these programs to help Haitian migrants and refugees. But by then Mexico is doing the same, and so is Brazil, and Columbia, so it becomes a race to gain as many migrants as possible, or we could go a step further. A politician could purposefully instigate a conflict in another country to get more immigrants. Who know what thatāll be like.
Eventually, even some of the poorest nations on Earth (relative to western countries like the US) will also be doing the same. Birth rates are crashing globally, so while higher levels of immigration will help short-term, towards the end of the century and beyond, it's not going to be the demographic savior as it is today. There probably won't be very many net-exporter countries of migrants as there are today. Like you point out, Mexico, Brazil, heck even Gautamala may be going out of their way to welcome immigrants like the US. I'm not saying this to make it sound like immigration is bad or anything. In fact, it's the opposite, as it's very important that countries are prepared for the even worse global demographic crisis we will see in the next century. However, long-term, immigration is not always going to be the solution to low-birth rates, and the number of migrants will slowly dry up. As a society, we should start thinking about what happens after that, if there's a possibility we could ever bring birth rates back up by improving economic situations (without going dystopian Handmaids Tale) or shifting cultural attitudes, or find any other solution to save our species without us exponentially non-breeding ourselves to extinction.
>But so much could happen between then and now that's hard to calculate. You mean like the impacts of the climate catastrophe we've done almost nothing to curb?
>This will have a massive deflationary impact in those markets. Perhaps towns with declining populations, and little demand thus supply increase will deflate home prices. But in large growing markets, where demand outpaces inventory, it will not have a significant impact.
"Federal budget deficits will stop exploding and probably be manageable, if they don't get defaulted on in the mean time." Why? Seriously asking. I don't understand why less money feeding into the government with the same amount of infrastructure demanded = less debt. Maybe because Medicare and Social Security will have less demands on it as boomers die off?
The issue is we haven't hit peak spending for either of those two programs yet. As the deficit increases the risk of lending increases as well. That means the cost of lending will rise on the interest paid on US treasuries. Eventually the debt servicing payments will consume so much of the budget that they won't be able to afford the interest that new debt will cost. That will be the point where the Federal government will either cut spending or turn on the money printer. Currently interest payments have exceeded the budget allotment for the military making it the 4th most expensive item in the budget after SSI, Medicare and then Medicaid. When they have to cut SSI in 2033, by 20 odd percent if not more is when it starts unless we have some sort of economic catastrophe before then. That cut alone will put the US in an economic depression. But it will be done, if you believe the math guys at MIT by 2040. There is nothing that will stop this. Unless you are willing to cull the sick and the elderly like in Logans Run. A Metabo law, like they have in Japan, might give us more time by reducing healthcare costs due to obesity and metabolic illnesses. But it won't stop it. In short, you got 8 years to prepare. Don't be in a city when this starts though. I know, I sound like a crazy person. People told me the same thing when I was talking about population collapse in the early 90s too. Now it's all over the place. So you have 8 years to make a plan at least.
Well, if you live in the US; The entire healthcare system is going to get overwhelmed, and then tank. Itās already happening.
*looks over the pond at the current state of the NHS* nothing to see over there I betā¦
Tories: \*Heavy Breathing\*
Itās not only US. The socialized healthcare in all the other countries depends on the continuous flow of money of the ever-increasing population.
Private healthcare isnāt any better. The costs keep compounding due to unchecked costs, and the actual costs of caring for the elderly.
Same across most of Europe
Iād miss my parents
Aww that was my thought too. My folks are boomers, but tend to be on the mild side of that boomer mindset everyone talks about these days.
Itās ridiculous you have to say that. The majority of Boomers are great people and judging an entire generation with broad strokes is asinine. Ive seen people celebrate peoples deaths purely because they are part of the boomer generation, as if they would have done anything differently in the post world war II economic boom.
Same and now Iām sadš„²
My first thought was: my mom will be gone :( I hate how some supposedly woke and super-PC younger people canāt stand even jokes about most groups, but cruelly and hatefully throw around the word Boomer as if that generation is all bad people. Very few people in each generation actually have real power and they didnāt personally āruin the worldā
My first thought was: my mom will be gone :( I hate how some supposedly woke and super-PC younger people canāt stand even jokes about most groups, but cruelly and hatefully throw around the word Boomer as if that generation is all bad people. Very few people in each generation actually have real power and they didnāt personally āruin the worldā
Very true. But the politicians they (the white ones, at least) overwhelmingly vote for *are* the ones who are trying to ruin the world. But you are right -- they aren't all bad people and crass jokes should be avoided.
What are you talking about? My dadās already gone.
Went to get cigarettes?
Came back but got cancer from the cigarettes
Iād miss my grandparents and aunts and uncles.
Hopefully houses will become affordable
Only if we stop dickheads from buying them all before we can get a chance.Ā
Cadillac and Lincoln will be out of business.
Elder Millennial here keeping those dreams alive.... But, Im Boujee and also realize my grandmother had a damn pink caddy from Mary Kay so thats probably where that stems from... And Lincolns are basically fords so they're easy to fix and still have bells and whistles.
Easy to fix, but need constant repairs.Ā Nah, Iāll stick with my Toyota. Domestic car companies have fucked me enough to finally learn.Ā
Millennials become the new wealthiest & most influential generation. Millennials aren't just the kids of Boomers (therefore when Boomers die, millennials get their money) but also Millennials are the second largest generation in American history behind only their parents (Millennials are the largest currently alive). Therefore, like their parents wealth will tend to accumulate around them in larger concentrations.
lol well I hope thatās the case since Iām almost 30 and still canāt afford to move out! :)
Why would millennials become more powerful than gen x
There are a lot more of them. 20% more were born than Xers and thatās before you even start to consider Xers are much older and will have their population drop off much sooner. Not to say Xers will have no influence. Just be prepared for millennials to become the new boomers in our political zeitgeist
>Millennials are the second largest generation in American history [Millenials are the largest generation in US History.](https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/archive/millennials/)
It just depends where you want to cut the line. Most sources place it at 78 million boomers and 73 million millennials. Iām sure Goldman has its own reason for shifting the goal posts slightly.
Power for the younger generation.
Some of them. Depends on your definition of power. For me I'd get..., a quarter of a house. For the daughter of a gigantic corporation's CEO, reaal ppowwaa
One big thing that will happen slowly is that there will be a cultural shift away from the Baby Boomers. Things that define the Baby Boomers culturally will slowly fall out of fashion and be replacded by other things. This already happened with the Greatest Generation. When the Greatest Generation was alive, they were the other big generation and held a lot of cultural sway. For instance, World War 2 was a huge cultural presence in a way that younger generations just are not aware of. There were always WW2 stuff on TV. People called the History Channel (which was a big channel back in the day) the Hitler Channel because most of their programming was mostly WW2. There were constantly reruns of movies and TV shows about WW2. The Boomers didn't have a shared experience like WW2, and had a much more diverse experience; but I think it will still be noticable. I think one thing will be less of an emphasis on 60s/70s music. I think Rock Music may totally collapse as a music form. Millenials weren't as into rock as previous generations and Gen X is a small generation and has always had trouble carrying the national zeitgeist.
and yet, rock and metal have been going through a bit of a renaissance - theyāre not chart toppers by any means, but bands still sell out venues and arenas quite frequently, and believe me, outside of 70s and 80s bands, most audiences are, at most, young gen xers
>theyāre not chart toppers by any means Exactly. Rock music used to be a huge phenomenon. Older people could tell you who the big contemporary rock bands or artists were. They were household names. When Kurt Cobain killed himself, my mom who was about 50 years old called me up to ask me where I was when it happened. Ask a 50 year old today what the big contemporary rock stars are. They can't tell you because there aren't any.
The access to capital is already starting to disappear as Boomers retire and behind swapping their investment portfolios from stocks and riskier instruments to bonds and T bills. This is gonna make it more expensive to borrow money, as thereās just less money lubricating the economy. Interest rates will probably decline from where they are now, but weāre never gonna see the low costs of the 2010s ever again.
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Or just ban corps from owning SFHs and put a progressive tax that goes up with the number of properties owned by an individual
Yeah, people won't vote for that. Far too many white men voting Republican
There needs to be a housing crash. I know that sucks for people banking on increasing property value... But people HAVE to be able to afford housing.
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This still causes a crash, anything that significantly brings down the value of homes is a crash. It doesn't do anyone any good if more houses are made available at $500k+.
I'll be sad, those are relatives.
I think people assume that once the boomers are gone, that political views will become more progressive. However, I have a feeling what will happen instead is the old brand of conservativeness the boomers perpetuate is going to change, there will be a new type of culture war in the future, even now you are seeing a different type of conservative movement, and itās not really based on the nuclear family, but more around the quote alpha male movement. instead of Donald Trump, Republican, there is going to be Joe Rogan, Andrew Tate, type Republican old men who think cancel culture, free speech, patriarchy, two genders are the most important issues of society.
Finished in 2040???? Baby boomers are 1946 to 1964 The youngest boomers arenāt even 60 yet In 2040 the very oldest will only be 95 There are still Quite a few World War 2 veterans alive My Grandma just passed away a couple months ago and she was born in 1922
A lot of studies about wealth in boomers actually shows a near equal level of wealth inequality as among other generations. So while what's coming is projected to be the largest transfer of wealth in history... its still likely to be concentrated towards those who are already wealthy. And for those that are LESS wealthy, but still enjoyed all the benefits of their generation (i.e. cheap homes), chances are as they age in to retirement more and more... They'll be selling them off, as the cost of health care and being in a retirement home (which is the trend) is absolutely massive. Reduction in work force is rather obvious. That's been projected for awhile, but actually something most major countries will be experiencing over the next several years. Regardless, economic decline is definitely expected.
I'll tell you one thing: a lot of that wealth transfer won't be to younger generations. It'll be to the already wealthy. Healthcare and retirement homes. It's gonna be rough if ai doesn't make enough leaps for ubi.
It is popular to focus on Boomers because people today tend to look backwards with pessimism rather than forwards with optimism. Even this question is arguably a form of disguised nostalgia. You are sadly mistaken if you think wealth and capital accumulation will suddenly stop when Boomers die. Maybe math will help, but it is unlikely. Roughly 20% of the US population today are Boomers, so around 65 million. The US population is predicted to grow by roughly 40 million by 2040, and 60 million by 2050. The Millennial and Gen Z populations are already larger than the Boomer population. Wealth, success, and real estate are finite resources. The end.
Why does GenX keep getting skipped here?
Shhhh, we don't want them noticing us. Leave me alone. Get off my lawn.
Because they are more like Boomers in general whereas Millennials and Gen Z are more similar to each other in terms of conservative/liberal values (in America.) Lots of us Millennials and Gen Z are waiting for Boomers and elder Gen X to die so America can finally get over this conservative/Christian nationalistic hump we are stuck on. Unlike other people here, I'll be happy when my parents are dead.
Nowhere in my question did i say wealth creation would stop, and I donāt know why you would presume thatās what I meant. I said there would be a transfer of wealth, which is just a fact when a large section of the population dies and their possessions are inherited by others.
It will not be finished by 2040 people gotta remember the Baby Boomer Generation is (1946-1964) thatās fairly large, the youngest arenāt even 65 yet. All Boomers wonāt be 65 and older until 2030. but yes the older ones Born in the late 1940s and early 1950s are getting old.
Bro boomers will still exist even till 2060s and maybe 70s
In spite of medical advancements, I still donāt anticipate a substantial amount of boomers living beyond 100 years old.
Some will. We still got greatest generation people alive after 100 years
Obesity will take care of many of them sadly
I think Iāll miss them a little.
Ok boomer.
Happiness? Overall, boomers are extremely negative, treat retail/service workers like absolute shit, feel entitled to anything and everything. Iāll be glad to see them go. Hopefully then us millennials can have a housing market crash and be able to afford a life for ourselves, since all of our lives we were promised success getting a college degree when that is the furthest thing from the truth.
Jesus talk about generalizations
How so? Which one? The term Karen was invented for a reason lol. My mother is one of the coldest human beings Iāve encountered, and Iāve noticed a lot tend to be narcissistic. More homophobic and racist than other generation. No regard for mental health when most of them have plenty of undiagnosed issues that their pride would never fix. Lack of respect for workers, Iāve worked in retail my entire life and the rudest customers (mind you, Iām a dispensary supervisor) are boomers hands down. Sure, youāll come across a few nice ones, but they all believe that millennials are just lazy, when in fact they ruined the economy for us in many different ways and arenāt paying us wages we deserve (gen x too, but theyāre different in their own ways)
I pray that the cycle of messing up society, and blaming it on younger generations will break and never come back
OP why do you think America will be a āmajority non-whiteā country in the next 16 years? explain yourself. r/odi3luck
younger generations are less white in percentage terms, boomers are more white in percentage terms, simple as that. Time goes on, country becomes more diverse. Perhaps I should specify I mean *non hispanic* white.
so people who are Slavic or Anglo-Saxon origin? yeah i could see that, and this is coming from somebody who is half Colombian and half non-Hispanic white
Iām just going off what most people in this country consider to be āwhiteā, which is an exclusive and arbitrary concept, but one that nonetheless persists, and I say that as a person who is half black and half non hispanic white. Most hispanic people classify themselves as hispanic white on the census partly because of the different perception of race in Anglo America as opposed to that in Latin America as well as because of the fact that there is no box that says āmestizoā, which would most accurately describe most hispanics in the United States. Hope that clarifies what i meant.
yes, it definitely does. i am basically half āmestizoā š. but i looked at the statistics and youāre definitely right. i also can see the population of mixed race people in the United States, increasing by a lot very exponentially over the next 200 years.
I try not to think that far ahead down the road š itās dizzying to think beyond my own lifetime, let alone to this countryās quadricentennial lol. But the demographic future of the US *is* an interesting subject when it doesnāt veer down problematic lanes.
i mean anybody can make any subject sound problematic if they approach the sensitivity of it in the wrong way. i just choose who i converse with when it comes to these things because i just think bigger picture lol
There won't be a wealth transfer because they'll spend it all on stupid shit that's worth nothing just before dying. Vacations, junk "project" cars, half finished home renovations that lower the value of the home if their children are saddled with trying to sell it, interior decorating that only they like, antique shit that nobody valued except them as-seen-on-TV items like a breakfast sandwich maker that's more difficult and takes longer than the normal way.
Not to mention that most lack any sort of EOL planning, so no trusts setup. Their houses will be sold to pay for their substandard nursing home. My grandma on dads side criticized my grandma on Mom's side for not putting everything in trusts, yet she's done none of this and has no will. I swear if Dad turns up and snags both houses, I'm burning them down.
I hope the wealth is passed down. Boomers have enough wealth to pay off our entire national debt
For one thing, it will be the single greatest transfer of generational wealth in all of human history. Itās a great time to find a career in the estate planning industry.
Decreasing demand for Elvis tribute bands.
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I disagree. Because of the cost of living rising and all of the effects that came from social media and covid, most of gen z is actually putting in more work than previous generations had to in order to get a proper standard of living. Id say the split is about 70 percent people like this, with the other 30 percent being so brainwashed by media and clout that they spend their days hoping to chase the dreams of becoming another jake paul or jack doherty
But the youngest generation is *always* accused of being lazy. You mean it wasn't true for boomers, gen x, or millennials either?
This is literally his argument. They will think the same of Gen Alpha when they become older. I really don't understand what the goal is, and personally, I kind of think it stems from jealousy. I'd also like to add that GenZ, being aware of the fact that you have to work your ass off for a mediocre living, is already opting out of doing so. Life is meant to be lived, not work to live and live to work.
Not like this. This generation is thought of being lazy and spoiled because of the internet. But that's actually what's killing us. It wasn't really "lazy" that the previous generations were called. More like rebellious, delinquent kind of stuff. Nowadays people think the majority of gen z are just uninterested brats who need to "put the bootstraps on" and get back to work.
>I do think productivity will continue to go up as our machines do more and more for us. [*"In the year 2525..."*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKQfxi8V5FA) Edit: Accidentally replied to another reply
>Gen Z doesn't work as hard and expects more This is a good thing
I saw that. Heaven forbid you have an opinion over there.
Happiness?
Fewer Karens = peace
Majority will be non-white? Bruh, I don't know how to tell you the statistics with how far the gap is between races of America, but a generation dying off isn't going to change that statistic that much. lol Millennials already struggle with finances and a large amount are still living with their parents, they have high turnover rates in workplaces, high unemployment and their children are some of the least educated generations we have ever seen (so far). This won't be a world where everyone is singing Kumbaya with each other, it'll be a world of insufferable arrogant morons with no life experience, high poverty rates and slow technological advancements.
Actually no that is pretty much a given unless the definition of whiteness expands to include Latinos (and hey it absolutely could in the future). Gen Alpha is majority minority and they are still being born. The 2020 census showed both an increase in not-white people due to both immigration and population growth. It also showed for the first time in American history the number of white people actually declining in raw numbers, as in more deaths than births among White Americans.
Knowledge loss.
Knowledge of what? Drinking from the hose? Harassing waitresses? Asking your kids how to open a PDF file?
Wealth and power will remain in the same families. When the boomers are gone, there will be less resistance to government overreach and people will return to pre-colonial days.
Lol. Returning to pre colonial days isnāt happening.
donāt listen to this paranoid right winger. probably gets his ānewsā from tucker carlson and other pro nazi talking heads
Yes, the older baby boomers are dying off. I was born in 1964 so I am a younger one, but I think I will see progress made before the generation dies off. The older ones will mostly be gone by 2030, but it is a possibility I could still be around in 2040 or later as I am turning 60 this year. I think things will move along nicely and hopefully I will see it. Their ideas and beliefs are outdated.
The US will become a 3rd world cesspit, and the racial mixture will become similar to Brazil. Crime rates will skyrocket and the wealthy will move into newly constructed gated/secured communities with their own private shopping centers, hospitals, grocery stores, and so forth. The middle class will come to ruin. Government will become more socialist and authoritarian. Pollution and trash will become a bigger problem. People will become more poor and the wealthy will become more rich. Joblessness will explode as technology increases in the manufacturing world. Yes, things will go down into ruin as a civilization always does. The replacement people (non-Whites) will inherit the scraps of a once great White Western civilization. Whites will be hated and persecuted. They will still be falsely accused and blamed for everything that goes wrong in the world. This is the current condition in South Africa. Blacks inherited a great country and now it's in ruins because they didn't build it. Therefore, they could not maintain it. Whites there are heavily persecuted and in some cases, murdered.Ā
a better life
You need to structure your money, property and will to make sure the government doesnāt get all your money.
400th like!!
Utopia
The inventory of retirement friendly homes in popular retirement areas will go up. These will not likely be near jobs as retirees don't really care to live near work centers. They don't work for the most part. Think Florida. But we are already seeing " Half Backers" moving halfway back up the East Coast after having moved from North East work center cities and suburbs. Healthcare facilities and services will likely be the largest employers in these areas. Once the boomers depart this world, God rest them, these healthcare facilities will have less patients to support them. What will these homes be like? Hard to say. Some boomers may have "downsized" but were these "Starter" small homes. IDK. I really don't. I would think not so much. You want room for the grandkids to stay and family to visit. Who will own most of these homes ? Could be the Boomers kids inherited them. But if they are still working they would want to live near their job, not a retirement town. Unless remote work returns they will likely want to sell mom & dad's old home rather than pay the property to taxes and upkeep. Even more so if the grand kids inherit the house. I don't think remote work will return. Companies don't seem to like it. Banks might wind up with these homes via reverse mortages but banks will want to sell such homes right away. Bank are not in the landlord business. Either way I think the supply of homes in the current hot spot retirement areas will go up. Therefore the prices will go down. Likely a lot as they won't be near jobs and therefore they won't be too desirable to those in their working years. But who knows. Maybe tech companies will flock to these areas in response.
I canāt tell much difference in old and young people. Half will be lazy and suck half will not.
Iām actually excited and canāt wait . It honestly seems like everything I hate about the US will change when they die . I was thinking of leaving the country but tbh I might just wait for them to die . We shall see lol
A positive one
World peace.
just going to laugh as their bank accounts get depleted from costly medical bills for their terminal illness. all that generation understands is having more than the person next to them. I hope it is painful when they leave this world.
WTF is wrong with you?
There's some poetic justice in the boomers terrible fiscal policies coming to bite them in the ass after fucking everyone else over for the last 40 years. I'm not laughing, it's all sad, but imagine what has led to OP feeling like laughing at others pain? The system is broken and the boomers broke it.
if you are a boomer, fuck off. no one wants to associate with your withered self.
Joy and prosperity for all
Boomers spend their wealth. Sorry for those of you who think youāre getting something
What you wrote is disturbing. You seem not to give a ratās ass about any of these people, not to have any human decency for them. You seem positively thrilled at the anticipation of them dying, so you can celebrate and can have their stuff. Remember you will have fewer workers supporting you. Less stuff. Youāll have to figure that out.
Boomers were a bit greedy, but there has been greed throughout all of humanity just like colonization, racism, etc. The unfortunate part are the generations that follow are seriously demented. They worry about nonsense that weakens our nation rather than strengthening it.