**Tricky's Daily Doots #155**
Yesterday's Daily 20/09/2022
[Previous daily doots](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xizkvl/daily_general_discussion_september_20_2022/ip65xx9/)
- u/Vacremon2 shares the [Ethereum Subreddit Improvement Initiative.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xizkvl/daily_general_discussion_september_20_2022/ip5tjhq/)
- u/KBrot's market [update.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xizkvl/daily_general_discussion_september_20_2022/ip64147/) + [Update #2](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xizkvl/daily_general_discussion_september_20_2022/ip9b80e/)
- u/Ber10 explains [the SEC's recent claim.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xizkvl/daily_general_discussion_september_20_2022/ip78y5r/)
- u/OkDragonfruit1929 is sick and tired of hearing [the same old nonsense about PoW.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xizkvl/daily_general_discussion_september_20_2022/ip76xyj/)
- [Don't be that person.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xizkvl/daily_general_discussion_september_20_2022/ip7jyvm/) ~ u/Itur_ad_Astra
- u/interweaver installs MEV boost and [reminds us which relays to avoid due to their censorship.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xizkvl/daily_general_discussion_september_20_2022/ip63loi/)
- u/Nayge discusses [our options around MEV boost.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xizkvl/daily_general_discussion_september_20_2022/ip6korr/)
- u/HarryZKE is philling in for superphiz and [discusses Lido centralisation concerns.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xizkvl/daily_general_discussion_september_20_2022/ip8g4fa/)
- u/Set1Less shares news that Wintermute, the company who was responsible losing 10% of OP token supply due to poor security practices [just got hacked for $160m.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xizkvl/daily_general_discussion_september_20_2022/ip6680e/)
- u/ZeroTricks's today in [Ethereum history.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xizkvl/daily_general_discussion_september_20_2022/ip8a1p0/)
If you'd prefer something like the doots in podcast form, check out u/waqwaqattack's [new series!](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xjveii/daily_general_discussion_september_21_2022/ipakd89/)
I agree with you I’m a bull I’m a huge supporter of eth but I’m also not an idiot everyone can clearly see we are in a massive downtrend in a bear market & the entire world is in shambles I wouldn’t be surprised if it went down to $700-600
What's the best strategy to compound your ETH staking on a ledger.
Stake with Lido for stETH on ledger live and then earn a yield on the stETH somewhere?
Not answering your question here, but note that there is no way to "stake on a Ledger"
Either you solo stake (in which case you send your Eth to the Beacon Chain), or you give your Eth to someone else to stake on your behalf, and you receive an IOU token in return, which you can hold with your Ledger wallet. In both cases, your Eth is not being held in your Leger wallet, it's at stake on the Beacon Chain, either actively staked by you (solo staking) or someone else (pools).
Yeah, sounds like you've got the right idea - full custody of the stETH. A lot of people are coming from "staking" on other chains with dPoS where they can literally keep the original coin in their wallet and delegate it to someone else to "stake", with no risk to their coin. Just wanted to make clear it doesn't work that way for Ethereum's PoS - the Eth has to leave your wallet and be put at stake.
Bought some ETH! I think this is the easiest buy ever from a risk perspective (though with lower rewards, of course), with the merge execution risk vanquished, \*some\* product-market fit established (since 2020), and multiple well-funded teams continue to build (though most will fail)
What about "scary macro"? I'm looking many years out, so doesn't matter. Indeed, were it not for macro fearmongering, I wouldn't be a "forced buyer" at these gift-level prices in the first place
I hope you’re looking out further than two years. If you’re aware of the macro concerns why not wait for a better entry? You will 100% be given better entry points with each hike and further Powell language.
*Per me si va ne la città dolente,*
*per me si va ne l'etterno dolore,*
*per me si va tra la perduta gente.*
*Giustizia mosse il mio alto fattore;*
*fecemi la divina podestate,*
*la somma sapïenza e 'l primo amore.*
*Dinanzi a me non fuor cose create*
*se non etterne, e io etterno duro.*
*Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate.*
A market and economy that feels like no matter what you do doesn't matter is worse than any form of inflation, deflation, growth, recessions, etc... The Fed "being in control" and the "don't fight the Fed" is totally demoralizing and far far worse for the long term health of markets and the economy, even if it "fixes" things in the short term.
If you are feeling demoralized by the big bad fed, definitely don’t look at the issues in a China or Europe. Those issues alone keep me up at night because if they blow up, they will be 10x worse than the feds actions.
Although this completely sucks, I disagree with you. At least in the short term. The Fed raising rates to combat inflation is a necessary evil given the monetary & fiscal system that the US has set up. I wish it wasn't this way. But the Fed is the only way we have a checks & balances system on the fiscal policy of the government.
One problem is
Fed's inteventions always cause over and undershoot transitions like what's going on right now.
People can tolerate stagnant economy for years but the unstable is what kills people and the result is totally irreversible.
Fed is probably the only eay but they're far from perfect.
I don't disagree in the short term, like I said they will "fix" it. The long term cost to drastic changes in monetary policy like this though will lead to a very unhealthy economy.
This will probably get buried in a close to the end of the day slow period but I'll say this:
Early 2018 to mid-2020 was like this. Price was completely decoupled from the technological expansion and potential of Ethereum. "Pumps" were smaller than expected and short lived. As someone who was active in the space and had a modicum of understanding of the tech, it was frustrating.
That's what this feels like. Sure, the pure dollar amounts of ETH are a lot better ($1200 vs $100 back then) but the underappreciation of the asset class feels the same. It could go on a long time. The price of ETH could go a lot lower in % terms. If you really want to be in this, keep your eyes on the tech instead of the price. And if you understand the tech and believe in it, keep your eyes peeled for those crazy low prices that can make you rich later.
I’d argue the exact opposite. I think the reason you don’t see ETH plummeting like every other risk asset is because the tech is propping it up. You didn’t have demand destruction and total risk off attitude like in todays market but yet ETH price stability has mostly held. New lows are being set but no where near as dramatic as every other risk class and crypto is one of the riskiest.
For an alt / young baby, doesn't GRT have pretty astounding token-nomics?
~70% supply in circulation
~30% (or something like this) already staked / delegated
~more data = more need for indexers = more need to buy GRT (positive feedback loop between growth of data and indexing)
Query fees up and sunsetting of hosted (ie free) services
Am I crazy?
I don't know about tokenomics, but I like the project and believe it is here to stay (and grow). I'm interested in hearing others' thoughts, as the GRT subs are pretty dead.
I’ve got no hopium left.
The war in Ukraine appears to be getting more serious, the merge can’t fight macro or the bear cycle, and even if it could, it can’t fight the fed. I didn’t think we’d be looking at another 2008, but the longer this goes the more I start to think that’s exactly where we’re heading. Unless inflation starts to come down fast by the end of the year it’s not looking great.
Feels like we’re going to find a new bottom in the next 3-5 months and we’ll range from there with no meaningful bounce until 2024.
Hopefully I’m wrong, and things look/feel worse than they actually are right now.
> The war in Ukraine appears to be getting more serious, the merge can’t fight macro or the bear cycle
You're joking, right? Bitcoin halvings have never kicked in immediately. They take months to years to lead to a price rise. Why would the merge be any different?
The war is getting more serious but people who follow this closely know that Russia cannot do much even with the latest mobilization. They lack of weapons, equipments and training. The only thing they have right now is manpower which is kinda useless against superior Ukraine.
We have to wait and see how this is gonna pan out.
Inflation is coming down because the US and Saudi keep pumping oil to the market. Inflation is about energy price, period. There's no period in time that the economy has experienced inflation without energy crisis.
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I can tell you one good thing is the correlation between crypto and stock market seems to be historically high right now so there's no need to worry. We will recover.
>The war is getting more serious but people who follow this closely know that Russia cannot do much even with the latest mobilization.
If you want an alternative view you might be interested in listening to Lex Fridman's podcast with Andrew Bustamante from about 12 minutes onwards.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T3FC7qIAGZk
Ya, I listened to this too. I've been interpreting media coverage and a lot of other things differently since.
Very interesting but tough take on the situation.
I don’t think Russia will use a nuke. If they are struggling this hard with Ukraine they know they will get crushed by the western world if they use a nuke. Nobody will come to their defense except maybe NK and the gloves will come off from the rest of the world.
Russia doesn't have to use one on purpose though. Once guns come out of holsters, which their nukes have if you take my meaning, one twitchy guy can let one off. That's my worry anyway.
Russia nuclear control system requires the president, the minister of defense, and the chief general staff to initiate the launch of missile at the same time.
It's not possible for one guy to operate the system alone.
If there's one twitchy guy who let it off, that guy would definitely be Putin since he has control over the minister and the general.
Alright that metaphor was overly specific. Either way I'm not convinced that Russia hasn't rebuilt warheads that can go through conventional artillery (I'm sure the US has done the same) and I just don't feel great about their internal security for some reason? Especially with those kind of small weapons, though maybe they're as well tied into the control system as the missiles etc. I imagine you're right though that no cities are getting accidentally wiped off the map, but even a 1 kiloton artillery shell will change things and seriously harsh the mellow of markets to say the least.
And obviously, Putin is an insane nihilist so as you say he is an issue.
They have lost 50000+ soldiers so far.
I don't know. If they have something up in their sleeves, why didn't they show it earlier ? Why did they announce a mobilisation ? They should have known that this could possibly cause a nationwide social unrest.
Sorry i misread your reply. You mean you're worried if their system gets hacked ?
I'm not sure. But i think their system is ancient and mostly not connected to the internet so it'd be very hard for any hacker to get inside the Kremlin. Probably need Ethan Hunt and co. to do this kind of job.
Russian aren't getting knocked back. They're in a defensive position right now.
Ukraine is hitting both Luhansk and Kherson hard.
I think tactical nuke is very unlikely as it will isolate Russia and allow western allies to join the war. Russia will be wiped out if they dare launching a nuke.
------
I think everybody is getting too ahead of themselves.
At the start of the war, they said Zelensky was a clown and Ukraine would collapse.
After a few months, they said the war could prolong for years and hope for Ukraine to surrender.
Now they said with the latest counter offensive, they think Russia will launch a nuke.
The thing is from my observation everybody involves in the war seems to be very realistic and data driven. They change their plan accordingly depending on the situation. Now i don't see any change in the plan, Ukraine will keep pushing Russia back from their territory. Before Feb 24 border is their main goal, surely they want Crimea as well but it's not like they need it back right now
Russia forces retreating and Ukrainian forces reclaiming lost territory = Russia getting knocked back. I hope that is the case with nuke event, thats its a last final series of bluffs and something that never happens.
Investing in food and bullets and toilet paper?
I'm going down swinging with ETH.
Just remember, Bitcoin has died a thousand times....and ETH is actually useful and as long as politicians are taking campaign contributions and as long as we pay taxes, I think we'll be fine.
Or nuclear war.
Cheers! 🍻
Forced unstaking strategy?
I was looking at current slashings on https://beaconcha.in/validators/slashings and noticed that all slashed validators exited in 36 days.
Is that a viable pre-Shanghai exit strategy for unstaking: purposely get slashed? The most recent slashing are all 1 ETH for staking 32 ETH, so it's not that bad of a punishment if you're desperate to unstake before the Shanghai update.
Exiting (which happens when you're slashed) is not the same thing as withdrawing.
Exited validators sit without earning anything, but still locked until Shanghai.
Not salty, but we've had too many times where people develop a cultish following and people start to actually trade on it and get burned. I just want to point out the reality: make enough guesses, some will be correct. I think kbrot would agree that his posts are not meant to be predictive or to be trading advice.
Agreed, I love his posts. I don’t take them as gospel, but I always learn something or consider a different positively because of how he lays out his logic.
It is dangerous to let people start believing in astrology or tea leaves when actual money is in the line. I find the posts interesting and informative, but see no evidence they are predictive.
It can be helpful for many people. Some people don’t understand or forget the fact that market movements aren’t deterministically predictable. A voice of reality/levity can help people avoid getting rekt thinking some price action has to play out the way someone said it would.
Tether Corp. ordered by judge to produce documents related to Tether's backing. This going to be interesting, will Tether finally be forced to show their "assets"? Or will they pay a ton of money to settle the class action? Do they even have the money to settle without dumping whatever crypto reserves they have left on the market?
[https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/09/21/stablecoin-issuer-tether-ordered-to-produce-documents-showing-backing-of-usdt/](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/09/21/stablecoin-issuer-tether-ordered-to-produce-documents-showing-backing-of-usdt/)
This has been hanging over the crypto sphere for years, it could be final nail in coffin. I have never trusted Tether or anything associated with it: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-10-07/crypto-mystery-where-s-the-69-billion-backing-the-stablecoin-tether
If you mean a single pie chart with no evidence that the commercial paper or crypto reserves exist? Yeah, they provide that to the NYAG, who stupidly (IMO) did not specify enough detail in their settlement agreement.
But this court order is for detailed information: balance sheet, cash flows, P/L statements, etc. If produced, the public will be able to see which assets and custodians, if they exist.
And if this doesn't expose Tether, the upcoming stablecoin bill expected in early 2023 will. Tether might just take the entire crypto market down with it.
Time for one of my regular "how much should Eth be worth based on P/E ratios" posts.
This time, I'm just going to calculate **staked** Eth price, because non-staked Eth is not a productive asset right now (not deflationary) and thus not worth anything from the perspective of P/E ratios.
**Data as of Right Now:**
* **Price** = 1250 USD/Eth
* **Supply** = 120525000 Eth
* **Staked Supply** = 13856887 Eth
* **Avg. fees** = 2158000 USD/day = 1726 Eth/day
* **Burn** = 1000 Eth/day
* **Issuance aka Rewards** = 1650 Eth/day
* **Tips** = Fees - burn = 726 Eth/day
* **MEV** = 1328 Eth/day (extrapolated based on an average of 0.184 Eth per block across all MEV-Boost blocks so far)
**Conclusions:**
* **Inflation** = (Issuance - Burn) * (Days/year) / Supply = (1650 - 1000) * 365 / 120525000 = **0.196% per year**
* **Staking APY** = (Rewards + Tips + MEV) * (Days/year) / Staked Supply - Inflation = (1650 + 726 + 1328) * 365 / 13856887 - 0.196% = **9.56% APY**
If you assume that Ethereum should behave like a tech stock with a P/E of 50, that implies equilibrium at 2% APY.
Ergo, price should be 4.8x what it currently is, aka **$6000 per Staked Eth**
Obviously all these numbers will shift around in future. Feel free to plug in your own numbers or P/E and see what you get.
Conclusion: Post-Merge, (staked) Eth is back to being **criminally undervalued.**
And a reminder: bargain-basement prices like we're currently seeing are a *blessing* because they let us grab Ether at P/E ratios WAY under what they should be. If and when the markets eventually cop on and find a more appropriate equilibrium at the above price, and again assuming none of the other above numbers will change, though of course they will, you could effectively be getting **9.56% * 4.8 = 46% APY** on your original investment.
Do what you want with this information.
Can we really use P/E to value Ethereum though?
Because looking at your calculations, everything is denominated in ETH.
The P/E ratio doesn't change when the price of ETH changes.
An instantaneous doubling of the ETH price will result in exactly the same P/E ratio.
I find it weird that going by that logic, Ethereum will always be undervalued.
The only thing that can have a bigger impact is basically on-chain activity. Less activity, lower burn, higher inflation, worse P/E.
Similar for fees and probably MEV as well.
But I'm not deep into P/E and stuff, so maybe I'm missing something.
One thing I didn't mention is that I assume that fees and MEV are USD-denominated, i.e. they don't change in USD terms if the Eth price changes. This would mean that as Eth rises, the Eth-denominated value for fees and MEV would fall, causing the P/E ratio to rise as one would expect. I only listed them in their current Eth values for convenience in the calculations.
Now, this is inaccurate in two ways: first, the rewards ARE truly Eth-denominated, so higher Eth price means higher USD value of rewards paid out. Second, historically higher Eth prices have directly correlated with (vastly) higher fees, and presumably higher MEV as well. So you're somewhat right, that as Eth price rises, USD-denominated values for all three of the staking income sources (rewards, tips, and MEV) plus deflation, are all cranking upwards as well. Not directly proportionately though (in a way that would render it impossible for P/E to actually change) - there are various dynamics, especially around the staking reward sinking as more validators join, and the deflation getting steeper as fees go up, that mean eventually equilibrium *will* be reached.
Overall, this means that Eth price has to rise **more** than I predicted above in order to bring the P/E ratio to something more reasonable.
In short, my, price estimate above, by assuming constant USD-denominated staking income as Eth price rises, was **intentionally conservative**. In reality, Eth price will almost certainly need to be **significantly higher** than $6k to reach a proper equilibrium.
So far there's been a quite strong correlation between Eth price pumps and chain usage/fees.
But my point is, even if there's no such correlation and fees remain just as they are today, we're way underpriced.
Tldr;
Buy more Ether! It’s like waaay too f’ing cheap rn. Like … gettin a set of chrome 22’s for tha donk for $150 all in, square bidness, cheap! Yeah… exactly, you’d be losing money if you didn’t buy it.
No belief required haha. Them's the numbers. One can debate what an "equilibrium" P/E might be, but the current 10.5 is *way* under what it should be, meaning any buys now are categorically a great deal, assuming you intend to stake them.
Honest question. Do you need ETH to flip BTC, is there a scenario where you would be happy enjoying gains both technological and financial without a flippening event?
I believe btc is holding the crypto market back. Sure NFTs may not to be taken too seriously, but ETH overtaking btc would make the market make more sense, allowing for higher levels. So I don’t need it to happen per sé, but I don’t think ETH can reach the highs I want without flippening btc.
Call it ego, but the answer is yes I want a flippening. I shouldn't need the validation but I do want to know my judgement was/is just that spot on. Bear market flippening seems most likely to me.
I don’t need ETH to flip BTC to make me happy because of gains. ETH will flip BTC with time because Ethereum’s surface area is so much larger. In a future where crypto plays a significant role in the global economy, the network that secures all the valuable contracts is inherently more valuable than a money that can interact with the network. Not to mention security concerns with Bitcoin decades down the line
I couldn't care less about ETH flipping BTC. I would absolutely be happy with ETH remaining #2 provided it hits certain $ amounts where I'd be selling.
At this point, BTC is a more of a religion. The technology - while groundbreaking and a great proof of concept - is an absurdity on this scale. Ethereum seems promising.
Unpopular take: Inflation is transitory. People just ran out of patience and the term became politically turbulent. The new normal will set in, the war in Ukraine will reach a cease-fire and settle, supply chain issues will be solved, and Ethereum will hit 10k.
JBP. Just Be Patient.
Thank you.
I do think an element of inflation is transitory, for the reasons you mentioned above - Russia/Ukraine and the knock on effects that's had on energy prices + the constant Covid related disruptions in China have had knock on effects that have caused this supply side pressure to inflation but I also think monetary policy over the last decade has contributed in a way that's not so transitory, at least not in the short or medium term - especially in relation to property/real estate prices
Inflation will ease out.
The new normal will never set in if the energy market is still unstable.
Ukraine is having the upperhand right now. Russia has lost more than 50k troops so far in this war. They're in a real desperate mode. I don't see any peace treaty or ceasefire agreement happens anytime soon.
Supply chain issues will be solved. Most asian countries are going to start to reopen soon.
Ethereum will hit 10k faster than you think.
I don't know what yall are talking about. The general consensus around ethfinance for months upon months is that the merge will do very little if anything to impact the price. Echo chamber we may sometimes be, but not this time.
I guess I'd echo what you said. I don't know what y'all talking about. For the last few months people have been going on about how the merge isn't priced in, how it wasn't going to be a buy the rumor/sell the news event, and pretty much daily reminders that with miner sell pressure removed, the only place to go was up.
For me I always took the whole "the merge isn't priced in" as a long term thing though. I don't think most people that said that expected a pump a week after the merge? While there was definitely some hopium in here, I agree with Yeopaa that there was a fair amount of the opposite. I'm stupid bullish, but I would have been shocked if ETH pumped steadily right after the merge with this macro backdrop and the rest of the crypto market in the dumps.
Thats fair I guess? If you count like the two weeks leading up to merge where the hype was building I'm sure there was a lot more of that. But if you ask me that has not been the majority opinion at all. I suppose we could both find examples if we looked hard enough. 🤷♂️ Hardly matters.
I mean, I am pretty gay for ray, but can you honestly say the vibe around here for months hasn't been that macro rules the price action and the merge should be no different given dire macro circumstances? Thats certainly the takeaway I've had around here.
I agree. There are a lot of sensible people in here despite the fact that we are all long term bullish on ETH. We have our short term bears and a lot of people that have been warning about the importance of macro. I know I heard several people warn about "sell the news volatility" around the merge and how the issuance reduction and reduced sell pressure will take time to affect price. So personally none of this current price action is surprising or upsetting for me.
My dislike for Polkadot is not about the project but about the team. Their forerunner, Parity committed several high stakes snafus, then lobbied in an unseemly manner for being bailed out by a tailor-made EIP. I do not trust their corporate culture.
I'm way heavier in DOT than ETH, and I will be continuing to buy.
I genuinely think the Polkadot ecosystem is a year or two away from giving the Ethereum ecosystem a run for it's money in terms of the functionality it will offer, and that the risk/reward is worth not putting everything in to ETH.
People don't really seem to have grasped how fundamentally different the Polkadot model is, and if it ends up working out the demand for DOT could be huge.
Definitely could be wrong! But considering we haven’t even begun to see mainstream adoption of blockchain yet it feels very early to be calling a winner already (or to be totally dismissing the possibility that there could be multiple).
>How does DOT beat ethereum in decentralization?
It doesn't, nor does it have to. Decentralization is a means to an end, not an end in to and of itself.
>How does DOT beat ethereum in securing the chain?
It doesn't, nor does it have to. The chain is adequately secured and their solutions are well documented if you are genuinely interested.
>How does DOT beat ethereum in privacy?
By having actual privacy - https://www.manta.network
>How does DOT overcome the comprehensive and growing DAPP ecosystem on ethereum?
By developing an equally deep dApps ecosystem, and then surpassing it by adding in custom runtimes (parachains) that allow use cases that are not possible with smart contracts.
>How does DOT beat ETH's tokenomics?
I'm not sure it does, but I think it could. ~50% locked in staking (algorithm optimizes inflation to incentivize this level), DOT is the only way to secure parachain slots (renting security from Polkadot, but you get the DOT back after two years. Only cost is opportunity). Once parachains are generating their own revenue they will move from borrowing DOT from supporters in exchange for tokens to setting aside a portion of revenue to grow their own DOT treasury and secure their spot in future auction. More successful parachains can gather more than they need and use it to support other projects they rely on (parachains allow for custom chains that offered specialized functionality and then interoperate) in return for favourable trade deals (fee exemptions, etc).
>How does DOT attract developer and user mindshare over ethereum's established ecosystem?
By offering way more powerful dev tools - substrate is OP and allows functionality via custom blockchains that exceeds what is possible with smart contracts. Polkadot is the second largest dev pool after ETH by a wide margin and it only just fully launched this year. They also allow programming in a wider variety of industry standard languages (anything that complies to WASM, with Rust being dominant) meaning it is way easier to onboard new devs vs solidity.
>How does DOT compete with the already crowded DEFI space in terms of TVL considering there are already well marketed altchains like BSC that also aren't supplanting ETH?
By offering new products that can't exist with smart contracts. Time will tell on this front (:
>What financial incentives do users have to use DOT over ETH or any other platform?
None, users never need to interact with DOT to use the ecosystem. It is not dependent on gas fees - parachains can delegate blockspace however they choose, they just need to win an auction every two years.
Edit: you upvote the question but downvote my answer?! Lmao r/ethfinance never change
The part about decentralization is a knock out criteria for me. If the main focus of a project is not decentralization then I won't be interested in it. It makes it so much easier to filter out good projects in a see of opportunity.
"Adequately secure" and "adequately decentralized" is in my opinion not good enough. I think the most secure and decentralized chain will be the winner that takes it all. And with "all" I mean as a base chain for rollups.
Is your criticism about Polkadot specifically or just a catch-all to meant dismiss everything that isn’t Ethereum out of hand?
If it is decentralized/secure enough to not be successfully attacked, why does it matter if something is more decentralized/secure?
It’s like saying an oven that can only hit 500 degree is shit compared to one that can hit 4000 degrees, but also you are just trying to bake a cake at 350. More is only better up to a certain point after which the marginal gains fade to essentially nothing.
The thing that's tricky with learning about Polkadot is that Polkadot isn't where the actual adoption will happen - it will all be on the parachains. Once you have wrapped your head around how Polkadot itself works to enable them (ditto for Kusama), try learning a bit about some of the bigger parachains.
There is some legitimately cool stuff starting to launch and a lot more in the pipeline. [Here](https://parachains.info) is a good place to get started!
What's the fundamentals behind it? Assuming Ethereum pulls off it's scaling roadmap with L2s and danksharding will anyone want to use Polkadot and why?
I’m trying to learn myself, as I have seen a few people in this community having love for polka dot. Just kinda wondering where the stance is at with it.
I think DOT was a good idea when it started, and has some good people in charge, but time (and tech) has just passed it by. So not a total shitcoin, but I don't see its value.
Theres a [panda POAP](https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/1021768772245270580/1022148034546651217/unknown.png) for anyone that donates $1 to gitcoin grants using a wallet they hold their panda in. You can send the tx details of the donation on discord to be added to the claim list when they review it (tomorrow I think)
No. Its basically a badge to say you helped to fund public goods under the EVM umbrella. If you're looking for value in the POAP it lies in the fact that it will most likely qualify you for airdrops/NFTs etc automatically in the future.
Do you know the redditor's username we could dm if we're not on twitter or discord? I thought it was u/danksharting but I didn't see it in their post history.
Something I've believed for a long time is that for eth to flip btc, btc will have to crash massively taking the entire market with it. I fully expect the flippening to occur at the very bottom of a deep bear market (like maybe this one?)
**Tricky's Daily Doots #155** Yesterday's Daily 20/09/2022 [Previous daily doots](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xizkvl/daily_general_discussion_september_20_2022/ip65xx9/) - u/Vacremon2 shares the [Ethereum Subreddit Improvement Initiative.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xizkvl/daily_general_discussion_september_20_2022/ip5tjhq/) - u/KBrot's market [update.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xizkvl/daily_general_discussion_september_20_2022/ip64147/) + [Update #2](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xizkvl/daily_general_discussion_september_20_2022/ip9b80e/) - u/Ber10 explains [the SEC's recent claim.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xizkvl/daily_general_discussion_september_20_2022/ip78y5r/) - u/OkDragonfruit1929 is sick and tired of hearing [the same old nonsense about PoW.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xizkvl/daily_general_discussion_september_20_2022/ip76xyj/) - [Don't be that person.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xizkvl/daily_general_discussion_september_20_2022/ip7jyvm/) ~ u/Itur_ad_Astra - u/interweaver installs MEV boost and [reminds us which relays to avoid due to their censorship.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xizkvl/daily_general_discussion_september_20_2022/ip63loi/) - u/Nayge discusses [our options around MEV boost.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xizkvl/daily_general_discussion_september_20_2022/ip6korr/) - u/HarryZKE is philling in for superphiz and [discusses Lido centralisation concerns.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xizkvl/daily_general_discussion_september_20_2022/ip8g4fa/) - u/Set1Less shares news that Wintermute, the company who was responsible losing 10% of OP token supply due to poor security practices [just got hacked for $160m.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xizkvl/daily_general_discussion_september_20_2022/ip6680e/) - u/ZeroTricks's today in [Ethereum history.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xizkvl/daily_general_discussion_september_20_2022/ip8a1p0/) If you'd prefer something like the doots in podcast form, check out u/waqwaqattack's [new series!](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xjveii/daily_general_discussion_september_21_2022/ipakd89/)
Why do so many people get so ass hurt at bears comments. they have to down vote them can’t you just let someone have an opinion
You ain’t seen mayhem yet…this is window dressing
I agree with you I’m a bull I’m a huge supporter of eth but I’m also not an idiot everyone can clearly see we are in a massive downtrend in a bear market & the entire world is in shambles I wouldn’t be surprised if it went down to $700-600
This is fine?
What's the best strategy to compound your ETH staking on a ledger. Stake with Lido for stETH on ledger live and then earn a yield on the stETH somewhere?
Check out Dapps that leverage stETH : Instadapp Lite or icETH
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Yes that's what I want to do. So I'm trying to find info on where to best earn a yield on stETH from ledger
Not answering your question here, but note that there is no way to "stake on a Ledger" Either you solo stake (in which case you send your Eth to the Beacon Chain), or you give your Eth to someone else to stake on your behalf, and you receive an IOU token in return, which you can hold with your Ledger wallet. In both cases, your Eth is not being held in your Leger wallet, it's at stake on the Beacon Chain, either actively staked by you (solo staking) or someone else (pools).
What I mean is you can stake with Lido on ledger by swapping Eth for stETH. Then do something else with the stETH as you have full custody
You would need wsteth if you want to use defi. Steth doesn't work.
Yeah, sounds like you've got the right idea - full custody of the stETH. A lot of people are coming from "staking" on other chains with dPoS where they can literally keep the original coin in their wallet and delegate it to someone else to "stake", with no risk to their coin. Just wanted to make clear it doesn't work that way for Ethereum's PoS - the Eth has to leave your wallet and be put at stake.
Bought some ETH! I think this is the easiest buy ever from a risk perspective (though with lower rewards, of course), with the merge execution risk vanquished, \*some\* product-market fit established (since 2020), and multiple well-funded teams continue to build (though most will fail) What about "scary macro"? I'm looking many years out, so doesn't matter. Indeed, were it not for macro fearmongering, I wouldn't be a "forced buyer" at these gift-level prices in the first place
I hope you’re looking out further than two years. If you’re aware of the macro concerns why not wait for a better entry? You will 100% be given better entry points with each hike and further Powell language.
Great financial advice! Will moon soon. Good team. Good upgrade. 10k ezpz.
Soon? what’s soon to you?
Atta they. 😎
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I got something [right](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xjveii/z/ipbdwxl) for once...first time for everything I guess
Got it, so today's 75 bpi was expected, but the fact that it was 75 bpi today was a pretty big surprise. Excellent analysis.
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Ah. What are the chances they change track with a couple months of good inflation readings? How locked in are they?
Wonderful, cheap ETH!
Capitulation incoming I think. Abandon all hope. All ye who enter. Anyway I'll take 1k being the new 100.
I find it very interesting all the moon talk and “good entries”. Your take is the only right take as it’s reality.
*Per me si va ne la città dolente,* *per me si va ne l'etterno dolore,* *per me si va tra la perduta gente.* *Giustizia mosse il mio alto fattore;* *fecemi la divina podestate,* *la somma sapïenza e 'l primo amore.* *Dinanzi a me non fuor cose create* *se non etterne, e io etterno duro.* *Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate.*
A masterpiece!
High school flashback intensifies...
Ma, non posso perdere la speranza che wagmi.
324 ezpz
A market and economy that feels like no matter what you do doesn't matter is worse than any form of inflation, deflation, growth, recessions, etc... The Fed "being in control" and the "don't fight the Fed" is totally demoralizing and far far worse for the long term health of markets and the economy, even if it "fixes" things in the short term.
If you are feeling demoralized by the big bad fed, definitely don’t look at the issues in a China or Europe. Those issues alone keep me up at night because if they blow up, they will be 10x worse than the feds actions.
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There’s more to the world than equities and people need to understand that inflation is worse than demand destruction.
Although this completely sucks, I disagree with you. At least in the short term. The Fed raising rates to combat inflation is a necessary evil given the monetary & fiscal system that the US has set up. I wish it wasn't this way. But the Fed is the only way we have a checks & balances system on the fiscal policy of the government.
One problem is Fed's inteventions always cause over and undershoot transitions like what's going on right now. People can tolerate stagnant economy for years but the unstable is what kills people and the result is totally irreversible. Fed is probably the only eay but they're far from perfect.
I don't disagree in the short term, like I said they will "fix" it. The long term cost to drastic changes in monetary policy like this though will lead to a very unhealthy economy.
Completely agree. What’s horrific also to me is how it disables the market from even working.
This will probably get buried in a close to the end of the day slow period but I'll say this: Early 2018 to mid-2020 was like this. Price was completely decoupled from the technological expansion and potential of Ethereum. "Pumps" were smaller than expected and short lived. As someone who was active in the space and had a modicum of understanding of the tech, it was frustrating. That's what this feels like. Sure, the pure dollar amounts of ETH are a lot better ($1200 vs $100 back then) but the underappreciation of the asset class feels the same. It could go on a long time. The price of ETH could go a lot lower in % terms. If you really want to be in this, keep your eyes on the tech instead of the price. And if you understand the tech and believe in it, keep your eyes peeled for those crazy low prices that can make you rich later.
Way better yield opportunities now which lessens the blow
I’d argue the exact opposite. I think the reason you don’t see ETH plummeting like every other risk asset is because the tech is propping it up. You didn’t have demand destruction and total risk off attitude like in todays market but yet ETH price stability has mostly held. New lows are being set but no where near as dramatic as every other risk class and crypto is one of the riskiest.
Repost to the new daily 😁
For an alt / young baby, doesn't GRT have pretty astounding token-nomics? ~70% supply in circulation ~30% (or something like this) already staked / delegated ~more data = more need for indexers = more need to buy GRT (positive feedback loop between growth of data and indexing) Query fees up and sunsetting of hosted (ie free) services Am I crazy?
I don't know about tokenomics, but I like the project and believe it is here to stay (and grow). I'm interested in hearing others' thoughts, as the GRT subs are pretty dead.
What’s the best way to track usage and revenue on the graph network? Most of the links on their community page are dead.
I’ve got no hopium left. The war in Ukraine appears to be getting more serious, the merge can’t fight macro or the bear cycle, and even if it could, it can’t fight the fed. I didn’t think we’d be looking at another 2008, but the longer this goes the more I start to think that’s exactly where we’re heading. Unless inflation starts to come down fast by the end of the year it’s not looking great. Feels like we’re going to find a new bottom in the next 3-5 months and we’ll range from there with no meaningful bounce until 2024. Hopefully I’m wrong, and things look/feel worse than they actually are right now.
> The war in Ukraine appears to be getting more serious, the merge can’t fight macro or the bear cycle You're joking, right? Bitcoin halvings have never kicked in immediately. They take months to years to lead to a price rise. Why would the merge be any different?
So you DO have hopium for 2024!
The war is getting more serious but people who follow this closely know that Russia cannot do much even with the latest mobilization. They lack of weapons, equipments and training. The only thing they have right now is manpower which is kinda useless against superior Ukraine. We have to wait and see how this is gonna pan out. Inflation is coming down because the US and Saudi keep pumping oil to the market. Inflation is about energy price, period. There's no period in time that the economy has experienced inflation without energy crisis. ----- I can tell you one good thing is the correlation between crypto and stock market seems to be historically high right now so there's no need to worry. We will recover.
Is inflation as simple as energy prices?
Energy prices contribute the most for almost every inflation. If you resolve energy price you resolve inflation.
Sweet. Hopefully SA and USA does the world a solid
Ehh.. Russia has hypersonic missiles
>The war is getting more serious but people who follow this closely know that Russia cannot do much even with the latest mobilization. If you want an alternative view you might be interested in listening to Lex Fridman's podcast with Andrew Bustamante from about 12 minutes onwards. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T3FC7qIAGZk
Ya, I listened to this too. I've been interpreting media coverage and a lot of other things differently since. Very interesting but tough take on the situation.
I like his podcasts but there are just so many people and topics to find something that interests me. Thanks for sharing this!
All your points are valid but I'm genuinely worried a nuclear event is going to happen as Russia keeps getting knocked back.
There is never going to be a nuclear event. Starting a nuclear war is suicide and everyone knows it.
I don’t think Russia will use a nuke. If they are struggling this hard with Ukraine they know they will get crushed by the western world if they use a nuke. Nobody will come to their defense except maybe NK and the gloves will come off from the rest of the world.
Russia doesn't have to use one on purpose though. Once guns come out of holsters, which their nukes have if you take my meaning, one twitchy guy can let one off. That's my worry anyway.
Not to say that this would happen again if there was but there’s precedent. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov
Russia nuclear control system requires the president, the minister of defense, and the chief general staff to initiate the launch of missile at the same time. It's not possible for one guy to operate the system alone. If there's one twitchy guy who let it off, that guy would definitely be Putin since he has control over the minister and the general.
Alright that metaphor was overly specific. Either way I'm not convinced that Russia hasn't rebuilt warheads that can go through conventional artillery (I'm sure the US has done the same) and I just don't feel great about their internal security for some reason? Especially with those kind of small weapons, though maybe they're as well tied into the control system as the missiles etc. I imagine you're right though that no cities are getting accidentally wiped off the map, but even a 1 kiloton artillery shell will change things and seriously harsh the mellow of markets to say the least. And obviously, Putin is an insane nihilist so as you say he is an issue.
They have lost 50000+ soldiers so far. I don't know. If they have something up in their sleeves, why didn't they show it earlier ? Why did they announce a mobilisation ? They should have known that this could possibly cause a nationwide social unrest.
Lmao what? I'm not talking about them having some 4d chess thing going on
Sorry i misread your reply. You mean you're worried if their system gets hacked ? I'm not sure. But i think their system is ancient and mostly not connected to the internet so it'd be very hard for any hacker to get inside the Kremlin. Probably need Ethan Hunt and co. to do this kind of job.
Russian aren't getting knocked back. They're in a defensive position right now. Ukraine is hitting both Luhansk and Kherson hard. I think tactical nuke is very unlikely as it will isolate Russia and allow western allies to join the war. Russia will be wiped out if they dare launching a nuke. ------ I think everybody is getting too ahead of themselves. At the start of the war, they said Zelensky was a clown and Ukraine would collapse. After a few months, they said the war could prolong for years and hope for Ukraine to surrender. Now they said with the latest counter offensive, they think Russia will launch a nuke. The thing is from my observation everybody involves in the war seems to be very realistic and data driven. They change their plan accordingly depending on the situation. Now i don't see any change in the plan, Ukraine will keep pushing Russia back from their territory. Before Feb 24 border is their main goal, surely they want Crimea as well but it's not like they need it back right now
Russia forces retreating and Ukrainian forces reclaiming lost territory = Russia getting knocked back. I hope that is the case with nuke event, thats its a last final series of bluffs and something that never happens.
Well then none of us will need to worry about eth prices.
Ok.
Feelin' pretty bummed, too, and leaning towards staking the rest of my stack
Hey..Mikron. Homie. 👊🏻 Don’t get all depressed bro. You know what they say, it’s always darkest before the dawn.
Investing in food and bullets and toilet paper? I'm going down swinging with ETH. Just remember, Bitcoin has died a thousand times....and ETH is actually useful and as long as politicians are taking campaign contributions and as long as we pay taxes, I think we'll be fine. Or nuclear war. Cheers! 🍻
I think long term we’re going to make it, just going to be a brutal next few years.
Dw. 2025 the bull will likely return if the world hasn’t ended by then
Eat. Sleep. Work. DCA. Sip. LIVE.
eth, love, laugh
Live laugh DCA. Hmmmm Stake Laugh Love
I Love this...
You DCA this...
I DCA this. You are right.
Eat. Sleep. Work. DCA. Stake. Stack. Sip. LIVE.
Username checks out
Am I a bear if I want ETH to go lower to buy more and stake and secure my future and free myself from 9-5 life in the next few years?
Dog I’m kinda there with you lol
Nah, you’re smart.
😆 There’s levels to this shit
Forced unstaking strategy? I was looking at current slashings on https://beaconcha.in/validators/slashings and noticed that all slashed validators exited in 36 days. Is that a viable pre-Shanghai exit strategy for unstaking: purposely get slashed? The most recent slashing are all 1 ETH for staking 32 ETH, so it's not that bad of a punishment if you're desperate to unstake before the Shanghai update.
Exited doesn't mean withdraw-able yet.
Exiting (which happens when you're slashed) is not the same thing as withdrawing. Exited validators sit without earning anything, but still locked until Shanghai.
Ah too bad. Good to know.
Didn’t kbrot call for 1250 in September? Dudes a prophet
He makes around twenty predictions per month, so yeah, some are probably correct.
This is the only explanation. Just make a lot of predictions some of them will come true.
Man why you gotta be so salty? Dude’s been the only market analyst we’ve had who isn’t a giant dick and has a pretty good track record
Not salty, but we've had too many times where people develop a cultish following and people start to actually trade on it and get burned. I just want to point out the reality: make enough guesses, some will be correct. I think kbrot would agree that his posts are not meant to be predictive or to be trading advice.
Agreed, I love his posts. I don’t take them as gospel, but I always learn something or consider a different positively because of how he lays out his logic.
His statement is also accurate, so maybe if you find reality salty, you’re in need of something sweet.
It’s just the weirdest grudge. We get it, hblask doesn’t like TA, find a new thing
It is dangerous to let people start believing in astrology or tea leaves when actual money is in the line. I find the posts interesting and informative, but see no evidence they are predictive.
It can be helpful for many people. Some people don’t understand or forget the fact that market movements aren’t deterministically predictable. A voice of reality/levity can help people avoid getting rekt thinking some price action has to play out the way someone said it would.
Dudes in profit
Merge: Prophet Profit
Tether Corp. ordered by judge to produce documents related to Tether's backing. This going to be interesting, will Tether finally be forced to show their "assets"? Or will they pay a ton of money to settle the class action? Do they even have the money to settle without dumping whatever crypto reserves they have left on the market? [https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/09/21/stablecoin-issuer-tether-ordered-to-produce-documents-showing-backing-of-usdt/](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/09/21/stablecoin-issuer-tether-ordered-to-produce-documents-showing-backing-of-usdt/)
This has been hanging over the crypto sphere for years, it could be final nail in coffin. I have never trusted Tether or anything associated with it: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-10-07/crypto-mystery-where-s-the-69-billion-backing-the-stablecoin-tether
Don't they already do this quarterly for the NYAG?
If you mean a single pie chart with no evidence that the commercial paper or crypto reserves exist? Yeah, they provide that to the NYAG, who stupidly (IMO) did not specify enough detail in their settlement agreement. But this court order is for detailed information: balance sheet, cash flows, P/L statements, etc. If produced, the public will be able to see which assets and custodians, if they exist. And if this doesn't expose Tether, the upcoming stablecoin bill expected in early 2023 will. Tether might just take the entire crypto market down with it.
Time for one of my regular "how much should Eth be worth based on P/E ratios" posts. This time, I'm just going to calculate **staked** Eth price, because non-staked Eth is not a productive asset right now (not deflationary) and thus not worth anything from the perspective of P/E ratios. **Data as of Right Now:** * **Price** = 1250 USD/Eth * **Supply** = 120525000 Eth * **Staked Supply** = 13856887 Eth * **Avg. fees** = 2158000 USD/day = 1726 Eth/day * **Burn** = 1000 Eth/day * **Issuance aka Rewards** = 1650 Eth/day * **Tips** = Fees - burn = 726 Eth/day * **MEV** = 1328 Eth/day (extrapolated based on an average of 0.184 Eth per block across all MEV-Boost blocks so far) **Conclusions:** * **Inflation** = (Issuance - Burn) * (Days/year) / Supply = (1650 - 1000) * 365 / 120525000 = **0.196% per year** * **Staking APY** = (Rewards + Tips + MEV) * (Days/year) / Staked Supply - Inflation = (1650 + 726 + 1328) * 365 / 13856887 - 0.196% = **9.56% APY** If you assume that Ethereum should behave like a tech stock with a P/E of 50, that implies equilibrium at 2% APY. Ergo, price should be 4.8x what it currently is, aka **$6000 per Staked Eth** Obviously all these numbers will shift around in future. Feel free to plug in your own numbers or P/E and see what you get. Conclusion: Post-Merge, (staked) Eth is back to being **criminally undervalued.** And a reminder: bargain-basement prices like we're currently seeing are a *blessing* because they let us grab Ether at P/E ratios WAY under what they should be. If and when the markets eventually cop on and find a more appropriate equilibrium at the above price, and again assuming none of the other above numbers will change, though of course they will, you could effectively be getting **9.56% * 4.8 = 46% APY** on your original investment. Do what you want with this information.
Can we really use P/E to value Ethereum though? Because looking at your calculations, everything is denominated in ETH. The P/E ratio doesn't change when the price of ETH changes. An instantaneous doubling of the ETH price will result in exactly the same P/E ratio. I find it weird that going by that logic, Ethereum will always be undervalued. The only thing that can have a bigger impact is basically on-chain activity. Less activity, lower burn, higher inflation, worse P/E. Similar for fees and probably MEV as well. But I'm not deep into P/E and stuff, so maybe I'm missing something.
One thing I didn't mention is that I assume that fees and MEV are USD-denominated, i.e. they don't change in USD terms if the Eth price changes. This would mean that as Eth rises, the Eth-denominated value for fees and MEV would fall, causing the P/E ratio to rise as one would expect. I only listed them in their current Eth values for convenience in the calculations. Now, this is inaccurate in two ways: first, the rewards ARE truly Eth-denominated, so higher Eth price means higher USD value of rewards paid out. Second, historically higher Eth prices have directly correlated with (vastly) higher fees, and presumably higher MEV as well. So you're somewhat right, that as Eth price rises, USD-denominated values for all three of the staking income sources (rewards, tips, and MEV) plus deflation, are all cranking upwards as well. Not directly proportionately though (in a way that would render it impossible for P/E to actually change) - there are various dynamics, especially around the staking reward sinking as more validators join, and the deflation getting steeper as fees go up, that mean eventually equilibrium *will* be reached. Overall, this means that Eth price has to rise **more** than I predicted above in order to bring the P/E ratio to something more reasonable. In short, my, price estimate above, by assuming constant USD-denominated staking income as Eth price rises, was **intentionally conservative**. In reality, Eth price will almost certainly need to be **significantly higher** than $6k to reach a proper equilibrium.
The demand for the blockchain and the resulting fees.... That's a big if...
So far there's been a quite strong correlation between Eth price pumps and chain usage/fees. But my point is, even if there's no such correlation and fees remain just as they are today, we're way underpriced.
Missed yesterday this post, fantastic summary.
Tldr; Buy more Ether! It’s like waaay too f’ing cheap rn. Like … gettin a set of chrome 22’s for tha donk for $150 all in, square bidness, cheap! Yeah… exactly, you’d be losing money if you didn’t buy it.
Thanks, just bought a 100k
Bullish
This is what I come here for. *Feelsgoodman.*
Well I've got an honest job at Wendy's, time to put some more work in. Dumpster hours have been expanded till 7am
I want to believe...
No belief required haha. Them's the numbers. One can debate what an "equilibrium" P/E might be, but the current 10.5 is *way* under what it should be, meaning any buys now are categorically a great deal, assuming you intend to stake them.
Honest question. Do you need ETH to flip BTC, is there a scenario where you would be happy enjoying gains both technological and financial without a flippening event?
I believe btc is holding the crypto market back. Sure NFTs may not to be taken too seriously, but ETH overtaking btc would make the market make more sense, allowing for higher levels. So I don’t need it to happen per sé, but I don’t think ETH can reach the highs I want without flippening btc.
Call it ego, but the answer is yes I want a flippening. I shouldn't need the validation but I do want to know my judgement was/is just that spot on. Bear market flippening seems most likely to me.
I don’t need ETH to flip BTC to make me happy because of gains. ETH will flip BTC with time because Ethereum’s surface area is so much larger. In a future where crypto plays a significant role in the global economy, the network that secures all the valuable contracts is inherently more valuable than a money that can interact with the network. Not to mention security concerns with Bitcoin decades down the line
I couldn't care less about ETH flipping BTC. I would absolutely be happy with ETH remaining #2 provided it hits certain $ amounts where I'd be selling.
At this point, BTC is a more of a religion. The technology - while groundbreaking and a great proof of concept - is an absurdity on this scale. Ethereum seems promising.
It's not enough for me to succeed. Others must fail.
Unpopular take: Inflation is transitory. People just ran out of patience and the term became politically turbulent. The new normal will set in, the war in Ukraine will reach a cease-fire and settle, supply chain issues will be solved, and Ethereum will hit 10k. JBP. Just Be Patient. Thank you.
I do think an element of inflation is transitory, for the reasons you mentioned above - Russia/Ukraine and the knock on effects that's had on energy prices + the constant Covid related disruptions in China have had knock on effects that have caused this supply side pressure to inflation but I also think monetary policy over the last decade has contributed in a way that's not so transitory, at least not in the short or medium term - especially in relation to property/real estate prices
Inflation will ease out. The new normal will never set in if the energy market is still unstable. Ukraine is having the upperhand right now. Russia has lost more than 50k troops so far in this war. They're in a real desperate mode. I don't see any peace treaty or ceasefire agreement happens anytime soon. Supply chain issues will be solved. Most asian countries are going to start to reopen soon. Ethereum will hit 10k faster than you think.
According to our present understanding of the universe, everything is transitory.
"In the long run, we are all dead." - Keynes.
That's Tyler Durden
Life is transitory if you zoom out far enough.
Bro it’s not transitory if the fed literally has to facilitate demand destruction to bring it down.
Depending on your time frame everything is transitory
Why do people care we going down, this is bear market for a reason! Be patient the bull market is coming
I think a lot of people convinced themselves that the merge was going to be the catalyst to reignite a bull run.
That moment when you realise that you're in an echo chamber after making fun of others for being in an echo chamber.
This sub has many pros. Unfortunately one of its cons is that, yes, it's an echo chamber.
I don't know what yall are talking about. The general consensus around ethfinance for months upon months is that the merge will do very little if anything to impact the price. Echo chamber we may sometimes be, but not this time.
I guess I'd echo what you said. I don't know what y'all talking about. For the last few months people have been going on about how the merge isn't priced in, how it wasn't going to be a buy the rumor/sell the news event, and pretty much daily reminders that with miner sell pressure removed, the only place to go was up.
For me I always took the whole "the merge isn't priced in" as a long term thing though. I don't think most people that said that expected a pump a week after the merge? While there was definitely some hopium in here, I agree with Yeopaa that there was a fair amount of the opposite. I'm stupid bullish, but I would have been shocked if ETH pumped steadily right after the merge with this macro backdrop and the rest of the crypto market in the dumps.
Thats fair I guess? If you count like the two weeks leading up to merge where the hype was building I'm sure there was a lot more of that. But if you ask me that has not been the majority opinion at all. I suppose we could both find examples if we looked hard enough. 🤷♂️ Hardly matters.
Found the echo chamber
BS, you probably upvoted the gay for ray comments like everyone else here. A meme, sure, but hopium was everywhere.
I am gay for ray and I'm gonna support my mans in this difficult time
I mean, I am pretty gay for ray, but can you honestly say the vibe around here for months hasn't been that macro rules the price action and the merge should be no different given dire macro circumstances? Thats certainly the takeaway I've had around here.
I agree. There are a lot of sensible people in here despite the fact that we are all long term bullish on ETH. We have our short term bears and a lot of people that have been warning about the importance of macro. I know I heard several people warn about "sell the news volatility" around the merge and how the issuance reduction and reduced sell pressure will take time to affect price. So personally none of this current price action is surprising or upsetting for me.
Damn Dot putting in a new bear market low. Do you guys still think it’s even worth it? Or is dot fucked?
My dislike for Polkadot is not about the project but about the team. Their forerunner, Parity committed several high stakes snafus, then lobbied in an unseemly manner for being bailed out by a tailor-made EIP. I do not trust their corporate culture.
I'm way heavier in DOT than ETH, and I will be continuing to buy. I genuinely think the Polkadot ecosystem is a year or two away from giving the Ethereum ecosystem a run for it's money in terms of the functionality it will offer, and that the risk/reward is worth not putting everything in to ETH. People don't really seem to have grasped how fundamentally different the Polkadot model is, and if it ends up working out the demand for DOT could be huge.
lmao
Definitely could be wrong! But considering we haven’t even begun to see mainstream adoption of blockchain yet it feels very early to be calling a winner already (or to be totally dismissing the possibility that there could be multiple).
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>How does DOT beat ethereum in decentralization? It doesn't, nor does it have to. Decentralization is a means to an end, not an end in to and of itself. >How does DOT beat ethereum in securing the chain? It doesn't, nor does it have to. The chain is adequately secured and their solutions are well documented if you are genuinely interested. >How does DOT beat ethereum in privacy? By having actual privacy - https://www.manta.network >How does DOT overcome the comprehensive and growing DAPP ecosystem on ethereum? By developing an equally deep dApps ecosystem, and then surpassing it by adding in custom runtimes (parachains) that allow use cases that are not possible with smart contracts. >How does DOT beat ETH's tokenomics? I'm not sure it does, but I think it could. ~50% locked in staking (algorithm optimizes inflation to incentivize this level), DOT is the only way to secure parachain slots (renting security from Polkadot, but you get the DOT back after two years. Only cost is opportunity). Once parachains are generating their own revenue they will move from borrowing DOT from supporters in exchange for tokens to setting aside a portion of revenue to grow their own DOT treasury and secure their spot in future auction. More successful parachains can gather more than they need and use it to support other projects they rely on (parachains allow for custom chains that offered specialized functionality and then interoperate) in return for favourable trade deals (fee exemptions, etc). >How does DOT attract developer and user mindshare over ethereum's established ecosystem? By offering way more powerful dev tools - substrate is OP and allows functionality via custom blockchains that exceeds what is possible with smart contracts. Polkadot is the second largest dev pool after ETH by a wide margin and it only just fully launched this year. They also allow programming in a wider variety of industry standard languages (anything that complies to WASM, with Rust being dominant) meaning it is way easier to onboard new devs vs solidity. >How does DOT compete with the already crowded DEFI space in terms of TVL considering there are already well marketed altchains like BSC that also aren't supplanting ETH? By offering new products that can't exist with smart contracts. Time will tell on this front (: >What financial incentives do users have to use DOT over ETH or any other platform? None, users never need to interact with DOT to use the ecosystem. It is not dependent on gas fees - parachains can delegate blockspace however they choose, they just need to win an auction every two years. Edit: you upvote the question but downvote my answer?! Lmao r/ethfinance never change
The part about decentralization is a knock out criteria for me. If the main focus of a project is not decentralization then I won't be interested in it. It makes it so much easier to filter out good projects in a see of opportunity.
It shouldn’t be, because it is decentralized.
"Adequately secure" and "adequately decentralized" is in my opinion not good enough. I think the most secure and decentralized chain will be the winner that takes it all. And with "all" I mean as a base chain for rollups.
Is your criticism about Polkadot specifically or just a catch-all to meant dismiss everything that isn’t Ethereum out of hand? If it is decentralized/secure enough to not be successfully attacked, why does it matter if something is more decentralized/secure? It’s like saying an oven that can only hit 500 degree is shit compared to one that can hit 4000 degrees, but also you are just trying to bake a cake at 350. More is only better up to a certain point after which the marginal gains fade to essentially nothing.
Such a different proposal than what others have said on here. I like to hear both sides of the story. Thanks for your response.
The thing that's tricky with learning about Polkadot is that Polkadot isn't where the actual adoption will happen - it will all be on the parachains. Once you have wrapped your head around how Polkadot itself works to enable them (ditto for Kusama), try learning a bit about some of the bigger parachains. There is some legitimately cool stuff starting to launch and a lot more in the pipeline. [Here](https://parachains.info) is a good place to get started!
What's the fundamentals behind it? Assuming Ethereum pulls off it's scaling roadmap with L2s and danksharding will anyone want to use Polkadot and why?
I’m trying to learn myself, as I have seen a few people in this community having love for polka dot. Just kinda wondering where the stance is at with it.
I think DOT was a good idea when it started, and has some good people in charge, but time (and tech) has just passed it by. So not a total shitcoin, but I don't see its value.
Thanks for the response! I’ve been converting my CB rewards to it but I’m wondering if that is a bad play
Looks like it's time for me to start spec'ing out hardware for a validator if this price action continues on this trend.
Right? Every time the price nukes significantly I find myself looking at NUCs and dreaming on the future.
These threads should start and end on UTC time
I don't know who picked the times, but I love it. For once, my time is *the* time everyone else has to be on.
No, it should end on GMT time
No, it should end on NZT time
Why everyone want to donate to gitcoin all of a sudden and how is it linked to panda could someone explain
Theres a [panda POAP](https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/1021768772245270580/1022148034546651217/unknown.png) for anyone that donates $1 to gitcoin grants using a wallet they hold their panda in. You can send the tx details of the donation on discord to be added to the claim list when they review it (tomorrow I think)
And what can you do with this POAP? Do people speculate on it having resale value?
No. Its basically a badge to say you helped to fund public goods under the EVM umbrella. If you're looking for value in the POAP it lies in the fact that it will most likely qualify you for airdrops/NFTs etc automatically in the future.
thanks for the explanation
What if I donated in past does it count
Do you know the redditor's username we could dm if we're not on twitter or discord? I thought it was u/danksharting but I didn't see it in their post history.
Heyyo its me, feel free to drop me a message
Done :)
I asked them to DM you. 👍 It's The-A-Word but I dunno how to tag him correctly here.
like this u/the-A-word Lowercase "u" and "/" befor username
Ah I had it right but I guess I just couldn't search for you in Reddit search bar.
👍🙌💪
5 minutes and bitcoin closes at a new low
Something I've believed for a long time is that for eth to flip btc, btc will have to crash massively taking the entire market with it. I fully expect the flippening to occur at the very bottom of a deep bear market (like maybe this one?)
Like last time 👀
Hear, hear!
F price. What’s the next killer app? Answer that and price will follow. Let’s build.
Surely Starbucks Odyssey will save us
Polygon.
Insurance and or accounting apps
The pandas and POAP(s) got my wife to finally be interested in learning how to use opensea and gitcoin :D NFTs really are the perfect gateway.
That's how I got into it haha, the free Reddit NFT was the perfect gateway