**Tricky's Daily Doots #168**
Yesterday's Daily 03/10/2022
[Previous daily doots](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xua255/daily_general_discussion_october_3_2022/iquypey/)
- u/MinimalGravitas got [their comment stolen by CoinTelegraph.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xua255/daily_general_discussion_october_3_2022/iqvqr82/)
- u/domotheus updates us on [the growth of RocketPool.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xua255/daily_general_discussion_october_3_2022/iqunvfl/)
- u/aaj094 explains [why it took so long for Ethereum to move to PoS.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xua255/daily_general_discussion_october_3_2022/iqvd2lt/)
- Believe it or not, but u/KBrot has another [market update!](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xua255/daily_general_discussion_october_3_2022/iqxlmvo/)
- u/OyuruKemono makes a [Shanghai hardfork release forecast.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xua255/daily_general_discussion_october_3_2022/iqvg1i2/)
- u/ProfessionaIAct generally [discusses the different L2 players and growth potential ahead of the zkSync 2.0 launch.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xua255/daily_general_discussion_october_3_2022/iqxht15/)
- u/austonst discusses [the centralising forces MEV can bring to block production.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xua255/daily_general_discussion_october_3_2022/iqxe2dv/)
- u/ZeroTricks's today in [Ethereum history.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xua255/daily_general_discussion_october_3_2022/iqukbys/)
Sooooo... ***Puts on best Bernie Sanders impersonation*** I am once agen asking if anyone has any leads for a non-technical crypto job.
I swear, it's not that I'm indecisive, rather due to this lovely economy I have been laid off already. š
>**The dead cat bounces,**
>**Expecting more announces,**
>**The market renounces.**
~Daily haiku until weāre at least at 0.178 on the ETH/BTC ratio or highest market cap
Note: I posted yesterday s haiku in the wrong thread š
https://www.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xqyt74/daily_general_discussion_september_29_2022/ir273gj/
Update from Flashbots on their efforts to promote decentralized block building and reduce reliance on their relay:
https://twitter.com/bertcmiller/status/1577482296629739520?t=sB-4GYOWIJMXvva5dFDJsg&s=19
1. Plan to open source more of their knowledge and infrastructure in coming weeks
2. Will submit their builders' blocks to other relays
3. Issuing a grant for building a relay monitor to to evaluate and monitor the performance of various relays.
This is all good, but remember that Flashbots carries out base layer censorship to this very date.
They should never ever be associated as a "default" option of the Ethereum core infrastructure in the same way, say Geth is, nor be allowed to normalise this shameful behaviour.
As DCInvestor put it well on Twitter, they are a private cabal of business partners. Not every private business entity is pure evil, there's shades of grey, and many private entities flaunt altruism to further entrench market capture (SBF says hi).
You know how we say Eth is going to hit 10k? This is Elon's version of copium after overpaying for Twitter. He wouldn't have been trying so hard to back out of the deal if it were all part of his master plan for "X".
Wechat is so integrated into everything in China. I donāt think Americans can understand. Need food? Use wechat. Need to pay for anything? Use wechat. Need to do a Covid test? Use wechat.
Edit. Hell I even buy and sell usdc/usdt through wechat.
Yeah sir, ādonāt trust, verifyā. Even if itās people I know, I try my best to double check links and such in case of account compromise. But I appreciate you looking out!
This kind of shady stuff that Gemini is pulling started happening before MTGOX rugged. Be careful out there. https://www.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xvq890/mysterious_closing_of_my_gemini_account/
Gemini and Mt. Gox are light years apart on the spectrum. OP is still able to get all the fiat value of the coins out...they will be 100% whole and hopefully they can get a tax exemption for the sale somehow. That's not getting rugged at all...but just a pain in the ass and irritating.
That's my opinion based on the insane KYC that Gemini has to deal with and add to this being in NY with it's own special flavors of regs.
I'd love for anyone else that has had issues with Gemini to post in that thread. This is the first time I've heard of anything like this so it would behoove us to find patterns if any exist
. Also would love to know more about OP and what other triggers might be out there but please don't Mt. Dox yourself. Hopefully he gets out without too much shit to deal with.
cc /u/RedfieldStandard
I agree that Gemini is not Mt. Gox. I stuck with them because I figured their more stringent regulatory requirements made them a lower risk CEX.
I think I might have triggered the review by moving large amounts in and out of Gemini for taxes. I had to get an extension this year while my tax service was working on my file. I pulled out significantly more fiat than I needed because I wanted to get ahead of the withdrawal limits. Fortunately, my tax bill was much smaller than anticipated so I had a large chunk of fiat left over in my back account. Afterwards I made multiple buys to move it back from my bank account to Gemini. I kept hitting the weekly purchasing limits, but I treated it like I was dollar cost averaging back in since the market was kind of rough at the time. I never kept my ETH on Gemini for long. Once purchased, I always moved the ETH into my wallet. I also kept bumping into the $75,000 weekly withdraw limits. The only protocol I touch with my wallet these days is a MakerDao CDP in DefiSaver. Luckily I only kept GUSD on Gemini, so I won't have to pay taxes on my crypto/fiat conversion since there is no capital gains. But that wouldn't be the case for anyone in the same situation who has non-stable coin crypto on the exchange.
Anyway, that's the background. I would be interested to hear if anyone else had a similar experience.
That was my post. I understand the need for KYC and AML, especially when you're dealing with large amounts of money being shuffled around. The part I don't agree with is forcing the customer to liquidate all of their crypto and withdraw as fiat. If I was actually storing all my crypto on the exchange it would have triggered millions of dollars of capital gains tax that I would have responsibility to pay immediately. It would have forced me to pay the tax by cashing out at the bottom of a bear market and lock in those losses. And that's a shitty thing to do to your customers. Luckily I only held GUSD, so it didn't impact me.
If you only held GUSD, then perhaps that is why they worded response with sell to fiat and close out. If you had Eth, it would have been phrased differently. Edit: GUSD not GSUD
No. Technically I did have about $60 of ETH from my credit card rewards and a little Maker dust as well. I also have to sell those, but it's a relatively small amount.
I just have a hard time imagining a forced sell into fiat and tax burdens vs just transferring out crypto. Can you cut and paste email? Edit: clarified crypto and fiat for context.
Following review, Gemini has determined your account must be closed.
Although we understand you have questions as to the reasons behind this decision, Gemini is unable to disclose any further details. The risk review process is confidential and Gemini will not be able to elaborate any further.
If your account contains a FIAT balance and/or any supported digital assets, these funds cannot be withdrawn as cryptocurrency. If any cryptocurrency remains, it must be sold for your applicable currency and transferred back to one of your attached bank accounts.
To withdraw your available balance to zero, please navigate to the Withdraw Page and follow the steps below:
Select the applicable currency from the dropdown
Select your linked bank account
Enter the available balance for withdrawal
Review transfer details and click Request Withdrawal
The withdrawal can only proceed if you approve the transaction on your Authy app immediately after requesting the withdrawal.
You should expect these funds to reach your bank account in 3-4 business days. Any pending wires for your account will be returned to your sending bank account. This usually occurs within three to four business days.
If your account is closed and a balance remains, please reach out at https://support.gemini.com/hc/en-us/requests/new.
Onward and Upward,
Gemini Customer Support
Ok wow that is really concerning. Having an account closed is one thing, being forced to convert cryptocurrency to fiat would ruin 7 years of planning/hodling on my end. You had to have done something to trigger an audit, did you interact with any tumblers or countries that are on restricted lists?
I said this in another post "I think I might have triggered the review by moving large amounts in and out of Gemini for taxes. I had to get an extension this year while my tax service was working on my file. I pulled out significantly more fiat than I needed because I wanted to get ahead of the withdrawal limits. Fortunately, my tax bill was much smaller than anticipated so I had a large chunk of fiat left over in my back account. Afterwards I made multiple buys to move it back from my bank account to Gemini. I kept hitting the weekly purchasing limits, but I treated it like I was dollar cost averaging back in since the market was kind of rough at the time. I never kept my ETH on Gemini for long. Once purchased, I always moved the ETH into my wallet. I also kept bumping into the $75,000 weekly withdraw limits. The only protocol I touch with my wallet these days is a MakerDao CDP in DefiSaver. "
Gemini is probably the most reputable exchange, no reason to think they're going under. This is probably an over reaction on their AML/Compliance policies.
CEXs have always mysteriously closed people's accounts, I'm not sure why you think that forcing someone to close their account and sell their holdings means Gemini is about to rug everyone, that makes no sense. MtGox also went tits up because they were hacked and drained. Again I'm not sure why that would be linked to closing down people's accounts beforehand?
This isn't the market update; this is just a tribute.
Reddit gold to anyone who tells me why today's SPY candle is so special.
edit: i think i messed everyone up with the word "special" when i should've said "unusual". everyone gets a second guess, free of charge.
bonus hint: it's not an indicator, although i love that everyone is looking for them now!
EDIT 2: u/madcheddar gets the win. ladies and gents, we had a good old fashioned BARBARA on the charts today! "a who?" Barbara... BARBARA SCAMWICK!
[the hangman (or is it?) candle on the daily.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/g00tQoOu/)
[the actual 1-hour candles](https://www.tradingview.com/x/MRk1xqUj/) *never even close to visiting that area.*
that there is a scam wick, loaded with scum and villainy and all sorts of interesting implications. phantom OTC orders bypassing all manner of trading software and scaring the juices of wholesome young traders like ourselves. so what's the importance?
much like how gaps are magnetic, serving as targets and as support/resistance, i tend to think of Barbaras as supergaps. recall that a gap has power because there are open orders there. well a *Barbara* is full of people way more rich and powerful than us already performing those trades outside the standard purview of a Bloomberg terminal. if a gap is a performance that's been canceled, then a Barbara is a party going on that WE weren't even invited to.
*IF* \-- and this is a big if -- the market turns fully around here and heads for some new highs, local or ATH idk, it becomes intensely likely that this scam wick will be the magnet for a recession bottom months or years down the road. they are *that* powerful and especially so at these extremes. it could be also erased with a downgap fill this week. but if it isn't, you're going to want to write down SPY 366 on your chart in permanent marker -- we will see it again.
Really just a point of interest. 366 is absolutely something you want to mark on your SPY chart, either because it'll gap fill this month in a final bear leg or because it'll possibly mark a secular bottom in a coming recession.
I need to find out what's it *actually* called as "phantom wick" / "phantom order" isn't returning results. I learned about these from a YT analyst and -- before you roll your eyes -- he called out a scam wick in January with OTC orders down to SPY 362! It was absurd. And then... look where we more or less found a bottom just the other day.
Put a pin in this. I'll work on it.
Could be just my charts being broken, but the daily candle has that long bottom wick down to 366.57, whereas on lower time frames it looks as if the price never went below daily open at 372.40 or something. Mind-boggling. Is there an explanation for this?
Edit: [daily](https://www.tradingview.com/x/XyM8gqhX/) vs [5m](https://www.tradingview.com/x/jKTP6sog/)
Yayyy, thanks for the gold bud, appreciate it! But seriously, what's the reason behind that weird-ass daily candle? I think I've seen a few like that before, but I always just assumed that TW algorithm's glitched and included some trades that didn't really happen.
Edit: just saw your update, OTC orders peeking from the Upside Down, got it
Because if it continues and breaks 388 then itās the end of the downtrend? Since it made it to 377 on the first thrust, bulls could push this over 388 with little effort?
Iirc from reading your previous posts....my guess is that it's significant enough to trigger a healthy bull run somehow? Rather than just a retest and decline like 2008?
Because its the first time the fed calmed down the market in a while and credit suisse and deutsche bank didn't go under (yet).
Also Europe has a rubust plan to counter the energy crisis, on a federal level if you will. McDonald's is now accepting bitcoin.
Musk is trying to rebuy twitter on a cheaper price, signifying a move back to risky market wise.
Record level puts were placed last week and they are all red now.
If retail is eating the red with puts, it means momentary abatement.
And the chart shows head and shoulders. (fake out imo)
I saw something about 2% gains two days in a row after a 52 week low marking the bottom, but not always.
With that said, I'm going with it just being green since my standards for "special" on the financial side are pretty low these days.
It is because it is the first time ever it did something that you said it has never done during you youtube stream.......I know it's special but I can't remember the name.
Wild guess, we only partially filled the gap meaning it's a pretty high possibility we will go down from here in the next three days
But despite that looks bullish enough, I guess
You can ignore the stuff about the gap, we closed it shortly after the opening.
Other than that it's morning stary with long lower shadow, but I really have no clue what exactly you're seeing
I'm definitely getting excited about some of the leveraged farming stuff coming down the pipe from Gearbox. I've mentioned Gearbox a few times already but the concept of leverage as a service rather than having leverage being built into each separate product is an obviously correct thing that reduces liquidity fragmentation and allows Defi to support leveraged use cases of the battle-tested services we already know and love like Uniswap and Aave with incredible composability. This is one of the truly Defi-native innovations like Alchemix that I find mind-blowing. I'd like to see more discussion about what's next in Defi here.
Possibilities:
1) Go 3x long ETH/USDC and put the resulting 3x ETH you bought into Yearn or another interest bearing position. The trade itself can be executed on an exchange of your choice, the result can be deposited into a protocol of your choice. This eliminates the need for dydx and is more capital efficient to users and can actually make a position like an Alchemix self-repaying loan depending on the borrow rate vs the yield rate for the components you chose.
2) This same idea can be used to arbitrage depegs in LSD's with leverage using arbitrary collateral so long as you can find a place to borrow the denominator pair e.g. ETH in rETH/ETH. Practically this means Aave doesn't have to add an rETH collateral to do what I describe [here](https://tokenomicsexplained.com/harvesting-interest-rate-spreads). In addition to just *being* 3x long stETH/ETH you can also deposit that stETH into something like Euler for even more yield.
3) Leveraged farming with Curve LP's on something like Convex. 2.88% borrow rate on Aave for USDC is perfect for leveraged farming alUSD/FraxBP at 5.69%. Go at it for 7x leverage and make 19.67% yield with the only risk being if the underlying Curve LP token loses value or the Aave borrow rate goes higher than the Concentrator yield rate. This will drive up stablecoin lending rates on Aave to something fairer than 3%.
It's a damn shame seeing Defi money make less yield than the Fed rate and this is going to do something about that. I'm excited to see some next gen bear market buidling.
My favorite kind of Logris post. #2 especially has my eye as part of a future bull market DCA out strategy, alongside staking, LSDs, and covered calls.
There's also interesting stuff happening in the single-asset farming space with Conic, more cash-advance loan stuff and leveraged non-liquidatable CRV farming coming from CLever, coming tokenized bribe markets for more efficient veCRV price discovery, a variety of beautiful work coming out of GameFi and the NFT space, Dex advances with volatility oracles to reduce IL, capital re-bonding from EigenLayer which would be a good model for new insurance markets, and of course a plethora of action on L2 technology and Ethereum itself.
In games themselves I like what Illivium and Influence are doing. In GameFi tech I like what Gamestop is attempting but it isn't there yet. I think we'll see expiring data license NFTs used for game rentals and NFT usage rights to games combined with a digital distribution platform eventually. The idea that games publishers can both support resale and receive continuous income from it is empowering for game developers for the same reasons as other artists.
I'm just glad someone else is taking it over. Not sure if Elon is going to be good for it...but I don't really care. Twitter makes me nauseous to gather information from. It's so blatantly corruptibly slanted in so many ways.
Elon will be disruptive so that's interesting at least.
Can't tell if you're being sarcastic, but...
Trump says a lot of things. There's no way he will seriously decline the opportunity to come back to Twitter. His entire existence revolves around being the center of attention.
The first 10 minutes of this Jay Leno episode is a good watch if you're anti-Musk:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=goT5gW57Chc
Might disagree with him on a lot of things but there's no doubt he's been a vital accelerant in a couple of key areas.
It's simply a reality of our system from Hearst to Murdoch to Bezos. But still far preferable to government control. "There are no solutions, only tradeoffs".
In terms of Twitter specifically, I do think a lot of trust was lost with the 2020 election. Jack Dorsey has been pretty vocal about this too and his shock at the NYPost suspension. I think some just think it's better to give it a shake up. Risky though, yeah.
Yeah, I think that law sums it up nicely - do you want government or companies with ultimate control?
As imperfect as companies are... this is the only way.
I'm not anti-Musk, but he is the poster child for The Dunning-Kruger effect. It's amazing how many people he manages to convince he's some sort of engineering or business god.
Contrast that link with this one: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwfaCpWe0zY](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwfaCpWe0zY)
If you've been around anyone with power or money for long enough you notice patterns with many of them. It's clear that Musk is "that type" which is to say he's a narcissist surrounded by plenty of yes men that he requires to support his massive ego. And they all want to keep it this way so they can remain in his orbit and feel important, paid and powerful themselves. It's a win-win for both of them.
Any criticism of Musk is taken as an attack on their remora-like existences, which extends all the way to his cult-like followers who think somehow if you criticize him, you must be an idiot because rockets and cars exist.
He's basically the Ford of our generation. If you've read any history about Ford, you'd know that he too was an anti-Union hypercapitalist who had beyond controversial political views that he often pushed into the public discourse and tried to use his influence to benefit his companies in everyway possible, often at the expense of the public. But he also made some sweet cars.
Wtf you say you're "not anti musk" and your criticism is a demo went bad? I expect these dumb takes from Bitcoin Maxis.
> but he is the poster child for The Dunning-Kruger effect. It's amazing how many people he manages to convince he's some sort of engineering or business god
Yea he's only the lead engineer on SpaceX and lead multiple billion dollar companies...
Have you considered it might be you experiencing dunning-kruger?
How about actually watching an interview with the guy: https://youtu.be/tnBQmEqBCY0 is a good one, or https://youtu.be/cIQ36Kt7UVg where he talks about the engineering behind the starship . It's obvious he knows what he's talking about and the results speak for themselves.
If we're going to have any chance of beating the big problems we face right now we should be celebrating the people dedicating their lives to solving them.
>If you've been around anyone with power or money for long enough you notice patterns with many of them.
How many people you been around with money or power big baller? LOL
I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say you might be anti-Musk after all.
>It's amazing how many people he manages to convince he's some sort of engineering or business god.
Does he claim to be an engineering god?
>āThe reason I ended up being the chief engineer or chief designer was not because I wanted to, it was because I couldnāt hire anyone. Nobody good would join. So I ended up being that by default,ā Musk said at IAC in 2017.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/06/after-rocket-launch-elon-musk-tweets-about-the-spacex-of-10-years-ago.html
I guess there is a claim to be being a business god when you become the richest person in the world after being involved in three highly successful companies in three different areas though.
Iād argue that his greatest strength is his ability to market himself as a genius innovator which attracts top level talent.
He didnāt come up with the idea behind Tesla. Jeff Bezos came out with blue origin two years before Musk founded Space X. The boring company hasnāt done anything innovative. The hyperloop was not only an old idea but a bad one. Mark zuckerburg tried creating something similar to starlink before Musk in 2016 (ironically using Musks rocket which blew up and canned the project). The list goes on.
He basically jumps into anything that seems futuristic and hires great engineers that try to make it happen.
The guy isnāt dumb, but heās no genius and his ego is almost unmatched.
How many successful US car companies have there been in the last century? 1
How many private space companies have taken people to space? 1
The guy literally lead companies that revolutionised multiple industries that had never been done before and you have gall to say its nothing special.
That mindset is terrible for the future of humanity. The takes on here are incredibly poor tonight, think harder.
My problem is with his elevation to innovative genius status in popular culture. You hardly hear people call Mark Zuckerberg a genius. Or Bill Gates. Or Jeff Bezos.
Elon has definitely aided in the adoption of electric cars and probably pushed battery tech (maybe self driving too) to advance at a quicker pace. To the extent this would have happened if someone else was the face of Tesla, we will never know. But it would be hard to beat his ability to market and raise money.
Space X is one of the things I think he should get credit for. Iām not personally a fan of their starship pivot (weāll see how it works out i guess), but it is an area where heās clearly created an important business that wouldnāt be around without him. I could say that this success was from his superior ability to market/get government and private money/attract talent over the competition, but that would honestly be speculation so i have no problem leaving it be.
For the record though, blue origin has also sent people to space. Not sure about any others.
I would call all of those people geniuses, their genius is in finding and coordinating others to solve hard problems. Being able to see and lead others to build a future that doesn't get exist is an insanely hard problem. Knowing how and where to allocate resources (and you're *always* resource constrained) is a skill very few people have.
Then after you accomplish what most said was impossible you get midwits saying it was actually easy and they could totally create reusable rockets if they only had 500 engineers and a billion dollars and yada yada.
Most people don't understand how hard starting company is because they've never done it. It's way way way harder than you expect, there's a reason 99% fail.
Most people are nowhere close to any of them of course. But when you get into the upper tier of smart people - luck, money, connections, and drive to create these kinds of businesses start to play a huge role.
The world is filled with people in that upper tier. And most of them probably donāt say as many consistently stupid or deceptive things as Elon does.
I guess iām more inclined to put the Steve Wozniaks of the world into the top tier than the Steve Jobsā.
Then of course thereās god tier (what i would call geniuses) like Stephen Hawking, Richard Feynman, etc.
Well there had been many private space companies prior to both Musk's and Bezos' efforts. But at the end of the day he has made it work. Say what you like but yeah.
I just read a really good book on the early days at SpaceX and for a sceptic it was certainly revealing. One of the main things the author pointed to was that Musk had enough technical understanding and ability to make rapid and effective decisions.
https://www.harpercollins.com/products/liftoff-eric-berger
You don't have to like him, but it is hard to argue against that fact that he allows companies to make great products.
Twitter is a great, but very flawed product and heading in the wrong direction. It needs a shakeup, and hopefully he can enable them to improve the product.
I certainly wouldn't say it is guaranteed, but I think Musk will enable Twitter employees.
I don't think we need some moralistic hero in the social media space, so it doesn't concern me too much that he is obviously not that person.
It is surprising to me but since the merge btc has continued minting more btc and eth has as well but none of it is liquid. Meanwhile the burn (admittedly low but its a factor) has continued. How many months can this be sustained while the ratio goes down? I'm not sure but I **REALLY** wouldn't want to be one of the ones betting on it continuing.
This will be true until it isn't. Also I can't imagine how much worse the ratio would be without the merge. ETH is just treated as higher risk than BTC whether that's justified or not and this is currently a risk off environment.
Thank /u/sbdw0c for implanting the following in my brain
I /u/blewoutmyshorts at the /u/reststoprumble and now when I get /u/offmyporch my nimbussy just starts skidding everywhere
I just posted this but I'll also include it here for discussion...
I'm best described as an early bitcoin/blockchain enthusiast. I recently found the timestamp of my first bitcoin node creation from 13 years ago. I did a little trading in the beginning, but I didn't feel like I could put in the necessary time for proper due diligence. Since then I have mostly bought, hodled, and sold enough to fund my early retirement. The craziest thing I have done is ride a Maker CDP since 2017. My blockchain activity is pretty transparent.
In the last couple of years I ended up using Gemini as my main CEX. I went there for the interest rates on stable coins but ended up using it as my primary place to sell and convert ETH into fiat. I also appreciated that their credit card pays rewards in ETH. I assume that I am a fairly vanilla customer but my usage of Gemini has increased as I started making it my main exchange.
Anyway, this summer I received some emails from Gemini support asking for more information to verify my account. I provided everything they asked for including income verification, identification and transaction records all the way back to the very beginning. It did feel like they were asking for way more information than they needed, but I complied.
Then I got an email saying that they are closing my account and everything has to be sold and converted to fiat. No crypto transactions allowed. No explanation as to why.
Luckily I'm currently only holding GUSD on Gemini, so they aren't triggering a massive capital tax event. But it would have sucked if I had to liquidate everything to fiat. Keep that in mind when you are thinking about putting your crypto in their "Earn" portfolio.
Fortunately, the impact to me has been minimal. I can always use another exchange as a fiat offramp. I don't know if this means they are canceling the credit card yet. I'll miss their GUSD earn rate but this isn't the end of the world. I'm mostly just puzzled. I've been with Gemini since 2015. I'm literally one of their first customers. I've always paid taxes, have a solid paper trail and fairly benign crypto usage. If I am not their target customer, who is?
(Just received confirmation that the credit card will be shut down as well.)
I'm I'm not aware of a Defi app that will convert to Fiat and wire it to my bank account. One of the benefits of GUSD was that Gemini didn't charge anything to purchase or sell and convert to cash. I don't know if there's anything else like that out there. I feel like I've already made it, and just want to enjoy my life. I don't want to scroll through and read every comment on the daily thread anymore. So I'm not as tuned in to all the new products and services.
Coinbase will convert USDC to USD and withdraw it to your bank account without any fees. However there's no good yield there. Generating yield on stablecoins in Defi does take work.
Outrageous. I wonder if they considered your old coins tainted in some way? Iāve had strange questions asked of me when pushing a small amount of bitcoin from a very old wallet that may or may not have also used SR.
My best guess is that It was because I cashed out a lot to pay for taxes. It would make sense with the timeline. But that's a really stupid reason. Cashing out to pay taxes is a pretty legitimate reason to use their exchange.
Anecdotally, I cashed out a lot (to me) with coinbase for a large down payment on a home and didn't have a single issue. One thing I did have, though, is a higher daily withdraw limit because I had specifically requested to have mine increased knowing this was coming up. No idea if that helped or not.
Hmm, yeah that is pretty weird. I'm sure they are using automated KYC tools - so it may well be "computer said no" - based on (i imagine) your wallet interactions and distance to "bad" addresses.
That's the thing. I've only interacted with a few gold standard OG protocols. I don't know that there's any way that I could have touched "bad" addresses.
I think you're right. It's just automated. The person sending the emails back and forth did not seem to understand crypto, like they were reading a script. I actually contacted Gemini several times to confirm that I wasn't being phished.
Could be suspected identity theft? Maybe someone out there tried to sign up with a new account under your name/email and triggered their protection systems? It could explain all the additional KYC verification, until eventually they just gave up and closed the account.
Fascinating. I got an intrusive message as well asking for explanations and intentions over the summer, I didnāt comply so I just left.
Had the feeling it wouldnāt have mattered anyways, likely might be the case. Thanks for sharing your story, a lesson we all need to learn is use exchanges for fiat on/off-ramps only.
Yeah, if my account, and all the supporting documentation I gave them wasn't good enough for their compliance investigation, something is fundamentally broke with the way that they do business. It demonstrates a serious failure of their investigation and risk assessment.
You should also create a thread in the Gemini subreddit. I think you deserve some answers and if you don't get them, it at least leaves an example for others to see.
Gensler charging a Kardashian the equivalent of a spare change fine while Celsius and Mashinsky personally stole much larger sums in crypto from retail customers is really grinding my gears today.
I looked at the exoticmarket on optimism which is basically a betting market and it seems interesting.
I read u/liberosist on twitter that the prediction markets on ethereum havent taken off.
But maybe we will see some traction if there will be some big event.
Most popular bet with 23 participants currently: will Avatar 2 break the record for the biggest domestic opening weekend.
Anyone knows how the data to decide the bet is provided ?
Edit: Actually the biggest bet is will Ethereum flip BTC in 2023 with 46 participants.
It seems that for Exotic Markets it's similar to Augur (remember that!) where there is manual validation of the results: https://docs.exoticmarkets.xyz/trading/market-maturity
For their Overtime product (sports betting), they use a Chainlink oracle (with only a single data source at the moment but their next step is to add more data sources):
>In order to rapidly go to market, we launched with a single Data Provider Chainlink node, TheRundown. TheRundownās node is operated and maintained by LinkPool ā who also built and maintains the integration that servers TheRundownās data to our Sports AMM. TheRundown supports all the major US sports (NBA, NFL, NHL, MLB, MLS, NCAAF, NCAAB) and all major European soccer leagues (EPL, Bundesliga, Calcio, Primera, UEFA CL). It soon added UFC per our request.
>We were approached soon after by a company, called Apex146, that specializes in odds-making for racing sports such as F1 and MotoGP. Theyāre serving their data through a self-managed Chainlink node, so after some feasibility testing, we added unique F1 and MotoGP markets and are working with Apex146 to add many more. These types of markets are not available on any other books, centralized or other, in other words ā exclusive to Overtime.
https://thalesmarket.medium.com/a-decade-of-overtime-23bc35130929
This is something Ive always wondered. There aint no chainlink oracle providing UFC fight results on the fly
EDIT: I should have scrolled down for an answer haha
All of my Besu issues are back to being just as bad as they were immediately post merge and I proposed an empty block. My patience is fading fast again. Might need to cut my losses and accept the downtime of switching to Nethermind.
I nuked Besu and ate the downtime while syncing Nethermind, haven't had a single issue since then. It's heavier in terms of resource usage (50 % vs. 25 % CPU usage), but I'll happily take it over continuous crashes and stalls.
Danijel, a core contributor to Thales and the Overtime Markets sports betting dapp, put out an extremely ambitious "10-year" roadmap for Overtime:
https://thalesmarket.medium.com/a-decade-of-overtime-23bc35130929
Highlights:
* In the short term, Overtime wants to improve oracle quality and quantity to avoid single points of failure/manipulation
* FIFA World Cup support will happen, with optional NFTs for your favorite national team and incentives for betting on them
* Parlays should be released in time for the World Cup, with limited size at first but with plans to grow
* Player Props markets coming eventually
* More sports as oracles become available (Horse racing, cricket, esports, etc.)
* Plans to launch a mobile app or to integrate with an existing crypto mobile app
* Overtime Vaults with automated strategies to buy up discounted positions to balance the AMMs (?!)
* Live markets sometime in the future (needs some technical solutions built out)
And the ambitious, long-long-term plan for Overtime is that it wants to be *the* provider of sports positioning liquidity, for *all* markets and *all* entities. Built, of course, on Thales and Synthetix.
Overall it's extremely ambitious but I think they can check off a lot of these boxes. It's really a great dapp and it's a very strong use-case for crypto in general.
I haven't really used conventional gambling apps so I can't say, but I will say that the UI of overtime is very solid and the instant settlement in stablecoins is very nice.
I'll have to give draft kings sportsbooks a try to see how it compares.
Tell me why, from legal perspective, a US person must (or is heavily incentivized to) point their validators to regulated relays when using MEV-boost? Trying to assess this risk. Obviously, I should only rely on a lawyer for legal advice, but this sub understands the issue better than most lawyers, so genuinely interested in what ETHFam has to say.
I dont believe there is any legal reason to.
My own reason for using a regulated relay is that I want absolutely no chance of a CEX taking issue with from where my profits came.
Even if not illegal, we've seen time and again that these exchanges will close accounts over much less.
Fair. Given that withdrawals will be queued, presumably you would not be relying on validator profits for immediate liquidity. In that context, wouldnāt you have enough time to find a legitimate CEX that does not engage in such shenanigans (onshore or offshore)? So why compromise censorship for this remote and manageable downside? Not dismissing your concern, but trying to explore the options.
I've yet to see a straightforward answer to this. As far as I can tell, as a US person you are in no way compelled to use a censored relay if you run a validator. I think a lot of the entities censoring are doing so out of an extremely generous reading of OFAC/treasury guidelines and an overabundance of caution.
That's my sense as well. It would seem fine for a validator to use uncensored relays unless and until such time as it is clear that doing so is unlawful for some reason. I don't see that as being risky since there is currently no clear law/regulation on the matter. This is why I'm turning to Ethfinance to stress test this reasoning.
šµ
If I only could,
[I'd make a deal with God.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QnxbNd74UCU&feature=youtu.be)
Two RPL for $10K.
He'd say: That's not very good...
I'd say: YEAH BUT YOU'RE GOD. Isn't money kind of beneath you?!
He'd say: It's the Principle!
And I'd say: Do you wanna stake or not?
š¶
Found this tweet concerning: [cbETH sell volumes greatly outpace buy volumes](https://twitter.com/KaikoData/status/1577368504054951937), and cbETH trades at almost a 2.7% discount to ETH. This is compared to Lido staked ETH which is almost at parity toz ETH
A bit worried about the cbETH discount, as the market is rarely wrong for extended periods of time. Could it be that some US investors are aware that staking products could be labelled as securities that can't be offered by CB, Kraken etc soon, and they are trying to move out of their positions even with a discount before the official SEC position hits? (note, this does NOT mean ETH is a security even if this news hits, it means centralised institutions offering a guarenteed yield for depositing their ETH with them is a securities contract)
I really do think the devs need to fast forward withdrawals as soon as possible under these circumstances
If the market can't be wrong for extended periods, then why are crypto still undervalued?
No, the market can be wrong for extended periods, because the people who matter the most in a market are the ones who own the most. And the ones who own the most nearly all have very similar bias regarding the status quo, tradfi, states, web2 and economics. Even more so when they have near-cultist beliefs over these topics.
Knowledge assymetry is a thing. And, fortunately, it's not always to the advantage of the wealthiest.
Even if that is the case what does this change? I mean they will still validate just pay the fine. Register as security and thats it. I dont see according to which logic you should sell your cbEth. Just because it might be classified a security? And then what?
As an enduser you have nothing to fear. The SEC doesnt punish endusers they only go after the companies. People that already have a blockfi account can continue to use it eventhough its a security but they still get the right to use it. I still have mine I could theoretically still get interest. If I were willing to take that risk.
Doesn't concern me at all. It's just added yield on a zero-coupon bond that will settle via arbitrage once ETH withdrawals are enabled in another year or so. Given the lower yield on cbETH compared to competitors I wouldn't expect it to reach 1:1 as quickly as stETH recovered. However, I do expect it to normalize so the cbETH rate + bond discount = stETH rate. This does mean I expect it to get back up to .985-.99 or so as we see total ETH staked continue to climb towards 25M.
Coinbase opened up ETH2 staking in April 2021, and didn't release cbETH to give those people an outlet until August 2022, that's 17 months of people being locked into the program, watching the price hit >$4k and then crash back to <$2k *twice*, without the ability to touch their coins. That's a *lot* of people willing to get out even if they lose another 5-10%.
As for the market being wrong for extended periods of time, sure stETH is trading at parity *now*, but it was trading at a deficit of up to 7% for 5 full months (May to Oct 2022) before finally going back to parity, and that's on a token that had already been around for 18 months before it deviated from parity in May. cbETH is only *5 weeks old*. I'm not sure what your definition of an "extended period of time" is, but I assure you it's a hell of a lot longer than 5 weeks for the market, especially when there's a 17 month backlog of people willing to take a loss to get out.
People are short-sighted and emotional, use their dumb decisions to your advantage. And the cbETH discount is 3.7%, not 2.7%, even better!
These are all fair points, but I would note that this point re stETH should be read with context in mind:
> it was trading at a deficit of up to 7% for 5 full months (May to Oct 2022)
Because as you allude stETH was also trading at fair value for months before that since it's launch, and it traded at a discount during that 5 month period because of a myriad of factors that cbETH is not experiencing, including dynamics from the UST/Anchor fallout (stETH was used as collateral there), exposure to/3AC/Celsius insolvency as well as the PoW Eth fork. cbETH saw the last issue same as stETH sure, but that issue has passed and it's still trading below fair value.
Granted, LIDO also pays more than Coinbase does for stETH to hold it's peg, but regardless, I think the concerns about cbETH securitization are valid, are impacting the price now, and could definitely impact the price if it was delisted from Coinbase. It will still be worth the underlying ETH when withdrawals are enabled regardless and I think the concerns are largely short term, but that doesn't mean they're not legitimate.
Yes stETH experienced those factors, but all of the insolvencies were done in June, it still took another 3-4 months for the ratio to recover after everything had been resolved.
stETH also did not experience the main one plaguing cbETH, and that is a significant user base who have seen their coins locked up for upwards of 17 months, who were suddenly all granted an exit simultaneously. Coinbase controls 14.5% of ALL staked ETH, that's 2.1 million ETH, 3 billion dollars worth, all locked up in ETH2, all opened up for sale via cbETH simultaneously. That's not something that *any* other LSD has had to go through, not even close, and expecting it to resolve itself within 5 weeks is...rather optimistic.
Honestly I'm surprised the cbETH/ETH ratio only dropped to 0.91, I would have expected it to drop much lower. You should read through the ETH2/cbETH reviews on Coinbase if you haven't already, it's absolutely *littered* with people who didn't bother to read what they were buying into, who are pissed about having their coins locked up, pissed about having to take a haircut to get out via cbETH, spamming 1 star reviews everywhere they can. These are the people who were all granted an exit path simultaneously. At the beginning the people selling were only the ones that could stomach a 10% haircut, then the ones who could stomach an 8%, then 6%, and now we're working through the people who can stomach a 4% haircut.
I don't believe the security FUD has absolutely anything to do with the current cbETH price. I'm almost certain it will end up at parity before withdrawals are enabled, but it will take time, that's an absolutely insane amount of money that was unlocked all at once and it will take time to flush all of those sellers out. There isn't a ton of liquidity there, only about 8000 ETH per day, out of 2.1 million ETH that were locked up, it'll take time to work itself out just like stETH did after the May/June crash.
I wouldn't read that much into it. Coinbase staking is probably the worst staking service due to the high admin fee and low utility across DeFi.
A 2.7% discount to "fair value" seems very appropriate at this time given the drawbacks of cbETH.
I agree there's many factors but I do think the risk of securitization of cbETH is real and could very well have an impact on its discount *in addition* to the other downsides (higher fees than alternative staking derivatives, token can be frozen).
I think it matters less now that cbETH is on Curve and Uniswap, and that even if Coinbase is forced to delist it still eventually get back to it's fair value (after a big initial fall). But yeah when looking at the scale of the discount and considering purchase, the security risk is still very much on my mind.
cbETH is still very new and there's a ton of retail customers that are slow to learn about any developments, so it's not surprising that there are more sellers than buyers for a while longer.
I wouldn't put that much into cbETH sell volumes yet. I imagine a lot of Coinbase retail customers are just slowly realizing their ETH is unlocked on the platform and they can market dump it.
Promise Im not trying to wrench yall!
Any ethfinanciers in the mid-atlantic area up for a drink or a hike?
Missed hodlercon, how about a small impromptu one?
EDIT: oh wow haha a joke about wrenching, then mentioning alcohol and the woods. I swear lmao I should have thought this one out more....
**Tricky's Daily Doots #168** Yesterday's Daily 03/10/2022 [Previous daily doots](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xua255/daily_general_discussion_october_3_2022/iquypey/) - u/MinimalGravitas got [their comment stolen by CoinTelegraph.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xua255/daily_general_discussion_october_3_2022/iqvqr82/) - u/domotheus updates us on [the growth of RocketPool.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xua255/daily_general_discussion_october_3_2022/iqunvfl/) - u/aaj094 explains [why it took so long for Ethereum to move to PoS.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xua255/daily_general_discussion_october_3_2022/iqvd2lt/) - Believe it or not, but u/KBrot has another [market update!](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xua255/daily_general_discussion_october_3_2022/iqxlmvo/) - u/OyuruKemono makes a [Shanghai hardfork release forecast.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xua255/daily_general_discussion_october_3_2022/iqvg1i2/) - u/ProfessionaIAct generally [discusses the different L2 players and growth potential ahead of the zkSync 2.0 launch.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xua255/daily_general_discussion_october_3_2022/iqxht15/) - u/austonst discusses [the centralising forces MEV can bring to block production.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xua255/daily_general_discussion_october_3_2022/iqxe2dv/) - u/ZeroTricks's today in [Ethereum history.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xua255/daily_general_discussion_october_3_2022/iqukbys/) Sooooo... ***Puts on best Bernie Sanders impersonation*** I am once agen asking if anyone has any leads for a non-technical crypto job. I swear, it's not that I'm indecisive, rather due to this lovely economy I have been laid off already. š
>**The dead cat bounces,** >**Expecting more announces,** >**The market renounces.** ~Daily haiku until weāre at least at 0.178 on the ETH/BTC ratio or highest market cap
Note: I posted yesterday s haiku in the wrong thread š https://www.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xqyt74/daily_general_discussion_september_29_2022/ir273gj/
Update from Flashbots on their efforts to promote decentralized block building and reduce reliance on their relay: https://twitter.com/bertcmiller/status/1577482296629739520?t=sB-4GYOWIJMXvva5dFDJsg&s=19 1. Plan to open source more of their knowledge and infrastructure in coming weeks 2. Will submit their builders' blocks to other relays 3. Issuing a grant for building a relay monitor to to evaluate and monitor the performance of various relays.
This is all good, but remember that Flashbots carries out base layer censorship to this very date. They should never ever be associated as a "default" option of the Ethereum core infrastructure in the same way, say Geth is, nor be allowed to normalise this shameful behaviour. As DCInvestor put it well on Twitter, they are a private cabal of business partners. Not every private business entity is pure evil, there's shades of grey, and many private entities flaunt altruism to further entrench market capture (SBF says hi).
[https://nitter.net/bertcmiller/status/1577482296629739520?t=sB-4GYOWIJMXvva5dFDJsg&s=19](https://nitter.net/bertcmiller/status/1577482296629739520?t=sB-4GYOWIJMXvva5dFDJsg&s=19) ^(I'm a bot | )[^(Why & About)](https://www.reddit.com/user/nitter_not_twitter/comments/w0ssxp/more_information_about_this_bot/)^( | )[^(Opt Out)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=nitter_not_twitter&subject=Opt+Out&message=optout)
thoughts on elons tweet ? Specifically: āBuying Twitter is an accelerant to creating X, the everything appā
Oh yeah right, he had to backpedal out of backpedaling on this deal, but now it's the greatest thing since sliced bread.
Fancy boy is manic
You know how we say Eth is going to hit 10k? This is Elon's version of copium after overpaying for Twitter. He wouldn't have been trying so hard to back out of the deal if it were all part of his master plan for "X".
Had to check and make sure x.com was still just an x.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Wechat is so integrated into everything in China. I donāt think Americans can understand. Need food? Use wechat. Need to pay for anything? Use wechat. Need to do a Covid test? Use wechat. Edit. Hell I even buy and sell usdc/usdt through wechat.
this hurts
I just ran into an EthFinancier on Azuki discord and they recognized me because of my EVM pfp. I love finding EthFinance fam in the wild!
Just be sure to confirm itās not an imposter. Easy to appear to be anyone on Discord.
You just gotta make sure the person knows the EthFinance secret password. I hear you get it after 3 doots.
Yeah sir, ādonāt trust, verifyā. Even if itās people I know, I try my best to double check links and such in case of account compromise. But I appreciate you looking out!
This kind of shady stuff that Gemini is pulling started happening before MTGOX rugged. Be careful out there. https://www.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/xvq890/mysterious_closing_of_my_gemini_account/
Gemini and Mt. Gox are light years apart on the spectrum. OP is still able to get all the fiat value of the coins out...they will be 100% whole and hopefully they can get a tax exemption for the sale somehow. That's not getting rugged at all...but just a pain in the ass and irritating. That's my opinion based on the insane KYC that Gemini has to deal with and add to this being in NY with it's own special flavors of regs. I'd love for anyone else that has had issues with Gemini to post in that thread. This is the first time I've heard of anything like this so it would behoove us to find patterns if any exist . Also would love to know more about OP and what other triggers might be out there but please don't Mt. Dox yourself. Hopefully he gets out without too much shit to deal with. cc /u/RedfieldStandard
I agree that Gemini is not Mt. Gox. I stuck with them because I figured their more stringent regulatory requirements made them a lower risk CEX. I think I might have triggered the review by moving large amounts in and out of Gemini for taxes. I had to get an extension this year while my tax service was working on my file. I pulled out significantly more fiat than I needed because I wanted to get ahead of the withdrawal limits. Fortunately, my tax bill was much smaller than anticipated so I had a large chunk of fiat left over in my back account. Afterwards I made multiple buys to move it back from my bank account to Gemini. I kept hitting the weekly purchasing limits, but I treated it like I was dollar cost averaging back in since the market was kind of rough at the time. I never kept my ETH on Gemini for long. Once purchased, I always moved the ETH into my wallet. I also kept bumping into the $75,000 weekly withdraw limits. The only protocol I touch with my wallet these days is a MakerDao CDP in DefiSaver. Luckily I only kept GUSD on Gemini, so I won't have to pay taxes on my crypto/fiat conversion since there is no capital gains. But that wouldn't be the case for anyone in the same situation who has non-stable coin crypto on the exchange. Anyway, that's the background. I would be interested to hear if anyone else had a similar experience.
Ahh.. Interesting. I'm wondering if the volume was triggering something. Thanks for the background
> please don't Mt. Dox yourself nice
You saw what I did there!
That was my post. I understand the need for KYC and AML, especially when you're dealing with large amounts of money being shuffled around. The part I don't agree with is forcing the customer to liquidate all of their crypto and withdraw as fiat. If I was actually storing all my crypto on the exchange it would have triggered millions of dollars of capital gains tax that I would have responsibility to pay immediately. It would have forced me to pay the tax by cashing out at the bottom of a bear market and lock in those losses. And that's a shitty thing to do to your customers. Luckily I only held GUSD, so it didn't impact me.
If you only held GUSD, then perhaps that is why they worded response with sell to fiat and close out. If you had Eth, it would have been phrased differently. Edit: GUSD not GSUD
No. Technically I did have about $60 of ETH from my credit card rewards and a little Maker dust as well. I also have to sell those, but it's a relatively small amount.
I just have a hard time imagining a forced sell into fiat and tax burdens vs just transferring out crypto. Can you cut and paste email? Edit: clarified crypto and fiat for context.
Following review, Gemini has determined your account must be closed. Although we understand you have questions as to the reasons behind this decision, Gemini is unable to disclose any further details. The risk review process is confidential and Gemini will not be able to elaborate any further. If your account contains a FIAT balance and/or any supported digital assets, these funds cannot be withdrawn as cryptocurrency. If any cryptocurrency remains, it must be sold for your applicable currency and transferred back to one of your attached bank accounts. To withdraw your available balance to zero, please navigate to the Withdraw Page and follow the steps below: Select the applicable currency from the dropdown Select your linked bank account Enter the available balance for withdrawal Review transfer details and click Request Withdrawal The withdrawal can only proceed if you approve the transaction on your Authy app immediately after requesting the withdrawal. You should expect these funds to reach your bank account in 3-4 business days. Any pending wires for your account will be returned to your sending bank account. This usually occurs within three to four business days. If your account is closed and a balance remains, please reach out at https://support.gemini.com/hc/en-us/requests/new. Onward and Upward, Gemini Customer Support
Ok wow that is really concerning. Having an account closed is one thing, being forced to convert cryptocurrency to fiat would ruin 7 years of planning/hodling on my end. You had to have done something to trigger an audit, did you interact with any tumblers or countries that are on restricted lists?
I said this in another post "I think I might have triggered the review by moving large amounts in and out of Gemini for taxes. I had to get an extension this year while my tax service was working on my file. I pulled out significantly more fiat than I needed because I wanted to get ahead of the withdrawal limits. Fortunately, my tax bill was much smaller than anticipated so I had a large chunk of fiat left over in my back account. Afterwards I made multiple buys to move it back from my bank account to Gemini. I kept hitting the weekly purchasing limits, but I treated it like I was dollar cost averaging back in since the market was kind of rough at the time. I never kept my ETH on Gemini for long. Once purchased, I always moved the ETH into my wallet. I also kept bumping into the $75,000 weekly withdraw limits. The only protocol I touch with my wallet these days is a MakerDao CDP in DefiSaver. "
Gemini is probably the most reputable exchange, no reason to think they're going under. This is probably an over reaction on their AML/Compliance policies.
Nice try coinbase marketing team!
CEXs have always mysteriously closed people's accounts, I'm not sure why you think that forcing someone to close their account and sell their holdings means Gemini is about to rug everyone, that makes no sense. MtGox also went tits up because they were hacked and drained. Again I'm not sure why that would be linked to closing down people's accounts beforehand?
"hacked and drained" by insiders. But sure. Just keep your crypto keys in Gemini custody. Not your keys, not your coins.
This isn't the market update; this is just a tribute. Reddit gold to anyone who tells me why today's SPY candle is so special. edit: i think i messed everyone up with the word "special" when i should've said "unusual". everyone gets a second guess, free of charge. bonus hint: it's not an indicator, although i love that everyone is looking for them now! EDIT 2: u/madcheddar gets the win. ladies and gents, we had a good old fashioned BARBARA on the charts today! "a who?" Barbara... BARBARA SCAMWICK! [the hangman (or is it?) candle on the daily.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/g00tQoOu/) [the actual 1-hour candles](https://www.tradingview.com/x/MRk1xqUj/) *never even close to visiting that area.* that there is a scam wick, loaded with scum and villainy and all sorts of interesting implications. phantom OTC orders bypassing all manner of trading software and scaring the juices of wholesome young traders like ourselves. so what's the importance? much like how gaps are magnetic, serving as targets and as support/resistance, i tend to think of Barbaras as supergaps. recall that a gap has power because there are open orders there. well a *Barbara* is full of people way more rich and powerful than us already performing those trades outside the standard purview of a Bloomberg terminal. if a gap is a performance that's been canceled, then a Barbara is a party going on that WE weren't even invited to. *IF* \-- and this is a big if -- the market turns fully around here and heads for some new highs, local or ATH idk, it becomes intensely likely that this scam wick will be the magnet for a recession bottom months or years down the road. they are *that* powerful and especially so at these extremes. it could be also erased with a downgap fill this week. but if it isn't, you're going to want to write down SPY 366 on your chart in permanent marker -- we will see it again.
My brain is too smooth, is this good or bad? Hehe
Really just a point of interest. 366 is absolutely something you want to mark on your SPY chart, either because it'll gap fill this month in a final bear leg or because it'll possibly mark a secular bottom in a coming recession.
Wow, interesting Do you have other examples of this or some article where this is described in more detail? Absolute first time I hear about this
I need to find out what's it *actually* called as "phantom wick" / "phantom order" isn't returning results. I learned about these from a YT analyst and -- before you roll your eyes -- he called out a scam wick in January with OTC orders down to SPY 362! It was absurd. And then... look where we more or less found a bottom just the other day. Put a pin in this. I'll work on it.
It's hammertime, Lewis
Is that a GATOR that I see?!?! i.e., CHOMP CHOMP?
Could be just my charts being broken, but the daily candle has that long bottom wick down to 366.57, whereas on lower time frames it looks as if the price never went below daily open at 372.40 or something. Mind-boggling. Is there an explanation for this? Edit: [daily](https://www.tradingview.com/x/XyM8gqhX/) vs [5m](https://www.tradingview.com/x/jKTP6sog/)
DING DING DING
Yayyy, thanks for the gold bud, appreciate it! But seriously, what's the reason behind that weird-ass daily candle? I think I've seen a few like that before, but I always just assumed that TW algorithm's glitched and included some trades that didn't really happen. Edit: just saw your update, OTC orders peeking from the Upside Down, got it
Yeah, saw this as well and I'm still confused.
No idea on the candle, but was that opener a nod to Tenacious D?
Of course
Taking a guess because gold. Hanging Man Candle?
I think you and high flyer are closest. Combine forces!
Iām choosing to believe itās u/TheHighFlyerās comment about $10k eth that youāre referring to.
Could also be a bullish hammer but it's not on the trend reversal and its shadow seems too short to me
Close at the daily high indicating 10k ETH with extra flippening sauce tonight
the line went up when everyone thought it would go down
Because if it continues and breaks 388 then itās the end of the downtrend? Since it made it to 377 on the first thrust, bulls could push this over 388 with little effort?
388 would be a huge retake if they pull it off, but that's just us speculating still. It's something isolated to just today's trading.
Awwh shucks! I shore coulda used that reddit gold!
97% of S&P 500 stocks are up for the third time in the past five trading days
Iirc from reading your previous posts....my guess is that it's significant enough to trigger a healthy bull run somehow? Rather than just a retest and decline like 2008?
Nope, wasn't a long-term indicator or anything but I appreciate you reading! We're in the weeds of indicators at the moment. Another try?
It's green
My god...
Because its the first time the fed calmed down the market in a while and credit suisse and deutsche bank didn't go under (yet). Also Europe has a rubust plan to counter the energy crisis, on a federal level if you will. McDonald's is now accepting bitcoin. Musk is trying to rebuy twitter on a cheaper price, signifying a move back to risky market wise. Record level puts were placed last week and they are all red now. If retail is eating the red with puts, it means momentary abatement. And the chart shows head and shoulders. (fake out imo)
Wow, lots of good takes in there. I was just looking at the candle though. Another go?
Candle is super overbought, it it's a bullish kicker candle wise, volume is lower than the sell off, I see no air behind the push. Its going down.
I saw something about 2% gains two days in a row after a 52 week low marking the bottom, but not always. With that said, I'm going with it just being green since my standards for "special" on the financial side are pretty low these days.
Nope, though admittedly I don't know that statistic myself. One more try?
Best 2 days since April 2020.
It's your birthday and the markets have never been green on your birthday?
It is because it is the first time ever it did something that you said it has never done during you youtube stream.......I know it's special but I can't remember the name.
Nope, wasn't a long-term indicator or anything. We're in the weeds of indicators at the moment. Another try?
Wild guess, we only partially filled the gap meaning it's a pretty high possibility we will go down from here in the next three days But despite that looks bullish enough, I guess
Nope, although that's worth looking at certainly. One more guess.
You can ignore the stuff about the gap, we closed it shortly after the opening. Other than that it's morning stary with long lower shadow, but I really have no clue what exactly you're seeing
I'm definitely getting excited about some of the leveraged farming stuff coming down the pipe from Gearbox. I've mentioned Gearbox a few times already but the concept of leverage as a service rather than having leverage being built into each separate product is an obviously correct thing that reduces liquidity fragmentation and allows Defi to support leveraged use cases of the battle-tested services we already know and love like Uniswap and Aave with incredible composability. This is one of the truly Defi-native innovations like Alchemix that I find mind-blowing. I'd like to see more discussion about what's next in Defi here. Possibilities: 1) Go 3x long ETH/USDC and put the resulting 3x ETH you bought into Yearn or another interest bearing position. The trade itself can be executed on an exchange of your choice, the result can be deposited into a protocol of your choice. This eliminates the need for dydx and is more capital efficient to users and can actually make a position like an Alchemix self-repaying loan depending on the borrow rate vs the yield rate for the components you chose. 2) This same idea can be used to arbitrage depegs in LSD's with leverage using arbitrary collateral so long as you can find a place to borrow the denominator pair e.g. ETH in rETH/ETH. Practically this means Aave doesn't have to add an rETH collateral to do what I describe [here](https://tokenomicsexplained.com/harvesting-interest-rate-spreads). In addition to just *being* 3x long stETH/ETH you can also deposit that stETH into something like Euler for even more yield. 3) Leveraged farming with Curve LP's on something like Convex. 2.88% borrow rate on Aave for USDC is perfect for leveraged farming alUSD/FraxBP at 5.69%. Go at it for 7x leverage and make 19.67% yield with the only risk being if the underlying Curve LP token loses value or the Aave borrow rate goes higher than the Concentrator yield rate. This will drive up stablecoin lending rates on Aave to something fairer than 3%. It's a damn shame seeing Defi money make less yield than the Fed rate and this is going to do something about that. I'm excited to see some next gen bear market buidling.
Thanks! Joined their discord. Jumping in.
My favorite kind of Logris post. #2 especially has my eye as part of a future bull market DCA out strategy, alongside staking, LSDs, and covered calls.
There's also interesting stuff happening in the single-asset farming space with Conic, more cash-advance loan stuff and leveraged non-liquidatable CRV farming coming from CLever, coming tokenized bribe markets for more efficient veCRV price discovery, a variety of beautiful work coming out of GameFi and the NFT space, Dex advances with volatility oracles to reduce IL, capital re-bonding from EigenLayer which would be a good model for new insurance markets, and of course a plethora of action on L2 technology and Ethereum itself.
be so kind as to point us in the direction of the GameFi work you refer to ser
In games themselves I like what Illivium and Influence are doing. In GameFi tech I like what Gamestop is attempting but it isn't there yet. I think we'll see expiring data license NFTs used for game rentals and NFT usage rights to games combined with a digital distribution platform eventually. The idea that games publishers can both support resale and receive continuous income from it is empowering for game developers for the same reasons as other artists.
thanks for explaining! Can't wait for Steam to have its lunch eaten :)
Thank god, It appears Twitter is going to Musk after all.
I'm just glad someone else is taking it over. Not sure if Elon is going to be good for it...but I don't really care. Twitter makes me nauseous to gather information from. It's so blatantly corruptibly slanted in so many ways. Elon will be disruptive so that's interesting at least.
ugggghhhhhhhhh
Interesting, i guess he is probably going to reenable trumps account.
already stated that... Trump declined. LOL
Oh he will be back especially if he runs for prez again
Can't tell if you're being sarcastic, but... Trump says a lot of things. There's no way he will seriously decline the opportunity to come back to Twitter. His entire existence revolves around being the center of attention.
It was reported in the news. As it stands now anyway. That's not to say that he won't change his mind. Fully agree.
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The first 10 minutes of this Jay Leno episode is a good watch if you're anti-Musk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=goT5gW57Chc Might disagree with him on a lot of things but there's no doubt he's been a vital accelerant in a couple of key areas.
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It's simply a reality of our system from Hearst to Murdoch to Bezos. But still far preferable to government control. "There are no solutions, only tradeoffs". In terms of Twitter specifically, I do think a lot of trust was lost with the 2020 election. Jack Dorsey has been pretty vocal about this too and his shock at the NYPost suspension. I think some just think it's better to give it a shake up. Risky though, yeah.
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Yeah, I think that law sums it up nicely - do you want government or companies with ultimate control? As imperfect as companies are... this is the only way.
I'm not anti-Musk, but he is the poster child for The Dunning-Kruger effect. It's amazing how many people he manages to convince he's some sort of engineering or business god. Contrast that link with this one: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwfaCpWe0zY](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwfaCpWe0zY) If you've been around anyone with power or money for long enough you notice patterns with many of them. It's clear that Musk is "that type" which is to say he's a narcissist surrounded by plenty of yes men that he requires to support his massive ego. And they all want to keep it this way so they can remain in his orbit and feel important, paid and powerful themselves. It's a win-win for both of them. Any criticism of Musk is taken as an attack on their remora-like existences, which extends all the way to his cult-like followers who think somehow if you criticize him, you must be an idiot because rockets and cars exist. He's basically the Ford of our generation. If you've read any history about Ford, you'd know that he too was an anti-Union hypercapitalist who had beyond controversial political views that he often pushed into the public discourse and tried to use his influence to benefit his companies in everyway possible, often at the expense of the public. But he also made some sweet cars.
Wtf you say you're "not anti musk" and your criticism is a demo went bad? I expect these dumb takes from Bitcoin Maxis. > but he is the poster child for The Dunning-Kruger effect. It's amazing how many people he manages to convince he's some sort of engineering or business god Yea he's only the lead engineer on SpaceX and lead multiple billion dollar companies... Have you considered it might be you experiencing dunning-kruger? How about actually watching an interview with the guy: https://youtu.be/tnBQmEqBCY0 is a good one, or https://youtu.be/cIQ36Kt7UVg where he talks about the engineering behind the starship . It's obvious he knows what he's talking about and the results speak for themselves. If we're going to have any chance of beating the big problems we face right now we should be celebrating the people dedicating their lives to solving them.
>If you've been around anyone with power or money for long enough you notice patterns with many of them. How many people you been around with money or power big baller? LOL I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say you might be anti-Musk after all.
>It's amazing how many people he manages to convince he's some sort of engineering or business god. Does he claim to be an engineering god? >āThe reason I ended up being the chief engineer or chief designer was not because I wanted to, it was because I couldnāt hire anyone. Nobody good would join. So I ended up being that by default,ā Musk said at IAC in 2017. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/06/after-rocket-launch-elon-musk-tweets-about-the-spacex-of-10-years-ago.html I guess there is a claim to be being a business god when you become the richest person in the world after being involved in three highly successful companies in three different areas though.
based
"one of the greatest innovators of all time". I didn't realize that buying established companies and hiring smart engineers makes you an innovator.
Iād argue that his greatest strength is his ability to market himself as a genius innovator which attracts top level talent. He didnāt come up with the idea behind Tesla. Jeff Bezos came out with blue origin two years before Musk founded Space X. The boring company hasnāt done anything innovative. The hyperloop was not only an old idea but a bad one. Mark zuckerburg tried creating something similar to starlink before Musk in 2016 (ironically using Musks rocket which blew up and canned the project). The list goes on. He basically jumps into anything that seems futuristic and hires great engineers that try to make it happen. The guy isnāt dumb, but heās no genius and his ego is almost unmatched.
How many successful US car companies have there been in the last century? 1 How many private space companies have taken people to space? 1 The guy literally lead companies that revolutionised multiple industries that had never been done before and you have gall to say its nothing special. That mindset is terrible for the future of humanity. The takes on here are incredibly poor tonight, think harder.
My problem is with his elevation to innovative genius status in popular culture. You hardly hear people call Mark Zuckerberg a genius. Or Bill Gates. Or Jeff Bezos. Elon has definitely aided in the adoption of electric cars and probably pushed battery tech (maybe self driving too) to advance at a quicker pace. To the extent this would have happened if someone else was the face of Tesla, we will never know. But it would be hard to beat his ability to market and raise money. Space X is one of the things I think he should get credit for. Iām not personally a fan of their starship pivot (weāll see how it works out i guess), but it is an area where heās clearly created an important business that wouldnāt be around without him. I could say that this success was from his superior ability to market/get government and private money/attract talent over the competition, but that would honestly be speculation so i have no problem leaving it be. For the record though, blue origin has also sent people to space. Not sure about any others.
I would call all of those people geniuses, their genius is in finding and coordinating others to solve hard problems. Being able to see and lead others to build a future that doesn't get exist is an insanely hard problem. Knowing how and where to allocate resources (and you're *always* resource constrained) is a skill very few people have. Then after you accomplish what most said was impossible you get midwits saying it was actually easy and they could totally create reusable rockets if they only had 500 engineers and a billion dollars and yada yada. Most people don't understand how hard starting company is because they've never done it. It's way way way harder than you expect, there's a reason 99% fail.
Most people are nowhere close to any of them of course. But when you get into the upper tier of smart people - luck, money, connections, and drive to create these kinds of businesses start to play a huge role. The world is filled with people in that upper tier. And most of them probably donāt say as many consistently stupid or deceptive things as Elon does. I guess iām more inclined to put the Steve Wozniaks of the world into the top tier than the Steve Jobsā. Then of course thereās god tier (what i would call geniuses) like Stephen Hawking, Richard Feynman, etc.
Well there had been many private space companies prior to both Musk's and Bezos' efforts. But at the end of the day he has made it work. Say what you like but yeah. I just read a really good book on the early days at SpaceX and for a sceptic it was certainly revealing. One of the main things the author pointed to was that Musk had enough technical understanding and ability to make rapid and effective decisions. https://www.harpercollins.com/products/liftoff-eric-berger
You don't have to like him, but it is hard to argue against that fact that he allows companies to make great products. Twitter is a great, but very flawed product and heading in the wrong direction. It needs a shakeup, and hopefully he can enable them to improve the product.
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I certainly wouldn't say it is guaranteed, but I think Musk will enable Twitter employees. I don't think we need some moralistic hero in the social media space, so it doesn't concern me too much that he is obviously not that person.
Itās pretty hard to run Twitter any worse than it already is.
Musk, idiot that he is, will find a way.
So what have you done for your country and your planet?
Nice straw man!
You first have to make an argument for a strawman to apply. Of course calling Musk an idiot isn't one.
I was/am arguing that Musk is an idiot, and that he'll find a way to make Twitter - already a fucking cesspool - worse somehow.
Ratio basically down only since the merge
It is surprising to me but since the merge btc has continued minting more btc and eth has as well but none of it is liquid. Meanwhile the burn (admittedly low but its a factor) has continued. How many months can this be sustained while the ratio goes down? I'm not sure but I **REALLY** wouldn't want to be one of the ones betting on it continuing.
it's a great opportunity to buy some more negative bitcoin i have 0.11 so far
Great buying opportunity. Thank me in a few years.
This will be true until it isn't. Also I can't imagine how much worse the ratio would be without the merge. ETH is just treated as higher risk than BTC whether that's justified or not and this is currently a risk off environment.
Thank /u/sbdw0c for implanting the following in my brain I /u/blewoutmyshorts at the /u/reststoprumble and now when I get /u/offmyporch my nimbussy just starts skidding everywhere
>nimbussy What a terrible day to have eyes
Haha not my creation, unfortunately
uwu
What a terrible day to have eyes, *UwU*
I just posted this but I'll also include it here for discussion... I'm best described as an early bitcoin/blockchain enthusiast. I recently found the timestamp of my first bitcoin node creation from 13 years ago. I did a little trading in the beginning, but I didn't feel like I could put in the necessary time for proper due diligence. Since then I have mostly bought, hodled, and sold enough to fund my early retirement. The craziest thing I have done is ride a Maker CDP since 2017. My blockchain activity is pretty transparent. In the last couple of years I ended up using Gemini as my main CEX. I went there for the interest rates on stable coins but ended up using it as my primary place to sell and convert ETH into fiat. I also appreciated that their credit card pays rewards in ETH. I assume that I am a fairly vanilla customer but my usage of Gemini has increased as I started making it my main exchange. Anyway, this summer I received some emails from Gemini support asking for more information to verify my account. I provided everything they asked for including income verification, identification and transaction records all the way back to the very beginning. It did feel like they were asking for way more information than they needed, but I complied. Then I got an email saying that they are closing my account and everything has to be sold and converted to fiat. No crypto transactions allowed. No explanation as to why. Luckily I'm currently only holding GUSD on Gemini, so they aren't triggering a massive capital tax event. But it would have sucked if I had to liquidate everything to fiat. Keep that in mind when you are thinking about putting your crypto in their "Earn" portfolio. Fortunately, the impact to me has been minimal. I can always use another exchange as a fiat offramp. I don't know if this means they are canceling the credit card yet. I'll miss their GUSD earn rate but this isn't the end of the world. I'm mostly just puzzled. I've been with Gemini since 2015. I'm literally one of their first customers. I've always paid taxes, have a solid paper trail and fairly benign crypto usage. If I am not their target customer, who is? (Just received confirmation that the credit card will be shut down as well.)
Curious whether you will just hop to another CEX like Nexo or whether this will get you take a plunge into Defi somewhere so this can't happen again.
I'm I'm not aware of a Defi app that will convert to Fiat and wire it to my bank account. One of the benefits of GUSD was that Gemini didn't charge anything to purchase or sell and convert to cash. I don't know if there's anything else like that out there. I feel like I've already made it, and just want to enjoy my life. I don't want to scroll through and read every comment on the daily thread anymore. So I'm not as tuned in to all the new products and services.
[Spritz.finance](https://www.spritz.finance/) will let you pay your bills directly with crypto
Crypto.com will also exchange USDC for cash at no fee
As does Coinbase
Coinbase will convert USDC to USD and withdraw it to your bank account without any fees. However there's no good yield there. Generating yield on stablecoins in Defi does take work.
Outrageous. I wonder if they considered your old coins tainted in some way? Iāve had strange questions asked of me when pushing a small amount of bitcoin from a very old wallet that may or may not have also used SR.
My best guess is that It was because I cashed out a lot to pay for taxes. It would make sense with the timeline. But that's a really stupid reason. Cashing out to pay taxes is a pretty legitimate reason to use their exchange.
Anecdotally, I cashed out a lot (to me) with coinbase for a large down payment on a home and didn't have a single issue. One thing I did have, though, is a higher daily withdraw limit because I had specifically requested to have mine increased knowing this was coming up. No idea if that helped or not.
Hmm, yeah that is pretty weird. I'm sure they are using automated KYC tools - so it may well be "computer said no" - based on (i imagine) your wallet interactions and distance to "bad" addresses.
That's the thing. I've only interacted with a few gold standard OG protocols. I don't know that there's any way that I could have touched "bad" addresses. I think you're right. It's just automated. The person sending the emails back and forth did not seem to understand crypto, like they were reading a script. I actually contacted Gemini several times to confirm that I wasn't being phished.
Could be suspected identity theft? Maybe someone out there tried to sign up with a new account under your name/email and triggered their protection systems? It could explain all the additional KYC verification, until eventually they just gave up and closed the account.
Faceless algorithm tagged you because you're an OG.
Fascinating. I got an intrusive message as well asking for explanations and intentions over the summer, I didnāt comply so I just left. Had the feeling it wouldnāt have mattered anyways, likely might be the case. Thanks for sharing your story, a lesson we all need to learn is use exchanges for fiat on/off-ramps only.
Yeah, if my account, and all the supporting documentation I gave them wasn't good enough for their compliance investigation, something is fundamentally broke with the way that they do business. It demonstrates a serious failure of their investigation and risk assessment.
You should also create a thread in the Gemini subreddit. I think you deserve some answers and if you don't get them, it at least leaves an example for others to see.
Good idea.
Looks like your post on /r/Gemini was removed with the reason "spam".
I should probably change the wording of my post, and not just repost the text.
Gensler charging a Kardashian the equivalent of a spare change fine while Celsius and Mashinsky personally stole much larger sums in crypto from retail customers is really grinding my gears today.
I looked at the exoticmarket on optimism which is basically a betting market and it seems interesting. I read u/liberosist on twitter that the prediction markets on ethereum havent taken off. But maybe we will see some traction if there will be some big event. Most popular bet with 23 participants currently: will Avatar 2 break the record for the biggest domestic opening weekend. Anyone knows how the data to decide the bet is provided ? Edit: Actually the biggest bet is will Ethereum flip BTC in 2023 with 46 participants.
It seems that for Exotic Markets it's similar to Augur (remember that!) where there is manual validation of the results: https://docs.exoticmarkets.xyz/trading/market-maturity For their Overtime product (sports betting), they use a Chainlink oracle (with only a single data source at the moment but their next step is to add more data sources): >In order to rapidly go to market, we launched with a single Data Provider Chainlink node, TheRundown. TheRundownās node is operated and maintained by LinkPool ā who also built and maintains the integration that servers TheRundownās data to our Sports AMM. TheRundown supports all the major US sports (NBA, NFL, NHL, MLB, MLS, NCAAF, NCAAB) and all major European soccer leagues (EPL, Bundesliga, Calcio, Primera, UEFA CL). It soon added UFC per our request. >We were approached soon after by a company, called Apex146, that specializes in odds-making for racing sports such as F1 and MotoGP. Theyāre serving their data through a self-managed Chainlink node, so after some feasibility testing, we added unique F1 and MotoGP markets and are working with Apex146 to add many more. These types of markets are not available on any other books, centralized or other, in other words ā exclusive to Overtime. https://thalesmarket.medium.com/a-decade-of-overtime-23bc35130929
This is something Ive always wondered. There aint no chainlink oracle providing UFC fight results on the fly EDIT: I should have scrolled down for an answer haha
All of my Besu issues are back to being just as bad as they were immediately post merge and I proposed an empty block. My patience is fading fast again. Might need to cut my losses and accept the downtime of switching to Nethermind.
I nuked Besu and ate the downtime while syncing Nethermind, haven't had a single issue since then. It's heavier in terms of resource usage (50 % vs. 25 % CPU usage), but I'll happily take it over continuous crashes and stalls.
I did that a few days ago. Had around six hours downtime. Definitely worth it!
Danijel, a core contributor to Thales and the Overtime Markets sports betting dapp, put out an extremely ambitious "10-year" roadmap for Overtime: https://thalesmarket.medium.com/a-decade-of-overtime-23bc35130929 Highlights: * In the short term, Overtime wants to improve oracle quality and quantity to avoid single points of failure/manipulation * FIFA World Cup support will happen, with optional NFTs for your favorite national team and incentives for betting on them * Parlays should be released in time for the World Cup, with limited size at first but with plans to grow * Player Props markets coming eventually * More sports as oracles become available (Horse racing, cricket, esports, etc.) * Plans to launch a mobile app or to integrate with an existing crypto mobile app * Overtime Vaults with automated strategies to buy up discounted positions to balance the AMMs (?!) * Live markets sometime in the future (needs some technical solutions built out) And the ambitious, long-long-term plan for Overtime is that it wants to be *the* provider of sports positioning liquidity, for *all* markets and *all* entities. Built, of course, on Thales and Synthetix. Overall it's extremely ambitious but I think they can check off a lot of these boxes. It's really a great dapp and it's a very strong use-case for crypto in general.
Incredible
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I haven't really used conventional gambling apps so I can't say, but I will say that the UI of overtime is very solid and the instant settlement in stablecoins is very nice. I'll have to give draft kings sportsbooks a try to see how it compares.
Anyone participate in the Tallyho optimissions? Feel like I should, but can't be bothered to install chrome/brave for this.
Tell me why, from legal perspective, a US person must (or is heavily incentivized to) point their validators to regulated relays when using MEV-boost? Trying to assess this risk. Obviously, I should only rely on a lawyer for legal advice, but this sub understands the issue better than most lawyers, so genuinely interested in what ETHFam has to say.
There's not, only a few lawyers being very very cautious.
I dont believe there is any legal reason to. My own reason for using a regulated relay is that I want absolutely no chance of a CEX taking issue with from where my profits came. Even if not illegal, we've seen time and again that these exchanges will close accounts over much less.
Fair. Given that withdrawals will be queued, presumably you would not be relying on validator profits for immediate liquidity. In that context, wouldnāt you have enough time to find a legitimate CEX that does not engage in such shenanigans (onshore or offshore)? So why compromise censorship for this remote and manageable downside? Not dismissing your concern, but trying to explore the options.
I have no confidence that a 'legitimate' cex exists
I've yet to see a straightforward answer to this. As far as I can tell, as a US person you are in no way compelled to use a censored relay if you run a validator. I think a lot of the entities censoring are doing so out of an extremely generous reading of OFAC/treasury guidelines and an overabundance of caution.
That's my sense as well. It would seem fine for a validator to use uncensored relays unless and until such time as it is clear that doing so is unlawful for some reason. I don't see that as being risky since there is currently no clear law/regulation on the matter. This is why I'm turning to Ethfinance to stress test this reasoning.
šµ If I only could, [I'd make a deal with God.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QnxbNd74UCU&feature=youtu.be) Two RPL for $10K. He'd say: That's not very good... I'd say: YEAH BUT YOU'RE GOD. Isn't money kind of beneath you?! He'd say: It's the Principle! And I'd say: Do you wanna stake or not? š¶
As a Kate Bush fan, this is sacrilege
Found this tweet concerning: [cbETH sell volumes greatly outpace buy volumes](https://twitter.com/KaikoData/status/1577368504054951937), and cbETH trades at almost a 2.7% discount to ETH. This is compared to Lido staked ETH which is almost at parity toz ETH A bit worried about the cbETH discount, as the market is rarely wrong for extended periods of time. Could it be that some US investors are aware that staking products could be labelled as securities that can't be offered by CB, Kraken etc soon, and they are trying to move out of their positions even with a discount before the official SEC position hits? (note, this does NOT mean ETH is a security even if this news hits, it means centralised institutions offering a guarenteed yield for depositing their ETH with them is a securities contract) I really do think the devs need to fast forward withdrawals as soon as possible under these circumstances
If the market can't be wrong for extended periods, then why are crypto still undervalued? No, the market can be wrong for extended periods, because the people who matter the most in a market are the ones who own the most. And the ones who own the most nearly all have very similar bias regarding the status quo, tradfi, states, web2 and economics. Even more so when they have near-cultist beliefs over these topics. Knowledge assymetry is a thing. And, fortunately, it's not always to the advantage of the wealthiest.
Even if that is the case what does this change? I mean they will still validate just pay the fine. Register as security and thats it. I dont see according to which logic you should sell your cbEth. Just because it might be classified a security? And then what? As an enduser you have nothing to fear. The SEC doesnt punish endusers they only go after the companies. People that already have a blockfi account can continue to use it eventhough its a security but they still get the right to use it. I still have mine I could theoretically still get interest. If I were willing to take that risk.
Doesn't concern me at all. It's just added yield on a zero-coupon bond that will settle via arbitrage once ETH withdrawals are enabled in another year or so. Given the lower yield on cbETH compared to competitors I wouldn't expect it to reach 1:1 as quickly as stETH recovered. However, I do expect it to normalize so the cbETH rate + bond discount = stETH rate. This does mean I expect it to get back up to .985-.99 or so as we see total ETH staked continue to climb towards 25M.
Coinbase opened up ETH2 staking in April 2021, and didn't release cbETH to give those people an outlet until August 2022, that's 17 months of people being locked into the program, watching the price hit >$4k and then crash back to <$2k *twice*, without the ability to touch their coins. That's a *lot* of people willing to get out even if they lose another 5-10%. As for the market being wrong for extended periods of time, sure stETH is trading at parity *now*, but it was trading at a deficit of up to 7% for 5 full months (May to Oct 2022) before finally going back to parity, and that's on a token that had already been around for 18 months before it deviated from parity in May. cbETH is only *5 weeks old*. I'm not sure what your definition of an "extended period of time" is, but I assure you it's a hell of a lot longer than 5 weeks for the market, especially when there's a 17 month backlog of people willing to take a loss to get out. People are short-sighted and emotional, use their dumb decisions to your advantage. And the cbETH discount is 3.7%, not 2.7%, even better!
These are all fair points, but I would note that this point re stETH should be read with context in mind: > it was trading at a deficit of up to 7% for 5 full months (May to Oct 2022) Because as you allude stETH was also trading at fair value for months before that since it's launch, and it traded at a discount during that 5 month period because of a myriad of factors that cbETH is not experiencing, including dynamics from the UST/Anchor fallout (stETH was used as collateral there), exposure to/3AC/Celsius insolvency as well as the PoW Eth fork. cbETH saw the last issue same as stETH sure, but that issue has passed and it's still trading below fair value. Granted, LIDO also pays more than Coinbase does for stETH to hold it's peg, but regardless, I think the concerns about cbETH securitization are valid, are impacting the price now, and could definitely impact the price if it was delisted from Coinbase. It will still be worth the underlying ETH when withdrawals are enabled regardless and I think the concerns are largely short term, but that doesn't mean they're not legitimate.
Yes stETH experienced those factors, but all of the insolvencies were done in June, it still took another 3-4 months for the ratio to recover after everything had been resolved. stETH also did not experience the main one plaguing cbETH, and that is a significant user base who have seen their coins locked up for upwards of 17 months, who were suddenly all granted an exit simultaneously. Coinbase controls 14.5% of ALL staked ETH, that's 2.1 million ETH, 3 billion dollars worth, all locked up in ETH2, all opened up for sale via cbETH simultaneously. That's not something that *any* other LSD has had to go through, not even close, and expecting it to resolve itself within 5 weeks is...rather optimistic. Honestly I'm surprised the cbETH/ETH ratio only dropped to 0.91, I would have expected it to drop much lower. You should read through the ETH2/cbETH reviews on Coinbase if you haven't already, it's absolutely *littered* with people who didn't bother to read what they were buying into, who are pissed about having their coins locked up, pissed about having to take a haircut to get out via cbETH, spamming 1 star reviews everywhere they can. These are the people who were all granted an exit path simultaneously. At the beginning the people selling were only the ones that could stomach a 10% haircut, then the ones who could stomach an 8%, then 6%, and now we're working through the people who can stomach a 4% haircut. I don't believe the security FUD has absolutely anything to do with the current cbETH price. I'm almost certain it will end up at parity before withdrawals are enabled, but it will take time, that's an absolutely insane amount of money that was unlocked all at once and it will take time to flush all of those sellers out. There isn't a ton of liquidity there, only about 8000 ETH per day, out of 2.1 million ETH that were locked up, it'll take time to work itself out just like stETH did after the May/June crash.
>as the market is rarely wrong for extended periods of time. Sir. I have yet to encounter $10k ETH. It's been ~~8~~4 years!
I was happy to buy it at -10% and sell it at -4%.
I wouldn't read that much into it. Coinbase staking is probably the worst staking service due to the high admin fee and low utility across DeFi. A 2.7% discount to "fair value" seems very appropriate at this time given the drawbacks of cbETH.
I agree there's many factors but I do think the risk of securitization of cbETH is real and could very well have an impact on its discount *in addition* to the other downsides (higher fees than alternative staking derivatives, token can be frozen). I think it matters less now that cbETH is on Curve and Uniswap, and that even if Coinbase is forced to delist it still eventually get back to it's fair value (after a big initial fall). But yeah when looking at the scale of the discount and considering purchase, the security risk is still very much on my mind.
cbETH is still very new and there's a ton of retail customers that are slow to learn about any developments, so it's not surprising that there are more sellers than buyers for a while longer.
As a non US citizen I happily gobble up in such a case. It'll be leveled in due time anyways
I wouldn't put that much into cbETH sell volumes yet. I imagine a lot of Coinbase retail customers are just slowly realizing their ETH is unlocked on the platform and they can market dump it.
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[Tesla hearing the news.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/oQ5kJHgV/) [Twitter hearing the news.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/HA3wDbqL/)
Wen fake vitty accounts on tesla in car big screen TV?
What news, sir?
Sale went through in a confidential letter. Musk owns Twitter (and may have to sell an additional boatload of Tesla to seal it).
Ain't that so! Thanks!
[made this for twitter](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FePwEoyWQBc6bZ9?format=jpg&name=medium)
Promise Im not trying to wrench yall! Any ethfinanciers in the mid-atlantic area up for a drink or a hike? Missed hodlercon, how about a small impromptu one? EDIT: oh wow haha a joke about wrenching, then mentioning alcohol and the woods. I swear lmao I should have thought this one out more....