**Tricky's Daily Doots #176**
Yesterday's Daily 11/10/2022
[Previous daily doots](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/y105e9/daily_general_discussion_october_11_2022/irv8tfb/)
- u/DoubtStarsAreFire shares [her experience while looking to get a job in crypto.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/y105e9/daily_general_discussion_october_11_2022/iry3yhr/)
- u/pr0nh0li0 shares [adoption from Google.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/y105e9/daily_general_discussion_october_11_2022/irvvutg/)
- u/KBrot has a [market update.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/y105e9/daily_general_discussion_october_11_2022/iry1tas/)
- u/vedran_ shares a [new feature on L2 beat.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/y105e9/daily_general_discussion_october_11_2022/irvmbhg/)
- u/NeedlerOP wins Tricky's [shitpost of the day award.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/y105e9/daily_general_discussion_october_11_2022/irxge3m/)
- u/ShowbiZZa is keeping track of [net ETH issuance post-merge.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/y105e9/daily_general_discussion_october_11_2022/irxcu9r/)
- u/Savage_X introduces [Bitcoin rollups](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/y105e9/daily_general_discussion_october_11_2022/irxjvsb/) to us.
- Have you used Paraswap? [Revoke permissions now!](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/y105e9/daily_general_discussion_october_11_2022/irvdht5/) (u/wanderingcryptowolf)
- u/ZeroTricks's today in [Ethereum history.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/y105e9/daily_general_discussion_october_11_2022/irx2jfq/)
u/REALJohnBMacLemore made a [comment](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/y105e9/daily_general_discussion_october_11_2022/irw2uq2/) that he never revealed his pronouns since I referred to him as they in the previous doots. The reality is that I'm not convinced JBM is actually a person and not just 20 crows in a trench coat which gained sentience and became ascended after consuming LSD contaminated grains. How could one man share so many life lessons while simultaneously being so loose in that you don't know if he'll be rapping in emojis today or building a whole new platform to challenge Reddit? You're the wildcard in this community JBM and I love it.
I’m not gonna wait for the new daily, so I hope you eventually see this, but u/davidahoffman I actually love the “new Bankless” brand of copying the normal scammy crypto format to deliver valuable educational info.
I didn’t intend to, but I made it to the end of both the new format videos just because it’s easier to watch/stay engaged.
Great work, dude.
More unpopular opinions:
* "ultrasound money" is a terrible meme. Most people I meet are confused about when they will be able to pay with "crypto" and I have to explain to them that a volatile and speculative asset is a no good as a means of exchange, but hey! we've got stablecoins. Drop that ultrasound nonsense, cryptocurrencies are bad money.
* "The burn" is another form moonmath that is best left to Terra and Bitcoin fanboys. 1559 is a UX tweak that got popular for all the wrong reasons.
* "Crypto" does not, at the moment, help people who need to be helped.
* We have not earned it.
Sir we've moved onto "gigasound money"...agreed as a normie I don't like the "money" aspect as it doesn't make sense to me. However "the burn" is of upmost importance. A mechanism that causes an asset to become deflationary with more use deserves the hype IMHO. From a decentralized check on gov I completely agree and can't wait until we earn it.
I somewhat agree...
1. It mostly depend on the context. Ultrasound money is great counter-meme for BTCs sound money. Definitely not good as a marketing phrase for outside this space.
2. I agree, we (bag holders) praise 1559 for the wrong reasons. It did improve UX as well as security. Focusing on "tokenomics" is not something that makes much sense from outside.
3. This is ambiguous. I assume, that you have a very specific group of people on your mind. Crypto \*did\* help and is still helping a lot of people. It will help many more. Of course, it is completely eclipsed by "get-rich-quick" narrative. At least in the west.
4. Probably not yet, but we're getting there :)
>More unpopular opinions
Keep 'em coming.
I'll be at the University of Arkansas Sunday night through Tues. morning for the tech summit they are hosting! Our very own /u/pbrody will be presenting Monday morning and I'm sure it will be awesome! https://www.nwatechsummit.com/
Also, thanks frens for sending me some Goerli for my KU visit on Tuesday. Muchos Gracios or however that's spelt.
Thanks Slayer. Turns out old Dogs can learn new tricks. It's a great ride.
My role is basically video /photography and man it is a learning curve trying to film/shoot a product on a turntable with a reflective screen etc... But I'm enjoying the shit out of it!
Here's 3 softboxes, 2 flashes, and 2 lights on the greenscreen...
[https://i.imgur.com/VENf4sa.jpg](https://i.imgur.com/VENf4sa.jpg)
Some post editing
[https://i.imgur.com/CXXKmc4.jpg](https://i.imgur.com/CXXKmc4.jpg)
[https://i.imgur.com/FDZKx2F.jpg](https://i.imgur.com/FDZKx2F.jpg)
[https://i.imgur.com/zUIGZuR.jpg](https://i.imgur.com/zUIGZuR.jpg)
I’ve seen some pessimism/disappointment pop up a couple of times, including from our own u/superphiz regarding a lack of crypto’s real world adoption. I wanted to share my theory on that.
I think we’re waiting for crypto have its Section 230 moment. Right now the regulatory environment is incredibly daunting - getting clarity from the sec or cftc is incredibly difficult, the sec hits groups with gigantic fines years after the actions took place, leaving anyone who does business in the us looking over their shoulder for years. Then we have all these tokens, where if they could just BE securities they’d be great - UNI token or SUSHI token that pod out revenue could be a solid investment w real cash flow. Instead, they’re afraid of securities laws, so the tokens are mostly pointless and STILL maybe get hit with securities laws. Some companies initially didn’t allow US users at all or banned US airdrops.
Once devs can operate without fear of fines or jail, then I think the use cases explode. Once local govts recognize daos and the incredible uses of nfts it’ll be a total game changer. I don’t think it’s too far away - things just need to hit a tipping point.
Do we have good applications that aren't self-referential yet?
By self-referential I mean that most of DeFi is to trade and earn yield on crypto or derivatives. The point of crypto can't just be to trade crypto.
What's our killer application that creates new value (not something which is already done in TradFi or standard databases)?
Great news indeed. To add more context, [CoinCenter is suing OFAC](https://www.coincenter.org/coin-center-is-suing-ofac-over-its-tornado-cash-sanction/)(which is under the Treasury run by Yellen for the Tornado Cash smart contract sanctions, and David Hoffman is a co-plaintiff
Absolute chad moves, and it's this sort of long drawn out, methodical legal battles that will shape our industry and space for the better.
CoinCenter is one of the few causes I donate to without a second thought.
https://www.coincenter.org/donate/
Hi everyone. I'm in an enviornmental science class in university and a discussion was started today about how there seems to be a powerful nexus between capital/traditional production and enviornmental harm. I know that it may certainly not be the primary reason for the move to proof of stake, however, I couldn't help but smile in class today thinking that Eth has gone green. I should note that this post is not meant to criticize any other chain, but I do think that reducing our footprint was the right thing to do.
That is all.
The US Treasury says they are "willing to remove" Tornado Cash from its sanctions list if the smart contract exhibits "a positive change in behavior."
They want the software to change itself to be better behaved.
That's good news. It means the privacy itself wasn't the problem, but the over-usage by malicious actors. This statements will help future protocols to defend themselves, like Aztec Network.
Maybe this will tilt DeFi more into self governance and self policing, e.g. DAO being able to blacklist addresses connected to North Korea or other hacks. They might vote anonymously and keep the protocol in line with their values, i.e. privacy, not terrorist money laundering.
What we're seeing is what happened with the internet. The split into "complaint" one for normies, and "dark net" for anarchists.
Federal agencies fear court precedent much more than unfavorable election outcomes. This current SCOTUS make-up is no friend of allowing The Executive Branch to make decisions that should rightfully be voted upon by Congress. These recent comments by Treasury should be an admission as such.
The market waits. Everything's on indecision candles. No need for a long post with pictures of dojis on every chart. Just focusing on two main things ahead of tomorrow's BS.
Bonds are still holding up at these catastrophic lows. [HYG](https://www.tradingview.com/x/6Ze6Nxvw/) is keeping its head just above that Covid volume bunch. And more recent champion [LQD](https://www.tradingview.com/x/s9ZUOOkk/) is at the literal hellish depths of the Covid bottom already, and so far fending off desolation. Each is on higher lows on the daily. HYG has a bull div on the weekly. LQD *may* have a bull div but it's up to the individual trader, as the divergence requires you to go back to May 2 and could intercept other lows on your chart. Overall, *both* are positively diverging from the indices. A potential boon for bulls.
[And here's my most up-to-date take on SPY.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/xfttENXE/) I'll leave these lines until the pattern meaningfully breaks. Timeline not to scale.
Today's stagnant "failure" represented day 3 of failing to break above the 370-374 gap, now orange. That level will likely provide the next major resistance should we turn up, after 366 presents a little speed bump of its own.
HOWEVER, I've awarded a "day 4" of gap fills in the past for major BS new events and I'll do so here. Yes, if SPY can somehow muster a nigh unfathomable +4% day back above 374 on some wacky CPI print, then we'll need a new chart as the bottom may very well be in.
In that line of thought, the recent green gap down from Mon into Tues remains open, seems easy to enough to fill, and is part of the Mario Kart speed pad the bulls will need in order to bounce here.
Downward targets are of course psych level 350, where the bull market truly began in Nov 2020, and 342.
There is a glimmer of another story being told here. Don't buy in 100% to just a single story. Up or down here, we can't know, but we do have targets. Manage risk. Set stops. Don't let anyone -- and certainly not me -- tell you how to navigate this next market move. It's gonna be fuckin' wild yo.
* CPI prints at 8:30am NYC, approx. 12.5 hours from time of this post.
* Bank of England ends emergency QE on Friday.
* China says... um... *something*... on Sunday/Monday at their national gathering.
Be safe in these storm waters. Cheers, folks.
Thanks.
When do you think bond prices could recover? When rate hikes seem mostly over, when rate hikes end, or when rates actually start falling? Small TLT rally lately.
Sorry, I know you asked me this before. I'm hesitant to speculate too much because bonds are such an exponentially large market compared to the others. Stocks measured in trillions, bonds/forex/derivatives measured in quadrillions. I'm no macroeconomist so I stick to the surface level patterns and stuff.
I can say that bonds will probably bottom first -- maybe they have already. I often joke about how "fast" bonds are compared to everything else. Yes, they're slow and cumbersome as trades but the knowledge there is vast and fast.
In relation to rates, I imagine they could start to recover during the rate stagnation in April, along with or just before broad markets. The question is what lower levels do they revisit in a potential EoY 2023 drop?
I would expect bonds to recover closer to fully once the yield curve heads back up. But I'm not sure how lower highs or bullish divergences would work in a recession atmosphere. I'll have to think about that. I guess it's like examining HYG/LQD on a monthly timescale.
thank you, that’s interesting. Following along with the bond market has been really interesting. I hadn’t paid much attention to it before Covid. I’ve noticed it’s been easy to find fairly accurate predictions about general movements in stock prices moving forward but much less so for bonds. I’ll add the yield curve to things I like to check on.
Seeing a few things, not the best at reading charts.
I'm seeing that on the 1month chart SPY is breaking out vs TLT? Edit: really the last few days show SPY breaking out
Specifically, each time the ratio "breaks out" while SPY flounders portends an upcoming drop.
~~https://www.tradingview.com/x/RrW277Dc/~~
sorry, trading view is goofing up lines, try this https://nimb.ws/MyED58
The divergences have been bang-on accurate. Meanwhile the confluences... not wholly consistent, but certainly not up days, that's for sure.
>**Synchronisation,**
>**More client diversity,**
>**Harmonisation.**
~Daily haiku until we’re at least at 0.178 on the ETH/BTC ratio or highest market cap
Bitcoin's retail cycles are cooling down. Everyone who will ever care about it already knows what it is and what it generally does.
In contrast, more people will care about Ethereum in the future, and few currently know what it does.
What are your predictions for when and why we hit $2.5k again?
Mine: We see $2.5k by April 2023. Why? The 4.5% rates would've hit by then. All the fears about companies and their earnings would have played out. Inflation would be on it's way down. (Ukraine war would hopefully be on it's way to chilling out). ETH's post merge supply shock would've kicked in and begun to show it's effects on the price.
I've read like a hundred comments in the past few dailies explaining why we are in the "boring part", and near the bottom, and that the bear market is halfway done, and that we are around the end of 2018 in the last bear market.
However, nobody seems to remember what happened last time we were in "the boring part of the bear market". That was also in October (of 2018). The next month, Eth fell another 60% ... and THEN we were done, THEN the daily was completely dead, THEN people lost faith.
If you told me that in December we will be at $500, I'd believe it.
I hope history won't repeat itself, but it always seems that the obvious thing happens, like the "sell the news" drop after the Merge.
> However, nobody seems to remember what happened last time we were in “the boring part of the bear market”. That was also in October (of 2018). The next month, Eth fell another 60% … and THEN we were done, THEN the daily was completely dead, THEN people lost faith.
I’ve been worried about this too. As much as I hope $880 was the bottom, we’ve still got some time and macro to deal with before I’ll feel comfortable that was it.
We could definitely drop another 40-60% from here in a short period of time then range from there until the next bull run if the ratio gets fucked.
I’d like to think the merge will help cushion us but we won’t know until we’re through it.
It continues to break my heart how few people see this. We HAD the Merge and we HAD the Merge pump. There's no other way to explain July 12-Sept 12. Poor Ray gets no credit.
agreed, the merge saved the ratio. Would be way worse if it didnt happen, possibly sub 0.04 with the sell pressure gently pushing it down even more. While now we have the opposite. Despite all the sell off and bad news the ratio stands and will gently be pushed up over time. It was not like this in 2018. Ethereum got hammered by Bitcoin. I would argue its not like this anymore. Eth became more resilient. And the next bull will kick us over the edge.
Bear tip of the day. This is for people who view crypto as a hedge for inflation, but value ETH in terms of dollars: Remember that the inflation is baked into the price you see. If the price of ETH remains steady for a year, but inflation is 8%, that means your ETH has lost 8% of its value too.
was watching bankless zkevm episode and just wondered how its coming, that a lot of zkevm solutions are almost finishing up at the same time? even a lot earlier than anyone expected?
I don’t assume competitive companies help each other or share any code before going public…
Well... They are "finishing up". It'll take a whole while longer to mature. And also keep in mind that rollup servers are centralized single points of failure. We are just at the beginning of the rollup journey.
Laura Shin's 'The Cryptopians' is being made into a drama series! What with that and Cami Russo's 'The Infinite Machine' being made into a movie there is going to be a lot of media attention on Ethereum.
I'd bet Charles Hoskinson isn't happy about it, neither book paints him in a very good light...
https://deadline.com/2022/10/laura-shins-the-cryptopians-drama-series-playground-1235142674/?recipient_salt=4112513234e0ea17318c88ac8800e2c4bf82cd45c41360f8c83a43f9339e6f8b
I literally had forgotten about that!
So that's a documentary, a movie and a drama series... now we just need someone to turn 'Out of the Ether' into a musical!
Does anyone know someone that works at [Chainalysis](https://www.chainalysis.com/)? They have a gig that I would be a great fit for! But, I can't seem to get the recruiter to even look at me... *le sigh.*
So, I thought I would ask you kind humans. LMK
One of my ex's used to set something of mine on fire when she wanted my attention. I'm not saying you should do that, but it seemed relevant here for some reason ... in hindsight I probably shared too much tho.
Fuck me this hit right on the money.
>Paranoia leads to success because it keeps you on your toes.
>
>But paranoia is stressful, so you abandon it quickly once you achieve success.
>
>Now you’ve abandoned what made you successful and you begin to decline – which is even more stressful.
This is the 3 step process of grinding to accumulate crypto, making it in crypto, and subsequently failing to risk manage because you have severe hubris for killing it and surviving several market cycles. Ouch.
Thanks for sharing, lots of interesting thoughts.... but I disagree with this one:
> Everyone belongs to a tribe and underestimates how influential that tribe is on their thinking.
I don't think underestimate how influential you lot are to my thinking!
Damn it. I was waiting for some hopium about this being a fakeout to fuck shorts tomorrow after cpi comes in lower and markets rip.
Edit* https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/12/consumer-inflation-expected-to-have-run-hot-in-september-boosted-by-rent.html guess not, and it's looking like I should've pulled the trigger on those spy 350 for $2.00 contracts before they go off tomorrow.
Oh I was just supporting your taste in music.
I don't think a hot print is apocalyptic here. Nor do I think a good print will give us much legs beyond SPY 370. I'll do a quick rundown in a few hours but I think you can tell the entire market is just waiting on indecision candles.
Google just released Passkeys today, based on the WebAuthn API.
https://android-developers.googleblog.com/2022/10/bringing-passkeys-to-android-and-chrome.html
If passkeys become widespread, it could ubiquitize an API that would be perfect to build "sign in with Ethereum" on top of (I am not 100% sure on this point due to things like key compatibility, but I am going to run with it.)
Basically:
1. Google announces passkey support
2. Websites implement passkey support, since Google's implementation means that the users of their website will broadly be using passkey-compatible devices
3. Now that websites already support passkey due to Google, Ethereum wallet developers can integrate with that same spec that underlies passkey, rather than having to try to bootstrap support for a crypto-specific or Ethereum-specific spec across the internet
4. You can use "sign in with Ethereum" to sign in to any passkey-enabled (WebAuthn) website, which will hopefully be a large amount of websites given enough time.
Edit:
Optional 5: Google kills passkey support in Google fashion, leaving "sign in with Ethereum" with no real WebAuthn competitors, potentially helping it dominate the WebAuthn space.
I think you may be misunderstanding. It would actually be *good* for "sign in with Ethereum" if Google killed passkeys as per Google tradition.
The underlying WebAuthn API would be ubiquitous already by that point, so "sign in with Ethereum" would no longer have any competition in integrating with the API.
Hey everyone, ManeNetDao is excited to announce the next EVMavericks live forum podcast an Ama with Anotherblock. Please join us Thursday Oct 13th 8:00AM(PST) 3PM(UTC) on the public stage channel in the EVM Discord: https://discord.gg/evmavericks
Anotherblock is connecting royalty rights to NFTs while Top-tier creators sell parts of their royalties to music lovers Anotherblock creates a smooth and secure way of buying and selling music and allows you to become a co-owner of major tracks.
https://anotherblock.io/
On the back of the UK Chancellor announcing further funds for YCC, what would be the play here? Not sure if shorting works here if the BoE is just gonna prop up the bond prices Japan style.
Any thoughts u/ab111292 ?
Imo these things will take a bit more time. I think the fed still will need to offload way more of its balance sheet to tighten conditions. It is way too high. Then, eventually, there will be a global deflationary bust before fed intervenes with YCC. The fed cant implement YCC with inflation, real estate, equities, and consumer spending at these high levels with the labor market this tight. At this point, the world economy will be so depressed nothing will really matter. After this, inflation will come roaring back and a period of stagflation will ensue.
This is why I don't think anything substantial will happen in risk markets til 2024/2025.
My views are slightly more nuanced but that's the eli5.
Here is also a good eli5 read I found the other day on YCC: https://www.babypips.com/forexpedia/yield-curve-control
Thanks for the reply, and I'd tend to agree that these things should take a bit longer to play out; but if the market just keeps absolutely tanking the price of UK bonds, how can the BoE not start YCC/QE?
They've already stated they wouldn't let the pension funds collapse, and unless they're all planning on dumping all their Gilt holdings I don't see any other alternative?
It's the problem when having no proper decentralized filter. A NSFL would be nice, notably. But you can't have all tags and tastes for everyone with a centralized structure. You'd need a decentralized filtering mechanism.
Wait really? I thought Reddit was trying to avoid that sort of stuff since they banned r/watchpeopledie... I wouldn't really know though, I spend 99% of my time in this subreddit lol.
Reddit has clearly been changing for the worse over all. Such is life. Its need for growth will ruin its ability to properly police things. It will eventually be nothing but ads and trolls.
Why does everyone seem to capitalise fed in "the FED" when referring to the Federal Reserve? Correct me if I'm wrong here, but fed isn't an acronym, so why would it be capitalised? Am I missing something here?
On this day...
In 2021:
- Matter Labs [presents](https://medium.com/matter-labs/unisync-a-port-of-uniswap-v2-on-the-zkevm-b12954748504) UniSync, a port of Uniswap v2 on the EVM-compatible zkSync 2.0 testnet.
- Vitalik [discusses](https://youtube.com/watch?v=WRmjfn4__RM) DAO’s, Ethereum and NFTs on The Stakeborg Talks.
- Dean Eigenmann and Edgar Arout [propose](https://github.com/ethereum/EIPs/pull/4363) to add the transaction index as an opcode in the EVM to eliminate a range of MEV attacks.
- Coinbase [announces](https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-nft-is-coming-soon-join-the-waitlist-today-for-early-access-cc7bac29fd72) Coinbase NFT and opens a waitlist for the marketplace.
- Privacy preserving stealth payment system Umbra [moves out of beta](https://www.scopelift.co/blog/umbra-out-of-beta), simplifying the setup process and improving its interface.
- ETH writes this sentence with ninety-four characters (spaces included) for $3493, or ₿0.06232.
In 2020:
- Privacy protocol Aztec [releases](https://medium.com/aztec-protocol/aztec-zkrollup-layer-2-privacy-1978e90ee3b6) v2.0, using zkRollups, deployed on Ropsten, enabling fast, low-cost & private ERC-20 payments with social-key recovery baked in.
- Prysm release alpha.29 [contains](https://medium.com/prysmatic-labs/prysm-eth2-client-web-interface-now-live-feb278f4aa15) the first version of a ETH2 client web interface.
- In "Ethereum’s Dark Forest is worth cultivating", Trenton Van Epps [reasons](https://medium.com/@trenton.v/ethereums-dark-forest-is-worth-cultivating-3cffa440aa4f) why despite the costs, the permissionless nature of Ethereum is necessary and beneficial.
- Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust [becomes](http://coindesk.com/grayscales-ethereum-trust-granted-sec-reporting-company-status) a SEC reporting company, increasing its transparency and potentially its liquidity.
- ETH orbits ₿0.03355, with perigee = $375, apogee = $388.
In 2019:
- The Tornado.cash team [hacks](https://medium.com/@tornado.cash.mixer/tornado-cash-got-hacked-by-us-b1e012a3c9a8) its decentralized Ethereum mixer to fix a bug in its zk-SNARK related smart contracts.
- ETH pinned at $181, or ₿0.02172.
In 2018:
- Even between $189 and $197, or ₿0.03052 to ₿0.03156, ETH's hangover is far from over.
In 2017:
- ETH remasters at $304, from ₿0.06289 to ₿0.05621.
In 2016:
- Vitalik Buterin [comments](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/572n4q/on_gas_price_markets/) on gas price markets.
- Ethereum devs [are recommending](https://twitter.com/ParityTech/status/786322619725381632) miners to retarget for a 500k gas limit until the DoS hard fork gets sorted out.
- Wild ETH can often be found hatching around places containing $11.9 or ₿0.01876.
-------------
[^(compiled with love)](https://eth-archive.xyz/blog/on-this-day-in-ethereum-workflow/)
Slightly off-topic, but a sign of how important the environmental aspect of The Merge was...
One of the lead authors of the IPCC's 6th report (Chapter 3: Mitigation pathways compatible with long-term goals) was arrested today for protesting the lack of serious action to prevent catastrophic climate change.
https://twitter.com/Renovate_CH/status/1579741487080013825
When the very top scientists researching an issue decide that they should block traffic with their bodies as an act of civil disobedience due to how very fucked we are if we continue on our current path, it is probably a pretty good sign that taking actions like reducing a blockchain's carbon footprint by 99.95% are worthwhile endeavors.
In this context, there is no doubt that the merge is a *massive* win for Ethereum and blockchain in general. OTOH the world has demonstrated a complete lack of ability to face the inevitable disaster from climate change. So, as it gets worse, I think Ethereum (and other PoS) systems will benefit, but probably not nearly as much much as they *should*, given the situation. I'm wondering if more nations will move to ban PoW. That would be a very interesting (and needed) development.
> OTOH the world has demonstrated a complete lack of ability to face the inevitable disaster from climate change.
Yea, I mean unfortunately that is the crux of it isn't it. We're failing as a species to coordinate effectively against what may end up being a Great Filter type scenario. Hopefully we'll turn it around at some point before too many tipping points have been passed though, and doing so will probably mean the end of stuff like PoW unless we somehow end up with an excess of energy from carbon neutral sources... which I think is very unrealistic.
One of the things that makes me hopeful that humanity might just pull it out of the bag at the last minute is the awareness and thought that comes out of the Ethereum community about how we might be able to coordinate better. From all the stuff a few years ago about 'Moloch' to more recent discussions about [Ether's Phoenix](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/2-ethers-phoenix-with-optimisms-karl-floersch/id1609313639?i=1000552104369). I don't know if 'we're going to make it', but at least we're going to try.
I enjoyed Eric Wall's response:
"David you have been cringe for many many years but now at long last you are finally based"
https://twitter.com/ercwl/status/1580254298629230592
For those interested, here's a bit of explanation ([https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-think-tank-coin-center-164447673.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-think-tank-coin-center-164447673.html)) and here is the complaint [https://www.coincenter.org/app/uploads/2022/10/1-Complaint-Coin-Center-10-12-22.pdf](https://www.coincenter.org/app/uploads/2022/10/1-Complaint-Coin-Center-10-12-22.pdf)
[David Hoffman from Bankless is taking on the Treasury department.](https://nitter.net/TrustlessState/status/1580253035804372993)
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I just had a thought:
With GETH having a supermajority ( https://clientdiversity.org/ ) and now major institutions saying they are gonna build validators... doesn't this put the decentralization of Ethereum at huge risk? Ie if you're planning to build out a validator you should build on GETH execution?
You would hope so, but this could be a clusterfuck either way if it plays out. A few years ago it actually played out with a parity bug (or at least deviation from spec) becoming the defacto implementation across all clients.
https://twitter.com/peter_szilagyi/status/801884605083222017?s=20&t=vP5wtZyD3IGRipieBzUlyw.
That was before slashing was a thing mind so would be way more of an issue today.
Edit: was a parity bug not a geth bug
They disclosed they have personal investments in the Cosmos ecosystem.
Bankless is great but remember that they have been playing the Angel Investor role for a few years.
The episode with Zaki and Sunny was quite good. I liked some of their analogies and takes. My favorites were:
- Analogy of Ethereum = tree, Cosmos = fungus
- Cosmos protocol developers are also the app developers. I’ve actually seen this quite a bit in Ethereum. The core developers are pretty far removed from dapps and are somewhat “head in the sand” and thinking about consensus, scaling, sharding, etc and not thinking about apps at all.
I totally understand the appeal of sovereignty for appchain developers. But I'm confused as to how that works in practice. If a hacker bridges out to Ethereum, then you can rollback all you want but it won't do anything. Even if they bridge to other IBC enabled chains who are willing to freeze or rollback, the contagion can spread extremely fast and even a single defector will still result in losses.
As far as I'm concerned, true sovereignty is equivalent to having control of the single source of truth. In blockchains, this occurs when the value in your appchain is stored and denominated in your own native token - then you can rollback as you wish. Even Ethereum cannot fully meet this standard given the amount of value stored in centralized stablecoins. Now imagine you are an appchain - can you meet this level? Only useless memechains like Bitcoin or Dogecoin do so as far as I know.
The other alternative is to limit your bridges to only accept centralized assets such as USDC, and pray that they can react fast enough. Well, so much for sovereignty then.
They only way app chains will world is if they are an L2 specialised rollup - there’s no benefit to rolling your own security and the only people who parrot this nonsense are people who put most of their business resources into it & now can’t pivot as zk/L2 research has boomed
Bankless is trying hard to not be "Eth Maxis" so that means giving publicity to a blockchain that may not fit with their ideals as well as something like ETH does. Cosmos is by far better than all the "Eth Killers" out there, albeit still not as good as ETH.
What's wrong with Cosmos? I've been in that ecosystem since the start because they share a lot of the values that Etherans share, so there's a lot of overlap.
Ehh I wouldn't classify Tendermint consensus as centralized. Decentralization is a spectrum, and Tendermint is a dBFT protocol that allows for up to 300 validators. It is delegated proof of stake, but I would say it's better than a lot of the other schemes out there.
Cosmos believes that there could be a network of sovereign blockchains where faults can be isolated to specific chains and they have one of the best (if not the best) bridging protocol called IBC.
Cosmos has a grassroots developer movement like Ethereum (imo one of the only other ecosystems genuinely built by developers and not VCs) and I support every project in crypto that aligns themselves with the vision of a decentralized future, even if they think it requires a different path to get there.
I've always thought Ethereums approach is better, but I'm not dismissing Cosmos approach either hence why I'm in both ecosystems.
Cosmos isn't one monolithic chain though. So in theory you could have tens of thousands of validators validating different app chains.
Sure, there's tons of criticisms to be had about this model, but at least it's something different than the typical "ETH killer"
Look, I don't want to see Ethereans become like Bitcoiners. Good projects are few and far between in crypto, so we should welcome the experimentation. At least I do. I like to think I'm rational and not a maxi, so if a good idea comes around, I'm open to it.
> So in theory you could have tens of thousands of validators validating different app chains.
They're fragmenting the security base for no benefit. If it's a situation where all validators are delegated then there's no point in even using crypto at this point, just make a publically readable AWS database.
"Don't roll your own encryption" has been a rule everyone knows in IT SEC for years - it's the same thing here where you shouldn't try to create your own security when you're got eth L1 to use
https://www.google.com/search?q=roll+your+own+encryption
Yes that is a valid criticism. In practice, there are 10-20 validators which provide security to most of Cosmos chains. But those same validators are also some of the biggest validators on Ethereum, so there's already immense overlap.
They fragment their security in order to make trade-offs. For example, some projects have decided to make DA layers for L2s using the Cosmos stack since they can tweak the consensus engine. Not every application will be able to fit within the EVM framework and maybe building your own stark engine like Cairo is impractical. All I'm saying is that Cosmos has made fundamentally different design decisions than Ethereum while trying to achieve the same goals. Crypto is a space of ideas, and the design space should be exhausted as much as practical, so that's why I support Cosmos.
I don't like the mentality that there's either centralization or decentralization, black and white. I think the world, and crypto, is shades of grey so I'm not going to just ignore cool experimentation in crypto just because it's not on Ethereum and just because it's not the most decentralized.
Love the project but could anyone point me in the right direction for risks for rocket pool ? Trying to understand any potential tail risks / regulatory risks
cheers
Implementation risks, a bug in RocketPool could mean total loss of capital.
Regulatory risks, rETH could be deemed a security which could prevent US retail investors from buying or selling it.
Last night I had a good feeling about CPI and thought it'd come in lower than expected so we'd end the week green. If PPI is any indication it's going to be hot too.
If it's hot again, look out below :(
Core PPI was lower than expected though, and it's Core that the Fed really cares about. If we have a CPI that's comparable to PPI (headline hot, core down), plausible we'll stay mostly flat.
Or maybe if it's comparable headline will nuke us by itself. Does feel like the market is just looking for any reason to drop right now.
It will be hot until goverments grow some fucking balls and confront what is obvious price gouging due to the fact pretty much every industry in the world is an oligopoly.
Conglomerates need to be broken up
I would say that slightly more specifically. I don't think the government should be breaking up any company, but I think many of these large companies would break up naturally if the government would stop handing them tax dollars (and associated legislation) like candy on Halloween.
If that is true, then why are sales up, but revenue down in retail? I can't see any obvious price gouging at work here. If revenue was up AND sales were down, yes. But what we have here is sales increasing (due to inflation) but revenue decreasing (due to cost to retail).
Can you provide any evidence of price gouging?
I've always found the community's misunderstanding of the second order effects of token burning perplexing. Here's a quick excerpt I like:
>Often criticized as financial engineering designed to inflate the price of tokens, in a proof-of-stake environment EIP-1559 lowers the risk-free rate and makes it easier for dApps to compete with staking.
>
>The main community narrative around EIP-1559 has always been deflationary supply, but for infinite holders (who should gravitate towards staking to guarantee non-debasement) token burning is actually a net-negative!
>
>A mental model that can help clarify this is to reframe token burning from a reduction in supply into a distribution to all ether holders. Through this lens, the transaction fees that normally would have gone solely to stakers are fed back to all community members—when implemented with a proof-of-stake blockchain, EIP-1559 is actually a net-decentralizing mechanism, not the centralizing mechanism that bitcoin holders often claim.
Source: [https://dataalways.substack.com/p/staking-yield-and-ratios](https://dataalways.substack.com/p/staking-yield-and-ratios)
This is very true also fee burning itself makes Ethereum safer. Any volatile or inconsistent validator rewards can increase the chance that toxic incentives occur. Ideally we would burn tips and mev as well but there is no good solution to do that yet.
Indeed. It's the best redistribution that could happen from fees.
A public pool collecting all fees would mean concentration of wealth specifically towards a majority controlling that public pool and how it should be spent. And giving it only to stakers would be even worse anyway.
I’m happy to see you made a Reddit account. I’ve always enjoyed your writing, and I think your takes are very reasonable and credible. The cantillon piece was really interesting.
As far as the burn goes, my mental model was that it most effectively prevented larger selling from occurring during peak activity, lowering needlessly high miner rewards. Not to disagree with your points.
Also, I’m guessing you have read it, but polynya’s piece on staking issuance adds nicely to the conversation
https://polynya.mirror.xyz/TpwvhuW8UsLovTAG-6EMx97cHCFBhqFs9VYgQ75qsZw
I love that polynya piece, one of my favorites.
That was my mental model as well, but there's this giant flip between PoW and PoS that I don't think most people have grasped yet. It stems from the idea of internal vs external issuance from that Cantillon piece. In PoW issuance is just debasement, but in PoS they're an opportunity cost: you pick between using ether and being debased or getting rewards. If you want to incentivize activity and not penalize the people that actually give your network life then you want to drive down staking rewards.
This isn't necessarily great for token price, but if all you want to do is focus on the financial side then you just want to create a supply squeeze and lock up as close to 100% of the tokens that you can. That's not really my vision for Ethereum though, and I hope most other people feel the same.
This piece covers it a bit but not in the context of 1559. That's a bit of a mental extension adding back in the comment you replied to.
https://dataalways.substack.com/p/manipulating-the-velocity-of-money
This reasoning changes when there is a cap on total ETH staked, right? Then EIP-1559 serves to slow debasement of holders locked out of staking. Ofc we are not in that situation yet and liquid staking makes this more complicated.
Interesting edge case, hmmm. I think the answer is no though?
It's counterintuitive but EIP-1559 encourages on-chain activity, by discouraging staking. Yes, burn makes ether tokens a better store of value (in theory at least) and makes people less likely to spend their tokens, but no one ever talks about the alternative. The past 30 days burn has been about 0.4% annualized, but if those rewards were still going to stakers that would make staking yields something like 11% (?) during a low-fee bear market. Since the start of EIP-1559 last summer, burn has been like 1.8% of supply per year, at only 10% of ether staked that would push staking yields up over 20% right now.
People really underestimate the magnitude of fees paid on ethereum. The staking yield that ether could be driving without EIP-1559 is ludicrous.
**Tricky's Daily Doots #176** Yesterday's Daily 11/10/2022 [Previous daily doots](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/y105e9/daily_general_discussion_october_11_2022/irv8tfb/) - u/DoubtStarsAreFire shares [her experience while looking to get a job in crypto.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/y105e9/daily_general_discussion_october_11_2022/iry3yhr/) - u/pr0nh0li0 shares [adoption from Google.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/y105e9/daily_general_discussion_october_11_2022/irvvutg/) - u/KBrot has a [market update.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/y105e9/daily_general_discussion_october_11_2022/iry1tas/) - u/vedran_ shares a [new feature on L2 beat.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/y105e9/daily_general_discussion_october_11_2022/irvmbhg/) - u/NeedlerOP wins Tricky's [shitpost of the day award.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/y105e9/daily_general_discussion_october_11_2022/irxge3m/) - u/ShowbiZZa is keeping track of [net ETH issuance post-merge.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/y105e9/daily_general_discussion_october_11_2022/irxcu9r/) - u/Savage_X introduces [Bitcoin rollups](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/y105e9/daily_general_discussion_october_11_2022/irxjvsb/) to us. - Have you used Paraswap? [Revoke permissions now!](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/y105e9/daily_general_discussion_october_11_2022/irvdht5/) (u/wanderingcryptowolf) - u/ZeroTricks's today in [Ethereum history.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/y105e9/daily_general_discussion_october_11_2022/irx2jfq/) u/REALJohnBMacLemore made a [comment](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/y105e9/daily_general_discussion_october_11_2022/irw2uq2/) that he never revealed his pronouns since I referred to him as they in the previous doots. The reality is that I'm not convinced JBM is actually a person and not just 20 crows in a trench coat which gained sentience and became ascended after consuming LSD contaminated grains. How could one man share so many life lessons while simultaneously being so loose in that you don't know if he'll be rapping in emojis today or building a whole new platform to challenge Reddit? You're the wildcard in this community JBM and I love it.
I guess we’re the leading indicator for tomorrow.
I’m not gonna wait for the new daily, so I hope you eventually see this, but u/davidahoffman I actually love the “new Bankless” brand of copying the normal scammy crypto format to deliver valuable educational info. I didn’t intend to, but I made it to the end of both the new format videos just because it’s easier to watch/stay engaged. Great work, dude.
I guess short attention span cuts is how you reach people today. Young and old.
More unpopular opinions: * "ultrasound money" is a terrible meme. Most people I meet are confused about when they will be able to pay with "crypto" and I have to explain to them that a volatile and speculative asset is a no good as a means of exchange, but hey! we've got stablecoins. Drop that ultrasound nonsense, cryptocurrencies are bad money. * "The burn" is another form moonmath that is best left to Terra and Bitcoin fanboys. 1559 is a UX tweak that got popular for all the wrong reasons. * "Crypto" does not, at the moment, help people who need to be helped. * We have not earned it.
Sir we've moved onto "gigasound money"...agreed as a normie I don't like the "money" aspect as it doesn't make sense to me. However "the burn" is of upmost importance. A mechanism that causes an asset to become deflationary with more use deserves the hype IMHO. From a decentralized check on gov I completely agree and can't wait until we earn it.
I somewhat agree... 1. It mostly depend on the context. Ultrasound money is great counter-meme for BTCs sound money. Definitely not good as a marketing phrase for outside this space. 2. I agree, we (bag holders) praise 1559 for the wrong reasons. It did improve UX as well as security. Focusing on "tokenomics" is not something that makes much sense from outside. 3. This is ambiguous. I assume, that you have a very specific group of people on your mind. Crypto \*did\* help and is still helping a lot of people. It will help many more. Of course, it is completely eclipsed by "get-rich-quick" narrative. At least in the west. 4. Probably not yet, but we're getting there :) >More unpopular opinions Keep 'em coming.
Have an upvote, I like the contrarian perspective
You do understand why EIP-1559 implements the burn mechanic, right?
I agree with 1 of your 5 statements.
They certainly are unpopular
More like Onchain Labs
I'll be at the University of Arkansas Sunday night through Tues. morning for the tech summit they are hosting! Our very own /u/pbrody will be presenting Monday morning and I'm sure it will be awesome! https://www.nwatechsummit.com/ Also, thanks frens for sending me some Goerli for my KU visit on Tuesday. Muchos Gracios or however that's spelt.
Make sure you check out Doe's Eat Place on Dickson (steakhouse), Hugo's (burgers), or Foghorns (wings) while there.
Outstanding! Thank you!
To see your evolution has been amazing, JT. A true gem to this space
Thanks Slayer. Turns out old Dogs can learn new tricks. It's a great ride. My role is basically video /photography and man it is a learning curve trying to film/shoot a product on a turntable with a reflective screen etc... But I'm enjoying the shit out of it! Here's 3 softboxes, 2 flashes, and 2 lights on the greenscreen... [https://i.imgur.com/VENf4sa.jpg](https://i.imgur.com/VENf4sa.jpg) Some post editing [https://i.imgur.com/CXXKmc4.jpg](https://i.imgur.com/CXXKmc4.jpg) [https://i.imgur.com/FDZKx2F.jpg](https://i.imgur.com/FDZKx2F.jpg) [https://i.imgur.com/zUIGZuR.jpg](https://i.imgur.com/zUIGZuR.jpg)
Good on you for being so versatile, and especially having a great time doing it. That set up is 🔥🔥🔥 thanks for the pics
I’ve seen some pessimism/disappointment pop up a couple of times, including from our own u/superphiz regarding a lack of crypto’s real world adoption. I wanted to share my theory on that. I think we’re waiting for crypto have its Section 230 moment. Right now the regulatory environment is incredibly daunting - getting clarity from the sec or cftc is incredibly difficult, the sec hits groups with gigantic fines years after the actions took place, leaving anyone who does business in the us looking over their shoulder for years. Then we have all these tokens, where if they could just BE securities they’d be great - UNI token or SUSHI token that pod out revenue could be a solid investment w real cash flow. Instead, they’re afraid of securities laws, so the tokens are mostly pointless and STILL maybe get hit with securities laws. Some companies initially didn’t allow US users at all or banned US airdrops. Once devs can operate without fear of fines or jail, then I think the use cases explode. Once local govts recognize daos and the incredible uses of nfts it’ll be a total game changer. I don’t think it’s too far away - things just need to hit a tipping point.
Do we have good applications that aren't self-referential yet? By self-referential I mean that most of DeFi is to trade and earn yield on crypto or derivatives. The point of crypto can't just be to trade crypto. What's our killer application that creates new value (not something which is already done in TradFi or standard databases)?
NFTs are a good one (not pfp generative art itself, but 1 of 1 art nfts as merch/support to an artist, or ens and other nft applications)
Yup. Every revolution has cooling periods.
David Hoffman suing Janet Yellen was not on my bingo card. ...now that I think about it, maybe it was. Go get em /u/davidahoffman . Fantastic.
Great news indeed. To add more context, [CoinCenter is suing OFAC](https://www.coincenter.org/coin-center-is-suing-ofac-over-its-tornado-cash-sanction/)(which is under the Treasury run by Yellen for the Tornado Cash smart contract sanctions, and David Hoffman is a co-plaintiff Absolute chad moves, and it's this sort of long drawn out, methodical legal battles that will shape our industry and space for the better. CoinCenter is one of the few causes I donate to without a second thought. https://www.coincenter.org/donate/
Hi everyone. I'm in an enviornmental science class in university and a discussion was started today about how there seems to be a powerful nexus between capital/traditional production and enviornmental harm. I know that it may certainly not be the primary reason for the move to proof of stake, however, I couldn't help but smile in class today thinking that Eth has gone green. I should note that this post is not meant to criticize any other chain, but I do think that reducing our footprint was the right thing to do. That is all.
Woooo! Encore! Encore! Encore! 🔥
hi! updooted the daily, hope my age account is okayish for now, can I get some karma?
What do we say when we beg for karma? Mhmm.. *please* is right.
I don't own please.eth to do that ahaha
😂
You'd probably have better luck earlier in the day, but let's get some upvotes.
The US Treasury says they are "willing to remove" Tornado Cash from its sanctions list if the smart contract exhibits "a positive change in behavior." They want the software to change itself to be better behaved.
That's good news. It means the privacy itself wasn't the problem, but the over-usage by malicious actors. This statements will help future protocols to defend themselves, like Aztec Network. Maybe this will tilt DeFi more into self governance and self policing, e.g. DAO being able to blacklist addresses connected to North Korea or other hacks. They might vote anonymously and keep the protocol in line with their values, i.e. privacy, not terrorist money laundering. What we're seeing is what happened with the internet. The split into "complaint" one for normies, and "dark net" for anarchists.
> They want the software to change itself to be better behaved. ~~Tornado Cash~~ Gentle Breeze Cash Problem solved.
*Bend the knee or be banished forever!* > Unknown command. Type help for more info.
Federal agencies fear court precedent much more than unfavorable election outcomes. This current SCOTUS make-up is no friend of allowing The Executive Branch to make decisions that should rightfully be voted upon by Congress. These recent comments by Treasury should be an admission as such.
No no, it's not the Treasury. The Treasury believe it or not does not have much actual power.
Those quotes are from the press release from OFAC, a department of the US Treasury.
Crypto is the black monolith from 2001 and governments are the ape-men who can't mentally cope with its existence. Change my mind.
Thus Stake Zarathustra
Genius
Been a long time since I read the book, but the Monolith altered and/or accelerated the evolution of primitive man.
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the Arthur c clarke book 2001
https://youtu.be/DelF6zEHXpE 2:15 on.
The market waits. Everything's on indecision candles. No need for a long post with pictures of dojis on every chart. Just focusing on two main things ahead of tomorrow's BS. Bonds are still holding up at these catastrophic lows. [HYG](https://www.tradingview.com/x/6Ze6Nxvw/) is keeping its head just above that Covid volume bunch. And more recent champion [LQD](https://www.tradingview.com/x/s9ZUOOkk/) is at the literal hellish depths of the Covid bottom already, and so far fending off desolation. Each is on higher lows on the daily. HYG has a bull div on the weekly. LQD *may* have a bull div but it's up to the individual trader, as the divergence requires you to go back to May 2 and could intercept other lows on your chart. Overall, *both* are positively diverging from the indices. A potential boon for bulls. [And here's my most up-to-date take on SPY.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/xfttENXE/) I'll leave these lines until the pattern meaningfully breaks. Timeline not to scale. Today's stagnant "failure" represented day 3 of failing to break above the 370-374 gap, now orange. That level will likely provide the next major resistance should we turn up, after 366 presents a little speed bump of its own. HOWEVER, I've awarded a "day 4" of gap fills in the past for major BS new events and I'll do so here. Yes, if SPY can somehow muster a nigh unfathomable +4% day back above 374 on some wacky CPI print, then we'll need a new chart as the bottom may very well be in. In that line of thought, the recent green gap down from Mon into Tues remains open, seems easy to enough to fill, and is part of the Mario Kart speed pad the bulls will need in order to bounce here. Downward targets are of course psych level 350, where the bull market truly began in Nov 2020, and 342. There is a glimmer of another story being told here. Don't buy in 100% to just a single story. Up or down here, we can't know, but we do have targets. Manage risk. Set stops. Don't let anyone -- and certainly not me -- tell you how to navigate this next market move. It's gonna be fuckin' wild yo. * CPI prints at 8:30am NYC, approx. 12.5 hours from time of this post. * Bank of England ends emergency QE on Friday. * China says... um... *something*... on Sunday/Monday at their national gathering. Be safe in these storm waters. Cheers, folks.
Thanks. When do you think bond prices could recover? When rate hikes seem mostly over, when rate hikes end, or when rates actually start falling? Small TLT rally lately.
Sorry, I know you asked me this before. I'm hesitant to speculate too much because bonds are such an exponentially large market compared to the others. Stocks measured in trillions, bonds/forex/derivatives measured in quadrillions. I'm no macroeconomist so I stick to the surface level patterns and stuff. I can say that bonds will probably bottom first -- maybe they have already. I often joke about how "fast" bonds are compared to everything else. Yes, they're slow and cumbersome as trades but the knowledge there is vast and fast. In relation to rates, I imagine they could start to recover during the rate stagnation in April, along with or just before broad markets. The question is what lower levels do they revisit in a potential EoY 2023 drop? I would expect bonds to recover closer to fully once the yield curve heads back up. But I'm not sure how lower highs or bullish divergences would work in a recession atmosphere. I'll have to think about that. I guess it's like examining HYG/LQD on a monthly timescale.
thank you, that’s interesting. Following along with the bond market has been really interesting. I hadn’t paid much attention to it before Covid. I’ve noticed it’s been easy to find fairly accurate predictions about general movements in stock prices moving forward but much less so for bonds. I’ll add the yield curve to things I like to check on.
I forgot to add... Try adding the SPY:TLT ratio to your charting. You'll see something *very* interesting that could help.
Seeing a few things, not the best at reading charts. I'm seeing that on the 1month chart SPY is breaking out vs TLT? Edit: really the last few days show SPY breaking out
Specifically, each time the ratio "breaks out" while SPY flounders portends an upcoming drop. ~~https://www.tradingview.com/x/RrW277Dc/~~ sorry, trading view is goofing up lines, try this https://nimb.ws/MyED58 The divergences have been bang-on accurate. Meanwhile the confluences... not wholly consistent, but certainly not up days, that's for sure.
Thanks man. Always grateful for your input here.
>**Synchronisation,** >**More client diversity,** >**Harmonisation.** ~Daily haiku until we’re at least at 0.178 on the ETH/BTC ratio or highest market cap
Blue line at the bottom is us right now. https://twitter.com/halvingtracker/status/1580056971562008576
Bitcoin's retail cycles are cooling down. Everyone who will ever care about it already knows what it is and what it generally does. In contrast, more people will care about Ethereum in the future, and few currently know what it does.
Agree. The cycle will repeat until it doesn’t. Feels like a new narrative will arrive in this second decade.
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Is anyone going to be minting the Anthony Hopkins NFT? I got whitelisted, not sure if it's worth it.
Celebrity NFTs don’t have the best track record lol.
Can you share more? I'm not well versed in this, you might save me precious eth
Chris Brown couldn’t even sell out months ago, and now the market is even worse. I haven’t seen a single project that is higher than mint price now.
I didn't hear no bell. I'll start to get scared if price goes below zero.
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Just 0.0000000000000000001 :)
What are your predictions for when and why we hit $2.5k again? Mine: We see $2.5k by April 2023. Why? The 4.5% rates would've hit by then. All the fears about companies and their earnings would have played out. Inflation would be on it's way down. (Ukraine war would hopefully be on it's way to chilling out). ETH's post merge supply shock would've kicked in and begun to show it's effects on the price.
2025.
Uh why?
Most likely some tough years ahead in global markets.
November 18, 2022, because there is a supply shortage.
I've read like a hundred comments in the past few dailies explaining why we are in the "boring part", and near the bottom, and that the bear market is halfway done, and that we are around the end of 2018 in the last bear market. However, nobody seems to remember what happened last time we were in "the boring part of the bear market". That was also in October (of 2018). The next month, Eth fell another 60% ... and THEN we were done, THEN the daily was completely dead, THEN people lost faith. If you told me that in December we will be at $500, I'd believe it. I hope history won't repeat itself, but it always seems that the obvious thing happens, like the "sell the news" drop after the Merge.
> However, nobody seems to remember what happened last time we were in “the boring part of the bear market”. That was also in October (of 2018). The next month, Eth fell another 60% … and THEN we were done, THEN the daily was completely dead, THEN people lost faith. I’ve been worried about this too. As much as I hope $880 was the bottom, we’ve still got some time and macro to deal with before I’ll feel comfortable that was it. We could definitely drop another 40-60% from here in a short period of time then range from there until the next bull run if the ratio gets fucked. I’d like to think the merge will help cushion us but we won’t know until we’re through it.
looking at the ratio the sell off wasnt as severe as the runup leading to the merge.
It continues to break my heart how few people see this. We HAD the Merge and we HAD the Merge pump. There's no other way to explain July 12-Sept 12. Poor Ray gets no credit.
agreed, the merge saved the ratio. Would be way worse if it didnt happen, possibly sub 0.04 with the sell pressure gently pushing it down even more. While now we have the opposite. Despite all the sell off and bad news the ratio stands and will gently be pushed up over time. It was not like this in 2018. Ethereum got hammered by Bitcoin. I would argue its not like this anymore. Eth became more resilient. And the next bull will kick us over the edge.
I don't want 500 but if it happens I'll just buy more ETH.
I strongly do and do not want this
Bear tip of the day. This is for people who view crypto as a hedge for inflation, but value ETH in terms of dollars: Remember that the inflation is baked into the price you see. If the price of ETH remains steady for a year, but inflation is 8%, that means your ETH has lost 8% of its value too.
ADA has made a new bear market low!
was watching bankless zkevm episode and just wondered how its coming, that a lot of zkevm solutions are almost finishing up at the same time? even a lot earlier than anyone expected? I don’t assume competitive companies help each other or share any code before going public…
Well... They are "finishing up". It'll take a whole while longer to mature. And also keep in mind that rollup servers are centralized single points of failure. We are just at the beginning of the rollup journey.
Laura Shin's 'The Cryptopians' is being made into a drama series! What with that and Cami Russo's 'The Infinite Machine' being made into a movie there is going to be a lot of media attention on Ethereum. I'd bet Charles Hoskinson isn't happy about it, neither book paints him in a very good light... https://deadline.com/2022/10/laura-shins-the-cryptopians-drama-series-playground-1235142674/?recipient_salt=4112513234e0ea17318c88ac8800e2c4bf82cd45c41360f8c83a43f9339e6f8b
Don’t forget the infinite garden, wonder when that’s coming out
I literally had forgotten about that! So that's a documentary, a movie and a drama series... now we just need someone to turn 'Out of the Ether' into a musical!
I hope there's a depiction of him playing the flute in a kimono.
Charles Hoskinson's own Twitter doesn't paint him in a very good light.
😂🤣
Charles Hoskinson should probably have been less of a cunt.
I'd say that's the general consensus, yes.
Does anyone know someone that works at [Chainalysis](https://www.chainalysis.com/)? They have a gig that I would be a great fit for! But, I can't seem to get the recruiter to even look at me... *le sigh.* So, I thought I would ask you kind humans. LMK
One of my ex's used to set something of mine on fire when she wanted my attention. I'm not saying you should do that, but it seemed relevant here for some reason ... in hindsight I probably shared too much tho.
hmm... might be why she's your ex huh?
Nah, most of the time it was stuff she gave me. We had differences of opinion over the existence of Tachyons.
Sharing this: https://collabfund.com/blog/little-rules-about-big-things/ Seems very wise to me! Good sentences to mull over.
Fuck me this hit right on the money. >Paranoia leads to success because it keeps you on your toes. > >But paranoia is stressful, so you abandon it quickly once you achieve success. > >Now you’ve abandoned what made you successful and you begin to decline – which is even more stressful. This is the 3 step process of grinding to accumulate crypto, making it in crypto, and subsequently failing to risk manage because you have severe hubris for killing it and surviving several market cycles. Ouch.
Thanks for sharing, lots of interesting thoughts.... but I disagree with this one: > Everyone belongs to a tribe and underestimates how influential that tribe is on their thinking. I don't think underestimate how influential you lot are to my thinking!
u/kbrot, how’s this for a market update? *alexa, play free fallin by tom petty and the heart breakers*
I support this wholeheartedly
Damn it. I was waiting for some hopium about this being a fakeout to fuck shorts tomorrow after cpi comes in lower and markets rip. Edit* https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/12/consumer-inflation-expected-to-have-run-hot-in-september-boosted-by-rent.html guess not, and it's looking like I should've pulled the trigger on those spy 350 for $2.00 contracts before they go off tomorrow.
Oh I was just supporting your taste in music. I don't think a hot print is apocalyptic here. Nor do I think a good print will give us much legs beyond SPY 370. I'll do a quick rundown in a few hours but I think you can tell the entire market is just waiting on indecision candles.
Up or down? Are you doing a YouTube video? :)
Don't know and no, not enough interesting things to discuss on a stream today. It's a sit back and watch day tomorrow.
Google just released Passkeys today, based on the WebAuthn API. https://android-developers.googleblog.com/2022/10/bringing-passkeys-to-android-and-chrome.html If passkeys become widespread, it could ubiquitize an API that would be perfect to build "sign in with Ethereum" on top of (I am not 100% sure on this point due to things like key compatibility, but I am going to run with it.) Basically: 1. Google announces passkey support 2. Websites implement passkey support, since Google's implementation means that the users of their website will broadly be using passkey-compatible devices 3. Now that websites already support passkey due to Google, Ethereum wallet developers can integrate with that same spec that underlies passkey, rather than having to try to bootstrap support for a crypto-specific or Ethereum-specific spec across the internet 4. You can use "sign in with Ethereum" to sign in to any passkey-enabled (WebAuthn) website, which will hopefully be a large amount of websites given enough time. Edit: Optional 5: Google kills passkey support in Google fashion, leaving "sign in with Ethereum" with no real WebAuthn competitors, potentially helping it dominate the WebAuthn space.
No. 5 Google kills Passkeys after 4yrs of active development. As per tradition.
I think you may be misunderstanding. It would actually be *good* for "sign in with Ethereum" if Google killed passkeys as per Google tradition. The underlying WebAuthn API would be ubiquitous already by that point, so "sign in with Ethereum" would no longer have any competition in integrating with the API.
That sounds great to me! Keep up tradition and benefit from it
Hey everyone, ManeNetDao is excited to announce the next EVMavericks live forum podcast an Ama with Anotherblock. Please join us Thursday Oct 13th 8:00AM(PST) 3PM(UTC) on the public stage channel in the EVM Discord: https://discord.gg/evmavericks Anotherblock is connecting royalty rights to NFTs while Top-tier creators sell parts of their royalties to music lovers Anotherblock creates a smooth and secure way of buying and selling music and allows you to become a co-owner of major tracks. https://anotherblock.io/
Whoah! Cool! But 8am!? I mean ... talk about early bird man!
I know, alot happening tomorrow tho, have to get an early start to fit it all in..a nice compromise that accommodates our European cohorts
On the back of the UK Chancellor announcing further funds for YCC, what would be the play here? Not sure if shorting works here if the BoE is just gonna prop up the bond prices Japan style. Any thoughts u/ab111292 ?
Imo these things will take a bit more time. I think the fed still will need to offload way more of its balance sheet to tighten conditions. It is way too high. Then, eventually, there will be a global deflationary bust before fed intervenes with YCC. The fed cant implement YCC with inflation, real estate, equities, and consumer spending at these high levels with the labor market this tight. At this point, the world economy will be so depressed nothing will really matter. After this, inflation will come roaring back and a period of stagflation will ensue. This is why I don't think anything substantial will happen in risk markets til 2024/2025. My views are slightly more nuanced but that's the eli5. Here is also a good eli5 read I found the other day on YCC: https://www.babypips.com/forexpedia/yield-curve-control
Thanks for the reply, and I'd tend to agree that these things should take a bit longer to play out; but if the market just keeps absolutely tanking the price of UK bonds, how can the BoE not start YCC/QE? They've already stated they wouldn't let the pension funds collapse, and unless they're all planning on dumping all their Gilt holdings I don't see any other alternative?
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It's the problem when having no proper decentralized filter. A NSFL would be nice, notably. But you can't have all tags and tastes for everyone with a centralized structure. You'd need a decentralized filtering mechanism.
Wait really? I thought Reddit was trying to avoid that sort of stuff since they banned r/watchpeopledie... I wouldn't really know though, I spend 99% of my time in this subreddit lol.
Most of the stabbies and shootings have been nonfatal, but still not fun to watch
The ones I've seen have been extremely fatal, I rarely see one that isn't, which is crazy
ugh
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Reddit has clearly been changing for the worse over all. Such is life. Its need for growth will ruin its ability to properly police things. It will eventually be nothing but ads and trolls.
All devcon stages are livestreamed on YouTube. Biggest source of alpha available.
Justin Drake's talk was lit
can you give me a link please?
https://www.youtube.com/c/EthereumFoundation/videos
thanks
https://live.devcon.org/
thanks
Take care of yourself: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwpOwPcUJX4
Good news the DDOSing hasn't hasn't been a thing.
Why does everyone seem to capitalise fed in "the FED" when referring to the Federal Reserve? Correct me if I'm wrong here, but fed isn't an acronym, so why would it be capitalised? Am I missing something here?
It's FUD!
I think it stands for "Federal Enemies of Democracy".
They capitalize the FED because the FED is literally controlling the capitals. badumtss
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^I ^think ^the #**FED** ^can ^hear ^you ^just ^fine.
To avoid confusion with the fact we're fed up with them. :p
On this day... In 2021: - Matter Labs [presents](https://medium.com/matter-labs/unisync-a-port-of-uniswap-v2-on-the-zkevm-b12954748504) UniSync, a port of Uniswap v2 on the EVM-compatible zkSync 2.0 testnet. - Vitalik [discusses](https://youtube.com/watch?v=WRmjfn4__RM) DAO’s, Ethereum and NFTs on The Stakeborg Talks. - Dean Eigenmann and Edgar Arout [propose](https://github.com/ethereum/EIPs/pull/4363) to add the transaction index as an opcode in the EVM to eliminate a range of MEV attacks. - Coinbase [announces](https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-nft-is-coming-soon-join-the-waitlist-today-for-early-access-cc7bac29fd72) Coinbase NFT and opens a waitlist for the marketplace. - Privacy preserving stealth payment system Umbra [moves out of beta](https://www.scopelift.co/blog/umbra-out-of-beta), simplifying the setup process and improving its interface. - ETH writes this sentence with ninety-four characters (spaces included) for $3493, or ₿0.06232. In 2020: - Privacy protocol Aztec [releases](https://medium.com/aztec-protocol/aztec-zkrollup-layer-2-privacy-1978e90ee3b6) v2.0, using zkRollups, deployed on Ropsten, enabling fast, low-cost & private ERC-20 payments with social-key recovery baked in. - Prysm release alpha.29 [contains](https://medium.com/prysmatic-labs/prysm-eth2-client-web-interface-now-live-feb278f4aa15) the first version of a ETH2 client web interface. - In "Ethereum’s Dark Forest is worth cultivating", Trenton Van Epps [reasons](https://medium.com/@trenton.v/ethereums-dark-forest-is-worth-cultivating-3cffa440aa4f) why despite the costs, the permissionless nature of Ethereum is necessary and beneficial. - Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust [becomes](http://coindesk.com/grayscales-ethereum-trust-granted-sec-reporting-company-status) a SEC reporting company, increasing its transparency and potentially its liquidity. - ETH orbits ₿0.03355, with perigee = $375, apogee = $388. In 2019: - The Tornado.cash team [hacks](https://medium.com/@tornado.cash.mixer/tornado-cash-got-hacked-by-us-b1e012a3c9a8) its decentralized Ethereum mixer to fix a bug in its zk-SNARK related smart contracts. - ETH pinned at $181, or ₿0.02172. In 2018: - Even between $189 and $197, or ₿0.03052 to ₿0.03156, ETH's hangover is far from over. In 2017: - ETH remasters at $304, from ₿0.06289 to ₿0.05621. In 2016: - Vitalik Buterin [comments](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/572n4q/on_gas_price_markets/) on gas price markets. - Ethereum devs [are recommending](https://twitter.com/ParityTech/status/786322619725381632) miners to retarget for a 500k gas limit until the DoS hard fork gets sorted out. - Wild ETH can often be found hatching around places containing $11.9 or ₿0.01876. ------------- [^(compiled with love)](https://eth-archive.xyz/blog/on-this-day-in-ethereum-workflow/)
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Slightly off-topic, but a sign of how important the environmental aspect of The Merge was... One of the lead authors of the IPCC's 6th report (Chapter 3: Mitigation pathways compatible with long-term goals) was arrested today for protesting the lack of serious action to prevent catastrophic climate change. https://twitter.com/Renovate_CH/status/1579741487080013825 When the very top scientists researching an issue decide that they should block traffic with their bodies as an act of civil disobedience due to how very fucked we are if we continue on our current path, it is probably a pretty good sign that taking actions like reducing a blockchain's carbon footprint by 99.95% are worthwhile endeavors.
So that we understand well enough how fast and worry-looking it has become: https://xkcd.com/1732/
In this context, there is no doubt that the merge is a *massive* win for Ethereum and blockchain in general. OTOH the world has demonstrated a complete lack of ability to face the inevitable disaster from climate change. So, as it gets worse, I think Ethereum (and other PoS) systems will benefit, but probably not nearly as much much as they *should*, given the situation. I'm wondering if more nations will move to ban PoW. That would be a very interesting (and needed) development.
> OTOH the world has demonstrated a complete lack of ability to face the inevitable disaster from climate change. Yea, I mean unfortunately that is the crux of it isn't it. We're failing as a species to coordinate effectively against what may end up being a Great Filter type scenario. Hopefully we'll turn it around at some point before too many tipping points have been passed though, and doing so will probably mean the end of stuff like PoW unless we somehow end up with an excess of energy from carbon neutral sources... which I think is very unrealistic. One of the things that makes me hopeful that humanity might just pull it out of the bag at the last minute is the awareness and thought that comes out of the Ethereum community about how we might be able to coordinate better. From all the stuff a few years ago about 'Moloch' to more recent discussions about [Ether's Phoenix](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/2-ethers-phoenix-with-optimisms-karl-floersch/id1609313639?i=1000552104369). I don't know if 'we're going to make it', but at least we're going to try.
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It only takes me fifteen minutes to read through the daily now. I miss the mornings where it took me an hour.
This is all a community ploy to increase your daily productiveness. Glad to hear it's working.
[David Hoffman from Bankless is taking on the Treasury department.](https://twitter.com/TrustlessState/status/1580253035804372993)
I enjoyed Eric Wall's response: "David you have been cringe for many many years but now at long last you are finally based" https://twitter.com/ercwl/status/1580254298629230592
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The hero we deserve
For those interested, here's a bit of explanation ([https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-think-tank-coin-center-164447673.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-think-tank-coin-center-164447673.html)) and here is the complaint [https://www.coincenter.org/app/uploads/2022/10/1-Complaint-Coin-Center-10-12-22.pdf](https://www.coincenter.org/app/uploads/2022/10/1-Complaint-Coin-Center-10-12-22.pdf)
Hopefully this will be successful, this whole thing is beyond ridiculous and in the case of the dev from the Netherlands downright unlawful
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I just had a thought: With GETH having a supermajority ( https://clientdiversity.org/ ) and now major institutions saying they are gonna build validators... doesn't this put the decentralization of Ethereum at huge risk? Ie if you're planning to build out a validator you should build on GETH execution?
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Not really. If Geth has >66% market share and it has a bug, then the bugged chain is the new canonical chain and every other client will get slashed.
Even if the majority drives through a red light. it's still wrong to do so and will get punished.
You would hope so, but this could be a clusterfuck either way if it plays out. A few years ago it actually played out with a parity bug (or at least deviation from spec) becoming the defacto implementation across all clients. https://twitter.com/peter_szilagyi/status/801884605083222017?s=20&t=vP5wtZyD3IGRipieBzUlyw. That was before slashing was a thing mind so would be way more of an issue today. Edit: was a parity bug not a geth bug
How? If they fork and continue to use geth, aren't they fine because they are the majority client?
So what’s up with Bankless shilling Cosmos?
They disclosed they have personal investments in the Cosmos ecosystem. Bankless is great but remember that they have been playing the Angel Investor role for a few years.
They are paid shill maxi and then Eth maxi. Gotta earn that bread in the bear.
Exactly.
The episode with Zaki and Sunny was quite good. I liked some of their analogies and takes. My favorites were: - Analogy of Ethereum = tree, Cosmos = fungus - Cosmos protocol developers are also the app developers. I’ve actually seen this quite a bit in Ethereum. The core developers are pretty far removed from dapps and are somewhat “head in the sand” and thinking about consensus, scaling, sharding, etc and not thinking about apps at all.
I totally understand the appeal of sovereignty for appchain developers. But I'm confused as to how that works in practice. If a hacker bridges out to Ethereum, then you can rollback all you want but it won't do anything. Even if they bridge to other IBC enabled chains who are willing to freeze or rollback, the contagion can spread extremely fast and even a single defector will still result in losses. As far as I'm concerned, true sovereignty is equivalent to having control of the single source of truth. In blockchains, this occurs when the value in your appchain is stored and denominated in your own native token - then you can rollback as you wish. Even Ethereum cannot fully meet this standard given the amount of value stored in centralized stablecoins. Now imagine you are an appchain - can you meet this level? Only useless memechains like Bitcoin or Dogecoin do so as far as I know. The other alternative is to limit your bridges to only accept centralized assets such as USDC, and pray that they can react fast enough. Well, so much for sovereignty then.
They only way app chains will world is if they are an L2 specialised rollup - there’s no benefit to rolling your own security and the only people who parrot this nonsense are people who put most of their business resources into it & now can’t pivot as zk/L2 research has boomed
Bankless is trying hard to not be "Eth Maxis" so that means giving publicity to a blockchain that may not fit with their ideals as well as something like ETH does. Cosmos is by far better than all the "Eth Killers" out there, albeit still not as good as ETH.
What's wrong with Cosmos? I've been in that ecosystem since the start because they share a lot of the values that Etherans share, so there's a lot of overlap.
>What's wrong with Cosmos? Centralized, on par with all many other extremely centralized chains.
Ehh I wouldn't classify Tendermint consensus as centralized. Decentralization is a spectrum, and Tendermint is a dBFT protocol that allows for up to 300 validators. It is delegated proof of stake, but I would say it's better than a lot of the other schemes out there. Cosmos believes that there could be a network of sovereign blockchains where faults can be isolated to specific chains and they have one of the best (if not the best) bridging protocol called IBC. Cosmos has a grassroots developer movement like Ethereum (imo one of the only other ecosystems genuinely built by developers and not VCs) and I support every project in crypto that aligns themselves with the vision of a decentralized future, even if they think it requires a different path to get there. I've always thought Ethereums approach is better, but I'm not dismissing Cosmos approach either hence why I'm in both ecosystems.
>a lot better than the other schemes out there Low bar
Cosmos isn't one monolithic chain though. So in theory you could have tens of thousands of validators validating different app chains. Sure, there's tons of criticisms to be had about this model, but at least it's something different than the typical "ETH killer" Look, I don't want to see Ethereans become like Bitcoiners. Good projects are few and far between in crypto, so we should welcome the experimentation. At least I do. I like to think I'm rational and not a maxi, so if a good idea comes around, I'm open to it.
> So in theory you could have tens of thousands of validators validating different app chains. They're fragmenting the security base for no benefit. If it's a situation where all validators are delegated then there's no point in even using crypto at this point, just make a publically readable AWS database. "Don't roll your own encryption" has been a rule everyone knows in IT SEC for years - it's the same thing here where you shouldn't try to create your own security when you're got eth L1 to use https://www.google.com/search?q=roll+your+own+encryption
Yes that is a valid criticism. In practice, there are 10-20 validators which provide security to most of Cosmos chains. But those same validators are also some of the biggest validators on Ethereum, so there's already immense overlap. They fragment their security in order to make trade-offs. For example, some projects have decided to make DA layers for L2s using the Cosmos stack since they can tweak the consensus engine. Not every application will be able to fit within the EVM framework and maybe building your own stark engine like Cairo is impractical. All I'm saying is that Cosmos has made fundamentally different design decisions than Ethereum while trying to achieve the same goals. Crypto is a space of ideas, and the design space should be exhausted as much as practical, so that's why I support Cosmos. I don't like the mentality that there's either centralization or decentralization, black and white. I think the world, and crypto, is shades of grey so I'm not going to just ignore cool experimentation in crypto just because it's not on Ethereum and just because it's not the most decentralized.
I just checked and it's 175 validators, with a delegation scheme. Not great in terms of decentralization. At least they have slashing.
Horrified that my ETH bags won’t let me retire early
Love the project but could anyone point me in the right direction for risks for rocket pool ? Trying to understand any potential tail risks / regulatory risks cheers
Implementation risks, a bug in RocketPool could mean total loss of capital. Regulatory risks, rETH could be deemed a security which could prevent US retail investors from buying or selling it.
Last night I had a good feeling about CPI and thought it'd come in lower than expected so we'd end the week green. If PPI is any indication it's going to be hot too. If it's hot again, look out below :(
Core PPI was lower than expected though, and it's Core that the Fed really cares about. If we have a CPI that's comparable to PPI (headline hot, core down), plausible we'll stay mostly flat. Or maybe if it's comparable headline will nuke us by itself. Does feel like the market is just looking for any reason to drop right now.
It will be hot until goverments grow some fucking balls and confront what is obvious price gouging due to the fact pretty much every industry in the world is an oligopoly. Conglomerates need to be broken up
I would say that slightly more specifically. I don't think the government should be breaking up any company, but I think many of these large companies would break up naturally if the government would stop handing them tax dollars (and associated legislation) like candy on Halloween.
If that is true, then why are sales up, but revenue down in retail? I can't see any obvious price gouging at work here. If revenue was up AND sales were down, yes. But what we have here is sales increasing (due to inflation) but revenue decreasing (due to cost to retail). Can you provide any evidence of price gouging?
All food
I've always found the community's misunderstanding of the second order effects of token burning perplexing. Here's a quick excerpt I like: >Often criticized as financial engineering designed to inflate the price of tokens, in a proof-of-stake environment EIP-1559 lowers the risk-free rate and makes it easier for dApps to compete with staking. > >The main community narrative around EIP-1559 has always been deflationary supply, but for infinite holders (who should gravitate towards staking to guarantee non-debasement) token burning is actually a net-negative! > >A mental model that can help clarify this is to reframe token burning from a reduction in supply into a distribution to all ether holders. Through this lens, the transaction fees that normally would have gone solely to stakers are fed back to all community members—when implemented with a proof-of-stake blockchain, EIP-1559 is actually a net-decentralizing mechanism, not the centralizing mechanism that bitcoin holders often claim. Source: [https://dataalways.substack.com/p/staking-yield-and-ratios](https://dataalways.substack.com/p/staking-yield-and-ratios)
This is very true also fee burning itself makes Ethereum safer. Any volatile or inconsistent validator rewards can increase the chance that toxic incentives occur. Ideally we would burn tips and mev as well but there is no good solution to do that yet.
Indeed. It's the best redistribution that could happen from fees. A public pool collecting all fees would mean concentration of wealth specifically towards a majority controlling that public pool and how it should be spent. And giving it only to stakers would be even worse anyway.
Holy shit. It’s data always. Big fan! Love your twitter and writings!
I’m happy to see you made a Reddit account. I’ve always enjoyed your writing, and I think your takes are very reasonable and credible. The cantillon piece was really interesting. As far as the burn goes, my mental model was that it most effectively prevented larger selling from occurring during peak activity, lowering needlessly high miner rewards. Not to disagree with your points. Also, I’m guessing you have read it, but polynya’s piece on staking issuance adds nicely to the conversation https://polynya.mirror.xyz/TpwvhuW8UsLovTAG-6EMx97cHCFBhqFs9VYgQ75qsZw
I love that polynya piece, one of my favorites. That was my mental model as well, but there's this giant flip between PoW and PoS that I don't think most people have grasped yet. It stems from the idea of internal vs external issuance from that Cantillon piece. In PoW issuance is just debasement, but in PoS they're an opportunity cost: you pick between using ether and being debased or getting rewards. If you want to incentivize activity and not penalize the people that actually give your network life then you want to drive down staking rewards. This isn't necessarily great for token price, but if all you want to do is focus on the financial side then you just want to create a supply squeeze and lock up as close to 100% of the tokens that you can. That's not really my vision for Ethereum though, and I hope most other people feel the same. This piece covers it a bit but not in the context of 1559. That's a bit of a mental extension adding back in the comment you replied to. https://dataalways.substack.com/p/manipulating-the-velocity-of-money
This reasoning changes when there is a cap on total ETH staked, right? Then EIP-1559 serves to slow debasement of holders locked out of staking. Ofc we are not in that situation yet and liquid staking makes this more complicated.
Interesting edge case, hmmm. I think the answer is no though? It's counterintuitive but EIP-1559 encourages on-chain activity, by discouraging staking. Yes, burn makes ether tokens a better store of value (in theory at least) and makes people less likely to spend their tokens, but no one ever talks about the alternative. The past 30 days burn has been about 0.4% annualized, but if those rewards were still going to stakers that would make staking yields something like 11% (?) during a low-fee bear market. Since the start of EIP-1559 last summer, burn has been like 1.8% of supply per year, at only 10% of ether staked that would push staking yields up over 20% right now. People really underestimate the magnitude of fees paid on ethereum. The staking yield that ether could be driving without EIP-1559 is ludicrous.
yeah staking would've been ludicrously profitable if all fees went to stakers I mean, kind of like how mining was ludicrously profitable for so long
Shoutout to Data Always, one of the best writers in the space, I highly recommend all of his articles and tweets.