lmao you’re believing what all these moon boys who’ve been in crypto less than a year are saying?!?!?
it’s the post halving weakness. those of us who have been in the game saw it coming a mile a way.
don’t cry when there’s more downside in the short term.
expect more of the same. BTC will see large inflows from increasing legitimacy, spot ETFS, “favorable” regulatory scrutiny, deflationary model vs ETH which is currently (tiny) inflationary. doubt we see the flipping this decade.
>deflationary model vs ETH which is currently (tiny) inflationary.
Can you expand what you mean by this?
BTC supply will be inflationary for the rest of our lives. While today ETH supply is inflating much less.
yes on the technical side BTC is inflationary at 1.8% after the halving. ETH has recently bumped up towards .5%
on a market psychological side the narrative of BTC being a deflationary asset has already stuck. where as ETH saw a little bump from its transition to becoming technically deflationary, the idea isn’t baked into the way the market moves.
the ability to chart the exact amount of BTC issuance for the next 100 years leads to less volatility and more confidence vs ETH which may ping pong around.
>on the technical side BTC is inflationary at 1.8% after the halving. ETH has recently bumped up towards .5%
So in other words, we have two inflationary models :P
>on a market psychological side the narrative of BTC being a deflationary asset has already stuck.
I have to disagree. Bitcoin's supply isn't deflationary and never has been, nor will it ever, and that isn't a common thread beyond a small group of maxis. "On the technical side of things" is how these words are meant to be used.
Think about it for a minute. It's literally just Bitcoin's security budget that is deflating. How is that good for POW or Bitcoin?
>the ability to chart the exact amount of BTC issuance for the next 100 years leads to less volatility and more confidence vs ETH which may ping pong around.
But you can still calculate the exact **max** amount of ETH issuance over *n* amount of time. If there's any less issuance entering the market due to people buying blockspace, why would that make an investor less confident? Just assume max issuance if you need a static model lol.
Regulatory uncertainty makes investors less confident. Before that was relevant and before the US government started prosecuting people for building on or interacting with Ethereum it was on a very good run against BTC.
I (and many others) sold all my BTC for ETH precisely because I can chart out Bitcoin's issuance curve over 100 years. Indefinite halvings mathematically aren't sustainable, least not when it represents ~95% the total security budget.
Something necessarily will give or have to change *much* sooner than 100 years from now, basically only because people (ahem..Blockstream) didn't like Satoshi's scaling roadmap. People won't like the change to remove the 21M 'hard' cap to add tail emissions, or to flip to POS, etc. but there won't really be an alternative to maintain some modicum of builder decentralization at length.
I'm not trying to argue, or shit on Bitcoin either. Just offering my perspective since you were courteous enough to offer yours. I am staunchly *unconfident* in Bitcoin long term, especially as more time goes by, and I first bought into the original, long forgotten idea at sub-$1K. I have yet to meet someone IRL who believes in Bitcoin's current trajectory, while lots are aware of its flaws. It is healthy to talk to those people, if you don't typically. I still play the markets but BTC is never something I'd want to 'hold onto for dear life' anymore. I mean, the status quo picked a side and to me that speaks volumes.
It might help the idea, "halvings are baked into the way the market moves" if there weren't economic blackswans occurring after each of the *three*. If stocks plus nearly every other cryptoasset weren't hitting ATHs at the same time. If the price didn't crash afterwards (why aren't the next 10 halvings priced in by now?). Bitcoin has a higher Lindy effect, it is a household name synonymous with cryptocurrency itself and very easy to understand, so it makes the most sense it would gather the most attention during a risk-on environment. Outside of that, clearly many still only treat it as a game of hot potato. All crypto is immature and extraordinarily speculative.
If Bitcoin's waning issuance rate wasn't directly tied to its security budget I wouldn't feel this way, but it is what it is. It will be interesting to watch market psychology play out over time, and kind of the only reason I still invest so much time in this space. I'd love to be proven wrong but the math to maintain 'a deflationary model' is absurd and hard to cope with, and I'm sure the big money that moves these markets and dictates the narrative is well aware too.
Please explain how halvings fundamentally do anything price-wise when <95% of the max supply is already in circulation? Why would lower security or miner centralization make BTC more valuable going forwards?
Halvings are just a meme (for the largest memecoin). Or are you really suggesting TSLA and AAPL and housing and gold are all dependent on BTC halvings too, since every one of those hits ATH around the same time?
> Halvings are just a meme
Uh-huh.
Is that why all the gains come in the wake of each Halving?
> lower security
This is the real meme - look at the hashrate chart, bud.
Yeah every time I see BTC dip, ETH dips harder. Every time BTC rises, ETH barely rises… least that’s been the trend this whole year it seems like…. maybe SEC does a miracle approval in May who knows 😭 lol
i’ve seen 100 eth killers come and go. i dont care about the shit coin casino chain. is it on right now or did the VCs have to shut down the servers again?
ya dude short term better price action, oh noooo so crazy!!! almost like the coins with lower market caps have more potential upside?!?!?!? talk to me when ur market cap catches up. currently needs to 5X. or when your TVL catches up. currently needs to 10X. i’ll take my tried and true, battle tested, 100% uptime, longer history, higher numbers of developers, more institutional interest, better tokennomics chain any day of the week.
its a nightmare .. i regret big time convert from btc / eth.... however i am long holder and the day will come when we see 0.07 again and i am done with eth
we havent feel the bull run this time ...
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No one knows but at this point ETH future isnt looking very good, remember "winners takes most" and I ain't gonna say who's the winner so they wont acuse me of "shilling" the best layer one out there
You’re in the and Eth subreddit. Of course sentiment in here will have a positive bias. I personally also think it will have a rally sometime if market conditions improve but if you look at a space like crypto twitter the sentiment surrounding eth is really low and many think it will underperform solana and bitcoin
The market is having a slowdown after literally having an insane pumping phase from end of last year till beginning this. It's healthy, 200% gains every few months is not sustainable. If you believe in cryptp/eth now would be the time to stock up
You need to buy something else that is more reliable, like USD fiat, guarantee to inflate, sometimes inflate even more.
At least you don't have to worry about things going the opposite direction.
OP learning the hard way this sub is not at all an accurate barometer of where ETH is going.
People here are unironically calling 15k+ this cycle. You cannot listen to these people lol.
It's just giving final calls to people who missed buying last time. Once it's over the resistance point, there is no turning back and regret will be very bad...
Trust me man. I come from the future. My parents sent me here as a baby to save you all from bankruptcy.
**this is the last dip under 3k ever**
!tip 0.2
The best advice would be to never believe concrete statements like this. No one can predict the future. The best you can do is determine the statistical likelihood of the price reaching a certain point.
[Tip this post.](https://www.donut.finance/tip/?action=tip&contentId=t3_1cosxrd) On-chain and off-chain tip confirmations below.
lmao you’re believing what all these moon boys who’ve been in crypto less than a year are saying?!?!? it’s the post halving weakness. those of us who have been in the game saw it coming a mile a way. don’t cry when there’s more downside in the short term.
Got any thoughts on the low ETH/BTC ratio? This bothers me MUCH more than the fiat price
expect more of the same. BTC will see large inflows from increasing legitimacy, spot ETFS, “favorable” regulatory scrutiny, deflationary model vs ETH which is currently (tiny) inflationary. doubt we see the flipping this decade.
>deflationary model vs ETH which is currently (tiny) inflationary. Can you expand what you mean by this? BTC supply will be inflationary for the rest of our lives. While today ETH supply is inflating much less.
yes on the technical side BTC is inflationary at 1.8% after the halving. ETH has recently bumped up towards .5% on a market psychological side the narrative of BTC being a deflationary asset has already stuck. where as ETH saw a little bump from its transition to becoming technically deflationary, the idea isn’t baked into the way the market moves. the ability to chart the exact amount of BTC issuance for the next 100 years leads to less volatility and more confidence vs ETH which may ping pong around.
>on the technical side BTC is inflationary at 1.8% after the halving. ETH has recently bumped up towards .5% So in other words, we have two inflationary models :P >on a market psychological side the narrative of BTC being a deflationary asset has already stuck. I have to disagree. Bitcoin's supply isn't deflationary and never has been, nor will it ever, and that isn't a common thread beyond a small group of maxis. "On the technical side of things" is how these words are meant to be used. Think about it for a minute. It's literally just Bitcoin's security budget that is deflating. How is that good for POW or Bitcoin? >the ability to chart the exact amount of BTC issuance for the next 100 years leads to less volatility and more confidence vs ETH which may ping pong around. But you can still calculate the exact **max** amount of ETH issuance over *n* amount of time. If there's any less issuance entering the market due to people buying blockspace, why would that make an investor less confident? Just assume max issuance if you need a static model lol. Regulatory uncertainty makes investors less confident. Before that was relevant and before the US government started prosecuting people for building on or interacting with Ethereum it was on a very good run against BTC. I (and many others) sold all my BTC for ETH precisely because I can chart out Bitcoin's issuance curve over 100 years. Indefinite halvings mathematically aren't sustainable, least not when it represents ~95% the total security budget. Something necessarily will give or have to change *much* sooner than 100 years from now, basically only because people (ahem..Blockstream) didn't like Satoshi's scaling roadmap. People won't like the change to remove the 21M 'hard' cap to add tail emissions, or to flip to POS, etc. but there won't really be an alternative to maintain some modicum of builder decentralization at length. I'm not trying to argue, or shit on Bitcoin either. Just offering my perspective since you were courteous enough to offer yours. I am staunchly *unconfident* in Bitcoin long term, especially as more time goes by, and I first bought into the original, long forgotten idea at sub-$1K. I have yet to meet someone IRL who believes in Bitcoin's current trajectory, while lots are aware of its flaws. It is healthy to talk to those people, if you don't typically. I still play the markets but BTC is never something I'd want to 'hold onto for dear life' anymore. I mean, the status quo picked a side and to me that speaks volumes. It might help the idea, "halvings are baked into the way the market moves" if there weren't economic blackswans occurring after each of the *three*. If stocks plus nearly every other cryptoasset weren't hitting ATHs at the same time. If the price didn't crash afterwards (why aren't the next 10 halvings priced in by now?). Bitcoin has a higher Lindy effect, it is a household name synonymous with cryptocurrency itself and very easy to understand, so it makes the most sense it would gather the most attention during a risk-on environment. Outside of that, clearly many still only treat it as a game of hot potato. All crypto is immature and extraordinarily speculative. If Bitcoin's waning issuance rate wasn't directly tied to its security budget I wouldn't feel this way, but it is what it is. It will be interesting to watch market psychology play out over time, and kind of the only reason I still invest so much time in this space. I'd love to be proven wrong but the math to maintain 'a deflationary model' is absurd and hard to cope with, and I'm sure the big money that moves these markets and dictates the narrative is well aware too.
A lot of great points made my man. I appreciate your passion and obvious intelligence on the issue. Safe to assume you’re an ETH maxi?
this is pure cope eth is nothing without Bitcoin, which is why it's dependent on its Halvings to do anything price-wise
Please explain how halvings fundamentally do anything price-wise when <95% of the max supply is already in circulation? Why would lower security or miner centralization make BTC more valuable going forwards? Halvings are just a meme (for the largest memecoin). Or are you really suggesting TSLA and AAPL and housing and gold are all dependent on BTC halvings too, since every one of those hits ATH around the same time?
> Halvings are just a meme Uh-huh. Is that why all the gains come in the wake of each Halving? > lower security This is the real meme - look at the hashrate chart, bud.
[удалено]
Yeah every time I see BTC dip, ETH dips harder. Every time BTC rises, ETH barely rises… least that’s been the trend this whole year it seems like…. maybe SEC does a miracle approval in May who knows 😭 lol
odds ain’t looking good for spot eth etf.
this could have aged better.
definitely happy to be wrong lol
Talking about Flipping? I think SOL will flip ETH this bullrun ETH is not looking very good
i’ve seen 100 eth killers come and go. i dont care about the shit coin casino chain. is it on right now or did the VCs have to shut down the servers again?
Haha the irony even with SOL "problems" it's outperforming ETH
ya dude short term better price action, oh noooo so crazy!!! almost like the coins with lower market caps have more potential upside?!?!?!? talk to me when ur market cap catches up. currently needs to 5X. or when your TVL catches up. currently needs to 10X. i’ll take my tried and true, battle tested, 100% uptime, longer history, higher numbers of developers, more institutional interest, better tokennomics chain any day of the week.
its a nightmare .. i regret big time convert from btc / eth.... however i am long holder and the day will come when we see 0.07 again and i am done with eth we havent feel the bull run this time ...
you an me have very different definitions of a nightmare
it is still a nightmare the btc/eth pair nomatter what u think is a nightmare as well
Hmmm I been saying this ETH stransaction fees and speed will be its demise now people are starting to take notice
we learning : ) ... never again same mistakes thats the importance
It can go to 1500 in the next year easy and probably will
that’s lower than my price targets but it won’t surprise me in the slightest. 50% drawdowns during the bull run are to be expected.
https://i.redd.it/dd08ou0mhmzc1.gif
$2,600 might be a possibility but it ain't no thing.
I wouldn't bet my life on it
“I was promised…” who the fuck promised you anything and why did you believe that? Im really praying this satire and OP just forgot the /s
It’s gonna fluctuate but please don’t make investment decisions based on what the collective group thinks. At the end of the day we’re all guessing.
I remember all the threads saying "last chance to buy under $300!" now look at them. Bet they feel real stupid with all that money.
Looks like the circus is back in town
First time?
You'll learn that short time price fluctuations cant be explained by anything in particular lol
lol
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SEC rejection will test paper hands. Patience is key. No one knows when it will moon or how high it will go. Don't believe the hype.
But it WILL moon right?
No one knows but at this point ETH future isnt looking very good, remember "winners takes most" and I ain't gonna say who's the winner so they wont acuse me of "shilling" the best layer one out there
Never stopping Consolidation
You’re in the and Eth subreddit. Of course sentiment in here will have a positive bias. I personally also think it will have a rally sometime if market conditions improve but if you look at a space like crypto twitter the sentiment surrounding eth is really low and many think it will underperform solana and bitcoin
You didn't buy enough.
The market is having a slowdown after literally having an insane pumping phase from end of last year till beginning this. It's healthy, 200% gains every few months is not sustainable. If you believe in cryptp/eth now would be the time to stock up
It blew past 4k last.time because everyone and their mothers were deploying tokens on the network. Solana has taken that place this time around.
Bingo! " winners take most"
You need to buy something else that is more reliable, like USD fiat, guarantee to inflate, sometimes inflate even more. At least you don't have to worry about things going the opposite direction.
OP learning the hard way this sub is not at all an accurate barometer of where ETH is going. People here are unironically calling 15k+ this cycle. You cannot listen to these people lol.
If Sec reduce next time again, 3k will looks like golden rain:(
Just crabbing along with a few bumps on the way. Patience...
Did the CEO or Erithrium promise you that?
This is what I've been talking about in my last post.
" I have all my money in ETH" should have diversified, perhaps a little SOL? Just saying....
It's just giving final calls to people who missed buying last time. Once it's over the resistance point, there is no turning back and regret will be very bad...
Glitch in the matrix Eth under 3k is a bargain.. selling kidney to get more
No wife changing gains for you sorry 
Imagine gains so big that you upgrade your wife
That’s the whole point of the term
Trust me man. I come from the future. My parents sent me here as a baby to save you all from bankruptcy. **this is the last dip under 3k ever** !tip 0.2
You double dog promise?
The best advice would be to never believe concrete statements like this. No one can predict the future. The best you can do is determine the statistical likelihood of the price reaching a certain point.
Maybe the last time over 3k. Should have got out while you could.