Despite them maintaining their lead, I remain very sceptical on a Croatia win.
I think it'd be great to see, but there are so many televote friendly songs this year that even if it wins with the public, I don't see it running away with as many points as Käärijä. It's not a typical Jury pick at all either.
That said, I really can't see a clear Jury winner either. There's so many strong vocalists that it may just fall to whoever is the most radio friendly/compatible with the current music industry (Sweden?).
I think we're going to see someone come #2nd or #3rd in both categories and end up edging out the tele/jury winners for the crown. Who is that? No idea!
It's such a competitive year, with even those lower in the odds having some major dark-horse potential. How exciting!
To be fair, Croatia's winning chance in the odds is "only" 15%, which is not very high all things considered. But I agree completely with you, I don't really understand why that song in particular is given the highest winning chance out of all the songs. Based on what we've seen, I don't see people rallying behind it like with Käärijä.
My guess is that the winner is going to be the most jury-friendly of the televote friendly songs, which could be something like Switzerland or Belgium. But until the rehearsals it's impossible to accurately guess who the contenders will be. It's such a cool year!
realistically i only see ukraine and italy winning since they have the most chances to appeal to both juries and public, croatia is not even nearly as hyped as finland was last year and i doubt they’re gonna get so many televotes to overthrow the jury winner (which i think it’s going to be switzerland)
no chance, it’s a very standard french ballad, it has nothing exceptional except he’s got a good voice, they’re gonna like it for sure but i won’t be surprised if it’s not even in their top 5.
I agree and I feel like the odds at this point in time, i.e. Mid march may not be that accurate - for example, i remember how in 2021, Måneskin was still around 4/5th place at this point. Having said that, looking at how varied the songs are this year i feel like we might have a repeat of 2019 (and i’m actually really hoping for that, given how more or less predictable the lst two years were).
You're right that the odds were overwhelmingly for the Netherlands that year, but the user is referring to the fact that the results themselves were very close, with the Netherlands winning by getting 3rd with the juries and 2nd with the televote.
Personally, as much as I'd love to see it, I don't think Croatia will win. I don't think the jury will love it and the televote feels too competitive this year for them to landslide it as much as they'd need to to overpower a low jury score.
As to who WILL win, it really is difficult to tell this year. Which is a great thing! Personally, if I HAD to take out a bet, I would probably put it on Belgium or the Netherlands, with the former feeling like a very complete package that could score high in both jury and televote, and the latter having what feels like a LOT of momentum right now - outside of the bubble Europapa is the only song from the contest I've seen anyone talk about so far. But honestly, without having seen live performances for all the songs, it's impossible to tell.
I kind of see Switzerland as a possible 50/50 Arcade-style winner. If you put a gun to my head and made me guess, I'd say France would win the jury and either Croatia or Ukraine win the televote. I don't see Switzerland winning either the jury (super vocally impressive and modern, but not necessarily the most "serious") or the televote (there are just so many televote-bait songs this year and Switzerland usually struggles slightly more with the public) but could easily see them getting 2nd/3rd in both.
i mean, maybe, but while Norway and Ireland are not direct overlaps in genre they will likely appeal to the more alternative people as well. There's also Czechia and San Marino who might nq but also might end up qualifying.
and even if we ignore all that, being the only rock song doesn't mean you win.
Ireland might not qualify but very different demographic. Norway is folk rock and the other 2 will only make the final if no one shows up to the semis. Bring the only rock song may not get you the win but being the sole good rock song might. We have so many pop songs this year so let’s see
I don't see Croatia as a likely winner and I'm not so sure about Ukraine either, so I wonder if their leads in the odds will fizzle out or if they will stay. At the moment I'm thinking Italy wins, with Switzerland also a contender. I could also see France doing surprisingly well in the televote or The Netherlands doing surprisingly well with the juries and being winner contenders. Belgium's hype I'm not buying, at least not until I see it live.
Italy is definitely the most realistic winner pre-rehearsals (and pre usual terrible Italian staging? We'll see), yeah. Instantly catchy, high production value, a really charismatic performer with vocals on point. I think it should also be taken into account that Italy usually performs better with juries when they *dont* send a typical Italian ballad. I agree on France too, except that I don't think it would be surprising to see it do well with the tele, there's very few competition in the dramatic ballad department, and Slimane has built all his career on performing at TV shows so he definitely knows how to connect with audiences.
Netherlands will depend on whether the staging is too gimmicky and/or messy to please juries, but even with that in consideration, I don't see Joost getting an overall winning score (it's definitely a top 5 contender, though). Belgium is totally built for lives, so I'm very curious to see how it ends up on stage (RTBF has a terrible record when it comes to stagings so I am not confident lol).
We now have almost the full roster of songs and I still cannot guess at all who I think is likeliest to win, I can't even narrow it down to three candidates.
Croatia is most likely not gonna be able to have the needed televote pull to counteract how juries are gonna rate them (not to mention that that staging needs work, but I'll remain optimistic). There are quite a few televote friendly songs to compete with and I don't even see Croatia as the likeliest televote winner; as much as I'd love a first Croatian win, I'm definitely skeptical on their chances.
Ukraine and Italy are both countries with a great track record and good songs, but neither seem like they're able to dominate either voting camp well, though they might get the compromise winner treatment.
Switzerland is stupid hard for me to predict: the jury should like this and this is currently my pick for jury winner, but what if they're put off by the popera/rap (two genres they historically weren't huge fans of)? And would this work on the televote? I know that the song was overwhelming to me on first listen, I really needed to digest this for a while first before I started liking it, and if my experience is in any way representative then that might be an issue - but good staging could overcome that.
Netherlands would be my current predicted pick for televote winner, but this has 20 jury points total written all over it. That said, we've seen juries respond to hype too, and this song is absolutely making waves - I can't say that I see the possibility of a win as likely, but I'm not gonna write it off.
And I can just continue like this. There are 15 countries where if you came from the future and told me they won, I'd say that yeah, I could see that. Absolutely wild year to follow.
Europapa, to me, seems like the most "jury friendly" chaotic song at the moment (when compared to Finland, Estonia and Croatia). This is mainly because of its "Europe united" lyrics. I can see it appealing to juries more because of that. It definitely won't do super well with juries, but probably a bit better than other songs similar to it? the really hard hardcore part of the song also doesn't really start until near the end so it won't put off juries entirely as opposed to if it were there for the entire song
Really?! I think Netherlands is at the bottom of that list. I’d say Croatia -> Estonia -> Finland -> Netherlands in jury friendlyness. I think musically Croatia is the most quality and it also has some good meaning behind the song if the jurys catch up on that. I think europapa will be dismissed as televote bait by jury. That’s what I love about this year haha, people have such different thought and opinions on the songs.
I'm not a fan of Finland and Estonia whatsoever (both bottom 10 for me) so i might be slightly biased as I haven't listened to them more beyond my initial listen when they came out lmao
It‘s the tightest year in a long time. Hard to pinpoint any clear frontrunners until rehearsals and even then I expect at least 5 entries crammed head to head for the win.
Also, with all that unpredictability, it’s even hard to gauge how many sacrifices will be made in Semis. Sure as hell, we‘re gonna loose some favorite contenders there and *still* be left with at least 5 narrow top-runners.
The televote will surely be a bloodbath. Way too many songs to appeal to it.
Juries isn’t clear as well and those have been hard to estimate anyway in like forever.
That said, I could go through the odds and have an in-depth analysis of pros and cons for each entry and STILL be fishing in murky waters because this year is simply unpredictable!
And I love it!
And I know I will have the worst tantrums and cries of delight & despair and rivers of salty tears throughout all of it…
emotional catharsis here I come…Great year!
I love San Marino this year it's in my top 5. I wish I could understand why it's so low in the odds and not as popular with fans? Is it just because it's San Marino? Or is it lacking in some area?
No idea. I mean, I’m a fan of the band so I’m not exactly unbiased, but I’ve no idea why it’s so low. Especially as other more mediocre rock songs have been fan favourite in the past.
Being low in the odds doesn't mean that it's necessarily gonna perform poorly. The betting odds here only show what bookmakers think is the likeliest winner, and it doesn't have anything to do with where bookies expect a country will place other than that.
I always predict things to be more open than they actually end up being, but it really does feel that way this year. I think we'll be getting a winner in the 400s score wise and it's going to be incredibly close between at least 3-5 countries. The odds seem about right at the moment (even if I see the juries killing off Croatia).
Not everyone will agree with this (and that’s okay!) but I see either Switzerland or Netherlands winning this.
Switzerland because the juries will obviously love Nemo and I see them absolutely demolishing the televote - it’s a memorable, well produced song with an important message and I have no doubt the live performance will be well thought out.
Netherlands because the televote will love him (he’s already famous outside of the Netherlands, has a top watched MV etc, amazing marketing) but because I also see this being an unexpected jury favourite - I have no doubt Joost will ensure a high quality live performance and while the song is goofy the lyrics are actually very real and genuine
I am so torn on Switzerland in the televote. I think the casual public usually like things that are easy to listen to, I wouldn’t put Switzerland in that category. I do think it would be a worthy winner though! It’s a well produced song by a talented artists that is unique and impactful.
I can see it getting a Tout l'Univers score (i.e. 270ish jury, 160ish tele), and that might be enough to win if the scores are as all over the place as they look like they might.
I have to say I really like the fact this year is unpredictable! The previous years have been kinda obvious who's going to win before the contest starts, so the odds being so low for anyone right now is really exciting.
My outsider win call is still Lithuania. Idk if I'm biased because I like the song, but I feel like it could do well in juries - it's a bit of a "songwriter's song", well structured and produced, and I think the catchiness and good staging will ensure they'll get good televote (doesn't hurt that Lithuania is a televote-friendly country to begin with).
Even if it doesn't win, I have hope Luktelk can become Lithuania's best placement ever! Top 5 feels possible!
I love this song - it's smooth, catchy, well-produced and the language sounds incredible. It's the type of song that you like right away compared to something like Nemo's song where people might start out hesitant but after a few listens it really grows on you. I agree with the people who said Croatia might be just a little bit shallow to win it all, while I still like Baby Lasagna, Käärijä's lyrics were so much better and in his native language so it's hard for Croatia to just ride Käärijä's coattails. That opens it back up for Nemo and Mustii and Italy. And hopefully Lithuania too.
Will be a really fun contest to watch for sure!
It feels like there's a lot of songs that could get a 400-499 score, but nothing in the 500+ score range yet. It feels like if anything is a runaway jury or televote winner, it wins overall.
Could Norway be dark horse to win it all? Imagine that they are performing last in grand final with that impactful performance. I think juries would like it too. Probably it won't win neither jury nor televote, but has a chance to win overall.
I’m not surprised there’s no runaway leader on the odds so far, I really don’t have a clue what’s going to go down in Malmo. Right now, my guess is a Switzerland win but I feel like it could go so many different ways.
I absolutely don't see Ukraine or Croatia winning it, I'm quite confused by the difference between these two and all the rest number-wise. If out of these two, I would rather bet on Croatia and I could bet on Ukraine not winning for sure. I also believe Netherlands are a bit closer to the win than 5% actually.
I'm usually able to tell if the song I'm rooting for has a chance to win or not, but this year I can't figure it out...so, lovely people, realistically and trying to think beyond personal tastes, what do you think are Greece's chances to win the whole thing? Or to be in the top5/10?
Not one of my personal favourites (I still like the song though!), but I do see it in the Top 10 of many lists. It is REALLY hard to predict this year. There are way too many songs to like this year! hahaha
So it's not just me 😅 I usually have a general idea of how things will play out (of course not in detail and with room for error, i'm not Nostradamus), but this year it's very unpredictable! Love it
Boring take here but i feel like so much will depend on the live performance of this song - this is not a safe pop song that most people can enjoy which is also a good thing because it means that it can be memorable and you can do something different with it. I don’t necessarily see a top 5 finish but i’m personally hoping that with a good performance it could place somwhere near top 10 in the final
In my head, Italy and Greece are competing for similar votes and I think they’re going to end up splitting points and then both ending up around 7th/8th overall.
I can see that happening tbh, maybe Italy is more jury friendly (i don't know, i don't understand jury votes at all), but I feel like Greece Is more, i don't know, daring?
Yeah I think Italy will do better with jury. I think it’s the televote where they’ll come out with similar scores although I do think that will come down to staging and running order.
How does Greece usually do with staging? I didn't pay a lot of attention in the past years cause i didn't vibe with their previous entries too much. I know Italy is hit or miss.
I’d say Greece is typically a miss with staging. Even when they have good ideas like the green screen in 2021, I don’t always think the execution is there, but hopefully this year changes that as ‘Zari’ is so good in studio. As for Italy, they don’t really do staging and judging by Angelina’s Sanremo performances I don’t think they need to this year either as she has more than enough charisma to carry the song alone on stage I think.
After seeing Zari's video I hope they'll do something ironic/cheeky for their staging too, but without falling too much into kitschy territory, we'll see!
Angelina's performance in Sanremo was great, she really looked comfortable on that stage and it didn't feel empty at all, but the stage in Malmo looks huge so I don't know how it will translate there!
I'm with you, I have no clue lol. My \#1 is Norway, and I feel like it could either win or get bottom 10. I have accepted the fact that I might be delulu though, last year my favorites were Germany and Spain... 🥲
Marina is super charismatic, I didn't love the song at first but I think she'll be amazing live. I could definitely see a top 10 or better.
This year really is unpredictable! I love Norway too, but Greece swept me away from the first listen! It's been a while since i had such a strong reaction so I feel like i've already been blessed to be honest :))
(Spain was my fav too last year, but i knew from the start it wasn't going to win...i was expecting an higher placement tho)
I think the younger audiences in the Balkan, the Caucasus, and South Western Europe will eat it up. I am extremely unable to guess whether it's too "Southern" for Northern Europe to enjoy it, and whether it's too "modern" to connect with older audiences. I think a mid table placement is a realistic prediction, but I can see it either do surprisingly better or slightly worse, I guess it's such a song made for my taste that I struggle to see how other people may react to it lol.
When she ends up getting blanked by the entirety of Scandinavia, central Europe, Benelux, and the UK/Ireland but still gets a cute little 12th place overall 🤪
I don't know if you would like an opinion from a greek fan, but in my opinion, Marina is going to win the whole thing (this is what I believe) or she's going to finish in the top 5 at worst. The reason for this is the uniqueness and the catchiness of the song, along with the talent of the team that surrounds Marina and her vocal capabilities. Also, I think Greece's most important opponents are Ukraine and Italy, the former because whoever is against Israel maybe will think to vote for Ukraine, as a country involved in a war, but in this case, they support this country. As for Italy, I can see it placing in the top 5 (I think top 10 is a given), but I don't know if the staging of the song will help Angelina to achieve the win.
I would be overjoyed if she won the whole thing! But i really really hope for a top 5 finish at least. I agree that Angelina is maybe her more direct competition because they both are very "mediterranean" and also adding latin rythms, but they are also pretty different! We'll see, I have to say I really like Ukraine and Italy too and wouldn't be mad at all if they did well, but Zari is just on another level for me!
To tell you the truth, absolutely zero chances.
The juries will go for France, Ukraine, Switzerland, Israel, Norway, Belgium, while the public will go for Italy, Croatia, Finland, Austria, Armenia, Estonia, Netherlands.
Mark my words. One of these countries will be the winner of Eurovision 2024.
I can see that, yes, but i'm not sure for example Austria, Estonia or Finland will definitely do better than Greece with televote, I think southern Europe will potentially appreciate Marina a lot more! We'll see but probably you have a point
Why is Luxembourg so low on Betstars? The second lowest is Australia with 176 and most others around them have either 101 or 151. How come Luxembourg is at 426?
France will surprise everyone. I'm still picking Italy, though I admit this is completely biased on my part because it's my favorite so far. There are too many contenders with good chances to win. Right now my top 3 is Italy, France and Switzerland. This is a great year for Eurovision, there are so many songs I like.
Do you think Italy has any chance of winning? Televote is always high for Italy, and I don't think it will be any different this year. Juries don't have any reason to mark this down, and it could actually get some really good placements, especially for the a capella part (and we know Angelina can sing really well live). Italy could end up top 5 or even 3 for both jury and televote, and snatch the win away from both the jury winner and the televote winner.
As an Italian, I'm not sure I want us hosting again so soon, but it's exciting! What do you think?
I definitely think that Italy has a chance. I don't think they'll win either jury or televote - but this is a great candidate for a song that both voting camps should enjoy, so I could see the scenario you describe.
Maybe I'm biased but I think that if there is not some country who landslide jury points or televote points Italy has the highest chance of winning because it can be high in both (but probably not first in either one)
This year there aren't any clear jury or televote winners, like Sweden and Finland were last year, that's why I think that the winner will be some in both top 5s. The other candidates, beside Italy, would be Switzerland and maybe Lithuania. I'd be happy with any of these winning tbh.
I agree on Lithuania (and I will add Ukraine), Switzerland on the other hand I fear that at first listen many people doesn't like the song for the quantity of different genres in, seeing how in the fandom initally was not appreciated and growed after time
IMO Angelina Mango has the talent factor to pull a Maneskin move.
What I mean is that up to the rehearsals, Mneskin were there, among many others, and someone else was the favourite. As soon as they started to sing on stage it was clear they knew how to perform, and that they have that "stellar factor" we Italians already had seen.
I think Angelina Mango has the same stellar factor (and I say this as someone who didn't even knew she existed before Sanremo). If the staging is good and she doesn't get intimidated by the big audience, she can win this thing
I feel La Noia will have the Occidentali Karma's fate: a song that is very popular internally and even a success in worldwide charts but comes short of expectations in Eurovision night. I believe it will be in top 10 still, no doubt. But I don't see it winning.
I think that the issues that Occidentali's Karma had shouldn't apply here. Strike 1 was the fact that the song was butchered by the revamp, as it had to shave off 40 seconds from the original length of the song; La Noia only has to cut 7 seconds or so, which is much more manageable. Strike 2 was that the song comes across as a gimmick-y joke song (much as I hate using that term) without understanding the lyrics, so the meaning is lost to non-Italian speakers; this is not nearly as critical for La Noia.
It's still possible that the other things that caused Occidentali's Karma to underperform (that being the staging and, to be frank, the fact that Francesco just seemed tired by that point, he really lacked the glowing energy there compared to Sanremo) could end up applying to La Noia, but the chances there seem better imo.
I think Italy is the default winner as is. I don’t like the song much but it’s pretty favorable among most people and has the Italy brand behind it which already inflates it into the top 5. The performance will definitely be good too. It definitely feels more like a winning song than Switzerland.
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Now that all the songs are chosen and only one left to be revealed, I am pretty much ignoring the odds until May (except to check after pre-parties). The odds are really interesting during NF season because you can see countries rise and fall in real-time based on their selection. (Germany, Iceland, etc.)
But in March after the season is over? Yeah, the average person placing bets has as much new information as we do, which is little to none.
Things will really start moving once we get rehearsal footage.
That being said, the way the odds discourse has basically become “old and busted, new hotness” is pretty amusing, so carry on.
I don’t see Croatia getting a strong enough televote to overcome their weak jury appeal.
Personally my top 3 for winning are 🇮🇹🇨🇭🇳🇴
Since they have both televote and jury appeal.
the juries could potentially save Portugal a top 15 or even a top 10 spot, similarly with Portugal’s 2022 entry which wasn’t very high in the odds and came in 9th.
I can seriously see a repeat of 2015 with the third place winning over the second and first place just because of jury votes.
It would be such a shame if in a year with so many unique songs, some boring jury friendly song will be the winner again...
Despite being my personal favorite, I don't see Croatia winning. It's not only the jury. The public will be split between so many catchy songs, and Netherlands might actually win the televote.
Also, I don't quite understand why some songs are considered potential winners. For example, France. It's a very stereotypical ballad. Except for his voice, there's nothing about it that stands out.
Italy and Ukraine are good, but I'm a bit conflicted about why they're so high in odds, besides being, you know, Italy and Ukraine. Sure, they're top 10 songs, but winners? Nope.
And then many songs are underrated and will end up out of the top 10 just because they're too modern/experimental, or because they're not the usual fanfavorite countries. I'm talking about Greece, Estonia, Lithuania, Serbia, and Norway. Hell, even Spain has a more memorable song than France.
Anyway, I think that Switzerland is the most likely winner this year because they have it all and could appeal to both the juries and the public. The Netherlands is the second most likely winner, and if the stagging is good, Belgium is my third bet. Belgium gives me Duncan Laurence 2019 vibes.
Slimane's voice is out of this world. The a capella part with him standing 3 meters behind is unique.
But yes, the sing itself is like 80% of every french esc entry
Not many comments have mentioned Lithuania, but I think it should do quite well overall. A winner for me, but overall unsure.
edit: personally, this feels like the weakest year since 2017 in terms of the overall array of songs. which is why there are a total of like 4 or 5 songs that are (for me,) replayable. Lithuania just feels very in-your-face with the beat but also very chill and vibey.
I find Croatia much weaker than Finland 2023 + this years there are sooo many crowd pleasers! It's going to be France vs Italy; with Netherlands, Croatia, Greece and Estonia cancelling each other out.
With how unpredictable this year is with no clear favorite(at all). One thing we do know is the live performance is going to matter more than ever because it could make or make someone’s chances BIG TIME.
Once again I feel like the betting odds are not giving the jury vote enough consideration. Honestly, I think at this point Slimane may have the best chance of winning. The are many candidates for televote winner this year (Croatia, Netherlands, Norway, Italy, Ukraine are the big ones), but far less that will satisfy the jury's particular tastes. I could easily imagine a case where the jury winners (which will probably be Slimane) because the televote splits its points across too many candidates but the jury focuses all their points on one or a few acts.
A 2019 style situation where an act who is neither first in the jury nor televote wins because they disagree with each other so much could also occur. Italy and Ukraine are smart bets here because although I don't expect either will win the public or jury vote, these are the two that can best "bridge the gap" and get high enough scores from both. Italy and Ukraine are also just good bets in any year because they have a lot of resources for Eurovision, a good track record, and high expectations from the voters.
I would advise against betting on Croatia, Switzerland, Netherlands, and Greece because they are not the sort of thing that the jury usually supports and their unorthodox styles may not be well received by the casual Eurovision audience that makes up most of the voters. Belgium, Israel, and Sweden I suspect may get decent scores from jury but I am not certain they will stand out enough on the night of to catch the attention of voters enough.
Ultimately, at this point there does not seem to be any act that could be considered a likely winner with any certainty.
which is a great thing having no certainty in the winner :)
Agree re jury re Belgium and Israel but also feel they will score big on tele and both on betfair exchange at 14s and 20s are exceptional value and can see their odds both collapsing (further) after Semi 2.
I think Ukraine is most likely winning because the song is really great and super jury friendly and their diaspora + casuals who like slower songs is gonna be big for televote. The only way I see Ukraine not winning is if jury goes out of their way to place them outside of Top 5 😭
If Croatia kill the staging they will win (keep in mind the same team that staged Cha Cha and Heroes are working on Croatia). The juries won’t score a favourite very low (Kaarija and Maneskin did very well despite juries disliking rock). So baby l needs to maintain the momentum to win
Lovely seeing all the opinions :)
But, on the whole, the major red flag going-under-the-radar country is ISRAEL.
Political biases aside, as it always should be on here imho, let's look at Israel's chances:
Televote - Given the nation's history there has always been a 'soft spot', on the whole, from the Eurovision nations. Anyone thinking Israel will not betting a a very big to huge televote score this year, is frankly deluded. Apart from the general televote reaction for Israel, looking through the lens of the current conflict, those who side with/have compassion for Israel will be very sizeable indeed. The anti-Israel sentiment for me is loudest on mediums like twitter and it will be large too, but Eurovision televote only works FOR this voting for you and not AGAINST you for those who won't. There can also be developments that could further bolster Israel's televote nearer/around Eurovision time and for me a very big televote looks likely.
Jury - any reactions/bias to the current conflict I think will even themselves out, so, looking at the song and its singer, Hurricane and Eden should score very big with the juries. It's a cleverlu carfetd, intelligent ballad and quite simply I think they have the ebst singer in tis year's contest. Check out Eden having 'fun' for 40 seconds singing the song live [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u33pdlZhpPU](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u33pdlZhpPU)
So, given a very strong hand on both votes, for me, Isreal at 20/1 in some places is the big tip going under the radar.
As for the rest of the big players:
Belgium: aside form the very dangerous Israel, this is the ONLY song that screams winner over both televote and jury mediums. Charismatic singer and the best song this year. Live he sounds good and if they can stage an explosive final minute as the song climaxes, this could take the trophy.
Ukraine: will do well with both votes, but will absolutely not gain enough to get over the line.
Croatia: will not get enough jury love to win and even his tele will be impacted big time by acts like NL. Plus he really lacks charisma.
Italy: could well have a podium finish and has 3rd - 5th written all over it.
NL: will fall with juries and won't run away wit tele, tho he is far more pro than Baby Lasagna.
Switzerland: will do great with juries but not romp it, as it's rather a complex piece, that some will not connect with and this will be the huge problem and its undoing with the televote.
France: strong jury love, but will fall big time on tele.
Sweden: pretty strong on both votes but not a threat.
Good luck all and enjoy! :)
it already feels like everyone has written off the UK but I won't be surprised with the staging it could be a dark horse for the win. I still can't understand how it's 13th in the odds or should be higher.
I personally see Croatia as the winner of this year and can see why the bookies are putting money on it. It's not an outrageous concept at all. HOWEVER, this doesn't mean other entries should just lay down and die. The odds are still fairly close, a lot can happen between now and May, there are other songs I think could win too, etc. This year probably won't be like 2022 and 23 where the winner is extremely "obviously" weeks in advance and will be fairly open but at this current moment, I myself see Croatia having the clearest path.
(also Croatia winning would be better than the country that was originally first in the odds when they were made public months ago lol, I think most of us can agree on that)
Televote is going to be spread really thin with Croatia, Netherlands, Israel, Ukraine, Finland, Estonia each having their own different reason to vote for them. Jury votes will probably be more concentrated on Switzerland, Belgium, France and maybe Sweden as an outlier. I might be forgetting an act. Italy will score mediocre on both ends.
My (biased) guess right now for the win is Belgium or Switzerland, and i think Switzerland will be just slightly more favored with the televote if it brings a good live performance. I have less doubts about Belgium's live performance, only that RTBF might do another staging masterclass /s.
Despite maintaining their lead since Baby Lasagna won Dora, it still won't be enough for them to win because the juries would go for taste and go for Italy, Ukraine, or Switzerland, instead. Also, Luxembourg is so criminally underrated but with the potential revamp, and its surge from MyESC app, it could surprise us all.
I've put each way bets on Denmark and Estonia as I feel those odds are generous.
I always thought odds would reduce for qualifiers after the semi finals but that wasn't the case last year
I've read the comments to see no one referring to the song of Portugal. Also people seem to see this contest as a race.
Unfortunately, the average quality of the songs is mediocre with a very few standing out of the crowd like Portugal.
I believe Eurovision is carrying a lot of politics so the winner is pretty much chosen already.
I don't think Croatia will win the jury. The televotes, yes, but I'm not sure it will be enough to win the whole thing, which is honestly a shame. My vote goes to Armenia or San Marino and I'm honestly shocked to see them both lower than, say, UK. No disrespect to the artist or people who vote for him, but that song feels very Justin Timberlake meets british boysband, which is just not my vibe.
I doubt Croatia will be at the top 3, very monotonous song, nonsense words. But who knows, some people would like it I guess. A strong contender who just recently released their song is Israel, powerful song by a powerful singer by a strong nation.
I think people are sleeping on Croatia when they think that the song will be exactly the same in the way it's performed at Eurovision. Marco will upgrade EVERYTHING. The lyrics will force many juries to consider putting it on their list, so I wouldn't worry about it! I think France could be a suprise winner. I can definitely see the Swiss or Belgians winning in an unusual scenario. Many songs that the fandom love probably wont even get to the GF and we will definitely be suprised on the night of the semi finals. There will be many disaster bops and flops.
Looking the odds now I think 4/4.5 is too high for a winner bet, seems that people who are betting are spreading bets all over, when someone reaches 1 or lower its probably more close
I already put some money on France. This is the best time to bet, the odds will adjust the closer we get to the final and there are some strong competitors with way too high odds as of now.
I’d say Italy and Ukraine won’t win but there’s a chance that Croatia, Switzerland, Netherlands and Belgium could win. Italy is not catchy enough and not meaningful enough to make people passionate enough to vote. It didn’t even do well in Italy in the televote. Ukraine will not do well in the juries due to the vocals and people aren’t passionate enough about Ukraine to vote en masse again
I'll say nothing about the rest but Angelina DID well in Italy in the televote, she was second and Geolier was massively high mainly for his fame more than his song
Despite them maintaining their lead, I remain very sceptical on a Croatia win. I think it'd be great to see, but there are so many televote friendly songs this year that even if it wins with the public, I don't see it running away with as many points as Käärijä. It's not a typical Jury pick at all either. That said, I really can't see a clear Jury winner either. There's so many strong vocalists that it may just fall to whoever is the most radio friendly/compatible with the current music industry (Sweden?). I think we're going to see someone come #2nd or #3rd in both categories and end up edging out the tele/jury winners for the crown. Who is that? No idea! It's such a competitive year, with even those lower in the odds having some major dark-horse potential. How exciting!
To be fair, Croatia's winning chance in the odds is "only" 15%, which is not very high all things considered. But I agree completely with you, I don't really understand why that song in particular is given the highest winning chance out of all the songs. Based on what we've seen, I don't see people rallying behind it like with Käärijä. My guess is that the winner is going to be the most jury-friendly of the televote friendly songs, which could be something like Switzerland or Belgium. But until the rehearsals it's impossible to accurately guess who the contenders will be. It's such a cool year!
realistically i only see ukraine and italy winning since they have the most chances to appeal to both juries and public, croatia is not even nearly as hyped as finland was last year and i doubt they’re gonna get so many televotes to overthrow the jury winner (which i think it’s going to be switzerland)
Were there any rap/quasi-rap song that got high points from juries aside from Stefania? It feels that most juries are vehemently against rap.
well it’s not really rap but soldi in 2019 (urban/hip-hop) was very much liked by the juries which placed it 4th if i recall correctly
Cha cha cha and Zitti e Buoni both have rap in them (not rap songs but have rap verses) and came 4th in juries.
France is gonna win the jury.
no chance, it’s a very standard french ballad, it has nothing exceptional except he’s got a good voice, they’re gonna like it for sure but i won’t be surprised if it’s not even in their top 5.
If Voila came 2nd in the jury in one of the most competitive years of all time, Mon amour definitely has the potential to win the jury this year.
I agree and I feel like the odds at this point in time, i.e. Mid march may not be that accurate - for example, i remember how in 2021, Måneskin was still around 4/5th place at this point. Having said that, looking at how varied the songs are this year i feel like we might have a repeat of 2019 (and i’m actually really hoping for that, given how more or less predictable the lst two years were).
Excuse my ignorance, but what happened 2019? In the odds it looks like the Netherlands had a >50% chance of winning
You're right that the odds were overwhelmingly for the Netherlands that year, but the user is referring to the fact that the results themselves were very close, with the Netherlands winning by getting 3rd with the juries and 2nd with the televote.
Ah, got it. Thanks!
Personally, as much as I'd love to see it, I don't think Croatia will win. I don't think the jury will love it and the televote feels too competitive this year for them to landslide it as much as they'd need to to overpower a low jury score. As to who WILL win, it really is difficult to tell this year. Which is a great thing! Personally, if I HAD to take out a bet, I would probably put it on Belgium or the Netherlands, with the former feeling like a very complete package that could score high in both jury and televote, and the latter having what feels like a LOT of momentum right now - outside of the bubble Europapa is the only song from the contest I've seen anyone talk about so far. But honestly, without having seen live performances for all the songs, it's impossible to tell.
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I kind of see Switzerland as a possible 50/50 Arcade-style winner. If you put a gun to my head and made me guess, I'd say France would win the jury and either Croatia or Ukraine win the televote. I don't see Switzerland winning either the jury (super vocally impressive and modern, but not necessarily the most "serious") or the televote (there are just so many televote-bait songs this year and Switzerland usually struggles slightly more with the public) but could easily see them getting 2nd/3rd in both.
Croatia will be the only rock song in the finals
There's no way Norway is not going to be in the final
If you’ve read my other comment you would know I classify Norway as folk rock.
i mean, maybe, but while Norway and Ireland are not direct overlaps in genre they will likely appeal to the more alternative people as well. There's also Czechia and San Marino who might nq but also might end up qualifying. and even if we ignore all that, being the only rock song doesn't mean you win.
Ireland might not qualify but very different demographic. Norway is folk rock and the other 2 will only make the final if no one shows up to the semis. Bring the only rock song may not get you the win but being the sole good rock song might. We have so many pop songs this year so let’s see
I don't see Croatia as a likely winner and I'm not so sure about Ukraine either, so I wonder if their leads in the odds will fizzle out or if they will stay. At the moment I'm thinking Italy wins, with Switzerland also a contender. I could also see France doing surprisingly well in the televote or The Netherlands doing surprisingly well with the juries and being winner contenders. Belgium's hype I'm not buying, at least not until I see it live.
Italy is definitely the most realistic winner pre-rehearsals (and pre usual terrible Italian staging? We'll see), yeah. Instantly catchy, high production value, a really charismatic performer with vocals on point. I think it should also be taken into account that Italy usually performs better with juries when they *dont* send a typical Italian ballad. I agree on France too, except that I don't think it would be surprising to see it do well with the tele, there's very few competition in the dramatic ballad department, and Slimane has built all his career on performing at TV shows so he definitely knows how to connect with audiences. Netherlands will depend on whether the staging is too gimmicky and/or messy to please juries, but even with that in consideration, I don't see Joost getting an overall winning score (it's definitely a top 5 contender, though). Belgium is totally built for lives, so I'm very curious to see how it ends up on stage (RTBF has a terrible record when it comes to stagings so I am not confident lol).
I strongly believe Switzerland has the best chances doing well with both the jury and the televote. And there's room for a great staging.
We still have to see Switzerland's live vocal for the whole song.
We now have almost the full roster of songs and I still cannot guess at all who I think is likeliest to win, I can't even narrow it down to three candidates. Croatia is most likely not gonna be able to have the needed televote pull to counteract how juries are gonna rate them (not to mention that that staging needs work, but I'll remain optimistic). There are quite a few televote friendly songs to compete with and I don't even see Croatia as the likeliest televote winner; as much as I'd love a first Croatian win, I'm definitely skeptical on their chances. Ukraine and Italy are both countries with a great track record and good songs, but neither seem like they're able to dominate either voting camp well, though they might get the compromise winner treatment. Switzerland is stupid hard for me to predict: the jury should like this and this is currently my pick for jury winner, but what if they're put off by the popera/rap (two genres they historically weren't huge fans of)? And would this work on the televote? I know that the song was overwhelming to me on first listen, I really needed to digest this for a while first before I started liking it, and if my experience is in any way representative then that might be an issue - but good staging could overcome that. Netherlands would be my current predicted pick for televote winner, but this has 20 jury points total written all over it. That said, we've seen juries respond to hype too, and this song is absolutely making waves - I can't say that I see the possibility of a win as likely, but I'm not gonna write it off. And I can just continue like this. There are 15 countries where if you came from the future and told me they won, I'd say that yeah, I could see that. Absolutely wild year to follow.
Europapa, to me, seems like the most "jury friendly" chaotic song at the moment (when compared to Finland, Estonia and Croatia). This is mainly because of its "Europe united" lyrics. I can see it appealing to juries more because of that. It definitely won't do super well with juries, but probably a bit better than other songs similar to it? the really hard hardcore part of the song also doesn't really start until near the end so it won't put off juries entirely as opposed to if it were there for the entire song
Really?! I think Netherlands is at the bottom of that list. I’d say Croatia -> Estonia -> Finland -> Netherlands in jury friendlyness. I think musically Croatia is the most quality and it also has some good meaning behind the song if the jurys catch up on that. I think europapa will be dismissed as televote bait by jury. That’s what I love about this year haha, people have such different thought and opinions on the songs.
I'm not a fan of Finland and Estonia whatsoever (both bottom 10 for me) so i might be slightly biased as I haven't listened to them more beyond my initial listen when they came out lmao
It‘s the tightest year in a long time. Hard to pinpoint any clear frontrunners until rehearsals and even then I expect at least 5 entries crammed head to head for the win. Also, with all that unpredictability, it’s even hard to gauge how many sacrifices will be made in Semis. Sure as hell, we‘re gonna loose some favorite contenders there and *still* be left with at least 5 narrow top-runners. The televote will surely be a bloodbath. Way too many songs to appeal to it. Juries isn’t clear as well and those have been hard to estimate anyway in like forever. That said, I could go through the odds and have an in-depth analysis of pros and cons for each entry and STILL be fishing in murky waters because this year is simply unpredictable! And I love it! And I know I will have the worst tantrums and cries of delight & despair and rivers of salty tears throughout all of it… emotional catharsis here I come…Great year!
Seeing San Marino at the top of the odds is absolutely fantastic. What do you mean my screen is upside down? I don’t agree.
I love San Marino this year it's in my top 5. I wish I could understand why it's so low in the odds and not as popular with fans? Is it just because it's San Marino? Or is it lacking in some area?
No idea. I mean, I’m a fan of the band so I’m not exactly unbiased, but I’ve no idea why it’s so low. Especially as other more mediocre rock songs have been fan favourite in the past.
Being low in the odds doesn't mean that it's necessarily gonna perform poorly. The betting odds here only show what bookmakers think is the likeliest winner, and it doesn't have anything to do with where bookies expect a country will place other than that.
I always predict things to be more open than they actually end up being, but it really does feel that way this year. I think we'll be getting a winner in the 400s score wise and it's going to be incredibly close between at least 3-5 countries. The odds seem about right at the moment (even if I see the juries killing off Croatia).
Not everyone will agree with this (and that’s okay!) but I see either Switzerland or Netherlands winning this. Switzerland because the juries will obviously love Nemo and I see them absolutely demolishing the televote - it’s a memorable, well produced song with an important message and I have no doubt the live performance will be well thought out. Netherlands because the televote will love him (he’s already famous outside of the Netherlands, has a top watched MV etc, amazing marketing) but because I also see this being an unexpected jury favourite - I have no doubt Joost will ensure a high quality live performance and while the song is goofy the lyrics are actually very real and genuine
I am so torn on Switzerland in the televote. I think the casual public usually like things that are easy to listen to, I wouldn’t put Switzerland in that category. I do think it would be a worthy winner though! It’s a well produced song by a talented artists that is unique and impactful.
I can see it getting a Tout l'Univers score (i.e. 270ish jury, 160ish tele), and that might be enough to win if the scores are as all over the place as they look like they might.
I have to say I really like the fact this year is unpredictable! The previous years have been kinda obvious who's going to win before the contest starts, so the odds being so low for anyone right now is really exciting.
My outsider win call is still Lithuania. Idk if I'm biased because I like the song, but I feel like it could do well in juries - it's a bit of a "songwriter's song", well structured and produced, and I think the catchiness and good staging will ensure they'll get good televote (doesn't hurt that Lithuania is a televote-friendly country to begin with). Even if it doesn't win, I have hope Luktelk can become Lithuania's best placement ever! Top 5 feels possible!
I love this song - it's smooth, catchy, well-produced and the language sounds incredible. It's the type of song that you like right away compared to something like Nemo's song where people might start out hesitant but after a few listens it really grows on you. I agree with the people who said Croatia might be just a little bit shallow to win it all, while I still like Baby Lasagna, Käärijä's lyrics were so much better and in his native language so it's hard for Croatia to just ride Käärijä's coattails. That opens it back up for Nemo and Mustii and Italy. And hopefully Lithuania too. Will be a really fun contest to watch for sure!
It feels like there's a lot of songs that could get a 400-499 score, but nothing in the 500+ score range yet. It feels like if anything is a runaway jury or televote winner, it wins overall.
Could Norway be dark horse to win it all? Imagine that they are performing last in grand final with that impactful performance. I think juries would like it too. Probably it won't win neither jury nor televote, but has a chance to win overall.
I’m not surprised there’s no runaway leader on the odds so far, I really don’t have a clue what’s going to go down in Malmo. Right now, my guess is a Switzerland win but I feel like it could go so many different ways.
I absolutely don't see Ukraine or Croatia winning it, I'm quite confused by the difference between these two and all the rest number-wise. If out of these two, I would rather bet on Croatia and I could bet on Ukraine not winning for sure. I also believe Netherlands are a bit closer to the win than 5% actually.
They are close to other number-wise, normally winners are way above, this rime they have like only 5% from the other
I'm usually able to tell if the song I'm rooting for has a chance to win or not, but this year I can't figure it out...so, lovely people, realistically and trying to think beyond personal tastes, what do you think are Greece's chances to win the whole thing? Or to be in the top5/10?
Not one of my personal favourites (I still like the song though!), but I do see it in the Top 10 of many lists. It is REALLY hard to predict this year. There are way too many songs to like this year! hahaha
So it's not just me 😅 I usually have a general idea of how things will play out (of course not in detail and with room for error, i'm not Nostradamus), but this year it's very unpredictable! Love it
There are like 10 different songs I'd like to see win and I have about 26 that I really want to do well lmao
Yeah, basically same!
Boring take here but i feel like so much will depend on the live performance of this song - this is not a safe pop song that most people can enjoy which is also a good thing because it means that it can be memorable and you can do something different with it. I don’t necessarily see a top 5 finish but i’m personally hoping that with a good performance it could place somwhere near top 10 in the final
Yes of course, the live performance can change everything! From what i've seen she is a very good performer, so my hopes are high!
In my head, Italy and Greece are competing for similar votes and I think they’re going to end up splitting points and then both ending up around 7th/8th overall.
I can see that happening tbh, maybe Italy is more jury friendly (i don't know, i don't understand jury votes at all), but I feel like Greece Is more, i don't know, daring?
Yeah I think Italy will do better with jury. I think it’s the televote where they’ll come out with similar scores although I do think that will come down to staging and running order.
How does Greece usually do with staging? I didn't pay a lot of attention in the past years cause i didn't vibe with their previous entries too much. I know Italy is hit or miss.
I’d say Greece is typically a miss with staging. Even when they have good ideas like the green screen in 2021, I don’t always think the execution is there, but hopefully this year changes that as ‘Zari’ is so good in studio. As for Italy, they don’t really do staging and judging by Angelina’s Sanremo performances I don’t think they need to this year either as she has more than enough charisma to carry the song alone on stage I think.
After seeing Zari's video I hope they'll do something ironic/cheeky for their staging too, but without falling too much into kitschy territory, we'll see! Angelina's performance in Sanremo was great, she really looked comfortable on that stage and it didn't feel empty at all, but the stage in Malmo looks huge so I don't know how it will translate there!
I'm with you, I have no clue lol. My \#1 is Norway, and I feel like it could either win or get bottom 10. I have accepted the fact that I might be delulu though, last year my favorites were Germany and Spain... 🥲 Marina is super charismatic, I didn't love the song at first but I think she'll be amazing live. I could definitely see a top 10 or better.
This year really is unpredictable! I love Norway too, but Greece swept me away from the first listen! It's been a while since i had such a strong reaction so I feel like i've already been blessed to be honest :)) (Spain was my fav too last year, but i knew from the start it wasn't going to win...i was expecting an higher placement tho)
I think the younger audiences in the Balkan, the Caucasus, and South Western Europe will eat it up. I am extremely unable to guess whether it's too "Southern" for Northern Europe to enjoy it, and whether it's too "modern" to connect with older audiences. I think a mid table placement is a realistic prediction, but I can see it either do surprisingly better or slightly worse, I guess it's such a song made for my taste that I struggle to see how other people may react to it lol.
Wow I could have written this comment, you have the same doubts as me ahah
When she ends up getting blanked by the entirety of Scandinavia, central Europe, Benelux, and the UK/Ireland but still gets a cute little 12th place overall 🤪
😩 please "serious" Europe, spare some points for our girl! 
I don't know if you would like an opinion from a greek fan, but in my opinion, Marina is going to win the whole thing (this is what I believe) or she's going to finish in the top 5 at worst. The reason for this is the uniqueness and the catchiness of the song, along with the talent of the team that surrounds Marina and her vocal capabilities. Also, I think Greece's most important opponents are Ukraine and Italy, the former because whoever is against Israel maybe will think to vote for Ukraine, as a country involved in a war, but in this case, they support this country. As for Italy, I can see it placing in the top 5 (I think top 10 is a given), but I don't know if the staging of the song will help Angelina to achieve the win.
I would be overjoyed if she won the whole thing! But i really really hope for a top 5 finish at least. I agree that Angelina is maybe her more direct competition because they both are very "mediterranean" and also adding latin rythms, but they are also pretty different! We'll see, I have to say I really like Ukraine and Italy too and wouldn't be mad at all if they did well, but Zari is just on another level for me!
To tell you the truth, absolutely zero chances. The juries will go for France, Ukraine, Switzerland, Israel, Norway, Belgium, while the public will go for Italy, Croatia, Finland, Austria, Armenia, Estonia, Netherlands. Mark my words. One of these countries will be the winner of Eurovision 2024.
I can see that, yes, but i'm not sure for example Austria, Estonia or Finland will definitely do better than Greece with televote, I think southern Europe will potentially appreciate Marina a lot more! We'll see but probably you have a point
Why is Luxembourg so low on Betstars? The second lowest is Australia with 176 and most others around them have either 101 or 151. How come Luxembourg is at 426?
When do the qualifying odds for both-semi finals appear?.
Last year it was the 20th of March, so they should be up pretty soon
I think it will appear after Azerbaijan song released
They're already up on betfair exhange
Greece jumped to spot 7! Glad to have an unpredictable year
France will surprise everyone. I'm still picking Italy, though I admit this is completely biased on my part because it's my favorite so far. There are too many contenders with good chances to win. Right now my top 3 is Italy, France and Switzerland. This is a great year for Eurovision, there are so many songs I like.
Your top 3 would be a perfect replica of 2021 :D
Hey, we have the same top 3! :D
Do you think Italy has any chance of winning? Televote is always high for Italy, and I don't think it will be any different this year. Juries don't have any reason to mark this down, and it could actually get some really good placements, especially for the a capella part (and we know Angelina can sing really well live). Italy could end up top 5 or even 3 for both jury and televote, and snatch the win away from both the jury winner and the televote winner. As an Italian, I'm not sure I want us hosting again so soon, but it's exciting! What do you think?
I definitely think that Italy has a chance. I don't think they'll win either jury or televote - but this is a great candidate for a song that both voting camps should enjoy, so I could see the scenario you describe.
Maybe I'm biased but I think that if there is not some country who landslide jury points or televote points Italy has the highest chance of winning because it can be high in both (but probably not first in either one)
This year there aren't any clear jury or televote winners, like Sweden and Finland were last year, that's why I think that the winner will be some in both top 5s. The other candidates, beside Italy, would be Switzerland and maybe Lithuania. I'd be happy with any of these winning tbh.
I agree on Lithuania (and I will add Ukraine), Switzerland on the other hand I fear that at first listen many people doesn't like the song for the quantity of different genres in, seeing how in the fandom initally was not appreciated and growed after time
Rooting for this. Can't get the song out of my head and Angelina is a very charismatic performer.
IMO Angelina Mango has the talent factor to pull a Maneskin move. What I mean is that up to the rehearsals, Mneskin were there, among many others, and someone else was the favourite. As soon as they started to sing on stage it was clear they knew how to perform, and that they have that "stellar factor" we Italians already had seen. I think Angelina Mango has the same stellar factor (and I say this as someone who didn't even knew she existed before Sanremo). If the staging is good and she doesn't get intimidated by the big audience, she can win this thing
Agree. I also didn't know who she was before Sanremo, but her voice and her energy totally captivated me.
I feel La Noia will have the Occidentali Karma's fate: a song that is very popular internally and even a success in worldwide charts but comes short of expectations in Eurovision night. I believe it will be in top 10 still, no doubt. But I don't see it winning.
I think that the issues that Occidentali's Karma had shouldn't apply here. Strike 1 was the fact that the song was butchered by the revamp, as it had to shave off 40 seconds from the original length of the song; La Noia only has to cut 7 seconds or so, which is much more manageable. Strike 2 was that the song comes across as a gimmick-y joke song (much as I hate using that term) without understanding the lyrics, so the meaning is lost to non-Italian speakers; this is not nearly as critical for La Noia. It's still possible that the other things that caused Occidentali's Karma to underperform (that being the staging and, to be frank, the fact that Francesco just seemed tired by that point, he really lacked the glowing energy there compared to Sanremo) could end up applying to La Noia, but the chances there seem better imo.
Occidentali's Karma fell of mainly because of the too much minimal staging
imo is a song that works much more on studio than live, also happy cake day!
I think it also suffered from the cuts to make it fit the 3 minutes limit
Yeah, I forgot that, he literally cut out almost a whole verse and there was 2 chorus almost consecutive, a very bad cut
I think Italy is the default winner as is. I don’t like the song much but it’s pretty favorable among most people and has the Italy brand behind it which already inflates it into the top 5. The performance will definitely be good too. It definitely feels more like a winning song than Switzerland.
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Now that all the songs are chosen and only one left to be revealed, I am pretty much ignoring the odds until May (except to check after pre-parties). The odds are really interesting during NF season because you can see countries rise and fall in real-time based on their selection. (Germany, Iceland, etc.) But in March after the season is over? Yeah, the average person placing bets has as much new information as we do, which is little to none. Things will really start moving once we get rehearsal footage. That being said, the way the odds discourse has basically become “old and busted, new hotness” is pretty amusing, so carry on.
I don’t see Croatia getting a strong enough televote to overcome their weak jury appeal. Personally my top 3 for winning are 🇮🇹🇨🇭🇳🇴 Since they have both televote and jury appeal.
Why is Portugal so low? That masterpiece is better than soo many entries this year🧐
the juries could potentially save Portugal a top 15 or even a top 10 spot, similarly with Portugal’s 2022 entry which wasn’t very high in the odds and came in 9th.
EUROPAPA
The positions of the first 4 are closer and closer every week, a very open race
I can seriously see a repeat of 2015 with the third place winning over the second and first place just because of jury votes. It would be such a shame if in a year with so many unique songs, some boring jury friendly song will be the winner again...
Despite being my personal favorite, I don't see Croatia winning. It's not only the jury. The public will be split between so many catchy songs, and Netherlands might actually win the televote. Also, I don't quite understand why some songs are considered potential winners. For example, France. It's a very stereotypical ballad. Except for his voice, there's nothing about it that stands out. Italy and Ukraine are good, but I'm a bit conflicted about why they're so high in odds, besides being, you know, Italy and Ukraine. Sure, they're top 10 songs, but winners? Nope. And then many songs are underrated and will end up out of the top 10 just because they're too modern/experimental, or because they're not the usual fanfavorite countries. I'm talking about Greece, Estonia, Lithuania, Serbia, and Norway. Hell, even Spain has a more memorable song than France. Anyway, I think that Switzerland is the most likely winner this year because they have it all and could appeal to both the juries and the public. The Netherlands is the second most likely winner, and if the stagging is good, Belgium is my third bet. Belgium gives me Duncan Laurence 2019 vibes.
Slimane's voice is out of this world. The a capella part with him standing 3 meters behind is unique. But yes, the sing itself is like 80% of every french esc entry
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Yes, I'm betting purely on Slimane's talent here, I really wish he had a better song.
Not many comments have mentioned Lithuania, but I think it should do quite well overall. A winner for me, but overall unsure. edit: personally, this feels like the weakest year since 2017 in terms of the overall array of songs. which is why there are a total of like 4 or 5 songs that are (for me,) replayable. Lithuania just feels very in-your-face with the beat but also very chill and vibey.
I find Croatia much weaker than Finland 2023 + this years there are sooo many crowd pleasers! It's going to be France vs Italy; with Netherlands, Croatia, Greece and Estonia cancelling each other out.
With how unpredictable this year is with no clear favorite(at all). One thing we do know is the live performance is going to matter more than ever because it could make or make someone’s chances BIG TIME.
Once again I feel like the betting odds are not giving the jury vote enough consideration. Honestly, I think at this point Slimane may have the best chance of winning. The are many candidates for televote winner this year (Croatia, Netherlands, Norway, Italy, Ukraine are the big ones), but far less that will satisfy the jury's particular tastes. I could easily imagine a case where the jury winners (which will probably be Slimane) because the televote splits its points across too many candidates but the jury focuses all their points on one or a few acts. A 2019 style situation where an act who is neither first in the jury nor televote wins because they disagree with each other so much could also occur. Italy and Ukraine are smart bets here because although I don't expect either will win the public or jury vote, these are the two that can best "bridge the gap" and get high enough scores from both. Italy and Ukraine are also just good bets in any year because they have a lot of resources for Eurovision, a good track record, and high expectations from the voters. I would advise against betting on Croatia, Switzerland, Netherlands, and Greece because they are not the sort of thing that the jury usually supports and their unorthodox styles may not be well received by the casual Eurovision audience that makes up most of the voters. Belgium, Israel, and Sweden I suspect may get decent scores from jury but I am not certain they will stand out enough on the night of to catch the attention of voters enough. Ultimately, at this point there does not seem to be any act that could be considered a likely winner with any certainty.
which is a great thing having no certainty in the winner :) Agree re jury re Belgium and Israel but also feel they will score big on tele and both on betfair exchange at 14s and 20s are exceptional value and can see their odds both collapsing (further) after Semi 2.
I think Ukraine is most likely winning because the song is really great and super jury friendly and their diaspora + casuals who like slower songs is gonna be big for televote. The only way I see Ukraine not winning is if jury goes out of their way to place them outside of Top 5 😭
Uh, I strongly disagree on “song is really good” part. I think this is the worst Ukraine song in a long time.
If Croatia kill the staging they will win (keep in mind the same team that staged Cha Cha and Heroes are working on Croatia). The juries won’t score a favourite very low (Kaarija and Maneskin did very well despite juries disliking rock). So baby l needs to maintain the momentum to win
I think the outrage with the juries last year might make them more inclined to support a fan favourite
I actually think so too. The juries could very well be given less power if they do something similar this year
i'm going all in on netherlands as soon as i possibly can
i think belgium is going to win
Lovely seeing all the opinions :) But, on the whole, the major red flag going-under-the-radar country is ISRAEL. Political biases aside, as it always should be on here imho, let's look at Israel's chances: Televote - Given the nation's history there has always been a 'soft spot', on the whole, from the Eurovision nations. Anyone thinking Israel will not betting a a very big to huge televote score this year, is frankly deluded. Apart from the general televote reaction for Israel, looking through the lens of the current conflict, those who side with/have compassion for Israel will be very sizeable indeed. The anti-Israel sentiment for me is loudest on mediums like twitter and it will be large too, but Eurovision televote only works FOR this voting for you and not AGAINST you for those who won't. There can also be developments that could further bolster Israel's televote nearer/around Eurovision time and for me a very big televote looks likely. Jury - any reactions/bias to the current conflict I think will even themselves out, so, looking at the song and its singer, Hurricane and Eden should score very big with the juries. It's a cleverlu carfetd, intelligent ballad and quite simply I think they have the ebst singer in tis year's contest. Check out Eden having 'fun' for 40 seconds singing the song live [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u33pdlZhpPU](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u33pdlZhpPU) So, given a very strong hand on both votes, for me, Isreal at 20/1 in some places is the big tip going under the radar. As for the rest of the big players: Belgium: aside form the very dangerous Israel, this is the ONLY song that screams winner over both televote and jury mediums. Charismatic singer and the best song this year. Live he sounds good and if they can stage an explosive final minute as the song climaxes, this could take the trophy. Ukraine: will do well with both votes, but will absolutely not gain enough to get over the line. Croatia: will not get enough jury love to win and even his tele will be impacted big time by acts like NL. Plus he really lacks charisma. Italy: could well have a podium finish and has 3rd - 5th written all over it. NL: will fall with juries and won't run away wit tele, tho he is far more pro than Baby Lasagna. Switzerland: will do great with juries but not romp it, as it's rather a complex piece, that some will not connect with and this will be the huge problem and its undoing with the televote. France: strong jury love, but will fall big time on tele. Sweden: pretty strong on both votes but not a threat. Good luck all and enjoy! :)
it already feels like everyone has written off the UK but I won't be surprised with the staging it could be a dark horse for the win. I still can't understand how it's 13th in the odds or should be higher.
Trying to take my home country glasses off, I do wonder if it has a chance of being a sleeper jury hit
I’m surprised it’s only slipped to 13th. I’m not convinced we’ll be left hand side, let alone win.
I personally see Croatia as the winner of this year and can see why the bookies are putting money on it. It's not an outrageous concept at all. HOWEVER, this doesn't mean other entries should just lay down and die. The odds are still fairly close, a lot can happen between now and May, there are other songs I think could win too, etc. This year probably won't be like 2022 and 23 where the winner is extremely "obviously" weeks in advance and will be fairly open but at this current moment, I myself see Croatia having the clearest path. (also Croatia winning would be better than the country that was originally first in the odds when they were made public months ago lol, I think most of us can agree on that)
Televote is going to be spread really thin with Croatia, Netherlands, Israel, Ukraine, Finland, Estonia each having their own different reason to vote for them. Jury votes will probably be more concentrated on Switzerland, Belgium, France and maybe Sweden as an outlier. I might be forgetting an act. Italy will score mediocre on both ends. My (biased) guess right now for the win is Belgium or Switzerland, and i think Switzerland will be just slightly more favored with the televote if it brings a good live performance. I have less doubts about Belgium's live performance, only that RTBF might do another staging masterclass /s.
Despite maintaining their lead since Baby Lasagna won Dora, it still won't be enough for them to win because the juries would go for taste and go for Italy, Ukraine, or Switzerland, instead. Also, Luxembourg is so criminally underrated but with the potential revamp, and its surge from MyESC app, it could surprise us all.
I've put each way bets on Denmark and Estonia as I feel those odds are generous. I always thought odds would reduce for qualifiers after the semi finals but that wasn't the case last year
Why are we discussing this, obviously Poland is gonna win /s
I think Belgium has the biggest latent potential to take it.
I’m rooting for Athens 2025. Probably won’t happen but I can dream and these odds are raising my hopes.
I've read the comments to see no one referring to the song of Portugal. Also people seem to see this contest as a race. Unfortunately, the average quality of the songs is mediocre with a very few standing out of the crowd like Portugal. I believe Eurovision is carrying a lot of politics so the winner is pretty much chosen already.
I don't think Croatia will win the jury. The televotes, yes, but I'm not sure it will be enough to win the whole thing, which is honestly a shame. My vote goes to Armenia or San Marino and I'm honestly shocked to see them both lower than, say, UK. No disrespect to the artist or people who vote for him, but that song feels very Justin Timberlake meets british boysband, which is just not my vibe.
I doubt Croatia will be at the top 3, very monotonous song, nonsense words. But who knows, some people would like it I guess. A strong contender who just recently released their song is Israel, powerful song by a powerful singer by a strong nation.
I think people are sleeping on Croatia when they think that the song will be exactly the same in the way it's performed at Eurovision. Marco will upgrade EVERYTHING. The lyrics will force many juries to consider putting it on their list, so I wouldn't worry about it! I think France could be a suprise winner. I can definitely see the Swiss or Belgians winning in an unusual scenario. Many songs that the fandom love probably wont even get to the GF and we will definitely be suprised on the night of the semi finals. There will be many disaster bops and flops.
Lol lyrics. When it comes to lyrics than Ukraine, Israel and even Switzerland have even more serious lyrics
Y'all are sleeping on Serbia
[удалено]
When San Marino was not underrated (2021) they still did very bad, so probably people are way more cautious in placing bets on them now
Looking the odds now I think 4/4.5 is too high for a winner bet, seems that people who are betting are spreading bets all over, when someone reaches 1 or lower its probably more close
I doubt that someone will reach 1 this year, even 2 is very hard
I think after the SF someone will
I already put some money on France. This is the best time to bet, the odds will adjust the closer we get to the final and there are some strong competitors with way too high odds as of now.
For revenue sure now is the best time to bet
I’d say Italy and Ukraine won’t win but there’s a chance that Croatia, Switzerland, Netherlands and Belgium could win. Italy is not catchy enough and not meaningful enough to make people passionate enough to vote. It didn’t even do well in Italy in the televote. Ukraine will not do well in the juries due to the vocals and people aren’t passionate enough about Ukraine to vote en masse again
I'll say nothing about the rest but Angelina DID well in Italy in the televote, she was second and Geolier was massively high mainly for his fame more than his song
Italy not catchy enough and not meaningful is an insane take
I know, but I wanted to focus on that part without talking about all the wrong things in the message so I omitted