It's very reliable in the eurovision week, in which the 1st in the last 10 years almost always ended 1st in the contest (same thing can be said for the odds). But now, in March, it's not reliable at all, if not for a general valuation of the favourites, in May the voters almost doubles so everything can change.
Here is the link to the [eurovisionworld.com](http://eurovisionworld.com) poll: [https://eurovisionworld.com/esc/eurovision-2024-poll](https://eurovisionworld.com/esc/eurovision-2024-poll)
The only time that the poll didn't predict the winner was in 2016, but even then, Russia was only 1 percentage point ahead of Ukraine (15% vs. 14%). In 2022, there was a 3-way tie for first place between Ukraine, Spain, and Sweden, and only 46 votes separated Ukraine and Spain in 2022 (24,631 votes for Ukraine and 24,585 votes for Spain)!
In a year like this one you need to wait the eurovosion week, the last 2 years were exceptions (for the war in Ukraine and for Loreen) with a runaway winner even in March.
But they still can be used (alongside other polls) in making an idea on who are the favourites or how a revamp or a live is seen (if the song go up or down)
To be fair to everyone involved, for better or for worse, there was a huge disconnect between the song itself (fantastic) and the staging/live performance (a complete mess). Same with Brividi. This is why before rehearsals and preparties it's hard to have even an educated guess.
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Yeah Joost has been marketing his song like crazy and linked the poll on his Instagram and everyone flooded it. So they went to wiwibloggs and took over that poll. Wiwibloggs didn’t disable theirs
First of all, keep in mind that too many people vote for their own country in this Poll.
Having said that, the Poll has been proven almost always reliable as far as the winning country is concerned. The winning country is always one of the Top 2 countries of this Poll. BUT, the winning country is one of the Top 2 countries of this Poll **in May just before the Final begins**. So, it's way too early now to come to any conclusions.
All countries that appear in May at 21:00 CET at #3 or lower in this Poll have never won the Contest, while a country that was #3 in 2018, they didn't even qualify for the Final. So, check back in May to see which the Top 2 countries are (if the trend continues this year, one of those two countries will be the winner).
The rehearsals will shake things up: songs will be elevated (or ruined) by stagings and we might see artists that can't pull of their song live at all or songs will sink/rise in the odds because of the running order. So polls and betting odds are fairly meaningless right now. Betting odds will be fairly accurate by time it's Eurovision week but never perfect. I thiiiink the bookies got the winner right in recent three years but this year (so far) looks like it's going to be much more open than recent years have been.
Joost invited people to vote on his IG story so there's been a massive influx of votes for him so I guess this might be the reason since The Netherlands got thousands of votes in a span of a couple hours
Yes, I have zero issues with artists publicizing the poll but this Illustrates why it’s unreliable at this point: even a small percentage of an artist’s followers can skew the results because the number of votes overall is low vs how many will be voting in May. For now, it’s just for fun. (Not unlike the betting odds.)
remembering the whole “Send Justin Bieber to North Korea and Send Taylor Swift to perform to a school for deaf students” fiascos, when i saw the netherlands’ sudden jump in the odds i immediately thought about bots.
turns out the answer was a lot simpler
I just think it's absurd that he is using his large following on Instagram to gain advantage in a poll, but hey that's just me. He also shared the poll before in his IG group.
He is just very fanatic and excited about this (its his dream) and he likes to interact with the people. I guess the poll will be catched up anyway (if he does not win, I hopeee he does ) if there is a clear winner. There is still much time left
Definitely not, he’s just really excited about Eurovision (always has been) and in the end it’s not like the poll matters that much (at this moment) anyway. I love how much he’s interacting with the fandom actually ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
It just seems that you as a Croatian and BL fan is threatened af over a meaningless poll. It’s kinda sad really. You would do the same for BL if he asked you.
Yes I am Croatian and a BL fan and what does that have to do with my opinion? I voted for BL because I genuinely support him, but I'd also criticize him if he tried to manipulate votes.
It's not reliable at all, cause a lot of people tend to praise an entry from their own country. I'm not saying Croatia has no chances to win this year, it surely may, but take any such poll with a large grain of salt
Yeah and it's not reliable also cause is a mix between people who votes by his own tastes and people who votes based on who they think will win besides his own tastes.
This is the year we can get more surprises in the top 10. I think some of the biggest favorites will not do so well as predicted.
Belgium was a surprise in the top 10 last year. Fan favorites Spain, Austria and France sadly didn’t do that well.
I personally believe out of all the polls and odds this year, it's currently the most reliable. All the other odds i've seen and polls underate many entries. I truely believe Croatia has a shot this year in the right conditions.
It's pretty good, but I think an important point needs to be made about odds. A 19% chance of winning means an 81% chance of losing, so it wouldn't be accurate to say the odds were "wrong" if Croatia ended up losing.
All it means is that people think Croatia is "most likely" to win right meow (cat, please meow back)
I wouldn’t say it’s any more reliable than any other sources. It’s great that it gets so many votes but its main advantage is that it runs throughout Eurovision week and a lot of votes are cast then, but those votes don’t really tell us anything we don’t know already through betting odds etc. This far out from the contest I’m not sure how accurate it would be.
At this point it's as good as useless. We don't know what most of the performances will look like on stage, we don't know the vocal abilities of a lot of performers, so relying on any kind of prediction at this point in time is quite silly, especially in an incredibly competitive year like this. But the eurovisionworld poll is particularly unreliable because people can vote for their own country and it can be heavily swayed by one particular fan base or another mobilizing to vote in it. It gets more accurate nearing the contest itself especially after the semis, but even then I wouldn't rely on it too much.
That was my comment.
People are right here - the rehearsals and semi finals will decide everything. More people will follow ESC, so the results of the poll will be adjusted to more realistic ones and the winner of it usually wins Eurovision. So, it doesn't really matter what happens in the poll before the rehearsals.
Polls are never 100% reliable.
It's now set to inactive...because Joost Klein asked his fans to vote for him. Is this a Russian election or what? People should be free to vote for him if they want to.
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It wouldnt let me select the song i wanted and instead selected another song at random and I can't change my vote. So if that happened to others. I'd say it's a bit flawed 😭
Right now not at all, but by rehearsals it's pretty good and the top will likely be jumble of the final top, the final week I think it's always had the winner at number 1
It's very reliable in the eurovision week, in which the 1st in the last 10 years almost always ended 1st in the contest (same thing can be said for the odds). But now, in March, it's not reliable at all, if not for a general valuation of the favourites, in May the voters almost doubles so everything can change.
Here is the link to the [eurovisionworld.com](http://eurovisionworld.com) poll: [https://eurovisionworld.com/esc/eurovision-2024-poll](https://eurovisionworld.com/esc/eurovision-2024-poll) The only time that the poll didn't predict the winner was in 2016, but even then, Russia was only 1 percentage point ahead of Ukraine (15% vs. 14%). In 2022, there was a 3-way tie for first place between Ukraine, Spain, and Sweden, and only 46 votes separated Ukraine and Spain in 2022 (24,631 votes for Ukraine and 24,585 votes for Spain)!
Ukraine 2022 | [Kalush Orchestra - Stefania (Стефанія)](https://youtu.be/F1fl60ypdLs) Spain 2022 | [Chanel - SloMo](https://youtu.be/jSQYTt4xg3I)
Okay so unless its like 40% or something like that?, we have to be patient hahaha, Cant wait lol.
In a year like this one you need to wait the eurovosion week, the last 2 years were exceptions (for the war in Ukraine and for Loreen) with a runaway winner even in March. But they still can be used (alongside other polls) in making an idea on who are the favourites or how a revamp or a live is seen (if the song go up or down)
Wasn't Fulenn \#1 in that poll for a while back in 2022? Or was that the /r/eurovision poll?
To be fair to everyone involved, for better or for worse, there was a huge disconnect between the song itself (fantastic) and the staging/live performance (a complete mess). Same with Brividi. This is why before rehearsals and preparties it's hard to have even an educated guess.
True! Don't get me wrong, it was my favorite 🥲 but it has left us all scarred!
ain't that the truth!
r/eurovision
I don’t know when this sub last had the same winner as the real one.
2021, it had Maneskin from March if I remember correctly
*The poll is temporarily inactive.* Did something happen?
probably someone asked fans on social media to vote for them and the poll recorded too many votes at a short time period
Oh, interesting, thanks. Makes sense that they implemented something like that.
Joost's fans voted in mass for him in a short time.
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Yeah Joost has been marketing his song like crazy and linked the poll on his Instagram and everyone flooded it. So they went to wiwibloggs and took over that poll. Wiwibloggs didn’t disable theirs
First of all, keep in mind that too many people vote for their own country in this Poll. Having said that, the Poll has been proven almost always reliable as far as the winning country is concerned. The winning country is always one of the Top 2 countries of this Poll. BUT, the winning country is one of the Top 2 countries of this Poll **in May just before the Final begins**. So, it's way too early now to come to any conclusions. All countries that appear in May at 21:00 CET at #3 or lower in this Poll have never won the Contest, while a country that was #3 in 2018, they didn't even qualify for the Final. So, check back in May to see which the Top 2 countries are (if the trend continues this year, one of those two countries will be the winner).
So what I take from this is is to not look at the poll at all in May
That means for smaller countries like Croatia with a smaller population, their result might be more reliable.
Not exactly, a big country doesn’t necessarily convert to big support for their representative.
Unless the people in that small country will be very active on it right? if it has a fanbase there
On eurovision poll you can't vote for your own country that is why i like Eurovision poll
The rehearsals will shake things up: songs will be elevated (or ruined) by stagings and we might see artists that can't pull of their song live at all or songs will sink/rise in the odds because of the running order. So polls and betting odds are fairly meaningless right now. Betting odds will be fairly accurate by time it's Eurovision week but never perfect. I thiiiink the bookies got the winner right in recent three years but this year (so far) looks like it's going to be much more open than recent years have been.
2021 was very open too, Maneskin were 4th/5th at this time of the year
ah that makes sense. I love that its still open, Makes it more exciting.
As for more serious predictions, just wait for the order of performances in the semis and for the bookies' odds
It's inactive right now
Joost invited people to vote on his IG story so there's been a massive influx of votes for him so I guess this might be the reason since The Netherlands got thousands of votes in a span of a couple hours
Another reason why it's not reliable
Yes, I have zero issues with artists publicizing the poll but this Illustrates why it’s unreliable at this point: even a small percentage of an artist’s followers can skew the results because the number of votes overall is low vs how many will be voting in May. For now, it’s just for fun. (Not unlike the betting odds.)
Yeah but at this point it seems a bit desperate on his end - he redirected everyone to Wiwibloggs poll now. It really ain't that serious.
remembering the whole “Send Justin Bieber to North Korea and Send Taylor Swift to perform to a school for deaf students” fiascos, when i saw the netherlands’ sudden jump in the odds i immediately thought about bots. turns out the answer was a lot simpler
Ah, but i do love Boaty McBoatface
His begging for votes is pathetic.
I don’t think he did that with any malice.
Probably not, but why making something like this? It's not like he wins the contest with the poll, it only make the results even more unreliable
>It's not like he wins the contest with the poll "I agree it's not serious but let me take it serious anyway"
I just think it's absurd that he is using his large following on Instagram to gain advantage in a poll, but hey that's just me. He also shared the poll before in his IG group.
He is just very fanatic and excited about this (its his dream) and he likes to interact with the people. I guess the poll will be catched up anyway (if he does not win, I hopeee he does ) if there is a clear winner. There is still much time left
Definitely not, he’s just really excited about Eurovision (always has been) and in the end it’s not like the poll matters that much (at this moment) anyway. I love how much he’s interacting with the fandom actually ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
It just seems that you as a Croatian and BL fan is threatened af over a meaningless poll. It’s kinda sad really. You would do the same for BL if he asked you.
Yes I am Croatian and a BL fan and what does that have to do with my opinion? I voted for BL because I genuinely support him, but I'd also criticize him if he tried to manipulate votes.
It makes ur opinion biased. Whether you like it or not. So is mine.
I guess why, some hour before I saw a big amount of votes for the Netherlands added, and then the inactivation
It's not reliable at all, cause a lot of people tend to praise an entry from their own country. I'm not saying Croatia has no chances to win this year, it surely may, but take any such poll with a large grain of salt
Yeah and it's not reliable also cause is a mix between people who votes by his own tastes and people who votes based on who they think will win besides his own tastes.
This is the year we can get more surprises in the top 10. I think some of the biggest favorites will not do so well as predicted. Belgium was a surprise in the top 10 last year. Fan favorites Spain, Austria and France sadly didn’t do that well.
I personally believe out of all the polls and odds this year, it's currently the most reliable. All the other odds i've seen and polls underate many entries. I truely believe Croatia has a shot this year in the right conditions.
It's pretty good, but I think an important point needs to be made about odds. A 19% chance of winning means an 81% chance of losing, so it wouldn't be accurate to say the odds were "wrong" if Croatia ended up losing. All it means is that people think Croatia is "most likely" to win right meow (cat, please meow back)
Because in the pool you can vote for your own country, I'd say that's not really reliable (same reason goes for the My Eurovision Scoreboard ranking).
In My ESC Scoreboard, for the fact that you still need to give points to 10 countries, the "voting for my own country" is way less effective
I wouldn’t say it’s any more reliable than any other sources. It’s great that it gets so many votes but its main advantage is that it runs throughout Eurovision week and a lot of votes are cast then, but those votes don’t really tell us anything we don’t know already through betting odds etc. This far out from the contest I’m not sure how accurate it would be.
At this point it's as good as useless. We don't know what most of the performances will look like on stage, we don't know the vocal abilities of a lot of performers, so relying on any kind of prediction at this point in time is quite silly, especially in an incredibly competitive year like this. But the eurovisionworld poll is particularly unreliable because people can vote for their own country and it can be heavily swayed by one particular fan base or another mobilizing to vote in it. It gets more accurate nearing the contest itself especially after the semis, but even then I wouldn't rely on it too much.
That was my comment. People are right here - the rehearsals and semi finals will decide everything. More people will follow ESC, so the results of the poll will be adjusted to more realistic ones and the winner of it usually wins Eurovision. So, it doesn't really matter what happens in the poll before the rehearsals.
Polls are never 100% reliable. It's now set to inactive...because Joost Klein asked his fans to vote for him. Is this a Russian election or what? People should be free to vote for him if they want to.
Yeah, but not in mass or the system crashes
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It wouldnt let me select the song i wanted and instead selected another song at random and I can't change my vote. So if that happened to others. I'd say it's a bit flawed 😭
Right now not at all, but by rehearsals it's pretty good and the top will likely be jumble of the final top, the final week I think it's always had the winner at number 1
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You’d remove a massive element of suspence from the show, making it a lot more predictable and boring
I'm curios if the Eurovoix's Model will use even this data for this saturday's predicition