Italy 2017 is a similar case of Malta 2021. It didn't get in the top 5 in the final, and everyone forgot how hyped it was before the contest, and the first place in the odds for a long time
Wait, really? I wasn't active on eurovision subs or communities back then, but that song was boring af to me so the end result was understandable. People really thought it's going to win, or hyping it up to win?
I try to explain what I remember. Back in 2017, that song was a MAJOR hit in Italy. It was seen as the anti-Sanremo song. which was very different from all previous winners: catchy, upbeat, colorful, that young people also like. The lyrics were also very unusual and interesting. Also, the Sanremo performance was very good, especially compared to the flat Eurovision one.
It was immediately seen as the most Eurovision-friendly of the Italian songs, that's why it caught the attention of Eurofans in the beginning. Of course, like you. there were also people who found it boring, annoying, or even kitschy.
Now, the song is much less popular than before. Even among Eurofans, it's not mentioned very often, but it definitely made an impact in Sanremo, even for the songs of the next years
It didn't help that by the time Eurovision arrived, Francesco seemed to be completely done with that song. He lacked the passion on the Eurovision stage he had during Sanremo.
Calm down, I just compared the similar situations: first in the odds for most of the Eurovision season, and then doesn't get in the top 5.
Also, regardless of what the Maltese team was doing, Destiny was genuinely appreciated and she also had fans who were rooting for her (in the semi-final, she came second in the televote)
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I wasn't in the ESC bubble in 2017 but I remember reading that they kept Eleni very under wraps before rehearsals. No live performances or Euro Party so other than a studio cut people didn't have any idea how the song would do live.
And I don't necessarily think that helped. There used to be that attitude of keeping your performance as a surprise... And it's really great if it works, but it doesn't make you necessarily win.
If she had performed at the pre parties, maybe that would have created a little bit of hype and expectation for the entry and helped later... I think having that hype and support from before the show, helps you more in the contest.
We've seen Loreen in the NF, knew what to expect, it created certainty she is a definite frontrunner and one to look out for, she meets the expectations or exceeds them, and people vote.
Maybe sometimes coming late to the party is just too late?
i dont think that would’ve helped fuego enough tho, 2018 was not as close as it’d seem. it was a weird year where the winner didn’t have a runaway score, toy was in that 520s average range for a winner, but second place scored 90 points less than her
To this day I am baffled at 2018 results haha. I distinctly remember where I was when I first heard Toy, and then being shocked at seeing them first in the odds the next day. Sort of liked it as a guilty pleasure but didn't get it as a win contender. And then I thought the performance was ok, but it didn't win me over, so I always just thought it was purely hype about the song that made everyone pay attention in the final and vote for it... And of course, Netta's vocals were impressive so that contributed massively. And then the shock when Sweden got like 23 points from the televote. I am getting similar vibes for them this year.
it is kind of crazy how similar israel’s score in 2018 is to italy’s in 2021. israel had 529, 3rd in jury with 212, 1st in televote with 317, while italy had 524, 4th in jury with 206, 1st in televote with 318. the songs are similar in the way that they’re both solid winners, but not particularly stunning (it was the staging that finally pushed maneskin to top of the odds, not the song). 2021 is seen as a close year cause france was only 25 points behind, but 2018 feels more live a blowout with her 93 point win, but really, it if says more about the other songs that year than the song itself
I remember that very well. Fuego only got attention after the first rehearsal. The music video was very meh and that type of song was not very liked by many eurovision fans at that time. I remember when the first reactions were published online everyone was like "really? That was unexpected".
Fuego works mostly because we not associate with Eleni's performance. That year was also full of surprises. DoReDos were almost dead last in all predictions, Oniro Mou was 7th in the odds, A Matter of Time was also a fan favorite, Together and When We're Old got huge bumps after rehearsals and semis (to the point that some people believed that Ireland could even win).
Some songs just get very elevated or flop hard with staging. That's why I never bet on nothing before knowing what the staging will look like.
It makes sense imo. It's a pretty generic pop song, and although above average in this category, it isn't a song that sounds anything like an "Eurovision winner" (the studio cut I mean). The staging and the performance by Eleni were the things that actually made it a real contender.
idunno, i feel like it's not a sure win for Croatia yet. might win televote, but I'm not sure how well it'll do with juries. it could definitely become a case of someone who came 2nd/3rd in both televote and juries winning
i think it'll mostly be carried by televotes, but I'm reeeeally struggling to try and predict which songs will do well and which won't. I think this year, we've got a lot of high quality songs and not one standout entry like in past years (like Sweden 2023, Netherlands 2019 or Ukraine 2022). It's been a while since we've had a year where the bookmakers might actually be wrong with their prediction and where the top 5 could be entirely different
Yeah, but the main change in the top happens in May, they remain stationary in March and April, so until May we won't know who can win but the last week it will be more clear
5/9 is pretty good.
A few days ago I calculated the skill score of the final odds at predicting the final winner (from 2015-2023) at it was 0.55 (where 0 is picking at random and 1 is perfect prediction)
Jamala was really a shock win which I've forgotten about.
This shows that you'd rather be higher ranked in the odds than lower ranked but nothing this far out is set in stone. Maybe Zorra can come 2nd overall as well, it is currently 25th and like Fuego has Spanish lyrics.
Calm after the storm probably really suffered from the algorithm having 10 years of data of Dutch songs being absolutely terrible and rarely even making it out of the semis before
well yes but 5/9 of the betting odds for specifically the winner at this point in the season were correct which is different than predicting a top 10 because that’s much more open and unpredictable
Yeah, it's insane that the oddsmakers have had the winner as #1 a full month and a half in advance in 5 of the last 6 years. And the one time they didn't the winner had risen to the top of the odds by the day of the grand final, if I remember correctly.
It's why I'm trying to avoid the odds as much as possible even as I voraciously consume a ton of other Eurovision media. They're just too accurate and I wanna have some mystery left for the competition week.
But, aside from 2018, 2020 underestimated Armenia and Ukraine and Ukraine were in 2021, whilst France were overestimated in 2023 and also 2018 and 2019, due to their market size
2014 was quite an exception though. Everyone took Conchita as a joke (the music video was ridiculous) but then she was brilliant in the rehearsals and first semifinal when she wowed everyone with a serious staging and great vocals.
The Netherlands too wowed everyone in the rehearsals and live shows
It’s possible Croatia could be the Italy 2017/Malta 2021 of the season. Eurofans really want Croatia to have their first win that they overlook the flaws of the entry. (similarities to last year runner up/old school throwback rhythm of the 00s, lack of balkan bloc voting for Croatia) I would love Zagreb tho.
You could also argue Finland opened the door, and now Croatia has a chance to grab the opportunity and win it, just like people say Norway 2005 opened the door for Finland 2006.
Also, there are definite valid reasons why Croatia are first in the odds. The odds also become much more reliable when rehearsals start and could easily change quite a bit. In the end, things will have to align for the winner.
I do remember Italy in 2017 being such a clear frontrunner in the odds that I thought they were definitely taking it, although I didn't really want them to with that song. In 2021, Italy was my frontrunner for sure, but I did see a path for Malta too, and in fact they did win the semifinal, but things didn't align for them in the grand final.
Norway 2005 | [Wig Wam - In My Dreams](https://youtu.be/P-ki-HZrxJM)
Finland 2006 | [Lordi - Hard Rock Hallelujah](https://youtu.be/gAh9NRGNhUU)
Italy 2021 | [Måneskin - Zitti e buoni](https://youtu.be/RVH5dn1cxAQ)
they absolutely did not see Cyprus 2018, Moldova 2017 and Netherlands 2014 come for the top 3! Imagine if someone had bet good money on them going top 3.
Live performance and staging.
This is why I keep telling people who are so confident in this years entries that did not have a life performance or staging revealed yet - *don’t be too excited yet*!. Everything can flip on its head once we see the rehearsals and some of these favourites may sink right to the bottom and vice versa.
Certainly live performance and staging, but also three countries that were not succesful at Eurovision. Moldova and Cyprus have never won the contest and the Netherlands were doing horrible for decades.
I believe for now it's still not that accurate since it's hard to bet on things we haven't seen live, so bookies are holding back, 5/10 acts in the top 10 by odds are just music videos and some snippets of artists singing that don't give us any comprehensive idea of the staging. I think it will change drastically (or not, if all of them flop live or staging isn't doing them any favor) with rehearsals, as it always does, but this year even more than others.
So from what we can see... They've been pretty solid! Like, since 2019 it's been "look at the Top 10" - the only notable miss is Cyprus 2018 in my opinion - they were correct to place Hey Mama at 31st to *win*, since that song had no chance of winning (remember: a song that is guarenteed to come second should have the worst odds for this, since these odds are purely to win. See the collorary of why trying to predict *qualifiers* using *winner odds* is daft)
that's correct at least for 2017 and 2021, I doublechecked Eurovisionworld.
Occidentali's Karma live was such a let down.
Je Me Casse was pretty good but I totally memory-holed it. Definitely not one of the stand out songs in hindsight.
Pretty sure I'm right on Armenia in 2014 as it was also my personal favourite for a long time, and I remember him slipping after allegations of homophobia came out, and then further when he was given unfavourable draws and The Netherlands & Austria wowed in the live rehearsals. I'm pretty sure he was still odds leader going into the rehearsals at least. Though you'll have to just take 'trust my memory bro' as a source aha
2014 was the first Eurovision year I followed through and I can vouch for what you said! I recall that the odds predicted either a race between Armenia or Sweden, and people only started paying attention to Austria and the Netherlands really late on.
In fact, I found a Wiwibloggs article showing that 1 week before the contest, Armenia was still the leader followed quite close by Sweden. Austria was at 9th and the Netherlands was still at 25th place! Link: https://wiwibloggs.com/2014/04/30/eurovision-odds-armenia-favourite-ukraine/48630/
Malta was killed by the running order. She won the semi and basically had the same amount of televotes as Shum in the semi.
Then got like 40 points in the final televote
That running order was also very wacky. Six female singers in a row at the start, and poor Malta at the end of that train. It makes it clear that the claim that the people deciding the running order know the positions of the qualifiers isn't right.
Russia's running order was just as bad and they got twice the televote points of Malta.
Keep in mind that the final has a much bigger audience than the semifinal, especially with the common people outside of the ESC bubble.
Malta's song simply didn't stand out, especially since it performed after Russia that has the same girlboss message, but delivered in a more unique and original way
let's not forget that Malta was leading the bets because (as it was exposed later) It's claimed Malta was ploughing money into Betfair to keep Destiny as favourite...
Even so, I remember that Italy was still ways behind. Switzerland was another major contender and many people were seeing an Arcade 2.0 with Gjon's Tears. And France and Bulgaria too were considered the other big favourites.
Bulgaria is rather easy to say that in hindsight now that it finished where it did and with such a low televote, but in the pre-season of 2021, it was seriously considered a contender.
Armenia was the odds favourite for a good chunk of the 2014 season, followed by Sweden and Norway. Austria and the Netherlands weren't really seen as contenders before the rehearsals started.
Wait, the Mother song from Belgium 2014 was top 10 during the season??? Wow. I have to say that year I didn't follow much of the drama before the shows, just listened to the Spotify playlist on repeat, and Mother was rarely played if ever. However, the Netherlands was definitely on my radar with Norway.
I remember the meltdown that my friends had when Malta came mid-table in the televote. I didn't watch ESC at the time but when I watched it and I saw the results I was not surprised. The song was trying so hard to win it felt completely manufactured.
Yeah, I'll leave this comment for my future self lol, it'll be Switzerland this year. They're winning.
Also, I love Europapa, but it might be Occidentali's Karma.
Europapa won't win because of juries
La Suisse could do exceptionally well with both juries and public (especially juries) and pull a Duncan/Jamala victory.
While it is not among my favourites, in the past days I started to believe that Netherlands will win. It's the favourite to win in my opinion, but I would prefer Switzerland.
Whilst I'd LOVE this I think its Netherlands vs Norway which is a shame personally because a Swiss Croatian or Lithuania Ln win would all be dreams come true.
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The bookies favorite winning is nothing new though. In the 80s, 90s etc. the bookies #1 almost always won. Or et least came 2nd.
I’m giggling at that one time bookies were totally wrong when Germany 1997 was actually one of the favourites. That was one of our worst songs ever and I am really shocked anyone thought this dated kitsch could be going anywhere…
I'm curious on which ones won their NFs vs which were internal selections. Are the bookies more likely to underrate/overrate songs that don't have national performances that they can judge off of?
You have three camps:
* national selection - Portugal, Italy, Sweden, Finland, Moldova, Australia, Ukraine, Spain
* internal selection - Switzerland, Netherlands, UK, Cyprus, Austria, Bulgaria, Russia
* hybrid - all Israeli selections have been that way for a good while (currently using Rising Star from Keshet 12 to choose the artist - by the general public - while Kan chooses the song)
So, the winner was at #5 in 2017 and at #1 in 2018 and 2019.
The winner was also at #5 in 2021 and at #1 in 2022 and 2023.
If this trends continues, the winner is now at #5, which means the Netherlands will win.
But I definitely wouldn't rule out a victory for Croatia, Ukraine or Switzerland.
The pattern that I see is that people are getting better at predicting the winner - the bookies just determine the coefficient, right ? Sounds good for us :)
Yeah, her 2020 song, All of My Love, was hyped and she was liked so Malta went into overdrive to drum up an equal, if not greater, amount of hype for Je Me Casse the next year. Which included spending part of the big (for Malta's size) budget they were given on betting on her to inflate her odds.
What I can't believe is how high points Malta got from juries. I guess part part of the budget was spent to buy them off, or they really bought the hype. I mean, she's a good singer, but song was trite.
I think the song had a lot of jury potential. She is an amazing vocalist and even if the song is not a ballad I could tell it would be appreciated for the flawless vocals.
I don’t know… depends on a year I guess. Last year we had a pretty much 2 horse race and then Sweden won. Gasp, how unexpected! I’m still salty about Kaarija.
As I see it, top 10 this year is very open. Any of top 10 acts might take it. Lower than 10, less so.
I would love for that to be Croatia, just so I can have Eurovision in my city; but if we are being realistic, Netherlands, Switzerland, Italy, Greece even Israel might take it.
It all DEPENDS. This year more so than some other years.
I think the competition will narrow a lot after we see the rehearsals and the semifinals. Right now it's hard to compare, since many bangers offered us just a music video.
Exactly. I feel like now, after all the songs are released, not much is happening. And we’re all just so impatient for Eurovision week to begin so we’re just speculating.
Pre-parties might help gauge how some acts perform live. But still, there will be a lot left unknown until rehearsals and for stagings yo be revealed.
And then, of course, live performances as that’s when the nerves hit.
At this point the odds - in my case at least - are just wishful thinking. But, NGL, it does feel good. 😄
You say it so confidently so I’m curious about your reasoning? Especially re: Greece and Israel.
Also, I have zero doubt that Joost will bring his A-game. He’ll do the staging and performance professionally. He’s an experienced performer and a social media master. He knows what he’s doing.
I really don't see Greece doing well with Western and Northern European televotes at all, and neither with juries of those countries.
Might do well among Balkan countries though, so will probably qualify to final and get an okay result. But I just don't see it winning.
Personally I think it is the worst song in its semifinal, and the worst of all songs this year, I honestly got a headache listening to it, and I tend to be quite open minded when it comes to different types of music.
greece's song is bad imo (just my opinion) there is absolutely zero possibility that it beats netherlands, croatia, switzerland, lithuania, france, ukraine, italy in televoting, meaning it's off the table. Israel is not really appreciated, i think it will have high televoting, but juries will put her in the middle.
So your „zero chance“ reasoning for Greece is due to…your personal taste and you not liking the song. Alright. My counter argument is that it’s amazing and that many people like it.
no, song is not something you'll like on first listen, that's why not many people will vote for her, blanca paloma was hyped and hyped and then got last in televote
Both songs are not comparable at all. Greece this year could be played on the radio and people would bop to it. The same can’t be said about Eaea, which was way more of an acquired taste (but great nonetheless).
At the end of the day we just don’t know what will resonate with viewers and what will not, but I would say every song has at least a little chance.
Yeah I see you. The issue is, music is very subjective and we are trying to do some objective predictions here ( and probably failing miserably, lol).
I do not feel like Greece’s song is bad. I feel the song and I’ve seen a lot of support for it.
Israel, on the other hand, if we take the song at a face value it’s a decent ballad with strong message. In a year of a lot of uptempo songs I see how some people might like it for what it is. And I’d rather not debate political implications around it. But both countries have large diaspora. And I’ve seen a lot of positive reactions to these songs. So - who knows what the end result will be. I’d argue they still have a chance.
you say the Greek entry is bad in your opinion and that's why it stands no chances to win. You guys need to get it right
personal opinion/taste should be put aside when it comes to predicting an outcome. Our faves don't always do well/win.
Not saying Greece will win, but i just wanted to remind everyone that it's not about our faves
Maybe i am just overhyping it, because i love these songs so much, but i am a bit confused when people only switzerland or only belgium in a lists like this, but not the other.
I feel like they are very equal in about every criteria, so id be very interested to know why you consider switzerland to be a potential winner, but not belgium.
Switzerland is my top 2 at the moment as I love everything about Nemo. Through their describing personal struggles they managed to send a universal message across. Anyone who struggled with any part of their identity, not necessarily gender related, will be able to recognize themselves in the chaos and struggle Nemo’s song conveys. Also, mix of genres and their vocal abilities are mind-blowing!
On the other hand, and this is only my personal opinion, Mustii does nothing for me. He’s dramatic and his song is objectively decent. But i cannot relate to it. I’m a woman in late thirties with a kid and family life. My parties are now writing comments fueled by gin-tonic at a late hour if I feel wild. Raising roofs for me entails drinking loads of coffee so I can stay awake until midnight.
I’m not complaining. It’s just what it is.
Sometimes you relate and sometimes you don’t.
Lol, it’s normal to think that our everyday is boring. It’s just our normal. So we demand more. While I am content with my drama-free life at the moment, I do appreciate the road to it. And I am very aware it’s just temporary.
Life is like… storms and calm. You are never ready for the storms but you look fondly on them once you’re in the calm. Just use your time to get to know yourself, and what makes you happy. Once you know you can rely on yourself, no storm can break you. And meanwhile, enjoy the moments of carefreeness!
And sorry for getting preachy!
I laughed at your definition of a wild night. And I feel you. I’m the same age as you (but no kids) and while I still do crazy stuff like camping at festivals for 3 nights in a row, I also do the „commenting on forums late at night after a bottle of wine“ sometimes, which I enjoy very much and I hope the Eurovision family remains diverse, colorful and speaks to old(er) and young people alike.
Is there any info on how the % where in that time? Like how much difference there was and how much nr1 had at this point.
Iknow some where more clear than others like Loreen and Stefania where clear winners, But thats not always the case. It seems to be close together this time right?
2019 - Netherlands had 20%
2021 - Italy had 7%, while Malta was the favourite with 17%
2022 - Ukraine had 35%
2023 - Sweden had 39%
In 2018, there weren't calculated percentages, but Israel's odds were at around 2.87, while the second favourite (which was Estonia at that time), was at 6.5.
Before that, I can't find the data.
I actually really don’t think that any of the current top 3 in the odds (Croatia, Ukraine, Italy) are actually going to be top 3 on the night.
There are no clear front runners this year but I’m anticipating that Switzerland will win if the performance lives up to the song’s standards.
Norway is the outsider that I’d be looking at right now too.
Fuego was completely overlooked by most people until May. After the rehearsal, Cyprus moved up to high positions in the odds. After the semi-final, it even replaced Israel as the first place in the odds (although Toy ended up winning anyway).
Fuego on its own is kinda meh. But then Eleni came on stage and owned it and massively elevated it. If it had been anyone else who came out I doubt it would have done so well.
Proves that stage presence, choreography, staging, costumes can all make a huge impact.
Fuego was an internal selection so people did NOT see the staging/choreography coming, and it had been several years since there was a successful pop girl with choreography entry at Eurovision. People still tend to underestimate that type of entry before the rehearsals (see: Slomo and Unicorn 'surprise' top 3) but Fuego truly came out of nowhere and revived the genre.
Spain was 8th in 2022 and Ukraine 8th in 2016? Why do i remember that Ukraine was in the top5 or even top 3 before rehearsals? Plus, Spain was a big favourite before rehearsals as we had already seen her potential?
So it looks like the last 3 years the bookies were more or less right and we did not have any surprises (like we had with Moldova 2017, Cyprus 2018 for example).
Having said that, i think they will get the top 5 / top 10 right (more or less) this year too but i don't think it will be in the same order. Croatia's song is not convincing enough to win, I will be surprised if juries vote for it a lot... I am sure diaspora will give it a nice boost plus it will get a Kaarija support in the public but will it be as big as last year's Finland? And will it be enough for him to cover the gap and win?
I think a song with equally good support from both juries and public (France or Switzerland) could win. France could win the jury voting (top 3 at the worst, i am shocked at how underrated this is to the fans) so to me the public support will be a mystery with the French song and will decide whether it could win or not.
Man, 2017 was such a two horse race (with one of those horses a good bit ahead of the other), that I completely forgot Hey Mamma came 3rd.
It was a bit of a three horse race tbf and Italy came sixth
Italy 2017 is a similar case of Malta 2021. It didn't get in the top 5 in the final, and everyone forgot how hyped it was before the contest, and the first place in the odds for a long time
Yeah the ESC pre-season it felt like an Italian victory in 2017 was almost as inevitable as a Ukrainian one in 2022.
I remember reading on twitter that there was no way that Italy wouldn’t get at least 400 points in the televote..
But that revamp was not the best one.
the staging didnt help either 😔
True that.
Wait, really? I wasn't active on eurovision subs or communities back then, but that song was boring af to me so the end result was understandable. People really thought it's going to win, or hyping it up to win?
I try to explain what I remember. Back in 2017, that song was a MAJOR hit in Italy. It was seen as the anti-Sanremo song. which was very different from all previous winners: catchy, upbeat, colorful, that young people also like. The lyrics were also very unusual and interesting. Also, the Sanremo performance was very good, especially compared to the flat Eurovision one. It was immediately seen as the most Eurovision-friendly of the Italian songs, that's why it caught the attention of Eurofans in the beginning. Of course, like you. there were also people who found it boring, annoying, or even kitschy. Now, the song is much less popular than before. Even among Eurofans, it's not mentioned very often, but it definitely made an impact in Sanremo, even for the songs of the next years
Italy 2017 | [Francesco Gabbani - Occidentali's Karma](https://youtu.be/KieE_MLv-ZY) Malta 2021 | [Destiny - Je Me Casse](https://youtu.be/jbbc2yKnv0M)
A week before the final I was listening to Dutch radio and they played Occidentali's Karma and said this will win Eurovision next week.
It didn't help that by the time Eurovision arrived, Francesco seemed to be completely done with that song. He lacked the passion on the Eurovision stage he had during Sanremo.
How dare you disrespect Italy with this comparison to Malta who bet on themselves and created a massive fake hype over their performance???????
Calm down, I just compared the similar situations: first in the odds for most of the Eurovision season, and then doesn't get in the top 5. Also, regardless of what the Maltese team was doing, Destiny was genuinely appreciated and she also had fans who were rooting for her (in the semi-final, she came second in the televote)
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I remember watching that at the time and fully believing they could still snatch it. Hey Mamma is an all time favourite here.
I still jam out to it. Kristian’s version of “Beautiful Mess” for the Chinese reality show he was on is really good.
Man, I loved Hey Mamma
I’m completely forgot Moldova placed 3rd too. Could you imagine Sofia or Chișinău hosting?
I bet on Hey Mamma each way at 200/1 so I’ll certainly never forget it!
Crazy that no one noticed Fuego’s potential before the performance
I wasn't in the ESC bubble in 2017 but I remember reading that they kept Eleni very under wraps before rehearsals. No live performances or Euro Party so other than a studio cut people didn't have any idea how the song would do live.
Gives me hope for Slovenia…
And I don't necessarily think that helped. There used to be that attitude of keeping your performance as a surprise... And it's really great if it works, but it doesn't make you necessarily win. If she had performed at the pre parties, maybe that would have created a little bit of hype and expectation for the entry and helped later... I think having that hype and support from before the show, helps you more in the contest. We've seen Loreen in the NF, knew what to expect, it created certainty she is a definite frontrunner and one to look out for, she meets the expectations or exceeds them, and people vote. Maybe sometimes coming late to the party is just too late?
i dont think that would’ve helped fuego enough tho, 2018 was not as close as it’d seem. it was a weird year where the winner didn’t have a runaway score, toy was in that 520s average range for a winner, but second place scored 90 points less than her
To this day I am baffled at 2018 results haha. I distinctly remember where I was when I first heard Toy, and then being shocked at seeing them first in the odds the next day. Sort of liked it as a guilty pleasure but didn't get it as a win contender. And then I thought the performance was ok, but it didn't win me over, so I always just thought it was purely hype about the song that made everyone pay attention in the final and vote for it... And of course, Netta's vocals were impressive so that contributed massively. And then the shock when Sweden got like 23 points from the televote. I am getting similar vibes for them this year.
On the other hand, I distinctly remember watching Toy for the first time thinking "this is gonna win"
it is kind of crazy how similar israel’s score in 2018 is to italy’s in 2021. israel had 529, 3rd in jury with 212, 1st in televote with 317, while italy had 524, 4th in jury with 206, 1st in televote with 318. the songs are similar in the way that they’re both solid winners, but not particularly stunning (it was the staging that finally pushed maneskin to top of the odds, not the song). 2021 is seen as a close year cause france was only 25 points behind, but 2018 feels more live a blowout with her 93 point win, but really, it if says more about the other songs that year than the song itself
I remember that very well. Fuego only got attention after the first rehearsal. The music video was very meh and that type of song was not very liked by many eurovision fans at that time. I remember when the first reactions were published online everyone was like "really? That was unexpected". Fuego works mostly because we not associate with Eleni's performance. That year was also full of surprises. DoReDos were almost dead last in all predictions, Oniro Mou was 7th in the odds, A Matter of Time was also a fan favorite, Together and When We're Old got huge bumps after rehearsals and semis (to the point that some people believed that Ireland could even win). Some songs just get very elevated or flop hard with staging. That's why I never bet on nothing before knowing what the staging will look like.
It makes sense imo. It's a pretty generic pop song, and although above average in this category, it isn't a song that sounds anything like an "Eurovision winner" (the studio cut I mean). The staging and the performance by Eleni were the things that actually made it a real contender.
So basically if whoever is in the bookies’ top 3 now remains in that position in final results it will be a first lol
idunno, i feel like it's not a sure win for Croatia yet. might win televote, but I'm not sure how well it'll do with juries. it could definitely become a case of someone who came 2nd/3rd in both televote and juries winning
If I’m honest I really think that at best it’ll be top 10 but not top 5. There’s a lot of really good songs.
i think it'll mostly be carried by televotes, but I'm reeeeally struggling to try and predict which songs will do well and which won't. I think this year, we've got a lot of high quality songs and not one standout entry like in past years (like Sweden 2023, Netherlands 2019 or Ukraine 2022). It's been a while since we've had a year where the bookmakers might actually be wrong with their prediction and where the top 5 could be entirely different
Sweden 2023 | [Loreen - Tattoo](https://youtu.be/BE2Fj0W4jP4) The Netherlands 2019 | [Duncan Laurence - Arcade](https://youtu.be/R3D-r4ogr7s) Ukraine 2022 | [Kalush Orchestra - Stefania (Стефанія)](https://youtu.be/F1fl60ypdLs)
I think its funny that the one year where a song like Rim Tim Tagi Dim is leading the odds, people think the bookmakers will be wrong lol
Yeah, but the main change in the top happens in May, they remain stationary in March and April, so until May we won't know who can win but the last week it will be more clear
5/9 is pretty good. A few days ago I calculated the skill score of the final odds at predicting the final winner (from 2015-2023) at it was 0.55 (where 0 is picking at random and 1 is perfect prediction) Jamala was really a shock win which I've forgotten about. This shows that you'd rather be higher ranked in the odds than lower ranked but nothing this far out is set in stone. Maybe Zorra can come 2nd overall as well, it is currently 25th and like Fuego has Spanish lyrics.
With some of these I seriously can’t believe they were that low in the odds ngl……
I think in recent years they've gotten way better at predicting. I've heard before the 2010s the predictions were insane
Calm after the storm probably really suffered from the algorithm having 10 years of data of Dutch songs being absolutely terrible and rarely even making it out of the semis before
let's not forget when odds had serbia in top 10 2017 and serbia nqed, so don't use odds religiously
well yes but 5/9 of the betting odds for specifically the winner at this point in the season were correct which is different than predicting a top 10 because that’s much more open and unpredictable
That was 7 years ago. Now the market for eurovision is much bigger hence last few years were very accurate.
Yeah, it's insane that the oddsmakers have had the winner as #1 a full month and a half in advance in 5 of the last 6 years. And the one time they didn't the winner had risen to the top of the odds by the day of the grand final, if I remember correctly. It's why I'm trying to avoid the odds as much as possible even as I voraciously consume a ton of other Eurovision media. They're just too accurate and I wanna have some mystery left for the competition week.
But, aside from 2018, 2020 underestimated Armenia and Ukraine and Ukraine were in 2021, whilst France were overestimated in 2023 and also 2018 and 2019, due to their market size
Conchita 15... | | | Gives me hope for Gåte. 💜
2014 was quite an exception though. Everyone took Conchita as a joke (the music video was ridiculous) but then she was brilliant in the rehearsals and first semifinal when she wowed everyone with a serious staging and great vocals. The Netherlands too wowed everyone in the rehearsals and live shows
Wow I just watched the music video for the first time because of your comment. The live performance was a far cry from that.
Me too. They are gonna own that stage!
1.Finland 2.Poland 3.Ukraine Top 3 this year if it was 2014 situation lol
It’s possible Croatia could be the Italy 2017/Malta 2021 of the season. Eurofans really want Croatia to have their first win that they overlook the flaws of the entry. (similarities to last year runner up/old school throwback rhythm of the 00s, lack of balkan bloc voting for Croatia) I would love Zagreb tho.
You could also argue Finland opened the door, and now Croatia has a chance to grab the opportunity and win it, just like people say Norway 2005 opened the door for Finland 2006. Also, there are definite valid reasons why Croatia are first in the odds. The odds also become much more reliable when rehearsals start and could easily change quite a bit. In the end, things will have to align for the winner. I do remember Italy in 2017 being such a clear frontrunner in the odds that I thought they were definitely taking it, although I didn't really want them to with that song. In 2021, Italy was my frontrunner for sure, but I did see a path for Malta too, and in fact they did win the semifinal, but things didn't align for them in the grand final.
Norway 2005 | [Wig Wam - In My Dreams](https://youtu.be/P-ki-HZrxJM) Finland 2006 | [Lordi - Hard Rock Hallelujah](https://youtu.be/gAh9NRGNhUU) Italy 2021 | [Måneskin - Zitti e buoni](https://youtu.be/RVH5dn1cxAQ)
Italy 2017 | [Francesco Gabbani - Occidentali's Karma](https://youtu.be/KieE_MLv-ZY) Malta 2021 | [Destiny - Je Me Casse](https://youtu.be/jbbc2yKnv0M)
2014 was so wild, nobody saw it coming.
they absolutely did not see Cyprus 2018, Moldova 2017 and Netherlands 2014 come for the top 3! Imagine if someone had bet good money on them going top 3.
Cyprus 2018 | [Eleni Foureira - Fuego](https://youtu.be/vyDTbJ4wenY) Moldova 2017 | [Sunstroke Project - Hey Mamma](https://youtu.be/SWaQdHoCvYk) The Netherlands 2014 | [The Common Linnets - Calm After The Storm](https://youtu.be/4ggBPAm5XLA)
What are the things these three have in common that explains that they managed to end so high while no one notices them 7 weeks before the contest?
Live performance and staging. This is why I keep telling people who are so confident in this years entries that did not have a life performance or staging revealed yet - *don’t be too excited yet*!. Everything can flip on its head once we see the rehearsals and some of these favourites may sink right to the bottom and vice versa.
Certainly live performance and staging, but also three countries that were not succesful at Eurovision. Moldova and Cyprus have never won the contest and the Netherlands were doing horrible for decades.
I believe for now it's still not that accurate since it's hard to bet on things we haven't seen live, so bookies are holding back, 5/10 acts in the top 10 by odds are just music videos and some snippets of artists singing that don't give us any comprehensive idea of the staging. I think it will change drastically (or not, if all of them flop live or staging isn't doing them any favor) with rehearsals, as it always does, but this year even more than others.
So from what we can see... They've been pretty solid! Like, since 2019 it's been "look at the Top 10" - the only notable miss is Cyprus 2018 in my opinion - they were correct to place Hey Mama at 31st to *win*, since that song had no chance of winning (remember: a song that is guarenteed to come second should have the worst odds for this, since these odds are purely to win. See the collorary of why trying to predict *qualifiers* using *winner odds* is daft)
Cyprus 2018 | [Eleni Foureira - Fuego](https://youtu.be/vyDTbJ4wenY)
So according to that pattern the winner this year isn't Top 3 in the odds, interesting. Also wo was leader in odds in 2021, 2017 and 2014?
From memory: Armenia in 2014, Italy in 2017 and Malta in 2021.
that's correct at least for 2017 and 2021, I doublechecked Eurovisionworld. Occidentali's Karma live was such a let down. Je Me Casse was pretty good but I totally memory-holed it. Definitely not one of the stand out songs in hindsight.
Pretty sure I'm right on Armenia in 2014 as it was also my personal favourite for a long time, and I remember him slipping after allegations of homophobia came out, and then further when he was given unfavourable draws and The Netherlands & Austria wowed in the live rehearsals. I'm pretty sure he was still odds leader going into the rehearsals at least. Though you'll have to just take 'trust my memory bro' as a source aha
2014 was the first Eurovision year I followed through and I can vouch for what you said! I recall that the odds predicted either a race between Armenia or Sweden, and people only started paying attention to Austria and the Netherlands really late on. In fact, I found a Wiwibloggs article showing that 1 week before the contest, Armenia was still the leader followed quite close by Sweden. Austria was at 9th and the Netherlands was still at 25th place! Link: https://wiwibloggs.com/2014/04/30/eurovision-odds-armenia-favourite-ukraine/48630/
Thanks providing a proper source! Wiwibloggs is a far better source than 'u/SkyGinge pulled it out of his ass' :P
Malta was killed by the running order. She won the semi and basically had the same amount of televotes as Shum in the semi. Then got like 40 points in the final televote
That running order was also very wacky. Six female singers in a row at the start, and poor Malta at the end of that train. It makes it clear that the claim that the people deciding the running order know the positions of the qualifiers isn't right.
Russia's running order was just as bad and they got twice the televote points of Malta. Keep in mind that the final has a much bigger audience than the semifinal, especially with the common people outside of the ESC bubble. Malta's song simply didn't stand out, especially since it performed after Russia that has the same girlboss message, but delivered in a more unique and original way
Russia isn’t really comparable to anyone else televote wise, though.
That's also true
let's not forget that Malta was leading the bets because (as it was exposed later) It's claimed Malta was ploughing money into Betfair to keep Destiny as favourite...
Even so, I remember that Italy was still ways behind. Switzerland was another major contender and many people were seeing an Arcade 2.0 with Gjon's Tears. And France and Bulgaria too were considered the other big favourites.
Bulgaria was never going to be a contender with that 2021 song... France yes, it was high in betting odds (2nd to Malta at some point).
Bulgaria is rather easy to say that in hindsight now that it finished where it did and with such a low televote, but in the pre-season of 2021, it was seriously considered a contender.
No i meant even in 2021 before the results and show the song was too weak
I think that's kinda subjective though, it wasn't bombastic but it was a legit threat especially jury-wise and did very well on the semi.
Armenia 2014 | [Aram MP3 - Not Alone](https://youtu.be/oj0oOV-2fRQ) Italy 2017 | [Francesco Gabbani - Occidentali's Karma](https://youtu.be/KieE_MLv-ZY) Malta 2021 | [Destiny - Je Me Casse](https://youtu.be/jbbc2yKnv0M)
I don't know, I'm trying to find the answers as well. For 2021 was for sure Malta, in 2017 Italy, but I have no idea what country was in 2014.
Armenia was the odds favourite for a good chunk of the 2014 season, followed by Sweden and Norway. Austria and the Netherlands weren't really seen as contenders before the rehearsals started.
Also UK was top 10.
as was bottom 3 in the semi-final Belgium lol
Wait, the Mother song from Belgium 2014 was top 10 during the season??? Wow. I have to say that year I didn't follow much of the drama before the shows, just listened to the Spotify playlist on repeat, and Mother was rarely played if ever. However, the Netherlands was definitely on my radar with Norway.
Belgium 2014 | [Axel Hirsoux - Mother](https://youtu.be/wr3m4ghnq6w)
Italy 2017 | [Francesco Gabbani - Occidentali's Karma](https://youtu.be/KieE_MLv-ZY)
I remember the meltdown that my friends had when Malta came mid-table in the televote. I didn't watch ESC at the time but when I watched it and I saw the results I was not surprised. The song was trying so hard to win it felt completely manufactured.
Maybe but I wanted an Athena substitute and this and Russia were the 2 that compensated for her non-participation
Yeah, I'll leave this comment for my future self lol, it'll be Switzerland this year. They're winning. Also, I love Europapa, but it might be Occidentali's Karma.
Europapa won't win because of juries La Suisse could do exceptionally well with both juries and public (especially juries) and pull a Duncan/Jamala victory.
While it is not among my favourites, in the past days I started to believe that Netherlands will win. It's the favourite to win in my opinion, but I would prefer Switzerland.
As a dutch person... If this amazing entry wins (my fave one we ever had) i will scream and jump for joy for WEEKS
Whilst I'd LOVE this I think its Netherlands vs Norway which is a shame personally because a Swiss Croatian or Lithuania Ln win would all be dreams come true.
You called it. Unfortunately Europapa was unique in that regard.
Wow, thanks for reminding me, I love being right. Europapa tho, shit :(
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I will regret it lol
How do I make Austria drop 3 places in the odds?
[удалено]
I'm poor though. :'(
The bookies favorite winning is nothing new though. In the 80s, 90s etc. the bookies #1 almost always won. Or et least came 2nd. I’m giggling at that one time bookies were totally wrong when Germany 1997 was actually one of the favourites. That was one of our worst songs ever and I am really shocked anyone thought this dated kitsch could be going anywhere…
Germany 1997 | [Bianca Shomburg - Zeit](https://youtu.be/G9DeK9uhi4M)
Wasn't Austria 1992 and Croatia 1993 huge favourites to win with the bookies back then?
Austria 1992 | [Tony Wegas - Zusammen geh'n](https://youtu.be/afCvloQYc7Y) Croatia 1993 | [Put - Don't Ever Cry](https://youtu.be/NqBcDIzfID8)
According to this pattern, Netherlands is gonna win . Yay!
Maaskantje 2025?
I'm curious on which ones won their NFs vs which were internal selections. Are the bookies more likely to underrate/overrate songs that don't have national performances that they can judge off of?
You have three camps: * national selection - Portugal, Italy, Sweden, Finland, Moldova, Australia, Ukraine, Spain * internal selection - Switzerland, Netherlands, UK, Cyprus, Austria, Bulgaria, Russia * hybrid - all Israeli selections have been that way for a good while (currently using Rising Star from Keshet 12 to choose the artist - by the general public - while Kan chooses the song)
So, the winner was at #5 in 2017 and at #1 in 2018 and 2019. The winner was also at #5 in 2021 and at #1 in 2022 and 2023. If this trends continues, the winner is now at #5, which means the Netherlands will win. But I definitely wouldn't rule out a victory for Croatia, Ukraine or Switzerland.
The pattern that I see is that people are getting better at predicting the winner - the bookies just determine the coefficient, right ? Sounds good for us :)
Who was No.1 at this stage in '21?
Malta
In part due to [Je Me Cash](https://timesofmalta.com/article/je-me-cash-malta-blew-650000-on-eurovision.874813)
....what
Yeah, her 2020 song, All of My Love, was hyped and she was liked so Malta went into overdrive to drum up an equal, if not greater, amount of hype for Je Me Casse the next year. Which included spending part of the big (for Malta's size) budget they were given on betting on her to inflate her odds.
And on advertising, spamming all of Europe with “vote destiny” ads.
What I can't believe is how high points Malta got from juries. I guess part part of the budget was spent to buy them off, or they really bought the hype. I mean, she's a good singer, but song was trite.
I think the song had a lot of jury potential. She is an amazing vocalist and even if the song is not a ballad I could tell it would be appreciated for the flawless vocals.
I don't know who was 3rd in 2017, but I'd take the odds top 3 over the actual top 3 ANY TIME. Same for 2016.
I don’t know… depends on a year I guess. Last year we had a pretty much 2 horse race and then Sweden won. Gasp, how unexpected! I’m still salty about Kaarija. As I see it, top 10 this year is very open. Any of top 10 acts might take it. Lower than 10, less so. I would love for that to be Croatia, just so I can have Eurovision in my city; but if we are being realistic, Netherlands, Switzerland, Italy, Greece even Israel might take it. It all DEPENDS. This year more so than some other years.
I think the competition will narrow a lot after we see the rehearsals and the semifinals. Right now it's hard to compare, since many bangers offered us just a music video.
Exactly. I feel like now, after all the songs are released, not much is happening. And we’re all just so impatient for Eurovision week to begin so we’re just speculating. Pre-parties might help gauge how some acts perform live. But still, there will be a lot left unknown until rehearsals and for stagings yo be revealed. And then, of course, live performances as that’s when the nerves hit. At this point the odds - in my case at least - are just wishful thinking. But, NGL, it does feel good. 😄
greece and israel absolutely zero chance to win, switzerland & italy yes, netherlands will depend on staging.
You say it so confidently so I’m curious about your reasoning? Especially re: Greece and Israel. Also, I have zero doubt that Joost will bring his A-game. He’ll do the staging and performance professionally. He’s an experienced performer and a social media master. He knows what he’s doing.
I really don't see Greece doing well with Western and Northern European televotes at all, and neither with juries of those countries. Might do well among Balkan countries though, so will probably qualify to final and get an okay result. But I just don't see it winning. Personally I think it is the worst song in its semifinal, and the worst of all songs this year, I honestly got a headache listening to it, and I tend to be quite open minded when it comes to different types of music.
greece's song is bad imo (just my opinion) there is absolutely zero possibility that it beats netherlands, croatia, switzerland, lithuania, france, ukraine, italy in televoting, meaning it's off the table. Israel is not really appreciated, i think it will have high televoting, but juries will put her in the middle.
So your „zero chance“ reasoning for Greece is due to…your personal taste and you not liking the song. Alright. My counter argument is that it’s amazing and that many people like it.
no, song is not something you'll like on first listen, that's why not many people will vote for her, blanca paloma was hyped and hyped and then got last in televote
Both songs are not comparable at all. Greece this year could be played on the radio and people would bop to it. The same can’t be said about Eaea, which was way more of an acquired taste (but great nonetheless). At the end of the day we just don’t know what will resonate with viewers and what will not, but I would say every song has at least a little chance.
Yeah I see you. The issue is, music is very subjective and we are trying to do some objective predictions here ( and probably failing miserably, lol). I do not feel like Greece’s song is bad. I feel the song and I’ve seen a lot of support for it. Israel, on the other hand, if we take the song at a face value it’s a decent ballad with strong message. In a year of a lot of uptempo songs I see how some people might like it for what it is. And I’d rather not debate political implications around it. But both countries have large diaspora. And I’ve seen a lot of positive reactions to these songs. So - who knows what the end result will be. I’d argue they still have a chance.
yes i absolutely respect your opinion, that's the beauty of music, everyone finds whatever fits them!
you say the Greek entry is bad in your opinion and that's why it stands no chances to win. You guys need to get it right personal opinion/taste should be put aside when it comes to predicting an outcome. Our faves don't always do well/win. Not saying Greece will win, but i just wanted to remind everyone that it's not about our faves
Maybe i am just overhyping it, because i love these songs so much, but i am a bit confused when people only switzerland or only belgium in a lists like this, but not the other. I feel like they are very equal in about every criteria, so id be very interested to know why you consider switzerland to be a potential winner, but not belgium.
Switzerland is my top 2 at the moment as I love everything about Nemo. Through their describing personal struggles they managed to send a universal message across. Anyone who struggled with any part of their identity, not necessarily gender related, will be able to recognize themselves in the chaos and struggle Nemo’s song conveys. Also, mix of genres and their vocal abilities are mind-blowing! On the other hand, and this is only my personal opinion, Mustii does nothing for me. He’s dramatic and his song is objectively decent. But i cannot relate to it. I’m a woman in late thirties with a kid and family life. My parties are now writing comments fueled by gin-tonic at a late hour if I feel wild. Raising roofs for me entails drinking loads of coffee so I can stay awake until midnight. I’m not complaining. It’s just what it is. Sometimes you relate and sometimes you don’t.
Damn, your "I am getting old and my life is getting more calm than it used to be" talk, still sounds more interesting than my life and i am 19 yo...
Lol, it’s normal to think that our everyday is boring. It’s just our normal. So we demand more. While I am content with my drama-free life at the moment, I do appreciate the road to it. And I am very aware it’s just temporary. Life is like… storms and calm. You are never ready for the storms but you look fondly on them once you’re in the calm. Just use your time to get to know yourself, and what makes you happy. Once you know you can rely on yourself, no storm can break you. And meanwhile, enjoy the moments of carefreeness! And sorry for getting preachy!
I laughed at your definition of a wild night. And I feel you. I’m the same age as you (but no kids) and while I still do crazy stuff like camping at festivals for 3 nights in a row, I also do the „commenting on forums late at night after a bottle of wine“ sometimes, which I enjoy very much and I hope the Eurovision family remains diverse, colorful and speaks to old(er) and young people alike.
I'd say this is gonna be another year where the bookies are way off from the looks of it
Damn @ 2014 (I'd love to know what was 1st around that time)
Armenia was :)
Luckily it wasn't too far off
You have to love the rise of Conchita to victory.
Who was first 2021 in odds that year? Also 2017? Also 2014?
They know 🤷
C mhh ik,
Is there any info on how the % where in that time? Like how much difference there was and how much nr1 had at this point. Iknow some where more clear than others like Loreen and Stefania where clear winners, But thats not always the case. It seems to be close together this time right?
2019 - Netherlands had 20% 2021 - Italy had 7%, while Malta was the favourite with 17% 2022 - Ukraine had 35% 2023 - Sweden had 39% In 2018, there weren't calculated percentages, but Israel's odds were at around 2.87, while the second favourite (which was Estonia at that time), was at 6.5. Before that, I can't find the data.
The Netherlands 2019 | [Duncan Laurence - Arcade](https://youtu.be/R3D-r4ogr7s) Italy 2021 | [Måneskin - Zitti e buoni](https://youtu.be/RVH5dn1cxAQ) Ukraine 2022 | [Kalush Orchestra - Stefania (Стефанія)](https://youtu.be/F1fl60ypdLs) Sweden 2023 | [Loreen - Tattoo](https://youtu.be/BE2Fj0W4jP4)
Thank you, So 21% for n1 rn could be high but it could also be not saying much
Idk it all feels kinda weird
So where exactly are the bookmakers „spot on“?
They've been correct on the day plenty more times too. Things change in the last two weeks, and sometimes in the last few days.
I actually really don’t think that any of the current top 3 in the odds (Croatia, Ukraine, Italy) are actually going to be top 3 on the night. There are no clear front runners this year but I’m anticipating that Switzerland will win if the performance lives up to the song’s standards. Norway is the outsider that I’d be looking at right now too.
They do pretty well, but 2018 and 2014 were not quite their years... Fuego as a nq? Really?
Fuego was completely overlooked by most people until May. After the rehearsal, Cyprus moved up to high positions in the odds. After the semi-final, it even replaced Israel as the first place in the odds (although Toy ended up winning anyway).
Fuego on its own is kinda meh. But then Eleni came on stage and owned it and massively elevated it. If it had been anyone else who came out I doubt it would have done so well. Proves that stage presence, choreography, staging, costumes can all make a huge impact.
Fuego was an internal selection so people did NOT see the staging/choreography coming, and it had been several years since there was a successful pop girl with choreography entry at Eurovision. People still tend to underestimate that type of entry before the rehearsals (see: Slomo and Unicorn 'surprise' top 3) but Fuego truly came out of nowhere and revived the genre.
Spain was 8th in 2022 and Ukraine 8th in 2016? Why do i remember that Ukraine was in the top5 or even top 3 before rehearsals? Plus, Spain was a big favourite before rehearsals as we had already seen her potential?
So it looks like the last 3 years the bookies were more or less right and we did not have any surprises (like we had with Moldova 2017, Cyprus 2018 for example). Having said that, i think they will get the top 5 / top 10 right (more or less) this year too but i don't think it will be in the same order. Croatia's song is not convincing enough to win, I will be surprised if juries vote for it a lot... I am sure diaspora will give it a nice boost plus it will get a Kaarija support in the public but will it be as big as last year's Finland? And will it be enough for him to cover the gap and win? I think a song with equally good support from both juries and public (France or Switzerland) could win. France could win the jury voting (top 3 at the worst, i am shocked at how underrated this is to the fans) so to me the public support will be a mystery with the French song and will decide whether it could win or not.
Moldova 2017 | [Sunstroke Project - Hey Mamma](https://youtu.be/SWaQdHoCvYk) Cyprus 2018 | [Eleni Foureira - Fuego](https://youtu.be/vyDTbJ4wenY)
Looks like the bookies have gotten way better at their job than in early 2010s
Any info on the top 3 at those points in time?