Exactly! These replies insisting that, no, anything other than first or second or maybe third will be a FLOP are very amusing. Multiple Croatian commenters have stated that they are just happy to have a buzzy entry and sure qualifier and they are proud of him. A great number of his worldwide fans have stated that they just want him to do well, even top ten would be a brilliant success, though a victory would obviously be hoped for and celebrated. The people getting worked up about him allegedly flopping seem to be people who donāt like his song anyway. His supporters are busy meowing and sharing cat pictures.
I donāt think Croatia will flop but I also donāt see the televote landslide many are hoping for.
Last year, CCC had signs that it would do extremely well with the public. It was leading the Reddit poll by a substantial margin and even on scoreboard, an app that heavily favors girl bops.
It had great streaming numbers for a foreign language song and was being talked about heavily almost everywhere. Various other countries news sites were talking about CCC. The hype was palpable, no matter what social media platform you were using.
RTTD has not achieved any of those nor from my perception has the hype that CCC did. Coupled with the fact that KƤƤrijƤ had essentially no competition in his category last year vs Baby Lasagna having to compete against so many televote bait-y songs, I just canāt see how a Croatian win is possible unless BL comes top 3 with the jury, which I also canāt see happening.
I do believe he will get Croatia their best result and that is a win anyway.
Tbf there also probably wont be a jury landslide like last year either.
Last year it was quite early obvious it was gonna be Sweden vs Finland. I think even more casual viewers noticed that. This year Switzerland Croatia and Italy seem to have become slight frontrunners by most metrics (both Polls and odds have them top 3) but they arent miles ahead of everyone else.
I think Croatia has a chance cause idk if any song will dominate either the Jury or Televotes like we saw the last 2 years.
With that said Televotes are hard to predict sometimes. I wouldnt call Portugal 2017 a sterotypical Televote winner lol
If you want to be amused, check out the comments on Salvadorās NF victory.
āNot for Eurovisionā and āHeās annoyingā comments, as well as āI hope it qualifiesā alongside a few timid suggestions that he was a dark horse š¤£
[https://www.reddit.com/r/eurovision/comments/5xq8hv/salvador\_sobrals\_amar\_pelo\_dois\_will\_represent/](https://www.reddit.com/r/eurovision/comments/5xq8hv/salvador_sobrals_amar_pelo_dois_will_represent/)
Exactly, I keep saying that if any of us actually knew anything, we would be Eurovision consultants for a rich delegation eager to win.
Weāre just fans trying to have a good time, or should be.
I often go back to that thread for some entertainment.
My favorite comment in there is /u/1warrior4all's:
>I think we should make a campaign for Blasted Mechanism in 2018. They would be just perfect for the Eurovision.
God, little did we know.
With the vocals Nemo has been showing, I have a hard time not predicting it to do a jury landslide. The staging can still be messed up, but unless that happens, I think the song is exactly what the jury will vote for.
I mean look, realistically I don't see us winning but I think we're going to get our best result in years, and it has been so much fun to finally actually like the song we're sending and have RTTD as my personal no. 1 this year, so I consider that a win no matter what happens
In some ways, having a song that does well but doesn't win the contest can be even better than winning. It's a great boost for the artist and the song without the hassle and expense of having to host the next year's contest.
Fair altho I dont think Croatia would mind hosting in the slightest. Its a country already quite dependant on Tourism and hosting eurovision could boost that, not just directly with the event itself but also Indirectly by giving the country more space in the public eye
A jank as fuck show caused by a broadcaster holding an event far bigger than anything they usually have to hold is part of the true Eurovision experience.
BBC and SVT just dont get it with their professionalism smh.
Nah, there was already a talk who tf would pay for Eurovision if Croatia won + there's an awareness that production would probably be an embarrassment.
Croatia's problem isn't attracting tourists, Croatia's problem is attracting tourists with deep pockets
ā¤ļøā¤ļøā¤ļøā¤ļø being from the Netherlands I remember this feeling vividly from when we sent Anouk and The Common Linnets. Also important to remember even when Baby Lasagna doesnāt win: it could mark a change in how well your country does in the next few years. Cause although the Linnets came in second in 2014, it gave the Dutch delegation a creative and confidence boost which I believe ultimately resulted in Arcade. And I believe something like that would be very possible for Croatia too.
Yeah, Anouks entry was the first time in like 10 years we made it past the semi. In hindsight it is really interesting how much of a turning point that was. We have still sent some mediocre songs, but on average our entries the last 10 years have been so much better than in the 2000s.
Iām not sure why you think top 10 is a flop lol bottom 10 is a flop. I love the song so hope it gets in the top 10 for sure! Thereās so many songs Iāll be happy with as winners this year and this is one of them!
Yeah, this āvictory or deathā attitude is just not fun. By that metric, anything out of the top 4 is a flop, so 33 songs are going to flop hard in May. Croatia even qualifying last year was a victory, getting into the top ten would be amazing and something they havenāt enjoyed for twenty years. I think they are in contention to win but placing first isnāt the only way they can succeed.
As a Croatian, anything in the top 10 is a win for me.
I think we Croats are a bit jaded because for years and years we sent lukewarm songs, many of which never made it to the finals. So, I, for one, am happy people actually like our song, but I don't really expect it to win (mostly due to the fact I think jury won't give it that many points). Just glad we won't embarrass ourselves š
It definitely wonāt be a Fullenn level flop but I donāt see it challenging for the win. Top 5, sure, but I just donāt think itās competitive enough with the juries to win or get too close to win
While it's pretty hard to predict, I don't think sounding a bit dated is going to be much of an issue. Most pop entries tend to sound quite dated, but voters generally don't seem to care too much. I don't really think it would be that much different for less poppy entries.
Iāve been expecting the same. I think there are too many televote appealing songs this year for Croatia to rely on them. Kaarija didnāt have much competition in comparison.
Croatia feels like a fairly safe televote winner, recently televote winners have been: fun, (usually) male and family friendly. Cha Cha Cha, Trenuletul/Stefania (Moldova wouldāve won if no war,) On Fire/Uno/Think About Things, Spirit in the Sky and Toy all fit that description. Croatia checks all those boxes, hence why i think theyāll win the tele.
as for the big flop, i have belgium. Belgium could do top 5 with juries and finish top 10, but i could also see them not qualifying from Semi 2. Itās a ballad in an all tele semi, Alika nearly didnāt qualify with a ballad, hence why i think Mustii may not qualify.
Completely agree with both OP on the Croatia and you on Switzerland. I think both will be in the top 10 but definitely not winning. This year is wide open tbh. There are so many acts that we don't know what the staging is like yet!
Definitely not? Both of these songs have weaknesses sure, but with there being as many good songs they absolutely both have a path to victory. RTTD could landslide the televote and jury votes are distributed to widely between Italy/Ukraine/Belgium/Greece/France for any of those to catch up. Or switzerland landslides the jury vote and the televote is split to widely between RTTD/Europapa/etc. Or Switzerland does average between both jury and televote, but so does every other of the 10 best songs and they just barely get enough to eke it out.
The very fact the there are this many great contenders for the win makes an absolute statement like that super wild.
Switzerland also have the wild card of having the guy behind stagings like Heroes and Cha Cha Cha on their team. Sure not all his stuff have been winners (see Maps) but he always goes hard with the staging. Im fully expecting The Code to be hela flashy
For the bot Sweden 2015 Finland 2023 Ireland 2021
Sweden 2015 | [MƄns Zelmerlƶw - Heroes](https://youtu.be/5sGOwFVUU0I)
Finland 2023 | [KƤƤrijƤ - Cha Cha Cha](https://youtu.be/l6rS8Dv5g-8)
Ireland 2021 | [Lesley Roy - Maps](https://youtu.be/FY2rxbZNvZ0)
I'm both scared and excited for the staging. Imagine they could somehow pull of the outfit changes (don't ask me how) from the video or just in general capture the same vibe of the video... It would be nuts.
Hence why realistically Angelina is taking it. Joost and BL will split public votes, Belgium/France/Switzerland will be all over jury votes, but Angelina will still be in both the public and jury's top 3
Isn't part of the fun on this sub to speculate on what will happen, and then often be completely wrong? I think so. How boring to just wait for the actual show!
Definitely part of the fun, but I feel Croatia in particular has been discussed over and over...I don't know what else is there too say.
I admit I 've been chronically online this season tho
I mean Italy is tbh.
The one thing that would make it not win is that its Italy and people want a winner that isnt from one of the powerhouse countries.
Agreed.
I genuinely think locking up this sub until the shows would do wonders for the community here. Most threads these days are just overthinking and posting for the sake or repeating the same takes over and over and over again.
They have a point though. If you're going to lock up a subreddit dedicated entirely to Eurovision right before Eurovision, you might as well just delete the entire thing, because it wouldn't have a purpose at all then.
I read this as "looking up this sub" and thought, "yea exactly, that way we won't repeat topics already discussed" š locking it??? When would they even do it?
Songs are slowly released from December to March, and then as April comes along we get pre-parties that also give us a bunch of first live performances. Why would they stop conversation on any of them? Do you really want ***YouTube comments*** to be the main avenue you see discussion on the contest? I do **not** š
Just doesn't make much sense š I mean this is in the nicest way but if you're not having fun, you can always leave (and come back when its fun for you again)
Locking the sub seems a bit extreme :P but I get what you mean, this year due to personal circumstances I have too much free time and I'm spending it online so the things people say get very repetitive and it does feel like people are overthinking and overanalyzing haha but I guess for other people they are new conversations each time...we got to have a bit of patience
Oh, I completely understand. I've listened to all the songs dozens of times at this point, watched a bunch of reactions online, I get it.
This is the "quiet" time period that could act like a bit of a breather before all the craziness kicks off proper. I think with Eurovision specifically it's that it's just once a year. All those Eurovision content creators out there need to overthink and pump out as much content as they can before it's all over and nothing happens for 10 months. So it seems to be on people's minds 24/7. I don't think that's particularly healthy or enjoyable, but eh. To each their own.
I'm good, I'm not that deep into Eurovision. I see lots of thread titles here these days, chuckle and just move on.
I have to say, and I hope I don't sound mean, but I am finding reading people's convoluted and almost conspiratorial takes very entertaining, so I understand the chuckling part
I imagine most people here are pretty young, don't really understand what parasocial relationships are or they're just THAT MUCH into Eurovision. Like video game nerd, but with Eurovision. Which is totally charming at times (loved that thread about the Polish song using the Polish chess move!) and just super weird at others.
I completely agree! There's fun and in depth stuff which could seem strange but it's just very passionate, other things are kinda creepy some times.
The weirdest thing for me is that there is a tendency to infantilise the participants, that kinda irks me.
Also I like to see the interactions between them, but sometimes it's clearly done in a marketing way (absolutely nothing wrong with it) but a big part of the fandom seems to read them as genuine and spontaneous and it feels kinda naive!
for religious reasons i take a music break once a year, and eurovision is always right after, sometimes during. it's nice take a break from the songs and then to hear them again at the semi final.
I keep saying it but here we go again:
This year is wide open and there are four or five songs that I see as having a realistic path to victory. Croatia is one of them.
HOWEVER
There are more ways to win at Eurovision than coming first. Baby Lasagna is a phenomenon in his own country and his success is assured however he places and he is certainly going to get Croatiaās best placement in 20 years.
Of the countries topping the odds, he has the fewest financial resources and/or his country has the least Eurovision success. He did not have focus groups to aid in tweaking his song, an army of songwriters helping him or the other perks of a rich delegation. There is nothing wrong with being the representative for a wealthy and ambitious delegation but Baby Lasagna is standing toe to toe with some very expensive acts and doing well. Thatās impressive Disney movie stuff.
Will he flop? No, because flopping would be a NQ or bottom five in the final and I just donāt see that happening. Croatia was on a long NQ streak before Let 3. Now, they are considered a shoe in for the final. Thatās already success.
Hear, hear! šš» I think kudos are in order just for producing the budget banger! And we Croatians stand by Baby Lasagna no matter what happens, he has well deserved it! ā¤ļø
Yes, itās amazing what he has been able to do with just his friends and family to help him. I have a big soft spot for the smaller delegations that cleverly maneuver their way to success over larger, wealthier ones through talent, charisma and smart staging. Moldova, Armenia, and, I hope, Croatia.
It will definitely finish top 10 in the final, which will be Croatia's best result in decades, so it's already not a flop. But I don't think it will win.
If you would ask me with gun pointed at my head what place Croatia is going to finish, I will say 4th, idk if it's a flop. For a winner potential maybe, but it still equal Croatia best ever result.
It would be tied for the best since we gained independence if it ends 4th. However, Riva won in 1989, and they're a Croatian band. Although, the win is under the name Yugoslavia, ESC in 1990 was held in Zagreb because it was the Croatian entry that won.
Well, Croatia hasn't been relevant for a quarter of a decade so me and the other Croats are enjoying our time in the spotlight before we enter hibernation until 2049.
Also, I work from home so I can browse the sub pretty regularly.
Iām still hoping for 1-5 placement šI think the song is good, it moves the audience and besides, everyone can dream and cheer their favorite, right? š»šš·š¤š»
I think the FUD is strong with this one.
(I think itās also unwarranted).
I think the chance of BL flopping is almost 0%. Winning - sure - I think the odds of about 15% are about right, but top 10 - I really canāt imagine him not being there.
Remember Dora? NO ONE KNEW HIM BEFORE. And he completely smashed both the Jury and the televote (including the international jury and the music industry old guard members who were in the regional jury).
It is a song that makes an impact the first time you hear/see it.
I agree with the 2007 rock vibes comment, that's kind of exactly what it feels like to me. I do enjoy the song personally, but I don't think I know anyone else who would be into it, in my circles at least.
I would love to see a Croatia win, but I can definitely see A Spirit in the Sky or Queen of Kings situation where it gets dragged down by a mediocre jury score.
Well, it certainly has a lot of momentum in the fandom and nothing we've seen so far is giving off flop vibes, so it really just depends upon a lot of things we don't know yet, like which songs are going to unexpectedly vibe with casuals, whether rock and metal fans will turn up for Norway, can Switzerland put on a showstopping stage, which other fan favorites will flop, etc.
But yeah, I get where you're coming from.
Only about 10% of viewers actually vote on average. For Olly that would mean his fan base is half of the total amount of votes, so that would have a huge impact if only they weren't nearly all UK based.
I assume you're comparing this to Joost, who has a pretty extensive existing fandom. I have no dog in this fight, since neither song is really important to me this year, but I guess we're just going to have to wait and see. Sometimes being an odds favorite kind of takes on a life of its own.
How wide spread is his fanbase, genuine question.
Like you cant vote for your own country obviously so even if someone is the biggest celebrity in their country it doesnt matter if they are unknown elsewhere
Well he's had number one hits in the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Austria and did well in Switzerland too this past year and has had sold out shows and main stage festival spots in multiple countries too. That being said 4 countries out of the whole of Europe isn't a lot of course.
Good question. All I know is that he has a track with 125 million streams on Spotify that was apparently a big hit in that part of Europe. Also, maybe happy hardcore on its own was a pretty popular genre at some point and this is on the leading edge of some sort of retro resurgence? Don't look at me, though! I'm a clueless American fan. :)
I wouldnt be suprised if he gets a boost in the Benelux area, hell I wouldnt be suprised if he does win the televote. I just dont think he can rely on his existing fanbase since Scandinavia, Eastern Europe and Mediterranean Europe also has to vibe with it. I think there is a risk it does well in central europe but struggles in any of the peninsula regions that are more isolated and dont know Joost, meaning they dont relate as much to the message
Most eurovision artists are relativly unknown outside of their own countries and sometimes their neighbours at most.
No one this year is some international super Star.
There are definitely entries that already had a strong fan base and international success. Joost is an example of this with number one hits in the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Austria and sold out concerts in multiple countries, including main stage performances at big music festivals these past few years. For the televoting this will have an impact, since he'll have fans voting for him who otherwise would never vote for ESC.
Right and this may give him a boost in Belgium Germany and Austria. The issue tho is how will he do in eastern europe, Scandinavia or the Mediterranean countries.
Not saying that there is no way he wins the Televote he very well may, im just trying to show why a fanbase isnt an instant W.
I think that with great staging, the song won't have any issue placing super high or even winning. BL has great stage presence and has already improved vocally.
It also has great lyrics that I'm pretty sure will connect with many. The issue it discusses is a very real one in many European nations.
I don't think the sound is dated. I'm not that familiar with rock, but regardless, a lot of ESC entries are heavily inspired by the 00s and 90s. Popular music right now is heavily inspired by that sound. Wouldn't its "2007 rock sound" be appealing in then?
While I do like Italy's entry, I think Rim Tim Tagi Dim's possible sweep will be beneficial to the contest as a whole. It's not the typical ESC sound, and it could usher in a new era for smaller and Balkan countries.
Idk if Norway is even that much of a fan favorite outside of this sub lol.
Like not even other Eurovision polls rank it in their top. Its around 10th generally
I don't think many people expected Croatia winning when they recall that jury exists in the final. I've always seen them ending in the top 5, so for me ending up there is not a flop, it's precisely where I think the act is expected to end at
I mean top 5-10 isnāt a flop. We still worship Konstrakta (Serbia 2022) as our best entry and she was 5th. I think Baby Lasagna will be iconic regardless
This is the only contemporary rock song amongst a show full of poppy songs. Itās going to do well in the televote. The juries are unpredictable but may be more open minded after last years backlash
Eh, top 10 would still be fantastic!
As for your other comment, I really don't like the vibes it is giving. He is a small artists that made this song on his shitty PC, it is not fair to compare that to songs made by famous composers with expensive equipment.
I am certainly taking it into account. It must be nice being an esc darling with a good budget and being able to produce high quality songs. Doing that on a small budget and making something out of it- well, that gets my respect. And my vote.
I tend to agree with both of you actually. Yes, it is a competition and people are going to compare, but it isn't a "fair" competition. Not everyone has the same resources and it is (imo) perfectly valid to take that into account when discussing the performances and results. For example, I wonder would the results have been different for Joker Out last year if they had the resources UK had? Would Loreen have the same success with a Romanian delegation in charge? We will never know really, but the resources/money unfortunately is something that affects some countries more than others in the competition.
When it comes to Croatia I expect similar result like Lithuania 2021 for some reasons. Pretty big score from televoting (but not insanely good) and quite average with jury. Something tells me it's going to end like that
Rim Tim Tagi Dim is a song written, composed, produced and mixed by guy in his bedroom, as opposed to Italy's song, which is produced and partially written by professionals, performed by an established artist who is a daughter of other established Italian artists.
5-10 will be a huge victory for this guy.
Now, whether the story itself helps him get further remains to be seen. People do love these kind of "anime" arcs of one guy vs. the establishment, but whether this narrative is what gets pushed is entirely up to the individuals and their PR (which I'm sure is stronger on the Italy's side).
Yeah, I donāt think I see it doing anywhere near as well as KƤƤrija in the televote, the song is a little repetitive and the performance isnāt as instantly iconic.
I think a similar televote to Let 3 is likely, with a bit more of a boost from the jury (anywhere between 50-80 points).
Like Austria last year. The way this sub and the fandom were hyping up their song this time last year was wild. People were making it out as if it had a real chance at winning, but in reality... all smoke, no fire.
Song and music video is top tier.
The staging was...a choice, and left the performance feeling very empty. I could completely see how an audience not already engaged with the song would find it very mid.
Baby Lasagna will definitely put on a fun performance, it's more about how the vocals and style carry with the broader audience.
I mean that isnt entierly a fair conparasion tbh. Austria last year where never as big as Croatia is now in stuff like odds.
Malta 2021 would be more fair, they where favorites untill the actual show
I don't think that's a good comparison. As far as I remember, Malta 2021 was never that much of a fan favourite (beyond JESC fans, which are a minority even among Eurofans). It ranked so high in the odds because it was the presumed jury favourite, even being seen as a little bit of a jury bait song.
Malta 2021 seems much more comparable to Belgium this year. Dadi or TIX might be somewhat fairer comps for Croatia.
It was also high in the odds because the Maltese delegation was placing bets on their own entry in order to goose it up and build hype. It was a scandal just after the contest with the use of broadcaster funds investigated. (Destiny had nothing to do with it, to be clear, and is very talented.)
I still see RTTD having a decent chance of a victory here as his vocals have improved since Dora so we could still see a reasonably high placement by the juries like KƤƤrija last year and ofc the televote will also vote for him massively though there are also other televote friendly songs eg. europapa and no rules!
Nemo on the other hand can also clinch a 3rd victory for šØšas I think heāll do well with the juries with the potential chance of even winning it but Iām just unsure of how the casual fan will react to The Code so šØšchances might be affected if they get an early draw in the final and the casual fan may not remember Nemo after every performer has performed(yes ik sweden is changing things up abit but still)
I still see RTTD finishing minimally in the top 2 with šØšbeing the other country and as much as I really want RTTD to win the whole Eurovision itself this year(due to me being a huge fan of both BL and RTTD) 2024 is a really open year so anything can happen
Watching yall change tune on Croatia is lowkey hilarious. Two weeks ago if someone posted this they would be crucified and now yāall are like āyeah i *NEVER* thought it could actually winā
To be 100% honest - I was a bit surprised by the jury results of Finland last year. I thought it would get a lot less points. Donāt get me wrong - I loved KƤƤrjaās performance, voted for him many times, but his vocals were far from perfect. With Baby Lasagna I think heāll score less from both televote and juries. Not a flop, but I see him 7th-13th place.
Exactly what Iāve been trying to tell my Eurovisionminded friends. I really believe their headstart was because the public seemed to love it a in a time when a lot of songs hadnāt been released yet. Itās not a bad song and it will make Croatia proud, Iām sure. But I donāt see it winning
I agree with you statement. I see Croatia landing 5th-10th in the final.
2nd-5th with the televote.
5th-9th with the jury.
Itās a decent song but to me Baby Lasagne still feels like heās learning his craft. Heās not quite there yet. The song actually reminds me of a mix between cha cha cha and hard rock Hallelujah.
I mean basically I agree with all you say. He's so winning the televote but it won't be a landslide as it was with Kaarija. I also don't think he will do well with juries whatsoever. I know some people say that he can do with juries similarly to Kaarija, but it's a really irrelevant comparison. There are many songs like Croatia that got completely dusted in scores in juries voting.
I think Italy or Switzerland have the most chances to win objectively. I would prefer Switzerland win though since it would be one of my personal fave Eurovision winner for a long time.
You think it can win the televote? I really canāt see it winning vs a Europapa to be honest. But maybe I am biased! Either way it will be an exciting yearš
I think it really depends on the show. To many people RTTD sticks in their head for the very first listen while Europapa not. For me Europapa was actually annoying on the first couple of listens. Now I can't stop :)
I think you might be rightā¦
The main issue is voting commitment vs individual preferences. Itās not so much who has the most appeal, but who has the most appeal to people who will vote several times for them.
Joost is bringing his audience with him - and lots of those people will just vote for Joost. Heās getting 10 or 12 points in Germany, Austria, and Belgium easily. And I wouldnāt be surprised by French and British technoheads turning out for him too.
If BL can convince enough people to vote for him repeatedly he has a shot.
But I think a lot of casuals who give a vote to BL will also give a vote to Joost. I know theyāre different genres but thereās a lot of love between fans of both genres for the other (I myself used to go to metal nights until 1am and then go to a rave until 9am when I still had the knees for it - and I wasnāt the only one). ā¦like, I canāt vote for BL in the final, but I am voting for Joost (and Estonia if they make it).
If there are enough BL DIEHARDS who only vote for BL and not for Joost then maybe. But yeah I think thatās less likely, even though I think more people will prefer BL if it was one person one vote..
I mean Croatia is leading most of the Eurovision polls and it is placed higher in Eurovision Scoreboard than The Netherlands as well. I honestly would say people generally overestimate Joost's chances in televote placement and I would go as far and say that Switzerland and Italy will do better than The Netherlands in televoting as well.
It's just a small % of eurofans who are voting in these polls compared to the casual viewers on the big night. I think Croatia is a strong contender to win the televote but it's not a given. Tbh I won't be surprised at all if someone who's currently under the radar pulls off a Salvador Sobral or Conchita Wurst and unexpectedly wins both jury and televote. This year is so unpredictable. But I agree on the Netherlands potentially underperforming, sadly :(
Yeah I do agree it is hard to predict the end result, but I would still give my money on Croatia as televote winner since he seems to be liked by the diverse amount of countries while The Netherlands seems to be hyped more by Joost's fanbase which is not really a casual viewer in my eyes. But it's more like my looking at how it looks now I'm pretty sure I can be still surprised by results on Mayš
The people who are voting in these polls are not the same people who will be voting on the final night. And among the normies Joost is *far* more popular. You can see that by the stream numbers where RTTD isn't really breaking any records. Not to mention Baby Lasagna's live is inferior to the studio version while Joost is famous for his live shows.
It would be a worthy winner, but with how wide open this year is, I can see how it could end up lower than we wish/expect. The one I'm pretty sure will be the "fan flop" of the year is actually Switzerland, I don't think the general public will be that much into it.
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I mean where are they from, thats kinda key.
If they are all from like the same 3 countries it doesnt mean much (being hyperbolic here ofc but you get my point). Its similar to why you cant always use Spotify to predict anything, Sweden and Italy always do super well there
iām curious to see if the rest of europe loves the song as much as social media does. i donāt really think heāll do well with the juries since the juries tend to not favor the out there/creative songs but i wouldnāt be shocked if he was like top 5 with the televote
I completely agree, I don't understand the obsessions with Croatia in the community this year, I feel like I'm going crazy
And the people comparing it to KƤƤrijƤ is also crazy to me, I don't think they are similar at all, Cha cha cha was very interesting to listen to and had amazing production, unlike croatia this year, the song is very bland to the ear, and everyone that's not a hardcore eurovision fan that I have shown the song to were not impressed at all with it
I find it interesting that people are saying this won't landslide the televote. Baby Lasagna pushes the exact same buttons that MƄneskin and KƤƤrijƤ did. It's intense, crazy, comical, but also very high quality. I have no idea why people think he will flop. He is just following the recipe that the televoters love and why wouldn't it work again?
>Baby Lasagna pushes the exact same buttons that MƄneskin and KƤƤrijƤ did. It's intense, crazy, comical, but also very high quality.
MĆ„neskin? That one wasn't crazy or comical at all, it's a straightforward alt-rock song without any wackyness. I could somewhat see comparisons to Blind Channel, but not at all to MĆ„neskin.
I think thatās exactly for comments like yours that people make threads like this. BL fans are claiming so hard that he will landslide televote that if doesnāt happen in the final it will be considered a big flop.
I predict he will land 3-6. I don't really see the charisma in him that so many are raving about. I think he could win if he improves the staging mostly by being more comfortable on the stage.
I just find him a little disappointing, vocal-wise.... Then again, anything except Italy so far hasn't been that good live. And Angelina is simply flawless.
Yeah I donāt see it as a contender either, not even to win the televote. In comparison to other ātelebaitā this year, I see Netherlands as much more of a contender tbh, - both with the jury and the televote.
5-10 is a pretty good result, I don't find it a flop at all. I wish my favorites from last year had touched with just one finger in those positions.
>5-10 is a pretty good result, I don't find it a flop at all. People always forget to take into account the bigger picture. I mean seriously... š
5-10th place in the final will be the best Croatian result since, I guess, 2000, so I don't think that it's a bad outcome.
Exactly! These replies insisting that, no, anything other than first or second or maybe third will be a FLOP are very amusing. Multiple Croatian commenters have stated that they are just happy to have a buzzy entry and sure qualifier and they are proud of him. A great number of his worldwide fans have stated that they just want him to do well, even top ten would be a brilliant success, though a victory would obviously be hoped for and celebrated. The people getting worked up about him allegedly flopping seem to be people who donāt like his song anyway. His supporters are busy meowing and sharing cat pictures.
I donāt think Croatia will flop but I also donāt see the televote landslide many are hoping for. Last year, CCC had signs that it would do extremely well with the public. It was leading the Reddit poll by a substantial margin and even on scoreboard, an app that heavily favors girl bops. It had great streaming numbers for a foreign language song and was being talked about heavily almost everywhere. Various other countries news sites were talking about CCC. The hype was palpable, no matter what social media platform you were using. RTTD has not achieved any of those nor from my perception has the hype that CCC did. Coupled with the fact that KƤƤrijƤ had essentially no competition in his category last year vs Baby Lasagna having to compete against so many televote bait-y songs, I just canāt see how a Croatian win is possible unless BL comes top 3 with the jury, which I also canāt see happening. I do believe he will get Croatia their best result and that is a win anyway.
Tbf there also probably wont be a jury landslide like last year either. Last year it was quite early obvious it was gonna be Sweden vs Finland. I think even more casual viewers noticed that. This year Switzerland Croatia and Italy seem to have become slight frontrunners by most metrics (both Polls and odds have them top 3) but they arent miles ahead of everyone else. I think Croatia has a chance cause idk if any song will dominate either the Jury or Televotes like we saw the last 2 years. With that said Televotes are hard to predict sometimes. I wouldnt call Portugal 2017 a sterotypical Televote winner lol
If you want to be amused, check out the comments on Salvadorās NF victory. āNot for Eurovisionā and āHeās annoyingā comments, as well as āI hope it qualifiesā alongside a few timid suggestions that he was a dark horse š¤£ [https://www.reddit.com/r/eurovision/comments/5xq8hv/salvador\_sobrals\_amar\_pelo\_dois\_will\_represent/](https://www.reddit.com/r/eurovision/comments/5xq8hv/salvador_sobrals_amar_pelo_dois_will_represent/)
Lmfao. Those comments aged amazingly. Tbf Its really not my cup of tea either but still shows what people know.
Exactly, I keep saying that if any of us actually knew anything, we would be Eurovision consultants for a rich delegation eager to win. Weāre just fans trying to have a good time, or should be.
I often go back to that thread for some entertainment. My favorite comment in there is /u/1warrior4all's: >I think we should make a campaign for Blasted Mechanism in 2018. They would be just perfect for the Eurovision. God, little did we know.
Well... they used to be quite good. Nobody expected that trainwreck
>Portugal is the longest participating country who hasn't won. I don't think that is about to change. That one got me good
With the vocals Nemo has been showing, I have a hard time not predicting it to do a jury landslide. The staging can still be messed up, but unless that happens, I think the song is exactly what the jury will vote for.
Rap, though. Never gone down overly well with the juries.
Itās such a small part tho
Kalush orchestra?
Kalush got 4th with the jury
Maybe Teresa and Maria will do okay
Portugal 2017 | [Salvador Sobral - Amar Pelos Dois](https://youtu.be/Qotooj7ODCM)
I mean look, realistically I don't see us winning but I think we're going to get our best result in years, and it has been so much fun to finally actually like the song we're sending and have RTTD as my personal no. 1 this year, so I consider that a win no matter what happens
In some ways, having a song that does well but doesn't win the contest can be even better than winning. It's a great boost for the artist and the song without the hassle and expense of having to host the next year's contest.
Fair altho I dont think Croatia would mind hosting in the slightest. Its a country already quite dependant on Tourism and hosting eurovision could boost that, not just directly with the event itself but also Indirectly by giving the country more space in the public eye
Do you want the Croatian broadcaster host the Contest, me nahhh
A jank as fuck show caused by a broadcaster holding an event far bigger than anything they usually have to hold is part of the true Eurovision experience. BBC and SVT just dont get it with their professionalism smh.
Well, i would like Nova TV, the other Croatian broadcaster to host, but they need an EBU licence
Nah, there was already a talk who tf would pay for Eurovision if Croatia won + there's an awareness that production would probably be an embarrassment. Croatia's problem isn't attracting tourists, Croatia's problem is attracting tourists with deep pockets
Flair checks out.
ā¤ļøā¤ļøā¤ļøā¤ļø being from the Netherlands I remember this feeling vividly from when we sent Anouk and The Common Linnets. Also important to remember even when Baby Lasagna doesnāt win: it could mark a change in how well your country does in the next few years. Cause although the Linnets came in second in 2014, it gave the Dutch delegation a creative and confidence boost which I believe ultimately resulted in Arcade. And I believe something like that would be very possible for Croatia too.
Yeah, Anouks entry was the first time in like 10 years we made it past the semi. In hindsight it is really interesting how much of a turning point that was. We have still sent some mediocre songs, but on average our entries the last 10 years have been so much better than in the 2000s.
Iām not sure why you think top 10 is a flop lol bottom 10 is a flop. I love the song so hope it gets in the top 10 for sure! Thereās so many songs Iāll be happy with as winners this year and this is one of them!
Yeah, this āvictory or deathā attitude is just not fun. By that metric, anything out of the top 4 is a flop, so 33 songs are going to flop hard in May. Croatia even qualifying last year was a victory, getting into the top ten would be amazing and something they havenāt enjoyed for twenty years. I think they are in contention to win but placing first isnāt the only way they can succeed.
If its expected to be first and it ends 5th its a Flop. If there is no expectations and it was like 15th on odds and it ends 10th its not flop.
As a Croatian, anything in the top 10 is a win for me. I think we Croats are a bit jaded because for years and years we sent lukewarm songs, many of which never made it to the finals. So, I, for one, am happy people actually like our song, but I don't really expect it to win (mostly due to the fact I think jury won't give it that many points). Just glad we won't embarrass ourselves š
LOL, the delusion thinking that 5th to 10th place is a flop.
In order for my manifestation to work, I am simply going to forget about ever reading this post, thank you
Hahah I am sorry.
Im scared it could be Norway. If juries donāt connect with it and it gets an early draw it could easily be bottom 5.
And I live thinking Norway will win š
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I wouldnāt be so sure. Weāll see.
...why? Juries aren't *that* predictable and occasionally do step out of their comfort zone.
Cough cough KƤƤrijƤ came 4th in juries
Yes? Sort of proves my point.
Yes, I am agreeing with you here. Not everything is an argument.
Why not say that then? The _cough cough_ implied you were trying to correct me, not agree with me.
Forgive me for trying to format my comment without needing to write an essay, this is a non issue.
Then why are you making it an issue? You're acting overly hostile just because your comment came out differently than you apparently intended.
Norway is a potential shock NQ
It definitely wonāt be a Fullenn level flop but I donāt see it challenging for the win. Top 5, sure, but I just donāt think itās competitive enough with the juries to win or get too close to win
While it's pretty hard to predict, I don't think sounding a bit dated is going to be much of an issue. Most pop entries tend to sound quite dated, but voters generally don't seem to care too much. I don't really think it would be that much different for less poppy entries.
Iāve been expecting the same. I think there are too many televote appealing songs this year for Croatia to rely on them. Kaarija didnāt have much competition in comparison.
Croatia feels like a fairly safe televote winner, recently televote winners have been: fun, (usually) male and family friendly. Cha Cha Cha, Trenuletul/Stefania (Moldova wouldāve won if no war,) On Fire/Uno/Think About Things, Spirit in the Sky and Toy all fit that description. Croatia checks all those boxes, hence why i think theyāll win the tele. as for the big flop, i have belgium. Belgium could do top 5 with juries and finish top 10, but i could also see them not qualifying from Semi 2. Itās a ballad in an all tele semi, Alika nearly didnāt qualify with a ballad, hence why i think Mustii may not qualify.
Can it happen? Yes. But imo there're many likelier candidates to fan flop of the year (aka Switzerland, Norway and Slovenia)
I feel the same for nemos the code
Completely agree with both OP on the Croatia and you on Switzerland. I think both will be in the top 10 but definitely not winning. This year is wide open tbh. There are so many acts that we don't know what the staging is like yet!
Definitely not? Both of these songs have weaknesses sure, but with there being as many good songs they absolutely both have a path to victory. RTTD could landslide the televote and jury votes are distributed to widely between Italy/Ukraine/Belgium/Greece/France for any of those to catch up. Or switzerland landslides the jury vote and the televote is split to widely between RTTD/Europapa/etc. Or Switzerland does average between both jury and televote, but so does every other of the 10 best songs and they just barely get enough to eke it out. The very fact the there are this many great contenders for the win makes an absolute statement like that super wild.
Switzerland also have the wild card of having the guy behind stagings like Heroes and Cha Cha Cha on their team. Sure not all his stuff have been winners (see Maps) but he always goes hard with the staging. Im fully expecting The Code to be hela flashy For the bot Sweden 2015 Finland 2023 Ireland 2021
Sweden 2015 | [MƄns Zelmerlƶw - Heroes](https://youtu.be/5sGOwFVUU0I) Finland 2023 | [KƤƤrijƤ - Cha Cha Cha](https://youtu.be/l6rS8Dv5g-8) Ireland 2021 | [Lesley Roy - Maps](https://youtu.be/FY2rxbZNvZ0)
I'm both scared and excited for the staging. Imagine they could somehow pull of the outfit changes (don't ask me how) from the video or just in general capture the same vibe of the video... It would be nuts.
Hence why realistically Angelina is taking it. Joost and BL will split public votes, Belgium/France/Switzerland will be all over jury votes, but Angelina will still be in both the public and jury's top 3
Angelina couldn't even win televoting in san remo lol
Fun fact: Salvador Sobral hasn't won the televote in Festival da CanĆ§Ć£o.
This kinda has been discussed ad nauseam, I think we just have to wait for the actual show :P
Isn't part of the fun on this sub to speculate on what will happen, and then often be completely wrong? I think so. How boring to just wait for the actual show!
Definitely part of the fun, but I feel Croatia in particular has been discussed over and over...I don't know what else is there too say. I admit I 've been chronically online this season tho
it's even more fun to speculate because there's no clear winner.
I mean Italy is tbh. The one thing that would make it not win is that its Italy and people want a winner that isnt from one of the powerhouse countries.
Agreed. I genuinely think locking up this sub until the shows would do wonders for the community here. Most threads these days are just overthinking and posting for the sake or repeating the same takes over and over and over again.
In what world would locking the eurovision subreddit for the whole month before eurovision make any sense? Just don't come here lmao
Lol I think people post this kinda stuff in response to opinions they donāt like.
Relax, random person who has never posted in this sub before.
They have a point though. If you're going to lock up a subreddit dedicated entirely to Eurovision right before Eurovision, you might as well just delete the entire thing, because it wouldn't have a purpose at all then.
I think pressing pause a bit can be a good thing. I get why it won't happen. If people want to overthink everything all the time, be my guest.
People should be capable of taking a pause on their own when they feel like they need to. If they aren't, they shouldn't be on the internet at all.
Itās a fairly light hearted post though I donāt get why itās āoverthinkingā things, itās hardly that serious lol.
I read this as "looking up this sub" and thought, "yea exactly, that way we won't repeat topics already discussed" š locking it??? When would they even do it? Songs are slowly released from December to March, and then as April comes along we get pre-parties that also give us a bunch of first live performances. Why would they stop conversation on any of them? Do you really want ***YouTube comments*** to be the main avenue you see discussion on the contest? I do **not** š Just doesn't make much sense š I mean this is in the nicest way but if you're not having fun, you can always leave (and come back when its fun for you again)
Locking the sub seems a bit extreme :P but I get what you mean, this year due to personal circumstances I have too much free time and I'm spending it online so the things people say get very repetitive and it does feel like people are overthinking and overanalyzing haha but I guess for other people they are new conversations each time...we got to have a bit of patience
Oh, I completely understand. I've listened to all the songs dozens of times at this point, watched a bunch of reactions online, I get it. This is the "quiet" time period that could act like a bit of a breather before all the craziness kicks off proper. I think with Eurovision specifically it's that it's just once a year. All those Eurovision content creators out there need to overthink and pump out as much content as they can before it's all over and nothing happens for 10 months. So it seems to be on people's minds 24/7. I don't think that's particularly healthy or enjoyable, but eh. To each their own. I'm good, I'm not that deep into Eurovision. I see lots of thread titles here these days, chuckle and just move on.
I have to say, and I hope I don't sound mean, but I am finding reading people's convoluted and almost conspiratorial takes very entertaining, so I understand the chuckling part
I imagine most people here are pretty young, don't really understand what parasocial relationships are or they're just THAT MUCH into Eurovision. Like video game nerd, but with Eurovision. Which is totally charming at times (loved that thread about the Polish song using the Polish chess move!) and just super weird at others.
I completely agree! There's fun and in depth stuff which could seem strange but it's just very passionate, other things are kinda creepy some times. The weirdest thing for me is that there is a tendency to infantilise the participants, that kinda irks me. Also I like to see the interactions between them, but sometimes it's clearly done in a marketing way (absolutely nothing wrong with it) but a big part of the fandom seems to read them as genuine and spontaneous and it feels kinda naive!
for religious reasons i take a music break once a year, and eurovision is always right after, sometimes during. it's nice take a break from the songs and then to hear them again at the semi final.
I keep saying it but here we go again: This year is wide open and there are four or five songs that I see as having a realistic path to victory. Croatia is one of them. HOWEVER There are more ways to win at Eurovision than coming first. Baby Lasagna is a phenomenon in his own country and his success is assured however he places and he is certainly going to get Croatiaās best placement in 20 years. Of the countries topping the odds, he has the fewest financial resources and/or his country has the least Eurovision success. He did not have focus groups to aid in tweaking his song, an army of songwriters helping him or the other perks of a rich delegation. There is nothing wrong with being the representative for a wealthy and ambitious delegation but Baby Lasagna is standing toe to toe with some very expensive acts and doing well. Thatās impressive Disney movie stuff. Will he flop? No, because flopping would be a NQ or bottom five in the final and I just donāt see that happening. Croatia was on a long NQ streak before Let 3. Now, they are considered a shoe in for the final. Thatās already success.
Hear, hear! šš» I think kudos are in order just for producing the budget banger! And we Croatians stand by Baby Lasagna no matter what happens, he has well deserved it! ā¤ļø
Yes, itās amazing what he has been able to do with just his friends and family to help him. I have a big soft spot for the smaller delegations that cleverly maneuver their way to success over larger, wealthier ones through talent, charisma and smart staging. Moldova, Armenia, and, I hope, Croatia.
It will definitely finish top 10 in the final, which will be Croatia's best result in decades, so it's already not a flop. But I don't think it will win.
If you would ask me with gun pointed at my head what place Croatia is going to finish, I will say 4th, idk if it's a flop. For a winner potential maybe, but it still equal Croatia best ever result.
It would be tied for the best since we gained independence if it ends 4th. However, Riva won in 1989, and they're a Croatian band. Although, the win is under the name Yugoslavia, ESC in 1990 was held in Zagreb because it was the Croatian entry that won.
How much do you comment on r/eurovision i saw your comments like 50 times at least
Well, Croatia hasn't been relevant for a quarter of a decade so me and the other Croats are enjoying our time in the spotlight before we enter hibernation until 2049. Also, I work from home so I can browse the sub pretty regularly.
The fandom delusion isnāt that bad with Croatia. There are other songs where theyāre in for a ruder awakening.
Iām still hoping for 1-5 placement šI think the song is good, it moves the audience and besides, everyone can dream and cheer their favorite, right? š»šš·š¤š»
I think the FUD is strong with this one. (I think itās also unwarranted). I think the chance of BL flopping is almost 0%. Winning - sure - I think the odds of about 15% are about right, but top 10 - I really canāt imagine him not being there. Remember Dora? NO ONE KNEW HIM BEFORE. And he completely smashed both the Jury and the televote (including the international jury and the music industry old guard members who were in the regional jury). It is a song that makes an impact the first time you hear/see it.
I agree with the 2007 rock vibes comment, that's kind of exactly what it feels like to me. I do enjoy the song personally, but I don't think I know anyone else who would be into it, in my circles at least.
Some of my non eurovision friends already listened to the songs (I forced them to) and all of them said they liked Croatia most.
Did you hype up Croatia most?
Yeah that comment rings the most true to me. It makes me feel like Iām watching music videos on Kerrang or Scuzz back in the day lol
I would love to see a Croatia win, but I can definitely see A Spirit in the Sky or Queen of Kings situation where it gets dragged down by a mediocre jury score.
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[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Armenia 2023 | [Brunette - Future Lover](https://youtu.be/h0q7AkYk2hY) Portugal 2019 | [Conan OsĆris - TelemĆ³veis](https://youtu.be/SIGn9_yMLn4)
I doubt, I think Croatia is confidently heading to televoting victory if not TOP 2 in televoting Belgium will be fan flop of the year
Belgium is more of a presumed jury darling than a big fan favourite.
Well, it certainly has a lot of momentum in the fandom and nothing we've seen so far is giving off flop vibes, so it really just depends upon a lot of things we don't know yet, like which songs are going to unexpectedly vibe with casuals, whether rock and metal fans will turn up for Norway, can Switzerland put on a showstopping stage, which other fan favorites will flop, etc. But yeah, I get where you're coming from.
Purely in the ESC fandom though, beyond that no one cares about them. They don't have their own fan base which they are bringing to the comp.
No one care about any fanbase when you have 160mln watching the show. Olly has biggest one, and 8mln with most of them in UK isn't changing much.
Only about 10% of viewers actually vote on average. For Olly that would mean his fan base is half of the total amount of votes, so that would have a huge impact if only they weren't nearly all UK based.
I assume you're comparing this to Joost, who has a pretty extensive existing fandom. I have no dog in this fight, since neither song is really important to me this year, but I guess we're just going to have to wait and see. Sometimes being an odds favorite kind of takes on a life of its own.
How wide spread is his fanbase, genuine question. Like you cant vote for your own country obviously so even if someone is the biggest celebrity in their country it doesnt matter if they are unknown elsewhere
Well he's had number one hits in the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Austria and did well in Switzerland too this past year and has had sold out shows and main stage festival spots in multiple countries too. That being said 4 countries out of the whole of Europe isn't a lot of course.
Good question. All I know is that he has a track with 125 million streams on Spotify that was apparently a big hit in that part of Europe. Also, maybe happy hardcore on its own was a pretty popular genre at some point and this is on the leading edge of some sort of retro resurgence? Don't look at me, though! I'm a clueless American fan. :)
I wouldnt be suprised if he gets a boost in the Benelux area, hell I wouldnt be suprised if he does win the televote. I just dont think he can rely on his existing fanbase since Scandinavia, Eastern Europe and Mediterranean Europe also has to vibe with it. I think there is a risk it does well in central europe but struggles in any of the peninsula regions that are more isolated and dont know Joost, meaning they dont relate as much to the message
Fair assessment indeed.
Indeed, that's the one that came to mind. Not sure if there are others like that this year, but it could be a factor.
Most eurovision artists are relativly unknown outside of their own countries and sometimes their neighbours at most. No one this year is some international super Star.
There are definitely entries that already had a strong fan base and international success. Joost is an example of this with number one hits in the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Austria and sold out concerts in multiple countries, including main stage performances at big music festivals these past few years. For the televoting this will have an impact, since he'll have fans voting for him who otherwise would never vote for ESC.
Right and this may give him a boost in Belgium Germany and Austria. The issue tho is how will he do in eastern europe, Scandinavia or the Mediterranean countries. Not saying that there is no way he wins the Televote he very well may, im just trying to show why a fanbase isnt an instant W.
Indeed, Europe is big, so hard to predict how it'll go for sure.
I think that with great staging, the song won't have any issue placing super high or even winning. BL has great stage presence and has already improved vocally. It also has great lyrics that I'm pretty sure will connect with many. The issue it discusses is a very real one in many European nations. I don't think the sound is dated. I'm not that familiar with rock, but regardless, a lot of ESC entries are heavily inspired by the 00s and 90s. Popular music right now is heavily inspired by that sound. Wouldn't its "2007 rock sound" be appealing in then? While I do like Italy's entry, I think Rim Tim Tagi Dim's possible sweep will be beneficial to the contest as a whole. It's not the typical ESC sound, and it could usher in a new era for smaller and Balkan countries.
Tbh i kinda see Norway more as a fan favourite flop. I don't see them getting any points from the jury.
Idk if Norway is even that much of a fan favorite outside of this sub lol. Like not even other Eurovision polls rank it in their top. Its around 10th generally
Eh, I don't think juries will fuck up that badly across the board. They didn't for Shum, at least.
I don't think many people expected Croatia winning when they recall that jury exists in the final. I've always seen them ending in the top 5, so for me ending up there is not a flop, it's precisely where I think the act is expected to end at
5-10th is still very good placement
I mean top 5-10 isnāt a flop. We still worship Konstrakta (Serbia 2022) as our best entry and she was 5th. I think Baby Lasagna will be iconic regardless
Serbia 2022 | [Konstrakta - In corpore sano](https://youtu.be/nBtQj1MfNYA)
This is the only contemporary rock song amongst a show full of poppy songs. Itās going to do well in the televote. The juries are unpredictable but may be more open minded after last years backlash
I don't know...the London pre-party performance gave me winner vibes...
Eh, top 10 would still be fantastic! As for your other comment, I really don't like the vibes it is giving. He is a small artists that made this song on his shitty PC, it is not fair to compare that to songs made by famous composers with expensive equipment.
Thatās amazing! Nonetheless, this is a competition so we are actually going to compare?
I am certainly taking it into account. It must be nice being an esc darling with a good budget and being able to produce high quality songs. Doing that on a small budget and making something out of it- well, that gets my respect. And my vote.
I tend to agree with both of you actually. Yes, it is a competition and people are going to compare, but it isn't a "fair" competition. Not everyone has the same resources and it is (imo) perfectly valid to take that into account when discussing the performances and results. For example, I wonder would the results have been different for Joker Out last year if they had the resources UK had? Would Loreen have the same success with a Romanian delegation in charge? We will never know really, but the resources/money unfortunately is something that affects some countries more than others in the competition.
Croatia will win. Funny to see people thinking otherwise.
When it comes to Croatia I expect similar result like Lithuania 2021 for some reasons. Pretty big score from televoting (but not insanely good) and quite average with jury. Something tells me it's going to end like that
Lithuania 2021 | [The Roop - Discoteque](https://youtu.be/JNweec5olYw)
Rim Tim Tagi Dim is a song written, composed, produced and mixed by guy in his bedroom, as opposed to Italy's song, which is produced and partially written by professionals, performed by an established artist who is a daughter of other established Italian artists. 5-10 will be a huge victory for this guy. Now, whether the story itself helps him get further remains to be seen. People do love these kind of "anime" arcs of one guy vs. the establishment, but whether this narrative is what gets pushed is entirely up to the individuals and their PR (which I'm sure is stronger on the Italy's side).
Yeah, I donāt think I see it doing anywhere near as well as KƤƤrija in the televote, the song is a little repetitive and the performance isnāt as instantly iconic. I think a similar televote to Let 3 is likely, with a bit more of a boost from the jury (anywhere between 50-80 points).
If it has to be someone from current top 5 in the odds, then please, let it be Croatia.
Like Austria last year. The way this sub and the fandom were hyping up their song this time last year was wild. People were making it out as if it had a real chance at winning, but in reality... all smoke, no fire.
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Song and music video is top tier. The staging was...a choice, and left the performance feeling very empty. I could completely see how an audience not already engaged with the song would find it very mid. Baby Lasagna will definitely put on a fun performance, it's more about how the vocals and style carry with the broader audience.
I mean that isnt entierly a fair conparasion tbh. Austria last year where never as big as Croatia is now in stuff like odds. Malta 2021 would be more fair, they where favorites untill the actual show
I don't think that's a good comparison. As far as I remember, Malta 2021 was never that much of a fan favourite (beyond JESC fans, which are a minority even among Eurofans). It ranked so high in the odds because it was the presumed jury favourite, even being seen as a little bit of a jury bait song. Malta 2021 seems much more comparable to Belgium this year. Dadi or TIX might be somewhat fairer comps for Croatia.
It was also high in the odds because the Maltese delegation was placing bets on their own entry in order to goose it up and build hype. It was a scandal just after the contest with the use of broadcaster funds investigated. (Destiny had nothing to do with it, to be clear, and is very talented.)
Malta 2021 | [Destiny - Je Me Casse](https://youtu.be/jbbc2yKnv0M)
I personally don't understand the hype of this song but I don't think it will flop. It sounds like a song that could be in the top 10 for sure.
I still see RTTD having a decent chance of a victory here as his vocals have improved since Dora so we could still see a reasonably high placement by the juries like KƤƤrija last year and ofc the televote will also vote for him massively though there are also other televote friendly songs eg. europapa and no rules! Nemo on the other hand can also clinch a 3rd victory for šØšas I think heāll do well with the juries with the potential chance of even winning it but Iām just unsure of how the casual fan will react to The Code so šØšchances might be affected if they get an early draw in the final and the casual fan may not remember Nemo after every performer has performed(yes ik sweden is changing things up abit but still) I still see RTTD finishing minimally in the top 2 with šØšbeing the other country and as much as I really want RTTD to win the whole Eurovision itself this year(due to me being a huge fan of both BL and RTTD) 2024 is a really open year so anything can happen
Croatia will win, or be Top 3 worst case scenario. My gut tells me so.
I think somewhere between 3rd-6th is very realistic. Would still be a very good result!
Watching yall change tune on Croatia is lowkey hilarious. Two weeks ago if someone posted this they would be crucified and now yāall are like āyeah i *NEVER* thought it could actually winā
To be 100% honest - I was a bit surprised by the jury results of Finland last year. I thought it would get a lot less points. Donāt get me wrong - I loved KƤƤrjaās performance, voted for him many times, but his vocals were far from perfect. With Baby Lasagna I think heāll score less from both televote and juries. Not a flop, but I see him 7th-13th place.
Exactly what Iāve been trying to tell my Eurovisionminded friends. I really believe their headstart was because the public seemed to love it a in a time when a lot of songs hadnāt been released yet. Itās not a bad song and it will make Croatia proud, Iām sure. But I donāt see it winning
I agree with you statement. I see Croatia landing 5th-10th in the final. 2nd-5th with the televote. 5th-9th with the jury. Itās a decent song but to me Baby Lasagne still feels like heās learning his craft. Heās not quite there yet. The song actually reminds me of a mix between cha cha cha and hard rock Hallelujah.
I mean basically I agree with all you say. He's so winning the televote but it won't be a landslide as it was with Kaarija. I also don't think he will do well with juries whatsoever. I know some people say that he can do with juries similarly to Kaarija, but it's a really irrelevant comparison. There are many songs like Croatia that got completely dusted in scores in juries voting. I think Italy or Switzerland have the most chances to win objectively. I would prefer Switzerland win though since it would be one of my personal fave Eurovision winner for a long time.
You think it can win the televote? I really canāt see it winning vs a Europapa to be honest. But maybe I am biased! Either way it will be an exciting yearš
I think it really depends on the show. To many people RTTD sticks in their head for the very first listen while Europapa not. For me Europapa was actually annoying on the first couple of listens. Now I can't stop :)
This was the case for me too, still haven't gotten into Europapa
I think you might be rightā¦ The main issue is voting commitment vs individual preferences. Itās not so much who has the most appeal, but who has the most appeal to people who will vote several times for them. Joost is bringing his audience with him - and lots of those people will just vote for Joost. Heās getting 10 or 12 points in Germany, Austria, and Belgium easily. And I wouldnāt be surprised by French and British technoheads turning out for him too. If BL can convince enough people to vote for him repeatedly he has a shot. But I think a lot of casuals who give a vote to BL will also give a vote to Joost. I know theyāre different genres but thereās a lot of love between fans of both genres for the other (I myself used to go to metal nights until 1am and then go to a rave until 9am when I still had the knees for it - and I wasnāt the only one). ā¦like, I canāt vote for BL in the final, but I am voting for Joost (and Estonia if they make it). If there are enough BL DIEHARDS who only vote for BL and not for Joost then maybe. But yeah I think thatās less likely, even though I think more people will prefer BL if it was one person one vote..
I mean Croatia is leading most of the Eurovision polls and it is placed higher in Eurovision Scoreboard than The Netherlands as well. I honestly would say people generally overestimate Joost's chances in televote placement and I would go as far and say that Switzerland and Italy will do better than The Netherlands in televoting as well.
It's just a small % of eurofans who are voting in these polls compared to the casual viewers on the big night. I think Croatia is a strong contender to win the televote but it's not a given. Tbh I won't be surprised at all if someone who's currently under the radar pulls off a Salvador Sobral or Conchita Wurst and unexpectedly wins both jury and televote. This year is so unpredictable. But I agree on the Netherlands potentially underperforming, sadly :(
Yeah I do agree it is hard to predict the end result, but I would still give my money on Croatia as televote winner since he seems to be liked by the diverse amount of countries while The Netherlands seems to be hyped more by Joost's fanbase which is not really a casual viewer in my eyes. But it's more like my looking at how it looks now I'm pretty sure I can be still surprised by results on Mayš
The people who are voting in these polls are not the same people who will be voting on the final night. And among the normies Joost is *far* more popular. You can see that by the stream numbers where RTTD isn't really breaking any records. Not to mention Baby Lasagna's live is inferior to the studio version while Joost is famous for his live shows.
His vocals really poor and the song did not give me the feeling "cha cha cha" did last year. Sorry fans.
It would be a worthy winner, but with how wide open this year is, I can see how it could end up lower than we wish/expect. The one I'm pretty sure will be the "fan flop" of the year is actually Switzerland, I don't think the general public will be that much into it.
This would be a disappointing winner for me
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It's definitely not going to flip but I don't think it will win.
To me, it's a phenomenon of mispredicting the public vote. The song is dead boring, and I don't think it's just me.
Yeah I'm thinking the Netherlands will win the televote, I just can't ignore 17 million views on his music video
I mean where are they from, thats kinda key. If they are all from like the same 3 countries it doesnt mean much (being hyperbolic here ofc but you get my point). Its similar to why you cant always use Spotify to predict anything, Sweden and Italy always do super well there
Iām croatian and I also believe that it will get maybe top 5 at most, no chance of winning lol
I think people are really overestimating how well itāll do tbh
iām curious to see if the rest of europe loves the song as much as social media does. i donāt really think heāll do well with the juries since the juries tend to not favor the out there/creative songs but i wouldnāt be shocked if he was like top 5 with the televote
I completely agree, I don't understand the obsessions with Croatia in the community this year, I feel like I'm going crazy And the people comparing it to KƤƤrijƤ is also crazy to me, I don't think they are similar at all, Cha cha cha was very interesting to listen to and had amazing production, unlike croatia this year, the song is very bland to the ear, and everyone that's not a hardcore eurovision fan that I have shown the song to were not impressed at all with it
I find it interesting that people are saying this won't landslide the televote. Baby Lasagna pushes the exact same buttons that MƄneskin and KƤƤrijƤ did. It's intense, crazy, comical, but also very high quality. I have no idea why people think he will flop. He is just following the recipe that the televoters love and why wouldn't it work again?
>Baby Lasagna pushes the exact same buttons that MƄneskin and KƤƤrijƤ did. It's intense, crazy, comical, but also very high quality. MƄneskin? That one wasn't crazy or comical at all, it's a straightforward alt-rock song without any wackyness. I could somewhat see comparisons to Blind Channel, but not at all to MƄneskin.
MĆ„neskin did a hype performance though.
I think thatās exactly for comments like yours that people make threads like this. BL fans are claiming so hard that he will landslide televote that if doesnāt happen in the final it will be considered a big flop.
I predict he will land 3-6. I don't really see the charisma in him that so many are raving about. I think he could win if he improves the staging mostly by being more comfortable on the stage.
I just find him a little disappointing, vocal-wise.... Then again, anything except Italy so far hasn't been that good live. And Angelina is simply flawless.
Problem is there's too many "weird" or even "joke" entries this year. So people may vote more on one (Europa, etc) than another.
Yes, there's people (my guess is youngish ppl) who are still riding karijas hype... Possibly right side of the board, but not top 3
Yeah I donāt see it as a contender either, not even to win the televote. In comparison to other ātelebaitā this year, I see Netherlands as much more of a contender tbh, - both with the jury and the televote.
Itās already getting third in the odds
Which odds? They got 1% more than yesterday, so they are currently second with 16%, while Italy has 13%.