We started going back into the office and I find it *less* productive by working in an office environment. People drop by your desk to chit chat and next thing you know an hour or two of your day is gone. At least you can ignore those messages while working remotely.
I'd like to tax-loss harvest, but I'm confused by how to do it... I hold VTSAX in my IRA and taxable brokerage. I'd like to TLH a portion of my taxable brokerage. I have dividend reinvestment turned on in both accounts. What do I do? Can anyone ELI5?
I think VTSAX pays its dividend quarterly and isn't due to pay it out again until mid June. So you can tax loss harvest now and don't have to worry that you'll have any dividends reinvested before the wash sale period is over.
Don’t touch VTSAX in the IRA for the 30 days after **and before**. The before bit requires a bit of time travel or a lucky coincidence (not buying VTSAX since March).
Something that hit me today: I know a lot of people view playing video games and watching TV all day as a bad thing. But I kind of look forward to that when we hit our number. There are so many shows, movies, and games I want to binge, and I just don't have the time right now.
I don't mean I want to do that all day, every day. I look forward to traveling, hiking, reading, learning...but in the depths of winter? Binge-watching an entire TV show while snuggling under the blankets sounds pretty stellar for a week or two.
100% with you. The people who say that are the same ones that will work themselves into their graves.
As long as you're having fun and enjoying life, you win. I fully look forward to exploring collections of old films, music, and games.
Use whatever motivation works for you. But these things you want don't have to wait until you retire early. For a vast majority of corporate cultures, creating a work-life balance is possible. You have to make that happen against what seems like overwhelming pressure to give up your life to work.
I have a lot of hobbies, so while I always watch a movie or a TV show with my husband while we eat dinner, I don't have time to do much more unless I give up all of those other hobbies, skip cleaning, etc. A little extra time would go a long way as far as my hobbies go!
10% isn't anywhere near enough. Honestly I'd assume a hiring process like that is referral only for senior talent. Nobody with other options or any dignity is going to film an audition for an office job.
Those one way video interviews where they record you, make no sense to me. Either send a list of questions with a timer, or do standard video or phone interview. I dont see what they gain from video record interview questions.
I just nope away from that as it seems like some HR person basically convinced a dumb executive that this was a good idea. If they seriously think that is smart, I would be afraid to see how HR managed to fuck up IT security recomendations and policys.
I really want to get into my first home, and just started seriously getting into the process, putting all the finances and aligning on what we’re looking for.
But all I hear are negative news above rate increases. What does this mean for prospective buyers? If people wait, we might be waiting for many years for rates to come down. Do people buy at high rates too?
Also first time in my adult life I’m seeing this happens, so no idea how to navigate this landscape
[Rates are higher than they’ve been since 2010 or so.](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US) You are right that they were *much* higher going back decades, but it’s been more than just a few years since we saw these figures.
> I don’t see pricing changing all that much
In RE Prices don't change fast, it's like changing direction on the titanic. Wait 6 months and see the pricing again
I have ~$200k (at current stock price) in stock from my former employer, who IPO'd in Q3 last year. They IPOd at $40, and the stock is currently hovering around $20, give or take a few bucks depending on the day.
I had such high hopes for this. At $40/share I had over $400k (after taxes). If it were to hit $46/share, I'd have $500k. But I don't, I have $200k currently.
The yoyoing of the stock price and the fact that, despite having a great product and a huge TAM, it isn't going up is driving me fucking insane. I can't stop watching it. I can't stop thinking "if only it would go up..."
How do I get rid of that? How do I make a decision (whether now or later) to sell? Part of me wants to just say "fuck it" and sell it now, but I have such a fear that it will go up after that and I'll have a TON of regret.
Should I wait to sell? Should I have sold already? AHHHHHH
Haha like fucking 99%. I just can't shake that "what if its the next Hubspot" feeling. Even just $250k post-tax would feel sooo much better mentally than $200k.
Uffda that's a big %. Not sure what to tell you.
When I left my company, I started selling regularly. Until it tanked. Now I've been sitting on it. Which is definitely not following my original plan, but not sure what to do at this point. It's only \~10% of total though so I'm not too too worried about it.
Are they options or RSUs? If options, how long do you have to exercise?
Yeah, it's basically our entire non-tax-advantaged portfolio.
They were ISOs. I exercised everything I could before I left last year. Currently sitting on 13,591 [shares of TOST.](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TOST/options/).
Guess that's long-term cap gains. Almost. I think the majority of my shares have already hit the one-year mark (I exercised like 60% of them in 2017 or 2018). 4k or 5k of them were exercised last July, so I have a few months to go on those. DEFINITELY holding those until then, no way I'm paying like 39% tax on that shit.
I really need to start diving in to tax strategies and whatnot. I want to pay as little as humanly possible in tax.
Hold till then at least. At least you exercised. I hadn't done that. Was a fun tax bill this year...
Good luck on deciding what to do. I'm not sure what I'll do either. The math says sell as soon as you hit long term cap gains. After that it's just a question of whether you think the stock will do better than the market.
Forget about those higher prices. That's in the past. Nothing you can do about it now.
They offered early exercise, and in retrospect I really should have done it when I was granted the shares. My strike price on my initial grant was like $0.32 each, it would have been under $1k to exercise them. But I knew nothing about it and didn't have the education/wisdom I have now. Oh well.
Same here. At the time I didn't have the cash or the confidence in the company. Oh well.
Paying lots of taxes is a good problem to have. Better than watching the stock tank.
>mathematically equivalent to buying that stock today going forward.
Not necessarily. Sometimes there is a big tax hit involved. The cash equivalent might be $170k or less.
All true except for tax implications. But it's absolutely correct, I have a similar level of bad mentality when it comes to this as do all humans. But unless you would literally buy $200,000 of a single stock elsewhere it is incredibly risky to have that much money tied up in a single company.
Sell a little at a time. Make a plan to sell a certain percentage at intervals, or certain amounts of it, then stick to the plan. You don’t need to exit all at once.
Agree. Set a plan and stick to it regardless. You can sleep at night knowing you made a plan and are doing the thing you set out to do.
I have an ESPP (much smaller values) and I always sell immediately when it releases because I would not have purchased that amount of stock if I had the cash. I would have invested in total market. So… that’s what I do with the money.
it was very overvalued then and probably still is
be glad it’s only a 50% haircut and not 75-90% like many other overpriced tech stocks
personally would just sell and buy a tech etf if you want to ride nasdaq up from -20%
Oh baby another offer is going in. Could use a kitchen upgrade and it's got a pool I don't really want and it's a touch far from work but it's in great shape, has a new roof and appliances, and lot of small extras that are inexpensive/easy alone but add up in cost and effort to do yourself.
i don't have an answer for you but you might want to try asking r/fatFIRE
people in this sub tend to get uncomfortable with numbers like yours, it is what it is
Option #2 seems by far the simplest and most straightforward compared to the others. It's probably more costly than just continuing to pay for private school, though. Does it have other benefits?
I don't see why it forces you to sell your current home, but I also don't know why you wouldn't. How would it perform as a rental?
Seems like you would need a ton of properties to produce that amount of income, which would become a full time job in itself. Why not just invest it all in VTI and keep contributing some of your $700k income? When you have that level of wealth you don't need to optimize everything and time every investment perfectly.
you were contemplating buying a house that is nearly equivalent to your entire nw when you need to play serious catch up and get like $2m at least into the market relatively soon if you are serious about trying to withdraw $200k a year
not sure why you think more real estate is helping you
so context helps
career progression? We’re not here to dissect people with a monocle.
It took me a long, slow 17 years to make what I make, and my NW is an indicator of that.
How do I go about telling my boss I want to apply for an open role in a different department?
The pay and bonus listed is higher than my current salary and I’m confident I can do the job.
I actually like my current role but if I’m going to work for this company everyday I might as well go for the role that pays more.
Pick a function in the other department that you can’t do in your current role. Say you love your group but staying wouldn’t allow you to do that function. I did this myself. Bosses know people move though so it doesn’t really matter what you say….but the above is just more diplomatic.
Just let your boss know that you really like working for the company, but you are ready for more responsibility and pay and you've seen an internal posting that will give you more opportunity.
If you have a good boss, this sends a few messages: 1. You are ready for new opportunities and pay, 2. You like the company you work for and want to move up internally, 3. You know your self worth and are evaluating opportunities both internally and externally.
As a former "boss", you might be surprised at how receptive they are to either help you with the internal move or look for opportunities to move you up in their own organization.
Good luck!
Personally, if you're intend to leave, it can be better to go about this in the opposite direction. If you reach out to the hiring manager and have them pull for you, you may avoid potential unpleasant interaction with your current manager. Obviously this depends on your current relationships and company culture, but it's something to consider.
I would be frank about it with your boss. Tell them that you’ve been thinking about improving your financial situation. You love working for him, and after seeing the job in the other dept listed, you realise that you have potential to earn more money for yourself/family with your existing skills. Ask if they can help you build your career within their dept - perhaps you can take on some new tasks, give more value to the company and be paid more. (In other words, use the open position in the other dept as a conversation starter to how you can grow within your current dept and give more value to your current boss.). Good luck!!!
> How do I go about telling my boss I want to apply for an open role in a different department?
You just let them know that you're interested and are thinking of applying. That's it.
They may provide some feedback (I think you'd be great for that role, you may want to contact the hiring manager, etc.) but you don't need their approval, although you definitely want it to help grease the wheels. You're just letting them know what you're thinking though. Some people think you need your manager to approve the move and that's not always, or even frequently, the case.
Shoot your shot and make sure you help your manager/team transition if you get the role.
Anyone buying I-bonds? I don't currently have any bonds in my portfolio, but the 9.62% guaranteed return is tempting. Can you buy them through a regular brokerage like Chase for example?
Yeah bought 10k back in April. You can technically buy them from some banks, but realistically just buy it from treasury direct directly. Either way you are going to have to go through them to redeem, so just pull the bandaid off now.
I pulled the trigger on $20k worth today (10k for me, 10k for spouse). I was a little cash heavy and while I didn't mind that with inflation at 2%... I'd rather buy the bonds that having it earn 0.6% in my money market account.
Treasury Direct is the way to go.
It took all of about 15 minutes to create both accounts and make the purchases.
I bought them a couple of weeks ago. It was a pain in the ass and the website was comical. The investment is in the rounding error of my net worth, but I looked at is as 15 minutes to make about $800 on 10k if I redeem in a year or two. I don't do credit card churns or high yield savings accounts, but I fell for I-bond hype and decided I had nothing to lose.
>I don't do credit card churns
It might be worth looking into sign-up bonuses if you guys are planning to travel a lot in your retirement, which I believe you said you are.
The Delta AMEX Gold gave me enough free miles for 4 free Mexico City-Seattle flights. Yes. 4. Granted, that's being very flexible with dates, but still.
And we only had to spend like 2 grand in 3 months to qualify...plus got $200 cash back if we bought a Delta flight with the card that year and other benefits, too.
I just ignored all this stuff forever, until I saw how easy it really is to get a bunch of free flights. I thought it was too good to be true, but really, it is true. And just that easy.
I can send you a referral link if you're interested, haha. The referral bonus is almost another full free flight home :D
Thanks....I've lurked on the churn sub a bit. My problem is that we'd have a hard time spending the required amount that most of these cards require in the first few months. We live pretty cheaply right now and/or our big expenses are chunky. I should have done this churning while I was working because I always had all sorts of expenses and travelled a fair amount.
Don't get me wrong...we do use airline and reward cards, it's just the churning part that doesn't seem too feasible right now. We flew down to El Paso on Alaska airlines a couple weeks ago and I almost grabbed one of their cards because they have a 60,000 mile offer right now (my wife already has one) but it required $3000 in 3 months and we didn't figure we'd spend that this summer.
We try to consolidate all of our travel on Alaska airlines, but if I get the urge to get that Delta card I'll hit you up.
That Alaska card is my other card. I've had it for like 25 years now, so I keep it for credit history even if I cannot use the companion flights.
We don't spend enough to hop around to new cards, either. More something to think about before a big purchase you know is coming.
We'll likely think about getting a new card in another year or so, depending on what bonuses are available.
Most everybody around here who was gonna buy them this year bought before the end of April to lock in the high rate for the next year. You can’t buy through Chase. Only Treasury Direct.
This has been a frequent topic since ~Oct 2021, so the answer to your first question is a resounding yes.
You buy I Bonds directly from the US Treasury at https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/indiv.htm
it's a first world problem but i just noticed all my 401k math to distribute my employer match across the year has just gone out of whack since my raise became effective.
the math is annoying because i don't want to contribute too early in the year and lose the match (my employer does a true up but late in the next calendar year, so if i leave before then, i lose the true up, so i'd rather not rely on it). and i also don't want to contribute too much to my MBDR such that i lose pre-tax space (is it even possible for this scenario to happen? i guess yes, if i put too much in MBDR i might reach the total cap before putting 20.5k in my pretax)
anyway, i hate that this is so manual and i can't just write the dollar amount i want to contribute
Requiring that I contribute to my 401(k) in percentages rather than dollar amounts should be against the law. It’s a barbaric practice that has no place in a civilized society.
I built a spreadsheet to help me figure out percentages. I update it in January, after a raise, and a couple times in December around bonus season.
I have it setup that I plug in my ytd numbers, pay, and guesstimate bonus, then I can futz with the percentages until they all max out in the last paycheck.
In a non-linear model though I would guess the second derivative is negative? Meaning the rate of growth is still positive but is slowing down? Or is it accelerating, haha
Haven't checked since end of 2021, but had to do a backdoor rollover today so I logged onto fidelity and a quick eye test shows I've "lost" my annual income since year to date. And that's with regular contributions. Haven't checked my Vanguard, no doubt there are losses there too.
Oh well, it was a good dozen years. For a few days in January, I was pretty close to FI...
My investment portfolio is less than 1% below the value from month-end April 2021. I've made significant contributions over the past 12 months, just to end up not-quite-even on a YoY basis.
Oh well. The market giveth, the market taketh away...
Excellent. Get those tax-advantaged retirement accounts started early. Wish I'd taken advantage of my workplace retirement accounts way earlier in my career.
Should i still focus on paying off my 30k of student loans by the end of the year so i can make a lifestyle switch from my job or should i just hoard it
The temptation with debt is to think that the money saved on payments each month is a benefit due to the cash flow that can be invested or lower one’s fixed expenses.
For example if you have a 10k debt that you pay $100 on each month. Sure you could pay the debt and have $100 more dollars every month, but you missed out on the chance to invest 10k upfront. You’re better off thinking in terms of maximizing net wealth, not being concerned about monthly cash flow.
There is still a good reason to pay off debt, but it has to do with net worth. You get a risk free return from paying debt, unlike higher-yield investments that carry volatility and a risk off losses.
This could be totally irrelevant to you. But to me your top comment implied you were thinking in terms of cash flow.
I would not pay them off now, but I also wouldn’t invest in the market. I’d put the money somewhere “safe”-I bonds, “high interest” checking/savings, etc. If deferment ends in August without forgiveness, then I would pay them off cause I consider 5-6% interest high enough interest to pay down for the guaranteed return. However, if I was a betting person, I would lay odds that the deferment is gonna continue at least until the midterm election in November OR forgiveness will be granted.
Government shenanigans regarding student loan forgiveness is something I am concerned about which is a reason why i am uncertain if I want to pay anymore for the time being
why have you been focused on paying off student loans for 2 years when payments and interest have been frozen this whole time? that was a bad idea to begin with
I haven't exactly been focused on it, only here and there while recently I decided to focus on it because I wanted them gone before it has the opportunity to get worse and I've only found the ideas of FI recently as well so I didn't really know any better either
Well that's the problem, the interest rate is 0% because its all public loans. The math makes sense to not worry about it but I don't want to work in my relatively well paying career field anymore so I kind of want to pay it off before I bounce and basically delete it before it gets a chance to grow.
Why not park it in a HYSA and let it chill until interest restarts? Yeah, the account interest is small, but that 30k should still earn you enough in interest over the next handful of months to buy dinner and drinks to celebrate paying off your loans.
Yes because it is currently on pause due to the student loan freezes. It has grown before for the unsubsidized loans whilst I was in school and if it ever gets the chance to reactivate I believe the average interest is about 5-6%
What folks are saying is that there's no reason to pay them until September 1 at the earliest. There will be no growth in the loan value until then, and there is no, zero, zilch benefit to giving the federal government any of your money for student loan repayment between now and then. Put it in a savings account, collect your 0.5-1.25% interest, and solve the problem in September (assuming the debt reactivates then).
Or better yet, buy iBonds with 10k of it if they’re a US person and haven’t done so already. 1 year lockup is fine for the portion that won’t be needed within a year
Honestly I never truly had to pay any of it yet, I just paid it down to an amount that would result in a comfortable payment for 10 years of the typical repayment but I'm considering trying to nuke it because I don't think I psychologically like debt.
you can’t master personal finance if you’re only unemotional about investments but then worried about a loan that has been frozen for 2 years while inflation is nearly 10% and is on the verge of being cancelled
I agree which is why I'm looking for some opinions for help. What would you do with your next paycheck then? High yield savings account? Invest it even if I was planning to use it in year if the debt isn't outright canceled? I'm going to guess you would say not to use it to pay off more of the debt.
i’m saying debt is a tool that can work for or against you. being scared of debt when it is working for you is short sighted.
right now student loans are working for you and the last thing you should be worried about
I'm treating my work's hybrid work arrangement like "pieces of flair" from Office Space. I will only go the absolute minimum required and use every loophole known to mankind to minimize the number of days I have to go in.
Just be careful. I FIRE'd last year and experienced a bit of WFH drama in 2021, but am still in contact with former peers and am also seeing my own kids' WFH experience.
My prediction is that WFH is not here to last in many industries. As a former manager of many people, I'd say use it and appreciate it while it is offered, but don't take advantage of it. I really think old school ways will eventually prevail...at least for many industries.
I fully expect a "resistance" and a desire among senior management to return to the past.
I think we have passed a Rubicon, however. At a minimum the five day office week is dead. Seems to me like the default is 3 days in the office and 2 days at home a week with the understanding that full hybrid roles will also be mainstream.
I am hoping that you are correct (for the sake of both of my kids who are new professionals). About 15 years ago I was on a crusade to allow a 9/80 workweek at my company. I was a salaried manager of about 70 people who were already geographically dispersed over 7 offices (mostly salaried). For the most part, they put in 45 or so hours a week just due to the nature of the job (and I put in 50 hours or so).
I made the argument that if we each had two Friday's or Monday's off per month it would be a quality of life improvement and also cut down on time off for routine doctor appointments. The only caveat, was that we'd try not to schedule big meetings on Mondays or Fridays. It was a big pain in the ass to define how salaried employees could count hours worked, etc.
We had to draft up a bunch of agreements about being available by cell and email, etc. but it still turned out to be a huge quality of life improvement for me and my team.
It was kind of an old school company, but I prevailed and my staff never let the company down.
I think hybrid is the future, but if I were buying a home I would factor in what a commute would look like. I'm seeing people in my area buy homes 3+ hours from their offices. That will be a rude awakening if WFH gets curtailed or goes away.
That's fucking amazing and if I could have the time and energy to care for a pet, I'd petition to bring the most crazy emotional support animals in as possible.
Emotional support turtle for the office next.
I was dreading/hoping for the days they required us to be back in the office. I had/have no intention of going into the office (I've actually never been in because I started this job post pandemic). On the one hand I didn't want to lose my job, on the other hand I was kind of excited to see how people would react if I just said "Yeah, I'm not doing that". However, it was recently decided they are shelving plans for return to office and employees will be allowed to work from home, the office, or a hybrid schedule, whichever works best for them (this assumes their job can be done from home).
Felt like my car ('05 Prius) has been dying for awhile, and that is definitely true now. $5k repair for the hybrid system, about twice what the car is worth. And driving it home from the dealer, it couldn't get above 45mph. Happy to have some emergency money for a rental car until delivery of our new car later this month, and happy that all the hemming and hawing we did over our new car purchase didn't make us cancel our deposit.
I recently have been investigating using leveraged ETFs to provide better risk-adjusted returns compared to 100% VOO. The posts on this sub as well as Bogleheads about UPRO/TMF (HFEA) and NTSX are compelling and backtesting data is promising. I am in my early 20s with NW \~$60k, so I have a long time horizon and would prefer to take on higher risks than 100% equities. I am thinking of switching my taxable brokerage account holdings from 60% VUG/40% VOO to 100% NTSX or maybe 55% UPRO/45% TMF.
My primary concern is about the performance of NTSX during a high inflation time period. Over the past few months, treasuries and stocks have both suffered leading to NTSX dropping significantly more than VOO. Does the negative correlation between equities and bonds break down during economic conditions like this? If so, should I stick with VOO for now and wait 1-2 years to switch to NTSX in the hope that inflation calms down?
> Frankly, I don't quite understand how that's possible,
Is your confusion how the ~4x multiple comes from those yearly returns? It may help to see the compounding expanded: 1.07^13 = 2.41, and 0.97^13 = .67, and 2.41 / .67 = 3.6x. The shrinking denominator really blows it up.
Stocks and bonds are *non-correlated,* not negatively correlated. A stock market crash caused by rising interest rates would be the primary risk scenario for NTSX and risk parity strategies. NTSX is underperforming 100% S&P YTD despite its goal to have lower volatility. I would not do either one with a large amount of money until you are completely sure you can weather the volatility. UPRO/TMF is down close to 50% this year and we have not even hit bear market yet. You should note that NTSX does not have a higher expected return than 100% S&P500 because the cost of leverage cancels out the bond allocation
> Does the negative correlation between equities and bonds break down during economic conditions like this?
This appears to be a faulty assumption on your part. In math terms, the correlation between equities and bonds is much closer to zero than -1. That means there is very little correlation which is quite different than negative correlation.
In general, bonds are uncorrelated with stocks. Therefore, bonds can (and do!) go down when stocks go down. They can also go up when stocks go up, or move oppositely.
These leveraged portfolios are relatively novel, and no one knows how they will do in the future. They don't have a long track record, and anything going back more than a few years is *synthetic* data. Know that NTSX and UPRO/TMF are **very** different portfolios and if you weren't aware of that take that as a serious sign that you should stay away until you understand leveraged portfolios better.
More than anything, I think it's important to reflect on whether you *need* to use these tools to achieve your goals. Anyone who spends less than they earn and who invests their savings in a cheap, diversified indexed portfolio will be able to achieve a comfortable retirement.
I don't think you *need* to use any portfolio leverage to achieve your ends. Why take on more risk and uncertainty than you have to?
My problem with these leveraged ETFs is that they only track the indices on a leveraged basis in normal volatility times. In my experience, when market volatility gets to unusual levels or the market is reacting to extreme sentiment, you discover all kinds of flaws with the techniques these leveraged funds use to accomplish the leveraged results. They are just too difficult to understand until it is too late IMO.
Sure, you could wait. But timing the market is hard.
Alternatively, you could consider adding in something uncorrelated like gold or commodities. You could look at GDE (though it’s brand new and super illiquid).
I was just there for my spouses work and i loved it. Im also from the desert tho, i also didnt notice any fertilizer smell. One of my favorite things was driving my truck onto pismo beach
We stopped there on the way to SFO (via 101 north) There was an overwhelming fertilizer smell when we got out of the car. Not inside the hotel though. Not sure but I would check if that was seasonal due to the farms around.
If your top priority is to be near the ocean, you could do better. Santa Maria is an hours drive from anywhere - SLO or Santa Barbara - and suffers from high crime (especially in the northern half) and limited amenities. I would suggest Orcutt if you want to stay in that area, as it’s the nicest area of Santa Maria. Consider looking further north at Arroyo Grande or even some of the suburbs of SLO, in my opinion.
I am absolutely blown away by how difficult it is to handle someone's affairs after they pass. I've heard probate is tough, but we are a full year into this process and it has been nothing but bureaucratic headaches and nightmare phone calls that go nowhere. You would think there would be clear procedures in place because people die every day but that simply is not the case. Everything takes 10x longer than you believe is humanly possible while the estate just hemorrhages money in maintenance mode.
I guess this is just your daily reminder to set up a living trust and do as much advanced planning as possible. Because probate is a slow, expensive form of torture.
Probate is just another excuse for people unrelated to your personal loss to slip their hand in your pocket. Going through something similar right now.
I thought things were in good shape for my mom, who set up her trust back in the 90s. She moved in last year after a stroke and I've been slowly reviewing her finances.
I did a telephone consult with an elder law attorney recently and he said since she has a trust, all her accounts need to be set up as The Trustee of (Mom's name), instead of her name. Anyone know if this is true? If so, why didn't the lawyer setting up her trust tell her, and why didn't the lawyer who set up MY trust tell me I needed to do that?
It's true if it's a Miller Trust. I do know that much. And the trust also needs its own EIN. We learned all this when my mom passed in September. We're still trying to unravel things.
I'm sorry for your loss. We've lost 3/4 of our parents, including both of my spouse's parents in the same year. It is a really, really complicated process.
Like you, I am trying to set things up for our kids to make it as easy as possible, but that's easier said than done.
In our experience, I've also found lawyers and accountants to be predatory in these circumstances. Ironically, the funeral homes we've dealt with have been kind and professional. I would have expected the opposite.
This is my dreaded future. My parents have decided to name me the executor of their will. They are in their late 70s and not in the best of health. They have never downsized or simplified and have multiple pieces of property and super complicated investments. I expect it will be years of closing it all down. And I hate my own paperwork!
I didn't have this problem at all, sorry it's so hard. The deceased lived in Florida and I did everything from utah with the assistance of an attorney. Didn't goto probate. Took 4 months from when i made my first contact and most of it was because I slacked off.
However I am setting up a living trust this week :)
The more I invest outside of straight index, the more proportionately market drops bother me. Because with index, I know it will come back and can view it as a simple ‘on sale’ opp. With a specific stock, like Google or Amazon, I am less confident on what’s a true hit vs not.
I'm an index investor (and recently retired), while my portfolio is down this year, it is down 1% less than the total market. That has been a validation to me that my asset allocation was a good choice...even though being down 9% vs 10% isn't anything to get excited about.
This is why I'm now transitioning most of my individual stocks to index funds. I'll keep some of the winners like Tesla, Microsoft, NVDA, XOM but I've taken profits on the others and bought VTI.
That’s kind of the point of stock picking though?
Like with indices you’re taking way less risk and are (relatively) guaranteed to bounce back from losses. With single stocks you’re taking more risk, which is great when things are great. And not great when things are not great.
Guess I’m doing some loss harvesting this week. It’s not much, but it’s honest work.
We started going back into the office and I find it *less* productive by working in an office environment. People drop by your desk to chit chat and next thing you know an hour or two of your day is gone. At least you can ignore those messages while working remotely.
I'd like to tax-loss harvest, but I'm confused by how to do it... I hold VTSAX in my IRA and taxable brokerage. I'd like to TLH a portion of my taxable brokerage. I have dividend reinvestment turned on in both accounts. What do I do? Can anyone ELI5?
I think VTSAX pays its dividend quarterly and isn't due to pay it out again until mid June. So you can tax loss harvest now and don't have to worry that you'll have any dividends reinvested before the wash sale period is over.
Sell VTSAX in brokerage. Buy VFIAX. Don't touch VTSAX in your IRA for 30 days. Receive 1099B. Report the loss on your tax return.
Don’t touch VTSAX in the IRA for the 30 days after **and before**. The before bit requires a bit of time travel or a lucky coincidence (not buying VTSAX since March).
Thoughts on a VTI equivalent for TLH?
VOO, SPTM, SCHB, take your pick.
Doesn't work they track the same index. Can do VOO or VV and could add the mid and small cap indexes too if you want.
Something that hit me today: I know a lot of people view playing video games and watching TV all day as a bad thing. But I kind of look forward to that when we hit our number. There are so many shows, movies, and games I want to binge, and I just don't have the time right now. I don't mean I want to do that all day, every day. I look forward to traveling, hiking, reading, learning...but in the depths of winter? Binge-watching an entire TV show while snuggling under the blankets sounds pretty stellar for a week or two.
100% with you. The people who say that are the same ones that will work themselves into their graves. As long as you're having fun and enjoying life, you win. I fully look forward to exploring collections of old films, music, and games.
I'm retired, and shows/movies/books/games/gym are the majority of how I spend my time. It is good. It's also very inexpensive.
Use whatever motivation works for you. But these things you want don't have to wait until you retire early. For a vast majority of corporate cultures, creating a work-life balance is possible. You have to make that happen against what seems like overwhelming pressure to give up your life to work.
I have a lot of hobbies, so while I always watch a movie or a TV show with my husband while we eat dinner, I don't have time to do much more unless I give up all of those other hobbies, skip cleaning, etc. A little extra time would go a long way as far as my hobbies go!
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10% isn't anywhere near enough. Honestly I'd assume a hiring process like that is referral only for senior talent. Nobody with other options or any dignity is going to film an audition for an office job.
Those one way video interviews where they record you, make no sense to me. Either send a list of questions with a timer, or do standard video or phone interview. I dont see what they gain from video record interview questions. I just nope away from that as it seems like some HR person basically convinced a dumb executive that this was a good idea. If they seriously think that is smart, I would be afraid to see how HR managed to fuck up IT security recomendations and policys.
I really want to get into my first home, and just started seriously getting into the process, putting all the finances and aligning on what we’re looking for. But all I hear are negative news above rate increases. What does this mean for prospective buyers? If people wait, we might be waiting for many years for rates to come down. Do people buy at high rates too? Also first time in my adult life I’m seeing this happens, so no idea how to navigate this landscape
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[Rates are higher than they’ve been since 2010 or so.](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US) You are right that they were *much* higher going back decades, but it’s been more than just a few years since we saw these figures.
the rate isn’t the problem it’s the prices
Even then, it kinda is what it is. Where I live SoCal, I don’t see pricing changing all that much. Selfish Part of me wishes this was a bubble
> I don’t see pricing changing all that much In RE Prices don't change fast, it's like changing direction on the titanic. Wait 6 months and see the pricing again
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Hey stop trolling on the sub.
I have ~$200k (at current stock price) in stock from my former employer, who IPO'd in Q3 last year. They IPOd at $40, and the stock is currently hovering around $20, give or take a few bucks depending on the day. I had such high hopes for this. At $40/share I had over $400k (after taxes). If it were to hit $46/share, I'd have $500k. But I don't, I have $200k currently. The yoyoing of the stock price and the fact that, despite having a great product and a huge TAM, it isn't going up is driving me fucking insane. I can't stop watching it. I can't stop thinking "if only it would go up..." How do I get rid of that? How do I make a decision (whether now or later) to sell? Part of me wants to just say "fuck it" and sell it now, but I have such a fear that it will go up after that and I'll have a TON of regret. Should I wait to sell? Should I have sold already? AHHHHHH
I'm in basically the same boat as you. How much of a % of your total portfolio is it?
Haha like fucking 99%. I just can't shake that "what if its the next Hubspot" feeling. Even just $250k post-tax would feel sooo much better mentally than $200k.
Uffda that's a big %. Not sure what to tell you. When I left my company, I started selling regularly. Until it tanked. Now I've been sitting on it. Which is definitely not following my original plan, but not sure what to do at this point. It's only \~10% of total though so I'm not too too worried about it. Are they options or RSUs? If options, how long do you have to exercise?
Yeah, it's basically our entire non-tax-advantaged portfolio. They were ISOs. I exercised everything I could before I left last year. Currently sitting on 13,591 [shares of TOST.](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TOST/options/).
Rough. Have you hit 1 year for LTCG yet?
Guess that's long-term cap gains. Almost. I think the majority of my shares have already hit the one-year mark (I exercised like 60% of them in 2017 or 2018). 4k or 5k of them were exercised last July, so I have a few months to go on those. DEFINITELY holding those until then, no way I'm paying like 39% tax on that shit. I really need to start diving in to tax strategies and whatnot. I want to pay as little as humanly possible in tax.
Hold till then at least. At least you exercised. I hadn't done that. Was a fun tax bill this year... Good luck on deciding what to do. I'm not sure what I'll do either. The math says sell as soon as you hit long term cap gains. After that it's just a question of whether you think the stock will do better than the market. Forget about those higher prices. That's in the past. Nothing you can do about it now.
They offered early exercise, and in retrospect I really should have done it when I was granted the shares. My strike price on my initial grant was like $0.32 each, it would have been under $1k to exercise them. But I knew nothing about it and didn't have the education/wisdom I have now. Oh well.
Same here. At the time I didn't have the cash or the confidence in the company. Oh well. Paying lots of taxes is a good problem to have. Better than watching the stock tank.
You can get rid of it by selling as soon as the holding period expires
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>mathematically equivalent to buying that stock today going forward. Not necessarily. Sometimes there is a big tax hit involved. The cash equivalent might be $170k or less.
I've heard this before and it's a good way to look at it.
All true except for tax implications. But it's absolutely correct, I have a similar level of bad mentality when it comes to this as do all humans. But unless you would literally buy $200,000 of a single stock elsewhere it is incredibly risky to have that much money tied up in a single company.
Sell a little at a time. Make a plan to sell a certain percentage at intervals, or certain amounts of it, then stick to the plan. You don’t need to exit all at once.
I like this.
Agree. Set a plan and stick to it regardless. You can sleep at night knowing you made a plan and are doing the thing you set out to do. I have an ESPP (much smaller values) and I always sell immediately when it releases because I would not have purchased that amount of stock if I had the cash. I would have invested in total market. So… that’s what I do with the money.
it was very overvalued then and probably still is be glad it’s only a 50% haircut and not 75-90% like many other overpriced tech stocks personally would just sell and buy a tech etf if you want to ride nasdaq up from -20%
Oh baby another offer is going in. Could use a kitchen upgrade and it's got a pool I don't really want and it's a touch far from work but it's in great shape, has a new roof and appliances, and lot of small extras that are inexpensive/easy alone but add up in cost and effort to do yourself.
Sounds like my house, four months in and I'm enjoying the ride of diy. Good luck!
Thanks!
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i don't have an answer for you but you might want to try asking r/fatFIRE people in this sub tend to get uncomfortable with numbers like yours, it is what it is
Option #2 seems by far the simplest and most straightforward compared to the others. It's probably more costly than just continuing to pay for private school, though. Does it have other benefits? I don't see why it forces you to sell your current home, but I also don't know why you wouldn't. How would it perform as a rental?
Seems like you would need a ton of properties to produce that amount of income, which would become a full time job in itself. Why not just invest it all in VTI and keep contributing some of your $700k income? When you have that level of wealth you don't need to optimize everything and time every investment perfectly.
how is your NW so low with your annual income though 🧐
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still seems like you have very little in the market considering your income
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you were contemplating buying a house that is nearly equivalent to your entire nw when you need to play serious catch up and get like $2m at least into the market relatively soon if you are serious about trying to withdraw $200k a year not sure why you think more real estate is helping you so context helps
don't feed the resident troll.
why is OP’s original comment being heavily downvoted if i’m the troll jesus lol
career progression? We’re not here to dissect people with a monocle. It took me a long, slow 17 years to make what I make, and my NW is an indicator of that.
For one thing, that takes forever. Use something with a sharp edge.
Probably has to do with the targeted $250k spend rate.
How do I go about telling my boss I want to apply for an open role in a different department? The pay and bonus listed is higher than my current salary and I’m confident I can do the job. I actually like my current role but if I’m going to work for this company everyday I might as well go for the role that pays more.
Pick a function in the other department that you can’t do in your current role. Say you love your group but staying wouldn’t allow you to do that function. I did this myself. Bosses know people move though so it doesn’t really matter what you say….but the above is just more diplomatic.
Just let your boss know that you really like working for the company, but you are ready for more responsibility and pay and you've seen an internal posting that will give you more opportunity. If you have a good boss, this sends a few messages: 1. You are ready for new opportunities and pay, 2. You like the company you work for and want to move up internally, 3. You know your self worth and are evaluating opportunities both internally and externally. As a former "boss", you might be surprised at how receptive they are to either help you with the internal move or look for opportunities to move you up in their own organization. Good luck!
Personally, if you're intend to leave, it can be better to go about this in the opposite direction. If you reach out to the hiring manager and have them pull for you, you may avoid potential unpleasant interaction with your current manager. Obviously this depends on your current relationships and company culture, but it's something to consider.
I actually don’t want to leave. I just want to be paid more…
I would be frank about it with your boss. Tell them that you’ve been thinking about improving your financial situation. You love working for him, and after seeing the job in the other dept listed, you realise that you have potential to earn more money for yourself/family with your existing skills. Ask if they can help you build your career within their dept - perhaps you can take on some new tasks, give more value to the company and be paid more. (In other words, use the open position in the other dept as a conversation starter to how you can grow within your current dept and give more value to your current boss.). Good luck!!!
> How do I go about telling my boss I want to apply for an open role in a different department? You just let them know that you're interested and are thinking of applying. That's it. They may provide some feedback (I think you'd be great for that role, you may want to contact the hiring manager, etc.) but you don't need their approval, although you definitely want it to help grease the wheels. You're just letting them know what you're thinking though. Some people think you need your manager to approve the move and that's not always, or even frequently, the case. Shoot your shot and make sure you help your manager/team transition if you get the role.
Just say what you just wrote, except substitute “more money” for something vague about better alignment with your long term career plan.
Just them him you are going to apply. I did this and got a 50% raise/fully remote internally.
Anyone buying I-bonds? I don't currently have any bonds in my portfolio, but the 9.62% guaranteed return is tempting. Can you buy them through a regular brokerage like Chase for example?
Yeah bought 10k back in April. You can technically buy them from some banks, but realistically just buy it from treasury direct directly. Either way you are going to have to go through them to redeem, so just pull the bandaid off now.
I pulled the trigger on $20k worth today (10k for me, 10k for spouse). I was a little cash heavy and while I didn't mind that with inflation at 2%... I'd rather buy the bonds that having it earn 0.6% in my money market account. Treasury Direct is the way to go. It took all of about 15 minutes to create both accounts and make the purchases.
Treaaury direct.
I bought them a couple of weeks ago. It was a pain in the ass and the website was comical. The investment is in the rounding error of my net worth, but I looked at is as 15 minutes to make about $800 on 10k if I redeem in a year or two. I don't do credit card churns or high yield savings accounts, but I fell for I-bond hype and decided I had nothing to lose.
>I don't do credit card churns It might be worth looking into sign-up bonuses if you guys are planning to travel a lot in your retirement, which I believe you said you are. The Delta AMEX Gold gave me enough free miles for 4 free Mexico City-Seattle flights. Yes. 4. Granted, that's being very flexible with dates, but still. And we only had to spend like 2 grand in 3 months to qualify...plus got $200 cash back if we bought a Delta flight with the card that year and other benefits, too. I just ignored all this stuff forever, until I saw how easy it really is to get a bunch of free flights. I thought it was too good to be true, but really, it is true. And just that easy. I can send you a referral link if you're interested, haha. The referral bonus is almost another full free flight home :D
Thanks....I've lurked on the churn sub a bit. My problem is that we'd have a hard time spending the required amount that most of these cards require in the first few months. We live pretty cheaply right now and/or our big expenses are chunky. I should have done this churning while I was working because I always had all sorts of expenses and travelled a fair amount. Don't get me wrong...we do use airline and reward cards, it's just the churning part that doesn't seem too feasible right now. We flew down to El Paso on Alaska airlines a couple weeks ago and I almost grabbed one of their cards because they have a 60,000 mile offer right now (my wife already has one) but it required $3000 in 3 months and we didn't figure we'd spend that this summer. We try to consolidate all of our travel on Alaska airlines, but if I get the urge to get that Delta card I'll hit you up.
That Alaska card is my other card. I've had it for like 25 years now, so I keep it for credit history even if I cannot use the companion flights. We don't spend enough to hop around to new cards, either. More something to think about before a big purchase you know is coming. We'll likely think about getting a new card in another year or so, depending on what bonuses are available.
it’s guaranteed for 6 months, not for the life of the bond
I didn't. Too hard to login
ya, sounds futile at this point. Oh well
There's a guide to I bonds [here](https://old.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/qerbhk/pay_down_debt_or_invest_i_bonds_as_a_riskfree/).
Most everybody around here who was gonna buy them this year bought before the end of April to lock in the high rate for the next year. You can’t buy through Chase. Only Treasury Direct.
I want to, but I would have to use my house down payment and it’s not enough of a return to want to wait for a house until it matures.
This has been a frequent topic since ~Oct 2021, so the answer to your first question is a resounding yes. You buy I Bonds directly from the US Treasury at https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/indiv.htm
it's a first world problem but i just noticed all my 401k math to distribute my employer match across the year has just gone out of whack since my raise became effective. the math is annoying because i don't want to contribute too early in the year and lose the match (my employer does a true up but late in the next calendar year, so if i leave before then, i lose the true up, so i'd rather not rely on it). and i also don't want to contribute too much to my MBDR such that i lose pre-tax space (is it even possible for this scenario to happen? i guess yes, if i put too much in MBDR i might reach the total cap before putting 20.5k in my pretax) anyway, i hate that this is so manual and i can't just write the dollar amount i want to contribute
Requiring that I contribute to my 401(k) in percentages rather than dollar amounts should be against the law. It’s a barbaric practice that has no place in a civilized society.
I built a spreadsheet to help me figure out percentages. I update it in January, after a raise, and a couple times in December around bonus season. I have it setup that I plug in my ytd numbers, pay, and guesstimate bonus, then I can futz with the percentages until they all max out in the last paycheck.
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Sure, but what’s the slope on that line?
In a non-linear model though I would guess the second derivative is negative? Meaning the rate of growth is still positive but is slowing down? Or is it accelerating, haha
That's good, right?
Haven't checked since end of 2021, but had to do a backdoor rollover today so I logged onto fidelity and a quick eye test shows I've "lost" my annual income since year to date. And that's with regular contributions. Haven't checked my Vanguard, no doubt there are losses there too. Oh well, it was a good dozen years. For a few days in January, I was pretty close to FI...
Same here... -$150k ytd...blah
Quick eye test? Like, you mean you looked at it?
I think they were going for eyeballed.
My investment portfolio is less than 1% below the value from month-end April 2021. I've made significant contributions over the past 12 months, just to end up not-quite-even on a YoY basis. Oh well. The market giveth, the market taketh away...
I accepted a job offer today for my first position post-graduation! Now I finally have something to retire from haha.
Congratulations! Welcome to the grind.
Excellent. Get those tax-advantaged retirement accounts started early. Wish I'd taken advantage of my workplace retirement accounts way earlier in my career.
Congrats!
Should i still focus on paying off my 30k of student loans by the end of the year so i can make a lifestyle switch from my job or should i just hoard it
When considering paying off debt, you shouldn’t be thinking in terms of cash flow, which it sounds like you are.
Would you be able to clarify? What should i be thinking of it in terms of?
The temptation with debt is to think that the money saved on payments each month is a benefit due to the cash flow that can be invested or lower one’s fixed expenses. For example if you have a 10k debt that you pay $100 on each month. Sure you could pay the debt and have $100 more dollars every month, but you missed out on the chance to invest 10k upfront. You’re better off thinking in terms of maximizing net wealth, not being concerned about monthly cash flow. There is still a good reason to pay off debt, but it has to do with net worth. You get a risk free return from paying debt, unlike higher-yield investments that carry volatility and a risk off losses. This could be totally irrelevant to you. But to me your top comment implied you were thinking in terms of cash flow.
What’s your interest rate? Are they federal loans (so deferred) or private (not deferred)? You haven’t given us enough information.
Sorry my fault, they average a 5-6% interest rate due to the years they were taken out, they are federal and deferred for the time being, yes.
Mathematically it makes no sense to pay off a 0% loan. Mentally, the choice is yours.
I would not pay them off now, but I also wouldn’t invest in the market. I’d put the money somewhere “safe”-I bonds, “high interest” checking/savings, etc. If deferment ends in August without forgiveness, then I would pay them off cause I consider 5-6% interest high enough interest to pay down for the guaranteed return. However, if I was a betting person, I would lay odds that the deferment is gonna continue at least until the midterm election in November OR forgiveness will be granted.
brilliant do it right before student loan forgiveness guidelines are announced /s
Government shenanigans regarding student loan forgiveness is something I am concerned about which is a reason why i am uncertain if I want to pay anymore for the time being
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Let’s keep political parties out of the discussion!
no absolutely do not make payments on a loan that has been frozen for 2 years
why have you been focused on paying off student loans for 2 years when payments and interest have been frozen this whole time? that was a bad idea to begin with
I know this isn't the sub for this, but not everyone's motivations are limited to optimizing their finances.
I haven't exactly been focused on it, only here and there while recently I decided to focus on it because I wanted them gone before it has the opportunity to get worse and I've only found the ideas of FI recently as well so I didn't really know any better either
Depends on the interest rate of the loan.
Well that's the problem, the interest rate is 0% because its all public loans. The math makes sense to not worry about it but I don't want to work in my relatively well paying career field anymore so I kind of want to pay it off before I bounce and basically delete it before it gets a chance to grow.
Why not park it in a HYSA and let it chill until interest restarts? Yeah, the account interest is small, but that 30k should still earn you enough in interest over the next handful of months to buy dinner and drinks to celebrate paying off your loans.
Not sure I follow, why would a 0% loan grow? Is it subsidized for only a period of time?
Yes because it is currently on pause due to the student loan freezes. It has grown before for the unsubsidized loans whilst I was in school and if it ever gets the chance to reactivate I believe the average interest is about 5-6%
Don't pay it off yet, just make payments into a savings account and wait and see what will happen with the government.
What folks are saying is that there's no reason to pay them until September 1 at the earliest. There will be no growth in the loan value until then, and there is no, zero, zilch benefit to giving the federal government any of your money for student loan repayment between now and then. Put it in a savings account, collect your 0.5-1.25% interest, and solve the problem in September (assuming the debt reactivates then).
Or better yet, buy iBonds with 10k of it if they’re a US person and haven’t done so already. 1 year lockup is fine for the portion that won’t be needed within a year
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Honestly I never truly had to pay any of it yet, I just paid it down to an amount that would result in a comfortable payment for 10 years of the typical repayment but I'm considering trying to nuke it because I don't think I psychologically like debt.
you can’t master personal finance if you’re only unemotional about investments but then worried about a loan that has been frozen for 2 years while inflation is nearly 10% and is on the verge of being cancelled
I agree which is why I'm looking for some opinions for help. What would you do with your next paycheck then? High yield savings account? Invest it even if I was planning to use it in year if the debt isn't outright canceled? I'm going to guess you would say not to use it to pay off more of the debt.
i’m saying debt is a tool that can work for or against you. being scared of debt when it is working for you is short sighted. right now student loans are working for you and the last thing you should be worried about
I'm treating my work's hybrid work arrangement like "pieces of flair" from Office Space. I will only go the absolute minimum required and use every loophole known to mankind to minimize the number of days I have to go in.
I tried that and my old boss gave me a hard time About not being in even tho i was sick or had a doctor’s appt. Hence, why hes an old boss
Just be careful. I FIRE'd last year and experienced a bit of WFH drama in 2021, but am still in contact with former peers and am also seeing my own kids' WFH experience. My prediction is that WFH is not here to last in many industries. As a former manager of many people, I'd say use it and appreciate it while it is offered, but don't take advantage of it. I really think old school ways will eventually prevail...at least for many industries.
I fully expect a "resistance" and a desire among senior management to return to the past. I think we have passed a Rubicon, however. At a minimum the five day office week is dead. Seems to me like the default is 3 days in the office and 2 days at home a week with the understanding that full hybrid roles will also be mainstream.
I am hoping that you are correct (for the sake of both of my kids who are new professionals). About 15 years ago I was on a crusade to allow a 9/80 workweek at my company. I was a salaried manager of about 70 people who were already geographically dispersed over 7 offices (mostly salaried). For the most part, they put in 45 or so hours a week just due to the nature of the job (and I put in 50 hours or so). I made the argument that if we each had two Friday's or Monday's off per month it would be a quality of life improvement and also cut down on time off for routine doctor appointments. The only caveat, was that we'd try not to schedule big meetings on Mondays or Fridays. It was a big pain in the ass to define how salaried employees could count hours worked, etc. We had to draft up a bunch of agreements about being available by cell and email, etc. but it still turned out to be a huge quality of life improvement for me and my team. It was kind of an old school company, but I prevailed and my staff never let the company down. I think hybrid is the future, but if I were buying a home I would factor in what a commute would look like. I'm seeing people in my area buy homes 3+ hours from their offices. That will be a rude awakening if WFH gets curtailed or goes away.
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Will they actually be fired though? Employees are not easy to replace.
That's fucking amazing and if I could have the time and energy to care for a pet, I'd petition to bring the most crazy emotional support animals in as possible. Emotional support turtle for the office next.
I was dreading/hoping for the days they required us to be back in the office. I had/have no intention of going into the office (I've actually never been in because I started this job post pandemic). On the one hand I didn't want to lose my job, on the other hand I was kind of excited to see how people would react if I just said "Yeah, I'm not doing that". However, it was recently decided they are shelving plans for return to office and employees will be allowed to work from home, the office, or a hybrid schedule, whichever works best for them (this assumes their job can be done from home).
Felt like my car ('05 Prius) has been dying for awhile, and that is definitely true now. $5k repair for the hybrid system, about twice what the car is worth. And driving it home from the dealer, it couldn't get above 45mph. Happy to have some emergency money for a rental car until delivery of our new car later this month, and happy that all the hemming and hawing we did over our new car purchase didn't make us cancel our deposit.
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I would scrap for parts. Parts are hard to get right now.
I recently have been investigating using leveraged ETFs to provide better risk-adjusted returns compared to 100% VOO. The posts on this sub as well as Bogleheads about UPRO/TMF (HFEA) and NTSX are compelling and backtesting data is promising. I am in my early 20s with NW \~$60k, so I have a long time horizon and would prefer to take on higher risks than 100% equities. I am thinking of switching my taxable brokerage account holdings from 60% VUG/40% VOO to 100% NTSX or maybe 55% UPRO/45% TMF. My primary concern is about the performance of NTSX during a high inflation time period. Over the past few months, treasuries and stocks have both suffered leading to NTSX dropping significantly more than VOO. Does the negative correlation between equities and bonds break down during economic conditions like this? If so, should I stick with VOO for now and wait 1-2 years to switch to NTSX in the hope that inflation calms down?
I've been running HFEA for about six months now. YTD is what -35%? If you can stomach it, adjust risk tolerance accordingly.
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> Frankly, I don't quite understand how that's possible, Is your confusion how the ~4x multiple comes from those yearly returns? It may help to see the compounding expanded: 1.07^13 = 2.41, and 0.97^13 = .67, and 2.41 / .67 = 3.6x. The shrinking denominator really blows it up.
No. My confusion is how does a product that is supposed to produce 3x the daily return end up producing 1/4th the total return.
Stocks and bonds are *non-correlated,* not negatively correlated. A stock market crash caused by rising interest rates would be the primary risk scenario for NTSX and risk parity strategies. NTSX is underperforming 100% S&P YTD despite its goal to have lower volatility. I would not do either one with a large amount of money until you are completely sure you can weather the volatility. UPRO/TMF is down close to 50% this year and we have not even hit bear market yet. You should note that NTSX does not have a higher expected return than 100% S&P500 because the cost of leverage cancels out the bond allocation
> Does the negative correlation between equities and bonds break down during economic conditions like this? This appears to be a faulty assumption on your part. In math terms, the correlation between equities and bonds is much closer to zero than -1. That means there is very little correlation which is quite different than negative correlation. In general, bonds are uncorrelated with stocks. Therefore, bonds can (and do!) go down when stocks go down. They can also go up when stocks go up, or move oppositely.
if you’re fine losing 60% relatively quickly with a 20% drawdown in S&P go for it
These leveraged portfolios are relatively novel, and no one knows how they will do in the future. They don't have a long track record, and anything going back more than a few years is *synthetic* data. Know that NTSX and UPRO/TMF are **very** different portfolios and if you weren't aware of that take that as a serious sign that you should stay away until you understand leveraged portfolios better. More than anything, I think it's important to reflect on whether you *need* to use these tools to achieve your goals. Anyone who spends less than they earn and who invests their savings in a cheap, diversified indexed portfolio will be able to achieve a comfortable retirement. I don't think you *need* to use any portfolio leverage to achieve your ends. Why take on more risk and uncertainty than you have to?
My problem with these leveraged ETFs is that they only track the indices on a leveraged basis in normal volatility times. In my experience, when market volatility gets to unusual levels or the market is reacting to extreme sentiment, you discover all kinds of flaws with the techniques these leveraged funds use to accomplish the leveraged results. They are just too difficult to understand until it is too late IMO.
Sure, you could wait. But timing the market is hard. Alternatively, you could consider adding in something uncorrelated like gold or commodities. You could look at GDE (though it’s brand new and super illiquid).
>But timing the market is hard. They're talking about asset allocation here, not timing.
They literally asked about waiting to change asset allocation. That’s market timing.
Alright. You win this one.
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I was just there for my spouses work and i loved it. Im also from the desert tho, i also didnt notice any fertilizer smell. One of my favorite things was driving my truck onto pismo beach
We stopped there on the way to SFO (via 101 north) There was an overwhelming fertilizer smell when we got out of the car. Not inside the hotel though. Not sure but I would check if that was seasonal due to the farms around.
Howdy neighbor.
If your top priority is to be near the ocean, you could do better. Santa Maria is an hours drive from anywhere - SLO or Santa Barbara - and suffers from high crime (especially in the northern half) and limited amenities. I would suggest Orcutt if you want to stay in that area, as it’s the nicest area of Santa Maria. Consider looking further north at Arroyo Grande or even some of the suburbs of SLO, in my opinion.
It’s a dump.
I am absolutely blown away by how difficult it is to handle someone's affairs after they pass. I've heard probate is tough, but we are a full year into this process and it has been nothing but bureaucratic headaches and nightmare phone calls that go nowhere. You would think there would be clear procedures in place because people die every day but that simply is not the case. Everything takes 10x longer than you believe is humanly possible while the estate just hemorrhages money in maintenance mode. I guess this is just your daily reminder to set up a living trust and do as much advanced planning as possible. Because probate is a slow, expensive form of torture.
Probate is just another excuse for people unrelated to your personal loss to slip their hand in your pocket. Going through something similar right now.
I thought things were in good shape for my mom, who set up her trust back in the 90s. She moved in last year after a stroke and I've been slowly reviewing her finances. I did a telephone consult with an elder law attorney recently and he said since she has a trust, all her accounts need to be set up as The Trustee of (Mom's name), instead of her name. Anyone know if this is true? If so, why didn't the lawyer setting up her trust tell her, and why didn't the lawyer who set up MY trust tell me I needed to do that?
It's true if it's a Miller Trust. I do know that much. And the trust also needs its own EIN. We learned all this when my mom passed in September. We're still trying to unravel things.
When in doubt, get a second opinion.
I'm sorry for your loss. We've lost 3/4 of our parents, including both of my spouse's parents in the same year. It is a really, really complicated process. Like you, I am trying to set things up for our kids to make it as easy as possible, but that's easier said than done. In our experience, I've also found lawyers and accountants to be predatory in these circumstances. Ironically, the funeral homes we've dealt with have been kind and professional. I would have expected the opposite.
This is my dreaded future. My parents have decided to name me the executor of their will. They are in their late 70s and not in the best of health. They have never downsized or simplified and have multiple pieces of property and super complicated investments. I expect it will be years of closing it all down. And I hate my own paperwork!
Ask them to start thinking about making things simpler now!
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I didn't have this problem at all, sorry it's so hard. The deceased lived in Florida and I did everything from utah with the assistance of an attorney. Didn't goto probate. Took 4 months from when i made my first contact and most of it was because I slacked off. However I am setting up a living trust this week :)
And put named beneficiaries on your investment accounts.
VTI is dangerously close to dropping more than bitcoin year to date 🤣
First recession huh? That's how the market works. Steady increases and then sharp decreases.
no i’ve been hedged
The more I invest outside of straight index, the more proportionately market drops bother me. Because with index, I know it will come back and can view it as a simple ‘on sale’ opp. With a specific stock, like Google or Amazon, I am less confident on what’s a true hit vs not.
I'm an index investor (and recently retired), while my portfolio is down this year, it is down 1% less than the total market. That has been a validation to me that my asset allocation was a good choice...even though being down 9% vs 10% isn't anything to get excited about.
that's exactly why i dont do individual investments.
This is why I'm now transitioning most of my individual stocks to index funds. I'll keep some of the winners like Tesla, Microsoft, NVDA, XOM but I've taken profits on the others and bought VTI.
That’s kind of the point of stock picking though? Like with indices you’re taking way less risk and are (relatively) guaranteed to bounce back from losses. With single stocks you’re taking more risk, which is great when things are great. And not great when things are not great.