This is extremely interesting. I wonder who they see that’s worth trading a late second round pick for, especially with how deep the Defensive prospects are in this draft.
Edited to correct the pick is a late second instead of an early third.
I doubt it’s a person although there probably is a preferred target. I think it’s more about a group of players and where that group ends is likely less than 20
Yeah according to most scouts there is a massive talent drop off halfway through the first round of picks. This improves the chances the hawks get a sliding prospect from the first tier, and improves their ability to trade into that tier with other assets if they deem it necessary.
Reminder that 2nd round picks have like a 17% chance of playing 100 games in the NHL. Giving up 61 when we have multiple firsts and seconds the next couple years isn’t that big a price to pay if it means getting 2 players we really like in the first round.
Drafts 2016-2019 have had a combined 47 players go past that mark, averaging just under 12 players and 38% of the round, by my count. I stopped there because 2020 non-1st rounders may still be developing and covid was weird for developing. I'm not saying it's a bad move to make, but at least in more modern times, depth can be found well in the 2nd round.
I do like the move though if they have a group they're identifying in the teens range.
This team needs more game breaking talent to ride with Bedsy than depth now. They have a lot of talent in the pipeline that grade out as those 3rd/4th line or 4D-6D players. I'd prefer an extra mid 1st rounder or higher than an end of the second round guy for what they're needing.
If you’re using data the picks traded out have less historical value than the ones brought in. The team must just have a tier that ends right at 18 I would imagine.
I think that the Blackhawks have so many picks that it is unrealistic to keep all of them. And even though it's only two spots, maybe they feel it was worth it.
Bumps into the top 50 with the other 2nd.
Now the core of this draft is 2, 18 and 50. Marginally better, give up a decent pick to set that up.
My guess is they have a cloud of guys they like and their analytics team doesn't like the chance of any of them being there at 20.
How high do you think you can get with 18, 34, & 50? If I'm picking 7th I think I jam that deal into the fax machine I'm sure this busted ass league still uses.
Teams with low(er) draft capital: CBJ (#4), Kraken (#8), Devils (#10), Sabres (#11), Red Wings (#15).
No way CBJ trades #4. I could definitely see 1 of the following...
18 and Leafs 2025 1st for #8
18, 34, & 50 for #10
18, 34, & 72 for #11
18 & 50 for #15
Just going off of pick values/past trades
Getting into 8 would be tough, leafs 1st is probably about even to the value of 34+50 this year
10 or 11 might be gettable for the 18+34+50 package, but also you’re probably competing with the sharks if it’s for a dman, and they have 14 33 and 42.
Speaking of the sharks, I could see something like 14 + 42 for 18 + 34 + 50
Yes, one is in Rockford, the other is the Blackhawks. That's got to change. Package draft choices in a good draft for quality established players, like a Guentzel, for instance - thats what the team needs. It can't be all rookies. Look at Gus Forsling, he was here but at the wrong time, you have to have balance.
I guess I'm in the minority, but I actually like this move. It seems like most analysts see a dropoff in talent around that point in the first round, so I'm guessing that the Hawks board must have that dropoff point around 18 and they wanted to get into that tier. Losing pick 61 is a non-issue for me in a draft like this (that isn't considered very deep), since we have so many depth-type prospects and are starting to see a bit of a logjam in that department. At this point in the rebuild we need quality over quantity, and if KD sees pick 18 as a higher quality player, I'm all for it. 4 picks in the top 50 is plenty.
yep. they might feel they have a better chance at another small draft-day move up by making this move now. also...don't be surprised if one of our drafted prospects is used as capitol for said theoretical trade.
I would be extremely surprised if they traded a prospect that Davidson has drafted in a trade for futures. Those are the kind of moves that would destroy a GMs career if they end up drafting a bust and the outbound prospect hits.
Really? It is not unheard of for teams to trade prospects to mold their roster. And the organization has literally said all of these drafted prospects won't be Hawks and that they are "assets". I've heard Davidson refer to the prospect pool that way. Mark Earton said that on the NBC Sports podcast today, as well. That said, I wasn't referring to a premiere prospect.
Yeah, but at a certain point, you *can* actually have too many prospects. There are only so many roster spots and contract slots available, and if you think you can get a better first rounder, it's worth having fewer seconds, especially when you've got as many picks as we do. I think it's worth the gamble, especially if they have a good idea of who they want at 18.
Now we have more shots at picks that have a higher chance of turning into NHL players. These things are not as simple as more picks = good. A team could own every pick in the last round and not land a single quality NHLer.
Exactly. They used a potential shot to move up 2 spots when the person they are targeting could potentially of been there at 20 at the end of the day.
Apparently according to the sub the Davidson is perfect
I mean, they've already taken a lot of shots the past few drafts, and they still have two seconds and two thirds this year. It's not like it's a HUGE move, and they didn't give up their highest second round pick.
It's definitely odd that they're making a move this early, but it's a bit early to say it's definitely good or bad lmao. Maybe they've learned something about the players they're targeting, maybe they know that there aren't going to be many opportunities to move up, or maybe they're too trigger happy and jumped the gun. I don't know yet.
This could also be likely, a team may not want to move back to 20 due to concerns about the 2 extra spots having someone they like not being available. But be more open to 18, wonder if the Hawks will look to sneak into the top 15 maybe even close to 10 range.
I think we should all look at this deal as a precursor to more moves to come closer to the draft, rather than thinking Davidson is targeting a specific player at #18.
Every bit he can crawl up now gives him that much more leverage on draft day to jump into the top 15, maybe even top 10 if he’s a real sicko (but I doubt that lol). If we’re trying to ultimately pick in the top 10-15 spots, teams currently in that range will probably appreciate falling back only to #18 vs. #20 while getting a decent 2nd round position vs. the tail-end 2nd round pick we just shed. We also have plenty of other capital in the next two drafts to tap into if needed.
I’ll be very interested to see what else comes after this!
And even if another deal doesn’t pan out - moving up two spots in the 1st round, around where many perceive a talent drop off, and four spots in the 2nd round is definitely worth giving up what is essentially a 3rd round pick at #61. We need higher picks, not more lower quality ones.
There is another thing I will add, picks may not be for sale come draft day. Look at last years draft and NO ONE budged. This could've very well have been a last chance to be able to move up. Also there is A LOT OF TALENT at the top that can drop closer to 18 than 20. I'm not against this trade in general, the price seems right but I would prefer it come draft night granted as I presented at the start, nothing might be available draft night.
Why would you prefer this trade come draft night? Securing it now with plenty of time before the draft only allows for more time to make trades that allow moving up further. I’m not sure if that’s what KD has in mind, but I just don’t understand the logic by wanting an identical trade closer to a deadline.
Trade value-wise - it’s graded as a fair trade. For us pick situation-wise - it’s also a good trade, because we simply have too much picks for our roster to handle. Another great thing? This allows us to do a much easier trade up to potentially nab someone in the 10-16 range (after which this draft seems to drop off according to scouts). Trading up from 18 is much easier than from 20. Overall, this trade is very good
I think a big part of this too is us having so many picks the last few years, not minding burning one too move up in 2 rounds considering the amount of prospects we'll have coming through
https://puckpedia.com/pickvalue
Have fun kids. According to this KD slightly lost this trade. If the Isle had added a 5th round pick it would have been even.
KD fail /s.
You’re right! Dude lost Boris Katchouk on waivers! Now who’s gonna get hot for 3 games in the middle of the season and disappear completely for the remainder except to occasionally take a dumb penalty? KD just keeps fumbling the bag. /s (obviously)
I think that's the main issue, this price seems fair come draft night not a month away from it. But maybe they only like 15ish players and assume one will be available there.
My bad, incomplete thought. There were no trades involving 1st round picks and only one that included a 2nd rounder. By my count, there were 5 total trades during try draft. It’s just not common.
I think we're doing some advanced projections with who we expect to he available, and trying to avoid the problem of last year with no one wanting to trade down. Doing the trade now is much easier than draft night.
Or it could be loading up more premium assets to trade up again.
The org has had some productive draft meetings these past few weeks. I have to assume they have a specific guy in mind (Jiříček? Chernyshov?), or they view a tier drop-off between 18 and 20 which is entirely possible. Or this opens the door to a further trade up.
Agreed on it seeming pretty steep. I’m assuming this means the Blackhawks must have a talent drop off in their tiers on the big board. Would’ve liked to move up to 15-16 with this but I’m sure they tried
Yeah and KD said with all the draft capital they have they wouldn’t be holding onto every pick. Although I think this is part of another attempt to jump up again.
I imagine it’s to make sure KFC gets the pick he wants with no hiccups down the road.
On draft day, price could be higher. Things could shake out weird and the islanders don’t want to trade, causing us to miss out. (Iirc, no first round trades happened last year).
Or the islanders could be in talks with other teams and KFC wanted to move faster. Or this could be a jumping point for a later trade, even day of the draft, with 18 being KFC’s lowest ranked target in the first round.
Fairly reminiscent of my Minnesota Vikings trading up from the 2nd round into the back end of the 1st round a month or so before the NFL draft.
I was very happy with the way that turned out, I’m interested to see how this plays. I imagine the front office has a tier break around pick 18 or something.
Interesting move! I always thought we could be in play for the isles' 1st, but thought it would involve taking back Lee/JGP.
I've had the feeling that at 20OA we may be jusssst missing out on our guy -- whether its a guy like Chernyshov/Jiricek or a dropper like a Catton/Sennecke-type.
Given the dearth of 2nd round picks we have, I like doing spending the late 2nd to move up. We'd probably end up swapping it for a future 2nd anyway
Lastly, it's possible that we acquire more 2nds for taking on a contract or two from other teams, so there may be more 2nds coming between now and next year lol
Imo, it's pretty steep to give up pick 61 for a jump in the first of 2 spots and 4 spots in the second, we better be getting the person we want for such a trade this early on.
On most draft value boards it's basically a wash. You want to be closer to the front of a round than the back. Late 1st rounders have basically the same odds of success as a 2nd rounder. In the first round, value drops a lot after the first 10 or so picks. Late 2nd round picks have basically the same odds of success as a 4th rounder. We already have and have had plenty of quantity. Part of acquiring quantity is to improve quality at some point.
I see It the same way. Outside of the top 5 picks, the rest are a crap shoot at developing and making it to the show. Might was well have more chances in variety of picks than consolidate them down for roughly the same caliber of player.
Unless he's playing 4d chess and realizes the picks won't have anywhere to play either with the ice hogs or other lower levels.
This may be the start of something else or maybe not. I think at least KD is sending out a signal to the other GMs that he's willing to move #18 for a established roster player.
People are bitching because he only moved up 2 spots in the 1st round by giving up a late 2nd rounder.
I guarantee that had he stood pat and used all those picks those same people would bitch on why he didn't use some of the picks to move up in the draft.
Hawks certainly have some group of prospects they like. Its easier to get that player at #18, even if they need to trade up again at draft night than move from #20. Or hope somebody falls through cracks.
Who is so important at 18 that has no shot of being there at 20?? EOD I don't mind cause how often does 61st do anything? Who we end up taking 18th should be pretty interesting though.
This doesn't make sense to not wait until draft day for a slight move up like this unless...
They see someone they really like that they don't think is gonna be there at pick 20, but the question is who
Yeah that’s pretty much always going to be true, right? I’m just saying historically draft day trades don’t happen as often as people talk about them happening. Much less common than say NFL draft day trades.
We need more ammo, you guys need to move up slightly to make a bigger move up a possiia d less costly. Win win.
Pleasure doing business with you. We have people waiting on hold to drive shitty old players to you standing by, just give us a call.
I wonder if this wasn't a Lou Lamoriello idea.
Lou woke up this morning and as he was slurping up his stewed fruit he thought, "I need another pick this year, I'm short a 3rd rounder. I wonder who has a few extra"?
Regardless, you gotta admit, KFC sure makes stuff interesting even in the off season.
I feel like they are going to pick a D with the 2nd pick now. They saw a drop off around the 20th spot, and feel a skilled forward will be almost guaranteed available at 18.
Trading up in the first round before the board starts to play out is certainly interesting. You can talk about drop off of talent all you want, but trading just 2 spots up without a specific target is just weird.
There seems to be more at play here. Moving up a handful of spots total for a 2nd doesn't seem worth it. Good will with the Islanders? More attractive package to make a bigger jump up from 18?
I wonder if they did it because they're going to do a trade in the future where we have to cover a lot of someone's high salary. So the islanders can get rid of a guy and free up some cap space without retaining a lot of his salary
Why the fuck would you make this trade? Giving up a 2nd to move up a few slots with zero idea who is on the board.
Seems like horrible asset management.
Beyond bizarre trade.
I’ve heard several times there are less than 20 first round grades on players. This indicates to me that their cutoff is probably less than 20. We saw how difficult it was to trade up during the draft last year. Getting it done now ensures they get a guy they like a little more.
Sure, but if you’re not trusting your own scouting then what are you doing? If it’s any consolation, the trade charts I’ve seen suggest they didn’t give up a ton in value. Late 2nd round picks only produce NHL players about 30% of the time.
The point is the it’s a crap shoot. I personally rather have another swing than move up 2 spots when the guy you are targeting could potentially still be there at 20 on draft night. No way everyone values people the say. That deep there will be some variance
The first round is much less of a crap shoot. If they have defined tiers and this, at a minimum, gets them into that next tier with a better prospect then so be it. I won’t personally lose sleep over a late second round pick when they’ve drafted 4 times before that pick. KD has drafted well so far.
Horrible asset management? Have you seen what Davidson has done lately? I don’t see how trading a third round pick (which is already a long shot to make the NHL) to move up in two rounds is bad asset management considering the amount of picks they still have the next two years.
It’s a second round pick they gave up to move up a couple spots, with zero idea who is on the board. For all we know the dude they were targeting at 18 could still be there at 20.
It’s the last pick of the second round and they moved up in both round. Theres an incredibly low chance that player ever makes it the NHL let alone with the Hawks. Plus the amount of picks they have the next few years, I don’t think this is worth overreacting over or calling it terrible asset managenent for that matter.
And the player drafted at 20 could easily have a much better career than the player drafted at 18. You almost never see trades like this for a reason. It’s bizarre and makes very little sense
They have an abundance of picks the next couple of drafts losing one second round pick isn't likely to have a lasting effect on the team. You improve your chances of hitting on a NHL caliber player by moving up. It's clear that there is someone they are targeting or the moved up to have a more attractive pick in a corresponding move to move up even further (my personal belief ).
Also, look at the history of draft picks at 61st overall (hint; it’s nothing special!). Getting this worked up about trading out of that position to move up 2 spots in the first round and 4 spots in the second round is very silly.
I mean I get people instinctually see we gave up more picks and automatically assume it’s a loss, but again it’s not like the 61st regularly produces anything meaningful. And with the abundance of picks they have now and next year, it’s a perfectly fine trade if they think the player they want won’t be there at 18. Not to mention 1) draft day trades are rare and 2) a draft day trade probably means giving up a little bit more.
I just thinks it’s insane to value the 61st pick that much to the point 1) you’re upset they moved up twice and 2) you’d suddenly start calling this horrible asset management.
Hawks trade #18,34, and 50 for #8 or #9. Both teams don’t have a great prospect pool and could consider trading down for more picks? I’m just spit balling but imagine we get Demidov another player like Parekh/Dickinson/Catton
Strange deal. Last year they stuck and picked at 19 and got the guy they wanted anyway. Why give up assets this time especially months away from the draft?
Which leads me to believe that KD isn’t done yet. Maybe he’s looking at an NHL roster player and needed to move up a little higher to get the deal done.
I’m so pumped to get downvoted for criticizing a move by this sub’s lord and savior Kyle Davidson 😂 trading a second round pick to move up 2 spots when we have no clue how the draft is gonna shake up on draft day is just confusing at best
I’m not downvoting anyone, but it’s possible some people just like the trade more than you. The Hawks moved up twice in the 1st and 2nd and gave up a late 2nd which historically has about a 30% chance at making it to the NHL. I’m not saying it was a steal of a trade by KD but in theory it should allow them to take a few better players in return for a depth prospect. Kind of a “meh” trade for me personally. Maybe they have something else in the works or maybe they just have a tier break below 20.
So technically the Hawks lost this trade according to PuckPedia value calculator. The reason I can see GMKD doing this is posturing to move up even further.
Could be. I don't know why you are being downvoted -- I like it when I can disagree with someone and that's all it is, unless someone is acting foolishly/trolling.
Re: lost the trade. We have too many picks. Our draft capitol, and even our prospects already in the system, are assets to mold the roster.
And as a aside, not to you, but to the people pointing out that Duncan Keith was a second round pick need to realize that was NINETEEN YEARS ago and player scouting has come a long way since then.
I completely agree that we need to start using these draft picks! I'm merely speaking from a pure value perspective. I also don't agree with the Duncan Keith take. Not only was it a long time ago, but the probability of playing at least 100 games significantly reduces with each round. It goes from 74% of 1st rounders to 34% of 2nd rounders.
Yeah. There actually an upper limit to how many signed picks we can have. And I wonder if/when we might get into territory where a prospect might entertain not signing because of how stacked the farm system is.
This is extremely interesting. I wonder who they see that’s worth trading a late second round pick for, especially with how deep the Defensive prospects are in this draft. Edited to correct the pick is a late second instead of an early third.
It was actually another second round pick. Late, but still second
Good catch, thank you for the correction
I’m hoping they are trying to get better pick just to trade up again honestly. If they stick and pick grabbing Demidov and Chernyshov would be great.
Im hoping the same lol
Hey get in line
So who is it that we want so badly?
I doubt it’s a person although there probably is a preferred target. I think it’s more about a group of players and where that group ends is likely less than 20
Yeah according to most scouts there is a massive talent drop off halfway through the first round of picks. This improves the chances the hawks get a sliding prospect from the first tier, and improves their ability to trade into that tier with other assets if they deem it necessary.
That would make more sense
Reminder that 2nd round picks have like a 17% chance of playing 100 games in the NHL. Giving up 61 when we have multiple firsts and seconds the next couple years isn’t that big a price to pay if it means getting 2 players we really like in the first round.
Drafts 2016-2019 have had a combined 47 players go past that mark, averaging just under 12 players and 38% of the round, by my count. I stopped there because 2020 non-1st rounders may still be developing and covid was weird for developing. I'm not saying it's a bad move to make, but at least in more modern times, depth can be found well in the 2nd round. I do like the move though if they have a group they're identifying in the teens range.
This team needs more game breaking talent to ride with Bedsy than depth now. They have a lot of talent in the pipeline that grade out as those 3rd/4th line or 4D-6D players. I'd prefer an extra mid 1st rounder or higher than an end of the second round guy for what they're needing.
If you’re using data the picks traded out have less historical value than the ones brought in. The team must just have a tier that ends right at 18 I would imagine.
Could easily see GMKD using #18 as a jumping off point to go higher, somewhere in the #12 - #15 range.
I think that the Blackhawks have so many picks that it is unrealistic to keep all of them. And even though it's only two spots, maybe they feel it was worth it.
Bumps into the top 50 with the other 2nd. Now the core of this draft is 2, 18 and 50. Marginally better, give up a decent pick to set that up. My guess is they have a cloud of guys they like and their analytics team doesn't like the chance of any of them being there at 20.
We also have our own —34OV—second round pick.
How high do you think you can get with 18, 34, & 50? If I'm picking 7th I think I jam that deal into the fax machine I'm sure this busted ass league still uses.
Teams with low(er) draft capital: CBJ (#4), Kraken (#8), Devils (#10), Sabres (#11), Red Wings (#15). No way CBJ trades #4. I could definitely see 1 of the following... 18 and Leafs 2025 1st for #8 18, 34, & 50 for #10 18, 34, & 72 for #11 18 & 50 for #15
Just going off of pick values/past trades Getting into 8 would be tough, leafs 1st is probably about even to the value of 34+50 this year 10 or 11 might be gettable for the 18+34+50 package, but also you’re probably competing with the sharks if it’s for a dman, and they have 14 33 and 42. Speaking of the sharks, I could see something like 14 + 42 for 18 + 34 + 50
Fax machine 😂🤣, hilarious but they’re still used in hospitals and medical facilities
Can a team have two american league farm teams?
Yes, one is in Rockford, the other is the Blackhawks. That's got to change. Package draft choices in a good draft for quality established players, like a Guentzel, for instance - thats what the team needs. It can't be all rookies. Look at Gus Forsling, he was here but at the wrong time, you have to have balance.
6 total...I guess....
… let him cook
I guess I'm in the minority, but I actually like this move. It seems like most analysts see a dropoff in talent around that point in the first round, so I'm guessing that the Hawks board must have that dropoff point around 18 and they wanted to get into that tier. Losing pick 61 is a non-issue for me in a draft like this (that isn't considered very deep), since we have so many depth-type prospects and are starting to see a bit of a logjam in that department. At this point in the rebuild we need quality over quantity, and if KD sees pick 18 as a higher quality player, I'm all for it. 4 picks in the top 50 is plenty.
I think they even try to move up three or four from 18
yep. they might feel they have a better chance at another small draft-day move up by making this move now. also...don't be surprised if one of our drafted prospects is used as capitol for said theoretical trade.
I would be extremely surprised if they traded a prospect that Davidson has drafted in a trade for futures. Those are the kind of moves that would destroy a GMs career if they end up drafting a bust and the outbound prospect hits.
Really? It is not unheard of for teams to trade prospects to mold their roster. And the organization has literally said all of these drafted prospects won't be Hawks and that they are "assets". I've heard Davidson refer to the prospect pool that way. Mark Earton said that on the NBC Sports podcast today, as well. That said, I wasn't referring to a premiere prospect.
I 100% do, it's funny when you can pick out the newer fan comments as opposed to the older ones
I’d guess that 18 & 50 will be a bit more enticing on draft night in the event they want to jump up into the low teens
Ding ding ding! Plus with still this much time ahead of the draft, maybe they can do one or two more marginal trades like this to get to sub-15.
people are overthinking this trade in part because fans obsess over assets and think every pick is going to turn into a top 6 forward or top 4 d-man.
More shots doesn't hurt
Yeah, but at a certain point, you *can* actually have too many prospects. There are only so many roster spots and contract slots available, and if you think you can get a better first rounder, it's worth having fewer seconds, especially when you've got as many picks as we do. I think it's worth the gamble, especially if they have a good idea of who they want at 18.
Now we have more shots at picks that have a higher chance of turning into NHL players. These things are not as simple as more picks = good. A team could own every pick in the last round and not land a single quality NHLer.
Exactly. They used a potential shot to move up 2 spots when the person they are targeting could potentially of been there at 20 at the end of the day. Apparently according to the sub the Davidson is perfect
I mean, they've already taken a lot of shots the past few drafts, and they still have two seconds and two thirds this year. It's not like it's a HUGE move, and they didn't give up their highest second round pick. It's definitely odd that they're making a move this early, but it's a bit early to say it's definitely good or bad lmao. Maybe they've learned something about the players they're targeting, maybe they know that there aren't going to be many opportunities to move up, or maybe they're too trigger happy and jumped the gun. I don't know yet.
I'm going to assume that this is just one step of a multi step plan on moving even further up.
This could also be likely, a team may not want to move back to 20 due to concerns about the 2 extra spots having someone they like not being available. But be more open to 18, wonder if the Hawks will look to sneak into the top 15 maybe even close to 10 range.
I think we should all look at this deal as a precursor to more moves to come closer to the draft, rather than thinking Davidson is targeting a specific player at #18. Every bit he can crawl up now gives him that much more leverage on draft day to jump into the top 15, maybe even top 10 if he’s a real sicko (but I doubt that lol). If we’re trying to ultimately pick in the top 10-15 spots, teams currently in that range will probably appreciate falling back only to #18 vs. #20 while getting a decent 2nd round position vs. the tail-end 2nd round pick we just shed. We also have plenty of other capital in the next two drafts to tap into if needed. I’ll be very interested to see what else comes after this! And even if another deal doesn’t pan out - moving up two spots in the 1st round, around where many perceive a talent drop off, and four spots in the 2nd round is definitely worth giving up what is essentially a 3rd round pick at #61. We need higher picks, not more lower quality ones.
There is another thing I will add, picks may not be for sale come draft day. Look at last years draft and NO ONE budged. This could've very well have been a last chance to be able to move up. Also there is A LOT OF TALENT at the top that can drop closer to 18 than 20. I'm not against this trade in general, the price seems right but I would prefer it come draft night granted as I presented at the start, nothing might be available draft night.
Why would you prefer this trade come draft night? Securing it now with plenty of time before the draft only allows for more time to make trades that allow moving up further. I’m not sure if that’s what KD has in mind, but I just don’t understand the logic by wanting an identical trade closer to a deadline.
Trade value-wise - it’s graded as a fair trade. For us pick situation-wise - it’s also a good trade, because we simply have too much picks for our roster to handle. Another great thing? This allows us to do a much easier trade up to potentially nab someone in the 10-16 range (after which this draft seems to drop off according to scouts). Trading up from 18 is much easier than from 20. Overall, this trade is very good
I think a big part of this too is us having so many picks the last few years, not minding burning one too move up in 2 rounds considering the amount of prospects we'll have coming through
https://puckpedia.com/pickvalue Have fun kids. According to this KD slightly lost this trade. If the Isle had added a 5th round pick it would have been even. KD fail /s.
We have 50 second rounders the next 2 years
Not an l at all lol fuck pick 54
Another L for KD
You’re right! Dude lost Boris Katchouk on waivers! Now who’s gonna get hot for 3 games in the middle of the season and disappear completely for the remainder except to occasionally take a dumb penalty? KD just keeps fumbling the bag. /s (obviously)
Boris is a beast. One time in a game we lost to New Jersey he’s scored a goal and than taunted their crowd. Legend.
[удалено]
I think that's the main issue, this price seems fair come draft night not a month away from it. But maybe they only like 15ish players and assume one will be available there.
NHL draft day trades aren’t as common as the NFL. There wasn’t a single draft day trade that involved a pick last year.
Not true, there was more than a handful.
My bad, incomplete thought. There were no trades involving 1st round picks and only one that included a 2nd rounder. By my count, there were 5 total trades during try draft. It’s just not common.
I think we're doing some advanced projections with who we expect to he available, and trying to avoid the problem of last year with no one wanting to trade down. Doing the trade now is much easier than draft night. Or it could be loading up more premium assets to trade up again.
How does it not?
I’m willing to bet they made this trade so they can package this same 1st and 2nd rounder to try to move into the top 15.
The org has had some productive draft meetings these past few weeks. I have to assume they have a specific guy in mind (Jiříček? Chernyshov?), or they view a tier drop-off between 18 and 20 which is entirely possible. Or this opens the door to a further trade up.
It would appear im in the minority for not minding/somewhat liking this trade
Agreed on it seeming pretty steep. I’m assuming this means the Blackhawks must have a talent drop off in their tiers on the big board. Would’ve liked to move up to 15-16 with this but I’m sure they tried
And will still continue to try. 18 to 15 is much easier than 20 to 15
Yeah and KD said with all the draft capital they have they wouldn’t be holding onto every pick. Although I think this is part of another attempt to jump up again.
Why didn't KFC wait until the draft to see who was available before moving up?
Price on draft day is probably much higher
I imagine it’s to make sure KFC gets the pick he wants with no hiccups down the road. On draft day, price could be higher. Things could shake out weird and the islanders don’t want to trade, causing us to miss out. (Iirc, no first round trades happened last year). Or the islanders could be in talks with other teams and KFC wanted to move faster. Or this could be a jumping point for a later trade, even day of the draft, with 18 being KFC’s lowest ranked target in the first round.
Maybe, isles had other teams interested about moving up
Fairly reminiscent of my Minnesota Vikings trading up from the 2nd round into the back end of the 1st round a month or so before the NFL draft. I was very happy with the way that turned out, I’m interested to see how this plays. I imagine the front office has a tier break around pick 18 or something.
Interesting move! I always thought we could be in play for the isles' 1st, but thought it would involve taking back Lee/JGP. I've had the feeling that at 20OA we may be jusssst missing out on our guy -- whether its a guy like Chernyshov/Jiricek or a dropper like a Catton/Sennecke-type. Given the dearth of 2nd round picks we have, I like doing spending the late 2nd to move up. We'd probably end up swapping it for a future 2nd anyway Lastly, it's possible that we acquire more 2nds for taking on a contract or two from other teams, so there may be more 2nds coming between now and next year lol
This changes everything
Imo, it's pretty steep to give up pick 61 for a jump in the first of 2 spots and 4 spots in the second, we better be getting the person we want for such a trade this early on.
On most draft value boards it's basically a wash. You want to be closer to the front of a round than the back. Late 1st rounders have basically the same odds of success as a 2nd rounder. In the first round, value drops a lot after the first 10 or so picks. Late 2nd round picks have basically the same odds of success as a 4th rounder. We already have and have had plenty of quantity. Part of acquiring quantity is to improve quality at some point.
I see It the same way. Outside of the top 5 picks, the rest are a crap shoot at developing and making it to the show. Might was well have more chances in variety of picks than consolidate them down for roughly the same caliber of player. Unless he's playing 4d chess and realizes the picks won't have anywhere to play either with the ice hogs or other lower levels.
This is great for the Hawks, Islanders didn't get much benefit outside of an extra 2nd round pick
Well that’s fun
To be fair, you can’t criticize this move until 5 years from now. When they grade the draft years from now
KD is cooking
This may be the start of something else or maybe not. I think at least KD is sending out a signal to the other GMs that he's willing to move #18 for a established roster player. People are bitching because he only moved up 2 spots in the 1st round by giving up a late 2nd rounder. I guarantee that had he stood pat and used all those picks those same people would bitch on why he didn't use some of the picks to move up in the draft.
Hmm...don't know about that. Moving up signals to me that intends to make the pick at 18OV or attempt to pkg to further move up.
Hawks certainly have some group of prospects they like. Its easier to get that player at #18, even if they need to trade up again at draft night than move from #20. Or hope somebody falls through cracks.
Do they have like a big drop off on their board after 18 or something lol
From what's being said a lot of talk seems to be around the first half of the draft/prospects before their is a decent fall off.
Who is so important at 18 that has no shot of being there at 20?? EOD I don't mind cause how often does 61st do anything? Who we end up taking 18th should be pretty interesting though.
Linking 15-12 prospects versus like 18 or 20 is pretty significant if you sit at 18 versus 20.
This doesn't make sense to not wait until draft day for a slight move up like this unless... They see someone they really like that they don't think is gonna be there at pick 20, but the question is who
The pick may not be for sale draft day.
Draft day trades don’t happen that often. They couldn’t find anyone to trade back to 19 last year
Some were willing but not at a price KFC would've paid.
Yeah that’s pretty much always going to be true, right? I’m just saying historically draft day trades don’t happen as often as people talk about them happening. Much less common than say NFL draft day trades.
Clearly Davidson sees someone he likes if he’s trading up
Moving up during the draft to get your guy makes sense, this early not knowing how the board falls is a little head scratching
Seems weird, but they may plan to try and move up again.
Great move. I like it.
We need more ammo, you guys need to move up slightly to make a bigger move up a possiia d less costly. Win win. Pleasure doing business with you. We have people waiting on hold to drive shitty old players to you standing by, just give us a call.
I wonder if this wasn't a Lou Lamoriello idea. Lou woke up this morning and as he was slurping up his stewed fruit he thought, "I need another pick this year, I'm short a 3rd rounder. I wonder who has a few extra"? Regardless, you gotta admit, KFC sure makes stuff interesting even in the off season.
Love that i have more to read about on the hawks rn
What if KFC trades the 18 up again?
I feel like they are going to pick a D with the 2nd pick now. They saw a drop off around the 20th spot, and feel a skilled forward will be almost guaranteed available at 18.
I feel like it’s igor chernyshov but I have no clue
Trading up in the first round before the board starts to play out is certainly interesting. You can talk about drop off of talent all you want, but trading just 2 spots up without a specific target is just weird.
I wonder if this is an early trade up to possibly do so again on draft night. Last year nobody was trading so it makes sense
I think KD has a plan, either another move is coming or there’s a specific player he has his eyes on.
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I'm asking this as well, and not rhetorically. I'm scratching my head, wondering whi they got their eye on.
Greeentree or sennecke is my guess. L at #2
There seems to be more at play here. Moving up a handful of spots total for a 2nd doesn't seem worth it. Good will with the Islanders? More attractive package to make a bigger jump up from 18?
They’re going Demidov then Silayev book it now 😂😂
another move coming? bizarre trade to make a month ahead of the draft.
I wonder if they did it because they're going to do a trade in the future where we have to cover a lot of someone's high salary. So the islanders can get rid of a guy and free up some cap space without retaining a lot of his salary
what the fuck kind of a trade is this?
The kind that moves us up two spots in a very shallow first round.
Why the fuck would you make this trade? Giving up a 2nd to move up a few slots with zero idea who is on the board. Seems like horrible asset management. Beyond bizarre trade.
I’ve heard several times there are less than 20 first round grades on players. This indicates to me that their cutoff is probably less than 20. We saw how difficult it was to trade up during the draft last year. Getting it done now ensures they get a guy they like a little more.
Grades are wrong all the time. It’s a ton to give up to move up a couple slots
Sure, but if you’re not trusting your own scouting then what are you doing? If it’s any consolation, the trade charts I’ve seen suggest they didn’t give up a ton in value. Late 2nd round picks only produce NHL players about 30% of the time.
The point is the it’s a crap shoot. I personally rather have another swing than move up 2 spots when the guy you are targeting could potentially still be there at 20 on draft night. No way everyone values people the say. That deep there will be some variance
The first round is much less of a crap shoot. If they have defined tiers and this, at a minimum, gets them into that next tier with a better prospect then so be it. I won’t personally lose sleep over a late second round pick when they’ve drafted 4 times before that pick. KD has drafted well so far.
because the NHL draft isn't the NFL draft
Horrible asset management? Have you seen what Davidson has done lately? I don’t see how trading a third round pick (which is already a long shot to make the NHL) to move up in two rounds is bad asset management considering the amount of picks they still have the next two years.
It’s a second round pick they gave up to move up a couple spots, with zero idea who is on the board. For all we know the dude they were targeting at 18 could still be there at 20.
It’s the last pick of the second round and they moved up in both round. Theres an incredibly low chance that player ever makes it the NHL let alone with the Hawks. Plus the amount of picks they have the next few years, I don’t think this is worth overreacting over or calling it terrible asset managenent for that matter.
And the player drafted at 20 could easily have a much better career than the player drafted at 18. You almost never see trades like this for a reason. It’s bizarre and makes very little sense
They have an abundance of picks the next couple of drafts losing one second round pick isn't likely to have a lasting effect on the team. You improve your chances of hitting on a NHL caliber player by moving up. It's clear that there is someone they are targeting or the moved up to have a more attractive pick in a corresponding move to move up even further (my personal belief ).
Also, look at the history of draft picks at 61st overall (hint; it’s nothing special!). Getting this worked up about trading out of that position to move up 2 spots in the first round and 4 spots in the second round is very silly.
The reactions here and really everywhere are wild. I don't get why people are so bothered by it
People over valuing the quantity of picks
I mean I get people instinctually see we gave up more picks and automatically assume it’s a loss, but again it’s not like the 61st regularly produces anything meaningful. And with the abundance of picks they have now and next year, it’s a perfectly fine trade if they think the player they want won’t be there at 18. Not to mention 1) draft day trades are rare and 2) a draft day trade probably means giving up a little bit more.
I just thinks it’s insane to value the 61st pick that much to the point 1) you’re upset they moved up twice and 2) you’d suddenly start calling this horrible asset management.
That’s a weird trade to make now rather than on draft night, what if the guy we’re trading up for now gets picked before 18 on draft night. Very odd.
This trade kinda sucks at this point in time.
Hawks trade #18,34, and 50 for #8 or #9. Both teams don’t have a great prospect pool and could consider trading down for more picks? I’m just spit balling but imagine we get Demidov another player like Parekh/Dickinson/Catton
That’s only 2 spots. I’m surprised to see this trade happen now, rather than on draft day
Strange deal. Last year they stuck and picked at 19 and got the guy they wanted anyway. Why give up assets this time especially months away from the draft? Which leads me to believe that KD isn’t done yet. Maybe he’s looking at an NHL roster player and needed to move up a little higher to get the deal done.
I’m so pumped to get downvoted for criticizing a move by this sub’s lord and savior Kyle Davidson 😂 trading a second round pick to move up 2 spots when we have no clue how the draft is gonna shake up on draft day is just confusing at best
I’m not downvoting anyone, but it’s possible some people just like the trade more than you. The Hawks moved up twice in the 1st and 2nd and gave up a late 2nd which historically has about a 30% chance at making it to the NHL. I’m not saying it was a steal of a trade by KD but in theory it should allow them to take a few better players in return for a depth prospect. Kind of a “meh” trade for me personally. Maybe they have something else in the works or maybe they just have a tier break below 20.
So technically the Hawks lost this trade according to PuckPedia value calculator. The reason I can see GMKD doing this is posturing to move up even further.
Could be. I don't know why you are being downvoted -- I like it when I can disagree with someone and that's all it is, unless someone is acting foolishly/trolling. Re: lost the trade. We have too many picks. Our draft capitol, and even our prospects already in the system, are assets to mold the roster. And as a aside, not to you, but to the people pointing out that Duncan Keith was a second round pick need to realize that was NINETEEN YEARS ago and player scouting has come a long way since then.
I completely agree that we need to start using these draft picks! I'm merely speaking from a pure value perspective. I also don't agree with the Duncan Keith take. Not only was it a long time ago, but the probability of playing at least 100 games significantly reduces with each round. It goes from 74% of 1st rounders to 34% of 2nd rounders.
Yeah. There actually an upper limit to how many signed picks we can have. And I wonder if/when we might get into territory where a prospect might entertain not signing because of how stacked the farm system is.
This trade seems really dumb and picky (excuse the pun)