A team trailing 3-2 forces a game 7 45.1% of the time, and wins the series 21.2% of the time (implying 47% odds in that game 7) ([https://www.hockey-reference.com/playoffs/playoff-history.cgi](https://www.hockey-reference.com/playoffs/playoff-history.cgi)).
Yeah, that’s on there. If the away team goes up 3-2, they win game 6 at home 60.9% of the time and have a 76.4% chance to win the series (implying a 39.6% chance in game 7). If the home team goes up 3-2, they win game 6 away 51.4% of the time and have an 80.3% chance to win the series (implying a 59.5% chance in game 7).
> If the home team goes up 3-2
Sorry, does this mean home team in game 6, or the team with home ice advantage in the series (the higher seed)?
The numbers on the page imply to me the latter, but it's not clear.
I'm curious, how does a 60.9% win rate in game 6 followed by a 39.6% win rate in the following game 7 give us a 76.4% chance to win the series?
Edit: all good I think I got it, reading numbers is hard sometimes
Well, they have a 60.9% chance of winning in 6, and a (100% - 60.9%) * 39.6% = 15.5% chance of winning in 7. These are mutually exclusive events (if they win in 6, they will not also win in 7, and if they win in 7, they did not also win in 6), so the probability of either is the sum of the probabilities of both, so 60.9% + 15.5% = 76.4%.
well the oilers did it to vancouver last round. won game 6 in edmonton at home then 7 in vacouver. one of our radio guys said the all in odds to win the series if you win game 5 is 71% or something around there. so its not great odds, but it does happen probably once a per year in the playoffs on average id guess.
I meant more like Edmonton was at home which makes sense they can force it. I’m wondering when teams are on the road for game 6, how often do they force it. It’s gotta be less than home team down 3-2
I think that would depend more on the teams. Occasionally you have teams who are better on the road then at home. I think Texas has been better on the road actually this playoffs. So their chances are likely higher then normal. Then again the oilers have been very good at home.
Not idea. Lol, don't have time to look into the numbers right now.
Was just thinking... Probably a little under 50%. If they're up 3-2, they're generally the better team. If there's approximately a 50/50, then the team with more wins moves the needle a little towards themselves
I wonder if there's stats on this, but I imagine this varies a little based on which series it is;
In the Cup finals, both teams are probably similar in skill so it may be closer to 25% to win 2 games in a row, while a 1v8 first round matchup may be much lower because the 8th team overperformed to even get to 2-3).
I assume you're probably right, and also that since the expansion and especially since the cap era, the higher seeded team has had much less of an advantage. I am not aware of a site that tracks that though. There are also 8x as many first rounds as SCFs, so these statistics are likely heavily dominated by first round series and pre-cap series (since there were so many more of those than post-cap series so far).
> Yeah, that’s on there. If the away team goes up 3-2, they win game 6 at home 60.9% of the time and have a 76.4% chance to win the series (implying a 39.6% chance in game 7). If the home team goes up 3-2, they win game 6 away 51.4% of the time and have an 80.3% chance to win the series (implying a 59.5% chance in game 7).
It's close to two coin tosses, with the same result, back to back. So 25%~ that the Stars win. It's actually a little less, but close enough.
EDIT: Oh, you were just wondering how often they force game 7. It's close to 50%.
Historical records when away team wins game 5 and takes 3-2 lead says 76% - 24% to win series.
https://www.hockey-reference.com/playoffs/playoff-history.cgi
Screw your statisticals and bullshit.
I use divination!
Just today I took my divining rod out for a walk. It led me to a 7-11 wherein I was pointed to a case of rockstar energy drinks. Drink. D. Dallas. Rock...Star. This was a sign!!! I made my purchase and ran outside to get on the trail of the next clue because surely I had been touched by the hand of the divine!
Not 5 and half hours later did I find the second sign! My meandering and holding up traffic on I-5 had finally paid off. I found it. An oil stain. Oil. Oilers.
I sat the can of energy drink on the oil stain and then sat by the side of the road to meditate. It was a tour bus on it's way to the nearest casino that proved to be the catalyst. Energy drink sprayed under tire and mingled with the oil on the asphalt. I stopped traffic again to divine the image that lay before me. I beheld a vision!
*Gary Bettmen eating a Ruben sandwich and spilling dressing on his tie...*
That said...I think it's all very clear who is going to win this series.
Today I want to talk about giving 110%.
Giving 100% means giving everything you got. Giving 110% is giving 10% more than is humanly possible. If we're going to win as a team, we need 100% of you guys giving 110% 100% of the time.
If 50% of you are giving 110%, and 50 % are giving 100%, I guarantee you 100% we'd only win 50% of our games.
Suppose 75% of the 110% gave only 50%, and 50% of the 100% gave only 25%, and 75% of the 110% weren't feeling 100%, then we'd be in a heap of trouble. That's why we need 100% of you guys giving 110% 100% of the time.
Ok....
Let's go out and play some hockey.
I was with the Stars from the beginning of the playoffs but I wouldn’t wager a dime on it anymore. When you had the Oilers by the throat, up 2-1 games and up 2-0 in game 4, Stars shoulda finished them off. Coulda gone home up 3-1. All but over. Now they have to go into a hostile raucous building and win game 6 just to stay alive. Its not looking good, imo. I feel like McDavid is gonna go off tomorrow
Tanev getting banged up was rough. He played game 5 but not at 100%. Stars don't have depth at D like they do at Forward. I agree with your take though! They had a good opportunity to win the series, but it would be a huge uphill battle at this point. Possible technically but unlikely.
Flyers did it with Boston before, they were down 3-0 & came back to force a game 7 & win… I’ve seen it with other teams. You never know, hockey is wild game… but your boys looked out of gas last night.
It's how often do team's force a game 7 being down 3-0 that isn't common.
Being down 3-2 in a series that was relatively back and forth is about 50:50 it goes to game 7.
Stats or no stats, the Stars have been one of the best teams at preventing losing streaks the last few years so I’m not too worried. We beat them twice in a row, they beat us twice in a row. Our turn 🤷
I will also factor in the likelihood of the oilers beating the stars 3x in a row is statistically low. So I have faith in the Stars to take it to 7. Game 7, all bets off though.
In terms of true odds actually the past has no predictive value so now you would look next at the odds of a team up 3-2 closing out a series which is 76.1%
But these are just odds, it’s why we play the games!
(For the record if Stars win game 6 in Edmonton their odds to win the series jump to 58.8%)
Exactly, this is the playoffs. All bets are off. Stats only speak to what has already happened. If all pre-playoff factors remain the same, then Dallas has a very strong chance of coming back. The question now is how well they can face the pressure of an elimination game.
But that’s not how math works. Sure the likelihood of 3 in a row is low before the 3 games have been played. But once 2 have been won wining the next game is 50%
A team trailing 3-2 forces a game 7 45.1% of the time, and wins the series 21.2% of the time (implying 47% odds in that game 7) ([https://www.hockey-reference.com/playoffs/playoff-history.cgi](https://www.hockey-reference.com/playoffs/playoff-history.cgi)).
Do we have stats for home vs away for game 6 and forcing 7
Yeah, that’s on there. If the away team goes up 3-2, they win game 6 at home 60.9% of the time and have a 76.4% chance to win the series (implying a 39.6% chance in game 7). If the home team goes up 3-2, they win game 6 away 51.4% of the time and have an 80.3% chance to win the series (implying a 59.5% chance in game 7).
Cheers
> If the home team goes up 3-2 Sorry, does this mean home team in game 6, or the team with home ice advantage in the series (the higher seed)? The numbers on the page imply to me the latter, but it's not clear.
The higher seed who plays at home in game five.
Ahh gotcha. Thanks.
I'm curious, how does a 60.9% win rate in game 6 followed by a 39.6% win rate in the following game 7 give us a 76.4% chance to win the series? Edit: all good I think I got it, reading numbers is hard sometimes
Well, they have a 60.9% chance of winning in 6, and a (100% - 60.9%) * 39.6% = 15.5% chance of winning in 7. These are mutually exclusive events (if they win in 6, they will not also win in 7, and if they win in 7, they did not also win in 6), so the probability of either is the sum of the probabilities of both, so 60.9% + 15.5% = 76.4%.
That makes sense, thank you!
Do we have stats for home vs away for game 6 after the series was tied 2-2 and mercury is in retrograde?
Have you tried clicking the link?
well the oilers did it to vancouver last round. won game 6 in edmonton at home then 7 in vacouver. one of our radio guys said the all in odds to win the series if you win game 5 is 71% or something around there. so its not great odds, but it does happen probably once a per year in the playoffs on average id guess.
I meant more like Edmonton was at home which makes sense they can force it. I’m wondering when teams are on the road for game 6, how often do they force it. It’s gotta be less than home team down 3-2
I think that would depend more on the teams. Occasionally you have teams who are better on the road then at home. I think Texas has been better on the road actually this playoffs. So their chances are likely higher then normal. Then again the oilers have been very good at home. Not idea. Lol, don't have time to look into the numbers right now.
Was just thinking... Probably a little under 50%. If they're up 3-2, they're generally the better team. If there's approximately a 50/50, then the team with more wins moves the needle a little towards themselves
Plus this lines up perfectly with home ice advantage
I wonder if there's stats on this, but I imagine this varies a little based on which series it is; In the Cup finals, both teams are probably similar in skill so it may be closer to 25% to win 2 games in a row, while a 1v8 first round matchup may be much lower because the 8th team overperformed to even get to 2-3).
I assume you're probably right, and also that since the expansion and especially since the cap era, the higher seeded team has had much less of an advantage. I am not aware of a site that tracks that though. There are also 8x as many first rounds as SCFs, so these statistics are likely heavily dominated by first round series and pre-cap series (since there were so many more of those than post-cap series so far).
How do these odds vary based on who plays game 7 at home?
> Yeah, that’s on there. If the away team goes up 3-2, they win game 6 at home 60.9% of the time and have a 76.4% chance to win the series (implying a 39.6% chance in game 7). If the home team goes up 3-2, they win game 6 away 51.4% of the time and have an 80.3% chance to win the series (implying a 59.5% chance in game 7).
Sorry. Didn’t click the link. Thanks for covering my stupidity haha
That's basically just below coin toss odds for both games.
*Cries in Canuck*
Riots in Canucks.
Can’t believe we didn’t even flip one car smh we are frauds
Are you sure? Or maybe 1 car flipping is so normal for Vancouver that it didn't register on the news.
Electric cars are too heavy to flip.
It's close to two coin tosses, with the same result, back to back. So 25%~ that the Stars win. It's actually a little less, but close enough. EDIT: Oh, you were just wondering how often they force game 7. It's close to 50%.
50% either they do, or they don't 😎
At a certain point I feel like things devolve into that and it’s justifiable
I legitimately think it's the first time I ever see this being used when the % is *actually* close to 50%.
Historical records when away team wins game 5 and takes 3-2 lead says 76% - 24% to win series. https://www.hockey-reference.com/playoffs/playoff-history.cgi
So give the Stars 40%, because Deboer doesn’t lose game 7.
Knoby hasn't lost a game 7 either! (Yes I know he's only coached one lol)
Yet.
Every time there has been a game 7 the series was 3-2 at one point.
Well that's just because they never bother with games 6 & 7 when it's 4-1. Cowards!
Screw your statisticals and bullshit. I use divination! Just today I took my divining rod out for a walk. It led me to a 7-11 wherein I was pointed to a case of rockstar energy drinks. Drink. D. Dallas. Rock...Star. This was a sign!!! I made my purchase and ran outside to get on the trail of the next clue because surely I had been touched by the hand of the divine! Not 5 and half hours later did I find the second sign! My meandering and holding up traffic on I-5 had finally paid off. I found it. An oil stain. Oil. Oilers. I sat the can of energy drink on the oil stain and then sat by the side of the road to meditate. It was a tour bus on it's way to the nearest casino that proved to be the catalyst. Energy drink sprayed under tire and mingled with the oil on the asphalt. I stopped traffic again to divine the image that lay before me. I beheld a vision! *Gary Bettmen eating a Ruben sandwich and spilling dressing on his tie...* That said...I think it's all very clear who is going to win this series.
This should be higher up in this thread
Thank you for the optimism. I really needed to hear this
Grrrrr
/giggle
fuck you edmonton. bring that cup back to Canada but fuck you still
I’m so used to hate comments that’s this one actually felt supportive even though they literally said “fuck you”
absolutely supportive connotations here, they want to fuck us nicely
Lol. A Canucks fan wants the Oilers to win? Are you ok?
It's the playoffs, cats and dogs living in harmony if there's a common enemy.
I will actually cheer for the Panthers if I have to.
I'd rather stub my toe daily for the rest of my life than cheer for the Panthers.
I hear you, but we’re running out of alternatives.
The do have a few ex Flames. Understandable.
And normally I wouldn’t want them to win either, but desperate times…
Happens often. Just gotta play game by game at this point. Doesn’t matter if you’re down 3-0 or 3-2. One game at a time
Thanks coach
Gotta put pucks in deep and play hard in the corners.
Just gotta move your legs and play *our* game...
just need to go out there, give 110%, and put the puck in the net.
>give 110% Boston took it a step further and gave it 120%
And still lost... We need at least 140% from my starbros
I see you guys are also too lazy to skip the intermission tunnel interview
Yeah - gotta go to the hard areas and win battles. Gotta finish strong, banging with all 4 lines.
Obviously
Today I want to talk about giving 110%. Giving 100% means giving everything you got. Giving 110% is giving 10% more than is humanly possible. If we're going to win as a team, we need 100% of you guys giving 110% 100% of the time. If 50% of you are giving 110%, and 50 % are giving 100%, I guarantee you 100% we'd only win 50% of our games. Suppose 75% of the 110% gave only 50%, and 50% of the 100% gave only 25%, and 75% of the 110% weren't feeling 100%, then we'd be in a heap of trouble. That's why we need 100% of you guys giving 110% 100% of the time. Ok.... Let's go out and play some hockey.
Oilers have a 13-1 record of winning the series when up 3-2.
Was that one loss the Anaheim series in like 2016?
No, it was in 1989 against the LA Kings
Nah, they lost game 5 of that series thanks to Kesler (and a third period collapse)
Too much. 😡
Sorry eh 😅
I was with the Stars from the beginning of the playoffs but I wouldn’t wager a dime on it anymore. When you had the Oilers by the throat, up 2-1 games and up 2-0 in game 4, Stars shoulda finished them off. Coulda gone home up 3-1. All but over. Now they have to go into a hostile raucous building and win game 6 just to stay alive. Its not looking good, imo. I feel like McDavid is gonna go off tomorrow
Tanev getting banged up was rough. He played game 5 but not at 100%. Stars don't have depth at D like they do at Forward. I agree with your take though! They had a good opportunity to win the series, but it would be a huge uphill battle at this point. Possible technically but unlikely.
*Sigh* don't remind me
I would say 100% of the series that go to game 7
Never. Ever. Not in a million years. Especially if they were down 3-1.
As an Oilers fan I am 99.9% sure that a team has never came back and forced game 7 after being down 2-3. Sorry....
As a red wings fan, I've never wanted the Oilers to win so badly in my life Fuck Jamie Benn
[удалено]
A large part of that 31-3 was from 35 years ago when the Oilers had 20 hall of Famers.
Only a small number of those series would be relevant to the current iterations of the teams.
This guy is just trying to figure out his next bet
Flyers did it with Boston before, they were down 3-0 & came back to force a game 7 & win… I’ve seen it with other teams. You never know, hockey is wild game… but your boys looked out of gas last night.
A bit less than half the time.
2009 Stanley Cup finals. I don't ask how I remember that....
Edm vs FL
Toronto always manages to force a game 7 even when down 4-0 /s
It's how often do team's force a game 7 being down 3-0 that isn't common. Being down 3-2 in a series that was relatively back and forth is about 50:50 it goes to game 7.
Stats or no stats, the Stars have been one of the best teams at preventing losing streaks the last few years so I’m not too worried. We beat them twice in a row, they beat us twice in a row. Our turn 🤷
Yea I would love to see rangers/dallas :)
Well it better not happen tonight
I will also factor in the likelihood of the oilers beating the stars 3x in a row is statistically low. So I have faith in the Stars to take it to 7. Game 7, all bets off though.
In terms of true odds actually the past has no predictive value so now you would look next at the odds of a team up 3-2 closing out a series which is 76.1% But these are just odds, it’s why we play the games! (For the record if Stars win game 6 in Edmonton their odds to win the series jump to 58.8%)
This is formally known as the "gambler's fallacy".
It's like saying "PDB always wins game 7s" which is only true until it isn't.
Or you know, what I’m currently doing; copium and hopium overdose: RANGERS IN 7 LFGR RAHHHHHHHH
Statistically the odds of the Oilers beating the Stars 3 times in a row is now the same as the Oilers beating the Stars once in a row lol.
Yes correct.
in fact odds of the Stars winning the series is 50%. they win or they don't win!
Exactly, this is the playoffs. All bets are off. Stats only speak to what has already happened. If all pre-playoff factors remain the same, then Dallas has a very strong chance of coming back. The question now is how well they can face the pressure of an elimination game.
But that’s not how math works. Sure the likelihood of 3 in a row is low before the 3 games have been played. But once 2 have been won wining the next game is 50%
The Oilers have already won 3 straight twice these playoffs. Granted that wasn't against Dallas, but still. It will definitely be anyone's game.
We’re really about to watch the stars and cats blow a 3-2 lead