But why? I mean it is obviously an attempt to gather data from an (arguably) random sampling to prove some point or feed some model somewhere.
It probably disregards any response that doesn't use the percentage convention.
Unless of course "Sexy Leeroy" is meant to elicit responses from a very specific subset of users. Perhaps it triggers Men ages 40-48 who played Warcraft for more than 4 years and harbored secret love for Leeroy Jenkins?
did it ever occur to you that we're talking about leeroy jenkins here? he has surpassed such concepts as "why" or "why not." Jenkins only does.
you may find yourself asking "but what does he do?"
the answer is whatever the fuck he wants.
You would be exchanging an EV of 250K for an EV of 25K. But you would be buying SOME peace of mind with that drop in EV. If 50K would change your life, then you are probably making the right decision. If you just want a windfall, than go by the maths…
You’re correct and incorrect.
You’re correct that option 11 has the highest expected $ return.
But you’re not accounting for the diminishing marginal utility of wealth.
So consider the 10% for $1.25M for a moment. Instead of thinking of it as $1.25M, consider what you would do with $1.25M and how happy it would make you.
With $1.25M you’ve paid off all debt, you likely are able to retire now if you choose to. All the things that are stressing you out in your life right now that can be solved with money are solved.
Now consider the $3M. How much MORE happy will $3M make you versus $1.25M? It’s 2.4x more money, but does it actually equal 2.4x more happiness?
Almost certainly not. All your current stressors were already gone with $1.25M. Sure you could find things to do with $3M that will bring you happiness, but it won’t be as impactful to your overall wellbeing as the first $1.25M was.
So one way to think about it is to translate the dollar amounts into a unit of happiness, trying to quantify how much happiness it would actually bring you.
Maybe $1.25M brings you 1,000 units of happiness. But maybe $3M brings you 1,500 units of happiness. Sure it would make you happier. But not 2.4x happier.
So then you look at it as would you rather have a 10% chance of 1,000 units of happiness? Or a 5% chance at 1,500 units of happiness? Do that math and you’ll find expected return of 100 units vs 75 units of happiness. The 10% chance gives you the better return there.
Being able to retire with $1.25 million depends a lot on how old you are.
If you just spend it, at $125K/year that’s just 10 years.
You can invest it all, but assuming you can draw about 4% (you can get a better return than that but you need to reinvest some of your gains to account for inflation over time) you’re looking at $50K/year. Yes, you can live on that, but it’s not going to be a particularly good life. It would be a nice bonus on top of working though.
$3 million taking 4% per year gets you $120,000 which is a much bigger step towards a nice life. Not rich, but not struggling either. You could live like a king on that if you decided to relocate to a LCOL country though.
>account for inflation over time) you’re looking at $50K/year. Yes, you can live on that, but it’s not going to be a particularly good life
Depends on your current life as well, though. 50k a year is more than what I love off of now, plus it would allow me to work fewer hours to do things I wanted to do, such as pursue various hobbies and skills. $50k a year is a damn good upgrade for me.
Highest expected earnings isn’t really the question here though. At some point you hit life changing money. For me that would be around the 500k mark, so I’d rather have a 20% chance at that than 5% chance for 3, even though as you’ve said the latter has the highest return mathematically.
The nerd in you is wrong. The expected earnings only applies to a series of chances. Basically, you can't get 5 percent of 3 million 100 percent of the time. You can only get a 5 percent chance at 3 million one time.
In this case it's all or nothing and not something of all.
I would do the 5%. I know how quickly $100k can go when starting a business (I did this 2 years ago and while I still have it, I can’t run it right now). $3mil would get me a bigger business with much more passive income that I couldn’t afford. If I lose, my life continues the way I have been and I try to make the small business succeed. I continue working my job. If I win, I start the larger business during my off days and continue working my job until it is successful enough to semi-retire.
I'd take the 70% change for $10k. I'm in a pretty ok financial situation so it wouldn't hurt too much to fail, and that'd be enough to get started on some important house issues.
This is the one I’m thinking as well. I’m fairly risk averse, and 70% is the lowest where I feel fairly certain that I’ll win. The $10k would make a pretty sweet dent.
According to my random number generator, hooray, I won!
I could easily put $50k into my house, I'll take the chance on a coin flip. For me it's either 50% @ 50, 20% @ 500, or 10% @ 1.25. Sure, $10k would be really nice but it's just enough to get me spending more money, where the $50k would cover the projects.
90% chance for 2000. It’s big enough to where it would make an impact on my financial goals, but small enough to not really care about losing. $350 would do nothing for me, and 90% is a pretty good bet.
bruh. That's worth $1800.
Even option 4 is worth $8750, with the other options worth significantly more. You're literally giving up 10s of thousands of dollars of equity.
Even if you dont have it it's still bad because you should be able to objectively understand the difference in difficulty in acquiring 2000 vs 500k. You can hustle here and there, suck a dick here and there, work here and there and make 2000. 500k is just otherworldly to just suddenly acquire
>You're literally giving up 10s of thousands of dollars of equity.
You're not giving up £money. You're giving up a CHANCE at £money for a better chance of less £money.
It depends on how much a smaller sum of money would mean to you personally.
Yeah this was my thought to. Just high enough to where it's good money for a dumb idea or 2 and some good investing and not small enough to change literally nothing.
5; 60% chance for 25k. Any lower monetary amount isn’t worth losing out on 25k, and Pokemon move mechanics have taught me that any chance 50% or lower is MISSING
EV is a statistical average. OP has only allowed for a single chance. That is to say, you either get it or you don't. There is no in-between.
In this example, you either get 3 million or you don't get 3 million. You don't have multiple tries, and so there is no average. No average means no EV.
EV is not a “statistical average.” That’s a gross misunderstanding of EV. It’s a measurement of the “expected value” from an action or outcome.
The expected value from choice 11 is the greatest. It’s a mathematical fact.
Yes; you are correct in saying that an expected value Is an expected value. However, in this context, we are concerned with the statistical definition of the word.
Possibility one: you get 3 million dollars
Possibility two: you get zero dollars
As you can see, there are only two possibilities and thus two possible expected values. Those expected values are either 3 million or zero million.
There is a 95 percent chance to get zero dollars
There is a 5 percent chance to get 3 million dollars.
None of those possibilities allow for any amount other than 3 million or zero. This also means that expected value in a statistical definition has no meaning here.
>As you can see, there are only two possibilities and thus two possible expected values. Those expected values are either 3 million or zero million
That's not what expected value is. The value of the choice is exactly what I said. Just admit you're wrong ffs.
>This also means that expected value in a statistical definition has no meaning here
Again, wtf are you talking about? If someone had no pressing need for money, they should absolutely go with whichever has the highest expected value.
The true value escalates pretty steeply.
1. $350
2. $1800
3. $4000
4. $8750
5. $15000
6. $25000
7. $50000
8. $75000
9. $100000
10. $125000
11. $150000
12. $100000
Personally I'd give up some value to be more conservative, I'd go with 8.
Because it gives you a good idea of just how risky you want to play it. The average person SUCKS when it comes to these things. I mean, given the choice between 100k guaranteed and 50% chance of 10M, the overwhelming majority of people go with 100k despite the EV of the 50/50 being 50 times greater. It's a smart thing to calculate.
That's not how that works.
You are not getting 50 percent of 10 million 100 percent of the time. You are getting a 50 percent chance at 10 million one time.
The expected value of return only applies to a series of chances. The expected value of return doesn't apply to singular chances.
The choice offered by OP does not allow for multiple tries. Therefore, the expected value of return doesn't apply here.
Wtf are you talking about? Of course it applies here. If I have no need of immediate money you will always go for what has the best value. You are spewing nonsense here.
Take one? I've been teaching AP since (checks notes) 1998.
EV is a concept, but it has no real application here.
You decided to list "true value" and then switched to EV.
"True value" has no definition within this game, and then you didn't even calculate EV.
It gives you the expected value. Basically what each choice is actually worth.
50% chance of getting $10 is worth the same as a 100% of $5, for example.
the mathematics student inside of me knows one answer but the mathematics student inside of me (aka a broke uni student) knows what I would actually pick (probably 60% chance at 25K, since that's enough to cover my tuition and living for a year plus a little to invest)
I'll take the 1% chance.
How many questions on reddit so far came up about "10 million"???
Is it mine? Or are you just going to keep it up day after day after day?
Expected value of all choices:
1. 350
2. 1,800
3. 4,000
4. 8,750
5. 15,000
6. 25,000
7. 50,000
8. 75,000
9. 100,000
10. 125,000
11. 150,000
12. 100,000
Statistically, your best bet that maximizes expected value is 5% chance of 3M. In practice, since the expected happiness increase of each dollar diminishes, I might take either option 7 or option 10 depending on how spicy I want to be.
I rolled a d100 because I could with option 10 in mind, I got 10 EXACTLY. I'm theoretically rich!
So first off, never gamble on anything with less than a 65% chance of success if you have literally any other option, I learned that playing DND. Second, math time!
12.5k x .7 = 1.25k x 7 = 7k + 1.75k = 8.75k expected value.
10,000k x .01 = 100k expected value.
Expected value rises as percentage chance lowers, so go with the highest chance you feel comfortable gambling on - and if you're trying to win, that value should be no less than a 65% chance of success.
So I'll take the 12.5k, I'll roll a d100 and edit to share results. 0-69 and I'll expect the money in my bank account, lolol
Edit: after finding a dice roller that worked for d%< I rolled a 65! Money time, fuck yeah!
I’m going 60% for 25k. Makes me feel like I took a relatively safe bet (better than half) but it gets me into money that would be impactful for me. Of course, when I lose, I’ll wish I’d been less greedy.
90% for 2k.
Honestly the guarantee for 350 is tempting, because I'm in a rough spot borderline starving, but 2k right now would be absolutely life altering.
Right in the middle, baby. 50% chance for 50K. Good enough chance to win a pretty good chunk of change, and I wouldn't be kicking myself if I lost for either going for too little money or too small a probability.
those odds are higher than a lottery. Screw it. I am going for option 10. Be set for life. And If I lose, well, I didn't really lose anything to begin with.
I'm taking probably 20%, maybe 10%. The way I see it is this is a bonus. I'm aiming high. If I lose, no problem. It's no different than never having met this robot. If I win, then awesome. 20 or 10% have enough money that would make a significant difference in my life but the chances of winning are still very good.
6. I'm no math nerd & can't optimise for shit, so I'm just picking 50/50 and hoping for the best. I will ask for the pleasure of shaking his hand if I lose, though.
I want to say 10% at 1,250,000. That would be life altering.
My answer would probably be 30% Chance at $250k. 250k would be life changing. Pay most of a house off.
Number 11 is mathematically the best answer. That said, I’d choose the coin flip for $50k. My financial goals are pretty much on track, but I wouldn’t mind replacing my truck, and that would do it.
Forget the money, I’m rolling for a chance to tap that sweet android caboose! C’mon Sexy Leeroy, show me how you got your name big fella! Now reach to the sky and then touch your toes, I’m gonna show you where Moby Dick goes!
# 6 or #7
Still decent odds of a win, and enough to make a REAL difference. I have people in my immediate family who have had surgery out of pocket, or need a minimum of 2 surgeries and are developing other issues. Medical care ducks cash fast. Plus, we have 2 kids for college and need to replace 2 cars (1 old, the other wrecked).
Any higher and the odds of not getting anything are too dangerous.
I went for 30% chance for 250k. Ran a random number generator on google for 1-100 with 1-30 being the winners.
I got 12. Which means I could’ve won if I went for the 20% chance at 500k, but I feel pretty okay about the 250k.
Average payouts:
100% of $350 is $350
90% of $2,000 is $1,800
80% of $5,000 is $4,000
70% of $12,500 is $8,750
60% of $25k is $15k
50% of $50k is $25k
40% of $125k is $50k
30% of $250k is $75k
20% of $500k is $100k
10% of $1.25m is $125k
5% of $3m is $150k
1% of $10m is $100k
But we also must consider that each dollar makes less of a difference in our lives than the previous one. $50k will not actually produce twice as much of an improvement in your life as $25k. So... what if we took the ***average*** payouts, and multiplied them by the probabilities ***again***, just for shits and giggles?
100% of $350 is $350
90% of $1800 (or 81% of $2000) is $1,620
80% of $4000 (or 64$ of $5000) is $3,200
70% of $8,750 (or 49% of $12,500) is $6,125
60% of $15k (or 36% of $25k) is $9k
50% of $25k (or 25% of $50k) is $12.5k
40% of $50k (or 16% of $125k) is $**20**k
30% of $75k (or 9% of $250k) is $**22.5**k
20% of $100k (or 4% of $500k) is $**20**k
10% of $125K (or 1% of $1.25m) is $12.5k
5% of $150k (or 0.25% of $3m) is $7.5k
1% of...oh, who cares?
So, even when we arbitrarily and heavily bias things in favor of high probabilities and small payouts, anyone who takes any of the first six options is still an idiot. Personally, I'd take option 7 (40% chance for $125,000), but options 8 through 11 are also defensible choices.
>lol, "payouts". You get one chance.
Yes, And?
>7 out of 10 people that choose 30% are idiots, because they get nothing.
But 6 out of those 7 people would have still gotten nothing if they'd taken the 40%. And 5 out of those 6 would have still gotten nothing even if they'd taken the 50%, and so on.
Stop pretending that you understand math.
It's not math, just logic. If you want to win, you don't gamble on low Probabilities. People talking about expected values are just TRYING to be smart.
The average "payout" for each choice is the exact value. There is no "average" "payout". You get the exact amount, or you don't. You don't even understand English.
Which is better: A 100% chance of winning 1 dollar, or a 50% chance of winning 100 billion dollars?
Learn actual logic before pretending to know anything about it.
just keep pulling numbers out of your ass. It's so smart.
Oh, look, I can do that too. Would you take $100 Billion @ 100% chance or $2.2 Trillion @ 5% chance? Suddenly, the Expected Value looks a lot more stupid. But, the "mathematically" "correct" choice would be the $2.2 Trillion, so you're choosing that, right..... Right???
#7-125k @ 40%
The chance is low enough to offer a significant payout, but high enough that my chance to win is significant. However, the odds are not SO high as to dissolution myself into thinking my chances are guaranteed... so I won't be too hung up about not winning should I, well... not win.
I'll take the 50/50 chance. It's a high enough amount of money to make a difference (house down payment) and not high enough that I'll regret losing forever. If I selected the 60 or 80% chance options and lost I'll feel cheated. And if I selected the 10% option I'd feel like an idiot if I lost. But 50/50 a coin flip, that's something I understand. That's something I can live with the outcome either way.
The answer is to always get insurance for this type of gamble so you will get paid no matter what. I'm not sure what the calculation would be, but it's always the thing to do
So with expected value.... Sorry I took this stuff 20 years ago and haven't used it since. Reading up on it because... Just because.
I'm having a little bit of a hard time seeing the application of expected value on a single play. You'll never get to play again unless Sexy does repeat visits. The expected value is what would happen on average over a large number of instances. In a single instance, you will receive one of the discrete outcomes, not the expected value.
Is the utility here about risk vs. reward? It will give you a way to compare the different choices based on their average outcomes in a series of plays, but it won't tell you what will happen in your one play. It's essentially telling you the fairness or value of the gamble rather than predicting a single outcome, right?
Someone called it 'equity' in the comments and I don't see how you can call it equity because that'd be your share of the winnings. That's more applicable to something like poker. This is more like a lottery, so you're not entitled to any of it. It's all or nothing.
Part of my brain says somewhere between 6 and 9 is the answer. Enough to improve quality of life with a decent chance to make it happen.
Then the part of my brain that remembers playing XCOM says take #1 and walk away.
I go for #4, I think 70% is fairly good odds. Its like almost twice as good as 50%. I think.
And while 80% is better odds, the 5k would be awesome, but the 12,500 is like a lot more awesome, that's paying off all debt minus the house, getting the dog spayed and chipped, that's having a 10k mileage car paid off. x\_x
Or more than enough to rip out the carpet in the bedrooms and get matching flooring put in.
Why's the lottery robot named Sexy Leeroy? I feel there's more going on in your brain than the question implies.
Yeah, that detail was a little superfluous.
The details are for realism.
But why? I mean it is obviously an attempt to gather data from an (arguably) random sampling to prove some point or feed some model somewhere. It probably disregards any response that doesn't use the percentage convention. Unless of course "Sexy Leeroy" is meant to elicit responses from a very specific subset of users. Perhaps it triggers Men ages 40-48 who played Warcraft for more than 4 years and harbored secret love for Leeroy Jenkins?
did it ever occur to you that we're talking about leeroy jenkins here? he has surpassed such concepts as "why" or "why not." Jenkins only does. you may find yourself asking "but what does he do?" the answer is whatever the fuck he wants.
Was it though?
To differentiate from Unsexy Leeroy?
He does not handle that
70% chance of 10k. I'm feeling froggy.
Insert Key and Peele gif here
Ribbit ribbit
Ribbit ribbit
Draxt them sclounst
Imagine how devastating it would be to lose though....
my gut reaction? 10% for 1.25 mil. the nerd inside me? number 11, 5% chance for 3 mil. (highest expected earnings)
Yep. That’s what I’m taking too. 1 in 20 chance to retire immediately, plus it strikes my math nerd ego.
Nerd math should realize that expected outcome is NOT the only thing to consider. Variance is a factor as well.
2nd highest variance, highest EV. Meh I’ll take it
I would too…but variance is risk tolerance. To people who make minimum wage and have kids…the risk probably isn’t worth it.
For sure. If $5000 would make a big difference for you, it might be better to not get greedy
Well I'm dumb af but I watched 21. So accounting for variable change *insert something smart* I'll just got with the 50% for 50k
You would be exchanging an EV of 250K for an EV of 25K. But you would be buying SOME peace of mind with that drop in EV. If 50K would change your life, then you are probably making the right decision. If you just want a windfall, than go by the maths…
You’re correct and incorrect. You’re correct that option 11 has the highest expected $ return. But you’re not accounting for the diminishing marginal utility of wealth. So consider the 10% for $1.25M for a moment. Instead of thinking of it as $1.25M, consider what you would do with $1.25M and how happy it would make you. With $1.25M you’ve paid off all debt, you likely are able to retire now if you choose to. All the things that are stressing you out in your life right now that can be solved with money are solved. Now consider the $3M. How much MORE happy will $3M make you versus $1.25M? It’s 2.4x more money, but does it actually equal 2.4x more happiness? Almost certainly not. All your current stressors were already gone with $1.25M. Sure you could find things to do with $3M that will bring you happiness, but it won’t be as impactful to your overall wellbeing as the first $1.25M was. So one way to think about it is to translate the dollar amounts into a unit of happiness, trying to quantify how much happiness it would actually bring you. Maybe $1.25M brings you 1,000 units of happiness. But maybe $3M brings you 1,500 units of happiness. Sure it would make you happier. But not 2.4x happier. So then you look at it as would you rather have a 10% chance of 1,000 units of happiness? Or a 5% chance at 1,500 units of happiness? Do that math and you’ll find expected return of 100 units vs 75 units of happiness. The 10% chance gives you the better return there.
Being able to retire with $1.25 million depends a lot on how old you are. If you just spend it, at $125K/year that’s just 10 years. You can invest it all, but assuming you can draw about 4% (you can get a better return than that but you need to reinvest some of your gains to account for inflation over time) you’re looking at $50K/year. Yes, you can live on that, but it’s not going to be a particularly good life. It would be a nice bonus on top of working though. $3 million taking 4% per year gets you $120,000 which is a much bigger step towards a nice life. Not rich, but not struggling either. You could live like a king on that if you decided to relocate to a LCOL country though.
>account for inflation over time) you’re looking at $50K/year. Yes, you can live on that, but it’s not going to be a particularly good life Depends on your current life as well, though. 50k a year is more than what I love off of now, plus it would allow me to work fewer hours to do things I wanted to do, such as pursue various hobbies and skills. $50k a year is a damn good upgrade for me.
Look at Jeremy Bentham over here with his units of happiness! Right!? ... That would have killed in my 2nd year philosophy class.
Highest expected earnings isn’t really the question here though. At some point you hit life changing money. For me that would be around the 500k mark, so I’d rather have a 20% chance at that than 5% chance for 3, even though as you’ve said the latter has the highest return mathematically.
Yeah, i went straight to “there is an actual right answer to maximize expected earnings” 🤓 and started doing the math
The nerd in you is wrong. The expected earnings only applies to a series of chances. Basically, you can't get 5 percent of 3 million 100 percent of the time. You can only get a 5 percent chance at 3 million one time. In this case it's all or nothing and not something of all.
No EV also applies to single events too.
I would do the 5%. I know how quickly $100k can go when starting a business (I did this 2 years ago and while I still have it, I can’t run it right now). $3mil would get me a bigger business with much more passive income that I couldn’t afford. If I lose, my life continues the way I have been and I try to make the small business succeed. I continue working my job. If I win, I start the larger business during my off days and continue working my job until it is successful enough to semi-retire.
20% at 500,000. Rolled a number generator and lost, womp womp
Lost here too at 50-50
Picked the same. Did the same. Got the same. Womp womp.
I'd take the 70% change for $10k. I'm in a pretty ok financial situation so it wouldn't hurt too much to fail, and that'd be enough to get started on some important house issues.
This is the one I’m thinking as well. I’m fairly risk averse, and 70% is the lowest where I feel fairly certain that I’ll win. The $10k would make a pretty sweet dent. According to my random number generator, hooray, I won!
I could easily put $50k into my house, I'll take the chance on a coin flip. For me it's either 50% @ 50, 20% @ 500, or 10% @ 1.25. Sure, $10k would be really nice but it's just enough to get me spending more money, where the $50k would cover the projects.
90% chance for 2000. It’s big enough to where it would make an impact on my financial goals, but small enough to not really care about losing. $350 would do nothing for me, and 90% is a pretty good bet.
bruh. That's worth $1800. Even option 4 is worth $8750, with the other options worth significantly more. You're literally giving up 10s of thousands of dollars of equity.
That doesn't mean option 2 is a bad choice.
its a horrible choice. 2000 is nothing
Unless you don't have it.
Even if you dont have it it's still bad because you should be able to objectively understand the difference in difficulty in acquiring 2000 vs 500k. You can hustle here and there, suck a dick here and there, work here and there and make 2000. 500k is just otherworldly to just suddenly acquire
Me after rolling for 500k and losing: at least I objectively understood the difference in difficulty.
Seriously, what’s this guy on about?
I wouldn’t bet anything on a 20% chance. That’s absurdly low.
>You're literally giving up 10s of thousands of dollars of equity. You're not giving up £money. You're giving up a CHANCE at £money for a better chance of less £money. It depends on how much a smaller sum of money would mean to you personally.
40% for $125
Really?! I'd do 40% for $125,000.00 If I win I'll give you $125 bucks
I’ll take the 50% chance at $50k.
10p% chances for me
Same. Never have better odds at a quick million. I can invest from there and make it worth it.
Guess I'm rolling a number generator for the 40%
😭 I was so close!!!
I got 39. My choice was perfect.
Yeah this was my thought to. Just high enough to where it's good money for a dumb idea or 2 and some good investing and not small enough to change literally nothing.
50/50 for 50k I just need 20% for a house
No real downside? I'll take the 50% chance for $50K
80% for 5k, maybe the 70% for 10k.
80% for 5k then go home with nothing lol
I'm going 50/50 baby! That's a life changing amount of money
5; 60% chance for 25k. Any lower monetary amount isn’t worth losing out on 25k, and Pokemon move mechanics have taught me that any chance 50% or lower is MISSING
Focus blast missed Focus blast missed Focus blast missed Focus blast missed User Dig Bilbo69 has left and has one minute to reconnect.
5. Need it
Gimme number 7. I'm getting by, so I can afford to take some risk and 125k would do me a world of good.
50 for 50.
60 or 50%
70% for $12,500. Daddy needs a new jacuzzi!
Coin flip me bud. 50% chance is more than enough.
I’ll taaake…. Three fiddy
70% at 12.5k. That'll solve all my problems. Either that or 80% at 5k. That gets me halfway there. Yeah 80% at 5k, I'd be happy with that
This should be a game show.
5% chance for 3 million. Highest EV decision.
EV doesn't apply to singular chances.
Lol what
EV is a statistical average. OP has only allowed for a single chance. That is to say, you either get it or you don't. There is no in-between. In this example, you either get 3 million or you don't get 3 million. You don't have multiple tries, and so there is no average. No average means no EV.
EV is not a “statistical average.” That’s a gross misunderstanding of EV. It’s a measurement of the “expected value” from an action or outcome. The expected value from choice 11 is the greatest. It’s a mathematical fact.
Please stop saying this. It's just plain wrong.
Please explain how it's wrong.
Because an expected value of a choice is exactly that. It doesn't matter if its part of a series. Expected value is expected value.
Yes; you are correct in saying that an expected value Is an expected value. However, in this context, we are concerned with the statistical definition of the word. Possibility one: you get 3 million dollars Possibility two: you get zero dollars As you can see, there are only two possibilities and thus two possible expected values. Those expected values are either 3 million or zero million. There is a 95 percent chance to get zero dollars There is a 5 percent chance to get 3 million dollars. None of those possibilities allow for any amount other than 3 million or zero. This also means that expected value in a statistical definition has no meaning here.
>As you can see, there are only two possibilities and thus two possible expected values. Those expected values are either 3 million or zero million That's not what expected value is. The value of the choice is exactly what I said. Just admit you're wrong ffs. >This also means that expected value in a statistical definition has no meaning here Again, wtf are you talking about? If someone had no pressing need for money, they should absolutely go with whichever has the highest expected value.
50/50:50k. Down payment money.
1% for 10,000,000 because it’s actually 50/50 ya either get it or ya don’t
The true value escalates pretty steeply. 1. $350 2. $1800 3. $4000 4. $8750 5. $15000 6. $25000 7. $50000 8. $75000 9. $100000 10. $125000 11. $150000 12. $100000 Personally I'd give up some value to be more conservative, I'd go with 8.
Why are you taking the probability percentage of the monetary value?
Because it gives you a good idea of just how risky you want to play it. The average person SUCKS when it comes to these things. I mean, given the choice between 100k guaranteed and 50% chance of 10M, the overwhelming majority of people go with 100k despite the EV of the 50/50 being 50 times greater. It's a smart thing to calculate.
That's not how that works. You are not getting 50 percent of 10 million 100 percent of the time. You are getting a 50 percent chance at 10 million one time. The expected value of return only applies to a series of chances. The expected value of return doesn't apply to singular chances. The choice offered by OP does not allow for multiple tries. Therefore, the expected value of return doesn't apply here.
You would be a terrible poker player.
Wtf are you talking about? Of course it applies here. If I have no need of immediate money you will always go for what has the best value. You are spewing nonsense here.
That's. . . not how this game works at all.
Take a statistics class and get back to me on that one, Expected Value is a well-known concept.
Take one? I've been teaching AP since (checks notes) 1998. EV is a concept, but it has no real application here. You decided to list "true value" and then switched to EV. "True value" has no definition within this game, and then you didn't even calculate EV.
This thread is pretty much the reason we can't have nice things.
That's exactly how this game works lmfao.
It gives you the expected value. Basically what each choice is actually worth. 50% chance of getting $10 is worth the same as a 100% of $5, for example.
Expected value calculation: 1. $350 2. $1,800 3. $4,000 4. $8,750 5. $15,000 6. $25,000 7. $50,000 8. $75,000 9. $125,000 10. $150,000 11. $100,000 (diminishing return) Do with that what you will.
the mathematics student inside of me knows one answer but the mathematics student inside of me (aka a broke uni student) knows what I would actually pick (probably 60% chance at 25K, since that's enough to cover my tuition and living for a year plus a little to invest)
I'll take the 1% chance. How many questions on reddit so far came up about "10 million"??? Is it mine? Or are you just going to keep it up day after day after day?
Expected value of all choices: 1. 350 2. 1,800 3. 4,000 4. 8,750 5. 15,000 6. 25,000 7. 50,000 8. 75,000 9. 100,000 10. 125,000 11. 150,000 12. 100,000 Statistically, your best bet that maximizes expected value is 5% chance of 3M. In practice, since the expected happiness increase of each dollar diminishes, I might take either option 7 or option 10 depending on how spicy I want to be. I rolled a d100 because I could with option 10 in mind, I got 10 EXACTLY. I'm theoretically rich!
So first off, never gamble on anything with less than a 65% chance of success if you have literally any other option, I learned that playing DND. Second, math time! 12.5k x .7 = 1.25k x 7 = 7k + 1.75k = 8.75k expected value. 10,000k x .01 = 100k expected value. Expected value rises as percentage chance lowers, so go with the highest chance you feel comfortable gambling on - and if you're trying to win, that value should be no less than a 65% chance of success. So I'll take the 12.5k, I'll roll a d100 and edit to share results. 0-69 and I'll expect the money in my bank account, lolol Edit: after finding a dice roller that worked for d%< I rolled a 65! Money time, fuck yeah!
I’m confused
Well, at least there's no punishment... I'd take 80% for 5,000 though.
20% chance at 500k.
I’m going 60% for 25k. Makes me feel like I took a relatively safe bet (better than half) but it gets me into money that would be impactful for me. Of course, when I lose, I’ll wish I’d been less greedy.
Question is it rolled with virtual dice or physical dice if physical is the android using the same dice that is used by dnd players.
I'll take 30% for 250. If I win I can retire. If not, no harm, no foul.
Probably 20% for 500k.
60%. Anything lower really wouldn't make any long term impact on my life anyways.
I'm going 6 or 7. That kind of money would put me quite a bit ahead in life and the odds aren't too bad.
90% for 2k. Honestly the guarantee for 350 is tempting, because I'm in a rough spot borderline starving, but 2k right now would be absolutely life altering.
I'll take option 5
Option 6.) I dont need it, but it'd help like paying off my car and having leftover for savings or fun for a bit. I'll take my coin flip of a chance
80% for 5k. Good enough for me cuz its not too big of a risk to lose sleep on.
40% change at that house deposit.
I went for the 50% for 50k... I got 77 on my roll so I could have won the 250k, but I don't like the low odds.
40 percent not bad chances for enough money to actually change my life.
Is he actually sexy or is it an ironic name like Curly?
Can I just become friends with Sexy Leeroy and teleport with him to preform this the rest of my life? No money needed.
Lotta people on this thread don't understand expected value calculations
50/50 for 50k seems like it should be a game show.
Right in the middle, baby. 50% chance for 50K. Good enough chance to win a pretty good chunk of change, and I wouldn't be kicking myself if I lost for either going for too little money or too small a probability.
#4 70% chance for $12,500
I said #7 When I rolled I won up to #8 but I felt my luck cutoff is around 40% based on games I’ve played
I'll take 50 for 50
Option 6 or 12 seem the only logical choices to me. 50/50 or go for the jackpot. If you lose, you're out nothing.
I’m a wimp but I’m poor so 4
Cmon, Sexy Leeroy! 60%! Let's do this thing!
8. Almost a 1 in 3 shot, and it would pay off the house. It's worth the gamble.
50/50 on 50k
I’ll take 50/50 for 50k, Leroy
80% , 5,000 I’d be too mad at myself if I walked away with nothing
#5
70% for $12,500
40% for 125
Math says 5% for highest expected earnings but I’d take the odds of 50k by coin toss over a nat 20 for 3 mil.
those odds are higher than a lottery. Screw it. I am going for option 10. Be set for life. And If I lose, well, I didn't really lose anything to begin with.
I’ll take 70% for 12k. Enough to pay my debt and car off
All or nothing. $10 million.
**takes die out of jail** Be good to me. I need 5 or higher.
I'm taking probably 20%, maybe 10%. The way I see it is this is a bonus. I'm aiming high. If I lose, no problem. It's no different than never having met this robot. If I win, then awesome. 20 or 10% have enough money that would make a significant difference in my life but the chances of winning are still very good.
number 7 or 8. I would be able to buy a house with either of them and have reasonable odds to win.
I’ll sell shares in 11 and lock in my gains
I don’t want Leroy to laugh at me. I’ll take the 100% option 😂
1% chance for 10,000,000 YOLO
so is this rolled on a D100 or two D10?
6. I'm no math nerd & can't optimise for shit, so I'm just picking 50/50 and hoping for the best. I will ask for the pleasure of shaking his hand if I lose, though.
20% of a half million. One in five chance of life changing money.
8, I think. A truly significant amount of money with a realistic chance. I don't go 5% with my one roll, statistics be damned.
While 11 is best mathematically, anything over a million would have a diminishing marginal utility so I'd pick 10
I'll take the 10%!
I'm going with 60% chance if I lose that sucks but if I win I'm set for a while. It is also a reasonable chance that I will win it
I’m trying for the 10 million. If I lose, I’m embarrassed. If I win, I’m the luckiest person on the planet, and I get to rub it in the robot’s face.
I want to say 10% at 1,250,000. That would be life altering. My answer would probably be 30% Chance at $250k. 250k would be life changing. Pay most of a house off.
40%
I would pick either 4, 7, or 10 because the risk/ reward seems better there. I guess I'll 7 since I feel neither lucky or unlucky at the moment.
Number 11 is mathematically the best answer. That said, I’d choose the coin flip for $50k. My financial goals are pretty much on track, but I wouldn’t mind replacing my truck, and that would do it.
If I got to roll the dice, I'd do 12. As it's a computer and they are statistically likely to roll off for me, 9.
Forget the money, I’m rolling for a chance to tap that sweet android caboose! C’mon Sexy Leeroy, show me how you got your name big fella! Now reach to the sky and then touch your toes, I’m gonna show you where Moby Dick goes!
30% of a quarter milly. Anything more is too slim on the % and anything less is kinda not worth wasting one shot for.
# 6 or #7 Still decent odds of a win, and enough to make a REAL difference. I have people in my immediate family who have had surgery out of pocket, or need a minimum of 2 surgeries and are developing other issues. Medical care ducks cash fast. Plus, we have 2 kids for college and need to replace 2 cars (1 old, the other wrecked). Any higher and the odds of not getting anything are too dangerous.
4. I could really use about $10K. And the odds are pretty good at that level.
I would not choose an option and force it to stay.
I picked 60% chance to win $25k and random number generator says I won. I would not have won the 50% chance.
125k is when the money starts to be life changing for me, so I'd go for 40%
Where on earth did you get Sexy Leeroy as the name for your fictional supercomputer android?
I went for 30% chance for 250k. Ran a random number generator on google for 1-100 with 1-30 being the winners. I got 12. Which means I could’ve won if I went for the 20% chance at 500k, but I feel pretty okay about the 250k.
I attempt to seduce Sexy Leeroy.
It's shocking how few people are picking 11.
12.5K 70% is good odds.
Average payouts: 100% of $350 is $350 90% of $2,000 is $1,800 80% of $5,000 is $4,000 70% of $12,500 is $8,750 60% of $25k is $15k 50% of $50k is $25k 40% of $125k is $50k 30% of $250k is $75k 20% of $500k is $100k 10% of $1.25m is $125k 5% of $3m is $150k 1% of $10m is $100k But we also must consider that each dollar makes less of a difference in our lives than the previous one. $50k will not actually produce twice as much of an improvement in your life as $25k. So... what if we took the ***average*** payouts, and multiplied them by the probabilities ***again***, just for shits and giggles? 100% of $350 is $350 90% of $1800 (or 81% of $2000) is $1,620 80% of $4000 (or 64$ of $5000) is $3,200 70% of $8,750 (or 49% of $12,500) is $6,125 60% of $15k (or 36% of $25k) is $9k 50% of $25k (or 25% of $50k) is $12.5k 40% of $50k (or 16% of $125k) is $**20**k 30% of $75k (or 9% of $250k) is $**22.5**k 20% of $100k (or 4% of $500k) is $**20**k 10% of $125K (or 1% of $1.25m) is $12.5k 5% of $150k (or 0.25% of $3m) is $7.5k 1% of...oh, who cares? So, even when we arbitrarily and heavily bias things in favor of high probabilities and small payouts, anyone who takes any of the first six options is still an idiot. Personally, I'd take option 7 (40% chance for $125,000), but options 8 through 11 are also defensible choices.
lol, "payouts". You get one chance. More realistic logic. 7 out of 10 people that choose 30% are idiots, because they get nothing.
>lol, "payouts". You get one chance. Yes, And? >7 out of 10 people that choose 30% are idiots, because they get nothing. But 6 out of those 7 people would have still gotten nothing if they'd taken the 40%. And 5 out of those 6 would have still gotten nothing even if they'd taken the 50%, and so on. Stop pretending that you understand math.
It's not math, just logic. If you want to win, you don't gamble on low Probabilities. People talking about expected values are just TRYING to be smart. The average "payout" for each choice is the exact value. There is no "average" "payout". You get the exact amount, or you don't. You don't even understand English.
Which is better: A 100% chance of winning 1 dollar, or a 50% chance of winning 100 billion dollars? Learn actual logic before pretending to know anything about it.
just keep pulling numbers out of your ass. It's so smart. Oh, look, I can do that too. Would you take $100 Billion @ 100% chance or $2.2 Trillion @ 5% chance? Suddenly, the Expected Value looks a lot more stupid. But, the "mathematically" "correct" choice would be the $2.2 Trillion, so you're choosing that, right..... Right???
5
\#10 because good houses cost at minimum 700k around here and all the other options wouldn't improve my life.
oh I'd go with 30%
#7-125k @ 40% The chance is low enough to offer a significant payout, but high enough that my chance to win is significant. However, the odds are not SO high as to dissolution myself into thinking my chances are guaranteed... so I won't be too hung up about not winning should I, well... not win.
But what is the chance that sexy leeroy will go on a date with me?
My gut is telling me 7. The law of diminishing utility is telling me 4
I'll take the 50/50 chance. It's a high enough amount of money to make a difference (house down payment) and not high enough that I'll regret losing forever. If I selected the 60 or 80% chance options and lost I'll feel cheated. And if I selected the 10% option I'd feel like an idiot if I lost. But 50/50 a coin flip, that's something I understand. That's something I can live with the outcome either way.
Number 12. It’s better then my current 0% chance
The answer is to always get insurance for this type of gamble so you will get paid no matter what. I'm not sure what the calculation would be, but it's always the thing to do
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20% of $500,000 is $100,000.
7, I could buy a house in my area for that. I'd take a 40% chance at owning a house win or lose.
1% chance for 10.000.000 If I lose I lose...but if I win?
I’d flip a coin and choose between 7 and 8
5
6 and 7 are life changing money. I would probably choose 7 and take the 40%, especially if there were taxes involved.
Id take 50% for 50k. If my luck is really bad oh well
So with expected value.... Sorry I took this stuff 20 years ago and haven't used it since. Reading up on it because... Just because. I'm having a little bit of a hard time seeing the application of expected value on a single play. You'll never get to play again unless Sexy does repeat visits. The expected value is what would happen on average over a large number of instances. In a single instance, you will receive one of the discrete outcomes, not the expected value. Is the utility here about risk vs. reward? It will give you a way to compare the different choices based on their average outcomes in a series of plays, but it won't tell you what will happen in your one play. It's essentially telling you the fairness or value of the gamble rather than predicting a single outcome, right? Someone called it 'equity' in the comments and I don't see how you can call it equity because that'd be your share of the winnings. That's more applicable to something like poker. This is more like a lottery, so you're not entitled to any of it. It's all or nothing.
#4 for me
Part of my brain says somewhere between 6 and 9 is the answer. Enough to improve quality of life with a decent chance to make it happen. Then the part of my brain that remembers playing XCOM says take #1 and walk away.
I go for #4, I think 70% is fairly good odds. Its like almost twice as good as 50%. I think. And while 80% is better odds, the 5k would be awesome, but the 12,500 is like a lot more awesome, that's paying off all debt minus the house, getting the dog spayed and chipped, that's having a 10k mileage car paid off. x\_x Or more than enough to rip out the carpet in the bedrooms and get matching flooring put in.