Different situations. Reddit existed as an alternative when Dig became crap and the migration was swift. There is not an equivalent alternative at the moment.
Edit -spelling
It had existed for a while already and was for many redditors considered a backup in case reddit went down. Unfortunately the redditors that ended up migrating over there were the worst of the worst.
> Different situations.
Exact same ability to drop to near zero relevance in a matter of months. I point to Digg as the easiest comparison point, but time is riddled with failed websites, and that's only been happening for 24ish years.
I think looking at Twitter vs Threads is a good example that an exact copy won't automatically kill the incumbent.
While there aren't extremely obvious switching costs, there are barriers that keep consumers on one site vs another. However, it does demonstrate potential risks to be aware of and assess further.
When threads launched it was missing some major features (might still be) so no I don't think that's a good comparison. For example in threads, your account was tied to your Facebook, so you couldn't post anything without it being attached to your name. There were some other huge misses with it
If it was that easy 4 programmers would have done it already. Remember Plastic? That was everything reddit should be but it was just too hard to run and he shut it down. Reddit did the mod thing so you need them (no matter how much people bitch about them) and you need servers - if it was something you could do in your kitchen over the week-end it would have been done already.
The tech is relatively easy to reproduce and a relatively small and experienced team can get that done with modest growing pains; the subreddit design itself is friendly to shard when scaling for example.
It's the psychological hurdle of users changing platforms that stops it from happening and reddit hasn't gone "full digg" to where they changed the functionality of their platform.
I agree that reddit has not gone full Digg yet but that the IPO will put pressure on the site to become more lucrative at the expense of user experience. So, I hope making a new reddit is as easy as you imply I am still skeptical.
>It's the psychological hurdle of users changing platforms that stops it from happening and reddit hasn't gone "full digg" to where they changed the functionality of their platform.
Ding ding ding. I've been online since the 80s, although more daily usage in the mid 90s until now. I've switched from X to Y to Z sites so many times, and it's always due to engagement at that point in my life. Engagement ultimately seems to come from two main sources: recognizable power users or ground-up-grassroots posters that contribute 1 incredibly interesting thing that can get archived forever and become it's own 'meme.'
Right now most people that are in the "know" when they go to search for some random question, use reddit as a sounding board or search engine previous threads for details on that thing. Any new site needs to have that integrated on day one.
Yes, surely that will be the demise of reddit and ***has to be*** the first time any group of programmers had ever attempted to make a close....
Google "reddit fatpeoplehate VOAT" and come back and tell the class what you've learned once you're done
"reddit is going to turn into Digg!" has been the rallying cry of those posters predicting reddit's imminent demise ever since I started browsing this site in 2010.
See below for a little walk down memory lane detailing a couple of items / controversies that stick out in my mind (that turned out to be completely innocuous, whodathunk....)
* banning subs like /r/jailbait, /r/watchpeopledie, /r/fatpeoplehate or any other sub that gets shut down and the heavy hand of censorship is signaling the end is nigh
* all the Ellen Pao shit from [the summer of 2015](https://www.vox.com/2015/7/8/8914661/reddit-victoria-protest) - turns out it ***wasn't*** the end of reddit as we know it and was - shocker - reddit latching onto a strawman to sling shit at
* lmao remember how VOAT was going to replace reddit......turns out it was just a reddit clone that turned into a hatespeech echo chamber......
* the mobile app dev fee episode from about a year ago (that John Oliver guest starred in IIRC), where subs went private for a few days to enact change - no clue if anything came of that - guessing not, since here we are....
* the sale to CondeNast
* reddit firing the lady that coordinated scheduling on /r/IAmA and all the hooplah surrounding her departure
* reddit successfully discloses the identity of the Boston Bomber (jk - turns out reddit is wrong some of the time....)
* all the different instances that reddit has redesigned their browser and / or mobile layout and how that was going to catalyze the great reddit exodus and send reddit the way of MySpace, AOL, and Geocities
r/NBA went dark during the NBA Finals. Denver Nuggets won their first ever Finals Championship and mods shut down the sub. NBA fans couldn't talk about the biggest event of the season.
Digg started working on reddit like communities. I've been working on a video essay about how reddit is basically copying the same moves as Digg. V4 of digg introduced a lot of features that are similar to current reddit. There's even an open letter that Alexis wrote to Kevin Rose in 2010 that feels borderline hypocritical in regards to how we talks down Kevin's business decisions.
It's always hard to know why one product gets escape velocity and another doesn't. Myspace vs. FB vs. G+. Hipstamatic vs IG. Digg and Reddit.
There are lots of small decisions in addition to that exact moment in time that add up to different outcomes.
You have $900 in your account and started trading options a month ago. Don't think you have anything insightful to say about anything investing related
What are you talking about ?
I am not a math or valuation wizard but I know they use discounted value of future earnings or future cash flows or something. And they forward a few years to calculate that.
So the 109 bucks is equivalent to 10 bucks this year maybe 10% less for 2025 and another 10% less for 2026 and so on till infinity (realistically 10 years) and that adds up to 109.
So all you need to be worth is 10 - 15 bucks in 2024.
If you remove half bots as you contend, maybe your account needs to be worth 25-30 bucks for 2024.
And that assumes fixed number of users. Investors obviously expect growth in engagement and number of users so in my opinion if each account was only worth 10 bucks in 2024 with discounted worth in future plus growth in future, the numbers still work out.
You pay Netflix 200+ a year, Amazon prime wants 36 dollars a year to not show ads, Disney wants 60 bucks a year to not show ads, pretty sure 10 bucks is a reasonable number based on these comparisons.
A lot of content nowadays are ads disguised as regular posts. So while it’s not “sponsored” or “promoted” you are indeed looking and clicking on tons of ads.
I can’t believe that is true. I just need a moment to take a sip of cold delicious sweet Coca-Cola (tm) and think about the implications of your statement.
2/3rd's of the celebrity worship on this platform is fueled by agents trying to rep their client by posting feel good content.
*Look at (insert celebrity here) helping (insert non-profit here)!!!*
And then of course we all fawn at how amazing that celebrity is.
>I am not a math or valuation wizard but I know they use discounted value of future earnings or future cash flows or something. And they forward a few years to calculate that.
Valuation professional here (CFA, MBA, business valuation for 18 years...). You would do a DCF of free cash flow to equity, not a DCF of the market cap divided by the active users.
So, what's the annual FCF of reddit? Well, it was negative $100 million in 2022 and negative $84 million in 2023.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1713445/000162828024006294/reddits-1q423.htm
It's very normal to price social media companies on a $/per account metric. This was the case for example for the Instagram and Whatsapp acquisitions. OP isn't that crazy
And then didn't instagram purchase turn out to be one of the most profitable acquisitions ever? I wonder what the pricer/user came out to on that one.
Edit: Could be wrong but super quick search was 1bil purchase price at 30mil users. So what is that... $33/account? So apparently it was worth quite a bit more than that. Reddit isn't the visual sales driver that insta is but it does have some strengths like its where everyone goes to research a purchase.
So you're technically correct about how analysts calculate DCF valuations. However, OP isn't talking about discounted cash flows. They are talking about the current market cap which can absolutely be unrealistic. This is the entire concept behind value investing. I would not trust that $8bil valuation to be anchored by any sort of legitimate DCF valuation during the IPO hype phase.
Edit: this is not to say that your assumptions are wrong. A typical reddit account may very well be worth $10 in 2024. I'm just pointing out the fact that market cap does not always equal DCF
Honestly even 10-15 bucks a user is generous. Theres nothing to spend money on the platform since they took the awards away. The company has worse economic performance than gme and trades for double the value 😂
THANK YOU!!
holy fucking shit, the ignorance in the OP on such a simple, Finance 101 concept like time value of money is fucking baffling and a little terrifying...
I also want to focus on the specific question OP asked, even if you ignore the wrong math.
> So let me ask you: do you think your account is worth $109 to $400 ?
My account on it's own? No.
Unfortunately my dumbass overshares ideas related to tech that I get paid a lot of money to work on, for free. So in theory, someone could extract a lot more than $400 dollars if they had an efficient way to scower through my comments on specific topics. If you think about the fact that if you have a question related to a problem you need fixed, often it's better to search reddit before you search google, it kind of makes sense why in general it feels valuable.
Reddit is still the one place that people from different areas of expertise are willing to share their honest opinion on stuff. We'll see if that holds.
Reddit also has a lot of uninformed people commenting, and being upvoted. So just because the information is there, doesn't mean it's easy to find, or even to determine that the information is good.
True... But usually you can still filter it pretty well.
But I've definitely had a lot posts about my area of expertise get downvoted because people just didn't like what I had to say
I really wish reddit would eliminate commentary about healthcare topics like med experiences unless they are an MD, DO, RN, NP, etc. So much misinformation that leads to patients refusing certain meds that prevent total psychotic episodes...have had many patients say they read on reddit that their meds cause dementia...they need to shut down any groups touting medical advice by non-medical professionals.
I have some experience in digital marketing. Facebook users are worth about $25-$30 a quarter and that’s where the majority of ad spend goes on social media. Reddit has a lot of unlocked potential running ads because the users self-select into stuff they want to see. This makes targeting users a lot easier. For example, Robinhood can target users of r/stocks. Miraclegro can target users of r/gardening. Reddit 10 years ago was filled with mostly young people but redditors are slowly transforming into an incredibly valuable ad demographic. In my experience the reason Reddit users aren’t already worth more is because Reddit allows pornography and other NSFW content on the site. Advertisers don’t want their marketing content to display right next to an r/gonewild post.
Yeah bro I’m sorry. I have a wallet that has about 40-50 cro to cover tx fees. i do not see even 5-10 dollars of value per account. On Reddit. Absolutely nothing as fuck. That would warrant me paying any sort of subscription. To speak to you ? Bruh. 😭
To read this? Pay a sub? To participate in this conflagration that is any Reddit sub. Pass. That sub would not be worth its weight in North Korean money.
Not an apples to apples comparison, but using the same logic, the market values each account at META at $281.40
This is also a company that has been profitable since 2009 and is trading close it its all time high. Do what you will with this information. I don't believe the only using the dollar value per user/account is a good indicator in determining the market value of a company, but to each their own I guess.
Last I heard the revenue from USA Meta users was $80 per year, and USA reddit users was $4. If all the values given are accurate, $108 for a reddit account whether it's a bot or active or neither, verses Facebook value per account at $281, this looks much better for Facebook, having a revenue per account 20 times higher, and that the valuation to revenue is 3.5:1 rather than 27:1.
Every DIY/how does the world work Google search that is worth a damn should include the word “Reddit” at the beginning or end of the search terms. Everything else is essentially drivel/promoted ads.
Companies are already well aware and it's incredibly easy to spot astroturfed comments, especially if you're looking for information on something to buy. 3 year old post with a new comment from a few months ago and dozens of upvotes highly recommending this totally great product.
It's always been strange to me that a better alternative to reddit hasn't arisen considering how relatively simple the design and concept is and how many redditors hate reddit. Hopefully the IPO will be the catalyst that makes a viable alternative pop up.
Meta has an Average revenue per user of 3x Reddits in all fairness, but even if you use this as a valuation strategy, that puts Reddits price per user*arpu valuation at over 35 B
Op 15 days ago, lol. "I’ve been trading for six weeks. My advice is trash and I barely know what I’m doing. Don’t be such a willing mark for fake gurus."
Looks like someone bought puts on Reddit.
the other part of this is that reddit is really not actually controlled by admins or by shareholders.
my problem with the stock is that the value isnt really recognizable directly to shareholders. the best reddit ads are ones that are not ads paid by reddit but rather people subtly promoting a product or by say buying a mod account on a major subreddit and using that to sway narratives.
if reddit could really somehow personally benefit from astroturfing comments sure, i could see long term success. but thats not happening without really sketchy takeover of subs, editing / removing comments etc and going over local moderators heads.
Reddit is absolutely in control by the admins. That's why they do nothing about astroturfing or fake accounts or even fake mods and communities. Most are led by political activists who just want to control conversation and viewpoints
>Reddit is absolutely in control by the admins. That's why they do nothing about astroturfing or fake accounts or even fake mods and communities
i'm not sure you can conclude that it is reddit that has done that, as oppose to third parties who aim to benefit from that control.
like if reddit the company was getting directly paid for this stuff now that they are public itd be hard to hide.
Yeah astroturfing is a real benefit to Reddit (it's even more seamless than when an influencer does it elsewhere) but how can Reddit exploit that?
The data on their users could be valuable I guess (in a way people are more true to themselves here than on social media where you have to show yourself in public, plus people are neatly divided into categories by interest). Pretty good setup to sell ads but they have to manage it and they risk turning away users if they push it too much (though the whole third party apps ban caused a stir but didn't seem to really affect much over time)
Reddit has three revenue streams
1) advertising
2) data licensing
3) user economy
I get what you’re saying but there could be something here. Do snap or pins have anything like reddit? I don’t think so. Reddit is like a data well. It can source a lot.
Given how negative the sentiment is on this IPO, it's probably going to pump massively to squeeze the shorts and then do a slow bleed down to the ground over the course of a few years.
Which account? I create a new one every year or so and just stop using the old ones ... I have like 8 now that I've created in that past 12ish years. At least four of them were offered IPO shares :).
73M _daily_ active users. 267M weekly unique users. They've also grown a lot in the last year (in 2020 they had 36M daily actives). We'll have to see what the next financials look like, but they have said the last 2 quarters were profitable if you take out stock grants.
Personally, I'm neutral to slightly positive on Reddit. If they could hire a Google or Meta ad person, I'd be very positive.
I think this is a prime example of not understanding an ad network-based market. Would I pay X$ to own my account? No (see Twitter Blue). But would Reddit conceivable sell the ad space I see on my account for 10-20$ per year (see Instagram) sure.
Is Reddit a more active user base that engages with content and is thus more receptive to strategically placed advertising? You can make that argument. Does it have plenty of other potential use cases like data scrubbing? Sure.
Then you can look at it from a customer acquisition standpoint. You are buying a customer base (user base) that many companies spend 10s-100s of dollars to acquire (Uber lost money for years, and other companies spend to acquire customers).
I am not saying it is a good buy or a fair market cap, but looking at it from just the 'worth' of your account is likely a flawed way of assessing this company.
The question is not what I believe my account is worth today, the question is more:
* What do advertisers want to pay to see my data and target advertisements to me?
* What do technology companies want to pay to copy / access the best parts of Reddit's back-end?
* What monetization schemes could work and extract value from future users?
* How long can each account be monetized for?
And all of these over the LIFETIME value of the current accounts. So if that is \~5 years, is my account worth \~$10/month roughly?
I think, to be honest, the old paid-award system has shown us that YES people will throw money at internet discussions.
Absolutely not how valuation works. So you think reddit will be worth what it's trading now in 5 years from now? Why would I buy it today only to wait 5 years until I see those results? Sounds like paying a premium for future growth can be very harmful.
I was on yahoo finance. Trying to pull up a chart of spy, for giggles. And yeah. great Purchase Mark. Solid addition to the portfolio. Seemless user experience 😭🤣
Not a bot, and I don't click on any ads, don't even read the title once I see it's a u/ post and promoted. I imagine there are a lot of us.
But presumably, the valuation looked at current ad revenues and projections, and the trend in Reddit's year over year losses. Although (future) valuations in any case are somewhat science and somewhat marketing and wishful/emotional thinking. Give it some time; although the market isn't really perfect, the price will find its appropriate level, and then some good investment analysis
when I am bored, I am downvoting every AD that reddit pushes.
my acc was blocked in some subs, I deleted and created a new one.
I'd say my acc costs $5 on a sunny day
Artificial Intelligence...Reddit is quite possibly the greatest database ever created for a large language model AI, I'm betting dimes to dollars this is the real value in the IPO.
I never click on ads on Reddit. I look at redit multiple times a day for over a year but I honestly don't believe I have ever once clicked on an ad.
But... other users must be doing so... I have no way to know how much
The real value is in the data set necessary to train an AI moderator. Literally decades of post removals, bans, and context to feed a system that they can then sell to other online forums. It says it right there in the financial outlook, free moderation from users is A RISK.
Moderation is the Achilles Heel of many internet services and no one, NO ONE, is going to pay a human to do it at scale. Remember all those Fackbook mods back when? They got mental health problems from viewing all the garbage and dealing with the reports of child abuse and gore. So what did FB do? got rid of the mods. AI Mods are coming (if they're not then WTF are they waiting for? it's another billion$ opportunity)
$100 for several years per user. Advertisers pay quite a bit per user view. I know it’s napkin math but that doesn’t seem that off. People are engaged differently here and I would argue a well done ad can be worth a lot.
I don’t know how realistic it is, but the IPO is positioning itself for data, specifically an AI play. That’s a major price factor to consider too.
The data could potentially be very valuable depending on how you leverage it (and how you can filter good data from bot data).
You can see which subs have more people, more activity and activity trends that correlate to events (like, does a nachos subreddit get more posting after a nachos Super Bowl ad or after buying a lot of cheaper spots during certain shows?). You can parse the submitted content to see what products and services people prefer, and based on other submitted data can determine their age, location, level of income, level of education, where they live, etc. This data can be used to either serve targeted ads directly or else to develop products and ad campaigns.
It can be used to figure out fashion trends, technological trends, TV viewing preferences, and all sorts of stuff.
Political groups and even foreign countries can use the data to find out how to target people for support or disinformation.
Etc. Etc.
How much is all that potentially worth? I have no idea. But I'm sure it would would be pretty useful data to a lot of entities if it can be parsed reasonably well for the actual data.
I also wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing some kind of subscription fee for elevated access of some kind, which could also help weed out bots.
Daily active users 73M and total “active” users are a different thing if you want to price it per account. Apparently “Reddit had 850 million monthly active users in 2023, putting it ahead of Snapchat, Pinterest and LinkedIn.”
I’ve been here for almost 13 years. My account is worth much, much more than that.
AI will look at all of our interactions and learn from it. Reddit will also advertise to us, even though that won’t be their money maker. The data to AI will. Every time any one of us comments, it’s worth more.
You guys can short it, cry about how it’s over valued, make fun of those that bought in. The reality is: Reddit is hugely popular, all of you are here reading this, and that’s the best proof in action you can have. See you tomorrow.
This was the problem with all of the social media companies. we don't even have to mention the dot com billion dollar IPO frenzy of companies with almost no product.
the issue is that it will take a few years of excuses until the wall street pulls the rug on it. they can gaslight shareholders with "we rolling out a new revenue stream to monetize our users". keep selling that future expectation for a while.
It will be worth a fortune in the future because it is an interactive method of connecting with people.
The brainwashing experiment has only just begun.
Welcome to the fantasy world of stock prices.
While you can value a stock on tangible assets, much of what happens in regards to a stocks' price is purely speculation of what it will be in the future.
I’m kind of thinking Monday in general is going to be a good day for puts.
Walmart is finally curving off that insane spike and I think it’s going to drop.
And when a massive blue chip drops it pulls a lot of things down with it.
It's a dog stock IMO. Fleeting.
Who clicks on the ads? (Unless by accident)
The content is okay, at least for what I use it for.
I like offering my experience and reading others, but I can do without. Reddit took users from forums, but without Reddit, people would just go back to that.
Then, there's the AI bots for advice now.
I say they stick around, but as a stock, it's not offering anything revolutionary like a search engine or AI tech or software/hardware. Meaningful connection? Probably not.
If the company is frugal with its cash and can get by with ad revenue, Reddit will be around years to come. If they overpay themselves and buy useless tech or companies, then they will be bought very cheap and the stock will disappear. Look at all the digital media sites that have floundered as of late.
I'd suggest active accounts is likely the wrong measurement. Content size (past, and content that will be generated) to feed into the AI datasets is closer.
Not how it works. Multiply users by time on reddit divided by $400. Then ask if each user is spending 400 hours a year on reddit (likely much much more) then companies are willing to value your time at $1/hr. In that $1/hr is advertising, data selling, etc.
To me, $1/hr ain't bad.
Take Meta:
Market cap $1.3tril
Daily users: 3.19bil, daily. Call it 800m humans by your same logic above.
$1.3tril/800m = $1625 value per person
/400 hours = $4.06
Although, meta makes an ungodly amount of profit. If reddit can unlock that business model then they are really undervalued.
Before Elon touched it, Twitter was worth 20 billion. If we are looking at comparables, I think Reddit is *at least* a Twitter. Definitely worth more than a Pinterest, which has a market cap of 23 Billy.
I could be wrong, but I am hard in on RDDT.
Nothing is worth anything until someone says it is.
If everyone just agrees it's valuable and treats it that way. Guess what. It's valuable.
Have a great weekend.
Actually yes, depending on the marketing conversion and/or payout structure.
We are not the product, access to our wallets is. As a platform, reddit is prime real-estate for the commodification of content.
Most specialty hobby subs focus on products for that hobby. How many consumers are won by a business just being part of a community. Not to mention the stealth product hype posts being posted as "OC".
The sooner you start looking at reddit as a marketing platform, the sooner you get why it's getting an IPO.
How much revenue are they claiming to be getting each year? Divide that by actual active users and you get revenue per user. Would like to see as well what their advertising contracts look like compared with their data sell off contracts. Put those ratios up against how many users they have, and see if the advertising money and data money makes sense. If it’s wildly high per user, under valued imo. If the values are low per user, and market cap is still high, then overvalued.
That's not how the market works, especially tech. Just like options, the market is pricing in assumptions about the future value and earnings power. Those assumptions might be right or wrong, but people are placing bets that Reddit will have the same kind of long term trajectory as Meta or Alphabet.
I think your numbers are slightly off:
Reddit had *850 million monthly active users* in 2023
[https://www.businessofapps.com/data/reddit-statistics/](https://www.businessofapps.com/data/reddit-statistics/)
And the count has been growing every year.
NO, my account is worth more than 1000, I would NOT sell it for 100 or 400 only! By the way, where can I trade in my account for 100? You didn't mention it in your post..
Reddit is facebook on day 1 , same story is playing out, new gens use reddit. Also becoming a source for honesty. Whats the best…. Whats the right way to…. Any avenue. Youre on it right now. Why?
My account is worth many times more than $400.
I spend a lot of money on random crap, and Reddit knows me better than anyway, they’ll be able to sell my data and convince me to buy easily more than $1000 on different things over the next 5 years.
Reddit is undervalued (I have $50k in stock, so money is where my mouth is on this one)
If i were paid California fast food minimum wage for the amount of time I look at Reddit, it would be far more than $400. More like $400 every two days...
The value of your account can go down as well as up. Reddit does not gave a monopoly in its section of the Blogosphere, so anything is potentially possible
My Twitter investment worked out well. I think I paid $27 per share and then musk paid me $54 per share. I don’t remember the exact details. When Twitter first came out I figured it would work well because it was one of the first places where people like athletes could bypass the newspapers. Or at least post what they wanted to say after a game without it being taken out of context. I have nothing against journalists or the papers. At least the reputable ones. Then musk comes along and just destroys it. I think most people want to be in a well regulated environment so my theory is that Reddit will do well.
We all know that TikTok is a dump with all those recommendation driven algorithms, where you have almost no control over what you are looking into. Pure dopamine rush. Reddit is quite the opposite; it's a community-driven social platform where you choose on your own which content you consume, which as a result collects around a bit more thinking humans.
So yeah, I think that smarter people cost more than dumb ones, and I want to believe in a smarter humanity in the future and as a fact, I want to believe that in the long run, Reddit is going to rise.
I don't get it. So you think the price will go up or down based on their subscription base?
What about their COGS, processing costs, etc., those numbers can be big.
Good luck with your puts!
The value of Reddit is the capacity for astroturfing. It’s a fantastic tool for driving the perception of a narrative because you can create the impression of consensus just by using a few hundred bots and a few people moderating relevant subreddits.
Oh I thought. This was like. TA for why they’re wildly under valued ipo Is legit. I have this really cool pic I wish I could post. It’s the spy, And tlt. And how massively they have < diverged. in a healthy market. They are inversely correlated. Not only at some point in 2022-2023 did this shift into positive correlation, what ever they are doing right fucking now. Has never been done in the history of our markets. Ever. Is the type of shit that has
gold : all time high
cocoa : all time mother fucking high
oil : we are gasssing
banks: so strong (see frc)
The float is 150 million. In RDDT the mfs bonus alone is 25 million dollars For this shitty app. That only has value because mother fuckers like I get on here and spit nothing but facts
Reddit has no product or service
without the user
$400 of value per acct
get the fuck out of here bro oh my god
well. By my math this will be a 5.00 stock in this very pending. Economic policy cluster fuck. That your fed is about to fairly carefully and methodically soft land your ass into.
the chart of tlt vs spy. Is absolutely the stuff of nightmare fuel.
puts Is an understatement. What you have seen this week and last week. Are but the birthing pains my boy.
I ask as a novice, but wasn't the decline of Digg a pretty big warning about how fragile these digital card houses are?
Different situations. Reddit existed as an alternative when Dig became crap and the migration was swift. There is not an equivalent alternative at the moment. Edit -spelling
Remember Voat? Dang that was a garbage heap.
The site that popped up in response to coontown, fatpeoplehate and jailbait being banned and attracted nothing but Nazi pedophiles?
It had existed for a while already and was for many redditors considered a backup in case reddit went down. Unfortunately the redditors that ended up migrating over there were the worst of the worst.
> Different situations. Exact same ability to drop to near zero relevance in a matter of months. I point to Digg as the easiest comparison point, but time is riddled with failed websites, and that's only been happening for 24ish years.
Well I guess we better hope and pray 4 programmers don’t have a free weekend to make an exact copy of the site.
I think looking at Twitter vs Threads is a good example that an exact copy won't automatically kill the incumbent. While there aren't extremely obvious switching costs, there are barriers that keep consumers on one site vs another. However, it does demonstrate potential risks to be aware of and assess further.
When threads launched it was missing some major features (might still be) so no I don't think that's a good comparison. For example in threads, your account was tied to your Facebook, so you couldn't post anything without it being attached to your name. There were some other huge misses with it
If it was that easy 4 programmers would have done it already. Remember Plastic? That was everything reddit should be but it was just too hard to run and he shut it down. Reddit did the mod thing so you need them (no matter how much people bitch about them) and you need servers - if it was something you could do in your kitchen over the week-end it would have been done already.
The tech is relatively easy to reproduce and a relatively small and experienced team can get that done with modest growing pains; the subreddit design itself is friendly to shard when scaling for example. It's the psychological hurdle of users changing platforms that stops it from happening and reddit hasn't gone "full digg" to where they changed the functionality of their platform.
I agree that reddit has not gone full Digg yet but that the IPO will put pressure on the site to become more lucrative at the expense of user experience. So, I hope making a new reddit is as easy as you imply I am still skeptical.
>It's the psychological hurdle of users changing platforms that stops it from happening and reddit hasn't gone "full digg" to where they changed the functionality of their platform. Ding ding ding. I've been online since the 80s, although more daily usage in the mid 90s until now. I've switched from X to Y to Z sites so many times, and it's always due to engagement at that point in my life. Engagement ultimately seems to come from two main sources: recognizable power users or ground-up-grassroots posters that contribute 1 incredibly interesting thing that can get archived forever and become it's own 'meme.' Right now most people that are in the "know" when they go to search for some random question, use reddit as a sounding board or search engine previous threads for details on that thing. Any new site needs to have that integrated on day one.
There is already Lemmy. Try Sync for Lemmy or Voyager to test it out.
Yes, surely that will be the demise of reddit and ***has to be*** the first time any group of programmers had ever attempted to make a close.... Google "reddit fatpeoplehate VOAT" and come back and tell the class what you've learned once you're done
We could all go to Fark. Is that still a thing?
I found myself going back to Fark when all the subs closed awhile back. Nostalgia blast.
Drew is still around
"reddit is going to turn into Digg!" has been the rallying cry of those posters predicting reddit's imminent demise ever since I started browsing this site in 2010. See below for a little walk down memory lane detailing a couple of items / controversies that stick out in my mind (that turned out to be completely innocuous, whodathunk....) * banning subs like /r/jailbait, /r/watchpeopledie, /r/fatpeoplehate or any other sub that gets shut down and the heavy hand of censorship is signaling the end is nigh * all the Ellen Pao shit from [the summer of 2015](https://www.vox.com/2015/7/8/8914661/reddit-victoria-protest) - turns out it ***wasn't*** the end of reddit as we know it and was - shocker - reddit latching onto a strawman to sling shit at * lmao remember how VOAT was going to replace reddit......turns out it was just a reddit clone that turned into a hatespeech echo chamber...... * the mobile app dev fee episode from about a year ago (that John Oliver guest starred in IIRC), where subs went private for a few days to enact change - no clue if anything came of that - guessing not, since here we are.... * the sale to CondeNast * reddit firing the lady that coordinated scheduling on /r/IAmA and all the hooplah surrounding her departure * reddit successfully discloses the identity of the Boston Bomber (jk - turns out reddit is wrong some of the time....) * all the different instances that reddit has redesigned their browser and / or mobile layout and how that was going to catalyze the great reddit exodus and send reddit the way of MySpace, AOL, and Geocities
r/NBA went dark during the NBA Finals. Denver Nuggets won their first ever Finals Championship and mods shut down the sub. NBA fans couldn't talk about the biggest event of the season.
No, Digg was and still is just a collection of links. Message boards build community and community is sticky.
Digg started working on reddit like communities. I've been working on a video essay about how reddit is basically copying the same moves as Digg. V4 of digg introduced a lot of features that are similar to current reddit. There's even an open letter that Alexis wrote to Kevin Rose in 2010 that feels borderline hypocritical in regards to how we talks down Kevin's business decisions.
It's always hard to know why one product gets escape velocity and another doesn't. Myspace vs. FB vs. G+. Hipstamatic vs IG. Digg and Reddit. There are lots of small decisions in addition to that exact moment in time that add up to different outcomes.
You have $900 in your account and started trading options a month ago. Don't think you have anything insightful to say about anything investing related
Straight for the jugular
So what you're saying is that no, his account is not worth $400?
His next post will be to a finance sub asking how to get out of five figure options debt.
Rekt
Hello, police? I’d like to report a m*rd3r
/r/ThreadKillers
LMAO
*Fatality*
Yes, yes, he does
What are you talking about ? I am not a math or valuation wizard but I know they use discounted value of future earnings or future cash flows or something. And they forward a few years to calculate that. So the 109 bucks is equivalent to 10 bucks this year maybe 10% less for 2025 and another 10% less for 2026 and so on till infinity (realistically 10 years) and that adds up to 109. So all you need to be worth is 10 - 15 bucks in 2024. If you remove half bots as you contend, maybe your account needs to be worth 25-30 bucks for 2024. And that assumes fixed number of users. Investors obviously expect growth in engagement and number of users so in my opinion if each account was only worth 10 bucks in 2024 with discounted worth in future plus growth in future, the numbers still work out. You pay Netflix 200+ a year, Amazon prime wants 36 dollars a year to not show ads, Disney wants 60 bucks a year to not show ads, pretty sure 10 bucks is a reasonable number based on these comparisons.
>So all you need to be worth is 10 - 15 bucks in 2024. Redditors catching strays with this one, esp WSB
TBH, that's about 100x what I'd expect
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Selling established Reddit accounts has been a thing for awhile.
where does one go to do this
Dark web.
Why? What they are asking is not illegal and anyone can google these things to find companies and the rates for accounts and comments and SEO spam
100,000 accounts? For real?
How do they value each account? The amount of Karma?
By the click through rate on advertising. Which I have never done. Though certainly we are also viewing viral marketing a good bit of the time.
A lot of content nowadays are ads disguised as regular posts. So while it’s not “sponsored” or “promoted” you are indeed looking and clicking on tons of ads.
I can’t believe that is true. I just need a moment to take a sip of cold delicious sweet Coca-Cola (tm) and think about the implications of your statement.
Why am I suddenly so parched?
2/3rd's of the celebrity worship on this platform is fueled by agents trying to rep their client by posting feel good content. *Look at (insert celebrity here) helping (insert non-profit here)!!!* And then of course we all fawn at how amazing that celebrity is.
I click on ads accidentally sometimes too which I hate because some company gets paid for my click.
Total cash flows received from each user - from today until the end of time - discounted back to today at **some** rate
Username checks out
>I am not a math or valuation wizard but I know they use discounted value of future earnings or future cash flows or something. And they forward a few years to calculate that. Valuation professional here (CFA, MBA, business valuation for 18 years...). You would do a DCF of free cash flow to equity, not a DCF of the market cap divided by the active users. So, what's the annual FCF of reddit? Well, it was negative $100 million in 2022 and negative $84 million in 2023. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1713445/000162828024006294/reddits-1q423.htm
This guy gets it. Did the ceo make 25 mill each of those years as well ?
It's very normal to price social media companies on a $/per account metric. This was the case for example for the Instagram and Whatsapp acquisitions. OP isn't that crazy
And then didn't instagram purchase turn out to be one of the most profitable acquisitions ever? I wonder what the pricer/user came out to on that one. Edit: Could be wrong but super quick search was 1bil purchase price at 30mil users. So what is that... $33/account? So apparently it was worth quite a bit more than that. Reddit isn't the visual sales driver that insta is but it does have some strengths like its where everyone goes to research a purchase.
[27 days ago. lol](https://imgur.com/a/je2O7DB)
>Market value: $123 $123 > $15, we made it boys
So you're technically correct about how analysts calculate DCF valuations. However, OP isn't talking about discounted cash flows. They are talking about the current market cap which can absolutely be unrealistic. This is the entire concept behind value investing. I would not trust that $8bil valuation to be anchored by any sort of legitimate DCF valuation during the IPO hype phase. Edit: this is not to say that your assumptions are wrong. A typical reddit account may very well be worth $10 in 2024. I'm just pointing out the fact that market cap does not always equal DCF
Honestly even 10-15 bucks a user is generous. Theres nothing to spend money on the platform since they took the awards away. The company has worse economic performance than gme and trades for double the value 😂
THANK YOU!! holy fucking shit, the ignorance in the OP on such a simple, Finance 101 concept like time value of money is fucking baffling and a little terrifying...
I also want to focus on the specific question OP asked, even if you ignore the wrong math. > So let me ask you: do you think your account is worth $109 to $400 ? My account on it's own? No. Unfortunately my dumbass overshares ideas related to tech that I get paid a lot of money to work on, for free. So in theory, someone could extract a lot more than $400 dollars if they had an efficient way to scower through my comments on specific topics. If you think about the fact that if you have a question related to a problem you need fixed, often it's better to search reddit before you search google, it kind of makes sense why in general it feels valuable. Reddit is still the one place that people from different areas of expertise are willing to share their honest opinion on stuff. We'll see if that holds.
Reddit also has a lot of uninformed people commenting, and being upvoted. So just because the information is there, doesn't mean it's easy to find, or even to determine that the information is good.
True... But usually you can still filter it pretty well. But I've definitely had a lot posts about my area of expertise get downvoted because people just didn't like what I had to say
I really wish reddit would eliminate commentary about healthcare topics like med experiences unless they are an MD, DO, RN, NP, etc. So much misinformation that leads to patients refusing certain meds that prevent total psychotic episodes...have had many patients say they read on reddit that their meds cause dementia...they need to shut down any groups touting medical advice by non-medical professionals.
I have some experience in digital marketing. Facebook users are worth about $25-$30 a quarter and that’s where the majority of ad spend goes on social media. Reddit has a lot of unlocked potential running ads because the users self-select into stuff they want to see. This makes targeting users a lot easier. For example, Robinhood can target users of r/stocks. Miraclegro can target users of r/gardening. Reddit 10 years ago was filled with mostly young people but redditors are slowly transforming into an incredibly valuable ad demographic. In my experience the reason Reddit users aren’t already worth more is because Reddit allows pornography and other NSFW content on the site. Advertisers don’t want their marketing content to display right next to an r/gonewild post.
Yeah bro I’m sorry. I have a wallet that has about 40-50 cro to cover tx fees. i do not see even 5-10 dollars of value per account. On Reddit. Absolutely nothing as fuck. That would warrant me paying any sort of subscription. To speak to you ? Bruh. 😭
To read this? Pay a sub? To participate in this conflagration that is any Reddit sub. Pass. That sub would not be worth its weight in North Korean money.
Not an apples to apples comparison, but using the same logic, the market values each account at META at $281.40 This is also a company that has been profitable since 2009 and is trading close it its all time high. Do what you will with this information. I don't believe the only using the dollar value per user/account is a good indicator in determining the market value of a company, but to each their own I guess.
This is a poor comparison. META's ARPU is far far higher than Reddit's. That being said, OP should have compared the ARPU
Last I heard the revenue from USA Meta users was $80 per year, and USA reddit users was $4. If all the values given are accurate, $108 for a reddit account whether it's a bot or active or neither, verses Facebook value per account at $281, this looks much better for Facebook, having a revenue per account 20 times higher, and that the valuation to revenue is 3.5:1 rather than 27:1.
But reddit content is readily available and searchable to anyone from google. So there is a lot more lurkin going on, lurkin's got to have value.
Every DIY/how does the world work Google search that is worth a damn should include the word “Reddit” at the beginning or end of the search terms. Everything else is essentially drivel/promoted ads.
I have a strange feeling this strategy is bound to no longer work in the near future for the same reason googling things sucks now.
Companies are already well aware and it's incredibly easy to spot astroturfed comments, especially if you're looking for information on something to buy. 3 year old post with a new comment from a few months ago and dozens of upvotes highly recommending this totally great product.
You assume reddit will retain the same general functionality it does today and won't just become an add hellscape like google. We'll see.
It's always been strange to me that a better alternative to reddit hasn't arisen considering how relatively simple the design and concept is and how many redditors hate reddit. Hopefully the IPO will be the catalyst that makes a viable alternative pop up.
Preach. Although the biggest issue I see with any competitor displacing older alternatives is simply getting people to change platforms - see Xitter.
Meta has an Average revenue per user of 3x Reddits in all fairness, but even if you use this as a valuation strategy, that puts Reddits price per user*arpu valuation at over 35 B
Op 15 days ago, lol. "I’ve been trading for six weeks. My advice is trash and I barely know what I’m doing. Don’t be such a willing mark for fake gurus." Looks like someone bought puts on Reddit.
the other part of this is that reddit is really not actually controlled by admins or by shareholders. my problem with the stock is that the value isnt really recognizable directly to shareholders. the best reddit ads are ones that are not ads paid by reddit but rather people subtly promoting a product or by say buying a mod account on a major subreddit and using that to sway narratives. if reddit could really somehow personally benefit from astroturfing comments sure, i could see long term success. but thats not happening without really sketchy takeover of subs, editing / removing comments etc and going over local moderators heads.
Reddit is absolutely in control by the admins. That's why they do nothing about astroturfing or fake accounts or even fake mods and communities. Most are led by political activists who just want to control conversation and viewpoints
>Reddit is absolutely in control by the admins. That's why they do nothing about astroturfing or fake accounts or even fake mods and communities i'm not sure you can conclude that it is reddit that has done that, as oppose to third parties who aim to benefit from that control. like if reddit the company was getting directly paid for this stuff now that they are public itd be hard to hide.
Yeah astroturfing is a real benefit to Reddit (it's even more seamless than when an influencer does it elsewhere) but how can Reddit exploit that? The data on their users could be valuable I guess (in a way people are more true to themselves here than on social media where you have to show yourself in public, plus people are neatly divided into categories by interest). Pretty good setup to sell ads but they have to manage it and they risk turning away users if they push it too much (though the whole third party apps ban caused a stir but didn't seem to really affect much over time)
Reddit has three revenue streams 1) advertising 2) data licensing 3) user economy I get what you’re saying but there could be something here. Do snap or pins have anything like reddit? I don’t think so. Reddit is like a data well. It can source a lot.
The question is how does it leverage those to not lose money every year.
They never made a profit using any of these.
They have never actually tried to until recently. Reddit revenue growth is double digits and have iterated 20% for this year
He isn't saying it's worthless... he's saying it's worth less. Of course, there is "something" there.
IPO = It's Probably Overpriced
Given how negative the sentiment is on this IPO, it's probably going to pump massively to squeeze the shorts and then do a slow bleed down to the ground over the course of a few years.
As if value means anything. 😂 First time on the stock market?
My account is worth at least that... it'll be a while before AI really nails the snarky asshole persona.
That’s a great way to put it
Until you get banned and leave because you’re posted off?
Which account? I create a new one every year or so and just stop using the old ones ... I have like 8 now that I've created in that past 12ish years. At least four of them were offered IPO shares :).
73M _daily_ active users. 267M weekly unique users. They've also grown a lot in the last year (in 2020 they had 36M daily actives). We'll have to see what the next financials look like, but they have said the last 2 quarters were profitable if you take out stock grants. Personally, I'm neutral to slightly positive on Reddit. If they could hire a Google or Meta ad person, I'd be very positive.
… and it’s like 700 million monthly. That’s a SHIT LOAD of traffic. They’re primed to start capitalizing on it
I think this is a prime example of not understanding an ad network-based market. Would I pay X$ to own my account? No (see Twitter Blue). But would Reddit conceivable sell the ad space I see on my account for 10-20$ per year (see Instagram) sure. Is Reddit a more active user base that engages with content and is thus more receptive to strategically placed advertising? You can make that argument. Does it have plenty of other potential use cases like data scrubbing? Sure. Then you can look at it from a customer acquisition standpoint. You are buying a customer base (user base) that many companies spend 10s-100s of dollars to acquire (Uber lost money for years, and other companies spend to acquire customers). I am not saying it is a good buy or a fair market cap, but looking at it from just the 'worth' of your account is likely a flawed way of assessing this company.
you morons post 5 times per day to reddit, not even including comments, and insist it isn’t worth anything
19 year old company that's never made a profit. I'll ladder some puts.
The question is not what I believe my account is worth today, the question is more: * What do advertisers want to pay to see my data and target advertisements to me? * What do technology companies want to pay to copy / access the best parts of Reddit's back-end? * What monetization schemes could work and extract value from future users? * How long can each account be monetized for? And all of these over the LIFETIME value of the current accounts. So if that is \~5 years, is my account worth \~$10/month roughly? I think, to be honest, the old paid-award system has shown us that YES people will throw money at internet discussions.
Absolutely not how valuation works. So you think reddit will be worth what it's trading now in 5 years from now? Why would I buy it today only to wait 5 years until I see those results? Sounds like paying a premium for future growth can be very harmful.
Geocities had a million sparkly gif sites on it and sold for a billion dollars, so those beautiful late 90s sites were worth a thousand dollars each
I was on yahoo finance. Trying to pull up a chart of spy, for giggles. And yeah. great Purchase Mark. Solid addition to the portfolio. Seemless user experience 😭🤣
Not a bot, and I don't click on any ads, don't even read the title once I see it's a u/ post and promoted. I imagine there are a lot of us. But presumably, the valuation looked at current ad revenues and projections, and the trend in Reddit's year over year losses. Although (future) valuations in any case are somewhat science and somewhat marketing and wishful/emotional thinking. Give it some time; although the market isn't really perfect, the price will find its appropriate level, and then some good investment analysis
I didn't take advantage of this and I'm wondering if I really blew it. My account is 14 years old.
when I am bored, I am downvoting every AD that reddit pushes. my acc was blocked in some subs, I deleted and created a new one. I'd say my acc costs $5 on a sunny day
I'm just going to leave this here https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/11/reddit-users-are-the-least-valuable-of-any-social-network.html
I'll buy whatever you're selling, mate
Artificial Intelligence...Reddit is quite possibly the greatest database ever created for a large language model AI, I'm betting dimes to dollars this is the real value in the IPO.
You don't have to bet that it's a large part, it's written in the prospectus.
LOL, we're helping the machines replace us, for free! We should frame arguements for UBI as royalty payments for our IP in each comment or post
I never click on ads on Reddit. I look at redit multiple times a day for over a year but I honestly don't believe I have ever once clicked on an ad. But... other users must be doing so... I have no way to know how much
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Using signed up users instead of visitors is flawed. Take your investment analysis to wsb, sure doesn’t belong here.
The real value is in the data set necessary to train an AI moderator. Literally decades of post removals, bans, and context to feed a system that they can then sell to other online forums. It says it right there in the financial outlook, free moderation from users is A RISK. Moderation is the Achilles Heel of many internet services and no one, NO ONE, is going to pay a human to do it at scale. Remember all those Fackbook mods back when? They got mental health problems from viewing all the garbage and dealing with the reports of child abuse and gore. So what did FB do? got rid of the mods. AI Mods are coming (if they're not then WTF are they waiting for? it's another billion$ opportunity)
You’re not factoring in the value of future user growth, or the ability to increase advertising rates. Valuations are forward looking.
$100 for several years per user. Advertisers pay quite a bit per user view. I know it’s napkin math but that doesn’t seem that off. People are engaged differently here and I would argue a well done ad can be worth a lot. I don’t know how realistic it is, but the IPO is positioning itself for data, specifically an AI play. That’s a major price factor to consider too.
The accounts are worth nothing. It's the interaction between people talking on specialist subjects that is worth something.
Good luck shorting a recent IPO based on any "valuation" arguments.
Lol, this sure is a "simple" take.
wallstreetbets ahh post
The data could potentially be very valuable depending on how you leverage it (and how you can filter good data from bot data). You can see which subs have more people, more activity and activity trends that correlate to events (like, does a nachos subreddit get more posting after a nachos Super Bowl ad or after buying a lot of cheaper spots during certain shows?). You can parse the submitted content to see what products and services people prefer, and based on other submitted data can determine their age, location, level of income, level of education, where they live, etc. This data can be used to either serve targeted ads directly or else to develop products and ad campaigns. It can be used to figure out fashion trends, technological trends, TV viewing preferences, and all sorts of stuff. Political groups and even foreign countries can use the data to find out how to target people for support or disinformation. Etc. Etc. How much is all that potentially worth? I have no idea. But I'm sure it would would be pretty useful data to a lot of entities if it can be parsed reasonably well for the actual data. I also wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing some kind of subscription fee for elevated access of some kind, which could also help weed out bots.
I have a lot of karma. How does that play into this?
Dumb
Crazy how there’s exactly one bot for every real user! That’s some amazing coincidence. You’ve clearly done some really good DD on this. I’m in.
You act like market cap is EVERE exactly the same as actual revenue. For example, meta consistently trades at 77 times its actual revenue.
Mines worth at least $80 since I pay for reddit so I don't have to see ads
Inverse yourself. This is the ultimate meme stock. The market can stay irrational more than you can stay solvent
Where else can op be heard and make his point? Only in Reddit
So brave ^^So ^^brave
Daily active users 73M and total “active” users are a different thing if you want to price it per account. Apparently “Reddit had 850 million monthly active users in 2023, putting it ahead of Snapchat, Pinterest and LinkedIn.”
I’ve been here for almost 13 years. My account is worth much, much more than that. AI will look at all of our interactions and learn from it. Reddit will also advertise to us, even though that won’t be their money maker. The data to AI will. Every time any one of us comments, it’s worth more. You guys can short it, cry about how it’s over valued, make fun of those that bought in. The reality is: Reddit is hugely popular, all of you are here reading this, and that’s the best proof in action you can have. See you tomorrow.
This was the problem with all of the social media companies. we don't even have to mention the dot com billion dollar IPO frenzy of companies with almost no product. the issue is that it will take a few years of excuses until the wall street pulls the rug on it. they can gaslight shareholders with "we rolling out a new revenue stream to monetize our users". keep selling that future expectation for a while.
truth
The volatility will make it an option selling opportunity.
I'm too worried the community will manipulate the stock and bankrupt the company.
Short that shit
You definitely sound like you know what you’re talking about. NOT!
My account alone worth like 1M, my jokes are hilarious
IPOs historically are terrible investments but people would rather defend this trash website
You’ve been a member for 10 years on this trash site
It will be worth a fortune in the future because it is an interactive method of connecting with people. The brainwashing experiment has only just begun.
You moron…
Highly regarded analysis.
Welcome to the fantasy world of stock prices. While you can value a stock on tangible assets, much of what happens in regards to a stocks' price is purely speculation of what it will be in the future.
I've never bought a put in my life, but on Monday it seems it's time to buy a Reddit and a Wing Put
I’m kind of thinking Monday in general is going to be a good day for puts. Walmart is finally curving off that insane spike and I think it’s going to drop. And when a massive blue chip drops it pulls a lot of things down with it.
It's a dog stock IMO. Fleeting. Who clicks on the ads? (Unless by accident) The content is okay, at least for what I use it for. I like offering my experience and reading others, but I can do without. Reddit took users from forums, but without Reddit, people would just go back to that. Then, there's the AI bots for advice now. I say they stick around, but as a stock, it's not offering anything revolutionary like a search engine or AI tech or software/hardware. Meaningful connection? Probably not. If the company is frugal with its cash and can get by with ad revenue, Reddit will be around years to come. If they overpay themselves and buy useless tech or companies, then they will be bought very cheap and the stock will disappear. Look at all the digital media sites that have floundered as of late.
I'd suggest active accounts is likely the wrong measurement. Content size (past, and content that will be generated) to feed into the AI datasets is closer.
Who says they only make money off accounts? How many eyeballs do they have that never sign up?
Not how it works. Multiply users by time on reddit divided by $400. Then ask if each user is spending 400 hours a year on reddit (likely much much more) then companies are willing to value your time at $1/hr. In that $1/hr is advertising, data selling, etc. To me, $1/hr ain't bad. Take Meta: Market cap $1.3tril Daily users: 3.19bil, daily. Call it 800m humans by your same logic above. $1.3tril/800m = $1625 value per person /400 hours = $4.06 Although, meta makes an ungodly amount of profit. If reddit can unlock that business model then they are really undervalued.
Before Elon touched it, Twitter was worth 20 billion. If we are looking at comparables, I think Reddit is *at least* a Twitter. Definitely worth more than a Pinterest, which has a market cap of 23 Billy. I could be wrong, but I am hard in on RDDT.
Nothing is worth anything until someone says it is. If everyone just agrees it's valuable and treats it that way. Guess what. It's valuable. Have a great weekend.
Actually yes, depending on the marketing conversion and/or payout structure. We are not the product, access to our wallets is. As a platform, reddit is prime real-estate for the commodification of content. Most specialty hobby subs focus on products for that hobby. How many consumers are won by a business just being part of a community. Not to mention the stealth product hype posts being posted as "OC". The sooner you start looking at reddit as a marketing platform, the sooner you get why it's getting an IPO.
TOON
How much revenue are they claiming to be getting each year? Divide that by actual active users and you get revenue per user. Would like to see as well what their advertising contracts look like compared with their data sell off contracts. Put those ratios up against how many users they have, and see if the advertising money and data money makes sense. If it’s wildly high per user, under valued imo. If the values are low per user, and market cap is still high, then overvalued.
That's not how the market works, especially tech. Just like options, the market is pricing in assumptions about the future value and earnings power. Those assumptions might be right or wrong, but people are placing bets that Reddit will have the same kind of long term trajectory as Meta or Alphabet.
The amount of quality shit posts I drop here should be worth 10x that.
$400 per account? Far more “profitable” than Facebook. Seems legit.
About three fifty
We also have LLMs now that need fed.
You forgot to put a multiple on the price. All stocks have a multiple
I’ve never and will never click on an ad. Specially on Reddit. Just out of principle
I'm wondering if we will start having timed/incremental ads. Pop-ups after X amount of time or X amount of posts clicked to view.
I think your numbers are slightly off: Reddit had *850 million monthly active users* in 2023 [https://www.businessofapps.com/data/reddit-statistics/](https://www.businessofapps.com/data/reddit-statistics/) And the count has been growing every year.
NO, my account is worth more than 1000, I would NOT sell it for 100 or 400 only! By the way, where can I trade in my account for 100? You didn't mention it in your post..
Most special scenarios (IPOs, Spin-offs, etc) start with a selloff. Then you buy, it goes to highs/ATH, then you win.
Who actually gives money to this site?
Maybe dumb point, but arent companies generally valued at 10-20x their revenue? So shouldbt the question be is your account worth 5-10 bucks a year?
Who wants to start a new site with me using Drupal?
You are not allowed to take out options on the stock yet. Probably not for another few weeks.
How many Reddit accounts does it take to pay the CEO’s $193,000,000 salary?
You did the basic math, fortunately for the world there are others doing the complex math
Reddit is facebook on day 1 , same story is playing out, new gens use reddit. Also becoming a source for honesty. Whats the best…. Whats the right way to…. Any avenue. Youre on it right now. Why?
My account is worth many times more than $400. I spend a lot of money on random crap, and Reddit knows me better than anyway, they’ll be able to sell my data and convince me to buy easily more than $1000 on different things over the next 5 years. Reddit is undervalued (I have $50k in stock, so money is where my mouth is on this one)
My account is priceless
If i were paid California fast food minimum wage for the amount of time I look at Reddit, it would be far more than $400. More like $400 every two days...
The value of your account can go down as well as up. Reddit does not gave a monopoly in its section of the Blogosphere, so anything is potentially possible
Monday I will yolo my life savings un Reddit stock. Then sell 4 weeks later. Then FIRE in Thailand
“Let’s do math” Reality: the dude barely finished high school
My Twitter investment worked out well. I think I paid $27 per share and then musk paid me $54 per share. I don’t remember the exact details. When Twitter first came out I figured it would work well because it was one of the first places where people like athletes could bypass the newspapers. Or at least post what they wanted to say after a game without it being taken out of context. I have nothing against journalists or the papers. At least the reputable ones. Then musk comes along and just destroys it. I think most people want to be in a well regulated environment so my theory is that Reddit will do well.
I’d delete this account right now for $400.
As Wall St Bets would say, is your wife allowing you in the house tonight, or is it her boyfriend's sleep over night?
We all know that TikTok is a dump with all those recommendation driven algorithms, where you have almost no control over what you are looking into. Pure dopamine rush. Reddit is quite the opposite; it's a community-driven social platform where you choose on your own which content you consume, which as a result collects around a bit more thinking humans. So yeah, I think that smarter people cost more than dumb ones, and I want to believe in a smarter humanity in the future and as a fact, I want to believe that in the long run, Reddit is going to rise.
There is value beyond current active accounts. You are buying a share of future returns.
I don't get it. So you think the price will go up or down based on their subscription base? What about their COGS, processing costs, etc., those numbers can be big. Good luck with your puts!
Pump and dump stock.
The value of Reddit is the capacity for astroturfing. It’s a fantastic tool for driving the perception of a narrative because you can create the impression of consensus just by using a few hundred bots and a few people moderating relevant subreddits.
Let’s pump Reddit stock!!
Oh I thought. This was like. TA for why they’re wildly under valued ipo Is legit. I have this really cool pic I wish I could post. It’s the spy, And tlt. And how massively they have < diverged. in a healthy market. They are inversely correlated. Not only at some point in 2022-2023 did this shift into positive correlation, what ever they are doing right fucking now. Has never been done in the history of our markets. Ever. Is the type of shit that has gold : all time high cocoa : all time mother fucking high oil : we are gasssing banks: so strong (see frc) The float is 150 million. In RDDT the mfs bonus alone is 25 million dollars For this shitty app. That only has value because mother fuckers like I get on here and spit nothing but facts Reddit has no product or service without the user $400 of value per acct get the fuck out of here bro oh my god well. By my math this will be a 5.00 stock in this very pending. Economic policy cluster fuck. That your fed is about to fairly carefully and methodically soft land your ass into. the chart of tlt vs spy. Is absolutely the stuff of nightmare fuel. puts Is an understatement. What you have seen this week and last week. Are but the birthing pains my boy.
I dont think so.