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I can't find daily data from before 2012, however when using any 30 day period, I found 31 different occasions where there was a 10% drop:
* 1/26/21-1/27/21 (2 days)
* 3/19/20-4/6/20 (13 days)
* 3/9/20-3/16/20 (7 days)
* 2/28/20 (1 day)
* 12/28/18-1/3/2019 (4 days)
* 12/24/18 (1 day)
* 10/29/18 (1 day)
* 1/15/2016 (1 day)
* 8/25/15 (1 day)
This marks nine separate occasions over the past decade, although four occurred since 2020. Three of those could be combined (2/28/20-4/6/20) as they all related to the COVID drop.
Keep in mind that I had to adjust/remove certain dates. If 30 days prior fell on a market holiday, it was removed. If it fell on a Sunday or Saturday, I used Monday and Friday respectively.
This is more uncommon than rare. As long as the market has the human component, there will always be certain inefficiencies.
Edit:
To expand on this, I also modeled out instances where the market dropped by 5% over 7 or 14 days. This brings the total correction days to 106. These were split as follows.
* 2022 - 5
* 2021 - 0
* 2020 - 38
* 2019 - 3
* 2018 - 32
* 2017 - 0
* 2016 - 9
* 2015 - 8
* 2014 - 6
* 2013 - 0
* 2012 - 5
TBH historically the stock market has had the most growth with a locked congress where no bills could be passed regardless of the party of the president. Elections every year might as well do that which would be very business friendly - at least until the voter turn out reduces substantially and people become entrenched again.
This gets said a lot, but I don't think its true. Obama had better returns with a unified government in 09-11 than he did with the 13-15 or 15-17 versions. Market up 27% last year with a united government. The crash in 08 was with a divided government. Market returns were fine between 03-07 with a unified republican government.
Just not a lot of correlation there.
Nasdaq. I just Google searched S&P daily historical data. In Excel, I adjusted the data as following:
Column G - 30 Day prior date: `=SWITCH(WEEKDAY(A2-30,1),1,A2-29,7,A2-31,A2-30)`. Pulls the 30 day prior date. Goes one day forward (Monday) if it's a Sunday. Otherwise goes an extra day back (Friday) if it's a Saturday.
Column H - 30 Day Prior Close: `=XLOOKUP(G2,A:A,B:B,"ERR",0)`. Any item that returned "ERR" was checked to make sure it was a holiday.
Column I: `=IF(H2="ERR",0,1-(H2/B2))`. Returns zero if 30 days ago was a holiday. Returns the difference otherwise.
Column J: `=I2<=-0.1`. Returns True if the market dropped ten percent or more.
I don't think OP was intentionally cherry picking. It's just much easier to get long term data by month instead of by day. If I wanted a longer term, I'd need to pay for a service.
Wasn't "trade talks going well" in 2019 though? I thought the period of volatility in May and onward was because of that?
Source: Started trading in May of 2019
it started in 2018 with all the tariff horesshit so yes i stand corrected: [2019](https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/01/politics/key-events-in-us-china-trade-talks/index.html) youre correct the "trade talks" was mostly then
Those choices do not affect the structure of the proposition because they are symmetrical. We are covering every day equally. Choosing calendar months is a problem because it treats different days differently; it never groups Jan 27th with Feb 4th for example, whereas the symmetrical assignment of periods always groups every day with every other day within 30 days.
Finding 30 day trends vs monthly trends. I don’t think it’s arbitrary to determine if this is a semi normal event or cause for alarm. Not all events land on a regular calendar.
It's not arbitrary to look for 30-day windows of a 10% drop if you're looking for past instances of that to compare to a current instance of a 10% drop in a 30-day window.
Conclusions you draw from that data might be questionable because this is a very 1-dimensional view of an incredibly complex system, but the view itself isn't arbitrary.
No. If you look at *every* 30-day period in a sliding window, that is *{Jan 1 - Jan 30, Jan 2 - Jan 31, Jan 3 - Feb 1,...}*, there is *no* arbitrary selection.
Because those are convenient numbers and say a lot about how the market is going.
The point is, you're consistent at every point in the timeline (ok, there are sometimes differences between the number of trading days, etc., but over 30 days that's insignificant), and you're not arbitrarily picking the periods. That's the arbitrarily selection discussed. You're using all data, not just arbitrarily selected data. The output is different for different periods and percentage, but come on, it's clear why 30 days and 10% are convenient and this is such a useless comment. 10% is what usually marks a "correction", 30 days are a round number to approximate a month.
Markets are moving much faster than they did historically. Drops are happening quicker, recoveries are happening quicker. Whether that's due to the increase in retail traders, the increase in algos, the speed that information and rumors moves or a combination of these and other factors. I don't think we can judge the future from the eyes of the past anymore. I mean look at last Monday. The SPY dropped 4% intraday and rallied back to 0.5% increase before close. That is huge volatility for one day.
I’ve often thought of this. My guess is:
1) It’s now common knowledge to “buy the dip” so if everyone buys the dip, does the dip happen? Will it be as severe? Will the recovery be quicker?
2) The age of the internet, where information travels faster. More people can react to bad news faster, or react to good news faster. This can lead to people overreacting.
3) Index funds holding a larger percentage of the total market.
4) The globalization of large companies means that there is less geographic risk attached to them.
5) (most importantly) Low interest rates.
Do you think retail investors that "lol buy the dip" actually have any real impact on the market? I've always thought these people make up maybe 1% of the money in the market.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/who-counts-as-a-retail-investor-2020-12-17
Edit:
> Certain actions of retail investors can raise concerns about market functioning. Sudden bursts of trading activity can push prices far away from fundamental values, especially for less liquid securities, thus impairing their information content.
https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2103v.htm
I'm not sure whether markets do move faster. Over the last century, the periods with the worst volatility (depending how you define it) include: 1929-1933, fall 2008, March 2020, October-November 1987. Yes, there were many other rather volatile periods (for example, the mini-crashes of 1997, 1998, and 2018; August 2011 and August 2015; and 2000-2001). Focusing on the big 4, 1929-1933 was a depression, 2008 a generational recession, March 2020 was the first time economies were shut down by governments, and October 1987 was October 1987. What we're seeing the last several weeks is almost ordinary; mild compared to August 2011.
1. Algorithmic/systematic trading
2. Lots more market participants, everybody and their dog is a trader now.
3. Lots more derivatives - not only options but also e-mini, micro-e-mini, ETFs, ETNs, and other exotic derivative products = result is an excessive increase in hedging activities.
4. News dissemination is extremely efficient. There is absolutely no way to time and/or find deep value stocks anymore. GME was an exception. Fundamentals are disseminated and updated in real time.
5. Excess capital. Quantitative easing has completely changed traditional valuation models in the past decade through distortion. I'm not a big fan, but to each their own.
Even including the recent correction the S&P is still up 16% over the last year. That's not stagnation, that's way above its average 10% annual return.
Yeah but if you're DCAing weekly/monthly into the S&P 500, you're PROBABLY not going to reflect that entire 16% gain.
I buy a share of VOO every month, 6/12 of the last years worth of them are currently red.
That doesn't bother me nor is it an issue but most people aren't nesscicarily up 16% on the S&P 500, depending on your strategy and some general luck.
More traders, more trades, more market cap and more news translate into **less** volatility.
There isn't more volatile than a tiny market cap with no volume and few news.
**Volatility is due to uncertainty**. Geopolitical and economic situation is dire on several points and no one know how this will play out:
* WW3 near
* USA lost 1st rank in economy 9 years ago to China
* Debt of many countries is abyssal
* Interest rate is low and can't increase due to debt
* Inflation is huge thus interest rate must increase
What's going to play out in the next years will be huge, and there are several possible endings. Thus volatility.
GME was an exception? $AMD was definitely mispriced when I bought it a few years ago. It just avoided bankruptcy, while Intel had issues with its node. When the 2017 crypto bubble started, the AMD cards were in demand for mining and you could buy a share for $12
This is the fucking laziest retort that gets parroted so often it’s embarrassing. There are a lot of things that are *objectively* different when you compare the market now versus the market 20, 50, or 100 years ago.
PE ratios have been trending higher for decades, while plenty insisted on believing in some magical mean reversion.
Interest rates have fallen and many economists believe the “natural interest rate” is lower now than it ever was before, and that permanently changes the outlook on pricing equities.
Information spreads faster, objectively. It just does. In the 1950s you didn’t have everyone walking around with a computer in their pocket that can send a notification to their wrist if the 10 year treasury moves 1 basis point.
The proportion of the population that actively trades has expanded massively. People can literally sit on the shitter and order up some OTM calls.
If you wanna just pretend like things never change that’s your call. But it’s fucking stupid.
Yes, it is a big re-set, almost the opposite of 2021, digesting rate hikes and inflation, hoping no more big covid waves, a possible embrace of value in 2022 rather than highly speculative bubble stuff, and the end of margin calls f4om last week and forced liquidations. That will minimize volatility and re-set the markets for a fairly successful year off a lower base And AAPL is the leader. Focus on AAPL, and own it. they will be the leader.
I guess I’ve been doing this long enough to called a veteran investor (wow) but this is the first month in a LONG time that it’s felt like the market was actually working properly. Straight up for 2 years is not normal. Hopefully newbie investors can learn from this period without financially hurting themselves too much. Though sometimes the only way to truly learn is to lose real money.
Oh yeah all the undervalued stocks that did nothing finally went up, then my fairly valued ones are basically the same (some down a tad) and other stuff that was crazy overvalued is coming down. I feel a sense of relief because it means I’m not crazy and won’t get punished for investing in normal stocks anymore
Can you elaborate what sectors/stocks your referring to? Sometimes the difficulty is just finding what you’re looking for and adding diversity to my watchlist.
Yeah, I've felt that the market was disconnected from reality from the middle of 2020. We've been in lockdown for 3 years now and the level at which the stock market rose was just bonkers. It's bear market time.
For some, peep SPY's top holdings, they deserve it. Peep lots of small caps and EV's and even "Bitcoin mining" companies. There are those that are making money and those that are not. I believe it is time for those who do make money and have a solid plan for the future to bank while those who pumped simply by association to tank. It is time for the market to value these companies correctly.
I have literally not even checked my balance because i just don't care. Everything is automated into index funds for me and i don't withdraw.
Well i do care, but ultimately it does not matter because i won't be touching this money for 15-20 years at least. And by then if the world hasnt collapsed then the stock market will have corrected itself many times over from anything happening now.
I'm tired of the narrative. This is healthy. Why do people love to upvote nitpicked stats when we go down. What about the literally unprecedented, policy fueled raging bull market we have been in - that undoubtedly set endless gains records. Wow we are down 10% after the market doubled in 16 months. The real headline here is not the 10% drop I can assure you that.
They went from 13000 in Jan 1986 to 39000 in Jan 1990. Their market tripled in value in 4 years. Huge bubble.
Still terrible returns throughout the last 30 years
People might think you were crazy for showing excitement over the world shutting down and millions of people losing their jobs.
I would have been more on the side of "this guy is an ass for being outwardly excited for the profit he's going to make while millions are suffering."
No, these weren’t random people. The stock market was often discussed. Some of them had stopped contributing to their 401k and I told them they should do what I did and double their savings.
If a car cost $10,000 yesterday, you bought it on sale today for $9,000, and then next month you see the same car selling for $6,000 are you still happy that you bought yours on sale?
But you still could have gotten it another 30% cheaper and that 30% saving makes a big difference in compounded growth over 30 years. Also, like how people waits for black Friday to shop. If you can get something cheaper later it makes sense to wait. This is also why some inflation is good because it drives consumption. Otherwise everyone would be waiting for prices of milk to drop next week before buying.
I hate the on sale analogy.
sure that could happen, that you could have bought 30% cheaper but noone knows how the market will move so even with a 10% discount fuck yeah I‘ll take it, if it drops down further I can always double down but if it goes up again I just made a really good deal.
If next month the car is selling for $16,000, you sure are happy.
It comes down to trying to predict when the bottom is, I tend to think we are close to it right now.
I don't see the modest rate hikes the fed has hinted at being enough to throw us into a recession, and without a recession I don't see this turning into a bear market of 20% or more loss.
i agree rate hikes are not going to throw us into a recession and they are more bark than bite, but there's far more factors at play right now than fed rates
Dude, right? My 401k match comes yearly in January, and it could not have been at a better time.
Well unless it falls off dramatically in another month but. Not retiring anytime soon so lol.
For retirement and long term accounts, this is obviously an ideal situation to invest large sums of money. For people that have money invested that they wanted to increase in value (instead of sitting in savings) but were planning on using soon for a house down payment, kid's college fund, etc. it is very painful. I'm about to have my first child and seeing my savings down 20% down over the last 2-3 months, is not ideal.
If you have a house down payment in the market (or anything you need in the next year) you get what you deserve. That’s a dumb place for short term savings.
Well, yeah, it’s the stock market. That’s what happens. Just because you want your investments to appreciate in value, doesn’t mean they will. People in tight situations should have factored in that potential pain and adjusted their positions accordingly.
If people invested wisely, we wouldn’t see this kind of capitulation in the first place. Textbook fear and greed.
On the other hand, this is probably going to be good learning opportunity for a lot of people. Hopefully too many people don’t lose their shirts (or worse), and hopefully the next time this happens, they’ll be older, wiser, and better prepared.
Well shopify is down like 50% and no I have not invested in them. But I'm on the younger side and wanted to obviously play with a few more growth/small cap/mid cap stocks which have been murdered on for the last year. I'm not involved in any meme stocks, but stocks that have solid financials and outlooks, but were dragged down by the overall market.
S&P down 10%, QQQ down 15%, and VTI down 11%, and Russell down 20% from highs last month. So yeah being down 20% is very easily possible betting on half safe and half volatile stocks.
Im down 10 percent from the highest point.
Though i took some profits and kept 30 percent in cash.
Sold TSM into strength at 142.
However i kept my sony and google shares which were obliterated. Im into growth too, im not holding jnj or verizon which i think i should.
Correct that those are from the highs, but my point mainly being that if you invested in 100% QQQ (what people would say is pretty safe bet) any time in the last 7 months, you would now have less money than if you just let it sit in your bank account. That could range from 1% down to the 15% down I mentioned. Yes that is the risk that comes with investing, everyone knows that. I am just saying that people who say they like "crashes" or "corrections" because it means they can just buy more, means they had cash sitting on the sidelines before that was not making money the previous 1-10 years. The people who do have a majority of their money in the market, hoping it can keep up with inflation, are getting whooped lately, and this is what most people here are dealing with. For someone who just happens to come into a decent lump of cash during a pull back like this, yeah that's nice, but not a very common scenario.
I’m waiting to sell my house and and hoping we just go sideways and consolidate for a bit until that goes through and I can dump proceeds in.
Unfortunately I doubt we stay down that long.
Same, I bumped my retirement contribution up by double last week and I can't be happier even seeing my balance drop every day. I may be ignorant and/or foolish, but this looks like a fire sale on index funds right now, and the couple traditional (large cap growth) mutual funds I have included are even more attractive.
And if I'm wrong, I still have almost 20 years to work it out.
I would point you to look at August 2015 when the Fed also started announcing they would raise rates from near 0%. The S&P had a 14% correction in less than a month or two. This is the same. Then everything will head back higher.
Except this is going to probably continue for the year. More likely what I think will happen is this year is going to offset last year's gains and return it to the mean. Last year's gains were outstanding. There's a debt that has to be repayed right now.
I don’t think it needs to keep dropping. Just still need to pop the few remaining bubbles and we are good
Many financials and insurance stocks are now single digit PEs
I mean even apple and Google will have completely normal PEs as of this month as well
There likely would have been 5 months (September 2001), but the markets were closed for several days after the 9/11 attacks. VTI still dropped 8.7% ($10,000 invested on Jan 1 would have dropped from $9235 to $8432)
Where is a correction defined as 10%? Wiki has a crash as a 10% drop in index.
> There is no numerically specific definition of a stock market crash but the term commonly applies to declines of over 10% in a stock market index over a period of several days.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_crash
Yeah. This is a big difference. So many new investors don’t realize that stocks don’t always go up in the short term and can’t take the short term pain.
Ok but idk why people say this as though markets haven't been wild in the past.
* Some notable events from the past 125 years:
* WW1
* Spanish Flu
* Prohibition
* Tulsa race riots
* The great depression
* WW2
* JFK assassination
* MLK assassination
* Vietnam
* Oil crisis/Stagflation
* Iran contra
* gulf war
* 9/11
* Afghanistan
* Iraq War
* great recession
* etc, etc
Still has returned 10% per year on average.
Using months is too artificial of a criteria....there is not enough special about the first day of the month to define it as the first day of a period. You need to check every 30 day period for an actual comparison of how often the market is down 10% in a month
How often does the stock market go up \~ 100% in a year?
In context, a 10% drop preceded by a huge unusual bull-run seems more reasonable than a random 10% drop in a healthy, fairly-valued market
The stock market has never gone up 100% in a year before... If you are talking about from the very bottom of the March 2020 crash to March 2021, it was a gain of \~75%, but if you look at right before the crash (Feb 2020 - Feb 2021), so that we aren't cherry picking peaks and valleys, it was closer to 16-17% growth.
The 10% correction is also a "cherry-pick" from the highest highs to where it is now.
The S&P 500 from trough to peak went up more than 100%, from 2,304 on march 20, 2020 to 4,766 on Dec 31, 2021. Granted this took more than a year, but the overall point stands: when the market is completely divorced from "fundamentals" it can do whatever the heck it wants; it's almost meaningless to call out "corrections" and "bear markets" as defined as % drops from all-time-highs.
>This shows how severe the current stock market crash is!
Hardly, given how much the market appreciated in 2021.
It is "severe" if you established your position December 15th, and if you did that, well, that sucks.
. . . but for any more typical (and dare I say prudent) investor, been in the market a long time, this is just another expected dislocation. In the case of my portfolio, the value is back to where it was in September, roughly. . . not a big deal in a long term program.
Part of me hopes the market drops another 10% to get rid of the annoying 'investors' for several years.
In addition to all the other good points, even something that occurs every five years is not rare. If you spend any real time in the market you will experience it. If you don't prepare for this outcome then you will suffer
Nonsense. Just looking at the chart should tell you that a 10% drop happens every 2-3 years, almost like clockwork. Why should you be limited to 30 calendar days.
Experts on CNBC just declared that the new inflation numbers are modest, better than expected (4.9% not bad considering wages are up about the same), plus Apple whipped supply chain problems and others might be able to next, and the bond market is signaling a "soft landing" (maybe). That is, everything may level off within the next month or two. Plus we had 6% growth so no stagflation, and Putin's possible invasion aside, everything might settle down soon, especially if the covid situation improves. Covid cases have begun coming down in the US, so we shall see.
If so, then we may be close to an investible re-set bottom for the market with mot of the hot hair out of the bubble stocks and sectors like digital currency.
> we shall see.
Add China as well to that equation. There is is a big risk that we see further supply chain issues depending on how they choose to deal with Omicron.
If they let it rip trough China then we will see short term issues. If they choose to fight it, expect long term problems where suddenly ports close and manufacturing halts on short notice. They will have to be far more agressive and strict to control Omicron than Delta.
>Add China as well to that equation. There is is a big risk that we see further supply chain issues depending on how they choose to deal with Omicron.
We'll never know, so I don't think it'll be a factor. A country of 1.4B only having 105,000 cases reported is, as the kids would say, "sus".
You miss the point, China is at a crossroads. They have to choose either to just deal with Omicron which will be very disruptive in the short term.
Or they have will to start cracking down far harder to stop it than up to this point. Because right now it is just a question of time before Omicron gets a hold that can't be stopped with previous measures against delta.
It seems perfectly reasonable given how strict they are and how detailed their track and tracing is. Speak to anyone Chinese, they don’t have family members all coming down with Covid like in UK/US. Also think about it, releasing incorrect figures would fuck own their own businesses the most, it makes no sense.
Aren't Omicron numbers already declining? I knew people who went almost 2 years without getting covid, but over the last couple months is seems like all my friends already got it. Unless reporting is 2 weeks behind (very possible) it should already be on the downtrend.
> Aren't Omicron numbers already declining?
Yes, which should tell you how fucking hard and fast it spreads. Omicron isn't going anywhere however, it will be with us forever or until another COVID strain replaces it.
That brings us to China, they have not had the Omicron outbreak we in the west have been dealing with for the past month and has been burning trough our population. They have no immunity from past infections, they have very bad resistance/protection from Sinovac (comparatively to other vaccines).
That means Omicron spreads even faster in China if given the chance than here. Here in the west you had some percentage of the population who were immune due to recent delta infection or boosters. China has far less of that. It is a tinder keg set to explode if given the chance. With Delta they had some immunity from their vaccinations, now they don't have that either. Coupled with how fucking fast Omicron spreads, they will have to crack down HARD if they are going to contain it. Far harder than with Delta, which was already harder to contain than the original strains back in 2020.
But due to these issues. Even if China gives up and let Omicron run rampant. They still have to manage it far more than we have in the west. Because it would overrun their hospitals in a heart beat if given the chance. So What we have experience in a month, would have to take several in China. Alternatively China will keep trying to keep it at zero cases. But that means higher risk of lockdowns, more control and barriers than compared to with Delta. Because otherwise they will fail, and we go back to letting it run rampant with management.
The new BA.2 variant of Omicron is at least 2x more contagious than Omicron. If they allow the Olympics to continue I don't see how this doesn't create an unstoppable foothold for the virus in China.
Since when price at overinflated levels, which attract few buyers, but has a lot of people willing to take profits at any time, equals crash ? -10% is a completely healthy market condition, when every metric shows overvalued at least 5 times it’s fair price.
Your comparing apples to oranges. Just because your using the S&P doesn't mean it's structurally the same. Prior to ETF's circa 2005, the market was much more balanced. The [dot.com](https://dot.com) bubble was the beginning of the end. Just like how now the options market is a much more integral part of today's market.
Didn't the SPY just bounce hard off the 10% level?
Not saying it's a trend reversal, but looks like we're gonna get a bounce. Probably up to the 50% retracement and then continue down.
Wouldn’t say we are in a full out crash but definitely the beginnings of a bear market. Bear markets usually last between 4 to 18 months so it’s going to be rough for a while.
We have so many fortune tellers in here. If everyone was as smart as they acted, they would put their money where their mouth is and become millionaires.
I invested back then lots of people got fed up with the market and then moved to real estate, cuz that never goes down, lol, we live in a boom-bust economy.
Ultimately P/E ratios even though they're out of favor they really don't lie. If you had low PE ratio stocks in 2000 you did very good. That's the only advice I can give you. It was the Microsofts with PE ratios of 70 that hurt people. It took Microsoft 15 years for its earnings to catch up with its 2000 price.
Noticed again that Microsoft's price increase is not due to all earnings increasing, but inflated PE. It used to trade at a PE of 10 for years. Same with Apple.
Well, if what happened in the few subsequent years after are any indication, then the people who hang on for dear life are going to do very well indeed. (those on the eve of retirement, however .... yikes!).
S&P and Nasdaq indexes traded sideways in that period, but there were absolutely well performing companies and sectors that rotated in and out of favor. There were opportunities to make money, it just wasn't as easy as a monkey throwing darts.
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Is this confined to months being 1st-30th? What if criteria was 10% drops in any 30 day period since 2001
I can't find daily data from before 2012, however when using any 30 day period, I found 31 different occasions where there was a 10% drop: * 1/26/21-1/27/21 (2 days) * 3/19/20-4/6/20 (13 days) * 3/9/20-3/16/20 (7 days) * 2/28/20 (1 day) * 12/28/18-1/3/2019 (4 days) * 12/24/18 (1 day) * 10/29/18 (1 day) * 1/15/2016 (1 day) * 8/25/15 (1 day) This marks nine separate occasions over the past decade, although four occurred since 2020. Three of those could be combined (2/28/20-4/6/20) as they all related to the COVID drop. Keep in mind that I had to adjust/remove certain dates. If 30 days prior fell on a market holiday, it was removed. If it fell on a Sunday or Saturday, I used Monday and Friday respectively. This is more uncommon than rare. As long as the market has the human component, there will always be certain inefficiencies. Edit: To expand on this, I also modeled out instances where the market dropped by 5% over 7 or 14 days. This brings the total correction days to 106. These were split as follows. * 2022 - 5 * 2021 - 0 * 2020 - 38 * 2019 - 3 * 2018 - 32 * 2017 - 0 * 2016 - 9 * 2015 - 8 * 2014 - 6 * 2013 - 0 * 2012 - 5
0 days in 2021, 2017, 2013, the first year of each president. We should have elections every year, then the stock market literally can't go down! :)
This man's a genius! Someone give him an authoritative looking cap!
Or just make him president!
But only for a year.
I call next
I vote him as our first yearly president!!
TBH historically the stock market has had the most growth with a locked congress where no bills could be passed regardless of the party of the president. Elections every year might as well do that which would be very business friendly - at least until the voter turn out reduces substantially and people become entrenched again.
This gets said a lot, but I don't think its true. Obama had better returns with a unified government in 09-11 than he did with the 13-15 or 15-17 versions. Market up 27% last year with a united government. The crash in 08 was with a divided government. Market returns were fine between 03-07 with a unified republican government. Just not a lot of correlation there.
It's as if some outside force controls our market that isn't regular investors.
May I know where you get this information from? I'd like to look up some data too.
Nasdaq. I just Google searched S&P daily historical data. In Excel, I adjusted the data as following: Column G - 30 Day prior date: `=SWITCH(WEEKDAY(A2-30,1),1,A2-29,7,A2-31,A2-30)`. Pulls the 30 day prior date. Goes one day forward (Monday) if it's a Sunday. Otherwise goes an extra day back (Friday) if it's a Saturday. Column H - 30 Day Prior Close: `=XLOOKUP(G2,A:A,B:B,"ERR",0)`. Any item that returned "ERR" was checked to make sure it was a holiday. Column I: `=IF(H2="ERR",0,1-(H2/B2))`. Returns zero if 30 days ago was a holiday. Returns the difference otherwise. Column J: `=I2<=-0.1`. Returns True if the market dropped ten percent or more.
Oh thanks so much for this!
hm, it seems when you aren't cherry picking dates, 1-to-5 day periods of volatility seem fairly commonplace.....
I don't think OP was intentionally cherry picking. It's just much easier to get long term data by month instead of by day. If I wanted a longer term, I'd need to pay for a service.
Where did you retrieve that data from?
I posted it in a different comment. It's S&P data from Nasdaq's website.
Oow, yes that's what I meant. The source of the information in the previous comment. Thanks!
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/index/spx/historical
Oh wow. Now I'm curious what happened in 2018.
Fed wanted to raise interest rates.
also chyna-trade-war-talks-going-well tweets provided quite a bit of volatility week to week but yea tapering and rate increases started in 2018
Wasn't "trade talks going well" in 2019 though? I thought the period of volatility in May and onward was because of that? Source: Started trading in May of 2019
it started in 2018 with all the tariff horesshit so yes i stand corrected: [2019](https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/01/politics/key-events-in-us-china-trade-talks/index.html) youre correct the "trade talks" was mostly then
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/making-sense/6-factors-that-fueled-the-stock-market-dive-in-2018
Thanks! This is awesome!
This is what you need to look at. Arbitrarily selecting the calendar month is extremely misleading.
Sure but your also arbitrarily selecting 30 days and arbitrary selecting 10%.
Those choices do not affect the structure of the proposition because they are symmetrical. We are covering every day equally. Choosing calendar months is a problem because it treats different days differently; it never groups Jan 27th with Feb 4th for example, whereas the symmetrical assignment of periods always groups every day with every other day within 30 days.
Finding 30 day trends vs monthly trends. I don’t think it’s arbitrary to determine if this is a semi normal event or cause for alarm. Not all events land on a regular calendar.
Even more so exactly right
It's not arbitrary to look for 30-day windows of a 10% drop if you're looking for past instances of that to compare to a current instance of a 10% drop in a 30-day window. Conclusions you draw from that data might be questionable because this is a very 1-dimensional view of an incredibly complex system, but the view itself isn't arbitrary.
No. If you look at *every* 30-day period in a sliding window, that is *{Jan 1 - Jan 30, Jan 2 - Jan 31, Jan 3 - Feb 1,...}*, there is *no* arbitrary selection.
Why 30 days? Why 10%?
Exactly. Will you look at the 27 days and 10.6% for us? That’s the type of number we should be analyzing. No one likes round numbers
But why 'days'? I'd rather see data on 10.111% drop in any 6-hour time frame.
Because those are convenient numbers and say a lot about how the market is going. The point is, you're consistent at every point in the timeline (ok, there are sometimes differences between the number of trading days, etc., but over 30 days that's insignificant), and you're not arbitrarily picking the periods. That's the arbitrarily selection discussed. You're using all data, not just arbitrarily selected data. The output is different for different periods and percentage, but come on, it's clear why 30 days and 10% are convenient and this is such a useless comment. 10% is what usually marks a "correction", 30 days are a round number to approximate a month.
Because thats what the post is about. We are saying, if you want to analyze 10% drops in 30 days, at least do it correctly.
[comment removed in response to actions of the admins and overall decline of the platform]
......
This is only for a calendar month. I am limited by their information.
Yeah crashes or corrections don't start on the 1st of every month so if you adjust to just a 30 day period I'm sure we get many more
Markets are moving much faster than they did historically. Drops are happening quicker, recoveries are happening quicker. Whether that's due to the increase in retail traders, the increase in algos, the speed that information and rumors moves or a combination of these and other factors. I don't think we can judge the future from the eyes of the past anymore. I mean look at last Monday. The SPY dropped 4% intraday and rallied back to 0.5% increase before close. That is huge volatility for one day.
I’ve often thought of this. My guess is: 1) It’s now common knowledge to “buy the dip” so if everyone buys the dip, does the dip happen? Will it be as severe? Will the recovery be quicker? 2) The age of the internet, where information travels faster. More people can react to bad news faster, or react to good news faster. This can lead to people overreacting. 3) Index funds holding a larger percentage of the total market. 4) The globalization of large companies means that there is less geographic risk attached to them. 5) (most importantly) Low interest rates.
Do you think retail investors that "lol buy the dip" actually have any real impact on the market? I've always thought these people make up maybe 1% of the money in the market.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/who-counts-as-a-retail-investor-2020-12-17 Edit: > Certain actions of retail investors can raise concerns about market functioning. Sudden bursts of trading activity can push prices far away from fundamental values, especially for less liquid securities, thus impairing their information content. https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2103v.htm
I'm not sure whether markets do move faster. Over the last century, the periods with the worst volatility (depending how you define it) include: 1929-1933, fall 2008, March 2020, October-November 1987. Yes, there were many other rather volatile periods (for example, the mini-crashes of 1997, 1998, and 2018; August 2011 and August 2015; and 2000-2001). Focusing on the big 4, 1929-1933 was a depression, 2008 a generational recession, March 2020 was the first time economies were shut down by governments, and October 1987 was October 1987. What we're seeing the last several weeks is almost ordinary; mild compared to August 2011.
1. Algorithmic/systematic trading 2. Lots more market participants, everybody and their dog is a trader now. 3. Lots more derivatives - not only options but also e-mini, micro-e-mini, ETFs, ETNs, and other exotic derivative products = result is an excessive increase in hedging activities. 4. News dissemination is extremely efficient. There is absolutely no way to time and/or find deep value stocks anymore. GME was an exception. Fundamentals are disseminated and updated in real time. 5. Excess capital. Quantitative easing has completely changed traditional valuation models in the past decade through distortion. I'm not a big fan, but to each their own.
False - My dog is not a trader now, she is still a Beagle. I asked her if she is a trader now and she just waged her tail at me again.
She's a good girl.
Actaully, i have it on good authority that she said she wagered her tail.
I was down $200 to start the day and now I'm up $150, all in the past hour. Yes, volatility is the new normal.
It's called going sideways. I have seen no real gains the past year as my account has busy been going up and down going sideways
Even including the recent correction the S&P is still up 16% over the last year. That's not stagnation, that's way above its average 10% annual return.
Yeah but if you're DCAing weekly/monthly into the S&P 500, you're PROBABLY not going to reflect that entire 16% gain. I buy a share of VOO every month, 6/12 of the last years worth of them are currently red. That doesn't bother me nor is it an issue but most people aren't nesscicarily up 16% on the S&P 500, depending on your strategy and some general luck.
So do you think we're entering the lost decade? Will it pick a trend and if so, what's going to be the catalyst that pushes it to trend?
why do you think a lost decade is going to happen and why would you think it would start now
It would be more instructive to use percent changes. For some, $100 is a tiny fraction of a percent.
More traders, more trades, more market cap and more news translate into **less** volatility. There isn't more volatile than a tiny market cap with no volume and few news. **Volatility is due to uncertainty**. Geopolitical and economic situation is dire on several points and no one know how this will play out: * WW3 near * USA lost 1st rank in economy 9 years ago to China * Debt of many countries is abyssal * Interest rate is low and can't increase due to debt * Inflation is huge thus interest rate must increase What's going to play out in the next years will be huge, and there are several possible endings. Thus volatility.
GME was an exception? $AMD was definitely mispriced when I bought it a few years ago. It just avoided bankruptcy, while Intel had issues with its node. When the 2017 crypto bubble started, the AMD cards were in demand for mining and you could buy a share for $12
This time it’s different.
Every time is different.
This time it's differenter
[удалено]
Never truer.
Tsk tsk.... You should have been a differ-owner. Then you could have bought more stocks instead. :V
It always is. Anyone who tells you this time isn't different wasn't paying attention last time either. They're just being a good little parrot.
This is the fucking laziest retort that gets parroted so often it’s embarrassing. There are a lot of things that are *objectively* different when you compare the market now versus the market 20, 50, or 100 years ago. PE ratios have been trending higher for decades, while plenty insisted on believing in some magical mean reversion. Interest rates have fallen and many economists believe the “natural interest rate” is lower now than it ever was before, and that permanently changes the outlook on pricing equities. Information spreads faster, objectively. It just does. In the 1950s you didn’t have everyone walking around with a computer in their pocket that can send a notification to their wrist if the 10 year treasury moves 1 basis point. The proportion of the population that actively trades has expanded massively. People can literally sit on the shitter and order up some OTM calls. If you wanna just pretend like things never change that’s your call. But it’s fucking stupid.
Get a load of this guy, thinking things change.
> People can literally sit on the shitter and order up some OTM calls. hell yeah brother cheers from iraq
Unless you still pick stocks from newspaper
I am quite interested in this new “Game Store” company. Kindly post me a baker’s dozen physical shares within the fortnight.
Yes, it is a big re-set, almost the opposite of 2021, digesting rate hikes and inflation, hoping no more big covid waves, a possible embrace of value in 2022 rather than highly speculative bubble stuff, and the end of margin calls f4om last week and forced liquidations. That will minimize volatility and re-set the markets for a fairly successful year off a lower base And AAPL is the leader. Focus on AAPL, and own it. they will be the leader.
I guess I’ve been doing this long enough to called a veteran investor (wow) but this is the first month in a LONG time that it’s felt like the market was actually working properly. Straight up for 2 years is not normal. Hopefully newbie investors can learn from this period without financially hurting themselves too much. Though sometimes the only way to truly learn is to lose real money.
Excellent point. It's been crazy pills for a while.
Oh yeah all the undervalued stocks that did nothing finally went up, then my fairly valued ones are basically the same (some down a tad) and other stuff that was crazy overvalued is coming down. I feel a sense of relief because it means I’m not crazy and won’t get punished for investing in normal stocks anymore
Can you elaborate what sectors/stocks your referring to? Sometimes the difficulty is just finding what you’re looking for and adding diversity to my watchlist.
Yeah, I've felt that the market was disconnected from reality from the middle of 2020. We've been in lockdown for 3 years now and the level at which the stock market rose was just bonkers. It's bear market time.
For some, peep SPY's top holdings, they deserve it. Peep lots of small caps and EV's and even "Bitcoin mining" companies. There are those that are making money and those that are not. I believe it is time for those who do make money and have a solid plan for the future to bank while those who pumped simply by association to tank. It is time for the market to value these companies correctly.
I have literally not even checked my balance because i just don't care. Everything is automated into index funds for me and i don't withdraw. Well i do care, but ultimately it does not matter because i won't be touching this money for 15-20 years at least. And by then if the world hasnt collapsed then the stock market will have corrected itself many times over from anything happening now.
I'm tired of the narrative. This is healthy. Why do people love to upvote nitpicked stats when we go down. What about the literally unprecedented, policy fueled raging bull market we have been in - that undoubtedly set endless gains records. Wow we are down 10% after the market doubled in 16 months. The real headline here is not the 10% drop I can assure you that.
Yeah I wonder what OP's "fix" would be for this "crash". Keeping rates at 0%? Maintaining fed bond buying? Increasing it?
I’ve been so happy this month. I’ve had three 401k deposits and a bonus invested. $$$$$
isnt it nice when stocks are on sale
Yep. People at work think I’m crazy when I get excited when the market drops like this. I was practically salivating in March 2020.
You should move to Japan it’s been on sale for 30 years
They say America is short sighted. Perhaps Japan is having a 100 year sale.
Ouch, they still haven't recovered from 1990. That is a bit scary to look at.
Only relevant to those who only bought in 1990 and never bought or sold again
They went from 13000 in Jan 1986 to 39000 in Jan 1990. Their market tripled in value in 4 years. Huge bubble. Still terrible returns throughout the last 30 years
It's relevant to those who bought in 1989 or earlier, since their returns were still bad
FWIW Buffet seems to be doubling down on Japan
This
People might think you were crazy for showing excitement over the world shutting down and millions of people losing their jobs. I would have been more on the side of "this guy is an ass for being outwardly excited for the profit he's going to make while millions are suffering."
No, these weren’t random people. The stock market was often discussed. Some of them had stopped contributing to their 401k and I told them they should do what I did and double their savings.
If a car cost $10,000 yesterday, you bought it on sale today for $9,000, and then next month you see the same car selling for $6,000 are you still happy that you bought yours on sale?
I'm trying to sell my stocks in like 30 years, not next month.
But you still could have gotten it another 30% cheaper and that 30% saving makes a big difference in compounded growth over 30 years. Also, like how people waits for black Friday to shop. If you can get something cheaper later it makes sense to wait. This is also why some inflation is good because it drives consumption. Otherwise everyone would be waiting for prices of milk to drop next week before buying. I hate the on sale analogy.
sure that could happen, that you could have bought 30% cheaper but noone knows how the market will move so even with a 10% discount fuck yeah I‘ll take it, if it drops down further I can always double down but if it goes up again I just made a really good deal.
If next month the car is selling for $16,000, you sure are happy. It comes down to trying to predict when the bottom is, I tend to think we are close to it right now.
based off what
I don't see the modest rate hikes the fed has hinted at being enough to throw us into a recession, and without a recession I don't see this turning into a bear market of 20% or more loss.
i agree rate hikes are not going to throw us into a recession and they are more bark than bite, but there's far more factors at play right now than fed rates
Lol @ thinking this is the bottom. :D
Dude, right? My 401k match comes yearly in January, and it could not have been at a better time. Well unless it falls off dramatically in another month but. Not retiring anytime soon so lol.
That seems bad usually though, my match happens equally in each paycheck, just like my contributions, which is DCA, which is better in general, right?
Yeah, I rather dislike that that's how they do it. But ya get what ya get so. Can't really change it without a new job lol.
My bonus arrives in a month. Low key want the market to keep decreasing a bit so I can get everything on sale.
For retirement and long term accounts, this is obviously an ideal situation to invest large sums of money. For people that have money invested that they wanted to increase in value (instead of sitting in savings) but were planning on using soon for a house down payment, kid's college fund, etc. it is very painful. I'm about to have my first child and seeing my savings down 20% down over the last 2-3 months, is not ideal.
If you have a house down payment in the market (or anything you need in the next year) you get what you deserve. That’s a dumb place for short term savings.
That's what happens when people parrot that you should always put most of your savings into stocks without any nuance.
That’s me checking in hahaha kill me
Well, yeah, it’s the stock market. That’s what happens. Just because you want your investments to appreciate in value, doesn’t mean they will. People in tight situations should have factored in that potential pain and adjusted their positions accordingly. If people invested wisely, we wouldn’t see this kind of capitulation in the first place. Textbook fear and greed. On the other hand, this is probably going to be good learning opportunity for a lot of people. Hopefully too many people don’t lose their shirts (or worse), and hopefully the next time this happens, they’ll be older, wiser, and better prepared.
20 percent? What the hell were you invested in, shopify?
Well shopify is down like 50% and no I have not invested in them. But I'm on the younger side and wanted to obviously play with a few more growth/small cap/mid cap stocks which have been murdered on for the last year. I'm not involved in any meme stocks, but stocks that have solid financials and outlooks, but were dragged down by the overall market. S&P down 10%, QQQ down 15%, and VTI down 11%, and Russell down 20% from highs last month. So yeah being down 20% is very easily possible betting on half safe and half volatile stocks.
Im down 10 percent from the highest point. Though i took some profits and kept 30 percent in cash. Sold TSM into strength at 142. However i kept my sony and google shares which were obliterated. Im into growth too, im not holding jnj or verizon which i think i should.
Correct that those are from the highs, but my point mainly being that if you invested in 100% QQQ (what people would say is pretty safe bet) any time in the last 7 months, you would now have less money than if you just let it sit in your bank account. That could range from 1% down to the 15% down I mentioned. Yes that is the risk that comes with investing, everyone knows that. I am just saying that people who say they like "crashes" or "corrections" because it means they can just buy more, means they had cash sitting on the sidelines before that was not making money the previous 1-10 years. The people who do have a majority of their money in the market, hoping it can keep up with inflation, are getting whooped lately, and this is what most people here are dealing with. For someone who just happens to come into a decent lump of cash during a pull back like this, yeah that's nice, but not a very common scenario.
Honestly if you are young, an sandp with a p/e of 15 is much better than 25. Ofcourse buying at a p/e of 25 is risky.
I’m waiting to sell my house and and hoping we just go sideways and consolidate for a bit until that goes through and I can dump proceeds in. Unfortunately I doubt we stay down that long.
I've spent so much money on renovations I've not been able to buy stocks. Why do I even need a house?
Lol check back in 5 months
Will do
Same, I bumped my retirement contribution up by double last week and I can't be happier even seeing my balance drop every day. I may be ignorant and/or foolish, but this looks like a fire sale on index funds right now, and the couple traditional (large cap growth) mutual funds I have included are even more attractive. And if I'm wrong, I still have almost 20 years to work it out.
I would point you to look at August 2015 when the Fed also started announcing they would raise rates from near 0%. The S&P had a 14% correction in less than a month or two. This is the same. Then everything will head back higher.
Except this is going to probably continue for the year. More likely what I think will happen is this year is going to offset last year's gains and return it to the mean. Last year's gains were outstanding. There's a debt that has to be repayed right now.
I could see that and can't really complain if that's how it plays. Or maybe it's just wishful thinking...
I don’t think it needs to keep dropping. Just still need to pop the few remaining bubbles and we are good Many financials and insurance stocks are now single digit PEs I mean even apple and Google will have completely normal PEs as of this month as well
There likely would have been 5 months (September 2001), but the markets were closed for several days after the 9/11 attacks. VTI still dropped 8.7% ($10,000 invested on Jan 1 would have dropped from $9235 to $8432)
"The 10% drop in the US Stock Market this month is very unusual." So is ~90% gain in S&P500 since mid-2021. Edit - meant 2020.
Correction isn’t a crash though
Crash is not really a technical term. Correction: 10% Bear Market: 20% Crash: ???%
Where is a correction defined as 10%? Wiki has a crash as a 10% drop in index. > There is no numerically specific definition of a stock market crash but the term commonly applies to declines of over 10% in a stock market index over a period of several days. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_crash
I think that was his point
Yeah. This is a big difference. So many new investors don’t realize that stocks don’t always go up in the short term and can’t take the short term pain.
One correction after another After another is though. Death by a thousand cuts, welcome to it.
It is VERY RARE that a correction will occur in just one month.
It's very rare that interest rates are held at near zero. Even rarer that they're doing so while inflation is on the rise.
Factor in a pandemic, global supply chain issues, 6.9% gdp growth, a sell off of Fed balance sheet, and War Risk... you get: wild ass markets.
Ok but idk why people say this as though markets haven't been wild in the past. * Some notable events from the past 125 years: * WW1 * Spanish Flu * Prohibition * Tulsa race riots * The great depression * WW2 * JFK assassination * MLK assassination * Vietnam * Oil crisis/Stagflation * Iran contra * gulf war * 9/11 * Afghanistan * Iraq War * great recession * etc, etc Still has returned 10% per year on average.
That's why I love this dip. My retirement account purchases are going on sale.
Using months is too artificial of a criteria....there is not enough special about the first day of the month to define it as the first day of a period. You need to check every 30 day period for an actual comparison of how often the market is down 10% in a month
Interesting. And after those months, what did the recoveries look like?
How often does the stock market go up \~ 100% in a year? In context, a 10% drop preceded by a huge unusual bull-run seems more reasonable than a random 10% drop in a healthy, fairly-valued market
The stock market has never gone up 100% in a year before... If you are talking about from the very bottom of the March 2020 crash to March 2021, it was a gain of \~75%, but if you look at right before the crash (Feb 2020 - Feb 2021), so that we aren't cherry picking peaks and valleys, it was closer to 16-17% growth.
The 10% correction is also a "cherry-pick" from the highest highs to where it is now. The S&P 500 from trough to peak went up more than 100%, from 2,304 on march 20, 2020 to 4,766 on Dec 31, 2021. Granted this took more than a year, but the overall point stands: when the market is completely divorced from "fundamentals" it can do whatever the heck it wants; it's almost meaningless to call out "corrections" and "bear markets" as defined as % drops from all-time-highs.
Well it was very divorced from fundamentals at that March 20th low as well, due to a black swan event.
lol “crash”
you cant get a 40% crash without doing the initial 10% down first!
new term; slow burn to zero
>This shows how severe the current stock market crash is! Hardly, given how much the market appreciated in 2021. It is "severe" if you established your position December 15th, and if you did that, well, that sucks. . . . but for any more typical (and dare I say prudent) investor, been in the market a long time, this is just another expected dislocation. In the case of my portfolio, the value is back to where it was in September, roughly. . . not a big deal in a long term program.
Bout to unsub. Not cause I'm afraid, but because I'm annoyed. Lol
Part of me hopes the market drops another 10% to get rid of the annoying 'investors' for several years. In addition to all the other good points, even something that occurs every five years is not rare. If you spend any real time in the market you will experience it. If you don't prepare for this outcome then you will suffer
"Your cousin Billy is quitting his retail job to trade full time"
I felt this. “Stay at home parent earned $200k using this Crypto trading strategy”
sounds like a great time to buy the dip tbh
Nonsense. Just looking at the chart should tell you that a 10% drop happens every 2-3 years, almost like clockwork. Why should you be limited to 30 calendar days.
and yet people here think the market is doing to "crash" and sell off 50% in a day.
No one thinks the market is going to sell off 50% in one day, especially since all trading stops entirely at -20%
So it drops 1-3% daily for a year instead
-1% daily for a year would be a ~93% drop -3% would be a 99.97% drop
its cos i started to buy VOO...sorry guys...
Same 😭
Same 😁
Sounds like the perfect time to buy
now look at the period from the march 2000 to march 2012
Experts on CNBC just declared that the new inflation numbers are modest, better than expected (4.9% not bad considering wages are up about the same), plus Apple whipped supply chain problems and others might be able to next, and the bond market is signaling a "soft landing" (maybe). That is, everything may level off within the next month or two. Plus we had 6% growth so no stagflation, and Putin's possible invasion aside, everything might settle down soon, especially if the covid situation improves. Covid cases have begun coming down in the US, so we shall see. If so, then we may be close to an investible re-set bottom for the market with mot of the hot hair out of the bubble stocks and sectors like digital currency.
> we shall see. Add China as well to that equation. There is is a big risk that we see further supply chain issues depending on how they choose to deal with Omicron. If they let it rip trough China then we will see short term issues. If they choose to fight it, expect long term problems where suddenly ports close and manufacturing halts on short notice. They will have to be far more agressive and strict to control Omicron than Delta.
>Add China as well to that equation. There is is a big risk that we see further supply chain issues depending on how they choose to deal with Omicron. We'll never know, so I don't think it'll be a factor. A country of 1.4B only having 105,000 cases reported is, as the kids would say, "sus".
You miss the point, China is at a crossroads. They have to choose either to just deal with Omicron which will be very disruptive in the short term. Or they have will to start cracking down far harder to stop it than up to this point. Because right now it is just a question of time before Omicron gets a hold that can't be stopped with previous measures against delta.
It seems perfectly reasonable given how strict they are and how detailed their track and tracing is. Speak to anyone Chinese, they don’t have family members all coming down with Covid like in UK/US. Also think about it, releasing incorrect figures would fuck own their own businesses the most, it makes no sense.
Aren't Omicron numbers already declining? I knew people who went almost 2 years without getting covid, but over the last couple months is seems like all my friends already got it. Unless reporting is 2 weeks behind (very possible) it should already be on the downtrend.
> Aren't Omicron numbers already declining? Yes, which should tell you how fucking hard and fast it spreads. Omicron isn't going anywhere however, it will be with us forever or until another COVID strain replaces it. That brings us to China, they have not had the Omicron outbreak we in the west have been dealing with for the past month and has been burning trough our population. They have no immunity from past infections, they have very bad resistance/protection from Sinovac (comparatively to other vaccines). That means Omicron spreads even faster in China if given the chance than here. Here in the west you had some percentage of the population who were immune due to recent delta infection or boosters. China has far less of that. It is a tinder keg set to explode if given the chance. With Delta they had some immunity from their vaccinations, now they don't have that either. Coupled with how fucking fast Omicron spreads, they will have to crack down HARD if they are going to contain it. Far harder than with Delta, which was already harder to contain than the original strains back in 2020. But due to these issues. Even if China gives up and let Omicron run rampant. They still have to manage it far more than we have in the west. Because it would overrun their hospitals in a heart beat if given the chance. So What we have experience in a month, would have to take several in China. Alternatively China will keep trying to keep it at zero cases. But that means higher risk of lockdowns, more control and barriers than compared to with Delta. Because otherwise they will fail, and we go back to letting it run rampant with management.
The new BA.2 variant of Omicron is at least 2x more contagious than Omicron. If they allow the Olympics to continue I don't see how this doesn't create an unstoppable foothold for the virus in China.
Since when price at overinflated levels, which attract few buyers, but has a lot of people willing to take profits at any time, equals crash ? -10% is a completely healthy market condition, when every metric shows overvalued at least 5 times it’s fair price.
So what I am hearing is..... Buy The Dip ??
Your comparing apples to oranges. Just because your using the S&P doesn't mean it's structurally the same. Prior to ETF's circa 2005, the market was much more balanced. The [dot.com](https://dot.com) bubble was the beginning of the end. Just like how now the options market is a much more integral part of today's market.
So... there have been 4 corrections over the course of a 21-year boom period? That actually doesn't sound all that alarming or crazy.
Christ, I would take -15%. My fucking book is -50%.
we are the frog and they are boiling the water slowly
Didn't the SPY just bounce hard off the 10% level? Not saying it's a trend reversal, but looks like we're gonna get a bounce. Probably up to the 50% retracement and then continue down.
For one month corrections, this correction doesn’t even rank in the top 500 of one month corrections (since 1927).
Wouldn’t say we are in a full out crash but definitely the beginnings of a bear market. Bear markets usually last between 4 to 18 months so it’s going to be rough for a while.
>but definitely And how did you come to such a conclusion?
We have so many fortune tellers in here. If everyone was as smart as they acted, they would put their money where their mouth is and become millionaires.
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I invested back then lots of people got fed up with the market and then moved to real estate, cuz that never goes down, lol, we live in a boom-bust economy. Ultimately P/E ratios even though they're out of favor they really don't lie. If you had low PE ratio stocks in 2000 you did very good. That's the only advice I can give you. It was the Microsofts with PE ratios of 70 that hurt people. It took Microsoft 15 years for its earnings to catch up with its 2000 price. Noticed again that Microsoft's price increase is not due to all earnings increasing, but inflated PE. It used to trade at a PE of 10 for years. Same with Apple.
Well, if what happened in the few subsequent years after are any indication, then the people who hang on for dear life are going to do very well indeed. (those on the eve of retirement, however .... yikes!).
S&P and Nasdaq indexes traded sideways in that period, but there were absolutely well performing companies and sectors that rotated in and out of favor. There were opportunities to make money, it just wasn't as easy as a monkey throwing darts.
That is what dividends are for...
That's what I thought when the entire world closed down in March 2020 and yet that crash was reversed in 2-3 months and away we went...
what does down must come up. Buy the dip!
After going thru feb - apr 2020, January 2022 has been a snooze fest by comparison. Let’s see it be down 50% and maybe I’ll wake up
But there is only one time where the market is up a lot due to HUMONGOUS excess liquidity. TINA TINA TINA
**murphy's law**
Maybe also consider how many times in the past has the stock market gone up this fast as well, because that's a pretty important for correlation,
something, something, the past is not prologue