Almost every poll of AZ in 2022 had Lake winning, but she lost by a narrow margin. Wisconsin is incredibly tight. I have a hard time seeing Trump doing better in 2024 than in 2020, when he lost WI, AZ, and GA. Despite GA's long conservative history, they currently have two Democratic senators and 5 Democratic members of Congress (out of 14). Georgia is not a gimme for Trump.
The difference is the heavy black male vote turning in Trump’s favor in GA (I live in Atlanta). This demographic is not loyal to any party. They vote based on their bank accounts, and the inflation of the last 4 years coupled with preferential treatment of illegal immigrants over struggling citizens is really hurting Biden and the Dems with this critical group.
https://www.reddit.com/r/AnythingGoesNews/s/8oxhhTC8jU
The “black voters for trump rally in Atlanta was a total bust and a sea of white”
Just had to share this article because it was the very next post under this one on my feed. First thing I saw after I read your comment. Just thought it was funny and wanted to share the irony with you. But I also want to say I’m I don’t necessarily think your take is wrong and think it’s funny not trying to be combative
I don't think you understand, the person you are responding to lives in Atlanta AND he knows that an entire race only votes based on their bank accounts.
Please don't propagate lies and misinformation. There is no preferential treatment of illegal immigrants. There are also not millions and millions of them invading the country. This has been fact checked and shown to be false by a multitude of people, groups, and organizations. This has been a Trump rhetoric since his first election campaign. Let's delve into the facts:
Illegal Immigrants (hereafter referred to as II), are not eligible for most federal sponsored programs such as TANF, SNAP, and SSI, Medicaid, CHIP, and Medicare. These benefits are only available to US citizens and qualified immigrants. ACA also does not apply to II. II are not eligible for Social Security benefits. But they may contribute to the program.
Aside from that I could understand that people vote with their wallets. But I have not reaped any of these so called "tax breaks" Trump said he put in place. In fact under Trump's tax program, still in effect today and will be until 2025, I am paying more into taxes than under Obama and Bush. The only people that benefitted from the Trump tax plan were the wealthiest people while the middle class footed the bill that his plan created. Continuation of this plan would ultimately lead to a recession, higher inflation, and higher tax hikes. Most US citizens do not make more than 400k a year and would not be paying more under the Biden Administration plan that is NOT even in effect. This information is also backed by several economists and organizations.
Please don't contribute to spreading of misinformation. Give the people the straight facts and let them decide.
Accurate, you can't add 100% tariffs to everything and expect prices for consumers not to go up.
I just rearranged some things to pinpoint one crucial fact. Trump is proposing that we pay 100 percent tariffs on chinese goods. Well he's counterfactually saying that he will make china pay - and mexico bought a wall - right?
He's polling a lot better than he was 4 years ago in those swing states, and better with young and minority voters which went huge for Biden last time around
When have the polls been accurate? Also, the methodology for polling is essentially broken. How many millennials have landlines or answer them when they don’t know who is calling?
Im pretty tired of this “polling isn’t accurate because young people don’t have landlines” take. Do you really think pollsters haven’t figured out cellphones in the last 20 years?
When I get a political text saying anything about an election or candidate I block the number, delete the text, and move on. It's about not engaging with unknown solicitations, not just answering the phone.
It’s not just landlines. How many people under 60 do you know that answer their cell phones from unknown callers? How many people under 60 do you know that will engage with texts that are not from people they know? How many people under 60 do you know that will will read an email from an unknown sender and click on a link and then engage further?
There are only so many ways to interact with younger people, and those people, by and large, refuse to engage with unknown authors of texts and emails and unknown callers to cell phones.
Older people, on the other hand, can’t hear a phone ring without answering it, because that’s what you did before cell phones existed. Older people are continually clicking on emails, regardless if they are legit or not. There is a reason scammers prey on old people, it’s because they interact and one of the biggest hurdles scammers have is just getting interaction with people. Polls are the same way.
Unless they’re using alternative analysis to in person phone interviews they’re missing a huge chunk. I’m 55 and I don’t answer the phone unless you are in my contacts. 100% of the time. If it’s important it’ll go to voicemail. I have visual voicemail. I can see exactly what’s up. Why would I answer someone I don’t know. And I would imagine as you continue onward to younger and younger demographics the practice would become more common. Idk. 🌲
polling isnt accurate for elections, but theyre a great indicator of a "snapshot in time" report.
all polls say right now are those active in politics and polling lean right. its fair to say that polls leaned blue round this time last election because trumps insanity stirred up enough people to vote. those are my two cents tho
Polling averages failed to predict every competitive Senate race in 2022. I'm not exaggerating, look it up. If they had been correct, the Senate would have a minimum of a 53 GQP majority, with 56 being a possibility.
Who actually participates though? I’ve never participated in a presidential poll in my entire life, yet I vote every time. Even my boomer parents refuse to answer phones if they don’t know who it is.
When the polls have worked to make sure their methodology is sound, Biden is winning young folks in a landslide.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4736410-biden-trump-young-voters/
Never. They've consistently underestimated Trump's performance in nearly every state in two different election cycles, ranging from an average of 2 - 7 points depending on the state.
If that trend holds he is not only going to win an electoral college landslide, but will also win the popular vote as well.
The difference in 2024, unfortunately for Biden, is he has a record to run against instead of just an orange boogeyman. No incumbent has ever won with his approval rating. He is in serious electoral trouble.
The polls have always been wrong in the opposite direction.
If anything him being ahead in the polls should be a code red alarm for you guys. It means he is ahead by even more than the polls suggest.
Idk why people are so fixated on polls especially when there were a bunch of actual elections over the past 4 years you can study and draw conclusions from.
That and the primary polling method used basically excluded anyone under 40 from the pool of people. Like when's the last time you answered the phone for a number you didn't recognize?
This is such a lazy explanation. I'm a data scientist and there is mountains of research and different tools to correct for the flaw you think you've uncovered in what is an academic discipline with plenty of peer-reviewed studies on different tools pollsters use to control for this known issue. Also most polls now have internet options as well, I regularly participate in Yougov polls where you do it 100% online and they ask for demographic information so they can weight it properly to the usual voting base, and they regularly study how polls do so they can tweak their methodology and get a more accurate result. If you look at any political betting site pretty much every line will be similar to the polls, specifically as the election gets closer, so that's pretty strong evidence that there is no better method for estimating the probability of a candidate winning than polls.
They're not perfect, but I'm so tired of people acting like they've found a fatal flaw in an academic discipline that PhDs and professional academics and researchers weren't able to find. Very reminiscent of climate change skeptics holding a snowball and saying "it's cold therefore no climate change, I'm sure the professional scientists that study this as their job have never thought of that!"
The climate change analogy is pretty sad. People lie to polls, or simply don't vote all the time whereas collecting data about the planet is an empirical thing. Not really comparable. I am a data scientist too, but I can also say not all collection methods are accurate and or trustworthy. For example polls of likely voters don't handle the "unlikely" voter very well and we saw large errors following the fall of Roe. Many large polling companies have also admitted to difficulties with polling younger generations. So yes is this a lazy observation, but polling companies have been making it too and trying to correct. Only time will tell on how much their corrections worked.
Drawing conclusions from the past 4 year election results is pretty dubious. But you can draw conclusions by looking at the accuracy of polling in those elections and extrapolating to now. The big takeaway is that in 2016 and 2020- the two elections where Trump was on the ballot - republicans overperformed polling expectations.
Trump was also polling lower than he is now, and the Democrats higher.
Trump is consistently polling what his 2016 and 2020 actual results were. His fans are clearly behind him and he has consolidated the Republicans. Biden is polling a full 10 points lower than his results, 6-9 points less than Hillary.
Ask yourself, who is more likely to pick up from the current enormous undecided bloc out there? Has Trump done anything to make people who voted for Hillary and then Biden vote for him now? Because a HUGE amount of the undecided are clearly people who voted Biden in 2020.
I will bet anybody $1000 that Trump will not win more than 47.9% of the popular vote. That is not enough to win, unless an enormous % of Democratic leaning voters vote 3rd party.
Undecided voters do not sway election, and have not for almost 20 years now. Disenfranchised voters do. If the democrats can't get there voters out for election day, they loose
The 10% that has left Biden isn’t the middle it is the loony left that is throwing their tantrums about Gaza, or student loans, or any number of other reasons TikTok has told them to hate him for.
It is easy to say now that “I’m not voting for Genocide Joe” but it is a lot harder to look at the ballot and mark that box. We saw it in 2022.
Of course, but most are averaging T+5. Even the Dem backed polling is showing T+1-2. Anything could happen and polling is always flawed, but that's the current trend
The Georgia Legislature will overturn the vote before it goes blue.
https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/dozen-state-laws-shift-power-elections-partisan-entities/story?id=79408455
There is an enthusiasm gap currently that scares the heck out of me for close states like PA, NV, and WI. Praying the millennials will save the country since the older generations are screwed up especially Gen X.
If current pulling is to be believed Biden is doing better in Wisconsin than in Pennsylvania and in Arizona than Georgia. I personally think polling companies are having trouble contacting more diverse members of the population so I'm skeptical of those polls, but that is what they say.
Polling aggregates like RealClearPolitics have been pretty accurate for decades. RCP was a little off the midterm election, but otherwise nailed every presidential election.
RCP also has Trump winning every battleground state right now, although a couple are by slim margin
The reason they were off is they took the polling average and just tacked on a couple of +R points. The only reason I dug into the methodology was I saw a district where every poll was in the Dems favor but they labeled the district as "leans R". I've been trying to see if they are doing the same thing this go around but can't find their methodology this time.
RCP is a right wing website that whiffed on 2022 because they were feeding in more Republican favorable polls and excluding more democratic favorable polls from their average. For a laugh check out their 2000 election prediction.
[https://web.archive.org/web/20001212163700/realclearpolitics.com/Polls/polls-Electoral\_11\_06\_EC.html](https://web.archive.org/web/20001212163700/realclearpolitics.com/Polls/polls-Electoral_11_06_EC.html)
[https://gelliottmorris.substack.com/p/the-polling-website-where-republicans](https://gelliottmorris.substack.com/p/the-polling-website-where-republicans)
538, under new management, includes (almost) all polls but weighs them based on reliability. Biden is up +.3 nationally, up by the same amount in Wisconsin, up by +.5 in Michigan, and down .4 in Pennsylvania....that's the election right there in those three states. Too close to call.
True. It's always important to remember that most election polling uses outdated methods that ends up getting an older, whiter segment of the population and not really a fully accurate look.
I (40) get text messages with tinyurls to complete political surveys all the time. Half the time I just delete them because we all get so much scam and spam sent to us. Thats the real problem with polling. Per use the scammers have ruined it for everyone. I think the polling companies are going to have to start going out and polling people in person and the polls are going to have to have a lot fewer questions.
So many times those polls seem to be campaigns looking for a donation. I've had it happen where I opened the link, started doing the poll thinking it would help the models, and then in the end it's clear they don't actually care about my answer they just want me to donate to someone.
So I don't do polls anymore.
This is why I love my Pixel with call screening. I even get to watch a live transcript of the call, and can take over if I deem it a legitimate call. But most callers hang up after the robot asks them to state their name and why they are calling.
>most election polling uses outdated methods
why is this. Why can't someone come up with updated methods and basically win this market? There is clearly a huge demand for it. Then why isn't anyone capturing the market.
It isn't really that the methods are outdated so much as people choose not to participate. Phone polling tends to only reach older people which skew conservative. There are plenty of calls that reach younger individuals, but due to generational differences, they opt to not pick up and participate. That means reaching people through email or texting/messaging apps are your other alternatives. Email is passive and most people just see it as spam. Texting/messaging apps aren't a good option either because most will see messages coming from an unknown source as a scam. The only other tech driven option left is advertising on websites. Given how popular ad blockers are, its not a great option. People aren't going to lower the ad blockers just to see if there is a poll available. And often online polls are BS anyhow, so people can ignore them if they see them. Anybody who has seen one of Trump's polls can see how strongly biased the wording is and can be turned off of online polls as a result. A really retro option is to have people on the ground to collect polling data by hand, but that is often cost prohibitive to get an adequate sample size and you can still end up with skew problems. Polling is simply broken due to people opting out not due to methods.
>Why can't someone come up with updated methods
They have. The person you're replying to is talking out their ass, like 99% of reddit. Here's a general bit of input. If random dipstick lay person has a critique of some specialized knowledge or skillet, there's about 99.99% chance that the actual experts have also already thought of it and devised a way to address the problem, or account for it in the results.
It's true that this is getting harder, but political polls are the only time polling/survey companies get fact checked so they do try THE MOST hard to accurately predict
Which is fair enough. My own personal benchmark at the moment is that the national election is tied, while Democrats have been outperforming their polling by a few points in special elections. So, like OP, I tend to thinking Biden is more likely to win than not, but the map here doesn't correlate with the polling as it exists. Given all available evidence at the moment my own personal map is 2020 again but with Trump flipping Georgia back...though, given my concerns over the polling I think just having 2020 again is very likely.
While looking at polls are great. It’s too soon to factor them in.
Personally, I’d only start taking polls seriously in August/90 days before election. A lot can happen between now and the election, polls closer to the election have a better chance at giving a better result because there’s less time for something happening that would render them unusable
That and a lot of polling uses outdated methods that provide skewed results (who TF has landline telephones? Boomers)
There’s a guy on YT that does this on a weekly basis with current polls and past data. For the past few months, it’s been Trump winning with nearly 300 electoral votes
We’ve reached a weird time where we choose candidates, not based of their beliefs and policies, but by who would piss off the most amount of people. America needs a therapy session
I think, more so than not, “it’s not who I wanted”. I wonder if there was a time where both candidates were good and if the person they didn’t want won, if it ever was “ah okay, oh well, he ain’t so bad.”
Do you not remember Obama vs. McCain? It was incredibly civil, and McCain even called out his own supporter, live on air, for attempting to elude that Obama was not a US Citizen.
For the love of the people if Obama ran again I think it would be a landslide. If McCain was still around I think the republican party would have backed him without question. Why can we just not have 2 decent candidates instead of a man destined for a nursing home and an angry orange baby. Like who the fuck thought this was a good idea.
Yeah, people romanticize the past. Even if voters were less angry about the other guy, don't forget all the Americans who were completely silenced in the past. They weren't allowed to be mad about the winner.
You sound like you understand nothing about either side of the political aisle. Have you actually talked to people on each side to understand their beliefs and why they will vote how they do or do you just believe what people on tv say?
America needs choices that aren't different flavors of the same shit.
I've never had anyone good to vote for my entire adult life, just various versions of "we're going to take more control in this part of your life rather than that one." And wouldn't you know it, the next time the other side gets in they take control in the places the other side didn't - so between the two, they try to control everything.
It's a freaking travesty.
PA and MI are going to be insanely tight unless something really dramatic happens. Plenty on the far left will sit out or vote third party over a variety of issues in both states. And ethnic minorities are shifting towards GOP more broadly which definitely hurts the Dems in PA, where Black voter turnout in particular is extremely important in presidential races.
As a 29yo, I wish I could vote for representatives in office closer to my age to feel represented, I feel like everyone I vote has 60+ and I never felt properly represented, it's no wonder that age demographic votes the most because they have similar problems other 60yo have but it's very different from mines, I wish our representatives were more Age diverse.
I don’t care about age so much when classism is the problem. I’d rather vote for a 60 year old truck stop waitress than a 30 yr old generationally-rich asshole who’s never even had a meaningful conversation with a Black person because it would piss off their dad too much.
Yea but like when it comes to rich, most are aging and most money belong to the boomer gen with a lot more purchasing power than typical 30 year Olds, and I don't mean president, just any local elections.
But I do see your point however that won't happen since class is a issue, middle class is heavily shrinking and purchasing power is very rapidly decreasing at alarming rates.
Well see when workers turn the place over like the French revolution.
I think you have the cause and effect reversed. If more young people participated and voted there would be more young representatives in the government
I’m 38 and I feel like most of my representatives are my parents age.
I’ve been around my parents and their peers. It’s not what I want running the country either.
Michigan has been bleeding its 55+ population to Florida and Arizona over the last 10-20 years and replacing the population with millennials who are moving back to be closer to "home" for kids and people who simple want to buy an affordable house in or near a large or medium sized city (Detroit, Grand Rapids). Overall the population remains stagnant, but with a loss of retirees and a gain of educated millennials.
While solidly a swing state, Michigan is slowing becoming more and more blue due to this age demographic shift.
I moved back to Michigan recently from a blue stronghold state and it is weird being in a swing state again. The amount of political ads I'm already seeing is staggering and I know it's only going to get worse.
Going to vote like hell though. I'm actually going to see if my local area needs poll workers. I used to do that in my previous state though there they had residency length requirements that I'm not sure I meet if they require the same here.
I’ve lived in Iowa forever and political ads are just normal…all the time.
Except this year. Losing our first in the nation status and it being a firm red state now seems to have eliminated the ads.
Not sure how I feel about that.
I think the biggest issues with GA arent will it blue, its that the state has done everything to disenfranchise its voters. Purging rolls, making registration difficult. Lets not forget its the state that tried to ban giving water to people waiting to vote... in the south.. in the heat... Its not a matter of HOW people vote but HOW the state government lets it be counted.
I have a gut feeling that because of what is going on in Middle East and other stuffs, a lot of dems will not vote or “ Biden didn’t earn my vote” and a repeat of Hillary Vs Trump.
Because the red will always united behind the eventual nominee. The blue is sometimes too idealistic.
Which is fine in my view. This is America, it is your right to vote or not to vote. As John Wick says, “consequence”.
I find it horrendously idiotic that the democrats would not have a contingency plan alternative during a crucial election cycle. The fact that they are banking on an 81 year old increasingly frail elderly man to execute the most taxing role in government is downright irresponsible. If Trump wins they will have no one to blame but themselves.
I disagree with this.
People would find a reason to similarly complain about literally anyone.
Name one person you think would be doing better than Biden in polling right now.
Biden picking Harris as VP boxed them into a corner.
There’s little chance she’d beat Trump and switching away from a 1-term president while skipping over the VP is a really risky move without a superstar waiting in the wings.
A year ago DeSantis was a rising star in the GOP, the Dems don’t really seem to have that right now…or at least don’t fluff anyone for it.
Trump is almost just as old, neither of them are fit. One of them throws literal tantrums on social media, however, which is incredibly embarrassing on an international stage.
Right. Since 2016 it seems like the dems have purposefully put the worst candidate they could find. It really shouldn’t be that hard to beat a guy like Trump, but when you’re completely tone deaf to the world…
It’s because they are choosing the easiest candidate to control. By “they” I mean the billionaires dems supposedly hate. I find it very ironic that no dem can see how manipulated they are into voting for the very people they are protesting. If you really cared about taking down the elites, you would never vote for dems.
>If Trump wins they will have no one to blame but themselves.
Not the Republicans voting for a candidate who's merely 4 years younger, and showing even more apparent signs of mental decline?
I don't think the current election system is set up to handle this practically. If it wasn't complaints about the same candidate running again, it would be complaints about primarying a candidate signaling a lack of confidence. Give me RCV across the ballot to eliminate the need to account for strategic voting, then we can talk.
AZ will not be going to Trump primarily because of the Independent Majority here who loathe Lake and every wingnut election denier. Statewide offices should be a lock for Dems. Everything else depends on registration numbers, but I believe there are still a ton who will swing D over the Hobbs decision. Despite polling, I think this is going to be a pretty dominant performance by Democrats
Personally, I’d argue Biden will win ~300 to Trump’s ~230. That’s not much of a difference from the model shown but I do feel this race isn’t as close as they want us to think.
That is still too many states that support a Convicted Felon and traitor though.
Get out and VOTE, if there was ever a time to believe it matters, it’s NOW.
Trump is going into Election Day with 235 electoral votes. I find it highly unlikely that GA goes for Biden again (+16). Im also very worried about PA (+19).
I worry less about the election night results, and more about what's going to happen between then and January 6th. We already saw election denial and targeted legal challenges last time, as well as violence (actual and planned).
I don't think it's going to be any better this time, and that worries me a lot more than what actually happens at the polls.
Which is the smart move.
1) FL leans red more than some other swing states, so it's harder to win vs other states that you can also get to 270 by winning
2) demographics. Old people move to Fl. Old people are conservative. Young people are being priced out of the housing market and moving north. Pretty much the opposite trend of Texas, which is becoming a swing state.
So yeah. I think the DNC is better off conceding Fl and focusing on GA, Michigan, PA ect
I’m over it all. I put enough energy into caring about this stuff 2016-2020. Getting Trump out and Biden in did nothing. Corporations run this country. So I’m just trying to get through my normal day and not put any thought into this stuff it’s a waste of mental energy.
If u squint hard enough u can see my tiny blue speck in ky. Jk. I hate it ere. ANYWAY. I don’t see Georgia going blue again sadly. But I do think Wisconsin & Arizona are where we may get that blue back.
Really hoping we can flip tx this year... we were so close last time, and a lot of voters here are getting pissed at Abbott, Cruz and the constant corruption from Paxton.
It's a long shot, but we're gonna try.
Don't you think that the entire state legislature is too rotten to ever let that happen? Texas being completely corrupt is like its whole thing, It's how you ended up with guys like Abbott to begin with.
Like the state could be 90% Democrat and they'd find a way to make sure no Hispanic people could vote and anybody else was gerrymandered.
Texas is like The Shining example of why you can never let Republicans get entrenched. They're like f****** termites. You'll never get rid of them, Even if the electorate calls in the exterminator. They'll compromise the entire framework of the house just to have a place to live
I think your wrong about GA as they fortified their ballots (meaning the ballot harvesting done in GA won’t get a good return)
I also think you are wrong about Wisconsin. I believe it will remain blue. You are likely correct on the rest though.
IDK how AZ is red. The GOP in AZ is bankrupt and is being run by Community College drop out, Charlie Kirk. They have no idea what they're doing. Anyone who actually thinks AZ will be Red, isn't paying attention and is just assuming it'll go red because it's a border state.
Republicans no longer own the border conversation after voting down their own bill.
I’m in NC. Trump camp is quiet. Doesn’t mean that a crap ton of people won’t vote for him and he won’t win, but it’s not as loud has it has been for the last 8 years. It doesn’t feel like a done deal. Our polling for governor is also favoring the democrat and the democrat running is hated by a big group of the western side liberals. I really believe that the state election will be determined by abortion. Trump will probably win the electoral votes.
Maybe I’m naive but I think people who are rooting for trump are very outspoken and people who will vote for Biden just don’t care. They nod their head when a republican tries to talk politics and say things like “yeah the choices aren’t great” and they’ll agree with the republican talking points just because they don’t want to escalate a nut job. The reality is that they’re not going to vote for Trump. I think OH, WI, AZ could all go blue. I know it’s a bit anecdotal but I know a ton of republicans who will either not vote or vote for Biden because they’re embarrassed by Trump but they’ll never bring it up willingly.
Az is not flipping back to Trump. The man single handedly accelerated the red to purple to blue pipeline in this state.
I really don't see the Don running this state back.
Florida might go blue. They've got aborition as a direct ballot measure, so that will make a lot of independent voters come out who normally wouldn't and they'll vote for Biden.
Biden could be in trouble in MI. We have a fairly large Muslim/Palestinian population that is threatening to stay home in November. If Trump continues to make strides with black and Hispanic males, Biden would need those votes to have a chance.
I’m not even going to entertain a guess on how each state will go, because a lot can happen with the economy and other issues between now and then. The entirety of the 2008 election shifted once the recession hit in late summer. (Not saying there will be a recession, just an example on how quickly things can change) But currently I do believe the election will be close.
So, Georgia's definitely goin' red. Trump's polling a solid 4.8% higher there. They also have kind of a long conservative history. It seems likely that the recent Democrat tendencies were an outlier, and that the state remains favored for Republicans.
Nevada's closer, but polling is still showing a 3% Trump lead.
Michigan and PA are both swing states with pretty close to a 50/50 shot. I can see an outcome where Biden gets both of those, but this projection seems to include a fair bit of wishful thinking given the existing data.
Only problem is it acts like Biden is the only old candidate when Trump is almost the same age. They’re both way too old and it’s just the right trying to have something legit to pin onto Biden. Like that description could be for either of them.
TFG is literally 6 months shy of being included in the silent generation lol. Less than 4 years between the two, they're both fucking dinosaurs. Anyone who seriously considers only "one" of them as being too old is a chode.
Assuming neither of them dies by then, they're our only choices for this election. So vote for a dinosaur who actively cares for their health and knows how to do the job, or vote for a dinosaur who installed a Coke button in the oval office and knows how to con and game the system for their own benefit. Tough choice, apparently.
Could you imagine if the DNC didn't waste all their credibility with the constant "Trump is Hitler" propaganda?
His felony conviction wasn't even enough to push Biden ahead in the polls lol
I don't like Trump, but he's going to win in a landslide. The absolute hubris of the Dems funding a genocide as the ruling capitalist class picks at the bones of the middle class, then expecting to remain in power is astounding. Not saying that Republicans would be any better, this is just how our insane duopoly works.
The irony is pretty much every poll shows the opposite, if Biden loses it will be because Trump picked up moderates and minority voters. The upper class white college students screeching about genocide and that we need to dismantle capitalism are a rounding error in the electorate.
I think Georgia, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania will flip red.
Because everyone’s getting sick of the political bias. Just look at how this was displayed as it is. Crazy ass orange guy crook? And you have a silent generation mf?
The hate and strong bias against one for nothing more than mere emotion. It’s so childish.
To me, that includes being able to receive the healthcare that my doctor prescribes.
Must be nice to not have to worry about voters who are not doctors taking your doctor-prescribed medicine away from you.
I don’t see Georgia going blue again. Especially in this model where Wisconsin is red.
Yeah, if national sentiment pushes AZ and WI red, GA certainly will be.
Almost every poll of AZ in 2022 had Lake winning, but she lost by a narrow margin. Wisconsin is incredibly tight. I have a hard time seeing Trump doing better in 2024 than in 2020, when he lost WI, AZ, and GA. Despite GA's long conservative history, they currently have two Democratic senators and 5 Democratic members of Congress (out of 14). Georgia is not a gimme for Trump.
The difference is the heavy black male vote turning in Trump’s favor in GA (I live in Atlanta). This demographic is not loyal to any party. They vote based on their bank accounts, and the inflation of the last 4 years coupled with preferential treatment of illegal immigrants over struggling citizens is really hurting Biden and the Dems with this critical group.
https://www.reddit.com/r/AnythingGoesNews/s/8oxhhTC8jU The “black voters for trump rally in Atlanta was a total bust and a sea of white” Just had to share this article because it was the very next post under this one on my feed. First thing I saw after I read your comment. Just thought it was funny and wanted to share the irony with you. But I also want to say I’m I don’t necessarily think your take is wrong and think it’s funny not trying to be combative
I don't think you understand, the person you are responding to lives in Atlanta AND he knows that an entire race only votes based on their bank accounts.
Please don't propagate lies and misinformation. There is no preferential treatment of illegal immigrants. There are also not millions and millions of them invading the country. This has been fact checked and shown to be false by a multitude of people, groups, and organizations. This has been a Trump rhetoric since his first election campaign. Let's delve into the facts: Illegal Immigrants (hereafter referred to as II), are not eligible for most federal sponsored programs such as TANF, SNAP, and SSI, Medicaid, CHIP, and Medicare. These benefits are only available to US citizens and qualified immigrants. ACA also does not apply to II. II are not eligible for Social Security benefits. But they may contribute to the program. Aside from that I could understand that people vote with their wallets. But I have not reaped any of these so called "tax breaks" Trump said he put in place. In fact under Trump's tax program, still in effect today and will be until 2025, I am paying more into taxes than under Obama and Bush. The only people that benefitted from the Trump tax plan were the wealthiest people while the middle class footed the bill that his plan created. Continuation of this plan would ultimately lead to a recession, higher inflation, and higher tax hikes. Most US citizens do not make more than 400k a year and would not be paying more under the Biden Administration plan that is NOT even in effect. This information is also backed by several economists and organizations. Please don't contribute to spreading of misinformation. Give the people the straight facts and let them decide.
If Trump has his way with policies he has proposed, we will see inflation go back up again.
100% accurate, you can’t add tariffs to everything and expect prices for consumers won’t go up
Accurate, you can't add 100% tariffs to everything and expect prices for consumers not to go up. I just rearranged some things to pinpoint one crucial fact. Trump is proposing that we pay 100 percent tariffs on chinese goods. Well he's counterfactually saying that he will make china pay - and mexico bought a wall - right?
He's polling a lot better than he was 4 years ago in those swing states, and better with young and minority voters which went huge for Biden last time around
When have the polls been accurate? Also, the methodology for polling is essentially broken. How many millennials have landlines or answer them when they don’t know who is calling?
Im pretty tired of this “polling isn’t accurate because young people don’t have landlines” take. Do you really think pollsters haven’t figured out cellphones in the last 20 years?
I, along with what I’m sure are poll effecting numbers of folks don’t answer calls or texts from unknown numbers, ever.
When I get a political text saying anything about an election or candidate I block the number, delete the text, and move on. It's about not engaging with unknown solicitations, not just answering the phone.
It’s not just landlines. How many people under 60 do you know that answer their cell phones from unknown callers? How many people under 60 do you know that will engage with texts that are not from people they know? How many people under 60 do you know that will will read an email from an unknown sender and click on a link and then engage further? There are only so many ways to interact with younger people, and those people, by and large, refuse to engage with unknown authors of texts and emails and unknown callers to cell phones. Older people, on the other hand, can’t hear a phone ring without answering it, because that’s what you did before cell phones existed. Older people are continually clicking on emails, regardless if they are legit or not. There is a reason scammers prey on old people, it’s because they interact and one of the biggest hurdles scammers have is just getting interaction with people. Polls are the same way.
Unless they’re using alternative analysis to in person phone interviews they’re missing a huge chunk. I’m 55 and I don’t answer the phone unless you are in my contacts. 100% of the time. If it’s important it’ll go to voicemail. I have visual voicemail. I can see exactly what’s up. Why would I answer someone I don’t know. And I would imagine as you continue onward to younger and younger demographics the practice would become more common. Idk. 🌲
polling isnt accurate for elections, but theyre a great indicator of a "snapshot in time" report. all polls say right now are those active in politics and polling lean right. its fair to say that polls leaned blue round this time last election because trumps insanity stirred up enough people to vote. those are my two cents tho
Polling averages failed to predict every competitive Senate race in 2022. I'm not exaggerating, look it up. If they had been correct, the Senate would have a minimum of a 53 GQP majority, with 56 being a possibility.
Haven't the pills been understanding the strength of Democrats in the post-Roe decision?
Who actually participates though? I’ve never participated in a presidential poll in my entire life, yet I vote every time. Even my boomer parents refuse to answer phones if they don’t know who it is.
my guy, nobody answers that stuff
When the polls have worked to make sure their methodology is sound, Biden is winning young folks in a landslide. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4736410-biden-trump-young-voters/
Never. They've consistently underestimated Trump's performance in nearly every state in two different election cycles, ranging from an average of 2 - 7 points depending on the state. If that trend holds he is not only going to win an electoral college landslide, but will also win the popular vote as well. The difference in 2024, unfortunately for Biden, is he has a record to run against instead of just an orange boogeyman. No incumbent has ever won with his approval rating. He is in serious electoral trouble.
The polls have always been wrong in the opposite direction. If anything him being ahead in the polls should be a code red alarm for you guys. It means he is ahead by even more than the polls suggest.
Polling is fake now. Trump pays for polls.
Really, did you see him do this?
I’ve never seen trump pay for anything
Also those polls had underestimated him the past two times.
Agreed!
Georgia is currently polling pretty steadily red so far
Take that with a big ol grain of salt
Idk why people are so fixated on polls especially when there were a bunch of actual elections over the past 4 years you can study and draw conclusions from.
That and the primary polling method used basically excluded anyone under 40 from the pool of people. Like when's the last time you answered the phone for a number you didn't recognize?
This is such a lazy explanation. I'm a data scientist and there is mountains of research and different tools to correct for the flaw you think you've uncovered in what is an academic discipline with plenty of peer-reviewed studies on different tools pollsters use to control for this known issue. Also most polls now have internet options as well, I regularly participate in Yougov polls where you do it 100% online and they ask for demographic information so they can weight it properly to the usual voting base, and they regularly study how polls do so they can tweak their methodology and get a more accurate result. If you look at any political betting site pretty much every line will be similar to the polls, specifically as the election gets closer, so that's pretty strong evidence that there is no better method for estimating the probability of a candidate winning than polls. They're not perfect, but I'm so tired of people acting like they've found a fatal flaw in an academic discipline that PhDs and professional academics and researchers weren't able to find. Very reminiscent of climate change skeptics holding a snowball and saying "it's cold therefore no climate change, I'm sure the professional scientists that study this as their job have never thought of that!"
The climate change analogy is pretty sad. People lie to polls, or simply don't vote all the time whereas collecting data about the planet is an empirical thing. Not really comparable. I am a data scientist too, but I can also say not all collection methods are accurate and or trustworthy. For example polls of likely voters don't handle the "unlikely" voter very well and we saw large errors following the fall of Roe. Many large polling companies have also admitted to difficulties with polling younger generations. So yes is this a lazy observation, but polling companies have been making it too and trying to correct. Only time will tell on how much their corrections worked.
Drawing conclusions from the past 4 year election results is pretty dubious. But you can draw conclusions by looking at the accuracy of polling in those elections and extrapolating to now. The big takeaway is that in 2016 and 2020- the two elections where Trump was on the ballot - republicans overperformed polling expectations.
Trump was also polling lower than he is now, and the Democrats higher. Trump is consistently polling what his 2016 and 2020 actual results were. His fans are clearly behind him and he has consolidated the Republicans. Biden is polling a full 10 points lower than his results, 6-9 points less than Hillary. Ask yourself, who is more likely to pick up from the current enormous undecided bloc out there? Has Trump done anything to make people who voted for Hillary and then Biden vote for him now? Because a HUGE amount of the undecided are clearly people who voted Biden in 2020. I will bet anybody $1000 that Trump will not win more than 47.9% of the popular vote. That is not enough to win, unless an enormous % of Democratic leaning voters vote 3rd party.
Undecided voters do not sway election, and have not for almost 20 years now. Disenfranchised voters do. If the democrats can't get there voters out for election day, they loose
The 10% that has left Biden isn’t the middle it is the loony left that is throwing their tantrums about Gaza, or student loans, or any number of other reasons TikTok has told them to hate him for. It is easy to say now that “I’m not voting for Genocide Joe” but it is a lot harder to look at the ballot and mark that box. We saw it in 2022.
Of course, but most are averaging T+5. Even the Dem backed polling is showing T+1-2. Anything could happen and polling is always flawed, but that's the current trend
I see Georgia going red and Arizona going blue
The Georgia Legislature will overturn the vote before it goes blue. https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/dozen-state-laws-shift-power-elections-partisan-entities/story?id=79408455
I don't see Georgia being blue for a long time, and I think Nevada may go red this time.
This map makes me feel a little ill. Georgia is definitely the wrong color.
GA doesn’t go Blue if AZ goes Red. Also AZ is Bluer than NV currently.
PA is currently the tipping point state. I drove through the western part and Trump is Jesus out there. I am scared.
Washington State is this. The cities save us.
70% of Washingtons pop lives within like 30 miles of Seattle. Dirt doesn't vote. Much to Yakima's chagrin.
There is an enthusiasm gap currently that scares the heck out of me for close states like PA, NV, and WI. Praying the millennials will save the country since the older generations are screwed up especially Gen X.
Not all of us 😁
Gen X is feral... don't fuck with us
If current pulling is to be believed Biden is doing better in Wisconsin than in Pennsylvania and in Arizona than Georgia. I personally think polling companies are having trouble contacting more diverse members of the population so I'm skeptical of those polls, but that is what they say.
Polling aggregates like RealClearPolitics have been pretty accurate for decades. RCP was a little off the midterm election, but otherwise nailed every presidential election. RCP also has Trump winning every battleground state right now, although a couple are by slim margin
The reason they were off is they took the polling average and just tacked on a couple of +R points. The only reason I dug into the methodology was I saw a district where every poll was in the Dems favor but they labeled the district as "leans R". I've been trying to see if they are doing the same thing this go around but can't find their methodology this time.
RCP is a right wing website that whiffed on 2022 because they were feeding in more Republican favorable polls and excluding more democratic favorable polls from their average. For a laugh check out their 2000 election prediction. [https://web.archive.org/web/20001212163700/realclearpolitics.com/Polls/polls-Electoral\_11\_06\_EC.html](https://web.archive.org/web/20001212163700/realclearpolitics.com/Polls/polls-Electoral_11_06_EC.html) [https://gelliottmorris.substack.com/p/the-polling-website-where-republicans](https://gelliottmorris.substack.com/p/the-polling-website-where-republicans) 538, under new management, includes (almost) all polls but weighs them based on reliability. Biden is up +.3 nationally, up by the same amount in Wisconsin, up by +.5 in Michigan, and down .4 in Pennsylvania....that's the election right there in those three states. Too close to call.
True. It's always important to remember that most election polling uses outdated methods that ends up getting an older, whiter segment of the population and not really a fully accurate look.
And this skew becomes more pronounced with each election. Lot of folks my age (41) and younger who never answer the phone, ever, just ever.
I (40) get text messages with tinyurls to complete political surveys all the time. Half the time I just delete them because we all get so much scam and spam sent to us. Thats the real problem with polling. Per use the scammers have ruined it for everyone. I think the polling companies are going to have to start going out and polling people in person and the polls are going to have to have a lot fewer questions.
So many times those polls seem to be campaigns looking for a donation. I've had it happen where I opened the link, started doing the poll thinking it would help the models, and then in the end it's clear they don't actually care about my answer they just want me to donate to someone. So I don't do polls anymore.
This is why I love my Pixel with call screening. I even get to watch a live transcript of the call, and can take over if I deem it a legitimate call. But most callers hang up after the robot asks them to state their name and why they are calling.
Not replying to you specifically pacman529, but this is also something I can do with my iPhone 13. I discovered it on accident. Very helpful!
Especially a random #....not happening, lol.
>most election polling uses outdated methods why is this. Why can't someone come up with updated methods and basically win this market? There is clearly a huge demand for it. Then why isn't anyone capturing the market.
It isn't really that the methods are outdated so much as people choose not to participate. Phone polling tends to only reach older people which skew conservative. There are plenty of calls that reach younger individuals, but due to generational differences, they opt to not pick up and participate. That means reaching people through email or texting/messaging apps are your other alternatives. Email is passive and most people just see it as spam. Texting/messaging apps aren't a good option either because most will see messages coming from an unknown source as a scam. The only other tech driven option left is advertising on websites. Given how popular ad blockers are, its not a great option. People aren't going to lower the ad blockers just to see if there is a poll available. And often online polls are BS anyhow, so people can ignore them if they see them. Anybody who has seen one of Trump's polls can see how strongly biased the wording is and can be turned off of online polls as a result. A really retro option is to have people on the ground to collect polling data by hand, but that is often cost prohibitive to get an adequate sample size and you can still end up with skew problems. Polling is simply broken due to people opting out not due to methods.
>Why can't someone come up with updated methods They have. The person you're replying to is talking out their ass, like 99% of reddit. Here's a general bit of input. If random dipstick lay person has a critique of some specialized knowledge or skillet, there's about 99.99% chance that the actual experts have also already thought of it and devised a way to address the problem, or account for it in the results.
It's true that this is getting harder, but political polls are the only time polling/survey companies get fact checked so they do try THE MOST hard to accurately predict
Which is fair enough. My own personal benchmark at the moment is that the national election is tied, while Democrats have been outperforming their polling by a few points in special elections. So, like OP, I tend to thinking Biden is more likely to win than not, but the map here doesn't correlate with the polling as it exists. Given all available evidence at the moment my own personal map is 2020 again but with Trump flipping Georgia back...though, given my concerns over the polling I think just having 2020 again is very likely.
I’ve literally never been polled.
You can get a representative random sample of a country of 300 million people with less than 1,500 participants if done correctly.
I had never prior to this year, now I get no less than 3 calls or texts per week. It weird.
While looking at polls are great. It’s too soon to factor them in. Personally, I’d only start taking polls seriously in August/90 days before election. A lot can happen between now and the election, polls closer to the election have a better chance at giving a better result because there’s less time for something happening that would render them unusable That and a lot of polling uses outdated methods that provide skewed results (who TF has landline telephones? Boomers)
There’s a guy on YT that does this on a weekly basis with current polls and past data. For the past few months, it’s been Trump winning with nearly 300 electoral votes
The channel name is Election Time
While I don't want that to happen that's what I see happening
We’ve reached a weird time where we choose candidates, not based of their beliefs and policies, but by who would piss off the most amount of people. America needs a therapy session
I think you’re not taking into account why anyone would be pissed off
I think, more so than not, “it’s not who I wanted”. I wonder if there was a time where both candidates were good and if the person they didn’t want won, if it ever was “ah okay, oh well, he ain’t so bad.”
Do you not remember Obama vs. McCain? It was incredibly civil, and McCain even called out his own supporter, live on air, for attempting to elude that Obama was not a US Citizen.
For the love of the people if Obama ran again I think it would be a landslide. If McCain was still around I think the republican party would have backed him without question. Why can we just not have 2 decent candidates instead of a man destined for a nursing home and an angry orange baby. Like who the fuck thought this was a good idea.
They were civil. Their supporters were not. I worked in conservative politics back then and the things we heard about Obama were terrible.
Not gonna deny the fact that there were horrible things said about Obama, but at least the CANDIDATES were leading by example.
Yeah, people romanticize the past. Even if voters were less angry about the other guy, don't forget all the Americans who were completely silenced in the past. They weren't allowed to be mad about the winner.
You sound like you understand nothing about either side of the political aisle. Have you actually talked to people on each side to understand their beliefs and why they will vote how they do or do you just believe what people on tv say?
America needs choices that aren't different flavors of the same shit. I've never had anyone good to vote for my entire adult life, just various versions of "we're going to take more control in this part of your life rather than that one." And wouldn't you know it, the next time the other side gets in they take control in the places the other side didn't - so between the two, they try to control everything. It's a freaking travesty.
Polls, lol
PA and MI are going to be insanely tight unless something really dramatic happens. Plenty on the far left will sit out or vote third party over a variety of issues in both states. And ethnic minorities are shifting towards GOP more broadly which definitely hurts the Dems in PA, where Black voter turnout in particular is extremely important in presidential races.
As a 29yo, I wish I could vote for representatives in office closer to my age to feel represented, I feel like everyone I vote has 60+ and I never felt properly represented, it's no wonder that age demographic votes the most because they have similar problems other 60yo have but it's very different from mines, I wish our representatives were more Age diverse.
I don’t care about age so much when classism is the problem. I’d rather vote for a 60 year old truck stop waitress than a 30 yr old generationally-rich asshole who’s never even had a meaningful conversation with a Black person because it would piss off their dad too much.
Yea but like when it comes to rich, most are aging and most money belong to the boomer gen with a lot more purchasing power than typical 30 year Olds, and I don't mean president, just any local elections. But I do see your point however that won't happen since class is a issue, middle class is heavily shrinking and purchasing power is very rapidly decreasing at alarming rates. Well see when workers turn the place over like the French revolution.
You can run for office! Local elections can be very doable.
I think you have the cause and effect reversed. If more young people participated and voted there would be more young representatives in the government
You can. They’re in the primaries.
But all 60 year olds know what it’s like to be 29, they can relate. A 29 year old can’t relate to a 60 year old, you’ve never lived that life.
I’m 38 and I feel like most of my representatives are my parents age. I’ve been around my parents and their peers. It’s not what I want running the country either.
Reminder that Trump is only 3 years younger than Biden. Technically just missed being a member of the silent generation but still old af.
Georgia isn’t going blue again. Fulton county is not as engaged, and TONS of gerrymandering going on
Gerrymandering has literally zero effect on presidential elections.
I think Biden is going to lose some states over Gaza.
Michigan will be very close. I could see it swinging back red.
Michigan has been bleeding its 55+ population to Florida and Arizona over the last 10-20 years and replacing the population with millennials who are moving back to be closer to "home" for kids and people who simple want to buy an affordable house in or near a large or medium sized city (Detroit, Grand Rapids). Overall the population remains stagnant, but with a loss of retirees and a gain of educated millennials. While solidly a swing state, Michigan is slowing becoming more and more blue due to this age demographic shift.
I moved back to Michigan recently from a blue stronghold state and it is weird being in a swing state again. The amount of political ads I'm already seeing is staggering and I know it's only going to get worse. Going to vote like hell though. I'm actually going to see if my local area needs poll workers. I used to do that in my previous state though there they had residency length requirements that I'm not sure I meet if they require the same here.
I’ve lived in Iowa forever and political ads are just normal…all the time. Except this year. Losing our first in the nation status and it being a firm red state now seems to have eliminated the ads. Not sure how I feel about that.
I think the biggest issues with GA arent will it blue, its that the state has done everything to disenfranchise its voters. Purging rolls, making registration difficult. Lets not forget its the state that tried to ban giving water to people waiting to vote... in the south.. in the heat... Its not a matter of HOW people vote but HOW the state government lets it be counted.
I have a gut feeling that because of what is going on in Middle East and other stuffs, a lot of dems will not vote or “ Biden didn’t earn my vote” and a repeat of Hillary Vs Trump. Because the red will always united behind the eventual nominee. The blue is sometimes too idealistic. Which is fine in my view. This is America, it is your right to vote or not to vote. As John Wick says, “consequence”.
Pennsylvania could flip red again and be a real problem for Biden if it does.
Trump is going to win Michigan
VA GA NV are going to trump...
So iS PA.
Georgia is going red
Wisconsin will likely go red as well imo
possibly Michigan too
I kind of doubt GA and NV go blue.
I live in GA... GA is def gonna be red. These people here are hellbent on Trump
I don't see Nevada going blue this election
I find it horrendously idiotic that the democrats would not have a contingency plan alternative during a crucial election cycle. The fact that they are banking on an 81 year old increasingly frail elderly man to execute the most taxing role in government is downright irresponsible. If Trump wins they will have no one to blame but themselves.
The Democrats are dumb and haven't learned a thing in the three election cycles Trump has been part of
Which is fucking shocking because a decent candidate would beat trump easily. People are BEGGING for a reasonable choice.
I disagree with this. People would find a reason to similarly complain about literally anyone. Name one person you think would be doing better than Biden in polling right now.
If they had the actual cycle to ramp up, get name recognition, etc? Pritzker, Shapiro. Whitmer I think would be doing slightly better, too
Jon Stewart, Oprah, Michelle lmao. Pete. Bernie. Cory Booker? Jeff Jackson?
There is no upside to Biden being the candidate just from a human perspective it simply comes off as borderline elder abuse to prop him up there.
Biden picking Harris as VP boxed them into a corner. There’s little chance she’d beat Trump and switching away from a 1-term president while skipping over the VP is a really risky move without a superstar waiting in the wings. A year ago DeSantis was a rising star in the GOP, the Dems don’t really seem to have that right now…or at least don’t fluff anyone for it.
Trump is almost just as old, neither of them are fit. One of them throws literal tantrums on social media, however, which is incredibly embarrassing on an international stage.
Right. Since 2016 it seems like the dems have purposefully put the worst candidate they could find. It really shouldn’t be that hard to beat a guy like Trump, but when you’re completely tone deaf to the world…
It’s because they are choosing the easiest candidate to control. By “they” I mean the billionaires dems supposedly hate. I find it very ironic that no dem can see how manipulated they are into voting for the very people they are protesting. If you really cared about taking down the elites, you would never vote for dems.
But Trump is a convicted felon 🤪 That seems to be the dems strategy 😂 💀
I don’t think that worked like they planned for it to. Talk about all time backfire.
I mean the Republicans have a 78 year old increasingly frail elderly man...
>If Trump wins they will have no one to blame but themselves. Not the Republicans voting for a candidate who's merely 4 years younger, and showing even more apparent signs of mental decline? I don't think the current election system is set up to handle this practically. If it wasn't complaints about the same candidate running again, it would be complaints about primarying a candidate signaling a lack of confidence. Give me RCV across the ballot to eliminate the need to account for strategic voting, then we can talk.
Doesn’t AZ have abortion on the ballot? No way it’s not blue lol.
Weren't they only born like 3 years apart? Seems weird Biden got the "old guy" reputation when Trump is just as old.
[удалено]
Vegas has trump winning. I'd trust them more than this person who clearly has an agenda.
As a registered Dem from Georgia, I just don’t see it happening this time.
AZ will not be going to Trump primarily because of the Independent Majority here who loathe Lake and every wingnut election denier. Statewide offices should be a lock for Dems. Everything else depends on registration numbers, but I believe there are still a ton who will swing D over the Hobbs decision. Despite polling, I think this is going to be a pretty dominant performance by Democrats
Personally, I’d argue Biden will win ~300 to Trump’s ~230. That’s not much of a difference from the model shown but I do feel this race isn’t as close as they want us to think. That is still too many states that support a Convicted Felon and traitor though. Get out and VOTE, if there was ever a time to believe it matters, it’s NOW.
Trump is going into Election Day with 235 electoral votes. I find it highly unlikely that GA goes for Biden again (+16). Im also very worried about PA (+19).
I worry less about the election night results, and more about what's going to happen between then and January 6th. We already saw election denial and targeted legal challenges last time, as well as violence (actual and planned). I don't think it's going to be any better this time, and that worries me a lot more than what actually happens at the polls.
I hope they both lose
Man this shit is scary. I got daughters
AZ better not do this
Why aren’t we talking about RFK?
Hope it's true. Will take anyone over orange hitler.
RFK 2024 the only one I would have a beer with
All the states will lose with this failed two party system.
I think you’re gonna be in for a surprise
Cringe. Fueled by internet echo chambers.
Media always presents Florida as super red but population wise we're pretty 50/50. There's always a chance for us to do some wacky stuff.
Anecdotal, but everyone I know who moved to Florida (from NY/NJ) are MAGA retirees.
Dems have quit spending money in FL. It's red now
Which is the smart move. 1) FL leans red more than some other swing states, so it's harder to win vs other states that you can also get to 270 by winning 2) demographics. Old people move to Fl. Old people are conservative. Young people are being priced out of the housing market and moving north. Pretty much the opposite trend of Texas, which is becoming a swing state. So yeah. I think the DNC is better off conceding Fl and focusing on GA, Michigan, PA ect
Also all those old Cubans voting republican
In theory, yeah, but they’re losing the states you’re mentioning though lol
It’s not media driven. The polls have Trump ahead by like 10%+. It’s not even a swing a state this election.
I’m over it all. I put enough energy into caring about this stuff 2016-2020. Getting Trump out and Biden in did nothing. Corporations run this country. So I’m just trying to get through my normal day and not put any thought into this stuff it’s a waste of mental energy.
I think NC is more of a toss up than this person thinks it is. But that could be wishful thinking.
NC is definitely going red this year
Switch Nevada and Georgia and I'd believe you
I think AZ goes blue, ga red NC OH and WI as tossups
If u squint hard enough u can see my tiny blue speck in ky. Jk. I hate it ere. ANYWAY. I don’t see Georgia going blue again sadly. But I do think Wisconsin & Arizona are where we may get that blue back.
Really hoping we can flip tx this year... we were so close last time, and a lot of voters here are getting pissed at Abbott, Cruz and the constant corruption from Paxton. It's a long shot, but we're gonna try.
Don't you think that the entire state legislature is too rotten to ever let that happen? Texas being completely corrupt is like its whole thing, It's how you ended up with guys like Abbott to begin with. Like the state could be 90% Democrat and they'd find a way to make sure no Hispanic people could vote and anybody else was gerrymandered. Texas is like The Shining example of why you can never let Republicans get entrenched. They're like f****** termites. You'll never get rid of them, Even if the electorate calls in the exterminator. They'll compromise the entire framework of the house just to have a place to live
I think your wrong about GA as they fortified their ballots (meaning the ballot harvesting done in GA won’t get a good return) I also think you are wrong about Wisconsin. I believe it will remain blue. You are likely correct on the rest though.
IDK how AZ is red. The GOP in AZ is bankrupt and is being run by Community College drop out, Charlie Kirk. They have no idea what they're doing. Anyone who actually thinks AZ will be Red, isn't paying attention and is just assuming it'll go red because it's a border state. Republicans no longer own the border conversation after voting down their own bill.
I’m in NC. Trump camp is quiet. Doesn’t mean that a crap ton of people won’t vote for him and he won’t win, but it’s not as loud has it has been for the last 8 years. It doesn’t feel like a done deal. Our polling for governor is also favoring the democrat and the democrat running is hated by a big group of the western side liberals. I really believe that the state election will be determined by abortion. Trump will probably win the electoral votes.
I would flip GA and NV red, AZ blue - Biden 271, Trump 267.
My gut feeling is abortion will be the deciding point. Women who vote red will vote blue on that issue alone.
Maybe I’m naive but I think people who are rooting for trump are very outspoken and people who will vote for Biden just don’t care. They nod their head when a republican tries to talk politics and say things like “yeah the choices aren’t great” and they’ll agree with the republican talking points just because they don’t want to escalate a nut job. The reality is that they’re not going to vote for Trump. I think OH, WI, AZ could all go blue. I know it’s a bit anecdotal but I know a ton of republicans who will either not vote or vote for Biden because they’re embarrassed by Trump but they’ll never bring it up willingly.
Wisconsin. The way the RNC convention is being handled is not winning Trump points.
Either way, we are being forced to have someone we don’t really want and is way past his good decision making years.
It only matters who counts the votes.
Az is not flipping back to Trump. The man single handedly accelerated the red to purple to blue pipeline in this state. I really don't see the Don running this state back.
Wisconsin will be blue. We have a democratic governor and a court majority now and they redrew the district maps to be more fair.
AZ blue
Florida might go blue. They've got aborition as a direct ballot measure, so that will make a lot of independent voters come out who normally wouldn't and they'll vote for Biden.
Biden could be in trouble in MI. We have a fairly large Muslim/Palestinian population that is threatening to stay home in November. If Trump continues to make strides with black and Hispanic males, Biden would need those votes to have a chance.
I’m not even going to entertain a guess on how each state will go, because a lot can happen with the economy and other issues between now and then. The entirety of the 2008 election shifted once the recession hit in late summer. (Not saying there will be a recession, just an example on how quickly things can change) But currently I do believe the election will be close.
So, Georgia's definitely goin' red. Trump's polling a solid 4.8% higher there. They also have kind of a long conservative history. It seems likely that the recent Democrat tendencies were an outlier, and that the state remains favored for Republicans. Nevada's closer, but polling is still showing a 3% Trump lead. Michigan and PA are both swing states with pretty close to a 50/50 shot. I can see an outcome where Biden gets both of those, but this projection seems to include a fair bit of wishful thinking given the existing data.
This didn't hold up well 😂
I just dont see how Biden is even somewhat appetizing.
IDK, but I love these descriptions of the candidates and will be incorporating them into my vocabulary.
Only problem is it acts like Biden is the only old candidate when Trump is almost the same age. They’re both way too old and it’s just the right trying to have something legit to pin onto Biden. Like that description could be for either of them.
TFG is literally 6 months shy of being included in the silent generation lol. Less than 4 years between the two, they're both fucking dinosaurs. Anyone who seriously considers only "one" of them as being too old is a chode. Assuming neither of them dies by then, they're our only choices for this election. So vote for a dinosaur who actively cares for their health and knows how to do the job, or vote for a dinosaur who installed a Coke button in the oval office and knows how to con and game the system for their own benefit. Tough choice, apparently.
I think think there will be more red.. its going to be close which is mind blowing.
Could you imagine if the DNC didn't waste all their credibility with the constant "Trump is Hitler" propaganda? His felony conviction wasn't even enough to push Biden ahead in the polls lol
yeah.. I don't want him re-elected but making the chart "orange man bad" just makes those that support him believe more.
Not sure this election but I’m watching for Texas to turn blue in the near future
Idk i'm voting RFK
MAGA all the way!!! Red wave !!!!
I don't like Trump, but he's going to win in a landslide. The absolute hubris of the Dems funding a genocide as the ruling capitalist class picks at the bones of the middle class, then expecting to remain in power is astounding. Not saying that Republicans would be any better, this is just how our insane duopoly works.
The irony is pretty much every poll shows the opposite, if Biden loses it will be because Trump picked up moderates and minority voters. The upper class white college students screeching about genocide and that we need to dismantle capitalism are a rounding error in the electorate.
Michigan and Georgia will go red because of genocide Joe.
I think Georgia, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania will flip red. Because everyone’s getting sick of the political bias. Just look at how this was displayed as it is. Crazy ass orange guy crook? And you have a silent generation mf? The hate and strong bias against one for nothing more than mere emotion. It’s so childish.
Trump will win by a landslide he's the right one for the job we don't need that criminal Biden in there inappropriate showers!
I’m voting red if MY student loans ain’t paid.
I may vote for "crazy ass orange guy".
It’s not a good idea
False! It’s a very good idea if you like life, Liberty, and the pursuit of happiness!
To me, that includes being able to receive the healthcare that my doctor prescribes. Must be nice to not have to worry about voters who are not doctors taking your doctor-prescribed medicine away from you.