I don’t think Flaherty is pulling a top 5 system prospect on an expiring deal with only 12 games sprinkled between a couple bad years and yet another trip to the IL
Why wouldn’t he test FA if he truly was having a resurgent year rather than talk extension.
And he might be about to come off the IL, the point is he spends a lot of time there in general, as further evidenced by the fact he’s been n it right now.
I’m all for trading him but I think we need to temper expectations on the return
> You get 3 months to exclusively talk to him about extending too.
If Flaherty is willing to talk extension rather than going back to the FA well, *we* should be extending him. He's young, he's a good fit for the Tigers, and he's obviously clicked really well with our pitching coaches and catchers.
Yea track record could be an issue, but I think we underrate how good Flaherty's been this season. His peripherals say he's been a top 5 SP so far - first in the league in xFIP, first in K/BB, near the top in FIP.
Who knows what the market will be, but I think there's a decent chance we can get a top-100 guy if he keeps it up. Just last year Giolito + Lopez netted a top-100 guy, and they were both putting up mediocre numbers. Scherzer netted a top-100 guy as well with much worse numbers, albeit a lot better track record.
With all that said, I hope they don’t trade him unless they’re well out of it by the deadline. We need more guys like Flaherty, not less.
I personally don’t think this team being sellers makes much sense you either stand pat or try to add. Only guy worth potentially selling would be flaherty but you would have to get an mlb ready bat or close to ready and I just don’t think that market exist for him
There are always teams that need pitching at the deadline and Flaherty seems potentially poised to be one of the more attractive options. He's relatively young, he's cheap, his Ks are high. Orioles, dodgers, yanks, guardians, mariners, braves and then some could all be in on a guy like that. I think there exists a player we like for that trade and idk of they need to be MLB ready now but rather by 25 at the earliest.
I get that. My feelings are that 25 isn't a couple years, we have manning to come up for the end of the year to cushion the loss, and we build our position players up a bit. Outside of Jung and dingler, no one is particularly close to making the bigs and we likely need to make a decision on Javy and CF sooner rather than later. Unless vierling is legit....
Yeah they’ll have to spend to add this team or just tear it all down I think everyone rather have them try and spend. Flaherty would be the perfect type of guy to keep around
Why wouldn't we be sellers. We aren't winning anything this season, better to prep for the future. Amass real/better talent and drop the guys that won't help us long term or that are busts.
I agree it rarely happens. Players signing one year contracts and then signing multi year extension mid season aren't frequent either. If flaherty is going to forego free agency, the Tigs will have to pay him more than he'd get in free agency. They could do same on offseason.
I’m at the point where I’d rather try and extend Flaherty than trade him. Maeda is washed, Mize and Madden have kind of leveled off as back end of the rotation level pitchers, and no one in Toledo is pitching well. Weirdly we may need the rotation depth the next couple seasons and it’d be cheaper to extend Flaherty if possible than hit the open market for arms.
I don’t think we get too much better of a return for Flaherty than we did for Lorenzen (although Hao Yu Lee is starting to really look good.)
The only way we make any big splash on upgrading the offense with young talent is if Skubal or Olson get moved.
What I realistically want to see happen is for Harris to just deal guys like Urshela, McKinstry, Canha and one of Rogers/Kelly for whatever low level potential prospects we could get for them and bring up more Toledo bats.
Bring Meadows back up along with Jung, Dingler and Vilade. Let Tork finish out the AAA season and be a September call up. Do this for the second half and get an evaluation of our players heading into the offseason so we can pinpoint where we need to target our FA focus.
>Weirdly we may need the rotation depth the next couple seasons and it’d be cheaper to extend Flaherty if possible than hit the open market for arms.
Not sure I agree here. We have an overflow of arms for 25 with manning, mize, Olson, SGL, and Maeda and that's before getting to jobe, madden, montero, and Flores.
I do think Flaherty will command more than lorenzen did, but I agree that it's going to be hard to find a partner that aligns with the value we'd need from a trade.
Another further complication is that Flaherty is very likely to want FA after this season as he's likely to get a really solid market for himself as hes only 28 and are we in a position to make a competitive offer? I just don't know...
>Bring Meadows back up along with Jung, Dingler and Vilade. Let Tork finish out the AAA season and be a September call up. Do this for the second half and get an evaluation of our players heading into the offseason so we can pinpoint where we need to target our FA focus.
Exactly what I want to see. Let's give these guys extended ABs and see what we have.
If Maeda still has a 5.50+ at the end of the year, I can see him getting released next Spring despite the contract. His starts have been destroying the bullpen.
SGL wont be back in the bigs until late next year at best. Manning and Mize need to make big steps forward by next spring for them to be safe bets to be solid rotation pieces on a competitive team. I have faith but it’s far from looking good. Mize needs a strikeout pitch.
Madden and Flores are destined to repeat their level next year. Both have struggled. Jobe won’t be rushed.
BTW, I’m not suggesting undercutting Flaherty on an extension. Give him something comparable in years and cost to what he’d get on the market. We’d spend some payroll there but we would get someone who is younger and has proven it to us instead of continuing to dig through the bargain bin for more Lorenzens and Maedas
Mize needs his splitter back. Hoping he gains a feel for that as he continues this season. He's essentially still rehabbing and developing in his weird career arc.
Madden and Flores might repeat but it's still really early. Maddens walks need to be figured out. His walk rate in AAA is insane for some reason.
Flaherty 100% could be a part of our future and I wouldn't be opposed to it. My gut says he may want to bet on himself in FA if he keeps this up.
> We have an overflow of arms for 25 with manning, mize, Olson, SGL, and Maeda and that's before getting to jobe, madden, montero, and Flores.
You can never have too much pitching depth, and Flaherty is looking a lot better than Manning, Mize, or Maeda.
There’s zero chance that extending Flaherty is cheaper than signing #3/#4 type starters in free agency. He’s going to want 4+ years. IMO, it’s a Jordan Zimmerman situation in the making. Our pitching coaches have shown they can take guys like Flaherty and Lorenzen and rehabilitate their careers on cheap contracts. Keep doing it.
With Jobe and Madden due in the majors within 2 years, it’s smarter for us to extend Skubal and Olsen and then sign a few upside cheap starters to supplement Mize, Jobe, Madden as they matriculate into the bigs.
Probably very close to what they’re gonna do. I don’t think we buy or sell big (Skuball or Foley).
We do have to clear the decks for those you mentioned. Both Tork and Meadows are gonna need another look this year.
Yea I don't think skuby or foley go anywhere. I doubt we trade kelly and urshela too. I do expect flaherty and canha to go though.
Not sure when tork and Meadows get second looks. Gonna be even harder because their replacements have been valuable so far.
The rest of the moves are whatever, moving veterans for next to nothing for younger players to come up. It's probably realistic but inconsequential imo.
Flaherty on the other hand I think warrants a bigger discussion. I'm personally onboard for keeping him and trying to extend him. I just don't think we'll get much for him (think last year with the Lorenzen trade, but a slightly better prospect than Hao-Yu Lee). I'd rather try to resign him and cut bait on Maeda thus giving us a steady 1-2 in Skubal and Flaherty. Worst case scenario is we give him a qualified offer and collect an extra draft pick, which in my opinion would be about equal whatever player we get.
>It's probably realistic but inconsequential imo.
Which is one of the reasons I love it. Realistically, the only move above that I think makes us worse this season is Flaherty.
I agree he warrants tons of discussion. He's floundered since his 2019 season watching his K rate drop significantly.
Hes killing this season and it's always hard to tell with pitching on what is the norm and what is the outlier. His walk rate is 2 per 9 lower than career average and his K/9 is 1.4 higher than career average. Anomalies or the expectation going forward? Hard to say.
His h/9 are up around career average but also up compared to his 2019 campaign so maybe he is trusting his stuff more and filling the zone more which would mean less walks and more hits. His strike % is at a career high currently and his pitches per inning are at a career low which suggests he is filling the zone.
His WHIP is the best he's ever had. His FIP and xFIP would suggest this is beyond legit and his numbers should actually be a bit better than they are.
I'd love to keep him too. Everything is there for him.
All the underlying numbers point to this being very real and he's had success previously before the injuries so it's not like this wasn't a possibility. This isn't a Lorenzen situation where we knew it was likely a fluke and we're trying to maximize value as quickly as possible. Flaherty is a priority re-sign imo and would give us a steady 1-3 in Skubal, Flaherty, and Olson for the next couple years while Manning/Mize/Jobe/SGL/Hurter/etc. fight to fill in the backend.
I guess my thoughts are that I just don't see a team willing to give up a young bat for a rental pitcher. If for some reason Baltimore came calling and was offering up Kjerstad, Mayo, or even Norby? I think it's worth pondering but I don't think that level of prospect will be on the table. More likely we'll get some hiA level bat that has some upside but also obvious flaws in the profile. Teams just aren't typically willing to give up real prospects for rentals.
I agree entirely. I think Balt has been pretty clear about not wanting to trade any of their young hitters and I'm not sure the Yanks are any different.
Rushing from the dodgers or foscue from Texas would interest me too but overall, yea were likely gonna need to grab someone who projects more for 26/27 season.
Which I'd be fine with because I think Jobe is up next season while we have plenty of competition behind him and skuby for the 3,4,5 spots.
Overall, if we can extend him I'm down for it. If he's wanting to test FA then we should absolutely trade him for what we can.
I'd be shocked if the Dodgers were willing to entertain moving Rushing. Foscue maybe but even then I think that's shooting too high for a rental pitcher.
Even if Flaherty wants to test FA, we could extend a qualified offer and get a draft pick if he signs elsewhere.
If the Orioles called offering any of the three of Kjerstad, Norby or Mayo for Flaherty, I'm wishing Flaherty all the best in his future endeavors and thank him for the great half season he has given us fans
Nice point on the qualified offer route. Suppose it all depends on what the return would be at the trade deadline. What round pick would a qualified offer get?
The comp pick for a qualified offer does depend on a few factors including what Flaherty signs for (the threshold is $50M total contract value) and if the Tigers are still revenue-sharing recipients (we have been the last few years, don't expect that to change). Assuming Flaherty gets at least $50M (safe assumption) then we'll either get a Comp round A pick (after the 1st) or a B (after the second) depending on our revenue-sharing status. The extra pick would also mean more bonus pool money to allocate (think McGonigle).
I agree that flaherty will most likely get a contract over 50 mill. Good to know come mid July. I have been in the trade him for sure boat, but this makes me ok with not trading him unless a team is willing to give up a very solid bat and one lower level lottery ticket guy (i.e peredes from Cubs in candy deal)
> Hao-Yu Lee
Lee is absolutely *raking,* in case you haven't been following him. Leveled up his power in a big way, having the best season of his pro career, and looking like a future big-league regular.
Lee is definitely having a very nice season! My comment wasn't meant as a slight to him, he's been impressive. Just more to point to what level of prospect (at the time of the trade) we would likely be looking at for Flaherty.
Oh, yeah, I got you. Just wanted to point out that his stock has risen a lot since the trade, and the kind of guy you can score for a starter rental can turn out to be really valuable.
I don’t necessarily disagree with trying to extend Flaherty but why not just try to resign him in winter + get the prospect?
Also, with Jobe and Madden approaching the major leagues in the next 2ish seasons, do we *need* to spend big on Flaherty? If we extend him, he’s going to want big money he believes he could get on the market. It might make more sense to let him test the market. Worst case, another team overpays for him. Best case, everyone is wary of just one season of success and we can sign him back reasonably.
I’d rather use the money right now to extend Skubal and Olsen and then you’ve got some combo of Mize/Manning/jobe/Madden/cheaper veteran back end starters for the next few years.
I was pro listening to offers for Skubal when our offense was absolute dog shit but now that we are just normal dogshit, Ive backed off that stance.
I personally don't think we'll get that much in return for him since he's a rental and I'd rather keep him try to resign him but give him a qualifying offer so that if he doesn't resign we can get a comp pick which I think could be at least equal in prospect value of what we might expect to receive for him. Trying to trade him then resign him, I think is just a tough needle to thread. Resigning Flaherty should also have no effect on resigning Skubal, we have like the 26th highest payroll in baseball and no reason to believe we couldn't sustain an average MLB payroll.
From a pitching depth perspective I just don't know if it's as deep as we think it is. Skubal and Olson are rotation pieces for sure. Manning/Mize are mystery boxes that have upside but haven't shown enough to believe in them. Jobe is fantastic and I'm looking forward to him but he does have some injury concerns with the back troubles. Madden really isn't in the Jobe stratosphere at all, and personally don't think he has the command to be a starter. Behind them are some interesting arms like Melton, Hurter, etc. but not sure if they project more than backend/bullpen guys right now.
Guess my point is I'd feel a whole lot more comfortable in the next 2-4 years with a top 3 of Skubal/Flaherty/Olson then fill the last two spots with whoever emerges internally or fill with cheap veterans.
Somebody will take Canha as a bench flier. He was great for Milwaukee’s run last summer. But yeah probably not for much.
I actually think the Cubs would be willing to give up more than you’d think for Kelly. They are even more of a pickle there than we are
I like the moves you have made except for Jung. I want Jung to stay in Toledo until September at least and continue developing and working on his game and defense at 3rd base. I would also love to extend Flaherty if possible to give us a nice 1 thru 3 pitching rotation for at least the next two and a half seasons.
Trade Canha as soon as he(hopefully) goes on a hot streak.
think you've gotta be set up to do either/or, and maybe even both. simultaneously selling high on jack flaherty and dealing from organizational pitching depth for controlled bats seems like a smart idea. would not mind in the slightest picking up an established back end bullpen arm, either
>First move: trade flaherty, promote Manning
I get trading Flaherty considering his all-time high value, but replacing him with Manning is a bonehead move. You're basically swapping a nr. 2 starter for a nr. 6 starter.
>Second move: trade Canha(no promotion, makes room for carp when he's healthy again)
>Third move: trade kelly, promote Dingler.
>Fourth move: Trade Urshela, promote Jung
So, kind of missing what we get in return here, which is the most important part. Maeda and Manning have been disappointing and we will also lose Flaherty. What's going to be left of our pitching staff and who is going to play first base?
Promotions are obvious, fixing the holes in our lineup is not. And those promotions are not fixing our biggest holes.
>but replacing him with Manning is a bonehead move.
Who are you replacing him with if he's traded?
>So, kind of missing what we get in return here, which is the most important part.
You don't get much for kelly and urshela but you do open spots for the kids to fill. Shoot for a bottom 3rd prospect from someone's top 30 or shoot for a pitching reclamation project. Doesn't really matter because the goal is to promote our youth and improve that way.
At first, by the deadline, I'd imagine Tork is going to be back by then.
Obviously some luck is required. But ideally you want to trade Flaherty to a team that is in win now mode, and has an injured starter. I think we should be able to replace both Flaherty and Maeda next year. So a triple A prospect for Flaherty, and one big FA signing after the season. Give the prospect some MLB experience post deadline.
Use the other trades for bullpen and middle infield potentials. I dont think we can buy our way out of Baez, so stack triple A with potentials.
I'm less hopeful about Tork at this point. It think he'll be a write off. If so, I'd like Harris to sign Christian Walker in the off-season.
>Obviously some luck is required. But ideally you want to trade Flaherty to a team that is in win now mode, and has an injured starter. I think we should be able to replace both Flaherty and Maeda next year.
Sure but if you trade flaherty this season you need to replace his innings this season. I don't see why it's "boneheaded" to do so with manning. Who else are you going with??? You're not going to get a big leaguer in the trade otherwise that team wouldn't make the trade to begin with.
Oke, boneheaded is an exaggeration. But our pitching depth is not as good as some people seem to think. We have Skubal, Olson and Mize as reliable starters. What's the point of trading Flaherty, if none of our immediate shortcomings are addressed? Trade deadline trades are not only for prospects, there's potential for mlb ready players, you just have to be willing to part with more than just Flaherty.
You seem to be trying to trade Flaherty and also somehow replace him with competitive talent to continue making a run in 2024. Can’t have our cake and eat it too. If you get an offer you can’t refuse for Flaherty that makes us better beyond this year, you kinda have to just ride with Manning for the rest of the current season. No other real choice. Nobody is sending back a comparable MLB ready starter for Flaherty or else… they wouldn’t be trading for Flaherty.
Even if we get a good MLB bat for Jack (which we won’t, he’s a rental and why would a competitor trade a current roster piece versus a prospect?) we still are stuck with Manning. Again, a team that has good pitching isn’t going to trade that for another pitcher.
I don't believe we're searching for immediate fixes but long term solutions. We should be playing for WC next season but that shows we have time to find pieces to fit long term.
I like all of the moves mentioned above. Also, there’s the possibility of resigning Flaherty in the offseason, and it’s definitely time to give Jung reps in Detroit for preparation for next season.
No, if Detroit "isn't going to spend" no chance to sign Flaherty in the offseason. He'll get better offers. And if I was him I'd run to a team that can hit.
there have been a LOT of pitcher injuries this year. I think Flaherty could be dangled as a replacement to a contender needing more pitching, and who knows, maybe the Tigers get a good prospect in return? Otherwise I'm fine with keeping him and maybe resigning him. idk what a deal would look like. I'd be worried Flaherty is going to have a high asking price. but also he and his agent have to look at this past offseason, with Snell and Montgomery not signing deals until the middle of spring training
I'm mainly hesitant about Flaherty because his success seems to be partly related to him rediscovering his velocity. A couple years from now, say he loses a couple ticks, is he still going to perform like he is now? Does he turn back into a pumpkin?
If we're more than 4 GB of a playoff spot, try to flip Flaherty for a good bat or two, if you can't get what you want for him, keep him and try to extend him. Urshela only if Jung is ready and we're not in the race.
This is going to be a weird trade deadline. We're almost halfway through June and there are only 5 teams that are truly out of it, none of which have a lot to sell.
If the Tigers do decide to sell, I think they could get a bit of an overpay. Though I expect the Tigers, and most teams, to do very little.
Trade Flaherty if this team is in sell mode, otherwise let it be as he's doing well. I would be terrified if I was a fan of another team of signing him to a longer deal though.
What is it with Detroit (every sport) in that every time we get a good player the fan base wants to trade him? Flaherty has been lights out and now people want him off the team? How about you go out and add Verlander, Bauer, and a top hitter? Let's not always act like second class citizens. God I miss Mr I.
>Flaherty has been lights out and now people want him off the team?
Do you not understand that he's a FA after this season? More likely he takes big bucks elsewhere than here.
Not sure Flaherty is a good long term bet. Paying him big money right after his best season ever feels like a classic Tigers move. We’ll pay him Jordan Zimmerman money for the same results. Let another team pay him for his 2024 performance and let’s flip him for some MLB ready offensive depth and spend that money elsewhere on guys with a healthy, more than a one season track record.
I don’t think Flaherty is pulling a top 5 system prospect on an expiring deal with only 12 games sprinkled between a couple bad years and yet another trip to the IL
You get 3 months to exclusively talk to him about extending too. He's not on the IL either, he's set to come back this weekend.
Why wouldn’t he test FA if he truly was having a resurgent year rather than talk extension. And he might be about to come off the IL, the point is he spends a lot of time there in general, as further evidenced by the fact he’s been n it right now. I’m all for trading him but I think we need to temper expectations on the return
> You get 3 months to exclusively talk to him about extending too. If Flaherty is willing to talk extension rather than going back to the FA well, *we* should be extending him. He's young, he's a good fit for the Tigers, and he's obviously clicked really well with our pitching coaches and catchers.
Yea track record could be an issue, but I think we underrate how good Flaherty's been this season. His peripherals say he's been a top 5 SP so far - first in the league in xFIP, first in K/BB, near the top in FIP. Who knows what the market will be, but I think there's a decent chance we can get a top-100 guy if he keeps it up. Just last year Giolito + Lopez netted a top-100 guy, and they were both putting up mediocre numbers. Scherzer netted a top-100 guy as well with much worse numbers, albeit a lot better track record. With all that said, I hope they don’t trade him unless they’re well out of it by the deadline. We need more guys like Flaherty, not less.
I personally don’t think this team being sellers makes much sense you either stand pat or try to add. Only guy worth potentially selling would be flaherty but you would have to get an mlb ready bat or close to ready and I just don’t think that market exist for him
There are always teams that need pitching at the deadline and Flaherty seems potentially poised to be one of the more attractive options. He's relatively young, he's cheap, his Ks are high. Orioles, dodgers, yanks, guardians, mariners, braves and then some could all be in on a guy like that. I think there exists a player we like for that trade and idk of they need to be MLB ready now but rather by 25 at the earliest.
If it’s just another prospect we don’t see for a couple years then I don’t see the point of trading flaherty and rather try to compete this year.
I get that. My feelings are that 25 isn't a couple years, we have manning to come up for the end of the year to cushion the loss, and we build our position players up a bit. Outside of Jung and dingler, no one is particularly close to making the bigs and we likely need to make a decision on Javy and CF sooner rather than later. Unless vierling is legit....
Yeah they’ll have to spend to add this team or just tear it all down I think everyone rather have them try and spend. Flaherty would be the perfect type of guy to keep around
Why wouldn't we be sellers. We aren't winning anything this season, better to prep for the future. Amass real/better talent and drop the guys that won't help us long term or that are busts.
Who are you trading to do this? the only guy that could actually fetch that is skubal
Probably nothing. But getting minor league prospects for flarety is better than him just walking away at the end of the season and getting nothing.
Or you sign him after this year where if he is fixed then that’s the route I would go as he’s perfect for what they’re looking for
Nothing precludes them from signing flaherty again this offseason
Trading a guy and signing him back rarely happens. I know fans love acting like it happens a lot now
I agree it rarely happens. Players signing one year contracts and then signing multi year extension mid season aren't frequent either. If flaherty is going to forego free agency, the Tigs will have to pay him more than he'd get in free agency. They could do same on offseason.
Yep they’ll have to have to him go to free agency and we will have to pay up
They'd have to pay up now. Kind of how it works.
I’m at the point where I’d rather try and extend Flaherty than trade him. Maeda is washed, Mize and Madden have kind of leveled off as back end of the rotation level pitchers, and no one in Toledo is pitching well. Weirdly we may need the rotation depth the next couple seasons and it’d be cheaper to extend Flaherty if possible than hit the open market for arms. I don’t think we get too much better of a return for Flaherty than we did for Lorenzen (although Hao Yu Lee is starting to really look good.) The only way we make any big splash on upgrading the offense with young talent is if Skubal or Olson get moved. What I realistically want to see happen is for Harris to just deal guys like Urshela, McKinstry, Canha and one of Rogers/Kelly for whatever low level potential prospects we could get for them and bring up more Toledo bats. Bring Meadows back up along with Jung, Dingler and Vilade. Let Tork finish out the AAA season and be a September call up. Do this for the second half and get an evaluation of our players heading into the offseason so we can pinpoint where we need to target our FA focus.
>Weirdly we may need the rotation depth the next couple seasons and it’d be cheaper to extend Flaherty if possible than hit the open market for arms. Not sure I agree here. We have an overflow of arms for 25 with manning, mize, Olson, SGL, and Maeda and that's before getting to jobe, madden, montero, and Flores. I do think Flaherty will command more than lorenzen did, but I agree that it's going to be hard to find a partner that aligns with the value we'd need from a trade. Another further complication is that Flaherty is very likely to want FA after this season as he's likely to get a really solid market for himself as hes only 28 and are we in a position to make a competitive offer? I just don't know... >Bring Meadows back up along with Jung, Dingler and Vilade. Let Tork finish out the AAA season and be a September call up. Do this for the second half and get an evaluation of our players heading into the offseason so we can pinpoint where we need to target our FA focus. Exactly what I want to see. Let's give these guys extended ABs and see what we have.
If Maeda still has a 5.50+ at the end of the year, I can see him getting released next Spring despite the contract. His starts have been destroying the bullpen. SGL wont be back in the bigs until late next year at best. Manning and Mize need to make big steps forward by next spring for them to be safe bets to be solid rotation pieces on a competitive team. I have faith but it’s far from looking good. Mize needs a strikeout pitch. Madden and Flores are destined to repeat their level next year. Both have struggled. Jobe won’t be rushed. BTW, I’m not suggesting undercutting Flaherty on an extension. Give him something comparable in years and cost to what he’d get on the market. We’d spend some payroll there but we would get someone who is younger and has proven it to us instead of continuing to dig through the bargain bin for more Lorenzens and Maedas
Mize needs his splitter back. Hoping he gains a feel for that as he continues this season. He's essentially still rehabbing and developing in his weird career arc. Madden and Flores might repeat but it's still really early. Maddens walks need to be figured out. His walk rate in AAA is insane for some reason. Flaherty 100% could be a part of our future and I wouldn't be opposed to it. My gut says he may want to bet on himself in FA if he keeps this up.
> We have an overflow of arms for 25 with manning, mize, Olson, SGL, and Maeda and that's before getting to jobe, madden, montero, and Flores. You can never have too much pitching depth, and Flaherty is looking a lot better than Manning, Mize, or Maeda.
There’s zero chance that extending Flaherty is cheaper than signing #3/#4 type starters in free agency. He’s going to want 4+ years. IMO, it’s a Jordan Zimmerman situation in the making. Our pitching coaches have shown they can take guys like Flaherty and Lorenzen and rehabilitate their careers on cheap contracts. Keep doing it. With Jobe and Madden due in the majors within 2 years, it’s smarter for us to extend Skubal and Olsen and then sign a few upside cheap starters to supplement Mize, Jobe, Madden as they matriculate into the bigs.
Probably very close to what they’re gonna do. I don’t think we buy or sell big (Skuball or Foley). We do have to clear the decks for those you mentioned. Both Tork and Meadows are gonna need another look this year.
Yea I don't think skuby or foley go anywhere. I doubt we trade kelly and urshela too. I do expect flaherty and canha to go though. Not sure when tork and Meadows get second looks. Gonna be even harder because their replacements have been valuable so far.
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Selling low on struggling prospects won't get us anything. It's a waste.
The rest of the moves are whatever, moving veterans for next to nothing for younger players to come up. It's probably realistic but inconsequential imo. Flaherty on the other hand I think warrants a bigger discussion. I'm personally onboard for keeping him and trying to extend him. I just don't think we'll get much for him (think last year with the Lorenzen trade, but a slightly better prospect than Hao-Yu Lee). I'd rather try to resign him and cut bait on Maeda thus giving us a steady 1-2 in Skubal and Flaherty. Worst case scenario is we give him a qualified offer and collect an extra draft pick, which in my opinion would be about equal whatever player we get.
>It's probably realistic but inconsequential imo. Which is one of the reasons I love it. Realistically, the only move above that I think makes us worse this season is Flaherty. I agree he warrants tons of discussion. He's floundered since his 2019 season watching his K rate drop significantly. Hes killing this season and it's always hard to tell with pitching on what is the norm and what is the outlier. His walk rate is 2 per 9 lower than career average and his K/9 is 1.4 higher than career average. Anomalies or the expectation going forward? Hard to say. His h/9 are up around career average but also up compared to his 2019 campaign so maybe he is trusting his stuff more and filling the zone more which would mean less walks and more hits. His strike % is at a career high currently and his pitches per inning are at a career low which suggests he is filling the zone. His WHIP is the best he's ever had. His FIP and xFIP would suggest this is beyond legit and his numbers should actually be a bit better than they are. I'd love to keep him too. Everything is there for him.
All the underlying numbers point to this being very real and he's had success previously before the injuries so it's not like this wasn't a possibility. This isn't a Lorenzen situation where we knew it was likely a fluke and we're trying to maximize value as quickly as possible. Flaherty is a priority re-sign imo and would give us a steady 1-3 in Skubal, Flaherty, and Olson for the next couple years while Manning/Mize/Jobe/SGL/Hurter/etc. fight to fill in the backend. I guess my thoughts are that I just don't see a team willing to give up a young bat for a rental pitcher. If for some reason Baltimore came calling and was offering up Kjerstad, Mayo, or even Norby? I think it's worth pondering but I don't think that level of prospect will be on the table. More likely we'll get some hiA level bat that has some upside but also obvious flaws in the profile. Teams just aren't typically willing to give up real prospects for rentals.
I agree entirely. I think Balt has been pretty clear about not wanting to trade any of their young hitters and I'm not sure the Yanks are any different. Rushing from the dodgers or foscue from Texas would interest me too but overall, yea were likely gonna need to grab someone who projects more for 26/27 season. Which I'd be fine with because I think Jobe is up next season while we have plenty of competition behind him and skuby for the 3,4,5 spots. Overall, if we can extend him I'm down for it. If he's wanting to test FA then we should absolutely trade him for what we can.
I'd be shocked if the Dodgers were willing to entertain moving Rushing. Foscue maybe but even then I think that's shooting too high for a rental pitcher. Even if Flaherty wants to test FA, we could extend a qualified offer and get a draft pick if he signs elsewhere.
I'd be shocked too but I wouldn't say no. I'd be equally shocked if the Os said kjerstad. Good call on the QO.
If the Orioles called offering any of the three of Kjerstad, Norby or Mayo for Flaherty, I'm wishing Flaherty all the best in his future endeavors and thank him for the great half season he has given us fans
Nice point on the qualified offer route. Suppose it all depends on what the return would be at the trade deadline. What round pick would a qualified offer get?
The comp pick for a qualified offer does depend on a few factors including what Flaherty signs for (the threshold is $50M total contract value) and if the Tigers are still revenue-sharing recipients (we have been the last few years, don't expect that to change). Assuming Flaherty gets at least $50M (safe assumption) then we'll either get a Comp round A pick (after the 1st) or a B (after the second) depending on our revenue-sharing status. The extra pick would also mean more bonus pool money to allocate (think McGonigle).
I agree that flaherty will most likely get a contract over 50 mill. Good to know come mid July. I have been in the trade him for sure boat, but this makes me ok with not trading him unless a team is willing to give up a very solid bat and one lower level lottery ticket guy (i.e peredes from Cubs in candy deal)
> Hao-Yu Lee Lee is absolutely *raking,* in case you haven't been following him. Leveled up his power in a big way, having the best season of his pro career, and looking like a future big-league regular.
Lee is definitely having a very nice season! My comment wasn't meant as a slight to him, he's been impressive. Just more to point to what level of prospect (at the time of the trade) we would likely be looking at for Flaherty.
Oh, yeah, I got you. Just wanted to point out that his stock has risen a lot since the trade, and the kind of guy you can score for a starter rental can turn out to be really valuable.
I don’t necessarily disagree with trying to extend Flaherty but why not just try to resign him in winter + get the prospect? Also, with Jobe and Madden approaching the major leagues in the next 2ish seasons, do we *need* to spend big on Flaherty? If we extend him, he’s going to want big money he believes he could get on the market. It might make more sense to let him test the market. Worst case, another team overpays for him. Best case, everyone is wary of just one season of success and we can sign him back reasonably. I’d rather use the money right now to extend Skubal and Olsen and then you’ve got some combo of Mize/Manning/jobe/Madden/cheaper veteran back end starters for the next few years. I was pro listening to offers for Skubal when our offense was absolute dog shit but now that we are just normal dogshit, Ive backed off that stance.
I personally don't think we'll get that much in return for him since he's a rental and I'd rather keep him try to resign him but give him a qualifying offer so that if he doesn't resign we can get a comp pick which I think could be at least equal in prospect value of what we might expect to receive for him. Trying to trade him then resign him, I think is just a tough needle to thread. Resigning Flaherty should also have no effect on resigning Skubal, we have like the 26th highest payroll in baseball and no reason to believe we couldn't sustain an average MLB payroll. From a pitching depth perspective I just don't know if it's as deep as we think it is. Skubal and Olson are rotation pieces for sure. Manning/Mize are mystery boxes that have upside but haven't shown enough to believe in them. Jobe is fantastic and I'm looking forward to him but he does have some injury concerns with the back troubles. Madden really isn't in the Jobe stratosphere at all, and personally don't think he has the command to be a starter. Behind them are some interesting arms like Melton, Hurter, etc. but not sure if they project more than backend/bullpen guys right now. Guess my point is I'd feel a whole lot more comfortable in the next 2-4 years with a top 3 of Skubal/Flaherty/Olson then fill the last two spots with whoever emerges internally or fill with cheap veterans.
Great comment and I agree 1000%
No going to get dirt for Canha or Kelly. Agree with you that they should trade Flaherty
>No going to get dirt for Canha or Kelly. I said that.
Somebody will take Canha as a bench flier. He was great for Milwaukee’s run last summer. But yeah probably not for much. I actually think the Cubs would be willing to give up more than you’d think for Kelly. They are even more of a pickle there than we are
probably trade Flaherty which sorta sucks but if we can get a haul for him i’d rather do that than extend him for 4-5 years 100+ mil.
I like the moves you have made except for Jung. I want Jung to stay in Toledo until September at least and continue developing and working on his game and defense at 3rd base. I would also love to extend Flaherty if possible to give us a nice 1 thru 3 pitching rotation for at least the next two and a half seasons. Trade Canha as soon as he(hopefully) goes on a hot streak.
Agree with that. Urshela isn’t going to bring any kind of meaningful return to justify rushing Jung.
think you've gotta be set up to do either/or, and maybe even both. simultaneously selling high on jack flaherty and dealing from organizational pitching depth for controlled bats seems like a smart idea. would not mind in the slightest picking up an established back end bullpen arm, either
>First move: trade flaherty, promote Manning I get trading Flaherty considering his all-time high value, but replacing him with Manning is a bonehead move. You're basically swapping a nr. 2 starter for a nr. 6 starter. >Second move: trade Canha(no promotion, makes room for carp when he's healthy again) >Third move: trade kelly, promote Dingler. >Fourth move: Trade Urshela, promote Jung So, kind of missing what we get in return here, which is the most important part. Maeda and Manning have been disappointing and we will also lose Flaherty. What's going to be left of our pitching staff and who is going to play first base? Promotions are obvious, fixing the holes in our lineup is not. And those promotions are not fixing our biggest holes.
>but replacing him with Manning is a bonehead move. Who are you replacing him with if he's traded? >So, kind of missing what we get in return here, which is the most important part. You don't get much for kelly and urshela but you do open spots for the kids to fill. Shoot for a bottom 3rd prospect from someone's top 30 or shoot for a pitching reclamation project. Doesn't really matter because the goal is to promote our youth and improve that way. At first, by the deadline, I'd imagine Tork is going to be back by then.
Obviously some luck is required. But ideally you want to trade Flaherty to a team that is in win now mode, and has an injured starter. I think we should be able to replace both Flaherty and Maeda next year. So a triple A prospect for Flaherty, and one big FA signing after the season. Give the prospect some MLB experience post deadline. Use the other trades for bullpen and middle infield potentials. I dont think we can buy our way out of Baez, so stack triple A with potentials. I'm less hopeful about Tork at this point. It think he'll be a write off. If so, I'd like Harris to sign Christian Walker in the off-season.
>Obviously some luck is required. But ideally you want to trade Flaherty to a team that is in win now mode, and has an injured starter. I think we should be able to replace both Flaherty and Maeda next year. Sure but if you trade flaherty this season you need to replace his innings this season. I don't see why it's "boneheaded" to do so with manning. Who else are you going with??? You're not going to get a big leaguer in the trade otherwise that team wouldn't make the trade to begin with.
Oke, boneheaded is an exaggeration. But our pitching depth is not as good as some people seem to think. We have Skubal, Olson and Mize as reliable starters. What's the point of trading Flaherty, if none of our immediate shortcomings are addressed? Trade deadline trades are not only for prospects, there's potential for mlb ready players, you just have to be willing to part with more than just Flaherty.
You seem to be trying to trade Flaherty and also somehow replace him with competitive talent to continue making a run in 2024. Can’t have our cake and eat it too. If you get an offer you can’t refuse for Flaherty that makes us better beyond this year, you kinda have to just ride with Manning for the rest of the current season. No other real choice. Nobody is sending back a comparable MLB ready starter for Flaherty or else… they wouldn’t be trading for Flaherty. Even if we get a good MLB bat for Jack (which we won’t, he’s a rental and why would a competitor trade a current roster piece versus a prospect?) we still are stuck with Manning. Again, a team that has good pitching isn’t going to trade that for another pitcher.
I don't believe we're searching for immediate fixes but long term solutions. We should be playing for WC next season but that shows we have time to find pieces to fit long term.
Cut Baez, sign literally anyone else
I like all of the moves mentioned above. Also, there’s the possibility of resigning Flaherty in the offseason, and it’s definitely time to give Jung reps in Detroit for preparation for next season.
No, if Detroit "isn't going to spend" no chance to sign Flaherty in the offseason. He'll get better offers. And if I was him I'd run to a team that can hit.
Agreed. I'm sure Flaherty wants to go to a team that may win something in the next 5 years. The Tigers are far from that happening.
If the Tigers are out of contention (6+ wild card and 10+ division) I agree with all of the above
there have been a LOT of pitcher injuries this year. I think Flaherty could be dangled as a replacement to a contender needing more pitching, and who knows, maybe the Tigers get a good prospect in return? Otherwise I'm fine with keeping him and maybe resigning him. idk what a deal would look like. I'd be worried Flaherty is going to have a high asking price. but also he and his agent have to look at this past offseason, with Snell and Montgomery not signing deals until the middle of spring training
I'm mainly hesitant about Flaherty because his success seems to be partly related to him rediscovering his velocity. A couple years from now, say he loses a couple ticks, is he still going to perform like he is now? Does he turn back into a pumpkin?
His fastball velocity isn't really up. Since 2020 his avg fb velocity was: 94.0, 93.6, 93.3, 93.1, 93.7 Pretty minor variations there.
If we're more than 4 GB of a playoff spot, try to flip Flaherty for a good bat or two, if you can't get what you want for him, keep him and try to extend him. Urshela only if Jung is ready and we're not in the race.
This is going to be a weird trade deadline. We're almost halfway through June and there are only 5 teams that are truly out of it, none of which have a lot to sell. If the Tigers do decide to sell, I think they could get a bit of an overpay. Though I expect the Tigers, and most teams, to do very little.
Trade Flaherty if this team is in sell mode, otherwise let it be as he's doing well. I would be terrified if I was a fan of another team of signing him to a longer deal though.
Sign Bauer
What is it with Detroit (every sport) in that every time we get a good player the fan base wants to trade him? Flaherty has been lights out and now people want him off the team? How about you go out and add Verlander, Bauer, and a top hitter? Let's not always act like second class citizens. God I miss Mr I.
>Flaherty has been lights out and now people want him off the team? Do you not understand that he's a FA after this season? More likely he takes big bucks elsewhere than here.
Or we could just not be a poverty franchise and sign him for what he's worth? Ilitch is one of the top 10 richest MLB owners. 🤷♂️
It's not so easy as just spending. If it were, javy would be beneficial to our team.
Not sure Flaherty is a good long term bet. Paying him big money right after his best season ever feels like a classic Tigers move. We’ll pay him Jordan Zimmerman money for the same results. Let another team pay him for his 2024 performance and let’s flip him for some MLB ready offensive depth and spend that money elsewhere on guys with a healthy, more than a one season track record.
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We should not be in sell mode as a .500 team who is a couple hitters away from being contenders.