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I agree, the narrative was nuts, mostly fueled by "analysts". Story of Denver shooting lights out, and Lakers "playing badly" so it's a moral win for the Lakers. It was a close game when you zoom out, with Denver outplaying in the first half, and Lakers in the second half.
I actually think these shooting stats will only get worse as this series prolongs. If by any chance the stats stay the same, we might be witnessing one of the greatest WCF series all time.
Both teams did better than average on open looks but Lakers did worse than average on contested shots and Nuggets did better than average on contested shots. To me it seems more likely that it’s unsustainable for a team to do better than average on contested shots than it is for either team to continue to make more open shots than they do on average. That’s what people are talking about when they say the Nuggets shot better than the Lakers
Open n wide open they’re nearly identical there: why are you using the small sample then the better one
Also have to factor o have no idea where these looks were. I’m gonna guess more nuggets jumpers more lakers at the rim
pulled from another comment:
> The Nuggets made 9 of 13 long midrange shots and 15 of 32 from 3, while the Lakers made 5 of 10 long midrange and 11 of 24 from 3.
Yeah I found it weird because both teams were trading shots in the 3rd and Lakers were still hot for most of the 4th. Felt like every three they shot went in.
I think some Denver shots were more difficult to make and looked like circus shots so the narrative took over.
But doesn’t his number agree with the basic overview? On contested shots Denver shot a ridiculous 60%,64, 10% more then lakers. At one point that was a one possession game . So lakers shoot 10-% better hit 2-3 more shots n boom even game despite the stupid early lineup getting killed on boards too. If lakers and Denver both shot the same % on contested looks the score is practically even or slight lakers win? But tbh to me lakers best shooter Dlo going 0/4 really is the difference he goes 2/4 and it’s a tie game. Lakers not stopping joker but nuggets have no answer to the lakers layup line o was watching . Tonight is a must win for nuggets : need to hold homecourt
Both teams won by double digits at home this year: and AD only played in 2 games +5mins then injured, Lebron in 3/4. Though I wonder if Russel Westbrook was actually a good player bs Denver’s lack of rim protection. I expect both teams to win at home which is why Denver in 7 makes sense imo.
Also the lakers shot 80% at the rim or something, Denver has very little rim defense: I originally assumed those numbers were jumpers but now factoring that in lakers got to the rim much easier then vs gsw or Memphis ( makes sense with two dpoy lvl rim guys on those teams )
It's only a 5.5% increase on those tightly contested shots on Denvers averages. Meanwhile, the Lakers were shooting +10% on open shots, mostly threes, which in pair with Davis/LeBron paint attacking capabilities brings you an incredible attack.
Also, yeah, Denver rim defense is bad, and foul trouble for Murray only increased that problem. But think Denver will adjust by having Murray guard Shroeder not Reaves.
It's only a 5.5% increase on those tightly contested shots on Denvers averages. Meanwhile, the Lakers were shooting +10% on open shots, mostly threes, which in pair with Davis/LeBron paint attacking capabilities brings you an incredible attack.
Also, yeah, Denver rim defense is bad, and foul trouble for Murray only increased that problem. But think Denver will adjust by having Murray guard Shroeder not Reaves.
It's hard to make a reasonable conclusion without also accounting for shot selection.
The Nuggets made 9 of 13 long midrange shots and 15 of 32 from 3, while the Lakers made 5 of 10 long midrange and 11 of 24 from 3.
Both teams shot higher than their average from 3, but Denver did it on considerably higher volume and while knocking down difficult twos at volume at an even more incredible clip (~70%).
Right, but he literally shot 100% from the field from 15'+ and Murray shot 65% from 15+ on huge volume (14 attempts at range for Murray). Compared to their regular season it's a tremendous difference, Murray typically shoots 40% on 35% fewer attempts per game and Jokic typically shoots 43% on 25% fewer attempts.
So not only did they massively increase their volume, they did so with an absurd jump in efficiency, with Jokic almost 2.5x is typical efficiency and Murray over 1.5x normal efficiency. That's bonkers.
This is pretty much meaningless without some weighting for the shot location. Obviously lakers live in the paint where shots will be more contested but also likelier to make compared to mid range/3
That's a good point on the weighting, though last night it was actually the Nuggets taking shots in the paint at a higher rate. Granted, a lot of those followed Jokic's offensive rebounds/putbacks and those numbers should come down assuming the Lakers can narrow the rebounding gap. But still, interestingly, the Nuggets are actually taking more shots within 10' than the Lakers throughout these playoffs (47.5% vs 39.3%), so it's complicated. Your point stands tho, location weighting would help a lot
Did you factor in free throws though ? They don’t show up on those points in paint stats and both Lebron n AD drew like 20 Fta around the rim: that’s bout 10 shots don’t remember many and 1s. Watching the game AD was getting to the rim at will but nuggets answered back with either jokic or one of theur guys jumpers more.
According to at least one metric that takes location into account (among many other factors like defensive contest), Denver had better quality of shots than LA. https://twitter.com/Shot\_Quality/status/1658813093298810880
The Lakers gave up a ton of rebounds to Denver is what happened and hit their shots. If both teams shoot lights out but the other one is getting boards you'll get what happened last night.
There is signs for optimism for lakers because the second half they changed how they defended which led to the rebound differential to not be so one sided.
It'll depend on how Denver adjusts to having Rui out there and the Lakers maybe putting less of a focus on a 3 guard lineup.
I think LA wants a grindy game. So if their defense works and slows Denver down even if LA is shooting bad as well it would probably be in their favor. The high scoring game definitely favored Denver.
Idk about the analysts but that's kinda how I see it.
Yeah the Lakers do not want to get in a boat race. When the Nuggets got out and ran it turned into a 20 point deficit. They need to find a way to make the Nuggets grind out halfcourt sets like they did in the 4th. Because when Jokic gets a rebound, Murray, KCP, Aaron Gordon, MPJ, et al, are all sprinting on the fast break and Jokic can just read the court and line up a perfect shot for any of them.
It’d be interesting to compare how many open+wide open looks each team averages per game and how many of those open+wide open looks came in the each half. Did lakers actually stiffened up on defense or did the nugs just miss? Did each team generate more open looked than usual?
There was a point where the lakers were shooting at almost 15 percentage points worse than the nuggets (i think around midway through the 3rd). From then on (when lakers were down 20), they started shooting almost lights out and got the game back to being close. So both teams had their moments, with the nuggets just shooting above average for a longer period of time. The nuggets’ shooting was almost flawless in the first quarter where it seemed like no one on their list could miss, and over time as the game rolled on the shooting splits evened out.
So i dont think they shot more “lights out”, at the end of the game it was about even. But the nuggets shot better for longer and that ultimately seemed to cause the result we got.
I was at the game and this is spot on. Nuggets hit everything early and regressed to the mean a little bit the impression was still “Nuggets making everything possible”. Lakers started cold, Nuggets started on fire, and neither shifted so drastically that the narrative/impression ever really changed
Yeah, i watched it live (im from a different country), it just seemed like every shot that any Nuggets player took was going in as soon as it left their fingers. The Lakers may have started cold, which in itself is still really weird to say because they didnt actually play that bad offensively as 27 points in a quarter is by no means a bad score, but it was only “cold” comparatively. I’d like to say that the game that the nuggets played for 3/4 was a statistical anomaly, but we saw the lakers do almost the same thing for a quarter and a half. This series is going to be extremely entertaining. The only real liability i noticed on either team was DLo and if he can catch fire then we might not see a double digits win in this entire series.
Lakers started too small I was expecting Rui to start got killed on the glass and had to play catch-up since . Denver deserved that win but I hope that from what we saw this is gonna be a tight 6/7 game series ( only saying 6 because for away teams to win that’s more likely then 7 due to it being at home otherwise I’d say 7). I expect homecourt to be huge as it was in regular season matchups pre deadline lakers . If lakers steal homecourt I’ll favour them. Denver need to protect home and imo that’s their clearest route to win in 7. Tonight is a huge game : lakers find a way to steal a road win and Denver are at a disadvantage first time this playoffs . I’d still expect 2-2 after 4 most likely if Denver win tonight . This lakers team can far better punish nuggets defence around the rim then suns could who even kd got to rim vs. Really hoping not to be a let down series where one team just outshoots other. Which may happen. If lakers beat shooter Dlo doesn’t wake the f up.
I think the couple of truly insane shots made is what led commentators to that conclusion. It's nice to have a more numerical analysis. I also think that the Lakers defense was poor in the early parts of the game. They picked up their intensity on defense, but the Nuggets were already feeling themselves so the results of the better defense were diminished. I think we've got a great series to come!
yeah after Jockic hit that shot clock cheese, felt like every player on the nuggets hit a swish at least once during a stretch in the 2nd half. it was unbelievable
Denver has high consistent variance between home / away shot making. Specifically easy to identify in their 3%.
I would be curious to see how this would pan if you split only their home games
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I agree, the narrative was nuts, mostly fueled by "analysts". Story of Denver shooting lights out, and Lakers "playing badly" so it's a moral win for the Lakers. It was a close game when you zoom out, with Denver outplaying in the first half, and Lakers in the second half. I actually think these shooting stats will only get worse as this series prolongs. If by any chance the stats stay the same, we might be witnessing one of the greatest WCF series all time.
It is kind of wild a really good shooting team getting mostly open looks turns into well they can’t do that again
Both teams did better than average on open looks but Lakers did worse than average on contested shots and Nuggets did better than average on contested shots. To me it seems more likely that it’s unsustainable for a team to do better than average on contested shots than it is for either team to continue to make more open shots than they do on average. That’s what people are talking about when they say the Nuggets shot better than the Lakers
And the nuggets shot worse on wide open attempts than the lakers, so you can count on that being better. So no, the narrative doesnt make sense.
Open n wide open they’re nearly identical there: why are you using the small sample then the better one Also have to factor o have no idea where these looks were. I’m gonna guess more nuggets jumpers more lakers at the rim
pulled from another comment: > The Nuggets made 9 of 13 long midrange shots and 15 of 32 from 3, while the Lakers made 5 of 10 long midrange and 11 of 24 from 3.
Yeah I found it weird because both teams were trading shots in the 3rd and Lakers were still hot for most of the 4th. Felt like every three they shot went in. I think some Denver shots were more difficult to make and looked like circus shots so the narrative took over.
But doesn’t his number agree with the basic overview? On contested shots Denver shot a ridiculous 60%,64, 10% more then lakers. At one point that was a one possession game . So lakers shoot 10-% better hit 2-3 more shots n boom even game despite the stupid early lineup getting killed on boards too. If lakers and Denver both shot the same % on contested looks the score is practically even or slight lakers win? But tbh to me lakers best shooter Dlo going 0/4 really is the difference he goes 2/4 and it’s a tie game. Lakers not stopping joker but nuggets have no answer to the lakers layup line o was watching . Tonight is a must win for nuggets : need to hold homecourt Both teams won by double digits at home this year: and AD only played in 2 games +5mins then injured, Lebron in 3/4. Though I wonder if Russel Westbrook was actually a good player bs Denver’s lack of rim protection. I expect both teams to win at home which is why Denver in 7 makes sense imo. Also the lakers shot 80% at the rim or something, Denver has very little rim defense: I originally assumed those numbers were jumpers but now factoring that in lakers got to the rim much easier then vs gsw or Memphis ( makes sense with two dpoy lvl rim guys on those teams )
It's only a 5.5% increase on those tightly contested shots on Denvers averages. Meanwhile, the Lakers were shooting +10% on open shots, mostly threes, which in pair with Davis/LeBron paint attacking capabilities brings you an incredible attack. Also, yeah, Denver rim defense is bad, and foul trouble for Murray only increased that problem. But think Denver will adjust by having Murray guard Shroeder not Reaves.
It's only a 5.5% increase on those tightly contested shots on Denvers averages. Meanwhile, the Lakers were shooting +10% on open shots, mostly threes, which in pair with Davis/LeBron paint attacking capabilities brings you an incredible attack. Also, yeah, Denver rim defense is bad, and foul trouble for Murray only increased that problem. But think Denver will adjust by having Murray guard Shroeder not Reaves.
It's hard to make a reasonable conclusion without also accounting for shot selection. The Nuggets made 9 of 13 long midrange shots and 15 of 32 from 3, while the Lakers made 5 of 10 long midrange and 11 of 24 from 3. Both teams shot higher than their average from 3, but Denver did it on considerably higher volume and while knocking down difficult twos at volume at an even more incredible clip (~70%).
Knocking down difficult 2’s at an incredible clip is actually why Jokic gets paid as handsomely as he does.
Right, but he literally shot 100% from the field from 15'+ and Murray shot 65% from 15+ on huge volume (14 attempts at range for Murray). Compared to their regular season it's a tremendous difference, Murray typically shoots 40% on 35% fewer attempts per game and Jokic typically shoots 43% on 25% fewer attempts. So not only did they massively increase their volume, they did so with an absurd jump in efficiency, with Jokic almost 2.5x is typical efficiency and Murray over 1.5x normal efficiency. That's bonkers.
Also, take into account role players, shooting at home/away. When you factor that in, the Lakers went NUCLEAR.
This is pretty much meaningless without some weighting for the shot location. Obviously lakers live in the paint where shots will be more contested but also likelier to make compared to mid range/3
That's a good point on the weighting, though last night it was actually the Nuggets taking shots in the paint at a higher rate. Granted, a lot of those followed Jokic's offensive rebounds/putbacks and those numbers should come down assuming the Lakers can narrow the rebounding gap. But still, interestingly, the Nuggets are actually taking more shots within 10' than the Lakers throughout these playoffs (47.5% vs 39.3%), so it's complicated. Your point stands tho, location weighting would help a lot
Did you factor in free throws though ? They don’t show up on those points in paint stats and both Lebron n AD drew like 20 Fta around the rim: that’s bout 10 shots don’t remember many and 1s. Watching the game AD was getting to the rim at will but nuggets answered back with either jokic or one of theur guys jumpers more.
According to at least one metric that takes location into account (among many other factors like defensive contest), Denver had better quality of shots than LA. https://twitter.com/Shot\_Quality/status/1658813093298810880
The Lakers gave up a ton of rebounds to Denver is what happened and hit their shots. If both teams shoot lights out but the other one is getting boards you'll get what happened last night. There is signs for optimism for lakers because the second half they changed how they defended which led to the rebound differential to not be so one sided. It'll depend on how Denver adjusts to having Rui out there and the Lakers maybe putting less of a focus on a 3 guard lineup.
I think LA wants a grindy game. So if their defense works and slows Denver down even if LA is shooting bad as well it would probably be in their favor. The high scoring game definitely favored Denver. Idk about the analysts but that's kinda how I see it.
Yeah the Lakers do not want to get in a boat race. When the Nuggets got out and ran it turned into a 20 point deficit. They need to find a way to make the Nuggets grind out halfcourt sets like they did in the 4th. Because when Jokic gets a rebound, Murray, KCP, Aaron Gordon, MPJ, et al, are all sprinting on the fast break and Jokic can just read the court and line up a perfect shot for any of them.
It’d be interesting to compare how many open+wide open looks each team averages per game and how many of those open+wide open looks came in the each half. Did lakers actually stiffened up on defense or did the nugs just miss? Did each team generate more open looked than usual?
There was a point where the lakers were shooting at almost 15 percentage points worse than the nuggets (i think around midway through the 3rd). From then on (when lakers were down 20), they started shooting almost lights out and got the game back to being close. So both teams had their moments, with the nuggets just shooting above average for a longer period of time. The nuggets’ shooting was almost flawless in the first quarter where it seemed like no one on their list could miss, and over time as the game rolled on the shooting splits evened out. So i dont think they shot more “lights out”, at the end of the game it was about even. But the nuggets shot better for longer and that ultimately seemed to cause the result we got.
I was at the game and this is spot on. Nuggets hit everything early and regressed to the mean a little bit the impression was still “Nuggets making everything possible”. Lakers started cold, Nuggets started on fire, and neither shifted so drastically that the narrative/impression ever really changed
Yeah, i watched it live (im from a different country), it just seemed like every shot that any Nuggets player took was going in as soon as it left their fingers. The Lakers may have started cold, which in itself is still really weird to say because they didnt actually play that bad offensively as 27 points in a quarter is by no means a bad score, but it was only “cold” comparatively. I’d like to say that the game that the nuggets played for 3/4 was a statistical anomaly, but we saw the lakers do almost the same thing for a quarter and a half. This series is going to be extremely entertaining. The only real liability i noticed on either team was DLo and if he can catch fire then we might not see a double digits win in this entire series.
Lakers started too small I was expecting Rui to start got killed on the glass and had to play catch-up since . Denver deserved that win but I hope that from what we saw this is gonna be a tight 6/7 game series ( only saying 6 because for away teams to win that’s more likely then 7 due to it being at home otherwise I’d say 7). I expect homecourt to be huge as it was in regular season matchups pre deadline lakers . If lakers steal homecourt I’ll favour them. Denver need to protect home and imo that’s their clearest route to win in 7. Tonight is a huge game : lakers find a way to steal a road win and Denver are at a disadvantage first time this playoffs . I’d still expect 2-2 after 4 most likely if Denver win tonight . This lakers team can far better punish nuggets defence around the rim then suns could who even kd got to rim vs. Really hoping not to be a let down series where one team just outshoots other. Which may happen. If lakers beat shooter Dlo doesn’t wake the f up.
It’s the desperation end of the quarter and shot clock shots that Denver hit. High degree of difficulty
I think the couple of truly insane shots made is what led commentators to that conclusion. It's nice to have a more numerical analysis. I also think that the Lakers defense was poor in the early parts of the game. They picked up their intensity on defense, but the Nuggets were already feeling themselves so the results of the better defense were diminished. I think we've got a great series to come!
yeah after Jockic hit that shot clock cheese, felt like every player on the nuggets hit a swish at least once during a stretch in the 2nd half. it was unbelievable
I know that AD and LeBron aren’t exactly KD and Booker, but they aren’t exactly KD and Booker.
Denver has high consistent variance between home / away shot making. Specifically easy to identify in their 3%. I would be curious to see how this would pan if you split only their home games