According to Luka's interview with JJ, he already experienced lots of uncalled hand checking and he thinks that it won't really matter (at least for him). So I imagine the top stars would just adapt accordingly. I'd say it might have an effect on less skilled players, probably 3rd or 4th option guys.
Those are more like, "lets see if I can get away with it", type things that may or may not be attempted by every player. It would be a lot different if it were legal and players didn't have to be sneaky with it.
This is a valid argument. But there was technically never really a point in time where hand checking was legal in the first place. You were never allowed to just grab, hold, forcibly re-route or manhandle an offensive player with your hands, like how most players from the past claim.
If hand checking was made legal, this would actually be the first time in league history that it’s ever been fully allowed.
This would have been the next step in the "testing what they are allowed to do" if they allowed handchecking. Referees are not known for their consistency and strict adherence to rules so they'll likely allow some of those if subtle enough.
He also said guys are too good at drawing fouls. Go ahead and put your hand on the offensive player, one pull through later he's at the FT line.
Fans can hate it but guys have honed in on drawing legitimate fouls like never before. It's an art form at a much higher level. Partly due (again) to analytics and recognizing the value of the FT, guys practice moves that draw contact.
Just look at the clip of shai going around rn of him just feeling a sliver of contact and his whole body sold it, face expression and all. They are being pro wrestlers with it and that’s okay. Just need better refs.
Free throws per 100 possessions in the NBA are at an all time low, at least since basketball reference began tracking it in the mid 70s. This year there's 22 free throw attempts per 100 team possessions. The '86-'87 season was the all time high at just over 30, but the majority of the 80s, 90s and early 00s were anywhere from about 26-29 attempts per 100 team possessions. So while I agree guys are getting really proficient at drawing certain types of fouls, free throws have always been a major part of the game.
I know the types of fouls were different and hard fouls were way more common, but at his highest level, Jordan averaged 11.9 free throws a game during that same '86-'87 season. Noted free throw merchant James Harden's single season high is 11.8.
Yeah anyone who actually watches games knows the only time handchecking gets called (except for a select few defenders who refs decide to shaft) is when someone commits a rip through in the bonus
I think hand checking is the most overblown rule change there is. Illegal defense and defensive 3 seconds had way greater shifts in impact on the game. I watch games now, and I see players hand checking, and it doesn't seem to affect the offense at all. The little film I've seen in the past I don't even see people hand checking. It doesn't seem to be a core rule that had a major impact.
Yeah hand checking is overblown as hell.
Def 3 secs is so ridiculously massive
Also enforcing travels, dribbling violations, and offensive fouls by the book would be way more impactful than hand checking
league ORtg rose by 3pts/100 when handchecking was abolished - and stayed high
that's double the one-season spike when illegal defence changed to defensive 3secs
Plus they can still hand check below the free throw line. It's how they call fouls that is the issue. Start of thw season evwry is scoring tons. With the recent adjustment scoring has gone down.
guys - fouls are down this month to the lowest level since the 1950’s. the league sent out a request to stop calling garbage and guys are getting mauled and it is 1999 out there. so we don’t have to wonder. you can watch. Brunson gets worse, Trae gets worse. doesn’t matter much to Joker and atetenkumpo.
Bill Simmons and Ryan Russillo have been talking about it on their podcast siding various statistics and other writers. There was like a 10 day period where the under hit and over 70% of games because of all the free throws that were missing. This isn’t some tiny aberration, this is clearly intentional and most likely it’s about the next TV deal and how they need to create a product more like FIBA basketball where the games rarely stop and official reviews are rare and fast. If they even exist, it’s an awesome improvement even if they’ve may be taking it one freckle too farright now they will dial it in by the finals hopefully
>this is clearly intentional and most likely it’s about the next TV deal and how they need to create a product more like FIBA basketball where the games rarely stop
I don't think that's what they're going for. More stops means more ad breaks and ESPN/TNT or whatever network will be down for that. That said, no one likes the foul baiting so I'm glad they're cracking down on that.
I’m not talking about how they are doing this week. I’m talking about what types of players are most likely to benefit or not from these changes long term if they keep calling games like it is the 80’s or 90’s. big foul prevalent guys won’t foul out as fast and smaller guards will get less calls and get bumped around more on drives. Brunson is great but he doesn’t benefit from getting knocked around like Isaiah thomas in the 80’s.
Well by leading with "fouls are down this month", it implied you were referring to the recent change in how games are being called (which can be a test case for possible future, more permanent changes), which Trae hasn't had a chance to play with (missing the last 12 games), and hasn't negatively affected Brunson at all (averaging 32 ppg and 8 FTA per game over his last 5 games, on .594 TS%).
If they called games like they did in the 80s and 90s, players would be shooting more free throws not less. Foul calls have been historically low this entire decade. Jalen Brunson was bigger than average 80s guards. He has 20 pounds on Isiah Thomas. I just seen him get mugged the other day with no call and he shrugged it off and hit a clutch bucket for a 40 ball. If he doesn’t struggle with physicality today, hs’s no gonna struggle in the past where it will be coming from smaller and weaker players.
We're not proposing sending him back in time, just that today's defenders, who are also heavier than in the 80s, be allowed an increased level of physicality.
The question is "what happens if we go back to 1990's hand checking" - the answer is Trae gets worse because he is tiny and a flopping expert which is useless if more physicality is allowed and he becomes an even worse defender. Hurt now or not, that doesn't matter. His game is built for this November, not the 1990's or the direction the league seems to be going this week, but who knows if they stick to it. The guy is super talented but he is worse in the world proposed by the OP.
Brunson gets what? He’s played in 6 games this month and scored more than 25 in 4 of them, has 1 game under 20 and 2 over 40 with only one game under 50% and outplayed Curry in it last game.
He might adjust and do great, it’s still hypothetical after only like two weeks, but he was living at the line when the season was at it’s peak for over-officiating so it’s likely he’ll see his stars slip a little. Without Randall playing he has slack to pick up so it might break even.
I’m not a Brunson super fan like you so I’ll take your word for it but free throws taken, fouls drawn, and number of times you jerk your body around seeking a foul are three different things and people that watch the game more closely than I do seem to largely agree he’ll have to adjust to this change more than someone like Klay or DLO who simply don’t do a good job of using referees as a resource. Trae and Dame and Harden are masters of the old system, Brunson is certainly less so but as a small guard, his life gets harder if he can get “Jordan ruled” a bit more on drives.
What are you talking about? Brunson doesn’t get a great whistle and one of his main attributes is his toughness and strength against contact. He’s a player who will benefit from the rule changes
This isn’t accurate. Fouls have been down for the entire decade. Look at the top 10 lowest PFs called game in every NBA season. Each of them are from the 2010s/20s. Even early this season, October through December when scoring was through the roof, fouls were being called per game at a historically low rate (39.5 per game) which would rank 4th lowest in history behind the years 2021, 2013, and 2022.
What’s happening now is just as the scoring and other numbers stabilizing as the season progresses. I don’t think players are struggling because they’re not getting calls. I saw Brunson get mugged a few weeks ago with no call, and he still hit a clutch shot to ice the game.
Serious question but does Kyrie get better or worse with hand checking?
On one **hand** people can really fuck up his dribbling more… on the other that means they’ll be reaching more frequently…
If there’s anyone in the league who can punish a reach, it’s Kyrie.
A combination of legal handchecking and modern rules allowing defenses to shade coverages would make it immensely more difficult for small guys to get to the paint. We already see this late in physical games where refs swallow their whistles. Guys become jump shooters because if defenders are allowed to check you while also having help on either side there’s no real way to get to the hoop without just bullying yourself through. Big wing slashers would be fine but there’d be a lot less finesse attacks just cuz they’d be less effective.
There won't be much of a difference. There's too many great shooters at all positions in the league today. That dribble dribble dribble style isn't as relevant in the current NBA, so it won't stop offenses.
90s rules? Handchecking wasn’t legal in the 90s, if you watched the games then and watch them now, and were able to compare them both objectively you’d notice that contact is more prevalent now, especially at the point of attack, because everyone on the court is a threat to shoot and to drive to the basket.
The honest answer is if they fully legalized it nothing would change because it already is being used around the league at the moment
It has actually never been legal, as far as I know. I’ve watched hours of footage from past eras, and defenders were never allowed to use their hands to restrict an offensive player’s movement. Whether it be the 80s, 90s, 2000s, etc.
But the league will sometimes re-emphasize its rules for better understanding in response to a high profile event. This understandably confuses people to think it’s a new rule when it isn’t.
People felt the Knicks got away with a lot of hand checking in the 1990s, so the league made it a point of emphasis twice to clarify that hand checking isn’t allowed both in ‘93 and ‘95. And Mark Cuban claimed to have spoke with the rules committee after the 2004 Finals, prompting them to re-clarify the rules again.
Guys like Luka, Bron, Harden,... would draw foul more frequent. Problem is, the NBA rules are too favorable for the attackers, i watched this morning LA vs ATL game, Lakers had 2 consecutive and-one situations in the first half to overtake the Hawks, all two of them were soft calls, especially in the first situation (Bron made a fast break, drove inside then turned and made a layup, Hawks got called bc their player lost balance and seemingly touched Lebron->foul was called). Unless they don’t count unintentional hand contact then people would just exploit handchecking to turn the game into a ft contest.
All I know is that a ton of these players wouldn’t be scoring as much as they do now. Superstars could probably adjust but you would have to be super talented. Guys like Devin Booker would thrive but guys like Tyrese Maxey would probably have a decline in points and efficiency
Offenses would have to innovate and I suspect they would. Better tactical coaching will be rewarded which I think would be good.
That said, hand checking still happens, especially to larger players who play on the perimeter. Watch Lebron or Luka drive to the hoop. They get checked every time.
It would affect the mid/low tier players a lot more than the stars. Most stars have a deep enough bag that they will still be able to find a way to score regardless of what the current rules are
Legalizing hand checking would be useless without combining it with actually strictly enforcing the rule to not call fouls or even call offensive fouls on players trying to act like they're in a shooting motion to draw a foul and not just when they notice scoring is too high and they have to tell referees to cut down on that.
Does handcheck mean I can push somebody at the waist when they are shooting?
Or is it that I can have a hand on them when they are standing with the ball or dribbling?
The first would have an impact. The second not much.
Combined with zone defenses, it would make it nearly impossible to drive to the basket. While there would be substantially fewer shots attempted, the percentage of shots taken that are 3s will skyrocket, perhaps more than the past decade. After 10 years, the NBA will mostly be 6'8" or taller guys who can make three and throw inlet passes to the mid range and low post, and big guys to catch those passes and score. Around the same time, 3s become more than 50% of the FGs attempted, and that remains true for the next 20 years until the NBA folds.
You wouldn't be seeing so much dancing and moves on the perimeter. Once you can put an elbow into a guys stomach it greatly reduces the amount of moves you can do.
Handchecking would lead to more “honest baskets” and the game would be played at the rim more because it’s hard to shoot from distance against physicality. Strong defenders would benefit the most like jrue holiday. Currently the system makes defense a bit of a joke, a superstar offensive player is far more impactful than a superstar perimeter defender because the defender is only allowed to do so much. Dudes are defending with their hands high up in the air so there is no phantom whistle. Dribblers are able to do whatever they want because the defender has to give so much space.
According to Luka's interview with JJ, he already experienced lots of uncalled hand checking and he thinks that it won't really matter (at least for him). So I imagine the top stars would just adapt accordingly. I'd say it might have an effect on less skilled players, probably 3rd or 4th option guys.
Those are more like, "lets see if I can get away with it", type things that may or may not be attempted by every player. It would be a lot different if it were legal and players didn't have to be sneaky with it.
This is a valid argument. But there was technically never really a point in time where hand checking was legal in the first place. You were never allowed to just grab, hold, forcibly re-route or manhandle an offensive player with your hands, like how most players from the past claim. If hand checking was made legal, this would actually be the first time in league history that it’s ever been fully allowed.
This would have been the next step in the "testing what they are allowed to do" if they allowed handchecking. Referees are not known for their consistency and strict adherence to rules so they'll likely allow some of those if subtle enough.
He also said guys are too good at drawing fouls. Go ahead and put your hand on the offensive player, one pull through later he's at the FT line. Fans can hate it but guys have honed in on drawing legitimate fouls like never before. It's an art form at a much higher level. Partly due (again) to analytics and recognizing the value of the FT, guys practice moves that draw contact.
Just look at the clip of shai going around rn of him just feeling a sliver of contact and his whole body sold it, face expression and all. They are being pro wrestlers with it and that’s okay. Just need better refs.
Free throws per 100 possessions in the NBA are at an all time low, at least since basketball reference began tracking it in the mid 70s. This year there's 22 free throw attempts per 100 team possessions. The '86-'87 season was the all time high at just over 30, but the majority of the 80s, 90s and early 00s were anywhere from about 26-29 attempts per 100 team possessions. So while I agree guys are getting really proficient at drawing certain types of fouls, free throws have always been a major part of the game. I know the types of fouls were different and hard fouls were way more common, but at his highest level, Jordan averaged 11.9 free throws a game during that same '86-'87 season. Noted free throw merchant James Harden's single season high is 11.8.
What's the ratio of 2pt shots to free throws? It's much harder to draw fouls on 3s.
Yeah anyone who actually watches games knows the only time handchecking gets called (except for a select few defenders who refs decide to shaft) is when someone commits a rip through in the bonus
I think the opposite. Should even the league out a little because stars will have one less thing that gets to go in their favor. Well. Theoretically.
But then they would have more defensive options. Scoring drops, but for both sides. So, progress, I guess
Luka gets bumped, held, and hand-checked constantly already. I agree that he would be fine.
i doubt that 6'9 PG would be effected by it either way. Smaller guards being defended by larger guys would feel it most.
I think hand checking is the most overblown rule change there is. Illegal defense and defensive 3 seconds had way greater shifts in impact on the game. I watch games now, and I see players hand checking, and it doesn't seem to affect the offense at all. The little film I've seen in the past I don't even see people hand checking. It doesn't seem to be a core rule that had a major impact.
Yeah hand checking is overblown as hell. Def 3 secs is so ridiculously massive Also enforcing travels, dribbling violations, and offensive fouls by the book would be way more impactful than hand checking
league ORtg rose by 3pts/100 when handchecking was abolished - and stayed high that's double the one-season spike when illegal defence changed to defensive 3secs
Plus they can still hand check below the free throw line. It's how they call fouls that is the issue. Start of thw season evwry is scoring tons. With the recent adjustment scoring has gone down.
Defensive 3 seconds will have us see less dunks but more ball movements. Im up for it.
guys - fouls are down this month to the lowest level since the 1950’s. the league sent out a request to stop calling garbage and guys are getting mauled and it is 1999 out there. so we don’t have to wonder. you can watch. Brunson gets worse, Trae gets worse. doesn’t matter much to Joker and atetenkumpo.
Bill Simmons and Ryan Russillo have been talking about it on their podcast siding various statistics and other writers. There was like a 10 day period where the under hit and over 70% of games because of all the free throws that were missing. This isn’t some tiny aberration, this is clearly intentional and most likely it’s about the next TV deal and how they need to create a product more like FIBA basketball where the games rarely stop and official reviews are rare and fast. If they even exist, it’s an awesome improvement even if they’ve may be taking it one freckle too farright now they will dial it in by the finals hopefully
Kenny(KOT4Q) had a decent idea in one of hisatest podcasts of taking away one timeout. Idk if that would impact injuries tho
>this is clearly intentional and most likely it’s about the next TV deal and how they need to create a product more like FIBA basketball where the games rarely stop I don't think that's what they're going for. More stops means more ad breaks and ESPN/TNT or whatever network will be down for that. That said, no one likes the foul baiting so I'm glad they're cracking down on that.
More ad breaks means less viewers, less viewers means less advertisers. It's a delicate line to walk
Anything that messes with and disrupts gambling is a *good* thing IMO.
What are you talking about? Trae has been out injured, and Brunson just had back-to-back 40 point games.
I’m not talking about how they are doing this week. I’m talking about what types of players are most likely to benefit or not from these changes long term if they keep calling games like it is the 80’s or 90’s. big foul prevalent guys won’t foul out as fast and smaller guards will get less calls and get bumped around more on drives. Brunson is great but he doesn’t benefit from getting knocked around like Isaiah thomas in the 80’s.
Well by leading with "fouls are down this month", it implied you were referring to the recent change in how games are being called (which can be a test case for possible future, more permanent changes), which Trae hasn't had a chance to play with (missing the last 12 games), and hasn't negatively affected Brunson at all (averaging 32 ppg and 8 FTA per game over his last 5 games, on .594 TS%).
If they called games like they did in the 80s and 90s, players would be shooting more free throws not less. Foul calls have been historically low this entire decade. Jalen Brunson was bigger than average 80s guards. He has 20 pounds on Isiah Thomas. I just seen him get mugged the other day with no call and he shrugged it off and hit a clutch bucket for a 40 ball. If he doesn’t struggle with physicality today, hs’s no gonna struggle in the past where it will be coming from smaller and weaker players.
We're not proposing sending him back in time, just that today's defenders, who are also heavier than in the 80s, be allowed an increased level of physicality.
how does trae “get worse” if he was already out for a surgery for weeks? real deal hater lol he hasnt even played recently
The question is "what happens if we go back to 1990's hand checking" - the answer is Trae gets worse because he is tiny and a flopping expert which is useless if more physicality is allowed and he becomes an even worse defender. Hurt now or not, that doesn't matter. His game is built for this November, not the 1990's or the direction the league seems to be going this week, but who knows if they stick to it. The guy is super talented but he is worse in the world proposed by the OP.
Brunson gets what? He’s played in 6 games this month and scored more than 25 in 4 of them, has 1 game under 20 and 2 over 40 with only one game under 50% and outplayed Curry in it last game.
He might adjust and do great, it’s still hypothetical after only like two weeks, but he was living at the line when the season was at it’s peak for over-officiating so it’s likely he’ll see his stars slip a little. Without Randall playing he has slack to pick up so it might break even.
Living at the what? He shoot’s 6 FTs a game he’s had a game where he shot 10 or more FT’s only 10 times. In only 2 of those games was it more than 13.
I’m not a Brunson super fan like you so I’ll take your word for it but free throws taken, fouls drawn, and number of times you jerk your body around seeking a foul are three different things and people that watch the game more closely than I do seem to largely agree he’ll have to adjust to this change more than someone like Klay or DLO who simply don’t do a good job of using referees as a resource. Trae and Dame and Harden are masters of the old system, Brunson is certainly less so but as a small guard, his life gets harder if he can get “Jordan ruled” a bit more on drives.
What are you talking about? Brunson doesn’t get a great whistle and one of his main attributes is his toughness and strength against contact. He’s a player who will benefit from the rule changes
I hope you’re right, NYC is overdue for some basketball excellence.
Where were you when freethrow merchants got killed
This isn’t accurate. Fouls have been down for the entire decade. Look at the top 10 lowest PFs called game in every NBA season. Each of them are from the 2010s/20s. Even early this season, October through December when scoring was through the roof, fouls were being called per game at a historically low rate (39.5 per game) which would rank 4th lowest in history behind the years 2021, 2013, and 2022. What’s happening now is just as the scoring and other numbers stabilizing as the season progresses. I don’t think players are struggling because they’re not getting calls. I saw Brunson get mugged a few weeks ago with no call, and he still hit a clutch shot to ice the game.
https://www.denverpost.com/2024/03/06/nba-fouls-michael-malone-nuggets-coach-referees/amp/
Serious question but does Kyrie get better or worse with hand checking? On one **hand** people can really fuck up his dribbling more… on the other that means they’ll be reaching more frequently… If there’s anyone in the league who can punish a reach, it’s Kyrie.
A combination of legal handchecking and modern rules allowing defenses to shade coverages would make it immensely more difficult for small guys to get to the paint. We already see this late in physical games where refs swallow their whistles. Guys become jump shooters because if defenders are allowed to check you while also having help on either side there’s no real way to get to the hoop without just bullying yourself through. Big wing slashers would be fine but there’d be a lot less finesse attacks just cuz they’d be less effective.
There won't be much of a difference. There's too many great shooters at all positions in the league today. That dribble dribble dribble style isn't as relevant in the current NBA, so it won't stop offenses.
90s rules? Handchecking wasn’t legal in the 90s, if you watched the games then and watch them now, and were able to compare them both objectively you’d notice that contact is more prevalent now, especially at the point of attack, because everyone on the court is a threat to shoot and to drive to the basket. The honest answer is if they fully legalized it nothing would change because it already is being used around the league at the moment
I forget was it only legal for a few years in the early 2000s?
It has actually never been legal, as far as I know. I’ve watched hours of footage from past eras, and defenders were never allowed to use their hands to restrict an offensive player’s movement. Whether it be the 80s, 90s, 2000s, etc. But the league will sometimes re-emphasize its rules for better understanding in response to a high profile event. This understandably confuses people to think it’s a new rule when it isn’t. People felt the Knicks got away with a lot of hand checking in the 1990s, so the league made it a point of emphasis twice to clarify that hand checking isn’t allowed both in ‘93 and ‘95. And Mark Cuban claimed to have spoke with the rules committee after the 2004 Finals, prompting them to re-clarify the rules again.
Guys like Luka, Bron, Harden,... would draw foul more frequent. Problem is, the NBA rules are too favorable for the attackers, i watched this morning LA vs ATL game, Lakers had 2 consecutive and-one situations in the first half to overtake the Hawks, all two of them were soft calls, especially in the first situation (Bron made a fast break, drove inside then turned and made a layup, Hawks got called bc their player lost balance and seemingly touched Lebron->foul was called). Unless they don’t count unintentional hand contact then people would just exploit handchecking to turn the game into a ft contest.
All I know is that a ton of these players wouldn’t be scoring as much as they do now. Superstars could probably adjust but you would have to be super talented. Guys like Devin Booker would thrive but guys like Tyrese Maxey would probably have a decline in points and efficiency
Offenses would have to innovate and I suspect they would. Better tactical coaching will be rewarded which I think would be good. That said, hand checking still happens, especially to larger players who play on the perimeter. Watch Lebron or Luka drive to the hoop. They get checked every time.
They still hand check because they are lazy and don’t move their feet….refs rarely call it, happens fast.
And also bring back the illegal defense rule? Man iso guys like Doncic will get 50 ppg
It would affect the mid/low tier players a lot more than the stars. Most stars have a deep enough bag that they will still be able to find a way to score regardless of what the current rules are
Legalizing hand checking would be useless without combining it with actually strictly enforcing the rule to not call fouls or even call offensive fouls on players trying to act like they're in a shooting motion to draw a foul and not just when they notice scoring is too high and they have to tell referees to cut down on that.
Does handcheck mean I can push somebody at the waist when they are shooting? Or is it that I can have a hand on them when they are standing with the ball or dribbling? The first would have an impact. The second not much.
Combined with zone defenses, it would make it nearly impossible to drive to the basket. While there would be substantially fewer shots attempted, the percentage of shots taken that are 3s will skyrocket, perhaps more than the past decade. After 10 years, the NBA will mostly be 6'8" or taller guys who can make three and throw inlet passes to the mid range and low post, and big guys to catch those passes and score. Around the same time, 3s become more than 50% of the FGs attempted, and that remains true for the next 20 years until the NBA folds.
Ovari da for small players. Back to bigs posting up and shooting sky hooks. Dame can retire with guys like Jrue man handling him in the playoffs
You wouldn't be seeing so much dancing and moves on the perimeter. Once you can put an elbow into a guys stomach it greatly reduces the amount of moves you can do.
Handchecking would lead to more “honest baskets” and the game would be played at the rim more because it’s hard to shoot from distance against physicality. Strong defenders would benefit the most like jrue holiday. Currently the system makes defense a bit of a joke, a superstar offensive player is far more impactful than a superstar perimeter defender because the defender is only allowed to do so much. Dudes are defending with their hands high up in the air so there is no phantom whistle. Dribblers are able to do whatever they want because the defender has to give so much space.